Sukuk Growth Comparison: Why Does Indonesia Lose With Malaysia?
Sukuk Growth Comparison: Why Does Indonesia Lose With Malaysia?
Transcription
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview SUKUK GROWTH COMPARATION: WHY DOES INDONESIA LOSE WITH MALAYSIA? M. Fuad Hadziq dan Any Meilani BACKGROUNDS Islamic sharia‐based financial concepts have been widely accepted in the world and have become alternatives, both for sharia compliant markets (syariah compliance), and for conventional markets as a source of profit (profit source). One of the sharia financial instruments that has been issued by both the state and corporation is sukuk or Islamic bonds. At present, several countries have become regular issuers of sukuk, for example Malaysia, Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, and Germany State of Saxony. The number of sukuk issuers from year to year has increased because market opportunities will be very responsive to sukuk issuance. Almost all of the sukuk issued were sold out by the market, even some cases caused excess demand. The Islamic bond industry in Indonesia is expected to grow as in Malaysia, which has achieved results above US $ 3 billion. In addition, the potential of investors from Muslim countries around the world reaches above US $ 7000 billion. An amount that is not small and very significant to be a prospective market for sharia bonds going forward. That is an opportunity for the development of Islamic bonds in Indonesia to attract investors, especially foreign investors, because the majority of Indonesia's population is Muslim (Dede, 2011). This opportunity is a challenge as well as a very large and broad market in Indonesia, considering that Indonesia is the largest Muslim‐occupied country in the world, reaching 250 million. Besides, the market share of Islamic economics has reached 8.4% of the national economic market share and the market share of Islamic banking has also reached 5.4% of the total national banking market share. 23
- 24 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Table. 1 Total Amounts and Amounts of Sukuk and Sukuk Outstanding Emissions 2002‐2014 Sukuk Emission Outstanding sukuk Year Total value Total Total Total value (billion) (billion) number Number 2002 175 1 175 1 2003 740 16 740 6 2004 1424 13 1394 13 2005 2009 16 1979 16 2006 2282 17 2179 17 2007 3174 21 3029 20 2008 5498 29 4958 24 2009 7015 43 5621 30 2010 7815 47 6121 32 2011 7915 48 5879 31 2012 9790 54 6883 32 2013 11994 64 7553 36 2014 12727.4 68 7391 36 Source: Directorate of Sharia Banking ‐ Financial Service Authority Based on data from the Sharia Banking Directorate above, that sukuk in Indonesia experienced a significant development. It can be checked that in the 2002 period, 2014, the value of sukuk emissions has experienced a growth of 7.172 percent, meaning that the value of sukuk emissions has increased 70 times from the base year. This growth is in line with the development of the number of sukuk issued. This phenomenon shows the high interest of corporations or institutions for Islamic financial instruments as an option in investing in the financial sector. In addition, the standardized value of sukuk has also experienced significant developments up to 2014, namely the value of IDR. 7,391 billion ‐. This value is almost reaching 50% percent of the value of sukuk emissions. It can be concluded that in 2014 the total value of sukuk that has been paid (due) is more than 50 percent of total sukuk emissions.
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview In Indonesia, corporation sukuk is better known as sharia bonds. In 2002, the National Sharia Council issued a fatwa No: 32 / DSN‐MUI / IX / 2002, concerning Obligation of Sharia. The regulation makes sukuk legally strong. However, in the process, sukuk instruments issued by companies (corporation sukuk) as well as by the state (sovereign sukuk) developed very rapidly in the world However, why is the development of sukuk in Indonesia very slow? Even though Indonesia is considered a potential market for the development of the Islamic finance industry. 2014 2015‐Jun 68,33 118,84 2013 120,00 2012 124,00 2011 85,07 42,00 (USD MILYAR) 2010 1 Source: Global Sukuk Report 1Q 2015 Figure 1 Developments in the Issue of Global Sukuk 2010‐2015 In the graph above, the issue of global sukuk has been fluctuating during 2010‐June 2015. In 2015, sukuk issue decreased significantly. This is because of the withdrawal decision by the Central Bank of Malaysia (BNM) and move to other instruments. The reason behind the decision was due to the impact of rising fuel prices, political problems, and a decline in the value of the Malaysian ringgit (Ahmad, 2015). As a result of the BNM decision, the total global sukuk issue experienced a drastic decline, which decreased 42 percent from the previous year. This phenomenon shows the magnitude of the influence of the issue portion of Malaysian sukuk on total global sukuk issue so that the impact can significantly affect the number of global sukuk issue. 25
- 26 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Bangladesh Brunei Malaysia Indonesia Turki 0,1% 0,1% 0,8% 14,2% 42,3% 18,2% 14,1% 5,3% 6,0% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% Source: Global Sukuk Report 1Q 2015 Figure 2 Portion of Issuance of Sukuk by the State From the graph above it can be explained that the total issue of Malaysian sukuk turned out to be 42.3 percent of the total global sukuk issued. This amount makes Malaysia the largest sukuk issuing country in the world although in terms of the number of its muslims population are not comparable to the population in other muslim countries. In addition, the difference in the portion of sukuk issue seems to have a far gap with other muslim countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, which is only 18.2% in the second position, while Indonesia was in the fourth place with a value of 14.1 percent. According to Achsien (2004), there are many challenges in the growth of Islamic bonds in Indonesia, such as socialization to investors, opportunity costs, liquidity, regulation or legislation. In addition, many macroeconomic variables are factors that influence the development of sukuk in one country. These factors need to be broken down into small parts that can be redefined into a factor that can be a joint influence. Therefore, we need to know more deeply through our own research for the discovery of comprehensive outcomes. The influence of liquidity, regulation, and legislation on sukuk is caused by the three aspects that provide an overview of the legal security and certainty of an investment instrument, so that the three aspects have a big contribution in making investment decisions by investors, in this case investment sukuk.
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview The purpose of this research is to analyze the causal factors in slowing sukuk growth from macroeconomic variables in Indonesia compared to Malaysia. After knowing these variables, then measuring the magnitude of the influence of macroeconomic variables on the growth of sukuk was carried out. This can map the pattern of macroeconomic variables that plays a big role and has a domino effect on the imbalance in sukuk growth in Indonesia. If any variables that influence the mapping of comparability between the two countries is found, then the analysis of the barrier factors of the sukuk growth of the two countries takes place. This stage will produce output results that are used to further analyze business solutions from the government as regulators to accelerate the business of sukuk growth. LITERATURE The sukuk originally came from the Arabic word: ﺻﻜﻮﻙ, in the plural form is ﺻﻚ or Sakk, which means legal, charitable, check instruments which are used for ligation based on sharia principles. In other words, sukuk is a long‐term securities based on sharia principles issued by issuers to holders of Islamic ligation that require issuers to pay income to holders of Islamic ligation in the form of profit sharing and repay bonds at maturity (Burhanuddin, 2009) Sukuk as Islamic financial products are often equated with bonds (bonds) even though they have somewhat different characteristics. According to Adam (2006), sukuk has general characteristics that make it have the same quality as other conventional financial products, as in the following table: 27
- 28 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Table 2. General Characteristics of Sukuk Can be traded Sukuk represents the actual owner of a clear asset, (Tradable) asset benefits, or business activities. He can be traded according to market prices Rateable Sukuk can be rated by rating agencies, regional and international. Enhanceable In addition to the underlying assets or business activities, sukuk can be guaranteed in other collateral based on sharia principles. Legal Flexibility Sukuk can be structured and offered nationally and globally with different tax treatment. Redeemable The structure of the sukuk allows it to be redeemed. Resource: Adam (2006) Some of the advantages of sukuk are being able to reach wider investors, especially for investors who care about sharia aspects. Sukuk is also useful in diversifying portfolios as a source of funds. Sukuk offers a relatively low price, with a high level of demand. Sukuk generally have the same lowest or minimum price compared to conventional bonds. Whereas sukuk weaknesses are more complicated structures because they require the exist‐ence of an accommodating asset or underlying asset. Sukuk is an investment instrument, so it has clear tax and legal uncertainty. Sukuk also does not have official benchmarks, because government sukuk have not been issued (Ascarya, 2007). As with bonds, sukuk is also one of the investment instruments in the capital market. The risk of sukuk globally is also similar to the risk of conventional bonds. According to the Chartered Financial Analyst (2007) cited by Nurul Huda and Mustofa Edwin (2007), the sukuk risks are; first, the risk of rate of return is the risk that exists in all types of sukuk with a fixed rate. In other conditions, yields are very dependent on the performance of companies in volatile mudharabah contracts. Second, credit risk. Investors have credit risk at the ijarah sukuk because of default payments on the lease of the underlying asset. A repeated
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview mechanism for higher yields / interest rates with higher defaults is not allowed in Islamic law. If the lender has another substitute alternative when the underlying asset cannot cover the loss, the credit risk in the sukuk must be assessed independently. Third, exchange rate risk (foreign exchange rate risk). Exchange rate risk occurs when the return on the management of an underlying asset is given in a foreign currency. At that time, the issuer can calculate and provide collateral in the purpose of protecting investors from exchange rate movements. Fourth, price / collateral risk. Price level risk will occur when the specification of the asset at the proposed sukuk issuance value is different from the actual market value and report on the value of the underlying asset. Sukuk ijarah is the most vulnerable to this risk because leased assets can depreciate below market prices. Good management of assets is an important factor in dealing with this risk. Fifth, liquidity risk (liquidity risk). Investors risk the long‐term flow of liquidity on the secondary market. In the condition of buy and hold, that is the tendency to buy and hold sukuk sales, thus creating inefficient sukuk ownership patterns, for example, in sukuk salam whose assets are agricultural commodities traded in the securities market. In addition, the Zero Coupon Sukuk in Istisna and Murabahah Sukuk which cannot be sold is bought on the secondary market, because it is caused by debt sale and purchase (bai ad‐dayn). It is also prohibited by the major scholar. Sixth, sharia compliance risk (sharia compliance risk). In sukuk trading on the market, sukuk structures can occur that do not fulfill sharia aspects, so that sharia rules are made with the aim of protecting Muslim investors from practices that resemble Islamic principles. Yield is an advantage in sukuk. The usage can be detailed as follows (Reilly, 1994): 1) Yield calculated by the number of coupons received for one year against the price of sukuk is called the current yield. 2) Yield used until maturity is yield maturity 3) Yield to buy back a sukuk is yield to call The explanation of this yield can be described as follows: 29
- 30 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Table 3 Use or Yield Objectives Type of yield Function and purpose a) The purpose of measuring the level of a) Horizon yield sukuk income in the selling maturity condition b) Promised yield to b) The goal is to buy back call c) Promised yield to c) Measure of the level of income projected to the maturity of sukuk maturity d) The unit of profit is the current income d) Current yield level e) Can be measured from the coupon rate e) Nominal yield Resource : (Really, 1994: 486) METHODS This research is a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches. Using these approaches, researchers make a complex picture, examine the words, detail reports from the respondents' views, and conduct studies on natural situations (Cresswell, 1998: 15). A descriptive analysis method was used in the study reported in this article. This method is used to identify from the outside about the influence, calculate the magnitude of the influence and impact of the influence, and test the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable. The types of research data are primary and secondary data. The data was taken by the Head of the Sharia capital market body, the Ministry of Finance in charge of Syariah Finance, the Head of the Sharia Financial Services and central bank authorities in Indonesia and Malaysia as well as Bank Indonesia, OJK, and Bank Negara Malaysia. Besides, it was also conducted by conducting direct interviews with the Sukuk Agency in Malaysia. Research time was 8 years, starting from 2008 to 2015 in the form of monthly time series.
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview The reason for choosing Malaysia as an object of research is that Malaysia is the largest Muslim sukuk country in the Southeast Asia. Malaysia dominates the sukuk market by 38 percent of the total global sukuk issuance of US $ 77.1 billion in 2016, followed by Indonesia which controls 27 percent of the global sukuk market and 12 percent of the Cayman Islands. This was proven in mid 2007, which recorded total emissions of RM 111.5 billion ($ 33 billion). In addition, the market share of Sharia banking accounts for almost 23% of the total national economy of Malaysia, although 15% of its customers are non‐Muslims. Meanwhile, market sharia banking share in Indonesia in 2015 was only 4.6%. A distinguishing factor from Indonesia is that three Islamic banks in Malaysia already have assets of US $ 5.4 billion. This cannot be achieved yet from the total of all sharia banking in Indonesia (FETA, Ministry of Finance 2015). The method of the research analysis was the path analysis method, that is, by analyzing the relationship patterns between variables that aim to find out the direct and indirect effects between the independent and bound variables. a. Sub‐Structure Equation I (Z = α + ρyx1X1 + ρyx2X2 + ρyx3X3 + ρyx4X4 + ρyx5X5 + ρyε1) b. Sub Structure equation II (Y =α + ρyx1X1 + ρyx2X2 + ρyx3X3 + ρyx4X4 + ρyx5X5 + Z + ρyε1) Table 4. Research Variable Question Resources Method 1. What are the causal factors in Book, journal, BI, In‐depth slowing sukuk growth from OJK and interview macroeconomic variables in Malaysian state Documentation Indonesia compared to Malay? bank 2. How much influence do BI rate, inflation, Path analysis macroeconomic variables have on deposit interest sukuk growth in Indonesia and Malaysia? 31
- 32 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Resources Method BI rate, inflation, Path analysis deposit interest, sukuk, economic growth, monetary 4. Primary data in Documentation Indonesia In‐depth Book, journal, BI, interview with OJK and participants Malaysian state bank 5. What are the obstacles to the growth Book, journal, BI, Documentation of sukuk in Indonesia compared to OJK and In‐depth Malaysia? Malaysian state interview with bank participants RESULTS Macro Variable Development According to data from Bank Indonesia (2018), the development of Indonesian Islamic banks in February 2018 amounted to 13 BUSs, increased by 4 BUSs, 2 BUSs were the conversion of Conventional Commercial Banks and 2 BUS spin off Sharia Business units (UUS) so that the number of UUS in 2010 decreased by 21 UUS. The growth of Islamic banking deposits in Bank Indonesia's banking report in 2008 reached IDR. 27,696 billion, then in 2012 it reached IDR 147,512 billion. This is a very good result for the development of Islamic banking deposits. Such growth cannot be separated from good planning carried out by various groups in the progress of Islamic banking. Finally in the future, the growth of deposits in Islamic banking is higher in percentage than conventional bank deposits. Whereas in Malaysia, the growth in deposits is more volatile than in Indonesia. In aggregate, the total is greater. In 2008, it was in the range of 3 thousand in million ringgit. However, deposits declined in the second 3. Question What is the mapping of the patterns of economic variables that play a big role and have a domino effect on the imbalance in sukuk growth in Indonesia? What efforts should the government do as regulators to accelerate the efforts to grow sukuk in Indonesia and Malaysia?
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview semester of 2009 when the range fell to 779 in million ringgit (Bank Negara Malaysia, 2017). These figures are strongly influenced by the political conditions of government, through various policies in the economy. While the rising trend of sukuk continued to climb monthly in 2008 to 2015. At the beginning of January 2008, sukuk emissions were still in the range of IDR 5,498 billion. Lapse of time later precisely in December 2012, sukuk emissions had reached IDR 9,790 billion). Subsequently, sukuk emissions continued to increase significantly (sukuk site in Malaysia). The results of this research in the growth of sukuk in Indonesia have several indicators, including growth tends to be sluggish with an increase in the range of 5‐10%. Corporate sukuk is still relatively small compared to the ratio of total sukuk emissions, the contract used is still limited to Ijarah and Mudhorobah, the allocation of sukuk for infrastructure development is still very small, maturity of 5‐10 years is relatively short, government funds and private funds are very small invested in Sukuk. This is in line with the research findings from Ascarya (2007) which showed that the government's commitment in developing the Islamic financial system, especially sukuk, is still very minimal. Therefore, clear efforts are needed in strategic levels with the aim of accelerating the development of the Islamic financial system, so that the government must pay more attention to the political will in developing the sukuk strategy in the future. While sukuk in Malaysia have several indicators, among others, there are many product innovations. Besides, sukuk has been issued in many sectors not only in infrastructure. The covenants in the sukuk have experienced many developments, not only from one school to another but from many schools, especially Imam Hanafi. This conclusion is the result of interviewing researchers with one of the sukuk institutions in Malaysia. This rapid sukuk growth is in line with Kontan's daily economic & business news, Thursday, June 26, 2008. Sukuk has now become an integral part of the global financial system. In 2007, the value of sukuk traded on the global market has increased more than twice compared to 2006, and reached US $ 62 billion compared to 2006 of US $ 27 billion. From 2001 to 2006, sukuk experienced an average growth of 123%. Even projected in the next five years, the sukuk market can penetrate the level of US $ 100 billion, depending on conditions of credit market stability. Meanwhile, Moody's 33
- 34 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview estimates that the sukuk market will increase by 35% per year. In 2010, the global sukuk market was estimated to be able to penetrate up to US $ 200 billion, mainly supported by countries in the Gulf region, Britain, Japan and Thailand. In 2008, the overall sukuk trade reached IDR 1,385,450 million. Furthermore, in 2009, there has been an increase to IDR 11,051,383 million. Then, a very significant increase also occurred, an increase of IDR 34,839,931 million in 2010. This result is a remarkable achievement for the development of sukuk from year to year. This development is comparable with the growth in Malaysia which is the center of sukuk growth in Southeast Asia. Sukuk in Malaysia continues to experience rapid growth. At the start of the research in 2008, sukuk had reached 5,498 in million ringgit and soared above 100% above 10,000 in million ringgit in 2013. Even at the end of the research year it had reached 13,000 in million ringgit in 2015 (sukuk site in Malaysia). BPS reported that there were fluctuations in the inflation index in 2008 ‐ 2015. Reports from BPS also showed that the inflation rate in 2008 reached an average of 6.22%. Then, in 2009 there was a significant decline of 4.52%. At the end of 2015 the inflation rate continued to decline to the point of 4.52%. The data indicates that inflation is still in the low inflation range because it is averaged in the range of still within 5%. This happened in the range of 2008‐2010 in the political situation, such as the campaign and the General Election that could be said to be relatively safe and calm. (BPS report) The deposits used in this research were 12‐month deposits. This reference is based on the largest funding reference in deposits in Indonesia, which is on 12‐month deposits. The table above shows that in the first year the interest rate research is around 7%. Slowly into the following year, in 2009 it reached 8.25% which was the highest interest rate in this research. Furthermore, the trend continued to decline until 2013 to reach the range of 5.75%. In 2014, the deposit interest rate increased to around 7.5%. This inflation rate for developing countries is still relatively low. Within 7 years, from 2008 to 2015, the development of SBI experienced fluctuations that were quite up and down, although the fluctuations are still in a reasonable stage, given the absence of an economic recession in Indonesia.
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview The trend at the beginning of the research began with 8% and then declined around 6%, and rose again in the final year of research which reached 7.5% (BI report). The GDP used in this research is economic growth at BI. Economic growth in Indonesia is quite good compared to countries in the world, especially in Asia. Indonesia is still the highest country and only lost to China & India. Economic growth in this research began with 6% to 4.71% at the end of 2015. The GDP can be said to be high growth. Only at the beginning of 2015 that only reached 3.50% (BI report). In the first year of research M1M2 was in the range of IDR 1,182,383, billion. Slowly into the following year, in 2015 it reached IDR 4,848,000 billion. The development of M1M2 continued to increase significantly. In accordance with the theory, the increase in circulation of money continues to develop over time (BI Report). Comparison of Macro Variable Effects From the data processing that has been done, we get the following results. Table 5 Regression models in Indonesia B Beta (W) t Sig. (Constant) .916 1.275 .205 Bunga_deposito .064 .020 .452 .653 SBI ‐.049 ‐.022 ‐.512 .610 Inflasi .123 .117 4.351 .000 DPK .091 .209 1.688 .095 PDB ‐.435 ‐.244 ‐8.735 .000 M1M2 .517 .732 5.830 .000 R2 0.967 Adjusted R2 0.964 The regression results have a large R Square which is equal to 96.7%, so it can be interpreted that the variables of interest on deposits, SBI, Inflation, DPK, GDP and M1M2 can explain 96.7%, against sukuk emissions in 35
- 36 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Indonesia. Then, the remaining 3.2% is explained by other variables, which is not included in the test. These results revealed that these variables had a very large and significant influence on the development of sukuk in Indonesia. Table 6. Regression Models in Malaysia B Beta (W) t Sig. (Constant) ‐11115,424 ‐8,408 ,000 Interest deposit 20,194 ,004 ,031 ,975 SBI ‐1005,109 ‐,188 ‐1,725 ,088 Inflation ‐11,150 ‐,009 ‐,380 ,705 DPK ,028 ,053 ,879 ,382 PDB 61,664 ,080 3,449 ,001 M1M2 ,017 ,963 17,924 ,000 R2 0.975 Adjusted R2 0.974 Note: *p<0.05 (Significant) Resource: SPSS Data While in Malaysia the influence reached 97.5% of sukuk, which is greater than Indonesia. R square in the two big countries explains that sukuk is very closely related to the volatility of the development of supporting macro variables. The implications were supported by the results of the F / Simultas Test in Malaysia which stated that there was a true influence of macro variables on sukuk. From the equation, it can be interpreted that the results of the T‐test that the constant variable regression model has a coefficient of 0.916. This means that if other independent variables are considered permanent or non‐existent, deposits will experience an increase in deposits of 0.916 billion rupiah. This coefficient can be interpreted as such, because it can be seen from the R‐square at the beginning that the amount is 96%, indicating that there are still other variables outside the independent variables that affect the development of Islamic sharia emissions.
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview From the correlation coefficient for the deposit interest variable is 0.064, it is known that the sukuk variable coefficient is positive at 0.064 which means that any increase in deposit interest by 1% will increase the sukuk by 0.064 billion sukuk. However, the results obtained from the T‐test showed that the p‐value was 0.653> 0.05, then H is accepted which means that deposits do not affect sukuk in Indonesia. This interpretation is in line in Malaysia which shows the absence of the effect of deposits on sukuk. Researchers analyze that deposits and sukuk are separate investment instruments. Deposit interest in Indonesia tends to fluctuate as well as has not significantly affected the growth of sukuk as an investment instrument that is considered to be a competitor between the two. In addition, the correlation coefficient for the SBI variable is ‐0.049 with the SBI variable coefficient being negative at ‐0.049, which means that every 1% increase in SBI will reduce sukuk by ‐0.049 billion Islamic banking deposits. The results of the T‐test obtained showed that the p‐value was 0.610> 0.05, then H1 was accepted which means that SBI has no effect on sukuk in Indonesia. This conclusion is also the same in Malaysia, that Malaysian interest rates do not affect sukuk. Interest rates still have not had a reciprocal effect on sukuk. From the table, it is also known that the correlation coefficient for the inflation variable is 0.123. It is known that the inflation coefficient of inflation is positive at 0.123, which means that every increase in 1 rupiah of inflation will reduce sukuk by 0.123 billion. The results of the T‐test showed that the p‐value was 0.000 <0.05, then Ho was rejected, which means that inflation affects the sukuk in Indonesia. The incident was inversely proportional to Malaysia, which stated that inflation had no effect on sukuk. When viewed from the data, inflation in Malaysia is not patterned. Increases and decreases can occur every month and even then the volatility is often and large. It is very different from the growth of sukuk which continues to increase continuously every month and year. In the table above it is also known that the correlation coefficient for the DPK variable is 0.091. It is known that the variable coefficient of DPK is positive at 0.091 which means that every increase of 1 rupiah DPK will increase the sukuk by 0.091 billion. The results of the T‐test showed that the p‐value was .095 <0.05, then Ho was accepted, which means the price of 37
- 38 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview deposits does not affect sukuk. This is the same as in Malaysia. Deposits do not affect the growth of sukuk. Although Malaysia is very large in its Islamic bank assets, it does not occur in its deposits. Seeing from its growth in the early years of research is still slow, but in 2010‐2015 this experienced a continued upward development. The Beta model results globally that the development of sukuk in Indonesia, the biggest macroeconomic factor that affects money supply, is GDP and finally inflation. This means that if the Indonesian government concentrates on sukuk plants, priorities and strategies are needed in the circulating financial arrangements, then GDP and inflation. Compared to Malaysia, from the Beta model the biggest macroeconomic factor that affects is GDP, then money supply. Likewise, in Malaysia, the Malaysian government must provide more optimization and priority to the GDP and money supply policies. In fact, this has been reflected in the three growth rates of sukuk emissions in Malaysia because of the high GDP in the country. The barrier to sukuk growth in Indonesia compared to Malaysia is: the contract used is still limited with Ijarah and Mudhorobah; the allocation of sukuk for infrastructure development is still very small; the maturity range is 5‐10 years which is relatively short and government funds and private funds are very little invested in Sukuk. This is somewhat in line with the results of research from Armadita (2013) which revealed that Indonesia has limited number human resources in the sector. In terms of product innovation, it is still very limited because the Islamic capital market regulation is lacking in updates. As well as from the accounting side, that sukuk has not been regulated in the standard Sharia PSAK. This is also in line with Blair (2005) who stated that the growth of sukuk in Indonesia is still hindered from less innovative contracts, such as the Bai al Inah ban which is not permitted in Indonesia because of the risk of non‐compliance with sharia principles or sharia compliance risk. CONCLUSION Factors that influence the growth of sukuk in Indonesia are internal and external. Internal factors include company profits, leverage, ham prices, company profit projections, operating expenses, and so on. While external
- CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety :Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview factors include inflation, economic growth, exchange rates, gold prices, GDP, economic growth and so forth. Variable deposits, SBI, GDP, inflation, TPF Islamic banking, the money supply have an effect of 96% on the growth of sukuk in Indonesia. While the remaining 4% is influenced by other variables. Furthermore, the mapping of sukuk in Indonesia is different. Malaysia is much larger than Indonesia. In Indonesia, sukuk is affected by 96% by variable deposits, SBI, GDP, inflation, Deposits, Islamic Banking, the money supply, but in Malaysia it is affected by 97.5%. Government efforts in sukuk growth solutions in Indonesia suggest that the distribution of APBN funds to Islamic banking and investment into sukuk is mainly in the infrastructure sector, and also for the allocation of religious funds: zakat, infaq, almsgiving, Ministry of Religion. Therefore, more massive, structured and long‐term socialization and education is needed. In the long term, it is expected that the government will be more concerned in the development of special institutions themselves that focus on sukuk. REFERENCES Achsien, Iggie H., 2003, Sharia Investment in the Capital Market: Initiating Concepts and Techniques in Sharia Portfolio Management, Jakarta: PT. Gramedia Main Library, Cet. Second. Ahmad, Nurul Wajhi, et al. "Growth and Prospect of Sukuk in Malaysian Market: A Review." 2015 Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Management and Finance. Armadiyanti, Putri. "Opportunities and Challenges for the Development of Sharia Bonds (Sukuk) in Indonesia." Journal of Educational Technology Students 2.1 (2013). Ascarya and Diana Yumanita, 2007, Comparing The Development Islamic Financial / Bond Market in Malaysia and Indonesia, IRTI Publications (2008): Saudi Arabia. Bank Indonesia report, accessed on Monday, April 23, 2018 Bank Negara Malaysia report, accessed at www.bnm.gov.my/ at 12 Blair, William, Legal Issues in the Islamic Financial Services, a paper presented at a seminar in Kuwait March 1‐2 2005 39
- 40 CollaborativeInnovationofEconomicSociety:Economics,Banking,IslamicEconomicsReview Burhanuddin S. 2009. Sharia Capital Market: Legal Review. Yogyakarta: UII Press Yogyakarta. Central Bureau of Statistics report, https://www.bps.go.id/. Cresswell, 1998, Research Method, Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBER), Volume 5, Number 3. Dede, 2011, Development of Sharia Bonds in Indonesia: Opportunity and Tan‐hand Analysis, Jakarta: Innovatio. Vol X, No. 2 July December 2011.2015 Global Sukuk Report IQ.Daily economic and business, Kontan, Thursday, June 26, 2008 Huda, Nurul & Edwin, Mustafa. "Investment in the Islamic Capital Market" Publisher Kencana Prenada Media Group. Jakarta. 2007 BPPK Report, Ministry of Finance 2015 N.J. Adam, Sukuk: A Panacea for Convergence and Capital Market Development in the OIC Countries, Paper presented at the 6th International Conference on Islamic Economics and Finance, Jakarta, Indonesia, November, 21‐24 2005. Reilly K. Frank, Keith C. Brown. 2006. Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, Issue 8, USA: Thomson, South‐Western. Report of the National Sharia Council of the Indonesian Ulama Council, https://dsnmui.or.id/
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