Bangladesh: Major Economic Indicators - May 2022

Transcription

1. Volume 05 /2022 May 2022 Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update Monetary Policy Department BANGLADESH BANK
2. Contents Executive summary Page No . 1-2 1. Money and credit developments 3 2. Reserve money developments 4 3. Liquidity situation of the scheduled banks a) Bank group-wise liquid assets b) Liquidity indicators of the scheduled banks Financial sector prices a) Weighted average yields on bills, bonds, BB policy rate and call money rate b) Interest rate spread of Banks and Non-Bank Financial Institutions 4. 5. Capital market developments 6. Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections b) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) c) Government deficit financing CPI and inflation Industrial production a)Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry b)Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industry Food situations Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit Industrial and CMSME loans a) Industrial term loans b) CMSME loans Exports a) Annual exports b) Monthly exports c) Category-wise breakdown of exports Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening b) Item-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs c) Projected data on opening of import LCs & probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorized dealer banks 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 5-6 6 7 8 9 10-13 10-11 11-12 12-13 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 14. Workers’ remittances 23 15. Foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks 24 16. Foreign aid 25 17. Exchange rate movements 18. Balance of payments Appendix: Break-up of fresh opening and settlements of import LCs Comments and suggestions may be sent to: omar.faruq@bb.org.bd sadia.sultana@bb.org.bd abeda.sultana@bb.org.bd nabila.fahria@bb.org.bd sunita.rani@bb.org.bd 25-26 27 28 -29
3. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Executive Summary 1. Movements of monetary indicators Growth of broad money (M2) was lower while credit to the private sector was higher in April 2022 than that of the same month of the preceding year. Broad money (M2) growth stood lower at 10.88 percent (y-o-y) at the end of April 2022 as compared with 13.15 percent growth at the end of of the same month of the previous year due to decrease of net foreign assets (NFA) of the banking system by 5.11 percent at the end of April 2022 compared to 30.89 percent growth at the end of April 2021. On the other hand, private sector credit growth stood higher at 12.48 percent (y-o-y) in April 2022 compared to 8.29 percent (y-o-y) growth at the end of the same month of the previous year. Reserve money growth was significantly lower in April 2022 than that of April 2021 Reserve money growth stood lower at 7.51 percent (y-o-y) at the end of April 2022 compared to 23.30 percent at the end of April 2021 due to decrease of net foreign asset (NFA) of Bangladesh Bank by 4.28 percent (y-o-y) at the end of April 2022 compared to its level of April 2021. Weighted average call money rate in the interbank money market increased significantly up to May 29, 2022 from April, 2022 Weighted average interest rate spread of all banks and NBFIs decreased in April 2022 2. Financial sector prices The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market increased significantly to 4.71 percent up to May 29, 2022 from 4.58 percent in April 2022, the rate was 2.25 percent at the end of June 2021. The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks and NBFIs decreased to 3.07 percent and 2.68 percent respectively in April 2022 from 3.10 percent and 2.86 percent in March 2022. 3. Public finance NBR tax revenue collection increased significantly during July-March of FY22 The largest share of government deficit financing was met up from foreign sources during July-March of FY22 NBR tax revenue collection during July-March of FY22 stood at Taka 204008.15 crore which was higher by Taka 25750.75 crore or 14.45 percent against the collection of Taka 178257.40 crore during July-March of FY21. However, this amount of collection during July-March of FY22 was 61.82 percent of the target set for FY22. Among the three sources (banking system, non-bank and foreign) of government deficit financing the largest share was 58.77 percent from the foreign sources during July-March of FY22 while it was 47.79 percent during July-March of FY21. Both the point to point general inflation and the twelve month average general inflation rate have increased in April 2022 The average general index of industrial production has significantly increased during July-January of FY22 4. Inflation scenario and index of industrial production Both the point-to-point general inflation and twelve month average general inflation significantly increased to 6.29 percent and 5.81 percent in April 2022 respectively from 6.22 percent and 5.75 percent in March 2022. The average general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 509.06 during July-January of FY22 with a 17.46 percent increase from the average index of 433.38 during July-January of FY21. 1
4. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 5. Development of agriculture and industrial credit The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased during JulyApril of FY22 Both disbursement and recovery of industrial term loans increased during October-December of FY22. The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 13.62 percent and 28.83 percent respectively during July-April of FY22 compared to JulyApril of FY21. Disbursement and recovery of industrial term loans amounted to Taka 18772.59 crore and Taka 18477.41 crore respectively during the second quarter (October-December) of FY22 which were 13.78 percent and 18.91 percent higher respectively as compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year. 6. External sector performance Merchandise commodity exports significantly increased during JulyApril of FY22 Merchandise imports increased substantially during July-March of FY22 Fresh opening of import LC has substantially increased during JulyMarch of FY22 Merchandise commodity exports during July-April of FY22 increased by USD 11271.60 million or 35.14 percent to USD 43344.34 million compared to USD 32072.73 million during July-April of FY21. Custom based imports increased significantly by USD 20268.80 million or 43.84 percent to USD 66498.70 million during July-March of FY22 against USD 46229.90 million during July-March of FY21. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-March of FY22 increased by 46.04 percent to USD 68361.78 million compared to USD 46810.44 million during July-March of FY21 Inflow of overseas workers’ remittances decreased substantially during July-April of FY22 Forex reserves stood at USD 42.23 billion as on May 26, 2022 Total receipts from overseas workers’ remittances during July-April of FY22 substantially decreased by USD 3358.12 million or 16.25 percent to USD 17307.75 million against USD 20665.87 million during July-April of FY21. Gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 44017.55 million at the end of April 2022, which was USD 44146.78 million at the end of March 2022. This amount stood at USD 42225.15 million as on May 26, 2022; after ACU Payment of USD 2158.39 million on May 10, 2022. Receipts of total foreign aid and net foreign aid increased during JulyMarch of FY22 Total foreign aid receipts stood higher by USD 2290.17 million or 50.82 percent to USD 6796.83 million during July-March of FY22 as compared to the level of JulyMarch of FY21. Net foreign aid also stood higher by USD 2160.08 million or 62.30 percent to USD 5627.22 million during July-March of FY22 as compared to USD 3467.14 million during July-March of FY21. Current account balance and overall balance stood at a deficit during JulyMarch of FY22 Deficit in current account balance and overall balance was USD 14072 million and USD 3097 million respectively during July-March of FY22 as compared to the deficit of USD 555 million and surplus of USD 6990 million respectively during July- March of FY21. Note: The information furnished in the executive summary and the subsequent pages are provisional and subject to revision. 2
5. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 1. Money and credit developments (Taka in crore) Particulars June, 2020 April, 2021 June, 2021 R April, 2022 P July-April, FY22 July-April, FY21 1 2 3 4 5 6=(5-4) 7=(3-2) A. Net Foreign Assets of the banking system 297336.20 369707.20 382337.50 350826.90 -31510.60 72371.00 B. Net Domestic Assets of the banking system a) Domestic credit Public sector Government (net) Other Public Private sector b) Other items (net) Broad money (A+B) A) Currency outside banks B) Deposits of the banking system (+9.15) (+30.89) (+28.59) (-5.11) (-143.54) (+619.37) 1076398.90 1130734.30 1178557.80 1312877.70 134319.90 54335.40 (+13.64) 1307633.80 (+14.02) 210365.90 (+53.97) 181150.80 (+59.92) 29215.10 (+25.09) 1097267.90 (+8.61) -231234.90 1373735.10 (+12.64) 192114.50 (+24.52) (+8.35) 1382231.80 (+8.54) 217900.40 (+9.88) 187168.10 (+11.16) 30732.30 (+2.72) 1164331.40 (+8.29) -251497.50 1500441.50 (+13.15) 192410.90 (+8.33) (+9.49) 1439899.00 (+10.11) 251043.70 (+19.34) 221025.90 (+22.01) 30017.80 (+2.75) 1188855.30 (+8.35) -261341.20 1560895.30 (+13.62) 209517.70 (+9.06) (+16.11) 1600069.60 (+15.76) 290438.80 (+33.29) 254529.30 (+35.99) 35909.50 (+16.85) 1309630.80 (+12.48) -287191.90 1663704.60 (+10.88) 236791.90 (+23.07) (+147.21) 160170.60 (+114.71) 39395.10 (+422.86) 33503.40 (+456.78) 5891.70 (+288.33) 120775.50 (+80.09) -25850.70 102809.30 (-18.86) 27274.20 (+9101.82) (-43.63) 74598.00 (-41.07) 7534.50 (-87.78) 6017.30 (-89.08) 1517.20 (-76.88) 67063.50 (+3.31) -20262.60 126706.40 (+19.02) 296.40 (-98.73) 1181620.60 1308030.60 1351377.60 1426912.70 75535.10 126410.00 (+10.92) (+13.90) (+14.37) (+9.09) (-40.25) (+52.08) 136149.40 147423.80 166311.00 166477.60 166.60 11274.40 (+14.41) (+23.47) (+22.15) (+12.92) (-98.52) (+2769.53) b) Time deposits 1045471.20 1160606.80 1185066.60 1260435.10 75368.50 115135.60 (+10.48) (+12.78) (+13.35) (+8.60) (-34.54) (+39.18) Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period. P = provisional, R = Revised. a) Demand deposits Note: - Growth rate in this table is calculated with the formula: a. Broad money Broad money (M2) recorded an increase of 10.88 percent at the end of April 2022 against the increase of 13.15 percent at the end of April 2021. Of the sources of broad money, net foreign assets (NFA) decreased by 5.11 percent while net domestic assets (NDA) increased by 16.11 percent at the end of April 2022 as compared to the same month of the previous year. The decrease of NFA contributed to the lower growth of broad money in April 2022. b. Domestic credit Domestic credit recorded an increase of 15.76 percent at the end of April 2022 against the increase of 8.54 percent at the end of April 2021. Of which credit to the public sector and private sector grew by 33.29 percent and 12.48 percent respectively at the end of April 2022 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Other way round, the public sector and the private sector credit during July-April of FY22 increased by 422.86 percent and 80.09 percent respectively compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. As a result, domestic credit during July-April of FY22 increased by 114.71 percent. Trends of broad money growth (year-on-year) 20 13.15 15 Trends of domestic credit growth (year-on-year) 20 15 Percent 10 5 FY21 10 8.54 5 FY22 FY21 FY22 Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul. May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug. Jun 3 Aug. 0 0 Jul. Percent 15.76 10.88
6. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 2. Reserve money developments Particulars 1 A) Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank B) Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank Claims on Govt.(net) Claims on other public Claims on DMBs Other items (net) Reserve money (A+B) A) Currency Issued i) Currency outside banks ii) Cash in tills B) Deposits held with BB June, 2020 2 286040.90 (+11.22) -1557.50 (+85.85) 42117.10 (+35.04) 2551.90 (+7.20) 13764.90 (+155.53) -59991.40 284483.40 (+15.56) 208094.10 (+22.13) April, 2021 3 352524.20 (+32.73) -36462.80 (-293.40) -1952.80 (-105.61) 3189.70 (+23.75) 19328.50 (+86.44) -57028.20 316061.40 (+23.30) 210191.10 (+8.51) June, 2021R 4 366917.30 (+28.27) -18845.50 (-1109.98) 17285.50 (-58.96) 3218.10 (+26.11) 18952.30 (+37.69) -58301.40 348071.80 (+22.35) 226888.30 (+9.03) April, 2022P 5 337431.10 (-4.28) 2358.20 (+106.47) 32555.40 (+1767.11) 3494.90 (+9.57) 20880.90 (+8.03) -54573.00 339789.30 (+7.51) 255765.30 (+21.68) July-April, FY22 6=(5-4) -29486.20 (-144.35) 21203.70 (+160.75) 15269.90 (+134.65) 276.80 (-56.60) 1928.60 (-65.34) 3728.40 -8282.50 (-126.23) 28877.00 (+1277.06) (Taka in crore) July-April, FY21 7=(3-2) 66483.30 (+690.97) -34905.30 (-2107.21) -44069.90 (-1321.18) 637.80 (+223.59) 5563.60 (+11.72) 2963.20 31578.00 (+211.29) 2097.00 (-91.01) 192114.50 (+24.52) 15979.60 (-0.75) 192410.90 (+8.33) 17780.20 (+10.54) 209517.70 (+9.06) 17370.60 (+8.70) 236791.90 (+23.07) 18973.40 (+6.71) 27274.20 (+9101.82) 1602.80 (-10.99) 296.40 (-98.73) 1800.60 (+12024.50) 76389.30 (+0.78) 105870.30 (+69.05) 121183.50 (+58.64) 84024.00 (-20.63) -37159.50 (-226.05) 29481.00 (+323.76) Of which: Excess reserves 25935.89 49109.41 63854.22 21854.10 -42000.12 23173.53 (+33.39) (+300.05) (+146.20) (-55.50) (-281.24) (+423.29) Money multiplier 4.83 4.75 4.48 4.90 NA NA Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period. P = provisional, R = Revised, NA = Not applicable. Note: - Growth rate in this table is calculated with the formula: 4 Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug. Jul. Percent Reserve money (RM) recorded a lower growth of Trends of reserve money growth 7.51 percent at the end of April 2022 compared to 25 (year-on-year) 23.30 23.30 percent at the end of April of 2021. Of the 20 sources of reserve money, net foreign assets of Bangladesh Bank decreased by 4.28 percent while 15 net domestic assets of Bangladesh Bank increased 10 by 106.47 percent at the end of April 2022 7.51 compared to the levels of April 2021. The 5 decrease of NFA was mainly responsible for the FY21 FY22 0 lower growth of reserve money in April 2022 compared to that of April 2021. Money multiplier stood at 4.90 at the end of April 2022 from 4.48 at the end of June 2021, resulting from an increase of currency deposit ratio paired with a decrease of reserve ratio.
7. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 3. Liquidity situation of the scheduled banks (Taka in crore) a. Bank group-wise liquid assets Bank Group Taka 423462.95 crore as of end April, 2022 which was Taka 449087.10 crore at the end of June, scheduled banks at the end of April, 2022 was Taka 236866.91 crore. Total Liquid Assets 4b 5 6 =(3+4a+4b+5) 7 16.49 433.65 122232.49 141014.98 68617.22 1684.29 72.00 10.12 n/a 1766.41 1684.29 12478.32 27638.55 4018.08 3101.20 136132.46 183368.62 117471.19 Cash in tills + balances with Total Liquid Sonali Bank Ltd. Assets Balances with Bangladesh Bank 1/ Local Currency CRR * 1 2 3 State-owned Banks 168621.84 2084.90 16247.45 1697.67 n/a 177699.82 Specialised Banks Private Banks (Other than Islamic) P Unencumbered approved securities As of end June, 2021 Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks stood at 2021. The minimum required liquid assets of the As of end April, 2022 Excess Reserve Foreign Currency (un-invested cash) 4a Minimum Required Liquid Assets2/ Total excess liquid assets continued to decrease in Islamic Banks # 64288.95 4212.51 14488.07 13980.34 1124.96 23684.52 57490.40 34527.43 April, 2022 compared to the previous months of Foreign Banks 36778.82 707.36 3141.36 2306.66 3331.04 30336.10 39822.53 14566.78 the current fiscal year, due to gradual increase in Total 449087.10 19483.10 63199.73 20393.58 8000.97 312385.58 423462.95 236866.91 (+4.60) (+14.92) (+4.82) (+1.89) (+73.77) credit demand along with Bangladesh Bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market with sale of USD. (as % of total liquid assets) Source : Department of Offsite Supervision, BB. Comment: The data shown on the above table are based on the regulatory purpose of Bangladesh Bank . Note :- Figures in brack ets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional. , R= Revised. *CRR is calculated @ 4.0% since April 15, 2020; 1/ Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency = CRR + Excess Reserve; 2/ Minimum required liquid assets is the sum of CRR and SLR; n/a = Data not required for supervision purpose. # Standard Bank and Global Islami Bank (Previously: NRB Global Bank ) has been functioning as full fleged islami bank s since November, 2020. 5
8. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Trends of excess liquid assets (Excess of SLR): bank group-wise* billion taka 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Apr'22 Mar'22 Feb'22 Jan'22 Dec'21 Nov'21 Oct'21 Sep'21 Aug'21 Jul'21 Jun'21 May'21 Apr'21 0 Foreign Banks Islamic State-owned Private (Other than Islamic) Total Excess Liquid Assets * Specialized banks are exempted from SLR requirement b. Liquidity indicators of the scheduled banks As on End End End End End End End September, 2020 December, 2020 March, 2021 June, 2021 September, 2021 December, 2021 March, 2022 Advance Deposit Ratio (ADR) 74.01% 72.69% 72.82% 71.55% 72.08% 73.15% 74.17% Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) 225.57% 224.77% 211.32% 211.70% 200.83% 193.60% 180.39% Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) 111.19% 110.06% 108.59% 109.39% 110.56% 110.13% 107.78% Source: Department of Off-site Supervision, Bangladesh Bank . Advance Deposit Ratio (ADR) in the banking system remained well below the allowable limit set by BB up to end of March 2022. Maintained Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) of the banking sector remained above the minimum requirement of 100 percent at end of March 20221, indicating banks had high-quality liquid asset that would cover the banks net cash flows for a minimum of 30 days. Additionally, at the end of March 2022 the minimum regulatory requirement of holding Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) was also maintained, which also indicates that banking industry had enough available stable funding for the whole year for any unfavorable situation. Even though, regulatory requirements were very well met during the period under review, the falling trend of both LCR and NSFR ratio indicates need for caution in the banking system. 1 Banks were instructed in September 2019 to maintain their ADR within maximum 85 (81.5 percent + 3.5 percent of special consideration) percent for conventional banks and 90 (89.0 percent + 1.0 percent of special consideration) percent for Islamic Shari’ah based banks respectively according to DOS circular no.05 dated 17 September 2019. LCR measures a bank’s need for liquid assets in a stressed environment over the next 30 calendar days: minimum requirement for LCR is greater or equal to 100 percent. NSFR measures a bank’s need for liquid assets in a stressed environment over one year period: minimum requirement for NSFR is greater than 100 percent. 6
9. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 4. Financial sector prices a. Weighted average yields on bills, bonds, BB policy rates and call money rate Treasury Bills 91-Day BGTB BB Bill 182-Day 364-Day 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 07-Day 14-Day 30-Day Repo* Reverse Repo* Call Money Rate FY21 June FY22 0.52 0.68 1.21 2.44 3.84 5.38 5.65 6.06 --- --- --- 4.75 4.00 2.25 July 0.60 1.25 2.00 2.59 3.05 2.36 2.33 2.10 2.43 4.07 4.95 0.81 1.30 2.50 2.96 3.56 3.19 3.05 2.66 3.05 4.36 5.38 1.29 2.61 2.76 3.49 3.94 3.44 3.39 3.31 3.75 5.29 5.98 2.23 2.26 --3.98 4.66 4.68 4.60 4.23 4.61 5.85 6.14 3.81 4.01 4.67 5.56 6.38 6.41 6.40 5.75 6.11 6.88 7.53 5.25 5.87 6.19 6.71 7.39 7.38 7.04 6.36 6.92 7.63 8.00 5.64 --6.19 7.14 7.88 7.77 7.31 7.19 7.48 7.93 --- 6.01 --6.31 7.38 7.98 7.87 7.52 7.32 7.63 8.02 --- --0.87 1.28 1.84 1.92 ------------- --1.09 1.51 2.21 2.40 ------------- --1.30 1.89 2.57 2.64 ------------- 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 2.22 1.79 1.90 2.25 3.15 2.66 2.43 2.80 2.66 4.58 4.71 August September October November December January February March April May@ Source: Monetary Policy Department and Debt Management Department, Bangladesh Bank . ---- = there was no auction, @= up to May 29, 2022. * The Repo rate was re-fixed at 5.00% with effect from 29.05.2022 while the Revers e Repo rate remained unchanged at 4.00% s ince 30.07.2020 . The weighted average yields on 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-day treasury bills increased to 4.95 percent, 5.38 percent and 5.98 percent respectively up to May 29 of FY22 from their levels of April of FY22. The weighted average yields on 2-Year, 5-Year and 10-Year BGTB also increased to 6.14 percent, 7.53 percent and 8.00 percent respectively in May of FY22 from their levels of April of FY22; and the weighted average yields on 15-Year and 20-Year BGTB in April of FY22 increased to 7.93 percent and 8.02 percent respectively from their levels of March of FY22. Bangladesh Bank has increased repo rate by 25 basis points and re-fixed at 5.00 percent, effective from 29 May 2022; while, reverse repo rate remained unchanged at 4.00 percent. The weighted average call money rate up to May 29 of FY22 in the inter-bank money market reached to 4.71 percent which is very close to the upper edge of the Repo and Reverse Repo corridor; indicating continued high demand for liquidity in the money market since the festival season. However, weighted average rate of BB bills (07-Day, 14-Day and 30-Day) has been 2.32 percent on an average in November 2021, according its last auction. Repo, Reverse-Repo and call money rate 5.0 5.98 5.00 4.71 4.0 5.38 4.95 4.00 Percent 3.0 2.0 1.0 7 Apr.22 Mar.22 Feb.22 Jan.22 Dec.21 Oct.21 Reverse-Repo Nov.21 Sep.21 Aug.21 Jul.21 Jun.21 Repo Call money rate May.22 (up to 29) 364-day May.21 Apr.22 Mar.22 Feb.22 Jan.22 Dec.21 Oct.21 Nov.21 182-day May.22 (up to 29) 91-day Sep.21 Aug.21 Jul.21 Jun.21 0.0 May.21 Percent Yields on treasury bills 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
10. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank b. Interest rate spread of banks and non-bank financial institutions (Percent) Sector-wise break down of interest rate spread of all scheduled banks All other sectors SME Agriculture Large Industries Services (excluding SME) Spread WAIR* on advances Spread WAIR* on advances WAIR* WAIR* on on deposits advances 4.13 7.33 3.20 7.20 3.07 7.44 3.31 7.38 3.25 7.21 3.08 7.66 3.53 7.82 11.19 3.37 4.10 4.05 4.08 4.01 3.99 3.99 4.01 4.02 4.01 4.02 7.30 7.24 7.24 7.15 7.15 7.16 7.12 7.10 7.11 7.09 3.20 3.19 3.16 3.14 3.16 3.17 3.11 3.08 3.10 3.07 7.15 7.14 7.15 7.13 7.15 7.16 7.09 7.09 7.07 7.07 3.05 3.09 3.07 3.12 3.16 3.17 3.08 3.07 3.06 3.05 7.33 7.27 7.25 7.15 7.15 7.18 7.14 7.11 7.11 7.10 3.23 3.22 3.17 3.14 3.16 3.19 3.13 3.09 3.10 3.08 7.33 7.28 7.27 7.25 7.16 7.23 7.22 7.22 7.23 7.26 3.23 3.23 3.19 3.24 3.17 3.24 3.21 3.20 3.22 3.24 7.17 7.07 7.05 6.96 6.96 6.99 6.93 6.92 6.91 6.92 3.07 3.02 2.97 2.95 2.97 3.00 2.92 2.90 2.90 2.90 7.63 7.59 7.61 7.61 7.68 7.77 7.70 7.63 7.61 7.63 3.53 3.54 3.53 3.60 3.69 3.78 3.69 3.61 3.60 3.61 7.70 7.62 7.51 7.55 7.52 7.62 7.55 7.35 7.36 7.41 11.11 10.98 10.83 10.73 10.64 10.43 10.59 10.37 10.22 10.09 3.41 3.36 3.32 3.18 3.12 2.81 3.04 3.02 2.86 2.68 Spread WAIR* on advances Spread WAIR* on advances Spread FY21 June FY22 July August September October November December January February March April WAIR* on advances Spread WAIR* WAIR* on on deposits advances Non-Bank FIs Spread All Banks Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank . *WAIR = Weighted Average Interest Rate and # Revised. 4.0 4.00 3.50 3.0 2.68 0.5 8 Agriculture Large Industry Service Apr'22 Feb'22 Mar'22 Jan'22 Dec'21 Nov'21 Oct'21 0.0 Sep'21 April'22 Mar'22 Feb'22 Jan'22 Dec'21 Nov'21 Oct'21 Sep'21 Aug'21 Jul'21 Jun'21 May'21 Apr'21 0.00 SME Aug'21 NBFIs 1.0 Jun'21 Banks Trends of sector-wise break down of interest rate spread of banks 1.5 May'21 0.50 2.0 Apr'21 1.00 Trends of interest rsate spreaed of banks and NBFIs 2.5 Jul'21 2.00 Percent 2.50 1.50 3.61 3.24 3.05 2.90 3.5 3.07 3.00 Percent The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks and NBFIs decreased to 3.07 percent and 2.68 percent respectively in April of FY22 as compared to 3.10 percent and 2.86 percent in March of FY22. The weighted average interest rate on deposits of all banks and NBFIs increased to 4.02 percent and 7.41 percent in April of FY22 compared to that of March of FY22.
11. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 5. Capital market developments The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of April 2022 decreased by 1.51 percent to 6655.67 compared to 6757.84 at the end of March 2022. Market capitalization decreased to Taka 536961.10 crore at the end of April 2022 from Taka 539415.50 crore at the end of March 2022. Annual capital market developments in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) (Taka in crore ) DSE Broad Turnover during Index (DSEX) the year Outstanding Stock (End of Calender Year) Enlisted issues Issued Capital and Debentures Market Capitalisation 2018 578.00 124293.70 387295.30 133363.82 5385.64 2019 587.00 129481.20 339551.10 113840.28 4452.93 2020 597.00 137527.90 448230.10 134981.23 5402.07 2021 617.00 146369.50 542196.40 353978.62 6756.66 Monthly capital market developments in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) End Month Enlisted issues Issued Capital and Debentures January'21 597.00 136894.10 February'21 600.00 137178.50 March'21 603.00 138462.20 April'21 604.00 138728.20 May'21 604.00 139244.30 June'21 609.00 139734.60 July'21 610.00 140036.00 August'21 611.00 141072.30 September'21 611.00 141105.70 October'21 612.00 145673.80 November'21 614.00 145853.00 December'21 617.00 146369.50 January'22 622.00 150510.30 February'22 622.00 150535.50 March'22 623.00 150679.40 April'22 623.00 151067.60 Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange, Dhaka. (Taka in crore) DSE Broad Market Turnover during Index Capitalisation the month (DSEX) 479028.60 33958.76 5649.86 465736.60 14449.04 5404.80 458902.30 14480.41 5278.16 470712.80 14377.27 5479.62 503868.80 31010.44 5990.99 514282.10 43508.98 6150.48 534404.80 23303.39 6425.26 557972.30 45118.69 6869.25 581543.10 50706.40 7329.04 559523.60 37017.27 7000.95 536494.70 26682.89 6703.26 542196.40 19365.08 6756.66 556982.30 31261.22 6926.29 543719.20 22099.85 6739.45 539415.50 18542.81 6757.84 536961.10 12105.13 6655.67 Total turnover at the end of April, 2022 was lower at Taka 12105.13 crore as compared to Taka 18542.81 crore at the end of March, 2022. Among three major sectors of the capital market: services & miscellaneous sector as a whole had 28.03 percent share of the total turnover; of which miscellaneous stocks had 12.43 percent share of the total turnover, as an individual industry. Maunfacturing sector as a whole had 47.80 percent share of the total turnover; of which engineering, pharmaceuticals & chemicals and textile industries took respectively (11.51 percent), (9.86 percent) & (9.33 percent) share of total turnover, as individual industries. Financial sector as a whole had 24.14 percent share of the total turnover; of which financial institutions, banks and insurance took respectively (9.20 percent), ( 8.11 percent) & ( 6.83 percent) share of total turnover, as individual industries. Individual industries’ shares of the total turnover are shown in the pie chart below. Share of sectoral turnover, April 2022 9 DSEX (RHS) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Mar'22 Apri'22 Jan'22 Feb'22 Dec'21 Nov'21 Oct'21 Sep'21 Aug'21 Jul'21 0 Jun'21 Textile 9.33% Food & Allied Product 5.11% Pharmaceuti cals & Chemicals 9.86% Capitalisation (LHS) Apr'21 Telecommu nication 1.60% Fuel &Power Mutual 4.46% Funds Cement Engineering 0.90% 3.07% 11.51% Financial Institutions 9.20% Insurance 6.83% May'21 Banks 8.11% billion taka Miscellaneo us 12.43% Others 17.58% Trends of market capitalization and indices of DSE 7000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
12. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 6. Public finance a. Government tax revenue collections Total tax revenue (NBR & Non-NBR) during July-March of FY22 stood at Taka 208964.13 crore which was higher by Taka 26903.26 crore or 14.78 percent against the collection of Taka 182060.87 crore during July-March of FY21. The collection of total tax revenue during July-March of FY22 was 60.39 percent of the fiscal year’s target of Taka 346000 crore. (Taka in crore) Tax revenue collections during FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 155518.72 171679.14 202312.94 (150000.00) (185000.00) (225000.00) 5642.46 6282.39 7041.07 Non-NBR Tax Revenue 1/ (5400.00) (7261.00) (7202.00) 161161.18 177961.53 209354.01 Total Tax Revenue (155400.00) (192261.00) (232202.00) Note:- Figures in brackets indicate the target of revenue collection. FY20 223892.42 (280000.00) 6031.90 (9600.00) 229924.32 (289600.00) NBR Tax Revenue FY21 218406.05 (300500.00) 3950.11 (12567.00) 222356.16 (313068.00) 259881.80 (301000.00) 4918.30 (15000.00) 264800.10 (316000.00) (Taka in crore) Non-NBR NBR Tax Revenue Customs duties VAT 1 2 Tax Income Tax others* 3 4 Total 1/ Revenue 5=(1+..+4) 6 Total Tax Revenue Collections 7=(5+6) Non-NBR NBR Tax Revenue Tax Total Tax Revenue Collections Customs duties VAT Income Tax others* Total 1 2 3 4 5=(1+..+4) 6 7=(5+6) 1/ Revenue July 1933.39 6777.31 4711.41 FY22P 1932.22 15354.33 217.21 15571.54 1987.76 6542.80 4116.05 2108.06 14754.67 328.31 15082.98 August 2556.05 8184.75 5242.96 3210.85 19194.61 418.54 19613.15 1979.39 6557.52 4662.82 2206.44 15406.17 238.93 15645.10 September 3230.27 9106.30 7917.00 3548.64 23802.21 215.60 24017.81 2316.65 7519.43 7103.89 2890.52 19830.49 327.88 20158.37 October 2723.41 8986.03 5669.14 3740.31 21118.89 509.62 21628.51 2207.19 7699.80 4804.72 3427.07 18138.78 295.73 18434.51 November 2876.28 9459.02 5971.02 3801.93 22108.25 554.86 22663.11 2336.53 7987.24 5265.30 3475.50 19064.57 309.71 19374.28 December 2907.56 9616.90 9859.65 5128.61 27512.72 582.98 28095.70 2349.64 8256.22 8260.45 4440.01 23306.32 418.15 23724.47 January 2953.04 9929.23 7036.32 4429.30 24347.89 1136.25 25484.14 2523.43 8518.71 6563.77 4026.06 21631.97 588.72 22220.69 February 3080.29 9677.34 6446.87 3815.06 23019.56 726.10 23745.66 2617.89 8362.57 5882.03 4076.28 20938.77 885.98 21824.75 March July-March 3189.63 9986.00 10252.53 4121.53 27549.69 594.83 28144.52 3142.97 8987.72 8907.43 4147.54 25185.66 410.07 25595.73 25449.92 81722.88 63106.90 33728.45 204008.15 4955.98 208964.13 21461.45 70432.01 55566.46 30797.48 178257.40 3803.47 182060.87 (+14.45) (+30.30) (+14.78) (+7.31) (+9.57) (+7.35) FY21 Source: National Board of Revenue and Office of the Controller General of Accounts, Bangladesh. P=Provisional, R=Revised Note:- Figures in brack ets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. NA = Not Available 1/Before FY22 Non-NBR tax revenue included narcotics & liquor duty, taxes on vehicles, road tax, land revenue and stamp duty(non judicial). According to iBAS++ from FY22 onwards Non-NBR tax revenue includes taxes on financial and capital transactions, narcotic and liquor duty, taxes on use of goods and on permission to use goods or perform activities and stamp duty. *Others include supplementary tax (local+import), Export, Excise tax, Turnover tax and Travel tax. 10
13. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank As per the latest data, NBR tax revenue collection during July-March of FY22 stood at Taka 204008.15 crore which was higher by Taka 25750.75 crore or 14.45 percent against the collection of Taka 178257.40 crore during July-March of FY21. This collection was 61.82 percent of the target set for FY22. Target for NBR tax revenue collection has been set at Taka 3,30,000.00 crore in the budget for FY22 Trends of growth of total tax revenue 75 16 50 12 25 percent 0 -25 14.45 8 7.31 4 0 -4 FY 21 FY 22 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. -8 Mar-22 Feb-22 Total Jan-22 Nov-21 Non-NBR Oct-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 NBR -75 Dec-21 -50 Jul. percent Trends of cumulative growth: NBR Tax Revenue 20 Aug. 100 b. Sale and repayments of national savings certificates (NSCs) (Taka in crore) Total sale of National Savings Certificates (NSCs) during July-March of FY22 stood at Taka 81326.73 crore which was 5.42 percent lower than that of July-March of FY21. FY (1) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Sale (2) 75134.74 78784.68 90342.39 67127.75 112188.24 Repayment (Principal) (3) 22717.26 32254.38 40402.91 52699.40 70228.70 Net sale 4=(2-3) 52417.48 46530.30 49939.48 14428.35 41959.54 Outstanding at the end of the year (5) 191236.22 237766.52 287706.00 302134.35 344093.89 Source:- Directorate of National Savings Bangladesh. (Taka in crore) Outstanding at Outstanding at Net sale Sale Net sale Repayment Repayment the end period the end period (Principal) (Principal) FY22 FY21 5365.01 3261.01 2104.00 346197.89 8705.62 4997.39 3708.24 305842.59 July 9891.48 6262.90 3628.58 349826.47 8852.29 5105.48 3746.81 309589.39 August 11349.16 8523.60 2825.56 352652.03 10387.62 6234.84 4152.78 313742.17 September 8722.71 7956.19 766.52 353418.54 9249.86 5215.33 4034.53 317776.71 October 8941.38 8240.29 701.09 354119.63 9547.62 6145.06 3402.57 321179.27 November 7362.34 7798.29 -435.96 353683.67 8233.17 6790.97 1442.20 322621.47 December 9966.02 7389.30 2576.72 356269.55 10644.86 5429.80 5215.06 327836.53 January 9457.43 6934.52 2522.91 358792.46 9606.56 5997.36 3609.20 331445.73 February 10271.20 8456.49 1814.71 360607.18 10762.54 6871.27 3891.28 335337.00 March 81326.73 64822.60 16504.13 360607.18 85990.15 52787.50 33202.66 335337.00 July-March (-5.42) (+22.80) (-50.29) (+7.54) (+59.49) (+23.58) (+196.38) (+12.19) Target for net sale of NSCs has been set at Taka 32,000.00 crore in the budget for FY22. Source:- Directorate of National Savings Bangladesh. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Months Sale 11
14. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Trends of cumulative growth of net sale of NSCs The net sale of NSCs during the same period decreased by Taka 16698.53 crore or 50.29 percent as compared to that of the corresponding period of FY21 and stood at 320 Taka 16504.13 crore; this net sale during July-March of FY22 was 51.58 percent of 200 the target set for the entire fiscal year 2022. Downward adjustment of interest rates 140 196.38 80 20 -40 Jun. May. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. 2022, which was higher by Taka 25270.18 crore or 7.54 percent compared to Taka Aug. -160 Jul. Outstanding amount of NSCs stood at Taka 360607.18 crore at the end of March -50.29 -100 Apr. growth of its net sale. FY 22 260 Percent along with various restrictions on purchase of NSCs might be the reason for lower FY 21 335337.00 crore at the end of March 2021. c. Government deficit financing (Taka in crore) FY Net borrowing of the Govt. from the banking system 1/ Net non-bank borrowing of the Govt. from the public 2/ Total domestic financing Net foreign financing 3/ Total financing Total financing as % of GDP@ at current market priceR Outstanding Domestic debt (end period) Outstanding domestic debt as % of GDP@ at current market priceR 1 2 3 4=(2+3) 5 6=(4+5) 7 8 9 FY16 22963.30 34166.55 38493.15 20213.70 58706.85 3.39 273461.37 15.78 FY17 -17464.80 53685.30 36220.50 20863.05 57083.55 2.89 309681.87 15.67 FY18 -1110.10 47492.60 46382.50 41157.80 87540.30 3.32 356064.37 13.49 FY19 18269.30 53928.68 72197.98 42084.37 114282.35 3.87 428262.35 14.51 FY20 66907.60 22986.27 89893.87 50999.13 140893.00 4.44 518156.22 16.34 FY21 39790.00 44280.64 84070.64 47402.71 131473.35 3.72 602226.86 17.06 July-March, FY21 -2991.00 35111.38 32120.38 29403.66 61524.04 1.74 550276.60 15.59 July-March, FY22* 13724.10 20059.87 33783.97 48155.58 81939.55 1.98 636010.83 15.36 Source: Bangladesh Bank, Ministry of Finance & Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). 1/: Excludes interest. 2/: Includes treasury bills & bonds (both in face value, Bangladesh Government Investment Sukuk included since December 2020) held by the non-bank financial institutions through secondary auctions, Net sale (NSCs) and excludes P.Bonds/income tax Bonds. 3/: Total foreign aid disbursement less amortization payment (converted using cummulative exchange rate of the corresponding period) , @: nominal GDP (base 2015-16=100) has been used. *Nominal GDP of FY22 from Budget at a glance converted to new base (2015-16=100) by following formulae {(FY16) (Base 2015-16) /(FY16) (Base 2005-06) × (FY22) (Base 200506) }. R = Calculated with BBS's revised GDP (base 2015-16) of each FYs. *nominal GDP of FY 22 from Budget at a glance converted to new base (2015-16=100) . 12
15. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank In the budget of FY22 target for government’s borrowing from the banking system (net) and non-banking system (net) for FY22 has been set at Taka 76452.00 crore and 37001.00 crore respectively. Government’s net borrowing from the banking system during July-March of FY22 was Taka 13724.10 crore whereas a net repayment of Government to banking system was Taka 2991.00 crore during July- March of FY21. Net borrowing from the non-banking sources stood significantly lower at Taka 20059.87 crore during July-March of FY22 as compared to that of Taka 35111.38 crore during July-March of FY21. 150 130 Deficit financing from different sources July-March, FY21 July-March, FY22 110 Percent Total deficit financing of the government stood higher at Taka 81939.55 crore during July-March of FY22 against Taka 61524.04 crore during July-March of FY21. Out of this, financing from the domestic sources stood higher at Taka 33783.97 crore during July-March of FY22 as compared to that of Taka 32120.38 crore during July- March of FY21. However, net foreign financing stood higher at Taka 48155.58 crore during the period under review compared to the same period of last year. 90 70 58.77 57.07 47.79 50 30 16.75 24.48 10 -10 -4.86 Banking system Non-Bank sources Foreign Sources However, total deficit financing during July-March of FY22 stood at 1.98 percent of GDP while it has been projected to be 6.10 percent of GDP for the whole year (FY22), according to the budget of FY22. 13
16. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 7. Consumer price index (CPI) and rate of inflation at national level (Base: FY2005-06 = 100) Twel ve-Month Average Basi s FY 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 July August September October November December January February March April General Index Inflation 258.65 5.47 273.26 5.65 288.44 5.56 Food Index Inflation 281.32 5.51 296.86 5.52 313.86 5.73 289.69 290.99 292.33 293.71 295.15 296.60 298.02 299.51 301.02 302.56 315.14 316.46 317.83 319.23 320.66 322.08 323.56 325.19 326.87 328.53 5.54 5.53 5.50 5.44 5.48 5.55 5.62 5.69 5.75 5.81 5.68 5.60 5.49 5.32 5.29 5.30 5.33 5.40 5.47 5.53 Poi nt to Poi nt Basi s Non-food Index Inflation 229.58 5.42 243.00 5.85 255.85 5.29 FY 2021-22 257.06 5.33 258.34 5.43 259.64 5.52 261.00 5.64 262.45 5.78 263.93 5.93 265.27 6.06 266.58 6.13 267.89 6.19 269.27 6.26 General Index Inflation 260.44 5.52 276.12 6.02 291.70 5.64 Food Index Inflation 279.65 5.40 297.95 6.54 314.19 5.45 Non-food Index Inflation 235.82 5.71 248.13 5.22 262.87 5.94 293.19 297.73 304.22 307.49 305.97 304.81 307.02 308.21 310.12 312.38 316.02 323.04 332.58 337.70 333.58 330.71 333.51 334.95 337.43 340.25 263.93 265.28 267.85 268.75 270.58 271.61 273.05 273.93 275.11 276.64 5.36 5.54 5.59 5.70 5.98 6.05 5.86 6.17 6.22 6.29 5.08 5.16 5.21 5.22 5.43 5.46 5.60 6.22 6.34 6.24 5.80 6.13 6.19 6.48 6.87 7.00 6.26 6.10 6.04 6.39 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. Trends of CPI inflation (Base: FY2005-06=100) 7.0 6.5 6.29 6.0 Percent The point to point general inflation went up by 0.07 percentage point, reaching 6.29 percent in April 2022 from 6.22 percent of March 2022. Rising of prices in the international markets due to Russia-Ukraine war might have fueled up inflation. 5.81 5.5 5.0 14 Apr'22 Mar'22 Feb'22 Jan'22 Dec'21 Nov'21 Oct'21 Sep'21 Aug'21 Jul'21 Jun'21 May'21 Apr'21 The point to point food inflation decreased 4.5 12 month average Point to point marginally to 6.24 percent in April 2022 from 4.0 6.34 percent of March 2022 while non food inflation significantly increased to 6.39 percent in April 2022 from 6.04 percent of March 2022. A larger increase in non food inflation outweighed the small decrease in food inflation causing point to point inflation to increase in April 2022. Even though, point to point food inflation decreased to 6.24 percent in April 2022 from 6.34 percent of March 2022, twelve month average food inflation increased to 5.53 percent in April 2022 from 5.47 percent of March 2022 bearing the evidence of increase in food prices in the last twelve months. Consequently, the twelve month average general inflation marginally increased to 5.81 percent in April 2022 from 5.75 percent in March 2022, reaching 0.51 percentage point higher than the target of 5.30 percent for FY22.
17. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 8. Industrial production i) Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry (Base: FY2005-06 = 100) Monthly Index Major Indus try Group General Wearing apparel Textile Food products Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical Non-metalic mineral products Leather and related products Chemicals and chemical products Bas ic metals Tobacco products Fabricated metal products except machinery Others * Weight (%) 100.00 34.84 14.07 10.84 8.23 7.12 4.40 3.67 3.15 2.92 2.32 8.44 Average Index July January , FY21 January , 2021 January , 463.61 461.39 271.68 578.23 1123.77 625.88 398.24 129.72 186.29 115.37 311.10 310.13 566.19 683.07 335.55 550.57 1276.41 625.80 405.51 126.64 219.72 127.07 344.18 362.61 2022 P July -January , FY22 433.38 424.89 253.86 575.51 1046.89 539.64 361.40 150.55 181.41 126.47 285.45 298.66 P 509.06 557.27 317.46 588.35 1150.11 558.84 495.55 124.43 213.74 115.96 340.97 327.30 Percentage change January, July-January, 2022 FY22 over over January, July-January, 2021 FY21 22.13 48.05 23.51 -4.78 13.58 -0.01 1.83 -2.37 17.95 10.14 10.63 16.92 17.46 31.16 25.05 2.23 9.86 3.56 37.12 -17.35 17.82 -8.31 19.45 9.59 Source: Bangaldesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). * Others means residual items. P = Provisional. Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Quantum index of small-scale manufacturing industry (Base: FY2005-06 = 100) 15 600 400 729.49 754.49 800 Trends of quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries 742.53 1000 200 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 The general index of small scale manufacturing industry increased by 1.61 percent to 754.49 during the second quarter of FY22 (October-December, 2021) compared to the same quarter of FY21 (OctoberDecember, 2020). The said index increased merely by 3.43 percent as compared to the index of 729.49 of the last quarter (July-September, 2021) of FY22. The index fell drastically in the fourth quarter of FY20 due to Covid-19 pandemic situation; yet pulled through in the first quarter of FY21 and stabilized in the last half of FY21 onwards. Percent ii) Aug Jul Percent The average general index of industrial production Trends of average quantum index (growth) of medium and large manufacturing (medium & large scale manufacturing) increased by industries 24.0 17.46 percent to 509.06 during July-January of FY22 20.0 over that of the corresponding period of FY21. 17.46 16.0 Sub-indices of major industry groups which increased during July-January of FY22 were: leather 12.0 and related products by 37.12 percent, wearing 8.0 3.61 apparel by 31.16 percent, textile by 25.05 percent, 4.0 fabricated metal products except machinery by 19.45 FY21 FY22 0.0 percent, basic metals by 17.82 percent, pharmaceuticals & medicinal chemical by 9.86 percent, non-metallic mineral products by 3.56 percent and food products by 2.23 percent. On the other hand, indices for chemicals and chemical products decreased by 17.35 percent and tobacco products by 8.31 percent during July-January of FY22 compared to the same period of the preceding year. FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
18. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 9. Food Situations (In lac metric ton) Food grain Imports Fis cal Year Production Target FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Actual Domes tic Production (Gros s ) 358.81 360.50 364.24 365.91 372.97 373.12 399.69 395.53 404.95 FY22RT Net Domes tic Production* Public** Private 320.90 324.52 324.03 316.04 336.38 336.67 338.69 348.24 ---- 8.56 3.34 3.34 3.93 13.91 5.44 4.36 10.52 13.33 21.37 49.40 42.06 54.30 83.83 52.90 60.02 56.50 ---- 356.56 360.58 360.03 351.16 373.76 374.08 376.32 386.93 ---- Particulars 1. Production (Aus), Aman, Boro & 2. Imports (Rice & Wheat) 3. Procurement (Rice: Boro & Aman, and Wheat) 4. Distribution (Rice & Wheat) 5. Outstanding Food Stock at end of April (Rice & Wheat) *** Total 29.93 52.74 45.40 58.23 97.74 58.34 64.38 67.02 13.33 Foodgrain Stock (Public)*** (End June) Public Public Domes tic Dis tribution Procurement 14.34 16.76 12.32 16.14 15.35 24.15 18.71 15.53 19.50 22.20 18.38 20.64 22.42 21.17 25.94 27.77 32.63 33.74 July-April, FY22 30.01 43.90 July-April, FY21 ---56.81 13.60 27.49 6.72 20.20 11.67 5.18 11.53 12.86 8.56 3.79 13.15 16.74 11.20 14.48 ---- Source : Bangladesh Food Situation Report, FPMU, Ministry of Food. Note : RT =Revised Target (import, procrument and distribution are revised), ---Data not B = Aman Boro, R = Revised, **=Only foravaiable. Aus= and *= After 10% deduction for seed, feed, waste etc., **Including food aid, ***Including transit. In FY21 actual gross domestic production of food grains was 386.93 lac metric tons against the target of 395.53 lac metric tons. Revised target of total production for FY22 has been set at 404.95 lac metric tons. Total production was 30.01 lac metric tons during July-April of FY22. Import of rice & wheat during JulyApril of FY22 was lower at 43.90 lac metric tons than 56.81 lac metric tons during July-April of FY21, while procurement and distribution of rice & wheat during July-April of FY22 was 13.60 lac metric tons and 27.49 lac metric tons respectively which were higher than 6.72 lac metric tons and 20.20 lac metric tons of previous fiscal year. Outstanding Stock of food grains also stood much higher at 11.67 lac metric tons at the end of 410 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 Trends of food grain import, public procurement and stock 404.95 July-April, FY22 386.93 July-April, FY21 56.81 43.90 80 60 40 13.60 FY22 FY21 FY20 FY19 FY18 FY17 FY16 FY15 Production Target Actual Domestic Production (Gross) 11.67 6.72 5.18 20 0 Public Domestic Procurement 16 Food Grain Imports Foodgrain Stock Lac metric ton Trends of food production (Target and Actual) FY14 Lac metric ton April of FY22 than 5.18 lac metric tons at the end of the same period of the preceding fiscal year.
19. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 10. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit a. Agricultural credit FY22 p 698.90 1424.29 1372.22 1359.68 1979.96 1782.39 2109.45 1653.34 2297.37 2199.17 2919.00 2432.63 2058.73 1418.96 1949.90 1649.95 1526.53 1770.64 1683.76 1510.86 18595.82 17201.90 (+13.62) (-0.17) July August September October November December January February March April July-April b. Non-farm rural credit (Taka in crore) Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Month Recovery FY21 1293.01 1989.38 1512.45 1336.64 1041.74 1782.41 1625.10 1871.23 1827.89 1903.85 2624.29 2673.24 1646.21 1509.92 1610.52 1064.57 1844.69 1865.34 1340.90 1235.17 16366.79 17231.75 (+18.94) (+25.35) (Taka in crore) Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery Month FY22 p 243.21 263.42 360.45 322.03 555.76 434.30 585.17 357.89 571.06 542.52 804.49 822.15 499.83 451.87 524.75 483.10 447.42 607.93 568.76 540.40 5160.90 4825.60 (+28.83) (+14.76) July August September October November December January February March April July-April FY21 215.72 435.00 186.39 320.44 478.15 517.80 424.53 421.58 487.80 518.53 4005.95 (+9.52) 289.52 396.10 483.58 308.40 365.23 691.49 455.25 371.55 417.19 426.48 4204.79 (+6.09) Source: Agricultural Credit Department, Bangladesh Bank. Figures in brack ets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional Programme d le ve l for total disburse me nt of agricultural cre dit and non-farm rural cre dit was Tk.28391.00 crore for FY22. Note:- Agricultural credit includes credit to Crops, Irrigation Equipment, Agri Equipment, Live-Stock & Poultry Firm, Fisheries, Grain Storage & Marketing. Nonfarm Rural Credit includes credit to Poverty Alleviation and Others. *Previously, Agriculture crdit data included the 'Others' head of Non-farm Rulral credit. Trends of agricultural credit disbursement 4000 Trends of non-farm rural credit credit disbursement 1200 3500 1000 in crore taka 200 FY22 Jun. Jul. May 0 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. 0 FY21 Apr. FY22 Nov. FY21 518.53 Oct. 500 400 Mar. 1340.90 Sep. 1000 568.76 600 Feb. 1500 800 Jan. 1683.76 2000 Dec 2500 Aug. in crore taka 3000 Banks disbursed a total of Taka 23756.72 crore of which Taka 18595.82 crore was for agricultural credit and Taka 5160.90 crore was for non-farm rural credit during July-April of FY22. Both the disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 13.62 percent and 28.83 percent respectively during July-April of FY22 compared to July-April of FY21. Banks’ recovery for agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit was Taka 17201.90 crore and 4825.60 crore respectively during July-April of FY22. The recovery of agriculture credit was lower by 0.17 percent whereas non-farm rural credit was higher by 14.76 percent during July-April of FY22 compared to the same period of previous fiscal year. c. Overdue and outstanding agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit (Taka in crore) P R FY22 End Month April Overdue Outstanding 6274.65 (+0.79) 49263.90 (+8.03) Overdue as % of outstanding 12.74 Overdue FY21 Outstanding 6225.75 (-0.39) 45600.85 (+4.08) Overdue as % of outstanding 13.65 Source: Agricultural Credit Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Figures in brack ets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional, R = Revised. The position of overdue agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit as percentage of total outstanding stood lower at 12.74 in April of FY22 than 13.65 in April of FY21. 17
20. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 11. Industrial and CMSME loans a. Industrial term loans (Taka in crore) Disbursement Period LSI 59654.85 FY20 FY21 July-September MSI 8139.33 Recovery SSCI 6462.83 Total LSI 74257.01 54117.66 MSI 7876.24 SSCI 7729.97 Total 69723.87 Disbursement of total industrial term 11786.09 2157.21 1512.98 15456.28 8606.72 1570.40 1145.25 11322.37 loans during October-December of (-34.03) (-3.40) (-19.14) (-29.65) (-47.60) (-27.05) (-48.10) (-45.53) FY22 increased by 13.78 percent to October-December 12703.52 2021.05 1774.65 16499.22 12340.19 1665.36 1532.82 15538.37 (-32.02) (-35.66) (-25.41) (-31.84) (-27.52) (-37.54) (-37.58) (-29.84) Taka 18772.59 crore as compared to January-March 13919.25 1782.30 1677.46 17379.01 13644.18 1374.17 1874.75 16893.10 Taka 16499.22 crore during October(+7.55) (+25.24) (+5.97) (+8.97) (+7.00) (-28.28) (-3.09) (+1.75) April-June 16216.85 1564.57 1649.31 19430.73 11822.35 1462.65 1449.87 14734.87 December of FY21. On the other (+59.60) (+16.60) (+162.03) (+60.16) (+49.40) (+28.17) (+27.94) (+44.63) hand, recovery of industrial term loans FY22 11856.37 1318.35 1659.52 14834.24 10252.24 1312.00 1415.23 12979.47 increased by 18.91 percent and stood July-September (+0.60) (-38.89) (+9.69) (-4.02) (+19.12) (-16.45) (+23.57) (+14.64) at Taka 18477.41 crore during October-December 14994.58 1575.22 2202.79 18772.59 14061.10 2305.08 2111.23 18477.41 (+18.03) (-22.06) (+24.13) (+13.78) (+13.95) (+38.41) (+37.74) (+18.91) October-December of FY22 against Overdue Outstanding Taka 15538.37 crore during the same End Period LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total period of the previous fiscal year. December, 2020 26878.25 9674.77 3209.73 39762.75 216010.11 38321.91 20979.07 275311.09 Outstanding amount of industrial term December, 2021 34767.16 10313.22 4273.86 49354.24 236149.70 48568.17 24200.58 308918.45 Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Bangladesh Bank. loans at the end of December, 2021 stood at Taka 308918.45 crore. At the same time the overdue of industrial term loans was Taka 49354.24 crore, which was 15.98 percent of the outstanding amount. b. Disbursement, recovery and outstanding situation of CMSME loans Disbursement of Cottage, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (CMSME) loans increased by 16.61 percent during October-December of FY22 compared to the same period of the preceding fiscal year. (Taka in crore) Banks/NBFIs Disbursement Recovery Outstanding of CMSME Loans Outstanding of Total Loans Disbursement Recovery Outstanding of CMSME Loans Outstanding of Total Loans Disbursement Recovery Outstanding of CMSME Loans October-December, FY21 End December of FY21 April-June, FY21 End June of FY21 Outstanding of CMSME loans was higher by 6.07 percent at the end of December of FY22 comapred to that of end December of FY21. Outstanding CMSME loans as percentage of total outstanding loans stood at 19.80 at the end of December of FY22 which was 20.69 of end December of FY21. The share of outstanding CMSME loans to total CMSME loans from different CMSME Loans Quarter October-December, FY22 State-owned Banks 4057.05 6172.69 Private Banks Foreign Banks Specialised Banks Non-Bank Financial Institutions Total 41513.48 38759.46 893.48 714.43 869.06 663.31 1647.91 1262.69 48980.98 47572.58 41468.89 181213.17 2524.59 2082.49 10364.30 237653.44 200978.89 828537.17 35768.68 30239.16 52979.21 1148503.11 3740.04 2309.64 35472.58 36487.31 286.96 1137.24 884.31 616.20 1404.84 1449.64 41788.73 42000.03 44592.14 183214.52 1941.72 2500.56 10825.88 243074.82 211233.46 860359.79 36008.72 31744.26 52695.98 1192042.21 4425.42 3649.66 48909.64 45095.70 1114.23 1366.41 832.24 1170.62 1837.06 1821.24 57118.60 53103.63 44265.17 191371.84 2362.70 2804.76 11277.62 252082.09 231831.69 916168.35 39453.68 32384.66 53117.76 1272956.15 % changes of Disbursement of CMSME loans during October-December, FY22 over October-December, FY21 +9.08 +17.82 +24.71 -4.24 +11.48 +16.61 Outstanding CMSME Loans as % of Total Outstanding loans during October-December, FY22 +19.09 +20.89 +5.99 +8.66 +21.23 +19.80 % changes of Outstanding of CMSME loans at the end of December of FY22 over December of FY21 +6.74 +5.61 -6.41 +34.68 +8.81 +6.07 End December of FY22 Outstanding of Total Loans Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Bangladesh Bank. Institution-wise share of outstanding CMSME Loans as of end December of FY22 categories of financial institutions as of Private Banks 75.92% end December of FY22 is shown in the pie diagram. State-owned Banks 17.56% 18 NBFIs 4.47% Specialised Banks 1.11% Foreign Banks 0.94%
21. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 12.Export a. Annual exports (USD in million) FY16 34257.18 (+9.77) FY17* 34655.90 (+1.16) FY18* 36668.17 (+5.81) FY19* 40535.04 (+10.55) FY21 *R 0.00 (+31.77) FY20* 33674.12 (-16.93) Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Bangladesh. b. Monthly exports Total merchandise commodity export during July-April of FY22 increased significantly by USD 11271.60 million or 35.14 percent to USD 43344.34 million from USD 32072.73 million during July-April of FY21. The higher growth in export might be attributed to strong rebound in demand for apparels in the USA and European economies which had been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The scenario of this can be seen from export earnings which were 20.53 percent higher than the strategic target set for the period. (US D in m illio n ) July FY22 P* 3473.43 FY21 R * 3910.92 A ugus t 3383.07 2967.16 September 4165.45 3018.76 October 4727.53 2947.80 November 4041.39 3078.95 December 4907.68 3309.86 January 4850.37 3436.79 February 4294.53 3192.08 March 4762.22 3076.03 A pril 4738.67 3134.38 43344.34 32072.73 (+35.14) (+8.74) Month July-April Ex p o rt ta rget is set USD 4 3 5 0 0 .0 0 millio n fo r FY2 2 . So urce : Ex p o rt Pro mo tio n Burea u (EPB), Ba ngla d esh. R=Revised d a ta ; P=Pro visio n a l. S tra teg ic Ta rg et fo r Ju lyAp ril, FY2 2 is US D3 5 9 6 3 .0 0 m illio n a n d stra teg ic ta rg et fo r Ap ril, 2 0 2 2 is US D 3 3 6 9 .0 0 m illio n . * Revised a cco rd in g to th e revised d efin itio n (p rim a ry co m m o d ities + m a n u fa ctu red co m m o d o ties) o f co m m o d ity exp o rts b y EPB. According to EPB data, merchandise commodity export in April of FY22 was higher by USD 1604.29 million or 51.18 percent and stood at USD 4738.67 million from USD 3134.38 million in April of FY21. Export earnings of April were 40.66 percent higher than the strategic target set for the month. Cumulative movements of export growth 40 Monthly movements of export performance 6000 35.14 30 in million USD 5000 8.74 0 FY 21 FY 22 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Jul. 19 Nov. 0 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. 3134.38 2000 1000 FY 22 -20 Aug. 3000 Oct. FY 21 4000 Sep. -10 4738.67 Aug. 10 Jul. Percent 20
22. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank c. Category-wise breakdown of exports (USD in million) Particulars July-April of FY22 July-April of FY21 Change in July-April of FY22 over July-April of FY21 In amount In percent 4111.04 +34.23 1. Woven garments 16119.99 12008.95 2. Knitwear 19242.59 13995.95 5246.64 +37.49 3. Home Textiles 1331.42 956.93 374.49 +39.13 4. Agricultural Products 1041.40 824.59 216.81 +26.29 5. Jute and Jute Goods 966.51 1035.67 -69.16 -6.68 6. Leather and Leather Products 1011.77 760.92 250.85 +32.97 7. Frozen and live fish 463.62 394.73 68.89 +17.45 8. Chemical Products 310.62 213.78 96.84 +45.30 Plastic Products 128.77 96.04 32.73 +34.08 Engineering products 674.11 435.74 238.37 +54.70 2053.54 1349.43 704.11 +52.18 43344.34 32072.73 11271.61 35.14 9. 10. 11. Others TOTAL Source: Export Promotion Bureau ( EPB) , Bangladesh. The upward trend in export for the last few months continued due mainly to increasing demand for readymade garments products. Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that export of readymade garments (knitwear and woven garments) increased by 35.98 percent contributing the lion’s share (81.59%) of the country’s export. Among all other products, export of engineering products (+54.70%), chemical products (+45.30%), home textiles (+39.13%), plastic products (+34.08%), leather and leather products (+32.97%), agricultural products (+26.29%), and frozen and live fish (+17.45%) increased during July-April of FY22 whereas, export of jute and jute goods decreased (-6.68%) during July-April of FY22 as compared to the same period of the preceding fiscal year. Category-wise share of export to total exports during July-April of FY22 Woven garments 37.19% Agricultural Products 2.40% Knitwear 44.39% Others 10.38% Leather and Leather Products 2.33% Jute and Jute Goods 2.23% Frozen and live fish 1.07% Category-wise share of export to total exports during July-April of FY21 Woven garments 37.44% Agricultural Products 2.57% 20 Knitwear 43.64% Others 9.52% Leather and Leather Products 2.37% Jute and Jute Goods 3.23% Frozen and live fish 1.23%
23. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 13. Imports a. Custom-based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening (USD in million) Total value of custom Custom based import (c&f) Import LCs settlement Import LCs opening R *R *R based import during Month FY20 FY21 FY21 FY21 65594.70 54784.70 57256.40 67037.42 July-March of FY22 July-June (+19.73) (-8.56) (+7.52) (+19.50) remarkably increased P R P# P# Month FY22 FY21 FY22 FY22 by USD 20268.80 July 5141.10 4228.00 4654.84 5163.82 6587.60 3806.00 6087.73 7349.26 million or 43.84 August September 6991.70 4652.50 6305.73 8043.97 percent to USD October 7110.80 4375.80 6361.35 7465.50 66498.70 million November 7854.60 4818.40 7169.08 8477.22 December 8436.70 5388.50 7837.41 8130.58 against USD January 8326.80 7235.30 7094.16 8348.01 46229.90 million February 8324.80 5564.20 7137.63 7095.82 7724.60 6161.20 7927.36 8287.59 during July-March of March July-March 66498.70 46229.90 60575.30 68361.78 FY21. Moreover, (+43.84) (+6.07) (+49.64) (+46.04) custom based import Source: National Board of Revenue (NBR), Bangladesh and Foreign Exchange Operations in March alone of Department (FEOD) of Bangladesh Bank . NA=Not Available. Note:- Figures in brack ets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the FY22 sharply preceding year. P = Provisional; R= Revised. 2. Customs based c&f data incorporated in MEI 2015 onwards the Monitoring approval ofSystem competent authority. #Data downloaded from *DataFebruary, downloaded from Onlinewith Import on 28.09.2021. increased by 25.37 since Online Import Monitoring System on 19.04.2022. percent as compared to the same month of the previous fiscal year. Import surged due to increase in apparel export orders after reopening of economies from covid-19 pandemic resulting from increased demand for import of raw materials and capital goods along with higher prices in global market. Settlement of import LCs during July-March of FY22 increased by 49.64 percent and stood at USD 60575.30 million. This increase was driven by petroleum & petroleum products (+87.12%), industrial raw material (+53.75%), intermediate goods (50.54%), capital machinery (+42.43%), consumer goods (+41.58%) and machinery for miscellaneous industries (+32.28%). Fresh opening of import LCs during July-March of FY22 increased by 46.04 percent and stood at USD 68361.78 million. This increase was mainly due to rise in opening of import LCs of petroleum & petroleum products (+81.96%), capital machinery (+49.72%), intermediate goods (+49.03%), industrial raw material (+48.19%), consumer goods (+27.50%) and machinery for miscellaneous industries (+24.81%). Trends of cumulative movements of custom based import 8000 FY22 -20 3000 2000 FY21 1000 FY22 Jun. Oct. Sep. Jul. 21 Aug. 0 Jun. May. Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. -40 May 6.07 4000 Apr. 0 6161.20 5000 Mar. 20 6000 Feb. 43.84 40 Percent in million USD 60 7724.60 7000 Jan. FY21 Dec. 80 Monthly movements of custom based import 9000 Nov. 100
24. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank b. Item-wise fresh opening and settlement of import LCs# (USD in million) Outstanding Opening Settlement A. Consumer goods 7485.45 6864.30 2020.81 5870.97 B. Intermediate goods 6355.08 5351.76 1908.09 4264.17 C. Industrial raw materials 25311.04 22131.74 9402.24 17079.56 D. Capital machinery 4977.34 3812.72 3172.43 3324.35 E. Machinery for misc. inds. 3399.45 3109.51 1174.92 2723.69 F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. 5464.49 5461.28 681.43 3003.18 15368.95 13843.99 12504.16 10544.53 G. Others* Total 68361.78 60575.30 30864.08 46810.44 of which back to back 9940.13 8635.27 4317.10 6447.57 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department (FEOD), Bangladesh Bank. Settlement Opening Opening Settlement Items % changes in JulyMarch, FY22 over July-March, FY21 July-March, FY21 Outstanding July-March, FY22 4848.42 3555.02 14394.64 2676.93 2350.78 2918.62 9736.80 40481.20 5396.72 456.69 265.99 1126.82 779.09 145.25 75.08 9174.97 12023.90 389.94 27.50 49.03 48.19 49.72 24.81 81.96 45.75 46.04 54.17 41.58 50.54 53.75 42.43 32.28 87.12 42.18 49.64 60.01 P = Provisional; Opening = 'Fresh opening of import LCs', Settlement = 'Settlement of import LCs' and Outstanding = 'Outstanding LCs at the end period'. #Data downloaded from Online Import Monitoring System on 19.04.2022. Item wise share of LCs opening during July-March of FY22 and July-March of FY21 are shown in the following pie diagrams. Item-wise detailed data of fresh opening and settlement of import LCs during July-March of FY22 and July-March of FY21 are also given in the appendix. Item-wise share of LC opening JulyMachinery March of FY22 for misc. inds. 4.97% Capital machinery 7.28% Industrial raw materials 37.03% Petroleum & petro.prodts . 7.99% Intermediate goods 9.30% Item-wise share of LC opening JulyMarch of FY21 Industrial Capital raw materials Intermediate 36.49% goods 9.11% Others 22.48% Consumer goods 10.95% Consumer goods 12.54% machinery 7.10% Machinery for misc. inds. 5.82% Others 22.53% Petroleum & petro.prodts 6.42% c. Projection of opening import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorized dealer banks Month Opening of import LCs May'22 June'22 July'22 May-July, 2022 5964.43 6130.95 6109.30 18204.68 (USD in million) Probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs 1025.99 956.93 869.88 2852.80 Source: All authorized dealer bank s, compiled by Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Bangladesh Bank . Projection of opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs are USD 18204.68 million and USD 2852.80 million respectively during May-July of FY22. This liability of back to back LCs is 49.06 percent of foreign currency holdings (Nostro account net balance+Investment in OBU+FC balances with Bangladesh Bank) of AD banks as on May 19, 2022. 22
25. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 14.Workers’ remittances (USD in million) FY19 FY20 16419.63 (+9.60) 18205.01 (+10.87) FY21R 24777.71 (+36.10) Month July FY22P 1871.49 FY21R 2598.21 Augus t 1810.10 1963.94 September 1726.71 2151.05 October 1646.87 2102.16 November 1553.70 2078.74 December 1630.66 2050.65 January 1704.53 1961.91 February 1494.47 1780.59 March 1859.73 1910.98 April 2009.49 2067.64 17307.75 (-16.25) 20665.87 (+39.00) July-April S ou rce : St at ist ics Depart ment , Bangladesh Bank. Not e:- Figures in bracket s indicat e percent age changes over t he same period of t he previous year. P = P rovisional; R = Revised. Receipts of workers’ remittances during July-April of FY22 decreased substantially by USD 3358.12 million or 16.25 percent to USD 17307.75 million against USD 20665.87 million during July-April of FY21. It is observed that, the inflow of remittances in April 2022 was the highest in single month during the current fiscal year reaching 2009.49 million may be due to Eid-Ul-Fitar festival. The underlying reasons for the lower remittance inflow during this fiscal year are; many Bangladeshi migrants lost their jobs, some migrants were laid off by their companies; besides, many others who returned home during covid-19 still couldn’t resettle. Also, after the resumption of international flights many migrants might have sent their hard earned money through informal channels which is not reflected in official remittance data. This might be another important reason for declining remittances. Monthly movements of workers' remittance inflow 6000 60 5000 50 FY 22 Percent 4000 3000 2067.64 39.00 40 30 20 FY 21 FY 22 10 2000 0 2009.49 1000 -10 -16.25 -20 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jul. 23 Aug. -30 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. 0 Jul. in million USD FY 21 Trends of cumulative growth of workers' remittance inflow 70
26. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 15. Foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks a. Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank (BB) Gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 44017.55 million (with ACU liability of USD 2237.41 million) as of end April, 2022, which was USD 44950.42 million (with ACU liability of USD 1747.02 million) as of end April, 2021 and 44146.78 million (with ACU liability of USD 1303.10 million) as of end March, 2022. However, the foreign exchange reserves (less ACU liability) in April, 2022 is sufficient to pay import liability of 5.84 months, considering the average of the previous 12 months’ (April, 2021-March, 2022) import payments. (US D in m illio n) Ju n e , 2020 Ju n e , 2021 32716.51 36037.03 46391.44 (-0.69) (+10.15) (+28.73) 50 Month / Year FY22P FY21 48 July 45842.20 37288.20 August 48059.99 39040.14 Sep tember 46199.80 39313.98 October 46459.27 41005.79 November 44881.14 46153.93 44951.22 45947.76 44146.78 44017.55 41269.22 43166.52 42862.96 44020.25 43440.79 44950.42 Gross FX reserve Reserve covers months of import (RHS) 12.00 10.50 45 9.00 43 40 7.50 38 6.00 35 4.50 33 Apr.22 Mar.22 Jan.22 Feb.22 Dec.21 Nov.21 Sep.21 Oct.21 Aug.21 Jun.21 3.00 July.21 30 Apr.21 December January February M arch Ap ril Trends of FX reserves of BB May.21 B. O u tstan di n g stock at th e e n d of th e m on th Ju n e , 2019 USD in billion A. O u tstan di n g stock at th e e n d of th e ye ar S o u rc e : A c c o unts & B udge ting De partm e nt, B anglade s h B ank . P = P ro v is io nal b. Gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks (CB)* Gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks stood lower at USD 5195.68 million as of end April, 2022 than USD 5653.78 million as of end April, 2021. I (USD in million) Ju n e , 2020 Ju n e , 2021 4191.18 4584.88 5518.28 7.00 (+28.37) (+9.39) (+20.36) 6.40 FY21 5.80 November 5577.62 4890.69 December 5396.30 4993.41 January 4923.69 5117.12 February 4616.97 5118.19 M arch 4985.74 5294.74 Ap ril 5195.68 5653.78 Source: Foreign Exchange Policy Departm ent, Bangladesh Bank. P= Provisional * Debit balance in Nostro A/C + Investm ent in OBU. 24 4.00 3.40 2.80 2.20 Apr.22 5011.62 Mar.22 5968.69 Jan.22 October 4.60 Feb.22 5135.53 Dec.21 5843.82 Nov.21 Sep tember 5.20 Sep.21 5087.13 Oct.21 5958.00 Aug.21 August Jun.21 4867.03 July.21 6007.35 FY22 Apr.21 P Month / Year July Trends of FX balance held by CBs May.21 B. O u tstan di n g stock at th e e n d of th e m on th Ju n e , 2019 billion USD A. O u tstan di n g stock at th e e n d of th e ye ar
27. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 16. Foreign aid (USD in million) Payment (Principal) FY21 July-June 16.18 6963.42 6979.60 1390.07 (-4.24) (-4.02) (+10.62) FY22P July 0.00 328.66 328.66 138.00 August 0.00 814.27 814.27 73.96 September 1.84 795.14 796.98 211.81 October 0.00 688.14 688.14 126.82 November 0.00 463.30 463.30 114.70 December 0.69 1084.60 1085.29 112.84 January 0.00 514.31 514.31 130.19 February 0.00 1208.68 1208.68 79.53 March 0.00 897.20 897.20 181.74 July-March 2.53 6794.30 6796.83 1169.61 (+51.20) (+50.82) (+12.51) Source: Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance. P = Provisional. Month Food Aid Project Aid Total Aid Food Aid Project Aid 5589.53 (-7.08) 0.00 7271.97 (+17.19) 190.66 740.31 585.17 561.31 348.59 972.45 384.12 1129.14 715.46 5627.22 (+62.30) 0.00 0.00 6.15 0.00 0.00 6.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.94 232.31 725.85 505.20 267.61 356.24 944.49 364.93 380.85 716.23 4493.72 (+7.83) Net Foreign Aid Total Aid Payment (Principal) FY20 7271.97 1256.59 (+17.09) (+4.52) FY21 232.31 117.07 725.85 82.05 511.35 177.00 267.61 110.86 356.24 85.44 951.28 107.30 364.93 135.94 380.85 64.49 716.23 159.36 4506.66 1039.52 (+8.20) (+8.33) Net Foreign Aid 6015.39 (+20.10) 115.24 643.80 334.34 156.75 270.80 843.97 229.00 316.36 556.88 3467.14 (+8.16) Bangladesh received a total foreign aid of USD 8400 Foreign Aid 6796.83 million during July-March of FY22 7200 which was higher by USD 2290.17 million or 2400 USD 5627.22 million during July-March of FY22 which was 62.30 percent higher as 1200 compared to USD 2160.08 million during July- 0 Total Aid 3467.14 3600 5627.22 4800 4506.66 million, the net receipts of foreign aid stood at 6796.83 After principal repayment of USD 1169.61 July-March of FY21 6000 USD in million 50.82 percent compared to July-March of FY21. July-March of FY22 Net Aid March of FY21. 17. Exchange rate movements (Taka/USD) Month Month Avg.1/ Month End3/ (Rupee/USD) Month Avg.1/ FY20 June 84.9183 FY21 84.9000 84.8148 FY21 July August September October November December January February March April 84.8120 84.8390 84.8025 84.8023 84.8005 84.8003 84.8011 84.8007 84.8009 84.8010 Month End3/ 84.8054 FY22 84.8000 84.8053 84.8087 84.8000 84.8000 84.8007 84.8006 84.8000 84.8007 84.8000 84.8037 84.9523 85.2587 85.6121 85.7750 85.8000 85.9538 86.0000 86.0593 86.2298 As per the data of Statistics Department of Bangladesh Bank Foreign Exchange Dealer's Association (BAFEDA) 3/ . 25 1/, 84.8024 85.2000 85.5000 85.6582 85.8000 85.8000 86.0000 86.0000 86.2000 86.4500 Month End2/ Month End2/ FY20 75.5270 FY21 74.7722 73.5951 73.7978 73.9732 73.7983 73.0536 72.9519 73.0408 73.5047 74.0573 FY21 74.3456 FY22 74.3871 73.1536 74.2551 74.7858 75.0885 74.3025 74.9674 75.4882 75.8071 76.4242 Financial Benchmark India Private Ltd 2/ & Bangladesh
28. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka started to 88.00 depreciate from mid of August and stood at BDT 87.00 86.4500 per USD at the end of April 2022, 86.00 BDT/USD depreciating by 1.90 percent as compared to its level 85.00 at the end of June 2021. The lower inflow of 84.00 remittances and higher import payments created 83.00 pressure on the foreign reserve which led to a 80.00 depreciation of the BDT. To stabilize the market, 78.00 Bangladesh Bank intervened in the foreign exchange 76.00 market with a total sale of USD 4917.00 million 74.00 during July-April of FY22. However, net sale during 72.00 INR/USD 70.00 July-April of FY22 was USD 4707.00 million. 68.00 Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated by 2.72 percent against the US dollar at the end of April 2022 as 1.18 compared to their levels of end June 2021. As per the 1.14 1.16 1.12 latest available data, graphical presentations of reached 116.38 in April, 2022 from 115.49 in March, 2022 indicating requirement of some depreciation. 26 17-05-2022 13-04-2022 30-04-2022 115.49 116.38 1.50 0.50 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 0.00 Sep-21 Jun-21 Mar-21 Dec-20 Sep-19 60 Sep-20 70 Jun-20 Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) index 2.50 1.19 1.00 NEER REER Relative Price Index (RPI) Mar-20 80 long time, staying over 100. The REER index 2.00 90 96.87 in March, 2022, remaining still below 100. The however, remained in an appreciated position for a 27-03-2022 100 Jun-19 in April, 2022 increased to 97.72 from the index of 110 3.00 96.87 97.72 120 The Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) index 10-03-2022 Effective Exchange Rate Indices (Base:2015-16=100) 130 Dec-19 recent time against Indian Rupee (INR). 21-02-2022 vis-a-vis INR are shown in the following charts. 04-02-2022 01-01-2022 USD, Indian Rupee (INR) vis-a-vis USD and BDT 18-01-2022 1.08 exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) vis-a-vis Bangladesh Taka (BDT) has been appreciating in the BDT/INR 1.10
29. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank 18. Balance of payments (BOP) (USD in million) Particulars July-March of FY22P July-March of FY21R Trade balance -24907 -15218 Exports f.o.b(including EPZ) 36617 27549 Imports f.o.b(including EPZ) 61524 42767 Services -2806 -1992 Credit 7083 5448 Debit 9889 7440 -2159 -2391 Primary income Credit 257 135 Debit 2416 2526 Of which:Official interest payment Secondary income Official transfers 688 711 15800 19046 15 22 15785 15299 19024 18598 -14072 -555 Capital account 166 125 Capital transfers 166 125 Financial account 11343 7950 i) Foreign direct investment(net)* 1677 1142 ii) Portfolio investment (net) -110 -228 Private transfers of which : Workers' remittances ( current a/c. portion) Current account balance of which : Workers' remittances ( financial a/c. portion) 86 174 9776 7036 Medium and long-term (MLT) loans 6616 4233 MLT amortization payments 1170 1067 Other long-term loans (net) 729 994 Other short-term loans (net) 2011 1003 iii) Other investment(net) Trade credit (net) DMBs & NBDCs(net) Assets 180 2885 1410 -1012 119 225 Liabilities 1529 -787 Errors and omissions -534 -530 Overall balance -3097 6990 Reserve assets 3097 -6990 Bangladesh Bank(net) 3097 -6990 Assets -1994 7055 Liabilities 1103 65 Source :Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Both of exports and imports are compiled on the basis of customs data. P=Provisional; R = Revised. * FDI is calculated on net basis by deducting disinvestment, repayments of loans & loss. Balance of Payments 6990 10000 4000 USD in million Trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 24907 million during July-March of FY22. Also, current account balance incurred deficit and stood at USD 14072 million during July-March of FY22; this deficit in current account balance was mainly due to a larger deficit in the balances of trade and services accounts and lower wage earners’ remittances. The overall balance recorded a deficit of USD 3097 million during July-March of FY22 against surplus of USD 6990 million during July-March of FY21. -2000 -555 -8000 -3097 -14000 -20000 -26000 -15218 -14072 -24907 -32000 Trade Balance July-March of FY22 27 Current Account Balance Overall Balance July-March of FY21
30. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Appendix Break-up of fresh opening and settlement of import LCs (USD in million ) July-March, FY22 Items A. Consumer goods Rice and wheat Sugar and salt Milk food Edible oil (refined) All kinds of fruits Pulses Onion Spices Second hand clothings Drugs and medicines(finished) Others B. Intermediate goods Coal Cement Clinker & limestone B. P. sheet Tin plate Scrap Vessels Iron and steel scrap Non-ferrous metal Paper and paper board Others C. Industrial raw materials Edible oil (Crude) Seeds Textile fabrics (B/B & others) Pharmaceutical raw materials Raw cotton Cotton yarn Copra Synthetic fibre & yarn Chemicals & chem. products Percentage changes in July-March, FY22 over July-March, FY21 July-March, FY21 7485.45 2067.74 890.54 287.36 1234.45 437.11 179.33 145.64 201.43 1.73 2020.81 619.90 214.65 138.24 306.20 116.87 46.31 19.79 46.54 0.23 6864.30 1993.21 783.00 261.09 1061.54 348.43 207.60 137.57 198.36 2.09 5870.97 1882.89 509.10 259.23 688.60 469.72 184.07 152.11 282.04 2.89 456.69 250.82 16.54 7.03 14.26 41.24 5.65 27.27 5.83 0.14 4848.42 1223.32 531.32 226.33 630.67 364.53 196.17 130.57 306.23 1.93 27.50 9.82 74.92 10.85 79.27 -6.94 -2.57 -4.26 -28.58 --- Settleme nt 41.58 62.93 47.37 15.36 68.32 -4.42 5.83 5.36 -35.23 8.18 545.84 18.34 559.57 81.84 6.95 75.43 566.96 641.80 1494.29 6355.08 705.34 186.00 960.83 109.02 9.09 931.56 1595.45 241.96 566.51 1049.33 493.75 1908.09 175.40 67.80 337.18 31.25 2.14 35.67 536.13 43.12 378.55 300.86 1311.83 5351.76 510.01 162.85 790.16 94.97 9.13 980.67 1421.38 269.42 242.92 870.27 1358.48 4264.17 301.37 144.14 818.46 84.13 5.63 655.91 1097.90 165.74 250.98 739.91 80.98 265.99 9.08 16.02 51.23 4.97 0.15 5.54 77.35 17.52 35.16 48.97 1161.90 3555.02 250.53 116.75 666.59 103.17 6.16 637.01 882.06 113.18 212.81 566.77 10.00 49.03 134.05 29.04 17.39 29.59 61.46 42.02 45.32 45.99 125.72 41.82 12.90 50.54 103.57 39.48 18.54 -7.95 48.27 53.95 61.14 138.05 14.15 53.55 25311.04 9402.24 22131.74 17079.56 1126.82 14394.64 48.19 53.75 392.66 566.98 85.37 257.17 307.56 545.80 350.23 439.49 7.81 8.35 393.49 406.55 12.12 29.01 -21.84 34.25 9666.02 3947.67 8185.38 6745.01 494.94 5618.34 43.31 45.69 919.24 279.22 839.46 764.46 21.72 806.86 20.25 4.04 3105.25 2773.89 456.67 1320.56 1316.48 1188.05 153.01 483.53 2481.22 2455.39 387.14 1178.03 2327.07 1394.15 384.42 730.58 158.04 93.05 23.00 42.79 1752.52 1088.85 271.02 614.09 33.44 98.97 --80.75 41.58 125.50 42.84 91.83 6109.77 1691.73 5751.77 3944.15 277.13 3442.92 54.91 67.06 Opening Outstanding Settlement Opening Outstanding Settlement Opening Opening = 'Fresh opening of import LCs', Settlement = 'Settlement of import LCs' and Outstanding = 'Outstanding LCs at the end period'. (continued on page-29) 28
31. Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update (May, 2022) Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Break-up of fresh opening and settlement of import LCs (USD in million ) Items July-March, FY22 July-March, FY21 Opening Outstanding Settlement Opening Outstanding D. Capital machinery 4977.34 3172.43 3812.72 3324.35 779.09 Textile machinery 495.63 416.37 151.36 140.06 14.65 Leather / tannery 14.96 7.34 9.93 12.19 1.90 Jute industry 18.76 15.23 10.84 17.33 0.41 Garment industry 610.05 390.49 449.91 299.42 34.56 Pharmaceutical industry 150.25 89.19 138.65 144.58 36.95 Packing industry 12.57 7.25 7.92 9.52 0.42 Other industry 3675.10 2246.56 3044.12 2701.25 690.19 E. Machinery for misc. inds. 3399.45 1174.92 3109.51 2723.69 145.25 Other machineries 96.44 33.91 84.32 102.21 3.20 Marine diesel engine 3.79 3.55 1.65 16.17 13.07 Computer & its accessories 376.21 140.80 429.05 292.37 22.59 Motor vehicle & motorcycle parts 139.46 26.57 187.45 208.21 5.11 Bicycle parts 103.45 17.43 112.19 96.08 10.04 Other iron and steel products 230.14 73.97 193.41 188.82 10.71 Motor vehicles 567.75 134.44 523.02 493.91 17.78 Other electronics components 113.76 37.65 98.79 118.84 5.96 Tractors & power tiller 38.18 15.18 40.89 51.88 5.08 Others 1730.27 691.42 1438.73 1155.20 51.72 F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. 5464.49 681.43 5461.28 3003.18 75.08 Crude 945.93 43.74 1004.13 526.92 6.04 Refined 4518.56 637.68 4457.15 2476.26 69.04 G. Others 15368.95 11999.44 10248.07 7914.82 9202.61 Commercial sector 3432.51 1059.88 3096.45 2899.53 278.10 Industrial sector 11936.44 10939.56 7151.61 5015.30 8924.51 Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant --7166.80 814.30 --8292.18 Total 68361.78 30864.08 60575.30 46810.44 12023.90 of which back to back 9940.13 4317.10 8635.27 6447.57 389.94 Percentage changes in July-March, FY22 over July-March, FY21 Settlement Opening Settlement 2676.93 49.72 42.43 130.83 253.88 15.69 11.16 22.75 -11.05 9.49 8.30 14.16 325.47 103.75 38.23 91.26 3.92 51.93 9.07 32.06 -12.62 2099.65 36.05 44.98 2350.78 24.81 32.28 106.84 -5.64 -21.08 10.85 -76.59 -84.77 239.19 28.67 79.38 157.01 -33.02 19.39 77.67 7.68 44.43 174.85 21.88 10.62 435.23 14.95 20.17 104.18 -4.28 -5.18 48.10 -26.41 -14.98 996.86 49.78 44.33 2918.62 81.96 87.12 547.30 79.52 83.47 2371.32 82.48 87.96 7157.68 94.18 43.18 2489.96 18.38 24.36 4667.72 138.00 53.21 847.18 ---3.88 40481.20 46.04 49.64 5396.72 54.17 60.01 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department(FEOD), Bangladesh Bank. Opening = 'Fresh opening of import LCs', Settlement = 'Settlement of import LCs' and Outstanding = 'Outstanding LCs at the end period'. Data downloaded from Online Import Monitoring System on 19.04.2022. 29