GCC Daily Market Update - 15 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,437.9 21,374.6 5,727.1 7,474.4 12,806.0 5,243.3 99,636.3 19,883.5 25,875.9 3,130.7 31,155.9 (2.4) 46.1 (24.8) (26.0) 41.0 (18.5) 336.6 (15.2) 23.8 (23.1) 52.4 (0.1) 0.2 (0.4) (0.4) 0.3 (0.4) 0.3 (0.1) 0.1 (0.7) 0.2 1.1 1.7 (1.1) (0.6) 1.5 (0.8) 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 8.9 8.2 17.8 4.6 11.5 7.8 27.5 4.0 17.6 0.9 17.0 9,190.0 6,853.5 4,535.6 3,450.8 6,779.4 5,300.7 1,327.0 1,593.6 3,293.8 94.5 32.9 (2.0) 8.9 2.7 (13.0) (0.5) (0.9) 1.9 1.0 0.5 (0.0) 0.3 0.0 (0.2) (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 (7.2) (0.3) 2.4 3.3 (0.1) (2.2) 0.6 (2.1) 0.5 (11.9) (4.9) (0.2) (2.3) 17.9 (8.3) 8.7 1.6 13.1 47.0 44.7 2.9 1,272.8 257.4 (1.7) (1.7) (0.0) 7.0 (2.3) (3.5) (3.7) (1.1) 0.6 (0.9) (6.5) (7.5) (4.1) 0.1 (0.2) (17.2) (16.8) (20.9) 10.5 2.8 Global US markets ended mostly lower yesterday, after the US Federal Reserve announced its plan to shrink its USD 4.5tn balance sheet, and hiked its benchmark rate by 25 bps. Materials and Energy sector were the lead losers, as WTI futures plunged 3.7%. A rally in Treasuries, amidst weaker inflation numbers, spurred gains in the dividend paying Consumer-staples and Utilities shares, which helped in limiting the overall losses to some extent. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index inched higher, as Technology shares continued recovering their losses for the second straight session. In Asia, Chinese markets closed lower, amid reports that the nation’s regulatory authority might introduce stricter norms, after the Chairman of a leading financial company was detained by the government. GCC GCC markets traded mixed yesterday. Saudi markets climbed 0.5%, helped by gains in Banking shares, which is poised to benefit from the Fed rate hike, which is expected to be imitated by the Saudi Central Bank due to the currency peg. Media and Energy shares were among the other notable gainers. Dubai markets advanced 0.3%. DXB Entertainments rallied, after indicating that it has adopted a new management structure. Abu Dhabi markets traded mostly flat. Dana Gas fell 1.5%, amid heavy trading volume. Omani market inched lower, led by losses in Banking and Industrial sectors. Qatar Qatari markets outperformed its peer GCC indices, helped by buying support from domestic institutional investors and lower selling pressure from Gulf counterparts. Trade turnover and volumes increased, with Telecommunication, Real Estate and Banking sectors together accounting for more than 90% of the total volumes. Real Estate and Consumer Goods & Services sectors rallied 5.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Out of 44 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 31 advanced, 8 declined and 3 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.4 4.1 95.4 10,700 DSM 20 15.2 1.6 3.7 54.0 10,200 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.2 1.6 3.3 709.9 9,700 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.5 82.1 9,200 UAE (DFM) 16.5 1.3 4.1 100.8 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.2 3.9 20.9 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.1 5.5 3.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 5.9 1.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ezdan Holding Group Qatar Fuel Mazaya Qatar Widam Food Co Vodafone Qatar Top Losers Gulf Warehousing Co Dlala Holding Qatar & Oman Inv. Co Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Commercial Bank Close Price 12.4 113.0 11.0 56.4 8.1 0.8 5.5 0.4 2.0 0.3 7.1 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.3 (17.9) (15.3) (20.0) (17.1) (13.4) (29.2) 4,231.2 15.0 (18.4) 304.2 13.8 (14.6) 376.9 23.9 (8.0) 74.6 NA (22.9) 5,955.9 NA 47.5 21.9 8.9 18.3 30.0 (1.3) (0.4) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (2.7) (1.8) (1.1) (1.1) (0.3) (15.2) 1.9 (10.6) (13.3) (3.1) (18.2) 5.0 (19.0) (25.9) (12.4) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 34.9 52.6 264.3 0.2 677.5 13.2 45.9 25.1 36.4 95.1 Qatar DSM Index 11,200 8,700 26/Mar 20.0 9,190.0 10.0 0.0 9/Apr 23/Apr 7/May Index Volume (mn) 21/May 4/Jun Index Value Closing Level 2,809.5 5,433.6 2,842.6 4,069.5 2,011.5 1,142.9 1,948.5 1D Change (%) 0.7 3.1 0.8 0.9 5.2 2.6 0.1 Buy (%) 43.0 30.1 73.2 13.9 13.0 26.8 Sell (%) 43.5 16.7 60.2 13.8 26.0 39.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2017 construction work and to link the refinery with a clean fuel project. GLOBAL NEWS  US Federal Reserve increased benchmark lending rate by 25.0 bps to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% led by strengthening economy, solid job gains and on a largely transitory softness in inflation. It forecasted one more hike this year and expects to begin the normalization of its balance sheet this year, gradually ramping up the pace. (Source: Reuters)  US CPI declined by 0.1% MoM in May-17 driven by sharp decline in energy prices, which decreased by 2.7% in May-17 after jumping by 1.1% in April-17. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1% during the month. (Source: Nasdaq)  US retail sales fell by 0.3% MoM in May-17 due to steep declines in sales by gas stations and electronic and appliances stores, which plunged by 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. (Source: Nasdaq) (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia aims to double its natural gas supplies during the coming decade so as to raise the level of natural gas utilisation at its public facilities to 70.0%, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral resources, Khalid Al Falih said. (Source: Saudi Press Agency)  Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority has approved the capital increase of CHUBB Arabia Cooperative Insurance from SAR 100.0mn to SAR 200.0mn through issue of one bonus share for every existing share. (Source: Mubasher)  Bahrain's central bank raised key interest rates on 1 week deposit facility by 25.0 bps to 1.5% following the US Federal Reserve rate hike. (Source: Reuters)  The Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) announced that the monthly issue of the short-term Islamic leasing bonds, Sukuk Al-Ijara, has been oversubscribed by 148.0%. Subscriptions worth BHD 38.5mn was received for BHD 26.0mn issue having maturity of 182 days. (Source: Mubasher) UK’s regular pay adjusted for inflation declined by 0.6% YoY in the three months to April-17. Excluding bonuses, nominal earnings rose by 1.7 YoY. (Source: The Guardian)  Bahrain expects a budget deficit of BHD 1.3bn (USD 3.4 billion) for 2017 and BDH 1.2bn for 2018 due to the decline in oil prices, a major contributor to Bahrain’s budget. (Source: Mubasher)  Japan's industrial production increased 4.0% MoM and 5.7% YoY in April-17. Capacity utilization increased 4.3% MoM and shipping and stock went up 2.7% and 1.5% respectively. (Source: Market Insider)   The IMF raised its forecast for China's 2017 economic growth to 6.7%, from 6.6%, its third increase in 2017, citing policy support, particularly expansionary credit and public investment. Further it expects the economy to grow at 6.4% annually during 2018-2020. (Source: Reuters) Oman based Bank Muscat’s subsidiary Meethaq Islamic Banking Company got approval from Omani Capital Market Authority for greenshoe option to increase offer size of Meethaq Sukuk Series 1 from OMR 25.0mn to OMR 44.6mn. (Source: Reuters)   China's banks extended CNY 1.1tn in May-17 as household loans, mostly mortgages, rose to CNY 610.6bn in May-17 from CNY 571.0bn in April-17. Broad M2 money supply grew 9.6% YoY in May-17. (Source: Oman's total crude and condensates production increased by 3.4% MoM to 30.0mn barrels in May-17. Total quantities of crude oil exported abroad grew by 5.6% MoM to 800,450 bpd, with China accounting for 80.7% of total exports. (Source: Times of Oman)  Kuwait's central bank kept its discount rate at the current level of 2.8%, despite the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates due to low oil prices and due to the objective of supporting sustainable economic growth. (Source: Reuters)  The Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) announced the issue of 10 year bonds worth KWD 50.0mn. Subscription will begin on 18th June-17. Yield will be determined every 6 months, which will be equal to the rate of return on the securitized operations for the same period, in addition to 112.5 bps. (Source: Mubasher)  Eurozone industrial output grew by 0.5% MoM in April-17 led by rise in energy production. Employment grew by 0.4% QoQ in Q1-17 with 154.8mn people employed. (Source: Reuters)  Reuters)   China’s industrial production edged up 6.5% YoY in May-17. Retail sales increased by 10.7% YoY and fixed asset investment climbed 8.6% YoY in May-17. (Source: Morningstar) Turkey’s military exports were highest to US and Europe with sales of USD 585.0mn and USD 450.0mn respectively. Turkish Defense industry grew by 22.0% to USD 6.0bn in 2016. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  The Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed a MoU with Souq.com to facilitate cooperation between the 2 entities and expand Chamber member’s access to the region’s e-commerce. (Source: Trade QATAR NEWS  Qatar signed an agreement with the US for the purchase of F-15 fighter jets at an initial cost of USD 12.0bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Insurance Company (QIC), is considering 1:10 stock split, under which face value of QIC shares, which is now at QAR 10.0 per share will be reduced to QAR 1.0 after split, said company’s spokesperson. He added that lower price would attract more day traders to participate in the trading activity thereby increasing the liquidity of QIC’s stock. Arabia)  Dubai Investment Development Agency (Dubai FDI) is aiming to increase UAE-Canada engagement and attract Canadian investments into Dubai’s knowledge economy initiatives, CEO of Dubai FDI said. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Mubasher)  Dubai based Azizi Investments has unveiled worth AED 600.0mn Farhad Azizi building project with an overall space of 728,715 sq.m. The project will be constructed in Dubai Healthcare City and is expected to be completed by 2019. (Source: Mubasher)   Dubai based ENOC Group signed an agreement with Winspec Marine, freight-forwarding and logistics in Singapore. Winspec will become a key distributor of ENOC’s marine lubricants in Singapore. (Source:  Mubasher)  The financing for phase 3 of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai has been completed. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s inflation fell 0.7% YoY in May-17 led by decrease in Food and Beverage, Transportation, Restaurants and Hotels. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Aramco has resumed the operations of its refinery in Riyadh which was closed for 80 days from 1st March-17, to complete some Ashghal said the works of the second phase of Ali bin Abi Talib Street Development in New Salata has begun, which comes under Phase 6 of a project to develop roads and roundabouts in different areas of Greater Doha. (Source: Gulf Times) Qatar National Bank (QNB) said that it witnessed no significant outflows of deposits and other funds due to diplomatic rift except for business as usual rollovers and/or maturities. It continues to have a robust liquidity position due to a prudent capital adequacy ratio. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  S&P Global Ratings has placed Ooredoo on Credit watch “Negative” as company’s domestic operations, which account for 25.0% to 30.0% of the group’s revenues and EBITDA will likely suffer from the departure of residents of the countries severing ties with Qatar that were working in Qatar. (Source: Mubasher) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1248 USD/QAR 3.6655 109.5800 EUR/QAR 4.1230 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2781 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9711 GBP/QAR 4.6849 USD/CAD 1.3247 CHF/QAR 3.7746 AUD/USD 0.7585 CAD/QAR 2.7670 NZD/USD 0.7261 AUD/QAR 2.7803 USD/INR 63.7950 INR/QAR 0.0575 USD/TRY 3.4884 TRY/QAR 1.0508 USD/ZAR 12.6249 ZAR/QAR 0.2903 USD/BRL 3.2752 BRL/QAR 1.1192 FX Commentary The USD pared most of its losses, after the US Fed lifted its interest rate and showed confidence that the US inflation would reach its 2.0% target by this year. The greenback had initially come under pressure, after the US consumer prices and retail sales data disappointed market participants, however, the rate hike and the reiteration on the part of the central bank to increase rates for one more time during the year supported the dollar. The GBP started on a strong note on the back of encouraging UK employment data, however reversed its course against the greenback, post a hawkish Fed. The EUR remained higher, after data indicated that industrial production and employment change in the common currency bloc showed signs of improvement. The CAD limited its gains against the USD, as a sharp decline in oil prices weighed on the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 1.15 1.16 1.25 1.74 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.15) QAIBOR 1.75 1.80 1.95 2.30 2.90 SAIBOR NA 1.14 1.35 1.75 2.21 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year EIBOR 0.65 0.86 1.12 1.50 2.10 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.83 2.48 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 KIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 2.34% 2.85% 3.11% 3.37% 1.72% 1.95% 2.13% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.37% 2.0% 1.35% 2.77% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.8 (5.7) Turkey 182.5 (104.5) UK 23.6 (7.7) Brazil 230.1 (64.8) Germany 15.5 (6.4) Egypt 385.0 (68.2) France 25.3 (11.4) Abu Dhabi 46.6 (18.0) Italy 152.1 5.6 Bahrain 229.9 (70.1) Greece 633.4 (294.5) Dubai 121.2 (21.9) Russia 158.8 (72.5) Qatar 91.9 10.4 Japan 25.3 (4.7) Saudi Arabia 97.7 11.2 2.0% 1.53% 1.95% 1.81% 2.40% 1.92% 1.0% 0.0% 2.11% 0.82% 2 Yrs 1.23% 1.06% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.45% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY May F 0.90% 0.90% 09:45 France CPI MoM May F 0.10% 0.10% 09:45 France CPI YoY May F 0.80% 0.80% 11:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY May F 1.50% 1.50% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM May (1.00%) 2.00% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY May 1.90% 4.50% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM May (0.80%) 2.30% 11:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY May 1.60% 4.00% 14:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Jun-15th 0.25% 0.25% 14:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Jun 435b 435b 15:30 US Import Price Index MoM May (0.10%) 0.50% 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Jun 5 (1) 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jun-10 241k 245k 15:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jun 24.9 38.8 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jun-09th - 406.9b 16:15 US Industrial Production MoM May 0.20% 1.00% 23:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr - 59.8b Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 15 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 8.3 1.8 5.7 5.0 3.5 0.0 5.1 7.3 2.4 5.6 3.4 5.7 3.6 6.7 3.6 5.7 0.0 8.3 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.1 5.0 4.2 4.6 3.9 1.9 7.2 5.6 4.2 3.3 4.1 1.7 4.3 5.9 2.3 7.6 4.0 0.0 7.2 5.2 3.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.0 3.4 5.9 5.3 5.3 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.4 1.0 2.3 0.8 2.6 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.4 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.7 3.9 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.2 2.7 2.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.7 2.3 0.5 2.8 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 40.0 46.2 8.8 60.9 11.0 14.7 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 10.4 9.7 25.1 11.1 6.4 33.7 14.2 45.7 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.7 10.8 5.9 11.8 16.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 18.3 16.4 13.9 22.4 9.9 9.8 16.9 36.0 9.5 18.6 14.7 13.9 17.4 9.0 15.1 24.0 10.4 12.5 16.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.6 13.3 10.5 12.6 11.6 13.0 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 3.4 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.5 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 29.1 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.1 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 18.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 26.5 Stock Price (QR) 34.6 30.0 21.9 30.3 55.8 13.2 40.0 14.1 7.8 93.8 55.0 134.0 8.9 69.8 82.5 134.8 27.9 113.0 7.6 9.6 56.4 75.0 11.8 20.2 96.5 13.0 195.0 51.7 41.5 65.1 18.3 14.7 67.9 35.1 59.5 33.0 12.4 11.0 17.4 94.9 8.1 47.5 17.1 65.6 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4