Turkey: Survey of Market Participants - August 2022

Transcription

1. SURVEY OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS DATA GOVERNANCE AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT SURVEYS AND INDICES DIVISION AUGUST 2022
2. Survey of Market Participants | August 2022 Survey of Market Participants Table 1: Participants Participants Responses Real Sector 8 Business Organizations 1 Holdings 7 Financial Sector 31 Banks 24 Non-Bank Financial Sector 7 Professionals 2 Total 41 Annual Inflation Expectations Graph 1: Annual CPI Inflation Expectations (%) End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 08.22 07.22 06.22 05.22 04.22 03.22 02.22 01.22 12.21 11.21 10.21 09.21 08.21 5 1
3. 2 Survey of Market Participants | August 2022 Distributions of 12 and 24 Month Ahead Inflation Expectations 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 2: Probability Distribution of 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 3: Distribution of Point Estimates for 12Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 <30.00 30.00-36.99 37.00-43.99 44.00-50.99 ≥ 51.00 0 <30.00 30.00-36.99 37.00-43.99 44.00-50.99 ≥ 51.00 24-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 5: Distribution of Point Estimates for 24Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) Graph 4: Probability Distribution of 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 <14.00 14.00-17.99 18.00-21.99 22.00-25.99 ≥ 26.00 0 <14.00 14.00-17.99 18.00-21.99 22.00-25.99 ≥ 26.00 (*) Detailed information related to the probability estimation and point estimation can be found on the CBRT’s website under the headings "Statistics / Tendency Surveys / Survey of Market Participants / Metadata".
4. Survey of Market Participants | August 2022 3 Interest Rate Expectations Graph 6: BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (%) Graph 7: One-week CBRT Repo Aution Interest Rate (%) BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (End of the Current Month) Jul-22 25 Aug-22 24 20 20 16 15 12 10 8 5 4 12-Month Ahead 3-Month Ahead Current Month 08.22 07.22 06.22 05.22 04.22 03.22 02.22 01.22 12.21 11.21 10.21 09.21 Exchange Rate Expectations Graph 8: US Dollar Rate Expectations ($/TL) End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 08.22 07.22 06.22 05.22 04.22 03.22 02.22 01.22 12.21 11.21 10.21 09.21 6.0 08.21 08.21 24-Month Ahead 0 0
5. 4 Survey of Market Participants | August 2022 GDP Growth Rate Expectations Graph 10: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2023 (%) 1.0 0.0 0.0 12.22 1.0 11.22 2.0 10.22 2.0 09.22 3.0 08.22 3.0 07.22 4.0 06.22 4.0 05.22 5.0 04.22 5.0 03.22 6.0 02.22 6.0 01.22 08.22 07.22 06.22 05.22 04.22 03.22 02.22 01.22 12.21 11.21 10.21 09.21 08.21 Graph 9: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2022 (%) The Survey of Market Participants is conducted on a monthly basis with a panel of 57 participants consisting of 44 experts from the financial sector, 8 experts from the real sector and 5 professionals. Expectations denote the modified mean for each variable. The methodology and results are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu “Statistics/ Tendency Surveys/ Survey of Market Participants”. Historical results are also released under the menu “Statistics/ Statistical Data (EDDS)/ Surveys”. The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye.
6. Survey of Market Participants | August 2022 5 Survey of Market Participants Aggregated Results (*) Monthly Inflation What is your expectation of the CPI? (%) Annual Inflation Current Month Next Month 2nd Month Ahead 2.57 3.28 3.67 End of the Year (January-December) End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months End of the Next 5 Years 70.60 41.99 24.35 10.72 End of the Current Month End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months 18.0000 19.6480 22.0257 What is your expectation of the US Dollar rate in the interbank foreign exchange market? (Turkish Lira-TRY) (Please indicate in four decimals) Next Year Current Year (January-December) (January-December) -39.3 What is your expectation of the annual current account balance? ( (+)Surplus, (-)Deficit ) ($ Billion) -25.5 Next Year Current Year (January-December) (January-December) 3.7 What is your expectation of the GDP growth rate? ( (+) Increase, (-) Decrease ) (%) 3.8 End of the Current Month 14.00 What is your expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market overnight interest rate? (%) What is your expectation of one-week CBRT repo auction interest rate? (%) (*) The figures denote the modified means. End of the Current Month 3-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead 14.00 14.00 16.50 19.90