GCC Daily Market Update - 14 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 14 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,662.9 24,640.5 6,553.9 7,168.0 12,196.5 5,109.2 114,494.5 21,244.7 29,839.5 3,185.0 34,300.5 6.9 39.2 30.0 (9.1) (86.3) (30.8) (327.1) (137.9) 379.9 30.8 294.7 0.3 0.2 0.5 (0.1) (0.7) (0.6) (0.3) (0.7) 1.3 1.0 0.9 (5.7) (5.8) (5.7) (4.9) (7.5) (6.8) (4.2) (8.0) (9.3) (8.5) (4.6) (0.4) (0.3) 2.5 (6.8) (5.6) (3.8) (0.7) (6.7) (0.3) (3.7) 0.7 8,987.5 7,412.6 4,600.4 3,341.5 6,670.3 5,003.7 1,353.0 1,639.9 3,593.2 NA (13.0) (9.5) 26.5 (37.1) 0.8 5.8 2.6 9.9 NA (0.2) (0.2) 0.8 (0.6) 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 (2.4) (3.1) (0.0) (1.6) (0.3) 0.1 0.2 (1.5) (6.2) 5.4 2.6 4.6 (0.8) 4.1 (1.9) 1.6 3.0 (1.1) 62.7 59.2 2.6 1,328.1 316.3 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 3.9 7.6 0.2 (0.2) 1.7 0.3 2.5 (9.1) (8.6) (13.1) (0.8) (1.1) (6.1) (2.1) (11.8) 1.4 (4.2) Global US equity markets continued its upward trajectory for the third consecutive session yesterday, as major indices continued to recover from last week’s selling pressure. The S&P 500 inched 0.3% higher, buoyed by strength in Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary and Financials stocks. However, shares of Hospital suppliers fell, amid reports that Amazon is ramping up its medical supply business. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.6% lower, as weakness in Utilities and Telecommunication stocks weighed on the index. The UK benchmark ended marginally lower by 0.1%, however, gains in Mining stocks on account of strong metal prices, limited the broad market weakness. The Japanese benchmark declined 0.7%, on account of strength in JPY. The Chinese and Hong Kong benchmark ended higher, ahead of the commencement of Lunar New Year holidays. GCC GCC equity markets ended mixed during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark inched 0.2% lower, weighed by selling pressure in Insurance stocks. Saudi Investment Bank fell 1.4% after MSCI announced to delist the stock from its Saudi Arabian index at the end of February-18. Riyad Bank gained 0.9% after the lender reported upbeat Q4-17 earnings. The Dubai benchmark gained 0.8%, as Emaar Malls and Aramex advanced after reporting higher-than-expected Q4-17 net income. Qatar The Qatari market remained closed yesterday on account of a holiday. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.2 4.8 63.6 DSM 20 14.1 1.3 4.6 50.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.6 1.7 3.3 848.7 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.3 4.4 34.2 UAE (DFM) 20.9 1.2 5.2 66.8 Kuwait (KSE) 15.5 1.1 5.2 36.6 Oman (MSM) 11.9 1.0 5.2 3.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 5.8 2.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers NA NA NA NA NA Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 8,987.5 9,000 15.0 10.0 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 19/Nov 3/Dec 17/Dec 31/Dec Index Volume (mn) 14/Jan 28/Jan 0.0 11/Feb Index Value Closing Level NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1D Change (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Buy (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Sell (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 14 , 2018 40,000 bpd by 2020, in order to increase its output. GLOBAL NEWS  White House is planning to nominate Cleveland Federal Reserve President, Loretta Mester, for the post of Central Bank’s Vice Chairman, according to sources aware of the matter. (Source: CNBC)  UK’s consumer price index increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.0% YoY, while it decreased by 0.5% MoM in January-18, driven by increase in prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services which was offset by decrease in prices of motor fuels. (Source:  Bank of Sharjah has reported 34.1% YoY decrease in its net profit to AED 265.0mn for FY-17, driven by increase in net Impairment loss on financial assets by 240.3% YoY to AED 211.0mn. The bank’s net interest income decreased by 10.7% YoY to AED 466.0mn during the same period. (Source: Emirates 247)  Sharjah based developer, Arada, has awarded construction contracts to Intermass Engineering & Contracting Company and Klampfer Middle East Company for construction of the Phase II of Nasma Residences. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah based industrial packaging company, Elan Incorporated, is establishing a production facility for tight head and open top steel drums with a capacity of up to 220 litres (55 gallons) in order to boost the petrochemical and chemical industries in UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia would receive export credit agency backed debt financing worth USD 1.6bn over the next 12 to 18 months from Italy based export credit agency, SACE, the agency’s CEO stated. (Source: Arabian ONS)    UK’s produce input price index, i.e. price of materials and fuel, increased by 4.7% YoY and 0.7% MoM, while producer output price index increased by 2.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM in January-18. (Source: ONS) Japan's gross domestic product increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% QoQ while it remained unchanged on yearly bases in Q417. Private consumption increased by 0.5% QoQ while business spending increased by 0.7% QoQ during the same period. (Source: iii) Turkey’s industrial turnover index increased by 27.2% YoY and 1.5% MoM in December-17, driven by yearly increase in manufacturing sector by a 27.4% and mining and quarrying sector by 20.4%. (Source: Business)  TurkStat)  Turkey’s treasury department raised a total of TRY 8.5bn (USD 2.2bn) via 10-month zero coupon treasury bills worth TRY 969.0mn, 5-year fixed coupon bonds worth TRY 5.0bn and 10-year CPI indexed government bond worth TRY 2.6bn. (Source: AA)  UAE and India have signed an agreement which would enable businesses of both the countries to bypass the USD or any other foreign currency to directly trade in AED and INR. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Al Ahli Holding Group has secured an Islamic club financing facility worth AED 1.3bn (USD 340.0mn) to use it for Dubai Outlet Mall’s expansion and general corporate purposes. (Source: Trade  Saudi Arabia based Al-Tayyar Travel Group has reported 39.8% YoY decrease in its net profit to SAR 497.0mn for FY-17. The company’s revenue decreased by 1.4% YoY to SAR 2.1bn (USD 562.0mn) during the same period. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Arabia would witness openings of 84 new hotels, which would be offering 27,281 rooms, during 2018. This accounts for the 60.0% of the current construction projects in pipeline, according to Tophotels Projects report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s Central Bank has raised OMR 37.0mn by issuing treasury bills with a maturity period of 91 days. The average accepted price amounted to OMR 99.6 for every OMR 100.0, while the average yield reached 1.4%. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s Ministry of Transportation and Telecommunications is planning to introduce a new maritime code in order to boost the country’s maritime transportation and logistics sector. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based financial services provider, SHUAA Capital, has reported a net profit of AED 74.0mn (USD 20.2mn) in FY-17 as compared to a net loss of AED 132.5mn in FY-16, driven by increase in the profits from asset management division by 105.0% YoY to AED 17.0mn. (Source: Arab News)   Dubai based Azizi Developments announced that the construction of the 3rd and 4th phases of its canal development plant, Azizi Riviera, worth AED 12.0bn (USD 3.3bn), would be starting by the end of February-18. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Gulf General Investment Company has reported 17.9% YoY increase in its net loss to AED 100.2mn in Q4-17. During the FY-17, the company’s net loss increased by 50.7% YoY to AED 233.9mn. Arabia)  Dubai based Nakheel Properties has awarded a contract worth AED 79.7mn (USD 21.7mn) to Ghantoot Gulf Contracting company for building The St. Regis Beach Club as part of Nakheel’s 52-storey, The Palm Tower in Dubai. (Source: Mubasher)  Dubai based theme park company, DXB Entertainments, is in talks with Dubai Islamic Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Qatar National Bank and other banks in order to restructure its loans worth USD 1.2bn. (Source: Mubasher)  Dubai Expo 2020 Bureau has signed an agreement with Dubai Electricity and Water Authority and Siemens Company to introduce a project for the country’s first solar driven hydrogen electrolysis facility. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based Al Dhafra, a joint venture between Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Korean National Oil Corporation and GS Energy, would produce 20,000 bpd of oil by mid-2019 and would increase it to Kuwait Energy has signed an agreement with Dragon Oil Company, a subsidiary of Emirates National Oil Company Limited, to sell its 15.0% stake in Block 9 in Iraq. (Source: Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s liabilities to non-residents (inward investment) decreased by 10.2% QoQ to QAR 665.0bn in Q3-17. The country’s assets with nonresidents (outward investment) decreased by 6.7% to QAR 392.2bn, according to the survey conducted in compliance with IMF’s Special Data Dissemination System. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar’s two exchange traded funds (ETFs) have received a regulatory approval to get listed on the local bourse. The ETF’s will track QSE 20 ALL Share Index and QSE Al Rayan Islamic Index. The ETF’s would be listed by Q1-18. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar’s stable growth in non-oil economy indicates the country’s better diversification policy, according to IMF’s Managing Director. He further added that the country’s non-oil sector is in line with the nonoil growth in the oil importing countries. (Source: The Peninsula)  The ongoing economic bloackade is expected to have a minimum impact on the credit quality of insurers in Qatar, according to A.M. Best, a global insurance rating agency. (Source: Gulf times) (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia based developer, Salman Abdullah Bin Saedan Real Estate Group, is planning for its debut Sukuk issuance with first tranche worth USD 1.0bn. The listing would be on the Irish Stock Exchange, according to Ibdar Bank, who is arranging the sale. (Source: Trade Arabia) GCC NEWS  (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 14 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2382 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.8200 EUR/QAR 4.5089 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3924 JPY/QAR 0.0338 USD/CHF 0.9349 GBP/QAR 5.0704 USD/CAD 1.2592 CHF/QAR 3.8951 AUD/USD 0.7859 CAD/QAR 2.8919 NZD/USD 0.7274 AUD/QAR 2.8619 USD/INR 63.8150 INR/QAR 0.0571 USD/TRY 3.8096 TRY/QAR 0.9559 USD/ZAR 11.9650 ZAR/QAR 0.3043 USD/BRL 3.3011 BRL/QAR 1.1031 FX Commentary The USD ended lower against the basket of major currencies yesterday with dollar index edging 0.6% lower to 89.714. The weakness in the USD was largely due caution exercised by investors ahead of the release of the key US inflation data. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart as Canada’s Chief Negotiator stated that the NAFTA talks have reached little progress so far on major issues. The GBP edged higher on back of upbeat UK inflation data for January-17. The JPY edged higher against the greenback, amid expectations that the changes in Bank of Japan’s board might lead to appointments of hawkish members. The ZAR was marginally higher against the USD, despite South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma remaining in his position ignoring oppositions from his African National Congress party. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.59 1.83 2.32 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.20 2.25 2.40 2.70 3.00 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.60 1.68 1.89 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.19 1.36 1.62 1.88 2.64 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.08 2.33 2.91 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 KIBOR 2.64% 2.10% 4.81% 3.33% 3.41% 3.49% 2.52% 2.72% 2.81% 3.09% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 24.3 (5.6) Turkey 182.3 4.4 UK 17.5 (1.3) Brazil 172.1 (34.3) Germany 10.7 (3.9) Egypt 294.2 (74.8) France 18.7 (2.6) Abu Dhabi Italy 104.7 (36.5) Greece 367.0 Russia 118.9 Japan 18.6 2.35% 2.82% 2.72% 2.62% 2.0% 1.56% 2.40% 2.23% 2.04% 2.91% 2.65% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 60.1 4.0 Bahrain 260.5 24.3 (255.7) Dubai 109.0 (13.1) (34.2) Qatar 93.0 (2.7) (10.9) Saudi Arabia 85.3 (7.8) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA QoQ Period Survey Prior Q4 P 0.60% 0.60% 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16:30 US CPI MoM Feb-09th - 0.70% Jan 0.30% 0.20% 16:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM 02:50 Japan Core Machine Orders MoM Jan 0.20% 0.40% Dec (2.00%) 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Dec F 5.70% - 2.70% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Riyad Bank NA NA NA 974.0 232.0 (9.6) Bank Of Sharjah NA NA NA 7.3 (94.4) (93.3) 142.0 NA (54.7) (10.2) NA (117.0) 27.8 8.6 6.9 2.9 9.9 37.5 Al Ain Ahlia Ins. Co. NA NA NA 7.1 16.1 (64.3) Finance House NA NA NA (4.7) NA NA Dubai Refreshments Company Bmmi Arabian Scandinavian Ins Co Orient Insurance QoQ (%) NA NA NA (3.9) NA NA 396.2 51.7 11.3 55.3 9.6 (29.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 14 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 8th February 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.6 0.0 9.0 3.3 6.3 5.0 5.1 0.0 4.2 6.7 4.7 6.3 4.9 6.2 5.1 6.0 4.7 6.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.2 5.7 7.3 0.0 4.9 3.9 4.3 4.2 2.4 6.9 6.4 4.1 4.7 5.4 3.3 3.3 6.4 3.5 6.9 5.1 0.0 7.5 5.9 4.0 0.0 3.3 4.4 5.8 5.4 5.5 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.7 2.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 3.7 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 5.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 18.7 23.1 9.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.9 14.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 10.9 9.0 27.0 10.4 6.3 31.1 15.1 31.6 15.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.7 5.6 13.8 11.3 37.1 11.5 24.2 16.2 12.6 15.4 10.7 14.0 18.0 29.0 16.5 29.9 61.7 13.0 30.6 10.7 15.3 48.5 9.8 12.9 14.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.7 10.6 11.8 23.6 14.4 13.1 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 13.1 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.0 2.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.7 4.2 1.3 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.0 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.1 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 19.5 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 39.9 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 12.9 19.0 113.5 43.3 12.5 19.8 10.4 55.1 11.4 81.7 21.4 32.4 48.0 24.6 19.5 20.8 28.9 69.8 22.8 35.2 47.5 11.4 12.7 3.0 14.6 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 33.5 27.9 14.0 33.5 30.0 12.0 39.7 9.8 6.5 101.8 60.0 128.0 8.0 65.0 79.0 149.9 21.1 116.0 5.9 6.3 70.2 73.2 8.2 17.0 6.1 103.3 14.0 185.5 31.3 43.7 70.0 12.9 13.9 45.7 45.5 55.0 36.5 9.8 7.6 16.7 87.5 7.0 38.8 17.4 65.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4