GCC Daily Market Update - 15 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 15 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,365.5 20,837.4 5,382.2 7,357.9 11,988.8 4,974.3 89,136.5 19,609.5 23,828.0 3,239.3 29,442.6 (8.0) (44.1) (12.4) (9.2) (1.2) (25.3) (293.2) (24.3) (1.7) 2.3 496.4 (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.5) (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 1.7 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.4 1.9 2.6 0.4 (0.1) 2.4 5.7 5.4 10.7 3.0 4.4 2.3 14.1 2.6 8.3 4.4 10.6 10,314.2 6,790.7 4,388.0 3,468.6 6,790.4 5,697.6 1,374.6 1,633.3 3,094.0 (47.2) 2.9 5.6 (32.6) 78.8 (18.2) 3.7 (10.4) (8.5) (0.5) 0.0 0.1 (0.9) 1.2 (0.3) 0.3 (0.6) (0.3) (3.6) (2.6) (3.6) (4.5) 0.1 (1.4) 1.8 (0.9) 0.4 (1.2) (5.8) (3.5) (1.8) 18.1 (1.5) 12.6 3.6 6.4 50.9 47.7 2.9 1,202.6 262.4 (0.4) (0.7) (0.1) (0.5) 0.8 (0.8) (1.4) (3.5) (0.0) 0.3 (7.1) (10.1) 6.2 (4.1) (3.0) (9.1) (9.6) (20.9) 4.4 4.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Most of the global indices fell on Tuesday. US equities indices ended in red with Energy stocks being the biggest drag, amidst drop in oil prices. Hospital operator’ shares came under pressure after US Congressional Budget Office forecasted that 14.0mn Americans would lose medical insurance by next year under the Republican proposal. Airline stocks continued its downward trajectory as an expected blizzard hit heavily populated North-Eastern region of US, grounding thousands of flights. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.3% as political and Brexit led uncertainties took precedence over fundamental drivers. In Asia, Nikkei fell 0.1% mainly due to stronger yen. Shanghai Composite ended in green benefitting from upbeat macroeconomic data, which showcased stability in the economy. GCC Gulf indices were mixed on Tuesday. Dubai’s benchmark index fell 0.9% as Shuaa Capital retreated 4.2%, as the euphoria over its merger eased and investors focused on the financial implication of the same. Airline stocks were among the losers, after IATA cited excess capacity as a constraint in the sectors profitability. Air Arabia plunged 6.7% as it went ex-dividend. Saudi Arabian main index rose marginally by 0.04%. Saudi Arabia Refineries was down 3.5% after it reported a full year loss of SAR 4.0mn for 2016. Kuwait’s index gained 1.2% as strong demand for the government’s debut international bond boosted investor confidence in the country. Qatar QE index continued its bearish trend falling 0.5% as domestic and Gulf institutions turned net sellers. The index witnessed massive sell-off particularly in Insurance, Banking, Consumer Goods and Transport counters. United Development tumbled 7.1% as it went ex-dividend while the Commercial Bank of Qatar, the most heavily traded stock however rose 2.5% for the day. Volumes rose with Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 74% of the total trades. Out of 39 stocks traded, 11 rose, 26 fell and 2 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.8 1.5 3.8 181.9 11,000 DSM 20 15.1 1.5 3.8 148.6 10,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.8 1.6 3.5 957.6 UAE (ADX) 12.5 1.4 5.6 38.5 UAE (DFM) 14.8 1.2 3.9 122.1 Kuwait (KSE) 22.9 1.3 3.5 164.7 Oman (MSM) 10.9 1.1 5.0 14.4 Bahrain (BAX) 9.0 0.8 4.6 2.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Commercial Bank Qsc Al Khalij Comm Bank Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar German Co Mazaya Qatar Real Est Top Losers Al Ahli Bank United Develop Co Islamic Holding Group Barwa Real Estate Co National Leasing Close Price 31.3 14.5 66.5 9.8 13.9 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.6 (3.8) (14.7) 31.4 (3.5) (3.5) (27.7) 4,511.5 38.0 (9.7) 21.9 12.2 (5.5) 6.2 15.7 (31.3) 6.1 NA 10.6 507.8 16.3 33.4 19.7 63.3 34.1 17.5 (3.7) (1.5) (1.7) (0.7) (0.3) (9.9) (7.1) (2.6) (2.0) (1.9) (10.2) (4.8) 3.8 2.6 13.9 (22.1) 0.1 10.6 (0.3) 541.1 11.2 (16.0) 81.9 86.5 (8.9) 1,184.0 8.3 2.6 922.3 171.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 20.0 10,314.2 10.0 10,000 9,500 19/Dec 2/Jan 16/Jan 30/Jan Index Volume (mn) 13/Feb 27/Feb 0.0 13/Mar Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,944.9 6,386.0 3,330.5 4,400.4 2,318.7 1,188.0 2,348.2 1D Change (%) (0.7) (0.5) 0.0 (0.9) (0.4) 0.3 (0.5) Buy (%) 25.0 28.9 53.8 7.0 39.2 46.2 Sell (%) 28.6 41.6 70.2 5.7 24.1 29.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 15 , 2017 to conduct a feasibility study into producing vehicles and parts in the Middle Eastern nation. This could prove to be a big step for the Kingdom in its efforts to diversify beyond oil exports. (Source: Arabian GLOBAL NEWS    US producer prices rose at a higher than expected pace of 0.3% MoM in February-17, as the cost of services such as hotel accommodation pushed higher and the YoY gain was the largest in nearly five years, pointing to steadily rising inflation pressures. (Source: Reuters)  Industrial production in the Eurozone rose by 0.9% MoM and 0.6% YoY in January-17. It also revised its figures for December-16, recording a smaller drop in output for that month. (Source: Morning Star) Central banks of Oman and Iran signed an MoU in areas of enhancing the banking relations between the two countries as well as for promoting trade exchange and investment. (Source: Times of Oman)  British Prime Minister Theresa May said that she would notify parliament later this month when she has triggered Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty to begin the formal Brexit process. (Source: Reuters) Oman government’s disinvestment of 49% stake in state-owned Muscat Electricity Distribution Company by way of an IPO is expected before June-17, a top-level official at the CMA said. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman based Galfar Engineering & Contracting Company said that the group’s consolidated losses have been revised to OMR 10.82mn for 2016, after adjusting an additional impairment of receivables of OMR 4.5mn and investment of OMR 2.0mn for another associate company in India. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain's GFH Financial Group may merge with Dubai based Shuaa Capital, GFH said in a statement to Bahrain bourse. A merger of the two firms would form a group with a market capitalization of about USD 2.5bn and interests ranging from retail and investment banking to broking and property development. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain based investment firm Arcapita bought a group of warehousing facilities in Dubai for about USD 150mn. The deal raises the firm’s total value of its logistics portfolio in the UAE to USD 250mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain based real-estate development company Seef Properties approved the distribution of a cash dividend of 14.0%, which is equivalent to BHD 6.44mn (USD 16.9mn) at BHD 0.014 per share to the shareholders for 2016. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait-based United Projects for Aviation Services Company reported earnings of KWD 8.4mn for 2016, up 24% YoY. Revenues rose 3.6% YoY to KWD 13.2mn for that period, driven by the company’s income generating projects in Kuwait. (Source: Kuwait Times)  Kuwait’s USD 8bn debut international bond issue traded close to Abu Dhabi bonds in the secondary market on Tuesday, suggesting the Gulf's gold standard for sovereign debt now has competition for investors' attention. (Source: Arabian Business)  Charlotte Hogg resigned as deputy governor of the Bank of England after MPs concluded she was not up to the role she was promoted into barely two weeks ago. (Source: Guardian)  Germany's consumer prices rose by 0.7% MoM and 2.2% YoY in February-17. The annual inflation rate was the highest since August12 and it was the first time since September-12 that it surpassed the ECB's price stability target of just under 2% for the euro zone as a whole. (Source: Nasdaq)  China issued a raft of upbeat data showing the economy got off to a strong start to 2017, supported by strong bank lending, a government infrastructure spree and a much-needed resurgence in private investment. (Source: Reuters)  China’s industrial production climbed 6.3% YoY in the first two months of this year, versus median estimate of 6.2% in Bloomberg economist survey. Retail sales advanced 9.5% YoY in the first two months, while fixed-asset investment increased 8.9%. (Source: Bloomberg)  China home sales remained resilient in the first two months of 2017, signaling policy makers are struggling to check the booming housing market. The value of new homes sold rose 23% YoY to CNY 912bn (USD 132bn) in January-17 and February-17. (Source: Bloomberg)  Turkey has a planned infrastructure investment of USD 70bn annually until 2030, and the public and private sectors will make a total infrastructure investment of USD 1tn in 10 years, according to Turkey's Sovereign Wealth Fund website. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS Business) QATAR NEWS   The UAE's non-oil exports rose 5.6% YoY to AED 128.7bn (USD 35.0bn) during 9M-16. The total value of the UAE’s foreign trade surged 2.8% YoY during 9M-16. (Source: WAM) The Qatar Stock Exchange is awaiting the approval of its shareholders to conduct an IPO of its own shares, the exchange's chief executive Rashid Ali al-Mansoori said. (Source: Arabian Business)   The profitability of airlines in the UAE is expected to fall in 2017 due to excess capacity and pressure on yields, the director-general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said. (Source: Arabian Qatar's stock market will list two ETFs in the next two months, the chief executive of the Qatar Financial Centre Authority said. (Source:  Business)  European software major, SAP said it plans to invest USD 200mn in the UAE over the next five years, underpinning objectives outlined by the UAE Vision 2021 plan to create economic diversity and jobs for youth. Reuters) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar First Bank recorded a net loss of QAR 265.6mn in 2016, mainly from the downward revision of the valuations of some of its investments across several markets. Despite the write-down of the investment book, the bank’s total assets didn’t decline and closed at almost QAR 6bn in 2016, mainly driven by the increase from financing assets. (Source: Gulf Times)  The successful USD 450mn debt sale, has taken Qatar Re beyond the USD 1bn capital mark; an important threshold to potential clients who make this a prerequisite, Gunther Saacke, the new CEO of Qatar Re said. (Source: Royal Gazette)  Qatar Media Corporation and Qatar Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Network signed a 3-year partnership agreement as a first stage which aims at creating a national CSR group with strategic partners to promote CSR in Qatar. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Securities & Investment Company UAE (Sico UAE) joined Nasdaq Dubai as a member to trade equities, in order to provide its clients with new investment opportunities on the region’s rapidly expanding international exchange. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia's CMA received enquiries from companies from the GCC, who are considering listing their stocks on the nation’s SME specific bourse, Nomu, the head of CMA’ IPO unit said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia will allot SAR 1.35bn to support small and medium enterprises in the tourism sector, Osama Al-Mubarak, the head of Kafala program said. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Toyota Motor Corp signed an MoU with a Saudi Arabian government Qatargas reached an agreement with Polish Oil and Gas Company to double the volume of its current LNG supplies to 2mn tons per annum. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 15 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0634 USD/QAR 3.6414 114.7500 EUR/QAR 3.8723 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2183 JPY/QAR 0.0317 USD/CHF 1.0102 GBP/QAR 4.4363 USD/CAD 1.3479 CHF/QAR 3.6046 AUD/USD 0.7559 CAD/QAR 2.7015 NZD/USD 0.6919 AUD/QAR 2.7525 USD/INR 65.3175 INR/QAR 0.0557 USD/TRY 3.7425 TRY/QAR 0.9730 USD/ZAR 13.1553 ZAR/QAR 0.2768 USD/BRL 3.1691 BRL/QAR 1.1490 FX Commentary The US dollar rose on Tuesday as a higher than expected rise in a US inflation gauge further reinforced already firm expectations of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. Political risks in Europe added to the dollar strength ahead of elections in Netherland. The dollar index climbed 0.4% against other major currencies. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart as the greenback strengthened, while the nation’s main export, oil, tumbled to a three-month low. The EUR, which hit a five-week high on Monday on expectations the ECB could wind down its stimulus program, fell 0.4% on dovish comments from ECB officials and caution ahead of the Dutch vote. The GBP slipped 0.5% amid worries about a possible second Scottish independence referendum and the triggering of Article 50, which will formally begin the negotiations that will take Britain out of the EU. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.68 0.88 0.91 1.13 1.82 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) QAIBOR 1.25 1.41 1.61 1.88 2.60 SAIBOR NA 0.93 1.31 1.74 2.21 EIBOR 0.50 0.69 0.98 1.41 2.10 BMIBOR 0.60 0.78 1.25 1.75 2.43 NA NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 0.0% 1.38% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 2.57% 2.23% 2.80% 1.71% 1.5% 1.03% -0.5% 2 Yrs 1.42% 1.61% 1.82% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current 2.25% Last Year 2.13% 2.42% 2.60% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.64% 5 Yrs Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 3.17% 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change US 25.9 0.8 Turkey 237.5 UK 29.0 (3.2) Brazil 233.8 (38.1) Germany 19.4 3.4 Egypt 333.2 (147.5) 62.4 34.5 Abu Dhabi 41.6 (21.9) 190.3 57.6 Bahrain 219.4 (164.7) France Italy 30 Yrs 3.54% 1.88% Source: Bloomberg 2.40% 3.19% 2.0% Source: Bloomberg 3.5% 2.84% Greece (8.3) 1,033.6 (72.5) Dubai 113.0 (32.0) Russia 174.9 (32.8) Qatar 64.7 (19.1) Japan 23.1 (8.4) Saudi Arabia 94.9 (45.4) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Jan F -- (0.80%) 21:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 15:30 US CPI MoM Mar 15th 1.00% 0.75% Feb 0.00% 0.60% 12:30 UK Jobless Claims Change 13:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Feb -- (42.4k) Feb F 1.60% 10:45 France CPI YoY 1.60% Feb F 1.20% 15:30 US 1.20% Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb 0.10% 0.40% 10th -- 3.30% Jan 4.80% 4.80% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 12:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Mar 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Mar 15 18.7 12:30 UK Claimant Count Rate Feb -- 2.10% 12:00 Italy Retail Sales MoM Jan 0.20% (0.50%) 15:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Feb 0.20% 0.30% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA (0.8) (199.2) (180.1) Tamdeen Real Estate Co Ksc Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 15 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.6 5.2 4.9 2.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.8 5.8 2.2 5.3 3.2 3.0 4.8 5.2 4.1 4.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.7 5.4 5.3 4.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.6 3.5 4.1 3.4 1.7 7.0 4.6 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.3 1.8 3.5 5.3 2.2 7.3 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 6.4 4.4 3.5 0.0 2.8 3.1 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.8 2.4 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.4 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.0 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.5 1.1 1.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 3.9 0.8 1.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 2.1 1.3 2.9 2.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 1.6 0.7 1.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.6 24.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.7 87.3 12.2 14.8 (H) (‫)م‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.9 13.2 10.8 22.4 11.7 43.2 7.1 17.6 35.7 15.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.5 12.7 6.7 13.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 77.6 23.3 18.3 15.6 26.8 10.5 10.9 21.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.7 19.3 17.1 15.7 18.8 8.3 22.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.2 15.5 14.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.4 14.7 12.6 13.0 12.9 14.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.6 2.3 11.7 10.0 0.7 8.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.3 36.1 56.5 70.1 21.6 70.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 22.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 35.2 46.9 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 30.8 16.9 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 26.5 Stock Price (QR) 33.4 31.3 22.3 31.5 63.3 14.5 41.0 17.5 9.3 99.5 68.6 144.5 9.5 100.0 83.0 174.9 24.4 135.3 9.8 10.4 64.5 85.2 14.5 28.0 113.9 14.5 219.2 59.8 42.7 78.9 20.5 18.3 72.0 42.9 66.5 34.1 15.4 13.9 19.7 101.0 8.9 51.5 21.6 80.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4