Bank Indonesia Business Survey - 4Q 2016

Transcription

1. BUSINESS SURVEY Business Survey QUARTER IV-2016  The latest Bank Indonesia Business Survey revealed that businesses reported slower fourth quarter growth in line with historical trends. The downswing was reflected by a Weighted Net Balance (WNB) of 3.13%, down from 13.20% in Q3/2016. Slowing growth of business activities was primarily affected by the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector (-4.07%, WNB) and mining and quarrying sector (-1.82%, WNB). Congruous with the downswing on business activities, labour utilization decelerated as the WNB of -1.93%, down deeper from -1.85% in the previous quarter.  On the other hand, the manufacturing industry confirmed business expansion during the Q4/2016 indicated by an increase on the WNB to the level of 1.44%, higher than 1.09% in the previous quarter. The expansion was congruent with the PMI-BIBS value that stayed on expansion level of 50.91%, up from 48.74% in the previous quarter. The PMI-BIBS expansion of the manufacturing industry was observed to affect the production volume index and order volume index that stood at 55.12% and 51.04% respectively.  On a quarterly basis, respondents predicted higher business growth in the Q1/2017. The upswing was reflected in the corresponding WNB to 6.73%, mainly due to expansion in the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector as well as mining and quarrying sector. In addition, respondents predicted manufacturing industry performance to improve, with the corresponding PMI-BIBS returning to expansionary territory at 52.96%. A. Business Activity Business activity decelerated in the Q4/2016. Businesses reported slower fourth quarter growth in line with historical trends. The downswing was reflected by a WNB of 3.13%, down from 13.20% in the third quarter of 2016 (Graph 1). Respondents in the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector noted the deepest decline on business performance as reflected by a negative WNB of -4.07% compared to 1.75% previously. Decreasing business activities also confirmed by respondents in the mining and quarrying sector with a drop in the WNB from 0,44% to -1.82% (Appendix Table 1). Respondents in the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector and the mining and quarrying sector confirmed the contraction was in line with a seasonal factor in the form of inclement weather. Methodology The Business Survey has been conducted quarterly since the first quarter of 1993. In Quarter IV-2016, the Survey was extended to 2,868 enterprises spread throughout all regions of the Indonesian archipelago, selected using purposive sampling. Statistically, the respondents have a sampling error of 2% at a 5% level of significance. Data is collated through respondent questionnaires either by hardcopy or by online on BI website. The data is calculated using the net balance method, namely by calculating the difference between the percentage of respondents whose answers increased, those whose answers decreased and those whose answers remained the same. In the case of calculating the net balance of business activity, selling price and labour utilization are calculated using the net weighted balance method. The weight reflected the contribution of each sector to GDP. Since Quarter I-2014, the Survey has been conducted in the last month of the current quarter (one month earlier than usual). In addition, the questionnaire improvement and integrated web-based application both were developed. Real Sector Statistics Division 1
2. Business Survey Furthermore , respondents in 4 out of 9 sectors confirmed the slower quarterly growth on business activities, most notably in the services sector confirmed a decline in the WNB from 3.58% in Q3/2016 to 2.26%. Graph 1. Business Activity Respondents predicted higher business growth in Q1/2017. Respondents will ramp up expansion efforts in the first quarter of 2017, with WNB at 6.73%. Increasing business activities mainly due to expansion expected in the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector as reflected by a higher WNB, yet in the negative level of -0,51% compared to -4.07% previously. According to 49.61% of respondents, expanding business activity was due to seasonal factors on arrival the rice and field crops harvest time. Higher business growth for Q1/2017 was also predicted by respondents in the manufacturing industry sector (WNB increase from 1.44% to 2.98%) as well as the mining and quarrying sector (WNB increase from -1.82% to -1.08%). B. Production Capacity Average production capacity utilization remain stable. Average production capacity utilization in Q4/2016 reported at 76.28%, relatively stable from 76.21% in one quarter earlier (Graph 2). Respondents in the mining and quarrying sector confirmed the lowest level of production capacity utilisation, averaging 73.06%. While respondents in the electricity, gas and water supply noted the highest production capacity utilization at 81.81% (Appendix Table 2). Graph 2. Capacity Utilisation Real Sector Statistics Division 2
3. Business Survey C . Financial Condition and Access to Credit Financial conditions remained relatively sound and access to credit was normal. Businesses reported liquidity and profitability remained relatively sound. The survey showed that majority (55.56%) of respondents confirmed the stable liquidity condition compared to the previous quarter, while 40.89% said the liquidity was better and 3.55% stated it decline. Net Balance (NB) of liquidity in the reporting period at 37.35%, better than 35.14% in the previous quarter. In addition to liquidity, businesses also acknowledged a relatively sound in corporate ability to generate profit, as the 56.05% of respondents confirmed the stable rentability condition compared to one quarter earlier. While 40.65% said the rentability was better and 3.30% stated it decline. Net Balance (NB) of business rentability in the reporting period at 37.35%, better than 36.55% in the previous quarter. Nonetheless, respondents also conceded relatively normal access to credit compared to the previous period, reflecting lower NB access to credit from 8.45% in the previous quarter to 7.07% at Q4/2016. The survey showed that 63.86% of respondents considered access to credit normal, while 21.61% said access was easier and 14.53% found it more difficult. D. Labour Utilisation Labour utilisation decreased. Labour utilisation decreased in the reporting period as businesses slowed their expansion, indicated by the WNB contracting deeper from -1.85% to -1.93% (Graph 3). Decreasing labour utilisation was reported predominantly in the mining and quarrying sector (-1.76%, WNB), followed by the manufacturing industry sector (0.94%, WNB), as well as the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector (-0.67%, WNB). Graph 3. Labour Utilisation Respondents expected that greater business activity will precipitated a higher level of labour utilisation in the Q1/2017, reflecting a reversal in the WNB to 0.43% from -1.93% in the previous quarter. The most notable increase in terms of Real Sector Statistics Division 3
4. Business Survey labour utilisation was predicted by businesses operating in the trade , hotels and restaurants sector (0.74%, WNB) as well as the transportation and communication sector (0.40%, WNB). Moreover, this period survey also reported that despite remain stayed in the contraction phase, the level of labour utilisation in the mining and quarrying sector as well as the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector were indicated to increase due to expanded production activity in Q1/2017 as compared to Q4/2016. E. Selling Prices Respondents reported less intense inflationary pressures on selling prices in the fourth quarter 2016, but predicted pressures to build again in Q1/2017. Respondents reported less intense inflationary pressures on selling prices in the fourth quarter, reflecting a drop in the WNB from 11.90% last quarter to 11.35% (Graph 4). Businesses in the financial, real estate and corporate services sector reported lower selling prices (-0.13%, WNB), particularly in the banking subsector (-0.91%, WNB). The survey revealed that lowering selling price is in line with the current propensity to lower interest rates along with increased competition in the industry (confirmed by 35.71% and 23.81% of respondents respectively). Graph 4. Selling Price In addition to the WNB contraction reported in the financial, real estate and corporate services sector, lower selling prices were also attributed to milder inflationary pressures in the construction sector (WNB fell from 1.67% to 0.71%). According to 31.25%% of respondents, such conditions were the result of slower growth on material costs and supplementary material cost compared to the previous quarter. Respondents in the services sector also confirmed a cautious price strategy along with tight competition has brought the lower increase on their services charge during Q4/2016 (confirmed by 36.36% of respondents). Respondents expected inflationary pressures to return in Q1/2017, with a WNB of 12.54% (Graph 4). Businesses predicted higher prices in the trade, hotels and restaurants sector (3.90%, WNB), the agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector (3.32%, WNB), the manufacturing industry (3.22%, WNB) and the manufacturing industry sector (2.56%, WNB). Respondents citing the increasing on prices of raw materials as the main causes for the price increase. Real Sector Statistics Division 4
5. Business Survey F . Inflation Respondents expected inflation for 2016 at 3.43%. On average, respondents expected inflation in 2016 at 3.43% (yoy), down from 3.59% (yoy) in the previous survey, exceeding actual inflation in 2015 and 2016 at 3.35% (yoy) and 3.02% respectively, but remains within the target corridor for 2016, namely 4.0±1%. Respondents operating in the financial, real estate and corporate services sector predicted the highest inflation, averaging 3.60% (yoy), contrasting the 3.23% (yoy) rate predicted by those in the electricity, gas and water supply sector (Appendix Table 6). G. Investment Respondents confirmed gains in investment activity in Q4/2016, reflecting Respondents confirmed higher investment activity in Q4/2016, but slower in Q1/2017. an increase in the WNB of realised investment from 7.92% last quarter to 10.88%. Businesses operating in the manufacturing industry sector as well as the financial, real estate and corporate services sector confirmed greater investment activity during the reporting period, with the WNB increasing to 2.44% and 2.24% respectively. Respondents predicted lower investment activity in Q1/2017, reflecting a decrease in the WNB of realised investment from to the level of 6.10%. By sector, businesses operating in the manufacturing industry sector and the mining and quarrying sector bucked the downward trend to post a contractive WNB of -0.64% and -0.48% respectively (Appendix Table 7). Respondents noted an increase in investment activity during the second half of 2016, primarily in the form of construction and machinery investment. On semi-annual basis, respondents noted an increase in investment activity during the second half of 2016 . The results of the Business Survey revealed that 19.10% of respondents invested during the second semester of 2016. The majority of investment activity was recorded in the form of construction and machinery (confirmed by 25.93% and 24.85% of respondents respectively). In terms of value, investment in the second half of the year was higher than the previous period, reflecting a rise in the WNB from 60.85% to 64.55% in the first half of 2016. The Survey also showed that respondents considered licensing (21.99% of respondents), interest rates (13.36%) and infrastructure conditions (13.12%) as the main barriers to investment. Respondents are predicted to continue to expand their investment activity in the first half of 2017. The survey also revealed that 21.34% respondents will realize their investment plan during the first semester of 2017. In terms of value, investment in the first half of the 2017 was higher than the second half of 2016, reflecting a rise in the WNB from 64.55% to 70.02%. H. PMI PMI-BIBS indicated that firms in the manufacturing industry stayed in expansion territory. Bank Indonesia Business Survey (PMI-BIBS)* Firms in the manufacturing industry expanded, reflecting a PMI BIBS value of 50.91% in Q4/2016, up from 48.74% in the previous period (Graph 5). The growth was consistent with business expansion reported in the manufacturing industry, indicated by an increase in the WNB from 1.09% last period to 1.44%. The PMI-BIBS expansion of the manufacturing industry was observed to affect particularly in 2 out Real Sector Statistics Division 5
6. Business Survey of 5 indexes namely total production volume index and order volume index that stood at 55 .12% and 51.04% respectively (Appendix Table 8). Graph 5. PMI - BIBS Firms in the manufacturing industry expected business expansion to persist into Q1/2017, reflecting an expansionary PMI-BIBS value of 52.96%. Nearly all components (4 out of 5 indexes) contributed to the PMI-BIBS expansion, namely the total production volume index (60.56%), order volume index (51.04%), the employment index (51.04%) and the inventory index (50.08%). --------------------*) PMI-BIBS represents a composite indicator designed to provide an overview of manufacturing sector performance in Indonesia. PMI-BIBS is a composite index comprised of five other indices, namely new order volume (input), production volume (output), employment, supplier delivery times and inventory. PMI calculation is based on a pre-assessment of benchmarked Purchasing Manufacturing Indices from a number of other countries. An index reading of above 50 signals business expansion, while a reading of below 50 indicates a contraction. Graph 6. PMI-BIBS Indicators Production Volume Index Real Sector Statistics Division Percentage Response in Q IV-2016 6
7. Business Survey Order Volume Index Inventory Index Supplier Delivery Time Index Labour Index Real Sector Statistics Division 7
8. Appendix Table 1 . Business Activity (Weighted Net Balance - WNB) 2013 SECTORS 2014 QI Q II Q III QIV Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 1.28 1.56 1.04 Mining and Quarrying -0.28 0.00 Manufacturing Industry -0.09 5.00 1.16 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.16 0.19 Construction -0.08 Trade, hotels and restaurants 0.23 Transport and Communication 2015 2016 QI Q II Q III QIV QI Q II 1.31 2.14 2.10 0.81 1.63 1.94 1.12 -0.17 -0.70 0.78 -2.70 -3.38 3.81 -2.65 3.39 1.36 1.76 -0.72 0.26 0.27 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.87 0.64 0.36 -0.67 0.42 3.13 2.83 3.29 -0.19 4.04 -0.09 0.76 0.86 1.00 -0.11 Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.16 4.39 3.46 3.84 Services 1.81 2.72 2.33 1.43 TOTAL 5.10 18.62 13.35 12.61 QI Q II 1.03 2.38 1.03 -3.30 -1.76 -1.12 -1.03 -0.34 -1.18 -1.30 1.69 1.91 -0.84 -0.34 -0.77 0.20 0.26 0.19 0.19 1.03 0.57 -0.16 0.37 0.22 0.22 4.02 2.44 -0.35 1.19 1.46 0.78 0.34 3.16 2.04 1.52 2.47 3.65 3.29 3.39 2.53 2.92 4.32 4.96 2.33 2.07 2.18 2.11 21.05 11.25 11.13 Q III QIV 2017 Q III QIV Q I* 1.75 -4.07 -0.51 0.44 -1.82 -1.08 3.41 1.09 1.44 2.98 0.17 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.59 0.20 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.47 -0.54 0.10 -0.48 3.69 1.64 0.75 0.75 2.10 1.87 1.11 0.95 0.91 1.93 2.10 1.77 2.58 2.45 2.47 2.45 2.72 2.57 1.10 2.69 2.34 3.58 2.26 0.08 4.83 11.90 5.06 3.02 5.80 18.40 13.20 3.13 6.73 * Expectation Table 2. Production Capacity Utilisation (%) 2013 S E C T O R S 2014 2015 2016 QI Q II Q III Q IV QI Q II Q III Q IV QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV 76.41 76.62 74.96 75.57 79.48 75.94 78.29 81.76 71.74 79.15 78.74 76.76 78.21 77.12 77.63 75.65 - Farm Food Crops 80.95 81.71 76.33 76.82 84.18 81.45 80.43 82.91 80.77 83.60 82.24 77.74 82.39 82.94 79.48 79.48 - Non-food Crops 67.66 70.14 69.41 73.76 77.75 77.40 80.58 81.65 73.26 78.60 77.73 75.06 75.12 74.27 73.09 73.09 - Livestock & Products 75.56 79.35 80.90 78.03 84.74 77.13 77.13 81.29 79.27 86.74 82.76 80.34 86.81 82.29 80.11 76.50 - Forestry 53.25 62.40 67.38 63.50 80.35 65.92 76.21 81.60 63.64 78.89 76.55 76.18 78.57 75.26 78.83 78.83 - Fishery 69.22 66.35 75.39 73.63 70.39 77.82 77.11 81.33 61.75 67.93 74.44 74.50 68.16 70.85 76.63 70.37 74.93 75.67 79.25 71.43 70.79 76.91 83.02 79.01 69.68 77.41 72.68 72.82 69.56 78.03 77.08 73.06 69.44 70.19 71.51 71.22 74.21 77.37 74.65 76.70 74.33 75.89 68.46 70.47 71.23 70.33 73.15 74.59 - Food, Beverages and Tobacco 67.70 68.94 71.42 70.13 74.66 77.83 75.06 79.37 75.54 77.35 73.80 76.64 75.92 77.43 75.30 76.58 - Textile, Leather products and Footwear 75.66 75.32 73.93 73.25 77.66 80.95 77.27 76.78 77.38 80.68 76.61 78.15 78.51 79.84 75.50 79.81 - Wood products & Other wood products 62.72 62.54 65.24 64.56 70.00 72.23 72.38 71.23 72.57 75.77 69.77 75.94 70.47 74.24 73.34 76.61 - Paper and Printing 73.69 74.75 70.93 73.67 68.57 73.61 76.59 83.91 74.96 76.75 79.50 78.45 72.58 80.06 72.97 72.97 - Fertilizers, Chemicals and Rubber products 72.41 73.47 77.67 76.95 77.22 75.16 76.17 78.52 74.74 78.63 78.59 76.35 73.32 72.83 77.81 77.81 - Cement and Non metalic mineral products 73.33 70.73 81.35 79.20 83.14 69.38 71.73 74.55 76.16 80.41 85.39 87.29 75.21 77.50 77.11 69.90 - Iron and Basic steel 62.27 61.63 67.14 79.16 68.54 74.16 71.49 74.47 66.88 72.60 64.29 69.29 64.59 65.53 62.55 69.43 - Transport equipment, Machinery & Apparatus 72.28 76.90 74.20 74.00 72.41 77.70 76.11 72.11 73.72 64.26 71.26 68.42 65.52 68.78 68.42 71.55 - Other manufacturing products 65.84 68.25 67.73 65.94 72.15 75.72 75.02 79.33 76.98 76.55 75.41 79.12 76.18 77.12 75.31 76.62 70.41 71.38 74.96 77.14 77.67 77.67 76.75 81.65 76.51 78.84 81.56 80.88 83.98 82.56 76.98 81.81 AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FORESTRY & FISHERY MINING & QUARRYING MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY TOTAL Real Sector Statistics Division 72.49 72.62 73.18 73.10 75.54 76.97 78.18 79.78 73.06 77.82 75.36 75.23 75.75 77.01 76.21 76.28 8
9. Table 3 . Other Indicators (%) 2013 INDICATORS QI Q II 42.51 42.84 54.48 53.89 3.01 2014 Q III Q IV QI Q II 41.68 42.86 44.47 55.06 54.56 52.18 3.27 3.26 2.58 39.50 39.56 38.42 40.40 39.87 56.34 57.24 3.26 2015 Q III Q IV QI Q II 43.17 32.64 54.17 63.60 28.35 26.08 66.75 63.37 3.35 2.66 3.77 4.91 40.28 41.12 40.52 28.87 39.58 39.18 57.24 58.24 42.78 40.66 54.10 56.72 2.90 3.18 2.58 3.12 37.14 36.97 36.39 36.59 25.73 59.82 21.50 20.43 59.84 58.87 14.45 18.65 11.29 2.85 2016 Q III Q IV QI Q II Q III Q IV 38.22 26.64 56.46 64.86 34.60 39.34 60.49 56.07 40.89 38.94 40.89 55.87 57.25 10.56 5.32 8.51 4.91 55.56 4.59 3.24 3.80 23.44 15.52 32.90 18.13 3.55 29.70 34.75 37.66 35.14 37.35 31.31 26.60 64.47 68.53 24.51 36.34 65.23 58.26 24.99 34.11 36.74 41.96 40.19 40.65 66.75 60.77 58.40 55.04 56.18 2.62 4.22 4.87 10.26 56.05 5.40 8.26 5.12 4.86 3.00 3.64 39.66 38.04 27.09 21.74 3.30 14.25 30.95 16.73 28.99 31.88 38.96 36.55 37.35 20.56 22.49 61.67 60.73 20.56 17.96 63.24 65.63 19.87 19.65 22.10 17.08 19.53 24.21 22.51 21.56 21.61 64.06 62.95 62.00 63.18 62.94 58.35 63.18 65.34 20.70 17.78 16.78 16.20 63.86 16.41 16.07 17.40 15.90 19.73 17.53 17.44 14.31 13.10 -0.27 2.78 5.71 4.36 14.53 1.55 3.81 2.26 6.20 -2.65 2.00 6.77 8.20 8.45 7.07 Financial condition over past three months: - Liquidity Better Same Worse Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) - Earnings Better Same Worse Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) Access to credit over past three months: Easy Normal Tight Net Balance (% Easy - % Tight) Table 4. Labour Utilisation (Weighted Net Balance WNB) 2013 SECTORS QI Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries Q II Q III 2014 QIV QI Q II 2015 Q III QIV QI Q II 2016 Q III QIV 0.17 0.33 0.11 0.58 0.21 0.53 0.19 0.26 0.48 -0.34 -0.11 -0.22 Q III 2017 QI Q II QIV QI* 0.90 0.48 -0.31 -0.67 -0.19 Mining and Quarrying -2.00 -2.81 3.93 -0.72 0.25 -0.22 0.21 -1.79 -2.24 -1.33 -1.34 -1.24 0.25 -0.86 -1.12 -1.76 -0.88 Manufacturing Industry -1.52 -0.34 -2.98 -0.07 -2.08 0.13 0.01 -0.85 -0.11 -0.99 -0.90 -1.86 -1.95 -0.02 -1.35 -0.94 -0.40 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) -0.09 -0.04 -0.10 -0.01 -0.12 -0.02 0.05 -0.06 -0.03 0.01 0.01 -0.03 -0.01 0.13 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.29 0.16 0.35 0.22 0.22 0.32 0.25 -0.61 0.33 0.45 0.54 0.18 0.24 -0.96 -0.01 -0.57 0.00 -0.55 0.86 -0.65 0.08 0.74 Transport and Communication 0.15 0.06 -0.05 0.48 0.09 0.15 0.48 0.36 0.25 1.00 -0.26 0.11 0.33 0.04 0.18 0.22 0.40 Financial, real estate and corporate services 1.64 1.16 1.11 1.35 2.29 1.79 1.60 1.45 1.21 1.39 0.84 0.80 0.97 0.99 0.38 0.68 0.29 Services 0.00 0.84 0.03 0.44 0.58 -0.06 -0.11 0.26 -0.42 0.70 0.49 0.20 1.77 0.54 0.64 0.18 0.18 -1.25 0.01 1.67 2.85 1.58 2.90 2.62 -0.07 -2.15 0.73 -1.75 -1.94 1.94 2.32 -1.85 -1.93 0.43 Construction 0.08 0.56 0.23 0.48 -0.07 0.04 0.00 0.06 -0.33 0.29 Trade, hotels and restaurants TOTAL 0.23 * Expectation Table 5. Selling Price (Weighted Net Balance WNB) SECTORS 2013 QI Q II Q III 2014 QIV QI Q II Q III 2015 QIV QI Q II Q III 2016 QIV QI Q II 2017 Q III QIV Q I* Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries -0.58 3.05 4.54 4.54 2.91 4.08 3.04 6.62 4.50 4.97 5.46 4.41 2.19 2.95 2.63 2.61 3.22 Mining and Quarrying 5.52 0.00 -0.25 -0.06 1.25 3.77 -0.95 0.22 -0.68 -1.57 -0.59 -0.37 0.54 1.59 1.26 2.51 0.35 Manufacturing Industry 5.06 4.34 8.19 4.33 7.07 5.53 3.88 4.96 3.03 3.25 1.71 1.30 4.19 3.35 1.66 1.80 2.56 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.20 0.16 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.25 0.16 0.20 0.07 0.17 0.12 0.26 0.26 Construction 1.01 1.30 1.66 1.48 1.45 0.88 1.58 2.25 1.68 1.57 1.54 1.52 1.37 0.82 1.67 0.71 1.02 Trade, hotels and restaurants 3.70 4.35 4.84 3.83 4.99 5.03 4.61 6.45 4.83 5.14 5.29 4.62 4.20 3.42 3.17 2.71 3.90 Transport and Communication 0.44 1.44 1.02 0.64 0.63 0.84 0.87 1.89 0.94 1.03 0.87 0.69 0.30 0.59 0.50 0.44 0.59 Financial, real estate and corporate services -0.02 0.49 1.96 1.22 2.27 1.27 1.94 1.88 1.29 1.09 0.82 0.97 0.08 -1.27 -0.48 -0.13 0.19 Services 0.21 1.25 1.29 0.65 2.10 0.48 0.85 1.80 1.15 1.57 1.45 0.65 15.53 16.47 23.53 16.91 22.86 22.03 16.15 26.36 17.04 17.30 16.72 14.00 1.53 14.48 1.19 12.81 1.37 0.43 0.46 11.90 11.35 12.54 TOTAL * Expectation Real Sector Statistics Division 9
10. Table 6 . Annual Inflation Expectations (% of respondents) EXPECTATION FOR 2014 EXPECTATION FOR 2015 Q3-2014 Survey Q4-2014 Survey Q3-2015 Survey Q4-2015 Survey Q1-2016 Survey Q2-2016 Survey Q3-2016 Survey Q4-2016 Survey Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 6.17 6.47 4.12 3.40 3.43 3.66 3.61 3.46 Mining and Quarrying 6.05 6.13 4.44 3.63 3.54 3.63 3.77 3.54 Manufacturing Industry 6.06 6.39 4.23 3.60 3.41 3.73 3.58 3.48 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 6.08 6.59 3.91 3.54 3.61 3.42 3.53 3.23 Construction 6.20 6.33 4.45 3.65 3.65 3.47 3.65 3.47 Trade, hotels and restaurants 6.01 6.27 4.36 3.45 3.59 3.63 3.51 3.45 Transport and Communication 5.97 6.32 4.31 3.46 3.47 3.71 3.56 3.33 Financial, real estate and corporate services 5.96 6.15 4.59 3.74 3.71 3.64 3.64 3.60 Services TOTAL 6.07 6.06 6.24 6.32 4.12 4.28 3.21 3.52 3.52 3.55 3.64 3.61 3.49 3.59 3.28 3.43 S E CT ORS Inflation Target 4.5 ± 1 EXPECTATION FOR 2016 4.0 ± 1 4.0 ± 1 Table 7a. Realisation of Investment** (Weighted Net Balance WNB) SECTORS 2014 2015 QI QII QIII Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 1.65 1.35 1.72 Mining and Quarrying -0.16 0.92 Manufacturing Industry 1.44 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) QI QII QIII 1.73 2.03 0.93 1.25 0.17 0.26 1.34 0.94 2.08 2.37 1.71 1.69 0.01 0.14 0.21 0.20 Construction 0.60 0.46 0.74 Trade, hotels and restaurants 1.63 1.90 1.83 Transport and Communication 0.94 0.78 Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.24 Services 1.83 TOTAL QII 1.26 0.99 1.58 0.51 1.08 0.99 0.71 0.23 -0.48 1.79 -0.02 0.06 (0.48) 0.56 0.16 -0.02 -0.64 1.00 0.95 2.44 (0.64) 0.10 0.22 0.18 0.13 0.12 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.12 0.51 0.46 0.49 0.47 0.49 0.03 0.46 0.83 0.54 0.03 1.33 1.01 1.80 0.94 1.33 1.08 1.83 1.42 1.76 1.08 0.88 0.80 0.79 0.81 0.77 1.04 0.69 0.78 0.77 0.92 0.69 2.10 2.08 2.13 2.28 2.23 1.45 2.61 2.24 1.83 1.90 2.24 2.24 1.34 0.56 1.32 1.23 1.61 0.79 1.38 2.07 1.34 1.34 1.64 2.07 10.88 6.10 9.98 10.93 9.60 6.71 QIV 2017 QI 10.18 11.06 10.55 QIV 2016 8.44 6.10 10.82 QIII 7.92 QIV * Expectation ** Realisation of investment start to be asked since QI-2014 Real Sector Statistics Division 10 QI*
11. Table 7b . Realisation of Investment (Semi annually) (%) 2013 INVESTMENT Smt I 2014 Smt II Smt I 2015 Smt II Smt I 2016 Smt II Smt I 2017 Smt I Smt II REALIZATION Realization of Investment (% respondent) Amount of the investment (SB) 10.53 50.45 16.31 55.09 18.26 57.46 19.86 58.57 21.27 46.99 20.29 67.22 19.36 60.85 19.10 64.55 40.45 19.55 40.00 41.99 17.06 40.94 38.15 16.06 45.78 42.32 14.82 42.86 54.90 22.14 22.96 60.45 15.96 23.59 59.06 23.25 17.69 55.70 24.61 19.69 11.46 20.45 14.38 21.80 17.53 12.02 20.25 15.21 20.12 18.65 15.44 24.32 16.22 26.90 17.12 14.32 25.44 20.37 24.45 15.42 13.17 25.87 17.13 25.17 18.65 13.73 25.35 16.67 26.53 17.72 15.01 26.21 16.97 23.21 18.59 13.81 25.93 17.17 24.85 18.25 21.27 4.65 4.16 9.54 12.71 18.34 17.85 11.49 24.34 4.42 3.98 9.29 11.95 15.49 19.47 11.06 33.85 4.65 4.13 8.01 8.27 14.99 17.05 9.04 21.84 5.70 6.12 9.46 7.93 16.27 12.38 8.48 11.82 16.75 6.80 5.95 10.92 7.16 16.63 12.01 8.25 15.53 18.88 7.43 8.13 9.44 8.03 17.67 10.54 8.13 11.75 14.48 5.12 7.49 9.36 8.86 18.48 12.11 10.11 13.98 13.36 6.50 7.45 9.57 9.34 21.99 13.12 5.91 12.77 1) Purpose of Investment (%) New investment Replacement New investment and replacement Types of Investment (% respondent's answer) Land Building / Factory Transportation Machinery Other Equipment Limiting factors of investment (%) Rate Security factor Tax Regulation Labour Administration Infrastructur Acces to bank loan Others** 1) 1) Data were collected since quarter II - 2006 Real Sector Statistics Division 11 21.34 70.02
12. Table 8 . PMI - BIBS (%) PMI Components Period 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Production Level New Orders from Customers Speed of Supplier Deliveries Inventories Employment Level PMI I 49.11 46.18 46.67 48.70 46.42 47.28 II 56.35 49.91 48.43 49.48 50.61 51.40 III 54.21 50.51 47.98 49.58 48.91 50.64 IV 53.89 51.07 47.18 48.44 49.22 50.56 I 51.15 47.51 47.07 47.96 49.73 48.85 II 59.64 51.39 47.57 50.26 51.65 52.82 III 50.00 48.86 47.36 50.26 49.47 49.18 IV 54.51 49.08 46.78 49.54 46.69 49.66 I 50.18 45.41 45.76 48.23 46.64 47.18 II 59.86 50.10 48.51 50.80 50.10 52.37 III 51.12 49.23 47.41 48.97 47.07 48.97 IV 57.99 55.17 47.37 50.66 48.87 52.99 I 49.83 46.66 48.63 49.74 49.40 48.60 II 59.80 50.00 48.47 51.38 50.38 52.43 III 52.78 47.29 48.24 50.37 48.98 49.45 IV 53.25 45.93 47.20 49.73 48.73 48.89 I 41.89 45.08 45.12 49.87 46.04 44.96 II 60.03 44.96 47.75 50.39 47.91 50.28 III 46.32 45.94 46.32 49.34 46.10 46.46 IV 52.64 45.11 47.67 49.02 47.44 48.23 I 47.20 45.21 47.35 49.04 46.61 46.69 II 59.08 50.22 48.39 52.42 50.22 52.38 III 52.39 47.01 48.28 48.95 47.01 48.74 IV 55.12 51.04 48.64 48.08 48.56 50.91 I* 60.56 51.04 48.64 50.08 51.04 52.96 Real Sector Statistics Division 12