Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers' Index Report - March 2017

Transcription

1. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX A MONTHLY PUBLICATION MARCH 2017 REPORT SURVEY MANAGEMENT DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA, ABUJA
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) MARCH 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The Statistics Department, Central Bank of Nigeria conducts a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria: two states in each of the six geo-political zones, and the FCT (Fig. 1). The survey results are used to compute the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The survey for this month was conducted March 13th to 20th, 2017 with a total of 1,788 responses received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 91.7 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than that stated by the respondents. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is derived from the data compiled from purchasing and supply executives. Survey responses indicate whether there is change or no change in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the previous month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percent of positive responses plus one-half of the percent of those reporting no change. The composite PMI is then computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices for manufacturing sector: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for non-manufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion 1
3. indices : business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally declining. The sub-sectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth. For the sub-sectors reporting contraction/decline, they are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest decline. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report Production level expanding from expansion, new orders declining at a slower rate, supplier delivery time improving from worsening condition, employment level declining at a slower rate, and raw material inventories declining at a slower rate The Manufacturing PMI stood at 47.7 index points in March 2017, indicating declines in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month (Fig. 2 and Table 1) but at a slower rate. Thirteen of the sixteen sub-sectors reported declines in the review month in the following order: primary metal; transportation equipment; plastics & rubber products; electrical equipment; paper products; printing & related support activities; petroleum & coal products; nonmetallic mineral products; furniture & related products; cement; fabricated metal products; computer & electronic products; and chemical & pharmaceutical products. The appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products; and textile, apparel, leather & footwear sub sectors reported expansion in the review period. 2
4. Overall Manufacturing PMI 55 .0 50 point Purching Managers' Index 53.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sept '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 41.0 Fig. 2: Trend of Manufacturing PMI Table 1: Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventories New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Business Outstanding/ Backlog of Work Stocks of Finished Goods Capacity Utilization Series Index* February Series Index* March Percentage Point Change 44.6 45.2 44.0 48.7 41.7 44.8 38.4 69.9 70.9 47.7 43.2 43.9 45.6 47.7 50.8 45.6 51.3 43.6 49.1 38.5 65.0 68.3 50.1 43.6 45.1 46.6 3.1 5.6 1.6 2.6 1.9 4.3 0.1 -4.9 -2.6 2.5 0.5 1.2 1.0 55.4 44.1 41.8 47.7 38.9 41.2 51.9 43.3 49.1 35.8 45.6 63.9 46.7 48.0 47.5 40.8 47.2 53.2 46.7 45.9 44.9 45.4 8.5 2.6 6.1 -0.2 1.9 6.1 1.3 3.4 -3.3 9.0 -0.2 Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Declining Growing Declining Improving Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Slower From Contraction Slower From Worsening Slower Slower Slower Slower Slower From Contraction Slower Slower Slower 3 1 3 1 25 3 25 15 33 1 25 25 2 Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster Slower Slower Faster Slower Slower Faster Slower Faster Slower Faster 4 3 3 2 4 3 6 3 2 3 2 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products 45.5 40.5 -4.9 Declining Faster 3 Primary metal 49.5 30.3 -19.1 Declining Faster 15 Printing & related support activities 41.0 45.1 4.1 Declining Slower 18 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear 46.3 52.3 6.0 Growing From Contraction 1 Transportation equipment 29.5 39.8 10.3 Declining Slower 9 \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment ** Number of month moving in current direction 3
5. 2 .1 Production Level The production level index for manufacturing sector expanded in March 2017. The index at 50.8 points indicated an expansion in production level as compared to contraction in the previous month. Seven manufacturing sub-sectors recorded increase in production level during the review month in the following order: appliances & components; petroleum & coal products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; food, beverage & tobacco products; cement; computer & electronic products; and furniture & related products. The nonmetallic mineral products sub-sector remained unchanged, while the primary metal; transportation equipment; electrical equipment; plastics & rubber products; paper products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; printing & related support activities; and fabricated metal products recorded declines in production in March 2017.(Table 2). Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 45.2 Series Index March 50.8 Percentage Point Change 5.6 Direction Growing Rate of Trend Change (Months) From Contraction 1 58.3 48.5 38.2 46.4 25.0 41.5 57.1 40.9 55.1 28.3 50.0 40.6 46.4 44.0 48.2 28.6 83.3 53.7 45.8 53.1 36.1 49.5 57.9 51.7 50.0 44.6 58.3 40.9 20.0 48.6 58.2 25.0 25.0 5.2 7.6 6.7 11.1 8.0 0.8 10.8 -5.1 16.3 8.3 0.3 -26.4 4.5 10.1 -3.6 Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing No Change Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Faster From Contraction Slower From Contraction Slower Slower Faster From Contraction From Expansion Slower From No Change Slower Faster Slower From Contraction Faster 3 1 2 1 3 4 6 1 1 4 1 2 13 4 1 9 2.2 New Orders At 45.6 points, the index declined for the third consecutive month but at a slower rate when compared to the level achieved in February 2017. Twelve sub-sectors recorded declines in the following order: primary metal; plastics & rubber products; petroleum & coal products; printing & related support activities; electrical equipment; transportation equipment; computer & electronic products; paper products; fabricated metal products; furniture & related products; cement; and nonmetallic mineral products. The remaining four sub-sectors grew in the following order: appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; and chemical & pharmaceutical products (Table 3). 4
6. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 44.0 Series Index March 45.6 Percentage Point Change 1.6 58.3 39.4 46.1 46.4 44.4 38.1 53.1 43.2 48.7 28.3 43.8 54.7 46.4 36.7 45.5 25.0 61.1 46.2 52.5 40.6 38.9 43.8 53.5 43.9 46.6 41.9 37.5 31.8 16.7 37.9 52.6 38.9 2.8 6.8 6.4 -5.8 -5.6 5.7 0.4 0.7 -2.1 13.6 -6.3 -22.9 -29.8 1.1 7.1 13.9 Direction Declining Rate of Change Slower Trend (Months) 3 Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Faster Slower From Contraction Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower Faster Slower Faster From Expansion Faster Slower From Contraction Slower 3 3 1 2 4 3 6 15 2 3 2 1 13 15 1 8 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time At 51.3 index points, the supplier delivery time index for the manufacturing sub-sectors improved in March 2017. Nine sub-sectors recorded improved suppliers’ delivery time in the following order: computer & electronic products; electrical equipment; paper products; plastics & rubber products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; primary metal; printing & related support activities; food, beverage & tobacco products; and fabricated metal products. The appliances & components; petroleum & coal products; and transportation equipment sub-sector remained unchanged, while the cement; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; furniture & related products; and nonmetallic mineral products sub-sectors recorded declines in delivery time in March 2017 (Table 4). Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 48.7 Series Index March 51.3 50.0 42.4 47.1 64.3 52.8 52.8 42.0 51.1 39.7 45.0 62.5 37.5 50.0 52.4 53.6 50.0 50.0 44.4 53.3 59.4 58.3 51.6 51.8 48.3 48.9 58.1 50.0 54.5 53.3 52.1 47.9 50.0 Percentage Point Change Direction 2.6 Improving 0.0 2.0 6.3 -4.9 5.6 -1.3 9.8 -2.8 9.1 13.1 -12.5 17.0 3.3 -0.3 -5.7 0.0 5 No Change Worsening Improving Improving Improving Improving Improving Worsening Worsening Improving No Change Improving Improving Improving Worsening No Change Rate of Trend Change (Months) From Worsening 1 Flat Slower From Worsening Slower Faster Slower From Worsening From Improving Slower From Worsening From Improving From Worsening From No Change Slower From Improving Flat 2 4 1 2 3 12 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 3 1 2
7. 2 .4 Employment Level Employment level index in March 2017 stood at 43.6 points, indicating a decline in employment level for twenty-five consecutive months. However, the index declined at a slower rate when compared with the level in the preceding month. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, fifteen recorded declines in the following order: electrical equipment; primary metal; petroleum & coal products; transportation equipment; nonmetallic mineral products; cement; chemical & pharmaceutical products; paper products; furniture & related products; plastics & rubber products; computer & electronic products; fabricated metal products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; printing & related support activities; and food, beverage & tobacco products. The appliances & components sub-sector recorded growth during the review period (Table 5). Table 5: Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index February 41.7 Series Index March 43.6 Percentage Point Change 1.9 41.7 48.5 36.3 35.7 33.3 36.4 50.4 42.0 44.9 48.3 37.5 45.3 50.0 34.5 42.2 18.8 55.6 38.9 39.2 43.8 33.3 44.8 47.8 42.2 38.6 41.9 37.5 42.4 36.7 47.1 46.9 37.5 13.9 -9.6 2.9 8.0 0.0 8.4 -2.7 0.3 -6.2 -6.4 0.0 -2.9 -13.3 12.6 4.7 18.8 Direction Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change Slower Trend (Months) 25 From Contraction Faster Slower Slower Flat Slower From Expansion Slower Faster Faster Flat Faster From No Change Slower Slower Slower 1 3 17 8 10 20 1 17 15 3 2 2 1 20 3 2 2.5 Raw Materials Inventory At 49.1 points, the raw materials inventory index declined for the third consecutive months. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, nine recorded declines in raw materials inventories in the order: paper products; plastics & rubber products; nonmetallic mineral products; computer & electronic products; printing & related support activities; petroleum & coal products; electrical equipment; furniture & related products; and chemical & pharmaceutical products. The cement and primary metal sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the remaining five sub-sectors recorded increase in inventories in the order: transportation equipment; appliances & components; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; food, beverage & tobacco products; and fabricated metal products (Table 6). 6
8. Table 6 : Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORIES PMI Series Index February 44.8 Series Index March 49.1 Percentage Point Change 4.3 Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 75.0 40.9 41.2 53.6 47.2 42.0 52.7 40.3 57.7 38.3 31.3 42.2 64.3 41.6 41.7 35.7 61.1 50.0 49.2 43.3 47.2 50.5 53.1 48.9 43.2 40.5 45.8 40.9 50.0 43.6 54.1 68.8 -13.9 9.1 8.0 -10.2 0.0 8.6 0.4 8.5 -14.5 2.2 14.6 -1.3 -14.3 2.0 12.5 33.0 Direction Declining Rate of Change Slower Trend (Months) 3 Growing No Change Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining No Change Declining Growing Growing Slower From Contraction Slower From Expansion Flat From Contraction Faster Slower From Expansion Slower Slower Faster From Expansion Slower From Contraction From Contraction 4 1 2 1 4 1 6 14 1 3 13 3 1 16 1 1 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventories declining in March 2017 7
9. The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector declined for the fifteenth consecutive month . The index stood at 47.1 points, indicating a slower decline when compared to the 44.5 points in February 2017. Of the eighteen non-manufacturing sub-sectors, eleven recorded declines in the following order: construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; real estate, rental & leasing; management of companies; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; accommodation & food services; wholesale/retail trade; arts, entertainment & recreation; information & communication; utilities; and health care & social assistance. The remaining seven sub-sectors: public administration; educational services; agriculture; water supply, sewage & waste management; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; transportation & warehousing; and finance & insurance reported growth in the review month (Table 7 and Fig. 3). Table 7: Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \2 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment in your organisation Raw materials/WIP Inventories Average price of yourInputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Finished goods Inventories (sentiments) Series Index February Series Index March Percentage Point Change 44.5 45.4 44.9 42.6 44.9 65.4 42.9 33.4 34.5 38.7 47.1 49.8 46.4 44.0 48.0 62.1 42.7 33.1 34.5 40.6 2.6 4.4 1.5 1.4 3.1 -3.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 1.9 42.4 51.0 43.6 34.0 52.5 47.0 44.5 45.7 44.4 50.0 39.4 42.7 43.9 45.5 49.6 44.1 39.7 44.1 45.5 53.5 46.2 38.0 55.5 52.7 51.1 49.9 46.5 42.5 41.5 56.6 41.9 43.6 51.3 46.6 53.3 45.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 4.0 3.0 5.7 6.6 4.1 2.1 -7.5 2.1 13.9 -2.0 -1.9 1.7 2.5 13.6 1.8 Rate of Change Trend (Months) Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Slower Slower Slower Slower Slower Slower Faster Faster Faster Slower 15 2 15 15 2 17 33 33 33 33 Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Declining Slower Faster Slower Slower Faster From Contraction From Contraction Slower Slower From No Change Slower From Contraction Faster Faster From Contraction Slower From Contraction Slower 15 10 2 22 4 1 1 10 2 1 25 1 3 15 1 2 1 15 Direction Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade \2 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories. Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sept '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Purchasing Managers' Index 50 point Fig. 3: Trend of Non-Manufacturing PMI 8
10. 3 .1 Business Activity The business activity index stood at 49.8 points in March 2017, from its level of 45.4 points in February 2017. Nine sub-sectors recorded decline in the following order: management of companies; construction; arts, entertainment & recreation; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; professional, scientific & technical services; real estate, rental & leasing; accommodation & food services; information & communication; and finance & insurance. The transportation & warehousing and utilities sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the remaining seven sub-sectors recorded growth in the order: public administration; agriculture; educational services; water supply, sewage & waste management; health care & social assistance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; and wholesale/retail trade (Table 8). Table 8: Business Activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 45.4 43.7 54.6 41.9 34.1 52.2 47.6 47.2 47.7 44.8 45.0 41.4 45.8 43.8 46.7 51.6 42.1 35.4 46.0 Series Index March 49.8 47.8 63.2 43.1 40.4 60.7 53.2 49.0 55.0 48.2 30.0 44.1 64.7 46.1 43.7 50.0 50.0 60.5 53.2 Percentage Point Change 4.4 4.1 8.5 1.2 6.3 8.5 5.6 1.8 7.3 3.4 -15.0 2.7 18.9 2.3 -3.0 -1.6 7.9 25.1 7.2 Direction Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining No Change No Change Growing Growing Rate of Trend Change (Months) Slower 2 Slower 15 Faster 10 Slower 2 Slower 13 Faster 4 From Contraction 1 Slower 4 From Contraction 1 Slower 2 Faster 3 Slower 2 From Contraction 1 Slower 3 Faster 15 From Expansion 1 From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 3.2 New Orders At 46.4 points, the new orders index declined for the fifteen consecutive months in March 2017, but at a slower rate. Of the eighteen sub-sectors, ten declined in the following order: construction; management of companies; professional, scientific, & technical services; information & communication; wholesale/retail trade; utilities; real estate, rental & leasing; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; accommodation & food services; and arts, entertainment & recreation. The water supply, sewage & waste management sub-sector remained unchanged, while the remaining seven sub-sectors recorded growth in the order: public administration; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; finance & insurance; agriculture; educational services; health care & social assistance; and transportation & warehousing (Table 9). 9
11. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 44.9 39.3 50.8 43.2 32.6 51.1 50.0 46.2 48.8 47.4 55.0 35.9 45.8 42.2 48.0 49.2 44.7 41.7 46.7 Series Index March 46.4 45.6 53.5 48.6 33.0 52.7 57.4 55.2 52.2 40.4 35.0 37.5 61.8 43.7 44.4 51.4 43.3 50.0 42.1 Percentage Point Change 1.5 6.3 2.7 5.4 0.4 1.5 7.4 9.0 3.4 -7.1 -20.0 1.6 15.9 1.5 -3.7 2.2 -1.4 8.3 -4.6 Direction Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining No Change Declining Rate of Trend Change (Months) Slower 15 Slower 15 Faster 10 Slower 2 Slower 22 Faster 4 From No Change 1 From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 Faster 2 From Expansion 1 Slower 17 From Contraction 1 Slower 19 Faster 9 From Contraction 1 Faster 2 From Contraction 1 Faster 3 3.3 Employment Level The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 44.0 points indicating a decline in employment for fifteen consecutive months. Fourteen sub-sectors recorded declines in employment level in the following order: construction; real estate, rental & leasing; utilities; management of companies; professional, scientific, & technical services; accommodation & food services; wholesale/retail trade; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; health care & social assistance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; finance & insurance; arts, entertainment & recreation; agriculture; and information & communication. The public administration sub-sector remained unchanged, while the water supply, sewage & waste management; transportation & warehousing; and educational services recorded increase in employment level (Table 10). Table 10: Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 42.6 42.2 49.2 41.9 29.5 56.5 43.9 42.5 41.3 35.3 50.0 37.5 45.8 44.5 48.0 46.7 34.2 41.3 41.7 Series Index March 44.0 41.7 47.4 47.2 31.9 50.9 44.7 46.9 43.9 49.1 40.0 41.4 50.0 37.5 43.7 52.9 39.3 55.3 42.4 10 Percentage Point Change 1.4 -0.6 -1.9 5.3 2.4 -5.6 0.8 4.4 2.6 13.8 -10.0 3.9 4.2 -7.0 -4.4 6.1 5.1 14.0 0.8 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining Slower 15 Declining Faster 10 Declining Faster 3 Declining Slower 2 Declining Slower 22 Growing Slower 3 Declining Slower 10 Declining Slower 14 Declining Slower 15 Declining Slower 25 Declining From No Change 1 Declining Slower 14 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 16 Declining Faster 12 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 3 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 16
12. 3 .4 Inventories/Work in Progress Non-manufacturing inventories/work in progress index in March 2017 stood at 48.0 points indicating a decline at an increasing rate from the 44.9 points in the previous month. Ten sub-sectors recorded lower inventories in the following order: real estate, rental & leasing; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; professional, scientific, & technical services; wholesale/retail trade; arts, entertainment & recreation; construction; accommodation & food services; water supply, sewage & waste management; information & communication; and health care & social assistance. The agriculture and public administration sub sectors remain unchanged, while management of companies; educational services; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; utilities; finance & insurance; and transportation & warehousing subsectors recorded higher inventories in March 2017. (Table 11). Table 11: Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index February 44.9 44.2 49.2 47.3 39.8 50.0 46.3 42.2 45.2 50.0 50.0 42.9 33.3 45.2 39.2 50.8 55.3 40.5 42.0 Series Index March 48.0 46.9 50.0 45.8 46.7 57.5 55.4 53.4 48.3 48.2 65.0 43.2 50.0 40.5 42.8 50.7 53.8 47.4 45.6 11 Percentage Point Change 3.1 2.8 0.8 -1.5 7.0 7.5 9.1 11.3 3.1 -1.8 15.0 0.3 16.7 -4.8 3.6 -0.1 -1.4 6.9 3.6 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining Slower 2 Declining Slower 22 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 2 Declining Slower 25 Growing From No Change 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 4 Declining From No Change 1 Growing From No Change 1 Declining Slower 4 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 2 Declining Slower 5 Growing Slower 4 Growing Slower 4 Declining Slower 3 Declining Slower 2
13. APPENDICES : HISTORICAL DATA Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 12 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 Capacity Utilization Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 45.6 46.6
14. Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 13 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employment Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month NON-MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6