GCC Daily Market Update - 17 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 17 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,776.4 25,792.9 6,737.1 7,755.9 13,246.3 5,513.8 114,418.4 23,951.8 31,904.8 3,436.6 34,771.1 (9.8) (10.3) (21.4) (13.2) 45.8 4.1 2,259.2 236.9 565.9 26.1 (72.5) (0.4) (0.0) (0.3) (0.2) 0.4 0.1 2.0 1.0 1.8 0.8 (0.2) 3.8 4.3 5.3 0.9 2.5 3.8 (0.8) 5.2 6.6 3.9 2.1 3.8 4.3 5.3 0.9 2.5 3.8 (0.8) 5.2 6.6 3.9 2.1 9,178.2 7,531.6 4,615.4 3,525.6 6,624.5 5,039.9 1,321.4 1,679.3 3,785.2 231.2 48.3 13.5 29.8 (2.1) (29.4) (2.7) (1.2) (6.8) 2.6 0.7 0.3 0.9 (0.0) (0.6) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) 7.7 4.2 4.9 4.6 3.4 (1.2) (0.8) 5.4 4.0 7.7 4.2 4.9 4.6 3.4 (1.2) (0.8) 6.4 4.0 69.2 63.7 3.1 1,337.1 322.0 (1.1) (0.6) (0.1) 2.2 0.1 (1.6) (0.9) (2.2) 0.2 0.0 3.2 5.3 5.2 2.1 (2.8) 3.2 5.3 5.2 2.1 (2.8) Source: Bloomberg Global US equity markets ended lower yesterday, as investors weighed the possibility of a government shutdown in light of increasing pressure on Congress to pass a spending bill by the end of Friday. The S&P 500 index declined 0.4%, weighed by weakness in Materials and Energy stocks. Energy shares took a hit following a decline in oil prices. The Stoxx European 600 ended 0.1% higher, driven by gains in Automobile stocks. The UK benchmark ended 0.2% lower, weighed by Mining and Energy stocks. Losses in Energy shares were led by declines in sector heavy-weight BP. In Asia, the Hang Seng index ended at a record high with 1.8% gains, supported by strength in index heavyweight Tencent Holding and Financials shares. The Japanese benchmark ended 1.0% higher, backed by weakness in JPY, which supporting the country’s exporters. GCC GCC equity markets ended mixed during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark ended 0.7% higher, backed by gains in Petrochemical producer Saudi Kayan and rally in Food & Beverages and Telecommunication stocks. The Dubai benchmark ended 0.9% higher, led by strength in Emaar Properties and Emirates NBD after the lender reported Q4-2017 results in line with analysts’ forecasts. In Oman, the benchmark index ended 0.6% lower, however AlIzz Islamic Bank rallied 6.0% following the announcement of better-than-expected Q4-17 earnings data. Qatar The QE index rebounded during yesterday’s trading session with 2.6% gains, backed by rally in oil prices during the gulf trading session and strong bullish outlook from foreign institutional investors. The trade turnover and volumes, however, declined during the trading session, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for about 79% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands of which, 33 advanced, 8 declined and 2 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.8 1.3 4.1 65.7 DSM 20 15.3 1.3 4.2 54.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.7 1.7 3.2 969.0 UAE (ADX) 16.5 1.3 4.4 50.1 UAE (DFM) 24.9 1.3 3.9 99.8 Kuwait (KSE) 16.0 1.1 5.2 49.1 Oman (MSM) 11.6 1.0 5.2 3.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.8 0.8 5.9 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Navigation Masraf Al Rayan Islamic Holding Group Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatari Investors Group Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Qatar Cinema & Film Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar National Cement Al Khalij Com Bank Close Price 58.5 42.1 39.0 13.9 40.4 3.4 2.1 1.9 0.6 1.6 6.2 5.3 5.1 4.4 4.1 4.6 11.6 4.0 5.0 10.5 (37.1) 4.1 (38.2) (35.0) (31.2) 28.1 998.0 147.8 1.1 82.7 21.1 15.6 72.0 31.6 20.1 33.5 23.0 56.6 63.1 13.4 (1.5) (0.9) (0.9) (0.5) (0.1) (4.4) (3.6) (1.6) (0.7) (0.7) (14.1) (8.0) 2.9 0.2 (5.6) (7.4) (23.4) 4.5 (23.1) (21.4) 0.5 0.1 63.8 29.6 59.7 10.4 34.4 13.4 11.4 10.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,300 15.0 9,178.2 8,850 10.0 8,400 5.0 7,950 7,500 22/Oct 0.0 5/Nov 19/Nov 3/Dec Index Volume (mn) 17/Dec 31/Dec 14/Jan Index Value Closing Level 2,852.6 5,220.5 2,842.0 3,698.8 2,051.1 1,154.2 1,891.9 1D Change (%) 2.4 1.0 2.4 (0.1) 1.4 1.8 3.9 Buy (%) 32.2 15.9 48.1 16.6 35.3 51.9 Sell (%) 34.5 24.1 58.6 19.1 22.4 41.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 17 , 2018 with a height of up to 80.0m below the Liwa Desert, Abu Dhabi. (Source: GLOBAL NEWS  UK’s consumer price index climbed 3.0% YoY in December-17 as compared to 3.1% YoY in November-17. Core consumer price index increased by 2.5% YoY during the same period. (Source: ONS)  UK’s producer output price index increased by 3.3% YoY in December17 as compared to 3.1% YoY in November-17, driven by stronger increase in food product industries. Input Prices for materials and fuels increased by 4.9% YoY during the same period. (Source: ONS)  Germany’s consumer price index increased 1.8% YoY in the year 2017, while the inflation rate stood at 1.7% YoY in December-17. The growth was driven by increase in energy prices by 3.1% in the year 2017. Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based energy company, Masdar, has signed a collaboration agreement with France based EDF SA, the parent company of the EDF Group, in the field of power sectors to explore development opportunities in both countries. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah ruler, Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, announced the development of three real estate projects worth AED 2.7bn (USD 740.0mn) to be built under the joint venture between Sharjah Investment and Development Authority and Abu Dhabi based real estate firm Eagle Hills. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia is planning to award contracts for the construction of its first nuclear-power plants by the end of 2018. The country has received request from 5 bidders to work on two nuclear reactors. (Source: Destatis)  Germany’s wholesale price index increased by 1.8% YoY, while it decreased by 0.3% MoM in December-17. The average index of selling prices in wholesale trade increased by 3.5% YoY in the year 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia is expected to start renewable energy projects worth USD 5.0-7.0bn in 2018, Head of the Renewable Energy Project Development Office, stated. The country will issue tenders for 8 projects accounting for a total capacity of 4.1GW. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment fund, is planning to buy stake in Endeavor, the holding company of Hollywood talent agency, WME. The fund might invest around USD 500.0mn, which would help the agency to expand their operations. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia based investment firm, Kingdom Holding, has sold its stake in the Four Seasons Hotel in Beirut (Lebanon) for USD 100.0115.0mn, which includes its debt exposure. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait’s local banks are instructed to increase local employees to 70.0% in various banking sector positions, in an effort to nationalize leading positions in the banking sector, which has been profitable till now. (Source: Kuwait Times)  Oman’s sovereign wealth fund, The State General Reserve Fund, is planning to launch an infrastructure fund worth USD 1.0bn to boost investment in projects in the field of road, transport and energy systems. (Source: Arabian Business)  BP Oman has awarded a three year contract to Jacobs Engineering Group to provide engineering, procurement and construction management services for the Phase Two of the Khazzan Project in Oman. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Destatis)    Japan’s total value machine orders increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 11.8% MoM and 6.4% YoY to JPY 2.7tn in November-17, driven by increase in private sector orders (excluding volatile orders) by 5.7% MoM and 4.1% YoY to JPY 899.2bn. (Source: ESRI) Japan indices of tertiary industry activity increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.1% MoM in November-17, driven by increase in wholesale trade industries by 2.8% MoM, which contributed 0.4% to the overall change. (Source: METI) Turkey’s treasury department borrowed around TRY 900.0mn (USD 237.0mn) from domestic markets through the auction sale of its 12M zero coupon government bonds at an interest rate of 13.5%. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  Moody’s has kept its ‘Negative” outlook for GCC’s sovereign rating has due to long standing geopolitical risks and lower economic growth, which are discouragement to the creditworthiness of the region. (Source: Arab News)  UAE nationals carrying ordinary passports has been exempted from obtaining pre-entry visas to China, with the possibility of staying for up to 30 days on each visit, effective from 16th January-18, according to the People's Republic of China. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has signed an agreement with the GCC Interconnection Authority and the Belgian Dredging, Environmental & Marine Engineering Group to build a 400.0MW pumped hydro storage power station in the Arabian Gulf with a storage capacity of approximately 2,500MWh (Mega Watt per Hour). QATAR NEWS  (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar signed a MoU with the Republic of El Salvador in the field of education. The terms of the MoU includes exchange of expertise, experiences, visits and best practices betweend the two countries. (Source: The Peninsula)  Dubai based Emirates NBD reported a 15.5% YoY increase in its net profit to AED 8.4bn (USD 2.3bn) for the financial year 2017. The bank’s net interest income increased by almost 7.0% YoY during the same period, driven by increase in loan and interest rates. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Central Bank’s Governor, H E Sheikh Abdulla bin Saoud Al Thani, stated that the country is planning to invest in the fast emerging financial technology sector and has also developed a roadmap to develop a ‘fintech hub’ in the country. (Source: The Peninsula)  Dubai based Emirates Airlines is planning to raise around USD 1.0bn through a sale of an Islamic bond by H1-18. (Source: Gulf Times)   Dubai based Majid Al Futtaim has completed the expansion works worth AED 643.0mn (USD 175.0mn) at City Centre Ajman. (Source: Trade Qatar National Bank Group has reported a 6.2% YoY an increase in its FY-17 net profit QAR 13.1bn (USD 3.6bn). Total assets increased by 12.7% YoY to QAR 811.1bn (USD 223.0bn), driven a 12.3% YoY increase in loans and advances to QAR 584.3bn (USD 161.0bn) during the same period. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Vodafone Qatar announced that its total mobile customers reached 1.4mn in 3M ending in December-17. The total compensation amounted to QAR 90.0mn for the network outage in July-17. (Source: Arabia)  Dubai based Blockchain startup, ArabianChain, has introduced a new digital asset exchange, which is designed for investors to buy, sell and trade various cryptocurrencies online. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi is planning to build another solar power plant in addition to its USD 870.0mn at Sweihan plant, which is expected to become the world’s largest solar project. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi unveiled the world’s largest reserve of high quality desalinated water, which is secured in a network of 315 recovery wells Gulf Times)  Masraf Al Rayan, has reported a decline in its net profit by 2.3% YoY to QAR 2.03bn in the financial year 2017. Total assets rose by 12.5% YoY to QAR 102.9bn with a cash dividend of 20.0% for shareholders during the same period. (Source: QE) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 17 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2290 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.4500 EUR/QAR 4.4754 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3822 JPY/QAR 0.0330 USD/CHF 0.9595 GBP/QAR 5.0333 USD/CAD 1.2435 CHF/QAR 3.7952 AUD/USD 0.7961 CAD/QAR 2.9284 NZD/USD 0.7268 AUD/QAR 2.8990 USD/INR 63.5425 INR/QAR 0.0573 USD/TRY 3.7968 TRY/QAR 0.9591 USD/ZAR 12.2813 ZAR/QAR 0.2965 USD/BRL 3.2241 BRL/QAR 1.1295 FX Commentary The USD inched lower against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.6% lower at 90.393. The dollar remained supported earlier during the day, as continuous decline in the greenback paused for a while. The EUR remained broadly unchanged against the USD, after the German consumer price inflation data came in line with expectations. The EUR remained on the backward footing for quite some time during yesterday’s session, amid reports that some members of the centre-left Social Democrats party voted against the formation of coalition with Angela Merkel’s party. The GBP recovered its losses against the USD, after the UK’s inflation came above the central bank’s 2% target. The CHF strengthened against the USD, despite the Swiss central bank Chief stating that the negative interest rates would remain for quite some time. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.56 1.73 2.19 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.02 2.15 2.30 2.62 3.00 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.68 1.89 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.16 1.33 1.63 1.83 2.61 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.13 2.40 2.98 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.48% 2.03% 4.47% 3.01% 3.10% 3.19% 2.37% 2.49% 2.55% 2.84% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 1.3 Turkey 163.1 (29.0) UK 17.9 (4.3) Brazil 147.3 (78.5) Germany 10.4 (6.3) Egypt 308.8 (98.7) France 17.9 (5.3) Abu Dhabi 54.8 (7.1) Italy 106.9 (41.7) Bahrain 266.7 25.6 Greece 338.2 (265.2) Dubai 118.2 (9.7) Russia 111.0 (55.5) Qatar 96.7 (10.2) Japan 21.8 (5.8) Saudi Arabia 85.8 (19.9) 2.22% 2.56% 2.48% 2.42% 2.0% 1.0% 2.21% 2.04% 1.87% 2.66% 2.45% 1.45% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 13:00 Eurozone CPI YoY 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 17:15 US Industrial Production MoM 18:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Dec F 1.40% 1.50% Jan-12th - 8.30% Dec 0.50% 0.20% Jan-17th 1.25% 1.00% Nov F - 0.60% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Qatar National Bank Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) 12,648.6 30.0 1.3 NA NA NA 816.0 20.8 Masraf Al Rayan Emirates Islamic Bank Emirates NBD YoY (%) QoQ (%) 2,876.7 6.1 (20.0) 466.1 (9.6) (14.0) 16.5 203.5 NA 82.2 3,458.5 (31.3) (38.0) 2,175.6 17.2 (4.4) Bank Sohar NA NA NA 6.5 5.5 (12.2) Ahli Bank NA NA NA 6.9 (18.5) (5.3) Al Batinah Power Oman Oil Marketing Company Al Izz Islamic Bank 9.4 (14.5) (61.8) (3.0) 11.1 NA 138.7 21.8 6.6 (6.8) NA NA NA NA NA 0.2 NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 17 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 11th January 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 9.5 2.4 5.6 4.7 4.5 0.0 4.8 6.8 2.4 6.3 3.4 6.5 3.7 6.1 4.2 6.4 0.0 11.5 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.5 5.3 4.9 3.8 4.4 4.1 2.5 7.0 6.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 2.5 3.1 6.0 2.8 7.1 3.9 0.0 7.7 5.1 3.6 0.0 3.0 3.4 5.7 6.0 5.4 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 1.8 0.9 1.7 0.8 2.5 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.0 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 3.7 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 2.1 0.7 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 45.1 24.6 9.0 75.0 10.7 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 10.9 9.5 22.3 11.0 6.0 34.4 14.9 35.8 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.8 11.3 6.0 12.4 12.7 (H) ( ) 11.5 24.8 15.9 12.5 20.2 10.5 11.5 18.9 31.5 9.1 27.2 65.7 13.8 27.6 10.3 17.6 55.7 9.5 14.0 16.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.1 13.1 12.1 21.4 14.4 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.3 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.0 Stock Price (QR) 35.0 29.0 14.9 31.5 41.0 13.5 42.5 11.2 6.6 99.0 59.0 133.0 8.0 61.4 80.6 148.0 23.9 109.4 6.5 7.0 65.5 78.0 9.2 18.8 6.1 106.0 13.7 184.0 40.6 43.1 64.0 14.0 14.1 60.5 48.5 58.5 35.0 12.7 8.8 16.3 96.5 8.2 47.5 17.7 58.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4