GCC Daily Market Update - 14 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 14 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,373.5 20,881.5 5,394.6 7,367.1 11,990.0 4,999.6 89,429.7 19,633.8 23,829.7 3,237.0 28,946.2 0.9 (21.5) 8.7 24.0 26.9 6.3 (181.7) 29.1 261.0 24.3 NA 0.0 (0.1) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.2) 0.2 1.1 0.8 NA 0.4 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.9 2.2 2.7 0.4 (0.1) 0.7 6.0 5.7 10.9 3.1 4.4 2.8 14.5 2.7 8.3 4.3 8.7 10,361.4 6,787.8 4,382.3 3,501.2 6,711.6 5,715.8 1,370.8 1,643.7 3,102.5 (129.7) (46.3) (54.1) 20.3 (30.5) (25.4) 4.8 (0.1) 7.2 (1.2) (0.7) (1.2) 0.6 (0.5) (0.4) 0.4 (0.0) 0.2 (3.2) (2.6) (3.7) (3.6) (1.1) (1.1) 1.6 (0.2) 0.7 (0.7) (5.9) (3.6) (0.8) 16.8 (1.2) 12.3 3.9 6.7 51.4 48.4 3.0 1,203.1 261.7 (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 1.7 3.0 (0.0) (0.2) 1.2 0.1 1.2 (7.5) (10.3) 8.9 (4.1) (2.9) (9.5) (9.9) (18.9) 4.5 4.8 Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices were mixed on Monday. In US, the DJIA were led lower by Intel, which was pressured by a negative reaction to its USD 15.3bn buyout of self-driving tech firm Mobileye, while Health-care stocks weighed on S&P as investors awaited a Congressional Budget Office analysis of a Republican bill to replace Obamacare. Airline shares were also lower as thousands of flights were cancelled ahead of an expected blizzard in the US Northeast. Nasdaq outperformed its peers on back of superior performance by tech stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher with Mining stocks leading the gainers, on back of rising metal prices. In Asia, Shanghai Composite added 0.8%, as buoyant SUV sales in February boosted the sentiments. Hang Seng posted its biggest gains in nearly four months as top Chinese Officials signaled confidence in China's economic health gave a fillip to the sentiments. GCC Most of the Gulf indices fell on Monday. Saudi Arabian benchmark index ended 0.7% lower weighed by Banking and Insurance stocks. Insurance firm, Amana Cooperative Insurance Co. started on a strong note after it said its accumulated losses had been reduced below 50% of its capital. The stock however closed 2% lower. Dubai’s main index added 0.6% with gainers narrowly outnumbering losers 16 to 14. Shuaa Capital and GFH Financial (its Dubai listed share) rose 3.2% and 7.0% respectively after speculation over their possible mergers. The talks of merger spurred heavy turnover in their shares. Abu Dhabi index ended in red as heavyweight First Gulf Bank dropped 3.6%. Qatar QE index plunged 1.2% on Monday, as foreign institutions turned net sellers, amidst weakening oil prices. Sell-off was prominent in Banking and Industrial counters. In terms of volume, Banking, Telecom and Real Estate sectors together accounting for more than 76% of the total traded. Out 39 stocks traded, 14 rose, 23 fell and 2 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.9 1.5 3.8 153.9 DSM 20 15.2 1.5 3.8 104.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.8 1.6 3.5 885.3 UAE (ADX) 12.5 1.4 5.6 134.3 UAE (DFM) 15.0 1.2 3.9 172.0 Kuwait (KSE) 22.6 1.2 3.5 70.1 Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.1 5.0 17.2 Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.8 4.6 2.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Medicare Group Doha Insurance Co National Leasing Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Gulf Intl Services Top Losers Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Gas Transport Doha Bank Qsc Qatar National Bank Qatar Elect & Water Co Close Price 100.9 18.3 17.8 20.4 28.4 7.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 7.7 5.1 5.0 4.3 2.3 60.4 0.4 16.1 (3.3) (8.7) (8.3) 811.3 43.6 (4.3) 0.3 12.6 10.8 2,596.7 174.6 (24.2) 2.1 17.6 (25.3) 732.4 79.9 30.5 21.6 31.9 144.5 220.1 (1.5) (0.9) (1.0) (4.0) (4.9) (4.7) (4.0) (3.0) (2.7) (2.2) (6.2) (6.3) (8.6) (2.4) (3.0) (29.2) 604.2 37.1 (8.8) 916.4 12.6 (16.3) 1,103.7 9.9 14.4 652.9 11.0 12.1 30.9 15.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,361.4 20.0 10,500 10.0 10,000 9,500 9,000 15/Dec 0.0 29/Dec 12/Jan 26/Jan Index Volume (mn) 9/Feb 23/Feb 9/Mar Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,964.7 6,418.4 3,330.0 4,439.6 2,326.8 1,184.6 2,359.9 1D Change (%) (1.6) 1.4 (1.0) (0.7) (0.6) (0.6) 0.2 Buy (%) 41.0 17.4 58.4 10.5 31.2 41.7 Sell (%) 38.3 24.7 63.0 9.8 27.2 37.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 14 , 2017  The economic policies of US President Donald Trump could hurt global trade and could speed up an increase in US interest rates, ECB policy maker Ignazio Visco said. (Source: Reuters) Abu Dhabi’s state investment fund Mubadala Development has completed a deal to acquire a 20% stake in Bahrain based Investcorp Bank. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Moody's Investors Services said that the United States will retain the rating agency's top-notch debt rating as long as it meets its interest payments even if the government's borrowing cap is reinstated on Thursday. (Source: Reuters) Japan’s Prime Minister has asked Saudi Arabia's King Salman to support the listing of Saudi state oil giant Aramco’s shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a Japanese senior government official said.  Saudi Arabia hired Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc as global coordinators on its international Islamic bond sale, according to people with knowledge of the matter. It also picked Deutsche Bank AG and BNP Paribas SA among others as lead managers for the sale. (Source: Times of Oman)  Saudi Arabia’s Olayan Financing Co., which controls the Olayan group’s investments in the Middle East, may offer shares in one or more of its 40 operating companies to the public through a share sale, the company spokesman. (Source: Bloomberg)  China’s policy makers support opening financial markets for capital and investment to flow both in and out of the country, according to central bank Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng. (Source: Bloomberg) GFH Real Estate, the real estate arm of Bahrain based GFH Financial Group, officially started work on its USD 150mn Harbour Row, a new residential and commercial destination in the heart of Bahrain’s capital city Manama. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Turkey's automotive production surged to a record high in the first two months of the year. The number of vehicles produced during the two month rose to 266,490, up 22% YoY, as factories ramped up production of export-focused car models. (Source: Reuters) Kuwait's dual-tranche international debut bond attracted order books in excess of USD 15bn. The debt sale is split into five-year and 10-year tranches. Citi, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan, NBK Capital, and Standard Chartered Bank are the bookrunners. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait wants to extend a global deal to cut oil supply beyond June-17 to rebalance the market and bring crude prices to an acceptable level, its oil minister said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Kuwaiti telecommunications group Zain has reached the final stages of selling its mobile transmitter towers in the country, the company's vice chairman Bader Nasser al-Kharafi said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Total assets of Kuwait banks rose 3.7% YoY to KWD 60.3bn in January17 mainly due to private sector credit which increased 2.7% YoY to KWD36.1 bn. (Source: Kuwait Central bank) GLOBAL NEWS       UK house prices rose at their fastest pace in a year in February-17, with average prices increasing by 0.6% MoM, as high-value London property showed signs of a rebound. However, annual house price inflation continued to fall for the twelfth straight month, dropping 2.4%, the lowest annual rate since 2013. (Source: Bloomberg) Producer prices in Japan were up 0.2% MoM in February-17, which is in line with expectations. On a yearly basis, prices advanced 1.0%. Export prices were down 0.5% MoM and up 2.5% YoY, while import prices jumped 0.7% MoM and 10.1% YoY. (Source: Morning Star) (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The fiscal financing needs of sovereigns in the GCC could amount to USD 275bn between 2017 and 2019, according to S&P Global Ratings. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The co-operative insurance sector in Arab countries has grown to USD 33bn, with the GCC accounting for 25% or USD 9bn, according to the chief of Arab Monetary Fund. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The number of retail visitors has gone up significantly in the UAE, unperturbed by the fall in oil prices and global economic uncertainties according to a market study conducted by Sàvant Data System. (Source: QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s CPI, rose by a marginal 0.1% MoM in February-17, as faster expansion in expenses towards food, beverages and transport was to a greater extent contained by fall in housing and recreation. The CPI inflation was up 0.7% YoY, on costlier transport, education, furniture and miscellaneous goods and services. (Source: Gulf Times)  Medicare Group will replace Mazaya Qatar in the QE index, effective 1st April-17. In its semi-annual review of the indices, the bourse also announced that Qatar First Bank will figure in Al Rayan Islamic Index and All Share Index. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Financial Center (QFC) is aiming to account for at least 5% of the market capitalization of the QSE through the listing of its entities on the local bourse. The QFC also plans to triple FDI flows from its registered firms to more than QAR 200bn in the next five years, according to its chief executive. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Financial Centre is on track to license 1,000 new firms and create 10,000 jobs by 2022, Qatar Financial Centre Authority CEO Yousuf Mohamed Al-Jaida said. (Source: The Peninsula)  United Development Company witnessed strong growth for its units in The Pearl-Qatar as sale of residential units in the project jumped by 81% YoY in 2016. The company is now planning to open a school and a hospital at The Pearl Qatar, said a senior official. (Source: The Peninsula)  Al Meera Consumer Goods Company opened its new branch in Al Wakra (East), as part of the company's expansion strategy. (Source: Qatar Trade Arabia)  Dubai real estate assets have given a 120% return to investors in the ten years since the US subprime crisis, according to a new report by Reidin/Global Capital Partners. (Source: Arabian Business)  The registration of any additional clauses to the standard rental agreements in Dubai are likely to be made mandatory on Ejari, the emirate’s official lease registration system. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum approved a new housing policy aimed at providing homes for low-income working people and renovate some old areas in the city. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE based developer ARADA, started by Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal, announced the launch of its first project in Sharjah. With an expected completion date for late 2018, Nasma Residences will offer more than 800 homes plus community facilities. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai’s Majid Al Futtaim obtained a USD 1bn equivalent loan, banking sources familiar with the matter said. The syndicated loan, is a revolving credit facility with a five-year tenor and comprises banks' commitments in both USD and AED. (Source: The Peninsula)  Abu Dhabi telecoms group Etisalat may sell its stake in Etisalat Nigeria, which has defaulted on a USD 1.2bn loan, but wants the company's debt restructured before it does so, sources aware of the issue said. (Source: Arabian Business) Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 14 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0683 USD/QAR 3.6413 114.8800 EUR/QAR 3.8900 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2249 JPY/QAR 0.0317 USD/CHF 1.0072 GBP/QAR 4.4602 USD/CAD 1.3446 CHF/QAR 3.6153 AUD/USD 0.7571 CAD/QAR 2.7081 NZD/USD 0.6924 AUD/QAR 2.7568 USD/INR 66.1050 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 3.7415 TRY/QAR 0.9732 USD/ZAR 13.1376 ZAR/QAR 0.2772 USD/BRL 3.1529 BRL/QAR 1.1549 FX Commentary The US dollar index was slightly stronger against other major currencies, as investors turned their attention to the imminent interest rate hike due this week. Bargain hunting, amidst losses in the currency on Friday, despite a robust US jobs report, also supported strength in the greenback. The CAD rose against its US counterpart as a narrower gap between Canadian and US yields offset lower prices for oil, one of Canada's major exports. GBP held gains against the dollar rising 0.4% as Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence referendum in late 2018 or early 2019, once the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU becomes clearer, thereby reducing political uncertainty. Against the yen, the dollar was little changed ahead of Bank of Japan’s policy decision with the market not expecting any significant change to the BoJ's generally dovish policies. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.68 0.85 0.89 1.12 1.82 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) QAIBOR 1.26 1.41 1.61 1.89 2.61 SAIBOR NA 0.92 1.31 1.74 2.21 EIBOR 0.56 0.69 0.96 1.37 2.10 BMIBOR 0.60 0.78 1.25 1.75 2.43 NA NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 1.37% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 2.58% 2.23% 2.81% 1.71% 1.5% 1.01% -0.5% 2 Yrs 1.40% 1.59% 1.80% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current 2.23% Last Year 2.13% 2.43% 2.62% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.63% 3.20% 5 Yrs Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change US 25.2 0.0 Turkey 235.8 UK 28.1 (3.1) Brazil 233.2 (43.7) Germany 18.7 3.0 Egypt 333.2 (147.5) 61.4 33.6 Abu Dhabi 40.6 (26.0) 187.5 54.7 Bahrain 219.4 (164.8) France Italy 30 Yrs 3.54% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.41% 3.18% 1.92% 2.0% Source: Bloomberg 3.5% 2.82% Greece (11.8) 1,031.3 (68.1) Dubai 118.4 (32.4) Russia 170.8 (38.0) Qatar 64.2 (22.4) Japan 23.1 (8.8) Saudi Arabia 93.0 (49.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Jan F -- (0.80%) 13:00 Germany 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Mar 13 10.4 ZEW Survey Current Situation Mar 78 76.4 10:00 Germany CPI YoY 15:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Feb F 2.20% 2.20% Feb 0.10% 10:00 Germany 0.60% CPI MoM Feb F 0.60% 10:00 0.60% Germany CPI EU Harmonized YoY Feb F 2.20% 2.20% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Jan F -- 3.20% 10:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized MoM Feb F 0.70% 0.70% 15:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Feb 1.90% 1.60% 15:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Feb 0.20% 0.40% 07:30 Japan Capacity Utilization MoM Jan -- 0.60% 13:00 Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Mar -- 17.1 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 11.3 1.4 (55.3) (2.7) (2.6) (136.5) Al Suwadi Power Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 14 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 0.0 0.0 9.4 1.5 5.3 4.8 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.7 5.8 2.2 5.2 3.2 3.0 4.8 5.2 4.1 4.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.7 5.3 5.3 4.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.5 3.5 4.1 3.4 1.7 6.9 4.6 3.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.3 1.8 3.5 5.4 2.2 7.2 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.9 4.3 3.5 0.0 2.8 3.1 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.5 0.8 2.5 0.9 2.6 0.8 2.5 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.0 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.5 1.1 1.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 3.9 0.8 1.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 2.1 1.3 2.9 2.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.9 1.7 0.7 1.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.7 23.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.8 89.7 12.0 15.0 (H) (‫)م‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.1 13.3 10.8 22.5 11.8 43.6 7.2 17.6 35.7 15.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.5 12.9 6.7 13.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 78.8 23.2 18.5 15.7 26.8 10.7 10.9 21.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.7 19.6 17.1 15.5 19.0 8.4 22.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.0 15.7 14.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.4 14.9 12.6 13.0 13.0 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.6 2.3 11.7 10.0 0.7 8.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.3 36.1 56.5 70.1 21.6 70.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 22.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 35.2 46.9 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 30.8 16.9 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 26.5 Stock Price (QR) 37.0 30.5 22.6 31.9 65.0 14.2 41.6 17.8 9.2 101.0 68.7 144.5 9.6 100.9 84.0 174.9 24.4 135.7 9.7 10.5 65.5 85.2 14.5 28.4 113.3 14.6 220.1 59.8 43.5 79.0 20.4 18.3 72.9 42.9 65.4 34.8 15.3 13.8 21.2 100.5 9.0 52.4 21.6 81.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4