GCC Daily Market Update - 2 February

Transcription

1. February 2 , 2021 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,773.9 30,211.9 13,248.9 6,466.4 13,622.0 5,461.7 1,492.5 28,091.1 28,892.9 3,505.3 48,600.6 59.6 229.3 323.5 59.0 189.2 62.5 19.0 427.7 609.2 22.2 2,314.8 1.6 0.8 2.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.2 0.6 5.0 1.6 0.8 2.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.2 0.6 5.0 0.5 (1.3) 2.8 0.1 (0.7) (1.6) 1.1 2.4 6.1 0.9 1.8 10,473.6 8,648.4 5,634.8 2,696.4 5,759.0 3,650.2 1,466.4 556.8 5,546.7 0.1 (54.1) 41.3 42.3 (21.1) (3.0) 3.8 (2.0) 97.3 0.0 (0.6) 0.7 1.6 (0.4) (0.1) 0.3 (0.4) 1.8 0.0 (0.6) 0.7 1.6 (0.4) (0.1) 0.3 (0.4) 1.8 0.4 (0.5) 11.7 8.2 3.8 (0.2) (1.6) 1.4 2.1 56.4 53.6 2.9 1,860.8 354.6 0.5 1.4 0.3 13.5 (1.0) 0.8 2.6 11.2 0.7 (0.3) 1.8 3.6 11.1 0.7 (0.1) 9.8 11.5 12.2 (1.8) 1.0 Source: Bloomberg Global The US equity markets ended higher yesterday, led by gains in Technology stocks after steep sell-off last week. Further, a shift in retail trading towards silver led to gains in Mining stocks. The S&P 500 ended higher by 1.6%. The European markets ended higher yesterday, due to better than expected manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone for January-20. Further, news about Europe receiving additional 9mn COVID-19 vaccines in Q1-21 also supported the markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 1.2% to end at 400.8. Telecommunication Services stocks were the notable sector gainers. In Asia, the Nikkei index increased yesterday driven by gains in Chip-related stocks, after two sessions of declines. Further, upbeat earnings forecast for Chip-related stocks also supported the index. GCC GCC markets ended on a mixed note yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index decreased by 0.6% driven by losses in Consumer Durable & Apparel and Transportation stocks. Dubai’s index increased by 1.6%, as gains in Consumer Staples & Discretionary and Real Estate & Construction stocks lifted the index. Abu Dhabi index increased by 0.7%, due to gains in Consumer Staples and Real Estate stocks. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank increased by 0.2% after reporting a better than expected 2020 profit. The Bahraini Index increased by 0.3%, driven by gains in Banking and Investment stocks. Qatar The Qatari index remained flat yesterday. Selling pressure on part of domestic retail investors was set off by buying support on part of foreign retail and domestic & foreign institutional investors. Trade volumes and turnover increased with Industrial, Banking & Financial Service and Real Estate sectors together accounting for 74.8% of the total traded volumes. Out of the 48 listed stocks, 47 exchanged hands, 29 advanced, 14 declined while 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 18.9 1.5 3.4 101.2 DSM 20 18.2 1.5 3.6 72.9 10,600 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 33.5 2.1 2.4 2,373.5 10,200 UAE (ADX) 22.2 1.5 4.3 135.6 9,800 UAE (DFM) 13.3 0.9 3.6 46.8 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 11,000 9,400 5-Nov 10,473.6 200.0 0.0 19-Nov 3-Dec 17-Dec Index Volume (mn) Kuwait (KSE) 37.9 1.4 3.4 151.7 Oman (MSM) 13.2 0.7 6.9 0.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 14.2 1.0 4.6 1.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar National Cement Aamal Co Al Khalij Commercial Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar & Oman Top Losers Qatari Investors Group Qatar National Bank Qatar General Qatar Navigation Al Khaleej Takaful Close Price 4.5 0.9 2.1 16.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 7.8 1.3 11.5 (1.2) (3.0) (12.3) 9.2 56.5 2.7 53.0 1.9 17.5 2.5 7.5 2.8 (0.1) (0.4) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (3.9) (2.3) (1.6) (1.3) (1.2) 4.2 (1.9) (4.2) 5.4 44.9 7.8 7,512.2 30.1 (14.4) 4,351.1 14.6 (1.6) 9.7 NA 23.6 749.4 16.6 36.8 492.2 23.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 755.0 12,926.0 1,836.6 2,221.1 1,831.8 20.0 35.1 11.8 14.1 21.5 400.0 31-Dec 14-Jan Index Value 28-Jan Closing Level 4,224.4 7,984.8 3,221.5 2,464.4 1,856.7 1,131.6 3,448.7 1D Change (%) 0.8 (0.2) (0.3) (0.6) 0.4 0.9 (0.1) Buy (%) 34.5 18.8 53.3 16.0 30.7 46.7 Sell (%) 47.8 17.4 65.2 12.8 22.0 34.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. February 2 , 2021  According to Saudi Central Bank, the nation’s investments in treasury bonds reached USD 117.4bn in 2020. The foreign assets declined by USD 3.1bn to USD 480.0bn in December-20. (Source: Argaam)  As per the Saudi Central Bank, the consumer spending of the nation declined by 1.4% YoY to SAR 1.0tn (USD 273.0bn) in 2020. The point of sale transactions in Saudi Arabia rose by 35.0% YoY to USD 10.0bn in December-20. The total number of transactions processed reached 346.6mn. (Source: Arab News)  As per the Congressional Budget Office, the US economy will rise by 4.6% in 2021. The 2020 stimulus plans might lead to rise in the deficit by USD 774.0bn in FY-21 and by USD 98.0bn in FY-22. The average US unemployment rate is projected to fall to 5.7% in 2021 and will not reach the pre-pandemic levels until 2024. (Source: Reuters) According to Saudi Press Agency, the nation signed a general cooperation agreement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to encourage cooperation between the two nations in the field of commerce, investment, education, art, culture, media, tourism, sport and the economy. (Source: Arab News)  As per the European Central Bank, inflation in the Euro zone in 2020 was reported slightly higher than the actual numbers due to unavailability of some goods during the COVID-19 pandemic and postponement of price reduction by few entrepreneurs . (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia’s general reserves declined by SAR 110.9bn (USD 29.5bn) on annual basis to SAR 358.7bn (USD 95.7bn) in 2020. The nation’s current account increased by SAR 18.3bn (USD 4.9bn) to SAR 77.9bn (USD 20.8bn). (Source: Arab News)  As per Financial Times, the Finance Minister of the UK has announced to eliminate raising the rate of income tax, value-added tax or National Insurance to strengthen public finances. (Source: Reuters) As per National Labor Observatory, localization rate in Saudi Arabia's private sector firms increased by 0.9% points on annual basis to 21.8% in Q4-20. The total number of privately-employed Saudis subscribing in social insurance amounted to 1.7mn. (Source: Mubasher)  The Saudi Industrial Investment Group has announced to shut down its units at the Jubail Chevron Phillips Company for 41 days from 1st February-21. The financial impact will be seen in Q1-21 results. (Source: GLOBAL NEWS   The US Treasury has announced its plans to lower the projected borrowing to USD 274.0bn in Q1-21 from earlier estimate of USD 1.1tn and it issued USD 597.0bn in net debt in Q4-20. The cash balance as of Q1-21 is estimated to be USD 800.0bn. (Source: CNA) As per the Reuters review of funding requests, Unions and trade groups have requested for additional government assistance worth at least USD 112.8bn in order to support the struggling US transport sector which got severely impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Source: The US News)     As per Kyodo News, the Prime Minister of Japan is prepared to extend the nation’s state of emergency by one month until 7th March-21 in order to curb the spread of coronavirus. (Source: Bloomberg Quint) Mubasher)  The UK-based BP Plc announced to sell 20.0% stake in Oman’s Block 61 to Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production for USD 2.6bn in order to reduce the debt. The former would continue as an operator of the block with 40.0% interest. (Source: Reuters)  According to Oman's wealth fund, Oman Investment Authority would transfer a shareholding company, a tourism development project and resorts to Omran Group. The fund also had plans to restructure its tourism and real estate investments. (Source: Pensions and Investments)  Bahrain-based Arcapita has announced to invest USD 120.0mn in US student housing deals at Clemson University in South Carolina, US. The deal aims to raise the number of student-housing beds to 1,500 under the company’s ownership (Source: Arabian business)  According to Information & eGovernment Authority, Bahrain's trade balance improved by 8.0% YoY in 2020. The value of imports declined by 4.0% YoY to BHD 4.8bn (USD 12.8bn) and the value of exports of national origin rose by 4.0% to BHD2.4bn (USD 6.4bn). (Source: Bahrain GCC NEWS  As per Egypt’s Information and Decision Support Center, UAE became the largest importer of non-oil goods from Egypt in 2020 by importing product worth USD 2.9bn. The total volume of former nation’s trade with the latter reached around USD 4.1bn. Saudi Arabia ranked second largest importer of non-oil goods from Egypt. (Source: Arab News)  According to the White House, the US President has decided to maintain the tariffs on aluminum imports from the UAE in order to safeguard the national security interests of the US. (Source: NASDAQ)  Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has announced to redeem the company’s USD 500.0mn senior notes on 1st March-21 instead of 2023. The senior notes are valued at USD 456.1mn and would be redeemed at a price equal to 102.875% of the principal amount of the notes. (Source: Mubasher)  As per Dubai-based Cavendish Maxwell, the emirates’ average residential property prices declined by 4.4% YoY from Q4-19 to Q4-20. The average apartment rents declined by 16.0% YoY while villa and townhouse rents were lower by 1.7% YoY. A total of 28,255 units are expected to be launched in the Dubai market in 2021. (Source: Trade Arabia)  According to Chestertons, total value of completed residential property sales in Dubai increased by 35.5% YoY to AED 21.7bn (USD 5.9bn) in H2-20. Villa sales prices in the emirate rose by 3.6% YoY while apartment sales price decreased by 9.5% YoY. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia-based National Building and Marketing Company's board has announced to appoint Meshaal Aloqla as the company's new CEO from 8th February-21. (Source: Argaam)  The CEO of Ras al Khaimah-based Utico has announced the company’s plan to get listed on Dubai Financial Market for raising AED 3.0bn (USD 810.0mn) by the end of 2021. The company intends to lists its 20.030.0% of shares and aims to increase the dividends by 8.0-10.0%. (Source: Arabian Business) News Agency)  The Central Bank of Kuwait has announced to issue bonds worth KWD 240.0mn (USD 792.0mn) having a maturity period of 3 months at an interest rate of 1.125%. (Source: Kuwait News Agency)  Kuwait-based Agility has announced to invest USD 35.0mn in US-based Queen’s Gambit Growth Capital, to target businesses offering sustainable solutions in clean energy, healthcare, financial technology, industrials, mobility and emerging technology. (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS  Capital Intelligence Ratings has affirmed Qatar’s both long-term foreign currency rating and long-term local currency rating at ‘AA-’. The current account is forecasted to register a surplus of 1.2% of GDP, while budget surplus is expected to rise to 4.2% of GDP and GDP growth to 2.7% in 2021. (Source: Gulf TImes)  Qatari Investors Group reported decline in net profit by 43.1% YoY to QAR 84.6mn (USD 22.6mn) in 2020, while the revenue increased by 10.2% YoY to QAR 700.8mn (USD 186.9mn). (Source: Gulf TImes) 2
3. February 2 , 2021 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2090 USD/QAR 3.6415 104.9300 EUR/QAR 4.4026 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3693 JPY/QAR 0.0347 USD/CHF 0.8970 GBP/QAR 4.9863 USD/CAD 1.2851 CHF/QAR 4.0596 AUD/USD 0.7621 CAD/QAR 2.8336 NZD/USD 0.7158 AUD/QAR 2.7752 USD/INR 72.5275 INR/QAR 0.0502 USD/TRY 7.1929 TRY/QAR 0.5063 USD/ZAR 15.0694 ZAR/QAR 0.2416 USD/BRL 5.4454 BRL/QAR 0.6687 FX Commentary The USD increased against the basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling higher by 0.4% to end at 91.0. The dollar strengthened, amid views that the US has an advantage over growing its economy and vaccinating its population against COVID-19. The EUR decreased against the dollar, after Germany reported that retail sales fell more than expected in December-20 due to tighter lockdowns to curb COVID-19 cases. The GBP decreased against the dollar, despite UK’s manufacturing PMI for January-21 being better than expected. The CAD decreased against the dollar, ahead of the Canadian employment report for January-20 due on Friday. The AUD remained flat against the dollar, ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting on Tuesday and a speech outlining policy settings for the year on Wednesday. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.20 0.31 (0.58) (0.56) (0.57) (0.55) (0.51) QAIBOR 0.81 0.88 0.91 1.06 1.30 2.0% SAIBOR 0.55 0.59 0.65 0.82 0.94 1.0% EIBOR 0.14 0.14 0.22 0.37 0.61 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.75 1.88 2.24 KIBOR 0.56 0.88 1.19 1.44 1.94 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 1.42% 0.0% 1.81% 1.33% 0.96% 1.86% 0.42% 0.11% 0.43% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 1.48% 1.40% 1.35% 1.68% 1.61% 1.0% 1.13% 0.19% 0.82% 0.53% 0.0% 2.99% 3.0% 5 Yrs Qatar 1.08% 0.76% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 14.1 (9.1) Turkey 308.3 (223.6) UK 18.9 (3.2) Brazil 168.3 (49.6) Germany 12.5 (0.4) Egypt 350.8 (98.5) France 17.8 (2.5) Abu Dhabi 46.0 (2.6) Italy 97.8 (38.1) Bahrain 260.8 (76.5) Greece 96.8 (54.7) Dubai 123.8 (49.7) Russia 98.4 (4.2) Qatar 46.5 (1.4) Japan 17.5 (1.4) Saudi Arabia 69.4 (16.1) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:00 UK 10:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM Jan 0.30% 0.80% Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Jan 6.90% 10:45 France 7.30% CPI YoY Jan P 0.30% 12:00 0.00% Italy GDP WDA QoQ 4Q P (2.00%) 15.90% 12:00 Italy GDP WDA YoY 4Q P (6.60%) (5.00%) 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA QoQ 4Q A (0.90%) 12.50% 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA YoY 4Q A (5.30%) (4.30%) 3:30 Japan Jibun Bank Japan PMI Services Jan F -- 45.7 3:30 Russia Jibun Bank Japan PMI Composite Jan F -- 46.7 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Jan 49.5 48 9:00 RU Markit Russia PMI Composite Jan -- 48.3 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 154.4 12.3 20.2 0.7 (39.1) (42.6) NA NA NA (0.0) NA NA Independent Petroleum Group First Dubai Real Estate Deve Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. February 2 , 2021 st QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as of 31 January 2021) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.8 3.9 2.1 0.0 2.4 3.7 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.2 6.7 3.2 4.3 2.6 2.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.7 3.1 4.8 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.5 0.1 4.4 2.8 5.0 4.6 3.4 1.8 5.1 6.2 0.0 5.4 4.7 6.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 3.0 3.4 3.1 1.9 3.0 4.0 3.2 2.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 2.4 0.7 2.1 1.1 2.3 0.9 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.7 2.5 2.7 1.8 2.2 12.4 0.5 2.7 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.8 0.5 2.2 1.6 0.9 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.9 0.6 1.2 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 12.3 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 50.2 10.5 15.0 46.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.7 14.2 13.8 21.1 13.7 30.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 29.2 19.8 52.8 25.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 13.8 17.6 30.4 34.0 51.3 9.5 48.7 24.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 13.1 30.5 17.9 19.0 30.0 23.9 14.5 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 14.5 15.3 9.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 48.6 27.6 38.8 14.0 37.9 15.8 12.8 15.6 17.0 15.6 18.1 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.7 4.5 0.7 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.7 7.8 4.1 8.2 1.0 4.4 1.2 4.5 3.5 7.5 2.2 8.5 0.3 1.4 2.3 6.2 3.4 12.4 1.9 1.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.3 3.3 4.7 4.2 2.1 2.1 3.0 5.7 2.5 3.3 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.1 3.7 3.3 1.8 12.3 3.5 3.5 Stock Price (QR) 3.6 4.3 1.8 2.3 5.3 2.0 4.4 1.2 1.8 16.5 8.8 17.9 0.8 1.8 3.0 8.7 20.0 3.9 18.3 3.2 0.6 6.0 15.0 0.8 1.6 0.5 12.0 2.0 0.9 17.8 2.0 3.0 4.3 2.8 1.6 2.4 2.6 6.9 3.3 1.7 1.3 1.6 8.4 1.5 5.2 3.3 7.6 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4