Turkey: Business Tendency Survey and Real Sector Confidence Index - May 2017

Transcription

1. Statistics Department CONTENTS PAGE NUMBER Montly Responses 1 Real Sector Confidence Index 2 QUESTIONS How has your production developed over the past 3 months ? It has... 3 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... 3 Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? 3 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 4 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 4 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... 4 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? 5 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 5 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? 5 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) Capacity Utilization Rate (%) What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 6 6 6 6 7 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 7 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... 7 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… 8 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 8 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? It has... 9 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) 9 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11
2. BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY RESPONSES Statistics Department RESPONSES PARTICIPANTS 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 2082 2081 2095 2098 2094 2096 2115 2054 2016-11 2016-12 2017-01 2017-02 2017-03 2017-04 2016-07 2106 2016-10 2113 2016-09 2116 2016-08 2104 2016-06 1600 2016-05 1800 2142 1400 1200 2017-05 1000 BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY MONTHLY RESPONSES MAY 2017 S E C T O R S (Nace Rev.2) Participants Responses Response Rate (%) 10 Manufacture of food products 271 231 85.2 11 Manufacture of beverages 20 17 85.0 12 Manufacture of tobacco products 5 5 100.0 13 Manufacture of textiles 336 260 77.4 14 Manufacture of wearing apparel 218 167 76.6 15 Manufacture of leather and related products 42 36 85.7 16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture 47 39 83.0 17 Manufacture of paper and paper products 77 59 76.6 18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 35 29 82.9 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 11 10 90.9 20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 98 73 74.5 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 23 19 82.6 22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 156 115 73.7 23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 305 250 82.0 24 Manufacture of basic metals 120 114 95.0 25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 234 183 78.2 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 39 36 92.3 27 Manufacture of electrical equipment 121 101 83.5 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 202 161 79.7 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 105 87 82.9 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment 36 35 97.2 31 Manufacture of furniture 66 47 71.2 32 Other manufacturing 54 49 90.7 33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 19 19 100.0 2640 2142 81.1 Total 2
3. Statistics Department REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX 2016 January 2007 - May 2017 Reel Sector Confidence Index 2017 Average Maximum Minumum May June July August September October November December January February March April May 103 .7 121.0 52.6 110.2 107.7 108.0 102.2 106.1 101.0 103.5 97.6 97.1 105.9 108.9 111.2 109.2 Total amount of orders (Current situation) 83.6 98.2 26.9 91.0 92.9 94.4 85.8 88.9 88.7 92.9 90.3 84.8 92.1 92.7 97.2 98.2 Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) 95.2 117.0 78.6 95.9 93.7 96.7 91.0 96.7 95.4 100.5 96.1 94.4 100.6 100.4 95.0 94.0 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 118.6 161.5 48.8 123.6 118.4 120.1 118.3 121.4 113.0 106.9 98.6 104.3 124.7 129.5 125.2 116.9 Total employment (Next 3 months) 107.1 121.5 51.9 114.9 114.5 114.1 108.7 106.5 105.8 105.3 108.2 107.9 112.5 120.9 113.8 114.5 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.1 134.1 33.1 123.4 118.1 120.5 101.5 108.5 97.7 118.1 105.3 98.3 89.9 98.5 117.6 124.8 Export orders (Next 3 months) 117.4 141.2 62.3 124.3 122.8 120.5 120.4 124.2 109.7 107.4 102.4 111.8 128.3 125.4 129.3 109.6 Fixed investment expenditure 104.7 128.7 47.1 107.7 108.5 103.5 103.0 105.8 105.6 102.3 98.4 101.6 105.1 108.7 110.5 111.0 General business situation 96.6 124.8 29.1 100.5 92.7 94.0 88.8 96.5 91.9 94.8 81.7 73.8 93.9 95.3 101.3 104.8 REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX - (Seasonally Adjusted) 2016 January 2007 - May 2017 Reel Sector Confidence Index 2017 Average Maximum Minumum May June July August September October November December January February March April May 103.6 117.0 59.8 105.0 104.1 105.7 101.7 106.6 104.9 108.2 103.9 100.6 106.2 106.5 106.3 104.8 Total amount of orders (Current situation) (**) 83.6 98.2 26.9 91.0 92.9 94.4 85.8 88.9 88.7 92.9 90.3 84.8 92.1 92.7 97.2 98.2 Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) (*) (**) 95.2 117.0 78.6 95.9 93.7 96.7 91.0 96.7 95.4 100.5 96.1 94.4 100.6 100.4 95.0 94.0 Volume of output (Next 3 months) 118.2 139.4 72.3 110.0 113.4 119.0 119.1 125.7 124.3 122.2 119.7 112.8 117.7 111.7 108.8 104.5 Total employment (Next 3 months) 107.0 119.3 60.0 109.5 109.4 111.8 109.7 107.7 109.8 110.9 114.8 112.1 113.2 118.1 108.0 110.0 Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 106.2 134.4 43.0 108.4 102.4 105.1 95.2 108.0 107.3 122.6 114.2 105.9 105.6 109.3 113.1 108.8 Export orders (Next 3 months) 117.2 132.7 75.2 116.8 119.9 120.9 121.0 123.1 115.9 119.2 116.2 119.0 121.5 115.8 116.6 106.9 Fixed investment expenditure (**) 104.7 128.7 47.1 107.7 108.5 103.5 103.0 105.8 105.6 102.3 98.4 101.6 105.1 108.7 110.5 111.0 General business situation (**) 96.6 124.8 29.1 100.5 92.7 94.0 88.8 96.5 91.9 94.8 81.7 73.8 93.9 95.3 101.3 104.8 (*) When the diffusion index of the amount of stock of finished goods is calculated, the signs of the responses are reversed. While an increase in the diffusion index points out a decrease in the amount of stocks, a decline in the diffusion index indicates a rise in the amount of stocks. (**) Since seasonality is not observed in the series of total amount of orders, amount of stocks of finished goods, fixed investment expenditure and general business situation, these variables are not seasonally adjusted. 3
4. Statistics Department BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY WEIGHTED AGGREGATED RESULTS How has your production developed over the past 3 months ? It has... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance SON ÜÇ AY ÜRETİM HACMİ EĞİLİMİ % % PRODUCTION - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS (Arttı-Azaldı) (Increased - Decreased) 50 2016-05 28.1 58.5 13.4 14.7 2016-06 32.2 57.6 10.2 22.0 2016-07 32.9 55.4 11.7 21.2 2016-08 25.7 55.0 19.3 6.4 2016-09 21.5 57.3 21.2 0.3 2016-10 22.8 52.7 24.5 -1.7 2016-11 24.8 52.7 22.5 2.3 2016-12 36.7 51.2 12.1 24.6 2017-01 33.9 49.4 16.6 17.3 2017-02 28.4 53.0 18.6 9.8 2017-03 21.8 59.5 18.7 3.1 2017-04 25.1 63.1 11.8 13.3 2017-05 35.0 58.7 6.3 28.7 50 30 30 10 10 -10 -10 -30 -30 -50 -50 -70 -70 2008-03 2007-03 2008-06 2007-06 2008-09 2008-12 2007-09 2009-03 2007-12 2009-06 2008-03 2009-09 2009-12 2008-06 2010-03 2008-09 2010-06 2010-09 2008-12 2010-12 2009-03 2011-03 2011-06 2009-06 2011-09 2009-09 2011-12 2009-12 2012-03 2012-06 2010-03 2012-09 2010-06 2012-12 2013-03 2010-09 2013-06 2010-12 2013-09 2013-12 2011-03 2014-03 2011-06 2014-06 2011-09 2014-09 2014-12 2011-12 2015-03 2012-03 2015-06 2015-09 2012-06 2015-12 2012-09 2016-03 2016-06 2012-12 2016-09 2013-03 2016-12 2013-06 2017-03 2017-06 2013-09 2017-09 2013-12 2017-12 Months How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % 60 2016-05 36.1 51.4 12.5 23.6 2016-06 33.5 51.4 15.1 18.4 2016-07 32.6 54.9 12.5 20.1 2016-08 32.4 53.5 14.1 18.3 2016-09 36.5 48.5 15.1 21.4 2016-10 30.3 52.4 17.3 13.0 2016-11 24.8 57.3 17.9 6.9 2016-12 20.1 58.4 21.5 -1.4 2017-01 18.6 67.1 14.3 4.3 2017-02 32.0 60.7 7.3 24.7 2017-03 36.1 57.3 6.6 29.5 2017-04 33.3 58.6 8.1 25.2 2017-05 30.0 56.9 13.1 16.9 PRODUCTION - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 25 2016-05 13.4 77.3 9.3 4.1 2016-06 13.2 79.9 6.9 6.3 2016-07 11.0 81.3 7.7 3.3 2016-08 14.7 79.6 5.7 9.0 15 2016-09 9.5 84.3 6.2 3.3 10 2016-10 10.8 83.0 6.2 4.6 5 2016-11 6.5 86.5 7.0 -0.5 2016-12 11.2 81.5 7.3 3.9 2017-01 11.8 82.0 6.2 5.6 -5 2017-02 7.8 83.8 8.4 -0.6 -10 2017-03 7.6 84.4 8.0 -0.4 2017-04 9.7 85.6 4.7 5.0 2017-05 10.1 85.8 4.1 6.0 CURRENT STOCK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 20 0 -15 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 4
5. Statistics Department How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months ? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance % 40 2016-05 35.2 53.0 11.8 23.4 2016-06 30.8 56.5 12.7 18.1 2016-07 33.3 53.9 12.8 20.5 2016-08 26.1 49.4 24.6 1.5 2016-09 29.3 49.9 20.8 8.5 2016-10 22.5 52.7 24.8 -2.3 2016-11 33.3 51.5 15.2 18.1 2016-12 25.5 54.3 20.2 5.3 2017-01 23.5 51.3 25.2 -1.7 2017-02 18.4 53.1 28.5 -10.1 2017-03 21.8 54.9 23.3 -1.5 2017-04 32.0 53.6 14.4 17.6 2017-05 36.0 52.8 11.2 24.8 OVERALL ORDERS - TREND OF LAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-05 33.5 53.7 12.8 20.7 2016-06 30.0 58.2 11.8 18.2 2016-07 30.4 57.0 12.6 17.8 2016-08 25.6 53.2 21.2 4.4 2016-09 24.5 54.3 21.2 3.3 2016-10 20.8 58.6 20.6 0.2 2016-11 26.3 54.8 18.9 7.4 2016-12 22.7 54.9 22.4 0.3 2017-01 16.7 56.7 26.6 -9.9 2017-02 17.8 53.0 29.2 -11.4 2017-03 18.7 55.3 26.0 -7.3 2017-04 21.2 59.6 19.2 2.0 2017-05 29.4 55.6 15.0 14.4 DOMESTIC ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) % 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? They have... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-05 23.8 54.8 21.4 2.4 2016-06 20.5 58.3 21.2 -0.7 2016-07 19.8 58.4 21.8 -2.0 2016-08 18.3 53.6 28.1 -9.8 2016-09 27.0 54.5 18.5 8.5 2016-10 17.7 58.4 23.9 -6.2 2016-11 28.0 56.3 15.7 12.3 2016-12 20.0 57.2 22.8 -2.8 2017-01 27.6 55.4 17.0 10.6 2017-02 23.2 56.7 20.1 3.1 2017-03 25.7 60.1 14.2 11.5 2017-04 29.5 59.3 11.2 18.3 2017-05 26.5 59.0 14.5 12.0 % EXPORT ORDERS - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 5
6. Statistics Department Do you consider your current overall order books to be ...? Months Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 0 2016-05 7.5 76.0 16.5 -9.0 2016-06 7.4 78.1 14.5 -7.1 2016-07 7.1 80.2 12.7 -5.6 2016-08 3.6 78.6 17.8 -14.2 2016-09 3.3 82.3 14.4 -11.1 -30 2016-10 3.5 81.7 14.8 -11.3 -40 2016-11 5.2 82.5 12.3 -7.1 2016-12 6.0 78.3 15.7 -9.7 2017-01 4.4 76.0 19.6 -15.2 -60 2017-02 7.3 77.5 15.2 -7.9 -70 2017-03 5.8 81.1 13.1 -7.3 2017-04 6.7 83.8 9.5 -2.8 2017-05 7.8 82.6 9.6 -1.8 TREND OF CURRENT OVERALL ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) -10 -20 -50 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -80 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? Months Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % TREND OF CURRENT DOMESTIC ORDERS (Above Normal - Below Normal) 2016-05 5.9 79.2 14.9 -9.0 0 2016-06 6.3 79.9 13.8 -7.5 -10 2016-07 4.3 84.3 11.4 -7.1 2016-08 3.0 77.0 20.0 -17.0 2016-09 2.4 80.2 17.4 -15.0 -30 2016-10 2.3 83.4 14.3 -12.0 -40 2016-11 4.9 81.4 13.7 -8.8 2016-12 6.0 79.2 14.8 -8.8 2017-01 3.8 76.5 19.7 -15.9 2017-02 6.3 70.3 23.4 -17.1 2017-03 7.4 77.9 14.7 -7.3 2017-04 6.8 83.2 10.0 -3.2 2017-05 6.8 82.1 11.1 -4.3 -20 -50 -60 -70 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -80 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? Above normal Normal for the season Below normal Balance % 2016-05 6.8 74.8 18.4 -11.6 5 2016-06 6.2 76.1 17.7 -11.5 -5 2016-07 6.8 77.6 15.6 -8.8 2016-08 7.2 75.1 17.7 -10.5 2016-09 6.1 78.1 15.8 -9.7 -25 2016-10 4.8 80.6 14.6 -9.8 -35 2016-11 6.5 78.7 14.8 -8.3 2016-12 5.7 76.9 17.4 -11.7 2017-01 5.2 76.8 18.0 -12.8 2017-02 6.6 78.0 15.4 -8.8 2017-03 7.1 80.5 12.4 -5.3 2017-04 8.1 81.7 10.2 -2.1 2017-05 7.4 81.1 11.5 -4.1 TREND OF CURRENT STOK OF FINISHED PRODUCTS (Above Normal - Below Normal) -15 -45 -55 -65 -75 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 6
7. Statistics Department How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? (*) Weighted average 2016-04 3.3 3 2016-07 3.3 2 2016-10 3.5 1 2017-01 3.3 0 2017-04 3.5 5 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 4 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production capacity is… (*) More than sufficient (Weighted Average) 6 Months Months PRODUCTION PERIOD Months Sufficient CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY (More than sufficient - Sufficient) % 15 10 Not sufficient Balance 5 2016-04 8.3 83.3 8.4 -0.1 0 2016-07 6.6 85.6 7.8 -1.2 -5 2016-10 7.7 84.4 7.9 -0.2 2017-01 12.3 79.6 8.1 4.2 2017-04 6.9 84.5 8.6 -1.7 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -10 Capacity Utilization Rate (%) Weighted average 2016-05 77.7 2016-06 78.0 2016-07 77.8 2016-08 76.3 2016-09 78.1 2016-10 77.9 2016-11 78.0 2016-12 78.1 2017-01 77.0 2017-02 76.8 2017-03 76.7 2017-04 78.4 2017-05 78.8 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (%) % (Weighted Average) 100 90 80 70 60 50 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months What main factors are currently limiting your production? Rank according to degree of importance. (% Share) (*) a. None b. Insufficient demand c. Shortage of labour force d. Shortage of material and/or equipment e. Financial constraints f. Others April 48.8 23.2 7.6 9.0 7.3 4.2 2016 July 49.0 19.3 7.7 8.0 7.6 8.4 October 50.6 21.0 6.7 7.8 6.8 7.1 FACTORS LIMITING THE PRODUCTION 2017 January April 48.1 52.0 22.7 17.8 7.8 8.1 8.8 8.1 7.8 7.3 4.8 6.7 (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 7
8. Statistics Department How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months ? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-05 37.4 50.5 12.1 25.3 2016-06 39.2 46.4 14.4 24.8 2016-07 32.6 52.9 14.5 18.1 2016-08 34.5 53.5 12.0 22.5 2016-09 37.7 45.3 17.0 20.7 2016-10 29.9 49.0 21.1 8.8 2016-11 22.1 57.7 20.2 1.9 2016-12 17.9 59.5 22.6 -4.7 2017-01 25.5 59.8 14.7 10.8 2017-02 35.0 56.3 8.7 26.3 2017-03 39.5 54.0 6.5 33.0 2017-04 44.6 47.1 8.3 36.3 2017-05 37.7 48.1 14.2 23.5 OVERALL ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-05 35.9 53.3 10.8 25.1 2016-06 33.0 50.5 16.5 16.5 2016-07 30.7 54.6 14.7 16.0 2016-08 29.4 56.1 14.5 14.9 2016-09 35.1 47.0 17.9 17.2 2016-10 27.0 58.7 14.3 12.7 2016-11 21.5 55.2 23.3 -1.8 2016-12 21.6 54.0 24.4 -2.8 2017-01 20.5 55.3 24.2 -3.7 2017-02 32.0 56.0 12.0 20.0 2017-03 37.1 55.1 7.8 29.3 2017-04 40.4 52.2 7.4 33.0 2017-05 34.0 53.3 12.7 21.3 DOMESTIC ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) % 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-05 34.5 55.3 10.2 24.3 2016-06 36.1 50.6 13.3 22.8 2016-07 32.5 55.5 12.0 20.5 2016-08 31 58.4 10.6 20.4 2016-09 37.2 49.8 13.0 24.2 2016-10 27.8 54.1 18.1 9.7 2016-11 25.4 56.6 18.0 7.4 2016-12 19.9 62.6 17.5 2.4 2017-01 24.1 63.6 12.3 11.8 2017-02 35.3 57.7 7.0 28.3 2017-03 32 61.4 6.6 25.4 2017-04 36.9 55.5 7.6 29.3 2017-05 25.3 59.0 15.7 9.6 % EXPORT ORDERS - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 40 20 0 -20 -40 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 8
9. Statistics Department How do you expect your firm 's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will… Months Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase-Decrease) 2016-05 19.7 75.5 4.8 14.9 30 2016-06 19.4 75.7 4.9 14.5 20 2016-07 18.9 76.3 4.8 14.1 10 2016-08 13.6 81.5 4.9 8.7 2016-09 14.8 76.9 8.3 6.5 2016-10 12.0 81.8 6.2 5.8 2016-11 12.9 79.5 7.6 5.3 2016-12 15.5 77.2 7.3 8.2 -30 2017-01 14.7 78.5 6.8 7.9 -40 2017-02 17.8 76.9 5.3 12.5 -50 2017-03 25.0 70.9 4.1 20.9 -60 2017-04 18.2 77.4 4.4 13.8 2017-05 17.6 79.3 3.1 14.5 0 -10 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 -20 Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? It will... Months Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance FIXED INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 12 MONTHS % 28.0 51.7 20.3 7.7 40 2016-06 25.7 57.1 17.2 8.5 30 2016-07 21.4 60.7 17.9 3.5 20 2016-08 20.8 61.4 17.8 3.0 10 2016-09 22.7 60.4 16.9 5.8 0 2016-10 20.6 64.4 15.0 5.6 -10 2016-11 23.0 56.3 20.7 2.3 -20 2016-12 20.7 57.0 22.3 -1.6 -30 2017-01 20.0 61.6 18.4 1.6 -40 2017-02 20.3 64.5 15.2 5.1 -50 2017-03 23.7 61.3 15.0 8.7 -60 2017-04 24.4 61.7 13.9 10.5 2017-05 25.1 60.8 14.1 11.0 (Increase - Decrease) 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2016-05 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. More optimistic Remain unchanged More pessimistic Balance % GENERAL COURSE OF BUSINESS (More Optimistic - More Pessimistic) 30 2016-05 10.7 79.1 10.2 0.5 2016-06 8.7 75.3 16.0 -7.3 2016-07 11.2 71.6 17.2 -6.0 2016-08 11.9 65.0 23.1 -11.2 0 2016-09 11.8 72.9 15.3 -3.5 -10 2016-10 8.8 74.3 16.9 -8.1 -20 2016-11 8.4 78.0 13.6 -5.2 -30 2016-12 6.7 68.3 25.0 -18.3 -40 2017-01 4.2 65.4 30.4 -26.2 -50 2017-02 9.3 75.3 15.4 -6.1 -60 2017-03 12.8 69.7 17.5 -4.7 -70 2017-04 13.3 74.7 12.0 1.3 2017-05 14.1 76.6 9.3 4.8 20 10 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 9
10. Statistics Department How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months ? It has... Increased Remained unchanged Decreased Balance 2016-05 35.3 55.8 8.9 26.4 2016-06 39.2 53.5 7.3 31.9 2016-07 32.6 63.0 4.4 28.2 2016-08 36.3 57.9 5.8 30.5 2016-09 34.3 59.2 6.5 27.8 2016-10 41.8 54.1 4.1 37.7 2016-11 45.3 51.0 3.7 41.6 2016-12 49 46.3 4.8 44.2 2017-01 58.2 39.0 2.8 55.4 2017-02 59.1 38.6 2.3 56.8 2017-03 55.8 39.6 4.6 51.2 2017-04 47.9 49.2 2.9 45.0 2017-05 42.6 53.5 3.9 38.7 % AVERAGE UNIT COST - TREND OF PAST 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? It will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance % AVERAGE UNIT COST - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 2016-05 32.0 62.1 5.9 26.1 2016-06 31.6 63.8 4.6 27.0 2016-07 29.9 64.5 5.6 24.3 2016-08 33.3 60.8 5.9 27.4 2016-09 33.2 62.0 4.8 28.4 2016-10 37.7 56.0 6.3 31.4 2016-11 41.3 55.7 3.0 38.3 2016-12 52.1 46.9 1.0 51.1 2017-01 53.8 43.6 2.6 51.2 2017-02 45.0 50.5 4.5 40.5 2017-03 41.0 54.1 4.9 36.1 2017-04 37.9 56.8 5.3 32.6 2017-05 32.0 62.0 6.0 26.0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-05 27.0 65.1 7.9 19.1 2016-06 22.6 70.6 6.8 15.8 2016-07 13.7 78.2 8.1 5.6 2016-08 23.8 67.9 8.3 15.5 2016-09 23.1 70.0 6.9 16.2 2016-10 27.3 66.9 5.8 21.5 2016-11 31.9 63.5 4.6 27.3 2016-12 44.3 51.2 4.5 39.8 2017-01 42.9 52.9 4.2 38.7 2017-02 38.8 57.2 4.0 34.8 2017-03 34.3 60.9 4.8 29.5 2017-04 28.4 66.4 5.2 23.2 2017-05 27.7 66.4 5.9 21.8 % 45 DOMESTIC MARKET SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increased - Decreased) 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? They will... Increase Remained unchanged Decrease Balance % SELLING PRICES - EXPECTATION OF NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 2016-05 25.4 65.9 8.7 16.7 2016-06 22.2 71.4 6.4 15.8 2016-07 14.8 76.7 8.5 6.3 2016-08 23.4 68.3 8.3 15.1 2016-09 20.9 71.9 7.2 13.7 2016-10 27.9 65.5 6.6 21.3 2016-11 30.3 64.3 5.4 24.9 2016-12 41.2 55.5 3.3 37.9 2017-01 40.2 55.6 4.2 36.0 2017-02 38.7 57.6 3.7 35.0 2017-03 33.7 61.7 4.6 29.1 2017-04 27.3 68.5 4.2 23.1 2017-05 26.0 69.2 4.8 21.2 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 10
11. Statistics Department How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months ? It has… (*) Months Improved Remained Deteriorated unchanged Balance % 20 10 2016-04 12.6 81.7 5.7 6.9 2016-07 11.0 83.4 5.6 5.4 0 2016-10 9.0 82.9 8.1 0.9 -10 2017-01 8.7 79.1 12.2 -3.5 2017-04 7.4 87.2 5.4 2.0 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) COMPETITIVE POSITION ON DOMESTIC MARKET (Improved - Deteriorated) 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 -20 % COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS INSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) 10 2016-04 Improved Remained Deteriorated unchanged 5 Balance 0 9.8 82.0 8.2 1.6 2016-07 7.6 82.6 9.8 -2.2 2016-10 11.3 81.1 7.6 3.7 2017-01 10.2 79.7 10.1 0.1 2017-04 6.8 86.5 6.7 0.1 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? It has… (*) -5 -10 -15 -20 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 Months % COMPETITIVE POSITION ON FOREIGN MARKETS OUTSIDE THE EU (Improved - Deteriorated) 10 Improved Balance 2016-04 11.4 80.3 8.3 3.1 2016-07 10.2 80.9 8.9 1.3 2016-10 11.8 80.3 7.9 3.9 2017-01 10.8 80.6 8.6 2.2 2017-04 6.7 86.8 6.5 0.2 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 2014-01 2014-04 2014-07 2014-10 2015-01 2015-04 2015-07 2015-10 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 Months Remained Deteriorated unchanged (*) These indicators are produced quarterly (in January, April, July and October). 11
12. Statistics Department What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months ? (Weighted Average) (%) Weighted average 2016-05 7.7 2016-06 7.7 2016-07 7.7 2016-08 7.6 2016-09 7.6 2016-10 7.5 2016-11 7.5 2016-12 8.0 2017-01 8.7 2017-02 9.0 2017-03 9.6 2017-04 10.2 2017-05 10.5 INFLATION RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS (%) % (Weighted Average) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? It will... Increase Remain unchanged Decrease Balance 2016-05 12.7 67.2 20.1 -7.4 2016-06 9.7 68.4 21.9 -12.2 2016-07 13.3 64.7 22.0 -8.7 2016-08 9.6 62.9 27.5 -17.9 2016-09 7.2 70.4 22.4 -15.2 2016-10 21.0 64.9 14.1 6.9 2016-11 19.9 66.7 13.4 6.5 2016-12 37.0 58.2 4.8 32.2 2017-01 51.0 45.1 3.9 47.1 2017-02 38.5 56.2 5.3 33.2 2017-03 33.1 61.3 5.6 27.5 2017-04 33.1 61.3 5.6 27.5 2017-05 31.6 63.1 5.3 26.3 % CREDIT INTEREST RATE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS (Increase - Decrease) 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 Months 12