Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers Index Report - December 2017

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers ’ Index (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department December 2017
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) DECEMBER 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The December 2017 PMI survey was conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria during the period December 13 - 17, 2017. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 15 locations in Nigeria (Fig. 1). The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the data they provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Sokoto Katsina Yobe Jigawa Zamfara Borno Kano Kebbi Kaduna Bauchi Gombe Niger Adamawa Nasarawa Oyo Osun Ogun Lagos Plateau FCT Kwara Ekiti Taraba Kogi Benue Ondo Edo Delta Cross Imo Abia River Akwa Ibom Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria with * showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on survey responses indicating the changes in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage of responses with positive change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change, except for supplier delivery time, which is computed as the percentage of responses with negative change plus half of the percentage of those reporting no change. The composite PMI for the manufacturing sector is computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices: production level, level of new orders, suppliers’ delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory/work in progress, with 1
3. assigned weights of 25 %, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for the nonmanufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, level of new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally contracting. The subsectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth, while those reporting contraction are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest contraction. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report December '17 November '17 Inventories Production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and inventories growing at a faster rate in December 2017 Employment level Supplier deliveries New orders Production level Overall Manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Fig. 2: Manufacturing PMI at a glance 2 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Index Points The Manufacturing PMI in the month of December stood at 59.3 index points indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive months. (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Fifteen of the 16 subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order petroleum & coal products; textile, apparel, leather and 60.0 footwear; cement; transportation 59.3 Overall Manufacturing PMI 50 point equipment; paper products; food, 58.0 beverage & tobacco products; 56.0 furniture & related products; 54.0 plastics & rubber products; 52.0 nonmetallic mineral products; 50.0 printing & related support 48.0 activities; appliances and 46.0 components; chemical & 44.0 pharmaceutical products; 42.0 fabricated metal products; primary 40.0 metal and electrical equipment. The computer & electronic Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI product sector contracted in the review month.
4. 2 .1 Production Level 64.0 Production Level 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Fig. 4: Trend of production index New Orders 58.0 60.0 50 point 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 40.0 Nov '16 At 60.0 points, the new orders index grew for the nine consecutive month, indicating increase in new orders in December 2017. Thirteen subsectors reported growth, 2 remained unchanged while 1 contracted in the review month (Fig. 5 and Table 3). Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 40.0 60.0 2.2 New Orders 63.2 50 point 62.0 Dec '16 At 63.2 points, the production level index for the manufacturing sector grew for the tenth consecutive month in December 2017. The index indicated an increase in production in the current month, when compared to its level in the preceding month. Eleven of the 16 manufacturing subsectors recorded increase in production level, 3 remained unchanged, while the remaining 2 recorded declines in production level during the review month (Fig. 4 and Table 2). Fig. 5: Trend of new orders index 60.0 50 point 57.4 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Fig. 6: Trend of supplier delivery time index 3 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 40.0 Jan '17 The manufacturing supplier delivery time index stood at 57.4 points in December 2017, indicating faster supplier delivery time for the seventh consecutive month. Eleven subsectors recorded improved suppliers’ delivery time, 1 remained unchanged while 4 subsectors recorded delayed delivery time (Fig. 6 and Table 4). Supplier Delivery Time 58.0 Dec '16 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time
5. 2 .4 Employment Level Employment Level 54.0 The employment level index in December 2017 stood at 53.9 points, indicating growth in employment level for the eighth consecutive month. Of the 16 subsectors, 9 subsectors increased their employment level, 3 remained unchanged while 4 subsectors reduced their employment level in the review month (Fig. 7 and Table 5). 53.9 50 point 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 40.0 Fig 7: Trend of manufacturing employment index 2.5 Raw material Inventories 62.0 Raw Materials Inventory 60.0 50 point 61.1 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 42.0 Nov '16 The Manufacturing sector inventories index grew for the ninth consecutive months in December 2017. At 61.1 points, the index grew at a faster rate when compared to its level in the previous months. Eleven of the 16 subsectors recorded growth, 3 remained unchanged while 2 subsectors recorded decline in raw material inventories (Fig. 8 and Table 6). Fig. 8: Trend of raw material inventory index 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report December '17 Business activity, new orders, employment and inventories growing at a faster rate in December 2017 November '17 Inventories Level of employment Level of new orders Business Activity Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Fig. 9: Non-Manufacturing PMI at a glance 4
6. Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 62.1 points in December 2017, indicating expansion in the Non-manufacturing PMI for the eighth consecutive month. Fifteen of the 18 non-manufacturing subsectors recorded growth in the following order: arts, entertainment & recreation; agriculture; transportation & warehousing; utilities; water supply, sewage & waste management; finance & insurance; health care & social assistance; real estate, rental & leasing; wholesale trade; 63.0 Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 50 point 62.1 accommodation & food services; 60.0 electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; educational 57.0 services; construction; 54.0 information & communication and professional, scientific, & 51.0 technical services. The management of companies 48.0 remained unchanged, while the 45.0 public administration and repair, maintenance/washing of motor 42.0 vehicles… subsectors recorded contraction in the review period (Fig. 10 and Table 7). Fig. 10: Trend of Non-manufacturing PMI 3.1 Business Activity 67.0 Business Activity 67.4 50 point 62.0 57.0 52.0 47.0 Fig. 11: Trend of business activities index 5 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 42.0 Dec '16 At 67.4 points, the business activity index grew for the nine consecutive month, indicating expansion in business activity in December 2017. The index grew at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the previous month, indicating improvements in business activities in the current month. Sixteen subsectors recorded growth in business activity, one sector remain unchanged, while one declined in the review month (Table 8).
7. 63 .0 New orders 62.2 50 point 60.0 3.2 New Orders At 62.2 points, new orders index grew in December 2017 for the ninth consecutive months. Of the 18 subsectors, 15 reported growth, 1 remained unchanged while 2 recorded declines (Table 9). 57.0 54.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Dec '16 Jan '17 42.0 Fig. 12: Trend of new orders index Employment Level 56.0 3.3 Employment Level 54.0 The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 55.7 points, indicating growth in employment for the eighth consecutive month. Eleven subsectors recorded growth in the review month, 3 remained unchanged while 4 recorded declines (Table 10). 52.0 55.7 50 point 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 40.0 Fig. 13: Trend of non-manufacturing employment index 62.9 50 point 59.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 Fig. 14: Trend of non-manufacturing inventory index 6 Dec '17 Nov '17 Oct '17 Sep '17 Aug '17 July '17 June '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 44.0 Jan '17 At 62.9 points, non-manufacturing inventory index grew for the eighth consecutive month, indicating growth in inventories in the review period. Sixteen subsectors recorded higher inventories, while 2 subsectors recorded lower inventory in November, 2017 (Table 11). Dec '16 3.4 Non-manufacturing Inventory Inventory 62.0
8. APPENDICES Table 1 : Manufacturing at a Glance Series Index* November Series Index* December Change 55.9 59.3 54.3 56.0 53.7 57.1 37.6 54.0 64.3 48.1 50.0 48.8 59.3 63.2 60.0 57.4 53.9 61.1 40.2 54.3 63.4 53.6 45.7 47.4 3.4 3.9 5.7 1.4 0.2 4.0 2.6 0.3 -0.9 5.5 -4.3 -1.4 Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products 43.8 52.5 56.1 60.8 50.0 45.2 57.4 53.8 57.1 52.7 65.0 58.4 57.5 63.3 56.6 45.0 50.8 55.7 61.6 60.1 57.8 61.9 75.0 58.5 Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 50.7 61.0 60.6 47.5 52.2 57.6 63.5 62.5 Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Outstanding Business/Backlog of Work Stock of Finished Goods Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower From Contraction From No Change Faster 9 10 9 7 8 9 34 24 42 1 1 2 13.7 10.8 0.5 -15.8 0.8 10.5 4.2 6.3 0.7 9.2 10.0 0.1 Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing From Contraction Faster Faster From Expansion From No Change From Contraction Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster 1 2 6 1 1 1 15 5 5 8 2 5 1.5 -3.4 2.9 15.0 Growing Growing Growing Growing Faster Slower Faster From Contraction 3 6 10 1 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage of high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. ** Number of month moving in current direction Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index November 59.3 Series Index December 63.2 Change 3.9 50.0 50.0 57.6 66.7 75.0 41.2 64.4 56.4 58.8 63.6 50.0 60.0 36.4 67.8 66.0 50.0 50.0 66.7 67.3 25.0 83.3 59.2 63.6 62.8 50.0 75.0 83.3 63.0 38.9 61.1 71.4 50.0 0.0 16.7 9.7 -41.7 8.3 18.0 -0.8 6.4 -8.8 11.4 33.3 3.0 2.5 -6.7 5.4 0.0 7 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 10 No Change Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing No Change Flat From No Change Faster From Expansion Faster From Contraction Slower Faster From Expansion Faster From No Change Faster Slower Slower Faster Flat 2 1 6 1 2 1 15 10 1 4 1 4 2 9 10 3
9. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index November 54.3 Series Index December 60.0 Change 5.7 50.0 75.0 59.1 50.0 37.5 39.7 54.2 52.1 55.9 45.5 50.0 54.0 63.6 57.8 62.8 33.3 50.0 66.7 55.8 50.0 33.3 55.3 60.2 61.5 68.8 62.5 83.3 63.0 61.1 56.9 64.3 75.0 0.0 -8.3 -3.3 0.0 -4.2 15.6 6.0 9.4 12.9 17.0 33.3 9.0 -2.5 -0.9 1.5 41.7 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster No Change Flat Growing Slower Growing Slower No Change Flat Declining Faster Growing From Contraction Growing Faster Growing Faster Growing Faster Growing From Contraction Growing From No Change Growing Faster Growing Slower Growing Slower Growing Faster Growing From Contraction Trend (Months) 9 2 2 6 2 2 1 15 2 4 1 1 4 3 2 3 1 Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIME PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index November 56.0 Series Index December 57.4 Change 1.4 25.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 54.4 57.6 61.7 58.8 54.5 100.0 52.0 59.1 54.4 53.2 66.7 100.0 33.3 61.5 75.0 33.3 56.6 60.2 60.3 68.8 37.5 83.3 51.9 61.1 48.6 57.1 50.0 75.0 -16.7 11.5 25.0 -16.7 2.2 2.6 -1.4 10.0 -17.0 -16.7 -0.1 2.0 -5.8 3.9 -16.7 8 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 7 Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing No Change From Contraction From No Change From No Change From No Change From No Change Faster Faster Slower Faster From Expansion Slower Slower Faster From Expansion Faster From Expansion 1 1 1 1 1 6 4 4 6 1 2 4 2 1 4 1
10. Table 5 : Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index November 53.7 Series Index December 53.9 Change 0.2 25.0 25.0 51.5 66.7 37.5 50.0 53.4 50.0 52.9 50.0 75.0 64.0 31.8 62.2 59.6 33.3 50.0 66.7 44.2 25.0 33.3 51.3 59.3 52.6 37.5 50.0 66.7 55.6 55.6 59.7 55.1 50.0 25.0 41.7 -7.3 -41.7 -4.2 1.3 5.9 2.6 -15.4 0.0 -8.3 -8.4 23.8 -2.5 -4.5 16.7 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 8 No Change Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining No Change Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change From Contraction From Contraction From Expansion From Expansion Faster From No Change Faster From No Change From Expansion Flat Slower Slower From Contraction Slower Slower From Contraction 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 4 1 5 3 1 Trend (Months) 9 1 1 1 2 1 1 15 1 5 1 1 1 1 6 3 3 Table 6: Raw Materials Inventory at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORY PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index November 57.1 Series Index December 61.1 Change 4.0 Direction Growing Rate of Change Faster 75.0 50.0 62.1 83.3 50.0 48.5 56.8 47.9 61.8 50.0 75.0 66.0 72.7 61.1 54.3 83.3 50.0 83.3 50.0 75.0 83.3 55.3 67.2 64.1 68.8 87.5 33.3 50.0 38.9 59.7 67.8 100.0 -25.0 33.3 -12.1 -8.3 33.3 6.8 10.4 16.2 7.0 37.5 -41.7 -16.0 -33.8 -1.4 13.5 16.7 No Change Growing No Change Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining No Change Declining Growing Growing Growing From Expansion From No Change From Expansion Slower From No Change From Contraction Faster From Contraction Faster From No Change From Expansion From Expansion From Expansion Slower Faster Faster 9
11. Table 7 : Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment Inventory Average price of Inputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Inventory (sentiments) Series Index November Series Index December Change 57.6 59.4 58.4 54.6 58.0 55.7 43.6 28.8 33.3 40.6 62.1 67.4 62.2 55.7 62.9 56.1 44.6 34.6 39.1 40.3 4.5 8.0 3.8 1.1 4.9 0.4 1.0 5.8 5.8 -0.3 52.9 78.3 56.3 41.7 60.8 51.0 62.0 67.9 57.3 25.0 45.4 75.0 54.7 57.7 57.4 73.8 59.4 54.5 60.7 73.3 74.2 56.9 57.3 60.0 64.8 63.7 56.9 50.0 53.5 41.7 63.0 48.1 73.2 70.0 67.2 62.4 7.8 -5.0 18.0 15.2 -3.5 9.0 2.8 -4.2 -0.4 25.0 8.1 -33.3 8.3 -9.6 15.8 -3.8 7.8 7.9 Rate of Change Trend (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Slower Slower Faster 8 9 9 8 8 26 42 42 42 42 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Faster Slower Faster From Contraction Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower From Contraction From Contraction From Expansion Faster From Expansion Faster Slower Faster Faster 8 19 5 1 13 10 10 8 9 1 1 1 4 1 10 9 10 7 Direction Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade \1 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories Table 8: Business activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index November 59.4 52.3 83.3 56.8 40.5 61.1 58.3 60.0 65.3 58.3 0.0 44.4 90.0 60.3 65.4 63.0 80.0 66.7 55.7 Series Index December 67.4 58.1 77.6 83.3 72.2 57.1 60.0 72.7 69.2 57.5 50.0 62.0 66.7 62.5 48.1 85.7 75.0 75.0 71.7 10 Change 8.0 5.8 -5.7 26.5 31.7 -4.0 1.7 12.7 3.9 -0.8 50.0 17.6 -23.3 2.2 -17.3 22.7 -5.0 8.3 16.0 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 9 Growing Faster 8 Growing Slower 19 Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 4 Growing Faster 10 Growing Faster 9 Growing Faster 10 Growing Slower 9 No Change From Contraction 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 3 Growing Faster 4 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 9 Growing Slower 9 Growing Faster 4 Growing Faster 8
12. Table 9 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index November 58.4 53.1 81.7 50.0 38.1 62.5 54.2 63.3 69.4 54.2 0.0 42.6 70.0 58.6 57.7 57.4 80.0 70.8 54.8 Series Index December 62.2 65.3 75.9 63.3 52.8 53.6 65.0 62.5 64.4 57.5 75.0 50.0 33.3 70.8 46.2 76.2 70.0 75.0 60.8 Series Index November 54.6 53.1 70.0 56.8 47.6 56.9 33.3 63.3 63.3 52.1 100.0 50.0 60.0 41.4 42.3 59.3 70.0 54.2 51.3 Series Index December 55.7 56.5 70.7 56.7 50.0 55.4 50.0 61.4 57.7 50.0 37.5 40.0 33.3 58.3 46.2 64.3 60.0 56.3 55.0 Change 3.8 12.2 -5.8 13.3 14.7 -8.9 10.8 -0.8 -5.0 3.3 75.0 7.4 -36.7 12.2 -11.5 18.8 -10.0 4.2 6.0 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 9 Growing Faster 2 Growing Slower 6 Growing From No Change 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 2 Growing Slower 10 Growing Slower 7 Growing Faster 9 Growing From Contraction 1 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 3 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 10 Growing Slower 9 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 7 Change 1.1 3.4 0.7 -0.1 2.4 -1.5 16.7 -1.9 -5.6 -2.1 -62.5 -10.0 -26.7 16.9 3.9 5.0 -10.0 2.1 3.7 Rate of Trend Change (Months) Faster 8 Faster 5 Faster 8 Slower 8 From Contraction 1 Slower 12 From Contraction 1 Slower 7 Slower 7 From Expansion 1 From Expansion 1 From No Change 1 From Expansion 1 From Contraction 1 Slower 2 Faster 10 Slower 2 Faster 4 Faster 7 Table 10: Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Direction Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Growing No Change Growing Growing No Change Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Table 11: Inventory at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index November 58.0 51.5 75.0 61.4 40.5 62.5 58.3 59.1 73.5 60.4 0.0 44.4 80.0 56.9 61.5 50.0 65.0 45.8 55.7 Series Index December 62.9 62.9 69.0 93.3 52.8 63.0 65.0 62.5 63.5 62.5 37.5 62.0 33.3 60.4 51.9 66.7 75.0 62.5 62.1 11 Change 4.9 11.4 -6.0 31.9 12.3 0.5 6.7 3.4 -10.0 2.1 37.5 17.6 -46.7 3.5 -9.6 16.7 10.0 16.7 6.4 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 8 Growing Faster 5 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 3 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 3 Growing Faster 7 Growing Slower 8 Growing Faster 6 Declining Slower 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 2 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Faster 4 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 5
13. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 52.9 54.1 53.6 55.3 55.0 55.9 59.3 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 58.2 59.3 57.4 58.8 58.4 59.3 63.2 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 51.0 52.7 52.3 53.5 52.8 54.3 60.0 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 50.3 51.3 52.0 55.4 55.5 56.0 57.4 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 51.1 51.8 51.5 52.8 53.1 53.7 53.9 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 52.3 53.6 54.9 56.4 56.5 57.1 61.1 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 32.6 37.5 36.7 30.4 35.5 37.6 40.2 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 62.7 60.4 58.8 58.2 55.4 54.0 54.3 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 66.6 64.1 64.9 65.7 62.7 64.3 63.4 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.2 48.0 49.0 49.4 49.6 48.1 53.6 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40.0 42.3 43.9 42.1 47.9 51.9 50.8 50.0 45.7 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 12: Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8 49.1 48.5 51.6 50.4 50.0 48.8 47.4
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 54.2 54.4 54.1 54.9 55.3 57.6 62.1 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 57.0 56.8 56.1 56.8 57.5 59.4 67.4 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 54.6 55.1 53.5 55.4 55.7 58.4 62.2 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 53.4 54.0 54.4 54.7 54.4 54.6 55.7 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 51.8 51.9 52.3 52.9 53.4 58.0 62.9 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 58.6 58.1 54.5 56.9 56.4 55.7 56.1 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 40.5 42.9 42.8 42.2 41.4 43.6 44.6 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 30.3 32.0 34.5 31.2 29.6 28.8 34.6 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 33.5 36.8 34.8 35.9 35.4 33.3 39.1 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employmen t Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 13: Non-Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6 42.7 41.5 42.0 44.2 38.9 40.6 40.3