Turkey: Monthly Price Developments - February 2017

Transcription

1. FEBRUARY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS MARCH 6 , 2017 SUMMARY... In February, consumer prices rose by 0.81 percent, and annual consumer inflation increased by 0.91 points to 10.13 percent. Annual food inflation maintained its uptrend, and the effects of the exchange rate spilled over into the whole, particularly the core goods and energy groups. Despite temporary tax reductions, the core goods inflation that soared amid the cumulative effects of the depreciation in the Turkish lira pushed both the annual inflation and the underlying trend of core indicators upward. ... EVALUATIONS ... In February, consumer prices rose by 0.81 percent, and annual consumer inflation increased by 0.91 points to 10.13 percent. The annual rate of change in the B and C indices increased by 0.73 and 0.82 points month-on-month to 8.27 and 8.56 percent, respectively. The contributions of sub-groups to annual CPI inflation reveal a month-on-month increase of 0.42, 0.30 and 0.22 points from the core goods, energy and food groups, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution from the services, alcohol and tobacco groups remained almost unchanged. (Annual % Change) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 CPI 5 (Annual % Change) 11 D CPI 5 C 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 4 02.15 4 B The underlying trend of inflation based on the seasonally-adjusted data in 3-month-averages reveals a sustained deterioration in core inflation indicators. Despite being limited by tax reductions in part, this was driven by the upsurge in the underlying trend of core goods due to the depreciated Turkish lira. 16 (Seasonally adjusted, Annualized 3-Month-Average % Change) (Seasonally adjusted, Annualized 3-Month-Average % Change) 20 Services 16 12 Core Goods 12 8 8 4 B 4 C 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 02.15 0 0 Prices of services rose by 0.68 percent in February, while the group’s annual inflation inched up by 0.10 points to 8.37 percent. Annual inflation increased in transport and communication services, but remained relatively flat in other services. On the transport services front, prices of highway and airway transport services increased, further parallel to the cumulative increase in I
2. FEBRUARY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS MARCH 6 , 2017 fuel prices. In the restaurants-hotels group, prices rose in catering services, but receded in accommodation services, keeping the annual accommodation services inflation low (0.12 percent). On the other hand, annual inflation in rents and other services remained high, and the course of other services was mainly shaped by pre-school and elementary school education (12.31 percent) and health services (10.67 percent). (Annual % Change) (Annual % Change) 12 Core Goods Services 18 9 Other Services Communication S. Transport S. Rent Restaurants & Hotels 15 12 6 9 6 3 3 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 02.15 0 0 Annual core goods inflation climbed by 1.65 points to 8.83 percent in February. Effects of the depreciated Turkish lira grew apparent across sub-groups. The February sale in clothing prices remained well below past averages. Pioneered by soaring prices of automobiles (4.82 percent) as well as electrical and non-electrical devices (1.39 percent), durable goods saw an uptick in prices, whereas the temporary tax reductions in the furniture and white goods in February pulled prices down in these items (by -4.86 and -1.47 percent, respectively). Tax reductions emerged partly in furniture prices and slightly in prices of white goods. Moreover, core goods excluding clothing and durable goods saw surging prices due to the exchange rate pass-through. This was led by rising prices in maintenance-repair, spare parts, personal care, medication and household items. In sum, the temporary tax reductions notwithstanding, February was marked by the lagged effects of the exchange rate on core goods. (Annual % Change) 16 (Annual % Change) 16 Core Goods excl. Clothing and Durables Clothing Durable Goods excl. Gold Food Energy 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 -4 Energy prices increased by 1.52 percent in February amid price hikes across the group. Prices of bottled gas, solid fuels and water displayed a month-on-month surge by 5.08, 1.78 and 1.61 percent, respectively. Moreover, fuel prices soared by 1.97 percent in this period, and the cumulative increase in this group reached 27.40 percent in the last six months. Thus, annual energy inflation rose by 2.34 points to 13.94 percent in February. Annual inflation in food and non-alcoholic beverages inched up by 0.95 points to 8.72 percent in February. This was mainly driven by the rise in unprocessed food prices on account of fresh fruits. Red meat prices followed a mild course, whereas sub-groups such as legumes and rice II
3. FEBRUARY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS MARCH 6 , 2017 witnessed noteworthy price increases. Unprocessed food saw accelerated month-on-month price increases (1.33 percent), while the group’s annual inflation jumped to 7.06 percent in February. Across subgroups, fats and oils, cheese and other dairy products and non-alcoholic beverages displayed soaring prices. (Annual % Change) 20 Unprocessed Food 16 (Annual % Change) 40 Processed Food 30 12 20 8 10 4 0 0 Food Excl. Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Fresh Fruits and Vegetables -10 -4 Monthly Percent Change Feb.2017 Annual Percent Change Feb.2016 Feb.2017 Feb.2016 0.81 -0.02 10.13 8.78 1. Goods 0.87 -0.29 10.90 8.66 Energy 1.52 -0.56 13.94 2.85 Food and nonalcoholic beverages 0.84 -0.04 8.72 8.83 CPI Unprocessed food 0.36 -1.21 10.39 8.89 Fresh fruits and vegetables -0.60 -2.33 14.08 9.83 Other unprocessed food 1.01 -0.37 9.12 7.76 1.33 1.09 7.06 8.79 Bread and cereals 0.76 2.01 6.65 8.71 Other processed food 1.66 0.57 7.30 8.86 Goods excluding energy and food 0.63 -0.37 11.58 10.99 0.73 -0.80 8.83 10.37 1.74 1.33 8.32 11.89 -3.43 -6.30 6.77 9.80 2.56 0.72 11.07 9.15 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 0.03 1.00 21.72 12.78 Gold 1.24 6.22 28.72 16.08 2. Services Processed food Core goods Durable goods (excluding gold) Clothing and footwear (*) Other core goods 0.68 0.59 8.37 9.06 Rents 0.55 0.54 9.40 8.02 Restaurants and hotels 0.86 0.78 8.66 13.12 Transport 1.17 0.94 8.72 5.31 Communication 0.35 0.00 4.66 1.94 Other 0.52 0.55 8.81 11.08 3. Core Measures B 0.81 0.13 8.27 9.49 C 0.70 -0.06 8.56 9.72 D 0.93 0.08 9.40 8.52 Source: TurkStat. (*) Does not cover clothing services. III 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 -20 02.15 -8
4. FEBRUARY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS MARCH 6 , 2017 ... D-PPI ... Domestic producer prices rose by 1.26 percent in February, while annual PPI inflation climbed by 1.67 points to 15.36 percent, which was led by the exchange rate and international commodity prices. Annual inflation reached 17.18 percent in the manufacturing industry and 11.92 percent in the manufacturing industry excluding petroleum and base metals. The seasonally-adjusted underlying trend of manufacturing industry prices excluding petroleum and base metals maintained its high level. 20 (Annual % Change) 35 D-PPI 30 Manufacturing 15 Manufacturing Excluding Petroleum and Basic Metals Seasonally Adjusted, Annualized 3-Month-Average % Change Annual % Change 25 20 10 15 10 5 5 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 02.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 04.15 0 0 According to the Main Industrial Groupings (MIGs), prices registered notable gains across all subcategories in February. The upswing in prices of intermediate goods was driven by basic chemicals, plastic products and textile products. Prices of durable goods rose on account of furniture and consumer electronics, while those of non-durable goods increased due to fats and oils. Motor vehicles drove the prices of capital goods upwards in this period. Hence, producerdriven cost pressures on consumer prices remained robust. 25 (Annual % Change) (Annual % Change) 14 Non-durable Consumption Goods Durable Consumption Goods (Excl. Jewelry) Intermediate Goods 20 12 Capital Goods 10 15 8 10 6 4 5 2 0 IV 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 02.17 12.16 10.16 08.16 06.16 04.16 02.16 12.15 10.15 08.15 06.15 04.15 02.15 0
5. FEBRUARY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS MARCH 6 , 2017 ...TABLES February CPI and Subcategories (Percent Change) Weight CPI Food and nonalcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household equipment Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services 100 21.77 5.87 7.33 14.85 7.72 2.63 16.31 4.12 3.62 2.69 8.05 5.04 2017 Monthly Annual 0.81 10.13 0.84 8.72 0.03 21.72 -3.35 6.77 1.18 7.42 -0.67 4.93 2.17 12.53 2.82 17.96 0.65 4.36 0.89 7.32 0.02 9.33 0.86 8.66 1.38 12.82 2016 Monthly Annual -0.02 8.78 -0.04 8.83 1.00 12.78 -6.16 9.80 0.36 7.22 0.50 11.04 1.80 9.20 0.77 6.32 -0.42 1.26 -0.13 11.25 0.11 6.66 0.78 13.12 1.31 12.00 Source: TurkStat. February D-PPI and Subcategories (Percent Change) 2017 Weight Monthly Annual D-PPI 1.26 15.36 100.00 Mining 2.39 19.19 3.36 Manufacturing 1.36 17.18 88.79 Manufacturing excl. petroleum products 1.40 15.12 86.18 Manufacturing excl. petroleum products and basic metals 1.45 11.92 77.80 Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply -0.68 -5.71 6.81 Water supply 1.91 9.81 1.03 D-PPI (MIGs Classification) Intermediate Goods 1.69 20.03 Durable Consumption Goods 1.56 12.73 Durable Consumption Goods (Excl. Jewelry) 1.35 9.58 Non-Durable Consumption Goods 1.08 8.93 Capital Goods 1.04 12.73 Energy 0.18 17.82 2016 Monthly Annual -0.20 4.47 0.09 2.46 0.15 5.40 0.22 6.57 0.35 7.91 -4.17 -4.30 0.98 9.40 0.08 1.51 0.17 0.25 -0.02 -3.02 5.57 13.49 12.57 4.54 10.44 -7.57 Source: TurkStat. Price Developments are published within one working day, following the announcement of price statistics by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Price Developments, which include CBRT’s initial remarks on the inflation figures of the previous month, aim to contribute to a sounder interpretation by the public of the monthly inflation developments during the period between the announcement of the official price statistics and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. V