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Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - May 2022

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Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - May 2022

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  1. I   Inflation Monitor May 2022 (Base Year: 2015-16) State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department
  2. II   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from Bloomberg, Trading Economics, IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis                http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor
  3. State Bank of Pakistan Table of Contents 1 . Inflation in Brief ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Heat-maps of CPI inflation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3 3. Trends in Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 4. Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages) .............................................................................................................................................. 8 5. Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month) .............................................................................................................................................. 9 6. Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation ......................................................................................................................................... 11 7. Weighted Contribution .................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 8. Inflation Diffusion Index ................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 9. Domestic Commodity Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................... 18 10. Inflation in Global Context ........................................................................................................................................................................ 19 11. Global Commodity Prices .......................................................................................................................................................................... 20 12. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21 List of Tables................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Table A0: Inflation – Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Table A1: National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) ..................................................................................................... 27 Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) ......................................................................................................... 27 Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) .......................................................................................................... 28 Table A4: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) – May 2022 ................................................................................................ 29 Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in May 2022 ............................................................................................. 30 Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in May 2022 .................................................................... 31 Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in May 2022 .................................................................. 32 Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in May 2022 ........................................................... 33 Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in May 2022 .................................................. 34 Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in May 2022.............................................................................................. 35 Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in May 2022 ............................................................................................ 36 Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in May 2022 ................................................................... 37 Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in May 2022 ................................................................. 38 Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in May 2022 .......................................................... 39 Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in May 2022.................................................. 40 Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: May 2022 ........................................................................... 41 Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: May 2022 ............................................................................ 42 Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: May 2022 ..................................................................................................... 43 Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted ....................................................................................................... 45 Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted........................................................................................................... 46 Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted ............................................................................................................ 47 Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors ..................................................................................................................... 48 Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors......................................................................................................................... 48 Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors .......................................................................................................................... 49 Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted ............................................................................................. 50 Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series ..................................................................................... 51 Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series ...................................................................................... 52 List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 53 III
  4. IV   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent)............................................................................................ 53 Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ............................................................................................... 54 Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ................................................................................................ 55 Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) ........................................................................................ 56 Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY).......................................................................................... 57 Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM)....................................................................................... 58 Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) ........................................................................................ 59 Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY) ...................................................................................... 60 Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies ..................................................................................................................................................... 61 Technical Notes ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan ............................................................................................................... 62
  5. State Bank of Pakistan Team  Mazhar Hussain Sr. Joint Director mazhar.hussain@sbp.org.pk  Syed Aamir Ali Bokhari Joint Director syed.aamir2@sbp.org.pk  Haider Ali Deputy Director haider.ali@sbp.org.pk V
  7. State Bank of Pakistan 1 . Inflation in Brief 1. National CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 13.8 percent in May 2022 from 13.4 percent in previous month. It stood at 10.9 percent in the corresponding month of last year. However, on monthon-month basis (MoM), National CPI Inflation decreased to 0.4 percent in May 2022 from 1.6 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.1 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 2. Urban CPI Inflation (year-on-year basis) increased from 12.2 percent in April 2022 to 12.4 percent in May 2022. It stood at 10.8 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Urban CPI Inflation (month-on-month basis) decreased from 1.6 percent in April 2022 to 0.3 percent in May 2022. It stood at 0.2 percent in the corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI Inflation recorded at 0.8 percent in May 2022 compared to 1.0 percent in the previous month. 3. Rural CPI Inflation (year-on-year basis) increased to 15.9 percent in May 2022 from 15.1 percent in previous month. It was recorded 10.9 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Rural CPI Inflation (month-on-month basis) decreased to 0.6 percent in May 2022 from 1.6 percent in the previous month. Seasonally adjusted (month-on-month) CPI Inflation recorded at 1.2 percent in May 2022 compared to 1.6 percent in previous month. 4. Urban Core Inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis increased from 10.5 percent in April 2022 to 10.7 percent in May 2022. It stood at 10.0 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, Urban Core Inflation (trimmed) decreased to 0.8 percent in May 2022 from 0.9 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 5. Rural Core Inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis increased to 14.1 percent in May 2022 from 12.8 percent in April 2022. It was recorded 10.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, Rural Core Inflation (trimmed) stood at 1.4 percent in May 2022 as compared to 0.9 percent in previous month and 0.4 percent during corresponding month of last year. 6. Urban Core (Non-food, Non-energy (NFNE)) Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 9.7 percent in May 2022 from 9.1 percent in previous month. It stood at 6.8 percent during corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, Urban Core (NFNE) Inflation decreased to 0.7 percent in May 2022 from 1.1 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 7. Rural Core (Non-food, Non-energy (NFNE)) Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 11.5 percent in May 2022 from 10.9 percent in previous month. It stood at 7.6 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, it decreased to 0.9 percent in May 2022 from 1.2 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 8. WPI Inflation on year-on-year basis increased from 28.1 percent in April 2022 to 29.6 percent in May 2022. It stood at 19.4 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, it decreased to 1.4 percent in May 2022 from 3.2 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 1
  8. 2   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 9. SPI Inflation on year-on-year basis decreased to 16.1 percent in May 2022 from 16.5 percent in previous month. During corresponding month of last year, SPI Inflation stood at 16.9 percent. On month-onmonth basis, SPI Inflation decreased to 0.6 percent in May 2022 as compared to 1.1 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.9 percent during the corresponding month of last year.
  9. State Bank of Pakistan 2 . Heat-maps of CPI inflation Heat map visually elaborates the evolution of inflation. A heat-map for National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (YoY and MoM) and their important sub-indices for the time span of last thirteen months is presented. The observed inflation is compared with the revised benchmark of inflation target of 13.3 percent for FY22. Green areas indicate low inflation pressures and increasing order of red (light to dark color spectrum i.e. green to orange to brown to red) represents higher and higher inflationary pressures. Heat-map of National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (YoY) National Headline Urban Rural Urban Food Rural Urban Core Rural May-21 10.9 10.8 10.9 15.3 12.8 6.8 7.6 Jun-21 9.7 9.6 9.7 11.0 9.8 6.7 7.3 Jul-21 8.4 8.7 8.0 9.4 7.3 6.9 6.9 Aug-21 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.2 9.1 6.3 6.2 Sep-21 9.0 9.1 8.8 10.8 9.1 6.4 6.2 Oct-21 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.4 7.2 6.7 6.7 Nov-21 11.5 12.0 10.9 11.9 8.6 7.6 8.2 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 12.3 13.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 13.8 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.4 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 15.1 15.9 11.7 13.3 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.5 9.0 11.8 14.6 15.5 17.7 19.0 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.9 9.1 9.7 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.3 10.9 11.5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates Key <6 8.5 >10 Heat-map of National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (MoM) National Headline Urban Rural Urban Food Rural Urban Core Rural May-21 0.1 0.2 -0.03 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Jun-21 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -0.8 0.3 0.4 Jul-21 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.7 Aug-21 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 Sep-21 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 3.7 0.4 0.5 Oct-21 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 0.9 1.0 Nov-21 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 1.1 1.8 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 -0.02 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.3 -0.5 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.6 -2.3 -0.8 2.2 1.8 3.7 1.0 -3.1 0.4 2.6 2.3 2.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates Key <0.00 0.75 >1.50 Heat-map of National CPI inflation (YoY) Weights May-21 General 100.00 10.9 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 34.58 14.8 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.02 5.0 Clothing and Footwear 8.60 10.7 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 23.63 8.4 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 9.6 Health 2.79 9.0 Transport 5.91 14.0 Communication 2.21 1.5 Recreation and Culture 1.59 4.9 Education 3.79 1.6 Restaurants and Hotels 6.92 8.6 Misc. Goods and Services 4.87 10.7 Jun-21 9.7 10.5 5.0 10.0 9.1 9.8 9.4 16.4 1.6 6.2 1.8 8.8 10.9 Jul-21 8.4 8.2 3.1 9.5 9.2 9.8 8.6 10.5 2.8 5.9 2.0 8.5 9.4 Aug-21 8.4 10.0 2.1 9.3 8.0 9.6 8.5 8.1 2.8 6.4 2.9 7.3 5.9 <6 Sep-21 9.0 10.2 2.0 9.2 9.8 9.3 8.0 9.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.8 7.4 Oct-21 9.2 8.3 1.9 9.3 12.0 9.2 8.0 14.4 2.8 7.5 2.2 8.3 8.7 Nov-21 11.5 10.5 1.8 9.8 14.8 10.4 8.5 24.4 2.5 7.5 2.4 11.0 10.0 8.5 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 12.3 13.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 13.8 10.3 12.8 14.7 15.3 17.0 17.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 5.1 10.1 11.2 11.2 9.7 9.7 10.8 11.3 16.6 15.5 9.0 8.3 7.1 5.8 12.3 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.7 16.1 9.4 9.2 10.1 10.0 10.4 10.6 24.1 23.1 25.0 26.3 28.3 31.8 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 1.6 1.8 7.7 7.8 8.2 9.3 9.7 12.3 2.8 3.2 3.4 8.3 8.4 9.5 12.6 13.0 14.4 14.6 14.6 16.0 10.6 10.3 10.1 12.4 12.8 13.3 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10 3
  10. 4   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (YoY) Weights May-21 General 100.00 10.8 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.42 16.3 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.85 6.1 Clothing and Footwear 8.01 11.2 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 27.03 7.9 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.09 8.8 Health 2.31 9.6 Transport 6.14 14.2 Communication 2.35 2.0 Recreation and Culture 1.73 3.4 Education 4.88 1.2 Restaurants and Hotels 7.41 9.1 Misc. Goods and Services 4.77 10.8 Jun-21 9.6 11.1 6.1 10.5 8.4 8.9 10.3 17.0 2.0 5.1 1.3 9.4 10.9 Jul-21 8.7 9.2 3.8 10.4 8.5 9.5 9.5 11.4 3.8 5.4 1.5 9.5 9.3 Aug-21 8.3 10.6 2.8 10.3 7.2 9.4 9.1 8.8 3.8 5.5 2.5 7.6 6.1 Sep-21 9.1 11.1 2.6 10.0 8.9 9.5 8.7 9.7 3.8 6.3 2.3 8.5 8.0 Oct-21 9.6 9.4 2.1 10.2 11.1 9.1 8.4 15.0 3.8 7.6 1.9 8.6 9.3 <6 Nov-21 12.0 12.2 1.9 9.5 13.6 10.0 9.3 25.7 3.4 7.5 2.2 11.4 10.1 8.5 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.4 11.7 13.6 14.5 14.8 16.0 15.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 4.8 9.4 12.2 12.4 9.4 9.6 10.5 11.0 15.4 14.2 7.8 7.1 5.6 4.4 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.6 13.5 15.2 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.3 10.3 25.0 23.4 24.8 26.3 28.6 32.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.0 2.3 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.7 8.9 11.9 2.6 3.0 3.2 9.0 9.2 10.4 13.2 13.2 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.5 10.4 10.1 9.6 11.9 12.0 12.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (YoY) Weights May-21 General 100.00 10.9 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.87 13.2 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.28 3.8 Clothing and Footwear 9.48 10.0 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 18.49 9.7 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 10.8 Health 3.51 8.4 Transport 5.56 13.5 Communication 1.99 0.8 Recreation and Culture 1.38 7.5 Education 2.13 2.9 Restaurants and Hotels 6.19 7.6 Misc. Goods and Services 5.02 10.6 Jun-21 9.7 9.8 3.8 9.3 10.7 11.0 8.6 15.5 0.9 8.0 3.6 7.7 10.9 Jul-21 8.0 7.2 2.4 8.4 10.6 10.3 7.7 9.0 1.0 6.9 4.1 6.8 9.5 Aug-21 8.4 9.3 1.4 8.1 9.7 10.0 7.8 6.9 1.0 8.0 4.5 6.9 5.7 Sep-21 8.8 9.3 1.3 8.2 11.6 8.9 7.3 8.2 0.9 7.9 4.1 6.6 6.5 Oct-21 8.7 7.1 1.6 8.2 14.0 9.3 7.5 13.4 1.0 7.3 3.2 7.6 7.9 <6 Nov-21 10.9 8.7 1.7 10.1 17.5 11.0 7.8 22.3 0.8 7.5 3.2 10.3 9.7 8.5 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 15.1 15.9 8.9 12.0 15.0 15.9 18.2 19.0 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 5.5 11.0 10.1 9.7 10.0 9.8 11.3 11.7 19.2 18.5 11.6 11.1 10.3 9.1 13.7 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.5 8.7 8.3 10.0 10.0 10.4 10.9 22.5 22.5 25.4 26.2 27.9 31.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 7.3 7.4 8.5 10.5 11.0 13.0 3.5 3.7 4.4 5.6 5.1 6.0 11.5 12.6 13.3 14.6 14.7 18.5 10.7 10.8 10.7 13.1 13.9 14.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Heat-map of National CPI inflation (MoM) Weights May-21 General 100.00 0.1 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 34.58 0.7 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.02 0.2 Clothing and Footwear 8.60 0.3 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 23.63 -1.2 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 0.5 Health 2.79 0.3 Transport 5.91 0.1 Communication 2.21 0.0 Recreation and Culture 1.59 0.4 Education 3.79 0.0 Restaurants and Hotels 6.92 0.6 Misc. Goods and Services 4.87 0.7 Jun-21 -0.3 -1.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 Jul-21 1.3 1.8 -0.1 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 4.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.6 Aug-21 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.3 Sep-21 2.1 4.0 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.1 1.4 <0.00 Oct-21 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.5 2.4 0.8 0.7 5.3 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.3 Nov-21 3.0 3.9 0.2 1.9 2.4 1.6 1.2 6.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 3.5 1.8 0.75 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.4 -3.4 -0.5 2.5 2.3 3.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 4.9 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.1 0.7 2.8 1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.7 -2.3 2.3 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.7 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.0 3.6 0.3 0.4 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.7 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 0.8 1.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50   Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (MoM) Weights May-21 General 100.00 0.2 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.42 1.1 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.85 0.2 Clothing and Footwear 8.01 0.1 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 27.03 -1.1 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.09 0.5 Health 2.31 0.5 Transport 6.14 0.1 Communication 2.35 0.0 Recreation and Culture 1.73 0.2 Education 4.88 0.0 Restaurants and Hotels 7.41 0.6 Misc. Goods and Services 4.77 0.8 Jun-21 -0.4 -2.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.0 1.8 0.1 0.8 0.9 Jul-21 1.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.2 4.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 Aug-21 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.5 Sep-21 2.0 4.0 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 1.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 1.4 <0.00 Oct-21 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.6 5.3 0.1 1.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 Nov-21 2.9 4.3 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.1 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.5 1.7 0.75 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.3 -3.0 -1.1 2.3 2.1 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.3 4.6 2.9 0.7 1.3 0.9 2.0 0.5 2.6 0.6 -1.6 -2.2 -0.6 -2.3 1.8 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.3 0.4 3.4 0.5 0.6 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.2 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.7 0.6 1.1 2.3 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 0.7 1.1 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  11. 5 State Bank of Pakistan   Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (MoM) Weights May-21 General 100.00 0.0 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.87 0.2 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.28 0.2 Clothing and Footwear 9.48 0.5 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 18.49 -1.4 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 0.6 Health 3.51 0.1 Transport 5.56 0.1 Communication 1.99 0.0 Recreation and Culture 1.38 0.8 Education 2.13 0.0 Restaurants and Hotels 6.19 0.6 Misc. Goods and Services 5.02 0.5 Jun-21 -0.1 -0.9 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.1 Jul-21 1.4 1.8 -0.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 3.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 Aug-21 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 Sep-21 2.3 4.1 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.3 Oct-21 2.2 2.7 0.5 0.6 2.7 1.0 0.7 5.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.9 1.9 <0.00 Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (YoY) Weights May-21 Rural 100.00 10.9 Food 45.95 12.8 Non-perishable 40.16 16.9 Perishable 5.79 -8.2 Non Food 54.05 9.2 Energy 11.41 16.0 NFNE (Core) 42.64 7.6 HRI 8.61 6.6 Core Excl HRI 34.03 7.8 Jun-21 9.7 9.8 12.2 -5.5 9.7 19.8 7.3 6.6 7.5 Jul-21 8.0 7.3 10.3 -9.7 8.7 15.7 6.9 6.1 7.1 Aug-21 8.4 9.1 9.9 5.4 7.7 13.8 6.2 6.1 6.3 Sep-21 8.8 9.1 12.3 -6.8 8.5 17.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 Jun-21 9.6 11.0 13.5 -2.5 8.8 21.1 6.7 6.2 7.0 Jul-21 8.7 9.4 12.7 -8.7 8.2 16.1 6.9 6.1 7.3 Aug-21 8.3 10.2 12.2 1.7 7.2 12.2 6.3 6.1 6.4 Oct-21 8.7 7.2 11.2 -12.5 10.0 23.2 6.7 6.6 6.7 Oct-21 9.6 9.4 13.2 -8.9 9.7 25.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 <6 Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (MoM) Weights May-21 Jun-21 Rural 100.00 0.0 -0.1 Food 45.95 0.2 -0.8 Non-perishable 40.16 1.8 -1.0 Perishable 5.79 -10.2 -0.3 Non Food 54.05 -0.3 0.6 Energy 11.41 -2.4 1.1 NFNE (Core) 42.64 0.3 0.4 HRI 8.61 0.0 0.0 Core Excl HRI 34.03 0.4 0.5 Jul-21 1.4 1.6 0.4 12.1 1.2 3.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 Aug-21 0.7 0.8 0.5 3.3 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 Nov-21 12.0 11.9 15.3 -1.9 12.0 37.2 7.6 6.6 8.1 8.5 Sep-21 2.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 1.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.6 <0.00     Nov-21 10.9 8.6 11.7 -5.5 13.0 32.0 8.2 6.6 8.6 8.5 Sep-21 9.1 10.8 15.3 -9.6 8.1 17.8 6.4 6.1 6.5 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 -0.5 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.6 -3.7 0.2 2.8 2.5 3.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 5.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.3 0.9 3.2 1.9 -1.4 -2.3 -0.8 -2.5 3.1 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 0.9 2.5 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.0 0.8 2.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.3 3.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates 0.75 <6 Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (YoY) Weights May-21 100.00 10.8 Urban Food 36.80 15.3 Non-perishable 32.34 19.3 Perishable 4.46 -0.2 Non Food 63.20 8.3 Energy 9.47 16.6 NFNE (Core) 53.73 6.8 HRI 19.26 6.2 Core Excl HRI 34.47 7.2 Nov-21 3.1 3.6 0.1 2.6 3.3 2.0 1.3 5.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 2.0 Oct-21 2.2 2.6 2.0 7.1 1.9 5.2 1.0 1.3 1.0 Nov-21 3.1 3.3 1.8 14.5 3.0 7.0 1.8 0.0 2.2 0.75 >1.50   Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 15.1 15.9 9.0 11.8 14.6 15.5 17.7 19.0 12.8 12.8 12.4 13.7 15.8 17.0 -12.0 6.6 35.8 32.8 34.4 33.7 14.0 13.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 34.0 32.7 21.9 20.4 19.8 19.3 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.3 10.9 11.5 6.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.7 9.5 9.7 10.3 11.4 12.2 12.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.4 11.7 13.3 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.5 15.5 14.7 11.8 13.0 14.4 15.0 -8.7 6.3 34.1 28.0 25.6 20.6 13.4 12.8 9.9 10.4 10.2 10.4 41.3 38.1 20.2 18.0 15.7 14.1 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.9 9.1 9.7 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.6 5.6 9.2 9.3 8.7 10.5 11.0 11.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 -0.5 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.6 -3.1 0.4 2.6 2.3 2.8 1.3 -0.4 1.0 1.4 2.8 0.6 2.8 -21.8 -5.1 13.3 0.5 20.0 -10.7 1.9 1.4 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.0 4.4 1.9 -0.9 -4.0 -1.8 -2.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  12. 6   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (MoM) Weights May-21 Jun-21 Urban 100.00 0.2 -0.4 Food 36.80 1.1 -1.9 Non-perishable 32.34 2.5 -2.3 Perishable 4.46 -7.1 -3.9 Non Food 63.20 -0.3 0.5 Energy 9.47 -3.2 1.3 NFNE (Core) 53.73 0.2 0.3 HRI 19.26 0.0 0.0 Core Excl HRI 34.47 0.3 0.5 Jul-21 1.3 1.5 0.8 7.3 1.1 3.5 0.8 1.4 0.4 Aug-21 0.5 0.5 0.3 2.0 0.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 Sep-21 2.0 3.6 4.2 2.6 1.1 4.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 <0.00                                               Oct-21 1.7 1.5 1.0 5.2 1.8 6.0 0.9 1.4 0.6 Nov-21 2.9 3.9 2.4 15.1 2.2 7.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 0.75 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.3 -2.3 -0.8 2.2 1.8 3.7 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 2.6 1.7 3.1 -20.2 -5.4 14.7 -1.1 20.8 -10.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 5.8 -0.4 -2.3 -5.9 -3.4 -4.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.7 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.1 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  13.     g: SPI 30 20 10 0 -10 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 25 Jan-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 10 5 0 -5 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 1 0 -1 20 15 10 5 2 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 -5 0 Percent 15 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Sep-21 20 May-22 f: WPI -5 Apr-22 40 -3 Feb-22 -2 Mar-22 -5 Jan-22 0 -1 Feb-22 0 Dec-21 5 Dec-21 1 Oct-21 10 Nov-21 3 Oct-21 15 Jan-22 YoY Nov-21 d: Urban NFNE Oct-21 -5 Sep-21 -3 Sep-21 -5 Aug-21 -2 0 Aug-21 0 Aug-21 -1 Jul-21 0 Jul-21 1 Jul-21 15 2 Jun-21 b: Urban CPI Jun-21 3 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 a: National CPI Jun-21 5 May-21 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 10 May-21 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 20 May-21 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Percent   State Bank of Pakistan 7 3. Trends in Inflation Fig 3.1: Summary of Inflation Trends (in percent) MoM (RHS) 4 3 2 -2 -3 -4 c: Rural CPI 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 e: Rural NFNE 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
  14.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 4. Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages) Fig 4.1: Movements in Price Indices (12 months moving average (12mma) in percent) National Urban Rural WPI SPI 25 20 15 10 5 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 0 May-20 8
  15. 9 State Bank of Pakistan   5. Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month) Fig 5.1: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) National CPI Urban CPI Rural CPI WPI SPI 6 5 4 3 Percent 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 May-22 Mar-22 Jan-22 Nov-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 May-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Sep-20 Jul-20 May-20 Mar-20 Jan-20 Nov-19 Sep-19 Jul-19 May-19 -6   Fig 5.2: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) - Urban CPI Basket CPI Food Non-Food NFNE Trimmed 6 5 4 3 Percent 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 May-22 Mar-22 Jan-22 Nov-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 May-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Sep-20 Jul-20 May-20 Mar-20 Jan-20 Nov-19 Sep-19 Jul-19 May-19 -6      
  16. Inflation Monitor , May 2022 Fig 5.3: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) - Rural CPI Basket CPI Food Non-Food NFNE Trimmed 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 May-22 Mar-22 Jan-22 Nov-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 May-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Sep-20 Jul-20 May-20 Mar-20 Jan-20 Nov-19 Sep-19 Jul-19 -6 May-19   Percent 10
  17. State Bank of Pakistan 6 . Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation Monthly Consumer Price Indices, YoY growth rates and inflation build up over June along with seasonally adjusted (MoM) growth rates in CPI (National, Urban and Rural) is summarized in the following graphs (Figure 6.1 to 6.3). 6.1. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (National CPI) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 16 14 160 Percent 150 12 10 8 140 6 130 4 Apr May Jun Apr Jun 2020-21 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct 2019-20 2021-22 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June 16 3.0 14 2.5 2.0 Percent 12 10 8 1.5 1.0 0.5 6 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2019-20 2020-21 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec -1.5 Nov 0 Oct -1.0 Sep 2 Aug -0.5 Aug 0.0 4 Jul Percent Sep Jul Jun May Apr Mar 2021-22 May 2020-21 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 2019-20 Aug 2 120 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100). 170 2021-22 11
  18. Inflation Monitor , May 2022 6.2. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (Urban CPI Basket) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 170 14 160 12 Percent 150 10 8 140 6 130 4 Apr May Jun Jun Mar Feb Jan 2020-21 May 2019-20 Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Jun Apr May Mar 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Aug 2019-20 Aug 2 120 2021-22 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June 3.0 14 2.5 12 2.0 Percent 10 8 1.5 1.0 0.5 6 0.0 4 -0.5 2 -1.0 2020-21 2021-22 2019-20 Mar Jan 2020-21 Feb Dec Nov Oct Sep -1.5 Aug Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Oct 2019-20 Nov Sep Aug Jul 0 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100).   Percent 12 2021-22
  19. State Bank of Pakistan   6.3. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (Rural CPI Basket) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 18 16 170 14 Percent 160 150 12 10 8 6 140 4 130 2 Apr May Jun May Jun Mar Feb Jan Dec Oct Nov 2020-21 2021-22 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation 18 3.5 16 3.0 14 2.5 2.0 12 10 Percent 8 6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2019-20 2020-21 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep -1.5 Aug -1.0 0 Jul 2 Sep -0.5 Aug Percent Sep 2019-20 c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June     Aug Jun May Apr Mar 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 2019-20 Jul 0 120 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100). 180 2021-22 13
  20. 14   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 7. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall urban CPI inflation decreased to 48.2 percent during May 2022 from 48.5 percent in previous month. It was 52.0 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group increased to 51.7 percent in May 2022 from 51.5 percent in previous month. Weighted Contribution of non-food was 48.0 percent during corresponding month of last year. Table 7.1 provide the historical perspective of weighted contribution of food and non-food group and their respective sub-indices (Perishable food, Non-Perishable food, Energy, Core Inflation (NFNE), NFNE excluding HRI and HRI) in the overall inflation for urban basket. Table 7.1 Weighted Contribution (in percent) to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) Food Group Non-Food Group Overall CPI Food Perishable food NonPerishable food Non-food Energy Core Inflation (NFNE) NFNE excl HRI HRI a=(b+e) b=(c+d) c d e=(f+g) f g=(h+i) h i May-21 100.0 52.0 -0.1 52.1 48.0 13.9 34.1 23.2 10.9 Jun-21 100.0 43.0 -1.2 44.2 57.1 19.4 37.8 25.5 12.3 Period Jul-21 100.0 40.8 -5.2 46.0 59.2 17.3 41.9 28.7 13.2 Aug-21 100.0 45.7 1.0 44.7 54.3 14.3 40.0 26.4 13.6 Sep-21 100.0 44.7 -5.6 50.4 55.3 18.7 36.7 24.4 12.3 Oct-21 100.0 37.9 -5.1 43.0 62.1 25.4 36.7 24.0 12.8 Nov-21 100.0 38.6 -0.9 39.5 61.4 28.6 32.8 22.7 10.1 Dec-21 100.0 35.0 -3.4 38.5 65.0 30.8 34.2 24.6 9.5 Jan-22 100.0 38.2 2.0 36.2 61.8 28.4 33.4 24.5 8.9 Feb-22 100.0 46.1 10.9 35.2 54.0 18.7 35.3 25.5 9.8 Mar-22 100.0 45.6 8.9 36.7 54.4 15.3 39.1 29.7 9.4 Apr-22 100.0 48.5 9.6 38.9 51.5 12.7 38.7 30.4 8.4 May-22 100.0 48.2 7.1 41.1 51.7 10.9 40.9 32.6 8.3 Note: The weighted contribution of sub-indices may not exactly tally with the weighted contribution of overall CPI index due to rounding off For rural basket, the weighted contribution of food group in the overall rural CPI inflation increased to 56.7 percent during May 2022 from 55.5 percent in previous month. It was 54.9 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group decreased to 43.3 percent in May 2022 from 44.5 percent in previous month. Weighted contribution of non-food group was 45.1 percent during corresponding month of last year. Table 7.2 provide the historical perspective of weighted contribution of food (Perishable food, Non-Perishable food) and non-food group (Energy, Core Inflation (NFNE), NFNE excluding HRI and HRI) in the overall inflation for rural basket.
  21. State Bank of Pakistan Table 7 .2 Weighted Contribution (in percent) to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) Food Group Non-Food Group Overall CPI Food Perishable food NonPerishable food Non-food Energy Core Inflation (NFNE) NFNE excl HRI HRI a=(b+e) b=(c+d) c d e=(f+g) f g=(h+i) h i May-21 100.0 54.9 -4.6 59.5 45.1 15.2 29.8 24.7 5.2 Jun-21 100.0 47.4 -3.3 50.7 52.6 20.4 32.2 26.5 5.7 Period Jul-21 100.0 43.4 -8.0 51.4 56.6 20.4 36.2 29.9 6.3 Aug-21 100.0 51.1 3.7 47.4 48.8 17.7 31.2 25.2 6.0 Sep-21 100.0 49.5 -5.2 54.8 50.4 20.8 29.6 24.0 5.6 Oct-21 100.0 40.8 -10.9 51.7 59.2 27.7 31.5 25.3 6.2 Nov-21 100.0 39.2 -4.0 43.2 60.8 30.1 30.8 25.9 4.9 Dec-21 100.0 37.2 -6.9 44.1 62.8 31.2 31.6 27.0 4.6 Jan-22 100.0 43.2 2.7 40.5 56.8 27.7 29.1 25.3 3.8 Feb-22 100.0 51.3 12.4 38.9 48.7 19.2 29.5 25.8 3.6 Mar-22 100.0 52.6 11.2 41.5 47.4 16.7 30.7 27.2 3.5 Apr-22 100.0 55.5 12.7 42.8 44.5 14.6 29.9 26.8 3.1 May-22 100.0 56.7 10.6 46.1 43.3 13.2 30.1 27.1 3.0 Note: The weighted contribution of sub-indices may not exactly tally with the weighted contribution of overall CPI index due to rounding off 15
  22. 16   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 8. Inflation Diffusion Index Inflation diffusion index (IDI) is the difference (MoM change) between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e. depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation) in CPI basket for which prices have reported. IDI for urban and rural baskets (CPI, Core and twelve groups) is presented in Table 8.1(a & b) for the last thirteen months. Table 8.1(a) Inflation Diffusion Index for Urban CPI Basket - based on MoM change Groups May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 General 42.1 47.2 52.2 51.7 57.6 60.1 70.2 63.2 57.6 60.1 60.1 57.3 61.2 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.9 30.0 38.9 40.0 55.6 41.1 42.2 34.4 40.0 46.7 34.4 44.4 37.8 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 66.7 33.3 0.0 0.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 66.7 33.3 33.3 66.7 100.0 Clothing & Footwear 55.0 47.5 47.5 45.0 50.0 55.0 80.0 85.0 77.5 77.5 70.0 67.5 72.5 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels -6.9 27.6 58.6 41.4 58.6 72.4 72.4 69.0 13.8 3.4 10.3 17.2 20.7 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc. 81.0 71.4 83.3 78.6 83.3 88.1 90.5 88.1 88.1 90.5 90.5 90.5 97.6 Health 61.3 64.5 54.8 74.2 54.8 51.6 64.5 90.3 71.0 87.1 77.4 74.2 61.3 Transport 25.0 31.3 37.5 46.9 40.6 50.0 93.8 53.1 62.5 62.5 59.4 40.6 53.1 Communication 0.0 20.0 60.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Recreation & Culture 24.0 64.0 68.0 56.0 48.0 72.0 68.0 24.0 36.0 36.0 68.0 44.0 76.0 Education 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 56.3 81.3 68.8 31.3 37.5 75.0 43.8 50.0 Restaurant & Hotels 85.7 71.4 71.4 57.1 64.3 85.7 85.7 100.0 78.6 92.9 78.6 78.6 92.9 Miscellaneous 79.3 75.9 58.6 69.0 89.7 82.8 96.6 86.2 89.7 86.2 100.0 89.7 96.6 NFNE 51.1 54.9 57.4 56.2 59.1 66.0 80.9 75.3 67.2 69.4 76.6 67.2 72.8
  23. State Bank of Pakistan   Table 8.1(b) Inflation Diffusion Index for Rural CPI Basket - based on MoM change Groups May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 General 32.0 43.9 44.3 41.0 54.1 66.8 61.9 56.1 57.4 59.4 52.0 54.9 59.0 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 13.9 20.3 29.1 27.8 41.8 49.4 29.1 21.5 44.3 45.6 41.8 32.9 40.5 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 60.0 60.0 -20.0 0.0 40.0 80.0 40.0 80.0 60.0 100.0 0.0 80.0 100.0 Clothing & Footwear 74.1 44.4 55.6 25.9 74.1 81.5 96.3 96.3 70.4 92.6 74.1 92.6 88.9 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & -13.0 other Fuels 39.1 73.9 60.9 65.2 91.3 87.0 73.9 17.4 4.3 0.0 26.1 26.1 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc. 61.5 76.9 80.8 61.5 57.7 84.6 88.5 96.2 92.3 92.3 84.6 80.8 84.6 Health 42.9 78.6 14.3 64.3 42.9 57.1 71.4 78.6 64.3 78.6 42.9 71.4 42.9 Transport 37.5 68.8 62.5 43.8 62.5 68.8 81.3 43.8 62.5 62.5 37.5 50.0 68.8 Communication 0.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Recreation & Culture 23.1 38.5 30.8 53.8 53.8 61.5 53.8 15.4 38.5 53.8 69.2 30.8 76.9 Education 0.0 60.0 80.0 60.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 60.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 Restaurant & Hotels 57.1 28.6 28.6 28.6 64.3 78.6 85.7 85.7 78.6 57.1 78.6 57.1 71.4 Miscellaneous 47.1 70.6 41.2 58.8 88.2 88.2 88.2 82.4 94.1 76.5 88.2 94.1 76.5 NFNE 46.3 59.6 53.7 47.8 57.4 71.3 75.0 72.1 67.6 71.3 66.9 74.3 69.9     17
  24. 18   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 9. Domestic Commodity Prices Inflation in domestic food commodities (YoY and MoM in percent) for selected essential food items covering both urban and rural CPI baskets is given in table 9.1. Table 9.1 Inflation in Domestic Urban and Rural CPI Food Commodities (in percent) – May 2022 S. No Item Unit Urban CPI Rural CPI YoY YoY MoM MoM 1 Wheat 10 Kg 29.9 -1.2 27.7 -5.2 2 Wheat Flour Bag 20 Kg 28.9 14.7 27.9 6.4 3 Rice Basmati Broken (Superior/Average Quality) * 1 Kg 0.5 -0.2 13.9 0.3 4 Beef with Bone (Average Quality) 1 Kg 13.6 4.9 16.1 6.0 5 Mutton (Average Quality) 1 Kg 15.0 4.4 16.9 5.7 6 Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) 1 Kg 59.6 16.9 60.8 22.6 7 Milk Fresh (Un-Boiled) 1 Liter 16.1 0.4 9.2 0.3 8 Eggs Farm Dozen 55.0 -11.6 49.7 -11.7 9 Vegetable Ghee Dalda/Habib Or Other Superior Quality 1 Kg Pouch Each 23.6 0.2 26.4 3.4 10 Pulse Masoor (Washed) 1 Kg -7.1 -1.1 -4.8 -0.6 11 Pulse Moong (Washed) 1 Kg -17.2 -1.3 -18.8 -0.7 12 Pulse Mash (Washed) 1 Kg 4.2 -1.4 5.7 0.4 13 Pulse Gram 1 Kg -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -0.5 14 Potatoes 1 Kg -16.5 0.7 -12.9 10.3 15 Onions 1 Kg -31.5 -13.1 -34.4 -9.1 16 Tomatoes 1 Kg 4.9 -46.6 9.7 -46.4 17 Sugar Refined 1 Kg 21.6 2.6 21.7 4.1 18 Garlic (Lehsun) 1 Kg -28.1 0.2 -28.5 -4.3 19 Ginger (Adrak) 500 Gm 3.7 -5.3 2.8 -2.3 20 Tea Lipton Yellow Label 190 Gm Packet Each 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 *Superior Quality for Urban CPI Basket and Average Quality for Rural CPI Basket
  25. State Bank of Pakistan 10 . Inflation in Global Context In global context, Pakistan’s inflation in comparison with inflation in selected developed and emerging economies is given in figure 10.1. Fig 10.1: Inflation (YoY) in Global Context 16 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Pakistan Inflation in comparison with Inflation in Emerging Economies* China Thailand India Bangladesh Sri Lanka Pakistan (RHS) Argentina (RHS) Iran (RHS) Turkey (RHS) Nigeria (RHS) 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 0.0 May-21 Percent 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 -4 Jun-21 0 May-21 Percent Pakistan Inflation in comparison with Inflation in Developed Economies* US Euro Area Japan UK Pakistan (RHS) Sources: Bloomberg, Havor Analytics, Trading Economics, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics * USA, Japan, UK, India, Bangladesh, Argentina and Nigeria has not released Inflation data for the months of May, 2022 as per Trading Economics/Bloomberg/Haver analytics. Note for the readers: Inflation rates in countries such as Sri Lanka (39.1%), Argentina (58.0%), Iran (39.3%), Nigeria (16.8%) and Turkey (73.5%) are higher than that of inflation in Pakistan (13.8%). 19
  26.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 11. Global Commodity Prices Global commodity prices and various group indices have a relation with domestic inflation. In this context, changes in major global commodity prices and indices along with price trends are given in table 11.1 and figure 11.1. Table 11.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent) May-21 Item/ Group Apr-22 May-22 YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Food 49.4 6.5 32.6 1.0 24.6 0.1 Metals 77.0 7.5 28.7 -2.5 6.6 -11.0 Energy 119.9 6.8 89.6 -6.1 86.5 5.0 Agricultural 37.6 5.42 26.5 1.2 19.5 -0.4 Cotton 38.3 0.2 71.2 10.1 80.2 5.4   Figure 11.1: Global Commodity Prices Growth (YoY) in Commodity Prices - Nominal US Dollars Rice Wheat Sugar Palm OIl Soyabean Oil 150 130 110 Percent 90 70 50 30 10 -10 -30 Growth (YoY) in Commodity Price Indices - (2010=100) Energy Index Metal Index Food Index 200 150 100 Percent 50 0 -50 Source: World Bank May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 -100 May-21 20
  27. State Bank of Pakistan 12 . Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because these eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Indices (National CPI, Urban CPI and Rural CPI) from July 2008 to May 2022 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 12.1 reveals that seasonality in all CPI series has been increasing over the period. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to April and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimate on historical data and that the future data may not necessarily show the same seasonal pattern. 21
  28.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Fig. 12.1 (a): Seasonal Factor of National CPI Average Seasonal Factors of National CPI Seasonal Factors of National CPI 97 May-22 97 Feb-22 98 Nov-21 98 Aug-21 99 May-21 99 Feb-21 100 Nov-20 100 Aug-20 101 May-20 101 Feb-20 102 Nov-19 102 Aug-19 103 May-19 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.0 99.96 100.2 100.9 101.1 100.2 99.77 99.51 99.53 99.97 99.45 99.25 Fig. 12.1 (b): Seasonal Factor of Urban CPI Average Seasonal Factors of Urban CPI Seasonal Factors of Urban CPI 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 May-22 Feb-22 Nov-21 Aug-21 May-21 Feb-21 Nov-20 Aug-20 May-20 Feb-20 Nov-19 Aug-19 May-19 97 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.7 100.9 100.0 99.70 99.49 99.50 100.1 99.66 99.36 Fig. 12.1 (c): Seasonal Factor of Rural CPI Average Seasonal Factors of Rural CPI Seasonal Factors of Rural CPI 97 97 May-22 98 Feb-22 98 Nov-21 99 Aug-21 99 May-21 100 Feb-21 100 Nov-20 101 Aug-20 101 May-20 102 Feb-20 102 Nov-19 103 Aug-19 103 May-19 22 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 99.82 99.74 100.3 101.2 101.5 100.4 99.86 99.55 99.58 99.73 99.13 99.07
  29. State Bank of Pakistan Figures 12 .2 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 12.2 (a): Seasonal Plot of National CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of National CPI FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of National CPI FY22 FY18 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 12.2 (b): Seasonal Plot of Urban CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of Urban CPI FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of Urban CPI FY22 FY18 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 12.2 (c): Seasonal Plot of Rural CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of Rural CPI FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of Rural CPI FY22 FY18 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 23
  30.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Seasonally adjusted Index of National CPI for May 2022 stood at 166.13 against 165.23 in original series showing an increase of 0.90 because of seasonal adjustment. Seasonally adjusted Index of Urban CPI for May Fig. 12.3 (a): MoM Changes in National CPI 2022 stood at 163.66 against 163.13 in original MoM % Changes in National CPI Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series series showing an increase of 0.53 on account of 4 seasonal adjustment. 3 1 0 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Jan-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 -2 Jul-21 -1 Jun-21 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted National CPI series stood at 0.96% reflecting an decrease during May 2022 over previous month and an decrease of 0.44% in original series. 2 May-21 Seasonally adjusted Index of Rural CPI for May 2022 stood at 169.85 against 168.39 in original series showing an increase of 1.46 on account of seasonal adjustment. MoM Annualize % Changes in National CPI 30 20 10 May-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 -10 Sep-21 0 Aug-21 It is pertinent to note that in case of MoM inflation, seasonally adjusted rates provide important information. Seasonally Adjusted Series 40 Jul-21 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Rural CPI series stood at 1.23% reflecting an decrease during May 2022 over previous month and an decrease of 0.65% in origional series. Original Series Jun-21 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Urban CPI series stood at 0.77% reflecting an decrease during May 2022 over previous month and an decrease of 0.31 % in original series. 50 May-21 24
  31. State Bank of Pakistan Fig . 12.3 (b): MoM % Changes in Urban CPI MoM Annualize % Changes in Urban CPI May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Seasonally Adjusted Series Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 May-21 May-22 -10 Apr-22 -2 Mar-22 0 Feb-22 -1 Jan-22 10 Dec-21 0 Nov-21 20 Oct-21 1 Sep-21 30 Aug-21 2 Jul-21 40 Jun-21 3 May-21 Original Series 50 Jul-21 Seasonally Adjusted Series Nov-21 MoM % Changes in Urabn CPI Original Series 4 Fig. 12.3 (c): MoM % Changes in Rural CPI May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Seasonally Adjusted Series Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-22 -10 Apr-22 -2 Mar-22 0 Feb-22 -1 Jan-22 10 Dec-21 0 Nov-21 20 Oct-21 1 Sep-21 30 Aug-21 2 Jul-21 40 Jun-21 3 May-21 Original Series 50 May-21 4 MoM Annualize % Changes in Urban CPI Seasonally Adjusted Series Nov-21 MoM % Changes in Urabn CPI Original Series 25
  32. 26   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 List of Tables Table A0: Inflation – Summary CPI General Period National Urban Core Inflation Food Rural Urban Non-Food Rural Urban WPI SPI** Rural NFNE* Trimmed Urban Rural Urban Rural Year-on-Year May-21 10.9 10.8 10.9 15.3 12.8 8.3 9.2 19.4 16.9 6.8 7.6 10.0 10.3 Jun-21 9.7 9.6 9.7 11.0 9.8 8.8 9.7 20.9 15.4 6.7 7.3 9.4 9.8 Jul-21 8.4 8.7 8.0 9.4 7.3 8.2 8.7 17.3 12.6 6.9 6.9 9.0 8.4 Aug-21 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.2 9.1 7.2 7.7 17.1 12.7 6.3 6.2 7.8 7.8 Sep-21 9.0 9.1 8.8 10.8 9.1 8.1 8.5 19.6 13.8 6.4 6.2 8.7 8.2 Oct-21 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.4 7.2 9.7 10.0 21.2 14.0 6.7 6.7 8.7 8.2 Nov-21 11.5 12.0 10.9 11.9 8.6 12.0 13.0 27.0 17.4 7.6 8.2 9.8 9.5 Dec-21 12.3 12.7 11.6 11.7 9.0 13.4 14.0 26.2 19.3 8.3 8.9 10.8 10.3 Jan-22 13.00 13.0 12.9 13.3 11.8 12.8 13.9 24.0 19.5 8.2 9.0 10.6 10.9 Feb-22 12.2 11.5 13.3 14.3 14.6 9.9 12.2 23.6 18.1 7.8 9.4 9.8 11.3 Mar-22 12.7 11.9 13.9 14.5 15.5 10.4 12.5 23.8 15.8 8.9 10.3 10.5 11.7 Apr-22 13.4 12.2 15.1 15.6 17.7 10.2 12.8 28.1 16.5 9.1 10.9 10.5 12.8 May-22 13.8 12.4 15.9 15.5 19.0 10.4 13.1 29.6 16.1 9.7 11.5 10.7 14.1 Month-on-Month May-21 0.1 0.2 -0.03 1.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 Jun-21 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 Jul-21 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Aug-21 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 Sep-21 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 3.7 1.1 1.0 3.2 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 Oct-21 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 1.8 1.9 4.2 3.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 Nov-21 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.1 1.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 Dec-21 -0.02 0.3 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 2.0 1.9 -0.2 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Jan-22 0.4 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.6 -0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.1 Feb-22 1.2 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 0.2 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 Mar-22 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.3 -0.1 -0.2 3.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 Apr-22 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.7 2.8 0.3 0.5 3.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 May-22 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 -0.1 0.0 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.4 * Non-Food Non-Energy, ** SPI for all income groups combined
  33. State Bank of Pakistan Table A1 : National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) Groups Weights MoM change YoY change May-21 0.7 Apr-22 3.7 May-22 0.9 May-21 14.8 Apr-22 17.0 May-22 17.3 0.2 3.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 10.1 0.3 2.1 0.7 10.7 10.8 11.3 -1.2 -0.7 -2.3 8.4 7.1 5.8 0.5 0.3 1.6 0.9 1.8 0.5 9.6 9.0 14.7 10.4 16.1 10.6 5.9 2.2 0.1 0.4 2.7 14.0 28.3 31.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 Recreation & Culture 1.6 0.4 0.4 2.8 4.9 9.7 12.3 Education 3.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 8.4 9.5 Restaurants & Hotels 6.9 4.9 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.2 8.6 10.7 14.6 12.8 16.0 13.3 100.0 0.1 1.6 0.4 10.9 13.4 13.8 Food & Non-Alcoholic Alcoholic Beverages & T b Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc 34.6 1.0 8.6 Health 2.8 Transport Communication Miscellaneous Overall National CPI 23.6 4.1 Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) MoM change YoY change Weights Groups May-22 May-21 Apr-22 May-22 May-21 Apr-22 I. Food Group 36.8 1.1 3.7 1.0 15.3 15.6 15.5 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.4 1.1 4.3 0.9 16.3 16.0 15.8 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.9 0.2 3.3 4.6 6.1 4.8 9.4 Restaurant & Hotels (Food 5.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 11.2 15.0 15.1 C ) Group II. Non-Food 63.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 8.3 10.2 10.4 Clothing & Footwear 8.0 0.1 2.0 0.5 11.2 10.5 11.0 Housing, Water, Elec, Gas & other 27.0 Fuels -1.1 -0.6 -2.3 7.9 5.6 4.4 Furnishing & Household Equip. 4.1 Maintenance etc 0.5 1.6 2.0 8.8 13.5 15.2 Health 2.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 9.6 10.3 10.3 Transport 6.1 0.1 0.6 2.9 14.2 28.6 32.2 Communication 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 Recreation & Culture 1.7 0.2 0.2 3.0 3.4 8.9 11.9 Education 4.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 9.2 10.4 Restaurants & Hotels (Non-food 1.9 Component) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 13.0 13.0 Miscellaneous 4.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 10.8 12.0 12.2 Overall Urban CPI 100.0 0.2 1.6 0.3 10.8 12.2 12.4 27
  34. 28   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) Groups I. Food Group Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco Restaurants and Hotels (Food Component) II. Non-Food Group Clothing and Footwear Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels Furnishing and Household Equip. Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation and Culture Education Restaurants and Hotels (Non-Food Component) Miscellaneous Rural CPI MoM Change Weights YoY Change May-21 Apr-22 May-22 May-21 Apr-22 May-22 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.5 -1.4 2.8 3.1 2.8 0.4 0.5 2.3 -0.8 1.3 0.8 5.3 5.9 0.0 0.9 -2.5 12.8 13.2 3.8 11.6 9.2 10.0 9.7 17.7 18.2 5.5 15.4 12.8 11.3 10.3 19.0 19.0 11.0 21.2 13.1 11.7 9.1 3.5 5.6 2.0 1.4 2.1 2.4 5.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.6 2.5 0.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 1.3 10.8 8.4 13.5 0.8 7.5 2.9 0.6 10.6 16.4 10.4 27.9 0.8 11.0 5.1 13.3 13.9 17.5 10.9 31.0 0.8 13.0 6.0 13.3 14.9 100.0 -0.03 1.6 0.6 10.9 15.1 15.9 45.9 40.9 1.3 3.8 54.1 9.5 18.5 4.1
  35. State Bank of Pakistan 29 Table A4 : Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) – May 2022 Items/Contributors A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 Motor Fuel 2 House Rent 3 Milk Fresh 4 Readymade Food 5 Cooking Oil 6 Vegetable Ghee 7 Wheat Flour 8 Meat 9 Education 10 Liquefied Hydrocarbons Weights 2.91 19.26 7.11 5.52 1.10 1.03 3.01 2.04 4.88 0.51 Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 Tomatoes 2 Onions 3 Liquefied Hydrocarbons 4 Cooking Oil 5 Vegetable Ghee 6 Mustard Oil 7 Pulse Masoor 8 Motor Fuel 9 Gram Whole 10 Nimco 47.37 Total C. Ranked by Weights 1 House Rent 2 Milk Fresh 3 Readymade Food 4 Education 5 Electricity Charges 6 Wheat Flour 7 Appliances/Articles/Products For Personal 8 Motor Fuel 9 Cotton Cloth 10 Meat 6.87 0.35 0.59 0.51 1.10 1.03 0.01 0.16 2.91 0.09 0.12 19.26 7.11 5.52 4.88 4.56 3.01 2.98 2.91 2.22 2.04 YoY Change May-21 May-22 25.43 6.21 15.41 11.18 20.62 22.10 28.54 14.15 1.19 -1.97 44.35 5.58 12.62 15.05 60.05 58.70 19.17 24.79 10.39 103.09 Weighted Contribution (%) 10.82 8.28 7.03 6.65 6.44 6.17 4.81 4.73 4.15 3.66 62.74 4.96 -31.52 -1.97 20.62 22.10 30.75 -7.09 25.43 -0.16 13.80 162.22 153.44 103.09 60.05 58.70 56.76 50.33 44.35 39.56 27.46 2.06 3.51 3.66 6.44 6.17 0.06 0.48 10.82 0.26 0.27 33.73 6.21 15.41 11.18 1.19 21.83 28.54 11.84 25.43 12.07 14.15 5.58 12.62 15.05 10.39 -11.81 19.17 10.35 44.35 12.54 24.79 8.28 7.03 6.65 4.15 -3.95 4.81 2.46 10.82 2.33 4.73 Total 54.49 47.31 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in Urban CPI, which is 12.4 percent in May 2022.
  36. 30   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Apr-22 May-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Wheat Flour Chicken Onions Motor Fuel Meat Eggs Education Readymade Food Transport Services Milk Fresh Total 3.01 3.45 1.36 -9.40 0.59 42.83 2.91 0.10 2.04 3.25 0.51 0.37 4.88 0.55 5.52 0.25 1.75 -0.97 7.11 1.27 29.68 B. Ranked by Percentage Change 10.51 16.98 36.17 3.19 3.98 13.07 1.06 0.82 2.69 0.59 102.01 86.69 55.25 39.04 32.66 20.45 16.59 14.91 14.15 13.22 394.97 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Onions Chicken Eggs Wheat Flour Stationery Garbage Collection Gram Whole Pulse Masoor Wheat Products Plastic Products Total 0.59 42.83 1.36 -9.40 0.51 0.37 3.01 3.45 0.35 0.12 0.11 0.22 0.09 5.67 0.16 1.13 0.09 -3.28 0.05 0.50 6.32 C. Ranked by Weights 36.17 16.98 13.07 10.51 8.00 7.21 6.68 5.96 5.86 4.75 55.25 86.69 20.45 102.01 8.30 2.81 2.07 2.92 1.92 0.69 283.11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Rent Milk Fresh Readymade Food Education Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Appliances/Articles/Products For l Motor Fuel 19.26 1.12 0.00 0.00 7.11 1.27 0.59 13.22 5.52 0.25 0.82 14.91 4.88 0.55 1.06 16.59 4.56 -7.84 -15.46 -193.37 3.01 3.45 10.51 102.01 2.98 0.65 1.38 12.82 2.91 0.10 3.19 39.04 Cotton Cloth 2.22 2.05 0.10 0.76 Meat 2.04 3.25 3.98 32.66 Total 54.49 38.64 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in MoM change in Urban CPI, which is 0.3 percent in May 2022.
  37. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) May-21 May-22 2.91 19.26 7.11 5.52 1.10 1.03 3.01 2.04 4.88 0.51 0.59 1.75 1.53 2.98 2.22 56.44 25.43 6.21 15.41 11.18 20.62 22.10 28.54 14.15 1.19 -1.97 -31.52 4.29 12.53 11.84 12.07 44.35 5.58 12.62 15.05 60.05 58.70 19.17 24.79 10.39 103.09 153.44 22.45 24.42 10.35 12.54 10.82 8.28 7.03 6.65 6.44 6.17 4.81 4.73 4.15 3.66 3.51 2.76 2.61 2.46 2.33 76.41 4.56 1.33 1.11 0.45 0.17 1.08 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.04 8.99 21.83 26.71 21.62 -15.59 -17.22 0.00 8.77 10.35 8.53 15.05 1.87 4.63 0.00 0.00 6.26 -11.81 -17.50 -13.74 -21.60 -24.03 0.00 5.39 1.45 6.26 17.07 7.75 5.10 3.35 7.62 10.32 -3.95 -2.74 -1.36 -1.03 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 -9.27 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Motor Fuel House Rent Milk Fresh Readymade Food Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Wheat Flour Meat Education Liquefied Hydrocarbons Onions Transport Services Fresh Vegetables Appliances/Articles/Products For Cotton Cloth Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity Charges Condiments And Spices Sugar Potatoes Pulse Moong Gas Charges Therapeutic Appliances And Postal Services Dental Services Major Tools & Equipments Carpets Gur Newspapers Motor Vehicle Tax Dessert Preparation Total         31
  38. 32   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-22 May-22 3.01 1.36 0.59 2.91 2.04 0.51 4.88 5.52 1.75 7.11 2.98 1.18 1.41 0.72 0.81 36.78 3.45 -9.40 42.83 0.10 3.25 0.37 0.55 0.25 -0.97 1.27 0.65 0.39 1.36 4.39 5.42 10.51 16.98 36.17 3.19 3.98 13.07 1.06 0.82 2.69 0.59 1.38 3.40 2.19 4.68 3.30 102.01 86.69 55.25 39.04 32.66 20.45 16.59 14.91 14.15 13.22 12.82 12.72 10.36 9.89 9.57 450.33 4.56 1.53 1.44 0.35 1.33 1.11 0.45 0.04 0.04 0.39 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.43 1.88 13.72 -7.84 14.41 21.07 51.53 0.46 -0.70 1.43 -1.23 1.05 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 -15.46 -15.26 -12.94 -37.73 -1.58 -2.05 -0.40 -2.50 -0.93 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -193.37 -85.93 -77.47 -72.35 -7.44 -6.41 -0.54 -0.30 -0.14 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -443.96 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wheat Flour Chicken Onions Motor Fuel Meat Eggs Education Readymade Food Transport Services Milk Fresh Appliances/Articles/Products For Rice Washing Soap/Detergents/Match Cigarettes Motor Vehicles Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity Charges Fresh Vegetables Fresh Fruits Tomatoes Condiments And Spices Sugar Potatoes Gur Beans Fish Postal Services Motor Vehicle Tax Honey Woolen Readymade Garments Communication Services Total    
  39. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-22 May-22 3.01 1.36 0.59 2.04 0.51 5.52 7.11 1.18 0.72 0.61 0.89 0.35 0.16 0.14 0.09 24.29 3.45 -9.40 42.83 3.25 0.37 0.25 1.27 0.39 4.39 -0.25 0.41 0.32 1.13 0.00 5.67 10.51 16.98 36.17 3.98 13.07 0.82 0.59 3.40 4.68 2.06 1.68 2.24 5.96 4.26 6.68 102.01 86.69 55.25 32.66 20.45 14.91 13.22 12.72 9.89 4.44 4.20 2.96 2.92 2.71 2.07 367.13 1.53 1.44 0.35 1.33 1.11 0.45 0.04 0.04 0.39 0.10 0.09 0.33 0.10 0.01 0.08 7.40 14.41 21.07 51.53 0.46 -0.70 1.43 -1.23 1.05 -0.07 0.15 0.79 -0.57 0.27 2.31 1.03 -15.26 -12.94 -37.73 -1.58 -2.05 -0.40 -2.50 -0.93 -0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.11 1.93 1.14 -85.93 -77.47 -72.35 -7.44 -6.41 -0.54 -0.30 -0.14 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.27 -250.14 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Wheat flour Chicken Onions Meat Eggs Readymade food Milk fresh Rice Cigarettes Wheat Beverages Sweetmeat Pulse masoor Pan prepared Gram whole Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh vegetables Fresh fruits Tomatoes Condiments and Spices Sugar Potatoes Gur Beans Fish Honey Butter Dry fruits Ice cream Mustard oil Besan Total         33
  40. 34   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-22 May-22 2.91 4.88 1.75 2.98 1.41 0.81 0.35 1.00 1.32 1.07 0.77 0.94 0.48 0.51 0.67 21.84 0.10 0.55 -0.97 0.65 1.36 5.42 0.12 3.88 1.37 6.37 0.37 0.81 0.95 -3.75 0.38 3.19 1.06 2.69 1.38 2.19 3.30 8.00 2.05 1.27 1.35 1.79 0.87 2.46 1.32 1.64 39.04 16.59 14.15 12.82 10.36 9.57 8.30 6.66 4.99 4.83 4.06 3.70 3.64 3.37 2.95 145.04 4.56 1.88 0.05 1.08 0.02 0.43 19.26 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.13 0.01 0.57 0.05 0.42 28.51 -7.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.01 0.06 0.58 0.00 4.50 0.00 1.26 -1.00 -15.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.48 0.07 2.00 0.03 0.52 0.06 -193.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 -193.08 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Motor fuel Education Transport services Appliances/Articles/Products for Washing soap/detergents/match Motor vehicles stationery Household equipments Readymade garments Tailoring Household servant Personal Effects n.e.c. Furniture and furnishing Liquefied Hydrocarbons Text books Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity charges Communication Services Motor vehicle tax Gas charges Postal services Woolen readymade garments House rent Therapeutic Appliances and Carpets Dental services Accommodation Services Major tools & equipments Hospitals services Electrical Appliances for Personal Solid Fuel Total    
  41. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) May-21 May-22 2.38 10.38 2.49 3.80 3.47 3.43 4.48 1.00 0.90 2.09 34.42 25.35 9.23 26.97 11.58 27.66 26.02 9.10 4.34 -34.37 -1.18 59.87 14.09 43.73 21.20 22.25 20.15 15.95 77.74 151.37 39.29 12.32 8.45 7.01 5.40 4.95 4.46 4.37 4.10 3.79 3.76 58.61 0.90 0.51 1.00 0.01 0.60 2.38 0.21 0.11 2.49 2.09 10.30 -34.37 9.74 4.34 28.99 28.98 25.35 -4.76 1.73 26.97 -1.18 151.37 147.73 77.74 62.14 61.15 59.87 52.88 48.60 43.73 39.29 3.79 1.87 4.10 0.06 3.10 12.32 0.53 0.30 7.01 3.76 36.84 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vegetable Ghee Milk Fresh Motor Fuels Readymade Food Wheat Wheat Flour Solid Fuel Liquefied Hydrocarbons Onions Fresh Vegetables Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Onions Tomatoes Liquefied Hydrocarbons Mustard Oil Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Pulse Masoor Gram Whole Motor Fuels Fresh Vegetables Total C. Ranked by Weights 10.38 9.23 14.09 8.45 8.61 6.58 5.73 2.96 4.48 9.10 15.95 4.37 3.80 11.58 21.20 5.40 3.47 27.66 22.25 4.95 3.44 21.83 -11.81 -2.32 3.43 26.02 20.15 4.46 2.84 12.48 11.59 2.40 2.49 26.97 43.73 7.01 2.38 25.35 59.87 12.32 45.32 50.00 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in Rural CPI, which is 15.9 percent in May 2022. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10       Milk Fresh House Rent Solid Fuel Readymade Food Wheat Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Cotton Cloth Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee   35
  42. 36   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Apr-22 May-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Chicken Readymade Food Onions Milk Fresh Wheat Flour Motor Fuels Meat Vegetable Ghee Wheat Cigarettes Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Onions Chicken Eggs Gram Whole Potatoes Readymade Food Cigarettes Wheat Flour Mustard Oil Text Books Total C. Ranked by Weights -9.26 0.44 50.38 0.92 0.63 0.12 2.41 5.60 -2.44 2.93 17.73 5.90 28.60 2.05 5.28 3.15 3.13 1.33 1.56 5.42 46.54 36.73 29.88 29.31 28.49 15.03 10.08 9.20 8.94 8.72 222.92 0.90 1.46 0.57 0.11 0.74 3.80 1.24 3.43 0.01 0.50 12.76 50.38 -9.26 -4.51 5.48 -0.14 0.44 2.93 0.63 2.46 1.63 28.60 17.73 10.48 8.33 6.95 5.90 5.42 5.28 5.16 4.90 29.88 46.54 8.25 1.50 7.29 36.73 8.72 28.49 0.17 2.96 170.53 10.38 0.92 2.05 29.31 8.61 0.98 0.00 0.00 4.48 0.55 0.07 0.50 3.80 0.44 5.90 36.73 3.47 -2.44 1.56 8.94 3.44 -7.84 -15.46 -67.65 3.43 0.63 5.28 28.49 2.84 3.95 0.33 1.63 2.49 0.12 3.15 15.03 2.38 5.60 1.33 9.20 45.32 62.18 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in MoM change in Rural CPI, which is 0.6 percent in May 2022. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10   Milk Fresh House Rent Solid Fuel Readymade Food Wheat Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Cotton Cloth Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee 1.46 3.80 0.90 10.38 3.43 2.49 1.71 2.38 3.47 1.24 31.26  
  43. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) May-21 May-22 2.38 10.38 2.49 3.80 3.47 3.43 4.48 1.00 0.90 2.09 0.60 8.61 1.45 1.71 1.80 48.59 25.35 9.23 26.97 11.58 27.66 26.02 9.10 4.34 -34.37 -1.18 28.98 6.58 -5.11 16.33 2.98 59.87 14.09 43.73 21.20 22.25 20.15 15.95 77.74 151.37 39.29 61.15 5.73 27.71 22.87 26.58 12.32 8.45 7.01 5.40 4.95 4.46 4.37 4.10 3.79 3.76 3.10 2.96 2.93 2.89 2.63 73.12 3.44 2.03 1.49 0.74 0.25 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.65 0.02 0.15 0.06 10.04 21.83 21.67 3.98 -12.45 -18.79 0.00 0.03 2.40 0.00 8.75 11.49 0.69 7.84 6.94 36.99 -11.81 -13.13 -14.63 -21.31 -25.24 -5.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.99 7.04 0.09 8.41 0.93 1.63 -2.32 -1.84 -1.77 -1.42 -0.42 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -7.73 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Vegetable Ghee Milk Fresh Motor Fuels Readymade Food Wheat Wheat Flour Solid Fuel Liquefied Hydrocarbons Onions Fresh Vegetables Cooking Oil House Rent Fresh Fruits Meat Transport Services Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity Charges Sugar Condiments And Spices Potatoes Pulse Moong Motor Vehicle Tax Accommodation Services Newspapers Postal Services Garbage Collection Dessert Preparation Communication Services Dental Services Gur Water Supply Total         37
  44. 38   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-22 May-22 1.46 3.80 0.90 10.38 3.43 2.49 1.71 2.38 3.47 1.24 0.57 0.74 1.55 1.21 1.80 37.13 -9.26 0.44 50.38 0.92 0.63 0.12 2.41 5.60 -2.44 2.93 -4.51 -0.14 2.72 0.51 -0.11 17.73 5.90 28.60 2.05 5.28 3.15 3.13 1.33 1.56 5.42 10.48 6.95 2.33 2.36 1.98 46.54 36.73 29.88 29.31 28.49 15.03 10.08 9.20 8.94 8.72 8.25 7.29 6.90 5.66 5.19 256.21 2.09 0.51 3.44 1.45 2.03 1.49 0.26 0.25 0.09 8.61 2.25 1.65 1.01 0.51 0.54 26.18 6.27 62.18 -7.84 26.47 -1.48 -0.38 0.00 0.02 3.64 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.30 1.11 0.00 -20.05 -50.78 -15.46 -1.68 -1.63 -0.47 -0.22 -0.09 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -71.43 -69.17 -67.65 -4.93 -4.32 -1.05 -0.08 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -218.67 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Chicken Readymade Food Onions Milk Fresh Wheat Flour Motor Fuels Meat Vegetable Ghee Wheat Cigarettes Eggs Potatoes Rice Personal Effects N.E.C. Transport Services Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Electricity Charges Fresh Fruits Sugar Condiments And Spices Fish Dry Fruits Beans House Rent Marriage Hall Charges Communication Services Hospitals Services Doctor Clinic Fee Woolen Readymade Garments Total    
  45. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-22 May-22 1.46 3.80 0.90 10.38 3.43 1.71 2.38 3.47 1.24 0.57 0.74 1.55 0.96 0.60 0.33 33.53 -9.26 0.44 50.38 0.92 0.63 2.41 5.60 -2.44 2.93 -4.51 -0.14 2.72 1.42 2.54 0.22 17.73 5.90 28.60 2.05 5.28 3.13 1.33 1.56 5.42 10.48 6.95 2.33 2.63 1.67 3.09 46.54 36.73 29.88 29.31 28.49 10.08 9.20 8.94 8.72 8.25 7.29 6.90 3.43 2.87 1.62 238.26 2.09 0.51 1.45 2.03 1.49 0.26 0.25 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.11 0.15 0.07 0.11 0.06 8.71 6.27 62.18 26.47 -1.48 -0.38 0.00 0.02 3.64 0.31 1.41 0.15 -1.76 2.27 0.31 0.33 -20.05 -50.78 -1.68 -1.63 -0.47 -0.22 -0.09 -0.02 0.00 0.16 0.04 0.34 0.82 0.74 1.77 -71.43 -69.17 -4.93 -4.32 -1.05 -0.08 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.14 -150.60 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Chicken Readymade Food Onions Milk fresh Wheat Flour Meat Vegetable ghee Wheat Cigarettes Eggs Potatoes Rice Milk products Cooking oil Butter Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15     Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Fresh fruits Sugar Condiments and Spices Fish Dry fruits Beans Honey Dessert Preparation Milk powder Gur Besan Wheat Products Ice Cream Total 39
  46. 40   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in May 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-22 May-22 2.49 1.21 1.80 1.13 1.28 1.30 2.27 1.58 0.50 1.70 2.13 0.58 1.00 2.84 1.54 23.35 0.12 0.51 -0.11 1.20 2.42 3.60 1.09 1.36 1.63 1.16 0.96 1.39 -0.34 3.95 1.20 3.15 2.36 1.98 3.01 2.28 2.15 1.11 1.21 4.90 1.00 0.80 2.40 0.91 0.33 0.61 15.03 5.66 5.19 5.02 4.57 4.22 3.39 3.10 2.96 2.61 2.29 2.09 1.81 1.63 1.55 61.14 3.44 0.14 0.02 1.65 0.01 0.02 0.54 2.25 0.40 0.06 0.36 1.01 0.51 8.61 0.02 19.05 -7.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.73 0.63 0.30 1.11 0.98 0.00 -15.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 -67.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 -67.64 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Motor Fuels Personal Effects n.e.c. Transport Services Readymade Garments Household Equipments Tailoring Appliances/Articles/Products for Drugs and Medicines Text Books Washing Soaps, Detergents and Education Furniture and Furnishing Liquefied Hydrocarbons Cotton Cloth Personal Grooming Services Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15   Electricity Charges Accommodation Services Newspapers Communication Services Postal Services Motor Vehicle Tax Woolen Readymade Garments Marriage Hall Charges Medical Tests Water Supply Mechanical Services Hospitals Services Doctor Clinic Fee House Rent Dental Services Total  
  47. State Bank of Pakistan   Decrease or no change Chilies Powder National 200 Gm Packet, Ginger (Adrak), Bananas (Kela) Local, Pulse Moong (Washed), Potatoes, Sugar Refined, Cardamom Small (Average Quality), Cumin Seed (Zeera) White Miscellaneous Restaurant & Hotels Education Recreation & Culture Commu nication Transport Health Furnishing & Housing, Water, Household Equip. Elec, Gas & other Maintenance etc Fuels Clothing & Footwear Groups Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic & Beverages Tobacco Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: May 2022     Moderate increase than 0% but less than 5%) (5% but less than 10%) more) Turmeric Powder National 50 Gm Packet, Coriander Seed Powder National 200 Gm Packet, Chicken Farm Broiler (Live), Eggs Farm, Jam-E-Shireen Standard Size (800 Ml), Ice Cream Walls Gur (Average Quality), Milk Tetra Pack 1 Litre (Milk Pak/Haleeb/Olpers), Fish Rahu (Medium Size), Powdered Milk Nido 390 Gm Polybag, Pulse Mash Pan Prepared (Sweet With Beetle Nuts), Cigarettes Capstan 20'S Packet, Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20'S Packet, Full Pant Boy Length 24"/26", Pullover Gents Oxford/Bonanza, Dopatta Cotton (Average Quality), Shirt Boy Length 24"/26", Dopatta Geogette (Average Quality), Awami Suit Gents Wash & Wear (Average Quality), Shoe Repair Full Sole, Gents Sandal Bata, Women Shalwar Kameez (Average Quality), Lawn Water Charges Per House, Painter Wage Rate, House Rent Combined, Cement Blocks (6"X8"X12"), Sand (Black Pit), Synthetic Enamel Ici Balti 3.64 Litre, Custard Powder Rafhan 300 Gm Packet, Suji, Gram Whole Black (Average Quality), Rice Basmati 385/386, Tomato Ketchup Mitchells/National 1 Kg Polybag, Curd, Mineral Water Nestle 1.5 Liter, Rice Irri-6/9 Cheetah 50 Size 3-5 Servis, Ladies Linen, Ladies (Average Quality), Sponge Chappal Bata, Gents Shoes Servis, Children Shoes Power Lite Bata, Double digit increase (10% or Pant Cloth Wash & Wear (Average Quality), Tailoring Charges Pant (Men), Chaddar (Wash-N-Wear) (2X2.5 Meter), Tailoring Charges Awami Suit (Male), School Uniform Boys (Pant & Shirt) 24"/26", Vest "Baniyan" For Men Average Quality, School Uniform Girls (Kameez & Shalwar) 24"/26", Heavy Weight Suiting Lawrance Pur (Average Quality), Pullover Electricity Charges 51-100 Units, Bricks New 1St Class, Mason Wage Rate, Firewood Whole, Electricity Charges 101-300 Units, Plumber Wage Rate, Bajri, Charges For Electricity Charges 301-700 Units, Refuse/Waste Collection, Electrician Electricity Charges Combined, Charges, Unskilled Labor Wage Rate, Electricity Charges Upto 50 Units, Cement (Local) 50 Kg Bag, Iron Bars (M.S. Electricity Charges Above 700 Units, Bar) 1/2 " 40 Grade, Lpg 11.67 Kg Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Mmbtu Cylinder, Phenyl Tyfon/Finis 2.75 Litre Bottle, Cleanser Powder Vim 900 Gm Chair Plastic (Chairman) (Average Quality), Boot Polish Cherry/Kiwi 42 Ml, Finis Polybag, Bed Sheet Single (Superior Sofa Set Five Seater, Household Servant 400 Ml Bottle, Bed Sheet Double With Quality), Blanket Single (Sn), Plain Female Part Time, Match Box, Bucket Two Pillow Covers (Superior Quality), Carpet, Central Table Set With Glass (Balti) Plastic Medium Size, Dinner Set Towel Medium Size (3' X 2'), Dining Top, Sewing Machine (Sn) Without Plastic 72 Pieces Super Quality, Tea Set Table Wit Glass Top And Six Chairs Cover, Cot Iron (Charpai), Pakistani (China-Ware) Set Of 21 Pieces, (Average Quality), Readymade Quilt (3 Kg), Water Set Refrigerator Dawlance/Pel 10 Cubic Feet Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml Bottle, Sugar Test (Random/Fasting) Charges Of Ecg Charges, Glucometer, Daonil Inderal Tablets 10 Mg, Lederplex Syrup Both, Ventolin Tablets 2 Mg, Blood Test Tablets 5 Mg, Dettol Medium Bottle, Bottle, Johar Joshanda Instant (Sachet) (Cp) Charges, Gynecologist Fee Per Amoxil Capsule 250 Mg, Packet, Glaxose-D 400 Gm Packet, Doctor Visit, Dental Surgeon Fee Per Visit, Physiotherapist Fee Per Visit, Dental (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, X-Ray (Chest) Charges, Electronic Bp Checking Apparatus, Extraction Fee, Cost Of Surgery (C- Entox Tablets, Betnovate-N Ointment 10 Section), Flagyl Tablets 400 Mg, Gm Tube, Urine Test (Dr) Charges, Cac 1000 Tablets Sandoz Bottle, Ultrasound Abdominal, Panadol Tablets Car Suzuki 800 Cc Without Ac, Train Fare Business Class Per Person, Mini Bus Fare Minimum Within Train Fare Ac Sleeper Per Person, Bus Fare City, Motorcycle Service Charges, Minimum Within City, Train Fare Ac Car Tax 800 Cc To 1500 Cc, Lower Per Person, Auto Rickshaw Fare, Mini Bus Fare Maximum Within City, Car Toyota 1300 Cc Xli, Taxi Four Seater Fare, Tire Car Mehran Tubeless (General), Mobil Oil (Havoline 20W-50), Suzuki Fare Mobile Call Charges, Telephone Call Courier Charges Minimum Within Zone Mobile Set With Rear Camera And Charges, Outside City (Tcs), Internet Charges Without Touch Screen, (Dsl) 1 Mb (Unlimited), Newspaper Daily Jang, Akhbar-E-Jehan Cable Charges, Urdu Book Ba/B.Sc, Personal Computer With Led Mathematics Book Class Xi (Text Book Weekly, Mag The Weekly (Magazine), English Book Ba/B.Sc, Monitor (17") Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, Board), Urdu Book Class Ix And X (Text Led Sony/Samsung 32" Colored, Book Board), Mathematics Book Class V Laptop Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, (Text Book Board), English Book Class Xi Display (14'-15'), English Book Complete Set, English Book Class Ix And Class Vi, Mathematics Book Class X, Pen Ink Dollar 57 Ml Bottle, Newspaper Ix And X (Text Book Board), Daily Dawn, Exercise Book (With Lines) Government College Fee First Year, Tuition Fee Private University Private Engineering University Tuition Fee Private College Fee First Year, M.Sc./M.A, Government Medical For Be (1St Year), Private School Fee Government University Fee M.S.C / College/University Tuition Fee For English Medium Average Standard (Class M.A., Coaching Fee For Class Xi/Xii Mbbs (1St Year), V), Private School Fee English Medium Science Group, Coaching Fee For Class Average Standard (Class Vi), Private Government Hostel Accommodation Fee Pizza Chicken Medium Size Burger With Shami Kabab (Average For Intermediate College Per Student, (Average Quality), Quality), Cooked Chicken At Average Hotel, Marriage Hall Charges With Furniture, Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Marriage Hall Service Charges With Food (Average Meal), Seekh Kabab (Beef) Wall Clock Quartz (Average Quality), Tooth Brush (Shield), Hair Style Hair Cut Charges For Men, Disposable Purse Ladies Medium Size (Average Charges (At Average Beauty Parlor), Razor Gillette Blue Ii, Hair Removing Quality), Face Cream Ponds Medium Artificial Jewelry (Locket Set) Cream (Eu-Cream) 30Ml Tube, Talcum Size (Cold), Tissue Paper Perfumed Box (Average Quality), Shampoo Sun Powder Viceroy/Black Cat Large Size, 100 Napkins, Lipstick Swiss Silk/Pantene 90 Ml Bottle, Nail Silver Tezabi 24 Carett, Electric Hair Miss/Medora (Medium), Toilet Soap Lux Polish Swiss Miss/Medora Straightener (Philips), Perfume Medium 75 Gm, (Medium), Pampers (Medium Size), Size Broche/Medora, Shaving Cream     Subdued increase (Greater   41
  48.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: May 2022 Communic ation Transport Health Furnishing & Housing, Water, Household Elec, Gas & Equip. other Fuels Maintenance etc Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Groups Decrease or no change Chilies Powder Loose, Pulse Moong (Washed), Ginger (Adrak), Potatoes, Bananas (Kela) Local, Sugar Refined, Coriander Seed Powder Loose, Subdued increase (Greater Moderate increase (5% than 0% but less than 5%) but less than 10%) Eggs Farm, Gur (Average Quality), Chicken Farm Broiler (Live), Salt Powder Loose, Jam-E-Shireen Standard Size (800 Ml), Muskmelon (Kharbuza), Led Sony/Samsung 32" Colored, Recreation & Culture Newspaper Daily Jang, Education Restaurant & Hotels more) Almonds (Badam) Kaghazi With Shell (Average Quality), Fish Fresh, Mango Kalmi (Average Quality), Rice Basmati 385/386, Bread Plain (Medium Size), Lady Finger (Bhindi), Groundnuts (Moong Phali) With Shell, Tea Lipton Yellow Label 190 Gm Packet, Curd, Gram Whole Black Pan Prepared (Sweet With Beetle Nuts), Chewing Tobacco (Niswar), Tobacco Hukka Twisted, Cable Charges, Personal Computer Exercise Book (With Lines) 80 To 100 With Led Monitor (17") Pages, English Books Class Ix And X, Pets Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, English Feed, Ballpoint Pen Local, Lead Pencil Books Class Xi Complete Set, Goldfish, Urdu Books Class V (Text Book English Books Class Vi, Urdu Books Board), Class Ix And X (Text Book Board), Private School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class Vi), Vocational Training Basic Computer Short Course Fee (3 Months) , Private School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class I), Private School Fee English Medium Government Hostel Accommodation Fee For Intermediate College Per Student, Private Hostel Accommodation Fee For Intermediate College Per Student, Blade Treet Ordinary (10 No. Packet), Toilet Soap Lux 75 Gm,     Ice Cream Walls Cup (Large Size), Powdered Milk Nido 390 Gm Polybag, Custard Powder Rafhan 300 Gm Packet, Pulse Mash (Washed), Tinda, Cold Drink (Pepsi/Coca-Cola) 1.5 Liter Bottle, Fruit Juice Small Packet 250 Ml, Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20'S Packet, Cigarettes Capstan 20'S Packet, Double digit increase (10% or Foottware Gents Local (Average Foottware Ladies Local (Average Quality), Quality), Shirting (Average Quality), Lawn Printed (Average Quality), Georgette Foottware Children Local (Average (Average Quality), Chaddar (Wash-NQuality), Dopatta Geogette (Average Wear) (2X2.5 Meter), Tailoring Charges Quality), Tailoring Charges Simple Awami Suit (Male), Linen, Ladies (Average Suit (Female), Quality), Long Cloth, Pullover Gents (Average Quality), School Uniform Girls (Kameez & Shalwar) 24"/26", Full Pant Boy Length 24"/26", School Uniform Boys Electricity Charges 51-100 Units, Electrician Charges, Mason Wage Rate, House Rent Combined, Bricks New Electricity Charges 101-300 Units, Plumber Wage Rate, Carpenter Wage Rate, 1St Class, Charges For Water Charges Per House, Electricity Charges 301-1000 Units, Sand (Black Pit), Bajri, Firewood Whole, Refuse/Waste Collection, Painter Electricity Charges Combined, Unskilled Labor Wage Rate, Coal, Wage Rate, Electricity Charges Upto 50 Units, Kerosene Oil, Cement (Local) 50 Kg Bag, Electricity Charges Above 1000 Units, Lpg 11.67 Kg Cylinder, Boot Polish Cherry/Kiwi 42 Ml, Cleanser Finis 400 Ml Bottle, Water Set Refrigerator Dawlance/Pel 10 Cubic Feet Powder Vim 900 Gm Polybag, (Omroc) 6 Glass, Double Door, Robin Blue Liquid 75 Ml Bottle, Towel Medium Size (2' X 3'), Bucket (Balti) Plastic Medium Size, Blanket Single (Sn), Water Cooler 9/10 Litre Plastic Super Quality, Tea Set Pakistani (ChinaHydryllin Syrup 120 Ml Bottle, Blood Daonil Tablets 5 Mg, X-Ray (Chest) Amoxil Capsule 250 Mg, Physiotherapist Test (Cp) Charges, Cost Of Surgery (C- Charges, Dental Surgeon Fee Per Fee Per Visit, Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Section), Visit, Dettol Medium Bottle, Cac Johar Joshanda Instant (Sachet) Packet, 1000 Tablets Sandoz Bottle, Inderal Panadol Tablets Plain, Tablets 10 Mg, Car Tax 800 Cc To 1500 Cc, Car Suzuki Motorcycle Service Charges, Tire Cycle, Chingchi Rickshaw Charges, 800 Cc Without Ac, Minimum, Tire Motorcycle Cd 70 (Back Wheel), Train Fare Economy Per Person, Motorcycle Honda Cd 70, Mobil Oil (Havoline 20W-50), Bicycle, Tire Car Mehran Tubeless (General), Hi-Speed Postal Registration Charges, Mobile Call Internet Charges (Dsl) 1 Mb (Unlimited), Charges, Telephone Call Charges, Mobile Set With Rear Camera And Without Touch Screen, Miscellaneous 42   Marriage Hall Service Charges With Food (Average Meal), Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Chicken Roast (Full) (Average Quality), Marriage Hall Charges With Furniture, Seekh Kabab (Beef) (Average Quality), Pizza Chicken Medium Size Purse Ladies Medium Size (Average Tooth Paste Colgate 75 Gm, Shampoo Sun Quality), Shaving Cream (Touchme Silk/Pantene 90 Ml Bottle, Talcum Powder Large/Admiral), Disposable Razor Viceroy/Black Cat, Artificial Jewelry Gillette Blue Ii, Suitcase Ragzine (Locket Set) (Average Quality), Hair Color (24"X16"X6") (Average Quality), (Kala Kola), Tooth Brush (Shield), Trunk Medium Size (Average Quality), Hair Removing Cream (Eu-Cream) 30Ml Tube,
  49. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: May 2022 Metal Product, Machinery & Equipments Other Transportable Goods except Metal Products, Machinery and Equipments Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Apparel and Leather Product Ores/Minerals, Elec., Agriculture Forestry & Gas & Water Fisher Product Groups Decrease or no change Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Edible Roots / Potatoes, Stimulant & Spice Crops, Fresh Fruits, Eggs, Poultry, Fish Live Fresh or Chilled, Raw Animal Materials / Wool, Millet / Bajra, Fuel Wood in Logs, Dry Fruits,     Cotton Seeds, Hides, Skins & Fur Skins, Raw, Maize, Natural Gas Liquified, Spices, Sugar Refined, Other Food Products, Nylon Yarn, Footwears, Blankets, Sugar Confectionary, Chocolate, Readymade Garments, Fruit Juices, Dried Fruits & Nuts, Ice Cream, Woolen Carpets, Milk & Cream in Solid Form, Other Leather N.E.C, Synthetic Carpets, Bed Sheets, Processed Liquid Milk, Beverages, Towels, Cotton Fabrics, Hosiery Products, Pesticides, Glass sheets, Other Glass Articles, Plastic Products, Timber, Bricks, Blocks & Tiles, Vacuum Pumps, Electric Wires, Steel Products, Engines & Motors,   Double digit increase (10% or more) Unmanufactured Tobacco, Raw Milk from Bovine Animals, Rice, Sorghum / Jowar, Sugar Crops, Wheat, Pulses, Other Oil Seeds, Vegetables, Fiber Crops, Electrical Energy, Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride, Coal not Agglomerated, Printing Paper, Hard Board, Dyeing Material, Insecticides,     Moderate increase (5% but less than 10%) Dairy Products N.E.C, Woven Fabrics, Mineral Water, Quilts, Blended Yarn, Other Fabrics, Oil Cakes, Other Cereal Flour, Tobacco Products, Leather Without Hair, Coffee & Tea, Vegetables & Fruit Juice, Silk & Reyon Fabrics, Ceramics & Sanitary Fixture, Paints & Varnishes, Medicines, Matches, Mobil Oil, Soaps & Detergents, Auto Tyres, Cement, Motor Spirit, Bed Foam, Diesel Oil, Fertilizers, Kerosene Oil, Fridge,WashM,SewM,Fans,Iron, Radio & Television, Bicycles, Lighting Equipments, Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles, Tractors, Lathe Machines, Pipe Fittings, Steel Bar & Sheets, Air Conditioners, Cultivators, Concrete Mixture, 43
  50. 44   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices Jun-21 Commodity/Indices May-21 Apr-22 May-22 Energy 71.8 66.4 103.4 110.1 Crude Oil (US$ per barrel)* 93.9 86.3 153.2 160.9 Energy Index (2010 = 100) Food 466.0 493.0 431.0 464.0 Rice ($/MT) 263.5 271.0 672.5 650.7 Wheat ($/MT)## 17.4 17.3 19.7 19.4 Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ 1,004.4 1,136.5 1,682.7 1,716.9 Palm Oil ($/MT) 1,518.2 1,574.7 1,947.5 1,962.9 Soybean Oil ($/MT) Non-Food Non-Energy 94.5 90.9 155.3 163.7 Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ 119.0 121.9 146.1 130.0 Metal Price Index (2010 = 100) 9,631.5 10,162.0 10,161.4 9,377.2 Copper ($/MT) 2,446.7 2,433.5 3,244.4 2,830.3 Aluminum ($/MT) 214.4 207.7 151.3 131.2 Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) 32,502.6 32,246.2 42,991.1 35,769.4 Tin ($/MT) 17,979.6 17,577.1 33,132.7 28,062.6 Nickel ($/MT) 2,951.9 2,965.7 4,360.4 3,751.5 Zinc ($/MT) 2,191.0 2,181.8 2,380.4 2,142.5 Lead ($/MT) 32.3 31.4 53.0 47.8 Uranium ($/MT)@ 604.8 574.6 954.0 842.5 DAP ($/MT) 393.3 331.6 925.0 707.5 Urea ($/MT) Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium Producer) @ Data has been taken from Cameco website, as it is not available in World Bank dataset. ^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / kilogram = $/MT = US$ per metric tonne. * Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh # Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, Liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From May 1968 to June 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 1-1/16.2/ ## Wheat, US HRW (Hard Red Winter) is not being reported by World Bank. Hence, it has been replaced with Wheat, US SRW (Soft Red Winter). DAP: Diammonium Phosphate      
  51. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period Aug FY18 107.15 107.31 FY19 114.29 113.93 FY20 123.86 125.89 FY21 135.38 136.23 FY22 146.76 147.61 Sep 108.05 113.90 126.86 138.32 150.74 Oct 109.22 116.32 129.16 140.67 153.61 Nov 109.95 116.18 130.90 141.83 158.18 Dec 109.92 115.82 130.45 140.86 158.16 Jan 110.01 116.12 133.04 140.56 158.78 Feb 109.72 117.12 131.64 143.09 160.61 Mar 109.96 119.46 131.69 143.61 161.88 Apr 111.15 120.33 130.59 145.09 164.50 May 111.65 121.05 131.01 145.24 165.23 Jun 112.58 121.63 132.08 144.82 Seasonally Adjusted Series 114.18 123.82 113.90 125.96 135.41 136.40 146.85 147.87 Jul Aug 106.99 107.19 Sep 107.67 113.56 126.53 138.01 150.44 Oct 108.23 115.25 127.97 139.35 152.15 Nov 108.80 114.89 129.35 140.07 156.16 Dec 109.82 115.64 130.17 140.49 157.68 Jan 110.24 116.39 133.35 140.90 159.17 Feb 110.40 117.76 132.27 143.69 161.21 Mar 110.56 120.07 132.30 144.23 162.54 Apr 111.17 120.36 130.63 145.14 164.55 May 112.27 121.72 131.73 146.04 166.13 Jun 113.35 122.52 133.12 146.05 Jul           45
  52. 46     Inflation Monitor, May 2022   Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period Jul Aug FY18 107.71 107.93 FY19 114.94 114.58 FY20 124.95 126.77 FY21 134.73 135.82 FY22 146.41 147.12 Sep 108.38 114.49 127.72 137.53 150.08 Oct 109.34 117.04 129.75 139.27 152.59 Nov 110.03 116.94 131.05 140.16 156.96 Dec 110.08 116.57 130.57 139.67 157.46 Jan 110.28 117.07 132.77 139.45 157.56 Feb 110.12 118.08 131.32 142.61 159.03 Mar 110.43 120.29 131.49 142.99 160.07 Apr 111.94 121.29 130.60 144.91 162.63 May 112.53 122.11 130.99 145.19 163.13 Jun 113.34 122.52 131.89 144.54 Jul Aug 107.39 107.68 Seasonally Adjusted Series 114.67 124.73 114.39 126.66 134.56 135.78 146.29 147.15 Sep 108.04 114.18 127.42 137.25 149.81 Oct 108.53 116.18 128.79 138.24 151.45 Nov 109.13 115.92 129.84 138.81 155.40 Dec 110.19 116.59 130.52 139.54 157.25 Jan 110.57 117.41 133.18 139.89 158.06 Feb 110.83 118.75 131.97 143.24 159.66 Mar 111.09 120.95 132.15 143.65 160.76 Apr 111.79 121.13 130.44 144.72 162.41 May 112.91 122.53 131.43 145.67 163.66 Jun 113.98 123.27 132.77 145.61
  53. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period     Jul Aug FY18 106.30 106.37 FY19 113.30 112.96 FY20 122.22 124.56 FY21 136.36 136.84 FY22 147.28 148.34 Sep 107.54 113.01 125.55 139.51 151.74 Oct 109.05 115.23 128.28 142.79 155.15 Nov 109.83 115.03 130.67 144.34 160.03 Dec 109.68 114.70 130.28 142.65 159.21 Jan 109.60 114.68 133.44 142.23 160.62 Feb 109.11 115.68 132.13 143.82 162.99 Mar 109.25 118.21 132.00 144.55 164.62 Apr 109.95 118.89 130.58 145.37 167.31 May 110.33 119.45 131.03 145.32 168.39 Jun 111.44 120.29 132.36 145.24 Jul Aug 106.37 106.45 Seasonally Adjusted Series 113.45 122.45 113.16 124.91 136.68 137.33 147.69 148.97 Sep 107.12 112.63 125.19 139.16 151.39 Oct 107.77 113.86 126.72 141.03 153.21 Nov 108.30 113.33 128.62 141.98 157.31 Dec 109.28 114.20 129.65 141.91 158.34 Jan 109.74 114.84 133.61 142.44 160.86 Feb 109.76 116.27 132.72 144.38 163.54 Mar 109.77 118.74 132.54 145.11 165.23 Apr 110.23 119.19 130.93 145.78 167.79 May 111.29 120.50 132.18 146.59 169.85 Jun 112.40 121.39 133.63 146.72 47
  54. 48   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 100.15 100.09 100.03 99.98 Jul 100.11 100.03 99.95 99.88 Aug 100.35 100.30 100.26 100.22 Sep 100.92 100.92 100.93 100.95 Oct 101.06 101.12 101.19 101.25 Nov 100.09 100.16 100.21 100.27 Dec 99.79 99.77 99.77 99.76 Jan 99.38 99.45 99.53 99.58 Feb 99.45 99.49 99.54 99.57 Mar 99.98 99.98 99.97 99.97 Apr 99.45 99.45 99.45 99.45 May 99.33 99.28 99.22 99.16 Jun FY22 99.94 99.82 100.20 100.96 101.29 100.30 99.75 99.63 99.59 99.97 99.46 Average 100.04 99.96 100.27 100.94 101.18 100.20 99.77 99.51 99.53 99.97 99.45 99.25 Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 100.30 100.23 100.18 100.12 Jul 100.23 100.17 100.09 100.03 Aug 100.32 100.27 100.23 100.20 Sep 100.75 100.74 100.74 100.75 Oct 100.82 100.88 100.93 100.97 Nov 99.90 99.98 100.04 100.09 Dec 99.74 99.71 99.70 99.69 Jan 99.36 99.44 99.51 99.56 Feb 99.41 99.45 99.50 99.54 Mar 100.13 100.14 100.13 100.13 Apr 99.66 99.66 99.66 99.67 May 99.44 99.39 99.34 99.27 Jun FY22 100.08 99.98 100.18 100.75 101.00 100.13 99.69 99.60 99.57 100.14 99.68 Average 100.18 100.10 100.24 100.75 100.92 100.03 99.70 99.49 99.50 100.13 99.66 99.36
  55. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period Aug FY18 99.93 99.92 FY19 99.87 99.82 FY20 99.81 99.72 FY21 99.76 99.64 FY22 99.72 99.58 Average 99.82 99.74 Sep 100.39 100.34 100.29 100.25 100.23 100.30 Oct 101.19 101.21 101.23 101.25 101.26 101.23 Nov 101.41 101.50 101.59 101.66 101.73 101.58 Dec 100.37 100.44 100.49 100.52 100.55 100.47 Jan 99.87 99.86 99.85 99.85 99.85 99.86 Feb 99.41 99.49 99.56 99.61 99.67 99.55 Mar 99.52 99.56 99.59 99.62 99.63 99.58 Apr 99.75 99.75 99.73 99.72 99.72 99.73 May 99.14 99.13 99.13 99.13 99.14 99.13 Jun 99.15 99.10 99.05 98.99 Jul     99.07 49
  56. 50   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Period Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FY18 0.57 0.15 0.69 1.09 0.66 -0.03 0.08 -0.26 0.22 1.08 0.46 0.83 Original Series FY19 FY20 1.51 1.83 -0.31 1.64 -0.03 0.77 2.12 1.81 -0.12 1.35 -0.31 -0.34 0.26 1.99 0.86 -1.05 2.00 0.04 0.73 -0.84 0.60 0.32 0.48 0.82 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -0.21 0.19 0.45 0.51 0.53 0.94 0.38 0.14 0.15 0.55 0.99 0.96 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.74 1.06 -0.25 1.73 -0.30 0.46 1.49 1.13 -0.32 1.08 0.65 0.63 0.65 2.44 1.18 -0.81 1.96 0.03 0.24 -1.26 1.13 0.84 0.66 1.05 FY21 2.50 0.63 1.53 1.70 0.82 -0.68 -0.21 1.80 0.36 1.03 0.10 -0.29 FY22 1.34 0.58 2.12 1.90 2.98 -0.02 0.39 1.15 0.79 1.62 0.44 1.72 0.73 1.18 0.97 0.52 0.29 0.30 1.98 0.37 0.63 0.62 0.01 0.54 0.70 1.73 1.14 2.63 0.98 0.94 1.28 0.83 1.24 0.96
  57. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 0.59 1.41 1.98 2.15 1.29 Jul 0.20 -0.31 1.46 0.81 0.48 Aug 0.42 -0.08 0.75 1.26 2.01 Sep 0.89 2.23 1.59 1.27 1.67 Oct 0.63 -0.09 1.00 0.64 2.86 Nov 0.05 -0.32 -0.37 -0.35 0.32 Dec 0.18 0.43 1.68 -0.16 0.06 Jan -0.15 0.86 -1.09 2.27 0.93 Feb 0.28 1.87 0.13 0.27 0.65 Mar 1.37 0.83 -0.68 1.34 1.60 Apr 0.53 0.68 0.30 0.19 0.31 May 0.72 0.34 0.69 -0.45 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun     -0.22 0.27 0.33 0.46 0.55 0.97 0.35 0.23 0.24 0.64 1.00 0.94 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.61 1.19 -0.25 1.54 -0.18 0.61 1.75 1.07 -0.22 0.81 0.58 0.52 0.70 2.03 1.14 -0.91 1.86 0.14 0.14 -1.30 1.16 0.77 0.60 1.02 1.35 0.90 1.08 0.72 0.42 0.53 0.25 2.40 0.28 0.75 0.66 -0.04 0.47 0.59 1.81 1.10 2.61 1.19 0.51 1.02 0.68 1.03 0.77 51
  58. 52   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 0.54 1.67 1.60 3.02 1.40 Jul 0.07 -0.30 1.91 0.35 0.72 Aug 1.10 0.04 0.79 1.95 2.29 Sep 1.40 1.96 2.17 2.35 2.25 Oct 0.72 -0.17 1.86 1.09 3.15 Nov -0.14 -0.29 -0.30 -1.17 -0.51 Dec -0.07 -0.02 2.43 -0.29 0.89 Jan -0.45 0.87 -0.98 1.12 1.48 Feb 0.13 2.19 -0.10 0.51 1.00 Mar 0.64 0.58 -1.08 0.57 1.63 Apr 0.35 0.47 0.34 -0.03 0.65 May 1.01 0.70 1.02 -0.06 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -0.20 0.07 0.63 0.60 0.50 0.90 0.43 0.01 0.02 0.42 0.96 1.00 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.94 0.88 -0.25 2.00 -0.47 0.23 1.09 1.22 -0.47 1.50 0.77 0.80 0.57 3.06 1.25 -0.67 2.12 -0.14 0.38 -1.21 1.10 0.96 0.74 1.10 2.28 0.47 1.33 1.35 0.67 -0.05 0.37 1.36 0.51 0.46 0.56 0.09 0.66 0.87 1.63 1.20 2.68 0.65 1.59 1.66 1.04 1.55 1.23
  59. 53 State Bank of Pakistan   List of Figures Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Communication Transport 35 30 10 15 25 5 20 15 5 10 5 10 0 5 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 Education Re cre ation & Culture 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 May-22 Jan-22 Mar-22 Nov-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jan-21 Sep-20 Jul-20 -15 May-20 Mar-22 -10 May-22 Jan-22 Nov-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 May-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 May-20 -15 Nov-20 -10 -10      
  60.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Communication Transport 35 30 10 15 25 5 20 15 5 10 5 10 0 5 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 Education Re cre ation & Culture 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 May-22 Jan-22 Mar-22 Nov-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jan-21 Sep-20 Jul-20 -15 May-20 Mar-22 -10 May-22 Jan-22 Nov-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 May-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Jul-20 -15 Sep-20 -10 Nov-20 -10 May-20 54  
  61. 55 State Bank of Pakistan   Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Communication Transport 35 30 10 15 25 5 20 15 5 10 5 10 0 5 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 Education Re cre ation & Culture 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 May-22 Jan-22 Mar-22 Nov-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jan-21 Sep-20 Jul-20 -15 May-20 Mar-22 -10 May-22 Jan-22 Nov-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 May-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Jul-20 May-20 -15 Sep-20 -10 Nov-20 -10      
  62.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 100 80 50 50 60 60 40 40 30 20 40 30 20 20 10 20 10 0 0 12-month ma food price changes 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 100 100 80 12-month ma non-food price changes 70 70 80 60 50 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 40 30 20 20 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (356), Food Items (103) and non-Food Ite ms (253).   80 60 40 80 100 70 80 60 12-month ma price changes   0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 70 80 YoY price changes <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 56 Price intervals in percent
  63. 57 State Bank of Pakistan   Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 100 250 MoM price changes 80 200 350 12-month ma price changes (MoM 300 100 80 250 150 60 100 40 50 20 200 60 150 40 100 20 50 0 0 12-month ma food price changes (MoM) 100 12-month ma non-food price changes (MoM) 300 80 250 300 80 250 60 200 150 40 60 200 150 40 100 100 20 50 20 50 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (356), Food Items (103) and non-Food Ite ms (253).     100 350 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 350 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent  
  64.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 100 80 50 60 40 100 80 60 50 60 40 40 30 20 20 10 40 30 20 20 10 0 12-month ma food price changes 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 80 12-month ma price changes 70 80 60 80 100 100 80 12-month ma non-food price changes 70 70 80 60 50 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 40 30 20 20 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (244), Food Items (94) and non-Food Items (150). 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 70 YoY price changes <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 58 Price intervals in percent  
  65. 59 State Bank of Pakistan   Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 160 140 100 250 80 200 80 60 150 60 40 100 40 20 50 20 0 0 0 MoM price changes 120 100 12-month ma price changes (MoM) 100 80 60 40 20 12-month ma food price changes (MoM) 100 12-month ma non-food price changes (MoM) 300 80 250 300 80 250 60 200 150 40 60 200 150 40 100 100 20 50 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (244), Food Items (94) and non-Food Items (150).     100 350 20 50 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 350 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent  
  66.   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 30 100 30 80 25 YoY price changes 25 20 60 15 12-month ma price changes 80 20 60 40 10 40 10 20 5 0 100 12-month ma food price changes 20 5 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 30 30 100 12-month ma non-food price changes 25 80 20 25 80 20 60 60 15 15 40 40 10 5 0 20 5 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in WPI Basket (110), Food Items (40) and non-Food Items (70).   20 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 10   100 15 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 60 Price intervals in percent  
  67. State Bank of Pakistan   Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies Technical Notes 1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI (National, Urban and Rural), WPI and SPI are computed by the following Laspeyres Index formula: Pj  I t   w0j  t j  j  P0  Where It is price index, w 0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket, Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year. 2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2015-16. 3. CPI baskets for urban and rural areas contains 356 and 244 consumers’ items respectively; WPI basket contains 419 items; SPI contains 51 items. 4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows: t  ( It  1) 100 It 12 5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows: t        t   i0 t  12   i0 I ti I t  12  i    1   100    Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a given time series. 6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows: t  ( It  1)  100 I t 1 7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as follows:   11    I t i i 0  ~  t  11  1  100      I t 12 i   i 0 8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the following two methods i.e. NFNE inflation and trimmed inflation:     61
  68. 62   Inflation Monitor, May 2022 a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following steps: i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average changes in their price indices in a given month. ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and 10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less). iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the rest of the items is core inflation. 9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is worked out as below: Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indices of individual items or subgroups (Iit), i.e. It  w i  I it i The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall inflation is defined as below:   C it   it 12  w i   it   t  Where C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation  it 12  I it 12 ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the I t 12 reference month wi : Weights of ith item  it : Inflation of ith item t : Overall inflation 10. Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate