GCC Daily Market Update - 19 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 19 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,752.0 24,946.5 7,019.9 7,164.1 12,389.6 5,282.8 117,216.3 21,676.5 31,502.0 3,269.9 33,176.0 4.7 72.9 (11.0) 24.4 44.0 15.5 14.8 (127.4) (39.1) (21.2) (509.5) 0.2 0.3 (0.2) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 (0.6) (0.1) (0.6) (1.5) 1.4 (0.3) 2.4 (0.9) (0.4) (0.7) (1.5) (1.8) 2.1 0.3 (2.9) 2.9 0.9 9.7 (6.8) (4.1) (0.6) 1.6 (4.8) 5.3 (1.1) (2.6) 8,802.8 7,728.1 4,533.1 3,192.8 6,757.5 4,893.0 1,352.5 1,642.5 3,732.8 (45.0) (16.6) (9.6) (4.5) (2.7) (4.0) (3.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) 1.7 4.2 (1.4) (1.6) (0.2) (2.2) (1.3) 1.1 1.7 3.3 6.9 3.1 (5.3) 5.5 (4.0) 1.6 3.1 2.5 66.2 62.3 2.7 1,312.3 309.3 1.1 1.2 0.0 (5.5) (1.8) 1.7 1.9 0.3 (0.4) (0.6) 0.1 0.6 0.8 (0.4) (1.2) (1.5) 2.6 (8.9) 0.2 (7.0) Global The US equity markets ended higher on Friday, led by upbeat US industrial production data. Investors, however, remained watchful about the possibilities of a global trade war, which capped the gains. The S&P 500 index edged 0.2% higher, backed by gains in Energy stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended 0.2% higher, due to weakness in EUR, following the release of tepid inflation data from Eurozone. The UK benchmark climbed 0.3%, reflecting weakness in GBP. However gains were limited as Homebuilders took a hit, after the nation’s leading developer provided a downbeat review on the domestic housing market. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark fell 0.6%, weighed by weakness in Automakers and Technology stocks. The Chinese benchmark inched 0.6% lower, weighed by selling pressure in Technology, Consumer and Materials stocks. GCC GCC equity markets ended lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark declined 0.2% as strength in Energy stocks were offset by weakness in Food & Staples Retailing stocks. SABB Takaful advanced 2.2%, after the central bank reinforced the license of the company and allowed it to accept new customers. Peer insurer, Bupa Arabia rose 3.6%, after its parent company announced to increase its stake in the company. In Dubai, Emaar Properties edged 1.9% lower, due to sluggish outlook on Dubai’s real estate market. Qatar The QE index inched 0.5% lower, during yesterday’s trading session on back of increased selling pressure from non-Qatari retail investors. The weakness in Banking and Transportation stocks weighed on the overall market performance. Trade turnover and volumes declined, with the Insurance, Banking and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 67% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands of which, 17 declined, 24 advanced and 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.4 1.3 4.8 85.3 DSM 20 13.6 1.3 4.8 40.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.7 3.1 1,001.2 UAE (ADX) 11.6 1.3 5.2 16.6 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.2 5.5 39.6 Kuwait (KSE) 15.0 1.0 5.5 44.7 Oman (MSM) 11.9 1.0 5.1 5.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.0 0.8 5.9 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Salam International Inv Commercial Bank Pqsc Ezdan Holding Group Al Ahli Bank Islamic Holding Group Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar National Bank Gulf Warehousing Co Barwa Real Estate Co Al Meera Con. Goods Close Price 5.8 29.2 9.7 33.0 29.8 0.4 1.7 0.5 1.3 1.2 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.1 4.0 (16.1) 1.0 (19.7) (11.1) (20.5) (44.8) (3.6) (36.8) 3.9 (53.1) 70.1 NA 226.3 32.2 511.4 15.0 24.0 10.7 34.9 NA 55.2 135.1 39.2 34.8 148.0 (2.2) (4.9) (1.1) (0.7) (2.5) (3.8) (3.5) (2.6) (2.0) (1.7) 0.4 7.2 (11.0) 8.8 2.1 (18.8) (7.1) (23.5) 1.8 (14.5) 5.6 271.3 33.6 178.4 31.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 13.4 10.0 10.7 8.0 15.2 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,802.8 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 20/Dec 0.0 3/Jan 17/Jan 31/Jan Index Volume (mn) 14/Feb 28/Feb 14/Mar Index Value Closing Level 2,867.0 5,373.0 2,887.2 2,931.8 1,777.8 1,070.4 1,874.6 1D Change (%) (1.4) 0.4 0.5 (0.2) 2.4 0.4 (1.4) Buy (%) 31.6 21.5 53.1 9.2 37.7 46.9 Sell (%) 34.5 32.3 66.8 12.5 20.7 33.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 19 , 2018 India based IT solutions provider, IBS Software, to implement the iCargo terminal operation suite across all its stations. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US building permits for privately owned housing units decreased by 5.7% MoM to 1.3mn in February-18. The privately owned housing starts decreased by 7.0% MoM to an annual rate of 1.2mn during the same month. (Source: Census)  Dubai Investment company’s private equity subsidiary, Masharie, has sold its 50.0% stake worth AED 35.0mn (USD 9.5mn) in Drive Dubai, the company’s CEO stated. The sale offered an internal rate of return of 21.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia)  US industrial production increased by 1.1% MoM, while manufacturing production increased by 1.2% MoM in February-18. The material sector increased by 1.6% MoM, while non-industrial supplies increased by 0.8% MoM during the same month. (Source: Federal  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has awarded ownerships worth AED 5.3bn (USD 1.4bn) in two of its offshore oil concessions to France based oil company, Total. Stakes includes 20.0% in Umm Shaif and Nasr concession and 5.0% in Lower Zakum concession. (Source: Trade Reserve)  Euro zone’s annual inflation rate decreased to 1.1% in February-18 as compared to 1.3% in January-18. The prices in the service sector increased at an annual rate of 0.6% while food, alcohol & tobacco and energy prices rose by 0.2%. (Source: EC Europe)  Japan’s exports increased by 1.8% YoY to JPY 6.3tn, while imports increased by 16.5% MoM to JPY 5.5tn. Thus, the trade balance decreased by 99.6% YoY to JPY 3.4bn in February-18. (Source: Customs)  The Bank of Japan’s government debt holdings increased by 6.8% YoY to the highest level to JPY 449.0tn (USD 4.2tn) in December-17, driven by the country’s quantitative easing program. The central bank held 41.1% of the total government debt by the end of December-17. Arabia)  (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi government is planning to acquire 35.0% stake in construction company, Saudi Binladin Group, which would be a part of its financial settlement with state authorities. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah Economic City has to introduce 130 new plots which are preferred for the construction of single-family homes at a master planned gated community, Al Hejaz Miram, within the country. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based Kingdom Holding Company has renewed its plans to raise loan worth USD 1.0bn from local and international lenders, which would be backed by its stake in Banque Saudi Fransi. (Source: Gulf (Source: Reuters)    People’s Bank of China’s Vice Governor, Yi Gang, has been appointed to the new role as the head of the Chinese central bank by succeeding Zhou Xiaochuan, the parliament delegates stated. (Source: Reuters) People’s Bank of China’s Governor, Yi Gang, stated that there is need to implement judicious monetary policy so as to keep the financial sector of the country stable. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia based crane rental company, Arabian Consolidated Trading, has announced that it is expanding its crane fleet by ordering four Demag AC 160-5, two AC 300-6 all-terrain cranes and four Terex RT 90 rough terrain cranes. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman government’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond rating has been downgraded to Baa3 by Moody’s credit rating agency. The downgrade cam in light of huge fiscal deficit and the ongoing weakening of its economy. (Source: Gulf Base)  Oman’s crude oil and condensate production accounted to 27.1 mn barrels with a daily average of 966,985 barrels during February-18, according to the Ministry of Oil and Gas report. (Source: Times of Oman) Turkey’s overall export unit value index increased by 7.2% YoY, while the overall import unit value index increased by 10.8% YoY in January18. (Source: Turkstat) GCC NEWS  Times)  Australia is planning to establish a regional infrastructure pipeline along with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations due to increase of the Chinese influence, the country’s Foreign Minister stated. (Source: Reuters)  Meed Projects Awards would witness competition of 94 new projects from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait within 16 different categories. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi based mixed-use waterfront development company, Al Fahid Island Development, has awarded its first construction contract to Canada based SNC-Lavalin Group’s subsidiary, Faithful+Gould. The company would cover the reclamation, marine works, site wide infrastructure and landscaping, residential and leisure components. QATAR NEWS  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has awarded contracts worth AED 1.3bn (USD 348.4mn) to Grid Solution SAS for construction of four substations having a capacity of 400/132 kV. This would add its current tally of 21 such substations. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Doha Insurance is planning to build representative offices in London and Beirut, which would underwrite reinsurance business. This would include energy risks, life and medical insurance, the company’s Chairman stated. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai International Financial Centre announced that the construction work of the exchange building worth AED 180.0mn (USD 49.0mn) has been completed. The building covers an area of 114,000 sq ft of office space and 33,000 sq ft of retail. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has announced that the company would be spending worth QAR 21.8bn for development of roads and infrastructure projects in 2018. (Source: Gulf Times)   Dubai based MAG Group’s subsidiary, MAG Lifestyle Development, is planning to introduce a residential project, MAG EYE at Cityscape, worth AED 4.7bn (USD 1.3bn). (Source: Trade Arabia) Ashghal has also announced that the phase 1 of its project, which aims to convert Al Tarfa Roundabout (known as the Golf Course R/A) into a signal controlled intersection, has been completed. (Source: Gulf Times)   Dubai based airline company, Emirates, has announced that its Sukuk, worth USD 600.0mn has been executed. The principal amount would be repaid in amortizing format maturing in March-28. (Source: Trade Qatar based Msheireb Properties has awarded a contract to Finland based Kone Corporation to provide 72 elevators and escalators for its Phase IV, the last phase to complete Msheireb Downtown Doha projects. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Navigation, Milaha, is planning to make huge investments for expanding its operations and capabilities in the domestic and international markets, as a part of its long term plan to improve efficiency and profitability, the group’s board of directors stated. Arabia)   Dubai based DP World and India based National Investment and Infrastructure Fund’s joint venture, Hindustan Infralog Private Limited, has acquired a 90.0% stake in Continental Warehousing Corporation Ltd. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: The Peninsula) Dubai based air service provider, Dnata, has signed a contract with 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 19 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2320 USD/QAR 3.6415 106.0100 EUR/QAR 4.4863 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3972 JPY/QAR 0.0344 USD/CHF 0.9520 GBP/QAR 5.0879 USD/CAD 1.3096 CHF/QAR 3.8251 AUD/USD 0.7713 CAD/QAR 2.7806 NZD/USD 0.7218 AUD/QAR 2.8087 USD/INR 64.4400 INR/QAR 0.0565 USD/TRY 3.9203 TRY/QAR 0.9289 USD/ZAR 11.9755 ZAR/QAR 0.3041 USD/BRL 3.2802 BRL/QAR 1.1101 FX Commentary The USD ended higher against a basket of major currencies on Friday with dollar index up 0.1% at 90.256. The strength in USD was triggered by data showing a higher-than-expected rise in US industrial production for February-18, further supporting expectations that US Fed would raise interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting. The EUR weakened against the greenback, on account of weaker-thanexpected Eurozone inflation data. The GBP ended lower against the dollar, after the Bank of England warned about the UK’s increasing reliance upon foreign investors for financing its wide current account deficit. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart on amidst speculations that the central bank would take a gradual approach in rising interest rates, on account of trade uncertainties with US. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.45 1.63 1.82 2.20 2.61 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.18 2.26 2.41 2.63 3.02 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.86 1.95 2.16 2.53 2.0% EIBOR 1.34 1.46 1.76 2.14 2.78 BMIBOR 1.40 1.70 2.23 2.61 3.19 NA NA 1.63 1.88 2.38 KIBOR 2.61% 2.30% 4.71% 3.40% 3.47% 3.54% 2.65% 2.79% 2.85% 3.08% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 26.0 (3.4) Turkey 177.7 14.5 UK 18.6 (6.3) Brazil 148.9 (32.0) Germany 11.3 (2.8) Egypt 271.3 (86.2) France 18.9 (3.1) Abu Dhabi 56.8 (1.6) Italy 101.0 (38.2) Bahrain 249.2 11.3 Greece 346.4 (177.7) Dubai 102.5 (25.2) Russia 109.6 (23.6) Qatar 79.7 (11.8) Japan 19.4 (15.9) Saudi Arabia 77.8 (5.9) 2.62% 2.0% 1.65% 2.90% 2.84% 2.80% 2.47% 2.30% 2.12% 2.95% 2.73% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 12:00 Italy Industrial Production MoM Jan (0.60%) 1.60% 12:00 Italy Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan 4.50% 4.90% 12:00 Italy Industrial Production NSA YoY Jan - (1.30%) 13:00 Italy Trade Balance Total Jan - 5,253m 08:00 Japan Leading Index CI Jan F - 104.8 08:00 Japan Coincident Index Jan F - 114 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 96.3 (3.4) 435.7 261.2 (39.5) 96.7 (37.7) (80.6) NA Kuwait Foundry Co NA NA NA (1.0) (77.4) NA Sultan Center Food Products NA NA NA 2.2 NA 174.4 Shuaiba Industrial Co 4.1 35.7 4.7 0.4 100.9 13.2 Sahara Hospitality 2.9 (8.7) 2.1 0.5 (14.5) (15.3) Majan College NA NA NA 0.5 5.0 (8.8) Boubyan Intl Industries Hold NA NA NA (0.1) (7.4) (5.7) Yanbu Cement Co Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 19 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 15th March 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.6 0.0 11.1 3.5 6.4 5.4 5.1 0.0 4.3 7.1 4.3 6.4 4.7 6.7 5.4 5.7 4.4 6.9 0.0 0.0 7.1 4.5 6.2 6.3 0.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.0 2.4 7.3 7.7 4.7 0.0 5.4 3.8 4.8 6.1 4.2 7.0 5.4 0.0 7.6 6.1 4.1 0.0 3.3 4.2 6.1 5.1 5.5 4.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.9 0.9 1.5 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 3.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.6 2.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 5.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 18.4 19.8 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.6 13.7 157.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 10.2 9.8 26.3 10.6 5.4 29.2 15.5 34.0 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 7.7 11.8 12.0 37.2 11.9 19.1 16.0 13.3 15.3 10.5 11.8 16.4 18.5 16.6 25.8 12.9 13.9 19.7 8.1 14.4 48.8 9.6 11.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 10.9 10.7 16.6 12.6 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 11.1 2.5 9.7 0.7 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 13.1 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 40.1 64.5 35.6 69.0 20.7 71.1 6.0 12.9 19.0 113.5 44.6 12.7 19.8 10.4 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.7 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 31.7 27.5 11.6 27.0 28.7 11.7 37.0 9.9 7.0 98.5 56.0 140.0 7.8 60.0 74.1 150.5 22.7 115.8 5.9 5.4 60.3 101.0 9.5 17.0 6.3 104.9 13.9 195.0 31.1 41.0 58.8 10.7 14.0 34.3 45.5 57.4 35.5 9.2 7.7 16.5 85.0 7.7 40.2 16.4 68.1 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4