GCC Daily Market Update - 16 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 16 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,656.3 24,360.1 6,628.3 7,264.6 12,442.4 5,315.0 109,604.0 21,778.7 30,808.4 3,159.1 34,192.7 (7.7) (122.9) (27.9) 6.2 27.4 5.8 (631.4) 118.5 (22.9) (21.1) 91.5 (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) 0.1 0.2 0.1 (0.6) 0.6 (0.1) (0.7) 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 (4.6) 1.5 2.4 (0.3) 3.7 (0.6) (1.5) 3.6 (5.5) (3.7) 0.0 (5.0) (4.3) 3.0 (4.5) 0.4 8,891.9 7,972.5 4,699.4 3,150.9 4,801.9 4,776.6 1,292.5 1,673.9 3,649.9 (26.6) 148.4 46.4 56.5 NA NA 1.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.3) 1.9 1.0 1.8 NA NA 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 3.7 1.3 2.5 1.4 (3.3) 0.1 (2.0) 1.3 1.0 4.3 10.3 6.8 (6.5) NA (6.3) (2.9) 5.1 0.3 72.6 67.4 2.7 1,344.8 307.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.8 0.5 0.2 2.2 2.9 0.4 1.7 1.3 7.4 10.6 (7.1) 2.7 (7.1) Global The US equity market ended lower on Friday, as geopolitical concerns surrounding Syria more than offset the encouraging set of earnings data reported by the leading Banking firms in the nation. The S&P 500 index fell 0.3%, driven by losses in Financial sector stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced by 0.1%, as the as investors watched for developments in the Syria while also assessed the easing pressures around the trade war between the US and China. The UK’s benchmark rose 0.1%, as gains metal prices supported Mining stocks on the index. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark rose by 0.6%, as weakness in JPY supported the Exporters. The Chinese benchmark declined 0.7%, after the nation reported an unexpected trade deficit for March-18. GCC GCC equity markets ended higher during yesterday. The Saudi index continued its upward trajectory by gaining 1.9%, supported by major gains in Petrochemical sector. In Dubai, amusement park operator DXB Entertainment gained 1.4% after it report an increased in number of visitors in Q1-18. The Abu Dhabi index rose by 1.0%, supported by gains in energy producer Dana Gas, amid dividend hopes of the company. The index was also supported by gains in Aldar Properties as the company increased its foreign ownership limit to 49.0% from 40.0%. Qatar The QE index declined by 0.3%, on the back of increased selling pressure from Qatari institutional investors. Selling was seen strong especially within mid and microcap segments in the market. Trade turnover and volumes remained higher, where the Industrials, Banking and Telecom sectors together accounted for about 82% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 45 exchanged hands of which, 22 declined, 19 advanced and 4 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.2 1.3 4.9 57.3 DSM 20 13.2 1.3 4.9 39.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.6 1.8 3.3 1,117.3 UAE (ADX) 12.1 1.3 5.0 27.3 UAE (DFM) 11.1 1.1 5.8 29.3 Kuwait (KSE) 15.1 1.1 5.7 74.0 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.0 5.0 8.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.7 0.8 6.3 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Aamal Co Al Ahli Bank Qatar Fuel Qsc Widam Food Co Ezdan Holding Group Top Losers Qatar Cinema & Film National Leasing Qatar German Mesaieed Petrochem Qatar Navigation Close Price 10.9 31.0 122.6 60.8 10.7 0.5 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 4.9 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 25.7 (16.5) 20.1 (2.7) (11.2) (24.7) (6.9) (9.7) (4.7) (32.0) 516.7 5.9 235.2 3.5 111.2 13.7 10.1 12.6 10.1 16.6 22.6 10.0 5.5 16.1 52.0 (2.4) (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) (0.9) (9.6) (3.7) (2.7) (1.8) (1.7) (9.6) (6.6) (14.9) 27.6 (7.0) (31.5) (45.2) (43.2) 8.3 (30.5) 0.3 393.6 35.4 737.2 13.5 18.1 132.6 NA 18.5 12.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,891.9 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 17/Jan 0.0 31/Jan 14/Feb 28/Feb Index Volume (mn) 14/Mar 28/Mar 11/Apr Index Value Closing Level 2,968.3 5,567.4 3,076.4 3,043.6 1,848.7 1,105.0 1,712.3 1D Change (%) (0.4) 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.0 (0.4) (1.3) Buy (%) 55.6 18.3 73.9 16.7 9.4 26.1 Sell (%) 38.8 46.0 84.8 9.4 5.8 15.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 16 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS  Dubai based Meraas has partnered with US hospitality firm Caesars Entertainment Corporation to build Caesars Palace which would consist of two luxury hotels, a conference Centre and a beach club in Dubai’s manmade island Bluewaters. (Source: Arabian Business)  US government is planning to support the USD 13.0bn capital increase in the World Bank, which will reform the bank’s lending rules and increase China’s shareholding in the institution. (Source: Reuters)   US Vice President, Mike Pence announced that a deal over a renegotiated NAFTA trade pact is likely to take place between US, Mexico and Canada in the next several weeks. (Source: Reuters) Dubai Culture and Arts Authority has launched its platform ArtBank that uses cryptocurrencies to facilitate trading in artworks which is a part of Dubai 10X initiative. (Source: Arabian Business)   Japan is set to propose setting up a new outline regarding trade issues with the US with an aim of rejoining the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) as the US President had earlier indicated that the nation may rejoin TPP if offered better terms. (Source: Reuters) Abu Dhabi based real estate developer Aldar Properties has increased the foreign ownership limit to 49% from 40% which will result in higher liquidity in the stock which and support its growth strategy within and outside emirate. (Source: Trade Arabia)  S&P credit rating agency has raised its Japans’ sovereign outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its A+ rating driven by the country’s stronger economy which would drive towards fiscal improvement. Real estate developer Eagle Hills Sharjah has awarded AED 160.0mn contract to East Coast Contracting and Trading as for its Kalba Waterfront project. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia has been assigned long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of A1 with a stable outlook by Moody’s considering that the fiscal consolidation will continue over the medium term, providing stabilization of the government's debt burden below 30% of GDP.  (Source: Market Insider)  Chinese foreign ministers met his Japanese counterpart in Tokyo with an aim to improve the relations between the two countries considering the imposition of trade tariffs by the US. (Source: Newsadvance) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based Acwa Power has entered into an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction contract with China’s Shanghai Electric for the 700MW fourth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park which has a total capacity of 5,000MW with an investment of USD 13.6bn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s balance of broad money (M2) increased 8.2% YoY to CNY 173.9 tn during March-18 while the narrow money (M1) increased by 7.1% to CNY 52.4tn. (Source: PBOC)  Turkey has received a loan of USD 91.5mn from the World Bank for the sustainable cities project in the nation. (Source: AA)   The state of the Turkish banking sector remains strong and resilient enough to withstand the credit levels which has reached TRY 2.2tn in the recent period, the Head of the Turkey’s central bank stated. (Source: Bahrain based APM Terminals which is the operator of Khalifa Bin Salman Port has appointed Bo Lange as the new COO to lead the ports operations including technical, marine and IT services. (Source: Zawya)  Bahrain based provider of alternative investment products Investcorp has acquired US auto body parts supplier KSI Trading Corp. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman Power and Water Procurement Company has entered into an agreement with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power for the construction of the Salalah Water Desalination Plant at a total cost of OMR 60mn. AA) GCC NEWS  Asset quality of the Islamic banks operating in the GCC remained better with a NPL ratio of 2.1% as compared to 2.9% of the conventional banks in 2017, according to Moody's. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Prime Minister of the UAE has announced a number of new measures to boost three key sectors of the economy which are housing, SMEs and retail by providing time-sharing ownership of property and offering government contracts to SMEs. (Source: Arabian Business     German industrial company, Siemen’s will invest USD 500.0mn in Middle East over the next three years which includes building two new Internet of Things complexes in Dubai to complement its airport logistics. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai government plans to launch a local online marketplace for SMEs and home-based e-traders in Q3-18 to support licensed SMEs in the nation. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai based real estate developer Deyaar Development’s revenue increased 23.9% YoY to AED 176.0mn (USD 48.0mn) for Q1-18 due to major progress in its iconic projects. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based investment firm National Bonds Corporation has entered into a strategic deal with Dubai based insurance provider Islamic Arab Insurance Company (Salama), whereby the customers of the former would have access to tailor-made Takaful protection packages. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai based mall operator, Majid Al Futtaim is expected to launch its flagship community project - Tilal Al Ghaf which consists of free hold residences including apartments, townhouses, bungalows and luxury villas. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based financial institution Mashreq Bank has set up a multicurrency certificate of deposit programme worth USD 1.0bn in Hong Kong, China aimed at providing access to new liquidity options in the Asia-Pacific region. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Times of Oman) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s public debt as percentage of GDP is expected to decline to 55.6% by 2020 from the expected 56.2% in 2018 led by improving GDP according to a report by Focus Economics. (Source: Gulf Times)  Credit rating agency, Capital Intelligence has affirmed Qatar Islamic Bank’s financial strength rating of ‘A’ and kept the outlook stable led by decent capital adequacy including a strong and improved CET-1 ratio. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Financial Center leadership met 10 Singapore entities to discuss strategic business partnerships between Singapore and Qatar. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar’s lifting of the North Field moratorium in April-17 to an increase in production and export of LNG is expected to result in an increase in the national income according to Qatar National Bank. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Islamic bank’s net profit increased by 12.6% YoY to QAR 625.2mn in Q1-18 led by strong growth in the bank’s core activities. Total assets increased by 5.9% to QAR 151.8bn. (Source: Gulf times)  QIIB’s net profit increased by 7.1% YoY to QAR 253.2mn led by success of its strategy to focus on the local market. Total assets increased by 11.3% YoY to QAR 50.4bn. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Development Bank launched its ‘SME Toolkit: Policies and Procedure Guidelines for SME Owners” aimed at supporting the country’s entrepreneurs and small and medium-sized enterprises. (Source: Gulf times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 16 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2361 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.3500 EUR/QAR 4.5013 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4268 JPY/QAR 0.0339 USD/CHF 0.9622 GBP/QAR 5.1957 USD/CAD 1.2608 CHF/QAR 3.7846 AUD/USD 0.7764 CAD/QAR 2.8882 NZD/USD 0.7365 AUD/QAR 2.8273 USD/INR 64.7150 INR/QAR 0.0563 USD/TRY 4.0973 TRY/QAR 0.8888 USD/ZAR 12.0730 ZAR/QAR 0.3016 USD/BRL 3.4230 BRL/QAR 1.0638 FX Commentary The USD reversed its direction to end slightly higher against the basket of major currencies as the dollar index ending marginally higher at 89.78. Easing tension of war between US and Syria supported the greenback. Moreover, comments from Boston Fed President that the central bank need to go for three more rate hikes during this year also supported the USD. The JPY weakened against USD, weighed by the shift of investors from safe haven currencies after the ease in tension of war between US and Syria. However, the losses remained limited, after the S&P Global Ratings revised the nation’s outlook ‘positive’ from ‘stable’. The GBP inched higher against the USD, amid persistent expectations that the Bank of England would lift its interest during its next meeting. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.74 1.90 2.35 2.73 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.27 2.33 2.45 2.65 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.91 2.05 2.32 2.72 2.0% EIBOR 1.37 1.75 1.94 2.44 3.04 BMIBOR 1.63 1.90 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.81 2.00 2.50 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.16% 1.36% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.85% 3.09% 3.32% 1.82% 2.09% 2.27% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.37% 2.84% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 27.0 (1.3) Turkey 204.2 25.2 UK 18.6 (7.7) Brazil 169.7 (13.4) Germany 11.7 (1.4) Egypt 277.4 (69.1) France 19.2 (3.2) Abu Dhabi Italy 101.6 (38.3) Greece 341.5 Russia 144.2 Japan 26.7 2.68% 2.87% 2.84% 2.81% 2.0% 1.54% 2.21% 2.04% 1.89% 2.91% 2.49% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 65.9 2.7 Bahrain 289.2 46.4 (190.5) Dubai 113.5 (20.5) 13.6 Qatar 89.1 (12.3) (11.3) Saudi Arabia 90.7 5.8 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Apr 18.6 Prior 22.5 15:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Mar 0.40% (0.10%) 23:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb - $62.1b 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Feb F - 1.40% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Feb F - 4.10% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) National Leasing Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 45.2 (1.0) 87.8 1.2 74.2 (94.7) Jarir Marketing Co NA NA NA 219.1 (1.1) (13.0) Bank Muscat NA NA NA 44.8 1.3 (3.8) Bank Dhofar NA NA NA 13.6 8.6 5.9 Ooredoo Oman 68.0 0.3 (1.9) 8.2 17.9 3.4 Bank Sohar NA NA NA 8.9 48.6 40.1 Deyaar Development NA NA NA 40.0 25.7 32.7 Ominvest NA NA NA 8.3 0.9 71.4 Ahli Bank NA NA NA 7.1 36.4 2.8 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 16 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 12th April 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 3.0 0.0 11.7 3.6 6.8 5.6 4.8 0.0 4.1 7.7 4.2 6.9 4.7 8.0 6.0 6.2 4.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 7.1 8.1 6.5 5.8 0.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.9 2.3 7.9 8.3 4.3 0.0 6.2 3.6 4.7 7.1 4.1 7.4 4.7 0.0 8.9 5.8 4.2 0.0 3.3 4.1 6.8 6.6 6.4 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.2 2.0 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.4 3.2 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.5 2.0 1.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.5 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 4.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.0 22.4 19.6 7.2 (M) ( ) 7.3 13.2 166.0 (M) ( ) 10.2 9.4 10.1 24.3 10.7 4.5 26.4 14.2 20.1 12.5 (M) ( ) (M) ( ) 10.0 5.3 11.4 13.1 45.9 11.3 20.7 18.9 13.4 16.3 9.7 10.8 17.7 17.7 14.3 27.4 13.2 11.9 20.3 7.6 16.6 29.7 8.2 11.6 13.5 (M) ( ) 19.2 11.2 9.6 12.9 10.8 12.8 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) ( ) 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) ( ) 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.8 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) ( ) (M) ( ) 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) ( ) 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 7.7 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 40.1 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 4.7 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 30.3 33.3 11.5 25.8 27.6 11.1 35.8 10.4 6.2 104.0 51.8 143.0 7.2 50.0 67.1 137.8 25.0 120.7 5.7 5.6 59.9 80.0 10.4 21.0 5.6 113.5 16.4 197.0 33.2 38.0 54.0 10.2 12.1 36.3 46.5 49.0 33.6 10.6 7.2 14.1 83.0 9.0 41.0 14.7 52.9 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4