GCC Daily Market Update - 2 April

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP April 02 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Italy Manufacturing Confidence Mar 106 107.1 106.4 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.00% 2.10% 1.90% US Initial Jobless Claims Mar-25th 247k 258k 261k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Mar-24th - 399.0b 395.7b Japan Jobless Rate Feb 3.00% 2.80% 3.00% Japan Industrial Production MoM Feb P 1.20% 2.00% (0.40%) France CPI YoY Mar P 1.20% 1.10% 1.20% UK GDP QoQ 4Q F 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% UK GDP YoY 4Q F 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Mar P 1.60% 1.30% 1.60% Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.25 2.20 2.32 27-Mar 116.1 20-Mar 125.6 13-Mar 114 06-Mar Mar 27-Feb Conf. Board Consmr Confid 20-Feb US UST 10yr Bond 13-Feb 111.1 06-Feb Prior 112.3 30-Jan Actual 111.1 23-Jan Survey Mar 16-Jan Event 09-Jan Period Germany IFO Business Climate 02-Jan Region Source: Bloomberg  Abu Dhabi International Airport registered a 2.5% YoY growth in the passenger traffic which rose to 1.9mn in Feb-17. (Source: Arabian Business)  Global merchandise trade volume grew by 2.4% QoQ in the three months to Jan-17, majorly due to contribution from emerging markets, according to Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis (Source: FT)  Saudi Arabia has set a range of income tax rates for producers of oil and hydrocarbons. Tax rate for investment exceeding SAR 375.0bn (USD 100bn) will be 50%. (Source: Arabian Business)  US Q4-16 GDP rose at an annualized rate of 2.1% from previously reported 1.9% due to robust consumer spending. (Source: Reuters)  Oman will cut crude oil exports to Asia by 15% to meet local demand and adhere to the deal made with OPEC members. (Source: Times of Oman)  US pending home sales rose 5.5% MoM to a 10-month high in Feb-17, due to expected increase in US interest rates. (Source: Reuters)  FDI in Oman at the end of Q3-16 exceeded OMR 7.0bn. Oil and gas exploration attracted FDI of over OMR 3.0bn. (Source: NCSI)  US weekly jobless claims fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended 25th Mar-16. (Source: Reuters)   UK unsecured consumer lending in the three months to Feb-17 rose at the weakest rate since Jul-15 with annualized growth slowing sharply to 8.7% during the month. (Source: Reuters) The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that its BHD 70.0mn issue of Government Treasury Bills with maturity of 91 days has been oversubscribed by 162%. (Source: BNA)  Bahrain’s oil and gas revenue declined at a CAGR of 13.9% in the past 3 years with revenue for 2016 amounting to BHD 8.0mn. (Source: NOB)  Eurozone inflation grew at a slower pace of 1.5% in Mar-17 from a 4 year high of 2.0% in Feb-17 as energy, food and services prices rose slower than last month. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait trade surplus retreated to 11 year low of KWD 4.7bn (14% of GDP) as oil prices remained weak. Oil exports receipts declined by 14.1% YoY to KWD 12.5bn for the period. (Source: Kuwait Times)  German consumer inflation slowed to 1.6% YoY in Mar-17, missing an estimate of 1.8%, as energy and food prices rose less than expected.  Kuwait's annual CPI rose by 3.2% YoY in Feb-17 as transport segment rose by 10.6% YoY and housing costs rose 6.4% YoY. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Reuters)     QATAR NEWS Japan retail sales rose 0.1% YoY in Feb-17 which is much less than 1.0% YoY growth in Jan-17, as consumers cut back on food and durable goods. (Source: Reuters)  Moody's said that the Chinese economy would face heightened risks from a potential future property downturn, as around 25% to 30% of its GDP is connected to demand from that sector. (Source: Moody's) The foreign merchandise trade balance rose by 74% YoY in Feb-17, with a surplus of QAR 12.3bn due to increased exports of Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar’s Prime Minister said that the economy is expected to grow by 3.5% YoY in 2017 due to increased efficiency of public spending. (Source: Profits of Chinese industrial firms rose 31.5% YoY in first two months of 2017. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey’s foreign trade deficit rose by 15.0% YoY to USD 3.69bn in Feb17 as imports rose 1.6% YoY and exports fell by 1.9% YoY. (Source: HDN) Qatar will invest GBP 5.0bn in Britain over the next few 3-5 years, the country's minister of finance said. (Source: Reuters)  UK is doubling its trade finance funds for Qatar from GBP 2.3bn to GBP 4.5bn to support UK exporters and their Qatari buyers. (Source: GT Review)  QIA announced the launch of a secondary public offering of its American depositary shares of Banco Santander as it intends to sell approximately 40% of its position. (Source: CNW)  The number of properties sold in Qatar fell significantly by 30.0% MoM to 289 in Feb-17. The total value of properties sold amounted to approximately QAR 1.6bn for the period. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatari banks led the GCC banking sector with highest revenue growth of 24.4% YoY in 2016 mainly due to integration of Finansbank by QNB, according to BCG. (Source: The Peninsula)  Real estate developer and operator Ezdan Holding has set initial price guidance for its five-year USD-denominated sukuk issue in the 5.1% area. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  GCC banks have reported 3.2% YoY decline in profits in 2016, due to lower demand for loans amidst oil price decline and higher impairment costs. (Source: Albawaba)  UAE Federal budget surplus rose during 9M-2016 by 130.0% YoY to AED 8.0bn. Total revenues reached AED 37.5bn, while expenditures hit AED 29.7bn for the period. (Source: Gulf News)  UAE bank’s credit to industrial sector grew by 190% to AED 70.0bn over the past decade accounting for 4.8% of total loans by the end of 2016. (Source: Zawya)  UAE’s industrial sector investment rose to AED 112.0bn in 2016, (86% of the total), according to the Minister of Economy. (Source: Zawya) The Peninsula) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP April 02 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY Index Price WTD %Δ 2,362.7 0.8 (0.0) 5.5 MSCI EM 958.4 (1.1) MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 2.3 11.1 20,663.2 0.3 (0.7) 4.6 S&P GCC 1,641.0 (1.3) (0.4) 4.4 Nasdaq 5,436.2 1.3 2.0 11.8 Dow Jones Islamic 3,124.8 0.4 1.4 7.5 FTSE 100 7,322.9 (0.2) 0.8 2.5 KSA (TASI) 7,001.6 1.8 0.4 (2.9) DAX 30 12,312.9 2.1 4.0 7.2 UAE (DFM) 3,480.4 0.5 (4.1) (1.4) CAC 40 5,122.5 2.0 5.4 5.4 UAE (ADX) 4,443.5 (1.2) (2.4) (2.3) BIST 100 88,947.4 (1.6) 1.7 13.8 Qatar (DSM) 10,390.6 (0.5) (2.9) (0.4) Nikkei 22.3 18,909.3 (1.8) (1.1) (1.1) Kuwait (KSE) 7,029.4 (0.2) 3.6 Sh. Comp 3,222.5 (1.4) (0.6) 3.8 Bahrain (BAX) 1,356.0 (1.4) 0.5 11.1 Hang Seng 24,111.6 (1.0) 1.6 9.6 Oman (MSM) 5,550.6 (1.5) (4.0) (4.0) Sensex 29,620.5 0.7 3.1 11.2 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,250.2 0.6 1.7 3.7 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 2.1 2.0 DAX 30 CAC 40 Nasdaq S&P 500 Sensex Jordan (ASEGI) DJIA FTSE 100 Hang Seng MSCI EM Sh. Comp BIST 100 Nikkei BIST 100 Nasdaq Sensex MSCI EM Hang Seng DAX 30 S&P 500 CAC 40 DJIA Sh. Comp Jordan (ASEGI) FTSE 100 Nikkei 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 (0.2) (1.0) (1.1) (1.4) (1.6) (1.8) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 13.8 11.8 11.2 11.1 9.6 7.2 (1.1) Source: Bloomberg 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) KSA (TASI) 1.8 UAE (DFM) Dow Jones Islamic UAE (ADX) S&P GCC Bahrain (BAX) Oman (MSM) Qatar (DSM) (0.5) UAE (DFM) (1.2) UAE (ADX) (1.3) KSA (TASI) (1.4) Oman (MSM) (1.5) (2.0) (1.0) 7.5 S&P GCC (0.2) Qatar (DSM) 22.3 11.1 Dow Jones Islamic 0.4 Kuwait (KSE) Kuwait (KSE) Bahrain (BAX) 0.5 0.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg 4.4 (0.4) (1.4) (2.3) (2.9) (4.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 2.0 Major global indices diverged this week, with US indices ending in green as rising oil prices lifted energy stocks, while a slew of positive economic indicators showing rising consumer confidence, gains in personal income, higher consumer spending and a drop in jobless rates, lifted investor morale. The stocks also benefitted as investors focused on tax reforms planned by Trump. Major European indexes ended higher, as investors apparently played down political risk in favor of broader positive macroeconomic trends in the Eurozone, which also included ECB officials allaying fears of any near-term monetary tightening. Basic Resources segment logged strong gains amidst improving metal prices. In Asia, Japan index closed in red, weighed by weak retail sales and slow wage growth, which raised concerns on the nation’s weak consumption patterns, despite massive stimulus. GCC Gulf indices closed on a mixed note this week, with Saudi Arabia’s benchmark leading its peers in a week which saw oil cross USD 50 per barrel. Buying interest was witnessed majorly in Food Retailing, Banking and Telecom sector. In UAE, Abu Dhabi’s benchmark closed 1.2% lower, weighed by sell off Real Estate stocks, majorly RAK Properties, Eshraq and Aldar Properties. The trend was opposite in Dubai, which gained on back on Real Estate stocks. The gains were limited to some extent as many stocks went ex-dividend. 5.5 5.4 4.6 3.8 3.7 2.5 (5.0) 3.0 Global 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Qatar QE index closed in red, despite gainers outnumbering decliners this week. Substantially reduced buying interests of foreign institutions weighed on the index. Selling pressure was seen more within Telecom, Banking, Transport and Consumer goods space. Volumes increased this week with Banking, Telecom and Real Estate sectors together accounting for more than 87% of total trades. 52% of stocks closed in red, with high volumes witnessed in Vodafone Qatar, Al Khaleej Takaful, Mazaya Qatar, Widam Food, Alijarah Holding, and Qatari German Company for Medical Devices. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator Price Last Close 10,390.6 MAVG 50 10,654.7 10,500 MAVG 100 10,421.3 10,000 MAVG 200 10,437.3 6 Month High 11,057.8 6 Month Low 9,636.4 RSI (14 Days) 42.2 11,000 9,500 Oct-16 10,390.6 Nov-16 Index Jan-17 50 SMA 100 SMA Feb-17 200 SMA Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP April 02 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 3.00 1.92 2.60 2.00 0.50 3.00 2.00 1.77 1.54 1.22 1.00 0.72 4.22 3.23 2.52 2.32 1.30 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 3.30 3.06 2.82 1.93 1.26 1.00 4.45 4.00 2.39 2.21 2.50 1.50 5.00 3.01 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS 5 Years CDS 5 Yrs Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGS 2018 100.4 23.9 1.39 (0.1) 0.1 QGIB 2019 109.1 31.6 1.83 (0.0) (1.0) QGIB 2020 107.7 62.9 2.32 (0.2) (0.4) Qatari Diar 2020 99.0 66.8 2.59 0.0 0.9 QGIB 2021 108.1 60.5 2.35 (0.3) 0.5 US 25.5 0.2 (1.8) (1.3) UK 29.0 (0.6) (0.5) (2.1) Germany 17.2 (0.4) (4.9) (4.6) France 50.4 5.3 (7.2) 13.4 QGIB 2022 107.5 79.8 2.77 0.1 0.3 Italy 170.1 (10.3) (17.3) 12.9 QGS 2023 102.6 63.3 2.67 (0.0) 0.4 Greece 914.7 (26.5) (102.5) (132.8) QGIB 2026 99.6 97.0 3.27 0.8 2.8 QGIB 2030 159.2 152.8 3.92 0.5 4.2 QGIB 2040 127.8 187.3 4.42 0.5 2.6 QGIB 2042 119.4 186.1 4.42 0.3 2.6 QGIB 2046 102.8 184.3 4.43 1.5 2.5 Russia 166.7 (8.4) (1.6) (64.7) Japan 25.1 (1.0) 1.1 (4.9) Turkey 239.3 2.9 (1.6) (33.9) Brazil 226.4 (10.2) 2.7 (54.3) Source: Bloomberg, QCB Egypt 343.8 1.9 7.3 (108.6) US Swap Rates Abu Dhabi 40.9 (3.1) (5.8) (20.5) Bahrain 220.9 (10.6) (2.1) (81.6) Dubai 114.5 (8.2) (2.5) Qatar 62.4 (4.3) (4.4) GCC Saudi Arabia Tenor 99.5 (2.6) 1.7 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.148 (0.004) 0.150 6M LIBOR 1.419 (0.008) 0.101 (35.3) 12M LIBOR 1.793 (0.009) 0.108 (17.9) 2 years 1.618 (0.002) 0.161 5 years 2.052 (0.013) 0.075 10 years 2.384 (0.012) 0.045 30 years 2.645 0.006 0.050 (13.9) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 74.0 (1.8) (0.4) 1.3 iTraxx Europe Crossover 290.3 (3.9) (1.4) (1.1) Commentary CDX North America IG 66.6 (1.6) (0.2) (1.2) CDX North America HY 337.7 14.1 0.6 (16.4) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 53.9 (2.4) (1.3) (16.1) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 76.4 (7.5) (5.4) (48.3) US treasury yield were little changed for the week, as upbeat soft economic data like improving consumer confidence was belittled by hard data which showed disappointing consumer spending and weaker than expected inflation. A higher revised Q4-16 GDP lent some support to bond prices. European government bond yields fell for the week, as ECB officials allayed fears of near term monetary tightening. Weaker Eurozone and German inflation reading further reinforced ECB’s view. UK government bond yields traded lower as the country officially triggered Article 50 amidst a downbeat GDP reading and Scotland’s demand for independence. Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP April 02 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 53.5 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 50.6 Oil prices rallied during the week, as comments from Iran and Kuwait’s oil ministers showcased their intent to continue with the production cut. Reports of a force majeure at Libyan fields and a lower than expected rise in US crude stock piles further supported prices. Copper prices benefited from data showing upbeat manufacturing activity in China. The gains were however capped as supply disruption were solved after end of strike at Peru's biggest copper mine- Cerro Verde. Natural gas prices rose for the week as EIA weekly stockpile data suggested tighter supplies. Gold prices bucked the broader trend posting a weekly loss after a flurry of strong US data impacted demand for the safe haven. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.2 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,247.3 Silver (USD/t oz.) 18.3 Copper (USD/lb) 265.3 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) WTI Crude Silver 5.5 Brent 4.0 Natural Gas Silver 3.0 1.1 Gold 5.9 Brent (5.8) WTI Crude (5.8) Natural Gas (0.1) (1.0) 8.3 Copper 3.7 Copper 14.2 Gold 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 (14.3) (20.0) 6.0 Source: Bloomberg (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.2580 USD/INR 64.3500 EUR/USD 1.0682 USD/CNY 6.8872 CAD/USD 0.7509 USD/TRY 3.6363 AUD/USD 0.7629 USD/EGP 18.1750 NZD/USD 0.7006 USD/ZAR 13.4136 111.3900 USD/RUB 56.2447 USD/JPY Commentary USD gained after release of positive indicators, which included strong GDP and consumer confidence data. Lesser than expected increase in US consumer spending and inflation number however limited gains. CAD rose as Canada’s GDP data showed robust growth in Jan-17. A clarification by ECB officials on no near monetary tightening weighed on EUR. A slower than expected German consumer inflation and employment data further impacted the common currency. JPY fell as BoJ’s summary of March policy meeting, indicated plans to continue its ultra-loose monetary policy. ZAR fell 7.4% after amidst a cabinet reshuffle, which saw its finance minister fired. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) RUB INR GBP CAD CNY AUD EGP JPY NZD TRY EUR ZAR(7.4) (8.0) Source: Bloomberg 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.7) (1.4) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 RUB AUD JPY INR ZAR GBP EUR CNY NZD CAD EGP TRY (3.1) (4.0) 9.4 5.8 5.0 4.9 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4