GCC Daily Market Update - 1 August

Transcription

1. August 01 , 2021 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Event Japan Industrial Production MoM US Initial Jobless Claims Jul-24th 385k 400k 424k 1.70 Germany IFO Business Climate Jul 102.5 100.8 101.7 1.60 Japan Jobless Rate Jun 3.00% 2.90% 3.00% 1.50 US FOMC Rate Decision Jul-28th 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 1.40 Italy Manufacturing Confidence Jul 115.3 115.7 114.8 US GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q A 8.40% 6.50% 6.30% Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jul-23rd -- 594.5b 597.4b Canada CPI YoY Jun 3.20% 3.10% 3.60% Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jul P 1.00% 0.90% 1.30% US U. of Mich. Sentiment Jul F 80.8 81.2 80.8 France CPI YoY Jul P 1.00% 1.20% 1.50% Source: Bloomberg 1.30 1.20 19-Jul 12-Jul 05-Jul 28-Jun 21-Jun 14-Jun 07-Jun 26-Jul 1.22 1.10 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  UST 10yr Yield 31-May (6.50%) 24-May Prior 6.20% 17-May Actual 5.00% 10-May Survey Jun P 03-May Period The White House announced that the US will not lift any present travel restrictions due to worries over the highly transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant and increase in coronavirus cases. (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi has lowered business set-up fees by 94.0% to AED 1,000.0 (USD 272.0) as part of efforts to increase competitiveness and ease of doing business in the emirate. (Source: Zawya)  Sharjah reported 96.1% YoY increase in real estate transactions to 40,346 and 40.5% YoY increase in value to AED 12.2bn (USD 3.3bn) till June-21. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  US Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0.3% and would continue its USD 120.0bn monthly bond purchases. (Source: Yahoo Finance)   The Eurozone economy grew by 2.0% QoQ in Q2-21, according to Eurostat. (Source: US News) Fitch Ratings revised outlooks for 6 banks in Saudi Arabia to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’ and affirmed their rating at 'BBB+'. (Source: Fitch Ratings)   The UK government will be exposed to financial risks from its pandemic expenditure worth GBP 372.0bn (USD 511.3bn) for 10 years, as per lawmakers’ reports (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia’s merchandise exports rose by 120.1% YoY in May-21, according to General Authority for Statistics. (Source: Mubasher)  The Ministry of Interior of Saudi Arabia announced that they will be banning unvaccinated individuals from entering public places and events as of 1st August-21. (Source: Mubasher)  The total revenue of Omani hotels in the 3-5 star category decreased by 35.8% YoY to OMR 37.0mn USD 95.8mn) in H1-21, as per NCSI. Hotels occupancy rates rose by 3.7% YoY to reach 34.0%. (Source: Zawya)  IMF stated Bahrain has to work further to get its finances in proper state, even if it manages to get extra regional support. (Source: Reuters)  According to HSBC Bank, Bahrain’s economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2021 and 2022. (Source: GDN Online)  Kuwait is ready to spend nearly KWD 544.0mn (USD 1.8bn) on five strategic infrastructure projects for the 2021-22 period, according to the budget report by Arab Times. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Ports Authority announced the nation’s plan to create logistic cities over an area of 2.0mn square meters to support local economy and attract foreign investment. (Source: Xinhua Net)  The UK is nearing an agreement in principle on a free trade deal with New Zealand, as per UK's trade minister. (Source: US News)  IMF has revised up its growth forecast for UK's economy in 2021 to 7.0%, which is 1.7% points higher than in April-21. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that Japan’s economy has been dragged out of deflation as per the 2.0% inflation target of the latest policy. (Source: Reuters)  China will continue with its present economic policies in H2-21, as per ruling Communist Party’s top decision-making body. (Source: Reuters)  IMF decreased its 2022 growth forecast for India by 300 bps to 9.5% and raised growth projection to 8.5% for 2023. (Source: Financial Express)  Turkey's Central Bank increased the country's inflation forecast to 14.1% for 2021. (Source: Hurriyet Daily) year-end GCC NEWS QATAR NEWS  GCC construction market is worth USD 1.8tn with over 21,000 active projects as of Q2-21, as per BNC Projects Journal. (Source: Trade Arabia)   According to Standard Chartered, the UAE’s economic recovery is gaining momentum due to the fast administration of the Covid-19 vaccine and hosting of Expo 2020 Dubai. (Source: Khaleej Times) Capital Intelligence affirmed Qatar's rating at ‘AA-’ and outlook for the ratings is kept "stable". (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai’s real estate sector saw 44.3% YoY rise in sales transactions to 6,388 and 33.2% YoY increase in value to AED 14.8bn (USD 4.1bn), according to the 16th edition of Mo’asher. (Source: Emirates News Agency) The volume of trade balance between Jordan and Qatar increased by 17.5% YoY in Q1-21. Jordan's top imports from Qatar include lubricants, kerosene, liquefied gas and fertilizers. (Source: Jordan Times)  Qatar's producer’s price index (PPI) rose by 93.8% YoY and 8.5% MoM in June-21, as per Planning and Statistics Authority. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s commercial banks’ total assets rose by 12.0% YoY to QAR 1.8tn (USD in June-21, as per Qatar Central Bank (QCB). (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar saw 7.5% YoY growth in total currency issued in June-21 with the coins issuance faster than the notes, as per QCB. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade balance surplus rose by 184.2% YoY to QAR 16.7bn (USD 4.6bn) in June-21. (Source: The Peninsula)   Dubai property market recorded transactions valued at AED 61.9bn (USD 16.9bn) in H1-21, increasing 55.9% YoY. The number of deals increased by 40.2% YoY to 27,373. (Source: Zawya)  Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) has issued new rules under the Data Protection Regulations 2021 where data protection fee of USD 300.0 is set and a renewal fees of USD 300.0 is charged. (Source: Zawya) 1
2. August 01 , 2021 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ Index Price WTD %Δ 4,395.3 (0.4) 2.3 17.0 MSCI EM DJIA 34,935.5 (0.4) 1.3 14.1 MSCI GCC Nasdaq 14,959.9 (1.0) 2.8 16.1 Dow Jones Islamic FTSE 100 MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 1,277.8 (2.6) (7.0) (1.0) 679.2 2.3 1.0 23.7 6,135.2 (0.3) 1.9 12.6 7,032.3 0.1 (0.1) 8.9 KSA (TASI) 11,012.7 2.0 0.3 26.7 DAX 30 15,544.4 (0.8) 0.1 13.3 UAE (DFM) 2,765.7 0.8 (1.6) 11.0 CAC 40 6,612.8 0.7 1.6 19.1 UAE (ADX) 7,318.2 3.6 7.1 45.0 BIST 100 1,392.9 3.1 2.7 (5.7) Qatar (DSM) 10,753.3 0.5 0.2 3.0 27,283.6 (1.0) (5.2) (0.6) Kuwait (KSE) 6,581.0 2.9 3.0 18.7 Sh. Comp 3,397.4 (4.3) (5.4) (2.2) Bahrain (BAX) 1,597.0 1.1 0.6 7.2 Hang Seng 25,961.0 (5.0) (9.9) (4.7) Oman (MSM) 4,030.4 (1.1) (0.8) 10.2 Sensex 52,586.8 (0.7) 0.2 10.1 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,087.6 (2.2) (0.5) 26.0 Nikkei Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 3.1 BIST 100 CAC 40 FTSE 100 DJIA S&P 500 Sensex DAX 30 Nikkei Nasdaq MSCI EM Sh. Comp Hang Seng CAC 40 S&P 500 Nasdaq DJIA DAX 30 Sensex FTSE 100 Nikkei MSCI EM Sh. Comp Hang Seng BIST 100 0.7 0.1 (0.4) (0.4) (0.7) (0.8) (1.0) (1.0) (2.6) (4.3) (5.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 (22.0) Source: Bloomberg 19.1 17.0 16.1 14.1 13.3 10.1 8.9 (0.6) (1.0) (2.2) (4.7) (5.7) (12.0) (2.0) 8.0 18.0 28.0 GCC INDICES YTD Performance (%) UAE (ADX) Kuwait (KSE) KSA (TASI) UAE (DFM) 18.7 Dow Jones Islamic 12.6 UAE (DFM) 11.0 Oman (MSM) 10.2 0.8 0.5 Dow Jones Islamic 23.7 Kuwait (KSE) 2.0 1.1 Qatar (DSM) 26.7 MSCI GCC 2.3 Bahrain (BAX) 45.0 KSA (TASI) 2.9 MSCI GCC Oman (MSM) UAE (ADX) 3.6 Bahrain (BAX) (0.3) 7.2 Qatar (DSM) (1.1) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Source: Bloomberg 3.0 0.0 4.0 10.0 Global The US equity markets declined in the last week over concerns of rising coronavirus cases in the world. Also, recommendation by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that vaccinated individuals should be wearing masks in highertransmission areas pressured the market. The S&P 500 index ended lower by 0.4% as losses in Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks weighed on the benchmark. The European markets remained unchanged in the past week as optimism from strong corporate earnings was offset from concerns over the spread of delta variant of the coronavirus. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended flat in the previous week. Also, Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 2.2% in July-21. The DAX 30 Index declined by 0.8% with lower than expected rise in the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q2-21. In Asia, the Japanese markets closed lower with the Nikkei index declining by 1.0% as the government extended a state of emergency to combat the spread of the coronavirus in the nation. GCC Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Commentary 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Most GCC indices ended on a positive note in the last week. The Saudi Arabian index advanced by 2.0% as gains in Telecommunication and Pharmaceutical stocks supported the index. Dubai’s benchmark ended 0.8% higher last week, as gains in Services and Banking stocks supported the benchmark. Qatar The QE index rose 0.5% in the previous week. Gains in Banking & Financial Services and Transportation stocks supported the index. Selling pressure on part of Qatari individual and Foreign institutional investors weighed on the index. Trade turnover and volume declined with Banking & Financial Services and Consumer Goods & Services accounting for about 61.7% of the total traded value. Out of the total 48 traded stocks, 47 exchanged hands, 24 advanced, 23 declined. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 10,753.3 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 Feb-21 Mar-21 Index Apr-21 50 SMA 100 SMA Jun-21 200 SMA Jul-21 Indicator Price Last Close 10,753.3 MAVG 50 10,747.4 MAVG 100 10,630.2 MAVG 200 10,482.5 6 Month High 10,968.9 6 Month Low 9,952.9 RSI (14 Days) 25.9 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. August 01 , 2021 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 1.89 2.00 3.15 3.50 3.00 1.50 1.22 2.65 2.00 1.00 0.69 0.50 0.19 0.34 0.21 3 Yrs Current 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 0.62 0.29 2 Yrs 3 Yrs Current 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds CDS 5 Years CDS 1.17 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 1.71 0.84 0.50 0.00 2 Yrs 0.79 1.00 0.12 0.11 1.28 1.50 0.53 0.00 2.26 2.50 1.19 Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Maturity Global Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2022 102.0 5.4 0.07 (0.1) (2.4) QGS 2023 104.4 4.7 0.16 0.0 (1.0) US 11.5 0.1 0.1 (5.3) QGIB 2023 106.1 11.1 0.27 (0.0) (1.5) UK 11.3 (2.2) 0.3 (8.3) QGIB 2024 107.2 22.9 0.56 (0.1) (1.4) (1.6) QGIB 2025 108.9 36.2 0.91 0.0 (1.6) QGIB 2026 109.5 48.2 1.21 (0.1) (1.9) QGIB 2028 118.6 61.3 1.55 0.1 (2.7) Germany 10.8 (0.9) (0.3) France 22.2 (1.4) (0.6) 4.1 Italy 74.1 0.2 1.5 (25.8) QGIB 2029 115.6 75.4 1.77 0.1 (3.2) Greece 74.6 1.3 4.7 (29.3) QGIB 2030 160.5 111.5 2.15 0.4 (10.2) Russia 88.5 1.3 2.4 0.5 QGIB 2030 114.0 86.4 1.98 0.1 (3.9) QGIB 2040 148.1 152.1 2.97 0.6 (9.6) Japan 19.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 QGIB 2042 141.1 152.5 3.02 0.3 (8.9) Turkey 386.1 (0.5) (1.4) 75.6 QGIB 2046 126.4 152.5 3.08 (0.0) (6.6) Brazil 178.4 3.2 9.8 32.9 QGIB 2048 134.3 161.7 3.18 (0.0) (6.6) QGIB 2049 130.4 158.0 3.15 (0.2) (6.3) QGIB 2050 123.6 155.7 3.13 (0.1) (7.2) Egypt 370.6 3.7 30.1 18.7 GCC Abu Dhabi Bahrain Dubai Qatar Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg, QCB 43.6 1.2 4.2 3.9 US Swap Rates 260.5 3.7 50.8 6.9 Tenor 96.7 0.1 3.8 (23.5) 44.4 0.5 4.0 4.3 58.2 0.9 3.4 (9.7) 46.6 0.2 (0.3) (1.2) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.126 (0.003) (0.113) 6M LIBOR 0.154 (0.005) (0.104) 12M LIBOR 0.237 (0.004) (0.105) 2 years 0.262 (0.019) 0.062 5 years 0.783 (0.018) 0.349 10 years 1.251 (0.026) 0.322 30 years 1.652 0.004 0.250 235.7 3.3 3.8 (5.3) Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 49.6 1.1 1.9 (0.7) Commentary CDX North America HY 292.6 11.6 19.2 (0.7) 6.8 0.6 1.3 (2.5) 69.2 (0.2) 0.7 (19.4) The US 10-year bond yield declined due to persistent concerns about the fastspreading Delta coronavirus variant that could hinder global economic growth. The German 10-year bund yield declined due to persistent concerns about coronavirus and growth in global economy. Also, Ifo institute stated that its business climate index declined on monthly basis in July-21 iTraxx Europe Crossover iTraxx Europe Senior Financial iTraxx Europe Sub Financial Source: Bloomberg 3
4. August 01 , 2021 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 75.4 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 74.0 WTI oil prices closed higher by increasing 2.6% in the last week as demand for the commodity is rising faster than the supply and vaccinations is expected to reduce the impact of resurgence in COVID-19 infections globally. Copper prices increased in the last week boosted by tight supplies and rising demand for the industrial metal. Natural Gas prices declined in the past week as cooler forecast trends for next week weighed on the commodity prices. Also, the prospect of restored pipeline capacity tamed additional supply weighed on the commodity’s prices. Gold prices have advanced in the previous week as the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured that it is not the time to consider rate hike. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 3.9 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,812.6 Silver (USD/t oz.) 25.5 Copper (USD/lb) 448.3 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Brent Natural Gas 3.0 WTI Crude Copper Silver 0.6 (3.6) 45.6 Copper 1.3 Gold 52.4 Brent 1.7 Silver 54.2 WTI Crude 2.6 Natural Gas 27.4 (3.3) Gold (4.4) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 (10.0) Source: Bloomberg 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.3934 USD/INR 73.9150 EUR/USD 1.1900 USD/CNY 6.4614 CAD/USD 0.8019 USD/TRY 8.4539 AUD/USD 0.7344 USD/EGP 15.7047 NZD/USD 0.6974 USD/ZAR 14.6019 109.7200 USD/RUB 73.1659 USD/JPY Commentary The USD decreased against the basket of major currencies in the last week, with the dollar index declining by 0.8% to 92.2. The greenback declined as the release of lower than expected US New Home Sales data for the month of June-21 weighed on the currency. The EUR increased against the USD due to the release of higher than expected rise in Eurozone CPI data for the month of July-21. The GBP increased despite the release of lower Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) measures of the UK for the month of July-21. The CAD increased against the greenback boosted by the rise in oil prices during the week. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) ZAR TRY GBP RUB EUR JPY CAD CNY INR NZD EGP AUD YTD Performance (%) CAD GBP RUB CNY ZAR EGP INR EUR NZD AUD JPY TRY 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) Source: Bloomberg 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 (1.8) (2.8) (2.9) (4.5) (5.8) (12.1) (14.0) (12.0) (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4