Results Note Top Glove (BUY, maintain), and Economy ASEAN Outlook Weekly Wrap

Transcription

1. 16 December 2016 Today ’s Highlights B ursa M alaysi a Results Note – Top Glove (BUY, maintain) - Improving efficiency Economy – ASEAN Outlook – Weekly Wrap - BI kept its policy rate at 4.75% for second straight month KLCI 52-wk range 1862.80 - 1532.14 M kt Cap (RM bn) 1,659.58 Vol (m shrs) 1,210.07 Value (RM m) 1,484.17 KLCI futures (spot ) 1,633.00 KLCI futures (1-mt h) 1,637.50 KLC I I nd ex ( 12 - mt h) Quick bites Construction: RM2bn saved on MRT Line 1 project 1750 1650 Outside Malaysia Dec-16 Sep-16 Consumer prices in US increase for fourth consecutive month Jun-16 Dec-15 Mar-16 1550 US equities resume advance as financial, phone stocks rally T o p 4 Gainer s Jobless claims in US decrease to lowest level in three weeks Euro-area maintains momentum as weaker currency helps factories Price ( R M ) chg ( R M ) % chg NESTLE 78.50 1.90 2.5 AJI 14.10 0.36 2.6 KLK 24.08 0.20 0.8 Bank of England holds rate and says inflation rise may slow in 2017 PANAM Y 31.90 0.20 0.6 PPB 15.86 0.18 1.1 Bank of Korea holds key rate to weigh Fed, domestic politics T o p 5 Lo sers Price ( R M ) chg ( R M ) % chg Indonesia keeps key rate unchanged as rupiah slumps on Fed BAT 44.32 (1.18) (2.59) UTDPLT 27.52 (0.28) (1.01) HLFG 14.92 (0.26) (1.71) PETGAS 21.24 (0.22) (1.03) LAFM SIA 7.40 (0.20) (2.63) Price ( R M ) chg ( R M ) V al ( R M m) Oil closes near US$51 as Kuwait said to cut sales to US, Europe T o p 5 V alue T r ad ed TENAGA 13.76 (0.02) 155.66 PBBANK 19.66 (0.02) 121.80 M AYBANK 7.92 (0.03) 55.76 PCHEM 6.85 (0.05) 55.58 CIM B 4.62 (0.03) 55.19 Key Eq uit y Ind ices C lo se KLCI Other Markets Key Indicators (0.4) (3.3) 0.3 13.9 Nasdaq 5456.9 0.4 9.0 FTSE100 6999.0 0.7 12.1 (1.3) East. Europe COMMODITIES Latest CPO (RM/Tonne) Spot (Jan) 3-mth futures (Mar) Brent Crude Oil (US$/brl) Spot 1-mth futures Gold (US$/oz) Spot 1-mth futures chg (%) 3,189.0 3,185.0 50.9 52.0 1127.8 1128.6 0.0 1.9 (0.3) (0.2) (2.9) (2.9) % chg Y t d chg ( %) 19852.2 Dow Jones 1637.0 2810.9 1.1 45872.0 (0.8) 6.7 1972.9 0.7 (14.6) Shanghai B 3117.7 (0.7) (11.9) Hong Kong 22059.4 (1.8) 0.7 Korea 2036.7 (0.0) 3.8 Singapore 2930.8 (0.8) 1.7 Indonesia 5254.4 (0.2) 14.4 Philippines 6855.3 (1.1) (1.4) 1519.7 (0.1) 18.0 15.0 CURRENCIES M exico Latest Ytd chg (%) RM/US$ 4.47 (3.8) RM per 100 Yen 3.78 (5.4) RM/S$ 3.11 (2.2) Yen/US$ 118.26 1.7 Eur/US$ 0.96 4.2 RM/AUD 3.31 (5.1) MALAYSIA INTEREST RATES Latest Ytd chg (bps) OPR (%) 3.00 (25.0) 3-mth Klibor (%) 3.41 (43.0) Maybank BR (%) 3.00 *as at 1 July 2016 Shenzen B Thailand Vietnam 665.9 0.1 India 26519.1 (0.3) 1.5 Taiwan 9360.4 (0.1) 12.3 Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 1 of 7
2. 16 December 2016 Quick Bites Construction : RM2bn saved on MRT Line 1 project Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said that about RM2bn has been saved from the initial targeted cost for the Klang Valley MRT Line 1 project. The project could be implemented at a cost of about RM21bn based on value of all contracts awarded compared with the targeted cost of RM23bn in the initial stage. Phase 1 of MRT Line 1 (Semantan-Sungai Buloh) was launched yesterday and will be free for the public to try out until 16 January 2017. The fares for MRT Line 1 are RM1.00-3.90 after the trial period (Source: Financial Daily). Comments: We believe the RM21bn cost for MRT Line 1 is based on awarded contract cost and does not take into account the variation orders submitted by contractors due to change in scope of works. We understand that most contractors involved in the above-ground works for the MRT Line 1 project did not make money or even incurred losses previously. Hence, they rely on the approval of variation orders to recoup some of the additional costs incurred. In the worst-case scenario that the variation orders are not approved, earnings impact going forward is not significant since most of the additional costs were incurred in previous years. For Gamuda, its project delivery partner (PDP) fee is based on 6% of the actual project cost. If the cost is below the initial estimate that we assumed in our forecasts, there is potential downside to our earnings forecasts in FY17-18E. In the worst-case scenario that no PDP fee will be recognised going forward on MRT Line 1 due to the cost savings, our EPS forecasts will be reduced by 3.8% in FY17E and 0.5% in FY18E. Although there is some risk to our earnings forecasts, we remain positive on Gamuda’s prospects since it has secured the MRT Line 2 project and will be bidding for new railway projects in the pipeline. We reiterate our BUY call with RNAV-based target price of RM5.74. Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 2 of 7
3. 16 December 2016 Outside Malaysia US equities resume advance as financial , phone stocks rally Banks and phone companies pushed US stocks higher for the eighth time in 10 days as investors weighed a rising dollar and prospects of a steeper path for higher borrowing costs next year. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.4% to 2,262.03. The Dow added about 60 points (0.3%) to 19,852. Consumer prices in US increase for fourth consecutive month The cost of living in the US rose for a fourth straight month, adding to signs that inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve’s goal. The consumerprice index climbed 0.2% mom in November (0.4% in October), matching the median estimate of economists, Labor Department figures showed. Jobless claims in US decrease to lowest level in three weeks Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, validating the Federal Reserve’s view of a vigorous labor market. Jobless claims fell by 4,000 to a three-week low of 254,000 in the period ended Dec. 10, a report from the Labor Department showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for 255,000. Euro-area maintains momentum as weaker currency helps factories The euro-area economy maintained its growth momentum in December and there were signs of a pickup in inflationary pressures. A composite Purchasing Managers’ Index held at 53.9 in December, the highest this year and above the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction. A measure of input prices rose to the highest in 5 1/2 years, which Markit blamed on the euro’s depreciation and rising global commodity prices. Bank of England holds rate and says inflation rise may slow in 2017 The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low and noted that the pound’s recent appreciation may mean a slower pickup in inflation next year. The Monetary Policy Committee said sterling’s advance could mean “less of an overshoot” above its 2% goal than previously predicted. It still sees a pickup in price growth and repeated its line that it has limited tolerance for exceeding its target. The MPC, led by Governor Mark Carney, voted to hold the benchmark rate at 0.25% and also unanimously voted to keep its two asset-purchase programs running as planned. Bank of Korea holds key rate to weigh Fed, domestic politics South Korea’s central bank held the nation’s benchmark interest rate unchanged as it monitors risks from parliament’s vote to impeach President Park Geun-hye and the impact of the rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The Bank of Korea kept the seven-day repurchase rate at a record low 1.25% for a sixth month, in line with forecast by Bloomberg. Indonesia keeps key rate unchanged as rupiah slumps on Fed Indonesia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second month as more policy tightening in the US added to the risk of capital outflows from emerging markets. Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board held the seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75%, in line with the forecasts of all but one of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Oil closes near US$51 as Kuwait said to cut sales to US, Europe WTI settled near US$51 a barrel as Kuwait was said to make bigger supply cuts to US and European customers. Brent for February settlement climbed US$0.12 to US$54.02 a barrel. Source: Bloomberg (Lim Yee Ping; 03-2146 7540; yeeping.lim@affinhwang.com) Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 3 of 7
4. 16 December 2016 Market Summary Table 1 : Off Market transactions Price (RM) Vol (m) Val (RMm) Type* 8.10 49.36 399.8 D BIMB 4.27 14.1 60.0 D F&N 23.00 8.4 193.2 D REX 1.65 7.0 11.6 D TENAGA 13.98 6.8 95.1 D SKPETRO 1.39 2.7 3.8 D PETGAS 21.10 2.0 42.2 D FFHB 0.13 1.2 0.2 D Shares HAPSENG Source: Bloomberg Table 2: Shares Buyback/ Resale Company* Date Units Treasury Transaction SUNWAY 16-Dec 102,000 35,976,700 Share Buyback Date Units Transaction - - - * Only FBM100 Component Stocks Source : Bursa Malaysia Table 3: ESOS Company* - - * Only FBM100 Component Stocks Source : Bursa Malaysia Table 4: Entitlements Company Entitlement Ex-Date Lodgement Payment VIZIONE Rights Issue 22-Dec 27-Dec - MYEG MALTON Bonus Issue 28-Dec 30-Dec - Loan Stock Interest 28-Dec 30-Dec 12-Jan-17 Bonus Issue 28-Dec 30-Dec - KOBAY Source : Bursa Malaysia Table 5: Bursa Malaysia Trade Statistics Participation (%) Participant Bought (RMm) Sold (RMm) Net (RMm) Local Institution 61.5 928.6 895.2 33.4 Local Retail 11.7 181.6 166.8 14.8 Foreign 26.8 374.0 422.2 -48.2 Total 100.0 1,484.2 1,484.2 0.0 Source : Bursa Malaysia Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 4 of 7
5. 16 December 2016 Fig 6 : Shareholdings change Date Substantial Shareholder EPF 9-Dec-16 Transaction Acquired 4,550,000 Units Company AIRASIA EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 500,000 AIRPORT EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 800,000 AMMBANK EPF 7-Dec-16 Acquired 3,446,800 CIMB EPF 7-Dec-16 Disposed 2,585,400 CIMB EPF 8-Dec-16 Acquired 200,000 CMSB EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 4,517,500 DIALOG EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 1,455,100 DIGI EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 329,900 F&N EPF 8-Dec-16 Disposed 50,000 F&N EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 298,600 GAMUDA EPF 7 to 9-Dec-16 Acquired 235,300 GENP EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 101,200 GENP EPF 8-Dec-16 Acquired 181,000 HLBANK EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 171,400 HLBANK EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 359,800 IHH EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 1,155,900 IJM EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 1,505,200 INARI EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 162,900 IOICORP EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 119,300 IOIPG EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 235,900 KLK EPF 8 to 9-Dec-16 Disposed 3,560,400 MAYBANK EPF 7-Dec-16 Acquired 23,300 MISC EPF 8-Dec-16 Disposed 883,400 MISC EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 400 NESTLE EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 3,192,800 PBBANK EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 1,400,000 PBBANK EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 3,062,900 PCHEM EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 1,862,100 PCHEM EPF 8-Dec-16 Acquired 160,200 PETGAS EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 600,000 PETGAS EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 200,000 SIME EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 1,530,800 SIME EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 500,000 SKPETRO EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 3,278,320 SKPETRO EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 245,500 SPSETIA EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 267,900 SPSETIA EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 500,000 SUNREIT EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 472,200 TAKAFUL EPF 8 to 9-Dec-16 Acquired 25,328,400 TM TOPGLOV EPF 9-Dec-16 Acquired 56,500 EPF 8 to 9-Dec-16 Disposed 4,281,600 WCT EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 385,900 WPRTS EPF 9-Dec-16 Disposed 2,000,000 YTL Source: Bursa Malaysia Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 5 of 7
6. 16 December 2016 Fig 7 : Dividend Entitlement Stocks Particulars GKENT Second Interim Dividend DPS (sen) Announce Ex-Date Lodge Payment 2.00 5-Dec-16 19-Dec-16 21-Dec-16 13-Jan-17 JCY Interim Dividend 1.25 29-Nov-16 19-Dec-16 21-Dec-16 6-Jan-17 KPJ Interim Dividend 1.50 30-Nov-16 19-Dec-16 21-Dec-16 11-Jan-17 18-Jan-17 YOCB Final Dividend 2.00 24-Oct-16 20-Dec-16 22-Dec-16 ASTRO Interim dividend 3.00 7-Dec-16 21-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 6-Jan-17 Y&G Interim Dividend 5.00 24-Nov-16 21-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 10-Jan-17 PBA First Interim Dividend 1.75 29-Nov-16 21-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 13-Jan-17 WTHORSE Interim Dividend 5.00 2-Dec-16 21-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 10-Jan-17 ASTRO Interim dividend 3.00 7-Dec-16 21-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 6-Jan-17 NOTION Interim Dividend 1.00 24-Nov-16 22-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 16-Jan-17 ASIAFLE Interim Dividend 3.00 2-Dec-16 22-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 19-Jan-17 FBMKLCI-EA Income Distribution 2.80 8-Dec-16 22-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 20-Jan-17 SEEHUP Interim Dividend 2.70 8-Dec-16 22-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 13-Jan-17 SCGM Interim Dividend 2.00 8-Dec-16 22-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 13-Jan-17 MATRIX Interim Dividend 3.25 15-Nov-16 23-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 12-Jan-17 MYEG Final Dividend 1.30 11-Nov-16 23-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 25-Jan-17 PTARAS Final Dividend 12.00 22-Sep-16 23-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 12-Jan-17 SHL First Interim Dividend 6.00 24-Nov-16 23-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 12-Jan-17 PANAMY Interim Dividend 15.00 29-Nov-16 23-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 18-Jan-17 TEXCHEM Interim Dividend 10.00 9-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 10-Jan-17 ULICORP Interim Dividend 3.00 8-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 18-Jan-17 MAGNI Second Interim Dividend 3.00 13-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 13-Jan-17 13-Jan-17 MAGNI Single Tier Special Dividend 2.00 13-Dec-16 27-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 CHEEWAH First and Final Dividend 3.50 27-Oct-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 9-Jan-17 SCIENTX Final Dividend 10.00 27-Sep-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 31-Jan-17 IQGROUP Interim Dividend 5.00 17-Nov-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 25-Jan-17 PTRANS Second Interim Dividend 0.15 17-Nov-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 24-Jan-17 PRLEXUS Final Dividend 1.75 23-Nov-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 17-Jan-17 UCHITEC Interim Dividend 5.00 8-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 24-Jan-17 ADVPKG Interim Dividend 6.00 9-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 19-Jan-17 KRETAM Interim Dividend 1.00 13-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 16-Jan-17 PLABS Interim Dividend 0.70 13-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 24-Jan-17 PESTECH Final Dividend 3.00 16-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 27-Jan-17 BIMB Interim Dividend DSONIC Second Interim Dividend 13.00 16-Dec-16 28-Dec-16 30-Dec-16 27-Jan-17 1.00 16-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 3-Dec-16 13-Jan-17 SUCCESS Interim Dividend 5.00 16-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 3-Jan-17 31-Jan-17 SUPERLN Interim Dividend 2.50 16-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 3-Jan-17 19-Jan-17 FLBHD Interim Dividend 6.00 16-Dec-16 29-Dec-16 3-Jan-17 16-Jan-17 IMASPRO First and Final Dividend 3.50 24-Oct-16 30-Dec-16 4-Jan-17 17-Jan-17 GREENYB Final Dividend 0.60 23-Nov-16 30-Dec-16 4-Jan-17 16-Jan-17 FACBIND Final Dividend 2.50 27-Oct-16 3-Jan-17 5-Jan-17 19-Jan-17 HIAPTEK Final Dividend 0.30 22-Nov-16 4-Jan-17 6-Jan-17 25-Jan-17 SCC Interim Dividend 5.00 24-Nov-16 4-Jan-17 6-Jan-17 20-Jan-17 BAUTO Second Interim Dividend 2.75 8-Dec-16 5-Jan-17 9-Jan-17 25-Jan-17 KESM Final Dividend 3.00 25-Oct-16 6-Jan-17 10-Jan-17 26-Jan-17 TOPGLOV Final Dividend 8.50 11-Nov-16 6-Jan-17 10-Jan-17 23-Jan-17 PRTASCO Interim Dividend 3.00 24-Nov-16 9-Jan-17 11-Jan-17 23-Jan-17 25-Jan-17 VS Final Dividend 0.80 29-Nov-16 10-Jan-17 12-Jan-17 ELKDESA Interim Dividend 3.25 10-Nov-16 16-Jan-17 18-Jan-17 8-Feb-17 BENALEC Final Dividend 0.70 7-Oct-16 18-Jan-17 20-Jan-17 10-Feb-17 PRESTAR Interim Dividend 1.00 24-Nov-16 19-Jan-17 23-Jan-17 16-Feb-17 TAMBUN Interim Dividend 3.00 17-Nov-16 24-Jan-17 26-Jan-17 16-Feb-17 16-Feb-17 OLDTOWN Interim Dividend 3.00 24-Nov-16 25-Jan-17 27-Jan-17 POHKONG First and Final Dividend 1.00 18-Nov-16 14-Feb-17 16-Feb-17 9-Mar-17 BKAWAN Final Dividend 40.00 16-Nov-16 20-Feb-17 22-Feb-17 16-Mar-17 KLK Final Dividend 35.00 16-Nov-16 20-Feb-17 22-Feb-17 14-Mar-17 SYF First and Final Dividend 1.00 29-Nov-16 13-Mar-17 15-Mar-17 29-Mar-17 Source: Bursa Malaysia Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 6 of 7
7. 16 December 2016 Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +10% over a 12-month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% and +10% over a 12-month period SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% over a 12-month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad) (“the Company”) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company’s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company’s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development Fund-Bursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd Chulan Tower Branch, 3rd Floor, Chulan Tower, No 3, Jalan Conlay, 50450 Kuala Lumpur. www.affinhwang.com Email : research@affinhwang.com Tel : + 603 2143 8668 Fax : + 603 2145 3005 Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U) Page 7 of 7