GCC Daily Market Update - 11 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 11 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,268.9 19,855.5 5,035.2 7,275.5 11,583.3 4,888.2 77,393.7 19,301.4 22,744.9 3,161.7 26,899.6 0.0 (31.9) 10.3 37.7 19.3 0.7 (0.8) (152.9) 186.2 (9.6) 173.0 0.0 (0.2) 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 (0.0) (0.8) 0.8 (0.3) 0.7 1.3 0.5 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.5 (1.0) 1.0 3.4 1.9 1.0 1.3 0.5 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.5 (1.0) 1.0 3.4 1.9 1.0 10,700.5 7,008.0 4,668.3 3,725.1 6,014.4 5,779.8 1,210.0 1,622.0 2,961.6 (1.6) (73.7) 4.6 3.8 62.5 (17.4) 3.6 14.0 6.4 (0.0) (1.0) 0.1 0.1 1.1 (0.3) 0.3 0.9 0.2 2.5 (2.8) 2.7 5.5 4.6 (0.1) (0.9) 3.2 1.9 2.5 (2.8) 2.7 5.5 4.6 (0.1) (0.9) 3.3 1.8 53.6 50.8 3.3 1,185.5 261.3 (1.3) (1.1) 0.2 0.6 7.4 (2.4) (2.2) 5.6 0.1 2.9 (5.4) (5.1) (12.2) 2.9 4.6 (5.4) (5.1) (12.2) 2.9 4.6 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global indices were mixed on Tuesday. Nasdaq composite index recorded fresh highs, up 0.2% with consumer-focused companies like Banks and Healthcare stocks being among the biggest gainers. Real Estate companies lagged the most during the day. Energy stocks also fell following a drop in crude oil prices. Investors were mostly on the sidelines as they awaited for better clarity from Trump Administration about fiscal stimulus, lower tax and lighter regulation, ahead of his upcoming press conference. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose marginally by 0.1% as gains in Commodity producers offset losses in Utilities and Insurance companies. In Asia, Nikkei closed 0.8% lower, while Hang Seng ended in green boosted on the back of acceleration in China’s producer prices which suggested a better outlook for industrial profits. GCC Most Gulf indices rose on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia’s main index fell 1.0% as some petrochemical producers declined after Brent oil futures retreated about 4% in Gulf trading. Jarir Marketing pulled back 1.5% after gaining 0.2% on the previous day, on back of higher than expected net profit. Dubai main index started on a weak note, but eventually pared most of the losses, to end 0.1% higher with builder- Arabtec rising 1.5%. The Abu Dhabi index also added 0.1%, benefitting from gains in some blue-chip banks. Kuwait’s index gained 1.1% with Kuwait Finance House up 1.8% in unusually heavy trade. Qatar QE index fell marginally by 0.01% on Tuesday on the back of profit booking by local retail investors and their non-Qatari counterparts. Selling pressure was visible in Realty and Industrials counters. Trade turnover and volumes were on the decline, where Real Estate, Banking, Telecom and Industrials sectors together accounting for about 88% of the total volumes. Out of 44 stocks traded, 40 exchanged hands of which 21 rose, 16 fell and 3 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.5 1.6 3.8 67.0 DSM 20 15.5 1.6 3.8 52.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.7 1.6 3.3 1,104.1 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.5 5.2 60.0 UAE (DFM) 12.2 1.4 3.7 248.7 Kuwait (KSE) 20.8 1.1 4.0 156.0 Oman (MSM) 10.9 1.1 5.0 5.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.9 0.4 4.6 4.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Fuel Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Islamic Bank Vodafone Qatar Gulf Intl. Services Top Losers Dlala Holding Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Qatar Islamic Insurance Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Industries Qatar Close Price 154.0 39.1 106.7 9.6 32.1 2.6 0.7 1.4 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 4.0 2.7 2.5 3.2 20.6 91.8 12.3 11.7 425.3 13.9 11.6 111.2 12.1 (18.6) 1,330.4 NA (29.6) 90.9 35.6 22.8 14.8 53.0 21.1 120.0 (0.5) (0.3) (1.0) (0.3) (1.7) (2.1) (2.1) (1.9) (1.4) (1.4) 6.1 2.6 4.7 0.0 2.1 33.7 17.3 (15.9) (24.9) 15.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 12.1 377.7 91.3 5.9 416.5 NA 17.3 13.0 18.2 21.7 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 40.0 10,700.5 10,500 20.0 10,000 9,500 16/Oct 0.0 30/Oct 13/Nov 27/Nov Index Volume (mn) 11/Dec 25/Dec 8/Jan Index Value Closing Level 2,968.4 6,066.1 3,380.3 4,597.0 2,304.6 1,257.4 2,565.3 1D Change (%) 0.3 1.0 (0.2) 0.3 (0.7) 0.2 0.0 Buy (%) 34.0 18.9 52.9 7.2 39.9 47.1 Sell (%) 53.2 16.9 70.1 9.8 20.1 29.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 11 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  The global growth in 2017 is expected to accelerate slightly to 2.7% from 2.3% in 2016 due to recovering oil and commodity prices, however there remains considerable uncertainty around the effects of various policy proposals from Donald Trump, including increased fiscal stimulus and a more protectionist trade stance, the World Bank said.  The Central Bank of the UAE issued the Regulatory Framework for Stored Values and Electronic Payment Systems on 1st January-17 to help facilitate the increased adoption of secure digital payments. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Flydubai said that it is in talks with banks for a club financing facility to fund future infrastructure requirements. Lenders Emirates NBD, Noor Bank and Union National Bank are involved in the preliminary discussions, the Dubai-based carrier said. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: Reuters)  US crude production should increase by 300,000 bpd to average 9.3mn bpd in 2018, largely because of a boost in the offshore Gulf of Mexico, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Output should average 9mn bpd in 2017, up by 100,000 bpd from 2016. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia has hired HSBC as a financial advisor for its plans to privatize construction and management of school buildings, as it seeks to cut state spending in an era of low oil prices, the CEO of a state owned firm said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Germany's BDI industry association does not expect a swift change in the ECB's monetary policy. The current inflation indicators alone are not yet a sufficient pointer to a change in European interest rates as per Markus Kerber, Managing Director of BDI. (Source: Reuters)   China will not allow non-financial firms' debt to rise beyond current levels of 169% of GDP as per Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). China would step up efforts to push forward debt-to-equity swaps this year. (Source: Reuters) Jeddah based Taajeer Co, a financial services provider, announced appointed Shariyah Review Bureau (SRB) to oversee its real-estate, machinery and vehicle trading business from a Sharia perspective. Historically Sharia Certification and supervisory processes has been managed in-house. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Company (KHC) sold its 100% interest in the Movenpick Hotel Ambassador Accra to QG Africa Hotel, a Mauritius-based fund, for a consideration of USD 100mn, its chairman revealed. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Airbus has finalised an agreement to sell more than 60 jets to Saudi Arabian budget carrier Flynas, according to industry sources. The order from Flynas, is expected to cover over 60 A320neo narrow body jets, one of the sources with direct knowledge of the deal said. (Source:  Turkey's central bank cut foreign-exchange reserve requirement ratios by 50bps for all maturities, thus adding some USD 1.5bn in liquidity to the country's financial system and vowed additional steps to stem the Lira losses. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The UAE will spend AED 600bn (USD 163.3bn) over the next three decades in developing the country's energy market, said the PM of UAE. He envisions a plan for clean energy to power 44% of the sector by 2050. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based investment company, Ento Capital Management, revealed plans to reconstruct the AED 1.8bn Wonder Land project which will feature amusement parks, apartments, shops, restaurants and a cultural center. The project would start by end of March-17 and will take 3 years to complete. (Source: Arabian Business)   The UAE operations of air services provider Dnata, a subsidiary of Emirates, continued to grow during 2016 despite challenges in the aviation industry and increased economic pressures around the globe. Arabian Business)  Oman is negotiating with Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to secure a multi-billion dollar deposit in its central bank that would boost its foreign exchange reserves and head off any pressure on the Omani rial, an official confirmed. (Source: Arabian Business)  OMA Emirates, a provider of technology solutions for the payment industry, announced its investment into India-based MobiSwipe, a company that specializes in mPOS solutions. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bin Faqeeh, a Bahrain-based privately-owned real estate investment company, said it will start delivering USD 270mn worth of real estate development projects to the owners during H1-17. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS (Source: Arabian Business)  Investment Corp of Dubai, a state-owned holding company, appointed banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings for the potential sale of Islamic bonds in 2017, according to people familiar with the matter. (Source: Gulf Times)  Sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and Brazilian food processor BRF SA agreed to buy the operations of Turkish poultry producer Banvit in a JV. BRF would take a 60% stake in the venture and the QIA will take 40% in a deal that calculates Banvit's enterprise value at USD 470mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Al Rayan Bank launched Shariah-compliant ‘buy-to-let purchase plans’ (BTLPPs) in the Scottish market. The BTLPPs enhance the bank’s existing home and property finance range for Scotland, which already provides home purchase plans (HPPs) and commercial property finance (CPF). (Source: Gulf Times)  Ahli United Bank was named ‘Best Regional Bank – GCC 2016’ by Capital Finance International. This is the second time AUB has won this prestigious award from the London based publication following the first award in 2014. (Source: The Peninsula)  Manateq, the developer and operator of specialized economic zones, logistic parks, and warehousing parks in the country, awarded a QAR 357mn infrastructure contract for Um Alhoul Economic Zone (Qatar Economic Zone 2) to a Malaysian firm. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Real estate transaction in Qatar for the week ending 5th January-17, were worth QAR 260.5mn, official data showed. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim said it will build a new USD 81.7mn (AED 300mn) shopping mall in Masdar City, Abu Dhabi. The mall is set to open by the end of 2018. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE based online travel agency, Musafir.com, announced the appointment of Rajesh Pareek, as its Group CEO. Mr. Pareek is a former senior executive at Dubai International Financial Centre. (Source: Times) Arabian Business)  Dubai's retail sector added about 260,000 sq. m of new space in 2016, the highest volume since 2010, according to consultants JLL. The consultants further added that Dubai’s hotel market witnessed the completion of approximately 7,000 rooms in 2016, bringing the total hotel stock to 79,000 keys. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Municipality allocated USD 1.91bn (AED 7bn) for development of infrastructure projects for 2017. The storm water tunnel project for the Airport City and the Expo Venue areas will receive USD 1.36bn (AED 5bn) followed by USD 381.5bn (AED 1.4bn) for Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant project, Director general, Dubai Municipality, said. (Source: Arabian Business) Oil demand is expected to grow in Qatar, driven by the transportation and industrial sectors, according to a new report by OPEC. (Source: Gulf 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 11 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0584 USD/QAR 3.6409 115.7700 EUR/QAR 3.8535 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2207 JPY/QAR 0.0314 USD/CHF 1.0170 GBP/QAR 4.4444 USD/CAD 1.3232 CHF/QAR 3.5800 AUD/USD 0.7368 CAD/QAR 2.7516 NZD/USD 0.6990 AUD/QAR 2.6826 USD/INR 67.6825 INR/QAR 0.0538 USD/TRY 3.7897 TRY/QAR 0.9607 USD/ZAR 13.7418 ZAR/QAR 0.2650 USD/BRL 3.1941 BRL/QAR 1.1399 FX Commentary USD rose marginally against the basket of major currencies with dollar index up 0.08%, as investors remained cautious ahead of US President elect- Donald Trump’s first news conference set for Wednesday, where he could be potentially aggressive on issues such as trade policy and bilateral relations with China post taking office on 20th January-2016. The currency got some support from wholesale inventory data which came in slightly better than expected. CAD strengthened slightly against its US counterpart as a jump in housing starts offset weaker oil prices. GBP recovered, after closing to a two month-low the previous day. Political instability in Ireland and concerns of hard Brexit capped the upside. CNY firmed on the back of rising speculations for a more hawkish stance from the People’s Bank of China on the back of acceleration in producer prices for December. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.72 0.76 1.01 1.70 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.32) (0.09) 1.31 1.41 1.57 1.84 2.51 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.24 1.79 2.03 2.41 2.0% EIBOR 0.46 0.62 0.98 1.36 2.07 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 0.0% 2.41% 0.58% 0.42% 1.60% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.93% 2.93% 1.98% 2.33% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.51% 2.98% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.3 7.1 Turkey 286.5 65.2 UK 28.9 (11.6) Brazil 262.0 (43.7) Germany 21.9 3.6 Egypt 450.7 (50.1) France 39.8 1.2 Abu Dhabi 156.7 12.1 2.0% 2.26% 2.10% 1.93% 1.48% 1.0% 2.49% 2.40% 1.95% 1.70% 1.47% Italy 1.00% Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,079.8 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 59.0 (21.1) Bahrain 269.5 (110.9) 85.7 Dubai 140.2 (36.9) Russia 174.4 (45.1) Qatar 79.6 (22.8) Japan 30.0 (7.5) Saudi Arabia 114.9 (56.6) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 08:00 Japan Leading Index CI Period Survey Prior Nov P 102.6 100.8 12:30 UK 12:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Nov (£11150) (£9711) Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Nov (£3000) (£1598) 12:30 12:30 UK Trade Balance Nov (£3500) (£1971) UK Industrial Production MoM Nov 1.00% (1.30%) 12:30 UK Industrial Production YoY Nov 0.70% (1.10%) 12:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Nov 0.50% (0.90%) 12:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Nov 0.40% (0.40%) 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jan-06th - 0.10% 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Jan-09th - 0.10% 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Jan-09th - 5.30% 18:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Dec 0.50% 0.40% 02:50 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Nov ¥1460.0b ¥1719.9b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Yanbu National Petrochemical Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1,849.3 1.0 7.2 602.9 53.4 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 11 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As of 05th January 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.3 0.0 8.4 1.7 5.9 4.5 3.1 0.0 4.0 6.2 1.8 6.0 3.3 7.8 6.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 0.0 8.7 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.8 3.1 4.2 4.4 3.2 2.1 6.5 3.8 4.1 4.8 5.6 2.2 3.0 7.7 2.6 6.4 3.2 1.8 6.9 4.3 2.9 0.0 2.3 2.2 5.3 5.2 4.9 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 2.5 1.0 2.6 1.0 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.2 1.5 3.4 3.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.8 2.7 0.6 2.4 1.7 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 16.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.4 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.7 12.3 11.4 27.6 11.8 20.8 7.3 21.5 14.5 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 14.2 6.2 11.7 14.1 35.6 21.7 19.6 16.2 25.6 11.1 11.4 19.2 17.9 9.0 20.0 4.2 12.8 12.4 13.6 24.1 17.8 14.1 19.3 15.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.6 16.6 13.4 12.2 13.2 14.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.0 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.6 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 32.3 23.0 35.7 63.3 16.9 39.1 16.1 10.1 106.0 64.7 164.9 10.1 64.2 79.8 174.2 30.2 150.0 10.4 11.5 67.0 83.0 14.1 32.2 119.9 16.0 235.0 59.0 46.1 88.0 20.9 17.8 88.0 46.3 52.0 34.3 15.8 15.2 21.8 105.3 9.6 56.7 23.6 95.6 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4