Bursa Malaysia Daily Market Report - 3 May

Transcription

1. Thursday , 03 May, 2018 TA RESEARCH’S ‘DAILY COMPILED REPORTS’ For Internal Circulation Only N ew s 1. D ai l y M arke t C om men t a ry 2. D ai l y B ri ef Fu nd a me n tal Rep o r ts 1 . H u p S e n g In d u s t r ie s B e rh a d : C a u t io u s ly O p t im is t ic O u t lo o k f o r F Y 1 8 2 . P u b l ic Ba n k B e r h a d : R e su lt s W i th in E x p e c ta t io n s 3 . U S Ec o n o m y: F e d K e e p s R a te s , H ig h e r P ro b a b i l i ty in J u n e 2 0 1 8 Te ch n ic al R ep o rt s 1. D ai l y Te ch n ic a l St o ck W at ch , D ai l y Mon e y F lo w , D a il y St oc k Sc reen ( Loc al ) Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my
2. Daily Market Commentary Thursday , 03 May 2018 TA Research, e-mail : taresearch@ta.com.my For Internal Circulation Only Review & Outlook KLSE Market Statistics (02.05.2018) Volume (mil) +/-chg (RMmn) Main Market 1,361.3 Warrants 476.8 ACE Market 249.0 Bond 10.2 ETF 0.0 LEAP 0.0 Total 2,097.3 Off Market 61.7 387.4 58.2 -62.2 7.5 -1.4 (0.0) 2,309.7 83.5 41.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 2,435.1 18.4 240.0 Value Value/ +/-chg Volume Up Down 616.9 -7.8 -7.4 -0.2 -1.6 0.0 51.6 Major Indices Index +/- chg Malaysia FBMKLCI FBMEMAS FBMSCAP May Futures Other Markets DOW JONES NASDAQ (US) FTSE (UK) NIKKEI (JAPAN) KOSPI (KOREA) HANG SENG (HK) FSSTI (S'PORE) SET (BANGKOK) JCI (JAKARTA) SHANGHAI SHENZHEN AUSTRALIA % YTD chg -0.98 -0.80 0.00 -1.21 3.07 -0.10 -14.49 3.17 23,924.98 7,100.90 7,543.20 22,472.78 2,505.61 30,723.88 3,615.28 1,791.13 6,012.24 3,081.18 1,774.90 6,050.19 -174.07 -29.81 22.84 -35.25 -9.77 -84.57 1.35 11.02 17.64 -1.05 -1.23 34.95 -0.72 -0.42 0.30 -0.16 -0.39 -0.27 0.04 0.62 0.29 -0.03 -0.07 0.58 -3.21 2.86 -1.88 -1.28 1.54 2.69 6.24 2.13 -5.40 -6.83 -6.55 -0.25 10.75 0.32 0.15 1.50 1.62 0.80 0.26 0.97 0.08 0.79 Exchange Rate USD/MYR 3.9324 -0.020 USD/JPY 109.84 0.190 EUR/USD 1.200 -0.0028 Counter MAYBANK PCHEM CIMB IHH AXIATA MAXIS HLBANK SIMEPLT DIGI GENTING Mkt Cap. Chg (RM’mn) (RM) 116,421 67,280 65,935 49,438 46,878 43,895 38,539 37,337 35,454 33,564 -0.12 -0.04 -0.16 -0.08 -0.12 -0.21 -0.16 -0.08 -0.07 -0.17 News Bites Vol. (mn) 18.79 8.79 24.51 6.06 4.73 7.92 1.19 2.16 4.04 3.31 Commodities Futures Palm Oil (RM/mt) 2,362.00 3.00 Crude Oil (Brent) 73.07 -0.31 Gold ($/tr.oz.) 1,305.80 1.20 Important Dates VS - 1:4 Bonus Issue - BI of up to 397.5m shares. 1 bonus share for every 4 existing shares held. Ex-Date: 04/05/2018. Entitlement Date: 08/05/2018. LISTING ON: 10/05/2018. The local stock market should remain in consolidation mode with downside bias given the weak buying momentum at current levels. Investors are likely to stay cautious ahead of the long anticipated GE14, where uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the event may provide volatility to the stock market. Immediate support for the index stays at 1,840, which represents the 23.6%FR of the Dec 2017 low (1,708) to the Feb 2018 peak (1,880), followed by the 100-day ma (1,830), lower Bollinger band (1,825) and subsequently the 4/4/18 pivot low of 1,811. Overhead resistance remains at 1,880, followed by the recent high of 1,896. Bearish momentum could force KUB shares down towards the low of 06/ 12/16 (RM0.36) before attracting buyers again, while a rebound would meet initial resistance at 38.2%FR (RM0.43), and then 50%FR (RM0.47). Better support is at the low of 28/11/16 (RM0.32). Likewise, Malton Berhad could sell-off below the lower Bollinger band (RM0.76) before buying support return, while a recovery would encounter resistance from 23.6%FR (RM0.95) and 38.2%FR (RM1.14), going forward. Top 10 KLCI Movers Based on Mkt Cap. (RM) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 325 172 46 7 1 0 551 % chg -18.34 -103.95 -0.05 -22.50 (mn) 20.0 14.3 9.0 5.5 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.3 204 76 28 0 3 0 311 1,852.03 12,929.74 14,579.90 1,841.50 Off Market MAYBANK MEDIA AEM SEM CARING MILUX BARAKAH N2N MMAG-PA TOMYPAK 1.70 0.18 0.17 0.06 1.64 0.00 1.16 3.89 Blue chips slumped on Wednesday, after the country's manufacturing conditions deteriorated for the third successive month during April and in tandem with softer regional market ahead of Fed Policy conclusions. The KLCI slumped 18.34 points to settle at 1,852.03, off an low of 1,842.56 and high of 1,860.82, as losers edge gainers 551 to 381 on moderate turnover of 2.09bn shares worth RM2.43bn. • Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd has allocated RM4.3bn in capital expenditure over the next 2 years for the completion of its petrochemical project in the Pengerang Integrated Complex. • Hartalega Holdings Bhd is investing over RM14.0mn to upgrade its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system. • Inta Bina Group Bhd has been appointed as the main contractor for a residential development in Shah Alam for RM57.7mn. • The consortium comprises of Gamuda Bhd and Malaysian Resources Corporation Bhd has been appointed as the project delivery partner for the northern section of the High-Speed Rail project while the consortium between YTL Corporation Bhd and Lembaga Tabung Haji is in charge for the southern section. • Harrisons Holdings (Malaysia) Bhd plans to venture into the retail business in Singapore through the acquisition of the Famous Amos cookies business there for SGD5.7mn. • Bursa Securities has cautioned that Maxwell International Holdings Bhd risks a trading suspension. • Sumatec Resources Bhd plans to seek its shareholders' approval to restate its accounts based on the IFRS, which will see it avoid a potential impairment of about RM500mn. • Barakah Offshore Petroleum Bhd's independent auditor has raised concerns over its ability to continue as going concern. • Revenue Group Bhd, a cashless payment solutions provider, has received regulatory approval from Bursa Malaysia to list on the ACE Market by July 2018. • GD Express Carrier Bhd has aborted a plan to acquire retail postal and business services firm MBE Malaysia. • QSR Brands (M) Holdings Bhd plans to raise about RM2bn from its initial public offering on Bursa Malaysia, which is set to take place by November 2018. • The High Court has ruled in favour of WCT Holdings Bhd against Aeon Co (M) Bhd (AEON). • Malaysian manufacturing conditions deteriorated for the third successive month during April, driven by faster declines in output and new orders. • A survey focused on small and mid-size manufacturing in China showing better than expected growth. • Japan's consumer confidence weakened unexpectedly in April after remaining stable in the previous month. • Fitch Ratings affirmed the sovereign ratings of Australia with a 'stable' outlook. • The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady and indicated it remains on track to raise them gradually in coming months to keep the expanding economy on an even keel. • The euro area unemployment rate remained unchanged in March, data published by Eurostat showed. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan, Head of Research MENARA TA ONE, 22 JALAN for TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A PARTICIPATING ORGANISATION OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BHD P RAMLEE, 50250 KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA TEL : 603 - 2072 1277. FAX : 603 - 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my
3. Thursday , May 03, 2018 FBMKLCI: 1,852.03 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Daily Brief Market View, News in Brief: Corporate, Economy, and Share Buybacks Chartist: Stephen Soo Tel: +603-2167 9607 stsoo@ta.com.my www.taonline.com.my M a r k e t V i e w Downside Bias on Weak Buying Momentum Blue chips slumped on Wednesday, after the country’s manufacturing conditions deteriorated for the third successive month during April and in tandem with softer regional market ahead of Fed Policy conclusions. The KLCI slumped 18.34 points to settle at 1,852.03, off an low of 1,842.56 and high of 1,860.82, as losers edge gainers 551 to 381 on moderate turnover of 2.09bn shares worth RM2.43bn. Support at 1,840, Resistance at 1,880 The local stock market should remain in consolidation mode with downside bias given the weak buying momentum at current levels. Investors are likely to stay cautious ahead of the long anticipated GE14, where uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the event may provide volatility to the stock market. Immediate support for the index stays at 1,840, which represents the 23.6%FR of the Dec 2017 low (1,708) to the Feb 2018 peak (1,880), followed by the 100-day ma (1,830), lower Bollinger band (1,825) and subsequently the 4/4/18 pivot low of 1,811. Overhead resistance remains at 1,880, followed by the recent high of 1,896. Buy on Weakness KUB & Malton Bearish momentum could force KUB shares down towards the low of 06/12/16 (RM0.36) before attracting buyers again, while a rebound would meet initial resistance at 38.2%FR (RM0.43), and then 50%FR (RM0.47). Better support is at the low of 28/11/16 (RM0.32). Likewise, Malton Berhad could sell-off below the lower Bollinger band (RM0.76) before buying support return, while a recovery would encounter resistance from 23.6%FR (RM0.95) and 38.2%FR (RM1.14), going forward. Asian Markets Sag Ahead Of Fed Policy Statement Asia-Pacific stocks were largely lower on Wednesday, as investors count down to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy statement for clues on the future pace of U.S. monetary tightening. Market focus is likely to turn to the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors will watch closely for any signals that policy makers will raise interest rates another three times this year. Later in the week, there’s the U.S. payrolls report. The Fed is seen set to hold interest rates steady this week but will likely encourage expectations that it will lift borrowing costs in June on the back of rising inflation and low unemployment. China stocks ended roughly flat as investors returning from the Labour Day holiday braced for trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials amid worries about economic health. The Shanghai Composite Index ended flat at 3,081.18 points. Japan's Nikkei 225 also edged down by 0.16 percent, or 35.25 points, to close at 22,472.78. Elsewhere, the Kospi shed 0.39 percent to close at 2,505.61 as most steelmakers slipped and automakers declined. In down under, the S&P/ASX 200 bucked the downward trend in the region to close 0.58 percent higher at 6,050.20, with broad-based gains seen in all sectors except telecommunications. Page 1 of 8
4. 3-May-18 Wall Street Slumps as Investors Digest Fed Policy Announcement U .S. stocks edged lower Wednesday after Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy announcement hinted at higher inflation ahead. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was largely expected. The central bank's policymaking committee also noted that "overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent." That was an upgrade from the March meeting in which the FOMC said the indicators "have continued to run below 2 percent." The change is key as Fed officials consider 2 percent to be a healthy level of inflation and a key for continuing to push rates higher. Worries about the possibility of the Fed raising rates faster than expected have contributed to the shakiness in markets in recent weeks. Some analysts fear higher borrowing costs for companies could threaten profits while higher Treasury yields make stocks less attractive to some investors. Stocks slid even further on the news that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering issuing an executive order restricting certain Chinese companies from selling telecommunications equipment in the United States. A Trump administration delegation is scheduled to visit Beijing on late Thursday and Friday for talks with top Chinese officials. In corporate news, Apple rose 4.4 percent after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue that surpassed market expectations. Overall, most major companies have reported quarterly earnings that outperform analyst estimates. According to Fact-Set, 79.1 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far have surpassed earnings expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 174.07 points, or 0.72 percent, to 23,924.98, the S&P 500 lost 19.13 points, or 0.72 percent, to 2,635.67 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 29.81 points, or 0.42 percent, to 7,100.90. Page 2 of 8
5. 3-May-18 News In Brief Corporate Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd has allocated RM4 .3bn in capital expenditure over the next 2 years for the completion of its petrochemical project in the Pengerang Integrated Complex. The petrochemical project is at 74% of completion as at March 2018 and it is scheduled to be operational in 2019, according its chairman Datuk Md Arif Mahmood. (New Straight Times) Hartalega Holdings Bhd is investing over RM14.0mn to upgrade its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system as part of its commitment towards realising Industry 4.0, which entails a smart manufacturing system. The pilot ERP project will begin with its next generation integrated glove manufacturing complex at Sepang this year and will be subsequently rolled out at its Bestari Jaya plants in 2019. (The Edge) Inta Bina Group Bhd has been appointed as the main contractor for a residential development in Shah Alam for RM57.7mn. The contract period shall be for a period of 18 months commencing from the date of site possession on 30 April 2018. (Bursa Malaysia) The consortium comprises of Gamuda Bhd and Malaysian Resources Corporation Bhd has been appointed as the project delivery partner for the northern section of the HighSpeed Rail project while the consortium between YTL Corporation Bhd and Lembaga Tabung Haji is in charge for the southern section. (Bursa Malaysia//The Edge) Harrisons Holdings (Malaysia) Bhd plans to venture into the retail business in Singapore through the acquisition of the Famous Amos cookies business there for SGD5.7mn. The group expects the acquisition to be completed within 3 months from signing the Sales and Purchase Agreement. (Bursa Malaysia/The Edge) RHB Bank Bhd is set to collaborate with SME Corporation Malaysia to advance cashless payments for small and medium enterprises as it strives to increase its exposure in the segment. (The Edge) Bursa Securities has cautioned that Maxwell International Holdings Bhd risks a trading suspension, as the company did not submit its annual report for FY17 by 30 April 2018 deadline. Under the listing requirement, the group is given another 5 market days to submit its outstanding report in order to avoid trading suspension on 10 May 2018. (Bursa Malaysia/The Edge) Sumatec Resources Bhd plans to seek its shareholders’ approval to restate its accounts based on the International Financial Reporting Standards, which will see it avoid a potential impairment of about RM500mn. (The Edge) Barakah Offshore Petroleum Bhd’s independent auditor has raised concerns over its ability to continue as going concern due to the group’s losses and borrowings for the financial year ended 31 December 2017. (Bursa Malaysia) Revenue Group Bhd, a cashless payment solutions provider, has received regulatory approval from Bursa Malaysia to list on the ACE Market by July 2018. (The Edge) GD Express Carrier Bhd has aborted a plan to acquire retail postal and business services firm MBE Malaysia as the parties involved had failed to meet certain conditions precedent as at the cut-off date of April 30, 2018. (Bursa Malaysia/The Star) Page 3 of 8
6. 3-May-18 Asdion Bhd , slapped with an unusual market activity (UMA) query from Bursa Malaysia, said it is actively exploring avenues to enhance shareholder value. It said it is unaware of any other corporate developments that may have accounted for the UMA, including those in the stages of negotiation or discussion. (Bursa Malaysia/The Edge) QSR Brands (M) Holdings Bhd plans to raise about RM2bn from its initial public offering on Bursa Malaysia, which is set to take place by November 2018. (The Star) The High Court has ruled in favour of WCT Holdings Bhd against Aeon Co (M) Bhd (AEON) in a case involving the lease renewal for AEON Mall Bukit Tinggi. However, AEON intends to appeal against the decision. (Bursa Malaysia/The Edge) Tanco Holdings Bhd announced the demise of its adviser and non-independent nonexecutive director Datuk Seri Tan Jing Nam at the age of 62. The Board of Directors will appoint suitable candidate to fill the vacancy in due course. (Bursa Malaysia) Public Bank Bhd's net profit for 1QFY18 rose 12.6% YoY to RM1.4bn, from RM1.3bn, underpinned by a sustained growth of 4.0% in the group’s net interest income, complemented by a strong growth of 15.6% in non-interest income. Meanwhile, quarterly revenue rose 6.4% YoY to RM5.4bn, from RM5.0bn previously. (Bursa Malaysia/The Edge) Page 4 of 8
7. 3-May-18 N e w s I n B r i e f Economy Asia Malaysia Manufacturing Business Conditions Deteriorate Further in April Malaysian manufacturing conditions deteriorated for the third successive month during April , driven by faster declines in output and new orders. Lower production requirements and subdued demand conditions led to firms reducing their purchasing activity and preproduction inventories. Meanwhile, input cost inflation was sharp and in line with the series trend. At the same time, business sentiment was the highest in four-and-a-half years. Subsequently, Malaysian manufacturing companies continued to raise their staffing levels. The headline Nikkei Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – fell from 49.5 to 48.6 in April. This was indicative of a modest deterioration in the health of the sector that was the strongest since October 2017. Notably, the latest decline outstripped the series trend. Central to the overall downturn was a marked reduction in new orders during April. Moreover, the rate of contraction quickened to the fastest since July 2017. Lacklustre demand was cited by panellists as the key factor contributing to a decline in new work. Meanwhile, new export orders fell at a solid pace that was the strongest since December 2016. Another key factor contributing to the downward movement in the headline PMI Index was a fall in output for the second consecutive month in April. Though modest, the pace of decline quickened to the fastest since July 2017. According to anecdotal evidence, weak demand conditions were behind the latest downturn. (Markit Economics) Malaysia Retail Prices of Petrol, Diesel Stay the Same The retail prices for RON95 and RON97 petrol, as well as for diesel remained the same until next Wednesday, the Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Ministry posted on its website. The prices are RON95 at RM2.20 per litre, for RON97 (RM2.47/litre) and diesel (RM2.18/ litre). The mechanism for fixing the weekly petrol and diesel prices, announced every Wednesday, was implemented in March 2017. (The Sun Daily) A Major Chinese Manufacturing Indicator Shows Better Growth than Expected A survey focused on small and mid-size manufacturing in China showing better than expected growth. The private Caixin/Markit PMI, which focuses on small and mid-size businesses in China, came in at 51.1 for April, versus an expected 50.9. In March, it was 51. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below that signals contraction. This followed the release of official April manufacturing PMI data on Monday, which showed that expansion in China's manufacturing sector slowed slightly. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in April, from 51.5 in March. The softer reading, especially slower export orders, adds to concerns about an expected loss of momentum in the world's second-largest economy, as policymakers navigate debt risks and a heated trade row with the U.S. (CNBC) Japan Consumer Confidence Weakens Unexpectedly in April Japan's consumer confidence weakened unexpectedly in April after remaining stable in the previous month, data from Cabinet Office showed. The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index dropped to an eight-month low of 43.6 in April from 44.3 in March. Meanwhile, economists had expected the index to rise to 44.5. The sub-index for livelihood fell to 41.5 in April from 42.0 in the previous month. The component index for income growth edged down to 42.3 from 42.6. Similarly, the gauge measuring willingness to buy durable goods slid to 42.3 from 42.7 and the employment index declined from 49.1 to 47.9. The survey was conducted among 8,400 households on April 15. (RTT) Page 5 of 8
8. 3-May-18 Fitch Retains Australia 's Sovereign Ratings at 'AAA' Fitch Ratings affirmed the sovereign ratings of Australia with a 'stable' outlook. The rating agency said Australia's 'AAA' rating is underpinned by strong governance, high income levels, and a track record of macroeconomic stability. Fitch noted that the effective policy-making framework has supported the nation to log 26 consecutive years of GDP growth without a recession, despite substantial external, financial and commodity price shocks during this period. Fitch projected a moderate acceleration in GDP growth to 2.7% in both 2018 and 2019, above the 'AAA' median. Monetary policy is forecast to remain accommodative and supportive of growth over the next two years in the absence of significant wage growth or inflationary pressures. The general government fiscal deficit is estimated to narrow to 1.8% in FY18 on robust revenue collection. (RTT) United States Fed Holds Rates Steady, but Indicates Increases Will Continue The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady and indicated it remains on track to raise them gradually in coming months to keep the expanding economy on an even keel. The Fed, in a statement released after its two-day policy meeting, offered nothing to dispel market expectations that it would deliver its second rate increase of the year when it meets in June. Officials acknowledged the recent firming of inflation, which they had forecast for many months, but signaled no plans to pick up the pace of rate increases in response. Consumer prices rose 2% in March from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, after nearly a year in which inflation softened unexpectedly. So-called core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors, rose 1.9% in March, up from 1.6% in February. Several changes to the Fed’s policy statement reflected those developments. Both overall and core inflation “have moved close to 2%,” the statement said, replacing language that had highlighted last year’s shortfall. (WSJ) Private Sector Posts Another Month of Employment Growth Hiring at private U.S. employers grew more than expected in April, according to a report, as employment continued to grow despite signs of potential labor shortages. Firms across the country added 204,000 workers last month, according to payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected the addition of 190,000 jobs in April. April marks the sixth straight month of job growth at 200,000 or more, the report said. The March figure was revised down to 228,000 from 241,000. Midsize businesses added the most jobs in the month, though small and large firms also contributed, the report said. The job growth came from across industries, with the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounting for more than half of all jobs added in the month. The ADP report is based on private-payroll data in addition to government data. The ADP report comes ahead of the monthly jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm jobs to rise by 195,000 for April, compared with a gain of 103,000 the prior month. (WSJ) Europe and Uni ted Kingdom Eurozone Economy Wavers in First Quarter The Eurozone economy slowed in the first three months of this year, denting—but not ending—hopes of another year of strong growth after the currency bloc recorded its fastest expansion in a decade. The Eurozone entered the year on a high after outpacing the U.S. for the second straight year in 2017, inspiring early claims by business leaders that Europe’s economy had bounced back from years of crisis. But figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency recorded a dip in growth during the first quarter. The currency area’s gross domestic product—the most comprehensive measure of the output of goods and services in an economy—increased at an annualized rate of 1.7%, down from 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. That was a weaker expansion than the 2.3% recorded in the U.S. during the same period. The figures didn’t come as a surprise, since measures of output in industry and construction, as well as figures for retail sales, had pointed toward slower Page 6 of 8
9. 3-May-18 growth . What isn’t yet clear is whether the factors that lay behind the slowdown were temporary, or will prove more long-lasting. (WSJ) Eurozone Manufacturing Gauge Drops to 13-Month Low Eurozone factory bosses pointed to a further slowdown in the pace of growth in April, with a closely-watched manufacturing gauge dropping to a 13-month low. Five out of the eight countries included in IHS Markit’s euro area manufacturing purchasing managers’ index — the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Spain and Greece — indicated that growth had slowed compared to March, although manufacturers in the currency bloc’s second-largest economy, France, reported stronger expansion. The final reading for the sector came in at 56.2, better than the flash estimate of 56, but a sizeable dip from March’s figure of 56.6. The slowdown in the headline reading was mainly due to slower increases in new orders and employment, IHS Markit said. Growth of new export orders slowed everywhere except Germany and France. (Financial Times) Eurozone Jobless Rate Steady at 8.5% The euro area unemployment rate remained unchanged in March, data published by Eurostat showed. The jobless rate held steady at 8.5% in March, the lowest since December 2008. The rate stood at 9.4% in March 2017. The number of unemployed persons fell by 83,000 from previous month to 13.82 million in March. Compared to previous year, unemployment decreased by 1.414 million. The unemployment rate among youth, aged under 25, slid to 17.3% in March from 17.5% in February. In the EU28, the unemployment rate came in at 7.1%, unchanged from February. This was the lowest since September 2008. (RTT) UK Construction Sector Rebounds in April UK construction sector rebounded in April from the weather-related disruptions seen in March, survey data from IHS Markit showed. The Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply construction Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.5 in April from a 20-month low of 47.0 in March. The latest reading was the highest since November 2017 and well above the forecast of 50.5. Residential work was by far the best performing category of construction activity in April. Weather-related improvements were also seen for commercial building and civil engineering activity. (RTT) Page 7 of 8
10. 3-May-18 Share Buy-Back 02-May 2018 Company Bought Back CHINWEL E &O HAIO KOMARK LIENHOE PRESTAR RCECAP SIGN SNTORIA SYSCORP TEXCYCL TROP 20,400 60,000 9,500 116,400 52,000 5,700 50,000 80,000 20,000 270,000 22,600 97,000 Price (RM) 1.61 1.41 4.93/4.88 0.18 0.35 0.86 1.29 0.53/0.52 0.59/0.57 0.25/0.245 0.68 0.88/0.875 Total Treasury Shares 1.63/1.61 5,051,200 1.41/1.38 29,271,747 4.94/4.86 9,304,488 0.175/0.165 7,788,900 0.35/0.34 20,516,100 0.865/0.86 7,841,500 1.30/1.28 14,710,425 0.53/0.52 13,887,100 0.63/0.56 8,285,800 0.25/0.24 7,244,800 0.69/0.68 1,970,550 0.88/0.87 6,742,942 Source: Bursa Malaysia Hi/ Lo (RM) Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 8 of 8
11. For Internal Circulation Only SNAPSHOT OF STOCKS UNDER COVERAGE Company Share Price Target Price (RM) (RM) % upside Recom Market Cap. (RMm) BETA EPS (sen) FY18 FY19 PER (X) FY18 FY19 Div Yield (%) FY18 FY19 52weeks 52weeks % Chg High Price % Chg Low Price % Chg YTD 27-Apr-18 AUTOMOBILE BAUTO 2.22 2.33 5.0% Buy 2,573 0.60 12.1 19.0 18.3 11.7 4.9 5.2 2.47 -10.1 1.84 20.7 MBMR 2.40 2.68 11.7% Hold 938 0.74 24.7 26.9 9.7 8.9 2.5 2.9 2.60 -7.7 2.01 19.4 0.9 9.1 PECCA 1.12 1.62 44.6% Buy 206 0.68 9.7 10.9 11.5 10.2 4.5 4.5 1.70 -34.1 1.12 0.0 -27.7 SIME 2.61 2.55 -2.3% Sell 17,750 1.73 13.2 16.4 19.8 15.9 1.3 1.6 3.06 -14.7 2.03 28.8 18.1 UMW 6.15 5.52 -10.2% Sell 7,185 1.37 28.6 40.2 21.5 15.3 2.3 3.3 6.98 -11.9 4.70 30.9 18.3 BANKS & FINANCIAL SERVICES ABMB 4.18 4.60 10.0% Sell 6,471 1.18 32.6 35.8 12.8 11.7 3.8 3.8 4.49 -6.9 3.62 15.5 2.5 AFFIN 2.53 2.40 -5.1% Sell 4,916 0.93 22.2 23.9 11.4 10.6 3.2 3.2 2.98 -15.0 2.22 13.9 9.5 -13.8 AMBANK 3.80 4.70 23.7% Buy 11,454 1.59 38.1 44.4 10.0 8.6 4.7 4.7 5.70 -33.3 3.61 5.3 CIMB 7.04 8.60 22.2% Buy 65,935 1.58 58.2 59.9 12.1 11.8 4.1 4.3 7.39 -4.7 5.71 23.3 7.6 HLBANK 18.84 21.30 13.1% Buy 38,539 0.90 116.8 126.8 16.1 14.9 2.5 2.5 20.02 -5.9 13.78 36.7 10.8 MAYBANK 10.66 11.50 7.9% Buy 116,421 0.97 73.6 77.7 14.5 13.7 5.2 5.2 10.84 -1.7 9.10 17.1 8.8 PBBANK 24.00 29.50 22.9% Buy 92,676 0.73 153.3 166.5 15.7 14.4 2.6 2.7 24.50 -2.0 19.90 20.6 15.5 RHBBANK 5.22 6.10 16.9% Buy 20,932 1.52 54.3 59.0 9.6 8.9 2.9 2.9 5.61 -7.0 4.71 10.8 4.4 BURSA 7.20 8.07 12.1% Buy 5,805 0.93 29.2 30.0 24.6 24.0 3.3 3.3 7.65 -5.9 6.31 14.0 6.7 ANNJOO 2.90 4.34 49.7% Buy 1,553 1.23 42.2 45.0 6.9 6.4 7.5 8.5 3.98 -27.1 2.80 3.6 -24.9 CHINHIN 1.08 1.32 22.2% Buy 601 0.94 10.7 10.5 10.1 10.3 5.7 5.0 1.49 -27.5 1.00 8.5 -10.7 CSCSTEL 1.38 1.70 23.2% Buy 510 0.88 17.4 17.9 7.9 7.7 6.8 6.9 2.05 -32.5 1.27 8.7 -10.4 ENGTEX 0.97 1.38 43.0% Buy 421 0.92 13.8 15.7 7.0 6.1 4.3 5.7 1.52 -36.5 0.95 1.6 -12.3 GADANG 0.82 1.34 64.4% Buy 539 1.42 14.0 16.6 5.8 4.9 3.7 3.7 1.37 -40.5 0.80 1.9 -26.6 GAMUDA 5.11 5.84 14.3% Buy 12,581 0.84 34.4 36.4 14.9 14.0 2.3 2.3 5.52 -7.4 4.58 11.6 3.0 IJM 2.73 2.96 8.4% Hold 9,904 1.42 13.7 18.2 19.9 15.0 3.5 3.5 3.60 -24.2 2.53 7.9 -10.5 BUILDING MATERIALS CONSTRUCTION KAB 0.23 0.38 66.7% Buy 7 na 31.4 37.3 0.7 0.6 4.4 5.3 0.33 -31.8 0.20 12.5 -25.0 PESONA 0.30 0.45 52.5% Buy 205 1.62 5.0 4.5 5.9 6.5 5.1 5.1 0.72 -59.0 0.29 1.7 -34.4 SENDAI 0.88 0.79 -10.2% Sell 687 1.63 9.9 8.7 8.9 10.1 1.1 1.1 1.39 -36.7 0.68 29.4 1.7 SUNCON 2.22 2.65 19.4% Hold 2,869 0.80 14.7 16.4 15.1 13.5 3.6 4.1 2.64 -15.9 1.92 15.6 -11.6 WCT 1.24 1.50 21.0% Sell 1,745 1.08 11.3 10.8 11.0 11.5 2.4 2.4 2.48 -49.9 1.13 9.7 -23.5 LITRAK 5.67 6.26 10.4% Hold 2,993 0.32 45.6 47.1 12.4 12.0 4.4 4.4 6.15 -7.8 5.37 5.6 2.2 CARLSBG 18.56 18.09 -2.5% Buy 5,709 0.59 87.8 91.8 21.1 20.2 4.6 4.8 20.88 -11.1 14.28 30.0 22.0 HEIM 20.86 21.64 3.7% Hold 6,302 0.49 93.0 101.6 22.4 20.5 3.6 3.8 23.04 -9.5 17.30 20.6 10.4 AEON 2.02 1.97 -2.5% Buy 2,836 0.28 7.5 8.9 26.8 22.6 2.2 2.5 2.50 -19.2 1.45 39.3 14.8 AMWAY 7.63 8.59 12.6% Buy 1,254 0.55 48.3 49.9 15.8 15.3 5.2 5.4 8.10 -5.8 6.97 9.5 4.4 F&N 35.88 33.74 -6.0% Buy 13,152 0.48 122.7 145.8 29.2 24.6 2.2 2.6 36.76 -2.4 23.40 53.3 32.9 CONSUMER Brewery Retail HUPSENG 1.07 1.25 16.8% Buy 856 0.41 5.8 6.2 18.4 17.4 5.6 5.6 1.28 -16.4 1.02 4.9 -1.8 JOHOTIN 0.92 1.48 60.9% Buy 286 1.23 11.1 11.7 8.3 7.8 6.5 7.1 1.76 -47.7 0.90 2.2 -24.0 NESTLE 133.10 129.90 -2.4% Sell 31,212 0.66 322.2 360.2 41.3 37.0 2.3 2.4 163.00 -18.3 81.00 64.3 29.0 PADINI 4.26 4.67 9.6% Sell 2,803 0.94 28.0 30.4 15.2 14.0 2.9 3.1 5.50 -22.5 3.17 34.5 -19.3 -30.7 POHUAT 1.24 1.78 43.5% Buy 273 0.56 20.1 23.1 6.2 5.4 4.8 6.5 2.07 -40.1 1.15 7.8 QL 5.31 5.41 1.9% Hold 8,615 0.64 13.3 15.5 39.8 34.2 0.8 0.9 5.31 0.0 3.65 45.3 22.1 SIGN 0.53 0.92 73.6% Buy 120 0.92 6.6 8.7 8.0 6.1 4.7 6.6 1.04 -49.0 0.48 10.4 -24.8 23.78 34.72 46.0% Buy 6,790 1.38 170.8 168.8 13.9 14.1 6.7 6.7 46.44 -48.8 22.62 5.1 -40.6 GENTING 8.76 11.58 32.2% Buy 33,564 1.33 54.1 60.6 16.2 14.5 1.8 1.8 9.92 -11.7 8.47 3.4 -4.0 GENM 5.00 6.68 33.6% Buy 28,293 1.50 27.6 32.0 18.1 15.6 2.4 2.6 6.28 -20.4 4.59 8.9 -9.8 2.11 3.22 52.6% Buy 2,842 0.58 19.9 26.0 10.6 8.1 7.6 8.5 2.83 -25.4 2.06 2.4 -5.8 CCMDBIO 2.89 3.40 17.6% Buy 806 0.82 16.2 17.7 17.8 16.3 1.6 1.7 3.05 -5.2 1.97 46.7 14.2 IHH 6.00 6.40 6.7% Sell 49,438 0.70 11.9 15.0 50.5 40.1 0.5 0.6 6.33 -5.2 5.42 10.7 2.4 KPJ 0.92 1.13 22.8% Buy 3,877 0.61 3.9 4.3 23.5 21.2 2.4 2.6 1.14 -19.3 0.84 9.5 -5.2 HARTA 5.78 7.80 34.9% Sell 19,143 0.95 12.6 14.4 46.0 40.1 1.3 1.5 6.64 -13.0 2.45 135.9 8.2 KOSSAN 6.74 9.73 44.4% Buy 4,310 0.66 37.4 42.1 18.0 16.0 2.8 3.1 8.79 -23.3 5.62 19.9 -16.9 Tobacco BAT GAMING Casino NFO BJTOTO HEALTHCARE Hospitals/ Pharmaceutical Rubber Gloves SUPERMX 2.93 2.70 -7.8% Buy 1,921 0.64 20.0 22.6 14.7 13.0 1.8 2.1 3.01 -2.7 1.69 73.4 46.5 TOPGLOV 9.51 12.20 28.3% Buy 12,147 0.60 35.3 42.7 26.9 22.3 1.5 1.8 10.44 -8.9 4.57 108.1 19.0 KAREX 0.76 0.93 22.4% Sell 762 0.76 1.8 3.0 42.9 25.1 0.6 1.0 2.26 -66.4 0.75 1.3 -41.5 SCIENTX 7.58 10.01 32.1% Buy 3,706 0.93 67.5 79.4 11.2 9.5 2.8 3.4 9.85 -23.0 7.45 1.7 -12.5 SKPRES 1.48 2.00 35.1% Buy 1,850 0.93 10.4 14.8 14.3 10.0 3.5 5.0 2.35 -37.0 1.25 18.4 -35.1 ASTRO 1.83 2.90 58.5% Buy 9,541 0.98 12.4 13.8 14.7 13.2 6.8 6.8 2.94 -37.8 1.75 4.6 -30.9 MEDIA PRIMA 0.32 0.45 42.9% Sell 349 1.39 -3.8 -1.7 na na 0.0 0.0 1.20 -73.8 0.29 8.6 -58.6 STAR 1.09 1.20 10.1% Sell 804 1.15 6.2 5.9 17.6 18.4 8.3 8.3 2.22 -50.8 1.04 4.8 -33.9 INDUSTRIAL MEDIA
12. For Internal Circulation Only SNAPSHOT OF STOCKS UNDER COVERAGE Company Share Price Target Price (RM) (RM) % upside Recom Market Cap. (RMm) BETA EPS (sen) FY18 FY19 PER (X) FY18 FY19 Div Yield (%) FY18 FY19 52weeks 52weeks % Chg High Price % Chg Low Price % Chg YTD OIL & GAS DNEX 0.39 0.69 76.9% Buy 685 2.00 4.0 4.3 9.8 9.1 2.6 2.6 0.69 -43.5 0.34 16.4 -19.6 LCTITAN 5.64 7.47 32.4% Buy 12,820 na 47.8 50.7 11.8 11.1 3.7 4.1 6.53 -13.6 4.14 36.2 20.0 MHB 0.81 0.81 0.6% Sell 1,288 1.44 0.5 1.7 167.6 48.3 0.0 0.0 1.01 -20.3 0.63 28.8 -2.4 MISC 7.03 7.00 -0.4% Sell 31,380 1.05 50.1 53.8 14.0 13.1 4.3 4.3 7.90 -11.0 6.73 4.5 -5.3 PANTECH 0.59 0.77 31.6% Buy 435 1.43 6.4 7.0 9.2 8.4 4.3 4.6 0.74 -20.9 0.51 14.7 -9.3 PCHEM 8.41 9.00 7.0% Hold 67,280 0.84 52.5 53.8 16.0 15.6 3.1 3.1 8.65 -2.8 6.80 23.7 9.2 SAPNRG 0.71 0.84 18.3% Buy 4,254 2.95 -5.0 -1.7 na na 0.0 0.0 2.02 -64.9 0.40 79.7 0.0 SERBADK 3.33 4.15 24.6% Buy 4,890 na 27.7 31.5 12.0 10.6 2.7 3.0 3.68 -9.5 1.79 86.0 2.8 UMWOG 0.28 0.39 39.3% Buy 2,300 2.59 0.4 1.2 73.3 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.67 -58.4 0.22 30.2 -8.2 UZMA 1.37 1.57 14.6% Hold 438 1.25 12.9 13.9 10.6 9.9 0.0 0.0 1.87 -26.7 1.18 16.1 7.0 FGV 1.68 2.09 24.4% Buy 6,129 1.65 2.0 3.4 83.1 49.3 3.0 3.0 2.18 -22.9 1.51 11.3 -0.6 IJMPLNT 2.25 2.23 -0.9% Sell 1,981 0.23 6.5 8.2 34.4 27.4 3.6 4.0 3.22 -30.1 2.19 2.7 -17.9 IOICORP 4.79 5.43 13.4% Buy 29,249 0.92 19.0 21.3 25.2 22.5 5.5 3.5 4.81 -0.4 4.21 13.9 8.1 KFIMA 1.48 1.89 27.7% Buy 417 0.70 13.7 13.8 10.8 10.7 6.1 6.1 1.96 -24.5 1.44 2.8 -5.7 KLK 25.42 27.76 9.2% Hold 27,071 0.60 107.6 116.0 23.6 21.9 2.1 2.2 25.98 -2.2 23.80 6.8 1.7 SIMEPLT 5.49 6.27 14.2% Hold 37,337 na 19.6 20.0 28.0 27.5 2.6 2.9 6.00 -8.5 4.58 19.9 -8.5 TSH 1.29 1.81 40.3% Buy 1,781 0.47 9.3 9.6 13.9 13.4 1.9 1.9 1.82 -29.1 1.26 2.4 -21.8 UMCCA 6.04 6.21 2.8% Sell 1,266 0.39 17.0 22.4 35.6 27.0 2.6 3.0 7.08 -14.7 5.97 1.1 -7.2 GLOMAC 0.50 0.40 -20.0% Sell 397 0.66 1.5 2.5 33.1 20.2 2.0 2.0 0.65 -22.5 0.45 11.1 -9.8 HUAYANG 0.47 0.58 23.4% Sell 165 0.93 0.7 3.4 70.9 13.8 1.1 1.1 1.10 -57.3 0.44 6.8 -23.0 IBRACO 0.73 0.80 9.6% Buy 362 na 7.2 10.7 10.1 6.8 4.1 5.5 0.92 -20.7 0.50 46.0 -10.4 IOIPG 1.51 1.92 27.2% Buy 8,314 0.94 14.9 14.7 10.2 10.3 4.0 4.0 2.22 -32.0 1.49 1.3 -18.4 MAHSING 1.04 1.59 52.9% Buy 2,525 0.93 11.8 11.3 8.8 9.2 6.3 6.3 1.64 -36.6 0.98 6.1 -28.3 SIMEPROP 1.46 1.51 3.4% Hold 9,929 na 7.5 7.5 19.4 19.5 2.7 2.1 1.78 -18.0 1.04 40.4 -18.0 SNTORIA 0.57 0.76 33.3% Buy 319 0.36 8.3 8.6 6.9 6.6 1.8 1.8 0.82 -30.3 0.56 1.8 -18.0 SPB 4.21 5.10 21.1% Hold 1,447 0.69 18.7 24.0 22.5 17.5 2.9 2.9 5.50 -23.5 4.14 1.7 -14.1 SPSETIA 3.06 3.73 21.9% Buy 11,903 1.10 19.8 19.4 15.4 15.8 3.9 3.9 4.38 -30.2 2.77 10.5 -23.5 SUNWAY 1.51 1.75 15.9% Hold 7,357 1.02 11.8 12.4 12.8 12.1 4.0 4.0 1.96 -22.9 1.46 3.4 -7.4 SUNREIT 1.68 1.87 11.3% Hold 4,948 1.01 10.0 10.7 16.7 15.7 6.0 6.4 1.90 -11.6 1.48 13.5 -11.6 CMMT 1.17 1.48 26.5% Buy 2,388 0.97 7.9 8.4 14.8 14.0 7.0 7.3 1.83 -36.1 0.98 19.4 -36.1 PLANTATIONS PROPERTY REIT POWER & UTILITIES MALAKOF 0.90 0.82 -8.4% Sell 4,420 1.04 6.7 7.3 13.4 12.3 7.8 7.8 1.24 -27.8 0.85 5.3 -8.7 PETDAG 26.74 24.08 -9.9% Sell 26,565 0.61 114.7 116.3 23.3 23.0 3.2 3.3 28.18 -5.1 20.81 28.5 11.2 PETGAS 18.20 19.46 6.9% Buy 36,013 0.90 99.3 100.0 18.3 18.2 3.8 3.8 19.80 -8.1 15.82 15.0 4.1 TENAGA 15.84 18.22 15.0% Buy 89,942 0.60 131.3 127.5 12.1 12.4 4.1 4.0 16.34 -3.1 13.72 15.5 3.8 YTLPOWR 0.93 1.16 24.7% Sell 7,374 0.90 8.5 8.7 11.0 10.6 5.4 5.4 1.50 -38.0 0.92 1.6 -27.9 TELECOMMUNICATIONS AXIATA 5.18 6.50 25.5% Buy 46,878 1.61 15.9 19.4 32.5 26.6 1.6 3.0 5.82 -11.0 4.54 14.1 -5.6 DIGI 4.56 5.15 12.9% Buy 35,454 0.91 19.6 20.2 23.3 22.5 4.3 4.4 5.12 -10.9 4.36 4.6 -10.6 MAXIS 5.62 5.95 5.9% Sell 43,895 1.05 24.9 24.8 22.6 22.7 3.6 3.6 6.60 -14.8 5.30 6.0 -6.5 TM 5.34 7.20 34.8% Buy 20,067 0.68 22.8 24.9 23.4 21.5 3.8 4.2 6.69 -20.2 4.90 9.0 -15.2 ELSOFT 2.48 3.30 33.1% Buy 683 0.91 13.1 14.9 18.9 16.6 3.7 4.2 2.95 -15.9 2.22 11.7 -8.1 IRIS 0.16 0.22 37.5% Buy 396 2.49 0.0 0.3 581.6 50.5 0.0 0.0 0.25 -34.7 0.14 18.5 -13.5 INARI 1.81 2.40 32.6% Buy 5,636 0.62 9.1 10.2 19.9 17.8 3.6 4.0 2.55 -28.9 1.32 37.4 -20.1 MPI 7.70 10.70 39.0% Buy 1,532 1.11 73.9 86.9 10.4 8.9 4.2 4.2 14.52 -47.0 7.57 1.7 -39.0 UNISEM 1.78 2.75 54.5% Buy 1,306 1.43 13.1 18.6 13.6 9.6 6.2 6.2 4.25 -58.1 1.76 1.1 -51.2 TECHNOLOGY Semiconductor & Electronics TRANSPORTATION Airlines AIRASIA 3.83 4.93 28.7% Hold 12,800 0.86 41.0 41.0 9.3 9.3 2.1 2.1 4.75 -19.4 2.89 32.5 14.3 AIRPORT 8.98 8.61 -4.1% Sell 14,900 1.06 18.0 18.8 50.0 47.8 1.4 1.1 9.45 -5.0 7.86 14.2 2.2 Freight & Tankers PTRANS 0.25 0.46 87.8% Buy 311 na 2.3 3.7 10.6 6.6 2.8 4.5 0.38 -35.8 0.23 8.9 -12.5 TNLOGIS 1.09 1.45 33.0% Buy 497 1.05 12.0 12.3 9.1 8.8 4.6 4.6 1.79 -39.2 0.99 10.1 -18.7 WPRTS 3.30 4.06 23.0% Buy 11,253 0.42 15.6 20.0 21.2 16.5 3.5 4.5 4.06 -18.7 3.12 5.8 -10.8 SNAPSHOT OF FOREIGN STOCKS UNDER COVERAGE Company Share Price Target Price (S$) (S$) % upside Recom Market Cap. (S$m) Beta EPS (cent) FY18 FY19 PER (X) FY18 FY19 Div Yield (%) FY18 FY19 52week 52week % Chg High Price % Chg Low Price % Chg YTD BANKS & FINANCIAL SERVICES DBS 30.61 36.10 17.9% Buy 78,480 1.15 212.3 246.0 14.4 12.4 2.1 2.3 31.3 -2.1 20.01 53.0 23.2 OCBC 13.96 14.30 2.4% Buy 58,389 1.18 109.6 123.3 12.7 11.3 6.7 7.7 14.0 -0.6 10.02 39.3 12.7 UOB 29.99 27.80 -7.3% Hold 49,809 1.17 216.8 244.2 13.8 13.8 2.7 2.7 30.4 -1.3 22.50 33.3 14.2 PLANTATIONS WILMAR 3.28 3.50 6.7% Buy 20,987 0.84 25.4 27.7 12.9 11.8 3.0 3.4 3.9 -15.2 2.97 10.4 6.1 IFAR 0.31 0.37 19.4% Buy 445 1.02 3.1 3.9 10.1 8.0 1.3 1.7 0.5 -39.8 0.30 3.3 -20.5 BUY : Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point. HOLD : Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by between 0-5%-point. SELL : Total return is lower than the required rate of return. Total Return is defined as expected share price appreciation plus gross dividend over the next 12 months. Gross dividend is excluded from total return if dividend discount model valuation is used to avoid double counting. Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium.
13. COMPANY UPDATE www .bursamids.com Thursday, May 03, 2018 Sector: Consumer THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* TP: RM1.25 (+17.0%) Hup Seng Industries Berhad Last Traded: RM1.07 Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for FY18 Damia Othman Tel: +603-2167-9602 Buy damia@ta.com.my Results Preview Hup Seng will release its 1Q18 quarterly results this month. We expect 1Q18 profit to come in the range of between RM10mn and RM13mn, or little changed from RM11.5mn achieved in 1Q17. We expect a few factors to play out and influence the 1Q18 results performance, including: i) stable domestic and export sale growth; ii) lower crude palm oil (CPO) price to provide earnings support and buffer against, iii) higher fuel and packaging costs stemming from higher crude oil price. Refined Palm Oil Costs Expected to be Favourable Refined palm oil is one of the key raw materials used in Hup Seng’s production. It is usually priced at a 20% to 30% premium to the price of CPO. In our forecast, we have assumed the refined palm oil price to trade at an average RM3,000/tonne, down from the average RM3,300/tonne for FY17, thus providing the earnings support to FY18 earnings. Based on our sensitivity analysis, every 10% decline in CPO price, Hup Seng’s core net earnings are expected to improve by 7.3% ceteris paribus. For 1Q18, we expect the refined palm oil price to fall in tandem with the CPO price, which has declined by 21.2% YoY in 1Q18. This is expected to provide some buffer against the rise in cost of sales in 1Q18. www.taonline.com.my 6. Stock Return Information 5 FBM KLCI % Expected Share Price Return (%) Expected Dividend Return (%) Expected Total Return (%) 1,852.03 17.0 4.8 17.0 Share Information Bloomberg Code Stock Code Listing Issued Share (mn) Market Cap (RMmn) Par Value (RM) 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) Estimated Free Float (%) Beta (x) 3-Month Average Volume ('000) Top 3 Shareholders (%) HSB Group Sdn Bhd Norges Bank Cekap Kapital Sdn Bhd HSI MK 5024 Main Market 800.0 856.0 0.1 1.28/1.02 31.7 0.4 46.9 51.0 2.8 2.5 Share Performance (%) Price Change HSI MK 1 mth 1.9 3 mth (3.6) 12 mth (8.5) FBM KLCI 0.1 (1.0) 4.5 Financial Info Rise in other cost components However, based on our assumptions that packaging and logistics costs would escalate by as much as 20% in FY18 - in tandem with the rise in crude oil price, we expect it to dilute some of the growth generated by lower refined palm oil price. Note that prices of packaging materials like carton and plastic material prices are correlated with the movement of crude oil price, which is expected to rise to average US$60/b in 2018 from USD50/b last year. Transportation cost would also increase due to higher diesel price. Debt to equity ratio ROA (%) ROE (%) NTA/Share (RM) Price/ NTA (x) FY18 net cash 19.1 28.8 0.2 6.2 FY19 net cash 19.9 30.2 0.2 6.1 (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI Besides, staff costs are expected to rise further after the implementation of new policy that employers must bear the cost of levy payment for new foreign workers as well as foreign workers who have renewed their temporary employment visit pass. Based on 240 foreign workers employed by the company, there would be additional RM444,000 staff cost as levy payment for FY18. Stable Sales Growth As far as sales are concerned, we expect Hup Seng’s FY18 revenue growth to be driven mainly by higher exports to the Middle East and China markets on the back of: i) higher sales incentives; and ii) promotional sponsorship activities for the distributors. We also expect domestic sales to grow organically by 2.8% in FY18. Source: Bloomberg Page 1 of 3
14. 3-May-18 We understand from management that the company has no intention to raise product prices in the near future . As such, domestic sales are expected to be stable and revenue growth is expected to be resilient. Healthy Balance Sheet The investment merit for Hup Seng share is always about its attractive dividend yield. With a 60% dividend policy, investors can benefit from a compelling divided payment, which yields 4.8% in FY18. Note that Hup Seng is currently in a net cash position without any loans. The healthy balance sheet and low capex requirement would ensure dividend sustainability at average dividend yield of 4.8% over the next three years. Impact We raise our earnings forecasts by 1.7% and 3.1% for FY18 and FY19 respectively after imputing the audited FY17 results into our forecasts. Recommendation Maintain BUY call on the stock with unchanged target price of RM1.25/share based on DDM valuation (k: 7.6%, g: 2.5%). Risks to our call are i) higher-than-expected refined palm oil costs; ii) lower-than-expected domestic as well as export sales; and iii) higher-than-expected labour costs. Figure 1: CPO Price Estimate of RM2,500/tonne for 2018 Figure 2: Export is Main Revenue Driver 350.0 120.0% 4,000 300.0 3,500 286.9 250.0 3,000 2,500 RMmn RM/Tonne 247.8 285.6 299.7 312.4 262.2 251.4 100.0% 80.0% 200.0 60.0% 150.0 40.0% 100.0 50.0 27.5% 26.6% 26.9% 28.3% 28.1% 29.0% 30.0% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E 20.0% 2,000 - 1,500 Source: Bloomberg, TA Securities 0.0% Group Revenue - LHS Export Sales/Revenue - RHS Source: Company, TA Securities Page 2 of 3
15. 3-May-18 Earnings Summary INCOME STATEMENT FYE Dec 31 (RMmn) BALANCE SHEET 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F FYE Dec 31 (RMmn) 2018E 2019F 2020F 77.1 77.7 75.6 73.7 72.0 Investment properties 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 70.7 Deferred tax assets 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.9 Total Non-current assets 77.4 77.9 75.9 74.0 72.2 Revenue 285.6 299.7 312.4 325.7 339.4 PPE Gross Profit 115.7 113.2 123.0 132.5 142.3 EBITDA 68.9 61.8 65.7 69.0 EBIT 62.9 56.0 59.6 63.1 2016 2017 Reported PBT 66.3 59.4 62.6 66.2 68.1 Reported Profit 49.4 44.4 46.6 49.3 50.8 Inventories 22.8 24.9 24.8 25.9 27.0 Adj Net Profit 48.8 43.8 46.6 49.3 50.8 Receivables 38.7 40.5 42.3 44.1 45.9 Prepayments 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Basic EPS Adj EPS (sen) (sen) 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 Cash and equivalent 105.7 99.0 100.3 103.0 107.0 GDPS (sen) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Total Current assets 168.0 165.1 168.1 173.7 180.6 Total Assets 245.3 243.1 244.0 247.7 252.9 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 62.6 66.2 68.1 Payables 49.7 53.1 55.4 57.7 60.1 Taxation 5.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Dividend payable 0.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 55.3 73.2 75.5 77.8 80.3 CASH FLOW STATEMENT FYE Dec 31 (RMmn) PBT 66.3 59.4 Adjustments for: D&A Net interest Others 6.0 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.8 (0.1) (3.4) (3.0) (3.1) (3.2) (3.1) Op profit before WC 69.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.4 65.7 69.0 70.7 Total Current liabilities Deferred tax liabilities 7.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Total Non Current liabilities 7.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 80.0 Change in WC (1.6) (3.6) 0.6 (0.5) (0.5) Share capital 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Inventories (0.8) (5.2) 0.0 (1.1) (1.1) Retained earnings 103.1 83.5 82.2 83.5 86.3 Receivables (1.5) (1.9) (1.7) (1.8) (1.9) Total Equity 183.1 163.5 162.2 163.5 166.3 Prepayments (0.0) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 Total Equity and Liabilities 245.3 243.1 244.0 247.7 252.9 Tax (18.6) (17.0) (16.0) (16.9) (17.4) CFO 48.8 41.8 50.3 51.6 52.8 Acquisition & capex (19.2) (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 Payables RATIOS Interest income Others CFI 3.7 (12.1) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) (0.8) FYE Dec 31 (RMmn) 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 19.7 PER (x) 20.5 22.9 21.5 20.3 P/NTA (x) 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 Dividend yield (%) 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Dividend paid (48.0) (48.0) (48.0) (48.0) (48.0) ROE (%) 26.6 26.8 28.8 30.2 30.5 CFF (48.0) (48.0) (48.0) (48.0) (48.0) ROA (%) 19.9 18.0 19.1 19.9 20.1 EBIT margin (%) 22.0 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.1 Net margin (%) 17.1 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.0 Net change in cash (11.3) (7.2) 1.3 2.7 4.0 Stock Recommendation Guideline BUY : HOLD : SELL : Not Rated: Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point. Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by between 0-5%-point. Total return is lower than the required rate of return. The company is not under coverage. The report is for information only. Total Return is defined as expected share price appreciation plus gross dividend over the next 12 months. Gross dividend is excluded from total return if dividend discount model valuation is used to avoid double counting. Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. As of Thursday, May 03, 2018, the analyst, Damia Othman, who prepared this report, has interest in the following securities covered in this report: (a) nil This report has been prepared by TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD for purposes of Mid and Small Cap Research Scheme ("MidS") administered by Bursa Malaysia Berhad and will be compensated to undertake the scheme. TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD has produced this report independent of any influence from the MidS or the subject company. For more information about MidS and other research reports, please visit Bursa Malaysia’s website at: www.bursamids.com Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2031 6608 www.ta.com.my Page 3 of 3
16. RESULTS UPDATE Thursday , May 03, 2018 FBMKLCI: 1,852.03 Sector: Finance THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* TP: RM29.50 (+22.9%) Public Bank Berhad Last Traded: RM24.00 Results Within Expectations Li Hsia Wong Tel: +603-2167 9610 BUY liwong@ta.com.my Review PBB’s 1QFY18 results came within expectations. Registering steady growth, net profit climbed 12.6% YoY (-5.4% QoQ) to RM1,405.4mn, underpinned by strong income growth, positive JAWS and modest increase in loan allowances. PBB’s bottomline accounted for 24% of ours and consensus full year estimates respectively. ROE stood at 15.2% (FY17: 15.8%). Accounting for 24% of our full year forecast, total operating income broadened 6.6% YoY. Net interest income (NII) expanded at a decent pace of 4.0% YoY to RM1,897.4mn. Annualised domestic loans led growth in advances with a 5.0% YoY increase. Annualised loan growth for the entire group rose by 3.0%. PBB’s domestic loans market share stood at 17.8% (2017: 17.8%). Sequentially, net interest margin (NIM) widened by 6 bps, part of which was driven by the OPR hike. Yearly, NIM jumped to 2.33% from 2.31%, premised on stable loan yields and concerted efforts in managing the group’s funding position more efficiently, i.e. balancing between growth and rising cost of deposits. PBB’s annualised total and domestic deposits remained healthy with total and domestic deposit rising 8.3% and 10.2% respectively. PBB’s market share in the customer deposit space stood at 16.7%, slipping 10 bps from 16.8% in 2017. Liquidity buffers remain healthy with gross loan to fund ratio of around 89% (FY17: 90.0%). www.taonline.com.my Share Information Bloomberg Code PBK MK Stock Code 1295 Listing Main Market 3861.5 Share Cap (mn) 92,676.0 Market Cap (RMmn) 24.50/19.90 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 4637.0 12-mth Avg Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 57.9 Estimated Free Float (%) 0.73 Beta Major Shareholders (%) Consolidated Teh Holdings - 22.9 EPF - 13.9 Forecast Revision Forecast Revision (%) Net profit (RMmn) Consensus TA's / Consensus (%) Previous Rating Financial Indicators ROE (%) ROA (%) CTI Ratio (%) Gross NPL Ratio (%) BV/ Share (RM) Price/ BV (x) FY18 FY19 5918.4 6429.5 5829.0 6228.0 101.5 103.2 Hold (Downgraded) FY18 FY19 15.2 1.5 31.9 0.6 10.55 2.3 15.1 1.5 31.3 0.5 11.50 2.1 % of FY 24.0 24.0 Within Within PBK 0.8 4.3 20.6 19.6 FBM KLCI (1.0) (0.2) 7.8 4.9 Scorecard Non-interest income (non-NII) reversed gains in 4Q17, contracting 7.9% QoQ in 1Q18. Yearly, non-NII climbed 15.6% YoY to RM594.7mn. While PBB reported modest gains in fee and commission income (+4.6% YoY), demand for unit trust remained healthy. Rising 17.3% YoY in income, the increase was underpinned by higher Net Asset Value of Funds (NAV) under management, which widened to RM81.9bn (FY17: RM81.4bn). Annualized new premium (ANP) in the banca business stood at RM74.3mn (FY17: RM270.2mn). Strong gains in forex (+20.6% YoY) and stockbroking income (+19.5% YoY) also helped drive the resilient YoY growth in non-NII. By segment, PBT contribution from overseas operations slipped by 10.1% YoY. Overseas operations accounted for some 8% of the group’s PBT. Meanwhile, Treasury operations and Investment banking saw stronger PBT of +10.2% YoY and +13.6% YoY. Growths were also observed in the Fund management (+16.5% YoY) and Corporate lending (+5.9% YoY) segments. The HP segment remained weak as PBT slipped 1.9% YoY on the back of weaker TIV. Elsewhere, Retail operations (comprising individuals and SMEs), which accounts for 50% of total segment profits increased by 4.7%. vs. TA vs. Consensus Share Performance (%) Price Change 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth 12 mth (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI Source: Bloomberg Page 1 of 3
17. 3-May-18 Upholding healthy asset quality , total allowances for loans and other assets increased by only 2.6% YoY to RM69.3mn (1QFY17: RM67.5mn). This translates to a total credit cost ratio of 9 bps (2017: 7 bps). The gross impaired loans ratio (GIL) stayed pat at 0.5% (Dec 2017: 0.5%) while loan loss coverage jumped to 125.2% (Dec 2017: 95.5%). The GIL for all key segments namely residential financing (0.5%), transport vehicle financing (0.6%) and domestic SME financing (0.3%) were stable. As widely anticipated, allowance for impaired loans and financing were higher by 32% from the adoption of MFRS 9. Regulatory reserves were utilised to mitigate the higher impairment allowances. However, there were also gains reported on remeasurement of certain equity investments due to the implementation of this new accounting rule. This resulted in an overall increase in the shareholders’ funds and group’s capital adequacy ratio due to an increase in retained profits. PBB remains backed by solid capital position with Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital Ratio, Tier 1 Capital Ratio and Total Capital Ratio of 12.2%, 12.8% and 15.8% respectively. Impact No change to our earnings estimates. Outlook Management maintained modest FY18 targets. Albeit at a slight improvement, loan growth is guided to moderately increase by around 5% (vs. 3.6% in FY17). Management foresees stable and possibly better NIM on the back of more stable loan yields, managing COF via deposits (which management is targeting to grow by 5% in FY18). PBB is expected to continue its focus on collection in higher risk segments such as HP to maintain its resilient asset quality. Given that the bank is very much domestic and retail centric, downside risks in asset quality could stem from rising cost of living and a sharp increase in unemployment. All other KPI targets include to maintain GIL ratio <1% and ROE of between 14% and 15%. Valuation Rolling valuations forward to FY19, we raise PBB’s TP to RM29.50 from RM27.30. This values the stock at an implied FY19e PBV of 2.6x. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on PBB. Key upside/downside risks to PBB’s TP include: 1) stronger-than-expected contributions from operations overseas, 2) further spike in the sale of bancassurance and wealth management, 3) unexpected increase in unemployment rate resulting in high default rates among retail borrowers, and 4) potential outflow of foreign funds resulting in a sharp decline in the foreign shareholding level. Page 2 of 3
18. 3-May-18 Table 1 : Earnings Summary (RMmn) FYE Dec Net interest income Non-interest income Islamic Banking Total operating income Pre-provisioning profit Pretax profit Net profit EPS (sen) EPS growth (%) Gross div (sen) Div yield (%) FY16 6920.4 2094.4 941.6 9956.5 6745.0 6554.0 5206.9 123.6 2.9 58.0 2.4 FY17 7417.1 2331.0 998.7 10746.8 7318.6 7117.7 5470.0 129.9 5.6 61.0 2.5 FY18F 7824.2 2526.5 1058.6 11409.3 7767.4 7494.2 5918.4 140.5 8.2 63.0 2.6 FY19F 8325.4 2838.2 1143.3 12307.0 8459.1 8133.1 6429.5 152.7 8.6 65.0 2.7 FY20F 8973.7 3129.7 1234.8 13338.2 9221.4 8860.6 7011.6 166.5 9.1 65.0 2.7 Table 2: 1QFY18 Results Analysis (RMmn) YE 31 Dec 1QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 QoQ YoY FY17 FY18 YoY 1,824.2 1,887.6 1,897.4 0.5 4.0 1,824.2 1,897.4 4.0 business 247.7 252.9 265.7 5.1 7.3 247.7 265.7 7.3 Non interest income 514.5 646.1 594.7 (7.9) 15.6 514.5 594.7 15.6 Total income 2,586.4 2,786.6 2,757.9 (1.0) 6.6 2,586.4 2,757.9 6.6 Operating expenses (886.9) (813.7) (899.3) 10.5 1.4 (886.9) (899.3) 1.4 Operating profit 1,699.5 1,972.9 1,858.6 (5.8) 9.4 1,699.5 1,858.6 9.4 Loan impairment allowances (67.5) (15.8) (69.3) 338.7 2.6 (67.5) (69.3) 2.6 Profit from associates (0.5) 0.1 4.7 n.m. n.m. (0.5) 4.7 n.m. PBT 1,631.5 1,957.2 1,794.0 (8.3) 10.0 1,631.5 1,794.0 10.0 Net profit 1,248.0 1,485.5 1,405.4 (5.4) 12.6 1,248.0 1,405.4 12.6 EPS (sen) 32.3 38.5 36.4 (5.4) 12.6 32.3 36.4 12.6 Net interest income Income from Islamic Banking Stock Recommendation Guideline BUY : HOLD : SELL : Not Rated: Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point. Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by between 0-5%-point. Total return is lower than the required rate of return. The company is not under coverage. The report is for information only. Total Return is defined as expected share price appreciation plus gross dividend over the next 12 months. Gross dividend is excluded from total return if dividend discount model valuation is used to avoid double counting. Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. As of Thursday, May 03, 2018, the analyst, Wong Li Hsia, who prepared this report, has interest in the following securities covered in this report: (a) nil Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 3 of 3
19. ECONOMIC UPDATE Thursday , May 03, 2018 FBMKLCI: 1,852.03 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* US Economy Fed Keeps Rates, Higher Probability in June 2018 Farid Burhanuddin Shazma Juliana Abu Bakar Tel: +603-2167 9608 farid@ta.com.my shazma@ta.com.my www.taonline.com.my Fed Funds Rate Maintained at 1.50% to 1.75% • The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left its interest rates unchanged at between 1.50% and 1.75%. The decision was widely expected and within ours and market expectations. The Fed said that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate as the job market continued to strengthen, and the unemployment rate stayed low. The Committee also stated that household spending has moderated while businesses’ fixed investments continued to grow strongly from a strong fourth quarter. • On inflation, the Fed said that both inflation and core-inflation have moved close to the 2% target. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are of little changed, on balance. • Moreover, the Fed expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. • The Fed stated no clearer picture on their next move and whether it would deliver its second rate increase of the year when it meets in June 2018, noting that it will depend on the economy’s performance. Nonetheless, as economic prospect improves, including (1) the preferred inflation measures - the personalconsumption expenditures (PCE), which was up 2.0% YoY in March 2018 while core-PCE rose by 1.9% YoY; (2) jobless rate has steadily dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since 2000; and (3) better-than-expected economic growth of 2.3% YoY in 1Q18; most Fed officials project that the Fed would need to raise rates by at least twice more this year with faster inflation possibly triggering three additional moves. The assessment will also take into account measures of labour market conditions. Note that, hiring at private US employers grew more than expected, adding 204,000 workers in April 2018 with indications of better results for nonfarm payroll (NFP) numbers due this Friday. (NFP: Expectation (191,000) vs. March’s 103,000) • Markets are confident of seeing a rate hike in June 2018, when the Fed is scheduled to hold a news conference where it can provide more details on its decision. The probability of a rate hike in June 2018 is now increased to 96.7% (as compared to 92.4% before the Fed’s decision). • Despite the US interest rate hike and gradual monetary tightening going forward, we do not foresee any changes in Malaysia’s Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) this year. In fact, we do not see much pressures for Bank Negara Malaysia to change our accommodative monetary policy stance this year after the last hike in January 2018. This follows moderate inflationary pressures as indicated by soft consumer prices (YTD: 1.8% YoY), modest growth in real GDP, still capital inflows of RM2.0bn YTD18 and strong Ringgit against the USD. Maintain OPR at 3.25% for the rest of 2018. The next MPC meeting is 9 May 2018. Page 1 of 2
20. 3-May-18 Figure 1 : US Interest Rate Probability (as at 03 May 2018) Source: Bloomberg Figure 2: The Interest Rate Differential Between FDTR and OPR (2015 – May 2018) Source: Bloomberg, TA Securities Figure 3: Schedule of MPC and FOMC Meeting in 2018 No MPC Meeting FOMC Meeting 1 24 & 25 Jan 2018 30 & 31 Jan 2018* 2 6 & 7 March 2018 20 & 21 Mar 2018** 3 9 & 10 May 2018 1 & 2 May 2018 4 10 & 11 Jul 2018 12 & 13 Jun 2018** 5 4 & 5 Sep 2018 31 Jul & 1 Aug 2018 6 7 & 8 Nov 2018 25 & 26 Sep 2018** 7 7 & 8 Nov 2018 8 18 & 19 Dec 2018** Source: Federal Reserves ** Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia www.ta.com.my Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 Page 2 of 2
21. Thursday , 03 May, 2018 TA RESEARCH’S ‘DAILY COMPILED REPORTS’ For Internal Circulation Only L oc al Te ch n ic al R ep o r ts 1. D ai l y Te ch n ic a l St o ck s W at ch 2. D ai l y Mon e y F low of T e ch n i c a l St o ck W at ch 3. D ai l y Mon e y F low of FB MK L CI 4. D ai l y S t o c k S c r e e n Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my
22. Technical View Thursday , May 03, 2018 S REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Daily Technical Stock Watch Malaysia FBM KLCI: 1,852.03 (-18.34, -0.98%) Chartist: Stephen Soo Name F BMKLCI AF F IN ABMB AMBANK AXIATA CIMB DIGI GAMUDA GE NTING GE NM IHH IOICOR P MALAKOF F MAXIS MAYBANK MBS B R HBBANK S IME TE NAGA TM WP R TS AIR AS IA AIR AS IA X AR MADA DIALOG DNE X E CO WOR LD E KOVE S T F GV GADANG HIAP TE CK HIBIS CUS KUB MALTON MUDAJ AYA MR CB S AP UR A E NE R GY S UNCON UE MS UMWOG WAS E ONG WCT Close 2/May 1852.03 2.53 4.18 3.80 5.18 7.04 4.56 5.11 8.76 5.00 6.00 4.79 0.90 5.62 10.66 1.14 5.22 2.61 15.84 5.34 3.30 3.83 0.39 0.83 3.06 0.39 1.19 0.82 1.68 0.82 0.38 0.80 0.40 0.82 0.64 1.01 0.71 2.22 0.93 0.28 1.39 1.24 Tel: +603-2167 9607 Change High Low (18.34) 1,860.82 1,842.56 0.01 -0.17 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 -0.07 -0.03 -0.17 -0.13 -0.08 0.00 -0.01 -0.21 -0.12 -0.01 -0.08 -0.06 0.00 0.04 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.04 -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.01 -0.02 -0.02 0.07 -0.03 0.00 0.01 -0.03 0.01 2.53 4.32 3.90 5.31 7.17 4.63 5.16 8.93 5.12 6.04 4.79 0.90 5.80 10.80 1.15 5.27 2.65 15.88 5.39 3.34 3.88 0.39 0.84 3.08 0.40 1.19 0.82 1.71 0.82 0.38 0.80 0.40 0.82 0.65 1.03 0.71 2.26 0.93 0.29 1.40 1.25 2.51 4.18 3.76 5.12 6.92 4.51 5.06 8.72 5.00 5.88 4.68 0.89 5.55 10.62 1.13 5.15 2.53 15.80 5.10 3.22 3.76 0.38 0.81 3.01 0.38 1.15 0.80 1.67 0.81 0.37 0.74 0.39 0.80 0.63 0.99 0.62 2.20 0.91 0.26 1.36 1.20 Bollinger Bands Lower Mid Upper 1,825.45 1,863.39 1,901.33 2.20 4.15 3.64 5.18 6.96 4.39 4.95 8.63 4.71 5.98 4.69 0.86 5.54 10.37 1.06 5.14 2.49 15.74 5.01 3.29 3.68 0.35 0.77 2.95 0.34 0.99 0.77 1.61 0.79 0.36 0.70 0.38 0.76 0.61 0.91 0.46 1.95 0.88 0.24 1.28 1.13 2.39 4.32 3.86 5.34 7.18 4.53 5.10 8.88 5.01 6.07 4.76 0.89 5.78 10.59 1.13 5.30 2.70 15.87 5.36 3.41 3.90 0.38 0.85 3.08 0.38 1.09 0.85 1.76 0.85 0.40 0.83 0.41 0.81 0.68 1.00 0.65 2.14 0.94 0.28 1.41 1.20 2.57 4.48 4.07 5.50 7.40 4.68 5.24 9.13 5.31 6.16 4.83 0.92 6.02 10.80 1.20 5.47 2.90 16.00 5.72 3.52 4.11 0.41 0.92 3.21 0.42 1.18 0.93 1.91 0.92 0.43 0.96 0.45 0.86 0.74 1.10 0.85 2.32 0.99 0.33 1.53 1.26 RSI 14d 52.98 65.38 52.80 48.95 45.03 50.24 53.71 54.32 52.30 53.65 51.74 57.59 55.83 51.42 65.49 53.09 49.13 48.96 48.55 45.39 41.94 45.65 50.17 48.75 55.42 51.88 63.00 38.43 42.90 32.35 39.94 38.26 36.50 46.22 40.48 53.60 48.82 58.70 43.10 42.31 47.78 48.29 stsoo@ta.com.my Moving Averages 10d 30d 50d 1,872.65 1,863.02 1,859.20 2.47 4.35 3.85 5.36 7.25 4.57 5.11 8.87 5.07 6.08 4.78 0.90 5.83 10.67 1.14 5.35 2.70 15.89 5.36 3.39 3.81 0.39 0.84 3.08 0.39 1.12 0.83 1.74 0.84 0.39 0.84 0.41 0.81 0.67 1.02 0.71 2.17 0.92 0.28 1.42 1.20 2.37 4.30 3.91 5.38 7.19 4.57 5.10 8.88 5.02 6.06 4.76 0.89 5.79 10.55 1.12 5.30 2.67 15.88 5.36 3.46 3.96 0.38 0.84 3.02 0.39 1.06 0.89 1.75 0.87 0.41 0.83 0.42 0.82 0.69 1.00 0.61 2.12 0.96 0.29 1.44 1.23 2.39 4.24 4.04 5.41 7.20 4.65 5.07 8.90 5.09 6.06 4.72 0.89 5.83 10.48 1.15 5.32 2.67 15.79 5.53 3.52 4.09 0.39 0.85 2.89 0.41 1.13 0.93 1.81 0.93 0.44 0.87 0.45 0.86 0.75 1.02 0.60 2.18 0.99 0.30 1.50 1.33 www.taonline.com.my DMI DI + 23.45 31.25 17.19 21.57 10.45 17.71 23.43 22.89 16.27 25.42 9.40 11.06 18.52 12.59 26.94 23.01 19.02 18.15 16.80 19.84 20.93 23.31 22.09 22.61 22.59 24.67 24.94 15.99 18.36 13.26 15.07 18.22 19.77 22.00 18.57 21.90 23.61 27.33 14.70 17.32 18.40 21.38 DI 25.60 16.64 17.20 25.25 23.63 26.55 14.10 16.12 21.89 19.50 16.65 19.20 11.97 16.30 16.02 16.87 20.24 27.44 17.21 23.78 20.17 23.81 19.94 25.79 20.50 24.54 15.39 26.92 16.28 30.14 29.06 32.07 31.69 22.99 40.73 21.25 26.01 18.39 27.36 26.38 25.27 21.71 ADX 13.62 28.85 18.25 28.72 25.89 25.45 22.18 11.63 28.50 18.66 14.62 20.07 15.38 20.14 19.09 16.52 15.27 20.44 12.05 15.62 21.95 31.45 13.50 16.49 23.24 18.38 28.98 22.15 20.84 32.69 27.83 15.98 15.46 11.34 29.29 12.74 21.09 19.01 40.20 15.57 20.19 26.59 Diff (2.15) 14.61 (0.01) (3.68) (13.18) (8.83) 9.33 6.76 (5.61) 5.91 (7.25) (8.14) 6.55 (3.71) 10.92 6.14 (1.22) (9.29) (0.40) (3.94) 0.77 (0.49) 2.15 (3.18) 2.09 0.13 9.55 (10.94) 2.09 (16.88) (13.99) (13.85) (11.92) (0.99) (22.16) 0.65 (2.40) 8.94 (12.67) (9.06) (6.87) (0.33) Line 3.09 0.04 0.02 -0.06 -0.03 0.02 -0.02 0.01 -0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.06 -0.04 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.05 -0.01 0.01 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 MACD Signal 4.75 0.02 0.03 -0.06 -0.02 0.02 -0.03 0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 -0.05 -0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.07 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 Diff (1.66) DMI MACD Recent Signal SELL SELL DMI MACD Signal Change - 0.02 (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) (0.00) 0.02 (0.00) (0.01) 0.01 (0.00) (0.00) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 (0.00) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.02) 0.00 0.01 (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.01) 0.01 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 0.02 BUY SELL SELL SELL SELL BUY BUY SELL BUY SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY BUY SELL SELL SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY SELL BUY SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY SELL SELL SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY BUY SELL BUY SELL BUY SELL BUY SELL SELL BUY SELL SELL BUY SELL SELL BUY BUY BUY BUY SELL SELL SELL SELL BUY BUY BUY SELL SELL BUY BUY SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL BUY BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY SELL BUY BUY BUY - The table above is a compilation of actively traded stocks with some popular technical indicators. The technical BUY/SELL signals on the last four columns are auto generated; the first two being existing or recent signals while the last two represent a signal change from BUY to SELL or the reverse, otherwise no change is indicated by a dash. INTERPRETATION OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS: Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods. As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. Buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price touches the upper band. Momentum traders tend to buy on price breakouts above the upper band, and sell when price breaks down below the lower band. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the 30-day moving average should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day average is bearish and imply further near-term downside risk. Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share price stays above the 30-day average, and negative if it remains below. A longer-term uptrend is intact if share price sustain above the 50-day average, and is deemed broken if it breaches below this level. Directional Movement Indicator (DMI): The DMI is an indicator of trend strength. A positive DMI difference (DMI diff) value is bullish and indicate a higher DI+ vs. DI-, while a negative DMI diff is bearish due to a lower DI+ vs. DI- (DMI diff = DI+ minus DI-). A crossover of DI+ above DI- triggers a BUY signal, while a SELL signal is flashed when the DI+ crosses below the DI-. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) indicates the strength of a trend, whether it is up or down. The higher the value of ADX, the stronger the trend. An ADX value above 25 suggests a trending market or stock, while a value below 20 signal congestion or absence of trend. Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD diff value is derived from the difference between the MACD line (the 12-day EMA minus the 26-day EMA) and the MACD signal line (the 9-day EMA of the MACD). A positive MACD diff value is bullish, while a negative MACD diff is bearish. A BUY signal is generated when the MACD diff rises above zero, and SELL signal sparked when the MACD diff value falls below zero. Technical Comments: Buy on Weakness KUB & Malton Bearish momentum could force KUB shares down towards the low of 06/12/16 (RM0.36) before attracting buyers again, while a rebound would meet initial resistance at 38.2%FR (RM0.43), and then 50%FR (RM0.47). Better support is at the low of 28/11/16 (RM0.32). Likewise, Malton Berhad could sell-off below the lower Bollinger band (RM0.76) before buying support Page 1 of 4
23. 3-May-18 return , while a recovery would encounter resistance from 23.6%FR (RM0.95) and 38.2%FR (RM1.14), going forward. KUB MALAYSIA RM0.395 (UNCH) Z BOLLINGER BANDS Upper Middle Lower RM RM RM SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 0.45 0.41 0.38 10-day 30-day 50-day RM RM RM DAILY MACD DMI Recent Signal SELL Signal Change Recent Signal SELL Signal Change MALTON RM0.81 (UNCH) BOLLINGER BANDS Upper Middle Lower RM RM RM SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES 0.86 0.81 0.76 10-day 30-day 50-day BUY Recent Signal Signal Change DMI Recent Signal Signal Change 0.41 0.42 0.45 RM RM RM DAILY MACD 0.81 0.82 0.86 SELL Page 2 of 4
24. 3-May-18 Daily Money Flow of Technical Stock Watch Malaysia Chartist : Stephen Soo No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 39 40 41 Name Tel: +603-2167 9607 Total Money Flow (RM'mn) stsoo@ta.com.my (A) Total 5D MF Prv. Chg www.taonline.com.my (B) Cur. Chg CLOSING PRICE 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 30-Apr Chg (A+B) DMF 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 30-Apr FBMKLCI (17.1) (2.8) 29.7 9.4 9.9 29.1 (20.3) 0.6 1,865 1,852 1,852 1,863 1,870 6.90 OUT AFFIN ABMB AMBANK AXIATA CIMB DIGI GAMUDA GENTING GENM IHH IOICORP MALAKOFF MAXIS MAYBANK MBSB RHBBANK SIME TENAGA TM WPRTS AIRASIA AIRASIA X ARMADA DIALOG DNEX ECO WORLD EKOVEST FGV GADANG HIAP TECK HIBISCUS KUB MALTON MUDAJAYA MRCB SAPURA ENERGY SUNCON UEMS UMWOG WASEONG WCT 0.2 0.1 (0.7) (0.0) (1.1) (0.8) 3.2 (5.2) 0.3 (1.3) (1.1) (0.1) (0.0) 4.3 (0.2) (1.3) 0.6 0.7 (0.5) 0.1 (0.4) 0.2 0.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) (1.0) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 (0.2) (0.6) 0.3 (0.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 (1.7) (1.5) (1.3) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 (0.0) (0.1) 1.3 (0.1) (0.2) (1.2) 4.9 (0.3) (0.3) (1.6) 0.1 0.4 (1.8) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 (0.2) (1.0) (0.0) (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) (0.2) 0.0 0.1 (0.4) (0.2) (0.0) (0.3) (2.7) 5.1 (0.2) (1.4) 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 (0.1) (0.2) 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 (0.3) 0.4 2.1 (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) 0.2 (0.0) 0.4 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) 1.1 (3.9) 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 (0.7) 2.3 0.0 (0.7) 6.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.8) (2.4) (0.1) 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 (1.6) (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) (0.4) 0.0 (0.0) (0.4) 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.7) 0.1 2.2 (0.0) (0.6) (1.1) 0.9 (0.5) (2.2) (0.1) (0.2) 2.5 (0.2) (0.1) (1.1) 19.3 0.3 (0.0) (0.3) (0.0) 0.1 (0.5) (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.4) 0.0 (0.0) (0.5) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.4 (0.0) (0.3) 0.3 (0.1) (2.8) (0.7) (4.3) (2.4) 0.3 0.6 1.1 (3.7) (0.5) (0.1) (1.0) 17.4 (0.6) (1.8) (2.1) 23.7 (0.6) 0.3 (1.6) (0.0) 1.3 (0.3) (0.1) 0.0 (0.4) (1.3) (0.1) (0.1) (1.9) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (1.2) (2.3) 0.5 (0.2) 1.0 0.0 (0.9) (0.0) (0.2) 0.3 1.4 (3.9) 0.3 2.9 (3.6) 0.2 0.7 2.1 0.0 (0.7) 2.8 0.0 0.1 (1.2) (3.6) (0.1) 0.2 0.4 0.4 (0.4) (3.7) 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 0.3 (0.2) 0.0 (0.4) (0.0) 0.2 0.0 0.1 (1.5) (1.0) 6.1 (0.0) (0.8) (2.6) 0.9 0.3 (4.5) (0.1) 0.5 (3.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) 21.7 0.3 (0.4) (0.8) (0.1) 0.1 1.1 (0.1) (0.0) 0.2 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) (0.2) 2.55 4.25 3.80 5.33 7.22 4.45 5.04 8.75 5.02 6.09 4.78 0.90 5.82 10.62 1.12 5.30 2.68 15.88 5.24 3.36 3.77 0.38 0.83 3.05 0.38 1.12 0.82 1.70 0.82 0.38 0.83 0.40 0.79 0.66 1.00 0.71 2.11 0.91 0.28 1.44 1.24 2.56 4.19 3.78 5.30 7.17 4.49 5.08 8.75 4.88 6.05 4.75 0.89 5.82 10.58 1.10 5.27 2.57 15.84 5.23 3.33 3.69 0.38 0.81 3.00 0.37 1.13 0.80 1.70 0.81 0.38 0.80 0.40 0.78 0.65 1.00 0.67 2.16 0.89 0.27 1.42 1.17 2.52 4.32 3.73 5.16 7.20 4.57 5.12 8.66 4.93 6.06 4.77 0.90 5.80 10.68 1.10 5.31 2.55 15.84 5.20 3.39 3.74 0.38 0.83 2.99 0.37 1.13 0.81 1.71 0.81 0.38 0.80 0.40 0.79 0.64 1.00 0.68 2.12 0.91 0.28 1.40 1.22 2.50 4.35 3.78 5.30 7.25 4.63 5.13 8.79 5.03 6.07 4.79 0.90 5.81 10.76 1.12 5.35 2.57 15.86 5.28 3.40 3.97 0.38 0.84 3.10 0.38 1.13 0.81 1.73 0.81 0.38 0.80 0.40 0.82 0.66 1.00 0.68 2.12 0.91 0.28 1.39 1.26 2.52 4.35 3.90 5.30 7.20 4.63 5.14 8.93 5.13 6.08 4.79 0.91 5.83 10.78 1.15 5.30 2.67 15.84 5.30 3.34 3.85 0.39 0.84 3.08 0.40 1.15 0.82 1.71 0.82 0.38 0.76 0.40 0.81 0.66 1.03 0.64 2.25 0.93 0.27 1.42 1.23 0.02 0.00 0.12 0.00 (0.05) 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 (0.05) 0.10 (0.02) 0.02 (0.06) (0.12) 0.01 0.01 (0.02) 0.03 0.02 0.01 (0.02) 0.00 0.01 (0.04) (0.01) (0.00) 0.00 0.03 (0.04) 0.13 0.02 (0.01) 0.03 (0.03) OUT OUT OUT IN IN IN IN OUT IN IN OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT IN OUT IN IN OUT OUT IN OUT OUT OUT IN IN OUT OUT OUT OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT Sources: Bloomberg, TA Securities Daily Money Flow (DMF) Formulation If previous change (A) + current change (B) > 0, then DMF = “IN”; AND if (A) + (B) < 0, then DMF = “OUT”. Money Flow (MF) Calculation The value of money flow is set to zero at the start of the trading day. When a trade is performed, its price is compared to the price of the previous trade (the first trade of the day is compared to the previous day's close). If the prices differ, the money associated with the trade (price times number of shares) is added to or subtracted from the money flow. Additions (inflows, buys) are done on upticks; subtractions (outflows, sells) are done on downticks. Daily Money Flow (DMF) Interpretation In general, money flow trends confirm price trends. As prices rise, money flows are usually positive. As prices fall, money flows are usually negative. A divergence, however, between money flow and price trend can be a signal of a future price trend change. For example, a falling stock price with a positive money flow (IN) can indicate a future rally in the price of the stock. Conversely, a rising stock price with a negative money flow (OUT) implies potential correction in the stock price. Page 3 of 4
25. 3-May-18 Daily Money Flow of FBMKLCI Malaysia Chartist : Stephen Soo No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Name FBMKLCI MAYBANK PBBANK TENAGA CIMB PCHEM IHH AXIATA MAXIS HLBANK SIME PLT DIGI NESTLE PETGAS GENTING MISC IOI CORP GENM KLK PETDAG HAP SENG HLFG PPB TM RHBBANK PMETAL SIME YTLCORP KLCCS AMBANK ASTRO (RM'mn) INF LOW OUTF LOW NET FLOW 24-Apr (17.1) 4.3 1.9 0.7 (1.1) (3.7) (1.3) (0.0) (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) (0.8) 2.7 0.0 (5.2) (1.0) (1.1) 0.3 (12.6) 0.6 (0.0) 0.4 0.5 (0.5) (1.3) 0.7 0.6 (0.2) 0.0 (0.7) (0.1) Tel: +603-2167 9607 Total Money Flow (RM'mn) 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr (2.8) 29.7 9.4 1.3 3.3 6.1 7.0 20.4 1.2 4.9 1.2 (2.4) (1.5) (0.0) (3.9) (7.5) (3.3) (1.3) (0.7) 1.1 (0.7) (0.4) 0.2 0.0 8.1 0.2 1.6 0.2 2.3 0.0 (0.4) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.4) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.8) (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) 30-Apr 9.9 2.5 (6.4) 19.3 2.2 0.9 (0.5) 0.1 (0.2) (1.0) (0.2) (0.0) 1.0 (0.8) (1.1) (1.2) (2.2) 0.9 0.5 (0.4) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) 0.3 (0.1) (0.1) (1.1) (0.6) (0.2) (1.7) 0.3 Total 5D MF 29.1 17.4 24.0 23.7 (4.3) (14.8) (3.7) (0.7) (1.0) (3.0) (0.1) (2.4) 10.3 4.3 0.6 (1.8) (0.5) 1.1 (13.6) 1.6 (0.1) 0.4 0.1 (0.6) (1.8) 0.4 (2.1) (1.0) (0.1) (2.8) (0.4) 0.1 (1.7) (0.1) (1.5) 0.3 (1.3) (0.8) (0.1) 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 (1.5) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (0.2) 0.3 (1.2) (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 (0.2) (1.4) (0.2) 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.7) 5.0 5.1 0.1 0.2 (0.2) 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) 0.4 (0.1) 0.1 (0.4) (0.3) 12.7 15.2 37.3 21.0 27.9 114.1 (29.8) (17.1) (18.0) (2.8) (7.6) 29.7 (11.7) 9.4 (17.9) 9.9 (85.1) 29.0 stsoo@ta.com.my (A) (B) Prv. Chg Cur. Chg (20.3) 0.6 2.8 (3.6) (19.2) (7.6) (3.6) 21.7 (3.9) 6.1 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.3 1.4 (1.0) (0.7) 0.5 (0.2) (0.6) 0.5 (0.4) 0.3 (0.0) 8.8 (7.2) (4.7) (1.0) (3.6) (2.6) 0.2 (1.4) 2.1 (4.5) 0.2 0.9 (0.7) 0.9 (0.9) (0.4) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) 0.0 (0.6) 0.1 (0.1) 0.3 0.1 (0.1) (0.1) 0.3 (1.2) (0.3) 0.0 (0.5) (0.1) (0.2) 0.3 (1.5) 0.2 0.3 24-Apr 1,865 10.62 24.10 15.88 7.22 8.49 25-Apr 1,852 10.58 23.84 15.84 7.17 8.39 6.09 5.33 5.82 19.08 5.54 4.45 147.50 17.96 8.75 7.00 4.78 5.02 25.50 27.00 9.70 19.46 19.10 5.24 5.30 4.79 2.68 1.42 7.20 3.80 1.84 6.05 5.30 5.82 18.84 5.50 4.49 139.10 17.94 8.75 7.08 4.75 4.88 25.48 27.00 9.71 19.30 19.18 5.23 5.27 4.74 2.57 1.39 7.02 3.78 1.79 OUTFLOW 13 (17) 15 (15) 16 (14) 12 (18) CLOSING PRICE 26-Apr 27-Apr 1,852 1,863 10.68 10.76 23.72 23.60 15.84 15.86 7.20 7.25 8.41 8.47 6.06 5.16 5.80 18.88 5.56 4.57 136.50 18.00 8.66 7.01 4.77 4.93 25.50 26.96 9.73 19.36 19.20 5.20 5.31 4.71 2.55 1.40 7.21 3.73 1.81 6.07 5.30 5.81 18.86 5.56 4.63 138.40 17.98 8.79 7.10 4.79 5.03 25.52 26.96 9.78 19.36 19.24 5.28 5.35 4.80 2.57 1.43 7.39 3.78 1.85 30-Apr 1,870 10.78 23.80 15.84 7.20 8.45 6.08 5.30 5.83 19.00 5.57 4.63 138.00 17.82 8.93 7.16 4.79 5.13 25.48 27.00 9.80 19.48 19.24 5.30 5.30 4.83 2.67 1.45 7.78 3.90 1.91 Chg 6.90 0.02 0.20 (0.02) (0.05) (0.02) 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.01 0.00 (0.40) (0.16) 0.14 0.06 0.00 0.10 (0.04) 0.04 0.02 0.12 0.00 0.02 (0.05) 0.03 0.10 0.02 0.39 0.12 0.06 (A+B) DMF OUT OUT OUT IN IN IN IN IN OUT OUT IN IN IN OUT OUT OUT OUT IN IN OUT OUT OUT OUT IN IN IN OUT OUT OUT OUT IN Daily Trading Participation COMPANIES INFLOW www.taonline.com.my 10 (20) Date Retail Ins titution Foreign Total 24-Apr 18.4% 56.8% 24.8% 100% 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 30-Apr 18.7% 17.1% 16.0% 18.1% 57.9% 55.4% 51.0% 50.1% 23.4% 27.5% 33.0% 31.8% 100% 100% 100% 100% Sources: Bloomberg, TA Securities Daily Money Flow (DMF) Formulation If previous change (A) + current change (B) > 0, then DMF = “IN”; AND if (A) + (B) < 0, then DMF = “OUT”. Money Flow (MF) Calculation The value of money flow is set to zero at the start of the trading day. When a trade is performed, its price is compared to the price of the previous trade (the first trade of the day is compared to the previous day's close). If the prices differ, the money associated with the trade (price times number of shares) is added to or subtracted from the money flow. Additions (inflows, buys) are done on upticks; subtractions (outflows, sells) are done on downticks. Daily Money Flow (DMF) Interpretation In general, money flow trends confirm price trends. As prices rise, money flows are usually positive. As prices fall, money flows are usually negative. A divergence, however, between money flow and price trend can be a signal of a future price trend change. For example, a falling stock price with a positive money flow (IN) can indicate a future rally in the price of the stock. Conversely, a rising stock price with a negative money flow (OUT) implies potential correction in the stock price. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. As of Thursday, May 03, 2018, the chartist, Stephen Soo, who prepared this report, has interest in the following securities covered in this report: (a) nil Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 4 of 4
26. Technical View Thursday , May 03, 2018 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Daily Stock Screen Malaysia End Day Census of 02.05.2018 Chartist: Stephen Soo Tel: +603-2167 9607 stsoo@ta.com.my www.taonline.com.my Report Description: The Daily Stock Screen is a retail product which can be a very useful guide for momentum trading and trading ideas. The following list is derived from the screening of more than 1000 stocks currently listed on Bursa Malaysia to identify: the top 20 breakout, 20 breakdown, and 30 ‘potential’ breakout stocks which just climbed above the middle Bollinger band, with potential to appreciate toward the upper Bollinger band. [MIDDLE BOLLINGER RANGEBOUND] List of 30 Potential Breakout Stocks (Short-term BUY for upside toward Upper Bollinger Band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/ SELL) No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Stock Name PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD FAR EAST HOLDINGS BHD FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BHD PETRONAS GAS BHD PPB GROUP BERHAD CAHYA MATA SARAWAK BHD AEON CO (M) BHD MALAYAN BANKING BHD YINSON HOLDINGS BHD SUPERMAX CORP BHD CCM DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD KLCCP STAPLED GROUP IMASPRO CORP BHD GHL SYSTEMS BERHAD MERCURY INDUSTRIES BHD TRANSOCEAN HOLDINGS BHD ORIENTAL HOLDINGS BERHAD CCK CONSOLIDATED HOLDINGS BH ENCORP BHD AMWAY MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BHD ICAPITAL.BIZ BERHAD MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD MUDA HOLDINGS BERHAD SAM ENGINEERING & EQUIPMENT ASDION BHD UMS-NEIKEN GROUP BHD UPA CORP BHD MRCB-QUILL REIT LEE SWEE KIAT GROUP BHD Price 26.74 11.10 35.88 20.86 18.20 19.08 4.20 2.02 10.66 4.04 2.93 2.89 7.49 2.09 1.32 1.46 0.62 6.26 1.45 0.69 7.63 2.65 2.09 2.28 6.88 0.47 0.99 2.50 1.12 0.73 Bollinger Band Lower Middle Upper 24.21 26.25 28.28 8.36 10.07 11.78 31.48 33.97 36.47 20.18 20.75 21.31 17.67 18.14 18.61 18.28 18.86 19.43 3.66 4.04 4.41 1.76 1.96 2.17 10.38 10.59 10.80 3.81 4.00 4.18 2.35 2.71 3.06 2.66 2.84 3.02 6.86 7.24 7.62 1.75 1.98 2.21 1.09 1.25 1.42 1.14 1.35 1.55 0.45 0.58 0.70 6.10 6.22 6.34 1.29 1.40 1.51 0.42 0.59 0.75 7.43 7.56 7.69 2.41 2.56 2.71 1.87 2.01 2.14 1.65 1.99 2.33 5.90 6.41 6.93 0.14 0.33 0.52 0.83 0.93 1.03 2.38 2.46 2.54 0.98 1.07 1.16 0.55 0.65 0.76 RSI 14-day 61.97 72.10 82.16 51.19 53.57 59.88 57.49 63.08 55.54 53.59 61.62 53.90 55.53 82.00 57.94 51.48 52.08 51.37 62.77 64.59 55.69 54.35 57.23 65.40 68.11 83.65 52.62 54.43 65.29 59.63 5-day 26.98 11.06 35.52 20.52 17.94 19.19 4.05 2.03 10.68 3.95 2.83 2.86 7.32 2.10 1.28 1.40 0.53 6.23 1.46 0.70 7.60 2.60 2.00 2.09 6.63 0.42 0.93 2.48 1.11 0.72 Moving Average 10-day 30-day 27.14 25.69 10.69 9.66 34.77 33.56 20.77 20.75 18.22 18.05 19.04 18.90 4.09 4.01 2.02 1.90 10.67 10.55 4.01 3.95 2.83 2.66 2.88 2.83 7.32 7.15 2.08 1.92 1.28 1.21 1.32 1.46 0.56 0.61 6.23 6.24 1.44 1.37 0.64 0.57 7.59 7.57 2.60 2.58 2.00 2.02 2.11 1.95 6.55 6.41 0.40 0.28 0.91 0.97 2.48 2.46 1.11 1.05 0.68 0.63 50-day 25.43 9.35 32.53 21.03 17.91 18.56 4.10 1.81 10.48 4.02 2.66 2.85 7.40 1.88 1.29 1.64 0.60 6.31 1.33 0.60 7.55 2.63 2.09 1.94 6.62 0.25 1.03 2.47 1.07 0.64 Vol 838,600 9,100 700,800 219,800 1,033,300 729,400 708,000 2,741,000 18,789,600 961,100 3,751,200 355,800 399,700 1,215,000 437,700 8,200 12,200 177,400 1,304,500 95,200 13,400 171,600 817,500 2,454,500 30,800 17,349,800 8,000 11,800 1,095,500 6,303,000 20-day avg vol 700,925 6,835 622,175 77,360 552,895 849,995 814,065 2,128,120 15,461,230 655,655 4,274,860 369,820 374,060 74,075 437,825 5,725 1,615 145,025 960,185 61,105 7,490 33,570 421,470 1,497,980 24,415 10,880,600 9,405 4,065 814,385 1,567,920 Raw data sourced from Bloomberg *Note: To qualify in this list above, the first sorting criteria is stock price must have just climbed or stayed ABOVE the middle Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly strong. This is a good watch list for momentum traders looking for short-term BUY ideas, as they are laggards with good upside potential towards the upper Bollinger band or higher to TAKE PROFIT/SELL. Caveat: Some stocks may continue to stay range bound and trade sideways, hence traders should refer to their respective charts to spot accumulation (volume growth) or breakout patterns. INTERPRETATION OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS: Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share price stays above the 30-day, and negative if it remains below this average. 14-day RSI: A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding share price surge above the 30-day SMA should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day SMA is bearish and imply further near-term downside risk. Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods. As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when share price touches the lower band and exit when price touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. Buy when price touches the middle band and sell when price touches the upper band. Momentum traders will buy on price breaks above the upper band, and sell when price breaks below the lower band. Alternatively, a sharp move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band, a useful observation when projecting price targets. *Note: To qualify in the breakout list below, the first sorting criteria is stock price must close ABOVE the upper Bollinger Band, followed by a second criteria that trading volume for the day must be significantly higher than the 20-day average volume, which signal a bullish breakout. Caveat: We would caution momentum traders that a highly overbought 14-day RSI reading (> 80) and share price pullback BELOW the upper Bollinger Band are early warning signals to exit buy breakout trades. Page 1 of 2
27. [UPPER BOLLINGER BREAKOUT] Top 20 Breakout Stocks (Generally BULLISH, but can be short-term TAKE PROFIT/ SELL guide) No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Stock Name Price MSM MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BHD UOA DEVELOPMENT BHD QL RESOURCES BHD SYARIKAT TAKAFUL MALAYSIA HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES BHD SINOTOP HOLDING BHD BERJ AYA LAND BHD OPCOM HOLDINGS BHD MENTIGA CORP BHD PERUSAHAAN SADUR TIMAH MALAY WIDETECH (MALAYSIA) BHD 7-ELEVEN MALAYSIA HOLDINGS B HLT GLOBAL BHD AE MULTI HOLDINGS BHD SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVESTMEN ENG KAH CORP BHD SEALINK INTERNATIONAL BHD SYSTECH BHD TALAM TRANSFORM BHD GPA HOLDINGS BHD 3.99 2.65 5.31 3.59 11.22 0.56 0.34 0.41 0.70 3.85 0.63 1.53 0.28 0.15 1.68 1.39 0.15 0.25 0.04 0.09 Bollinger Band Lower 3.24 2.31 4.98 3.23 10.59 0.37 0.23 0.32 0.51 3.44 0.52 1.48 0.22 0.12 1.50 0.98 0.13 0.21 0.03 0.09 Middle 3.56 2.43 5.12 3.39 10.88 0.45 0.28 0.35 0.60 3.64 0.57 1.50 0.24 0.14 1.59 1.18 0.14 0.23 0.04 0.09 Upper 3.88 2.55 5.26 3.54 11.18 0.53 0.32 0.39 0.68 3.84 0.62 1.53 0.27 0.15 1.68 1.39 0.15 0.25 0.04 0.09 RSI 14-day 70.44 72.39 70.80 67.17 61.19 62.32 72.32 65.41 68.42 66.57 61.50 60.78 67.80 65.44 61.50 66.43 57.31 56.53 61.50 44.07 Moving Average 5-day 3.68 2.44 5.14 3.39 10.83 0.44 0.29 0.36 0.60 3.76 0.58 1.50 0.26 0.14 1.61 1.24 0.14 0.22 0.04 0.09 10-day 3.56 2.44 5.12 3.37 10.88 0.46 0.28 0.36 0.58 3.68 0.57 1.50 0.25 0.14 1.60 1.15 0.14 0.23 0.04 0.09 30-day 3.62 2.43 5.07 3.35 10.89 0.46 0.28 0.36 0.59 3.61 0.55 1.50 0.24 0.13 1.58 1.23 0.14 0.24 0.04 0.09 50-day 3.79 2.47 5.01 3.39 11.01 0.49 0.29 0.37 0.61 3.62 0.51 1.50 0.24 0.14 1.62 1.29 0.14 0.26 0.04 0.09 Vol 20-day avg vol 100 601,300 543,700 303,200 242,400 1,800 5,236,800 837,300 100 8,000 19,200 372,300 382,900 958,800 1,341,600 200 10,100 202,200 250,200 18,000 6,515 485,140 1,109,370 85,505 19,870 57,070 1,698,870 287,345 4,080 8,930 960 101,585 364,290 247,050 1,218,885 100 44,235 340,380 1,232,955 525,020 Raw data sourced from Bloomberg *Note: As for the top 20 breakdown list below, the sole sorting criteria is stock price must close significantly BELOW the lower Bollinger Band, with the largest distance from the lower band at the top of the table, signaling a severe sell-off which is bearish. Caveat: A stock should bottom out if share price moves ABOVE the falling lower Bollinger Band, which can be a good buy signal for technical rebound upside after the sharp sell-off. [LOWER BOLLINGER BREAKDOWN] Top 20 Breakdown Stocks (Generally BEARISH, but can be short-term BUY guide) No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Stock Name Price NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD PANSAR BHD KIAN J OO CAN FACTORY BHD TAFI INDUSTRIES BHD NYLEX MALAYSIA BHD APB RESOURCES BHD HB GLOBAL LTD KOTRA INDUSTRIES BHD BERJ AYA FOOD BHD SEREMBAN ENGINEERING BHD KUANTAN FLOUR MILLS BHD PELANGI PUBLISHING GROUP BHD WELLCALL HOLDINGS BHD SUIWAH CORP BHD OSK VENTURES INTERNATIONAL PLS PLANTATIONS BHD TH PLANTATIONS BHD FIMA CORP BHD MALPAC HOLDINGS BERHAD MAGNA PRIMA BHD 133.10 1.06 2.50 0.30 0.69 0.82 0.14 1.62 1.65 0.35 0.11 0.45 1.31 2.15 0.57 0.78 0.73 1.92 1.00 1.01 Bollinger Band Lower Middle Upper 135.34 145.87 156.39 1.13 1.23 1.33 2.53 2.64 2.75 0.32 0.38 0.45 0.70 0.73 0.76 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.15 0.20 0.25 1.63 1.74 1.85 1.66 1.71 1.77 0.36 0.43 0.50 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.46 0.50 0.55 1.32 1.35 1.39 2.16 2.23 2.30 0.58 0.62 0.66 0.79 0.85 0.91 0.73 0.79 0.85 1.92 1.96 2.00 1.00 1.11 1.21 1.01 1.14 1.26 RSI 14-day 31.38 31.35 24.66 21.41 28.63 32.08 30.12 31.75 38.95 32.57 25.83 36.19 33.19 30.76 32.80 18.33 28.05 31.68 20.72 37.24 5-day 139.90 1.24 2.60 0.34 0.73 0.87 0.18 1.67 1.72 0.39 0.14 0.48 1.34 2.18 0.61 0.81 0.77 1.95 1.06 1.12 Moving Average 10-day 30-day 143.98 146.47 1.25 1.19 2.62 2.68 0.36 0.39 0.73 0.75 0.87 0.89 0.20 0.20 1.70 1.77 1.72 1.73 0.41 0.45 0.14 0.14 0.49 0.50 1.35 1.37 2.21 2.30 0.63 0.62 0.83 0.89 0.78 0.83 1.96 1.97 1.08 1.14 1.11 1.18 50-day 140.61 1.07 2.74 0.41 0.77 0.93 0.20 1.74 1.76 0.51 0.15 0.51 1.42 2.41 0.62 1.00 0.88 1.98 1.20 1.21 Vol 20-day avg vol 491,100 2,657,400 25,500 10,000 360,500 1,000 13,881,500 13,000 84,100 20,000 50,200 3,000 38,500 2,000 10,000 100 220,400 3,000 1,000 10,000 194,595 2,568,990 13,610 500 100,370 8,800 8,432,120 6,410 46,020 3,375 3,310 600 97,090 2,060 90,545 3,005 176,790 24,765 430 6,895 Raw data sourced from Bloomberg S Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. As of Thursday, May 03, 2018, the chartist, Stephen Soo, who prepared this report, has interest in the following securities covered in this report: (a) nil Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 2032 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 2 of 2