Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-2021

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3. Economic Adviser ’s WingFinance Division Government of PakistanIslamabad www.finance.gov.pk
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5. CONTENTS Foreword Preface Pakistan Economic Survey Team Overview of the Economy ................................................................................................ i-xxi Chapter 1: Growth and Investment ...................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Agriculture ....................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 3: Manufacturing and Mining .............................................................................. 45 Chapter 4: Chapter 5: Fiscal Development .......................................................................................... 71 Money and Credit ............................................................................................. 97 Chapter 6: Capital Markets & Corporate Sector ............................................................... 125 Chapter 7: Inflation ........................................................................................................... 141 Chapter 8: Chapter 9: Trade and Payments ........................................................................................ 153 Public Debt...................................................................................................... 179 Chapter 10: Education ........................................................................................................ 199 Chapter 11: Health and Nutrition........................................................................................ 217 Chapter 12: Population, Labour Force and Employment .................................................. 237 Chapter 13: Transport and Communications ...................................................................... 255 Chapter 14: Energy ............................................................................................................. 285 Chapter 15: Social Protection ............................................................................................. 297 Chapter 16: Climate Change ............................................................................................... 321 Annexure Annex-I: Contingent Liabilities ...................................................................................... 337 Annex-II: Tax Expenditure .............................................................................................. 339 Annex-III: Special Economic Zones ................................................................................. 341 Annex-IV: Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan ..................... 349 Statistical Appendix Economic and Social Indicators............................................................................................ 1-8 Statistical Series ............................................................................................................. 11-180 Weights and Measures ........................................................................................................ 181 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... 182 Feed Back Form .................................................................................................................. 188
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7. FOREWORD Pakistan ’s economy has experienced unprecedented challenges during the past two years on account of stabilization measures and the COVID-19 outbreak that kept the economy below its potential level. The COVID-19 pandemic that engulfed the whole world is onein-a- century event which has exposed the inadequacy of healthcare systems around the world. The loss of millions of jobs, closure of businesses, and tipping millions into extreme poverty were obvious outcomes all over the globe. Pakistan has implemented a comprehensive set of measures like the economic stimulus package of Rs 1,240 billion, a construction package, an expansion of the social safety net to protect the vulnerable segments of the population, as well as monetary policy support and targeted financial initiatives. These measures supported the economy in mitigating the severe impact of the pandemic. Unlike other economies across the world, Pakistan's economy began to revive at a faster pace in the early half of FY2021, owing to significant rise in domestic economic activity. The prudent decisions of the government with accommodative fiscal and monetary policies helped the economy to regain its pre-COVID-19 trajectory. As a result today, Alhamdulillah, the economy is steadily progressing towards more sustainable and inclusive growth. The economy has witnessed a V-shaped recovery with 3.94 percent growth in FY2021 against the negative growth of 0.47 percent last year. It is worth mentioning that after 15 years, the economic growth has surpassed its target. The outgoing fiscal year has witnessed a broad-based recovery across all sectors supported by various sector-specific measures implemented by the government. The measures to uplift the agriculture sector paid off in terms of improved productivity of important crops. Similarly, the performance in large scale manufacturing, construction, and export sectors is encouraging. The current account is in surplus, the fiscal deficit is manageable, the primary balance is also in surplus, the rupee is stable, and foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $22 billion. The Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 is the most important document providing authentic statistics and information on the performance of the economy during the year. The Survey provides a perspective on the challenges the economy faces and the policy direction that will have to be maintained to successfully meet these challenges. I am sure the Economic Survey will serve as a compendium of useful information for policymakers, researchers, the Government departments, students, and academia. I owe special gratitude and appreciation to the Finance Secretary, the Economic Adviser, and their team for the diligent efforts rendered in the preparation of the Economic Survey. Shaukat Fayaz Ahmed Tarin Minister for Finance and Revenue. Islamabad, the 10th June 2021
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9. PREFACE Pakistan Economic Survey , a flagship report of the Ministry of Finance, is a yearly publication of the government which highlights the trend of macro-economic indicators, development policies, strategies, as well as sectoral achievements of the economy. Economic Survey FY2020-21 is being launched at a time when the economy is moving towards the robust economic recovery despite COVID-19 pandemic. The survey has reviewed the drivers of this year’s growth and highlighted the proactive measures taken by the government that have saved lives as well as livelihoods in the wake of the pandemic. The survey includes updated information and socio-economic progress of first nine to ten months of FY2020-21. The document consists of analytical text and Statistical Appendix. The first part furnishes a comprehensive analysis of the performance by various sectors of the economy, while the second part provides the time series data pertaining to its different sectors. The statistical data of all the sectors has been provided by numerous organizations, provincial departments and ministries of the Government of Pakistan. I would like to appreciate them for providing valuable and authentic information. The completion of survey could not have been possible without their timely support. I am indebted to EA Wing officers and officials, HRM Wing and Debt Office for their worthful support and hard work that made it possible to compile the document within the time frame. I would also offer my gratitude to worthy Minister for Finance and Revenue and Finance Secretary for their guidance during compilation process. Economic Survey 2020-21 has greatly benefitted from the inputs and insights of Dr. Waqar Masood Khan (SAPM on Finance and Revenue), Dr. Sania Nishtar (SAPM on Poverty Alleviation and Social Protection), Dr. Aamer Irshad (FAO), Dr. Imran Khan (CUI, Abbottabad Campus), Dr Khalid Mehmood (PIDE), Mr. Javid Sikandar (M/o PD&SI), Dr. Atif Jaffari (University of Gujrat) and Dr. Tasneem Alam. I sincerely acknowledge their views that have improved the report. Continuous engagement, discussions and advice from the senior officers of the Finance Division especially Mr. Awais Manzur Sumra, Dr. Ahmad Mujtaba Memon, Mr. Tanvir Butt, Mr. Imadullah Bosal, Dr. Rashid Manzoor, Mr. Muhammad Anwar Shaikh, Ms. Sarah Saeed, Dr. Nawaz Ahmad, Mr. Aamir Mehmood, Dr. Iftikhar Amjad and Dr. Imran Ullah Khan have been very much productive for the overall improvement of this national document. Hopefully, the Survey will meet the expectations of policymakers, economists, academicians, business practioners, government agencies, students, researchers, the media personnel and those who are interested in development of Pakistan’s economy. Constructive comments and suggestions are always welcome. Dr. Imtiaz Ahmad Economic Adviser Islamabad, the 10th June 2021
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11. Dr . Imtiaz Ahmad Economic Adviser Team Leader Mr. Asif Khan Dr. Hasan Muhammad Mohsin Joint Economic Adviser Joint Economic Adviser Muhammad Shoaib Malik Mr. Zille Hasnain Deputy Economic Adviser Deputy Economic Adviser Mr. Attaullah Shah Muhammad Umar Zahid Deputy Economic Adviser Acting DG (Debt), DPCO Ms. Nazia Gul Mr. Omer Farooq Assistant Economic Adviser Assistant Economic Adviser Ms. Samina Khatoon Ms. Nargis Mazhar Assistant Economic Adviser Assistant Economic Adviser Ms. Tahira Islam Mr. Allah Nawaz Assistant Economic Adviser Assistant Economic Adviser Ms. Rabia Akbar Mr. Abdul Basit Bhatti Research Officer Assistant Economic Adviser Ms. Sidra Saddiq Hafiz Syed Muhammad Azeem Research Officer Research Officer Mr. Sangeen Khan Muhammad Abdullah Research Officer Research Associate, DPCO Mr. Faheem Anwar Mr. Saqib Ameer Technical Officer Webmaster Muhammad Faisal Shamim Composer
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13. Overview of the Economy Despite myriad of challenges , Pakistan’s economy is moving progressively on higher inclusive and sustainable growth path on the back of various measures and achievements during the year. Major achievements highlighting the economic performance during FY2021 are mentioned below:  Pakistan was implementing stabilization policy post crisis of 2017-18 and the economy was recovering from macroeconomic imbalances but COVID-19 slowed down the pace which was recovered initially but the advent of 2nd and 3rd wave brought significant challenges which were met by the timely prudent policies.  Pandemics like COVID-19 are once-in-a-century event that devastate global economies. Pakistan did much better in coping up with the pandemic compared to many countries.  Government took several important policy decisions: monetary and fiscal measures, smart lockdowns, rapid vaccination etc. National Command and Operating Centre (NCOC) as a single organization was made responsible to take key decisions in collaboration with the provinces. Situation was put under control due to government’s timely decision making, numbers of daily COVID-19 cases are presently on declining trend.  Prior to COVID-19, the working population was 55.74 million. This number declined to 35.04 million which indicates people either lost their jobs or were not able to work. Due to prudent decisions by the government, working population reached 52.56 million till October, 2020.  Economy has witnessed a V – shaped recovery. The current economic recovery has been achieved without compromising internal and external stability.  Manufacturing has witnessed broad-based growth as major sectors of LSM have shown significant improvement i.e., Textile, Food Beverages & Tobacco, Non-Metallic Mineral Products and Automobile. First nine months of FY2021 recorded highest period wise growth of 8.99 percent since FY2007.  Current account posted a surplus of $ 0.8 billion, during July-April, FY2021 for the first time in 17 years.  Inflows of foreign exchange through the Roshan Digital Account (RDA) crossed the $1 billion mark. During July-April FY2021, workers’ remittances posted historically high growth of 29 percent and reached to $ 24.2 billion.
14. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  SBP’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $16 billion, four-years high.  Keeping in view the significant performance pertaining to FATF conditions, potential of exports and e-commerce, Pakistan has been added into the Amazon’s seller list.  FBR tax collection has witnessed a significant growth of around 18 percent during July-May FY2021 owing to the revival of domestic economic activity and ongoing comprehensive tax policy and administrative reforms.  Primary balance remained in surplus at 1.0 percent of GDP, highest level through the first three quarters in 12 years.  On 27th May 2021, PSX witnessed an all-time high daily trading volume with 2.21 billion shares traded in a single session.  Due to its impressive growth, Pakistan Stock Exchange earned the title of being the best Asian stock market and fourth best-performing market across the world in 2020. (marketcurrentswealthnet.com).  Profile of domestic debt has improved significantly during the tenure of the present government as short-term debt as percentage of total domestic debt has decreased to 23 percent at end March, 2021 compared with 54 percent at end June, 2018.  Over 80 percent of the net borrowing from domestic sources was through mediumto-long term domestic debt instruments (Pakistan Investment Bonds & Government Ijara Sukuk) during first nine months of FY2021.  Pakistan has entered the international capital market after a gap of over three years by successfully raising $ 2.5 billion through Euro bonds.  The policy rate remained unchanged at 7.0 percent which improved business sentiments and thus stimulating economic activities enabling employment to recover.  During July-February FY2021, the two gas utility companies (SNGPL & SSGCL) have laid 143 Km gas transmission network, 2,616 Km distribution and 886 Km services lines and connected 70 villages/towns to the gas network. During the same period 304,573 additional gas connections including 303,243 domestic, 1,020 commercial and 310 industrial connections were provided across the country.  Installed capacity of electricity increased to 37,261 MW during July-April FY2021 compared to same period last year, showing an addition of 1,289 MW. Likewise, its generation increased to 102,742 GWh showing an additional generation of 6,360 GWh during the period under discussion. The share of Industry in electricity consumption has increased to 26.3 percent in July-March FY2021 as compared to 25.5 percent in the same period last year.  Cellular mobile subscribers (number of active SIMs) in Pakistan have reached 182 million at the end of March, 2021 compared to 167.3 million by the end of June, 2020 showing an increase of 8.6 percent in nine months of FY2021.  At end March, 2021 broadband (BB) subscribers reached to 100 million. The total BB penetration in Pakistan stood at 47.6 percent in March, 2021 registering an increase ii
15. Overview of the Economy of about 19 .7 percent as compared to end March, 2020.  Under Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme, Rs 179.3 billion has been disbursed. Approximately 14.8 million families have been benefited from the programme. World Bank recognizes Ehsaas Emergency Cash among top 4 social protection interventions globally in terms of number of people covered.  Under Kamyab Jawan Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme, Rs 8,566 million has been disbursed till April, 2021 to the youth for various businesses.  The 10 billion Tree Tsunami programme has achieved plantation of approximately 350 million plants during July-March FY2021 and about 100,000 daily wagers have been employed till March, 2021. Cumulatively, over 800 million plants have been regenerated /planted in last two years.  IMF has acknowledged that the government policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. The IMF and Pakistan have announced the resumption of stalled $ 6 billion loan programme.  During the year, all three major credit rating agencies, Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's, reaffirmed their sovereign credit Ratings for Pakistan. This reaffirmation is reflective of the sound policies of the Government and of the confidence reposed by these leading international institutions in the country's economic outlook. The overview of Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 contains three sub-sections i.e., Global Economic Review, Pakistan Economic Review and Executive Summary. The Global Economic Review briefly examines the state of the global economy and its prospects. This sub-section emphasizes notable economic successes and events at global level. It also discusses the challenges that may have an impact on the global growth projection. The second sub-section, Pakistan Economic Review, presents a comprehensive analysis of current fiscal year’s economic performance and major achievements across different sectors. While, the last sub-section, concisely presents a summary of all sixteen chapters included in the Economic Survey. Thus, it provides readers with a bird's eye view of the domestic economic situation, prospects, achievements and challenges across different sectors of the economy during the current fiscal year. I. Global Economic Review The COVID-19 outbreak that began in early 2020 has had a profound impact on the world economy. The pandemic engulfed the whole world and ravaged the health care system of many developed nations. Initially, the supply shock caused by the abrupt closing of businesses across the world transformed into an unprecedented demand shock, which had socio-economic consequences. COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented restrictions not only on the movement of people but also on a range of economic and financial activities. Supply chains and industries like tourism, travelling, hotels and hospitality, transportation and education were severely impacted. iii
16. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The human cost has been substantial , especially in developed countries despite being advanced in medical and health systems. It had exposed the lack of capacity and strained healthcare systems around the world. The health crisis has been accompanied by the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression, which has resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, closure of businesses and tipping millions into extreme poverty. It has been a crisis like no other. The Great Lockdown decimated livelihoods world-wide and pushed low-income households into abject poverty. However, to address the dual crisis i.e. health and economic, countries all over the world responded swiftly with a variety of policy measures; mostly in the form of monetary and fiscal interventions for the economy and health measures for the pandemic. The objective was to salvage the economies from potential welfare loss by compensating unemployed masses as well as businesses with the provision of necessary assistance. Since the economic activity was at a standstill, these interventions helped economies in managing the supply lines intact. On the monetary side, the central banks adopted expansionary policy stances, quickly provided liquidity support and supported credit extension to a wide array of borrowers. Simultaneously, on the fiscal side, governments helped households and businesses in the form of transfers, furlough payments, wage subsidies and liquidity support. These measures were supplemented with other aspects of social safety nets like unemployment insurance and nutrition assistance. All these actions contributed significantly to lessen the economic impact of COVID-19. Policy actions such as automatic stabilizers, discretionary measures and financial sector measures, helped the global economy from further deterioration. In absence of these measures, the global growth recession last year could have been three times worse. The global growth was estimated to contract by 3.3 percent in 2020 with the worst affected economies being the USA (-3.5 percent), UK (-9.9 percent), Japan (-4.8 percent), Germany (-4.9 percent), France (-8.9 percent) and India (-8.0 percent), etc. While China experienced a positive but slowed growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2020, which was below the level seen in 2019. The global economy is expected to rebound in 2021 and 2022, with an expected growth of 6 percent in 2021 and moderate growth of 4.4 percent in 2022. The rebound in 2021 and 2022 is expected, owing primarily to advanced economies, including a notable improvement in the USA, which is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year. Other advanced economies, such as the Euro Zone, will rebound as well, but at a slower rate. China is expected to grow at 8.4 percent in 2021 which has already started to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2020, which many other countries are not expected to do until 2023. The global outlook faces significant challenges due to divergences in the speed of recovery within and across countries, reflecting variation in pandemic-induced disruptions and the extent of policy support. The global community continued to face challenges for mitigation both on the social and economic front even after one and a half years of the COVID-19 pandemic setting in. Even after extensive assistance and a recovery that has been underway since mid-2020, unemployment and underemployment remained high. The vaccination has begun in most countries, holding the promise of eventual reductions in the severity and frequency of infections. Coverage varies considerably so far and countries are expected to achieve widespread inoculation iv
17. Overview of the Economy at different times . However, new virus mutations and the accumulating human toll posed significant concerns for the global economic outlook. The global outlook is dependent on the severity of the health crisis, the efficacy of the vaccine against new COVID-19 strains, successful implementation of well-coordinated economic policies and the development of financial conditions. The speed of recovery and the extent of medium-term damage will be determined by the variation of these drivers and their relationship with country-specific characteristics. II. Pakistan Economic Review Pakistan's economy already had volatile growth pattern over the years, with regular boom and bust cycles facing challenges in achieving long-term and inclusive growth. Unsustainable economic growth was caused by unaddressed long-standing structural issues for example, loss-making State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), weak external position due to insufficient export capacity and low FDI, under-reformed energy sector, low savings and investment. In the backdrop of these challenges, the present government focused on an economic vision of getting sustainable economic growth through improving efficiency, reducing cost of doing business, improving regulatory environment, enhancing productivity and increasing investment. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit Pakistan’s economy, the government started implementing decisive and far-reaching reforms in every sector of the economy. The reforms started to address the economic imbalances and laid the foundation for improved economic performance in terms of strengthened fiscal and external accounts, exchange rate stability and improved investor’s confidence. Moreover, inflation started to stabilize and market confidence gradually recovered. These reforms paved the way for long-term growth and to end the unsustainable growth pattern that has plagued the economy in the past. The FY2021 began in the midst of the most severe global health crisis experienced in modern history. Pakistan's economy, like rest of the world, has struggled to combat the economic consequences of COVID-19 shock through prompt measures for supporting the economy and saving the lives and livelihoods. Besides, virus containment measures, the government has implemented a comprehensive set of measures including the largest ever economic stimulus package of Rs 1,240 billion, a construction package, an expansion of the social safety net to protect the vulnerable segments of the society and supportive monetary policy stance along with targeted financial initiatives. These measures helped the economy in lessening the negative impact of the pandemic. In contrast to other world economies, Pakistan started witnessing recovery during the first half of FY2021 on the back of continued domestic economic activity due to the above stated measures along with a smart lockdown policy. As Pakistan successfully subsided the first wave of COVID-19 during the summer of 2020 through effective containment measures, the country was hit by the second wave in the fall of 2020. However, smart lockdowns and improved containment strategies aided in managing the reported cases and the resumption of economic activities. However, Pakistan is currently experiencing the third and most virulent wave of pandemic. Smart lockdowns and drastic measures on pandemic response front allowed the continuity of v
18. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 economic activities and supported the ongoing recovery . Amid the second and third waves of COVID-19, continuing accommodative fiscal and monetary policies helped the economy to move on faster recovery. The impact of the government's timely and appropriate measures is visible in the form of a V-shaped economic recovery on the back of broad-based growth across all sectors. The provisional GDP growth rate for FY2021 is estimated at 3.94 percent, higher than the targeted growth of 2.1 percent, for the outgoing fiscal year. The government is monitoring the country's situation actively and is taking necessary measures to facilitate agriculture and industry sectors to avoid the downside risk and to further accelerate the economic recovery. The GDP growth is based on 2.77, 3.57 and 4.43 percent growth in agriculture, industrial and services sector, respectively. In order to uplift the agriculture sector, the National Agriculture Emergency Programme with a cost of Rs 277 billion is already underway. Under this programme, 13 mega projects are under execution. During FY2021, the government also announced the “Rabi Package” of Rs 5.4 billion to reduce the input cost for the farmers with the special intent to increase the production of wheat in the country. In addition, the Minimum Support Price of wheat has been further enhanced from Rs 1,400 to Rs 1,800 per 40 kg to encourage wheat cultivation. Similarly, the agriculture credit disbursement target for the current fiscal year has been set at Rs 1,500 billion. These measures have borne the fruit in terms of significant growth in major and minor crops. On the industrial front, there was a significant rebound in economic activity, as LargeScale Manufacturing (LSM) gained traction. The industrial sector has witnessed a remarkable turnaround largely because of accommodative policies by the government in the form of industrial support packages; relief to export-oriented industries, duty exemption under China-Pak Free Trade Agreement-II, electricity and gas subsidy for the export-oriented industries and tax exemptions for electric vehicles manufacturers. The government’s incentives for the construction sector provided the impetus for its allied manufacturing segments. The cement industry has been given special attention by reduction of Federal Excise Duty to Rs 1.5/kg from Rs 2/kg. A National SME Policy Action Plan 2020 has been approved to provide much-needed support to SMEs. These measures enabled the resumption of business activities. The strong growth in the construction and LSM sector is likely to further broaden the recovery through the spillover effect. On the external front, the current account balance remained in surplus during the first ten months of FY2021 due to strong growth in remittances and an ongoing pickup in exports. Remittances witnessed a remarkable growth as more formal channels were opted due to restrictions imposed on informal means in the wake of COVID-19. Most importantly, measures undertaken as part of anti-money laundering regulations in accordance with FATF recommendations have also facilitated a shift from informal to formal channels of sending remittances. Similarly, efforts under the Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) and the gradual re-opening of businesses in major host countries such as the Middle East, UK and the USA also played their part in giving a boost to the remittances. Added with this, timely resumption of economic activities helped the vi
19. Overview of the Economy export sector performed relatively better than other emerging economies ; both of which led to an improvement in the external sector. It is worth mentioning here that under the IMF programme there are better prospects for the external sector which ensures that the external financing needs will be comfortably met. On fiscal side, a substantial increase in tax collection and effective management of expenditures helped in containing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP, while the primary balance continues to remain in surplus. The fiscal performance during (July-March) FY2021 shows that the fiscal consolidation policy helped in achieving fiscal discipline, increasing revenues and controlling expenditures. Especially, FBR tax collection has witnessed a double-digit growth during (July-April) FY2021 reflecting growth in economic activities despite the challenge of the third wave of COVID-19. During FY2021, SBP maintained the policy rate at 7.0 percent. The existing stance of monetary policy remained appropriate to support the economic recovery with inflation expectations well-anchored and maintaining financial stability. It is pertinent to mention that inflation all over the world remained volatile mainly due to supply-side disruptions in commodities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Rising international prices are putting pressure on domestic prices. Global food prices are at their highest in a decade (FAO). The government is closely monitoring the supply and demand for essential food commodities to mitigate the impact of international inflationary pressures and ensure a smooth supply of commodities. Similarly, the government is making all possible efforts to combat profiteering and hoarding, as well as providing essential commodities at affordable prices through establishing Sasta Bazaars and providing subsidies on essential food items at the Utility Stores. Pakistan is blessed with natural as well as human resources. Investing in human capital through skill development programme will ensure long term inclusive growth and decrease the unemployment rate. Cognizant of this fact, the government is focused to facilitate and produce opportunities for employment and financial inclusion of young people so they can play a constructive role in enhancing Pakistan's position in the global markets. In order to bridge the gap between educated and active labour market participation, the government has introduced Prime Minister’s “Kamyab Jawan Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme” and “Prime Minister's Hunarmand Programme-Skills for All" programmes. Similarly, many other short and long-term initiatives, are underway such as National Agriculture Emergency Programme, Naya Pakistan Housing Programme and Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme to accommodate the youth bulge. These Programmes will not only boost economic activities in the country but will also be helpful for the socio-economic betterment of youth and deprived segments of society. Pakistan has launched the largest-ever social protection and poverty eradication programme i.e., Ehsaas. This programme is unique in terms of coverage, policy formulation, multi-sectoral nature, monitoring framework and increased funding to deliver the programme across the country. It consists of over 140 sub programmes, policies and initiatives centered on a holistic approach to poverty alleviation. Over the course of two years, Ehsaas has received widespread global acclaim at numerous international events hosted by the UN, ADB, World Bank, UNDP and others. The Ehsaas vii
20. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 programme has recently reached a new milestone when the World Bank included the Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme in a list of the top four global social protection interventions in terms of number of people covered . In addition to the above, Pakistan has entered the international capital market after a gap of over three years by successfully raising $ 2.5 billion through a multi-tranche transaction of 5, 10 and 30 year Eurobonds under its first-ever Global Medium Term Note Programme. The IMF and Pakistan have announced the resumption of a stalled $ 6 billion loan programme as the IMF Board’s decision allowed for an immediate disbursement of SDR 350 million (about $ 500 million). IMF has acknowledged that while the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges, the government policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. Today, the economy is steadily progressing towards more sustainable and inclusive growth path. The performance in agriculture, LSM, construction and exports sectors are amongst the key success stories. The current account balance is in surplus, fiscal deficit is manageable with the primary balance in surplus, the rupee is stable and foreign exchange reserves (SBP and commercial) have reached $ 23.2 billion (as of 3rd June 2021). Most importantly, the government has effectively managed the pandemic through swift policy measures. With current year performance, it is expected that the economy will grow by 5 percent in FY2022 and will accelerate further over the medium term. The performance clearly shows that the economy is improving in the post-COVID-19 era. The start of vaccination has raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic later this year, however, the third wave with new variants of the virus has posed concerns for the outlook. Nevertheless, the government is vigilant and responding efficiently to restrain the surge of the COVID-19 virus. Social protection systems are also evolving especially to cover all vulnerable segments. The government’s prompt response eased the miseries of the most vulnerable segments of society. The business confidence has returned and economic activity is slowly getting back to normal. It is expected that macroeconomic stabilization measures and structural reforms supported by international development partners will help the economy to move on a higher and sustainable growth trajectory. III. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Growth and Investment The economy of Pakistan rebounded strongly in FY2021 and posted growth of 3.94 percent which is not only substantially higher than the previous two years (-0.47 and 2.08 percent in FY2020 and FY2019 respectively) but also surpassed the target (2.1 percent for FY2021). Despite strict fiscal constraints, timely and appropriate policy measures taken by the government resulted in a V-Shaped economic recovery. The beginning of FY2021 was better in terms of containment of pandemic and economic recovery, however the second wave in late October 2020 and the third wave in March 2021 made government efforts more challenging for containing the pandemic and keeping the economic activities to continue. Regardless of fiscal constraints, relief provision to vulnerable segments and growth support was the government’s utmost viii
21. Overview of the Economy priority . According to the World Bank report on “Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures” published on May 14, 2021, Pakistan was ranked Fourth in terms of a number of people covered while Third in terms of the percentage of population covered. Pakistan’s economy is now on course towards strong and sustained recovery. The pandemic resulted in lockdown and depressed demand. Adequate government policies were implemented to keep economy moving. Utilization of unused industrial capacities during the pandemic also helped in economic recovery. On the basis of a rebound in almost all sectors, for FY2021, the provisional GDP growth rate is estimated at 3.9 percent on account of 2.8 percent growth in Agriculture, 3.6 percent in the Industrial sector and 4.4 percent growth in the Services sector. Moreover, GDP at current market prices stood at Rs 47,709 billion, showing a growth of 14.8 percent during FY2021 over last year (Rs 41,556 billion). While in the dollar term, it remained $ 299 billion which is higher than its value recorded last year ($ 263 billion). Private Consumption has a significantly large share in GDP. This large share implies that Pakistan’s economy is a consumption-driven economy. Better consumer confidence can influence domestic production by increasing demand for durable. Growth in private consumption remained 17 percent in FY2021 as compared to 4 percent last year. On the other hand, growth in Public Consumption remained 11.4 percent, lower than 19.3 percent recorded last year, mainly due to lower growth in interest payments and squeezing of unnecessary expenditures. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) posted a growth of 13.8 percent in FY2021 and remained 13.6 percent of GDP. Private and public including the General Government being two major components of GFCF posted a growth of 6.6 percent and 38.1 percent, respectively. In aggregate demand, historically contribution of Net Exports usually remained negative. For FY2021, in National Accounts, Exports of Goods and Services posted a growth of 13.6 percent while Imports of Goods and Services posted growth of 20.1 percent. However, for current year, capital goods and raw materials were the main imports which in turn helped in the growth of exports as well as domestic economic recovery. FY2019 was an era of stabilization, while FY2020 was not only humanitarian crisis but economy also suffered contraction. Economic growth remained 3.94 percent in FY2021 posting quicker significant economic recovery which can be attributed to three factors. (i) The government made better management in controlling the pandemic which kept businesses going on and confidence high in FY2021. (ii) Fiscal Stimulus of Rs 1.24 trillion along with monetary support given in the pandemic. (iii) Due to quicker vaccination which supported economic recovery earlier than expected. 2. Agriculture The agriculture sector’s performance during 2020-21 broadly stands encouraging as it grows by 2.77 percent against the target of 2.8 percent. The growth of important crops ix
22. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 (wheat, rice, sugarcane, maize and cotton) during the year is 4.65 percent. The production of major Kharif crops 2020, such as sugarcane, maize and rice indicated considerable improvement compared to last year and surpassed the production targets. The production of sugarcane increased by 22.0 percent to 81.009 million tonnes from 66.380 million tonnes, rice by 13.6 percent to 8.419 million tonnes from 7.414 million tonnes and maize by 7.4 percent to 8.465 million tonnes from 7.883 million tonnes. However, the cotton crop suffered mainly due to decline in area sown, heavy monsoon rains and pest attacks. The cotton production reduced by 22.8 percent to 7.064 million bales from 9.148 million bales last year. Wheat is the most important crop of “Rabi”, which showed growth of 8.1 percent and reached record high production level of 27.293 million tonnes compared to 25.248 million tonnes last year. For the Rabi crops 2020-21, the government provided a comprehensive “Rabi Package” comprising of subsidies on fertilizer, fungicides and weedicides, together with an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of wheat to Rs 1,800 per 40 Kg. Other crops having a share of 11.69 percent in agriculture value addition and 2.24 percent in GDP, showed growth of 1.41 percent because of increase in production of fodder, vegetables and fruits. Cotton ginning declined by 15.58 percent due to fall in the production of cotton crop. The overall crops sector, having a share of 35.81 percent in agriculture value addition and 6.87 percent in GDP, witnessed a growth of 2.47 percent. Water availability during Kharif 2020 remained at 65.1 million acre feet (MAF) showing a slight decrease of 0.2 percent compared to 65.2 MAF of Kharif 2019. Rabi season 2020-21 received 31.2 MAF, showing an increase of 6.9 percent over Rabi 2019-20. Domestic production of fertilizer during FY2021 (July-March) increased by 5.9 percent over the same period of the previous year mainly due to increase in supply of additional gas. There was an upsurge in total off-take of fertilizer nutrients by 15.2 percent largely due to upward revision in support price of wheat and decrease in the price of urea by 12 percent. During FY2021 (July-March), total tractor production was 36,653 compared to 23,266 produced last year, an increase of 57.5 percent. The production increase was largely due to an improved liquidity position of farmers. The agriculture lending institutions have disbursed Rs 953.7 billion during July-March, FY2021 which is 63.6 percent of the overall annual target of Rs 1,500 billion and 4.6 percent higher than the disbursement of Rs 912.2 billion made during the same period last year. Livestock having a share of 60.07 percent in agriculture and 11.53 percent in GDP, achieved a growth of 3.06 percent. The fishing sector, with a share of 2.01 percent in agriculture value addition and 0.39 percent in GDP, grew by 0.73 percent, while forestry sector having share of 2.10 percent in agriculture and 0.40 percent in GDP, grew by 1.42 percent. x
23. Overview of the Economy 3 . Manufacturing and Mining The Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) performance has been much favorable during July-March FY2021 and witnessed 8.99 percent growth as compared to 5.1 percent decline during the same period last year. The government’s thoughtful decision to resume the business activities and adoption of smart lockdown boosted the business sentiments and the economy gained traction after witnessing a hefty decline in FY2020. Targeted fiscal and monetary incentives accompanied by related support packages helped speed up the economic recovery. Out of 15 subsectors, nine posted growth during July-March FY2021. Textile and Food Beverages & Tobacco, the top two sectors of LSM, grew by 5.9 and 11.7 percent, respectively. Coke & Petroleum Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products, Automobile and Pharmaceuticals also grew by 12.71, 24.31, 23.38 and 12.57 percent, respectively. The Mining and Quarrying sector declined by 6.49 percent during FY2021, against 8.28 percent contraction last year. This sector is lagging behind despite huge potential due to interconnected and cross-cutting issues like poor regulatory framework, insufficient infrastructure at mines sites, outdated technology installed, semi-skilled labor, low financial support and lack of marketing. During July-March FY2021, production of major minerals plunged such as Coal, Natural Gas and Crude Oil declined by 5.97, 4.70 and 6.72 percent, respectively. However, some minerals witnessed positive growth during the period under review such as Chromite 28.28 percent, Magnesite 6.17 percent, Rock Salt 5.44 percent and Iron Ore 26.23 percent. 4. Fiscal Development The fiscal sector has witnessed significant challenges due to additional expenditures made to lessen the negative impact of COVID-19. However, the government's fiscal consolidation efforts provided significant support in maintaining fiscal discipline, increasing revenues and controlling expenditures, thus the fiscal sector continued to perform better. The fiscal deficit was contained at 3.5 percent of GDP during July-March FY2021 against 4.1 percent of GDP in the same period of last year. The primary balance posted a surplus of Rs 451.8 billion during July-March, FY2021 against the surplus of Rs 193.5 billion in same period last year. The FBR tax collection witnessed a significant rise in ten months. During July-April, FY2021 the total collection grew by 14.4 percent to stand at Rs 3,780.3 billion against Rs 3,303.4 billion in the same period of FY2020. Encouragingly, the tax collection surpassed the target by more than Rs 100 billion during the period under review. The revenue performance is not only a reflection of growing economic activities without any disruption even in the wake of the third wave of COVID-19, but it also suggests that the efforts to improve the tax collection through various policy and administrative reforms are bearing the fruits. The non-tax revenues stood at Rs 1,227.6 billion during July-March FY2021 against Rs 1,324.4 billion in the same period of last year, showing a decline of 7.3 percent. The decline is mainly attributed to the absence of a one-off renewal fee for GSM licenses from telecommunication companies. xi
24. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The efficient expenditure management effectively curtailed the overall expenditures during the current fiscal year . Total expenditures grew by 4.2 percent during July-March FY2021 as compared with the growth of 15.8 percent observed in the same period of FY2020. Presently, the fiscal policy measures are mainly focused on relief measures to support businesses and to protect vulnerable segments of society. Simultaneously, the government is focused on containing the fiscal deficit at a manageable level and keeping the primary balance at a sustainable level. The fiscal performance during the first three quarters of FY2021 is satisfactory. However, challenges to fiscal performance still persist which largely depend on the domestic and international evolution of COVID-19 and its perils for the economy. Nevertheless, effective revenue mobilization and prudent expenditure management strategy would be supportive in coping with these challenges. 5. Money and Credit After the COVID-19 outbreak, the State Bank of Pakistan proactively reduced the policy rate by a cumulative 625 bps from 13.25 percent to 7.0 percent, within almost 3 months between March and June 2020. The target of monetary policy was shifted towards supporting growth and employment during the pandemic. During FY2021, SBP has continued with an accommodative monetary policy stance with 7.0 percent policy rate which has supported the economic recovery while keeping inflation expectations under control and safeguarding financial stability. Besides sharply lowering the borrowing cost, SBP introduced a host of measures aimed at supporting the businesses and households during the challenging time. These measures, along with a fiscal stimulus package especially for revival of construction, led to a quick turnaround in economic activity in the country during FY2021. During the period 1st July-30th April, FY2021 Broad money witnessed an expansion of Rs 1,664.8 billion (growth of 8.0 percent) against Rs 1,698.1 billion (growth of 9.5 percent) during the same period last year. Growth in money supply mainly contributed by Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system, which increased by Rs 950.2 billion against an expansion of Rs 931.1 billion last year, reflecting an improved balance of payment position. Whereas, Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the banking system observed an expansion of Rs 714.6 billion during the period under review compared to an expansion of Rs 767.0 billion during same period last year. During the period 1st July-30th April, FY2021, overall private sector credit witnessed an expansion of Rs 454.5 billion against Rs 318.5 billion last year. On a positive note, fixed investment loans increased significantly by Rs 140.4 billion during July-April, FY2021 against the borrowing of Rs 0.4 billion same period last year, which augurs well for the industrial sector and overall economic growth in the coming years. The government has borrowed Rs 675.9 billion for budgetary support during 1st July-30th April, FY2021 compared to Rs 1,171.3 billion in the same period last year. Within budgetary support, the government has borrowed Rs 1,840.6 billion from scheduled banks as compared to the borrowing of Rs 1,813.4 billion in a comparable xii
25. Overview of the Economy period last year . On the other hand, the government has retired Rs 1,164.7 billion to SBP as compared to the retirement of Rs 642.2 billion during the same period last year. This shows a continuation of government adherence to zero borrowing from the central bank. 6. Capital Markets & Corporate Sector During FY2021, Global equity markets, which plummeted in March 2020, rebounded when governments around the globe injected big stimulus money into their economies. Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) also successfully powered through the initial COVID-19 induced economic downturn and earned the title of being the ‘best Asian stock market and fourth best-performing market across the world in 2020.’ During July-May FY2021, the benchmark KSE-100 index improved from 34,889 points to 47,896 points, gaining 13,006 points in the said period. As of May 31, 2021, the total market capitalization of the Pakistan Stock Exchange was Rs 8,267 billion. An increase of 26.6 percent was witnessed in market capitalization, compared with the June 30, 2020 market capitalization of Rs 6,529 billion. Though the third wave of COVID-19 dragged the KSE-100 index down in March and April of FY2021, reforms introduced by the SECP and the government’s pro-growth policies are helping the capital market to withstand the pressure. The distinguishing feature of this year is the significant number of IPOs that took place. Despite the COVID-19 outbreak, Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed five IPOs between July 2020 and March 2021. These five are: The Organic Meat Company, TPL Trakker, Agha Steel Industries, Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited and Panther Tyres Limited. During July-March FY2021, corporations raised Rs 96.9 billion by issuing seventeen debt securities. While 93 previous corporate debt securities worth Rs 782.875 billion remain outstanding. 7. Inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the period July-May FY2021 was recorded at 8.8 percent against 10.9 percent during the same period last year. The other inflationary indicators like the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) was recorded at 13.5 percent against 14.0 percent last year. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was recorded at 8.4 percent in July-May FY2021 compared to 11.1 percent last year. During July-May FY2021, National CPI inflation for FY2021 remained lower than same period last year. Administrative measures including a crackdown on speculative elements and resumption of seasonal supplies of perishables helped to minimize the inflationary pressures. Furthermore, tax relief measures in Budget FY2021 in response to COVID-19 also provided relief in terms of stable prices of various goods. At the beginning of FY2021, a major contribution to increase in inflation in both urban and rural baskets came from food groups mainly due to the extended monsoon season. The government realizing the significance of supply disruption started establishing Sahulat/Bachat Bazar in all parts of the country. The rise in the prices of global agrarian xiii
26. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 products and other commodities especially oil contributed to domestic inflation as well . As far as oil prices are concerned, the government did not pass on the burden of price increase to the general public proportionately in order to maintain price stability. 8. Trade and Payments Amidst the uncertain and precarious global economic environment, where the global economy was lurching under the impact of the unprecedented COVID-19 shock, Pakistan’s external sector has appeared as a key buffer for resilience. The comfortable external balance position of Pakistan has been supported by surplus current account balance on the back of robust flow of remittances and a sustained recovery in exports. Furthermore, improvements in the services and primary income account also provided a cushion to turn the current account deficit of $ 4.7 billion in FY2020 into a surplus of $ 773 million during July-April FY2021. The inflow of workers’ remittances in Pakistan has been rising consistently since FY2018 and the trend continued in FY2021 with a meritorious growth of 29.0 percent and reached $ 24.2 billion during July-April FY2021. Export of goods grew by 6.5 percent during July-April FY2021 and stood at $ 21 billion as compared to $ 19.7 billion in the same period last year. Import of goods grew by 13.5 percent to $ 42.3 billion as compared to $ 37.3 billion last year. Consequently, the trade deficit increased by 21.3 percent to $ 21.3 billion as compared to $ 17.6 billion last year. Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased to $ 22.7 billion by the end of April 2021, up by $ 3.8 billion, indicating a growth of 20.1 percent over the end-June 2020. On account of increased foreign exchange reserves, supported by remittances, exports and financial support from International Financial Institutions, the Pakistani Rupee started to appreciate. The introduction of a market-based exchange rate regime also helped to stabilize the Rupee and the exchange rate reached Rs 153.5 per $ by the end of April 2021, effectively appreciating by 9.5 percent over end-June 2020. 9. Public Debt Total public debt was recorded at Rs 38,006 billion at end March 2021. Domestic debt was recorded at Rs 25,552 billion while external public debt was recorded at Rs 12,454 billion or $ 81.6 billion at end March 2021. Pakistan has been able to contain the growth in its public debt portfolio despite a very challenging macroeconomic situation around the globe due to the pandemic. In fact, Pakistan witnessed one of the smallest increases in its public debt. Global public debt to GDP Ratio increased by 13 percentage points, from 84 percent in 2019 to 97 percent in 2020, whereas, Pakistan’s Debt-to-GDP ratio witnessed minimal increase of 1.7 percentage points and stood at 87.6 percent at end June 2020 compared with 85.9 percent at end June 2019. The Debt-to-GDP ratio of Pakistan is expected to reduce and will remain below 84 percent at the end of current fiscal year. xiv
27. Overview of the Economy Public debt portfolio witnessed various positive developments during ongoing fiscal year , some of them are highlighted as follows:  Over 80 percent of the net borrowing from domestic sources was through mediumto-long-term domestic debt instruments;  In-line with the government’s commitment, no new borrowing was made from State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). In fact, government repaid Rs 569 billion during the ongoing fiscal year against its debt owed to SBP. The cumulative debt retirement against SBP debt stood over Rs 1.1 trillion during last two fiscal years;  Refinancing risk of debt portfolio reduced significantly during the tenure of the present government. Short-term debt as percentage of total domestic debt has decreased to around 23 percent at end March 2021 compared with 54 percent at end June 2018;  The Rs 25,000, Rs 15,000 and Rs 7,500 denominations prize bonds were withdrawn from circulation in order to improve the documentation of the economy. The holders have been given options to (i) convert to premium prize bonds; or (ii) replace them with eligible National Savings Certificates; or (iii) encash at face value into their bank accounts;  Pakistan entered the international capital market after a gap of over three years by successfully raising $ 2.5 billion through a multi-tranche transaction of 5-, 10- and 30-year Eurobonds under its first-ever Global Medium Term Note Programme;  Pakistan is availing the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) for a period of 20-months (May 2020 - December 2021) which will help to defer the debt servicing impact to the tune of around $ 3.7 billion during this period. Total interest servicing was recorded at Rs 2,104 billion during first nine months of current fiscal year against its annual budgeted estimate of Rs 2,946 billion. Out of this total, domestic interest payments were Rs 1,934 billion and constituted around 92 percent of total interest servicing during first nine months of current fiscal year which is mainly attributable to higher volume of domestic debt in total public debt portfolio. Pakistan’s strategy to reduce its debt burden to a sustainable level includes commitment to run primary surpluses, maintain low and stable inflation, promote measures that support higher long-term economic growth and follow an exchange rate regime based on economic fundamentals. With narrower fiscal deficit, public debt is projected to enter a firm downward path while government’s efforts to improve maturity structure will enhance public debt sustainability. 10. Education Present government is committed to achieve Goal 4 of SDGs i.e., “Quality Education”; which stipulates equitable education, removal of discrimination, provision and up-gradation of infrastructure, skill development for sustainable progress, universal literacy, numeracy and enhancement of professional capacity of teachers. xv
28. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 A Single National Curriculum (SNC) has been designed with the vision of one system of education for all, in terms of curriculum, medium of instruction and a common platform of assessment, so that all children have a fair and equal opportunity to receive high quality education. The total number of enrolment during 2018-19 was recorded at 52.5 million as compared to 51.0 million during 2017-18, which shows an increase of 2.9 percent. The enrolment is estimated to increase to 55.0 million during 2019-20. The number of institutes (both public and private) reached to 273.4 thousand during 2018-19 as compared to 262.0 thousand during 2017-18. However, the number of institutes is estimated to increase to 279.4 thousand in 2019-20. The number of teachers during 2018-19 were 1.76 million as compared to 1.77 million during the last year. The number of teachers is estimated to increase to 1.80 million during 2019-20. According to the PSLM, District Level Survey 2019-20, the literacy rate of population (10 years and above) is stagnant at 60 percent in 2019-20 as compared to 2014-15. Province wise analysis suggests that Punjab has the highest literacy rate, with 64 percent followed by Sindh with 58 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas) with 55 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Including Merged Areas) with 53 percent and Balochistan with 46 percent. Public expenditures (federal & provincial governments) on education were estimated at 1.5 percent of GDP in 2019-20, as compared to 2.3 percent in 2018-19. The educationrelated expenditures decreased by 29.6 percent i.e., from Rs 868.0 billion to Rs 611.0 billion due to closure of educational institutes, amid country-wide lockdown and decrease in current expenditures (other than salaries) due to COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has not only created a health crisis in the country but also adversely affected other sectors including education sector. In order to mitigate the learning losses of students during the closure of educational institutes, the government has launched initiatives like Tele School and Radio School to provide distance learning and addressed provision of education to the children of far flung and remote areas during the pandemic. 11. Health and Nutrition The COVID-19 pandemic has tested the country’s health infrastructure and identified the need for more investment in the health sector especially for diagnostic facilities, disease surveillance, disease prevention and spread, training of health personnel and their protection from the pandemic, vaccine development, up-grading health care infrastructure, emergency rooms, intensive care units, isolation wards and public awareness. In order to make substantial progress on Goal 3 of SDGs (Good Health and Wellbeing), the Government of Pakistan has given priority to strengthen the health sector to further resolve and address the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The health-related expenditure increased by 14.3 percent from Rs 421.8 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) in 2018-19 to Rs 482.3 billion (1.2 percent of GDP) in 2019-20. xvi
29. Overview of the Economy In Pakistan , the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 26 February 2020, when the first patient in Karachi tested positive. The first wave of COVID-19 claimed 6,795 lives, infected 332,186 and left behind 632 on ventilators. The government announced the second wave of COVID-19 on 28 October 2020, when there was a sudden increase in active cases from 6,000 to 11,000 and 93 hospitalized patients were put on ventilators. The third wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan started on 17 March 2021, when daily cases reached 3,000 with a positivity rate of 10 percent. Pakistan formally launched the coronavirus vaccination drive on 03 February 2021. China has donated 1.5 million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine, which has an efficacy of 79 percent. Till 2nd June, 2021, a total of 13.0 million doses of vaccine have been received by the Government of Pakistan and 8.3 million doses have been administered as on 5th June, 2021. The government is fully committed to increase the health coverage and provision of good nutrition to meet the emerging demand and to develop the effective human capital. 12. Population, Labour Force and Employment According to the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) estimated population of Pakistan is 215.25 million with a population growth rate of 1.80 percent in 20201 and population density of 270 per Km2. Pakistan has an extraordinary asset in the shape of youth bulge, which means that the largest segment of our population consists of young people. The population falling in the age group of 15-59 years is 59 percent, whereas 27 percent is between 15-29 years. This youth bulge can translate into economic gains only if the youth have skills consistent with the requirements of a modern economy. The government has started different programmes for improving employment opportunities for youth such as "Prime Minister's Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme" and "Prime Minister's Hunarmand Programme-Skills for All” etc. According to the "Special Survey for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Wellbeing of People" conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, population working were 55.74 million, prior to COVID-19. This number declined to 35.04 million which indicates people either lost their jobs or were not able to work. The government announced package for construction sector and provided industrial relief, etc. Thus opening of these sectors, in which daily wagers were working along with fiscal stimulus and monetary measures, helped economy to recover. Thus according to the survey in August-October FY2021, 52.56 million resumed jobs. 13. Transport and Communication Due to COVID-19, the scheduled flight operations to most parts of the country and the globe remained suspended. However, Pakistan International Airline Corporation (PIAC) operated special flights to facilitate stranded Pakistanis abroad. 1 Population data reported in the chapter is based on Census 1998. Census Results 2017 have been released by PBS. NIPS will provide projected data accordingly, with the consultation of PBS and M/o Planning, Development &Special Initiatives. The revised Population data will be published in Statistical Supplement PES 2020-21. xvii
30. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Pakistan Railways is a major mode of transport in the public sector , contributing to the country’s economic growth and providing national integration. Pakistan Railways comprises a total of 466 locomotives (461 Diesel Engine and 05 Steam Engines) for the 7,791 km route length. During July-February FY2021, gross earnings have been recorded at Rs 30,966.11 million against Rs 36,916.85 million. Pakistan National Shipping Cooperation Group has made significant progress in bulk and liquid cargo segments. Despite the pandemic, the Group has managed to achieve a profit of Rs 1,235 million as against Rs 1,411 million in the corresponding period last year. The turnover stands at Rs 9,633 million compared to Rs 9,621 million for the previous year’s corresponding period. Revenue of the tanker segment, including foreign charters, grew by 7.12 percent from Rs 6,195 million to Rs 6,635 million. The increase in revenues reflects the growth in the operational activity of the Group. There has been a consistent growth in IT & IT-enabled services (ITeS) remittances over the last 5 years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.85 percent, the highest growth rate in comparison with all other industries and the highest in the region. Micro enterprises, independent consultants and freelancers have contributed an estimated $ 500 million in IT & ITeS exports. The annual domestic revenue exceeds $ 1 billion. IT export remittances, including telecommunication, computer and information services have surged to $ 1.298 billion at a growth rate of 41.39 percent during JulyFebruary FY2021, in comparison to $ 918 million during the corresponding period of FY2020. ITeS export remittances comprising of computer services and call center services have surged to $ 1.113 billion at a growth of 41.65 percent during July-February FY2021 as compared to $ 785.686 million during same period last year. The number of Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB) registered IT & ITeS companies as of 30th March 2021, is 3,013 compared to 2,484 as of March 2020, showing a growth of 21 percent. FDI in telecom during July-February FY2021 was $ 101.1 million. Telecom operators have invested an amount of $ 363.9 million during July-February FY2021. The main driver behind this investment is the cellular mobile sector which has invested $ 253.5 million during the period. The overall investment in the telecom sector during the two quarters of FY2021 crossed $ 465.0 million. Cellular mobile subscribers (number of active Sims) in Pakistan reached 182 million at the end of March 2021 compared to 167.3 million at the end of June 2020, showing a growth of 8.6 percent in nine months. Broadband connections as of end March 2021, increased to 100 million registering 19.7 percent increase as compared to FY2020. PEMRA has issued 258 Licenses for FM Radio and 4,173 Cable TV Licenses. PEMRA has deposited over Rs 105.0 billion in national exchequer. 14. Energy Pakistan’s reliance on thermal which includes imported coal, local coal, RLNG and natural gas has been decreasing over the last few years. Pakistan’s dependence on natural gas in the overall energy mix is on the decline and the reduction of its share in the energy mix may be attributed to declining natural gas reserves as well as to the introduction of LNG since 2015. xviii
31. Overview of the Economy Regarding consumption pattern , there is no considerable change in the consumption pattern of electricity. During July-April FY2021, the share of agriculture in electricity consumption is consistent at 8.9 percent. However, the share of Industry in electricity consumption has increased to 26.3 percent in July-March FY2021 as compared to 25.5 percent in the same period last year. NEPRA has extended advice to the concerned entities, including Federal/ Provincial Governments, on various power sector issues. A landmark decision was taken by the Detailed Design and Implementation Plan of Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM) to make the competitive wholesale electricity market operational by April 2022 and ushering a new era of transparency, predictability and credibility whereby electricity shall be traded like any other commodity. NEPRA also established Occupational Health, Safety & Environment (HSE) Department to enhance the safe and smooth operations and well-being of licensee employees, contractors and community as a whole. Crude oil’s local extraction and imports reached to 68.9 million barrels in July-March FY2021 from 58.6 million barrel in corresponding period last year, while share of import in July-March FY2021 remained 48.2 million barrel as compared to 38.8 million barrel in last year same period. Similarly, in July-March FY2021, consumption of petroleum products increased to 14.7 million tonnes from 12.5 million tonnes. LPG plays an important role in the energy mix of Pakistan as it provides a cleaner alternative to biomass-based sources, especially in locations where natural gas is not available. The total supply of LPG during July–March, FY2021 was 927,683 metric tonnes. Currently, there are 11 LPG producers and 216 LPG marketing companies operating in the country having more than 7,000 authorized distributors. During July-February FY2021, the average natural gas consumption was about 3,723 Million Cubic Feet per day (MMCFD) including 950 MMCFD volume of RLNG. During JulyFebruary FY2021, the two gas utility companies (SNGPL & SSGCL) have laid a 143 Km gas transmission network, 2,616 Km distribution and 886 Km services lines and connected 70 villages/towns to the gas network. Moreover, 304,573 additional gas connections including 303,243 Domestic, 1,020 Commercial and 310 Industrial were provided across the country. 15. Social Protection Social protection has a central role to play in addressing the social, economic and health dimensions of the COVID-19 crisis. The Ehsaas Emergency Cash programme has proven to be effective in mitigating the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 pandemic. The Government has disbursed Rs 179.8 billion as one-time emergency cash assistance to 14.8 million families at risk of extreme poverty. Since the launch of Ehsaas, many transformative initiatives and policy reforms have effectively been implemented nationwide. Some of the Ehsaas’ early wins across various sectors include Ehsaas Kafaalat, Ehsaas Emergency Cash, Ehsaas Undergraduate Scholarship, Ehsaas Nashonuma, Ehsaas Langars, Ehsaas Interest-Free Loans, Ehsaas Amdan and several others. xix
32. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Under Ehsaas Kafaalat Programme , the government is providing cash stipends of Rs 2,000 monthly. Number of Kafaalat beneficiaries has been increased from 4.6 million to 7 million. All payments are being made through the new biometric Ehsaas Digital Payment System ensuring transparency. Under Ehsaas strategy, interest free loans are a major component of the National Poverty Graduation Initiative. Since July 2019 to March 2021, a total of 1.2 million loans (46 percent loans to women) have been disbursed amounting Rs 44.42 billion. Overall, 1,100 loan centers/branches have been established in about 110 districts by 24 partner organizations across the country. During July-March FY2021, a total of 490,368 interest free loans (47 percent loans to women) amounting to Rs 17.50 billion have been disbursed to the borrowers. Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) also helps in micro-credit, water, health, education and livelihood. Since its inception in April 2000 till March 2021, PPAF has disbursed an amount of approximately Rs 228 billion to its Partner Organizations (POs) in 144 districts across the country. A total of 8.4 million microcredit loans have been disbursed with 60 percent loans to women and 80 percent financing extended to rural areas. The overall disbursements for core operations during July-March FY2021 amounted to Rs 2.64 billion. Pakistan Baitul Mal (PBM) is providing financial assistance to the destitute, widows, orphans and other needy persons at the district level. During July-March FY2021, PBM has disbursed an amount of Rs 3.0 billion through its core projects. Workers Welfare Fund during July-March, FY2021 disbursed Rs 2.47 billion on 33,679 scholarship cases, while Rs 573.44 million have been utilized as marriage grants @Rs 100,000 per worker benefitting 5,736 workers' families. The WWF has also disbursed Rs 496.55 million as a death grant @Rs 500,000 per worker, covering 994 cases of mishaps all over the country. EOBI provides monetary benefits to old age workers through various programmes such as Old Age Pension, Invalidity Pension, Survivors Pension and Old Age Grant. During July-March FY2021, an amount of Rs 34.06 billion has been utilized for 399,574 beneficiaries. 16. Climate Change The changes in climate had started around fifty years back due to rapid industrialization with substantial geopolitical consequences. As things stand, we are at a crossroads for a much warmer world. According to German Watch, Pakistan is among the top ten countries most affected by climate change in the past 20 years. The reasons behind this include the impact of back-to-back floods since 2010, the worst drought episode (19982002) as well as more recent droughts in Tharparkar and Cholistan, the intense heat wave in Karachi (and Southern Pakistan generally) in July 2015, severe windstorms in Islamabad in June 2016, increased cyclonic activity and increased incidences of landslides and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the northern parts of the country. xx
33. Overview of the Economy To revive the forest cover and wildlife resources in Pakistan the government has launched the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme . The programme has achieved a plantation of 350 million plants in the first three quarters of FY2021 and about 100,000 daily wagers have been employed till March 2021. Cumulatively, more than 800 million plants have been regenerated / planted in the last two years with a target to reach one billion by June 2021. To mitigate the negative impacts of the automobile sector emissions on the environment and giving a boost to the economy, the Government has approved its National Electric Vehicle Policy targeting a 30 percent shift to electric by 2030. xxi
34.                              
35. Chapter 1 Growth and Investment Economy of Pakistan rebounded strongly in FY2021 and posted growth of 3 .94 percent which is not only substantially higher than the previous two years (-0.47 and 2.08 percent in FY2020 and FY2019 respectively) but also surpassed the target (2.1 percent for FY2021). Despite strict fiscal constraints, timely and appropriate policy measures taken by the government resulted in a V-Shaped economic recovery. Start of 2021, amid worldwide vaccination campaigns, the global economy started showing healthy signs of recovery, however, third wave of the pandemic tempered the pace of economic recovery. The pandemic which has already induced shocks like lockdowns, border closures, collapse of trade, travel bans and financial market volatility globally. Third wave in Euro Area, UK, India and many other countries further intensified these restrictions thus affecting the global supply chains. Experts started projecting difference in recovery on the basis of divergent circumstances of each country and the idiosyncrasies of its policy response. It was argued that success in the post-pandemic era will reflect a constellation of policies and capacities peculiar to each country, including national vaccination rates, integration into major economic blocks, the ability to provide fiscal and monetary stimulus and the restoration of solvency in the private sector. For Pakistani economy, this pandemic also became a severe challenge as country was already under the pressure of stabilization required to address Balance of Payments crisis emerged in FY2018. Thus, both consecutive adverse shocks; stabilization pressure owing to Balance of Payments (BoP) crisis and COVID-19 pandemic put the economy far below its potential level which resulted in a negative growth in FY2020. First wave of pandemic started in April 2020 (Fig-1), depressed majority of economic activities. Fig-1.1: COVID -19 in Pakistan New cases (7 day MA) Total deaths (RHS) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Source: https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data 29-May-21 23-Apr-21 18-Mar-21 10-Feb-21 5-Jan-21 30-Nov-20 25-Oct-20 19-Sep-20 14-Aug-20 9-Jul-20 3-Jun-20 28-Apr-20 23-Mar-20 16-Feb-20 -5000
36. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Beginning of new fiscal year was better in term of containment of pandemic and economic recovery , however second wave in late October 2020 and third wave in March 2021 made government efforts more challenging for containing the pandemic and keeping the economic activities to continue. Real GDP growth of 3.94 percent in FY2021 is V-shaped economic recovery which shows concerted efforts of government for addressing structural issues to avoid further macroeconomic imbalances. The government also took some immediately requisite measures for sustainable and robust growth along with protecting the most vulnerable segments of the society. Given fiscal constraints, the government had also to address public health issues faced because of pandemic, uplift the weaker segment of society that suffered due to lockdowns and keep the economy moving. Further unlike past, the government restricted itself in borrowing from SBP and also followed expenditurecontrol measures in context of the structural changes for conducting fiscal policy measures. Relief provision to vulnerable segments and growth support was government’s utmost priority. However, high interest payments (July-March FY2021 Rs 2.1 trillion ($ 13.1 billion); 4.6 percent of GDP; 32 percent of Total Expenditures) restricted expenditure side from going all out with options, while the fiscal position further became weaker due to sharp decline in non-tax revenues (7.3 percent decline in July-March FY2021 compared to corresponding period last year). Still government has not made any compromise on relief provision to vulnerable segments. In FY2021, allocation for Ehsaas Programme has been increased from Rs 187 billion ($ 1.17 billion) to Rs 208 billion ($1.30 billion) to provide relief to vulnerable segments of society which was affected by pandemic in term of health and livings. Under “Ehsaas Emergency Cash Program”, 14.8 million families were benefited. It was the commitment which also made the Programme globally recognized. According to World Bank report on “Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures” published on May 14, 2021, Pakistan is ranked Fourth in terms of number of people covered while Third in terms of the percentage of population covered, and remained amongst those that covered over 100 million people (Fig -1.2). Fig - 1.2: Top 10 cash transfer programmes by actual coverage (million people) 206.5 India (PMJDY) United States (First stimulus check 2020) Japan (Universal one-off transfer) Pakistan (Ehssas emergency cash) China (Dibao) Philippines (Emergency subsidy program) Brazil (AE) Korea, Rep. (Universal one-off program) Indonesia (BLT Dana Desa) Indonesia (BST) Source: World Bank 160.0 116.5 100.9 83.9 69.3 68.2 51.6 42.5 34.7 30 80 130 180 This is an indication that contrary to earlier trickle-down approach, the government followed growth-oriented policies along with protection of vulnerable segments. The government is also considering bottom-up approach for economic growth. Since COVID19 outbreak, the government started giving special attention to the sector on which 2
37. Growth and Investment majority of daily wagers were dependent which affected livings of these people due to lockdowns and the measures are still continuing . Earlier in April 2020, the government opened the Construction sector and given special package which includes amnesty scheme for investors, tax exemptions, diaspora investment incentives and a Rs 36 billion subsidies (for 10 years) under their niche Naya Pakistan Programme. The government has extended tax amnesty till June 2021, while allowing a fixed tax regime till December 2021. Likewise, the government has also given special attention to Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs). On 8th October 2020, Prime Minister also approved a National SME Policy Action Plan 2020 to provide much needed support to SMEs. The plan focuses on key areas including SME definition, access to finance, business development services, skills & human resource, technology, market access, infrastructure and entrepreneurship. Since start of current fiscal year, strong rebound in LSM index was also observed. In March FY2021, LSM index remained 155.6 which is 82 percent higher than 85.6 observed in April FY2020. Thus, the government appropriate and in time measures not only built business confidence but also helped in strong economic recovery earlier and more than predicted. In context of growth with protection of vulnerable segments, the mentioned government measured kept Per capita income in Pakistani rupees to continue its increasing trend. However, rebound was seen in per capita income in dollar term which reflects both stability of exchange rate and real economic growth. Fig - 1.3 B: Per Capita Income in Thousand Dollars Fig - 1.3 A: Per Capita Income in Million Rupees 0.25 2.0 0.20 1.5 0.15 1.0 0.10 0.5 0.05 - FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics FY 2021 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Although in FY2018, real GDP growth remained 5.5 percent and per Capita Income was $ 1,630. However, Gross External Financing requirements also soared to around $ 30 billion thus caused unsustainable fundamentals on Balance of Payments (BoP) side. More specifically, the total expenditures in the economy substantially exceeded the income generated by the various sectors of the economy. This resulted in a substantial current account deficit of the BoP, which was financed by running down the country’s official reserves up to the point that the State Bank had no further resources to maintain the exchange rate. The incumbent government thus took difficult decisions in rationalizing exchange rate and aligned it to the market value-based exchange rate adjustments. In FY2021, external account was stabilized, economic revival started through resumption of economic activities and containment of initial domestic spread of the pandemic, even lead to an appreciation in the Pak Rupee vs. dollar. Most importantly, the growth of imports has been more in those inputs in which tariff 3
38. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 rationalization took place which can be Fig - 1 .4: Top 10 Remittance-Recieving Countries in 2020* ($ Billion) used as raw material which in turn helped India in increase of exports. Workers’ 83.1 China 59.5 remittances, on the other hand, with Mexico 42.9 government scheme of “Roshan Digital Philippines 34.9 Account” proved instrumental in Egypt 29.6 Pakistan 26.1 providing the necessary foreign reserves France 24.5 for current account improvement. During Bangladesh 21.8 July-April FY2021, remittances soared to Germany 17.9 Nigeria 17.2 $ 24.2 billion posting a growth of 29 Source: KNOMAD via World Bank percent. However, from the demand side during current fiscal year, it was observed that pace of exports remained slow mainly due to ongoing restriction in its trading partners. Economic recovery was thus seen in start of current fiscal year, on the back of increase in domestic production to be used in domestic markets. On the basis of expectation, Pakistan was among the top ten remittances recipient in the world as shown in Fig -1.4. However, in calendar year 2020, Pakistan received $ 26.0 billion while from January to April in 2021, worker remittances remained $ 10.0 billion showing a growth of 35 percent compared to corresponding period last year ($ 7.4 billion). The remittances thus caused increase in domestic production for use in domestic markets to start economic recovery. The improvement in the current account led to increased foreign exchange liquidity in the interbank market and was reflected in a build-up in the country’s foreign exchange reserves and thus appreciation in the Pak Rupee was seen. Further, from the macro linkage of increased foreign exchange liquidity led to a buildup in Net Foreign Assets component of Money Supply (M2) as well. Earlier in FY2018, more contribution in M2 growth was observed from increase in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) mainly due to government borrowing from SBP. This made pass-through inflationary pressure in FY2019. Thus, price stability became prime concern of the incumbent government. Most importantly, demand-side inflation was controlled by prudent government expenditure policy and restricting government for borrowing from the State Bank. Further, cracking cartels, ensuring smooth supply, tax relief measures, etc along with Ramazan package for providing essential items to general public at affordable prices, helped in slowing down the pace of inflation. The fiscal prudence and debt management resulted in making, primary balance in surplus during July-September FY2020 (0.6 percent of GDP). During Jul-Mar FY2021, it is still positive and recorded as 1.0 percent of GDP. The primary balance surplus is the necessary condition for fiscal and debt sustainability which had been met in present regime more specifically. The government also reprofiled its debt from short term to long term during last two years as a result of which refinancing risk of the debt portfolio has been reduced significantly. Most importantly, Pakistan entered the international capital market in April 2021 after a gap of over three years by successfully raising $ 2.5 billion showing confidence of international investors on Pakistan’s economy. Summarizing, FY2019 was an era of stabilization, while FY2020 was not only humanitarian crisis but economy suffered severe contraction. Recent economic growth 4
39. Growth and Investment of 3 .94 percent posting quicker significant economic recovery. It can be attributed to three things. (i) The government made better management in controlling the pandemic which kept businesses going and confidence high in FY2021. (ii) Fiscal Stimulus of Rs 1.24 trillion along with monetary support given in the pandemic. Further, committed focus of the government on certain targeted sectors like housing, agriculture, industry, exports, etc. (iii) Due to vaccination, quicker than expected global recovery. It is expected that in coming years the economy will have sustainable and inclusive growth. Government is making initiatives for utilizing bottom-up approach instead of trickle-down approach. Furthermore, the government measures regarding price stability will also help in improving the living of general public. Global Perspective The years 2020 and 2021 are especially marked by the outbreak and evolvement of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was in the first place a humanitarian crisis. According to the Corona Virus Resource Centre of the Johns Hopkins University by the end of May 2021 nearly 167.5 million people have been infected and nearly 3.5 million corona-related deaths were registered worldwide. Worldwide Governments took measures to protect peoples’ lives, involving complete or partial lockdowns of economic activities and restrictions on movements. But these necessary measures also brought economic pains. Measured by GDP growth, the world economic growth went into a severe recession, which manifested itself in almost all countries, among which are Pakistan’s main export destinations. Table - 1 shows that the world economy was estimated to have contracted with 3.3 percent in 2020. The contraction was very pronounced in the Euro Area and the UK, two of Pakistan’s main export areas. The contraction in the US was slightly above the world average, whereas growth in Middle East and Central Asia also significantly declined while China witnessed a growth recession as well. These recessions resulted in a decline of the volume of world trade with 8.5 percent. Table – 1.1: World GDP and Trade Volume Growth (%) 2019 2020 World GDP growth 2.8 -3.3 United States 2.2 -3.5 Euro Area 1.3 -6.6 United Kingdom 1.4 -9.9 China 5.8 2.3 Middle East and Central Asia 1.2 -2.9 World Trade Volume 0.9 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021 -8.5 2021 6.0 6.4 4.4 5.3 8.4 3.7 2022 4.4 3.5 3.8 5.1 5.6 3.8 8.4 6.5 At the same time as lockdowns were being proclaimed, governments used fiscal instruments to support peoples’ incomes and together with Central Banks’ Programmes were being designed to keep the economies afloat as much as possible. Since the beginning of 2021, massive vaccination Programmes were rolled out. By the end of May 2021 around 1.7 billion doses have been administered world-wide. These developments allowed to gradually lift restrictions on human interactions and together 5
40. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 with continuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies , they are expected to generate V-shaped economic recoveries. World GDP growth is expected to rebound by 6 percent in 2021. All Pakistan’s major export markets are expected to participate in this rebound, as well as the volume of world trade would increase. These developments have also impacted Pakistan’s economic performance, both directly and indirectly. Pakistan had to restrict human interactions in times when infections were rising both domestically and abroad. Furthermore, economic activity suffered from the economic recession in its major export countries which translated into a negative GDP growth (-0.47 percent) in FY2020. However, in FY2021, Pakistan has strongly come back on its economic front with a V-shaped recovery. Analyzing the high frequency indicators, such as the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), it is observed that CLI in Pakistan’s main trading partners like US, Euro Area, UK and China are improving which indicates better prospects for Pakistan’s exports earnings in coming months. There is significant relationship between CLI in Pakistan main trading partners and Monthly Economic Indicators (MEI) of Pakistan evident from (Fig – 1.5). Fig - 1.5: Relation between CLI and MEI Growth 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 102 MEI Growth (%) 100 98 96 94 92 CLIUK CLIUS CLIEA 2021M4 2021M3 2021M2 2021M1 2020M12 2020M11 2020M9 CLICH 2020M10 2020M8 2020M7 2020M6 2020M5 2020M4 2020M3 2020M2 2020M1 2019M12 2019M11 2019M9 2019M10 2019M8 2019M7 2019M6 2019M5 2019M4 2019M3 2019M2 90 2019M1 Composite Leading Index (CLI) 104 MEI (RHS) Box: From Macro imbalances to Stabilization to Economic Recovery The growth in FY2018 (5.5 percent) could not keep momentum due to macroeconomic imbalances i.e., trade deficit in goods and services remained historically high ($ 37 billion, 12 percent of GDP) while the fiscal deficit reached Rs 2,260 billion, (7 percent of GDP). The depletion of foreign reserves and highest gross financing need constrained the government to follow stabilization policies immediately afterwards. However, the government made considerable progress in mobilizing additional financing. Further, tough decisions of following market value-based exchange rate, increasing policy rate and energy price adjustments were also made. COVID-19 worsened the stumbling economic situation. In this backdrop government announced a fiscal stimulus package of Rs1.24 trillion while the State Bank of Pakistan provided liquidity support to households and businesses 6 GDP Performance 7 IMF Projection Target 6 GDP Growth 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
41. Growth and Investment to help them through the ensuing temporary phase of economic disruption . Sectoral Performance During FY2021, the government continued to support agriculture and industrial sectors. Government has formulated short-, medium- and long-term strategies to achieve inclusive sustainable economic growth and social prosperity: 6 • The government has launched flagship Ehsaas Programme in which total allocation was increased to Rs 208 billion in FY2021 from Rs 187 billion in FY2020. 1 • Prime Minister approved “Rabi Package” of Rs 5.4 billion and subsidy disbursement in Kharif season 2021 through Provinces on sharing basis (75:25) to reduce the input cost for the farmers. Minimum Support Price of wheat has been increased to Rs 1,800 per 40 kg from Rs 1,400 per 40 kg to encourage wheat cultivation. • Government allocated Rs 36 billion for payment of mark-up subsidy for financing for the construction and purchase of new houses over a period of 10 years. • Relief Package for Small & Medium Industries. • Government slashed Federal Excise Duty (FED) on cement from Rs 2/kg to Rs 1.5/kg w.e.f 1st July, 2020. • Export Finance Scheme (EFS) Rate is maintained at 3.0 percent and Long-Term Finance Facility (LTFF) has reduced from 6.0 to 5.0 percent in FY2021. Per project LTFF limit has been enhanced to Rs 5 billion from 2.5 billion. • The total subsidies under credit to exporters outstanding under both schemes (EFS and LTFF) is approximately Rs 660 billion. Regardless of strict fiscal constraints, the government followed timely and appropriate policy measures. Thus, better management and fiscal stimulus kept businesses going and confidence high in FY2021. V-Shaped economic recovery despite stabilization pursuit. The industrial sector showed a robust growth evident from LSM index while performance of important crops caused an overall improvement in the agriculture sector as well. Buoyancy in the commodity-producing sector, in turn, trickled down to the services sector, with significant improvement in wholesale and retail trade. 5 Industry Services GDP Growth 4 3 2 0 -1 -2 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 LSM Index Performance 155 LSMI 10 LSMI Growth 8 150 6 4 145 2 0 140 -2 -4 135 -6 130 -8 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Primary Balance July-March (Rs. Billion) 452 194 (308) FY 2018 (463) FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Current Account Balance Jul-Apr ($ Billion) 773 Fiscal performance remained prudent due to austerity measures supported by controlling the non interest expenditures. Thus, expenditure under defense as well as running of civil govt were declined which caused Primary Balance Surplus (Rs 452 billons; 1.0 % of GDP) during July–March FY 2021 Significant improvement in Current Account Balance ($773 million) during July–April FY 2021 helped in maintaining foreign reserve above threshold level, due to which stable exchange rate persists. Agriculture (4,657) (11,449) (15,293) FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 7
42. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Pakistan Economic Performance FY2021 Effective policy measures taken by the government to contain the virus along with fiscal stimulus and monetary measures by the State Bank of Pakistan in FY2020 helped to kickstart the economy in the pandemic when severe economic depression was prevailing around the globe . Further, relief provision to vulnerable segments through Ehsaas Cash Emergency Programme helped in increase in domestic production for domestic use when exports were not performing well due to worldwide lockdown. Significant growth in remittances helped in stabilizing Pakistan’s external account. In second half of current fiscal year, with global recovery, exports also started playing the role in improving current account balance. For July-April FY2021, current account remained in surplus $ 773 million ($ 4.7 billion deficit last year) (Fig – 1.6 A) implying a significant improvement in Saving-Investment Gap which in turn helped in building foreign exchange reserves. Thus, the exchange rate not only remained stable but nine percent appreciation in the Pak Rupee was observed in April 30, 2021 (1$ = Rs 153.45) compared to June 30, 2020 (1$ = Rs 168.06). Further improvement in Saving – Investment gap translated into improvement in National and Domestic Saving (Fig–1.6 B). Fig - 1.6 A: Saving - Investment Gap ($ Billion) 5 Fig - 1.6 B: National & Domestic Saving (Rs Trillion) 8 7 0 National Saving Domestic Saving 6 -5 5 4 -10 3 -15 2 -20 -1 1 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 The government is also making efforts for effective mobilization of national savings that will allow higher levels of investment in future. Aggregate Demand Analysis For aggregate demand analysis, Nominal GDP (MP) i.e., GDP(MP) at current prices is used. For FY2021, GDP at current market prices stands at Rs 47,709 billion showing a growth of 14.8 percent over last year (Rs 41,556 billion). In dollar term, it remained $ 299 billion higher than GDP observed in FY 2019 ($ 263 billion) due to stabilization. Gross National Income (GNI) is also used for measuring and tracking a nation's wealth which is calculated by adding Net Factor Income from abroad (NFI) to GDP (MP). In FY2021, Real GNI (GNI at basic prices of 2005-06) posted a growth of 7.1 percent, it is the highest since FY2004 (Fig – 1.7). 8
43. Growth and Investment Fig - 1 .7:Peformance of Economy GDP (Real ) Growth Rate GNI (Real) Growth Rate 8 6 4 2 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 -2 2001-02 0 2000-01 Growth Rate (%) 10 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics For FY2021, there was 17 percent growth in GNI at current prices as NFI posted growth of 39 percent on account of 28 percent growth in Workers Remittances as per National Accounts. In Pakistan, due to non-availability of National Accounts on Expenditures approach, Private Consumption is estimated on residual basis. Thus, Private Consumption has significantly large share in GDP. This large share implies that Pakistan’s economy is consumption driven economy like other developing economies. Better consumer confidence can influence increase in domestic production by increasing demand for durables. Table 1.2: Composition of Aggregate Demand FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 As percent of GDP (MP) Private Consumption 82.8 79.3 80.7 Public Consumption 11.7 12.8 12.4 Total Consumption [C] 94.5 92.1 93.1 Gross Fixed Investment 14.0 13.7 13.6 Private Investment 10.5 10.6 9.8 Public Investment 3.5 3.2 3.8 Changes in Stock 1.6 1.6 1.6 Total Investment [I] 15.6 15.3 15.2 Exports (Goods & Services) [X] 10.1 10 9.9 Imports (Goods & Services) [M] 20.3 17.4 18.2 Net Exports [X-M] -10.2 -7.4 -8.3 Aggregate Demand [C + I + X] 120.3 117.4 118.2 Domestic Demand [C + I] 110.2 107.4 108.3 GDP (MP) 100 100 100 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 Growth Rates (%) 11.1 4.4 16.8 9.9 19.3 11.4 10.9 6.3 16.1 (1.9) 6.7 13.8 9.2 10.3 6.6 (24.4) (3.7) 38.1 10.0 9.1 14.8 (0.8) 7.0 13.9 23.7 8.5 13.6 11.0 (6.0) 20.1 0.8 (20.4) 28.9 10.2 6.6 15.6 9.1 6.4 15.8 10.0 9.1 14.8 Point Contribution 9.1 3.7 13.4 1.2 2.3 1.4 10.3 6.0 14.8 (0.3) 0.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 (1.3) (0.1) 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 (0.1) 1.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 1.4 2.2 (1.2) 3.5 (0.1) 2.1 (2.1) 12.2 7.9 18.3 10.1 7.0 16.9 10.0 9.1 14.8 From Table–1.2, it can be seen that in FY2019, increase in borrowing costs and depreciation of Pakistani Rupee has not alter the Private Consumption patterns except in FY2020, where its growth was recorded 4.4 percent while its share in GDP was 79.3 percent. In FY2021, growth in Private Consumption remained 16.8 percent significantly contributing in GDP growth on account of higher growth in workers remittances and cash transfer to low segment of society through Ehsaas Cash Emergency Programme. 9
44. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Likewise , growth in the Public Consumption increased in both FY2020 and FY2021 because of COVID-19 related expenditures which started in FY2020 and remained continue in FY2021. However, in FY2021, growth in the Public Consumption remained 11.4 percent lower than 19.3 percent recorded last year mainly due to squeezing unnecessary expenditures as well as decrease in interest payments. Investment in Pakistan is constrained by many factors like low saving rate, less saving and investment opportunities, lack of financial literacy and access to capital and much of the savings are parked in real estate and abroad. The government is taking measures to increase both savings and investment to augment the employment generating ability of the economy as well as raise resource availability for investment. In this regards Kamyab Jawan Scheme, Rozgar scheme, National SME Policy Action Plan 2020, Export Finance Schemes and Construction Package are some notable measures taken by the government which will accelerate investment in coming years as well. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) posted a growth of 13.8 percent in FY2021 and remained 13.6 percent of GDP. Private and Public including General Government being two components of GFCF posted a growth of 6.6 percent and 38.1 percent respectively. For Private GFCF, 6.6 percent additional investment was observed, however, spare capacity was already available due to lockdown and slow economic activities happened in FY2020. Further, significant growth in Public including General Government GFCF supplemented in acceleration in economic activities for V-Shaped recovery. During FY2021, a significant increase in Private GFCF was seen in Agriculture (17 percent) on account of increase in imported agriculture machinery and increase in value of stock in the livestock sub-sector. The other sectors in Private GFCF which posted growth were Small Scale including Slaughtering (21 percent), Wholesale and Retail Trade (16 percent), Housing Services (12 percent) and Other Private Service (12 percent). However, Private GFCF in Mining and Quarrying declined by 16 percent due to conservative reporting of expenditure by companies. The other significant decrease in Private GFCF was observed in Electricity Generation & Distribution and Gas Distribution which declined by 67 percent because of lower expenditure reported by K-Electric and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Due to decrease in imported construction machinery, Private GFCF in construction industry also declined by 24 percent compared to last year. Private GFCF in Transport & Communication industry also posted a decline of 16 percent due to lower expenditure on this account by mobile phone companies. In context of 38.1 percent growth in Public including General Government sector, it is mentionable that Public Sector GFCF during FY2021 was estimated at Rs 435.2 billion against Rs 314.8 billion during last year. The major industries with positive changes were Electricity Generation & Distribution and Gas Distribution showing 8 percent growth (Rs 246.6 vs. 228.8 billion due to WAPDA and companies being more proactive), Manufacturing (Rs 32.3 vs. 8.6 billion mainly owing to Pak Arab Refinery), Construction with 18 percent growth (Rs 4.9 vs. 4.2 billion due to Capital Development Authority and Lahore Development Authority taking up bigger infrastructure projects) and Transport & Communication with 230 percent growth (Rs 126.4 vs. 38.4 billion due to increase 10
45. Growth and Investment spending on Port Qasim Authority , Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority, National Highway Authority and National Logistics Cell) whereas those with negative changes are Mining & Quarrying posting decline of 34 percent (Rs 16.6 vs. 25.1 billion due to Oil and Gas Development Company Limited not being able to increase its operations) and Finance & Insurance with decline of 15 percent (Rs 8.1 vs. 9.4 billion due to Nationalized Banks). It is also mentionable that estimates of GFCF in the General Government sector were based on budgetary data of federal, provincial and districts governments. The budgeted data is used in the first year which is subject to changes on the basis of actual and reconciled expenditure by various tiers of government in subsequent year. Thus, overall provisional GFCF in general government services increased by 38.1 percent on account of GFCF related expenditure for the Federal Government posted growth of 16 percent, while Provincial Governments posted growth of 47 percent with Punjab (51 percent, increased from Rs 146.1 to 221.0 billion), Sindh (73 percent, increased from Rs 131.8 to 227.6 billion), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (28 percent, increased from Rs 143.9 to 183.8 billion) and Balochistan (36 percent, increased from Rs 106.2 to 144.5 billion). Moreover, expenditure on GFCF incurred by District Governments also increased by 84.1 percent. Specifically, provisional GFCF by Tehsil Municipal Administration (TMAs) has been estimated at Rs 111.2 billion during FY2021 compared to Rs 49.4 billion, last year posting growth of almost 125 percent. In aggregate demand, historically contribution of Net Exports usually remained negative. For FY2021, in National Accounts, Exports of Goods and Services posted a growth of 13.6 percent while Imports of Goods and Services posted growth of 20.1 percent. However, in FY2021, higher imports of capital and raw materials helped in growth of exports and domestic economic recovery. Contemporary global trade relies heavily on the formation of global values chains and successful countries have liberalized their imports to be able to become part of these chains. Pakistan has traditionally followed a high import tariff regime, consequently has not been able to integrate with the global as well as regional value chains and therefore could not achieve its true export potential. In 2019, National Tariff Policy was announced by the Government having an important pillar of reducing input tariffs for local and exporting industries. Under this policy during FY2021, Additional Customs Duties were eliminated on 1622 tariff lines, Customs duty was rationalized on 131 tariff lines, regulatory duty was reduced on hot rolled coil in iron and steel industry and more regulatory duties were removed under the Prime Minister’s anti-smuggling drive. These reforms intended to improve availability of raw materials at a cheaper cost so that final produced goods can be produced at competitive rates and hence are better able to compete in international market for exports. As a result of this policy, during July-April FY2021, under the reformed tariff, import of raw materials registered 23-24 percent growth which has helped up lift Pakistan’s exports. Some examples of the imported products that showed increase in quantity and value include cotton, iron & steel, chemicals, rubber, copper, plastics, jute, machinery, tools, tanning & dying extracts, aluminum and others. Over the year a strong correlation has been observed between increase in imports, LSM and economic growth, therefore the National Tariff Policy has been one of the key drivers of the economic growth for the current fiscal year. Further, for product diversification in the export basket, the 11
46. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 government has taken steps to facilitate the private sector . One apparent result is that value added exports have risen including clothing, home textiles and apparel, prepared food stuffs, chemicals, surgical instruments, manufactured goods, iron and steel, oil seeds, machinery, tractors, rubber, paper and paperboard, glassware, wood articles, jewelry, ceramics and others. On the other hand, raw or intermediate exports have fallen e.g., cotton yarn, raw leather etc. This is an indication that export oriented sectors are performing decent activity and hence showing good numbers. Further government is also taking measures in exploring more destinations for exports base. Based on available data, it has been found that during July–March FY2021, significant growth in exports has been observed in Australia (26 percent), Russia (27 percent), Denmark (25 percent), Netherlands (12 percent), Belgium (5 percent) and Portugal (4 percent). Some other significant measures of the government in context of increasing exports are:  Announcement and implementation of the National Tariff Policy.  Development on the trade facilitation efforts including implementation of WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation, launching of National Single Window, operationalization of TIR carnet for seamless transport etc. The objective of the TIR Convention is to facilitate international transit through a simplified Customs transit procedure and an international guarantee system.  Keeping a close liaison with businessmen and resolving their issues  The trade and investment officers abroad have been actively engaging with importers to facilitate Pakistan’s exports.  Anti-smuggling crack down, tariff rationalization and rehabilitation efforts of people living in the western border areas of Pakistan.  Launching of the first ever E-Commerce Policy which has recently helped Pakistan to become part of the Amazon suppliers list E-commerce growth in Pakistan has been rapid in the last few years especially during the pandemic. Recently, Pakistan has been added by Amazon to its seller’s list which essentially means that local Pakistani sellers can now list and use Amazon’s platform to sell globally. Thus, Pakistan has now joined the international market which will enhance investment and produce employment opportunities. Preferential trade agreements with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan along with the negotiation of agreements on transit trade with Afghanistan are underway to facilitate physical access to those markets. It is also mentionable that enforcement of the China Pakistan FTA, Retention of the EU-GSP plus status and economic recovery in Pakistan’s main trading partners will significantly increase value-added exports in coming years as well. Sectoral Growth Analysis – Production Side Pakistan’s economy is now on course towards strong and sustained recovery mainly due to utilization of unused capacities present due to the pandemic which resulted in lockdown and depressed demand and adequate government policies to support growth. 12
47. Growth and Investment On the basis of rebound in almost all sectors , provisional GDP growth rate is estimated at 3.9 percent on account of 2.8 percent growth in Agriculture, 3.6 in Industrial sector and 4.4 percent growth in Services sector during FY 2021. Sectoral Point contribution is given below (Table-1.3): Table 1.3: Sectoral Point Contribution at Constant Prices 2005-06 A. Agriculture B. Industry Commodity Producing Sector (A+B) C. Services Sector GDP (GVA) FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 As percent of GDP (MP) Growth Rates (%) Point Contribution 18.7 19.9 38.6 19.4 19.2 38.6 19.2 19.1 38.3 0.6 (1.6) (0.5) 3.3 (3.8) (0.3) 2.8 3.6 3.2 0.1 (0.3) (0.2) 0.6 (0.7) (0.1) 0.5 0.7 1.2 61.4 100 61.4 100 61.7 100 3.8 2.1 (0.6) (0.5) 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.1 (0.4) (0.5) 2.7 3.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Agricultural Sector: The agriculture sector posted growth of overall 2.8 percent mainly due to 2.5 percent growth in Crops and 3.1 percent growth in Livestock. The growth in crops were recorded on account of 4.7 percent growth in Important Crops and 1.4 percent growth in Other Crops. Better performance of Agriculture is attributed to better weather and improved production system spurred by the Prime Minister’s Agriculture Package and increase in minimum support prices of wheat and sugarcane. Important Crops has share of 70.2 percent share in Crops Value Addition. In which, historically highest wheat production of 27.3 million tones was reported thus, posting growth of 8.1 percent (25.1 million tonnes last year). Likewise, Rice, Sugarcane and Maize also posted significant growth of 13.6, 22.0 and 7.4 percent respectively. Rice production increased to 8.4 million tonnes from 7.4 million tonnes while production of Sugarcane remained 81.0 million tonnes (66.4 million tonnes, last year) and that of Maize increased from 7.9 million tonnes to 8.5 million tonnes. The production of cotton decreased to 7.1 million bales (9.1 million bales last year) posting a decline of 22.8 percent mainly due to decrease in area sown (2.1 million hectares in FY2021) which is almost 17.4 percent less than last year (2.5 million hectares). One reason was Locust attack while area cultivation under sugarcane has been increased to 1.2 million hectare (1.0 million hectares last year) showing growth of 12.1 percent. This implies that farmers are switching towards sugarcane production. The decline in cotton crop also reduced value added in Cotton Ginning by 15.6 percent. With present performance of important crops, share of wheat in GDP is 1.8 percent and that of rice is 0.7 percent while share of sugarcane, cotton and maize stood at 0.6 percent each in GDP. Other crops posted growth of 1.4 percent mainly due to 4.2 percent growth in vegetables, 2.0 percent growth in fruits and 5.5 percent growth in production of fodder having share 8.9, 9.3 and 6.7 percent respectively in crops. There was 14 percent decline in pulses which has 1.4 percent share in Crops. Thus, Crops Sector posted a growth of 2.5 percent. 13
48. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Livestock having 60 percent share in agriculture is very important in determining the overall outcome . Within Livestock Poultry and Poultry Products posted growth of 12.8 percent. Likewise, other components of livestock also have shown positive growth, however, due to 8.9 percent increase in intermediate consumption, growth in livestock remained 3.1 percent in FY2021. The other components of agriculture, forestry and fishing posted growth of 1.4 and 0.7 percent respectively. Industrial Sector: Industrial sector performance is more dependent on Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) as it holds 51 percent share in Industry whereas LSM is reflected by Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) data. Since July 2020, QIM was posting significant year on year (YoY) growth (Fig – 1.8). Thus, its growth is built on momentum by capacity utilization, monetary incentives in the form of low interest rate and other facilitations. Fig - 1.8: LSM YoY Growth (%) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 Feb-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Sep-19 Aug-19 Jul-19 Jun-19 May-19 Apr-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Jan-19 Apr-20, -41.56 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics In March and April last year, the international and domestic spread of the COVID-19 virus had depressed industrial activity, thus QIM index declined MoM by 32.7 percent in March 2020 while in April 2020, it reached to lowest level of 85.6 showing a YoY decline of 41.6 percent. In National Accounts, growth of QIM has registered a 9.3 percent growth for FY2021 on the standard methodology of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Major contributors to this growth are Textile (5.9 percent), Food Beverage & Tobacco (11.7 percent), Petroleum products (12.7 percent), Pharmaceuticals (12.6 percent), Chemicals (11.7 percent), Non-Metallic Mineral Products (24.3 percent), Automobiles (23.4 percent) and Fertilizer (5.7 percent). In case of Small Scale, the government has provided Rs 6.9 billion to support the SMEs. Further, Prime Minister approved National SME Policy Action Plan 2020 to provide much needed support to SMEs. The plan focuses on access to finance, business development services, skills & human resource, technology, market access, infrastructure and entrepreneurship. These efforts made Small Scale sector to grow by 8.3 percent during FY2021. Slaughtering also posted growth of 3.9 percent. 14
49. Growth and Investment Thus , growth in Manufacturing was recorded 8.7 percent on account of growth in LSM, SMEs and Slaughtering. The other sector which has shown significant growth was Construction, which recorded a growth of 8.3 percent due to increase in general government spending (36 percent). Further the contribution of this sector is derived from investment of different construction activities. Mining and Quarrying posted a decline of 6.5 percent due to decline in production of gas and crude oil by 4.7 and 6.7 percent respectively. Likewise, Electricity and Gas sub sector shown a negative growth of 23 percent, mainly due to decline in subsidy and increase in intermediate consumption of WAPDA and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Services Sector: In FY2021, share of Services sector in GDP reached to 62 percent and posted a growth of 4.4 percent. Sub-sectors of Services with respective shares in Services and GDP are given below: Table 1.4: Components of Services 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 3. Finance & Insurance 4. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 5. General Government Services 6. Other Private Services Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Share in Services 30.5 19.7 6.0 11.3 13.3 19.1 Share in GDP 18.82 12.18 3.72 6.97 8.21 11.77 Wholesale & Retail Trade is dependent on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports. The growth in trade value added relating to agriculture, manufacturing and imports stands at 3.8, 8.2 and 16.1 percent respectively. Based on these, the growth of Wholesale & Retail Trade was recorded at 8.4 percent for FY2021. In Transport, Storage and Communication, Railways, Water Transport, Air Transport and Pipeline Transport constitute 11 percent share in it. In FY2021, there was almost 24 percent decline as the value recorded at Rs 116.9 billion (Rs 152.8 billion last year) mainly due to lockdown and restriction on travel. Likewise, Communication which includes Postal system including courier services and telecommunication activities having approximately 16 percent share in Transport, Storage and Communication posted a decline of 21.4 percent. However, Road Transport which has 74 percent share posted a growth of 8.4 percent while Storage which has 3 percent share posted 8.7 percent growth during FY2021. Due to these factors, Transport, Storage and Communication posted a decline of 0.6 percent. During FY2021, Finance and insurance sector showed an overall increase of 7.8 percent due to increase in deposits, loans and insurance. Last Year, in March 2020, Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) growth of Assets was 0.7 percent while in Dec 2020, the YoY growth remained 14.2 percent. Regarding, Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings), its data is survey based. Thus, keeping the past trend, constant growth rate of almost 4.0 percent was estimated while 15
50. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 the provisional growth in General Government Services based on budgeted data stands at 2 .2 percent. Regarding Other Private Services, it includes diverse economic activities scattered over many industries. However, it can be categorized into Computer Related Activities, Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities, Education, Health, Recreation, Cultural & Sports Activities and Miscellaneous whereas Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities has almost 61 percent share in Other Private Services. For FY2021, growth in Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities remained 5.6 percent while due to lockdown measures and closing of recreational places, hotels, etc. a negative growth of 21 percent was observed in Recreation, Cultural and Sports Activities (its share is 0.05 percent in Other Private Services). Thus, provisional growth of Other Private Services for FY2021 remained 4.6 percent. Way Forward The Economy has fairly recovered from a dip of last year due to COVID-19 situation. The economic recovery cannot be completely attributed to the holdup of economic activities, the government timely and appropriate policies especially fiscal stimulus also helped in containing the pandemic and recovering economic activities. Further, monetary and financial measures by SBP accelerated the speed of recovery. The government will continue to take the necessary measures for achieving a higher, sustainable and inclusive growth rate. Thus, increased size of PSDP, better containment of pandemic along with roll-out of vaccination and continuation of Ehsaas Programme will keep momentum of the economic growth. Some other initiatives like new health and nutrition programme (Ehsaas Nashonuma) have been rolled out in timely manner and the expansion of the shock-oriented safety net (Ehsaas Tahafuz) is planned to be extended to other parts of the country in next phase. Additional resources have been allocated for the ‘National Poverty Graduation Initiative’. Likewise, another programme “Koye Bhooka Na Soye” also been designed to uplift low segment of society which will in turn bring prosperity to the society. Furthermore, Agriculture and Industrial Packages will not only bring growth in respective sectors but also give boost to the Wholesale and Retail Trade sub-sectors and others sectors in services. Likewise, Special lending schemes for housing, SMEs and agriculture will help financial sector growth. Moreover, reopening of economies and government measures to expand trade will help in strengthening external sector of the economy as well. 16
51. Chapter 2 Agriculture Agricultural sector is indispensable to the country ’s economic growth, food security, employment generation and poverty alleviation particularly, at the rural level. It contributes 19.2 percent to the GDP and provides employment to around 38.5 percent of the labour force. More than 65-70 percent of the population depends on agriculture for its livelihood. Agricultural growth rate has been constrained by shrinking arable land, climate change, water shortages, and large-scale population and labour shift from rural to urban areas. Increasing agricultural productivity, therefore, requires adoption of new approaches. With strong forward and backward linkages with the secondary (industrial) and tertiary (services) sectors, it can play a pivotal role to spur economic growth. However, this sector has remained prone to several challenges like climate change, variance in temperature, water shortage, and changes in pattern of precipitation along with increase in input prices. The government is closely monitoring key crops and devising policies/planning interventions to ensure uninterrupted supply of basic food items at affordable prices in the country. The primary goal of the government is to enhance financial inclusion in the agriculture sector to boost productivity and exports, thereby enabling a rural development-driven economic growth. Realising the importance of agriculture, the government is also focusing on proagriculture set of policies to tap maximum benefits by introducing the agri-input regime to increase yields of major rabi and kharif crops. The Prime Minister has approved “Agriculture Transformation Plan” with the objective to enhance national agricultural output and livelihood of farmers. Box Item-I: Agriculture Transformation Plan Ministry of National Food Security and Research presented an action plan before Prime Minister for transformation of agriculture sector in the country. Under this plan provinces will work on re-tweaking of machinery given under National Agriculture Emergency Projects (NAEP) on wheat, rice, sugarcane, and oilseeds for maximum distribution of implements among farming community on following aspect: • • • • • • Design of intervention and pre-qualification mechanism Additional implements Subsidy mechanism to be aligned with Kissan Card Service providers to be registered Unique implement ID Farmers share
52. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 This approved action plan with specific timeline for interventions , yield gaps and particular issues of the sector to be resolved through first and second generation. These interventions comprise of action to be taken by Federal and Provincial Governments. The details are as under: First Generation Interventions • • • • • • • • Bridging the yield gap Seed sector reforms Inputs: digital subsidy mechanism Mechanization Water efficiency Revamping extension services Access to credit Post harvest storage Restructuring research institutes Target sectors Cotton revival Olive deepening Genetic improvement in livestock Fisheries • • • • Second Generation Interventions • • • • • Horizontal expansion International Cooperation Value Chain Development Clusters (Fruit & Vegetables) Perishable produce • • • • • Crop Zoning Land Consolidation Organic farming Adaption and self-discovery Sub-montane agriculture Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research Agriculture Performance during 2020-21 Pakistan has two cropping seasons. “Kharif”, the first sowing season, which starts from April to June and is harvested from October to December. This season crop cycle mainly consists of rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, moong, mash, bajra and jowar. "Rabi", being the second season, sowing begins from October to December and is harvested from April to May. It comprises mainly of wheat, gram, lentil (masoor), tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard. The agriculture sector’s performance during 2020-21 broadly stands encouraging as it grows by 2.77 percent against the target of 2.8 percent. The growth of important crops (wheat, rice, sugarcane, maize and cotton) during the year is 4.65 percent. The production of major Kharif crops 2020, such as sugarcane, maize and rice indicated considerable improvement compared to last year and surpassed the production targets. The production of sugarcane increased by 22.0 percent to 81.009 million tonnes from 66.380 million tonnes, rice by 13.6 percent to 8.419 million tonnes from 7.414 million tonnes and maize by 7.4 percent to 8.465 million tonnes from 7.883 million tonnes. However, the cotton crop suffered mainly due to decline in area sown, heavy monsoon rains and pest attacks. The cotton production reduced by 22.8 percent, to 7.064 million bales from 9.148 million bales last year. Wheat, the most important crop of “Rabi”, showed a growth of 8.1 percent and reached record high production level of 27.293 million tonnes compared to 25.248 million tonnes last year. The wheat cultivation area increased to 9.178 million hectares prompted by record domestic prices and official programmes promoting wheat production. For the Rabi crops 2020-21, the government provided a comprehensive 18
53. Agriculture “Rabi Package” comprising of subsidies on fertilizer, fungicides and weedicides, together with an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of wheat to Rs 1,800 per 40 Kg. Other crops, having a share of 11.69 percent in agriculture value addition and 2.24 percent in GDP, showed growth of 1.41 percent because of increase in production of fodder, vegetables and fruits. Cotton ginning declined by 15.58 percent due to fall in production of cotton crop. The overall crops sector, having a share of 35.81 percent in agriculture value addition and 6.87 percent in GDP witnessed a growth of 2.47 percent due to increase in growth of important crops by 4.65 percent. This was largely due to sufficient availability of agricultural inputs (water, subsidized fertilizers, certified seeds, pesticides and agriculture credit). Livestock having a share of 60.07 percent in agriculture and 11.53 percent in GDP achieved a growth of 3.06 percent. The fishing sector, with a share of 2.01 percent in agriculture value addition and 0.39 percent in GDP, grew by 0.73 percent, while forestry sector having share of 2.10 percent in agriculture and 0.40 percent in GDP grew by 1.42 percent. (Table 2.1) Table 2.1: Agriculture Growth (Base=2005-06) Sector FY2015 FY2016 Agriculture 2.13 0.15 1.Crops (i+ii+iii) 0.16 -5.27 i) Important Crops -1.62 -5.86 ii) Other Crops 2.51 0.40 iii) Cotton Ginning 7.24 -22.12 2.Livestock 3.99 3.36 3.Forestry -12.45 14.31 4.Fishing 5.75 3.25 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics FY2017 2.18 1.22 2.60 -2.51 5.58 2.99 -2.33 1.23 FY2018 4.00 4.69 3.56 6.26 8.80 3.70 2.58 1.62 FY2019 0.56 -4.96 -7.69 2.60 -12.74 3.82 7.28 0.80 (%) FY2020 FY2021 P 3.31 2.77 5.54 2.47 5.24 4.65 8.08 1.41 -4.82 -15.58 2.10 3.06 3.60 1.42 0.60 0.73 Water availability during Kharif 2020 remained at 65.1 million acre feet (MAF) showing a slight decrease of 0.2 percent compared to 65.2 MAF of Kharif 2019. Rabi season 202021 received 31.2 MAF, showing an increase of 6.9 percent over Rabi 2019-20. (Table 2.2). Table 2.2: Actual Surface Water Availability Period Kharif Average system usage 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Source: Indus River System Authority Rabi 67.1 60.4 57.7 65.5 69.3 65.5 71.4 70.0 59.6 65.2 65.1 Total 36.4 29.4 31.9 32.5 33.1 32.9 29.7 24.2 24.8 29.2 31.2 103.5 89.8 89.6 98.0 102.4 98.4 101.1 94.2 84.4 94.4 96.3 (Million Acre Feet) % age increase/decrease over the average system usage (103.5 MAF) -13.2 -13.4 -5.3 -1.1 -4.9 -2.3 -9.0 -18.5 -8.8 -7.0 19
54. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 I . Crop Situation The important crops contribute 22.49 percent to value addition in agriculture sector and 4.32 percent to GDP. Other crops account for 11.69 percent in value addition of agriculture sector and 2.24 percent in GDP. The production of important crops is given in Table 2.3. Table 2.3: Production of Important Crops Year Cotton Sugarcane (000 bales) 2014-15 13,960 62,826 2015-16 9,917 65,482 (-29.0) (4.2) 2016-17 10,671 75,482 (7.6) (15.3) 2017-18 11,946 83,333 (11.9) (10.4) 2018-19 9,861 67,174 (-17.5) (-19.4) 2019-20 9,148 66,380 (-7.2) (-1.2) 2020-21(P) 7,064 81,009 (-22.8) (22.0) P: Provisional Note: Figures in parentheses are growth/decline rates Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Rice 7,003 6,801 (-2.9) 6,849 (0.7) 7,450 (8.8) 7,202 (-3.3) 7,414 (2.9) 8,419 (13.6) Maize 4,937 5,271 (6.8) 6,134 (16.4) 5,902 (-3.8) 6,826 (15.7) 7,883 (15.5) 8,465 (7.4) (000 Tonnes) Wheat 25,086 25,633 (2.2) 26,674 (4.1) 25,076 (-6.0) 24,349 (-2.9) 25,248 (3.7) 27,293 (8.1) a) Important Crops i) Cotton Cotton crop stands vital in agriculture as Fig-2.1: Cotton Production (000 bales) well as textile sector of the economy. It 11946 contributes around 0.6 percent to GDP 12000 and 3.1 percent of the value added in 10671 11000 agriculture. Cotton crop faces multiple 9861 challenges and competes with other crops 10000 9148 especially sugarcane. International prices 9000 also play a role. Being an export oriented 8000 raw material of textile industries, 7064 7000 maintaining prices at levels competitive with the international market while 6000 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 ensuring due profitability of growers has (P) been a great challenge for policy makers. During 2020-21, the crop was cultivated on 2,079 thousand hectares, reflecting a contraction of 17.4 percent as compared to last year’s sown area of 2,517 thousand hectares. Production declined by 22.8 percent to 7.064 million bales against production of 9.148 million bales last year (Table 2.4 and Figure 2.1). Declining cultivated area has 20
55. Agriculture reduced production as the crop has lost its competitiveness relative to other major crops , in particular sugarcane. Table 2.4: Area, Production and Yield of Cotton Year Area Production (000 Hectare) % Change (000 Bales) % Change 2016-17 2,489 2017-18 2,700 2018-19 2,373 2019-20 2,517 2020-21(P) 2,079 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 8.5 -12.1 6.1 -17.4 10,671 11,946 9,861 9,148 7,064 Yield (Kgs/Hec) % Change 11.9 -17.5 -7.2 -22.8 729 753 707 618 578 3.3 -6.1 -12.6 -6.5 Box Item-II : Cotton Crop: Challenges and Way Forward Pakistan, a major producer of cotton (ranked 5th, ICAC), is facing a significant decline in major varieties of cotton crop production due to multiple challenges. Acreage of cotton crop is shrinking due to non-profitability of the crop as compared to maize, paddy and sugarcane. Other factors contributing to the decline are i) biotic stresses of white fly and pink bollworm, ii) abiotic stresses like climate change, heat stresses and extreme rainfalls iii) poor agricultural practices and unnecessary use of pesticides. A high cost of inputs including fertilizers, pesticides and seeds is another area of concern. There is lack of early generation seed and research progression is inadequate for development of new varieties which can withstand pests, diseases, and climatic stresses. Research experts suggest that cotton zoning is indispensable to revive the crop. Such zoning coupled with fixation of minimum indicative or intervention price, timely issuance of subsidies and improved extension services for awareness of farmers are essential for revival of cotton production. A ray of hope in this regard is a fact that government institutions are gearing up to boost production of the strategic crop which involves livelihood of millions of farmers and related industries. To start with, M/o NFS&R has initiated an “Agriculture Transformation Plan” including amending relevant laws to fast track release of new cotton varieties with novel technologies. Track and traceability of quality certified seed to farmers has also been initiated so that the impact of interventions can translate at farm level. Work is also in progress to weeding out inactive companies involved in cotton seed business and action against sale of substandard seeds is being taken. Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, established for developing, improving, growing and marketing of cotton, may also be reinstated. Emphasis is also being laid on use of Pink Bollworm (PB) ropes for biological control of cotton pests. The government is also exploring avenues for growing cotton in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where pest pressure is low and cotton yields are reportedly higher than traditional areas of Punjab and Sindh. Moreover, organic cotton farming has also been started in Balochistan. All efforts are being made for timely issuance of subsidy for pesticides, seeds and fertilizers through Kissan cards. For Kharif 2021, certified cotton seed availability is 43,525 MT, highest in the past four years. Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research 21
56. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 ii ) Sugarcane Sugarcane is a high value cash crop of Fig 2.2: Sugarcane Production (000 Tonnes) Pakistan and is of great significance for 83333 84000 sugar related industries, second largest 81009 agro-industry sector after textile. Its 80000 production accounts for 3.4 percent in 75482 76000 agriculture’s value addition and 0.7 percent in GDP. During 2020-21, the crop was 72000 cultivated on 1,165 thousand hectares, an 67174 66380 68000 increase of 12.0 percent compared to last 64000 year’s sown area of 1,040 thousand hectares. Production increased by 22.0 60000 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (P) percent to 81.009 million tonnes against 66.380 million last year. The crop experienced a significant increase in area under cultivation and yield. It was mainly due to favourable weather conditions, better management, timely availability of quality inputs and higher economic returns. The area, production and yield of sugarcane during the last five years are given in Table 2.5 and Figure 2.2. Table 2.5: Area, Production and Yield of Sugarcane Year Area Production (000 % Change (000 % Change Hectare) Tonnes) 2016-17 1,218 2017-18 1,342 2018-19 1,102 2019-20 1,040 2020-21 (P) 1,165 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 10.2 -17.9 -5.6 12.0 75,482 83,333 67,174 66,380 81,009 10.4 -19.4 -1.2 22.0 Yield (Kgs/Hec.) % Change 61,972 62,096 60,956 63,827 69,536 0.2 -1.8 4.7 8.9 iii) Rice Rice is an important food as well as cash Fig 2.3: Rice Production (000 Tonnes) crop. It is the second main staple food crop after wheat and the second major 8419 8500 exportable commodity after cotton. It contributes 3.5 percent of value added in 8000 agriculture and 0.7 percent in GDP. Rice 7450 7414 production comprises of basmati (fine) 7500 7202 and coarse types. During the last few 7000 6849 years, production of coarse types is increasing. During 2020-21, the crop was 6500 cultivated on 3,335 thousand hectares, 6000 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (P) reflecting an increase 9.9 percent as compared to last year’s sown area of 3,034 thousand hectares. The current year witnessed a record production growth of 13.6 percent to 8.419 million tonnes against 7.414 million tonnes last year. This was 22
57. Agriculture essentially due to rising unit prices and higher demand for the country ’s rice in export markets. The area, production and yield of rice during the last five years are shown in Table 2.6 and Figure 2.3. Table 2.6: Area, Production and Yield of Rice Year Area Production (000 % Change (000 % Change Hectare) Tonnes) 2016-17 2,724 6,849 2017-18 2,901 6.5 7,450 8.8 2018-19 2,810 -3.1 7,202 -3.3 2019-20 3,034 8.0 7,414 2.9 2020-21(P) 3,335 9.9 8,419 13.6 Yield (Kgs/Hec.) % Change 2,514 2,568 2,563 2,444 2,524 2.1 -0.2 -4.6 3.3 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics iv) Wheat Wheat is Pakistan’s main staple crop and, Fig 2.4: Wheat Production (000 Tonnes) therefore, essential for the food security of 27293 the country. It accounts for 9.2 percent of 27000 26674 the value added in agriculture and 1.8 percent of the GDP. Self-sufficiency in wheat has been a core objective of every 26000 government. During 2020-21, area under 25248 25076 cultivation increased by 4.2 percent to 25000 9,178 thousand hectares over last year’s 24349 sown area of 8,805 thousand hectares. Wheat crop recorded historic high 24000 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (P) production of 27.293 million tonnes showing an increase of 8.1 percent over 25.248 million tonnes production of last year. This was primarily due to the increase in cultivated area, along with the shift of policies towards supporting wheat crop through increase in MSP for the crop. The MSP in 2020-21 increased from Rs 1,400 to Rs 1,800 per 40 Kg, a 29 percent hike. The position over the last five years is given in Table 2.7 and Figure 2.4. Table 2.7: Area, Production and Yield of Wheat Year Area Production (000 % Change (000 % Change Hectares) Tonnes) 2016-17 8,972 26,674 2017-18 8,797 -1.9 25,076 -6.0 2018-19 8,678 -1.4 24,349 -2.9 2019-20 8,805 1.5 25,248 3.7 2020-21(P) 9,178 4.2 27,293 8.1 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Yield (Kgs /Hec.) % Change 2,973 2,851 2,806 2,867 2,974 -4.1 -1.6 2.2 3.7 23
58. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 v ) Maize Maize is the third important cereal crop of Pakistan after wheat and rice. It contributes 3.4 percent to the value added in agriculture and 0.6 percent to GDP. Maize is cultivated as a multipurpose crop for food, feed and fodder. While human consumption is declining, its utilization in feed and wet milling industry is growing at a fast pace. During 2020-21, maize was cultivated on an area of 1,418 Fig 2.5: Maize Production (000 Tonnes) thousand hectares reflecting an increase 8465 8500 of 1.0 percent over last year’s 1,404 7883 thousand hectares. Its production increased by 7.4 percent to 8.465 million 7500 6826 tonnes compared to last year’s production of 7.883 million tonnes. The production 6500 6134 5902 increase was largely due to increase in area, availability of improved variety of 5500 seed, and better economic returns. Last five years position is presented in Table 4500 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (P) 2.8 and Figure 2.5. Table 2.8: Area, Production and Yield of Maize Year Area (000 % Change Hectares) 1,348 1,251 -7.2 1,374 9.8 1,404 2.2 1,418 1.0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (P) P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Production (000 % Change Tonnes) 6,134 5,902 -3.8 6,826 15.7 7,883 15.5 8,465 7.4 Yield (Kgs /Hec.) % Change 4,550 4,718 4,968 5,615 5,970 3.7 5.3 13.0 6.3 b) Other Crops During 2020-21, Gram production declined by 47.6 percent to 266 thousand tonnes on account of decline in area, yield and unfavourable weather conditions. The production of Bajra and Jowar also witnessed a decrease of 30.7 percent and 20.0 percent respectively due to a decrease in area under cultivation. The production of Barley, Rapeseed & Mustard and Tobacco remained at the last year production level. The area and production of other crops are given in Table 2.9. Table 2.9: Area and Production of Other Kharif and Rabi Crops Crops 2019-20 2020-21(P) % Change in production over Area Production Area Production Last year (000 Hectares) (000 Tonnes) (000 Hectares) (000 Tonnes) 522 384 350 266 -30.7 199 120 126 96 -20.0 944 498 873 261 -47.6 49 47 41 47 353 488 222 488 51 133 51 133 - Bajra Jowar Gram Barley Rapeseed & Mustard Tobacco P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 24
59. Agriculture During 2020-21 , the production of Moong, Mash and Potato increased by 62.4, 7.7 and 2.8 percent respectively, as compared to the corresponding period of last year. However, the production of Chillies and Onion decreased by 26.7, 1.1 percent respectively, while production of Masoor remained same over last year. The area and production of other crops are given in Table 2.10. Table 2.10: Area and Production of Other Crops Crops 2019-20 Area Production (000 Hectares) (000 Tonnes) Masoor 9.5 4.9 Moong 172.9 125.9 Mash 13.9 6.5 Potato 185.4 4,552.7 Onion 148.2 2,122.0 Chillies 60.8 141.5 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 2020-21(P) Area Production (000 Hectares) (000 Tonnes) 6.5 4.9 231.1 204.5 11.0 7.0 234.4 4,681.0 153.8 2,099.6 45.7 103.7 % Change in production over Last year 62.4 7.7 2.8 -1.1 -26.7 i) Oilseeds During FY2021 (July-March), 2.917 million tonnes of edible oil of value Rs 574.199 billion (US$ 3.419 billion) was imported. Local production of edible oil during this period is provisionally estimated at 0.374 million tonnes. Total availability of edible oil from all sources is estimated at 3.291 million tonnes. The area and production of oilseed crops is given in Table 2.11. Table 2.11: Area and Production of Major Oilseed Crops (000 Tonnes) Crops 2019-20 2020-21 (July-March) (P) Area Production Area Production (000 Acres) (000 Acres) Seed Oil Seed Oil Cottonseed 6,243 2,342 281 5,137 1,782 214 Rapeseed & Mustard 984 561 179 608 338 108 Sunflower 250 146 55 151 87 33 Canola 125 78 30 77 49 19 Total 7,602 3,127 545 5,973 2,256 374 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Oilseed Development Board (PODB), Pakistan Bureau of Statistics For promotion of oilseed crops, PODB, Ministry of National Food Security & Research (MNFS&R) is executing a mega project “National Oilseed Enhancement Programme” with a total cost of Rs 10.964 billion under the National Agriculture Emergency Programme. Under this programme, a subsidy of Rs 5,000 per acre for seed/inputs for canola, sunflower and sesame and 50 percent on purchase of oilseed machineries is being provided to oilseed growers. II. Farm Inputs i) Fertilizer Pakistan meets around 84 percent of its fertilizer requirement through local production while the remaining is met through imports. 25
60. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Domestic production of fertilizers during FY2021 (July-March) increased by 5.9 percent over the same period of previous year. This increase was mainly due to the supply of gas to Pak Arab Fertilizer from Mari Petroleum Company Limited. The imported supply of fertilizer decreased by 20.1 percent, while the total availability of fertilizer increased slightly by 0.3 percent during the period. There was an upsurge in total offtake of fertilizer nutrients by 15.2 percent. Nitrogen offtake witnessed an upward trend of 13.2 percent, phosphate of 20.0 percent and potash of 39.3 percent during FY2021 (JulyMarch). One of the major reasons for the healthy growth in fertilizer usage was the increase in support price of wheat. Price of urea decreased by 12 percent while DAP increased by 12.2 percent. As a result of a reduction of Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC) to Rs 5/MMBTU, the cost of urea decreased by Rs 398 per bag with effect from 28th January, 2020. Following are the different types of subsidies provided by the government during FY2021.  Subsidy in the form of cheap natural gas used as feed for fertilizer production (Rs 865 per bag of urea as per fuel and feed price difference)  Subsidized LNG for production of urea from Fatimafert and Agritech (Rs 479 per bag)  Cash subsidy by Government of Punjab for phosphate and potash fertilizer (Rs 500 per bag of DAP and SOP and equivalent for other phosphate and potash fertilizers based on percent nutrient content) Total availability of urea during Kharif 2020 was 3,695 thousand tonnes, comprising of 591 thousand tonnes of opening inventory and 3,104 thousand tonnes of domestic production (Table 2.12). Urea offtake was about 3,188 thousand tonnes, leaving an inventory of 473 thousand tonnes for Rabi 2020-21. Availability of DAP was 1,456 thousand tonnes comprising of 500 thousand tonnes of opening inventory, 547 thousand tonnes of imported supplies and 409 thousand tonnes of local production. DAP offtake was 1,162 thousand tonnes leaving an inventory of 297 thousand tonnes for the upcoming Rabi 2020-21. Rabi 2020-21 started with an opening balance of 473 thousand tonnes of urea (Table 2.12). Domestic production during Rabi 2020-21 would be 3,017 thousand tonnes. Urea offtake during current Rabi 2020-21 was 3,220 thousand tonnes, against 3,490 thousand tonnes of total availability, leaving a closing balance of 304 thousand tonnes for next season. DAP availability during Rabi 2020-21 is estimated at about 1,162 thousand tonnes, which includes 297 thousand tonnes of opening inventory, 518 thousand tonnes of imported supplies and domestic production of 347 thousand tonnes. Offtake of DAP during Rabi season will be about 1,059 thousand tonnes, leaving a balance of 101 thousand tonnes for next season. The total availability of urea during Kharif 2021 will be about 3,536 thousand tonnes comprising of 304 thousand tonnes of opening balance and 3,232 thousand tonnes of domestic production (Table 2.12). Urea offtake is expected to be around 3,033 thousand tonnes, reflecting closing balance of 503 thousand tonnes. The total availability of DAP will be 566 thousand tonnes against expected offtake of 1,012 thousand tonnes. Supply and demand gap will be filled through imported supplies by the private sector. 26
61. Agriculture Table 2 .12: Fertilizer Supply Demand Situation Description Kharif (Apr-Sep) 2020 Urea DAP Rabi (Oct-Mar) 2020-21 Urea DAP (000 Tonnes) Kharif (Apr-Sep) 2021* Urea DAP Opening Stock 591 500 473 297 304 Imported Supplies 0 547 0 518 0 Domestic Production 3,104 409 3,017 347 3,232 Total Availability 3,695 1,456 3,490 1,162 3,536 Offtake/Demand 3,188 1,162 3,220 1,059 3,033 Write on/off -34 3 34 -2 0 Closing Stock 473 297 304 101 503 *: It is assumed that Fatimafert and Agritech will remain operational for whole Kharif season. Source: National Fertilizer Development Centre 101 45 420 566 1,012 0 -446 ii) Improved Seed Seed is a basic input for agriculture sector and has a leading role in enhancing agricultural productivity. To improve the availability of quality seed to the farmers of Pakistan, there is a need to revitalize research and development and adopt international best practices in line with the requirements of the domestic and global markets. Seed Sector Reforms 1. Seed (Business Regulation) Rules, 2016 Upon recommendations of the Agriculture Transformation Plan approved by the Prime Minister, Seed (Business Regulation) Rules, 2016 and Seed (Regulation) Rules, 1987 have been amended. MNFS&R has revised the criteria for induction, performance evaluation and cancellation of seed companies. Strict verifications have been put in place with the consent of the breeder/institute to provide source of seed material for multiplication by the company.  Procedure for approval has been revised i.e., Working Group replaced with the Seed Business Regulation Committee  Separate requirements for local seed producers, importers and exporters have been delineated  Technical parameters for each set of company have been clearly defined  Mandatory local seed production for importing companies has been made a precondition  Performance bonds submission by the candidate company has been proposed  Conditions for cancellation of companies have been clearly mentioned 2. Seed (Registration) Rules, 1987 Upon recommendations in the Agriculture Transformation Plan approved by the Prime Minister, Seed (Registration) Rules, 1987 have been amended. Through these rules, provision has been made for rapid multiplication of seed of unique new varieties after completion of 1st year DUS (distinctness, uniformity, stability) and NUYT (National Uniform Yield Trials) upon joint recommendation of Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department (FSC&RD) and PARC. Such varieties must satisfy the criteria of novelty, high yield, and pest/disease resistance. 27
62. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 3 . Establishing a System of Consumer Traceability for Seed Authenticity MNFS&R with the help of National Telecommunication Corporation (NTC) is in the process of establishing a system of track and traceability of seed produced by seed companies, certified by FSC&RD and sold by seed dealers. In this respect, a system of unique algorithmic labels will be introduced which farmers will be able to verify through SMS. Developing a Seed Information Management System for FSC&RD is also part of the interventions which will be a step forward in transforming manual data recording to digitize FSC&RD services. This will not only provide access to real time data but will also improve the efficiency and transparency in activities pertaining to seed quality regulation. Track and Traceability of Certified Seed FSC&RD in collaboration with provincial extension departments has started track and traceability of certified seed so that the impact of these interventions can be calculated at farm level. In this regard, a unified format has been designed for major crops i.e., wheat, cotton and paddy. A total of 434 companies working on wheat were assessed for seed traceability of 513,519 MT seed, of which data was traced for 361,408 MT i.e. 87.4 percent. Services of 110 companies with respect to wheat seed testing were deferred owing to failure in providing traceability data or huge traceability gaps. The information regarding sale of cotton certified seed to dealers by the seed companies is being shared with provincial extension departments for traceability of certified seed at farmer level. The area, seed requirement and seed availability during FY2021 (July-March), are given in Table 2.13. Table 2.13: Area, Seed Requirement and Seed Availability (Metric Tonnes) Crop Sowing Total Seed Seed Availability Area* Requirement Public Private Imported Total (000 Ha) Wheat** 8,709 1,075,562 0 0 0 647,684 Cotton 2,310 39,940 425 41,584 0 43,525 Paddy 2,957 44,148 6,406 62,201 2,988 71,595 Maize 1,328 32,802 88 3,794 12,758 16,639 Pulses 1,185 42,674 1,054 2,731 0 3,785 Oilseeds 830 10,790 20 1,736 710 2,466 Vegetables 280 8,400 7 4,449 2,295 6,751 Fodders 2,038 61,140 2,942 18,428 21,244 42,614 Potato 166 415,000 0 0 13,841 13,841 Total 19,803 1,736,161 10,968 134,923 53,835 847,411 *: Area has been decided by the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), MNFS&R. **: These figures are provisional based upon wheat crop inspection expected yield estimates. Final seed availability figures will be available after testing of seed samples. Source: Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department iii) Farm Mechanization Farm mechanization is an important element to accelerate growth in agriculture sector and its lack is a main constraint in increasing agricultural productivity. The federal government continued the relief package that allows import of farm machinery and 28
63. Agriculture equipment at reduced tariff (Custom Duty 0-2 percent and GST 07 percent) to encourage mechanized farming in the country. The domestic tractor industry has played a significant role in fulfilling the requirements of tractors. The number of operational tractors in the country is around 612,000 resulting in availability of around 0.09 horsepower (HP) per acre against the required power of 1.4 HP per acre. During 2020-21 (July-March), total tractor production was 36,653 compared to 23,266 produced last year, a 57.5 percent increase. The production increase was largely due to an improved liquidity position of farmers. The prices and production of locally manufactured tractors are given in Table 2.14. Table 2.14: Prices and Production of Locally Manufactured Tractors 2020-21 (July-March) Basic GST @ Total Price Actual Actual Tractors Model – Price (Rs) 05 percent (Rs) Production Sale (in Horse Power (HP) (in Nos.) Nos.) M/s Al-Ghazi Tractors Limited* 480-S (55 HP) 900,000 45,000 945,000 2,032 1,839 480 Power Steering (55 HP) 923,000 46,150 969,150 315 319 480-S Power Steering (55 HP) 947,000 47,350 994,350 490 450 Ghazi (65 HP) 1,031,000 51,550 1,082,550 2,855 2,296 Ghazi-WDB (65 HP) 1,040,000 52,000 1,092,000 56 54 640 (75 HP) 1,373,000 68,650 1,441,650 1,153 975 640-WDB (75 HP) 1,383,100 69,150 1,452,150 31 21 640-S (85 HP) 1,402,000 70,100 1,472,100 63 63 640-S WDB (85 HP) 1,405,000 70,250 1,475,250 15 15 Dabung (85 HP) 1,409,000 70,450 1,479,450 186 156 NH-70-56 4WD (85 HP) 1,885,000 94,250 1,979,250 1 10 Total 7,197 6,198 M/s Millat Tractors Limited MF-240 (50 HP) 950,000 47,500 997,500 2,225 2,205 MF-350 Plus (50 HP) 1,040,000 52,000 1,092,000 2,208 2,205 MF-260 (60 HP) 1,096,000 54,800 1,150,800 2,799 2,815 MF-360 (60 HP) 1,140,000 57,000 1,197,000 2,891 3,007 MF-360 4wd (60 HP) 1,655,000 82,750 1,737,750 2,430 2,331 MF-375 (75 HP) 1,445,000 68,850 1,517,250 3,440 2,975 MF-385 (85 HP) 1,508,000 92,450 1,583,400 3,374 3,862 MF-375 4WD (75 HP) 1,920,000 72,500 2,016,000 2,934 3,008 MF-385 4WD (85 HP) 2,050,000 99,950 2,152,500 3,612 3,507 Total 25,913 25,915 Grand Total 33,110 32,113 *: July-February Source: Tractor Manufacturers, Federal Water Management Cell iv) Irrigation During the monsoon season (July-September) 2020, rainfall received at 198.9 mm showing a significant increase of 41.2 percent against the normal average rainfall of 140.9 mm. During post-monsoon season (October-December) 2020, rainfall was recorded at 22.2 mm against the normal average rainfall of 26.4, a decline of 15.9 percent. During winter season (January-March) 2021, rainfall recorded was 40.3 mm 29
64. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 against the normal average rainfall of 74 .3 mm, a decrease of 45.8 percent. Rainfall recorded is given in Table 2.15. Table 2.15: Pakistan’s Rainfall* Recorded During 2020-21 Monsoon Rainfall Post Monsoon Rainfall (Jul-Sep) 2020 (Oct-Dec) 2020 Normal** 140.9 26.4 Actual 198.9 22.2 Shortage (-)/excess (+) +58.0 -4.2 % Shortage (-)/excess (+) +41.2 -15.9 *: Area Weighted **: Normal/Long Period Average of 1961-2010 Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department (in Millimetres) Winter Rainfall (Jan-Mar) 2021 74.3 40.3 -34.0 -45.8 Canal head withdrawals decreased by 0.2 percent during Kharif (April-September) 2020 to 65.11 MAF compared to 65.23 MAF during the same season last year. During Rabi (October-March) 2020-21, it showed an increase of 6.9 percent to 31.21 MAF compared to 29.20 MAF during the same season last year. The province-wise details are shown in Table 2.16. Table 2.16: Canal Head Withdrawals (Below Rim Stations) Province Punjab Sindh Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Total Kharif (Apr-Sep) 2019 34.42 28.04 1.87 0.91 65.23 Kharif (Apr-Sep) 2020 33.44 28.80 2.02 0.85 65.11 Million Acre Feet (MAF) % Change in Rabi Rabi % Change in Kharif 2020 (Oct-Mar) (Oct-Mar) Rabi 2020-21 Over 2019 2019-20 2020-21 Over 2019-20 -3 3 8 -6 -0.2 14.67 12.92 1.24 0.36 29.20 17.42 12.01 1.22 0.57 31.21 19 -7 -2 56 6.9 Source: Indus River System Authority Pakistan is a water stressed country and, therefore, efficient use of water is important for provision of safe drinking water, sustainable agricultural and industrial growth. The agriculture sector, core of national economy and food security, is highly vulnerable to changes in water availability. In the wake of imminent water crisis, inclusive and comprehensive planning is imperative. One of the major objectives of the National Water Policy (2018) is to enhance the water storage capacity of Pakistan by adding 10 MAF. At present, the water storage capacity of Pakistan is around 13.68 MAF for 30 day. To overcome water scarcity and to enhance storage capacity, two major storage dams (Diamer Basha and Mohmand Dam) along with 518 medium and small dams with total storage capacity of 8.33 MAF have been initiated throughout the country. The ongoing Water Sector Development Programme, costing Rs 1,151 billion, centres around five important elements, which are water augmentation, water conservation, groundwater management, protection of infrastructure from water logging/salinity and floods and proposition of institutional reforms. Future water sector development strategies/policies aim at construction of small/medium and large dams and development of existing irrigation and drainage infrastructure. 30
65. Agriculture Major Achievement during FY2021 Despite the COVID-19 pandemic , all efforts were made to fully protect the on-going water sector development programme during FY2021. Following major objectives are expected to achieve by the end of current FY2021: Completion of 22 on-going projects at a cost of Rs 124 billion, resulting in bringing about 40 thousand acres area under cultivation especially in Balochistan  About 1.567 million acres of agriculture land protected from water logging & salinity by completion of RBOD-I & III in Sindh  Rainwater harvesting of 0.21 MAF through construction of small dams for irrigation, flood protection and drinking water supplies for more than 10,000 people in Balochistan  Employment generation for about 10,000 people (direct/indirect)  Recharging 1,000 wells/tube wells and improvement of about 400 Karezes in Balochistan  Around Rs 46 billion allocated for construction of large/medium dams followed by Rs 10 billion for construction of small/recharge/check dams  Safe disposal of drainage effluent into sea through construction of RBOD-I,II & III  For remodeling of existing irrigation system, a sum of Rs 961 million is planned to be expended. However, the programme will be gradually transferred to the provinces  About Rs 6.84 billion are expected to be incurred for construction of new canals (Kachhi, Rainee, Warsak and Maki Farash Link Canal) Major water sector projects under implementation are given in Table 2.17.  Table 2.17: Major Water Sector Projects Project Location App. cost (Rs million) 479,000 Live Storage 6.40 MAF Irrigated Area Not applicable (4,500 MW Power Gen.) Basha Dam (Dam Part only) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa & Gilgit Baltistan Kachhi Canal (Phase-I) Remaining Works Balochistan 22,921 - 72,000 Acres Nai Gaj Dam Sindh 26,236 160,000 (Acre Ft) 28,800 Acres (4.2 MW Power Gen.) KurramTangi Dam (PhaseI,Kaitu Weir) Naulong Dam Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 21,059 0.90 MAF Balochistan 18,027 0.20 MAF 84,380 Acre New 278,000 Acres Existing (18.9 MW Power Gen.) 47,000 Acres (4.4 MW Power Gen.) Status Rs 43.8 billion has been incurred upto June 2020 in addition to Rs 16 billion during 2020-21, for timely completion. Phase-I completed. Out of 102,000 acres CCA about 50,000 acres have been developed of Dera Bugti district of Balochistan. 52 % Physical works completed, 2nd Revised PC-I costing Rs 46 billion in approval process. 56% Physical works completed. Feasibility & Detailed Engg. Design completed. Updated 2nd revised PC-I costing Rs35,484 million is under approval process. 31
66. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 2 .17: Major Water Sector Projects Project Location App. cost (Rs million) Mohmand Dam Hydropower Project (800 MW) Right Bank Outfall Drain Mohmand District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 114,285 (dam part) cost Live Storage 0.676 MAF Irrigated Area 16,737 Acres (800 MW Power Gen.) RBOD-II will help to dispose 3,520 cusecs of drainage effluent into Sea received from RBOD-I & III RBOD-I Sindh 17,505 RBOD-II Sindh 61,985 RBOD-III Balochistan 10,804 Source: Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives Status Rs 25.51 billion has been incurred upto June 2020 in addition to Rs 7.0 billion during 2020-21 for timely completion of this priority project. Completed. 72% completed. 98% completed. Implementation of water management projects launched during FY2020 under the Prime Minister’s Agriculture Emergency Programme to “Conserve and increase Productivity of Water” continued during FY2021. The overall progress of these projects is given hereunder: a) The project “National Programme for Improvement of Watercourses in Pakistan-Phase-II” envisages to improve, reconstruct/renovate 47,278 water courses, 50 percent of the total length of watercourses and construct 14,932 water storage tanks. In addition, 11,610 Laser Land Levelers will be provided to beneficiaries at 50 percent cost sharing basis (maximum share of government: Rs 250,000 per beneficiary). The total project cost of Rs 154.542 billion over a period of 05 years which will be shared by the federal and provincial governments and the beneficiaries. The project is being implemented in the provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and in Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT). Key objectives of the project are:  Social mobilization through capacity building of Water User’s Associations/ Farmer Organizations  Minimization of conveyance and field application losses  Reduction in water logging and salinity  Equity in water distribution  Reduction in water disputes/thefts/litigation  Motivation/participation of farmers  Poverty reduction through employment generation  Increase in crops yield/self-sufficiency in food So far improvement of 5,237 watercourses and construction of 1,439 has been completed. Similarly, 1,975 Laser Land Levelers have been distributed to beneficiaries. b) The project titled “Water Conservation in Barani Areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa” envisages construction of water ponds, check dams, water reservoirs, stream banks stabilization, terracing, sand-dune stabilization, installation and solarisation of tube wells etc in Barani areas of Khyber 32
67. Agriculture Pakhtunkhwa . The total project cost of Rs 14.177 billion over a period of 05 years will be shared between the federal and provincial government and the beneficiaries. The project envisages to:     Conserve land and water resources through various interventions for supplemental irrigation, livestock, farm forestry and fish farming Increase cropping intensity and per unit of land and water productivity Improve livelihood standards of poor farmers Improve socio-economic stability c) Implementation of project “National Programme for Enhancing Command Area in Barani Areas of Pakistan” started during the current financial year. The project is to be implemented in all provinces including AJK, GB, and ICT over a period of five year. The project cost of Rs 25.345 billion will be shared by the federal and provincial governments and the beneficiaries. The project envisaged to:      Save about 42,180 acre feet runoff water for irrigation and barani areas Bring more than 170,000 acres of land under irrigated agriculture through various project interventions Provide more than 39,000 KW clean energy (solar) at farms Bring 45,518 acres under fruit trees, 112,189 acres under oilseed/pulses, and 81,676 acres under better fodder/forage/rangeland for livestock Increase income of farmers besides improving socio-economic conditions of barani area farmers Despite a late start, project activities are gaining pace and current year targets are likely be achieved. iv) Agricultural Credit In pursuance of the government’s agenda for promoting agriculture sector, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has assigned an indicative agriculture credit disbursement target of Rs 1,500 billion for FY2021, 23.5 percent higher than last year’s disbursement of Rs 1,215 billion. Currently, 50 agriculture lending institutions are providing agricultural loans to farmers including five major commercial banks, two specialized banks (ZTBL & PPCBL), 14 domestic private banks, 5 Islamic banks, 11 microfinance banks and 13 microfinance institutions/rural support programmes (MFIs/RSPs). Despite the pandemic, agriculture credit disbursement is encouraging. During FY2021 (July-March), the agriculture lending institutions have disbursed Rs 953.7 billion which is 63.6 percent of the annual target and 4.6 percent higher than the disbursement of Rs 912.2 billion during the same period last year. However, the outstanding portfolio of agriculture loans has increased by Rs 29.7 billion i.e., from Rs 572.1 billion to Rs 601.8 billion or 5.2 percent at end March 2021 as compared to same period last year. In terms of outreach, the number of outstanding borrowers has reached 3.5 million in March 2021. The comparative disbursements of agriculture lending banks/institutions against their annual indicative targets are presented in Table 2.18: 33
68. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 2 .18: Supply of Agriculture Credit by Institutions Banks Major Commercial Banks (5) ZTBL PPCBL DPBs (14) Islamic Banks (5) MFBs (11) MFIs/RSPs Total Source: State Bank of Pakistan Target FY2020 (July-March) Target FY2020 Disbursed Achieved FY2021 (%) 705 100 13 253.6 55 184 39.4 1,350 515.2 52.5 6.3 169.3 31.0 115.2 22.7 912.2 73.1 800 52.5 105 48.8 13 66.8 296 56.3 63 62.6 182 57.5 41 67.7 1,500 (Rs billion) FY2021 (July-March) Disbursed Achieved (%) 554.2 56.5 5.2 192.5 35.9 92.8 16.6 953.7 69.3 53.8 39.8 65.0 57.0 51.0 40.5 63.6 % Change over the Period 7.6 7.6 -18.4 13.7 15.9 -19.4 -26.6 4.6 Sector-wise analysis of disbursement reveals that out of the total disbursement of Rs 953.7 billion, the farm sector has received Rs 507.9 billion (53.3 percent) while Rs 445.8 billion (46.7 percent) has been disbursed to non-farm sector during FY2021(JulyMarch). The agricultural data of farm credit by land holdings reveals that Rs 150.0 billion has been disbursed to subsistence farm size (8.4 percent growth) and Rs 56.2 billion to economic farm size and Rs 301.7 billion to the above economic farm size (12.7 percent growth). Under non-farm sector, agriculture lending institutions disbursed Rs 102.1 billion to small farms, a negative growth mainly due to lower credit offtake especially in poultry sector. An amount of Rs 343.7 billion has been disbursed to large farms showing a positive growth of 3 percent. The sector-wise comparative details of credit disbursements are given below in Table 2.19. Table 2.19 : Credit Disbursement to Farm & Non-Farm Sectors (Rs billion) % Sector FY2020 (July-March) FY2021 (July-March) (Land Holding/Farm size) Disbursement % Share Disbursement % Share Growth in Total in Total over the Period A Farm Sector 1 Subsistence Holding1 2 Economic Holding2 3 Above Economic Holding3 B Non-Farm Sector 1 Small Farms 2 Large Farms Total (A+B) Source: State Bank of Pakistan 459.6 138.3 53.5 267.8 452.6 118.8 333.8 912.2 50.4 15.2 5.9 29.4 49.6 13.0 36.6 100.0 507.9 150.0 56.2 301.7 445.8 102.1 343.7 953.7 53.3 15.7 5.9 31.6 46.7 10.7 36.0 100.0 10.5 8.4 5.1 12.7 -1.5 -14.1 3.0 4.6 In terms of sectoral and purpose wise performance of agriculture credit sectors, the production loans of farm sector grew by 5.0 percent and development loans increased by 93.7 percent during the period FY2021 (July-March). The livestock/dairy and meat sector witnessed 5.6 percent growth with poultry sector recording 11.2 percent decline 1 Landholding in acres (Punjab and KPK up to 12.5, Sindh up to 16.0 and Balochistan up to 32.0) Landholding in acres (Punjab and KPK 12.5-50.0, Sindh 16.0-64.0 and Balochistan 32.0-64.0) 3 Landholding in acres (Punjab and KPK above 50.0, Sindh and Balochistan above 64.0) 2 34
69. Agriculture during the period under review . The sector wise/purpose wise agricultural credit disbursements are shown in Table-2.20: Table 2.20: Credit Disbursements by Sector & Purpose Sector& Purpose A Farm Sector 1 Production Loans 2 Development Loans B Non-Farm Sector 1 Livestock/Dairy & Meat 2 Poultry 3 Fisheries 4 Forestry 5 Others Total (A+B) Source: State Bank of Pakistan FY2020 (July-March) Amount % Share Disbursed within Sector 459.6 430.9 28.7 452.6 236.7 177.9 4.1 0.015 33.9 912.2 50.4 93.8 6.2 49.6 52.3 39.3 0.9 0.003 7.5 100.0 (Rs billion) FY2021 (July-March) Amount % Share Disbursed within Sector 507.9 452.4 55.6 445.8 250.1 158.0 5.3 0.011 32.4 953.7 53.3 89.1 10.9 46.7 56.1 35.4 1.2 0.003 7.3 100.0 % Growth over the Period 10.5 5.0 97.7 -1.5 5.6 -11.2 30.1 -23.7 -4.4 4.6 SBP’s Initiatives for the Promotion of Agriculture Financing For promotion of agricultural financing, some of the major initiatives taken by SBP in collaboration with federal and provincial governments are as under: 1. Loan repayment relief to dampen the effects of COVID-19: The banks have been instructed to defer principal amount of agricultural loans for one-year on borrowers’ request. Regulatory space is also provided to facilitate banks in rescheduling/ restructuring of loans for borrowers who cannot service markup or need deferment exceeding one year. In this regard, as of April 16, 2021, MFBs provided relief in terms of deferred/restructured/rescheduled loans of Rs 121.3 billion to 1.72 million microfinance borrowers and relief of Rs 11.6 billion to 27,216 agricultural borrowers. 2. Crop Loan Insurance Scheme (CLIS): In 2008, the Government of Pakistan (GoP) introduced the mandatory crop loan insurance scheme for five major crops i.e. wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize to mitigate the risk of losses of farmer in case of calamities. The insurance premium is borne by the government up to maximum of 2 percent per crop per season for the farmers having land holding up to 25 acres in all provinces except Balochistan where the eligibility of land holding is 32 acres. During the period July 2008 to December 2020, banks have submitted premium claims of Rs 9.4 billion against 6.54 million beneficiaries. 3. Livestock Insurance Scheme for Borrowers (LISB): To minimize the risk of disease or death of animals due to accidents and natural calamities in livestock & dairy sector, the farmers’ have improved access to LISB since 2013. The scheme covers small farmers having up to 10 animals and the government bears premium subsidy up to 4 percent per annum. During the period July 2014 to December 2020, banks have submitted premium claims of Rs 2.84 billion against 0.82 million beneficiaries. 35
70. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 4 . Adoption of Automation of Land Record for Agriculture Financing: SBP facilitated in creating partnerships between Punjab Land Revenue Authority (PLRA) and banks for integration of the Land Record Management Information System (LRMIS) with the banks to enable online assessment and charge creation on agricultural land for loans to farmers. As many as 35 agriculture lending banks have signed MOUs with PLRA, of which 25 banks have been brought on board and are verifying revenue documents and also generating ‘Fard’ (title document) through this integrated online system. Further, to help other provinces gear up their land record automation efforts, SBP has facilitated peer learning of provincial and regional land revenue authorities by organizing online knowledge sharing sessions. 5. Implementation of Credit Guarantee Scheme for Small and Marginalized Farmers: The government announced the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Small & Marginalized Farmers in federal budget 2014-15. The scheme aims to encourage financial institutions to lend to those small farmers who do not have adequate collateral (acceptable to banks) to meet their working capital requirements. Since 2016, more than 114,000 borrowers have benefitted from the scheme with loans amounting to Rs19.4 billion. 6. Regulatory Space for Innovative Financing: Relevant Prudential Regulations have been amended to allow Electronic Warehouse Receipt (EWR) as acceptable collateral for bank financing. Further, the maximum tenure for agriculture development loans have been increased to 10 years to encourage development and mechanization for efficiency, resource conservation and yield enhancement. Additionally, Report on Indicative Credit Limits and Eligible Items for Agriculture Financing has also been revised to allow banks to provide loans to farmers as per their internal policies. This will also facilitate provincial planning departments in estimating the total financial and credit requirements of provinces/regions for agriculture sector. 7. Government of Punjab E-Credit Scheme: SBP has facilitated the Government of Punjab in designing and implementing the E-Credit scheme wherein E-Passbook and other automated land revenue records, accessible through an online portal, are being used by participating financial institutions (ZTBL, NBP, Telenor Microfinance Banks, Akhuwat and NRSP) to provide interest free loans to small farmers. Up to Rabi 201920, total loan amount of around Rs 62 billion had been disbursed to 890,000 small farmers. 8. Workshops/Trainings/Capacity & Awareness Building: SBP regularly organizes various training programmes and awareness sessions both on-field and virtual to meet demand and supply side capacity building requirements of agriculture finance stakeholders including banks and farmers. These training programmes include Farmers Financial Literacy Programmes and awareness sessions on Agricultural Value Chain Financing, Job Fairs for Agriculture Graduates, Warehouse Receipt Financing, Islamic Agricultural Financing etc. III. Forestry Pakistan is a forest deficient country, mainly due to arid and semi-arid climate in large parts of the country. The country is maintaining 4.51 million hectares, to 5.01 percent area under forest cover out of which 3.44 million hectares forests exist on state-owned 36
71. Agriculture lands and remaining on communal and private lands . Though forests have a meager share of 2.1 percent in agriculture, they provide foundations of life, regulate climate and water resources, and serve as a habitat for plants and animals. Rapidly growing population coupled with poverty and lack of awareness has led to illegal and unsustainable logging, and overharvesting of wood for fuel and charcoal. Forest fires, natural hazards, pests and diseases further contribute to the declining forest cover. These challenges threaten the survival of species, people’s livelihoods and undermine the vital services that forests provide. IV. Livestock and Poultry a) Livestock Over the years livestock has emerged as the largest subsector in agriculture. The sector contributed 60.1 percent to the agriculture value addition and 11.5 percent to the GDP during FY2021. More than 8 million rural families are engaged in livestock production and deriving more than 35-40 percent of their income from this source. Gross value addition of livestock increased to Rs 1,505 billion (2020-21) from Rs 1,461 billion (2019-20), an increase of 3.0 percent. The government has renewed its focus on the livestock sector for economic growth, food security, and poverty alleviation in the country. The overall livestock development strategy resolves to foster "private sector-led development with public sector providing enabling environment through policy interventions". The regulatory measures are aimed at improving per unit animal productivity by improving health coverage, management practices, animal breeding practices, artificial insemination services, use of balanced ration for animal feeding, and controlling livestock diseases. To address investment related issue in the value added livestock export sector, government is considering to develop meat export processing zones, (for Foot & Mouth Disease (FMD), Peste des Petitis Ruminants (PPR), Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), facilitate setting up of modern slaughterhouses and introduce various schemes to facilitate access to finances. The focus is on breed improvement for enhanced productivity, establishment of nucleus herd and identification of breeds that are well adapted to various agriculture climatic zones of Pakistan. The national herd population of livestock for the last three years is given in Table 2.21. Table 2.21: Estimated Livestock Population (Million Nos.) 1 1 Species 2018-19 2019-20 2020-211 Cattle 47.8 49.6 51.5 Buffalo 40.0 41.2 42.4 Sheep 30.9 31.2 31.6 Goat 76.1 78.2 80.3 Camels 1.1 1.1 1.1 Horses 0.4 0.4 0.4 Asses 5.4 5.5 5.6 Mules 0.2 0.2 0.2 1: Estimated figure based on inter census growth rate of Livestock Census 1996 & 2006 Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research 37
72. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The position of milk and meat production for the last three years is given in Table 2 .22. Table 2.22: Estimated Milk and Meat Production Species 2018-191 Milk (Gross Production) 59,759 Cow 21,691 Buffalo 36,180 2 Sheep 40 Goat 940 Camel2 908 Milk (Human Consumption)3 48,185 Cow 17,353 Buffalo 28,944 Sheep 40 Goat 940 Camel 908 4 Meat 4,478 Beef 2,227 Mutton 732 Poultry meat 1,518 2019-201 61,690 22,508 37,256 41 965 920 49,737 18,007 29,805 41 965 920 4,708 2,303 748 1,657 (000 Tonnes) 2020-211 63,684 23,357 38,363 41 991 932 51,340 18,686 30,691 41 991 932 4,955 2,380 765 1,809 1: The figures for milk and meat production for the indicated years are calculated by applying milk production parameters to the projected population of respective years based on the inter census growth rate of Livestock Census 1996 & 2006. 2: The figures for the milk production for the indicated years are calculated after adding the production of milk from camel and sheep to the figures reported in the Livestock Census 2006. 3: Milk for human consumption is derived by subtracting 20 percent wastage (15 percent faulty transportation and lack of chilling facilities and 5 percent in suckling calf nourishment) of the gross milk production of cows and buffalo. 4: The figures for meat production are of red meat and do not include the edible offal’s. Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research The estimated production of other livestock products for the last three years is given in Table 2.23. Table 2.23: Estimated Livestock Products Production Species Units 2018-191 Eggs Million Nos. 19,052 Hides 000 Nos. 17,547 Cattle 000 Nos. 9,063 Buffalo 000 Nos. 8,373 Camels 000 Nos. 111 Skins 000 Nos. 58,116 Sheep Skin 000 Nos. 11,669 Goat Skin 000 Nos. 29,334 Fancy Skin 000 Nos. 17,113 Lamb skin 000 Nos. 3,466 Kid skin 000 Nos. 13,647 Wool 000 Tonnes 46.8 Hair 000 Tonnes 28.6 Edible Offal’s 000 Tonnes 428 Blood 000 Tonnes 71.3 Casings 000 Nos. 58,712 Guts 000 Nos. 18,654 Horns & Hooves 000 Tonnes 62.4 Bones 000 Tonnes 932.5 38 2019-201 20,133 18,139 9,405 8,622 112 59,460 11,807 30,129 17,524 3,507 14,017 47.3 29.4 440 73.1 60,069 19,280 64.3 961.0 2021-211 21,285 18,751 9,759 8,878 114 60,837 11,947 30,946 17,945 3,548 14,397 47.9 30.2 452 75.0 61,461 19,929 66.2 990.3
73. Agriculture Table 2 .23: Estimated Livestock Products Production Species Units 2018-191 2019-201 2021-211 Fats 000 Tonnes 295.8 304.5 313.6 Dung 000 Tonnes 1,322 1,362 1,405 Urine 000 Tonnes 401 413 425 Head & Trotters 000 Tonnes 267.0 274.6 282.4 Ducks, Drakes & Ducklings Million Nos. 0.40 0.38 0.37 1: The figures for livestock product for the indicated years were calculated by applying production parameters to the projected population of respective years. Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research b) Poultry Poultry sector is one of the most important sub-sectors of livestock sector as it provides employment to more than 1.5 million people in country. With an investment of more than Rs 750 billion, this industry is growing at an impressive rate of approximately 7.5 percent per annum over the last decade. Pakistan is now placed at the 11th position among the largest poultry producers of the world and has ample space for further improvement. The Poultry Development Strategy revolves around disease control, hi-tech poultry production, processing, value addition, improving poultry husbandry practices and diversification of products. Through farmer friendly policies, the government has been encouraging rural as well as commercial poultry production. The estimated production of commercial and rural poultry products for the last three years is given in Table 2.24. Table 2.24: Estimated Domestic/Rural & Commercial Poultry Type Units 2018-191 2019-201 2020-211 Domestic Poultry Million Nos. 88.49 89.84 91.22 Cocks Million Nos. 12.18 12.51 12.85 Hens Million Nos. 43.15 43.93 44.72 Chicken Million Nos. 33.16 33.40 33.65 Eggs2 Million Nos. 4,315 4,393 4,472 Meat 000 Tonnes 122.28 124.72 127.22 Duck, Drake & Duckling Million Nos. 0.40 0.38 0.37 Eggs2 Million Nos. 17.93 17.18 16.47 Meat 000 Tonnes 0.54 0.52 0.50 Commercial Poultry Million Nos. 1,232.33 1,353.24 1,486.09 Layers Million Nos. 55.91 59.82 64.01 Broilers Million Nos. 1,163.42 1,279.76 1,407.73 Breeding Stock Million Nos. 13.01 13.66 14.34 Day Old Chicks Million Nos. 1,215.19 1,336.71 1,470.38 Eggs2 Million Nos. 14,719 15,723 16,797 Meat 000 Tonnes 1,395.02 1,531.60 1,681.64 Total Poultry Day Old Chicks Million Nos. 1,248 1,370 1,504 Poultry Birds Million Nos. 1,321 1,443 1,578 Eggs Million Nos. 19,052 20,133 21,285 Poultry Meat 000 Tonnes 1,518 1,657 1,809 1: The figures for the indicated years are statistically calculated using the figures of 2005-06. 2: The figures for Eggs (Farming) and Eggs (Desi) are calculated using the poultry parameters for egg production. Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research 39
74. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Ongoing Projects The federal government has launched following programmes under the “Prime Minister’s National Agriculture Emergency Programme”: Back Yard Poultry: Under this project five million pre-vaccinated high laying backyard birds will be distributed among public across the country at subsidized rates in four years. This will provide livelihood and adequate animal protein to undernourished population. The total cost of the project is Rs 1.6 billion and 30 percent will be contributed jointly by federal and provincial governments while rest of the cost is expected to be borne by the beneficiary. Safe the Calf: Under this project, 380,000 male calves have been projected to be saved from early slaughter in 4 years period through financial incentive of Rs 3,000 per calf to farmers besides reducing mortality with improved nutrition and husbandry practices. The intervention will provide stock for feedlot fattening for enhanced productivity and quality beef which ultimately result in high profit margins for the farmers and reduced rural poverty. The total cost of the project is Rs 3.4 billion. The federal government will contribute 20 percent of total cost while the remaining will be shared by provincial governments. Calf Feedlot Fattening in Pakistan: Under this programme Rs 4,000 for each calf has been allocated as financial incentive to persuade farmers to produce healthy and nutritious beef in the country. The intervention will promote feedlot fattening business in the country. The total cost of the project is Rs 2.4 billion. The following two projects are also being launched by federal government: i. Development of Yak at High Altitude Area of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan): The main objective of the project is to increase the population of Yak in potential valleys of Gilgit–Baltistan through support and training to Yak farmers for proper feedings, breeding, disease control, fattening and marketing. Under this project assistance will also be provided for development of hygienic butcheries in the private sector with the aim to improve livelihood of farmers and self-sustaining Yak entrepreneurs. The total cost of the project is Rs 54.0 million. ii. National Peste Des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication Programme: Under this project efforts will be made to move Pakistan into Stage 3 of the progressive step-wise approach of Office International des Epizooties (OIE) for PPR eradiation in next five years. This will be achieved by maintaining an efficient surveillance system through better coordination between different laboratories and the use of bio-molecular techniques for epidemiology of PPR in Pakistan. The total cost of the project is Rs 1.8 billion. Government Policy Measures M/o NFS&R with its re-defined role under the 18th Constitutional Amendment undertook the following measures: i) Import of high yielding dairy cattle breeds of Holstein-Friesian and Jersey for enhanced milk production ii) Provision of semen and 40
75. Agriculture embryos of high yielding animals for the genetic improvement of indigenous low producing animals iii ) Import of high quality feed stuff/micro ingredients for improving the nutritional quality of animals & poultry feed, and iv) Import of dairy, meat and poultry processing machinery/equipments at concessional tariff/duty in order to encourage and promote the establishment of value addition in the country. Future Plans M/o NFS&R plans to focus on the following in future: • • • • • • Inter-provincial coordination for development of livestock sector Coordination with private sector to promote value addition in livestock industry and diversification of livestock production Control of Trans-boundary Animal Diseases (FMD, PPR, Zoonotic diseases) of trade and economic importance through provincial participation Bringing more investments in livestock sector Exploring new markets for export of meat and dairy products with focus on global Halal food trade market Development of national breeding policy V. Fisheries Fisheries as a subsector of agriculture, plays an important role in the national economy and towards food security of the country by reducing pressure on demand for mutton, beef, and poultry. It is also considered to be an important source of livelihood for the coastal population. Besides marine fishery, inland fishery (based in rivers, lakes, dams etc.) is also an important activity throughout the country. Although the share of fisheries in GDP is negligible, it contributes to the national income through export earnings. During FY2021 (July-March), fish production remained at 690.600 thousand metric tonnes of which 465.200 thousand metric tonnes was from marine and the remaining was produced by inland fishery sector. Fish production in FY2020 (July-March) was 701.726 thousand metric tonnes in which 474.025 thousand metric tonnes was from marine and the remaining from the inland fishery sector. The production of fish & fishery products has witnessed a decreased of 1.5 percent. During FY2021 (July-March), 136.370 thousand metric tonnes of fish and fishery preparation valued, at US$ 303.606 million (Rs 48,945 million), were exported. Pakistan’s major buyers are China, Thailand, Malaysia, Middle East, Sri Lanka, and Japan. Export during FY2020 (July-March) were 130.148 thousand metric tonnes which earned US$ 317.305 million (Rs 49,527 million). The exports have, therefore, increased by 4.78 percent in quantity term whereas in US$ value terms it decreased by 4.32 percent. Government of Pakistan is undertaking several steps to improve the fisheries sector and its exports. A number of initiatives are being taken by federal and provincial fisheries departments including strengthening of extension services, introduction of new fishing methodologies, development of value added products, enhancement of per capita 41
76. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 consumption of fish , up gradation of socio-economic conditions of the fishermen community and a review of Deep Sea Fishing Policy of 2018. Export of Fish and Fishery Products to the European Union (EU) countries: Since resumption of exports to the EU countries, several consignments of fish, cuttlefish and shrimps have been sent by 02 companies to the EU. These were cleared successfully after 100 percent laboratory analysis at EU borders. For further enhancement of seafood export to EU countries, six more processing plants are in pipeline and their cases for approval are under process with EU authorities. Export of seafood to EU countries is given in Table 2.25: Table 2.25: Export of Seafood to EU Countries FY2021 (July-March) Fish Commodity / Quantity Value Country (MT) $ (000) Squids Quantity (MT) Belgium 314 750 Netherland 209 595 3 Spain 191 UK 979 3,528 22 Total 1,502 4,873 216 Source: Marine Fisheries Department Shrimp Value $ (000) 14 356 76 446 Quantity (MT) Value $ (000) 1,304 6,761 47 169 213 726 1,564 7,656 Crabs Total Quantity Value (MT) $ (000) 3 3 13 13 Quantity (MT) Value $ (000) 1,618 7,511 259 778 191 356 1,217 4,343 3,285 12,988 Box Item-III: Impact of COVID-19 and Other Shocks on Food Security and Livelihood of Rural Population Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), in collaboration with the Food Security & Agriculture Working Group (FSAWG) conducted a Food Security and Livelihood Assessment (FSLA) in 21 vulnerable districts in Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab provinces in Pakistan during October-November 2020, to better understand the food security and livelihood situation of the households in the areas affected by multiple shocks (Locust, COVID-19, monsoon rains/flooding etc.).In total, 4,700 households were surveyed during the assessment in the 21 rural districts of Pakistan (9 in Sindh, 10 in Balochistan and 2 in Punjab). As per the assessment results, overall around two-third of the surveyed households were moderately food insecure, whereas about two-fifth were severely food-insecure based on 12 months reference period. The analysis by provinces showed highest prevalence of moderate food insecurity in surveyed districts of Balochistan (70.7 percent) followed by surveyed districts of Sindh (58.2 percent) and two surveyed districts of Punjab (52.6 percent). Further, prevalence of severe food insecurity was also remained highest in Balochistan (49.1 percent) followed by Sindh (42.7 percent) and Punjab (25.4 percent). In terms of impact of COVID-19 on food insecurity, the analysis of FIES data shows that apparently COVID-19 has contributed to high prevalence of food insecurity as overall around half (48 percent) of the surveyed households were moderately food insecure because of COVID-19, whereas one-third were severely food-insecure. Provincial analysis depicts highest prevalence of moderate food insecurity because of COVID-19 in Balochistan (60 percent) followed by Sindh (45 percent) and Punjab (27 percent). Whereas severe food insecurity due to COVID-19 was also highest in Balochistan (38 percent) followed by Sindh (34 percent) and Punjab (14 percent). In contrast, prevalence of food insecurity (due to COVID-19) is slightly lower among households with agriculture based livelihood sources than in other two groups of households. Further, the analysis by livelihood sources shows slightly higher prevalence of food insecurity (general) among surveyed households who earn their income/livelihood from agriculture based activities, than those which earn livelihood/income from non-agriculture wage labour and other sources. Though no significant 42
77. Agriculture difference was found in prevalence of food insecurity across the households with three livelihood groups Overall , around two-fifth (43 percent) of the surveyed households reported their household livelihood/income was severely affected by locust infestation followed by (26 percent) moderately affected and remaining (31 percent) slightly/not affected. Provinces-wise surveyed households reported their livelihood/income affected by locust, severely (27 percent in Sindh, 69 percent in Punjab and 53 percent in Balochistan) and moderately (32 percent in Sindh, 11 percent in Punjab and 24 percent in Balochistan). In case of impact of rains/flooding on household livelihood/income, 37 percent of the surveyed households reported were severely affected followed by moderately affected (26 percent), whereas 37 percent slightly/not affected. Across the provinces, 36 percent in Sindh, 37 percent in Punjab and 39 percent in Balochistan reported severely affected whereas 29 percent in Sindh, 28 percent in Punjab and 20 percent in Balochistan reported moderately affected. Furthermore, 31 percent of the surveyed households reported their household livelihood/income was severely affected by COVID-19/lockdown followed by 30 percent moderately affected and 39 percent slightly/not affected. Across the provinces, 25 percent surveyed households in Sindh, 13 percent in Punjab and 40 percent in Balochistan reported severely affected, whereas moderate effect of COVID19/lockdown was reported by 37 percent surveyed households in Sindh, 21 percent in Punjab and 26 percent in Balochistan. More than half of the surveyed households (53 percent) reported reduction in their income due to COVID-19/lockdown; 54 percent of the surveyed households in Sindh, 41 percent in Punjab, and 55 percent in Balochistan. Source: FAO, Pakistan Way Forward: Agriculture sector has a strong linkage with food security and growth of other sectors of economy. The present government has assigned high priority to growth of agriculture sector on sustainable basis and is implementing the most appropriate policies to achieve the desired outcome. The government’s Rabi/Kharif packages for growth of agriculture will further improve its output and trickle down to farmers. The emphasis is on the use of better quality seed, and modern technologies to ameliorate agriculture outlook and food security. 43
78.                              
79. Chapter 3 Manufacturing and Mining A robust manufacturing sector promotes domestic production , exports and generates employment, hence stimulates the overall growth of an economy. In Pakistan, manufacturing sector contributes 12.79 percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the sector employs 16.1 percent of the country's labor force. Manufacturing sector consists of three sub-sectors: Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), Small Scale Manufacturing (SSM) and Slaughtering. Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) is a measure of LSM performance with 70.33 weight in overall LSM and derived from the Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06. Similarly, Small Scale Manufacturing (SSM) information is also based on the survey conducted in 2006-07. It covers industrial and household units engaged in manufacturing activity having less than ten employees. While slaughtering sector performance is estimated through a methodology which measures the value addition in output of the sector. Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) at 9.73 percent of GDP dominates the overall manufacturing sector, accounting for 76.1 percent of the sectoral share followed by Small Scale Manufacturing, which accounts for 2.12 percent of total GDP and 16.6 percent sectoral share. The third component, slaughtering, accounts for 0.94 percent of GDP with 7.4 percent sectoral share. 3.1 FY2020: A Synoptic Presentation Globally 2020 has been undeniably the most turbulent year. The outbreak of the pandemic triggered a widespread global shut down halting major economic activities that depressed demand and disrupted supply chains. Manufacturing sector, being not an exception, was one of the hardest-hit segments from COVID-19. Government had already adopted stabilization measures in FY2019 i.e., contractionary fiscal/monetary policy and market-based exchange rate, to cure the macroeconomic imbalances in the country. Nevertheless, external imbalances were eased but with some short-term repercussions, specifically in industrial sector. However, FY2020 emerged with some positive notes following the stabilization phase. Negative growth rates were narrowing down. Textile, the highly weighted sector, started inching up along with the improvement in chemicals and leather sectors. Until February 2020, this nascent recovery kept going (Fig. 3.1).
80. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Fig 3 .1: Pre-and Post-COVID Growth Rates of Major Secotrs during FY2020 Mar-Jun Jul-Feb 6.10 8.51 15.84 6.72 0.40 5.07 2.90 3.21 10.61 20.00 15.00 3.99 5.00 0.00 Leather Products Fertilizers No-Metallic Mineral Food&Beverages 1.07 Textile 0.22 10.00 Chemicals 5.00 10.00 Nonetheless, this process was suspended due to the measures taken to control the spread of COVID-19. The mobility restrictions affected the industry, especially laborintensive sectors. Moreover, manufacturing sector is highly dependent on imported raw material which was adversely affected due to international supply chain disruptions especially in US and China. Such a situation brought the manufacturing activities to a standstill, derailing the entire economy. Domestic lockdowns further aggravated the situation. Stung by the pandemic, LSM plunged to 41 percent in April 2020 registering its lowest historical level. This further dragged down the LSM and Jul-Jun FY2020 witnessed a steep decline of 9.8 percent, causing macroeconomic instability. Out of 15 subsectors, only 3 sectors observed positive growth during FY2020. Fertilizer remained somewhat insulated as its demand remained intact due to lesser impact of lockdown on agriculture. Moreover, fertilizer units are mainly in rural areas where lockdown restrictions were at ease to some extent. Conversely, textile dipped by 10.4 percent during FY2020. This sector is highly labor-intensive and most exposed to COVID-19 lockdowns. Food Beverages & Tobacco, Automobile, Non-Metallic Mineral Product and Coke & Petroleum Products also decreased by 2.13, 44.5, 2.16 and 20.1 percent, respectively. Thus, adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been particularly strong in manufacturing sector which also hampered the pre-COVID growth trajectory. 3.2 Large Scale Manufacturing during FY2021 Despite the concerns raised by COVID-19, manufacturing sector remained sound and resilient during FY2021on the back of well in time government initiatives. Government’s thoughtful decision to resume the business activities and adoption of smart lockdown boosted the business sentiments and economy gained traction after witnessing a hefty decline in FY2020. Targeted fiscal and monetary incentives accompanied by related support packages helped speed up the economic recovery. Situation has further ameliorated by depreciation of US dollar against Rupee and launch of COVID-19 vaccine. 46
81. Manufacturing and Mining 10 Fig-3 .2: LSM Growth (%) Jul-Mar 8.7 7.6 8 6.7 6.2 6 3.5 4 0.9 2 0.6 9.0 5.7 3.4 2.8 1.5 0 -2 -2.3 -4 -5.1 FY2020 FY2019 FY2018 FY2017 FY2016 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011 FY2010 FY2008 FY2007 -8 FY2009 -6.1 FY2021 -6 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics During July-March FY2021, manufacturing sector bounced back and LSM posted 9.0 percent growth while there was 5.1 percent contraction in the same period last year (Fig-3.2). The LSM expansion is broad based, reflecting production increase in major manufacturing sectors. This is the highest period wise growth since FY2007 supported by promising performance of Textile, Food Beverages & Tobacco and Automobile. Prime Minister construction package has also supported well all other allied industries such as increased cement dispatches and iron and steel production. Fig 3.3: LSM Growth Rates (%) Y-o-Y 25 FY2019 FY2020 22 FY2021 20 14 15 10 5 8 6 1 0 0 -5 -10 -6 -5 -6 3 3 -5 10 11 9 7 5 1 -6 -1 -4 -2 0 -6 -7 -12 -15 -22 -20 -25 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics On year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, LSM is exhibiting positive trajectory since July FY2021 which indicates that government's proactive role has not even catered the pandemic adversities rather made LSM to outperform its pre-COVID level. LSM has increased by 22.4 percent in March FY2021 against 21.7 percent decline in the same month last year which was the time when pandemic had started hitting business activities (Fig. 3.3). It is encouraging to note that Y-o-Y performance of LSM is improving as compared to 47
82. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 previous years as well . Month-on-month (M-o-M) performance has also been satisfactory as LSM showed 2.9 percent average growth during current fiscal year. Briefly, manufacturing sector has been a major contributor in sustaining growth rate during FY2021. Box-I: Monthly Production trends of major Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) items during JulyMarch 2020-21 as compared to the corresponding period July-March 2019-20 350,000 Cotton Yarn M.Tonnes Sugar M.Tonnes 2,500,000 300,000 6,000 Cigarettes Mil. Nos. 5,000 2,000,000 250,000 4,000 200,000 1,500,000 150,000 1,000,000 3,000 2,000 100,000 500,000 50,000 0 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY20 130,000 1,000 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY20 FY21 Vegetable Ghee Thousand Litre 125,000 500,000 120,000 400,000 115,000 300,000 110,000 200,000 105,000 100,000 100,000 0 FY20 FY21 High Speed Diesel Thousand Litre 600,000 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY21 Liquid/Syrups Thousand Litre 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY20 25,000 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY21 Jeeps and Cars Nos FY20 FY20 500,000 FY21 Billets/Ingots M.Tonnes 450,000 5,000 20,000 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY21 Tractors Nos 6,000 0 400,000 4,000 350,000 15,000 300,000 3,000 250,000 10,000 200,000 2,000 5,000 150,000 100,000 1,000 50,000 0 0 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY20 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY21 FY20 FY21 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY20 FY21 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 3.3 Group Wise Analysis of LSM Group wise growth of LSM during the period of July-March FY2021 versus July-March FY2020 is given in Table 3.1. 48
83. Manufacturing and Mining Table 3 .1: Group wise growth of LSM for the Period of July-March 2020-21 Vs July-March 2019-20 S % Change (July-March) Groups Weights # 2019-20 2020-21 1 Textile 20.915 -2.58 5.90 2 Food, Beverages & Tobacco 12.370 -1.69 11.73 3 Coke & Petroleum Products 5.514 -17.54 12.71 4 Pharmaceuticals 3.620 -5.29 12.57 5 Chemicals 1.717 11.35 11.65 6 Automobiles 4.613 -37.66 23.38 7 Iron & Steel Products 5.392 -7.96 1.66 8 Fertilizers 4.441 5.81 5.69 9 Electronics 1.963 -15.58 -20.77 10 Leather Products 0.859 6.50 -38.26 11 Paper & Board 2.314 4.30 -0.60 12 Engineering Products 0.400 -7.28 -25.53 13 Rubber Products 0.262 6.83 -12.92 14 Non-Metallic Mineral Products 5.364 1.87 24.31 15 Wood Products 0.588 -20.67 -45.77 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Textile sector has the highest weight of 20.91 in Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) thus having a significant impact on overall performance of LSM. Textile production has increased by 5.90 percent during July-March FY2021 against 2.58 percent decline in the same period last year. Major jump originated from woolen segment production that may be associated with the projections of early onset of winter season by international agencies. Likewise, pandemic has proved as a blessing in disguise for garments manufacturers as there is a flurry of export orders from European and American markets for Pakistan's garment sector due to the severe impact of COVID-19 on our regional countries. Cotton yarn production and cotton cloth have also contributed well as they grew by 3.1 and 3 percent, respectively. Government has facilitated the sector i.e., tax refunds and duty drawbacks, which is bearing fruits and this sector has started picking up the pace. Food Beverages & Tobacco has the second highest weight of 12.37 in QIM. This sector has bounced back with 11.73 percent increase as compared to 1.69 percent decline last year. Sugar, cigarette and wheat milling came up with significant growth which boosted the overall sector. Sugar production increased due to early crushing of sugarcane owing to the domestic shortage and subsequent need for imports. Domestic cigarette producers were 1400 Fig 3.4: Wheat and Grain Milling (Million tonnes) FY2020 1200 FY2021 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 49
84. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 provided conducive environment via keeping the last year ’s FED intact and continued fight against smuggled alternatives which increased the cigarette production. Further, government has increased the wheat support price and subsidized the inputs which pushed up wheat production and wheat milling units. However, cooking oil and vegetable ghee production remained subdued due to the price hike of a key input, palm oil. Coke and Petroleum industry production expanded by 12.71 percent against double digit contraction of 17.54 percent last year. Production of petrol, furnace oil and diesel grew significantly as demand spurred from resumption in transportation activities accompanied by robust sales of automobiles. Comparatively lower prices of retail fuels during the period pushed up the petroleum sales by 14 percent hence encouraged the petroleum production. In the wake of gas shortages, furnace oil use for electricity generation has increased the fuel’s demand. Besides, FBR crackdown against smuggled petroleum products led to increase in demand for domestic products. All these factors provided cushion to the dwindling petroleum industry. Automobile sector witnessed a broad-based growth of 23.38 percent against 37.66 contraction last year. Reduced interest rates, stable exchange rate and huge investments by the new and existing players are having positive impact on this segment as well as enhancing competition. Car production and sale increased by 20.1 and 31.5 percent, respectively. Trucks and buses production and sale declined by 7.5 and 1.5 percent, respectively. Total tractors production and sale remained promising and recorded 57.5 and 57.1 percent growth, respectively. Automobile sector is still working below its potential thus offering a lucrative opportunity for manufacturing sector. Iron & Steel production inched up by 1.66 percent during July-March FY2021 as compared to 7.96 percent dip in the same period last year. Billets/Ingots, mainly used in construction industry, grew by 37.2 as compared to 14.6 percent decline last year. Government has announced multiple incentives for construction sector which have already started bearing fruits. However, H/C.R.Sheets/Strips/Coils/plates having the highest weight in iron & steel products declined by 22.5 percent. Lower demand of these flat steel products is mainly driven by drop in electronics production. Fertilizers production grew by 5.69 percent as compared to 5.81 percent growth during last year. This performance is mainly attributed to the Nitrogen Fertilizers which increased by 4.13 percent. Government’s fertilizer subsidies incentivized manufacturers to expand capacity and upgrade plants by offering gas at lower rates. That attracted investments in this sector and enhanced local urea production capacity. Improved farm economics, lower input costs and better support prices offered by the government had supported this industry. The Electronics exhibited lacklustre performance and plunged to 20.77 percent against 15.58 percent slump in corresponding period. Electric motors, bearing the highest weight in this segment, have so far been responsible for overall electronics dip. During the period under review, electric motors dived by 31.8 percent and dragged down the whole electronics industry. Electric fans, TV sets and deep freezes also witnessed decline as pandemic has affected the spending patterns and majority is focusing on essentials. 50
85. Manufacturing and Mining Pharmaceuticals witnessed a double digit growth of 12 .57 percent during July-March FY2021 against 5.29 percent contraction last year. Panic buying of medicines and escalated prices contributed to this encouraging situation. Chemicals grew by 11.65 percent as compared to 11.35 percent increase last year. Non-metallic Mineral Products surged by 24.31 percent as compared to 1.87 percent increase last year. This was mainly driven by 17 percent jump in cement production. Total cement dispatches during July-March FY2021 increased to 43.32 million tonnes (mt) from 37.03 mt last year. Engineering products plunged to 25.53 percent as compared to 7.28 percent decline last year. This drag mainly came from sewing machines and bicycles production which declined by 43 and 59 percent, respectively. Leather products decreased by 38.26 percent during July-March FY2021 as compared to 6.50 percent increase last year. USA and EU are amongst top importers of Pakistani leather. Due to complete/partial lockdown situation in these countries, leather demand has slowed down. Paper and Board production decreased by 0.60 percent as compared to 4.30 percent increase last year. Rubber Products declined by 12.92 percent during July-March FY2021 as compared to 6.83 percent growth in the same period last year. Wood Products declined by 45.77 percent as compared to 20.67 percent decline last year. A major plywood unit is closed from many months causing disruption in supply. Selected items of Large-Scale Manufacturing are given in Table 3.2. Table-3.2: Production of selected industrial items of Large-Scale Manufacturing S# Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Cotton Yarn Cotton Cloth Sugar Tea Blended Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Cigarettes Deep Freezers Refrigerators Phosphate Fertilizer Nitrogenous Fertilizer Cement Jeep & Cars Upper Leather Liquids/Syrups Tablets Petroleum products Unit (tonnes) (000 sq.m.) (tonnes) (tonnes) (tonnes) (tonnes) (Million No) (Nos.) (Nos.) (N tonnes) (N tonnes) (000 tonnes) (Nos.) (000 sq.m.) (000 Litres) (000 Nos.) (000 Litres) Weights 12.9646 7.1858 3.5445 0.38 2.23 1.14 2.13 0.1622 0.2394 0.3996 4.0411 5.299 2.8183 0.3924 1.1361 1.9143 5.4096 July-March 2019-20 2020-21 2,498,515 763,115 4,816,448 100,399 331,234 1,101,461 33,521 72,819 672,659 455,513 2,352,979 30,063 91,918 19,429 68,781 20,666,548 9,412,064 2,577,675 786,042 5,618,976 100,018 330,759 1,064,326 39,473 68,947 928,170 545,612 2,450,066 37,620 114,627 13,330 86,212 20,380,940 10,608,419 % % Point Change Contribution 3.17 3.00 16.66 -0.38 -0.14 -3.37 17.76 -5.32 37.99 19.78 4.13 25.14 24.71 -31.39 25.34 -1.38 12.71 0.55 0.25 1.32 0.00 -0.01 -0.05 0.27 0.00 0.10 0.12 0.22 2.96 0.54 -0.17 0.29 -0.05 0.66 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 51
86. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 3 .4 Industrialization and Role of Government (FY2021) Industrialization plays a vital role in the economic development of countries as it increases employment and ensures better utilization of domestic resources. Government of Pakistan has been cognizant of the importance of industry amid recent health-cum-economic crisis and has taken proactive measures to promote and develop it. Some of these are mentioned below:  Government is providing a series of subsidies for electricity and gas to exportoriented industries (textiles, leather, carpets, surgical and sports goods). Power price has been fixed at US$ 0.07/unit for July-August FY2021 and US$ 0.09/unit for September-June FY2021. Gas tariff fixed at US$ 0.065/mmbtu for the whole FY2021. Power Division has allocated Rs 20 billion subsidy for this purpose.  Government has taken a tremendous step by approving Industrial Support Package for industrial consumers of DISCOs and K-Electric. According to the package, peak hours have been abolished along with reduced tariffs on additional electricity consumption. Power Division has allocated Rs 22 billion to cover this tariff differential. This package has given impetus to industrial sector that is driving the economic revival and posting robust growth.  Rs 1.24 trillion stimulus package was introduced to support economy during pandemic. According to the package, Rs 200 billion has been allocated to support business and economy. As of March 2021, Rs 146 billion has been disbursed including Rs 100 billion refunds to exporters, which is an encouraging sentiment for export-oriented industries.  Government has removed Regulatory Duty (RD) and Additional Custom Duty (ACD) on various items especially raw materials by passing Rs 1.13 billion incentive to private sector as: a. Removal of 164 tariff lines of Textile sector b. Removal of 5 percent RD on cotton yarn import and tariff reduction to 5 percent from 10 percent c. Removal of ACD on 152 tariff lines on raw material used in manufacturing sector  Government has released Rs 7.5 billion during Jul-Mar FY2021 under Duty Drawback Scheme of Textile and Non-Textile Sector, which is supporting industry.  Pakistan exports have been liberalized under China-Pak FTA-II. Textile, prepared food, leather, chemicals and engineering goods are among the top priority items. Increased demand of these products will boost LSM.  Government has announced a special package for construction sector which includes amnesty scheme, tax exemptions and Rs 36 billion subsidy (for 10 years) for construction under Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme. After witnessing enormous effects on construction and its 40 allied industries government has further extended tax amnesty and fixed tax regime till June 2021 and December 2021, respectively.  Cement industry has been given a special attention by federal government considering its wide-ranging impact. Transaction limit for informal cement buyers 52
87. Manufacturing and Mining has been increased from 50 thousand to 100 thousand rupees . Reduction of Federal Excise Duty (FED) has been the biggest incentive as it slashed to Rs 1.5/kg from Rs 2/kg w.e.f 1st July 2020. This translates into a cut of Rs 25 per 50kg cement bag.  Government has granted massive tax exemptions (FED and ACD) to facilitate Electric Vehicles (EVs). There will be only 1 percent tax on import of EV parts while import of plant and machinery for EVs manufacturing would be duty-free. It is a forwardlooking step needed to deal with climate concerns from transport sector emissions with rapidly rising vehicle use. Further, it would help reducing overall oil import bill and operational cost of vehicles for consumers.  Mobile Device Manufacturing policy has been approved to promote local manufacturing and assembly of mobile handsets. Pakistan enjoys low cost labor advantage, a reasonably large home market having more than 178 million subscribers which have increased approximately 1 percent per month during last one year, 83.3 percent tele-density and efficient Device Identification Registration & Blocking System in place, which make Pakistan an attractive market for mobile assembly. Government is all set to make mobile phone manufacturing industry larger than automobile in terms of turnover in few years and employment is expected to grow manifold. Box-I: Measures taken by State Bank of Pakistan to boost Manufacturing Sector during July-March FY2021 COVID-19 Specific Refinance Schemes  Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) TERF was launched to stimulate investment both new and expansion/Balancing, Modernization and Replacement (BMR) of existing units. Financing under the facility is available for all sectors across the board except power sector. Maximum loan limit per project is Rs 5 billion @5% p.a. As of April 01, 2021 Rs 690 billion has been requested under TERF against which Rs 435.7 billion has been approved. The scheme has been ended in March 31, 2021.  SBP Rozgar Scheme The Scheme aimed at preventing layoff by financing wages and salaries of employees (permanent, contractual, daily wagers as well as outsourced) for six months (April-September 2020) for all kind of businesses except for Government entities, public sector enterprises, autonomous bodies and deposit taking financial institutions. Financing under this scheme was provided @3% p.a. for taxpayers and 5% p.a. for nontax payers. Under this scheme, Government of Pakistan provided 60% risk sharing for SMEs with sales turnover up to Rs 800 million and 40% risk sharing for small corporates with sales turnover up to Rs 2 billion. Under this scheme, more than Rs 212 billion has been disbursed. The scheme helped to prevent layoff of 1,677,806 employees of 2,683 businesses, wherein 382,673 employees of SMEs and small corporates were prevented from layoffs.  Refinance Facility for Combating COVID-19 (RFCC) RFCC enhanced the capacity of health sector of the country to deal with health emergency. The financing can be availed by hospitals/medical centers and manufacturers of masks/protective dresses/testing kits/hospital beds/ventilators & other items. Maximum loan limit for setting up of new hospitals is Rs 1,000 million while end user rate is 3% p.a. Tenor of the facility is 5 years. As of March 25, 2021, Rs 16.7 billion has been requested under RFCC against which Rs 10.5 billion has been approved. 53
88. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Refinance Schemes for Export Promotions To facilitate export-oriented industries during COVID-19 , SBP introduced some relaxations under Export Finance Scheme (EFS) and Long-Term Financing Facility (LTFF). Six months additional period was allowed for making shipment/performance under EFS with a 1.5 times export performance (2 times earlier). Eligibility criteria for availing LTFF relaxed from US$ 5 million or 50% exports of total sales to US$ 4 million or 40% exports of total sales from Jan-Sep 2020. Housing Finance Mandatory Targets for Housing Finance  SBP has assigned mandatory targets to banks requiring them to increase their housing and construction of building loan portfolios to at least 5 percent of their private sector advances by the end of Dec 2021. Banks that fulfill or exceed their quarterly financing target are incentivized to maintain a lower Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) while banks that do not meet the target, will have to maintain additional CRR. Because of these targets, the housing and construction finance of banks has witnessed an increase of 30% in less than a year.  Mark-up Subsidy Scheme for Housing Finance With vision to promote affordable housing and home ownership among low to middle income strata, State Bank has introduced Government’s mark-up Subsidy Scheme for housing Finance. Under this facility subsidized financing is provided to individuals, who currently do not own a house, for construction of houses or purchase of a new house. Government has allocated Rs 36 billion for payment of mark-up subsidy for financing over a period of 10 years. Source: State Bank of Pakistan 3.5 Textile Industry Textile is the most important manufacturing sector of Pakistan and has the longest production chain, with inherent potential for value addition at each stage of processing, from cotton to ginning, spinning, fabric, dyeing and finishing, made-ups and garments. This sector contributes nearly one-fourth of industrial value-added and provides employment to about 40 percent of industrial labor force. Barring seasonal and cyclical fluctuations, textiles products have maintained an average share of about 60 percent in national exports. The export performance during the period under review is given in Table 3.3. Table 3.3: Export of Pakistan Textiles 2015-16 (US$ millions) 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Cotton & Cotton Textiles 13139 12168 Synthetic Textiles 330.584 287.894 Sub-Total Textiles 13469.584 12455.89 Wool & Woolen Textiles 119.448 97.68 Total Textiles 13589.032 12553.57 Pakistan`s Total Exports 23667.3 20786.5 Textile as %age of Export 57.41 60.39 Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization 12205 187.587 12392.587 78.506 12471.09 20422.236 61.06 12964.052 297.809 13261.861 67.265 13329.126 22979.325 58.00 12157.555 314.768 12472.323 54.211 12526.534 21393.860 58.55 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 11031.952 269.204 11301.156 54.322 11355.478 18687.537 60.76 3.5.1 Ancillary Textile Industry The ancillary textile industry includes cotton spinning, cotton cloth, cotton yarn, cotton fabric, fabric processing, home textiles, towels, hosiery, knitwear and readymade 54
89. Manufacturing and Mining garments . These components are being produced both in the large-scale organized sector as well as in the unorganized cottage / small and medium units. The performance of these various ancillary textile industries is illustrated as under: i. Cotton Spinning Sector The spinning sector is the backbone in the ranking of textile production. At present, as per record of Textiles Commissioner’s Organization (TCO), it comprises 517 textile units (40 composite units and 477 spinning units) with 13.414 million spindles and 198,801 rotors installed and 11.338 million spindles and 126,583 rotors in operation with capacity utilization of 84.55 percent and 63.67 percent, respectively. ii. Cloth Sector Problems of the power loom sector evolve mainly around poor technology and scarcity of quality yarn. Looms installed in cotton textile mills are 9,084 and looms worked were 6,384. The production of cotton cloth has increased by 3.02 percent while the exports in term of quantity decreased by 56.3 percent whereas in value term decreased by 8.28 percent. Table 3.4: Production and Export of Clothing Sector Production July-March 2020-21 Mill Sector (000. Sq. Mtrs.) 786,042 Non Mill Sector (000. Sq. Mtrs.) 6,103,958 Total 6,890,000 Cotton Cloth Exports Quantity (M.SqMtr.) 875.51 Value (M.US$) 1419.18 Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization July-March 2019-20 763,115 5,925,060 6,688,175 % Change 2003.23 1547.38 -56.30 -8.28 3.00 3.02 3.02 iii. Textile Made-Up Sector Being value added segment of textile industry made-up sector comprises different subgroups namely towels, tents & canvas, cotton bags, bed-wear, hosiery, knitwear & readymade garments including fashion apparels. Export performance of made-up sector during the period July-March FY2021 is presented in Table 3.5. Table 3.5: Export of Textile Made-Ups (July-March) 2020-21 Hosiery Knitwear Quantity (M.Doz) 126.67 Value (M.US$) 2780.88 Readymade Garments Quantity (M.Doz) 27.68 Value (M.US$) 2268.56 Towels Quantity (M Kgs) 159.02 Value (M.US$) 692.11 Tents/Canvas Quantity (M Kgs) 32.66 Value (M.US$) 89.15 (July-March) 2019-20 % Change 87.34 2299.80 45.03 20.92 43.21 2170.34 -35.94 4.53 144.40 592.37 10.12 16.84 30.21 72.21 8.09 23.46 55
90. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 3 .5: Export of Textile Made-Ups (July-March) 2020-21 Bed Wears Quantity (000 MT) 343.47 Value (M.US$) 2052.26 Other Made up Value (M.US$) 565.49 Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization (July-March) 2019-20 % Change 338.65 1761.65 1.43 16.50 492.36 14.85 iv. Hosiery Industry The industry sustains directly livelihood Table 3.6: Export of Knitwear of 210,000 skilled workers and 490,000 (July-March) (July-March) % 2020-21 2019-20 Change unskilled workers. Another 350,000 126.67 87.34 45.03 people benefit in allied cottage industries. Quantity (M.Doz) Thus, the industry provides directly and Value 2780.88 2299.80 20.92 indirectly sustenance to well over a (M.US$) million people. Knitwear exports consists Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization of knitted and processed fabrics knitted garments; knitted bed sheets, socks etc. The export performance of knitwear during the period under review is given in Table 3.6. v. Readymade Garment Industry Readymade garment industry has Table 3.7: Export of Readymade Garments emerged as one of the important small(July-March) (July-March) % 2020-21 2019-20 scale industries in Pakistan. Its products Change have huge demand both at home and Quantity 27.68 43.21 -35.94 (M.Doz) abroad. The local requirements of readymade garments are almost fully met Value 2268.56 2170.34 4.53 by this industry. Garment industry is also (M.US$) a good source of providing employment Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization opportunities to a large number of people at a very low capital investment. Exports decreased from 43.2 million dozen to 27.7 million dozen in various types of readymade garments worth US$ 2268.56 million during July-March FY2021 as compared to US$ 2170.34 million during July-March FY2020, thus showing 35.94 percent decrease in term of quantity while 4.53 percent increase in terms of value. vi. Towel Industry There are about 10,000 towel looms including shuttle and shuttle-less in the country in both organized and unorganized sector. This industry is dominantly export based and its growth depends on export outlets. The existing towels manufacturing factories are 56 Table 3.8: Export Performance of Towel sector (July-March) (July-March) % 2020-21 2019-20 Change Quantity (M Kgs) 159.03 144.41 10.12 Value (M.US$) 692.11 592.37 16.84 Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization
91. Manufacturing and Mining upgraded to produce higher value towels . Export performance of towel sector during the period is given in Table 3.8. vii. Canvas The production capacity of this sector is Table 3.9: Export Performance of Tent and more than 100 million Sq. meters. This Canvas Sector sector is also known as raw cotton (July-March) (July-March) % 2020-21 2019-20 Change consuming sector. This value-added sector has great potential for export. 60 Quantity 32.66 30.21 8.09 percent of its production is exported (M.Kgs) while 40 percent is locally consumed. In Value 89.15 72.21 23.46 term of quantity during July-March (M.US$) FY2021 export performance of tent and Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization canvas related items was recorded at 32.7 million Kgs as compared to 30.2 million Kgs during the same period last year thus showing increase of 8.09 percent. In value term it increased by 23.46 percent. viii. Synthetic Textile Fabrics Artificial silk such as Synthetic fibers Table 3.10: Export Performance of Synthetic Nylon, Polyester, Acrylic and Polyolefin Textile Fabrics (July-March) (July-March) % dominate the market. There are currently 2020-21 2019-20 Change five major producers of synthetic fibers in Pakistan, with a total capacity of 636,000 Quantity 122.71 378.57 -67.59 tons per annum. Production cost of (Th.Sq.Mtrs) artificial silk is less than silk, yet it Value 269.20 261.16 3.08 resembles to silk. Currently, artificial silk (M.US$) capacity in country is about 9,000 looms. Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization During July-March FY2021, synthetic textile fabrics worth US$ 269.20 million were exported as compared to US$ 261.16 million last year which is showing an increase of 3.08 percent. In Quantitative terms the exports of synthetic textile decreased by 67.6 percent. ix. Woolen Industry The main products manufactured by the Woolen Industry are carpets and rugs. The exports of carpets during the period July-March FY2021are given in the Table 3.11. x. Jute Industry Table 3.11: Exports of Carpets and Rugs (Woolen) (July-March) (July-March) % 2020-21 2019-20 Change Quantity 1.08 1.30 -16.51 (Th.Sq.Mtr) Value 54.32 48.68 11.57 (M.US$) Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization The main products manufactured by the Jute Industries are Jute Sacks and Hessian cloth, which are used for packing and handling of Wheat, Rice and Food Grains. The installed and working capacity of jute industry is given in the Table 3.12. 57
92. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 3 .12: Installed and working capacity of Jute (July-March) 2020-21 Total No. of Units 10 Spindles Installed 25060 Spindles Worked 21172 Looms Installed 1134 Looms Worked 885 Source: Textile Commissioner's Organization 3.6 (July-March) 2019-20 10 24712 22545 1102 930 % Change 0% 1.41 -6.1 2.9 -4.5 Other Industries 3.6.1 Automobile Industry Despite negative impact of COVID-19 closure and lockdowns, the industrial production of the automobile sector has shown positive trend in all segments, during July-April FY2021. However, for the second consecutive year, the production figures remained relatively depressed, inter-alia, due to new taxes like FED, ACD, minimum value addition taxes that were imposed during FY2019. These policy measures coupled with pandemic continued to grip the industry with uncertainty. Auto industry lost its momentum in FY2020 and nosedived to half of its size due to contractionary policies combined with escalating exchange rate. There was no respite during the current year also as COVID-19 related closures dented the industry. However, resumption in business activities and accommodative fiscal/monetary policies improved the scenario. The period July-April FY2021 has witnessed growth as compared to the previous period (Table 3.13). The path of recovery would continue in the ongoing fiscal year on revival of economic activity and low interest rates led by introduction of new car models and showing up of the latent demand. Market expansion is already taking place due to the confidence build up by the existing players as well as by new entrants. The government has so far granted greenfield status licenses to 21 new investors and approximately US$ 475 million actualized as six new manufacturing units already commenced their operations. Therefore, all projections cast a positive outlook for the industry. In case of passenger cars, the production and sales are up by 36.4 percent and 48.5 percent with 120,855 units and 126,679 units, respectively, as against, 88,628 units and 85,330 units produced and sold last year. This recovery stems from the latent demand that had gathered on account of dampened numbers in the previous year. For similar reasons, the production and the sales of light commercial vehicles (LCV) registered increase by 45.9 and 57.5 percent, respectively. Further, phenomenal increase of numbers in case of Jeeps is due to pleasant entry of Hyundai with significantly happy production and sales numbers. As more new investors would join, SUV 4x4 and 4x2 segment is likely to expand significantly, in time. Heavy Commercial Vehicle (HCV: trucks and buses) production and sale increased by 2.8 and 7.4 percent, respectively. In case of buses, production increased by 4.3 percent with 482 units produced while trucks’ production jumped by 2.6 percent with 2,802 units 58
93. Manufacturing and Mining produced . During the current year, a major HCV unit had some technical issues which caused relatively low growth than other segments. Farm tractor may be seen on the path of revival with production and the sales up by 65.2 and 62.2 percent, respectively. The sales during July-April FY2021 were 41,456 units against 25,562 units last year. This pleasant upward surge was due to ample support prices to the farmers and the policy of revival of construction sector. However, these numbers are not even close to the highest numbers this industry had achieved in the past which indicates an ample room to grow. The two/three wheelers sector also showed satisfactory recovery with production and the sales up by 33.5 and 34.0 percent, respectively. Two/three wheelers offer most economical public transport alternate for the lower income group, however, at the same time, it is extremely price sensitive. Massive exchange rate losses kicked off inflationary conditions resulting inevitable price increase. It may be mentioned that there has been steady growth in the two/three wheelers for the potential demand they have; however, it succumbed to the adverse macroeconomic happening during the previous year. Still, this sector offers most preferred means of transport and best alternative in the absence of public transport in the cities and thus holds a dependable and continued potential for growth in the coming years. The table 3.13 shows previous year’s comparative position of production and sales figures in auto industry (PAMA members) for the period July-April FY2021. Table 3.13: Production of Automobiles Category Installed Capacity 2019-20 (July-April) CAR 341,000 88,628 LCV 44,000 11,008 JEEP 5,000 3,290 BUS 5,000 462 TRUCK 28,500 2,732 TRACTOR 100,000 25,009 2/3 WHEELERS 2,500,000 1,188,921 Source: Pakistan Automotive Manufacturer Association (PAMA) No. of Units 2020-21 (July-April) 120,855 16,064 9,309 482 2,802 41,327 1,586,725 % Change 36.4 45.9 182.9 4.3 2.6 65.2 33.5 The auto sector constitutes about 7 percent to LSM, which accounts for the significant industrial output of the country. According to PBS, automobile recorded 23.4 percent upsurge during July-March FY2021. However, these numbers, to a great extent, fall short of installed capacities, accordingly, there would be inevitable proportionate cost push of products in wake of idle capacities. Given government support, removal of irritants is soon going to bear fruits in the wake of industrial expansion as many new investors have joined with commercial production while the existing players have already made huge investments and a lot more is in waiting. These investments by the new and the existing players are a testimony to confidence in our market, at home and abroad. Given the macroeconomic stability in the country and the extraneous factors not to go out of hand, latent demand would burst out and expansion of industry volumes is sure to take place. 59
94. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 3 .6.2 Fertilizer Industry Fertilizer is an important and costly input responsible for 30 to 50 percent increase in the crop productivity. The overall objective is sustainability and growth in agricultural sector that should match the growing population for food security and the promotion of economic growth. Since Fertilizer is related to food production, the growth of the fertilizer industry is evident and desired by all concerned. There are nine urea manufacturing plants, one DAP, three NP, four SSP, two CAN, one SOP and two plants of blended NPKs having a total production capacity of 9,172 thousand tonnes per annum. Total fertilizer production during July-March FY2021 was 6,602 thousand tonnes which was 7.94 percent more as compared to the corresponding time of the last year. This increase in fertilizer production is attributed to supply of gas to Pak Arab Fertilizer Plant from Mari field. Urea is main fertilizer having 70 percent share in total production. Installed production capacity of 6,307 thousand tonnes per annum is enough to meet local demand subject to the availability of uninterrupted gas and RLNG supply. Nutrient offtake during July-March FY2021 remained 3,925 thousand tonnes which was 15.2 percent more than the corresponding period of the previous year. Nitrogen and phosphate offtake were 2,835 and 1,035 thousand tonnes respectively whereas Potash offtake was 55 thousand tonnes. Offtake of Nitrogen during current fiscal year increased by 13.2 percent while offtake of Phosphate and Potash increased by 20 and 39 percent respectively as compared to corresponding time frame of the last year. Urea and DAP offtake remained 4,738 thousand tonnes and 1,848 thousand tonnes respectively. Urea offtake increased by 8.5 percent while DAP offtake increased by 15.8 percent as compared to the same period of the previous year. 3.6.3 Cement Industry Irrespective of the apprehensions caused by COVID-19, Pakistan’s cement industry has continued to grow on the back of well in time government initiatives. Construction activities by private sector accompanied by work at Bhasha and Dasu dams helped in increasing local cement consumption. The government has introduced an incentive package for the construction industry in April 2020, which stimulated the industry especially the private sector housing projects. Package included amnesty scheme, tax exemptions and Rs 36 billion subsidy for Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme. Further, banks were directed to increase construction sector loans to 5 percent of their total loan book and FED reduction on cement from Rs 2/kg to Rs 1.5/kg have given impetus to this industry. A significant increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)1 and Long-Term Financing Facility (LTFF)2 for construction sector also bodes well for the sector. Cement industry has posted the highest ever Y-o-Y growth of 44.6 percent in March FY2021 due to massive increase in domestic consumption as well as exports. Total 1 Net FDI in construction sector, increased by 84.5 percent during July-April FY2021 and reached at US$ 22.7 million. During July-April FY2021, Rs 3,519 million loan has been availed by construction sector against Rs 20 million retirement during the same period last year. 2 60
95. Manufacturing and Mining cement dispatches stood at 5 .381 mt as against 3.719 mt last year. Domestic consumption grew by 42 percent to 4.563 mt as compared to 3.213 mt in March FY2020. The export trend represented a substantial growth of 61.6 percent to 0.818 mt dispatches in March FY2021 as compared to 0.506 mt during last year. Northern Region Domestic consumption in the north grew by 38.6 percent in March FY2021, registering 3.809 mt dispatches as compared to 2.749 mt dispatches in the same month last year. Exports from north-based mills registered an enormous increase of 162.6 percent as the volumes increased from 0.106 mt in March FY2020 to 0.280 mt in March FY2021. Southern Region Domestic consumption in the south increased by 62.3 percent and reached to 0.753 mt in March FY2021 as compared to 0.464 mt in March FY2020. While exports from the region increased by 32.5 percent, from 0.400 mt in March FY2020 to 0.530 mt in March FY2021. 6.0 Fig 3.5: Cement Dispatches (Million tonnes) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 1.0 Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturer Association Source: Cumulative Dispatches Total local dispatches during July-March FY2021 increased by 18.3 percent to 36.2 mt from 30.6 mt last year. While total exports rose to 7.1 mt (10.9 percent increase) from 6.4 mt during the same period last year. According to the APCMA, local dispatches from the northern region increased by 17.7 percent while southern region dispatches surged by 21.3 percent during July-March FY2021. Exports from the north edged by 0.2 percent while south came up with 15.5 percent growth during the period. Cumulative dispatches (local & exports) posted a growth of 17 percent and reached to 43.325 mt during July-March FY2021 as compared to 37.035 mt in the corresponding period. 61
96. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 3 .14: Cement Production Capacity & Dispatches Years Production Capacity Local Capacity Utilization (%) Dispatches 2006-07 30.50 79.23 21.03 2007-08 37.68 80.14 22.58 2008-09 42.28 74.05 20.33 2009-10 45.34 75.46 23.57 2010-11 42.37 74.17 22.00 2011-12 44.64 72.83 23.95 2012-13 44.64 74.89 25.06 2013-14 44.64 76.79 26.15 2014-15 45.62 77.60 28.20 2015-16 45.62 85.21 33.00 2016-17 46.39 86.90 35.65 2017-18 48.66 94.31 41.15 2018-19 59.74 78.48 40.34 2019-20 63.63 75.14 39.97 July-March 2019-20 63.63 77.60 30.6 2020-21 69.26 83.41 36.2 3.23 7.72 10.98 10.65 9.43 8.57 8.37 8.14 7.20 5.87 4.66 4.75 6.54 7.85 (Million Tonnes) Total Dispatches 24.26 30.30 31.31 34.22 31.43 32.52 33.43 34.28 35.40 38.87 40.32 45.89 46.88 47.81 6.4 7.1 37.03 43.32 Exports Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) 3.7 Small and Medium Enterprises3 Globally, SMEs are considered an important pillar for poverty alleviation as they create jobs, increase standard of living and play critical role in ensuring equitable income distribution. In Pakistan, SME sector contributes an estimated 404 percent to GDP and it holds tremendous potential to create a positive impact on Pakistan’s economy. To enable SMEs in Pakistan to play their due role in economic development, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) has taken various initiatives towards fostering growth of SMEs through a broad service portfolio spread across various SME sectors and clusters. The organization has an all-encompassing mandate of fostering growth of the SME sector through its portfolio of services including business development services, infrastructure development through establishing common facility centers, industry support for productivity enhancement and energy efficiency, human capital development through its training programs and SME related projects with national and international development partners. SMEDA has been committed to support SMEs during COVID-19 and has launched a comprehensive program of online SME clinic & webinars, training sessions, helpdesks and virtual meetings with key public and private stakeholders to facilitate businesses in such a critical time. Key activities/achievements of SMEDA during July-March FY2021are as follows: 3 According to SME Policy 2007, any enterprise with up to 250 employees and up to Rs 250 million annual sales comes under Small and Medium Enterprises. 4 Source: SMEDA Annual Report 2019-20 62
97. Manufacturing and Mining Table 3 .15: SMEDA Over the Counter (OTC) Services Sr. No. Initiatives 1. SME Facilitation 2. Pre-feasibility Studies Development (New & Updated) 3. Investment Facilitation (RS Million) 4. Business Plans 5. Training Programs 6. Theme Specific Helpdesks 7. Cluster / District Profiles (New and Updated), Diagnostic / Value Chain Studies 8. SMEDA Web Portal (Download Statistics) 9. SME Observer 10. SMEDA Newsletter July-March FY2021 4,778 70 301.34 9 186 81 18 125,046 1 Issue 3 Issues National SME Policy Government of Pakistan acknowledges the significance of SME sector and is making efforts to provide a level playing field for businesses by devising policies that are favorable for SMEs. Prime Minister has constituted National Coordination Committee (NCC) on SME development on 12th August 2020 with the objective to facilitate development and promotion of SMEs in the country. In the second meeting of NCC, held on 8th October 2020, Prime Minister approved National SME Policy Action Plan 2020 to provide much needed support to SMEs. The Plan 2020 focuses on key areas including SME definition, access to finance, business development services, skills & human resource, technology, market access, infrastructure and entrepreneurship and provides extensive recommendations in each of the aforementioned area. Key recommendations / initiatives proposed under the plan include simplification of rules, regulations and taxation regime, programs for SME access to credit, SME quota in public procurement, simplification of SECP procedures, facilitation to participate in international fairs and exhibitions on subsidized rates and developing SME data bank to bridge information gap. SMEDA One Window (SOW): A Step towards Creating a Hassle Free Business Environment for SMEs SMEDA has launched a program, SMEDA One Window (SOW) that aims to link SMEs and startups with national and provincial regulatory authorities for compliance with regulations especially at the start-up stage. The SOW model is based on developing an entrepreneurial ecosystem by identifying regulatory requirements, designing services that fit all types of enterprises, offering subsidies in the service fee and providing guidance on requirements according to the business ownership structure. It consolidates current federal and provincial government procedures into simplified processes through one window service that directly benefits enterprises that fall under key ownership/legal structure including sole proprietorship, partnership registration with registrar of firms, limited liability partnership and private limited company registration with SECP. Smaller enterprises, which suffer disproportionately from the burden of compliance, will also be beneficiaries of this process of administrative simplification of starting and running the business. Since launch of SOW in September 63
98. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 2020 , around 72 applications have been received while Letter of Intent (LOI) has been issued to 58 applicants. Box-II: SMEDA’s Support to SMEs during Pandemic  Impact Assessment of COVID-19 on SMEs: COVID-19 pandemic has proved a catalyst for already dwindling situation of economy in general and SMEs in particular. An online survey titled “Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs” was carried out by SMEDA to assess the effect of COVID-19 on businesses and simultaneously identify the issues that SMEs were facing at the peak of COVID-19 pandemic. The survey served as a basis for the Government of Pakistan to design an electricity relief package titled ‘Prime Minister’s Relief Package for Small Businesses &Industries’ and Mazdoor ka Ehsaas Program. A follow-up survey was launched in collaboration with Mahbub-ul-Haq Research Centre (MHRC), LUMS which was conducted from August till October 2020, after the lockdown had been lifted. The survey is now complete and the report is under review for publication.  Online Survey: In order to assess the adaptability and evolution of SMEs in the current situation, SMEDA collaborated with the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and Asian Productivity Organization (APO) to conduct an online survey in Pakistan, in which, 236 SMEs participated. ADBIAPO also conducted a similar survey in other countries including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Lao PDR, Mongolia and Vietnam. The regional survey was conducted in Vietnam and Malaysia (May-June 2020) and in other regional countries, including Pakistan from AugustSeptember 2020. In total, 2,344 SMEs participated in the regional survey. Results of the survey highlight the key issues being faced by SMEs in the region and the support they require to recuperate during COVID-19, which paved the way for government to facilitate them.  Online SME Clinics and Webinars: To facilitate SMEs during COVID-19 pandemic, SMEDA conducted Online Thematic helpdesks for SMEs and Webinars for SMEs in the areas of management, marketing, financial and technical assistance which helped the key public and private stakeholders in such a critical time. Source: SMEDA 3.8 Slaughtering Slaughtering has 7.4 percent share in manufacturing and 0.94 percent share in GDP. This sector constitutes products i.e., meat, hides, skins, bones and blood etc. Pakistan is one of the largest animal producers in the world with huge potential of its growth. Government has identified this sector as an engine for poverty alleviation in rural areas and thus has increased emphasis for investment in livestock production. During FY2021, Slaughtering has registered 3.88 percent growth against 4.05 percent increase last year. Middle East and Gulf markets have great potential for halal meat suppliers. Export opportunities of meat from Pakistan are rising in the wake of continuously rising demand in the global market. Last decade has witnessed a tremendous increase in meat exports as it increased to US$ 304.2 million in FY2020 from US$ 152.4 million in FY2011. Pakistan has exported US$ 248 million worth of meat and meat preparations during JulyMarch FY2021 as compared to US$ 233 million during the same period last year, reflecting a 6.5 percent increase. In terms of quantity in total, this category increased by 16.3 percent during July-March FY2021 with 72,863 metric tonnes as compared to 62,653 metric tonnes during the same period last year. 64
99. Manufacturing and Mining 3 .9 Mining and Quarrying According to the Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC) 2007, mining and quarrying sector includes the extraction of minerals occurring naturally as solids (coal and ores), liquids (petroleum) or gases (natural gas). Extraction can be achieved by underground or surface mining or well operation. Mineral Sector is a significant section of Pakistan National Accounts. The Mining and Quarrying sector negatively grew by 6.49 percent during July-March FY2021 as against 8.28 percent decline last year. 3.9.1 Minerals Pakistan is endowed with huge reserves of minerals covering an outcrop area of 600,000 sq. km due to its unique geological condition. Fortunately, Pakistan have been blessed with all type of rock from pre-Cambrian to recent with exceptional geological and geomorphologic features. There are 92 known minerals of which 52 are commercially exploited, it includes coal, copper, gold, chromite, mineral salt and several other minerals. Despite of all huge resources mineral sector is showing slow performance and its contribution to GDP remained at 2.38 percent during July-March FY2021. Government of Pakistan is well aware of this hidden treasure and taking all cognizant measures in this regard which include:  An investment facilitation project "Establishment of National Mineral Data Center" has been launched at federal level with Rs 295 million cost to maintain data repository.  Another initiative has been taken "Legal Consultancy Services "for drafting of model mineral agreements and formulation of uniform regulatory regime at cost of Rs 100 million to introduce an internationally competitive framework.  Action is underway for revamping of Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation (PMDC) and restructuring of Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP).  Stakeholders’ consultation process has been initiated for policy formulation to promote use of indigenous coal resources for synthesis of gas and liquid fuels.  Federal government has extended services for special development packages to provincial mineral sectors.  Continued support to facilitate smooth operation of mineral sector projects; Saindak Copper-Gold, Duddar Lead-Zinc, Barite-Lead-Zinc, Chiniot Iron Ore and mining projects of rock salt and coal etc. Although efforts are underway to develop the sector but enough remains to be done to enhance the sector to fully exploit the resources. This sector is lagging behind despite huge potential, due to interconnected and overlapping issues like poor regulatory framework, insufficient infrastructure at mines sites, outdated technology installed, semi-skilled labor, low financial support and lack of marketing. During July-March FY2021, production of major minerals plunged such as Coal, Natural Gas and Crude Oil declined by 5.97, 4.70 and 6.72 percent, respectively. However, some witnessed positive growth during the period under review such as Chromite 28.28 65
100. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 percent , Magnesite 6.17 percent, Rock Salt 5.44 percent and Iron Ore 26.23 percent. (Table 3.16). Table 3.16: Extraction of Principal Minerals Minerals Unit of 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 July-March %Change Quantity 2019-20 2020-21 FY21/FY20 Coal M.T 4,477,555 5,406,878 8,428,237 6,081,053 5,717,931 -5.97 Natural Gas MMCFT 1,458,935 1,436,546 1,316,636 1,009,893 962,397 -4.70 Crude Oil USB(000) 32,557 32,495 28,091 22,263 20,768 -6.72 Chromite M.T 97,420 138,244 121,435 66,883 85,798 28.28 Magnesite M.T 23,596 42,996 16,165 14,467 15,360 6.17 Dolomite M.T 488,825 472,474 302,045 254,986 121,674 -52.28 Gypsum M.T 2,475,893 2,517,825 2,149,873 1,575,830 1,208,441 -23.31 Lime Stone M.T 70,818,725 75,596,328 65,809,924 51,061,090 46,485,992 -8.96 Rock Salt M.T 3,653,746 3,799,106 3,368,978 2,546,454 2,685,023 5.44 Sulphur M.T 22,040 20,715 19,948 15,086 14,920 -1.10 Barytes M.T 88,847 116,480 55,341 37,892 17,807 -53.01 Iron Ore M.T 677,206 627,464 573,695 430,677 543,641 26.23 Soap Stone M.T 141,504 156,935 150,009 123,469 103,785 -15.94 Marble M.T 8,813,025 7,736,443 5,796,879 4,777,066 2,146,315 -55.07 Bauxite M.T 145,189 92,936 101,047 75,408 75,012 -0.53 Quartz M.T 125,014 112,308 4,592 4,292 2,332 -45.67 Ocher M.T 75,939 81,502 132,144 113,343 86,628 -23.57 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) There is a huge potential in Pakistan mineral sector and establishment of Balochistan Mineral Exploration Company is a great step in this development ladder and an encouraging sign for global mining players to invest in Mineral Sector of Pakistan. Punjab Mines and Minerals Department Punjab is responsible for exploration, exploitation and investment promotion of mineral endowments in province. It grants and regulates the leases of all minerals except oil, gas and radioactive minerals. Directorate General of Mines & Minerals Punjab has contributed a handsome amount of Rs 39 billion as nontax revenue during last five years. Major Initiatives during July-March FY2021:  Issuance of NOC(s) to 17 cement companies for grant of exploration licenses of limestone for installation of cement plants  13 exploration licenses of rock salt have been granted for installation of salt based industrial plants  Amendment in PMC rules 2002 in process  Drafting of Punjab Mines & Minerals Regulation Act 2021  Launching of Mining Cadastral Portal for public  Proposed ADP schemes for digitization of royalty regime  Initiatives for Women in Mining Projects 66
101. Manufacturing and Mining Khyber Pakhtunkhwa The total area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is 74 ,521 Sq. Km out of which 70 percent consist of mountains and rocks. The formation of these rocks contains huge prospects of different metallic/non-metallic minerals and various precious/semi-precious gemstones minerals. It has large number of mineral resources which have not yet been exploited at all to its full potential. Minerals Development Department Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has two divisions namely Licensing Division and Exploration Promotion Division.Based on the exploration done so far, excellent prospects of other valuable deposits still exist. Department revenue has substantially enhanced and has earned Rs 3.28 billion during July-March FY2021 which is 61 percent higher from the revenue collection during the same period last year. Major Initiatives during July-March FY2021  Establishment of Mining Cadastral System is an ADP project which is due for completion in June 2021. Mining Cadastral System is state of art web-based GIS enabled system which will enhance transparency in award of mineral titles, promote ease of doing business and facilitate investors in searching free mineral bearing areas. Upon deployment of this system the whole business of the department will be digitized.  Minerals Department is engaged with IBL-HRD (Belgium) for establishment of state of the art Gemstone lab, training and Certification Center at Mineral Testing Lab, Peshawar. The center will help in branding the local gemstones and will promote export of precious stones on high prices.  Appellate authority has restored hundreds of cancelled mineral titles which has very positive impact on enhancement of minerals production, revenue generation and jobs creation. Sindh The province of Sindh has large quantities of mineral deposits. Collectively there are 24 minerals which are being mined at present including large quantities of coal and granite reserves. The Directorate of Mines & Mineral Development, Sindh is sponsoring a scheme for study through consultant “Feasibility Study of Granite Deposits in Tharparkar, Sindh”. The department has constituted a policy for judicious and transparent award of leases in this area. It will be ensured that 03 large granite factories are set up by 2030 in this remote area. This will not only generate large employment opportunities for poor and downtrodden masses of this far-flung area but will also get world-class granite for local consumption and export with the result that poverty ratio will be decreased and increase in growth rate of government revenue will take major part for economic development of the province. Major Initiatives during July-March FY2021  The Mines & Mineral Development Department has established geo-data center with official web portal which will provide all the necessary information regarding minerals and online granted leases to the general public as well as investors/stake holders. 67
102. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  Development of Geographical Information System (GIS) facility implemented on web integration of Google maps.  Technical trainings in the field of GIS and remote senescing from SUPARCO has been provided to the technical staff.  The Complaint Management System has been introduced to increase efficiency.  The department intends to introduce friendly mineral exploration polices expected in future for investment opportunities regarding mineral resources by using latest equipment and technology. In this connection “Sindh Mineral Policy” has been processed for the year 2020-21. Balochistan Balochistan is the largest province (area wise) of the country constituting 43 percent of the total national landmass. The Country, in general and the province in particular, is endowed by the nature with substantial mineral wealth. Mineral industry can play an important role in boosting up the socio-economic setup in Balochistan as agriculture in other parts of the country but due attention could not be given to the exploration and development of mineral sector due to financial constraints, heavy risk investment and lack of infrastructure as the deposits are located in remote and far flung areas. However, efforts are being made for scientific exploration and exploitation of the mineral resources. Government has given prompt attention towards the development of minerals. Various national and multi-national companies are involved in exploration of minerals and have obtained areas for pre-feasibility studies/exploration/exploitation of gold, copper, precious metals and associated minerals in Chagai and other districts. Besides, the province has large deposits of limestone, gypsum and coal (raw material for cement manufacturing) and investment opportunities for installation of cement factories are available. Major Initiatives during July-March FY2021  Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) would map 50 top sheets of outcrop area to identify minerals potential in Balochistan for which the government has allocated Rs 20 million through PSDP 2020-21. This would help to maintain a database for future exploration of the occurrences of metallic and non-metallic minerals potential, dimension stones, aggregates and limestone reserves.  PC-1 for the establishment of full-fledged university in the field of minerals and natural resources has been approved which would be a milestone in the field of minerals.  Balochistan Mineral Exploration Company Limited (BMEC) and Balochistan Minerals Resource Company Limited (BMRL) have been established as a joint venture of the federal and provincial governments with 10 percent and 90 percent shares, respectively. Main objective is to attract private investment and boost government revenue via large scale mining. 68
103. Manufacturing and Mining 3 .10 Conclusion COVID-19 has emerged as one of the biggest challenges to global and domestic economy, bringing economic activities to a standstill. The situation was more challenging for manufacturing sector of Pakistan due to two reasons: First, many manufacturing jobs are on-site and cannot be carried out remotely. Second, slowdown of manufacturing activities due to high trade & production linkages with the hardest hit countries. However, government envisaged the situation well in time and adopted requisite measures i.e., earlier resumption of businesses, smart lockdowns, relief to exportoriented industries and construction & industrial packages. These measures reversed the scenario and LSM appeared to be one of the most resilient sectors during pandemic. Broad-based growth in LSM originated from strong performance of Textile, Food Beverages & Tobacco, Non-Metallic Mineral Products and Automobile. Nevertheless, a third and more contagious wave of the pandemic has begun spreading in the country, which may smother this economic recovery. Fortunately, vaccination drive has played a significant role in mitigating the virus-uncertainty this time and has given a sigh of relief to business community. Further, well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies also bode well for future prospects of manufacturing. 69
104.                              
105. Chapter 4 Fiscal Development The magnitude and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are unprecedented and have posed formidable challenges for countries around the world . Since the beginning of the pandemic, countries around the globe are dealing with the virus's socio-economic consequences by massive fiscal measures totalling $16 trillion as of March 17th, 20211(Box-I). While the global fiscal response has lessened the miseries of pandemic on the general population and the economy, it has placed public finances under tremendous strain. Government deficits and debts have risen to levels not seen since the global financial crisis (2008). Overall global fiscal deficit remained at 10.8 percent of GDP in 2020, while it is projected to narrow down to 9.2 percent of GDP in 20212. Prior to COVID-19, Pakistan's economy was transitioning from stabilization to growth as a result of series of policy measures introduced in FY2019. These measures addressed the economic imbalances and paved the way for better economic outcomes in the subsequent year. In particular, the fiscal sector witnessed a considerable improvement during the first three quarters of FY2020 on account of various policy interventions to improve the revenues and prudent expenditure management. However, the downturn in economic activity and higher COVID-related expenditures made fiscal management difficult in the last quarter of FY2020. Despite significant challenges, better fiscal performance in early FY2020 enabled the government to withstand the pandemic shock and helped in containing the overall fiscal deficit to 8.1 percent of GDP in FY2020, down from 9.0 percent in FY2019. Similarly, the primary balance posted a deficit of 1.8 percent of GDP during FY2020 against the deficit of 3.6 percent of GDP in FY2019. The outbreak of COVID-19 in the second half of FY2020 forced the government to reprioritize its policies to keep the economy afloat and provide relief to the people. In addition to pandemic containment measures, the government devised an extensive set of policies (Box-II). The aspiration behind these measures was to minimize the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy and to protect the most vulnerable segments of society. Although the quick response returned the economy to its pre-COVID trajectory in the fiscal year 2021, the additional relief related expenditure put a strain on the budget. In the backdrop of these challenges, the fiscal performance remained satisfactory due to the government’s efforts at fiscal consolidation, prudent expenditure management and 1 2 Fiscal Monitor April 2021. IMF Fiscal Monitor April, 2021.IMF
106. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 effective resource mobilization . These initiatives have had a strong carry-over effect in the current fiscal year where the fiscal deficit contained at 3.5 percent of GDP during July-March, FY2021 against 4.1 percent of GDP in the same period of last year. On the other hand, the primary balance posted a surplus of Rs 451.8 billion during July-March, FY2021 against the surplus of Rs 193.5 billion last year. Likewise, FBR achieved doubledigit growth in the first ten months of the current fiscal year and surpassed the target by more than 100 billion. The net provisional collection grew by 14.4 percent to Rs 3,780.3 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 3,303.4 billion last year. Box-I: Global Fiscal Response to COVID-19 Since the start of COVID-19, a large number of countries have implemented substantial fiscal assistance to mitigate the devastating effects on the economy and people's livelihoods. Fiscal support has taken different forms and covers both above- and below-the-line interventions, as well as contingent liabilities with varying consequences for public finances in the short and long term. The size, composition and duration of assistance vary across countries depending upon the impact of a pandemic. The $16 trillion in global pandemic-related fiscal response till March 17, 2021, includes $10 trillion in additional spending and forgone revenues, as well as $ 6 trillion in government loans, guarantees and capital injections. Job security and household income support received half of the above-the-line assistance in the G-20 advanced economies, while public works and job safety received the most support in emerging economies. The fiscal response in terms of GDP for selected countries have been mentioned in Table I: In one of the studies conducted by Chudik, Mohaddes and Raissi (2021), it is estimated that the government’s revenue and spending measures have prevented the global economy from a more severe contraction in 2020 by 2 percentage points. Fiscal assistance has also helped to lessen the pandemic's negative impact on private demand, consumption and unemployment. On the social protection side, additional spending was 0.6 percent of GDP on average during the first three quarters of 2020. It has prevented around 10 million people from falling into extreme poverty around the world (October 2020 Fiscal Monitor). The strength of the recovery depends on the suppression of pandemic and the continuity of policy support. To combat the pandemic, it is critical that the global healthcare systems must be adequately resourced and global cooperation on producing and distributing vaccines to all countries at affordable rates must be strengthened, particularly since many low-income countries depend on external grants to fund their vaccination programs. Table I: Fiscal Response in Selected Economies (% of GDP) Additional Spending & Foregone Revenues Bangladesh 1.4 China 4.8 India 3.3 Italy 8.5 Pakistan 2.0 Spain 7.6 Saudi Arabia 2.2 Turkey 1.9 U.K 16.2 U.S.A 25.5 Vietnam 1.4 Source: Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal measures in Response to COVID-19 Pandemic (IMF). Source: Fiscal Monitor, April 2021. IMF The budget strategy for the current fiscal year strikes a careful balance between supporting the economy and commitment to fiscal consolidation. In this regard, the fiscal policy measures are largely focused on relief measures to support businesses and to protect vulnerable segments of society. Simultaneously, the government is concentrating on containing the fiscal deficit at a manageable level and keeping the primary balance at a sustainable level. 72
107. Fiscal Development Box : II- Pakistan’s Response In the backdrop of significant challenges posed Table: II- Economic Stimulus Package (Rs billion) by the COVID-19 pandemic, the government Description Package Utilized* 190 124 focused on reducing economic losses and Emergency Response 570 298 maintaining the social and economic well- Relief to Citizens Support to Business & 480 432 being of the affected and vulnerable segments. At the initial stage, the government developed Economy 1,240 854 a comprehensive strategy to prevent the Total spread of the COVID-19 through early * As of end March,2021 detection, contact tracing and surveillance, Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division risk communication, social distancing, quarantine and isolation. Similarly, Pakistan has adopted a smart lockdown strategy to continue the business activities. On the other hand, the Economic Stimulus Package of Rs 1,240 billion was announced to sustain the socio-economic progress made through the reform agenda for economic recovery. The summary of the package and its utilization till March 2021 is explained in Table II. i. Emergency Response (Rs 190 billion): It includes an allocation for National Disaster Management Authority, medical equipment, emergency relief fund and tax relief on food & health. ii. Support to Business (Rs 570 billion): The intervention consists of, relief to the exporters (refunds), SMEs (bill deferment) and support to agriculture. In addition, relief on petrol/diesel was also provided under this head. iii. Relief to Citizens (Rs 480 billion): It covers relief to daily wage workers, vulnerable families and panagah, funding to utility stores, power and gas subsidy and payment to farmers (wheat). The balanced package after utilization of Rs 335 billion in FY2020 has been provisioned in FY2021 through supplementary grant approval amounting to Rs 540 billion. During FY2020, an amount of Rs 700 billion was utilized under the package, while during July-March, FY2021, an amount of Rs 154 billion has been provided to combat the pandemic including the purchase of vaccine amounting to Rs 25 billion. Up till March 2021, Rs 854 billion has been utilized which is 69 percent of the total package. The government’s efforts in lessening the adverse impact of the pandemic have been well acclaimed at the global level. In order to meet the financing needs for COVID-related expenditures, substantial emergency financing from the international community has also been mobilized including the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and G20 Debt Services Suspension Initiative (DSSI). Fiscal Performance FY2020 A cursory look into the major fiscal indicators reveals better-than-expected results in FY2020, owing to careful expenditure management and improved collection under tax and non-tax revenue. The overall fiscal deficit exceeded the target set for FY2020, however, it was contained at 8.1 percent of GDP against 9.0 percent of GDP recorded in FY2019. The fiscal accounts came under significant pressure during the fourth quarter of FY2020 due to COVID-19 related expenditures. The quarter-wise breakup shows that the fiscal deficit was 4.0 percent of GDP up to Q3, while the last quarter of FY2020 alone registered the deficit at 4.1 percent of GDP. On the other hand, the primary balance which accumulated a surplus of Rs 286.5 billion in the first two quarters, turned into a deficit during the second half of FY2020, however, the first three quarters ended up with a cumulative surplus of Rs 193.5 billion (0.5 percent of GDP). The primary balance was 73
108. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 restricted to the deficit of Rs 756 .6 billion (-1.8 percent of GDP) for the entire year against the deficit of Rs 1,353.8 billion (-3.6 percent of GDP) in FY2019. The total revenue increased by 15.1 percent of GDP in FY2020 thus surpassed its revised target of 14.3 percent of GDP for the year. In terms of growth, it grew by 28.0 percent in FY2020 against the negative growth of 6.3 percent recorded in the preceding year. The increase in revenues in FY2020 is largely attributed to a sharp rise in non-tax revenue and modest growth in tax collection. Non-tax revenue posted a historical impressive growth of 256.7 percent during FY2020 against the negative growth of 43.8 percent realized in FY2019. The increase stemmed from a sharp rise in SBP profit, PTA profit and mark-up (PSEs & others). Fig: 4.1- Quarter-Wise Break up of Fiscal Indicators % of GDP Fiscal Balance Primary Balance 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY2019 Source: Pakistan Fiscal Operations The total tax collection grew by 6.1 percent in FY2020 against the meagre growth of 0.1 percent in the comparable period of FY2019. In absolute terms, tax collection stood at Rs 4,747.8 billion in FY2020 against Rs 4,473.4 billion in FY2019. Within the total, federal tax collection increased by 6.4 percent and provincial tax collection grew by 2.9 percent in FY2020 over the preceding year. Out of total federal tax collection, FBR tax revenue posted a growth of 4.4 percent during FY2020 against the negative growth of 0.3 percent registered in FY2019. FBR Tax revenue rose by 17.5 percent until February 2020, but due to the pandemic, revenue growth slowed sharply. Table: 4.1 Fiscal Indicators as Percent of GDP Overall Expenditure Year Fiscal Total Current Development/1 Deficit FY2008 7.3 21.4 17.4 4.0 FY2009 5.2 19.2 15.5 3.5 FY2010 6.2 20.2 16.0 4.4 FY2011 6.5 18.9 15.9 2.8 FY2012 8.8 21.6 17.3 3.9 FY2013 8.2 21.5 16.4 5.1 FY2014 5.5 20.0 15.9 4.9 FY2015 5.3 19.6 16.1 4.2 FY2016 4.6 19.9 16.1 4.5 FY2017 5.8 21.3 16.3 5.3 FY2018 6.5 21.6 16.9 4.7 FY2019* 9.0 21.9 18.7 3.2 FY2020* 8.1 23.2 20.5 2.9 FY2021 B.E 7.0 22.9 20.0 2.9 /1 including net lending *: On the basis of revised GDP numbers Source: Budget Wing and Economic Adviser Wing’s Calculations, Finance Division 74 Revenue Total Rev. 14.1 14.0 14.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.5 14.3 15.3 15.5 15.1 12.9 15.1 15.9 Tax 9.9 9.1 9.9 9.3 10.2 9.8 10.2 11.0 12.6 12.4 12.9 11.7 11.4 12.1 Non-Tax 4.2 4.9 4.1 3.0 2.6 3.5 4.3 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.1 3.7 3.9
109. Fiscal Development The total expenditures observed a significant rise due to higher current expenditures , while development spending decreased during FY2020. Total expenditures grew by 23.2 percent of GDP in FY2020 as compared with 21.9 percent in FY2019. Within the total, current expenditures stood at 20.5 percent of GDP in FY2020 against 18.7 percent of GDP recorded in FY2019. Development expenditures and net lending on the other hand, reduced to 2.9 percent of GDP in FY2020 from 3.2 percent recorded in FY2019. Fig:4.2- Revenue-Expenditure Gap (% of GDP) 30 Expenditures 24 18 Fiscal Deficit 12 6 Revenues FY2021B.E FY2020 FY2019 FY2018 FY2017 FY2016 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011 FY2010 FY2009 FY2008 0 The fiscal sector performed admirably in the first three quarters of FY2020, due to higher tax revenue, prudent expenditure management and strict fiscal discipline. Nevertheless, the strong fiscal position was challenged due to the outbreak of the pandemic in the last quarter of FY2020, resulting in simultaneous pressures on both expenditures and revenues. Review of Public Expenditures Prior to COVID-19, steps to strengthen fiscal discipline assisted the government in accumulating much-needed funds for social and development spending. However, additional spending requirements for economic revival, health and social relief built significant pressure on the public finances and triggered increase in the total spending. In FY2020, total expenditure grew by 15.6 percent to Rs 9,648.5 billion (23.2 percent of GDP) against Rs 8,345.6 billion (21.9 percent of GDP) in FY2019. Although, development spending declined in FY2020, however, a sharp increase in current spending led to a substantial increase in total spending. The current expenditures accounted for 88.4 percent of overall expenditure, compared to 85.1 percent share in FY2019. Table 4.2: Trends in Components of Expenditure Year Total Current Mark-up Expenditure Expenditure Payments FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 17.1 18.1 21.4 19.2 20.2 18.9 21.6 12.6 14.9 17.4 15.5 16.0 15.9 17.3 2.9 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.8 4.4 Defence Development NonExpenditure* Interest NonDefence Exp 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.4 4.7 4.2 3.4 4.1 2.8 3.9 11.2 11.4 14.2 11.8 13.4 12.6 14.6 Fiscal Deficit 4.0 4.1 7.3 5.2 6.2 6.5 8.8 (As % of GDP) Revenue Primary Deficit/ Balance Surplus 0.5 -0.8 -3.3 -1.4 -2.1 -3.5 -4.5 -1.1 -0.1 -2.7 -0.3 -1.9 -2.7 -4.3 75
110. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 4 .2: Trends in Components of Expenditure Year Total Current Mark-up Expenditure Expenditure Payments Defence Development NonExpenditure* Interest NonDefence Exp FY2013 21.5 16.4 4.4 2.4 3.5 FY2014 20.0 15.9 4.6 2.5 4.5 FY2015 19.6 16.1 4.8 2.5 4.1 FY2016 19.9 16.1 4.3 2.6 4.5 FY2017 21.3 16.3 4.2 2.8 5.3 FY2018 21.6 16.9 4.3 3.0 4.6 FY2019 21.9 18.7 5.5 3.0 3.1 FY2020 23.2 20.5 6.3 2.9 2.8 FY2021BE 22.9 20.0 6.5 2.8 2.9 * excluding net lending Source: Budget Wing and Economic Adviser Wing’s Calculations, Finance Division Fiscal Deficit 14.7 12.9 12.3 13.0 14.3 14.3 13.4 14.0 13.7 8.2 5.5 5.3 4.6 5.8 6.5 9.0 8.1 7.0 (As % of GDP) Revenue Primary Deficit/ Balance Surplus -3.0 -1.5 -1.8 -0.9 -0.8 -1.8 -5.8 -5.4 -4.1 -3.8 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -1.6 -2.2 -3.6 -1.8 -0.5 Fig: 4.3- Growth in Expenditures (%) Total Expenditure 60 Current Development 40 20 0 -20 FY2021BE FY2020 FY2019 FY2018 FY2017 FY2016 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 -40 Within the total, current expenditure grew by 20.1 percent in FY2020, however, it remained below the growth of 21.3 percent recorded in FY2019. In absolute terms, current expenditure stood at Rs 8,532.0 billion (20.5 percent of GDP) during FY2020 as compared to Rs 7,104.0 billion (18.7 percent of GDP) in FY2019. The bulk of the increase in current expenditure in FY2020 was due to higher mark-up payments which grew by 25.3 percent to Rs 2,619.7 billion from Rs 2,091.1 billion in FY2019.The rise in mark-up payments was driven by higher servicing on domestic debt due to a higher level of interest rates. During FY2020, the contribution of mark-up payments in total and current expenditure increased to 27.2 and 30.7 percent from 25.1 and 29.4 percent, respectively in FY2019. On the contrary, defence expenditure grew by 5.8 percent to Rs 1,213.3 billion in FY2020 (2.9 percent of GDP) as compared to Rs 1,146.8 billion (3.0 percent of GDP) in the preceding year. Its contribution in total and current expenditure has reduced from 13.7 and 16.1 percent in FY2019 to 12.6 and 14.2 percent, respectively during FY2020 COVID-related spending accounted for most of the increase in subsidies and grants in FY2020. Within subsidies, power, food and agriculture sectors made a significant 76
111. Fiscal Development contribution . In addition, a subsidy to the LNG industry for providing lower-cost gas to the industry further added to the overall increase. Thus, the rise in subsidies has been realized both in terms of growth and its contribution to current expenditure. In absolute terms, subsidies increased to Rs 359.9 billion during FY2020 against Rs 195.3 billion in FY2019, posting a growth of 84.3 percent. Similarly, its contribution within current expenditure grew by 4.2 percent in FY2020 as compared to the share of 2.7 percent in FY2019. The government expanded the cash transfer program in response to COVID-19 in the last quarter, particularly, Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) under Ehsaas. Thus, the grants to others witnessed a noticeable increase owing to social protection spending. In addition, other major contributing factors are grants for contingent liabilities, Railways, AJK, Gilgit Baltistan and encashment of sales tax and income tax refunds, etc. Fig:4.4- Expenditures % of GDP Current Expenditure 21.5 20.0 19.6 Development Expenditure 19.9 Total Expenditure 21.3 21.6 21.9 5.3 4.6 3.1 23.2 22.9 2.8 2.9 3.5 4.5 4.1 4.5 16.4 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.9 18.7 20.5 20.0 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021BE Development expenditure and net lending reduced by 1.3 percent during FY2020 and stood at Rs 1,203.7 billion against Rs 1,219.2 billion in FY2019. Similarly, development expenditure (excluding net lending) reduced to Rs 1,155.2 billion during FY2020 from Rs 1,178.4 billion in FY2019, thus registered a decline of 2.0 percent. The decline in development expenditure is largely stemmed from a reduction in federal PSDP spending and other development expenditure. Total PSDP expenditure grew by 8.1 percent to Rs 1,089.7 billion in FY2020 against Rs 1,008.2 billion in the comparable period of FY2019. The growth in PSDP during the year has been realized on account of 22.9 percent growth in provincial PSDP. Within total PSDP, federal PSDP (excluding development grants to provinces) stood at Rs 467.7 billion, while provincial PSDP recorded at Rs 622.0 billion in FY2020 against Rs 502.1 billion and Rs 506.2 billion, respectively in FY2019. Structure of Tax Revenue The most effective way to boost a country's domestic resource mobilization effort is to develop an efficient tax system. An efficient tax system not only enables the government 77
112. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 to finance its spending for key areas such as education , health and infrastructure but at the same time it increases the revenues and thereby reduces the fiscal imbalances. Over the years, distortionary exemptions, concessions, weak enforcement, low compliance by taxpayers, reliance on indirect taxes and issues in improving tax administration have adversely affected the tax to GDP ratio. Historically, Pakistan has a narrow tax base due to the fact that few sectors are under-taxed and some are not taxed at all. There are three major sectors of Pakistan’s economy i.e agriculture, industry and services (in terms of their share in GDP), however, their tax contributions are not proportionate to their economic contribution. For instance, the agriculture sector accounts for 19.4 percent in GDP during FY2020 while contributing less than 2 percent in tax. In services, transport, storage & communication, housing and other private services contributes 12.7 percent, 7.0 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively in GDP, while their contributions in taxes is 7.0 percent, 0.3 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively. In contrast, the manufacturing, mining & quarrying sectors are contributing the most in taxes relative to their share in GDP i.e manufacturing accounts for 12.2 percent, mining & quarrying 2.6 percent and construction 2.5 percent in GDP, while their share in taxes is 37.0 and 6.0 and 1.2 percent, respectively during FY2020. This represents that tax in the respective sectors are not equitable with reference to their contribution in GDP. Consequently, the tax to GDP ratio remained low. Thus, there is need to improve tax to GDP ratio by increasing contribution of tax revenues from the sectors having more potential to pay taxes. Fig: 4.5 (a)- Sectoral Contribution in Tax and GDP (%) FY2018 Fig: 4.5 (b)- Sectoral Contribution in Tax and GDP (%) FY2020 75 Other Private Services 60 Housing 45 Transport, Storage & Communication Construction 30 Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying 15 Agriculture 0 Share in Tax FY2018 Source: FBR & PBS Share in GDP Share in Tax Share in GDP FY2020 During the last five years, overall tax-to-GDP ratio (federal & provincial) remained within a range of 11.4 percent and 12.9 percent. This ratio fell to 11.4 percent in FY2020, down from 11.7 percent in FY2019. The economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a further drop in the tax-to-GDP ratio during FY2020. 78
113. Fiscal Development Fig-4 .6: Tax Revenues % of GDP 0.7 0.8 9.2 9.4 10.2 FY2014 FY2015 12.4 1.0 1.0 12.9 1.2 11.7 11.4 1.1 1.0 10.7 10.4 11.6 11.4 11.7 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 0.8 12.1 1.2 10.9 FY2021 B.E 10.2 12.6 Tax Revenues FY2020 9.8 FY2013 11.0 Provincial FY2019 Federal Within total tax collection, FBR collects a sizeable portion of tax revenue. During FY2020, FBR tax revenue reduced to 9.6 percent of GDP. In net terms collection stood at 3,997.4 billion against Rs 3,828.5 billion in FY2019, thus posted a growth of 4.4 percent. This growth seems much better as compared to negative growth during FY2019.Within FBR tax collection, direct taxes increased by 5.4 percent in FY2020. Sales tax which is the top revenue generating source of federal tax receipts after direct taxes, posted a growth of 9.4 percent. The domestic sales tax collection grew by 11.0 percent and collection of sales tax on imports increased by 8.1 percent during the same period. Similarly, the collection under federal excise duty (FED) grew by 5.2 percent, while customs duty posted a negative growth of 8.6 percent in FY2020 due to a decline in imports. Table 4.3: Structure of Federal Tax Revenue Year Total Tax Rev. Direct (FBR) as % of Taxes Customs GDP FY2006 713.5 8.7 225.0 138.4 [31.5] {28.3} FY2007 847.2 9.2 333.7 132.3 [39.4] {25.8} FY2008 1,008.1 9.5 387.9 150.7 [38.5] {24.3} FY2009 1,161.1 8.8 443.5 148.4 [38.2] {20.7} FY2010 1,327.4 8.9 526.0 160.3 [39.6] {20.0} FY2011 1,558.2 8.5 602.5 184.9 [38.7] {19.3} FY2012 1,882.7 9.4 738.4 216.9 [39.2] {19.0} FY2013 1,946.4 8.7 743.4 239.5 [38.2] {19.9} FY2014 2,254.5 9.0 877.3 242.8 (Rs billion) Indirect Taxes Sales Excise 294.8 {60.3} 309.4 {60.3} 377.4 {60.9} 451.7 {62.9} 516.3 {64.4} 633.4 {66.3} 804.9 {70.3} 842.5 {70.0} 996.4 55.3 {11.3} 71.8 {14.0} 92.1 {14.9} 117.5 {16.4} 124.8 {15.6} 137.4 {14.4} 122.5 {10.7} 121.0 {10.1} 138.1 Total 488.5 [68.5] 513.5 [60.6] 620.2 [61.5] 717.6 [61.8] 801.4 [60.4] 955.7 [61.3] 1,144.3 [60.8] 1,203.0 [61.8] 1,377.3 79
114. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 4 .3: Structure of Federal Tax Revenue Year Total Tax Rev. Direct (FBR) as % of Taxes Customs GDP [38.9] {17.6} FY2015 2,589.9 9.4 1,033.7 306.2 [39.9] {19.7} FY2016 3,112.7 10.7 1,217.3 404.6 [39.1] {21.3} FY2017 3,367.9 10.6 1,344.2 496.8 [39.9] {24.5} FY2018 3,843.8 11.1 1,536.6 608.4 [39.7] {26.4} FY2019 3,828.5 10.1 1,445.5 685.6 [37.8] {28.8} FY2020 3,997.4 9.6 1,523.4 626.6 [38.1] {25.3} FY2021B.E 4,963.0 10.9 2,043.0 640.0 [41.2] {21.9} B.E: Budget Estimates, [] as % of total taxes, {} as % of Indirect taxes Source: Federal Board of Revenue Fig:4.7 (a)- Total FBR (Rs billion) (Rs billion) Indirect Taxes Sales Excise {72.3} 1,087.8 {69.9} 1,302.7 {68.8} 1,329.0 {65.7} 1,485.3 {64.4} 1,459.2 {61.2} 1,596.9 {64.5} 1,919.0 {65.7} Total {10.0} 162.2 {10.4} 188.1 {9.9} 197.9 {9.8} 213.5 {9.3} 238.2 {10.0} 250.5 {10.1} 361.0 {12.4} [61.1] 1,556.2 [60.2] 1,895.4 [60.9] 2,023.7 [60.1] 2,307.2 [60.0] 2,383.0 [62.2] 2,474.0 [61.9] 2,920.0 [58.8] Fig: 4.7 (b)- FBR Rev as % of GDP 5000 9.0 FY2014 4000 8.7 FY2013 10.7 10.6 11.1 10.1 9.4 9.6 3000 2000 1000 FY2020 FY2019 FY2018 FY2017 FY2016 FY2015 FY2020 FY2019 FY2018 FY2017 FY2016 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 0 FBR tax revenue increased by 17.5 percent until February 2020, but due to the pandemic, the revenue growth slowed significantly and annual growth remained lower than anticipated. Despite substantial challenges, the FBR was able to meet its revised target of Rs 3,908 billion by 2.3 percent, which is encouraging. Historically, the tax revenue collection mainly depended on indirect taxes, especially customs. With the passage of time, the share of direct taxes has started to improve. Currently, the sales tax constitutes 39.9 percent of the total collection followed by direct taxes with 38.1 percent share and customs by 15.7 percent and FED 6.3 percent. The share of customs duty declined in FY2020, while the contribution of direct tax, FED and sales tax has witnessed a slight increase during the same period. 80
115. Fiscal Development To improve the tax to GDP ratio , the government is making all-out efforts to enhance tax collection through comprehensive tax reforms. Although in budget 2021, the government has not introduced any new tax, however, the emphasis is on strict enforcement and monitoring, broadening of tax base, documentation of economy and deployment of technology to identify risk areas to support risk-based audit. Fiscal Performance (July-March, FY2021) Fig-4.8: Share of Direct and Indirect Taxes in Total FBR Collection (FY2020) Customs 16% Direct Tax 38% Excise 6% Sales 40% The fiscal sector continues to perform better on account of effective revenue mobilization and expenditure management strategy. A recovery in domestic economic activity and a slowdown in expenditures other than mark-up payments and COVIDrelated spending improved the fiscal accounts during the first three quarters of FY2021. The revenue side, in particular, performed better as a result of increased tax collection both at the federal and provincial levels. In addition, the cumulative surplus of all the four provinces was higher than the previous year. The fiscal deficit thus remained on the lower side during July-March, FY2021 over the same period last year. According to the consolidated fiscal operations, the fiscal deficit during the first nine months of FY2021 contained at 3.5 percent of GDP against 4.1 percent of GDP in the comparable period of FY2020. Similarly, the primary balance posted a surplus of Rs 451.8 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) during July-March, FY2021 against the surplus of Rs 193.5 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) in the same period of FY2020. Table 4.4: Consolidated Revenue & Expenditure of the Government July-March (Rs billion) FY2021 B.E. FY2021 FY2020 A. Total Revenue 7,261.0 4,992.6 4,689.9 % of GDP 15.9 10.5 11.3 a) Tax Revenue 5,498.0 3,765.0 3,365.5 % of GDP 12.1 7.9 8.1 Federal (FBR Taxes) 4,963.0 3,394.9 3,044.3 % of GDP 10.9 7.1 7.3 Provincial Tax Revenue 535.0 370.1 321.2 b) Non-Tax Revenue 1,763.0 1,227.6 1,324.4 % of GDP 3.9 2.6 3.2 B. Total Expenditure 10,455.0 6,644.6 6,376.0 % of GDP 22.9 13.9 15.3 a) Current Expenditure 9,113.0 6,085.4 5,611.6 % of GDP 20.0 12.8 13.5 Federal 6,261.0 4,157.3 3,887.7 Mark-up Payments 2,946.0 2,103.9 1,879.7 % of GDP 6.5 4.4 4.5 Defence 1,289.0 784.0 802.4 % of GDP 2.8 1.6 1.9 Growth FY2021 6.5 11.9 11.5 15.2 -7.3 4.2 8.4 6.9 11.9 2.5 -2.3 - 81
116. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 4 .4: Consolidated Revenue & Expenditure of the Government July-March (Rs billion) Growth FY2021 B.E. FY2021 FY2021 FY2020 Provincial 2,853.0 1,928.1 1,723.9 11.9 b) Development Expenditure & 1,342.0 722.9 781.4 -7.5 net lending % of GDP 2.9 1.5 1.9 -15.3 PSDP 1,252.0 653.9 722.5 -9.5 Other Development 70.0 14.1 29.2 -51.9 c) Net Lending 20.0 55.0 29.7 d) Statistical discrepancy -163.8 -16.9 C. Overall Fiscal Balance -3,194.0 -1,652.0 -1,686.1 -2.0 % of GDP -7.0 -3.5* -4.1** D. Primary Balance -248 451.8 193.5 % of GDP -0.5 0.9 0.5 Financing 3,194.0 1,652.0 1,686.2 -2.0 i) External Sources 810.0 562.2 682.4 -17.6 ii) Domestic 2,384.0 1,089.9 1,003.8 8.6 - Bank 889.0 797.8 601.8 32.6 - Non-Bank 1,395.0 292.1 402.0 -27.3 Privatization Proceeds 100.0 0.0 0.0 GDP at Market Prices 45,567 47,709 41,556 14.8 * On the basis of provisional GDP estimate for FY2021 **On the basis of revised GDP number for FY2020 Note: During the current fiscal year, the fiscal accounts have been reclassified in line with the implementation of PFM procedures. According to the re classification, federal taxes other than FBR have now been included in Non-tax revenue. Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division During July-March, FY2021, total revenue grew by 6.5 percent against the growth of 30.9 percent in the same period of last year. In absolute terms, total revenue increased to Rs 4,992.6 billion during July-March, FY2021from Rs 4,689.9 billion in the same period of FY2020. A major impetus in revenue increase came entirely from double-digit growth in tax revenue which compensated for the decline in non-tax revenues. Total tax revenue (federal & provincial) grew by 11.9 percent during July-March, FY2021 and stood at Rs 3,765.0 billion against Rs 3,365.5 billion in the comparable period of FY2019. Within the total, federal tax collection witnessed a significant rise as it grew by 11.5 percent to stand at Rs 3,394.9 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 3,044.3 billion in the same period of FY2020.The revenue performance is not only a reflection of growing economic activities without any disruption even in the wake of the third wave of COVID-19, but it also suggests that the efforts to improve the tax collection through various policy and administrative reforms are fruitful. In contrast, the non-tax revenue fell sharply during July-March, FY2021 after witnessing strong growth in the same period of last year. Non-tax revenue, stood at Rs 1,227.6 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 1,324.4 billion in the corresponding period last year, showing a decline of 7.3 percent. Out of the total, federal non-tax revenue recorded a decline of 8.0 percent to Rs 1,145.4 billion during July-March, FY2021 against 82
117. Fiscal Development Rs 1 ,244.8 billion in the same period last year. The decline is mainly attributed to the absence of a one-off renewal fee for GSM licenses from telecommunication companies. In addition, lower receipts from a surplus profit of SBP and mark-up (PSEs & others) have also attributed to an overall decline in federal non-tax collection. On the other hand, receipts from Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (GIDC), Natural Gas Development Surcharge and petroleum Levy have witnessed an increase during July-March, FY2021 over the same period last year. Fig: 4.9- Non Tax Revenues (Federal) Rs billion (July-March) Mark-up (PSEs & Others) Profit PTA SBP Profit 198.3 Petroleum Levy 369.2 635.5 497.5 113.2 70.0 FY2020 20.0 53.2 FY2021 The breakup shows that out of the total, Rs 497.5 billion were collected from SBP profit followed by Rs 369.2 billion from petroleum levy, Rs 53.3 billion from Royalties on Oil/Gas, Rs 53.2 billion from mark-up receipts (PSEs & others), Rs 20.0 billion from PTA profit, Rs 17.2 billion from natural gas development surcharge and Rs 15.4 billion from GIDC etc. On the expenditure side, total expenditure grew by 4.2 percent during July-March, FY2021 as compared to 15.8 percent growth observed in the same period of FY2020. The efficient expenditure management helped in curtailing the overall expenditure during the current fiscal year. In absolute terms, the expenditures stood at Rs 6,644.6 billion (13.9 percent of GDP) during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 6,376.0 billion (15.3 percent of GDP) in the comparable period of last year. The current expenditure contained at 8.4 percent during July-March, FY2021 against 16.9 percent growth recorded in the same period of last year. In absolute terms, it stood at Rs 6,085.4 billion in July-March, FY2021 against Rs 5,611.6 billion in the same period of FY2020. Although higher mark-up payments, increase in subsidies and grants to others, contributed significantly to the current fiscal year's growth in current expenditure, the decline in other expenditures like defence, pensions and running of civil government slowed the pace of growth. The mark-up payments grew by 11.9 percent during July- March, FY2021 on account of higher growth in domestic debt servicing. In absolute terms, the mark-up payments increased to Rs 2,103.9 billion during July-March, FY2021 from Rs 1,879.7 billion as 83
118. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 compared to same period of last year . Higher domestic debt servicing was observed during the first nine months of the current fiscal year as a result of Rs 1,502 billion in domestic borrowing that was raised to finance the federal fiscal deficit. Most of the previous year's short-term debt was issued through 12-month T-Bills, the interest on which was paid in the current fiscal year. On the other hand, the foreign debt servicing witnessed a significant decline during July-March, FY2021 owing to refixing of floating rate debt at much lower rates due to substantial decrease in international reference rates i.e., Libor, exchange rate appreciation (Rupee strengthening) and interest servicing deferment to the tune of USD 278 million through Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI-I). In contrast to higher mark-up payments, the consolidated non-mark-up current expenditure grew by 6.7 percent in July-March, FY2021, mainly because the federal noninterest current expenditure increased by only 2.3 percent against the growth of 16.6 percent in the same period of last year. The contained spending during the said period has been observed on the back of a decline in defence, pension and running of civil government expenditure. During the current fiscal year, the implementation of austerity measures aided in the reduction of expenditures under the running of civil government. Fig:4.10- Current Expenditures (Non-Mark up) Growth (%) Defence Pension Running of Civil Govt. 13.3 3.6 3.3 -1.0 -2.3 -8.5 FY2021 FY2020 Other components, such as subsidies and grants to others, grew at a slower pace during July-March of FY2021, compared to the same period of the previous year. Subsidies increased by 20.5 percent in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, compared to a 75.1 percent increase in the same period of FY2020. Similarly, grants to others, which grew at a faster rate in July-March of FY2020, i.e., around 60 percent, reduced to around 17 percent in the same period of the current fiscal year. Most of the increase in both subsidies and grants covered COVID-related spending, which continued during the current fiscal year. In absolute terms, subsidies increased to Rs 204.3 billion during July-March, FY2021 from Rs 169.5 billion in the same period of last year. According to the breakup of subsidies, Rs 197.3 billion were provided for power and petroleum, Rs 3.6 billion to 84
119. Fiscal Development PASSCO including GB wheat , Rs 2.1 billion for fertilizer plants (Engro, Fatima) and Rs 1.0 billion for PM package for rabi crops, etc. Similarly, grants to others stood at Rs 424.3 billion in July-March, FY2021 against Rs 363.1 billion in the comparable period of FY2020. Under this head, total spending against the BISP under Ehsaas increased by 13.6 percent to Rs 71.2 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 62.7 billion in the same period of last year. The total development expenditure (excluding net lending) stood at Rs 668.0 billion during July-March, FY2021 as compared to Rs 751.7 billion in the same period of FY2020, showing a decline of 11.1 percent. During the period, PSDP spending (federal and provincial) reduced by 9.5 percent to reach Rs 653.9 billion against Rs 722.5 billion in the same period of last year. The decline in expenditure under PSDP has been observed on account of a decline in federal PSDP (net excluding development grants to provinces) which reduced by 22.5 percent, while provincial PSDP registered a modest growth of 2.1 percent in July-March, FY2021 over the same period of last year. As the fiscal deficit was kept on the lower side year on year (y-o-y) in July-March of FY2021, total financing was reduced by 2 percent in the same period. Domestic and external resources generated Rs 1,089.9 billion and Rs 562.2 billion, respectively, to finance the fiscal deficit in July-March FY2021. Within domestic sources, financing from bank stood at Rs 797.8 billion and from non-bank, it amounted to Rs 292.1 billion during the period under review. It is worth mentioning that despite additional spending due to COVID-19, the government was able to adhere to the fiscal discipline in an effort to achieve its fiscal consolidation targets. Healthy growth in tax revenue and efficient expenditure management would pave the way to maintain the fiscal deficit within reasonable limits in the coming months. FBR Tax Collection (July-April, FY2021) The economic recovery that started to unfold during the first quarter of FY2021 further accelerated in the subsequent months. The government’s unprecedented measures in the wake of COVID-19 along with sector-specific support policies helped in the revival of domestic economic activity during the current fiscal year. Particularly, the industrial sector gained significant momentum on the back of rising construction activities. All these developments along with the ongoing comprehensive tax measures and administrative reforms have paid off in a substantial rise in FBR tax collection. The FBR tax collection achieved double-digit growth in the first ten months of the current fiscal year and surpassed the target by more than 100 billion. The provisional net collection grew by 14.4 percent to Rs 3,780.3 billion during July-April, FY2021 against Rs 3,303.4 billion in the same period last year. The tax collection has witnessed a broad-based increase in all its revenue heads during the period under review. Details are presented in Table 4.5: 85
120. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 4 .6: FBR Tax Revenues Tax Heads A. DIRECT TAXES FY2020 Actual 1,523.4 B. INDIRECT TAXES 2,474.0 SALES TAX 1,596.9 FEDERAL EXCISE 250.5 CUSTOM 626.6 TOTAL TAX COLLECTION (A+B) 3,997.4 *: Provisional-Likely to change after reconciliation Source: Federal Board of Revenue/PRAL Rs billion July-April % Change FY2020 FY2021* 1,225.0 1,362.4 11.2 2,078.4 1,348.8 206.1 523.5 3,303.4 2,417.9 1,592.5 223.4 602.0 3,780.3 16.3 18.1 8.4 15.0 14.4 Direct Taxes The net collection of direct taxes has registered a growth of 11.2 percent during the first ten months of FY 2021. The net collection has increased from Rs 1,225.0 billion to Rs 1,362.4 billion. The bulk of the tax revenue of direct taxes is realized from income tax. The major contributors of income tax are withholding tax, voluntary payments and collection on demand. Indirect Taxes The net collections of indirect taxes have witnessed a growth of 16.3 percent. It is accounted for 64 percent of the total FBR tax revenue. Sales Tax i. The net sales tax collection during July-April, FY2021 remained at Rs 1,592.5 billion, showing healthy growth of 18.1 percent. In fact, around 56 percent of total sales tax was contributed by sales tax on import during July-April, FY2021, while the rest was contributed by the domestic sector. Federal Excise Duty ii. The collection of federal excise duties (FED) during July-April, FY2021 has recorded a growth of 8.4 percent. The net collection has stood at Rs 223.4 billion during July-April, FY2021 as against Rs 206.1 billion during the same period last year. The major revenue spinners of FED are cigarettes, cement, services and beverages. iii. Customs Duty Customs duty has registered a growth of 15.0 percent in net revenues. The net collection has increased from Rs 523.4 billion during July-April, FY2020 to Rs 602.0 billion during July-April, FY2021. The major revenue spinners of customs duty have been vehicles, mineral fuels, iron and steel, electrical machinery, plastic, edible fruits, etc. Impact of COVID-19 on FBR Collection COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the national economy and the revenue collection efforts of FBR. Keeping in view the negative impact of COVID-19 on the economy the yearly target of the current fiscal year has been reduced downward from 86
121. Fiscal Development Rs 4 ,963 billion to Rs 4,691 billion, which means Rs 272 billion lesser than the original target. During the first ten months of FY 2021, FBR has collected Rs 3,780.3 billion i.e.14.4 percent higher than the previous year. However, it is expected that the situation would likely get better further during the coming months. Table 4.6 shows tax-wise revenue collection for the period July-April FY2021 along with the expected collection during May-June FY2021: Table-4.6: Net Collection July-March (Rs billion) Tax Heads Collection (July-April) FY2020 FY2021* Direct Tax 1,225.0 1,362.4 Sales Tax 1.348.8 1,592.5 FED 206.1 223.4 Customs Duty 523.5 602.0 Total 3,303.4 3,780.3 (*) Provisional Source: Federal Board of Revenue/PRAL Growth Absolute 137 244 17 79 477 %age 11.2 18.1 8.4 15.0 14.4 Expected Collection May-June FY2021 May-June July-June 427 1,789 335 1,927 52 275 98 700 911 4,691 Relief Measures In order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and to boost the economy, the FBR has taken various relief measures to facilitate commerce, trade, industry and social sector in the country. Following relief measures have been taken in this regard: i. The construction industry in Pakistan was severely impacted due to COVID-19. The initiation of extensive construction activity in the country has the potential to contribute significantly towards the revival of the national economy by addressing the issue of increased unemployment anticipated in the aftermath of the pandemic, enhancing tax revenues, supporting businesses and propelling economic growth and development. Envisioning the desired objectives, the Tax Laws (Amendments) Ordinance, 2020 was promulgated on 17th April 2020 encapsulating an incentive package for the construction industry. The same was subsequently incorporated in the Finance Act, 2020. ii. The COVID-19 Prevention of Smuggling Bill, 2020 was promulgated. The Bill sought to curb the menace of smuggling of food and other essential commodities with exemplary punishments to create an effective deterrence in the emergent situation resulting from the outbreak of the Pandemic. iii. Federal Board of Revenue believes in the liquidation of genuine tax refunds of all industries, especially the export-oriented sector. Keeping in view the seriousness of the issue in the COVID-19 scenario, FBR issued / adjusted refunds of around Rs 253.0 billion in the first ten months of FY2021, which is 66.5 percent higher than Rs 151.8 billion in FY2020. In absolute terms, Rs 101.0 billion more have been paid as a refund during the period under consideration. Speedy clearance of tax refunds of genuine refunds claimants resolved the liquidity crunch of industries and they were able to 87
122. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 pay the salaries to their employees on time , apart from catering to their business needs. iv. All COVID-19 related health equipment (61 items,) have been exempted from Sales Tax, Income Tax and Customs Duty on recommendation of the health sector. v. FBR exempted customs duties on import of highly essential items which were needed to be imported for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 as proposed by the Ministry of National Health Services. Apart from the above, to fight the challenge of COVID-19 some other measures are under consideration to ensure maximum tax revenue on the one hand and to promote economic activities on the other. In this regard, a two-pronged approach will be adopted to address the issue of a narrow tax base and tax gap in various sectors. Automation and expeditious disposal of refunds will be actively pursued. The FASTER system is in force and sale tax refunds are being transferred through it. Efforts are being made to increase the share of direct taxes in revenue collection. Documentation of the economy to increase the taxation in services, real estate, wholesale and retail is top priority. Automation of all business processes starting from registration to assessment has also been initiated. Installation of Track and Trace, Point of Sale integration retailer with FBR’s system, audit, e-appeal are at various stages of implementation. Corporate tax references, personal Income Tax Reform, reducing the dependency of withholding taxes, rationalization of minimum tax, removal of anomalies and unnecessary exemption, sales tax harmonization and promotion of ease of doing business are certain policy measure to be adopted for revenue mobilization to mitigate the negative impact on revenue collection. Further, FBR envisioned several reforms / special initiatives which are expected to yield positive results in the form of increased revenue collection, in line with efforts to facilitate the taxpayers for the best outcome (Box-III). Box-III: Measures Undertaken to Boost Tax Collection A. Inland Revenues i. Income tax Return Filing: Number of income tax return filers for TY 2020 has crossed 3.0 million. ii. Utilization of data obtained from DISCOs & Gas Companies: More than 650,000 notices have been issued on the basis of data obtained from DISCOs and in lieu of these notices 129,541 returns have been enforced so far. iii. Tax Asaan: Mobile Application, Tax Asaan, has been launched which provides for basic verification features like ATL, Online NTN/STRN inquiry, exemption certificates and sales tax registration. iv. High Net-Worth Individuals (action through third party data utilization): In order to develop 360 degree view of tax payers, data sources like banks, vehicles and real estate transactions have been captured and a Data Bank has been developed. Based on this data bank, notices to more than 200,000 high net-worth un-registered persons have been issued. v. Point of Sales (POS) Integration of Tier-1 retailers: FBR has embarked on a plan to integrate all sales outlets of tier-1 retailers with FBR’s central computerized system. vi. Agreement with Traders: The market committees shall not only resolve contentious issues but also ensure registration of un-registered traders. 88
123. Fiscal Development vii . viii. ix. x. xi. Track & Trace System: FBR has decided to implement Track and Trace System for specified goods/ products i.e. Tobacco, Cement, Sugar, Fertilizer and Beverages imported into or manufactured in Pakistan. Assessment & Processing (A&P) Units: Sectoral analysis of huge business concerns has been conducted across the country by Assessment & Processing Units in all field formations of IRS. Sectors like cement, sugar, cotton and tobacco remained under focus. Investigation & Prosecution (I&P) Units: Legal actions (attachment of properties, arrests and seizures) has been made against huge tax-defaulters to create deterrence against taxevaders. IREN and Joint Anti-smuggling field intelligence exercise: Establishment of Inland Revenue Enforcement Network (IREN) to check smuggling and counterfeit products. Inland Revenue Service and Pakistan Customs Service have joined hands for anti-smuggling field intelligence exercise. Maloomat: FBR has launched Maloomat (tax profiling system) on its web portal, containing data of 53 million citizens, giving access to the filers and non-filers to the information about their assets and bank accounts. B. Measures Taken by Customs Authorities i. Automation of Customs procedures/processes to facilitate trade by reducing cost of doing business. ii. Rationalization of customs tariffs to promote trade and investment. iii. Ensuring consistency and transparency in the valuation regime, keeping in view the continuously evolving international market iv. Building human resource capacity. v. Providing facility of e-payments, greater induction of technology to improve trade /logistic performance indicators; a recent example is deployment of e-payments platform. vi. Building National Single Window (WINPAK) for increased efficiency, timely/informed decision making and integrating all stakeholder i.e. private sector and government. vii. EDI – electronic Data Interchange with China viii. Anti – Smuggling Strategy C. Audit Related Initiatives i. Risk based Audit: FBR has developed a centralized Risk based Audit Management System (RAMS) for selection of audit cases centrally on the basis of pre-determined risk parameters. Subsequently, in September 2020, through Audit Policy, 2019, a total number of 12,533 cases were selected for audit for Tax Year 2018 through Risk based Audit Management System (RAMS). ii. Transformation of traditional audit processes through e-Audits: FBR is also moving for instituting data analytics for E-Audit through transformation in the traditional audit processes. In this system, the correspondence between taxpayers and the tax department would totally be electronic till the conclusion of audit proceedings. iii. Automation of audit monitoring system: A software solution is under process to provide continuous monitoring of the audit cases with sufficient documentation and assistance to the auditors. Source: Federal Board of Revenue Provincial Budget According to the provincial budget, overall expenditure in all four provinces is expected to rise by 19.1 percent to Rs 4,192.7 billion in FY2021, compared to revised projections of Rs 3,521.6 billion in FY2020. A higher development budget in comparison to current spending is likely to make a significant contribution. Total provincial development 89
124. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 spending is budgeted to grow by 46 .2 percent to reach Rs 1,006.1 billion during FY2021 as compared to revised estimates of Rs 688.1 billion in FY2020. In contrast, current expenditure are expected to stand at Rs 3,186.6 billion in FY2021 against the revised estimates of Rs 2,833.5 billion, reflecting a growth of 12.5 percent. The current and development spending account for 76.0 and 24.0 percent of the total expenditure, respectively. Table 4.7: Overview of Provincial Budgets (Rs billion) Items Punjab Sindh Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Baluchistan Total 2019-20 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 RE BE RE BE RE BE RE BE RE BE A. Tax Revenue 1,380.9 1,653.4 Provincial Taxes 191.1 220.9 GST on Services (transferred 4.3 by federal Govt) Share in Federal Taxes 1,185.5 1,432.5 B. Non-Tax Revenue 60.3 92.6 C. All Others 34.0 86.6 Total Revenue (A+B+C) 1,475.2 1,832.6 a) Current Expenditure 1,257.9 1,318.3 b) Development 255.0 337.0 Expenditure Total Exp (a+b) 1,512.9 1,655.3 Source: Provincial Finance Wing, Finance Division. 797.5 235.0 - 943.2 263.5 - 404.2 27.6 1.4 481.5 28.1 - 300.2 19.0 - 272.6 2,882.8 3,350.7 20.9 472.7 533.4 - 562.5 679.7 66.5 112.4 21.7 71.2 885.7 1,126.8 783.3 969.1 128.9 232.9 375.2 43.8 85.5 533.5 542.7 220.5 453.4 45.2 118.1 644.8 605.1 317.9 281.2 16.2 5.3 321.7 249.6 83.7 251.7 2,404.4 2,817.3 43.5 186.8 293.7 30.8 146.5 306.7 346.9 3,216.1 3,951.1 294.1 2,833.5 3,186.6 118.3 688.1 1,006.1 912.2 1,202.0 763.2 923.0 333.3 412.4 3,521.6 4,192.7 Provincial revenue receipts are expected to increase by 22.9 percent to Rs 3,951.1 billion in FY2021, compared to revised estimates of Rs 3,216.1 billion in FY2020. In FY2021, tax revenue, which account for 85.0 percent of total provincial revenue, are budgeted to stay at Rs 3,350.7 billion, up 16.2 percent from last year's revised estimates of Rs 2,882.8 billion. Non-tax revenue, on the other hand, are budgeted to increase by 57.2 percent to Rs 293.7 billion in FY2021 from revised estimates of Rs 186.8 billion in FY2020. Allocation of Revenues between Federal Government and Provinces According to the distribution of resources under the 7thNFC Award, federal transfers to provinces (divisible pool and straight transfers) are expected to increase by 19.6 percent to reach Rs 2,873.7 billion in FY2021 against Rs 2,402.1 billion in FY2020. Table-4.8: Transfers to Provinces (Rs billion) A. Divisible Pool Income Tax Capital Value Tax Sales Tax (Excl. GST on Services) Federal Excise (excl. Excise Duty on Natural Gas) Customs Duties (excl. Export Development Surcharge) B. Straight Transfers Gas Development Surcharge Royalty on Natural Gas Royalty on Crude Oil Excise Duty on Natural Gas C. Less Tax Refunds Total Transfers (A+B-C) Source: Budget in Brief 2020-21, Budget Wing. Finance Division 90 FY2020 R.E 2,300.5 941.6 1.5 851.9 174.0 331.5 101.6 9.8 53.9 25.1 12.7 0.0 2,402.1 FY2021 B.E 2,817.2 1,156.2 1.7 1,098.9 198.4 362.0 106.5 15.9 52.7 23.2 14.7 50.0 2,873.7
125. Fiscal Development The province-wise share in federal transfers is as follows ; Punjab (Rs 1,439.1 billion), Sindh (Rs 742.0 billion), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Rs 477.5 billion-inclusive 1 percent war on terror) and Balochistan (Rs 265.1 billion). Provincial Fiscal Operations Performance FY2020 According to the provincial Fiscal Operations, total revenue stood at Rs 3,241.0 billion in FY2020 against Rs 2,995.9 billion, representing a growth of 8.2 percent. Both tax and non-tax revenue have attributed to this rise, however, the collection under non-tax remained higher relative to tax collection. Similarly, the federal loans and grants have also witnessed a sharp increase during FY2020 owing to higher current and development grants. Table 4.9: Overview of Provincial Fiscal Operations Items FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 A. Tax Revenue 1,365.7 1,596.2 1,744.5 2,145.4 2,287.6 Provincial Taxes 150.7 190.0 205.8 283.3 321.8 Share in Federal Taxes 1,215.0 1,406.3 1,538.7 1,862.2 1,965.8 B. Non-Tax Revenue 71.3 49.4 75.6 93.3 79.5 C. All Others 107.4 121.8 82.3 55.1 61.2 Total Revenue (A+B+C) 1,544.4 1,767.4 1,902.4 2,293.9 2,428.2 a) Current Expenditure 1,110.0 1,187.4 1,400.1 1,559.8 1,739.3 b) Development 371.5 430.5 498.8 592.4 852.2 Expenditure (PSDP) c) Statistical discrepancy 10.1 -47.4 -83.8 -65.7 -147.4 Total Exp (a+b+c) 1,491.7 1,570.5 1,815.1 2,086.5 2,444.1 Source: Fiscal Operations (various issues), Budget Wing. Finance Division Rs billion July-March FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2020 FY2021 2,618.8 401.4 2,217.4 146.7 173.0 2,938.5 2,080.7 880.1 2,799.6 401.8 2,397.8 86.3 110.0 2,995.9 2,350.8 506.2 2,917.6 413.6 2,504.0 102.4 221.0 3,241.0 2,541.9 622.0 2,252.8 321.2 1,931.6 79.6 134.9 2,467.4 1,741.8 382.0 2,355.9 370.1 1,985.8 82.2 146.3 2,584.3 1,948.4 390.0 -4.8 2,956.1 -51.1 2,805.9 -147.9 3,016.1 -50.6 2,073.3 -166.8 2,171.6 Within the total revenue collection, provincial own receipts grew by 5.7 percent to Rs 516.0 billion in FY2020 against Rs 488.1 billion in FY2019. Whereas the federal transfers to provinces stood at Rs 2,504.0 billion during FY2020 as compared to Rs 2,397.8 billion in FY2019, showing an increase of 4.4 percent. In terms of contribution, the share of federal transfers stood at 77.3 percent while provincial own revenue receipts (tax and non-tax) contributed 15.9 percent in total revenue during FY2020. Fig:4.11- Contribution in Total Provincial Revenues (%) Own Revenue Receipts Federal Transfers Federal Loan and Grants 7.0 6.9 4.3 2.4 2.5 5.9 3.7 6.8 78.7 79.6 80.9 81.2 81.0 75.5 80.0 77.3 14.4 13.5 14.8 16.4 16.5 18.7 16.3 15.9 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 Source: Pakistan Fiscal Operations 91
126. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Within provincial own revenue receipts , provincial taxes grew by 2.9 percent to Rs 413.6 billion in FY2020 as compared to Rs 401.8 billion in FY2019. The increase in provincial tax collection is largely attributed to 37.4 percent collection from property tax and 14.8 percent from the sales tax on services GST. In contrast, due to a slowdown in economic activity in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, revenue from excise duty, stamp duty and motor vehicles tax fell sharply over the period under review. Fig:4.12- Composition of Provincial Revenues (Rs billion) Share in Federal Taxes Federal Loans & Grants Non-Tax Revenue Provincial Taxes 4,000 3,200 2,400 1,600 800 0 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 Source: Pakistan Fiscal Operations The non-tax revenue registered a growth of 18.6 percent to reach Rs 102.4 billion during FY2020 against the collection of Rs 86.3 billion in the same period of FY2019.A major contribution to this rise is largely emanated from higher collection from irrigation followed by profit from hydroelectricity, which grew by 56.1 percent and 22.1 percent, respectively during the period under review. Fig:4.13- Provincial Expenditure (Rs.billion) Current Expenditure Development Expenditure(PSDP) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 FY2013 FY2014 Source: Pakistan Fiscal Operations FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 The provincial expenditure (excluding statistical discrepancy) grew by 10.7 percent in FY2020, following a 3.5 percent decline in FY2019. In absolute terms, total provincial expenditure increased to Rs 3,164 billion in FY2020 against Rs 2,857 billion in FY2019. Both current and development spending contributed to the rise in total spending during FY2020, however, current spending increased at a slower rate as compared to FY2019. The current expenditure grew by 8.1 percent in FY2020 to stand at Rs 2,541.9 billion against Rs 2,350.8 billion in FY2019. Development spending, on the other hand, 92
127. Fiscal Development rebounded in FY2020 after a steep decline of 42 .5 percent in FY2019. The developing expenditure increased from Rs 506.2 billion in FY2019 to Rs 622.0 billion in FY2020, showing a considerable growth of 22.9 percent. As a result, the provinces posted a cumulative surplus of Rs 224.9 billion in FY2020 against the surplus of Rs 190.0 billion in FY2019, in line with the federal government's fiscal consolidation efforts. Performance (July-March, FY2021) During July-March, FY2021, all the four provinces posted a combined surplus of Rs 412.7 billion against Rs 394.1 billion in the same period of last year. Punjab contributed the most to this surplus with Rs 244.8 billion followed by Sindh (Rs 67.4 billion), Balochistan (Rs 65.9 billion) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Rs 34.5 billion). Total provincial revenue grew by 4.7 percent to Rs 2,584.3 billion during July-March, FY2021as compared to Rs 2,467.4 billion in the same period of FY2020. Within the total revenue, tax revenue (provincial taxes and federal transfers) increased by 4.6 percent to reach Rs 2,355.9 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year against Rs 2,252.8 billion in the same period of last year. In tax revenue, a significant part comes from the federal side in terms of provincial share. Its contribution in total provincial revenue has reduced to 76.8 percent in July-March, FY2021 from 78.3 percent recorded in the same period last year, still all the four provinces remained heavily dependent on federal transfers. On the other hand, the share of provincial taxes in total provincial revenue has been increased from 13.0 percent in July-March, FY2020 to 14.3 percent in the same period of the current fiscal year. In absolute terms, the federal transfer to provinces stood at Rs 1,985.8 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 1,931.6 billion in the comparable period of last year. Similarly, the provincial own revenue receipts (provincial taxes and non-tax revenue) performed well as its contribution in revenues grew from 16.2 percent to 17.5 percent during the period under review. In absolute terms, provincial own revenue receipts increased to Rs 452.3 billion during July-March, FY2021 from Rs 400.8 billion in the same period of last year, showing a growth of 12.8 percent. The provincial tax collection grew by 15.2 percent during July-March, FY2021 against the growth of 11.6 percent registered in the same period of last year. Within provincial taxes, major revenue spinners were general sales tax on services (GSTS) and motor vehicles tax which grew by 23.6 percent and 22.7 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the growth in non-tax collection slowed down during July-March, FY2021 as it only grew by 3.3 percent against the growth of 21.9 percent recorded in the same period of last year. On the expenditure side, total provincial expenditure (excluding statistical discrepancy) increased by 10.1 percent to Rs 2,338.4 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 2,123.9 billion in the same period of last year. The increase in expenditure is mainly observed on account of higher current expenditure during the year. The current expenditure increased by 11.9 percent to Rs 1,948.4 billion during July-March, FY2021 against Rs 1741.8 billion in the same period of last year. COVID-19 related additional spending has put significant pressure on provincial expenditure during the year. 93
128. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Conversely , development expenditure grew at a slower pace as it increased by 2.1 percent during July-March, FY2021 against the sharp rise of 38.4 percent witnessed in the same period of last year. In absolute terms, development expenditure stood at Rs 390.0 billion in July-March, FY2021 as compared to Rs 382.0 billion in the same period of last year. Public Financial Management Reforms in the Federal Government The Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 2019 provides an effective cash management system for all public entities and special purpose funds leading to Treasury Single Account (TSA). The fundamental objectives and principles are to anticipate the cash needs of the Government, ensure availability of cash when it is required, manage cash balance in the Government bank accounts effectively and neutralize the impact of the Government’s cash flows on the domestic banking sector. Moreover, it provides for establishing institutional and administrative arrangements needed to manage an effective cash management system, placement of all public money into the treasury single account, gradual expansion of budgetary and accounting framework to all autonomous entities, usage of idle cash of the autonomous entities and require all principal accounting officers to provide the information deemed necessary for the effective operation of the cash management and treasury single account system. The PFM Act, 2019 provides a number of measures to ensure its effective implementation. The Federal Government is required to maintain its Federal Consolidated Fund Account and the Public Account of the Federation in the State Bank of Pakistan. No authority shall transfer public money for investment or deposit from a government account to other bank account without prior approval from the Federal Government. In pursuance of these legal provisions, Cash Management and Treasury Single Account (CM&TSA) Rules, 2020 were promulgated in July 2020 which are applicable on Ministries, Divisions, Attached Departments, Sub-Ordinate Offices (MDAS) and other entities of the Federal Government, stipulating that the Existing Bank Accounts being maintained in commercial banks by MDAS will be closed and balances therein will be transferred to Central Account No.1 (Non-Food). Moreover, no new commercial bank accounts will be opened. Furthermore, under the Rules ibid, Cash Forecasting on a two-month rolling basis will be undertaken. In this regard, 163 MDAS were notified under Treasury Single Account (TSA) System and Finance Division issued detailed instruction and guidelines to all Ministries/Divisions for closure of bank accounts and transfer of balances as per provision of Act. The implementation is underway. Similarly, the budget Wing has framed regulation titled “Financial Management and Powers of Principal Accounting Officers Regulations, 2021”. These regulations superseded the System of Financial Control and Budgeting (2006). There shall be Chief Finance and Accounts Officer (CFAO) positioned in Ministries/Divisions to assist the PAO in financial management. Another important step is that the position of Chief Internal Auditor (CIA) shall be created who shall work under the direct supervision of the PAO. 94
129. Fiscal Development Conclusion Despite significant challenges due to additional expenditures to combat the negative impact of COVID-19 , the government's fiscal consolidation efforts contributed in maintaining fiscal discipline, increasing revenues and controlling expenditures, resulting in improved fiscal performance in the first nine months of FY2021. However, there are certain risks to fiscal performance which largely depend on the domestic and international evolution of COVID-19. During the first three quarters of the current fiscal year, the government has successfully contained the fiscal deficit to 3.5 percent of GDP, down from 4.1 percent of GDP in the same period last year, while the primary balance remained in surplus and stood at Rs 451.8 billion during July-March, FY2021, compared to a surplus of Rs 193.5 billion in the previous year. Similarly, FBR tax collection achieved double-digit growth in the first ten months of the current fiscal year and surpassed the target by more than 100 billion (for first ten month of CFY2021). The effective revenue mobilization and prudent expenditure management strategy would be supportive in maintaining the fiscal deficit within reasonable limits during the current fiscal year. 95
130.                              
131. Chapter 5 Money and Credit Central banks across the world are responsible for maintaining price stability as their prime objective , along with safeguarding the stability of the financial system. The ultimate objective of an effective monetary policy is low and stable inflation, which is prerequisite for sustainable economic growth. It ensures confidence of the individuals and businesses to make rational economic decisions relating to consumption, saving and investment, which have spillover effect on economic growth and employment opportunities in long run, thus improving overall economic welfare of the country. The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented recessionary impact on global GDP in 2020. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, central banks around the world have pursued highly accommodative monetary policy to ease financial conditions in order to maintain the flow of credit to households and firms and thus support aggregate demand. At the same time, fiscal authorities provided relief through cash transfers, targeted social safety net programmes and wage subsidies. In response to these timely and unprecedented policy supports, global outlook has improved. After an estimated contraction of 3.3 percent in 2020, the global economy is projected to grow at 6 percent in 2021 before moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022. In sum, the COVID-19 recessionary impact is likely to lower than the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, the recovery is expected to be unsynchronized and uneven across advanced, emerging market and developing economies. There is a risk that financial conditions in emerging market economies may tighten, especially if policymakers in advanced economies take steps toward policy normalization1. The outlook of the appropriate policy stance may vary by country, stage of pandemic, strength of recovery and structural characteristics of an economy. If pandemic continues, policies should first focus on escaping the crisis, prioritizing health care spending, providing well-targeted fiscal support and maintain accommodative monetary policy while monitoring financial stability risks2. Then, as the recovery takes hold, policymakers may think about policy normalization, with focus on boosting productive capacity and incentivizing efficient allocation of productive resources. 1 2 Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021, IMF
132. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Monetary Policy Stance in Pakistan In January 2018 , State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has changed its monetary policy stance from accommodative to contractionary to correct the macroeconomic imbalances accumulated during the past years. Policy rate was cumulative increased by 750 bps from 5.75 to 13.25 percent till July 2019. This combined with fiscal consolidation efforts and exchange rate adjustment, helped to contain demand pressures and improve overall country’s external position during first eight months of FY2020. Table-5.1: Policy Rate w.e.f May-16 Jan-18 May-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jul-19 12/03/2020 25/03/2020 16/04/2020 16/05/2020 26/06/2020 till date Source: State Bank of Pakistan Policy rate 5.75 6.0 6.5 7.5 8.5 10.0 10.25 10.75 12.25 13.25 12.50 11.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 After COVID-19 outbreak in February 2020, SBP proactively changed its policy stance, reducing the policy rate by a cumulative 625 bps from 13.25 to 7.0 percent, within almost 3 months between March and June 2020, largest policy rate cut among emerging market economies (Fig - 5.2).The emergency monetary policy decisions were supported by significant reduction in inflation momentum and marked slowdown in domestic demand, softening food prices, decades low global oil prices and noticeable decline in inflation expectations. The target of monetary policy was shifted towards supporting growth and employment during the pandemic. 16 Fig-5.1: Monetary Policy Performance 1000 500 12 0 -500 8 -1000 Current Account Balance (Million US$, rhs) Y0Y CPI Inflation Policy rate 4 -1500 -2000 0 -2500 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 During FY2021, SBP has continued with accommodative monetary policy stance with 7.0 percent policy rate which supports the economic recovery while keeping inflation expectations under-control and safeguarding financial stability. Besides sharply lowering of the borrowing cost, SBP introduced a host of measures aimed at supporting the businesses and household during the challenging times. The objective of these time bound, targeted measures was to keep the business afloat and 98
133. Money and Credit avoid insolvencies , support export oriented industries, incentivise investment and provide uninterrupted financial services (Box-I). These measures, along with fiscal stimulus package especially for revival of construction, led to a quick turnaround in economic activity in the country. 14 Fig-5.2: Monetary Policy Response to COVID-19 in Emerging Markets since Feb-20 12 Feb-20 Percent 10 Current rate 8 6 4 2 Egypt Pakistan Ukraine Mexico Sri Lanka Vietnam Russia India Bangladesh Source: cbrates.com South Africa Indonesia China Jordon Phillipines Malaysia Brazil 0 Box-I: SBP’s Policy Response during the Coronavirus Pandemic ▪ The first COVID-19 case was detected in Pakistan on February 26 and by March 19, domestic lockdowns had come into effect; countries across the world were also adopting similar mobility restrictions. At this point, the SBP recognized the acute disruptions in business activity and supply chains, which was severely impacting sales and cash flows of both local and export-oriented firms. These challenges necessitated an immediate and forceful policy response to address the developing liquidity constraints as well as prevent large-scale insolvencies and layoffs. ▪ To counter the negative fallout of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, SBP took a number of measures. Policy Matrix for COVID-19 Purpose Measure Brief Summary  Facilitate Healthcare Sector Refinance Facility Combat COVID (RFCC) 1. Financing made available by SBP at 0% to banks, with maximum end-user rate of 3 percent, for hospitals to purchase equipment to detect, contain to and treat COVID patients. RFCC subsequently expanded to allow purchases to treat non-COVID patients too and for local manufacturers of PPE. Per-party limit=Rs 500 million, 5 year tenor  2. Advance payment and open account imports allowed, without any limit, to purchase medical equipment, medicines & related items for COVID-19 Ease in Import Procedures for Medical Equipment  Facilitate Exporters 1. Exporters availing EFS allowed 12 months to export goods, from 6 months. Performance requirement of Relaxation under EFS & 2X of credit availed is reduced to 1.5X for FY2020 LTFF Performance & and FY2021 Eligibility Criteria 2. Eligibility criteria for LTFF reduced from exports worth 50%, or $5 million, of total sales, to 40% or 99
134. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 $4 million, from January 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020. Also, the projected exports performance will be measured in 5 years, instead of 4 3. Eligibility criteria for LTFF was extended to all exporting sectors (in January 2020) and per project limit was doubled to Rs 5 billion. LTFF end-user rate was reduced from 6% to 5% for all sectors  4. Time period for realization of exports proceeds extended from 180 days to 270 days, where the Extension in realization delay is related to COVID-19, for receipts falling due period of export proceeds between January - June 2020  5. Exporters can directly dispatch shipping documents of consignment to foreign buyers without any limit, subject to some conditions, Dispatch of shipping against earlier limit of consignments of up to documents by exporters $100,000  6. Existing limit of $ 10,000 per invoice for advance payment extended to $ 25,000 for manufacturing & Ease in advance payment industrial concerns and commercial importers for restrictions for importers import of raw material, spare parts and machinery 7. Time period for imports against advance payment extended from 120 days to 210 days 1. Rozgar Scheme provided (from April 2020 till September 2020, with disbursements till November 2020) loans at maximum end-user rate of 3% to businesses for wages expenses, provided they commit to not lay off workers  Liquidity Support for Firms & Individuals 100 2. The government introduced a Risk Sharing Facility (RSF) for the Rozgar Scheme, under which it will bear 60% first loss on disbursed portfolio (principal Refinance schemes for portion only) for SMEs and small corporates wage support (Rozgar (turnover of <Rs 2bn) Scheme) and capital investment (TERF) 3. TERF provides loans at maximum end user rate of 5% to businesses to purchase locally manufactured or imported machinery for new investment and BMR. Maximum loan size of Rs 5 billion and tenor of 10 years. Scheme valid from March 2020 to March 2021. Policy rate cuts 4. The SBP cut the policy rate by a cumulative 625 bps in less than 3 months, during March to May 2020. This led to downward re-pricing of significant amount of loans Increase in Loan Limits 5. Limits for housing finance and microenterprise loans from MFBs revised up to Rs 3 million from Rs 1 million and for general loans to Rs 0.35 million from Rs 0.15 million. Annual income eligibility for
135. Money and Credit general loans and housing loans increased up to Rs 1 .2 million and Rs 1.5 million. Portfolio limit for lending against gold collateral increased to 50% from 35%. Per party limit for SME loans permanently raised to Rs 180 million from Rs 125 million Principal Deferments Loan Rescheduling IndustrySpecific Support Measures 6. Banks told to defer principal repayment for up to 1 year of consumer financing for borrowers that & request so, w/o charging additional fee or mark-up. Loans for borrowers needing more help were to be restructured Construction industry 1. Banks to ensure that housing and construction financing shall be at least 5 percent of their domestic private sector credit by December 2021 Banking industry 2. Ease in regulations related to housing & consumer finance, capital ratios, margin requirements & booking of capital losses (equities), digital onboarding of merchants, biometric verification, adoption of IFRS-9 Impact of SBP’s major relief measures Approved Financing Rs billion Cumulative position as of SBP’s Rozgar Scheme 238.2 13-Nov-20 Loan Deferrals & Restructuring after COVID Outbreak 910.8 16-Apr-21 Refinance Scheme to Combat COVID (RFCC) 12.6 22-Apr-21 Temporary Economic Relief Facility (TERF) 435.7 31-Mar-21 Source: State Bank of Pakistan ▪ It is important to note that the SBP’s COVID-related support measures are temporary and targeted and their implementation is being closely monitored. The refinance schemes are being implemented through banks and aimed at directly supporting businesses and encouraging capital investments. Microfinance and SME borrowers have also benefitted from these schemes. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Recent Monetary and Credit Developments During the period 01st July-30th April, FY2021 Broad Money (M2) witnessed expansion of Rs 1,664.8 billion (growth of 8.0 percent) against Rs 1,698.1 billion (growth of 9.5 percent) during same period last year. Growth in M2 mainly contributed by Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of banking system. NFA’s point contribution stood at 4.5 percent compared to 5.2 percent last year. Whereas, Net Domestic Assets (NDA) point contribution remained 3.4 percent as compared to 4.3 percent in last year. 101
136. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table-5 .2: Profile of Monetary Indicators FY2020 (Stocks) 30-April-21 Net Foreign Assets(NFA) -516.2 950.2 Net Domestic Assets(NDA) 21,424.2 714.6 Net Government Borrowing 14,547.2 653.0 Borrowing for budgetary support 13,748.3 675.9 From SBP 6,538.8 -1,164.7 from Scheduled banks 7,209.5 1,840.6 Credit to Private Sector 6,862.9 454.5 Credit to PSEs 1,490.5 -26.6 Broad Money 20,908.0 1,664.8 Reserve Money 7,679.8 550.4 Growth in M2 (%) 17.5 8.0 Reserve Money Growth (%) 16.8 7.2 Source: Weekly Profile of Monetary Aggregates, State Bank of Pakistan Rs billion 01-May-20 931.1 767.0 1,092.2 1,171.3 -642.2 1,813.4 318.5 -5.3 1,698.1 582.4 9.5 8.9 Within Broad Money, the NFA of the banking system increased by Rs 950.2 billion against expansion of Rs 931.1 billion last year, shows improved balance of payment position. Within NFA, NFA of SBP increased by Rs 782.2 billion against expansion of Rs 966.5 billion last year. The increase in SBP’s NFA was mainly on the back of increase in bilateral inflows from China, other multilateral loans and grants, decrease in foreign liabilities and build in Foreign Exchange (FXs) reserves. On the other hand, NFA of scheduled bank witnessed significant expansion of Rs 168.0 billion against contraction of Rs 35.4 billion last year, higher inflows in NFA of banks primarily contributed by surplus in current account balance. On the other hand, NDA of banking system increased by Rs 714.6 billion compared to expansion of Rs 767.0 billion last year. NDA of SBP decreased by Rs 557.5 billion compared to contraction of Rs 527.5 billion last year, reflect significant retirement by government to SBP under budgetary borrowing. This shows continuation of government adherence to zero borrowing from central bank. NDA of scheduled banks increased by Rs 1,272.1 billion against expansion of Rs 1,294.5 billion last year, on the back of higher private sector credit offtake from scheduled banks, which more than offset the impact of increase in retirement under commodity operations and other items on the NDA of the banking system. Reserve Money increased by Rs 550.4 billion (growth of 7.2 percent) during the period under review against Rs 582.4 billion (growth of 8.9 percent) in comparable period last year. Reserve Money growth remained low during CFY on account of decline in SBP’s NDA. This was due to budgetary retirement to SBP which more than offset the considerable increase in the SBP’ claims on scheduled banks on accounts of refinance schemes. 102
137. Money and Credit Fig-5 .3:Net Foreign Asset Flows Stocks 1300 800 300 -200 -700 -1200 -1700 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 Jul-30 Apr FY2021 Jul-01 May FY2020 Credit to Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) observed retirement of Rs 26.6 billion compared to retirement of Rs 5.3 billion during comparable period last year. Government Bank Borrowing During the period 01st July-30th April, FY2021 net government sector borrowing stood at Rs 653.0 billion against the borrowing of Rs 1,092.2 billion last year. Government has borrowed Rs 675.9 billion for budgetary support compared to Rs 1,171.3 billion during corresponding period last year. Within budgetary support, government has retired Rs 1,164.7 billion to SBP as compared retirement of Rs 642.2 billion in the same period last year. On the contrary, government has borrowed Rs 1,840.6 billion from scheduled banks as compared to borrowing of Rs 1,813.4 billion last year. As the government adhered to its commitment of zero fresh borrowing from the central bank and relied on scheduled banks and nonbanks for its financing needs. During July-March, FY2021 Government has financed around 67 percent of fiscal deficit from domestic sources. Within domestic sources, bank and non-bank financing share remained 58 and 42, percent respectively. Fig-5.4: Government Borrowings (Flows, Rs billion) From SBP From Scheduled banks Total borrowings (rhs) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 500 0 0 -1,000 -500 -2,000 -1,000 -3,000 -1,500 -4,000 -2,000 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 (Jul-30 Apr) FY2021 (Jul-01 May) FY2020 103
138. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Commodity Finance Commodity operation means advances provided either to government , public sector corporations or private sector for the procurement of commodities such as cotton, rice, wheat, sugar, fertilizer etc. Both federal and provincial governments borrow from scheduled banks to finance their purchases of commodities3. The proceeds from the sale of such commodities are subsequently used to retire commodity borrowing. The outstanding stock of commodity finance posted growth of 7.5 percent in FY2020 and reached to Rs 813.4 billion against Rs 756 billion (negative growth of 7.7 percent) last year. In terms of flows, commodity finance observed a net borrowing of Rs 57.0 billion in FY2020 against retirement of Rs 63.3 billion in FY2019. Commodity financing borrowed amount during FY2020 primarily reflected the borrowing of Rs 43.1 billion by wheat procurement agencies from banking system as compared to retirement of Rs 73.1 billion in FY2019. Fig-5.5: Commodity Finance 150 900 700 100 500 50 300 0 100 -100 -50 Flows Stocks (rhs) -300 -100 -500 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 Jul-30 Apr FY2021 Jul-01 May FY2020 During the period 01 July-30th April, FY2021 loans for commodity finance observed a net retirement of Rs 28.8 billion as compared to net retirement of Rs 82.9 billion last year. The outstanding stock of commodity finance stood at Rs 785 billion as on 30th April, FY2021 as compared to Rs 674 billion in same period last year. During 01st July-31st March, FY2021, loans for wheat financing witnessed a net retirement of Rs 110.8 billion against the retirement of Rs 139.4 billion during same period last year. The outstanding stock of wheat increased to Rs 586.5 billion as compared to Rs 514.8 billion in comparable period last year. Significant retirement of wheat loans are the major contributor in commodity financing loans retirement. Loans for sugar financing stood at Rs 1.1 billion against borrowing of Rs 6.2 billion last year. Fertilizer financing observed net retirement of Rs 2.9 billion during the period under review as compared to net retirement of Rs 3.3 billion last year. On the contrary, the rice financing observed net borrowing of Rs 8 million against the net retirement of 3 Glossary, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, SBP 104
139. Money and Credit Rs 835 million last year . Cotton financing shows net borrowing of Rs 94 million as compared to net borrowing of Rs 130 million last year. Credit to Private Sector4 During FY2020, credit to private sector reduced significantly to Rs 196.4 billion as compared to Rs 693.5 billion in FY2019. Private sector credit plummeted in FY2020 on account of high cost of borrowing, surplus inventories, low industrial production, business closures due to COVID related smart lockdown strategy, slow economic activities and uncertainty about COVID trajectory. During fourth quarter of FY2020, SBP has announced number of concessionary refinancing schemes, despite this, net addition in the outstanding amount of credit is not large and higher net retirement has been observed, thus overall credit remained decelerated during FY2020. During the period 01st July-30th April, FY2021, overall private sector credit observed expansion of Rs 454.5 billion against Rs 318.5 billion last year, posted growth of 42.7 percent in flow terms. On average, it has posted growth of 6.6 percent compared to growth of 4.8 percent last year. On Year on Year (YoY) basis, it has posted growth of 4.8 percent as on 30th April, 2021. During FY2021, host of positive factors plays significant role in credit expansion: accommodative policy environment, number of concessionary refinancing schemes introduced by SBP, overall improved business environment, negative real interest rate and significant growth in LSM. Fig-5.6: Credit to Private Sector 900 flows (Rs Billion) Private sector /GDP (rhs) 800 700 25 20 600 500 15 400 300 10 200 100 5 0 -100 0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 Sectoral Analysis Overall credit witnessed expansion of Rs 441.5 billion (growth of 7.1 percent) during July-March, FY2021 compared to Rs 204.9 billion (growth of 3.4 percent) last year. Loans to private sector businesses receive 63 percent share of total credit and stood at Rs 280.0 4Islamic Financing, Advances (against Murabaha etc), Inventories and other related Items previously reported under Other Assets have been reclassified as credit to private sector. 105
140. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 billion . Sectors which received major share of total loans included manufacturing, which received 58.5 percent share of total loans (Rs 163.8 billion), of which textile 13.5 percent (Rs 37.9 billion) followed by electricity, gas steam & air condition supply 20.4 percent (Rs 57.0 billion), wholesale & retail trade 4.9 percent (Rs 13.6 billion), construction 3.4 percent (Rs 8.9 billion) and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.5 percent (Rs 7.0 billion). Quarter wise distribution revealed that private sector credit observed net retirement during first quarter on account of higher retirement under working capital loans on the back of sales tax refunds by the government, debt relief measures (loan deferment and restructuring), availability of surplus carry-over stocks and muted input costs helped businesses in retiring their short-term loans5. Table- 5.3: Credit to Private Sector Sectors Overall Credit (1 to 5) 1. Loans to Private Sector 5,173.5 Business A. Agriculture 301.5 B. Mining and Quarrying 68.0 C. Manufacturing 3,128.9 Textiles 919.6 D. Electricity, gas, steam 484.0 and air conditioning supply E. Water supply, sewerage, 20.3 waste management and remediation activities F. Construction 153.7 G. Wholesale and retail 477.3 trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles H. Transportation and 106.6 Storage I. Accommodation and food 34.5 service activities J. Information and 140.6 Communication K. Real estate activities 28.3 L. Adminstrative and 75.4 support service activities M. Education 20.7 N. Human health and social 11.3 work activities O. Arts, entertainment and 0.8 recreation P. Other service activities 69.2 2. Trust Funds and Non 18.5 Profit Organizations 3. Personal 674.3 4. Others 3.2 5. Investment in Security 217.2 & Shares of Private Sector Source: State Bank of Pakistan 5 YoY Growth Jun-20 Mar-21 1.5 5.2 5,360.8 5,271.0 5,551.1 187.3 280.0 3.6 5.3 1.9 3.5 286.3 75.9 3,366.6 1,111.1 531.4 280.2 83.0 3,290.3 1,088.4 491.8 281.8 84.6 3,454.1 1,126.3 548.9 -15.2 7.9 237.7 191.5 47.4 1.6 1.6 163.8 37.9 57.0 -5.0 11.7 7.6 20.8 9.8 0.6 2.0 5.0 3.5 11.6 -7.1 22.1 5.2 18.4 1.6 -1.6 11.5 2.6 1.4 3.3 13.7 15.1 22.1 -6.6 7.0 -32.6 46.3 -25.6 61.5 124.3 433.8 129.6 429.3 138.5 442.9 -29.4 -43.5 8.9 13.6 -19.1 -9.1 6.9 3.2 -15.7 -10.0 11.4 2.1 118.8 119.6 119.4 12.2 -0.2 11.4 -0.1 12.2 0.5 43.5 37.0 43.3 9.1 6.3 26.4 17.0 7.5 -0.5 140.1 159.2 162.0 -0.5 2.7 -0.3 1.7 13.2 15.6 31.0 59.7 29.4 62.2 26.9 59.6 2.7 -15.7 -2.6 -2.6 9.4 -20.8 -8.8 -4.2 4.0 -17.5 -13.3 -0.2 18.8 12.1 22.5 14.6 29.0 18.1 -1.9 0.8 6.5 3.5 -9.3 7.3 29.0 23.7 8.8 29.3 54.7 49.0 2.6 2.5 3.4 1.8 0.9 223.9 34.8 215.3 31.2 50.4 18.4 53.5 17.9 62.8 15.7 -18.8 -0.1 9.3 -2.2 -27.2 -0.5 17.5 -12.2 -22.7 -2.8 24.7 -14.2 708.1 675.7 836.3 33.8 160.6 5.0 23.8 0.2 18.1 1.5 1.5 4.3 -1.7 2.8 -53.2 178.3 -52.0 185.9 202.8 214.0 214.3 -14.4 0.3 -6.6 0.2 -1.5 5.7 First Quarterly Report FY2021, SBP 106 Rs billion Average Growth End Month Stocks Jul-Mar (Flows) Rates Jun-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Mar-21 2019-20 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 6,086.6 6,291.5 6,180.2 6,621.7 204.9 441.5 3.4 7.1
141. Money and Credit During second and third quarter of CFY , considerable higher credit offtake has been observed which more than offset the net loan retirements in the first quarter. Higher credit demand mainly driven for fixed investment loans under subsidized Long Term Finance Facility (LTFF) and Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) reflects increase in economic activities. Table-5.4: Loans Classified by Borrowers (By Type of Finance)P based on ISIC 4 Classifications Rs billion of Private Sector Businesses Total credit Jul-Mar Jul-Mar FY2020 FY2021 187.3 280.2 Working capital Jul-Mar Jul-Mar FY2020 FY2021 28.8 65.1 Fixed investment Jul-Mar Jul-Mar FY2020 FY2021 (5.2) 127.4 Trade financing Jul-Mar Jul-Mar FY2020 FY2021 163.8 55.3 Loans to Private Sector Business o/w: EFS 109.2 68.7 109.2 68.7 _ _ _ _ LTFF (including TERF) 37.0 110.4 _ _ 37.0 110.4 _ _ Agriculture, forestry and (15.2) 1.6 (6.6) 5.9 (7.7) (4.9) (1.0) 0.6 fishing Mining and quarrying 7.9 1.6 (0.1) (1.3) 4.7 5.2 3.3 (2.3) Manufacturing 237.7 160.8 42.9 24.7 19.1 90.6 175.7 45.5 Manufacture of food 21.1 124.8 15.8 89.2 (9.9) 25.7 15.3 9.9 products Manufacture of grain mill (27.2) 42.7 (36.4) 28.3 (0.6) 1.1 9.8 13.3 products Wheat Processing (30.4) (1.9) (29.1) (2.4) (0.0) 0.4 (1.2) (0.0) Rice Processing 19.1 36.7 8.4 24.2 0.2 1.3 10.5 11.2 Manufacture of sugar 49.4 72.7 48.7 61.0 (3.4) 9.7 4.1 2.1 Manufacture of textiles 191.5 36.1 42.3 (45.0) 26.2 41.3 123.0 39.8 Manufacture of basic 2.3 19.9 (1.2) 5.9 2.9 12.3 0.6 1.7 pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations Electricity, gas, steam 47.4 57.3 45.6 16.4 3.8 41.3 (2.0) (0.4) and air conditioning supply Water supply; sewerage, (6.6) 7.0 (1.9) 3.8 (0.6) 1.3 (4.1) 1.9 waste management and remediation activities Construction (29.4) (7.6) (18.5) 5.1 (9.6) (12.3) (1.3) (0.4) Wholesale and retail (43.5) 13.3 (33.0) 5.7 (5.8) 6.2 (4.7) 1.4 trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Transportation and 12.2 (0.2) 19.0 0.0 (6.9) (0.6) 0.1 0.4 storage Accommodation and 9.1 4.9 7.7 0.6 (0.2) 4.1 1.5 0.2 food service activities Information and (0.5) 2.6 (11.0) 4.6 9.8 (1.7) 0.7 (0.3) communication Real estate activities 2.7 (6.5) 3.5 (0.9) (0.8) (5.6) Professional, scientific (0.7) 3.4 1.0 (0.7) (0.2) 0.3 (1.5) 3.9 and technical activities Administrative and (15.7) (3.0) (6.5) (5.1) (6.9) 2.7 (2.3) (0.6) support service activities Education (1.9) 3.2 (2.0) 4.7 0.1 (1.6) 0.1 Human health and social 0.8 2.0 (0.6) 1.5 1.6 0.6 (0.2) (0.1) work activities Arts, entertainment and 1.8 0.9 1.9 (1.5) (0.1) 2.3 recreation Other service activities (18.8) 6.4 (12.7) 1.6 (5.7) (0.5) (0.5) 5.4 *Total loans during Jul-Mar, FY2021 include Rs 32.2 billion in construction financing after the revision in data on credit/loans from June 2020 onwards due to the inter-sectoral adjustment in private sector business. Construction finance includes both working capital and fixed investment loans provided by banks to private sector for construction purposes. See S&DWD Circular Letter No. DS.MFS. 013814/2020 and IH&SMEFD Circular Letter No. 28 of 2020 for details. Source: State Bank of Pakistan 107
142. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 By type of finance , working capital loans observed net borrowing of Rs 65.1 billion during July-March, FY2021 against borrowing of Rs 28.8 billion during same period last year. Sector wise distribution revealed that under working capital loans, manufacturing sector has borrowed Rs 24.7 billion against the borrowing of Rs 42.9 billion last year. Within manufacturing, textile sector retired Rs 45.0 billion against the borrowing of Rs 42.3 billion last year. Textile sector has retired higher short term loans on account of 13 percent higher export proceeds in rupee terms and weak credit demand on account of surplus carry-over stock. Under Export Finance Scheme (EFS), textile sector has borrowed Rs 44.5 billion as compared to Rs 71.0 billion last year. Under working capital loans, usually higher credit offtake is observed during second quarter, primarily explained as seasonal factor - rice and sugar sectors usually retired their short term loans during first quarter and borrowed in second quarter, mainly to procure inputs and raw materials. 300.0 Fig-5.7:Monthly Flows Loans to Private Businesses Rs Billion WALR (rhs) 16.0 250.0 14.0 200.0 12.0 150.0 10.0 100.0 8.0 50.0 6.0 0.0 -50.0 4.0 -100.0 2.0 -150.0 0.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY20 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY21 Fixed investment loans increased by Rs 127.4 billion during July-March, FY2021 against the retirement of Rs 5.2 billion last year. Within fixed investment loans, manufacturing sector availed long term loans of Rs 90.6 billion compared to Rs 19.1 billion last year. Higher credit demand for manufacturing sector was mainly driven by sub-sectors including food products, textile and pharmaceutical. Quadrupled borrowing under fixed investment loans borne from LTFF and TERF schemes. Under non-manufacturing sector, electricity, gas steam and air condition supply availed higher credit during the period under review. Under LTFF and TERF schemes, loans disbursement increased to Rs 110.4 billion during July-March, FY2021 as compared to Rs 37.0 billion during corresponding period last year. Loans to manufacturing sector increased by Rs 93.6 billion compared to Rs 34.2 billion last year. Within Manufacturing, textile sector has availed Rs 56.3 billion against Rs 26.5 billion last year, to pursue capacity expansions and Balancing, Modernization 108
143. Money and Credit and Replacement (BMR) activities. Accordingly, import of textile machinery posted significant growth of 58.2 percent on YoY basis in March, 2021. Table-5.5: Consumer Financing Description Consumer Financing 1) For house building 2) For transport i.e. purchase of car 3) Credit cards 4) Consumers durable 5) Personal loans 6) Other * Growth is calculated on the basis of Stocks. Source: State Bank of Pakistan July-March (Flows) FY2020 FY2021 15.3 131.7 -5.6 13.8 3.2 73.6 2.4 10.0 1.1 -2.7 14.4 37.2 -0.2 -0.1 Rs billion Growth (%)* FY2020 FY2021 2.8 24.6 -6.1 17.2 1.5 34.9 5.5 23.1 17.1 -33.6 7.9 19.4 -19.7 -16.7 Consumer financing flows increased by Rs 131.7 billion (growth of 24.6 percent) during July-March, FY2021 as compared to Rs 15.3 billion (growth of 2.8 percent) last year. Significant demand for consumer loans primarily driven by house building, auto and personal loans. Higher offtake remained attractive due to low cost of borrowing as Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR) reduced from 13 percent in March, 2020 to 7.7 percent in March, 2021 and SBP initiatives for housing and construction. Accordingly, house building loans posted growth of 17.2 percent as compared to negative growth of 6.1 percent last year. This higher growth is likely due to the mandatory targets set by the SBP for banks to increase their housing and construction loans to 5 percent of their overall private sector credit portfolio by December 31, 2021. SBP has taken various initiatives for promotion of housing finance in line with the government agenda to provide affordable access to housing in the country in FY2021. • Mandatory Targets for Housing Finance SBP has assigned mandatory targets to banks to extend mortgage loans and financing for developers and builders. Banks will be required to increase their housing finance portfolio to at least 5 percent of their private sector advances by the end of December 2021. Banks that fulfill or exceed their quarterly financing target are incentivized to maintain a lower Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR), in the next quarter, by an amount equivalent to incremental outstanding financing as of relevant quarter end. Those that do not meet the target will have to maintain additional CRR in the next quarter equivalent to the shortfall. • Mark-up Subsidy Scheme for Housing Finance To promote affordable housing and home ownership among low to middle-income group, SBP has introduced Government’s Mark-Up Subsidy Scheme (G-MSS) wherein subsidized financing is provided to individuals who currently do not own a house for construction or purchase of a new house. The government has allocated Rs 36 billion for payment of mark-up subsidy for financing over a period of 10 years. 109
144. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The government of Pakistan has revised and reduced mark-up subsidy scheme rates for housing finance6 as follows : Table-5.6: Pricing for Housing Loans7 Loan Tiers Amount Tier 0 Rs 2.0 million Customer Pricing 5% for first 5 years & 7% for next 5 years Bank Pricing KIBOR + 700 BPS Tier 1 Rs 2.7 million 3% for first 5 years & 5% for next 5 years KIBOR + 250 BPS Tier 2 Rs 6.0 million 5% for first 5 years & 7% for next 5 years KIBOR + 400 BPS (Spread may vary) Tier 3 Rs 10.0 million 7% for first 5 years & 9% for next 5 years For loan tenors exceeding 10 years, market rate i.e. bank pricing will be applicable for the period exceeding 10 years. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Monetary Liabilities Monetary Liabilities include currency in circulation, demand deposits, time deposits and Resident Foreign Currency Deposits. During the period 01st July-30th April, FY2021, Money supply witnessed expansion of 8.0 percent as compared to 9.5 percent in comparable period last year. On YoY basis, it posted a growth of 15.8 percent as on 30th April, 2021. Currency in Circulation (CiC) During 01st July-30th April, FY2021 CiC increased by Rs 672.6 billion (growth of 11.0 percent) as compared to expansion of Rs 996.4 billion (growth of 20.1 percent) during corresponding period last year. Currency-to-M2 ratio stood at 30.2 percent as on 30th April, 2021 as compared to 30.5 percent in comparable period last year, due to enhanced uses of digital modes of payments, have contributed towards the lower demand for holding cash. It is important to mention that the comparable period of FY2020 has observed relatively higher withdrawals of deposits after witnessing higher growth at the end of FY2019 due to Asset Declaration Scheme (ADS)8. These higher withdrawals of deposits had translated into higher growth in CiC in last year. 6 In October 2020, the GoP started providing markup subsidy facility for the construction and purchase of new homes in a bid to promote housing finance to first time home buyers at subsidized and affordable markup rates. This facility is being provided with the administrative support of Naya Pakistan Housing and Development Authority (NAPHDA) and implemented by State Bank of Pakistan through banks. https://www.sbp.org.pk/smefd/circulars/2020/C11.htm 7 IH&SMEFD Circular No. 03 of 2021, SBP 8 The ADS 2019 required the declares to deposits their cash-like assets into their respective bank accounts. That had led to a massive increase in bank deposits. 110
145. Money and Credit Table-5 .7: Monetary Aggregates Items A. Currency in Circulation Deposit of which: B. Other Deposits with SBP C. Total Demand &Time Deposits incl.RFCDs of which RFCDs Monetary Assets Stock (M2) A+B+C Memorandum Items Currency/Money Ratio Other Deposits/Money ratio Total Deposits/Money ratio RFCD/Money ratio Income Velocity of Money Rs million End June 2019 2020 4,950,039 6,142,016 30th 2019-20 5,946,464 April 2020-21 6,814,580 33,636 12,814,820 1,109,780 17,798,494 41,218 14,724,770 1,074,511 20,908,004 34,923 13,515,228 1,023,351 19,496,614 61,404 15,696,812 1,006,058 22,572,796 27.8 0.2 72.0 6.2 2.3 29.4 0.2 70.4 5.1 2.2 30.5 0.2 69.3 5.2 _ 30.2 0.3 69.5 4.5 _ Source: State Bank of Pakistan Deposits Bank deposits (including demand, time and Resident Foreign Currency Deposits (RFCD) observed expansion of Rs 972.0 billion (growth of 6.6 percent) during the period 01st July-30th April, FY2021 against Rs 700.4 billion (growth of 5.5 percent) in the same period last year. Within deposits, demand deposits increased by Rs 1,158.3 billion as compared to Rs 338.8 billion last year. Significant increase in demand deposits despite lower interest rate reflects increasing inclination towards digital payments, higher remittances inflows, personal savings due to restriction on leisure and religious travel and business deposits on account of higher refunds. On the other hand, time deposits decreased by Rs 117.8 billion against expansion of Rs 448.0 billion last year, due to reduction in returns on time deposits. Similarly, RFCDs declined by Rs 68.5 billion as compared to contraction of Rs 86.4 billion last year, on account of PKR appreciation around 10.0 percent during July-March, FY2021, which lowered incentive for savings of foreign currency. Therefore, strong growth in total deposits combined with substantial lower CiC has led to reduction in currency-to-deposits ratio to 43.0 percent as of 30th April, 2021 compared 44.0 percent during same period last year. Monetary Management The average outstanding OMOs size fell to Rs 1,048.3 billion during Q1-FY2021 compared Rs 1,337.7 billion during same quarter last year. The liquidity requirement of the commercial banks comfortably met from higher bank deposits, SBP FX’s management, retirement from the private sector, PSEs and the government commodity operation agencies. Cumulatively, these higher inflows offset the liquidity requirement to meet government borrowings needs. As a result, OMOs remained lower during Q1FY2021 compared during same period last year. 111
146. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table-5 .8: Average Outstanding Open Market Operations1 Full Year FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 1,045.8 1,228.7 (23.8) 1,103.2 Q1 1,094.0 1,440.9 1,035.2 1,337.7 Q2 861.3 1,530.5 (257.6) 912.8 Q3 961.1 1,123.5 (641.2) 892.4 Q4 1,267.2 813.1 (247.4) 1,270.0 1: The data does not include the impact of outright OMOs. Note: (+) amount means net Injections. (-) amount means net mop-up. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Rs billion FY2021 935.6 1048.3 822.8 1,158.0 During second and third quarter FY2021, the higher inflows remained persistent and provided liquidity support in interbank market to manage the liquidity demand emanated from both government and private sector credit demand. As a result, liquidity requirements eased up further and net injections reached to Rs 822.8 billion and Rs 1,158.0 billion respectively during Q2 and Q3 compared to Rs 912.8 billion and Rs 892.4 billion, respectively in corresponding quarter last year. During first nine months of CFY, interbank market remained relatively more volatile, but on multiple instances the SBP either completely refrained from intervening in the market to let the market settle on its own or made interventions of lower volumes than was demanded by the market, which also led to heightened volatility in the overnight rates. Table-5.9: Market Treasury Bills Auctions Rs million July-June July-March FY2020 Offered Accepted W.A.Rate* Offered Accepted W.A Rate* FY2020 FY2021 FY2020 FY2021 FY2020 FY2021 3-Months 14,913,709 8,811,853 10.7 12,790,718 11,269,020 8,122,054 6,985,123 12.5 6.9 6-Months 4,345,673 1,705,828 10.7 2,420,952 4,341,280 1,133,167 2,608,950 12.6 7.1 12-Months 14,210,931 4,649,744 10.8 11,467,044 1,795,065 3,966,446 528,226 12.4 7.2 Total 33,470,313 15,167,425 26,678,714 17,405,365 13,221,667 10,122,299 Source: State Bank of Pakistan *Average of maximum and minimum rates Under T-bills, government has received higher offered amount in T-Bills during JulyMarch, FY2021. With no change in interest rates during first nine months of FY2021, the market is concentrating its offers in the 3-month T-bills. Market offered Rs 17,405 billion of T-bills compared Rs 26,678.7 billion during same period last year. However, given the government’s inclination towards raising debt through long term papers, the government largely adhered to its auction plan. Consequently, T-bills accepted amount remained lower compared to last year during the period under review. The accepted amount stood at Rs 10,122 billion, which remained 58 percent of offered amount during the period under review. Within accepted amount, market has preferred to invest particularly in 03-months T-Bills and contribute around 69 percent followed by 25.8 and 5.2 percent under 6 and 12 Months, respectively. 112
147. Money and Credit Fig-5 .8: Contribution of T-Bills 80 61.43 69.01 FY2020 FY2021 Percent 60 40 30.00 25.77 20 8.57 5.22 0 3-Months 6-Months 12-Months Table-5.10: Pakistan Investment Bonds Auctions PIBs 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Maturity 20 Years Maturity 02 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual** 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual** 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual** Total Rs million July-June July-March W.A Rate Offered Accepted Offered 2,389,228 1,643,278 1,216,358 22,925 FY2020 1,102,152 612,849 332,797 16,800 10.8 10.8 11.0 10.1 FY2020 1,872,240 1,467,540 1,145,149 - 22,659 6,113 11.2 15,259 W.A Rate Accepted FY2021 337,420 450,548 243,752 54,549 50,061 FY2020 900,059 494,899 275,183 - FY2021 FY2020 FY2021 176,740 12.8 8.3 136,716 12.4 9.0 83,405 12.1 9.5 37,000 9.9 1,000 40,061 - 10.5 120,025 86,282 99.6 Cut off price 287,756 193,776 99.1 cut off price 107,600 90,500 98.0 cut off price 130,050 98,542 95.3 cut off price 84,100 60,552 45bps 1,193,302 624,763 99.6 cut off price 48,500 34,500 49bps 577,020 236,261 100.3 cut off price 1,445,471 6,872,519 723,417 72.5 bps 2,889,180 1,233,051 384,124 577,292 107,802 5,733,328 3,936,207 2,248,433 1,911,848 14.3 100.1 cut of price Note: Accepted amount include non-competitive bids as well as short sell accommodation. * The benchmark for coupon rate is defined in clause 'B' of DMMD Circular No. 9 dated May 07, 2018. ** Margins quoted ober benchmark rate in fresh auctions of floating rate PIB (PFL) Source: State Bank of Pakistan 113
148. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 In May 2018 , Pakistan’s first floating rate PIBS (PFL) government bonds were introduced under Pakistan Investment Bonds Rules.  The 10-years PFL instrument was launched primarily to provide an avenue to the market to invest in long-term bonds without taking exposure of the duration risk.  3 and 5 year PFL have been introduced in June, 2020 to provide the investors with suitable substitutes to T-bills and to lengthen the average maturity of domestic debt.  Government started issuance of 3, 5 and 10 Year PFL with quarterly coupon payment frequency from October, 2020; and  Government also introduced 2-Year PFL in November, 2020 with quarterly coupon payment frequency and fortnightly interest rate re-setting. During FY2021, the government leveraged on the floating rate PIBs (PFL) that not only offer a longer maturity period but also provide a flexible return in line with the interest rate cycle. Keeping in view the relatively low level of interest rates, the government preferred to issue floating rate PIBs, more than double that of fixed rate PIBs and also introduced new PFLs, with quarterly coupons. Currently, there are seven floaters available in the market, with maturities ranging from 2 years to 10 years. Fig-5.9: Contribution of PIBs FY2021 12.4 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) SemiAnnual 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) SemiAnnual 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) SemiAnnual 0.0 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 5.2 0.0 4.5 02 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 4.7 10.1 0.0 2.1 20 Years Maturity 1.9 15 Years Maturity 4.4 10 Years 5 Years 7.2 9.2 12.2 22.0 25.7 FY2020 32.7 40.0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3 Years Percent Government has set target for floating rate PIBs, more than double of fixed rate PIBs for FY2021. For fixed rate PIBs, market offers remained significantly lower to Rs 1,136 billion during July-March, FY2021 compared to Rs 4,500 billion in same period last year. The government also remained reluctant to accept higher cut-offs, therefore, government accepted amount against fixed rate PIBs stood at Rs 473.9 billion (42 percent of offered amount) compared to Rs 1,671 billion in last year. Within accepted amount, market has preferred to invest in 3 years as it contributed 37 percent of the fixed rate PIBs accepted amount followed by 29 percent in 5 years, 17.6 percent in 10 years, 8.5 percent in 20 years and 7.8 percent in 15 years. With a tough situation in mobilizing financing for longer tenor at fixed rates, the PFLs plays instrumental role for the government to maintain its maturity profile. Government 114
149. Money and Credit has accepted Rs 1 ,438 billion under PFLs which remained 51 percent of offered amount of Rs 2,799 billion for PFLs. Around 75 percent of the consolidated PIBs accepted amount was concentrated in the floating rate PIBs of various tenors during July-March, FY2021. Impact of policy rate reduction after COVID-19 outbreak has translated on Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR), which was 12.7 percent on gross disbursement in March, 2020 has decreased to 7.7 percent in March, 2021. Similarly, Weighted Average Deposit Rate (WADR) offered on fresh deposits also decreased from 6.1 percent in March, 2020 to 3.2 percent in March, 2021. Resultantly, banking spread which is the difference between the lending and deposit rates and the cost of channeling funds through intermediaries decreased from 6.6 percent in March, 2020 to 4.5 percent in March, 2021. Fig-5.10:Lending & Deposit Rates 15 13 WALR 11 9 7 Spread 5 3 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 May-20 Dec-20 WADR 1 Mar-20 Table-5.11: Lending & Deposit Rates(W.A) LR DR Spread March-20 12.7 6.1 6.6 April-20 11.2 6.7 4.5 May-20 10.2 5.7 4.6 June-20 9.6 4.7 5.0 July-20 8.2 4.2 4.1 August-20 7.5 3.1 4.4 September-20 7.8 3.3 4.6 October-20 8.0 3.0 5.0 November-20 8.1 2.9 5.2 December-20 8.1 3.3 4.8 January-21 7.8 3.1 4.8 February-21 7.7 3.1 4.6 March-21 7.7 3.2 4.5 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Financial Sector Despite pandemic-induced vulnerabilities, the banking sector performed reasonably well during CY2020. The asset base of the banking sector expanded by 14.2 percent in CY20 on YoY basis, higher than 11.7 percent expansion in CY19. Robust rise in assets was primarily driven by surge in investments (mainly in Government securities) which increased by 33.5 percent. Advances growth, however, remained weak owing to economic slowdown triggered by COVID-19. Deposits of the banking sector increased by 16.1 percent to Rs 18.5 trillion during CY20 as compared to 11.9 percent growth in CY19. Acceleration in deposits was primarily on account of halt in business activities and restrained consumer spending due to mobility restrictions caused by the pandemic. The after-tax profit of the banking sector increased by 42.9 percent to reach Rs 244 billion in CY20 against Rs 171 billion in CY19. As a result of higher earnings, Return on Assets (ROA-after tax) and Return on Equity (ROE-after tax) improved to 1.0 percent (0.8 percent for CY19) and 13.8 percent (11.3 percent for CY19), respectively. The solvency of the banking sector continued to strengthen, indicating elevated capacity of the banks to sustain stress from unexpected shocks. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 115
150. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 the banking sector was at 18 .6 percent by end Dec-20—was well above the local and international minimum benchmarks of 11.5 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively. Table-5.12: Highlights of the Banking Sector Industry CY15 CY16 CY17 Key Variables (Rs. billion) Total Assets 14,143 15,831 18,342 Investments (net) 6,881 7,509 8,729 Advances (net) 4,816 5,499 6,512 Deposits 10,389 11,798 13,012 Equity 1,323 1,353 1,381 Profit Before Tax (ytd) 329 314 267 Profit After Tax (ytd) 199 190 158 Non-Performing Loans 605 605 593 Non-Performing Loans (net) 91 90 76 Key FSIs (Percent) NPLs to Loans (Gross) 11.4 10.1 8.4 Net NPLs to Net Loans 1.9 1.6 1.2 Net NPLs to Capital 7.7 7.3 5.8 Provision to NPL 84.9 85.0 87.2 ROA (Before Tax) 2.5 2.1 1.6 Capital Adequacy Ratio (all banks) 17.3 16.2 15.8 Advances to Deposit Ratio 46.4 46.6 50.1 Note: Statistics of profits are on year-to-date (ytd) basis. Source: State Bank of Pakistan CY18 CY19 CY20 19,682 7,914 7,955 14,254 1,406 243 149 680 110 21,991 8,939 8,249 15,953 1,658 304 171 761 141 25,124 11,935 8,292 18,519 1,862 411 244 829 97 8 1.4 7.8 83.8 1.3 16.2 55.8 8.6 1.7 8.9 81.4 1.5 17 51.7 9.2 1.2 5.3 88.3 1.8 18.6 44.8 Financial Development A well-developed financial sector plays an important role in the overall economic development. The financial sector liberalization in Pakistan is being pursued since late 1980s. The financial sector reforms were primarily aimed to promote economic development of the country in general and the financial intermediation in particular. Table -5.13: Financial Depth Years M2/GDP 2010-11 36.6 2011-12 38.1 2012-13 39.6 2013-14 39.6 2014-15 41.0 2015-16 44.1 2016-17 45.7 2017-18 46.2 2018-19 46.7 2019-20 50.3 30th April 2019-20 46.9 2020-21 47.3 Source: EA Wing Calculation, Finance Division Financial development (i.e. financial depth) can be measured by different macroeconomic variables such as domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, money supply measures and stock market indicators. In table 5.13, financial depth is measured by M2/GDP ratio, which is widely used as an indicator for financial sector deepening, where higher values represent a more developed financial sector. This ratio has witnessed substantial rise and increased from 36.6 percent in FY2011 to 50.3 percent in FY2020, indicating more developed and efficient financial sector due to SBP various initiatives for financial sector development. The increasing trend is continued in current fiscal year 116
151. Money and Credit and the ratio has increased to 47 .3 percent as on 30th April FY2021 as compared 46.9 percent during same period last year. Box-II: Financial Sector Reforms during July-March FY2021 To create conducive and thriving environment for the banking industry, SBP continued to play its role within its regulatory and supervisory ambit during FY2021. The key policy reforms are highlighted below. 1.  Strengthening of Regulatory and Supervisory Environment SBP, in line with the international best practices, introduced a comprehensive set of reforms to enhance supervision and resilience of the banking system while balancing the need to dampen the effects of COVID-19 (Box-I:). Some of the other measures that were taken by SBP to facilitate banks, depositors and borrowers of all segments to withstand the economic shocks of COVID-19 include: ➢ • The requirements of the Basel III capital framework were relaxed, whereby the Capital Conservation Buffer was reduced by 1 percent from 2.50% to 1.50%; Similarly, the limit of retail portfolio was also enhanced from Rs 125 million to Rs 180 million to support the growth of credit to the retail sector and small & medium enterprises • The margin requirement for exposure against shares was reduced from 30 percent to 20 percent and margin calls from 30 percent to 10 percent. • The borrowers who were ‘performing’ as of December 31, 2020 were allowed deferral of principle payment for 1 year. • The banks/DFIs were allowed to recognize impairment loss, if any, resulting from the valuation of listed equity securities in phased manner equally on quarterly basis during CY2020. • The Debt Burden Ratio limit for borrowers was increased temporarily from 50 percent to 60 percent. • Clean and secured limits under Prudential Regulations for Consumer Finance were revised to facilitate consumer spending. • The Banks/DFIs were allowed, subject to certain conditions, to release and use the general provision maintained against consumer finance portfolio as per SBP regulation against the secured and unsecured consumer finance portfolio until December 31, 2020, enabling banks to withstand negative shocks of COVID-19 on their balance sheets. • To minimize the risk of COVID-19 transmission, biometric verification and other relevant requirements of Branchless Banking and Merchant on boarding Framework were relaxed in March 2020. These relaxations were extended until June 2021. Regulatory Reforms Strengthening of the Regulatory Framework 1. Compliance with SBP related points of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Action Plan  Pakistan achieved compliance with regard to all 9 action items related to the banking and financial sector in the 27 points FATF Action Plan in October 2020, by addressing all gaps identified by FATF and demonstrating its effectiveness. 2. Revamping of AML/CFT Regulatory Regime to Align with FATF Recommendations  To further align Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Regulations with the recommendations of FATF and to bridge the gaps identified in Pakistan’s Mutual Evaluation Report, SBP has made some important amendments in its regulatory framework, which will provide further clarity on implementation of AML/ CFT requirements. 117
152. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 3 . Enhanced Disclosure Requirements for Banks in Financial Statement  SBP revised the format of interim financial statements (quarterly and half-yearly) of banks, with the best international practices of disclosures, which will present banks’ business performance and value in a clear and concise manner. 4. Expansion of Cloud Servicing Guidelines  To allow utilization of the innovative and cost effective services being provided by Cloud Service Providers (CSPs), the scope of outsourcing to cloud service providers for Banks/DFIs/Microfinance Banks has been enhanced in September 2020. 5. Allowing Banks, DFIs and MFBs to Raise Foreign Currency (FCY) Subordinated Additional Tier 1 Capital from Sponsors  SBP allowed banks, DFIs and MFBs to have majority foreign shareholding (Greater than 50%) to raise Additional Tier 1 capital in the form of FCY subordinated debt/loan from their existing foreign sponsors. 6. Establishment of Pakistan Corporate Restructuring Company Limited (PCRCL)  Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) licensed Pakistan’s first Corporate Restructuring Company (CRC) under the Corporate Restructuring Companies Act, 2016. Accordingly, SBP issued guidelines to the banks/DFIs for transfer and assignment of their NonPerforming Assets (NPA) to the CRCs. 7. Revised Security requirements under R-4 to facilitate the Government of Pakistan (GoP)  To facilitate the Government in acquiring financing facilities from commercial banks, SBP revised instructions contained in Regulation R-4 of Prudential Regulations for Corporate/ Commercial Banking, allowing financing against a letter of Comfort issued by the Government, with the condition that the Government issues the required guarantee within a period of 90 days. 8. Enhancement of Banks Investments Limits in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)  In order to promote the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector, SBP has enhanced the investment limit of banks and DFIs to 5% of equity of the institution or 15% of paid up capital of Investee Company, whichever is lower. 9. Development of Digital Bank Regulatory Framework Draft for Public Consultation  ➢ SBP has developed a draft Digital Bank Regulatory Framework, which has been placed on the SBP’s website for public consultation. Through this framework, SBP’s goal is to provide an appropriate framework for the operation of Digital Banks in Pakistan. Foreign Exchange Regime 1. Connecting Overseas Pakistanis with the Banking System of Pakistan: SBP allowed Non-Resident Pakistanis (NRPs) and Pakistan Origin Card (POC) holders to open Roshan Digital Accounts (Foreign Currency Value Account (FCVA) and NRP Rupee Value Account (NRVA)). In addition, resident Pakistanis having assets abroad, duly declared with FBR, have also been allowed to open Roshan Digital Account (FCVA only). The NRPs can now open and operate these accounts digitally, spend money in Pakistan for meeting their family needs, invest in Government of Pakistan (GOP) securities (including Naya Pakistan Certificates -NPCs), shares/units quoted on stock exchange, unit of mutual funds (Open Ended Schemes), residential/commercial real estate and deposit products of the banks. The disinvestment proceeds, profits thereon and balances in these accounts are fully repatriable. 2. FX liberalization/ Regulatory Permissions to bring operational efficiency: SBP, over time, has eased the restrictions on foreign exchange related transactions, making these transactions effective and efficient while also improving the Ease of Doing Business. A brief of these measures is given hereafter: 118
153. Money and Credit a ) Policy of Equity Investment Abroad has been revised to simplify the process for residents to boost country’s exports and to attract FDI. Under the revised Equity Investment Abroad Policy, transactions pertaining to: (i) establishing subsidiary / branch office by exporters, (ii) establishing holding company abroad by resident start-ups to channelize investment to Pakistan; and (iii) investment by individuals to a certain limit, would be approved by the banks without seeking any approval from SBP. b) Framework for acquisition of services from a whitelist of digital service providers on the concept of “Payment vs Receipt” has been developed, with an annual limit of USD 200,000/- per entity that is acquiring the services. c) Issuance of business-to-consumer (B2C) e-Commerce regulatory framework to facilitate exporters to export goods up to the value of USD 5,000 without the requirement of E-Form through WeBOC. d) Development of mechanism of valuation and remittance of disinvestment proceeds exceeding market/breakup value of shares while delegating this function to Authorized Dealers. e) The exporters were allowed to retain a certain portion of their export proceeds in their special foreign currency accounts. The funds retained were to be used for specific purposes, include advertisement, promotion and marketing abroad, subscription fee for participation in foreign exhibitions and fairs, foreign consultants fee, travel expenses abroad, among others. 3. Digitalization of FX Regulatory Approval System (RAS) SBP launched an online platform i.e. Regulatory Approval System (RAS) to facilitate online submission of foreign exchange (FX) related cases to SBP. The SBP-RAS became operational on March 24, 2020 whereby manual case submission by banks was discontinued in respect of Foreign Exchange Operations Department of SBP-BSC. Later on, after successful parallel run, paper based case submission to Exchange Policy Department by banks was also discontinued with effect from August 28, 2020. It is envisaged that all FX related cases would be submitted digitally to the banks by their customer from July 2021 onwards. 4. Review and Updation of Foreign Exchange Manual: In order to align the foreign exchange regulations with the changing business dynamics and best international practices, SBP initiated the project of review of entire Foreign Exchange Manual. ➢ Supervisory Reforms 1. Improvements in AML/CFT Sanctions Regime:  During 2020-21, AML/CFT penalty scale was aligned to make it proportionate and dissuasive. Moreover, penalty scale was further refined in the light of amendments made in the Anti-Money Laundering Act (AMLA) 2010 in September 2020. 2. Strengthen SBP’s supervisory role and enhance effectiveness of enforcement actions  During FY2021, SBP has developed and implemented a new penalty scale for exchange companies, rationalized by enhancing the focus on administrative actions under Section 3AA(5) of the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act 1947 so as to make enforcement actions dissuasive especially for serious violations. 3. Risk Based Supervision (RBS) Framework  SBP is at final stages of implementation of forward- looking “Risk Based Supervisory (RBS) Framework” to improve the supervisory regime and align it with good international practices, understand the risk profiles(external & internal) of regulated entities, facilitate supervisors in early identification of problems, efficient deployment of supervisory resources and initiating prompt corrective actions. Currently, pilot testing of the framework is being conducted. 4. AML/CFT Inspection Framework and Manual  Since June 2018, Pakistan has been under Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Action Plan. Therefore, SBP developed an internal plan, inter alia, to update existing ML/TF and 119
154. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Proliferation Financing (PF) risk assessment methodology on the premise of Risk Based Supervision. 5. Risk Based Cyber security Inspection Framework Realizing the significance of cyber security risk, SBP has developed Risk Based Cyber security Inspection Framework to improve cyber resilience of the regulated entities.  6. Framework for Supervision of Credit Bureaus The SBP, under the Credit Bureaus Act, 2015, is empowered to grant license and supervise the credit bureaus. Therefore, SBP has developed a risk-based framework for assessment of key risks, corresponding control functions and governance framework in Credit Bureaus.  7. Digitization of supervisory process SBP has launched parallel run of system based inspection workflow system that digitizes endto-end process of conducting on-site inspections of regulated entities as well as initiation of subsequent enforcement actions.  2. Broadening of Financial Net: Following are the key developments in the financial inclusion during FY2021 : ➢ National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) SBP is pursuing financial inclusion as one of its strategic objectives to promote inclusive economic growth in the country. In this connection, SBP is implementing National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) and pursuing headline targets to be achieved by 2023. Under NFIS, a total of 96 actions/sub-actions are being implemented by more than 30 partners envisaged in this multi focal strategy to be completed by 2023. During H1 of FY2021, 15 actions/sub-actions have been completed, thus increasing the number of completed actions/subaction to 35. In terms of progress under headline target of active account, as of June 2020, overall number of unique active accounts stood at 45.9 million of which 11.7 million were held by women. Key Initiatives taken under NFIS are listed below: a. Gender Mainstreaming Policy: SBP has developed a Policy i.e. “Banking on Equality: Policy to Reduce the Gender Gap in Financial Inclusion”. It aims to introduce a gender lens within the financial sector, the policy is currently under consultation process with domestic/ international stakeholders. b. Automation of Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS): The project was initiated to enable CDNS to (i) reduce the cost of funds by at least 25%; and (ii) develop HR capability and digitalization capacity. As of February 2021, 165 branches have been computerized. c. Asaan Mobile Account (AMA) Scheme: SBP in collaboration with PTA and NADRA is implementing the Asaan Mobile Account (AMA) Scheme to develop an interoperable USSD (Unstructured Supplementary Service Data) platform by third party service provider (TPSP) for accessing and usage of digital financial services from anywhere, at any time. After meeting the licensing formalities by TPSP, the scheme is expected to be launched shortly. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Islamic Banking Assets of Islamic banking Industry (IBI) has posted growth of 30.0 percent, which is the highest growth in asset base since December 2012 and stood at Rs 4,269 billion in CY20 as compared to growth of 23.6 percent, Rs 3,284 billion in CY19. On the other hand, deposits of IBI has grown by 27.8 percent, the highest growth since December 2015 and reached Rs 3,389 billion against growth of 20.4 percent to Rs 2,652 billion in CY19. 120
155. Money and Credit Market share of Islamic Banking assets and deposits in the overall banking industry stood at 17 .0 and 18.3 percent, respectively during CY20 as compared to 14.9 and 16.6 percent, respectively in CY19. Table- 5.14: Islamic Banking Industry CY16 Total Assets (Rs billion) 1,853.0 Total Deposits (Rs billion) 1,573.0 Share in Banks' Assets (Percent) 11.7 Share in Banks' Deposits 13.3 (Percent) Source: State Bank of Pakistan CY17 2,272.0 1,885.0 12.4 14.5 CY18 2,658.0 2,203.0 13.5 15.5 CY19 3,284 2,652 14.9 16.6 CY20 4,269 3,389 17 18.3 Currently, 22 Islamic Banking Institutions (IBIs) (5 full-fledged Islamic banks, 17 conventional banks having Islamic Banking Branches) are providing Shariah compliant products and services through their network of 3,456 branches spread across 124 districts of the country. Further, the number of Islamic Banking windows (dedicated counters at conventional branches) operated by conventional banks having standalone Islamic Banking Branches stood at 1,638 as of December 31, 2020. In addition, NRSP Microfinance Bank and MCB-Islamic Bank are also offering Shariah compliant microfinance services. Breakup of the data between IBs and IBBs revealed that assets of IBs saw an annual rise of 29.7 percent (Rs. 572 billion), while IBBs experienced a sharp rise of 30.4 percent (Rs. 413 billion). Table -5.14 (a): Financing Products by Islamic banks Mode of Financing CY16 CY17 Murabaha 15.8 13.2 Ijara 6.8 6.4 Musharaka 15.6 22.0 Mudaraba 0.0 0.0 Diminishing Muskaraka 34.7 30.7 Salam 4.4 2.8 Istisna 8.4 8.2 Qarz/Qarz-e-Hasna 0.0 0.1 Others 14.3 16.7 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: State Bank of Pakistan CY18 13.6 6.2 19.9 0.0 33.3 2.4 9.1 0.0 15.5 100.0 Percent Share CY19 CY20 12.9 13.7 5.7 4.8 19.8 22.7 0.0 0.0 34.1 33.6 2.6 1.9 9.5 8.3 0.0 0.0 15.4 15.0 100.0 100.0 Investments (net) made by IBI registered considerable increase of 17.9 percent (Rs. 191 billion) in CY20 and were recorded at Rs. 1,261.2 billion compared to rise of 0.3 percent in corresponding period of 2019. This increase is mainly attributed to investments made by IBI in GoP Sukuk during the period under review. Profit before tax of IBI was recorded at Rs. 88.4 billion by end December 2020. While, earnings ratios like ‘Return on Assets (ROA)’ and ‘Return on Equity (ROE)’ (before tax) 121
156. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 stood at 2 .4 percent and 36.4 percent, respectively by end December, 2020 as compared to 2.2 and 34.4 percent, respectively in CY19. In terms of mode wise financing breakup in CY20, Diminishing Musharaka has highest share in overall financing of IBI followed by Musharaka and Murabaha. Box-III: SBP unveils ambitious Third Five-year Strategic Plan for Islamic Banking Industry State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has unveiled in April-2021 its third five-year Strategic Plan for the Islamic Banking Industry. The strategic plan has set headline targets for Islamic banking industry to be achieved by 2025. These include: (i) (ii) (iii) 30 percent share in both assets and deposits of overall banking industry, 35 percent share in branch network of overall banking industry and 10 percent and 8 percent share of SMEs and Agriculture financing respectively, in private sector financing of Islamic Banking Industry. In order to steer the growth of Islamic banking on sound footings, this third Strategic Plan for Islamic banking industry (2021-25) aims to set a strategic direction for the industry to strengthen the existing progressive momentum and lead the industry to the next level of growth. The plan has been developed in close coordination and consultation with all key relevant stakeholders. The strategic plan envisages achieving the aforementioned specified targets by focusing on six strategic pillars namely: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) strengthening legal landscape, enhancing conduciveness of regulatory framework, reinforcing comprehensive Shariah governance framework, improving liquidity management framework, expanding outreach & market development and bolstering human capital & raising awareness. The Islamic banking industry is expected to fully capitalize on the potential of Islamic finance to attain the shared vision of a vibrant and sustainable Islamic banking sector in Pakistan. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Microfinance The FY2021 remained challenging for the microfinance industry as economic issues, amidst COVID-19 pandemic, adversely impacted the repayment capacity of MF borrowers who belong to low income segments. To counter the adverse impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and to address issues efficiently, SBP remained proactive since the emergence of the disease in the country. Table-5.15: Microfinance Industry Indicators Indicators December-19 Number of Branches 4,036 Total No. of Borrowers 7,249,943 Gross Loan Portfolio (Rs. in millions) 305,753 Avg. Loan Balance (Rs.) 42,173 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 122 December-20 3,828 7,005,885 324,155 46,269 YoY Growth -5.15% -3.37% 6.02% 9.71%
157. Money and Credit As of December 2020 , the microfinance industry players operated through 3,828 branches spread in 138 districts across the country. Industry’s retail network decreased marginally owing to a number of business and cost considerations. Performance of the microfinance industry depicts increasing trend in gross loan portfolio over last year apart from the impact of prevailing pandemic. Table -5.16: Microfinance Banking Indicators (Rs. in millions) Indicators March-20 March-21 No. of Branches 1,212 1,195 No. of Borrowers 3,713,374 4,234,502 Gross Loan Portfolio 219,345 256,173 Average Loan (in Rs.) 59,069 60,497 Deposits 239,641 371,656 No. of Depositors 45,800,637 63,781,970 Equity 47,398 56,535.61 Assets 373,649 493,425 Borrowings 26,343 24,084 NPLs 6.33% 3.72% Source: State Bank of Pakistan Growth -1.4% 14.0% 16.8% 2.4% 55.1% 39.3% 19.3% 32.1% -8.6% -41.2% As of March 2021, eleven MFBs and MCB – Islamic Bank9 were involved in extending complete range of micro-banking services to the low-income populace of the country. During the period under review, the combined asset base of MFBs, witnessed a YoY growth of 32.1 percent and deposit base of MFBs registered an impressive growth of 55.1 percent. Concurrent growth was also witnessed in number of depositors which grew by 39.3 percent to over 63.7 million. As of March 2021, MFBs were operating through a network of over 1,195 retail outlets. Similarly, aggregate loan portfolio of MFBs registered a growth of 16.8 percent and the number of borrowers registered increase of 14 percent from 3.71 million to 4.2 million. Concurrently, the average loan balance increased by 2.4 percent to Rs 60,497. MFBs reported reduction in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) from 6.33 percent to around 3.7 percent. This decline in NPLs is consequent to the regulatory relief extended to the borrowers as MFBs were been advised not to classify their financing facilities until March 31, 2021.10 Branchless Banking (BB) Performance During the period under review, all key indicators of Branchless Banking (BB) exhibited an encouraging growth following the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns. SBP’s measures regarding limiting the spread of COVID-19 virus by promoting the use of Digital Payment Services have further pushed the growth trajectory. The number of agents, mobile wallets and deposits witnessed a boost in numbers. Notable growth was witnessed in the number and value of transactions during the period. 9 Since October/November 2017, MCB Islamic Bank is extending microfinance banking services by establishing counters at its existing branches in line with IBD Circular Mo. 5 of 2007. 10 Para 2-iii of AC&MFD Circular Letter No. 1 of 2020 123
158. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table-5 .17: Performance of BB Indicators BB Indicators March-20 Number of Agents 434,192 Number of Accounts 48,345,517 Deposits (Rs In millions) 31,935 No. of transactions ('000') 1,420,501 Value of transactions (Rs in millions) 4,784,845 Source: State Bank of Pakistan March-21 509,720 66,542,098 56,442 2,006,299 7,355,595 Growth 17% 38% 77% 41% 54% Conclusion At the start of FY2020, SBP has continued with tight monetary policy stance as stabilization tool. Coordinated monetary and fiscal policies have reflected in the form of sustained improvement in the country’s fiscal and external accounts, a revival in the real economy and positive business and consumer sentiment. The unprecedented shock of COVID-19 required an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response. Aiming to this, SBP has cut the policy rate by cumulative 625 bps during short tenor of three months, supported by a number of targeted and temporary interventions in the credit market through refinance schemes that provided much needed cash flow relief to households and businesses. During FY2021, SBP has continued with accommodative monetary policy stance with 7.0 percent policy rate and the target of monetary policy was shifted towards supporting growth and employment during the pandemic. As a result, accommodative monetary policy environment, targeted fiscal intervention to counter the COVID-19 impact, led to a pick-up in the economic activity during first nine months of FY2021. Correspondingly, credit to the private sector posted an encouraging recovery amid the revival in economic activity and the availability of SBP’s concessionary refinancing schemes. Fixed investment loans increased significantly by Rs 127.4 billion during JulyMarch, FY2021 against the retirement of Rs 5.2 billion last year, which augurs well for sustainable growth in coming years. 124
159. Chapter 6 Capital Markets and Corporate Sector Capital market is a place where trading of numerous financial instruments like bonds , stocks, etc. takes place. Corporations participate in capital markets to raise funds to finance their investment in real assets. Capital markets play an active role in the development of an economy by connecting the monetary sector with the real one. Globalization of financial markets has facilitated corporations by increasing their accessibility to foreign capital. The relatively free mobility of capital has raised opportunities for capital deficient economies. This integration of international financial markets has increased the risk for vulnerable countries since downturn in one country will reverberate throughout the integrating economies and in the case of large open economies like USA and China, major part of the world can be affected like a contagion. Financial crises in Latin America in 1994–95, East Asia in 1997–98 and Global Financial Meltdown in 2008 are the examples of that risk that financial integration has brought. The COVID-19 pandemic plummeted global stock markets in March 2020. Analysts feared that like previous crises, stock markets will take years to recover. Fortunately, this time around, both the decline and the rebound took place very quickly. The rebound can mainly be attributed to the fiscal stimulus packages rolled out by the governments around the globe. What was unique is that governments sponsored spending even at the cost of a rising fiscal deficits, which limited the impact of a prolonged COVID-19 crisis. Pakistan Stock exchange also successfully powered through initial COVID-19 induced economic downturn and earned the title of being the ‘best Asian stock market and fourth best-performing market across the world in 2020.’ The KSE-100 index continued to climb throughout the year. The increase in the KSE-100 Index was driven by government’s large stimulus package, central bank’s stable policy rate, an uptick in large scale manufacturing, improvement in external accounts and reforms introduced by the Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and PSX in the wake of COVID-19. The salient feature of FY2021 was five Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) that took place in its first nine months. Such a large number of new issues and mobilization had not taken place for some years. The number of debt listings was also relatively higher this year. The chapter will be covering performance of the equity market, debt market, commodity futures market, non-banking financial companies, corporate sector, Islamic finance and insurance sector in the FY2021. The chapter will also cover the reforms and regulations
160. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 introduced by the SECP , the apex regulator of the capital markets, to facilitate the capital markets. I – Equity Market An equity market, also known as a stock market, is a market in which shares of listed companies are issued and traded. It mobilizes resources by linking investors and savers. Global Equity Markets: FY2021 began in the midst of the first ‘Great Lockdown’ period. Global equity markets, which witnessed a plunge in March 2020, rebounded when governments around the globe injected big stimulus money into their economies. As shown in the figure-6.1, major world indices faced short run fluctuations but registered a positive growth in the current fiscal year. The uptick is especially pronounced in November and December when the announcement of a vaccine assuaged the fears of investors. KSE-100 (LHS) S&P 500 (RHS) SSE Composite (RHS) Fig-6.1: Major World Indices 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 1-Jul-20 8-Jul-20 15-Jul-20 22-Jul-20 29-Jul-20 5-Aug-20 12-Aug-20 19-Aug-20 26-Aug-20 2-Sep-20 9-Sep-20 16-Sep-20 23-Sep-20 30-Sep-20 7-Oct-20 14-Oct-20 21-Oct-20 28-Oct-20 4-Nov-20 11-Nov-20 18-Nov-20 25-Nov-20 2-Dec-20 9-Dec-20 16-Dec-20 23-Dec-20 30-Dec-20 6-Jan-21 13-Jan-21 20-Jan-21 27-Jan-21 3-Feb-21 10-Feb-21 17-Feb-21 24-Feb-21 3-Mar-21 10-Mar-21 17-Mar-21 24-Mar-21 54000 52000 50000 48000 46000 44000 42000 40000 38000 36000 34000 Sensex 30 (LHS) CAC 40 (RHS) 3,000 Source: Yahoo Finance Major Asian stock market indices have also recorded a positive growth in the first nine months of the current fiscal year (Fig 6.2). Pakistan’s KSE-100 index and India’s Sensex 30 have seen the highest growth among the selected indices. Fig-6.2: Asian Stock Market indices July-March FY2021 Return (%) 60% 50% 40% 30% 47.77% 42.13% 34.42% 25.81% 20% 17.98% 7.81% 10% 0% Source: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) 126 29.55% 22.04% 10.09%
161. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector Pakistan ’s Equity Market (Developments during FY2021): Pakistan’s stock market’s performance has been remarkable this KSE-100 index year. During July 2020 to April 2021 period, the benchmark KSE-100 has shot up index improved from 34,889.41 points to 44262.35 points. During by 63% since this time, the Index closed at its highest point of 46,933.63 on March 25, 2020 February 3, 2021, before the third wave of COVID-19 dragged it down. As of April 30, 2021, number of listed companies stood at 532, with total market capitalization of Rs 7,718 billion. Fig-6.3: KSE-100 and Market Capitalization (July - April 2021) 48000 46000 44000 42000 40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 KSE-100 (LHS) 6500 21-Apr-21 7-Apr-21 24-Mar-21 10-Mar-21 24-Feb-21 10-Feb-21 27-Jan-21 13-Jan-21 30-Dec-20 16-Dec-20 2-Dec-20 18-Nov-20 4-Nov-20 21-Oct-20 7-Oct-20 23-Sep-20 9-Sep-20 26-Aug-20 Soruce: PSX 12-Aug-20 29-Jul-20 15-Jul-20 1-Jul-20 6000 The turnover in shares reached its peak in January 2021, indicating that investors were actively investing in the market. The market activity slowed down after February 2021 as the third wave of COVID-19 intensified. Table 6.1: Month-wise performance of KSE-100 Index Months 2019 - 2020 KSE 100 Market Turnover index Capitalization in shares (Rs billion) (billions) Jul-19 31,938.48 6,384.30 1.76 Aug-19 29,672.12 6,082.04 2.03 Sep-19 32,078.85 6,406.55 2.18 Oct-19 34,203.68 6,690.04 4.37 Nov-19 39,287.65 7,511.97 6.40 Dec-19 40,735.08 7,811.81 6.45 Jan-20 41,630.93 7,851.16 5.68 Feb-20 37,983.62 7,094.67 2.91 Mar-20 29,231.63 5,620.94 4.71 Apr-20 34,111.64 6,376.72 4.60 May-20 33,931.23 6,484.96 2.33 Jun-20 34,421.92 6,529.70 2.23 Source: Pakistan Stock Exchange Months KSE 100 index Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 39,258.44 39,868.55 40,571.48 39,888.00 40,807.09 43,755.38 46,385.54 45,865.02 44,587.85 45,048.57 2020 – 2021 Market Capitalization (Rs billion) 7,294.27 7,418.38 7,643.09 7,399.62 7,519.25 8,035.36 8,398.45 8,207.14 7,892.19 7,885.74 Turnover in shares (billions) 3.68 3.94 4.73 5.41 3.97 5.78 8.40 4.79 4.43 4.73 The distinguishing feature of this year is the significant number of IPOs that took place. It implies that companies are confident about business prospects. Their detail is given in box item-I. 127
162. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Box item-I : Initial Public Offerings in FY2021 Despite the COVID-19 outbreak, Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed five IPOs during July-March FY2021 period. In year 2020 alone, four IPOs took place, which is the highest number in the last five years. Investor’s appetite was so strong that most of these issues were oversubscribed. In 2020, first IPO was The Organic Meat Company (TOMCL), the leading exporter of halal meat from Pakistan. The Company was listed on PSX on August 3rd 2020. The Company offered 40 million shares at a strike price of Rs 20/share to raise Rs 800 million. The second IPO of the year was TPL Trakker (TPLT), which provides technology solutions and IoT services. It raised Rs 802 million by offering 66.82 million shares at a price of Rs 12/share. The largest IPO of the year 2020 was of the Rebar manufacturer Agha Steel Industries (AGHA). The company offered 120 million shares at a strike price of Rs 32/share, raising Rs 3.8 billion. The fourth IPO of the year was Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited, which conducted the Initial Public Offering of its preference shares on December 17th & 18th, 2020. Engro planned to raise Rs 375 million by offering Rs 37.5 million preference shares at the face value of Rs 10/- per share. The successful IPO of Panther Tyres Limited (PTL) resulted in the fifth listing on the Stock Exchange for FY2021. The Issue of Panther Tyres Ltd. consisted of 40 million ordinary shares with a strike price of Rs 65.8 per share to raise Rs 2.6 billion. It is a significant and positive development for the capital market of Pakistan whereby listings have taken place successfully in the challenging times of the Coronavirus pandemic. The average daily shares volume has been higher this year compared to previous year, suggesting that more buyers and sellers are there in the market which makes it is easier and faster to execute a trade. On 27th May 2021, PSX witnessed an all-time high daily trading volume with 2.21 billion shares traded in a single session. Table 6.2 Profile of Pakistan Stock Exchange 2017 Total No. of Listed Companies Total Listed Capital - Rs in billion Total Market Capitalization – Rs in billion New Companies Listed during the year Average Daily Shares Volume - (Shares in Mn) (YTD) Total Volume Traded - (Rs in Mn) (YTD) Source: Pakistan Stock Exchange 2018 2019 2020 2021 (Till 8th April 2021) 559 1,276.80 8,570.92 546 1,322.74 7,692.78 534 1,386.59 7,811.81 531 1,421.09 8,035.36 532 1,434.74 7,865.93 7 249.19 3 194.03 1 163.98 3 323.51 1 553.76 73783.90 62323.05 57645.40 108425.65 - Market Capitalization of each sector at Pakistan Stock Exchange as of 31st March, 2021: During July-March FY2021, the market capitalization of the PSX increased by 20.9 percent. Below is the detail of growth in each sector: 128
163. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector Table 6 .3: Market capitalization of each sector: Market Cap Sectors On 30/06/2020 (Rs million) Automobile Assembler 241,244.95 Automobile Parts & Accessories 48,008.15 Cable & Electrical Goods 25,279.94 Cement 408,176.15 Chemical 307,193.43 Close - End Mutual Fund 2,919.58 Commercial Banks 1,070,354.21 Engineering 72,695.88 Fertilizer 472,487.69 Food & Personal Care Products 595,057.92 Glass & Ceramics 37,380.82 Insurance 151,405.78 Inv. Banks / Inv. Cos. / Securities Cos. 104,765.65 Jute 123.30 Leasing Companies 4,531.81 Leather & Tanneries 25,914.73 Miscellaneous 67,834.21 Modarabas 11,701.45 Oil & Gas Exploration Companies 969,427.07 Oil & Gas Marketing Companies 188,213.91 Paper & Board 59,783.06 Pharmaceuticals 272,870.67 Power Generation & Distribution 245,707.11 Refinery 53,835.38 Sugar & Allied Industries 65,812.41 Synthetic & Rayon 46,310.88 Technology & Communication 99,462.12 Textile Composite 222,361.07 Textile Spinning 44,051.96 Textile Weaving 2,527.59 Tobacco 512,591.23 Transport 66,826.02 Vanaspati & Allied Industries 7,193.02 Woollen 1,441.40 Real Estate Investment Trust 24,216.09 Total 6,529,706.80 Source: Pakistan Stock Exchange Market Cap On 31/03/2021 (Rs million) 329,647.11 69,245.79 30,810.24 668,273.56 408,065.32 3,414.79 1,247,233.14 154,576.63 487,722.25 658,100.96 65,367.36 168,327.06 117,844.29 123.30 4,891.75 41,888.72 71,939.64 14,185.41 986,752.39 228,926.97 84,203.40 294,303.64 310,115.49 146,527.25 75,790.82 66,108.70 233,874.54 298,073.56 70,847.42 3,725.39 458,140.17 68,621.90 1,738.81 456.20 22,325,94 7,892,190.10 %Change 36.6 44.2 21.8 63.7 32.8 16.9 16.5 112.6 3.2 10.6 74.9 11.2 12.5 0 7.9 61.6 6.1 21.2 1.8 21.6 40.8 7.8 26.2 172.1 15.1 42.7 135.1 34.1 60.8 47.4 -10.6 2.7 -75.8 -68.4 -7.8 20.9 Demand for stocks of Technology & Communication (T&C) sector spurred in the current pandemic. Work from home model accelerated the digital revolution (Fig 4). In addition, the listing of TPL Trakker also increased the market capitalization T&C. Prime minister’s construction package has clearly boosted demand for Engineering and Cement sectors. As shown in figure 5, the share price of Lucky Cement has jumped by 70 percent since 1st July 2020. The Engineering sector witnessed an IPO this year of Agha Steel Industries that may have contributed to its growth. 129
164. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Fig-6 .4: Top Five Sectors (percentage increase) Refinery 172.1 Technology & Communication 135.1 Engineering 112.6 Glass & Ceramics 74.9 Cement 63.7 0 50 100 150 200 Total Market Capitalization of Top 15 Companies Listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange as on March 31, 2021: Below is the list of selected blue chip companies based on market capitalization. Table 6.4: Market Capitalization of Selected Blue Chips Scrip Company Shares (million) Price (Rs) Amount (Rs in billion) OGDC Oil & Gas Dev. 4300.93 101.61 437.02 PAKT Pak Tobacco 255.49 1535.00 392.18 NESTLE Nestle Pakistan 45.35 5849.90 265.29 LUCK Lucky Cement 323.38 817.59 264.39 PPL Pak Petroleum 2720.97 87.33 237.62 MARI Mari Petroleum 133.40 1531.30 204.28 MCB MCB Bank Ltd 1185.06 172.15 204.01 COLG Colgate Palm 63.30 2700.00 170.91 HBL Habib Bank 1466.85 116.18 170.42 Meezan Bank 1414.72 113.18 160.12 ENGRO Engro Corp 576.16 277.32 159.78 UBL United Bank 1224.18 118.94 145.60 FFC Fauji Fert. 1272.24 104.49 132.94 SCBPL St.Chart.Bank 3871.59 29.55 114.41 KEL K-Electric Ltd. 27615.19 3.98 109.91 MEBL Source: Pakistan Stock Exchange Out of five major companies in the PSX, only Lucky Cement price has registered a positive growth. Fall in share price of Pak Tobacco partly explains the negative growth in the Tobacco industry. Share prices of OGDCL and PPL have dropped as Oil & Gas Exploration companies posted a modest 1.8 percent growth. 130
165. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector Fig-6 .5: Stock price trend of top five companies in PSX indexed to 100 200 180 OGDCL PAKT LUCK PPL NESTLE 160 140 120 100 80 60 1-Jul-20 1-Aug-20 1-Sep-20 1-Oct-20 1-Nov-20 1-Dec-20 1-Jan-21 1-Feb-21 1-Mar-21 1-Apr-21 Source: ksestocks.com II- Debt markets: Debt market is the market where debt instruments are traded. A well-developed corporate bond market is essential for the growth of the economy, as it provides an additional avenue to government and the corporate sector to raise funds for meeting their financial needs. During July-March FY2021 period, 17 debt securities were reported, break-up of which is given below: Table 6.5: Debt securities Sr. No. Type of Security i. ii. iii. iv. Listed Sukuk* Privately Placed Term Finance Certificates** Privately Placed Sukuk *** Privately Placed Commercial Papers**** Total * ** *** **** No. of Issues 1 2 4 10 17 Amount (Rs in billion) 25.0 16.5 18.5 36.9 96.9 by (i) K-Electric Limited (Rs 25 billion); by (i) Bank Alfalah Ltd. (Rs 15 billion); and (ii) Sadaqt Ltd. (Rs 1.5 billion); by (i) The Hub Power Company Limited (Rs 6 billion); (ii) Kot Addu Power Co. Ltd. (KAPCO)(Rs 5 billion); (iii) The Hub Power Company Limited (Rs 4.5 billion)and (iv) Mughal Iron & Steel Industries Limited (Rs 3 billion) by (i) K-Electric Limited (Rs 3.2 billion), (ii) K-Electric Limited (Rs 3.2 billion), (iii) K-Electric Limited (Rs 3.2 billion), (iv) KElectric Limited (Rs 4 billion), (v) K-Electric Limited (Rs 4.5 billion); (vi) TPL-Trakker Ltd (Rs 1.32 billion);(vii) K-Electric Limited (Rs 4.5 billion), (viii) K-Electric Limited (Rs 4.5 billion), (ix) K-Electric Limited (Rs 4 billion) and (x) K-Electric Limited (Rs 4.5 billion) Corporate Debt Securities Outstanding: As of March 31, 2021, 93 corporate debt securities remain outstanding, amounting to Rs 782.875 billion, comprising following categories:  Table 6.6: Corporate debt securities (outstanding)  Sr. No. Name of security i. ii. iii. Term Finance Certificates (TFCs) Sukuk Commercial Papers (CPs) Total Source: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan  No. of issues  49 41 3 93 Amount outstanding (Rs in billion) 151.898 623.356 7.621 782.875 131
166. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 National Saving Schemes : Central Directorate for National Savings CDNS is one of the mainstays to raise the domestic debt for the government through sale of different retail debt securities commonly referred to as National savings Schemes (NSS). The share of NSS is roughly around 20 percent in the domestic debt and around 10 percent of the public debt of the country. The product basket of the National Savings Schemes (NSS) ranges from three months Short-Term Savings Certificates (STSC) to ten years long term Defense Savings Certificates. Table 6.7: Product basket of the National Savings Scheme Rate of profit on National Savings Schemes w.e.f. 25-03-2021 S.No Rate of Return Name of Scheme Maturity Period Tax Status (per annum) 1 Defence Savings Certificates 9.68% 10 Years Taxable 2 Special Savings Certificates/Accounts 8.87% (Average) 3 Years Taxable 3 Regular Income Certificates 9.36% 5 Years Taxable 4 Savings Account 5.50% Running Account Taxable 5 Pensioners' Benefit Account 11.52% 10 Years Tax exempt 6 Bahbood Savings Certificates 11.52% 10 Years Tax exempt 7 Shuhada Family Welfare Account 11.52% 10 Years Tax exempt 8 National Prize Bonds (Bearer) 10.00% Perpetual Taxable 9 Premium Prize Bonds (Registered) * 8.84% Perpetual Taxable 10 Short Term Savings Certificates (STSC) STSC 3 Months 6.92% 3 Months Taxable STSC 6 Months 7.30% 6 Months Taxable STSC 12 Months 7.40% 12 Months Taxable *Effective from 10.03.2021 Source: Central Directorate of National Savings Due to discontinuation of institutional investment and discontinuation of highest domination prize bonds, the net proceeds have been counted at Rs -86 billion as of March 31 2021. Scheme wise net investment is as under: Table 6.8: National Savings Schemes (net investment) S # Name of Scheme 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 16,620.00 (0.69) (51.43) (39,344.59) (0.75) (20,950.65) 57,432.10 18,716.71 4,684.42 10,743.61 0.05 (0.19) (51,180.06) (0.55) 8,726.28 45,395.28 21,504.37 3,412.99 57,171.04 (0.03) (0.04) 31,842.49 142,088.06 119,573.11 43,367.37 (166.22) Defence Savings Certificates National Deposit Scheme Khaas Deposit Scheme Special Savings Certificates (Regd) Special Savings Certificates (Bearer) Regular Income Certificates Bahbood Savings Certificates Pensioners' Benefit Account Savings Accounts 132 2019-20 92,783.09 (0.05) 13,945.72 (0.01) 83,232.25 83,379.96 33,875.95 4,536.97 (Rs in million) (Jul-20 to Mar-21) (7,264.97) (0.00) (0.24) 4,963.60 (0.50) 16,246.34 409.41 11,204.20 (768.33)
167. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector Table 6 .8: National Savings Schemes (net investment) S # Name of Scheme 10 Special Savings Accounts 11 Mahana Amdani Accounts 12 Prize Bonds 13 National Savings Bonds 14 Short Term Savings Certificates 15 Premium Prize Bonds (Registered) 16 Postal Life Insurance 17 Shuhda Welfare Accounts Grand Total 2016-17 65,246.58 (55.20) 97,791.58 2,077.37 2,921.72 2,529.79 207,616.95 2017-18 2018-19 59,939.19 (132,393.53) (46.70) (73.84) 101,575.66 40,432.08 560.55 761.00 2,323.20 2,819.96 875.45 1,248.42 42.14 203,829.13 306,712.00 (Rs in million) (Jul-20 to 2019-20 Mar-21) 200,770.58 (17,155.69) (60.42) (55.03) (171,109.88) (85,942.92) (137.00) 19,254.58 (19,021.61) 11,322.72 11,736.54 627.96 (648.98) 27.02 13.69 372,449.41 (86,284.50) Source: Central Directorate of National Savings III- Commodity futures market: Pakistan Mercantile Exchange Limited (PMEX), is the first technology driven, web-based, demutualized multi-commodity futures exchange in Pakistan. The exchange offers diverse range of international commodities and financial futures, including gold, silver, crude oil, currency pairs, as well as local agricultural products including cotton, wheat, rice and spices. During the period July 01, 2020 to March 31, 2021, 2.31 million lots of various commodities futures contracts including gold, crude oil, US equity indices and FX pairs, worth Rs 2.014 trillion were traded on PMEX. IV. Non-Banking Finance Companies Mutual Funds: As of December 31, 2020, assets under management of mutual funds stood at Rs 985.18 billion. Money Market Funds dominated the industry with the largest share i.e. 41.84 percent of the mutual fund industry, followed by Equity Funds comprising 24.5 percent and Income funds having industry share of 24.08 percent. Investment Advisory: At present, twenty-one Non-Bank Finance Companies (NBFCs) have licenses to conduct investment advisory business, in addition to asset management services, while out of twenty-one, four NBFCs have an exclusive license for conducting investment advisory services. As of December 31, 2020, the total assets of discretionary/non-discretionary portfolios held by all of the Investment Advisors amounted to Rs 313.88 billion. Major highlights of the Mutual Fund Industry are stated below: Table 6.9: Mutual fund industry Description Asset management / Investment advisory Companies Mutual Funds / Plans Discretionary / non-discretionary portfolio Total size of the industry Source: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan Total number of Entities 23 308 - Total Assets (Rs in billion) 43.685 985.176 313.881 1,342.742 133
168. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Box item-II : The NBFC Reforms and Developmental Activities  To facilitate the growth of the mutual fund industry and to safeguard the investor’s interest, the SECP has taken the following initiatives:  Digital platform for investment in mutual funds launched with the name “Emlaak Financials”;  Detailed mechanism prescribed for digital account opening by Asset Management Companies (AMCs), enabling them to conduct online Customer Verification process for opening of online accounts. ▪ Amendments introduced to NBFC Regulations, 2008, to provide following relief to Non-Bank Microfinance Company (NBMFCs) enabling them to have access to credit lines from their wholesale lender and strengthen their equity base: ▪ Pakistan Microfinance Investment Company, the wholesale lender of NBMFCs, can now extend unsecured finance to NBMFCs up to 10 percent of its own equity. This will support NBMFCs, who can now avail unsecured subordinated loan to strengthen their equity base; ▪ Allowing wholesale lender an extra allowance of 10 percent in exposure to a single NBMFC, significantly increasing its capacity to accommodate NBMFCs  Approval granted for incorporation of an NBFC that will exclusively focus on financing to SMEs  Licensed an NBFC that will exclusively engage in issuance of guarantees to enhance the quality of debts instruments issued for financing of infrastructure projects in Pakistan  Following significant amendments have been made in Voluntary Pension System (VPS) regulatory framework, in order to revamp the regulatory structure and introduce relaxations for ‘ease of doing business’ and growth of the sector: ▪ Pension Funds Manager allowed to offer index funds to ensure availability of passive investment strategy products to VPS investors ▪ Restriction on pledging of individual pension account has been removed for pledging, lien or encumbrance against a loan or advance, given by the employer to the employee. ▪ Requirement for prior approval of the SECP for advertisements to invest in a pension fund has been removed and the SECP shall specify minimum requirements for advertisements. ▪ Pension fund managers are allowed investment in securities on behalf of pension fund through a single Universal Identification Number. ▪ Per broker commission limit has been enhanced from 10 percent to 25 percent, in line with Mutual Funds. ▪ Participant may change his retirement age between sixty and seventy years, by giving notice in writing to the Pension Fund Manager. Source: Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan Private Equity and Venture Capital Funds Management Services: As on December 31, 2021, the number of NBFCs licensed by the SECP to undertake the business of Private Equity and Venture Capital Fund Management Services stands at six. These NBFCs, have so far successfully launched five Private Equity and Venture Capital Funds and the combined size of these funds stands at Rs 7,889 million. Voluntary Pension Schemes: The assets under management of the voluntary pension industry currently stand at Rs 35.6 billion as of December 31, 2020. Highlights of the pension fund industry are as under: 134
169. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector Table 6 .10: Voluntary pension schemes Description Total assets of pension industry (Rs) Status as of December 31, 2020 35.6 billion 19 10 Total number of pension funds Total number of pension fund managers Source: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan Lending NBFCs: Lending NBFCs include leasing companies, investment finance companies, housing finance companies, discount houses and non-bank microfinance companies. Highlight of each category is stated below: Table 6.11: List of lending NBFCs S.No Lending NBFC No. of companies 1 Leasing Companies 2 Investment Banks 3 Non-Bank Microfinance Companies 4 Modarabas Source: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan 6 12 26 38 Growth in sector size (%) 0.65 2.57 - Asset size as of 31st Dec, 2020 (Rs billion) 5.98 66.35 129.07 51.43 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Currently, there is one REIT scheme i.e. Dolmen City REIT (DCR), which has successfully completed over five years of operations. As of December 31, 2020, the fund size of DCR was Rs 54.4 billion. The number of companies licensed to undertake REIT Management Services currently stand at eight. The SECP is also engaged in further revamping the REIT Regulations, 2015 after exhaustive consultations with relevant stakeholders for adding growth and vibrancy in the REITs sector. Key reforms have been identified for conventional REITs and for introducing a complete model enabling launch of REITs for public private partnershipbased infrastructure projects in Pakistan. V- Corporate Sector Company incorporation trend: Facilitation extended during the pandemic coupled with availability of uninterrupted online services has helped in achieving an impressive growth of 39 percent in number of registered companies during July- March FY2021 visà-vis the corresponding period of last financial year. Out of 19,246 new companies incorporated during this period, around 99 percent companies were incorporated using online process. Online CTC Issuance: In order to optimize business processes and to improve experience with the end users, a facility for issuance of digital certified company profile and mortgage register is launched. Any person may now obtain digital certified company profile and mortgage register of any company, registered with SECP by simply signing up to its eService portal for submission of online application. 135
170. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Online Digital portal for Banks : In pursuit of its agenda to promote ease of doing business and digitalization, the SECP, in coordination with SBP, had launched an exclusive digital portal, enabling banks to open corporate accounts without seeking physically certified copies of statutory documents. Digital Incorporation Certificate: SECP has started issuance of digital incorporation certificate. New electronic certificate is equivalent to the physical certificate for all legal purposes. It includes various security features, including SECP monogram, electronic seal of the registrar, QR code and a hyperlink for instant verification from the SECP’s record. After this development, the company incorporation process has become fully electronic. This physical contact-free service has been especially fast-tracked in the light of the current pandemic and with a view to further reduce the time to incorporate a company. Launch of the Secured Transactions Registry for Unincorporated Entities: This initiative is in line with international best practices and methodology of World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index which aims to improve access to finance for SMEs and agriculture sector through use of their movable assets as collateral besides providing a mechanism for protection of secured creditors. Establishment of Business Centre in Islamabad: Business Centre in Islamabad is established for swift incorporation of companies and respond any requests for information and queries promptly. The Business Centre is equipped with a professional team and latest technology and will help improve overall customer experience. Launch of Combined Certificate of Registration: SECP has launched digital combined certificate of registration with SECP and other provincial departments. The single certificate shall signify company incorporation with the SECP and as well simultaneous registration with provincial departments including Punjab Employees Social Security Institution (PESSI), Sindh Employees Social Security Institution (SESSI), Labour & Human Resource Departments and Excise & Taxation Departments of Punjab and Sindh. It will be digital certificate delivered electronically to applicant, hence, making registration process fully electronic and hassle free. The single certificate is featured with QR code and a hyperlink for instant verification of registration status of company with SECP and other provincial departments. Box item-III: Regulatory Relief to Corporate Sector to dilute impact of COVID-19 Pandemic: Considering the gravity of COVID-19 pandemic on the public health and the lockdown situation in the country, following regulatory relief is provided to the corporate sector: i. Usual planning for convening Annual General Meeting for financial year ended December 31, 2020 was modified as follows; a) Members participation through virtual mode to avoid large gathering; b) Detail of video link facilities was to be shared by the companies with the shareholders; c) Companies were to ensure protective measures i.e. provision of hand sanitizer, masks and distant seating; 136
171. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector d ) Postal balloting for special businesses; ii. To avoid large gathering at one place for the General Meetings during the COVID–19 outbreak, the companies were directed to modify their usual planning for General Meetings and consider provision of video link facilities, webinar or other electronic means so that the shareholders can provide comments/suggestions for the proposed agenda items of the General Meeting through the same. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan VI- Islamic Finance Sector Shariah Governance Regulations, 2018: During July-March FY2021, the SECP issued certificate of Shariah compliance to seven companies in terms of the Shariah Governance Regulations, 2018, for the development of the Islamic financial and capital market. SECP has issued certificates of Shariah compliance for sukuk issuances worth Rs 280 billion, including the “Power Energy Sukuk-II” by Government of Pakistan worth Rs 200 billion and “Pakistan International Airlines Corporations Limited-Sukuk” worth Rs 20 billion. VII- Insurance Sector The insurance sector in Pakistan comprises of 10 life insurers, 40 non-life and one stateowned national reinsurer. Developments in insurance sector from July 2020 to March, 2021 are as follows: Corporate Insurance Agents Regulations, 2020: This regulation is notified to provide comprehensive regulatory framework, with wider scope for business undertaken through corporate insurance agents (including banks) and technology-based distribution channels. SEC (Reinsurance Brokers) Regulations, 2020: The SEC (Reinsurance Brokers) Regulations, 2021 have been issued with the aim to notify the regulatory framework for regulation of reinsurance broking business. Reinsurance broking refers to the arrangement of reinsurance between the direct insurance company and the reinsurer. One of the key features of regulations is to prohibit dual role of the registered insurance brokers to act as direct insurance broker and reinsurance broker on the same risk. Capital Market Reforms and Developmental Activities 1. Professional Clearing Member (PCM): The Professional Clearing Member Regulations, 2020 were approved and notified on September 23, 2020. These regulations stipulate licensing, conduct operational requirements for a company functioning as a PCM. Such a company shall provide clearing/settlement and custodial services to securities brokers and their customers, thereby increasing business efficiency. Subsequently, a company Eclear Services Limited has been granted license to act as PCM on May 03, 2021 which is expected to be operational in due course. 2. Digitization and simplification of account opening process: Investors have been facilitated to seamlessly open their accounts with a broker from anywhere in the country, eliminating the need to submit any documents physically or visit a broker. 137
172. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 In order to ensure maximum investor protection , an online customer verification process has been introduced for opening of online accounts. 3. Facilitation in Opening of Investor Account by Non-Resident Pakistanis or Foreigners: During COVID-19 pandemic, NRPs and foreigners faced practical difficulties in getting their documents attested for opening of trading accounts. The SECP, accordingly introduced amendments in Centralized Know Your Customer (KYC) Organization (CKO) Regulations, with an option of ‘Notarization’ to allow them to get attestation by either notary public or Consul General of Pakistan. This step has facilitated NRPs or foreign investors to comply with regulatory framework and enabled them to invest in Pakistani capital market. 4. Opening of Non-Resident Pakistani Rupee Value Account (NRV Account): Pursuant to the launch of NRV Account under Roshan Digital Account initiative, NRPs can invest in listed shares and open accounts with capital market intermediaries on the basis of KYC information submitted to the banks. Requisite regulatory amendments have been made and operational system has been implemented for sharing of KYC information and opening of trading accounts. 5. Ease of doing business: The CKO performs independent verification of information of all new customers. Considering difficulties faced by market participants and investors, necessary amendments in respective regulatory framework have been made to address the practical difficulties and make the process more seamless, which include allowing company provided mobile number for opening of account and facilitating Asset Management Companies, group of companies and International Broker Dealers, in using single UIN in respect of multiple accounts. 6. Operationalization of Collateral Management Company and Electronic Warehouse Receipts Concerted efforts were made for operationalization of the electronic warehouse (EWR) receipt. The registered Collateral Management Company (CMC) became operational and first EWRs were issued in March 2021. Further, approval was also granted for EWR based contracts to be traded at PMEX. In addition, EWRs issued by the CMC can also be used as eligible collateral for obtaining financing from financial institutions. 7. Development of primary capital market: Following measures have been taken for development of primary capital market: i. Introduction of book building mechanism for discovery of profit rate in case of fixed rate instrument: In order to facilitate the issuer to issue debt securities to investors at a competitive rate based on market demand, book building mechanism for the discovery of profit rates in case of fixed rate instrument has been introduced through amendments in the Public offering Regulations, 2017. - 138 Recently, Government of Pakistan has raised Rs 200 billion through issuance of Pakistan Energy Sukuk-II by utilizing said book building system. The issue was oversubscribed by 70 percent and GOP was able to borrow funds at a rate less than KIBOR with increased participation from different classes of investors.
173. Capital Markets and Corporate Sector ii . To increase outreach, bringing efficiency and creating ease, PSX has digitalized the e-IPO process for both equity and debt issues. iii. Enhancing the options for structuring of debt securities: - For ease of doing business and to streamline the issuance of secured and unsecured conventional debt securities, the scope of activities performed by investment agent has been enhanced to cover issuance of secured and unsecured conventional debt securities. Relevant amendments have been made to the Debts Securities Trustees Regulations, 2017, Public Offering Regulations, 2017 and Public Offering (Regulated Securities Activities Licensing) Regulations, 2017. Through these amendments, the issuers are now able to raise funds through issuance of debt securities either through trust structure or by way of issuance agreement. iv. Broadening the universe of the Advisor to the Issue: In order to facilitate and encourage listing of securities on Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) Board of PSX, the SECP has now allowed banks, accounting and auditing firms to act as Advisor for GEM Board. v. Review Of Market Making Framework - In order to promote liquidity in the secondary debt market and encouraging financial institutions to register with PSX as market maker, the market making regulations of PSX have been revamped. In order to improve liquidity in the secondary debt market, Chapter 12A has been added in PSX Rule Book, which specifically deals with market making of debt securities, including Government Debt Securities and explicitly provides the roles and responsibilities of the market maker with respect to such debt securities. vi. Encourage companies to list other classes of shares: - In order to facilitate the issuer, the SECP has allowed listed companies, whose ordinary shares are already listed on the stock exchange, to list their other class of shares without mandatorily making a public offer of respective class of shares. Consequential amendments have also been made in the PSX Regulations. vii. Facilitating issuance of Government debt securities: - In order to facilitate the issuance of Government guaranteed debt securities and public offering of debt security by state owned enterprises having entity rating of BBB+ and above, the eligibility criteria for public offer has been relaxed and the requirement of profitable track record has been waived off. viii. Reduced Regulatory burden: Regulatory requirements such as credit rating, market making, information memorandum have been relaxed for certain type of debt securities. Objective eligibility criteria for public offering of debt securities has also been considered to enable companies having a track record of less than three years and profitable track record of less than two years, to raise funds ix. Promote innovative solutions through Sandbox: To test new business models and promote innovation, SECP has introduced a regulatory sand box. Under the first cohort, SECP granted approval to six business models including crowd funding platform1. In order to continue promoting fintech innovation in a closed and 1 Crowd funding is a new financial product that enables startups/small companies to raise funds at a lower cost 139
174. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 secure environment , the process of 2nd cohort under the Regulatory Sandbox Guidelines has been be initiated. Way forward After a volatile ride in FY2020, the stock and debt markets bounced back in FY2021 and the KSE-100 appears set on rising into FY2022. There have been significant listings in the capital market and overall IPOs received an encouraging response from investors. More IPOs are waiting in the queue. Though the third wave of COVID-19 dragged the KSE-100 index down in March and April of FY2021, reforms introduced by the SECP and government’s robust policies will not only help the capital market to withstand the pressure but also remain bullish. 140
175. Chapter 7 Inflation 7 .1 Introduction Price stability is prime concern of every government as high and variable inflation not only erodes purchasing power of consumers but also discourages investment. A controlled inflationary environment contributes to financial stability and economic growth. Inflation is caused by both demand and supply side of market forces. However, demand-side inflation can be controlled by prudent government expenditure policy and restricting government to borrow from the central bank. On supply-side not only cost of input matters but restriction on the free mobility of transportation can interrupt smooth supply chain of goods and services. A real time example has been seen during lock down to avoid adverse impact of COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic resulted in large shocks to both demand and supply hence inflation was observed across the world. Historically, it was observed that inflation had risen sharply during and aftermath of major wars and same was predicted in this pandemic. 11.1 Fig-7.1: The YoY Inflation CPI National 9.1 Mar-21 5.7 8.7 8.0 Dec-20 % 8.0 Feb-21 8.3 8.9 Oct-20 Nov-20 9.0 Sep-20 8.6 Jun-20 8.2 8.2 May-20 9.3 8.5 10.0 Apr-20 12.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Apr-21 Jan-21 Aug-20 Jul-20 0.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics In Pakistan, by the end of FY2020, the inflation rate stabilized and turned out to be single digit mainly due to government prudent demand management policies. In this regard, government borrowing from SBP was avoided as a policy decision. In the start of FY2021, major contribution to inflation in both urban and rural baskets derived from food group mainly due to extended monsoon season. The government realizing the significance of supply disruption started establishing Sahulat/Bachat Bazars in the country. The rise in the prices of global agrarian products and other commodities especially oil contributed to domestic inflation as well. As far as, oil prices are concerned,
176. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 the government does not pass on proportional increase of crude oil prices in international market to the general public in order to maintain price stability . During first ten months of FY2021, National CPI inflation for FY2021 remained lower than last year. Administrative measures including crackdown on speculative elements and resumption of seasonal supplies of perishables helped to retain the inflationary pressures. Moreover, tax relief measures in Budget 2020-21 in response to COVID-19 also provided relief in terms of stable prices of various goods. In April 2021, CPI rose to 11.1 percent mainly due to substantial increase in international commodity prices. The past trends also imply seasonal inflation in Ramzan. The government ensured smooth supply of essential domestic goods by allowing imports of essential commodities like wheat and sugar. A Ramazan package of Rs 7.8 billion was provided through Utility Store Corporation for providing essential items to general public at affordable prices. Box-I: Global Inflation and Pakistan For most commodity markets, 2020 was undeniably a turbulent year. The outbreak of the pandemic triggered a widespread global shutdown of economic activity that depressed demand and disrupted supply chains for commodities in virtually all sectors including energy, base metals and agricultural products. Bloomberg Commodity Index hit an all-time low in April and the price of crude oil nosedived into negative territory for the first time ever. However, 2021 has started projecting an upward trajectory of prices on the back of COVID vaccination and relative deterioration of US dollar. A global economic recovery is expected around the globe with expansionary monetary policy and fiscal stimulus being provided by several governments as being particularly supportive. Such factors with other demand and supply factors have also boosted inflationary expectations. Continuously increasing commodity prices have an upward inflationary pressure around the globe which is further expected to build up due to the fiscal stimulus packages and reduced interest rates in the wake of COVID-19. Inflation has remained subdued globally till January 2021 due to depressed demand. But partial lockdowns and resumption in business activities have again started pushing up the prices. Similarly, Pakistan and its regional countries witnessed moderate increase in inflation initially, but it started picking up the pace from January 2021. 142
177. Inflation Inflation Rate YoY (%) 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 Jul-20 Aug-20 Pakistan Sep-20 India Oct-20 Nov-20 Afghanistan Dec-20 Jan-21 Bangladesh Feb-21 Turkey Mar-21 Apr-21 Iran COVID-19 has affected the demand and supply of certain products and hence, their prices as well. Reliance on imported goods has exposed country to inflation which has accentuated due to depreciation and capital outflows. Pakistan faced highest inflation of 14.5 percent in January 2020, comparing developing and emerging economies both, yet this has reduced to 5.7 percent in January 2021 due to government efforts to contain inflation. Being a net importer of oil and having significant scope for inflation pass-through from the exchange rate channel, the rise of international prices of oil and food from January 2021 has started building inflationary spirals going forward. 7.2 Consumer Price Index: The headline inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was recorded at 8.6 percent during July-April FY2021 as against 11.2 percent during the same period last year. Due to the government measures for maintaining price stability, inflation in perishable food items was increased 0.1 percent against exorbitant increase of 34.7 percent during same period last year. Non-Perishable food items are the main contributory factor in jacking up the food inflation in the Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages group, as it is recorded at 16.0 percent against the increase of 12.4 percent during the same period last year. Among the nonperishable food items, the upward pressure came from the poultry group (chicken and eggs), followed by the staple group (wheat, wheat flour and edible oil). The increase in the poultry group may be attributed to viral disease which caused supply side risks. Wheat prices rose by more than 24 percent in April 2021 over April 2020 due to supply disruption. However, there was decrease of 9 percent over March 2021 mainly due to the government efforts for smooth supply of wheat. One of measures was timely release of wheat in the provinces by the procurement agencies and provision of the commodity via utility stores and fair price outlets which managed to ease price pressures. Regarding increase in the prices of edible oil, Palm oil and soybean prices have been on a steep rising trajectory in international market since June 2020, amid sharp contractions in global inventory levels due to weather-related concerns in the major producing areas. The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & other Fuel have recorded an increase of 5.7 percent during July-April FY2021 as against 7.1 percent during the same period last year. It has a weight of 23.6 percent thus any untoward movement directly affects the 143
178. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 vulnerable segments of the society . CPI movements by major groups are given below in Table 7.1. Table 7.1: Composition of CPI-National Inflation (July-April) Commodity CPI National Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages i) Non- perishable Food Items ii) Perishable Food Items Alcoholic Beverages& Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels Clothing &Foot wear Housing, Water, Electricity. Gas & other Fuel Furnishing & Household Equipment Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Miscellaneous Weights % Change On Average Basis 2019-20 2020-21 100.0 34.6 29.6 5.0 1.0 6.9 8.6 23.6 4.1 11.2 15.9 12.4 34.7 21.9 7.0 9.5 7.1 10.6 8.6 13.4 16.0 0.1 5.7 8.5 10.0 5.7 8.1 2.8 5.9 2.2 1.6 3.8 4.9 11.7 15.0 3.8 6.8 6.0 11.9 8.3 -1.3 0.5 4.2 1.2 11.7 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics From start of the current fiscal year, Government responded intensively and convened National Price Monitoring Committee (NPMC) meetings periodically to monitor the price situation as well as supply of essential items. In Q1 FY2021, although CPI was brought to single digit 8.85 percent from 10.08 percent in corresponding quarter last year, however, it was noted that inflation remained high on account of increase in prices of food items mainly non-perishable items. It was decided in NPMC meeting that Ministry of National Food Security & Research and M/o Industries & Production will consult the provincial governments and remain vigilant to control the wheat/flour and sugar prices while Provincial governments were asked to provide support to market committees in collaboration with district administration to play proactive role in removing the price disparity among the provinces and also ensure the smooth supply of essential items. In Q2 FY2021, again it was noticed that main driver in CPI remained food items mainly due to price differential in food items among provinces. The major reason could be high province-wise margin between wholesalers and retailers. Thus, in NPMC, it was decided that the provincial representatives will convey their Chief Secretaries to come up with workable proposals and measures to make the prices of essential items stable. Further, Provincial Authorities and ICT administration was asked to take strict action against the profiteers and minimize undue profit margin in the perishable items. Furthermore, M/o National Food Security & Research and M/o Industries & Production were directed to remain vigilant on wheat and sugar stock in the country and take proactive measures 144
179. Inflation for timely import of wheat & sugar as decided by ECC. In addition to that the frequency of NPMC meetings was increased to weekly basis for further stabilizing prices of essential items in particular. In Q3 FY2021, the government effort for maintaining smooth supply of food items both perishable and non-perishable, helped in containing the inflation to 7.80 percent compared to 12.38 percent in corresponding quarter last fiscal year. However, prices of Restaurant & Hotels, Clothing & Footwear and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & other Fuel remained relatively higher due to economic recovery. Quarter -wise CPI movements are given below in Table 7.2. Table 7.2: Quarter wise CPI National Commodity CPI inflation-Urban increased by 11.0 percent on Year-on-Year basis in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 8.7 percent in the previous month and 7.7 percent in April 2020. The Urban Food and Non-Food inflation recorded at 15.7 percent and 8.2 percent as compared to 10.4 percent and 6.2 percent respectively in the last year same month. During the period July-April FY2021, CPI-Urban recorded at 7.7 percent as against 10.7 percent during the same period last year. Q1 10.08 12.22 11.23 16.57 29.69 6.02 8.46 6.58 11.43 11.73 17.69 4.34 7.54 6.62 12.45 2019-20 Q2 Q3 12.11 12.38 18.04 18.82 11.09 60.09 19.08 6.17 9.46 8.17 10.85 11.61 15.01 3.98 7.00 6.06 11.65 15.17 38.74 18.31 8.23 10.22 7.10 10.07 12.08 16.37 3.92 6.33 6.39 11.55 Q1 8.85 15.10 2020-21 Q2 8.41 15.00 15.25 13.72 5.57 7.92 9.54 5.40 7.72 7.92 -3.14 0.28 3.75 1.01 12.50 17.21 5.28 5.96 9.35 9.35 2.93 7.77 7.84 -3.02 0.47 4.18 1.30 11.82 Q3 7.80 9.31 14.77 -18.78 5.79 8.34 10.53 7.57 8.32 8.83 -0.25 0.56 4.68 1.17 11.46 Fig-7.2: Year On Year Urban CPI 16 14 12 10 % CPI National Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco, Textiles Apparel and Leather Products i) Non- perishable ii) Perishable Alcoholic Beverages& Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels Clothing & Foot wear Housing, Water, Electricity Gas & other Fuel Furnishing & Household Equipment Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Miscellaneous Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (%) 8 6 4 2 Urban CPI FY 21 Urban CPI FY 20 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics In urban areas, increase in the prices of items in April 2021 compared to April 2020 were: Chicken (93.14 percent), Tomatoes (81.49 percent), Eggs (42.41 percent), Condiments and Spices (31.62 percent), Wheat (26.99 percent), Mustard oil (24.44 percent), Vegetable ghee (21.05 percent), Milk 145
180. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 (20.37 percent), Cooking oil (19.23 percent), Sugar (18.2 percent), Wheat flour (16.92 percent) , Fresh vegetables (11.45 percent), Electricity charges (29.06 percent), Cotton cloth (16.56 percent), Footwear (16.24 percent), Major tools & equipment (15.06 percent), Cleaning and laundering (13.37 percent), Clinic fee (12.81 percent), Hosiery (12.55 percent) and Woollen readymade garments (12.08 percent). On the other hand, in urban areas, the prices of the items which shown decline were: Onions (39.57 percent), Pulse moong (16.57 percent), Pulse masoor (10.20 percent), Pulse gram (7.13 percent), Besan (5.61 percent) and Gram whole (3.00 percent). CPI inflation-Rural increased by 11.3 percent on a year-on-year basis in April 2021 as compared to an increase of 9.5 percent in the previous month and 9.8 percent in April 2020. 18 Fig-7.3: Year On Year Rural CPI 16 14 12 % Food and Non-Food inflation recorded at 14.1 percent and 8.9 percent as compared to 12.9 percent and 7.4 percent respectively in the same month last year. During the period July-April FY2021, CPI-Rural recorded at 10.0 percent as against 12.0 percent during the same period last year. 10 8 6 4 Rural CPI FY 21 Rural CPI FY 20 2 The inflation differential in Rural 0 and Urban may be attributed to Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr relatively loose price checks in Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics rural areas. However, Food inflation in rural areas was lower compared to that in urban because agriculture products related to food are produce in rural areas. The high non-food inflation in rural areas can be attributed to the transportation cost. In rural areas, commodities that recorded increase in prices during April 2021 over April 2020 were: Chicken (85.15 percent), Tomatoes (60.03 percent), Eggs (46.14 percent), Wheat (24.48 percent), Mustard oil (23.71 percent), Cooking oil (23.29 percent), Vegetable ghee (21.38 percent), Wheat flour (19.33 percent), Sugar (16.51 percent), Condiments and Spices (13.72 percent), Milk (13.48 percent), Rice (13.02 percent), Electricity charges (29.06 percent), Hosiery (16.47 percent), Clinic fee (16.41 percent), Plastic products (14.24 percent), Cotton cloth (13.41 percent), Woolen cloth (13.27 percent), Household equipment (12.64 percent), Tailoring (12.06 percent) and Stationery (11.12 percent). The items recording declines in their prices were Onions (43.53 percent), Pulse moong (14.66 percent), Besan (4.7 percent), Pulse gram (3.15 percent), Pulse masoor (2.34 percent), Fruits (1.30 percent) and Gram whole (1.14 percent). 146
181. Inflation 7 .3 Core Inflation Core inflation is defined as Non Food and Non Energy (NFNE) inflation which is calculated by excluding the food group and energy items (Kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. Core inflation continued to follow moderated trajectory due to containment of domestic demand and muted pass-through of higher food prices into core goods and services prices. Core inflation for Urban and Rural recorded at 5.8 percent and 7.6 percent respectively during July-April FY2021 as compared to 7.8 percent and 8.7 percent during the same period last year. The YoY core inflation remained low as compared to the same months last year. The deceleration in core inflation was enabled by relative exchange rate stability and the presence of spare capacity which kept firms input costs from rising significantly. Table 7.3 shows the core inflation trend year-on-year basis. Table 7.3: Core Inflation Months Jul Aug 2019-20 Urban 8.2 8.5 Rural 7.8 8.8 2020-21 Urban 5.3 5.6 Rural 7.8 7.6 Sep 8.4 8.8 5.5 7.8 Oct Nov 7.7 7.5 8.6 8.4 5.6 5.6 7.6 7.4 Dec 7.5 8.1 5.6 7.7 Jan 7.9 9.0 5.4 7.8 Feb Mar 8.0 7.4 9.4 9.4 6.4 6.3 7.7 7.3 Apr Jul-Apr 6.4 7.8 8.5 8.7 7.0 5.8 7.7 7.6 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 7.4: Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Wholesale prices of 419 items included in WPI are being collected from 19 cities. The items have been divided into five groups. Fig-7.4: WPI movment Year on Year 19 17 15 % 13 During the current Fiscal year, WPI is 11 moving towards an upward trajectory WPI FY 21 9 since January 2021 while during the same WPI FY 20 7 months last year it followed a steep fall. 5 The Year on Year (YoY) WPI for April 3 2021 is recorded at 16.6 percent against 1 14.6 percent in the previous month and Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 4.9 percent in the same month last year. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statitics The index on period average basis during July-April FY2021 has been recorded at 7.4 percent as against 12.2 percent during the same period last year. Further categorization of the index into 5 constituent groups reveal the highest inflationary pressure in the metal products machinery & equipment recorded at 14.9 percent as against 14.0 percent during the same period July-April FY2020. The other transportable goods recorded a decline of 3.1 percent as against an increase of 5.5 147
182. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 percent the same period last year . The group-wise comparison is given in table 7.4 below. Table 7.4: Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (%) Commodity Weights General (WPI) Agriculture Forestry & and Fishery Ores & Minerals, Electricity Gas & Water Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco, Textiles Apparel and Leather Products i) Food Products and Beverages & Tobacco ii) Textiles & Apparel iii) Leather Products Other Transportable Goods Except Metal Products, Machinery and Equipment Metal Products Machinery & Equipment Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 100.0 25.8 12.0 31.1 July-April 2019-20 2020-21 12.2 7.4 11.4 11.9 30.1 2.4 20.1 10.3 0.7 22.4 8.7 10.6 12.9 7.3 5.0 12.8 15.7 7.7 5.9 5.5 14.0 -3.1 14.9 7.5: Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) The trend of this index is monitored regularly and immediate measures are taken to control fluctuation in prices. The SPI year-on-year basis in FY2021 remained volatile as presented in the graph. Fig-7.5: SPI Year on Year 24 20 16 % Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) is computed on weekly basis to assess the price movements of essential commodities at a shorter interval of time to review the price situation in the country. SPI comprises of 51 essential items and the prices are collected from 50 markets in 17 cities of the country. 12 8 SPI FY 21 SPI FY 20 4 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics The annualized increase in SPI during July-April FY2021 was recorded at 12.9 percent against 14.3 percent in the same period last year. Twenty nine (29) major food items including wheat, wheat flour, rice, tomatoes, onions, masoor pulse, moong pulse, mash pulse, chicken, sugar, red chilies etc. having a weight of 59 percent influenced SPI by (+) 11.5 percent. Table 7.5: Change in prices of major food items of SPI Description Units Wheat Flour Bag Rice Basmati Broken Rice IRRI-6/9 Bread plain (Small Size) Beef with Bone Mutton 148 20 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg Each 1 Kg 1 Kg Weights (Combined) 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.6 3.4 2.4 % Change Apr21/ Apr-20 14.2 11.5 11.7 13.5 11.1 12.6 (%) Contributions 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3
183. Inflation Table 7 .5: Change in prices of major food items of SPI Description Units Chicken Milk fresh (Un-boiled) Curd (Dahi) Loose Powdered Milk NIDO Eggs Mustard Oil Cooking Oil Tin Vegetable Ghee Tin Vegetable Ghee Pouch Bananas Pulse Masoor Pulse Moong Pulse Mash Pulse Gram Potatoes Onions Tomatoes Sugar Gur Salt Powdered Chilies Powder Garlic Tea Packet Total Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Weights (Combined) 1 Kg 1 Ltr 1 Kg 390gm 1 Doz 1 Kg 5 litres 2.5kg 1 kg 1 Doz 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 1 Kg 800gm 200 gm 1 Kg 190 gm % Change Apr21/ Apr-20 3.9 18.4 1.8 0.4 1.4 0.0 3.1 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 2.1 1.7 1.4 3.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 2.4 59.0 (%) Contributions 83.8 16.7 15.5 4.4 46.9 30.6 20.0 19.4 22.0 23.4 -8.7 -17.0 6.6 -6.6 -5.6 -41.0 43.1 19.0 4.7 0.0 139.6 -39.1 0.3 3.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.2 0.0 11.5 7.6: Global Prices Trend The emerging industrial markets greatly influence the price of oil, since they require more oil to support their economic growth and resulting rise in energy consumption which drive the prices upward in the market. Oil price rose to nearly $64/bbl in April 2021 and has shown an increase by 51 percent since the start of FY2021 while the year on year showing an exorbitant increase of 178 percent. Table 7.6: International Prices of Major Commodities Sugar Palm Oil Soyabean Crude oil Wheat Rice Tea DAP Urea Months ($/Mton) ($/Mton) oil ($/Brl) ($/Mton) ($/Mton) ($/Mton) ($/Mton) ($/Mton) ($/Mton) Apr-20 230.0 609.0 May-20 240.0 574.0 Jun-20 270.0 652.0 Jul-20 270.0 694.0 Aug-20 290.0 760.0 Sep-20 280.0 796.0 Oct-20 300.0 819.0 Nov-20 310.0 918.0 Dec-20 310.0 1016.0 Jan-21 340.0 990.0 Feb-21 360.0 1017.0 Mar-21 340.0 1031.0 Apr-21 360.0 1075.0 % Change Apr-21/Apr-20 56.5 76.5 Apr-21/Mar-21 5.9 4.3 Apr-21/Jul-20 33.3 54.9 Source: Commodities Price Pink Sheet, WB 680.0 684.0 752.0 821.0 867.0 906.0 915.0 974.0 1026.0 1101.0 1121.0 1170.0 1202.0 23.3 31.0 39.9 42.8 44.3 41.1 40.5 43.2 49.9 54.6 62.0 65.2 64.8 221.7 209.9 200.5 212.7 208.9 219.7 245.2 247.9 251.2 276.4 276.6 272.6 281.4 543.7 492.9 494.1 459.7 480.9 483.0 454.5 468.5 496.6 517.8 531.0 504.1 477.4 2350.0 2510.0 2840.0 3030.0 3150.0 3080.0 3000.0 2800.0 2650.0 2680.0 2580.0 2430.0 2640.0 282.0 263.0 273.0 305.0 341.9 358.4 357.1 359.6 388.5 421.3 528.9 534.1 543.4 235.0 201.9 202.0 214.4 249.5 250.5 245.0 245.0 245.0 265.0 335.0 352.9 328.1 76.8 2.7 46.4 178.1 -0.6 51.4 26.9 3.2 32.3 -12.2 -5.3 3.9 12.3 8.6 -12.9 92.7 1.7 78.2 39.6 -7.0 53.0 149
184. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The Palm oil and Soybean oil prices are recorded at $1075/MT and $1202/MT respectively in April 2021 showing an increase of 76.5 percent and 76.8 percent over April 2020. The Palm oil market lost ground from multi-month high in the light of new coronavirus-related restrictions in European countries. Malaysian palm oil futures traded around RM 4,000 per tonne, close to its highest level since March 15th amid tight edible oil supplies and despite concerns over falling demand in India due to a deepening coronavirus crisis. FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) marking the eleventh consecutive monthly rise and reached to its highest level since May 2014. The rise was led by strong increases in the prices of sugar followed by oils, meat, dairy and cereals. Fig-7.6: FAO Food Commodity Prices International palm oil and soyabean oil prices continued to rise in April, 2021 due to slower than expected production growth in major exporting countries. The April, 2021 rebound in international sugar price due to the slow harvest progress in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter. Among major cereals, wheat prices were generally steady in April, 2021 however over 17 percent above than last year April 2020. In case of maize prices the expectations for better global production prospects kept prices generally stable while the international rice prices decreased in April, 2021 with persistent logistical constraints continuing to hinder fresh deals. 7.7 Way Forward Globally, the inflation rate remained low during the pandemic but there is still upside risk going forward. With substantial money-supply expansion throughout major part of the world, low interest rates and fiscal stimulus are building up inflationary pressure. Moreover, La Nina may intensify agriculture risk to farmers around the globe, which may cause shortage of supply of various agriculture commodities. 150
185. Inflation In Pakistan , inflation rate remained low during the period July-April FY2021 as against the last year. Government is making efforts to bring down inflation by ensuring smooth supply of commodities, checking profiteering & hoarding and vigilant monitoring of prices both at Federal and Provincial levels. In order to maintain the sufficient supply of wheat and sugar in the market government intends to timely import the wheat and sugar to bridge the demand supply gap. The government is also taking measures to provide incentives to the farmers for increasing agriculture production. In this regard, government has already approved subsidy disbursement of Rs 19.2 billion for Kharif 2021 through provinces on sharing basis (75:25) for agriculture inputs. The government has also focused on medium and long term strategy for raising production of essential imported food items mainly edible oil and pulses. Thus, with these measures associated risks of price hike will be mitigated. 151
186.                              
187. Chapter 8 Trade and Payments Even prior to COVID-19 outbreak , globalization in trade, finance, investment and migration was facing a number of headwinds, stimulated by geopolitical tensions over trade between the United States (US) and China, “Brexit” vote for United Kingdom (UK) as well as rising polarization and social inequality. The pandemic has further exacerbated the prevailing trade relationships among nations. All the measures taken by the states to restrain the spread of virus like closure of borders, strict lockdowns and quarantines have distorted supply chains and weakened the demand of an interconnected economy. This has resulted in an overall decline in global output and trade during 2020. Fig-8.1: Trends in World GDP & Trade Volume World GDP (% change) Trade Volume (% change) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 -15 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2021 Amidst the economic crisis, fluctuations in the trade volume tend to be more volatile than in real output (Fig-8.1). As the above graph shows, during global financial crisis, global output witnessed a contraction of 0.1 percent while the world trade plummeted by 10.4 percent. Continuous trade and technological tensions among leading countries had already muted the growth in the world trade volume from 3.9 percent in 2018 to 0.9 percent in 2019. COVID-19 related restrictions have exacerbated the situation and resulted in a sharp contraction in the trade volume (-8.5 percent) during 2020 due to falling global demand. The pandemic had caused serious distortions in the supply chain and subdued foreign direct investment. Overseas migration and worker remittances were severely disrupted and tourism was particularly hard hit. In short it brought the economic activities to a standstill. The impact was significantly different across regions. Advanced economies suffered the steepest decline in exports (by 9.5 percent) and imports (by 9.1 percent), while Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)
188. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 witnessed somewhat lower contraction in exports (by 5.7 percent) as well as in imports (by 8.6 percent). However, monetary, financial and fiscal support measures were promptly executed globally. Massive relief packages by fiscal authorities as well as liquidity support and credit extensions by monetary authorities helped in mitigating the adverse impact of lockdowns especially on the poor masses. Special assistance and grants from international organizations and debt relief by G-20 also provided some cushion to subside the financial vulnerabilities. As countries began to emerge from lockdown in the second half of 2020, shifting from strict lockdown to partial or no lockdown strategy, economic activities started to resume. Concurrently, deployment of vaccines has raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic and economic activities. March-21 September-20 March-20 March-19 September-19 March-18 September-18 September-17 March-17 March-16 September-16 March-15 September-15 September-14 March-14 March-13 World Exports September-13 March-12 September-12 September-11 March-10 September-10 September-09 March-09 March-08 September-08 March-07 March-11 World Imports 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 September-07 US$ billion Fig-8.2: Trends in World Merchandise Trade Volume Source: CPB, World Trade Monitor (Netherlands) A steep fall was observed during January-May 2020 in the world merchandise trade which dropped to 8.6 percent compared to corresponding period last year. However, unlike the global financial crisis, the contraction was short lived. With the easing of lockdowns and acceleration in economic activity, a surge in trade was observed in June and July 2020, thus leading to full V-shaped recovery. The rebound in trade in the second half of 2020 is a reflection of increased demand for consumer durables from advanced economies and resumption of supply chains in emerging markets. Economic activities have been revived especially in main trading partners of Pakistan subsequent to development of vaccines. According to World Economic Outlook April 2021, the global economy is projected to grow by 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.4 percent in 2022. In line with growth in output, world trade volumes are also projected to grow by 8.4 percent in 2021 and 6.5 percent in 2022. The Brexit deal, ended in December 2020, has opened a number of opportunities for Pakistan to explore post-Brexit UK and Euroarea markets in the field of pharmaceuticals, surgical instruments, IT enabled services as well as processed food and agriculture products. Moreover, UK-Pakistan trade and investment relations may continue to benefit by the duty-free access available 154
189. Trade and Payments to Pakistan on more than 90 percent of its exports . The global economic recovery can help Pakistan in exploring more exports destinations and diversifying its products. Performance of Pakistan’s External Sector Amid the resurgent COVID-19 outbreak, tight containment restrictions were imposed in Pakistan, bringing the economic activities to a halt. Pakistan’s exports saw a sharp contraction in the month of April FY2020, (-47 percent M-o-M growth). However, Pakistan’s relatively better performance to control the spread of the virus, due in part to government’s swift policy response, helped to ease the strict lockdown strategy by following smart lockdown policy since the start of the fiscal year 2021. After the contraction induced by the COVID-19, policy stance has shifted from stabilization to growth. Thus, economic activities resumed to give boost to industrial production. Both exports and imports picked up the momentum, closely following the V-shaped recovery in line with global trade. The surge in imports may be attributed to the rising demand for intermediate goods with the resumption of economic activities. Current account turned to surplus owing to strong growth in remittances and moderate growth in exports. Market based exchange rate regime and reserve buffers helped to stabilize the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar. Fig-8.3: Trends of Pakistan's Exports & Imports 6000 Exports Imports US $ million 5000 4000 3000 2000 Mar FY 2021 Feb FY2021 Jan FY2021 Dec FY2021 Nov FY2021 Oct FY2021 Sep FY2021 Aug FY2021 Jul FY2021 Jun FY2020 May FY2020 Apr FY2020 Mar FY 2020 Feb FY2020 Jan FY2020 Dec FY2020 Nov FY2020 Oct FY2020 Sep FY2020 Aug FY2020 0 Jul FY2020 1000 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Exports Pakistan’s exports bounced back owing to proactive measures taken by the state authorities and it was among those countries whose exports recovered more rapidly. Initiatives taken to uplift the export-oriented industries amidst the COVID-19 outbreak include: • • • Gas and power subsidies through the industrial support package Extensions in the validity of subsidized power and gas utilities under erstwhile zero-rating certificates A cumulative Rs 190 billion enhancement in the limits of refinancing for banks under the Export Finance Scheme (EFS) and the Long Term Financing Facility (LTFF) 155
190. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 • • • • Loans deferment and restructuring Payroll support under the Rozgar Scheme Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) and Tax refunds to improve liquidity conditions of exporters. In order to meet the objectives of the National Tariff Policy, 2019-2024 and to remove distortions in the tariff structure, tariffs were rationalized as per details given below during the budget exercise 2020-21: • Additional Customs Duty (ACD) of 2 percent on 1623 tariff lines, consisting of basic raw materials, was removed. • Customs Duty on 90 tariff lines, consisting of intermediate goods/inputs not manufactured locally, was reduced from 11 to 3 percent and 0 percent. • In order to implement Government’s “Make in Pakistan Initiative”, tariffs were rationalized on 112 tariff lines. • Regulatory Duty (RD) on 36 tariff lines of iron & steel sector was reduced to ensure cheap raw materials for manufacturing sector. After the budget, the following further measures were taken: • ACD and RD on 164 tariff lines of textile sector such as fibers, yarn and fabrics of nylon, viscose, acrylic, silk, wool and vegetable-based fibers like hemp, not manufactured in the country, were removed in order to increase the share of Man Made Fiber (MMF) in textile exports. • In order to meet the demand of value-added textile sector, 5 percent RD on import of cotton yarn was removed and the tariff was reduced from 10 percent to 5 percent. • ACD on 152 tariff lines pertaining to raw materials, mostly chemicals, used by the local manufacturing sector was removed. It is worth mentioning that Pakistan has finally received the Geographical Indication (GI) tag for Basmati rice. It would strengthen Pakistan’s case against India in the European Union, where India has been trying to block Pakistan’s trade by claiming its Basmati was the geographically original one. This will provide protection to our products against misuse or imitation and hence will guarantee that their share in international market is protected. Merchandise Exports In line with world trade, Pakistan’s exports bounced back, after a sharp hit during strict lockdown in the last fiscal year, mainly due to export-oriented government policies and strong economic recoveries in the main export markets. Exports were targeted at US$ 22.7 billion for the fiscal year 2021. Exports during July-March FY2021 amounted to US$ 18.7 billion as compared to US$ 17.4 billion in the same period last year, which shows an impressive growth of 7.1 percent as compared to the 2.2 percent in the same period last year. 156
191. Trade and Payments Table 8 .1: Structure of Exports Particulars Units Total Food Group Rice M.T Sugar M.T Fish & Fish Preparation M.T Fruits M.T Vegetables M.T Wheat M.T Spices M.T Oil Seeds, Nuts & Kernels M.T Meat & Meat Preparation M.T Other Food Items B. Textile Manufactures Raw Cotton M.T Cotton Yarn M.T Cotton Cloth TH.SQM Knitwear TH.DOZ Bedwear M.T Towels M.T Readymade Garments TH.DOZ Made-up articles Other Textile Manufactures C. Petroleum Group Petroleum Products M.T Petroleum Top Neptha M.T D. Other Manufactures Carpets, Rugs & Mats TH.SQM Sports Goods TH.DOZ Leather Tanned TH.DOZ Leather Manufactures Surgical Goods. & Med. Inst. Chemical & Pharma. Pro. Engineering Goods Jewellery Cement M.T Guar & Guar Products M.T All Other Manufactures E. All Other items P : Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics A. July-March Values in US$ million 2020-21 2019-20 % Change (P) 17,443.3 18,687.4 7.1 3,396.0 3,332.2 -1.9 1,594.0 1,560.4 -2.1 70.7 317.3 303.6 -4.3 379.5 378.3 -0.3 257.9 246.1 -4.6 11.4 66.8 70.3 5.2 28.0 76.4 172.9 233.0 248.2 6.5 437.5 448.9 2.6 10,412.9 11,355.5 9.1 17.0 0.6 -96.5 819.8 721.2 -12.0 1,547.3 1,419.2 -8.3 2,299.9 2,780.9 20.9 1,761.6 2,052.3 16.5 592.4 692.1 16.8 2,170.6 2,268.6 4.5 492.3 565.5 14.9 712.1 855.1 20.1 July-March Quantity 2020-21 2019-20 (P) % Change in Quantity 3141961 181447 130148 722634 710472 48083 15755 20138 62653 - 2885388 136370 829224 699159 17446 68808 72863 - -8.2 4.8 14.8 -1.6 10.7 241.7 16.3 - 12776 336845 2003233 87345 338650 144407 43211 - 499 292997 875511 126677 343476 159028 27683 - -96.1 -13.0 -56.3 45.0 1.4 10.1 -35.9 - 132.7 86.2 46.5 2,426.2 48.7 222.7 151.3 401.0 303.0 85.8 53.3 32.5 2,565.9 54.3 192.2 113.3 427.7 324.3 -35.3 -38.2 -30.0 5.8 11.6 -13.7 -25.1 6.7 7.0 79956 100111 1302 13895 - 46687 96033 1087 8125 - -41.6 -4.1 -16.5 -41.5 - 734.5 140.4 3.2 210.1 27.3 211.4 1,075.4 844.2 164.0 6.5 210.0 25.8 229.4 1,348.0 14.9 16.8 103.5 0.0 -5.5 8.5 25.3 5592788 19926 - 6247086 21535 - 11.7 8.1 - Broad categories of exports exhibited the mixed performance (table 8.1). Food group, despite being a significant sector of the economy, declined by 1.9 percent during JulyMarch FY2021 compared to the same period last year. Within the food group, rice exports decreased both in quantity and value by 2.1 and 8.2 percent, respectively. The Basmati rice exports declined by 27.3 percent in value and 33.2 percent in quantity during July-March FY2021 as compared to the corresponding period last year. The contraction in export of rice was mainly driven by higher prices due to unavailability of shipment containers which raised the average cost of shipping. Taking advantage of the situation, India took over the market by offering lower prices to increase its share further. However, it is important to highlight that Pakistan has started reaping benefits 157
192. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 from long awaited GI tag for basmati rice against India received in January 2021 . Resultantly exports of basmati rice showed a remarkable turnaround and witnessed 73 percent growth in March FY2021(on M-o-M basis) over February FY2021. Other varieties under rice group witnessed a growth of 11.9 percent in value despite the decline of 1.6 percent in quantity due to higher domestic prices accompanied by tight supplies before the arrival of the new crop. However, the price impact was much stronger than the overall quantum impact. Export earnings from fruits contracted by 0.3 percent in value and increased by 14.8 percent in quantity. Vegetables also witnessed a decline of 4.6 percent in value and 1.6 percent in quantity. Fish & fish preparation subgroup decreased by 4.3 percent in value due to low price in international markets but its quantity increased by 4.8 percent as compared to last year. Exports of oil seeds, nuts & kernels witnessed a growth of 241.7 percent in quantity and 172.9 percent in value during July-March FY2021 as compared to the same period last year. The export of spices also increased by 5.2 percent in value and 10.7 percent in quantity during the period under review. Meat and meat preparation increased both in value and quantity by 6.5 and 16.3 percent, respectively signaling a recovery in production of livestock. Textile group, which has around 60 percent share in total exports, witnessed a growth of 9.1 percent during July-March FY2021 compared to the corresponding period last year. Rebound in exports of textile is the outcome of a series of incentives to support exporters to meet the challenges in the wake of COVID-19 and disruption in supplies. Moreover, the government’s decision to keep businesses open during lockdown provided an opportunity to secure orders diverted from economies under strict lockdown. Higher textile exports came on the back of quantum growth in high value-added products, particularly knitwear, home-textiles (bedwear and towels) and made-up articles. At the same time raw cotton, cotton yarn and cotton cloth showed a declining trend. This indicates countries preferences shifting from raw and intermediate goods to value added exports. To prop up the exports of high-value added textile, additional customs duty on import of raw cotton has been exempted by the government. Beside this, the sector also benefitted from Export Financing Scheme (EFS) and out of Rs 68.7 billion EFS loan, Rs 44.8 billion has been given to textile sector during July-March FY2021. This significantly helped to improve the liquidity conditions and enhanced the capacity utilization of the sector. Meanwhile declining share of China in the US apparel market and shifting focus from apparel to global textile market provided some room to Pakistan and other competitors to enhance their shares in apparel exports. In case of home textiles (bedwear and towels), exports increased by 16.6 percent Y-o-Y to US$ 2.7 billion on the back of higher unit values. Knitwear exports grew by 20.9 158
193. Trade and Payments percent in value and 45 .0 percent in quantity as compared to the corresponding period last year. Export earnings of readymade garments showed growth of 4.5 percent in value but a decline in quantity by 35.9 percent during the period under review. The exports of intermediate commodities like cotton yarn witnessed a fall both in value and quantity by 12.0 and 13.0 percent, respectively. It could be attributed to the lower production due to unfavorable weather conditions, pest and locust attacks last year. The same trend continued in the current fiscal year. Cotton cloth export declined both in quantity and value by 56.3 and 8.3 percent, respectively. The exports of petroleum products, largely affected by COVID-19, slumped by 35.3 percent. Moreover, petroleum crude exports also dropped by 58.9 percent and reached US$ 62.7 million. Export of items like leather tanned and gloves etc. could not grow in quantitative terms. In the case of sports goods, football – the major export item – witnessed a decline both in quantity and value by 29.7 and 23.2 percent, respectively. Export of carpets, rugs and mats registered a growth in value by 11.6 percent whereas the export quantity decreased by 16.5 percent as compared to the same period last year. The export of cement witnessed a strong growth in quantity by 11.7 percent but in value terms it remained the same as last year partly due to reduction in Federal Excise Duty (EFD) in wake of COVID-19 and a fall in coal prices. China and Sri Lanka were the main destinations as both countries used infrastructure as a tool for revival of the economy during the pandemic. Guar and guar products registered a decline in value by 5.5 percent but grew in quantity by 8.1 percent. Concentration of Exports Export growth is hindered owed to lack of diversification in export goods. The trend of Pakistan’s exports of major items has remained more or less the same with concentration on three items viz cotton manufactures, leather and rice (See Table 8.2). These three categories accounted for 70.5 percent of total exports during July-March FY2021. Fig-8.4: Pakistan's Major Exports (July-March) Cotton Manufactures Rice Leather Other items 30% 59% 29% 9% 58% Within these three items, cotton 4% manufactures remain the major contributor with 58.8 percent in total 8% exports. Thus, Pakistan’s exports are still 3% concentrated in a few items. The annual Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics percentage shares of the major export commodities are shown in figure 8.4 with the outer line representing data for FY2021 and the inner line showing FY2020. 159
194. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 8 .2: Pakistan's Major Exports Commodity 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Cotton Manufactures 54.5 55.0 Leather** 4.8 4.9 Rice 8.5 8.8 Sub-Total of three 67.8 68.7 Items Other items 32.2 31.3 Total 100.0 100.0 P: Provisional ** Leather & Leather Manufactured. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Percentage Share) July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 56.5 4.1 8.8 69.4 61.7 4.2 7.7 73.6 56.4 3.7 9.0 69.1 56.6 3.6 10.2 70.4 57.8 3.7 9.1 70.6 58.8 3.3 8.4 70.5 30.6 100.0 26.4 100.0 30.9 100.0 29.6 100.0 29.4 100.0 29.5 100.0 Direction of Exports Among the top export destinations, the USA continued to be the largest export market for Pakistan during July-March FY2021. Exports to the USA moderately increased from 17.3 percent in FY2020 to 19.7 percent in FY2021. Similarly share of exports to China increased from 8.0 percent to 9.7 percent during the period under review. Detailed bifurcation of major export markets is shown in the Table 8.3. Table 8.3: Major Exports Markets 2017-18 Country Rs % Share 15.7 7.3 6.5 7.3 5.7 4.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 1.8 41.1 100.0 USA 400.4 CHINA 185.7 AFGHANISTAN 165.2 UNITED KINGDOM 186.7 GERMANY 146.7 U.A.E 104 BANGLADESH 81 ITALY 84.5 SPAIN 104.5 FRANCE 45.5 All Other 1,050.8 Total 2,555.0 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 2018-19 Rs 532.8 259.6 176.4 226.8 173.4 125.8 101.8 107.4 126.5 53.9 1,243.8 3,128.2 % Share 17.0 8.3 5.6 7.3 5.5 4.0 3.3 3.4 4.0 1.7 39.8 100.0 2019-20 Rs 585.4 349.7 134.3 239.6 199.0 178.9 102.6 115.0 130.3 57.7 1,277.3 3,369.8 % Share 17.4 10.4 4.0 7.1 5.9 5.3 3.0 3.4 3.9 1.7 37.9 100.0 (Rs billion & Percentage Share) July-March 2019-20 2020-201P Rs % Rs % Share Share 471 17.3 593.6 19.7 219 8.0 292.9 9.7 115.6 4.2 126.9 4.2 194.7 7.1 245.3 8.1 162.1 5.9 187.7 6.2 141.6 5.2 118.8 3.9 91.8 3.4 126.9 4.2 92.4 3.4 92.6 3.1 109.2 4.0 108.1 3.6 44.8 1.6 49.8 1.6 1,083.0 39.7 1,077.7 35.7 2,725.2 100.0 3,020.3 100.0 Box-I: Bilateral Relation Pakistan attaches great importance to its trade relations with other trading partners. Pakistan’s trade engagements in the ongoing financial year are mentioned below: China-Pakistan Pakistan is engaged with China through a bilateral agreement in addition to other commercial agreements. The implementation of Phase-II of the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA) is a significant achievement for Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan has gained most favorable market access at par with ASEAN, in the Chinese market. The significant features of Phase-II of the CPFTA, inter alia, include immediate market access on 313 items of Pakistan’s prime export interest, more robust safeguard measures, inclusion of balance of payment clause and Electronic Data Exchange (EDE) to curb under-invoicing and mis-declaration of goods. 160
195. Trade and Payments Third China International Import Expo (CIIE) was held in Shanghai, China, on 5-10 November, 2020. Pakistan’s leading enterprises virtually showcased their products during the event. Moreover, awareness campaign was arranged by Ministry of Commerce during July-December FY2021, to sensitize the local business community about the benefits and opportunities available under Phase-II of the CPFTA. Pakistan-Japan The 7th Session of Japan-Pakistan High Level Economic Policy Dialogue (JPHLEPD) was held in March 2021 during which new proposals were shared regarding trade and economic relations between the two countries so as to explore opportunities to reap maximum benefits out of the longstanding and growing relations. In addition, a monitoring Committee was established to resolve issues faced by the business community of both countries. The first meeting of the Committee was held on 26 th November 2020 wherein both sides shared their willingness to promote discussions to facilitate and further strengthen bilateral trade and to address issues pending on both sides. Pakistan-South Korea Pakistan and South Korea held the 3rd Meeting of Joint Trade Committee on 6th January 2021 to discuss avenues for expansion of bilateral trade and investment linkages and prospects for preferential trading arrangements. Pakistan - Bangladesh Bangladesh remained the second largest export destination for Pakistan in South Asia after Afghanistan. The dynamics of the political relations between the two countries seem to be gradually moving in a positive direction. The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) is in the process of signing MoU with the High Commission of Pakistan to enhance business to business linkages. Pakistani businessmen were invited to participate in the DCCI Business Conclave virtually on 5 -7 January 2021. Pakistan-Sri Lanka The 7th Session of Pakistan, Sri Lanka Commerce Secretary Level Talks, was held on 18 th February 2021 wherein both countries renewed the resolve to further deepen bilateral ties and to work on resolving technical issues by reviving the platform of Joint Working Groups. Pakistan also held its first ever Trade and Investment Conference in Colombo on 24th February 2021 on the side-lines of visit of the Prime Minister of Pakistan to Sri Lanka. The event proved to be a huge success and leading businessmen from both countries attended the conference. During the visit of the Prime Minister, the Investment Promotion Agencies of both countries also signed MoU on Investment Promotion. Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan, Iran Region • Pakistan’s exports to Central Asia, Afghanistan and Iran increased from US $ 813.59 million to US$ 870.26 million during July-March FY2021. • A Joint Inter-Governmental commission meeting was held, in which Kazakhstan agreed to establish Joint Working Group on Trade and Investment with Pakistan to remove trade barriers between the two countries. • Pakistan’s exports to the Afghanistan increased to US$ 779.39 million during July-March FY2021, despite a continuing ban on export of wheat and sugar. The 7th and 8th Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Coordination Authority (APTTCA) meetings were held in which bilateral and transit trade issues were discussed. Besides, Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement was extended for three months beyond 11th February 2021. • The first meeting of Joint Working Group on Trade and Economic Affairs was held at Tashkent to discuss Preferential Trade Agreement and connectivity through Afghanistan through road and railway corridors. 161
196. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 • The 3rd Session of Pakistan, Azerbaijan Joint Working Group on Trade, was held in December 2020, to explore possibility of a Preferential Trade Agreement and cooperation in pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors, as well as in petroleum and LNG. • To strengthen the trade relations, the memorandum of understanding (MoU) on establishment of Border Sustenance Market Places with Iran was signed on 21st April, 2021 at Tehran. Pilot Projects of border marketplaces will be established at Gabd, Mand and Chedgi. Middle East Region • The overall bilateral trade of Pakistan with the Middle East region has decreased from US$ 10445.25 million in July-March FY2020 to US$ 9420.56 million in July-March FY2021, due to COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions. • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has expressed its willingness to resume Pak-GCC FTA negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce is taking preliminary steps before holding the 3rd round of negotiations. • To ensure continued exports of meat products to Saudi Arabia, two Halal Certifying Bodies have been registered with Saudi Food and Drug Authority and thirteen (13) companies have been registered with them. • The Trade Mission in Riyadh had prevented the unlawful registration in Saudi Arabia of ‘Kernal’ as trademark of India. • Six webinars to create awareness amongst Pakistani exporters were held in which Construction, Halal Accreditation, Information Technology and Pharmaceutical sectors were covered. Africa Total bilateral trade between Pakistan and Africa was recorded at US$ 3.15 billion during July-March FY2021. • Webinars were organized to familiarize Pakistani business community regarding sectorspecific dynamics, requirements and opportunities in African countries. • Sector-specific strategies for Africa to enhance exports of priority sectors, identified for Africa under Look Africa Policy, were drawn up. Initial meetings of all stakeholders of pharmaceuticals and surgical sectors were held and finalization of export development strategy for pharmaceutical sector is in progress. • The first official business delegation from Tanzania to Pakistan in approximately thirty years. • Participation in 38th International Khartoum Fair. United States The United States (US) is the largest single country destination for Pakistan’s exports. The volume of exports to the US stood at US$ 3,248.43 million during July-February FY2021, registering a growth of 21 percent. The volume of imports reached US$ 1,682.22 million against US$ 1,673.36 million last year. Europe Union (EU) Pakistani products have duty free access in all 28-member states of the EU on 91 percent tariff lines under EU’s “Special Incentive Arrangement for Good Governance and Sustainable Development”, which is also popularly known as GSP+, since 1st January 2014. Pakistan’s exports to EU increased by 4 percent to US$ 4,549.82 million during July-February FY2021. At the same time, Pakistan’s imports decreased by 3 percent to US$ 2,539.07 million. The trade balance is in favor of Pakistan with trade surplus amounting to US$ 2,010.75 million. 162
197. Trade and Payments Eastern Europe Pakistan ’s exports to the Russian Federation during July-February FY2021 saw a surge of 20 percent as the exports increased to US$ 121.70 million. However, the imports also saw a significant increase of 240 percent and reached US$ 563.18 million. The government has undertaken many initiatives for enhancing trade with the Eastern Europe region, prominent among them being: i. Promotional /marketing activity in the Eastern Europe region is being carried out as part of strategy to target non-traditional markets. ii. Ministry of Commerce is arranging business delegations of textile garments, sports goods, leather goods and surgical goods from Pakistan in coordination with Trade Development Authority of Pakistan. iii. To cater the demands of Eastern European region, Ministry of Commerce is carrying out market analysis of potential non-traditional sectors and products. Source: Ministry of Commerce Imports The total imports during July-March FY2021 clocked at US$ 39.5 billion as compared to US$ 34.8 billion in the same period last year, showing a growth of 13.6 percent. Nonenergy imports remained the main contributor in the rising import bill. The surge in imports may be attributed to the rising demand for intermediate goods due to the resumption of economic activities; supply shock in agricultural products especially wheat, sugar and cotton; government’s accommodative measures to underpin the production of industrial sector in the form of removal of customs duty on import of rawmaterials; and concessionary loans. Table 8.4: Structure of Imports Particulars A. B. Total Food Groups Milk & Milk food Wheat Unmilled Dry Fruits Tea Spices Edible Oil (Soyabean & Palm) Sugar Pulses Other Food Items Machinery Group Power generating Machines Office Machines Textile Machinery Const. & Mining Machines Aircrafts, Ships and Boats Agriculture Machinery Other Machinery Items Units M.T M.T M.T M.T M.T M.T M.T M.T July-March Value in US$ million 2020-21 2019-20 (P) 34,790.6 39,518.7 3,963.3 6,121.4 125.2 146.2 983.3 24.1 69.7 376.2 435.1 119.4 157.6 1,425.5 1,909.3 % Change in Value July-March Quantity % Change in Quantity 2020-21 (P) 2019-20 13.6 54.5 16.8 189.6 15.6 32.0 33.9 49748 16950 155372 99955 2342965 43929 3612638 60995 194962 135410 2516069 -11.7 259.9 25.5 35.5 7.4 2.3 428.8 1,461.8 3,787.4 921.1 127.5 448.4 1,844.3 4,503.9 1,381.5 5335.6 4.6 26.2 18.9 50.0 4751 859484 - 279529 842777 - 5783.6 -1.9 - 288.9 352.7 168.9 332.7 381.9 104.6 15.2 8.3 -38.1 - - - 239.7 380.1 58.6 - - - 73.2 1,742.9 66.0 1,857.1 -9.9 6.6 - - - 163
198. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 8 .4: Structure of Imports Particulars C. Units Petroleum Group Petroleum Products M.T Petroleum Crude M.T D. Consumer Durables Road Motor Vehicles Electric Mach. & Appliances E. Raw Materials Raw Cotton M.T Synthetic Fibre M.T Silk Yarn (Synth & M.T Arti) Fertilizer M.T Manufactured Insecticides M.T Plastic Material M.T Iron & steel Scrap M.T Iron & steel M.T F. Telecom G. All Other Items P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics July-March Value in US$ million 2020-21 2019-20 (P) 6,417.3 5,471.0 3,964.7 3,447.6 2,452.6 2,023.4 2,594.1 2,635.6 852.3 1,534.3 1,741.8 1,101.3 % Change in Value July-March Quantity 2019-20 2020-21 (P) % Change in Quantity -14.7 -13.0 -17.5 1.6 80.0 -36.8 8012377 5508826 - 10440246 6422166 - 30.3 16.6 - 5,753.8 556.1 339.1 429.9 7,160.7 1,032.1 441.0 499.8 24.5 85.6 30.0 16.3 338244 227365 210810 624945 346254 316656 84.8 52.3 50.2 482.3 440.2 -8.7 1423114 1259943 -11.5 108.6 1,490.2 1,188.2 1,159.3 1,328.5 10,946.3 129.9 1,771.1 1,418.8 1,427.8 1,913.7 11,712.4 19.6 18.8 19.4 23.2 44.0 7.0 19327 1196265 3050194 1806631 - 29450 1448760 3829438 2306105 - 52.4 21.1 25.5 27.6 - The highest contribution to the growth of total imports is that of food group. During JulyMarch FY2021, food group witnessed a growth of 54.5 percent and its import clocked at US$ 6,121.4 million as against US$ 3,963.3 million during the comparable period last year. Within food group, surge was observed in the import of wheat, sugar, palm oil and dry fruits. Due to supply disruptions in wheat and shortage of production in sugar, government reverted to import of wheat and sugar to meet demand and to control price hike. The edible oil, soybeans & palm, import bill, the heaviest item in the food group, increased in both quantity and value by 33.9 and 7.4 percent, respectively. The increase in the import bill of edible oil was mainly attributed to the rise in global palm oil prices, mainly due to lower production in Malaysia and rise in palm oil export levy by US$ 5 per tonne. The import bill of pulses surged by 4.6 percent during the period under review. The import of petroleum group declined by 14.7 percent during the period under review and reached US$ 5,471.0 million as compared to US$ 6,417.3 million during the corresponding period last year. This was mainly due to historically low global oil prices and limited transportation in the wake of COVID-19. Within the petroleum group, the petroleum products declined in value by 13.0 percent, despite an increase in quantity by 30.3 percent. Petroleum crude reduced in value by 17.5 percent and quantity increased by 16.6 percent. The fall in unit prices more than offset the impact of the quantum increase. Liquefied Natural Gas imports decreased by 22.6 percent in value and Liquefied Petroleum Gas imports surged by 42.8 percent. Machinery Group is the vital engine of growth for successful industrial and manufacturing sector development. Its import increased substantially by 18.9 percent 164
199. Trade and Payments and reached US $ 4,503.9 million against US$ 3,787.4 million last year. Within this group, import bill of power generating machinery increased by 49.9 percent and reached US$ 1,381.5 million as compared to US$ 921.1 million last year, mainly due to the ongoing work on CPEC-related power projects. The import bill of textile machinery registered an increase of 8.3 percent and stood at US$ 381.9 million against US$ 352.7 million last year. Electrical machinery & apparatus imports plummeted by 36.4 percent to US$ 1,112.6 million during July-March FY2021 compared with US$1,748.8 million in the same period last year. Within the machinery group, telecom sector imports accelerated by 44.0 percent to US$ 1,913.7 million as compared to US$ 1,328.5 million last year. Mobile phone imports increased by 56.7 percent and reached US$ 1,535.9 million as compared to US$ 979.9 million last year. Rising demand for mobile phones may be attributed to multiple factors, including reduction in taxes, changing work and educational environment like work from home and online schools in the wake of pandemic. The import of transport group surged by 68.7 percent and reached US$ 2,018.3 million during July-March FY2021 as compared to US$ 1,196.5 million last year. The import of road motor vehicle increased by 73.0 percent of which CBU increased by 82.5 percent and CKD/SKD increased by 91.2 percent during the period under review. Metal group import increased by 17.8 percent and reached US$ 3,621.4 million. Increased activity in the construction and automobile sectors led to a surge in import of iron and steel scrap by 19.4 percent in value and 25.5 percent in quantity. Imports of iron and steel also increased by 23.2 percent in value and 27.6 percent in quantity during the period under review. In the textile group, import of raw cotton witnessed an increase both in quantity and value by 84.8 and 85.6 percent, respectively during July-March FY2021 as compared to the same period last year. Plunge in cotton production and rising demand for high valueadded textile products of Pakistan in international markets (European and American), diverted from its competitors, compelled the producers to import significant amount of cotton thereby increasing the import bill. Direction of Imports Like exports, Pakistan’s imports are also highly concentrated in a few countries. Imports from countries like China, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Indonesia constitute around 50 percent of the total imports. During the current fiscal year, share of imports from China has increased from 23.6 percent to 27.1 percent during July-March FY2021. Share of imports from USA has increased marginally from 4.8 percent to 5.5 percent during the period under review. Change in Pakistan’s import pattern in recent years is shown in (Table 8.5). 165
200. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 8 .5: Major Import Markets Country CHINA 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Rs % Share 1,731.8 25.9 Rs % Share 1,734.3 23.3 Rs % Share 2328 33.1 (Rs billion & Percentage Share) July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P Rs % Share Rs % Share 1,267.2 23.6 1,725.8 27.1 UAE 893.3 13.3 1020.1 13.7 812.7 11.6 759.7 14.1 602.2 9.4 SAUDI ARABIA 356.4 5.3 401.3 5.4 273.6 3.9 286.2 5.3 301.9 4.7 KUWAIT 159.7 2.4 185.8 2.5 178.7 2.5 133.8 2.5 167 2.6 INDONESIA 278.5 4.2 327.3 4.4 339.6 4.8 245.5 4.6 360.6 5.7 INDIA 207.5 3.1 204.8 2.8 59.9 0.9 154.8 2.9 38.3 0.6 U.S. A 316.4 4.7 368.9 5.0 396.7 5.6 259.5 4.8 351.1 5.5 JAPAN 266.5 4.0 246.1 3.3 174.7 2.5 188.0 3.5 173.8 2.7 GERMANY 146.4 2.2 142.6 1.9 124.2 1.8 105.4 2.0 122.2 1.9 MALAYSIA 132 2.0 145.5 2.0 148.3 2.1 103.0 1.9 134.3 2.1 35.8 2,193.4 31.2 1,867.9 34.8 2,400 37.6 100.0 7,029.8 100.0 5,371.1 100.0 6,377.2 100.0 All Other Total 2,206.5 6,695 33.0 2,666.5 100.0 7443.3 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Box-II: E-Commerce in Pakistan Pakistan’s first ever e-commerce policy was approved by the Federal Cabinet in October 2019. The policy aims to facilitate holistic growth of e-commerce in Pakistan by creating an enabling environment, reducing cost of doing business and lowering the threshold for enterprises to become part of the ecommerce. The policy outlines targeted interventions in key areas of regulation, payment infrastructure, taxation, consumer protection, logistics, data protection and SME growth among others. According to SBP report, Pakistan’s e-commerce market size rose to Rs 96 billion upto Q1-2021 from Rs 71 billion in Q1-2020 with cash on delivery assumed at 60 percent of value, whereas in terms of prepayment it rose from Rs 29 billion to Rs 39 billion during the same period. E-Commerce merchants with prepayment have increased to 2,164 from 1,410 in the past 12 months. E-commerce merchants registered with Banks are increasing i.e. more than 8,600 in number during Q3-2020 while the average order value is decreasing as there is decrease in 1,000 points from 4,000 to 3,000 approximately in the same quarter. Prepayment orders per day have increased to 43,333 orders/day in Q3-2020. Measures Taken to Facilitate E-Commerce Outward Remittances to Digital Service Provider Companies: The State Bank, in August 2020, introduced a new mechanism for payments to globally recognized digital service provider companies against acquisition of digital services by local companies. The mechanism allows payment of up to US$ 200,000 to 62 digital service providers without prior approval from the State Bank. Moreover, authorized dealers can also release foreign exchange up to a maximum of US$ 25,000 per annum to digital services providers not included in the list. Exception of requirement of Form E for E-Commerce exports: The State Bank, in December 2020, allowed the e-commerce exporter exemption from filing Form-E for exports under US$ 5,000. The exemption will greatly facilitate ease of doing business and will help small entrepreneurs and exporters who typically export varied goods in small quantities. Separate Module in Web Based One Customs (WeBOC): In collaboration with Pakistan Customs and other stakeholders, a separate module has been developed in WeBOC to promote Business-toConsumer (B2C) e-commerce exports. The new system will facilitate documentation and allow commercial banks to register e-commerce traders in WeBOC. Increase in Payment limit for Freelancers: The State Bank, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, increased the payment limit for freelancers to US$ 25,000 from US$ 5,000 in February 2020. The increase in limit would enable freelancers to expand their business operations and engage new individuals to join the workforce. 166
201. Trade and Payments Pay Fast : The State Bank has approved e-commerce payment gateway “PayFast” to start its operations. PayFast is similar to international gateways like Stripe, Square and Razorpay and has more than 150 merchants on board as well as 12 partner banks. PayFast provides payment acceptance through multiple instruments, such as UnionPay, Visa and Mastercard cards, mobile wallets and bank account numbers. Enlisting of more than 30 exporters on Amazon.com: Ministry of Commerce facilitated enlisting of more than 30 exporters with the well-known international e-commerce platform Amazon. This will allow Pakistani sellers to be directly registered from Pakistan and interact with buyers. After a trial run, registration will be expanded to other companies. EMS Plus: The Pakistan Post has launched its first mobile application and export parcel service “EMS Plus” which facilitates small businesses to send their consignments/parcels abroad to any destination within 72 hours. The service was initially started in January 2019 for seven destinations but has been now expanded to the entire world. Specialized banking products for Freelancers: The State Bank is encouraging banks to develop separate products to facilitate the freelancers. In this regard, Faysal Bank and JS Bank Ltd are offering customized products for freelancers. Faysal Bank has signed up with Payoneer and the freelancers can pull their funds to their account with a few clicks. JS Bank has also developed JS Freelancers account that accepts freelance income from five main freelance platforms as valid source of income and has various incentives for freelancers. Source: Ministry of Commerce Balance of Payment Amidst the uncertain and precarious global economic environment, where the global economy was lurching under the impact of the unprecedented COVID-19 shock, Pakistan’s external sector has appeared as a key buffer for resilience. The comfortable external balance position of Pakistan has been supported by surplus current account balance on the back of robust remittances flow and a sustained recovery in exports. Furthermore, improvements in services and primary income account also provided cushion to turn current account deficit of US$ 4.1 billion into surplus of US$ 959 million during July-March FY2021. Fig-8.5: Balance of Payment (US$ million) 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 -7,000 -8,000 959 235 183 -1,364 Jul-Mar FY2020 -4,147 Current Account Jul-Mar FY2021 Capital Account -7,354 Financial Account Source: State Bank of Pakistan 167
202. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Current Account During July-March FY2021 , current account posted a surplus of US$ 959 million (0.5 percent of GDP) against a deficit of US$ 4,147 million last year (2.1 percent of GDP). The main driver of improvement in current account balance was the robust growth in remittances. Even during the global economic crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflows accelerated posting a year-on-year growth of 26.2 percent during the period under review over the same period last year and thus defying the general expectation of a decrease1. Table 8.6: Summary Balance of Payments Items Current Account Balance Trade Balance Exports of Goods FOB Imports of Goods FOB Service Balance Exports of Services Imports of Services Income Account Balance Income: Credit Income: Debit Balance on Secondary Income Of which: Workers’ Remittances P: Provisional Source: State Bank of Pakistan July-June 2018-19 2019-20 -13,434 -4,449 -27,612 -21,109 24,257 22,536 51,869 43,645 -4,970 -3,316 5,966 5,437 10,936 8,753 -5,610 -5,459 578 479 6,188 5,938 24,758 25,435 21,740 23,131 US $ million July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P -4,147 959 -15,855 -18,657 18,281 18,700 34,136 37,357 -2,861 -1,362 4,345 4,372 7,206 5,734 -4,135 -3,594 383 412 4,518 4,006 18,704 24,572 17,008 21,468 Concurrently, primary income account also provided cushion to improve current account balance. The lower interest payments and deferment of debt repayment (both interest and principal) under G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) have contributed to improve the balance of primary income as the deficit declined from US$ 4.1 billion to US$ 3.6 billion during July-March FY2021. The services trade deficit shrank by 52.4 percent mainly because of strong demand of telecommunication services amidst lockdown and air travel restrictions. On the contrary, trade deficit in goods is widening owing to escalating imports of capital goods and industrial raw materials, as the economy is reviving from deadly implication of coronavirus lockdown and a rise in international commodity prices. Meanwhile, import of agricultural commodities like sugar, wheat and cotton, due to shortage in production, is another major contributor in widening of the trade deficit from US$ 15.9 billion to US$ 18.7 billion thus surging the deficit by 17.4 percent. 1 Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its report published during April 2020 titled “COVID-19 Impact on International Migration, Remittances and Recipient Households in Developing Asia” projected that Pakistan would be among the 5 worst hit countries in terms of economy wide remittance loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 168
203. Trade and Payments Fig-8 .6: Trends in Pakistan's Current Account Balance Balance on trade in goods Balance on primary income CAB 30000 Balance on trade in services Balance on secondary income 20000 US$ million 10000 0 -10000 -20000 -30000 -40000 -50000 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 (Jul-Mar) Source: State Bank of Pakistan Balance in Trade of Goods and Services During July-March FY2021, export of goods grew by 2.3 percent to US$ 18.7 billion as compared to US$ 18.3 billion the same period last year. Import of goods grew by 9.4 percent to US$ 37.4 billion as compared to US$ 34.2 billion last year. Consequently, the trade deficit increased by 17.7 percent to US$ 18.7 billion as compared to US$ 15.9 billion last year. The exports of services moderately increased from US$ 4.34 billion to US$ 4.37 billion, thus showing a growth of 0.6 percent, owing to restrictions imposed on air travel during lockdowns. Meanwhile, remote working and online education also contributed in rising demand for telecommunication services by 43.6 percent whose export reached US$ 1.5 billion against US$ 1.1 billion last year. Fig: 8.5 Monthly Exports and Imports of Services US$ million Exports of Services 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 Imports of Services Deficit in Services Account 772 769 469 454 571 476 346 Jul-20 Aug-20 649 Sep-20 432 Oct-20 505 554 Nov-20 627 481 Dec-20 678 644 Jan-21 487 Feb-21 564 628 Mar-21 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 169
204. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Fig-8 .8: Exports of Services US$ million Transport Construction Other business services Travel Telecommunications, Computere etc Government goods and services 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jul-Mar FY20 Jul-Mar FY21 Source: State Bank of Pakistan On the other side, import of services declined by 20.4 percent and stood at US$ 5.7 billion as compared to US$ 7.2 billion last year. The major component in imports of services is transport which declined by 20 percent and reached US$ 2.0 billion as compared to US$ 2.5 billion in the same period last year. All other sectors also declined except telecommunications, computer and information services which grew by 37.8 percent due to rising demand for computers or digital services in the wake of pandemic. Consequently, deficit in services came down by 52.4 percent during the period under review. Fig-8.9: Imports of Services (US$ million) Maintenance Transport Travel Construction Insurance and Pension Financial Charges for intellectual property ICT Other business Personal Government goods and services 17.9% Jul-Mar FY20 Jul-Mar FY21 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Remittances Worker remittances have remained an important source of foreign exchange earnings over the years and are considered to be a dominant force in keeping the current account deficit at a manageable level. According to the World Migration Report 2020 released by United Nations, out of all international migrants more than 40 percent in 2019 were born in Asia, primarily originating from India, China and South Asian countries such as 170
205. Trade and Payments Bangladesh , Pakistan and Afghanistan. In some countries, remittances exceed 5 percent of GDP such as in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The pandemic broke the growth momentum of international remittance inflows. However, some governments took initiatives to incentivize transfers by lessening compliance checks, restrictions and transaction fees; as well as undertaking aggressive promotion campaigns to migrants to prop up remittances. Pakistan has been placed among the top ten recipient countries that received most remittances in 2020 and its share as a percent of GDP increased to 9.9 percent2. Workers’ remittances in Pakistan have Fig-8.10: Workers' Remittances been rising consistently since FY2018 and (US$ million) the trend continued in FY2021 with a 25000 30 26.22 Q1 remarkable growth of 26.2 percent. Q2 25 Q3 Remittances thus reached US$ 21.5 billion 20000 YoY Growth 20 during the first nine months of FY2021. 15000 15 However, on a Y-o-Y basis, remittances 8.29 10 posted a record high growth of 43.1 10000 6.10 5 percent in March 2021 and clocked at 4.95 5000 0 US$ 2.7 billion as compared to US$ 1.9 -1.97 0 -5 billion last year. On month on month basis FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 in March 2021, remittances accelerated Source: State Bank of Pakistan by 20.3 percent as compared to February 2021. Robust growth has been observed in the inflows of workers’ remittances even during pandemic due in part to governments’ proactive policies and the efforts by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to spur inflows through formal channels. Banks are being encouraged to promote digital products under Pakistan Remittance Initiatives. Simultaneously, limited air travel also forced people to use more formal channels. In addition, a larger number of Pakistani workers living in the Gulf, USA and Europe sent extra money back home to ease the catastrophic impact of the pandemic. Major chunk of remittances is sent by the expatriates living in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UK and the USA. Details has been discussed in Table 8.7. Table 8.7: Country/Region Wise Cash Worker's Remittances July-March Country/Region 2019-20 2020-21 Saudi Arabia 4.8 5.7 U.A.E. 4.2 4.5 USA 1.2 1.9 U.K. 2.3 2.9 Other GCC Country 2.3 2.5 Malaysia 0.2 0.2 EU Countries 1.3 1.9 Others Countries 0.7 1.9 Total 17.0 21.5 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 2 (US$ billion) % Change Share 20.0 26.7 7.3 21.1 52.6 8.9 28.1 13.5 8.6 11.5 -17.4 0.7 49.0 9.0 147.8 8.6 26.2 100.0 Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/20166/top-10-remittance-receiving-countries/ 171
206. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Box-III : Cross-Country Comparison of Remittances during COVID-19 and Way Forward Initially, the start of pandemic led to general expectations of fall in remittance flows globally, mainly due to possible jobs losses. However, the actual impact on remittances seems varied and uneven through the pandemic period. WR inflows of selected countries (% YoY change) Workers remittances trends in peer countries Bangladesh Sri Lanka 60% 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Phillipines Bangladesh Srilanka Pakistan Q4-2020 Q1-2021 40% 20% Jan-21 Source: Haver and Central Banks of respective countries remittance inflows fared better Pakistan’s Mar-21 Nov-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 May-20 Jan-20 Mar-20 Nov-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 May-19 Jan-19 0% Mar-19 Index(2018=100) Pakistan Phillipines -20% Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Source: Haver and Central Banks of respective countries than some of its peers. In March 2020, many comparable countries saw a fall in their remittance inflows while Pakistan sustained its level. Philippines and Sri Lanka did not see major shift in their remittance inflows. However, the increase has been quite pronounced for Pakistan and Bangladesh and the trend has broadly sustained till March 2021. In the coming months, workers’ remittances are expected to remain higher on seasonal grounds due to the onset of Ramadan and Eid festivals. Outlook for Remittances The policy measures and government’s strong determination to support the workers’ immigration are going to be helpful in supporting the momentum in workers’ remittances. Further positive impact is expected from the global recovery from COVID-19 during 2021 and 2022. Moreover, various steps undertaken for AML/CTF will help facilitate the inflows through formal channels. This supports the assumption that the current level of remittances is sustainable in the medium term and can be supplemented with further focus on skill-upgrade of the workers going abroad and streamlining the immigration process. However, understanding and addressing any issues arising from recent changes made to the Kafala system in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, major host countries for Pakistani migrant workers and speed and success of domestic vaccination drive against the COVID-19 pandemic are some of the risks to remittance inflows in the near term. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Financial Account The financial account recorded a marginal inflow of US$ 1.3 billion on net basis during July-March FY2021, as against much higher inflows of US$ 7.3 billion realized in same period last year. The outflow reflects a build-up in FX assets of commercial banks abroad. However, the asset build-up partially stemmed from the accumulation of net current account receipts abroad, following the heavy inflow of foreign exchange via remittances, an increase in trade credits and subdued import payments. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Amid the uncertain prospects of economic recovery, global cross-border investments recorded a sharp contraction in 2020 of around 42 percent (global decline of US$ 630 billion), as ongoing projects were postponed by multinational enterprises. The major 172
207. Trade and Payments brunt was borne by developed economies (almost 80 percent of total loss), in greenfield investment, wholesale trade, financial services and manufacturing. Developing countries appeared to be relatively resilient. China, the largest recipient of FDI, witnessed a small growth of 4 percent in 2020. On the contrary, FDI in South Asia surged by 10 percent. FDI in India grew by 13 percent in digital economies owing to rising demand of digital services amid lockdowns.3 During July-March FY2021, FDI in Pakistan reached US$ 1.4 billion compared to US$ 2.2 billion last year mainly due to sharp increase in gross outflows, which reflects the repayment of intercompany loans by firms in the communication, electrical machinery and power sectors during the period. On Y-o-Y basis, FDI reached US$ 167.6 million in March FY2021 compared to US$ 278.7 million in the same month last year. The inflows of FDI reached US$ 2.3 billion during July-March FY2021 compared to US$ 2.7 billion last year. The outflows of FDI during July-March FY2021 reached US$ 872.8 million against US$ 548.5 million last year. Country wise analysis suggest that China has highest share in FDI (46.7 percent of total FDI) as China is continuing its investment into CPEC-related projects, particularly in the power sector. The inflows from China increased by 1.9 percent and reached US$ 962.4 million as compared to US$ 944.5 million in the same period last year. However, net FDI from China declined by 24.3 percent, as FDI outflows to China also significantly increased as compared to last year. Similarly, major investment was concentrated in power sector with highest FDI of US$ 737.8 million (52.9 percent of total FDI). The detailed bifurcation has shown in the Figure 8.11 and Figure 8.12. Fig: 8.11 Country-Wise FDI (July-March FY2021, %) Fig: 8.12 Sector-Wise FDI (July-March FY2021, %) All Others 15.1 8% 2% China 46.7 Malta 3.0 8% Germany 3.3 12% Norway 4.4 55% US 6.3 15% Netherlands 4.7 Switzerland 5.0 U.A.E 5.3 Hongkong 7.6 UK 7.5 Power Oil & Gas Explorations Electrical Machinery Financial Business Trade All Others Source: State Bank of Pakistan The major share of China’s FDI is driven from the Phase-I projects under the CPEC. In second phase, the investment focus is supposed to shift from energy sector to industrial 3 Investment Trend Monitor, Issue 38, January 2021, UNCTAD. 173
208. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 development , agriculture mechanization, tourism and social development. However, these sectors are yet to see any significant foreign investment flows. Further, while global FDI had dropped in 2020, there were still some major developing economies that managed to attract higher foreign investment. In particular, developing Asia observed a decline of only 4 percent in 2020, with East Asian countries attracting around one-third of the global FDI in 2020. This indicates that there is a need for further progress on structural reforms in Pakistan. It also shows that Pakistani firms need to engage more actively in the global value chain so as to land partnerships with major global companies. Table 8.8: Foreign Investment FY2019 A. Foreign Private Investment Foreign Direct Investment Inflow Outflow Portfolio Investment Equity Securities Debt Securities B. Foreign Public Investment Portfolio Investment Total Foreign Investment (A+B) P: Provisional Source: State Bank of Pakistan FY2020 947.2 1,362.4 2,785.2 1,422.8 -415.2 -415.2 2,315.8 2,597.5 3,322.1 724.6 -281.7 -281.7 -1,002 -1,002 -54.8 -241.3 -241.3 2,074.5 (US$ million) July-March FY2020 FY2021 P 2,046.7 1,129.9 2,150.3 1,395 2,698.8 2,267.9 548.5 872.8 -103.6 -265.2 -103.6 -265.2 331.1 331.1 2,377.8 -3.5 -3.5 1,126.4 Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) The global financial markets recovered on the back of substantial support from the governments and the central banks. The emerging markets further benefited from the lower interest rates in the advanced economies, encouraging investors to search for higher yields in EMs. However, not all EMs have benefitted equally from this phenomenon. The foreign portfolio investment during July-March FY2021 witnessed a net outflow of US$ 268.7 million as against an inflow of US$ 227.5 million in the same period last year. Outflows were recorded from both debt (US$ 3.5 million) and equity securities (US$ 265.2 million). It is worth mentioning that Pakistan has entered the international capital market after a gap of over three years by successfully raising US$ 2.5 billion through a multi-tranche transaction of 5, 10 and 30-year Eurobonds at coupon rates of 6.0, 7.4 and 8.9 percent, respectively. The transaction generated great interest as leading global investors from Asia, Middle East, Europe and the US participated in the global investor calls and the order book. This is for the first time that Pakistan has adopted a programme-based approach with registration of Global Medium-Term Note programme. The programme will allow Pakistan to tap the market at short notice. The government intends to make full use of this programme and become a regular issuer in the International Capital Markets. 174
209. Trade and Payments The trend of net FPI outflows from Pakistan ’s equity market is interesting, as the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has given investors sizable returns. The price-toearnings (P/E) ratio of the PSX has been driven upwards by domestic investors’ sentiments, mainly on account of a pickup in the domestic economic activity. Further, the P/E discount at which the PSX was trading against the MSCI EM Index also started to widen from September 2020 onwards. However, the equity outflow increased probably due to elevated level of the country’s risk premium. Although, the credit default swap on the country’s sovereign debt improved by more than 150 basis points from March 2020 level, it is still higher compared with the same period last year. Reserves and Exchange rate Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased to US$ 20.6 billion by the end of March 2021, up by US$ 1.7 billion, indicating a growth of 9.1 percent over end-June 2020. The breakup of reserves accumulation in March 2021 shows that the SBP’s reserves increased by US$ 1.4 billion to the US$ 13.5 billion and commercial banks’ reserves by US$ 355.8 million to US$ 7.1 billion over end-June 2020. As the current account situation started improving on the back of restrained recovery in exports and vigorous growth in worker remittances, country’s foreign exchange buffers started pushing up and the Pakistani Rupee started to appreciate. Moreover, strong inflows through Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA) also provided further support to the Rupee. The introduction of market-based exchange rate regime earlier also helped to stabilize and strengthen the Pakistani Rupee against the US dollar. As a result, the exchange rate reached Rs 152.5 per US$ by the end of March 2021, effectively appreciating the rupee by 10.01 percent over end-June 2020. Furthermore, availability of external financing debt relief under DSSI and continued support from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) like Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and World Bank also helped to sustain the level of foreign reserves throughout the year. Fig 8.13 Foreign Exchange Reserves & Exchange Rate NET RESERVES WITH SBP 22,000 20,000 US$ million 18,000 16,000 NET RESERVES WITH BANKS Exchane Rate 170 165 160 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 155 150 145 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 175
210. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Box-IV : Transition to Market-based Exchange Rate and its Impact on Current Account Balance Cognizant of emerging risks to macroeconomic stability, the State Bank of Pakistan adopted marketbased exchange rate regime in May 2019. Resultantly, the current account deficit (CAD) of US$ 19.2 billion in FY2018 gradually came down to US$ 13.4 billion in FY2019 and improved further to US$ 4.4 billion in FY2020. Subsequently, the CAD during July-March FY2021 turned into surplus of US$ 959 million on cumulative basis as compared to a deficit of US$ 4.1 billion in the same period of FY2020. Much of the improvement came from robust growth in the workers’ remittances since FY2020. Following are some developments that have led to the sustained Current Account improvement so far in the current year: Nov-20 Sep-19 Apr-20 Feb-19 Jul-18 Dec-17 Oct-16 May-17 Mar-16 Jan-15 Aug-15 Jun-14 Apr-13 Real Effective Exchange Rate 120 NEER REER RPI 115 110 May-2019=100 105 100 95 90 85 80 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 The transition towards the market based flexible exchange rate regime helped retain competitiveness in external trade. While nominal exchange rate is important, to retain external competitiveness, the inflation differential with trading partners and share of trade weight also matter. Accordingly, it is also important to note that the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), that accounts for these aspects, fared well after the adoption of the market-based regime in May 2019. As figure shows that REER index, relative to its level in May 2019 when the extent of overvaluation was deemed corrected, has remained relatively stable around the same level indicating that underlying competitiveness of the economy has been preserved. Nov-13 PKR Market based exchange rate led to a sharp reduction in kerb premium; supporting Kerb Premium (30 days moving avg.) growth in workers remittances: Workers’ May 2019 remittances continued to extend their 3.5 3.0 unprecedented streak of above US$ 2.0 billion 2.5 for the tenth consecutive month in March-2021. 2.0 Notably, the monthly inflow subsequent to 1.5 introduction of market-based exchange regime 1.0 remains higher as compared to the average 0.5 monthly inflow before the regime was put in 0.0 place. This is well complemented by the -0.5 entrenchment of drastic reduction in the kerb -1.0 premium after introduction of the market-based exchange rate regime, which will be instrumental in encouraging any growth of Source: State Bank of Pakistan remittances to flow through formal channels. The existence of orderly foreign exchange market conditions, along with the emerging evidence that investment opportunities provided through Roshan Digital Accounts are gaining momentum, are going to support the Current Account in the coming months. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Following adoption of market-based exchange rate, non-essential imports remained in check. Despite general appreciation of the Pak rupee during FY2021 so far, imports during July-February FY2021 increased by 7.8 percent (y/y). However, if adjusted for import of one-off items, which include wheat (US$ 916 million), sugar (US$ 127 million) and raw cotton in excess from same period during FY2020 due to domestic shortfall (US$ 480 million), import growth during July-February FY2021 amounts to a much lower level of 2.9 percent. 176
211. Trade and Payments Export growth after adoption of the marketbased exchange rate regime has been encouraging . After a decline in FY2020, led by the COVID-19 related disruptions during Q4 FY2020, exports during July-February FY2021 increased by 4.4 percent (y/y). The two-way movement of the Pak rupee against the US$ played a key role in stabilizing REER and maintaining export competitiveness during heightened global uncertainty. This is evident from the recovery in volumes of major exports after extreme pandemic period between April-July 2020 (Figure 3). Fig 3: Export Volumes, Monthly Average FY19=10 120 Pre-Covid (Jan-Mar 20) Covid period (Apr-Jul 20) Post Covid Period (Aug-Feb 21) 100 80 60 40 20 0 So far, this new mechanism has served well for HVA LVA Food Manuf. Total textiles textiles rebuilding Pakistan’s FX reserve. As compared to *PBS. Volumes data covers 83% of total exports FY2019 (US$ 7.3 billion) and FY2020 (US$ 12.1 billion), SBP official FX reserves stood at US$ 16.1 billion on 9th April 2021. Along with this, SBP’s forward swap liabilities have been curtailed to US$ 4.5 billion at present from US$ 8.0 billion during FY2019. In aggregate, country’s foreign exchange buffers increased by US$ 12.3 billion. Source: State Bank of Pakistan Conclusion As global trade teetered under the COVID-19 strain, concerns over the future of global supply chains emerged. The COVID-19 outbreak had severely disrupted world’s crossborder trade and economic activities and exposed vulnerabilities of global supply chains. However, swift actions have been promptly executed globally. Meanwhile the approvals for usage of vaccines also raised hopes to turnaround in pandemic. Business activities resumed as the economies emerged from lockdowns. This paved the way for international trade to recover at the end of 2020 to pre-corona virus levels, making up for the sharp hit from the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of the year. Although the pandemic is not over yet, Pakistan has demonstrated a great deal of resilience, due in part to authorities’ swift policy responses and regional cooperation efforts. The performance of Pakistan remained relatively better in controlling the spread of the virus which helped to ease the strict lockdown strategy in the very start of the fiscal year 2021. As a result, economic activities have resumed giving a boost to industrial production. Both exports and imports picked up the momentum, showing the V-shaped recovery in line with global trade. The surge in imports may be attributed to the rising demand for intermediate goods with the resumption of economic activities. Current account turned to surplus owing to strong growth in remittances and moderate growth in exports. The Pakistani rupee stabilized against the US dollar due to available external financing and market-based exchange rate regime. The better performance of external sector in FY2021 is expected to continue in coming years on account of domestic economic rebound as well as global economic recovery especially in Pakistan’s trading partners. Further government efforts regarding export diversification and exploration of new destinations will help in improving external sector in general and trade balance in particular. 177
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213. Chapter 9 Public Debt 9 .1 Introduction Public debt management is a process of formulating and executing a multi-pronged debt strategy to ensure that both the level and rate of growth in public debt is fundamentally sustainable while ensuring that the government financing needs and its payment obligations are met at the lowest possible cost over the medium to long term, consistent with a prudent degree of risk. Public debt portfolio witnessed various developments during ongoing fiscal year, some of them are highlighted as follows:  Over 80 percent of the net borrowing from domestic sources was through mediumto-long-term domestic debt instruments (Pakistan Investment Bonds and Government Ijara Sukuks) during first nine months of current fiscal year;  Profile of domestic debt has improved significantly during the tenure of present government. Short-term debt as percentage of total domestic debt has decreased to around 23 percent at end March 2021 compared with 54 percent at end June 2018;  In-line with the government’s commitment, no new borrowing was made from State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). In fact, government repaid Rs 569 billion during the ongoing fiscal year against its debt owed to SBP. The cumulative debt retirement against SBP debt stood over Rs 1.1 trillion during last two fiscal years;  The Rs 25,000, Rs 15,000 and Rs 7,500 denominations prize bonds were withdrawn from circulation in order to improve the documentation of the economy. The holders have been given options to (i) convert to premium prize bonds; or (ii) replace them with eligible National Savings Certificates; or (iii) encash at face value into their bank accounts;  Pakistan entered the international capital market after a gap of over three years by successfully raising US$ 2.5 billion through a multi-tranche transaction of 5-, 10- and 30-year Eurobonds under its first-ever Global Medium Term Note Programme;  Debt from multilateral and bilateral sources cumulatively constituted over 80 percent of external public debt portfolio at end March 2021. A set of reforms initiated by the government to improve the economy has brought strong support from multilateral development partners during last two years. This is expected to strengthen confidence and catalyze additional support from development partners
214. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 in the coming years which will also help in reducing the pressure on domestic sources ;  Pakistan is availing the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) for a period of 20-months (May 2020 - December 2021) which will help to defer the debt servicing impact to the tune of around US$ 3.7 billion during this period. Over the medium-term, government objective is to reduce its “Gross Financing Needs (GFN)” through various measures mainly including (i) better cash flow management through a treasury single account; (ii) lengthening of maturities in the domestic market keeping in view cost and risks trade-off; (iii) developing regular Islamic based lending program; and (iv) avail maximum available concessional external financing from bilateral and multilateral development partners to benefit from concessional terms and conditions. 9.2 Public Debt Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation (FRDL) Act 2005 defines “Total Public Debt” as debt owed by Government (including Federal Government and Provincial Governments) serviced out of consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund. Table-9.1: Total Public Debt (Rs in billion) Domestic Debt External Debt Total Public Debt Total Debt of the Government1 Jun-13 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Mar-21 9,520 16,416 20,732 23,283 25,552 4,771 8,537 11,976 13,116 12,454 14,292 24,953 32,708 36,399 38,006 13,457 23,024 29,521 33,235 33,724 (In percent of GDP) Domestic Debt 42.5 47.4 54.4 56.0 53.6 External Debt 21.3 24.7 31.4 31.6 26.1 Total Public Debt 63.8 72.1 85.9 87.6 79.7 Total Debt of the Government1 60.1 66.5 77.5 80.0 70.7 (Memorandum Items) GDP (current market price) 22,386 34,616 38,086 41,556 47,709 Government Deposits with the banking system2 834 1,929 3,187 3,163 4,281 US Dollar, last day average exchange rates 99.1 121.5 163.1 168.2 152.6 1 As per Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005 amended in June 2017, "Total Debt of the Government" means the debt of the Government (including the Federal Government and the Provincial Governments) serviced out of the consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) less accumulated deposits of the Federal and Provincial Governments with the banking system. 2 Accumulated deposits of the Federal and Provincial Governments with the banking system. Source: State Bank of Pakistan and Debt Policy Coordination Office, Ministry of Finance Total public debt was recorded at Rs 38,006 billion at end March 2021, registering an increase of Rs 1,607 billion during first nine months of current fiscal year which was much less when compared with the increase of Rs 2,499 billion witnessed during the same period last year. The increase in total public debt during first nine months of current fiscal year was even lower than Federal Government borrowing of Rs 2,065 billion for financing of its fiscal deficit. The differential is primarily attributable to 180
215. Public Debt appreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar by around 9 percent which led to decrease in the value of external public debt when converted into Pak Rupees . The trend in total public debt since 1971 is depicted in Box-I. Box-I: Trend in Total Public Debt Table-9.2: Year Wise Total Public Debt Position Year Domestic Debt External Debt Year Domestic Debt 1971 14 16 30 1988 523 2005 2,178 2,034 4,211 1972 17 38 55 1989 333 300 634 2006 2,322 2,038 4,359 1973 20 40 60 1990 381 330 711 2007 2,601 2,201 4,802 1974 19 44 62 1991 448 377 825 2008 3,274 2,853 6,127 1975 23 1976 28 48 70 1992 532 437 969 2009 3,860 3,871 7,731 57 85 1993 617 519 1,135 2010 4,653 4,357 9,010 1977 34 63 97 1994 716 624 1,340 2011 6,014 4,756 10,771 1978 41 71 112 1995 809 688 1,497 2012 7,638 5,059 12,697 1979 52 77 130 1996 920 784 1,704 2013 9,520 4,771 14,292 1980 60 86 146 1997 1,056 939 1,995 2014 10,907 5,085 15,991 1981 58 87 145 1998 1,199 1,193 2,392 2015 12,193 5,188 17,380 1982 81 107 189 1999 1,389 1,557 2,946 2016 13,626 6,051 19,677 1983 104 123 227 2000 1,645 1,527 3,172 2017 14,849 6,559 21,409 1984 125 132 257 2001 1,799 1,885 3,684 2018 16,416 8,537 24,953 1985 153 156 309 2002 1,775 1,862 3,636 2019 20,732 11,976 32,708 1986 203 187 390 2003 1,895 1,800 3,694 2020 23,283 13,116 36,399 1987 248 209 458 2004 2,028 1,839 3,866 Mar-21 25,552 12,454 38,006 Public Debt Year Domestic Debt External Debt (Rs in billion) 290 233 Public Debt External Debt Public Debt Fig-9.1: Trend in Domestic and External Debt (Rs in billion) Domestic Debt External Debt 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mar (2021) 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 In order to provide investment opportunities to oversees Pakistanis, Government of Pakistan introduced the Naya Pakistan Certificates Rules, 2020. The investors can invest 181
216. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 digitally in Naya Pakistan Certificates (NPCs) through their Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA). The key highlights of the NPCs are presented in below box: Box-II: Naya Pakistan Certificates Naya Pakistan Certificates is a fixed income security issued by the Government of Pakistan under Public Debt Act, 1944 and NPC Rules 2020. Eligible Investors Following investors, either individually or jointly, are eligible to invest in NPCs through Roshan Digital Accounts, provided that their assets abroad have been duly declared in their latest tax returns filed with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR):  Pakistanis having National Identity Card for Overseas Pakistanis (NICOP).  Foreigners having Pakistan Origin Card (POC).  Members of Overseas Pakistanis Foundation.  An employee or official of Federal or a Provincial Government posted abroad. Form The certificates are issued in scrip-less form. Types The NPCs are issued both is Shariah compliant and conventional structures. Tenor The certificates are issued for 3-Month, 6-Month, 12-Month, 3-year and 5-year tenor. Currency The certificates are issued in PKR, USD, EURO and GBP. Deduction of Tax The returns on NPCs are subject to 10% withholding tax as per existing provisions of Income Tax Ordinance 2001. There shall however, be no tax applicable on the principal amount. Applicability of Zakat The NPCs are exempt from zakat deduction. Premature Encashment Premature encashment is allowed, provided that rate of return shall be calculated as per rate of return of the nearest shorter tenor of the certificate. No profit shall be paid in case of encashment before completion of three months. Pledging The NPCs are pledgeable as security for raising financing in Pakistan subject to such conditions as may be prescribed by SBP. Rate of Return Tenor-wise, currency wise rate of return on both shariah compliant and conventional structure certificates are as under: Tenor 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month 3-Year 5-Year 182 USD 5.50 6.00 6.50 6.75 7.00 Rate of return (%) GBP EUR 5.25 4.75 5.50 5.00 5.75 5.25 6.25 5.50 6.50 5.75 PKR 9.50 10.00 10.50 10.75 11.00
217. Public Debt Minimum and Maximum Limit of Investment Limits Currency USD GBP EUR Minimum limit USD 5 ,000 GBP 5,000 EUR 5,000 and integral and integral and integral multiples of multiples of multiples of USD 1,000 GBP 1,000 EUR 1,000 Maximum limit No Limit No Limit No Limit PKR PKR 100,000 and integral multiples of PKR 10,000 No Limit Source: State Bank of Pakistan 9.3 Progress on Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (2019/20 - 2022/23) Government remained within the benchmarks and thresholds defined in the MediumTerm Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)1 at end December 2020 as depicted in the table below: Table-9.3: Key Risk Indicators Risk Exposure Currency Risk Refinancing Risk Indicators Share of External Debt in Total Public Debt Average Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt (Years) Average Time to Maturity of External Debt (Years) Amortization of Total Public Debt within 1 year (% of GDP) Share of Shariah Compliant Instruments in Government Securities (%) Share of Fixed Rate Debt in Government Securities (%) End Dec-20 35.1 4.1 7.0 21.4 3.8 32.4 Source: Debt Policy Coordination Office Staff Calculations, Ministry of Finance 9.4 Dynamics of Public Debt Burden The analysis of various solvency and liquidity indicators provides clear insight into debt sustainability of the country. Table 9.4: Selected Public Debt Indicators (in percentage) 2012-13 2017-18 2018-19 Primary Balance / GDP (3.6) (2.1) (3.5) Fiscal Balance / GDP (8.2) (6.5) (9.0) Total Public Debt / GDP 63.8 72.1 85.9 Total Debt of the Government / GDP 60.1 66.5 77.5 Interest Service / Revenue 33.2 28.7 42.7 Source: Debt Policy Coordination Office Staff Calculations, Ministry of Finance 2019-20 (1.7) (8.1) 87.6 80.0 41.8 Aggressive expenditure management along with impressive growth in revenues yielded a visible improvement in the fiscal position in the first eight months of 2019-20. These improvements, however, were challenged by the outbreak of COVID-19 during the last four months of the year. Nevertheless, earlier gains had created enough fiscal space to deal with COVID-19 shock and kept the full year budget deficit lower than the last fiscal year i.e. the government registered a primary deficit of 1.7 percent and an overall deficit 1 https://www.finance.gov.pk/publications/MTDS_FY20_FY23.pdf 183
218. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 of 8 .1 percent of GDP during 2019-20 compared with 3.5 percent and 9.0 percent of GDP respectively, during last fiscal year. The fiscal performance during 2019-20 can be mainly evaluated through analysis of developments in revenue and current expenditures as highlighted below:  Total revenues grew by 28 percent during 2019-20 compared with the last fiscal year. This improvement was mainly due to multiple policy measures targeted to enhance FBR’s tax collections while non-tax revenue collections posted a substantial increase on account of higher SBP profits and GSM license renewal fees; and  Current expenditures grew by around 20 percent during 2019-20 mainly due to higher interest payments on debts and additional spending on COVID related expenditures. Government announced a fiscal stimulus package of Rs 1.2 trillion amid COVID-19. The purpose of the package was to provide relief to small businesses and economically vulnerable low-income groups whose livelihood was badly affected by the pandemic-related lockdown. Therefore, significant spending was recorded towards health care, social transfers and grants after the pandemic during last four months of 2019-20. Resultantly, the expenditure-control measures taken by the government prior to pandemic could not be fully implemented due to additional spending requirements following the pandemic outbreak. Despite additional expenses carried out due to ongoing pandemic, further improvement in fiscal position was witnessed during first nine months of current fiscal year. Fiscal deficit was recorded at 3.5 percent of GDP, as compared to 4.1 percent during same period of last year. In particular, the primary surplus of 0.9 percent of GDP was recorded compared with the primary surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP recorded during the same period last year. This improvement is primarily attributable to significant increase in revenue collection that outpaced the expenditure growth. While the increase in revenues emanated from both tax and non-tax segments, the overall expenditures rose mainly on the back of higher interest payments and development expenditures. It is important to highlight that Pakistan has witnessed one of the smallest increases in its public debt during pandemic. Global public debt to GDP Ratio increased by 13 percentage points, from 84 percent in 2019 to 97 percent in 2020, whereas, Pakistan’s Debt-to-GDP ratio witnessed minimal increase of 1.7 percentage points and stood at 87.6 percent at end June 2020 compared with 85.9 percent at end June 2019. Table-9.5: Debt-to-GDP Ratio (In Percentage) – International Comparison (Pre & Post COVID) Pre-COVID (2019) Post-COVID (2020) Increase Pakistan 85.9 87.6 1.7 Bangladesh 35.7 38.9 3.2 India 73.9 89.6 15.7 Sri Lanka 86.8 100.1 13.3 Global 84.3 97.3 13.0 Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, 2021 The Debt-to-GDP ratio of Pakistan is expected to reduce and will remain below 84 percent at the end of current fiscal year. The historical path of Debt-to-GDP ratio is depicted through following graph: 184
219. Public Debt Fig-9 .2: Profile of Total Public Debt (LHS: Rs in billion, RHS: Percent of GDP) 40,000 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Domestic Debt 2015-16 2016-17 External Debt 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total Public Debt to GDP 9.5 Servicing of Public Debt Interest servicing was recorded at Rs 2,104 billion during first nine months of current fiscal year against its annual budgeted estimate of Rs 2,946 billion. Domestic interest payments were recorded at Rs 1,934 billion and constituted around 92 percent of total interest servicing during first nine months of current fiscal which is mainly attributable to higher volume of domestic debt in total public debt portfolio. Table-9.6: Public Debt Servicing Servicing of Domestic Debt Servicing of External Debt Total Interest Servicing (Rs in billion) Budgeted (2020-21) 2,631 2020-21* Percent of Revenue 1,934 38.7 Actual Percent of Current Expenditure 31.8 315 170 3.4 2.8 2,946 2,104 42.1 34.6 *: July-March Source: Budget Wing and Debt Policy Coordination Office Staff Calculations, Ministry of Finance On a full year basis (2020-21), interest servicing is expected to remain below the budgeted estimates primarily due to extension of DSSI from January to June 2021, appreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar and lower interest servicing on account of National Savings Schemes due to withdrawals against discontinued prize bonds. 9.6 Domestic Debt Domestic debt comprises three main categories (i) permanent debt (medium and longterm); (ii) floating debt (short-term); and (iii) unfunded debt (primarily made up of various instruments available under National Savings Schemes). In-line with the Public Debt Act 1944, government issues three broad types of marketable securities in order to raise debt i.e. Treasury Bills (T-bills), Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) and Government Ijara Sukuk (GIS). 185
220. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  T-bills are considered short-term securities and have maturities of 12-Month or less at the time of issuance.  PIBs are considered longer-term securities and have maturities of more than 12Month at the time of issuance. PIBs pay the entire face value on maturity and also pay profits at regular intervals until maturity. PIBs can be further categorized as Fixedrate PIBs and Floating-rate PIBs.  - Fixed-rate PIBs pay a fixed amount of profit on each profit payment date. - Floating-rate PIBs pay a variable amount of profit on each profit payment date. The profit rate is determined by adding a spread to an underlying reference rate such as 3- or 6- Month T-bills yield. Shariah compliant government securities program has also been in place since 200809, however, it still constitutes a small proportion of government domestic securities portfolio. Government is aiming to increase the share of Shariah compliant securities to 10 percent in total government securities by end June 2023 compared with 2 percent at end June 2020. Following table illustrates the details and auction mechanism of government securities: Table-9.7: Details of Domestic Market Debt Instruments Instrument Tenor Coupon Payment Coupon Reset T-bills 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month PIBs (Fixed) 3-Year Semi-Annual 5-Year Semi-Annual 10-Year Semi-Annual 15-Year Semi-Annual 20-Year Semi-Annual 30-Year Semi-Annual PIBs (Floating) 2-Year Quarterly Fortnightly 3-Year Quarterly Quarterly 5-Year Quarterly Quarterly 10-Year Quarterly Quarterly 3-Year Semi-Annual Semi-Annual 5-Year Semi-Annual Semi-Annual 10-Year Semi-Annual Semi-Annual GIS 5-Year (FRR) Semi-Annual Semi-Annual 5-Year (VRR) Semi-Annual Semi-Annual FRR: Fixed Rental Rate; VRR: Variable Rental Rate Source: Debt Policy Coordination Office, Ministry of Finance  Auction Mechanism Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Multiple Price Single Price Single Price Within the retail debt market, multiple schemes are being offered under National Savings Schemes (NSS) having the investment horizon of 3-Month to 10-Year. 9.6.1 Domestic Borrowing Operations Domestic debt was recorded at Rs 25,552 billion at end March 2021, registering an increase of Rs 2,270 billion during first nine months of current fiscal year. Following are the highlights of domestic borrowing operations during ongoing fiscal year: 186
221. Public Debt  Domestic borrowing was made entirely from the financial markets;  Over 80 percent of the net borrowing from domestic sources was through mediumto-long-term domestic debt instruments;  An amount of Rs 569 billion was repaid to SBP;  Various new instruments were introduced to further develop the government securities market, attract more diversified investor base and to provide more flexibility to the investors as well as to the government; - Government started issuance of 5-Year Sukuk with fixed rate rental payments from July 2020; - Similar to conventional bond, government introduced re-opening mechanism in Sukuk auctions in July 2020 to increase its liquidity; - Government started issuance of 3, 5 and 10-year floating rate PIBs with quarterly coupon payment frequency from October 2020; and - Government introduced 2-year floating rate PIBs in November 2020 with quarterly coupon payment frequency and fortnightly interest rate re-setting.  With effect from 1st July 2020, all institutional investors have been barred from investing in National Saving Schemes (NSS) with the objective to deepen the financial markets and lower the Government’s long-term borrowing costs by creating more competition for long-term government debt;  The Rs 25,000, Rs 15,000 and Rs 7,500 denominations prize bonds were withdrawn from circulation in order to improve the documentation of the economy. 9.6.2 Domestic borrowing pattern Government securities remained the preferred choice of borrowing within domestic debt. Healthy participation was witnessed in the auction of government securities as depicted in the following graphs: Fig-9.3: Quarter Wise Auction Profile of Treasury Bills (2020-21) (Rs in billion) 8,000 Target Participation Acceptance Maturity 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Target 1,800 2,750 4,025 Participation 5,143 4,910 6,888 Acceptance 1,981 3,188 4,712 Maturity 2,469 3,279 3,751 187
222. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Fig-9 .4: Quarter Wise Auction Profile of Fixed Rate PIBs (2020-21) (Rs in billion) 600 Target Participation Acceptance Maturity 400 200 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Target 420 390 325 Participation 475 184 404 Acceptance 258 44 167 Maturity 101 - - Fig-9.5: Quarter Wise Auction Profile of Floating Rate PIBs (2020-21) (Rs in billion) 2,000 Target 1,500 Participation Acceptance Maturity 1,000 500 Target Participation Acceptance Maturity Q1 Q2 Q3 830 930 515 1,976 619 207 874 448 111 - - - Fig-9.6: Quarter Wise Auction Profile of Sukuks (2020-21) (Rs in billion) Target Participation Acceptance Maturity 300 200 100 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Target 150 150 50 Participation 265 314 98 Acceptance 162 201 75 - - - Maturity 188
223. Public Debt 9 .6.3 Component Wise Analysis of Domestic Debt This section highlights the developments in various components of domestic debt during first nine months of current fiscal year: I. Permanent Debt Permanent debt mainly comprises medium to long-term instruments such as PIBs, GIS and Prize Bonds. Permanent debt constituted 62 percent of domestic debt portfolio and recorded at Rs 15,882 billion at end March 2021, representing an increase of Rs 1,852 billion during first nine months of ongoing fiscal year. The bifurcation of this increase reveals that government net mobilization through issuance of PIBs and GIS was Rs 1,488 billion2 and Rs 439 billion respectively, whereas a net retirement amounting to Rs 74 billion was observed in Prize Bonds due to discontinuation of prize bonds of various denominations. II. Floating Debt Floating debt was recorded at Rs 6,000 billion or around 24 percent of total domestic debt portfolio at end March 2021. During first nine months of ongoing fiscal year, net mobilization through issuance of T-bills was Rs 421 billion3. The following graph shows tenor wise changes in the T-bills stock during first nine months of current fiscal year: Fig 9.7: Evolution of T-Bills Stock 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Mar/21 Feb/21 Jan/21 Dec/20 Nov/20 Oct/20 Sep/20 Aug/20 Jul/20 0% III. Unfunded Debt The stock of unfunded debt stood at Rs 3,652 billion at end March 2021, constituted around 14 percent of total domestic debt portfolio. Unfunded debt recorded net reduction of Rs 22 billion during first nine months of current fiscal year. The following 2 3 excluding PIBs held by non-residents amounting to Rs 53 billion, which are recorded as external public debt. excluding T-bills held by non-residents amounting to Rs 58 billion which are recorded as external public debt. 189
224. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 graph summarizes the source wise break-up of domestic debt stock : Fig-9.8: Source Wise Profile of Domestic Debt Permanent Debt Floating Debt Unfunded Debt 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Table-9.8: Outstanding Domestic Debt Jun-13 Jun-18 Jun-19 Permanent Debt 2,179.0 4,659.2 12,087.0 Market Loans 2.8 2.8 2.8 Government Bonds 1.3 1.3 1.3 Prize Bonds 389.6 851.0 893.9 Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates 0.1 0.1 0.1 Bearer National Fund Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 Federal Investment Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 Foreign Currency Bearer Certificates 0.0 0.0 0.1 U.S. Dollar Bearer Certificates 0.1 0.1 0.1 Special U.S. Dollar Bonds 4.3 5.1 6.7 Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs)* 1,321.6 3,413.3 10,933.2 GOP Ijara Sukuk 459.2 385.4 71.0 Bai-Muajjal of Sukuk 177.8 Floating Debt 5,194.9 8,889.0 5,500.6 Market Treasury Bills* 2,919.7 5,294.8 4,930.5 MTBs for Replenishment 2,275.2 3,594.2 570.2 Bai Muajjal 0.0 0.0 Unfunded Debt 2,146.5 2,868.1 3,144.1 Defence Saving Certificates 271.7 336.2 393.4 National Deposit Certificates 0.0 0.0 0.0 Khass Deposit Certificates 0.3 0.2 0.2 Special Savings Certificates (Registered) 388.2 381.9 413.7 Special Savings Certificates (Bearer) 0.3 0.3 0.3 Regular Income Certificates 262.6 347.5 489.6 Premium Saving Certificates 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bahbood Savings Certificates 528.4 794.9 914.5 Short Term Savings Certificates 4.0 4.3 5.1 Khass Deposit Accounts 0.3 0.3 0.3 Savings Accounts 22.3 38.3 38.2 Special Savings Accounts 346.2 549.0 416.6 Mahana Amdani Accounts 2.0 1.7 1.6 Pensioners' Benefit Account 179.9 274.9 318.3 Shuhadas Family Welfare Account 0.0 National Savings Bonds 0.2 0.1 0.1 Postal Life Insurance Schemes 67.1 46.7 47.9 GP Fund 73.1 91.7 104.3 Naya Pakistan Certificate Total Domestic Debt 9,520.4 16,416.3 20,731.8 *Government Securities held by non-residents are deducted from PIB's and T-bills. Source: State Bank of Pakistan 190 2019-20 End Mar 2021 (Rs in billion) Jun-20 14,030.7 2.8 1.3 734.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9 12,886.0 198.2 201.0 5,578.3 5,575.5 2.8 3,673.6 486.2 0.0 0.2 427.7 0.3 572.9 0.0 997.8 24.3 0.3 42.7 617.3 1.5 352.2 0.1 48.5 101.5 23,282.5 Mar-21 15,882.4 2.8 1.3 659.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3 14,374.5 636.3 201.0 6,000.0 5,996.8 3.2 3,651.6 478.9 0.0 0.2 432.6 0.3 589.1 0.0 998.3 5.3 0.3 41.9 600.2 1.5 363.4 0.1 47.9 91.7 18.2 25,552.2
225. Public Debt 9 .6.4 Secondary Market Activities in the Marketable Government Securities The liquidity in the secondary market of government securities improved further during 2020-21. During first nine months, outright trading volumes witnessed considerable increase on the back of healthy primary issuances of T-Bills, PIBs and GIS. The outright trade amounted to Rs 32 trillion, compared with Rs 28 trillion recorded during the same period of preceding year. This translates into average daily trade volume of Rs 171 billion during July 2020 - March 2021, compared with Rs 150 billion during the same period last year. Table-9.9: Secondary Market Outright Trading Volume (Rs in billion) Security 2019 2020 2020 (Q1-Q3) 3 Month T-Bills 23,330 14,260 12,452 6 Month T-Bills 41 3,660 2,314 12 Month T-Bills 33 6,914 4,741 Sub Total (A) 23,404 24,835 19,507 2 Year PIBs 3 Year PIBs 1,596 3,024 2,713 5 Year PIBs 889 1,430 973 10 Year PIBs 1,017 1,910 1,266 15 Year PIBs 0.6 15 0.1 20 Year PIBs 0.9 17 9 Sub Total (B) 3,503 6,396 4,961 GIS (C) 2,202 4,817 3,635 Grand Total (A+B+C) 29,109 36,047 28,103 Daily Average volume 117.8 146.5 150.3 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 2021 (Q1-Q3) 8,305 5,389 5,129 18,823 28 7,122 2,221 1,479 25 32 10,908 2,469 32,199 171.3 Increased outright volumes is mainly attributed to higher outright volumes in 3 and 5year fixed and floating-rate PIBs and 6-month T-Bills. On the other hand, outright trade in 3-month T-bills decreased by about one-third to Rs 8.3 trillion. Further, trade in GIS also witnessed a considerable dip during first nine months of 2020-21, despite significant primary issuance till January 2021. GIS worth Rs 2.5 trillion were traded during the period under consideration, compared to Rs 3.6 trillion during same period last year. The drop in GIS trade may be attributed to: Fig-9.9: Outright Market Turnover Volumes Buy-and-hold behaviour of the Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs) due to uncertainty regarding regular future GIS issuances;  No issuance since January 2021; and  Removal of holding limits for GIS that allowed individual banks to hold more securities depending upon their book-size and requirements. T-Bills Outright volumes (PKR Trillion)  PIBs Sukuk 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 191
226. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 9 .6.5 Repo Market and Secondary Market Yield During first nine months of current fiscal year, repo trades worth Rs 24 trillion were undertaken, a decline of 13 percent compared to similar period of last year. Banks mainly rely on repo market to meet their whole-sale short-term liquidity needs and a drop in repo trade indicates that the banks had sufficient liquidity to meet their daily funding needs (with relatively lower access to the repo market), which may be attributed to lower economic and banking activity in the midst of pandemic. Evidently, 74 percent of total repo volumes were in the overnight tenor. While 1- and 2-week tenor deals accounted for 12 percent and 10 percent of the total volumes, respectively. Cumulative volume of secondary market activities remained almost unchanged. However, repo volumes decreased 13 percent and outright volumes increased 14 percent during first nine months of current fiscal year compared with the same period last year. Table-9.10: Government Security Based Transactions Type Repo Outright Total Volume (Rs in billion) 2019 2020 2020 2021 (Q1-Q3) (Q1-Q3) 35,879 35,182 27,221 23,743 29,109 31,483 28,103 32,119 64,988 66,665 55,324 55,862 Market Share (Percentage) 2019 2020 2020 2021 (Q1-Q3) (Q1-Q3) 55 53 49 43 45 47 51 57 100 100 100 100 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 9.7 External Public Debt External public debt was recorded at US$ 81.6 billion at end March 2021 increasing by around US$ 3.6 billion during first nine months of current fiscal year. This increase reveals the following:  Debt from multilateral and bilateral sources increased by US$ 2.2 billion. This amount also includes US$ 0.5 billion received from the IMF under Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Overall, loans from multilateral and bilateral loans are mostly contracted on concessional terms (low cost and longer tenor);  The stock of commercial loans registered increased by US$ 1.0 billion. Fresh loans from middle eastern commercial banks primarily contributed towards this increase;  The stock of Pakistan Banao Certificates and Naya Pakistan Certificates cumulatively registered an increase of US$ 0.4 billion; Pakistan’s external public debt is derived from four key sources, with around 49 percent coming from multilateral loans, 31 percent from bilateral loans, 13 percent from commercial loans4 and 7 percent from Eurobonds/Sukuk. The following graph summarizes the component wise break-up of external public debt stock: 4 Including non-resident investments in domestic government securities, Naya Pakistan Certificates and Pakistan Banao Certificates. 192
227. Public Debt Fig-9 .10: Source Wise Profile of External Public Debt 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Multilateral Table-9.11: External Public Debt (US$ in million) A. External Public Debt (1+2) 1. Government External Debt (i+ii) i) Long term (>1 year) Paris Club Multilateral Other Bilateral Euro/Sukuk Global Bonds Military Debt Commercial Loans/Credits Local Currency Securities (PIBs) Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) NBP/BOC deposits/PBC* Naya Pakistan Certificate* ii) Short term (<1 year) Multilateral Local Currency Securities (T-bills) Commercial Loans/Credits 2. From IMF i) Federal Government ii) Central Bank 2015-16 Bilateral 2016-17 2017-18 Eurobonds/Sukuk Jun-13 48,139 43,752 43,488 13,548 24,198 3,939 1,550 71 2 180 264 256 8 4,387 1,519 2,868 Jun-18 70,237 64,142 62,525 11,643 28,102 8,674 7,300 6,806 1,617 961 0 655 6,095 6,095 2018-19 2019-20 End Mar 2021 Commercial Loans Jun-19 73,449 67,800 66,536 11,235 27,788 12,717 6,300 8,470 26 1,264 778 0 486 5,648 5,648 Jun-20 77,994 70,314 68,773 10,924 30,898 13,428 5,300 8,068 96 59 1,542 814 586 141 7,680 2,833 4,847 Mar-21 81,606 73,972 73,139 10,438 32,721 14,722 5,300 9,161 348 68 382 833 451 382 7,634 3,415 4,219 *: Naya Pakistan Certificate and Pakistan Banao Certificates (PBC) are issued by Government of Pakistan for overseas Pakistanis. Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, State Bank of Pakistan and Debt Policy Coordination Office, Ministry of Finance 9.7.1 External Public Debt Inflows and Outflows (a) Inflows Gross external loan disbursements were recorded at US$ 7,724 million5 during first nine months of 2020-21, the details of which are as follows:  5 Disbursements from multilateral sources amounted US$ 3,397 million and accounted for 44 percent of the total disbursements. The main contributors were Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank and the IMF. The disbursements from the IMF were part of ongoing EFF program while inflows from ADB and World Bank Excluding disbursement from Pakistan Banao Certificates, NPCs and non-resident investment in government securities. 193
228. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 were targeted towards energy , finance and infrastructure development and to address the pandemic repercussions;  Bilateral sources contributed US$ 1,207 million or 16 percent in total disbursements. Out of this, SAFE Deposits from China amounted to US$ 1,000 million; and  Commercial loans contributed US$ 3,120 million or 40 percent in total disbursements. These commercial loans were mostly obtained to refinance the existing maturities while incremental flows were for balance of payments support. (b) Outflows External public debt repayments were recorded at US$ 5,147 million during first nine months of current fiscal year compared with US$ 5,537 million during the same period last year. This reduction in repayments is primarily due to DSSI initiative and no repayment of Eurobonds/Sukuks during the current fiscal year. Interest payments were recorded at US$ 1,080 million during first nine months of current fiscal year as compared to US$ 1,580 million during same period of preceding year. The factors which reduced the external interest servicing during the ongoing fiscal year were (i) significant reduction in global interest rates due to the pandemic which led to lower interest payments on floating rate external debt; and (ii) interest servicing deferment under DSSI. The source wise details of external public debt inflows and outflows over last few years are depicted in the table below: Table-9.12: Source Wise External Public Debt Inflows and Outflows (US$ in million) 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Multilateral Bilateral Bonds Commercial / Other Total Inflows (A) 5,435 867 1,000 150 7,452 Multilateral Bilateral Bonds Commercial / Other Total Repayments (B) 2,407 407 686 3,500 Net Inflows (A-B) 3,952 Multilateral Bilateral Bonds Commercial / Other Total Interest Payments (C) Total Debt Servicing (B+C) 258 385 300 32 975 4,475 DISBURSEMENTS 5,766 3166 1,040 1,941 500 1,000 1,387 4,426 8,693 10,533 REPAYMENTS 1274 1255 440 1,200 500 750 1000 1922 3,213 5,127 5,480 5,406 INTEREST PAYMENTS 290 381 380 441 354 366 102 124 1,127 1,313 4,340 6,440 2018-19 2019-20 Jul 20 Mar 21 2813 1,971 2,500 3,716 11,000 2021 4,377 4,098 10,496 8,329 1,398 3,347 13,074 3397 1,207 3,120 7,724 1403 793 1995 4,190 1750 970 1,000 3634 7,355 2199 783 1,000 5061 9,043 1994 90 3063 5,147 6,809 3,140 4,031 2,577 485 444 423 332 1,684 5,874 584 541 503 475 2,103 9,458 637 484 396 515 2,032 11,075 449 106 213 312 1,080 6,227 Note: Above data excludes disbursements from Naya Pakistan Certificate, Pakistan Banao Certificates and non-resident investment in Government domestic securities Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs and State Bank of Pakistan 194
229. Public Debt 9 .7.2 Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations External loans are contracted in various currencies; however, disbursements are effectively converted into Pak Rupee. Since Pak Rupee is not an internationally traded currency, other international currencies are bought and sold via selling and buying of US Dollar. Hence, the currency exposure of foreign debt originates from two sources: US Dollar/other foreign currencies and Pak Rupee/US Dollar. Thus, any movement in international currencies (in which debt is contracted) and PKR vis-à-vis US Dollar can change the dollar and Pak Rupee value of external debt respectively. While it must be taken into account that domestic debt does not carry currency risk since it is denominated in Pak Rupee. In addition to net external inflows, following factors influenced the movement in external public debt stock during first nine months of current fiscal year:  In US Dollar terms, revaluation loss owing to depreciation of US Dollar against other international currencies increased the external public debt stock by around US$ 1.1 billion. This increase was mainly driven by depreciation of US Dollar against Chinese Yuan by 8 percent, Euro by 5 percent and Special Drawing Right (SDR) by 3 percent;  The above-mentioned translational loss on account of depreciation of US Dollar against other international currencies was more than offset by the appreciation of Pak Rupee against US Dollar by 9 percent which led to reduce the Rupee value of external public debt. 9.7.3 External Debt Sustainability A country can achieve debt sustainability if it can meet its current and future debt service obligations in a timely manner without exceptional financial assistance. Table-9.13: External Public Debt Sustainability Indicators (In percent) Current Account Deficit/GDP ED/FEE (times) ED/FER (times) ED/GDP (Percentage) ED Servicing/FEE (Percentage) 2012-13 1.1 1.0 4.4 20.8 11.1 2017-18 6.1 1.3 4.3 22.3 10.8 2018-19 4.8 1.3 5.1 26.2 17.2 2019-20 1.7 1.4 4.1 29.7 20.4 FEE: Foreign Exchange Earnings; ED: External Public Debt; FER: Foreign Exchange Reserves Note: The above ratios are calculated based on US Dollar amounts. Source: Debt Policy Coordination Office, Ministry of Finance Misaligned economic policies of the past, including large fiscal deficits, loose monetary policy and defence of an overvalued exchange rate, fuelled consumption and short-term growth but steadily eroded macroeconomic buffers, increased external debt, inflated current account deficit and depleted international reserves. Current account deficit was recorded at historic high of US$ 19.2 billion during 2017-18. The external account improved significantly during the tenure of present government. In 2019-20, Current Account Deficit (CAD) stood at US$ 4.4 billion. The lower CAD significantly reduced the country’s need to arrange external financing. The external sector continues to strengthen and after remaining positive for all 10 months of ongoing 195
230. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 fiscal year , the cumulative current account balance was recorded at a surplus of US$ 0.8 billion during July 2020 - April 2021. This turnaround was supported by an improvement in the trade balance and surge in remittances. External public debt to foreign exchange reserves ratio improved and recorded at 4.1 times during 2019-20 compared with 5.1 times during last fiscal year, on the back of slowdown in fresh accumulation of debt and the rise in the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Growth in external public debt servicing mainly driven by repayments of Eurobonds and commercial loans which outpaced the growth in FEE and accordingly external public debt servicing to foreign exchange earnings ratio increased to 20.4 percent in 2019-20 compared with 17.2 percent in 2018-19. Pakistan’s external debt remains on sustainable path, which has also been endorsed by the IMF. With improved balance of payment situation, external debt sustainability is expected to improve further going forward. 9.7.4 Pakistan’s return to International Capital Markets Pakistan entered the international capital market in April 2021 after a gap of over three years by successfully raising US$ 2.5 billion through a multi-tranche transaction of 5-, 10- and 30-year Eurobonds. The transaction generated great interest as leading global investors from Asia, Middle East, Europe and the US participated in the global investor calls and the order book. It was the largest conventional bond issuance by Pakistan with high quality diversified order book of US$ 5.3 billion (2.1 times over subscription). This transaction also includes first ever benchmark size 30-year issuance by Pakistan. This is for the first time that Pakistan has adopted a program-based approach with registration of Global Medium-Term Note (GMTN) program. The program will allow Pakistan to tap the market at short notice. The Government intends to make full use of this program and become a regular issuer in the International Capital Markets. Currently, all of the Pakistan’s outstanding bonds are being traded at premium, representing international market’s high demand for these sovereign bonds as depicted in the table below: Table-9.14: Pakistan Sovereign Bonds - Secondary Trading Levels Ratings Size Tenor Maturity Bond Issue Date Date M S&P F (US$ Mn) Years Sukuk B3 B13-Oct-16 13-Oct-21 1,000 5 Sukuk B3 B05-Dec-17 05-Dec-22 1,000 5 Eurobond B3 BB30-Mar-06 31-Mar-36 300 30 Eurobond B3 BB15-Apr-14 15-Apr-24 1,000 10 Eurobond B3 B30-Sep-15 30-Sep-25 500 10 Eurobond B3 B05-Dec-17 05-Dec-27 1,500 10 Eurobond B3 B08-Apr-21 08-Apr-26 1,000 5 Eurobond B3 B08-Apr-21 08-Apr-31 1,000 10 Eurobond B3 B08-Apr-21 08-Apr-51 500 30 Source: Bloomberg, June 02, 2021 196 Coupon (%) 5.500 5.625 7.875 8.250 8.250 6.875 6.000 7.375 8.875 Yield (%) 2.425 3.532 7.453 4.669 5.275 5.989 5.381 6.699 8.179
231. Public Debt 9 .8 Conclusion Pakistan’s strategy to reduce its debt burden to a sustainable level includes commitment to run primary surpluses, maintain low and stable inflation, promote measures that support higher long-term economic growth and follow an exchange rate regime based on economic fundamentals. With narrower fiscal deficit, public debt is projected to enter a firm downward path while government’s efforts to improve maturity structure will enhance public debt sustainability. 197
232.                              
233. Chapter 10 Education Education being the fundamental human right , stands most important element in evolution of human progress and nation development. It develops capabilities to fight against injustice, violence, corruption and many other social evils. Sustainable socioeconomic development of a country depends on substantial investment in its human capital through education and skill development. Educated people work as an effective tool in accepting and adopting innovative ideas and means of productivity/technologies, ensuring the elimination of economic and social ailments. Further, as a dividend, it brings socio-economic progress as well as prosperity in the country. An educated and skilled nation is productive enough to accelerate economic growth through expanded vision, creativity and, innovations in the country. Regional Comparison of Education Indicators According to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report 2020, Pakistan is ranked 154th out of 189 countries with the Human Development Index (HDI) value of 0.557 (with 1 being the maximum value). The Table 10.1 below provides regional comparison of education related indicators: SDG 4.6 Sri Lanka Maldives Bhutan India Bangladesh Nepal Pakistan Afghanistan 91.7 97.7 66.6 74.4 73.9 67.9 60.0* 43.0 99.0 99.1 92.9 90.2 94.9 90.9 67.5 56.3 98.5 98.4 93.3 93.0 91.8 94.0 81.3 74.1 SDG 4.2 80.0 47.6 27.6 39.3 44.0 36.2 37.3 26.1 91 92 34 14 41 87 83 n/a SDG 4.1 100 97 100 113 116 142 94 104 100 n/a 90 75 73 80 43 55 Human Development Index (HDI) Rank Government Expenditure on Education (% of GDP) (2013-2018) Primary School Dropout rate (2008-2018) Tertiary Secondary Primary Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) 2014-19 Pre-Primary Population with some secondary education %ages 25 years & older (2015-19) Male (2008-18) Youth Literacy rate (%)age 15-24 years old Female (2008-18) Country Literacy rate adult %age 15 years and older (2008-18) Table 10.1: Education Indicators SDG 4.3 20 31 16 28 21 12 9 10 1.6 6.7 11.3 8.8 33.8 26.5 29.6 n/a 2.1 4.1 6.6 3.8 2.0 5.2 2.9 4.1 72 95 129 131 133 142 154 169 Source: Human Development Report, 2020 (UNDP) *: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) District Level Survey, 2019-20, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Note: GER is calculated by dividing the number of students enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age group which officially corresponds to the given level of education and multiply the result by 100.
234. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The Government Agenda Present government is committed to achieve Goal 4 of SDGs i .e. “Quality Education”, which stipulates equitable education, removal of discrimination, provision and upgradation of infrastructure, skill development for sustainable progress, universal literacy, numeracy and enhancement of professional capacity of teachers. As per Article 25-A of the Constitution of Pakistan “State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen years” therefore, the government is working on various initiatives to provide quality education to its citizens. A Single National Curriculum (SNC) has been designed with the vision of one system of education for all, in terms of curriculum, medium of instruction and a common platform of assessment, so that all children have a fair and equal opportunity to receive high quality education. SNC will be implemented in three phases, Phase I: Development of SNC and textbooks for Pre I-V classes in March 2021, Phase II: Development of SNC and textbooks for VI-VIII classes in March 2022 and Phase III: Development of SNC and textbooks for IX-XII classes in March 2023. Educational Institutions and Enrolment Data1 i) Pre-Primary Education Pre-Primary education is the basic component of Early Childhood Education (ECE). Prep classes are for children between 3 to 5 years of age. At national level, an increase of 1.1 percent in pre-primary enrolment (12.7 million) in 2018-19 over 2017-18 (12.6 million) has been observed and it is further estimated to increase by 6.1 percent to 13.5 million in 2019-20 (Table10.2). ii) Primary Education (Classes I-V) In 2018-19 there were a total of 182.7 thousand functional primary schools with 494.3 thousand corresponding teachers at national level. An increase of 2.9 percent in primary enrolment is witnessed as the total enrolled students increased to 23.6 million in 201819 against 22.9 million in 2017-18. However, it is further projected to increase by 4.3 percent to 24.6 million in 2019-20. iii) Middle Education (Classes VI-VIII) The total reported middle institutes were 47.3 thousand with 448.6 thousand employed teachers in the whole country during 2018-19. An increase of 3.7 percent in middle enrolment is observed. The total enrolled students increased to 7.6 million in 2018-19 against 7.4 million in 2017-18 and it is projected to increase by 3.9 percent, (from 7.6 million to 7.9 million) in 2019-20. 1According to Academy of Educational Planning & Management (AEPAM), the estimated data for enrolment, number of institutions and teachers for the year 2020-21 is not available; however, the said data will be available in July 2021 which will be incorporated in the Statistical Supplement of Pakistan Economic Survey, 2020-21. Therefore, the latest available data for the year 2018-19 and 2019-20 is considered for analysis. 200
235. Education iv ) Secondary / High School Education (Classes IX-X) During the academic year 2018-19, a total of 31.7 thousand secondary schools were functional, with 567.1 thousand teachers working in the whole country. An increase of 2.8 percent in secondary school enrolment is observed at the national level as the total enrolled students increased to 4.0 million in 2018-19 against 3.9 million in 2017-18. However, it is estimated to increase further by 6.2 percent, i.e., from 4.0 million to 4.2 million during 2019-20. v) Higher Secondary / Inter Colleges (Classes XI-XII) At national level, 5.9 thousand higher secondary schools / inter colleges with 128.1 thousand teachers were functional in 2018-19. The overall enrolment of students in higher secondary education witnessed an increase of 2.8 percent in 2018-19. The enrolment registered during 2018-19 was 1.73 million as compared to 1.69 million in 2017-18. For 2019-20, it is projected to increase to 1.80 million. vi) Technical & Vocational Education During 2018-19, 3.9 thousand technical and vocational institutes with 18.2 thousand teachers were functional at the national level. The enrolment was stagnant in 2018-19 at 0.43 million as compared to 2017-18. However, it is estimated to increase by 7.2 percent, i.e., from 0.43 million to 0.46 million in 2019-20. vii) Degree Colleges (Classes XIII-XIV) An enrolment of 0.59 million students is expected during 2019-20 in degree colleges against enrolment of 0.60 million in 2018-19. A total of 1,659 degree colleges with 41,233 teachers were functional during 2018-19. The slight decline in expected enrolment in 2019-20 might be due to preference of students to the professional and vocational courses. viii) Universities There are 211 universities with 60.3 thousand teachers in both public and private sectors functional in 2018-19. The overall enrolment of students in higher education institutes (universities) increased to 1.86 million in 2018-19 from 1.58 million in 201718. The enrolment is expected to increase by 2.5 percent to 1.91 million in 2019-20. Overall Assessment The overall education situation based on the key indicators, such as enrolments, number of institutes and teachers have shown improvement. The total number of enrolments during 2018-19 was recorded at 52.5 million as compared to 51.0 million during 201718, which shows an increase of 2.9 percent. It is estimated to increase to 55.0 million during 2019-20. The number of institutes recorded at 273.4 thousand during 2018-19 as compared to 262.0 thousand during 2017-18. However, the number of institutes is estimated to increase to 279.4 thousand in 2019-20. Similarly, there were 1.76 million teachers in 2018-19 as compared to 1.77 million last year. The number of teachers is estimated to increase to 1.80 million during 2019-20. 201
236. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Fig-10 .1: Enrolment at each level Primary 22500 Middle 175 Middle 20000 High 155 High 15000 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 115 95 75 55 35 15 -5 0 2017-18 2018-19 P Primary 135 (In thousand) (In thousand) 17500 Fig-10.2: Institution at each level 2019-20 E Fig-10.3: Teachers at each level 2017-18 Primary 700 2018-19 P Middle 2019-20 E High (In thousand) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2017-18 2018-19 P Table 10.2: Number of Mainstream Institutions, Enrolment and Teachers By Level 2019-20 E (Thousands) Teachers Institutions Enrolment Technical & PreHigher Degree Years Primary^ Middle High Vocational Universities Primary Sec./ Inter Colleges Institutes 2012-13 9284.3 18790.4 6188.0 2898.1 1400.0 641.5 302.2 1594.6 2013-14 9267.7 19441.1 6460.8 3109.0 1233.7 465.4 308.6 1594.6 2014-15 9589.2 19846.8 6582.2 3500.7 1665.5 510.6 319.9 1299.2 2015-16 9791.7 21550.6 6922.3 3652.5 1698.0 518.1 315.2 1355.6 2016-17 11436.6 21686.5 6996.0 3583.1 1594.9 537.4 344.8 1463.3 2017-18 12574.3 22931.3 7362.1 3861.3 1687.8 604.6 433.2 1575.8 2018-19* 12707.1 23588.0 7634.1 3969.0 1734.9 604.6 433.2 1862.8@ 2019-20** 13487.9 24591.7 7931.5 4213.5 1804.1 598.8 464.5 1910.0 2012-13 159.7 42.1 29.9 5.0 1.5 3.3 0.147 2013-14 157.9 42.9 30.6 5.2 1.1 3.3 0.161 2014-15 165.9 44.8 31.3 5.4 1.4 3.6 0.163 2015-16 164.6 45.7 31.7 5.5 1.4 3.7 0.163 2016-17 168.9 49.1 31.6 5.1 1.4 3.8 0.185 2017-18 172.5 46.7 31.4 5.8 1.7 3.7 0.186 2018-19* 182.7 47.3 31.7 5.9 1.7 3.9 0.211@ 2019-20** 187.1 48.3 32.0 6.1 1.7 4.0 0.224@ 2012-13 428.8 362.6 489.6 132.0 48.8 16.1 77.6 2013-14 420.1 364.8 500.5 124.3 26.0 16.4 77.6 2014-15 430.9 380.8 514.2 118.1 36.6 19.4 88.3 2015-16 444.6 394.2 529.5 123.1 37.1 18.2 83.4 2016-17 475.2 455.4 560.6 120.3 37.9 18.2 58.7 2017-18 522.4 448.1 563.3 123.2 41.2 18.2 56.9 2018-19* 494.3 448.6 567.1 128.1 41.2 18.2 60.3 2019-20** 506.8 466.4 582.0 127.4 40.2 18.6 58.0 *: Provisional, **: Estimated, ^: Including Pre-Primary, Mosque Schools, BECS and NCHD, @: Figures are based on HEC. Source: Ministry of Federal Education & Professional Training, AEPAM, Islamabad 202 Total 41099.1 41880.9 43314.1 45804.0 47642.6 51030.4 52533.7 55002.0 241.6 241.2 252.6 252.8 260.1 262.0 273.4 279.4 1555.5 1529.7 1588.3 1630.1 1726.3 1773.3 1757.8 1799.4
237. Education Literacy According to the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) district level Survey 2019-20, the literacy rate of population (10 years and above) is stagnant at 60 percent in 2019-20 since 2014-15. The literacy rate is higher in urban areas (74 percent) than in rural areas (52 percent). Province wise analysis suggests that Punjab has the highest literacy rate, with 64 percent followed by Sindh with 58 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas) with 55 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Including Merged Areas) with 53 percent and Balochistan with 46 percent (Table 10.3). Table 10.3: Literacy Rate (10 Years and Above)-Pakistan and Provinces Province/Area 2014-15 Male Female Total Male Pakistan 70 49 60 70 Rural 63 38 51 64 Urban 82 69 76 79 Punjab 71 55 63 72 Rural 65 45 55 67 Urban 82 73 77 80 Sindh 70 49 60 68 Rural 55 24 40 53 Urban 82 70 76 79 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 71 (Including Merged Areas) Rural 69 Urban 80 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 71 35 53 72 (Excluding Merged Areas) Rural 69 31 50 70 Urban 80 52 66 81 Balochistan 61 25 44 61 Rural 54 17 38 55 Urban 78 42 61 76 (percent) 2019-20 Female 50 39 67 57 48 72 47 23 66 35 Total 60 52 74 64 57 76 58 39 73 53 31 53 37 50 67 55 34 54 29 22 47 52 68 46 40 63 Note: Area of erstwhile FATA is now part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and covered first time. Therefore, values of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are given both with and without merged areas. However, the exact comparison of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the previous year is only possible by comparing Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, excluding merged areas. Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) District Level Survey, 2019-20, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Fig-10.4: Literacy Rates 80 70 60 50 72 70 Male 61 57 50 Female 72 71 68 47 35 40 37 29 30 20 10 0 Pakistan Punjab Sindh KPK (Including Merged Areas) KPK (Excluding Merged Areas) Balochistan 203
238. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Primary Enrolment Rates A . Gross Enrolment Rates (GER) GER at the primary level excluding Katchi (prep) for the age group 6-10 years at the national level during 2019-20 declined to 84 percent as compared to 91 percent in 201415. Province wise data suggests that GER is declined in all provinces i.e. Punjab witnessed declined from 91 percent in 2014-15 to 84 percent in 2019-20, Sindh from 79 percent to 71 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas) from 92 percent to 89 percent and Balochistan from 73 percent to 72 percent (Table 10.4). The decline in GER is mainly due to enrolment of over aged children is decreasing since 2012-13. Table 10.4: National and Provincial GER (Age 6 -10 years) at Primary Level (Classes1-5) (percent) Province/Area 2014-15 2019-20 Male Female Total Male Female Total Pakistan 98 82 91 89 78 84 Punjab 103 92 98 93 90 92 Sindh 88 69 79 78 62 71 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 96 73 85 (Including Merged Areas) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 103 80 92 98 79 89 (Excluding Merged Areas) Balochistan 89 54 73 84 56 72 Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) District Level Survey, 2019-20, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Fig-10.5: Gross Enrolment Rate Male Female 120 100 80 93 89 78 98 96 90 78 73 79 62 84 56 60 40 20 0 Pakistan Punjab Sindh Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Including Merged (Excluding Merged Areas) Areas) Balochistan B. Net Enrolment Rates (NER) NER at the national level during 2019-20 declined to 64 percent as compared to 67 percent in 2014-15. Province wise comparison reveals that, NER in Punjab and Balochistan remained stagnant at 70 percent and 56 percent respectively, while declined in NER has been observed in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas), where NER decreased from 61 percent to 55 percent and 71 percent to 66 percent respectively (Table 10.5). 204
239. Education The NER is either stagnant or decreasing due to the fact that 32 percent of children aged 5-16 years are currently out of school at national level . The percentage is highest in Balochistan with 47 percent followed by 44 percent in Sindh, 30 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas) and 24 percent in Punjab. Table 10.5: National and Provincial NER (Age 6 -10 years) at Primary Level (Classes1-5) (percent) Province/Area 2014-15 Female Male Total 2019-20 Female Male Total Pakistan 72 62 67 68 60 64 Punjab 73 67 70 71 89 70 Sindh 67 54 61 60 49 55 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Including Merged Areas) - - - 72 56 65 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas) 78 62 71 73 59 66 Balochistan 67 42 56 65 45 Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) District Level Survey, 2019-20, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. 56 Fig-10.6: Net Enrolment Rates 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Male Female 89 60 60 49 Pakistan Punjab 73 72 71 68 Sindh 56 59 65 45 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Including Merged (Excluding Merged Areas) Areas) Balochistan Expenditure on Education Cumulative education expenditures by federal and provincial governments in FY2020 stood at 1.5 percent of GDP as compared to 2.3 percent of GDP in FY2019.2 Expenditures on education had been rising gradually till 2018-19 (Fig-10.7), but in 2019-20 education-related expenditures witnessed a decrease of 29.6 percent i.e, from Rs 868.0 billion to Rs 611.0 billion. The education related expenditure details are given in Table 10.6 and Figure 10.7: 2 The education related expenditures witnessed a decline in FY2020 due to closure of educational institutes amid countrywide lockdown and decrease in current expenditures (other than salaries) due to COVID-19 Pandemic. Furthermore, as a result of COVID-19 crisis, there was an increase in expenditure of other Social Sectors i.e., health, natural calamities & other disasters, Benazir Income Support Programme, Pakistan Bait-ul-Maal etc. 205
240. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 2015-16 Table 10 .6: Expenditure on Education Current Years Expenditure 84,496 34,665 119,161 Punjab 224,608 26,863 251,471 Sindh 123,855 11,153 135,008 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 92,306 19,925 112,231 Balochistan 36,121 9,364 45,485 561,386 101,970 663,356 Federal 91,139 16,890 108,029 Punjab 221,049 39,593 260,642 Sindh 134,650 12,082 146,732 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 109,482 26,639 136,121 40,571 7,127 47,698 Pakistan 596,891 102,331 699,222 Federal 100,428 26,495 126,923 Punjab 295,893 44,910 340,803 Sindh 152,298 13,705 166,003 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 126,149 16,494 142,643 47,107 5,673 52,780 Pakistan Federal 721,875 103,787 107,277 21,780 829,152 125,567 Punjab 339,402 32,413 371,815 Sindh 153,492 9,110 162,602 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 132,516 20,195 152,711 49,298 6,029 55,327 778,495 89,527 868,022 Federal 83,266 31,300 114,566 Punjab 182,616 35,378 217,994 Sindh 2016-17 2017-18 Balochistan Balochistan 2018-19 Total Expenditure Federal Pakistan Balochistan Pakistan 2019-20 (P) Development Expenditure 165,028 5,427 170,455 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 28,161 18,088 46,249 Balochistan 53,640 8,111 61,751 512,711 98,304 611,015 Pakistan (Rs million) As % of GDP 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.5 P: Provisional Source: PRSP Budgetary Expenditures, External Finance Policy Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad Fig-10.7: Expenditure on Education 868.0 829.2 850 750 663.4 Rs. billion 611.0 599.0 650 537.6 550 479.9 450 393.5 322.8 350 250 699.2 162.1 240.4 259.5 08-09 09-10 187.7 150 50 06-07 07-08 10-11 11-12 12-13 Year 206 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 P
241. Education Development Programmes 2020-21 Federal Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2020-21 An amount of Rs 4.5 billion has been allocated in PSDP 2020-21 for 22 on-going and 6 new development projects of the Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training. While, an amount of Rs 1.2 billion has also been allocated for 6 on-going and new education related development projects sponsored by Finance, Defence, Housing & Works and Kashmir Affairs & Gilgit Baltistan Division. The implementation of PSDP funded education projects can have an enduring impact on socio-economic development of the country. Provincial Annual Development Programmes (ADPs) 2020-21 The provincial governments have prioritized areas of interventions in education sector such as provision of missing facilities, improvement of the physical infrastructure, establishment of IT/Science labs, up-gradation of girls and boys primary schools to middle, high and secondary levels, construction of new boys and girls schools and colleges, provision of scholarship through endowment funds and other scholarship schemes. Early Childhood Education (ECE) at Primary level and strengthening of Provincial Institutes of Teacher Education (PITE) and other areas of interventions. Education Foundations have been provided sufficient resources by the provinces. The development budget has also been allocated for capacity building of teachers to provide quality education and for the establishment of the cadet colleges to meet the prerequisites of education. Punjab During 2020-21, Government of Punjab has allocated an amount of Rs 34.6 billion for 110 on-going and 29 new development projects of education sector. Out of which Rs 27.6 billion has been allocated for school education, Rs 3.9 billion for higher education, Rs 0.6 billion for special education and Rs 2.5 billion for literacy and non-formal education.3 Sindh During 2020-21, the Sindh government has allocated Rs 23.4 billion for 399 on-going and 11 new development projects of education sector. Out of which an amount of Rs 15.5 billion has been allocated for School Education & Literacy, Rs 3.7 billion for college education, Rs 0.13 billion for Department of Empowerment of Persons with Disabilities, Rs 0.7 billion for Sindh TEVTA and Rs 3.4 billion for Universities & Boards. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa The government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has allocated Rs 30.1 billion in 2020-21 for 188 on-going and 61 new development projects. Out of which an amount of Rs 6.3 billion has been allocated for primary education, Rs 9.7 billion for secondary education and Rs 9.0 billion for higher education. This amount is 94 percent higher than the last year allocation4. 3 4 The allocated amount doesn’t include TVET sector allocation here. It does not include TVET sector allocation here. 207
242. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Balochistan The Balochistan government has allocated Rs 9 .1 billion for CFY2021 for 108 on-going and 176 new development projects. Out of the total allocation, an amount of Rs 1.1 billion has been allocated for primary education, Rs 0.7 billion for middle education, Rs 2.1 billion for secondary education, Rs 4.1 billion for college education, Rs 0.7 billion for university education, Rs 0.1 billion for general education and 0.3 billion for technical education. Technical and Vocational Education National Vocational & Technical Training Commission (NAVTTC) NAVTTC is an apex body at national level under the umbrella of Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training with the vision to regulate, facilitate and provide policy direction in Technical & Vocational Education and Training (TVET). Since its inception, NAVTTC has given a high priority to un-addressed areas and challenges being faced by TVET sector which are included under the core activities/programmes of professional training for human resource development (HRD) assigned to NAVTTC. Socio-economic progress of youth through skill development and infrastructure upgradation in HRD is also included in globally agreed 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). TVET imparts academic as well as technical hands-on knowledge and skills to youth to prepare them for decent employment and self-employment in the shortest possible time. Accordingly, this is the quickest and most effective method of youth empowerment and channelizing their energies for socio-economic development of the country. The CPEC project and other global emerging advancements are bringing technological innovations to Pakistan which require greater preparedness of youth in high-end and high-tech technologies. Realizing the emerging needs, a detailed market gap analyses has been conducted by NAVTTC, both for identifying the demand for such high-end trades and the available institutional capacity for conducting training courses in these trades. Box-I: Online Courses in the wake of COVID-19 Crisis To provide opportunity to Pakistani youth for best utilization of their time on closure of training institutes during COVID-19 pandemic, special online courses in advanced technology were designed by NAVTTC in accordance with National Vocational Qualification Framework (NVQF), which are at par with international certification. More than 12,000 applicants were enrolled in these courses. The scope of the courses is being further enhanced to additional courses as per job market demand. About 2,500 students are being skilled through these online courses. Apart from the above initiative of NAVTTC, skill training components have also been included in the government Ehsaas programme for the most marginalized segments of society, which is being pursued for the socio-economic betterment of youth and deprived segments of the society. Moreover, online teachers’ training has been started under which latest teaching techniques are disseminated methodologies is being provided to the teachers at their doorstep. In addition, development partners like United Nation High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) have joined hands with NAVTTC to equip the youth (Afghan refugees and Pakistani host citizens) in Pakistan 208
243. Education with technical hands-on skills . Under this initiative, NAVTTC in collaboration with UNHCR has equipped more than 3,500 youth with technical hands-on skill. Key Objectives behind NAVTTC’s Mission Key objectives behind the vision of NAVTTC is envisaging “Skills for Employability, Skills for All”, to make TVET sector in Pakistan responsive according to the need of both youth and industry. In this regard, reforms were introduced with the aim for achieving following key objectives: a) Improved Governance b) Enhanced Funding for TVET sector by exploring multiple sources, both public, private and through donor interventions c) Capacity Enhancement d) Quality Assurance and international recognition e) Ensuring Access & Equity f) Industry Ownership and Public Private Partnership (PPP) g) Skill Development for International Market h) Communication Plan for enhancing image of TVET sector in Pakistan NAVTTC’s Initiatives for Realization of Vision NAVTTC has taken numerous initiatives for implementation of National “Skills for All” Strategy, which is a comprehensive roadmap to uplift TVET sector in Pakistan. For this purpose, NAVTTC is formulating skill development programmes, funded by public & private sector and other international organizations i.e. ILO, British Council, JICA, TIKA, Korean HRD, Department of Foreign Assistance Ministry of Commerce, China etc. Prime Minister’s Skills for All – Hunarmand Pakistan Programme A wide-ranging skill development programme namely, “Prime Minister’s Skills for All – Hunarmand Pakistan Programme” under the umbrella of Kamyab Jawan has been formulated and is being implemented by NAVTTC. The programme targets 02 major categories of interventions including: i) Human resource development through youth skill development and ii) Upgradation of TVET infrastructure at par with standards of local and international job market. Initiatives for Enhancement of Quality of Training Following initiatives have been taken for the enhancement of quality of training: 1. Training in most demanded trades: Training is being provided in accordance with national and international job markets the most demanded trades especially in Construction and Hospitality sectors etc. Training programmes in Conventional, High-Tech / High-End, cutting edge technologies and industrial occupations have 209
244. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 been launched . More than 100,000 youth will be equipped with technical and vocational hands-on skills. 2. Inclusion of High-End Technologies: To cater the needs of the modern industry both nationally and internationally, with specific focus on the expected requirements for CPEC projects, NAVTTC is introducing Skill trainings in High-Tech / High-End and cutting edge technologies aligned with “Industrial Revolution 4.0” and the courses such as Mechatronics, Robotics, Industrial Automation, Internet of Things (IoT), Cloud Computing, Free Lancing are being introduced in state of the art Universities, Institutions and Industries. 3. Updated, Demand-Driven Curricula: Curricula of more than 100 trades have been completely updated and brought in accordance with demands of local and international job markets with technical assistance of development partners. 4. Quality Assurance through Accreditation Regime: For the first time in history of Pakistan, a comprehensive accreditation regime for TVET sector has been introduced. More than 400 TVET institutes and 1,500 training programmes have already been accredited under the programme. Strengthened Industrial Linkages One of the major reasons for non-performing TVET sector in Pakistan was the absence of strong industrial linkages. To overcome this deficiency, special emphasis has been laid on giving pivotal role to industry and private sector for TVET sector development in the country. For this purpose: a) Three Sector Skill Councils (SSCs) have been established in the Construction & Hospitality, Renewable Energy and Textile Sector. b) The concept of Institute Management Committees (IMCs) has been introduced for the first time in the country, which gives greater representation to private sector in the management and training delivery at the TVET institute level. c) Industry has been actively involved in all aspects of training such as curricula development, final assessments, on-job training and selection of institutes. Job Placement Centres (JPCs) For the first time, NAVTTC took the initiative for establishing Job Placement Centres (JPCs), with dedicated resources. The JPCs linking Pakistani skilled workforce with employers in both national and international job markets. In addition to this 104 Job Placement and Vocational Counseling Centers (JP&VCCs) have been established across the country for the benefit of youth. Skill profiles of more than 570,000 Pakistani youth are available on this job portal and NAVTTC is providing free of cost facility to both youth and Pakistani industry to bring them closer and realize the dual objective of employment for youth and quality skilled workforce for industry5. 5 http://jobplacement.gov.pk 210
245. Education Institutional Capacity and Infra-Structure Upgradations To upgrade the existing training facilities and bring Pakistan ’s TVET training at par with the international standards, seven (07) Centres of Excellence are being established across the country by NAVTTC for practicing best TVET models in Pakistan. In addition, laboratories and workshops of more than 70 TVET institutes have been upgraded with latest machinery and equipment. To build up soft institutional capacity of TVET sector in Pakistan, following initiatives have been undertaken;  Two Batches of Pakistani TVET trainers have been sent to China for latest IT related skills, in collaboration with Huawei. Additionally, some 800 training instructors were provided training in latest methodologies / techniques across the country.  NAVTTC has signed an MoU with Turkish Development Agency TIKA for establishing a state-of-the-art Centre of Excellence at Islamabad, with an estimated cost of more than Rs 900 million. Introducing Matric-Tech Pathways for Integrating TVET and Formal Education There is a complete disconnect between formal education and technical training in Pakistan. Resultantly, youth graduating from formal education system are handicapped in acquiring skills in accordance with demand of the labour market. To bridge this gap and to integrate TVET and formal education, Matric-Tech scheme is being launched on pilot basis in 15 selected schools of Islamabad, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir region covering 09 vocational trades. Under the scheme, students in Matriculation will be offered a third stream in the shape of Matric-Tech, where along with compulsory courses they will also be imparted hands-on technical skills in latest technologies. On completion of their Matric-Tech courses, students will have both the option open before them, either to enter the job market or to continue their further studies. Higher Education Commission (HEC) HEC plays a critical role in the production of human capital and the generation and transmission of knowledge, which is essential for achieving a high economic growth and a competitive position in the global knowledge economy. The new knowledge-based society and its economic growth are completely dependent on the generation of intellectual capital. This leads to dramatic rise in the demand for higher education. The youth are the biggest stakeholders in the process. Thus, there is a dire need to enable the higher education sector to lead the processes of learning management, delivery of services, innovation, creativity, research and commercialization for a synergistic way forward. In this regard, HEC has developed a “Vision 2025” which focuses on improving quality education, faculty development and maximizing the research and development opportunities in higher education sector. There are a total of 224 Higher Education Institutes operating in the country, public sector (137) and private sector (87) having total enrolment of 1.9 million approximately. The number of sub-campuses of these universities has also been expanded to 102 (Public Sector: 75 & Private Sector: 27). 211
246. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Quality of Higher Education HEC aims to enhance quality of education through strong coordination and collaboration amongst universities and accreditation & professional councils, improve education system through proper assessment and evaluation processes with the cooperation of the concerned councils. At present 1,800 programmes are accredited by the Accreditation Councils established by HEC. Quality Enhancement Cell (QEC): HEC ensures that all existing and new universities should have a QEC to observe the standards being set for curricula, faculty, examination, management and digital resources. Currently, 209 out of 224 universities have established their QECs. Human Resource Development Human Resource Development (HRD) Division of HEC is responsible for the provision of scholarships to talented candidates. Programmes are primarily designed to fill the gap of the trained people in various fields relevant to the emerging national needs and priorities. The HRD performance for the CFY2021 (July-March) is as under: Overseas Scholarships: A total number of 1,171 scholars proceeded abroad for their Ph.D. studies and 221 completed their studies. In addition, 378 scholars have been awarded a 6-month Ph.D. research fellowship abroad under International Research Support Initiative Programme (IRSIP) during the said period. Indigenous Scholarships: A total number of 3,267 indigenous scholarships were awarded for Under-Graduate, Post-Graduate and Ph.D. studies and 550 scholars completed their studies during 2020-21. Need-Based Scholarships: A total number of 1,835 needs-based scholarships were awarded under different need-based programmes, whereas 3,347 scholars completed their studies. It includes: i. HEC Needs-based scholarships ii. USAID-funded Merit & Needs-based Scholarship Programme iii. OGDCL Needs-based scholarship programme. The Ehsaas Undergraduate (UG) Scholarships: A total of 18,275 scholarships are approved for Ehsaas UG Scholarship Phase-II for FY2021. The selection process at 129 HEIs is underway which is expected to be completed during FY2021. Funds to 47,000 awardees of Ehsaas UG Scholarship Phase-I have been released. Research & Development HEC aims to motivate and facilitate the Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) to make research a top priority for a sustainable economic growth and future knowledge economy. By putting all efforts in tailoring programmes and formulating policies, it assures relevant research to address the significant societal issues as well as 212
247. Education internationally compatible research for sustainable and progressive research ecosystem in the county . HEC executes programmes and projects which ensure sustainable and progressive research culture. HEC focused on those research activities that have a direct impact on community wellbeing and economy of the country which includes; i. National Research Programme for Universities (NRPU); 105 projects have been awarded, while 265 projects completed during CFY2021. ii. Five (5) projects have been awarded under Grand Challenge Fund of Higher Education Development Programme (HEDP). iii. Seventeen (17) projects have been awarded under Technology Transfer Support Fund of HEDP. iv. Six (06) joint research grants have been awarded under Innovative & Collaborative Research Grant (ICRG) up to Max Rs 50 million for each partner by HEC & British Council. v. Under Technology Development Fund (TDF), Grants released to 64 research projects already awarded against various Calls. 29 products have been developed, 50 Commercialization agreements signed between industry & university. vi. 80 Travel Grants to attend conferences/Seminars abroad have been supported. vii. 35 cases under Library Support Programme were reimbursed to the Universities for purchase of books, Journals etc. viii. Research Publications: An IT based system termed “HEC Journals Recognition System” (HJRS) has been introduced under which more than 300 local and 28,000 international research journals across all the scientific fields have been recognized. ix. The policies of HEC’s flagship programmes, Office of Research Innovation and Commercialization (ORICs) and Establishment of Business Incubation Centres (BICs) were reviewed through National Committee on R&D and approved by the Commission for implementation by all public and private sector HEIs. x. Establishment of ORICs across the universities of Pakistan that will serve as a pivotal point to connect research activities and commercialization under one umbrella. So far, HEC has established 71 ORICs in different public and private sector HEIs. National Academy of Higher Education (NAHE) NAHE is a standalone, autonomous institution, operating initially under the auspices of HEC to improve the quality of teaching, research and academic governance in HEIs across Pakistan. NAHE has trained more than 1,500 HEI faculty members (mid and senior) in the areas i.e. teaching effectiveness, effective research and project management. Despite uncertainties and restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, NAHE steered successful collaborations in its first full year of activities. NAHE also conducted a series of 213
248. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 consultative and capacity building workshops , awareness sessions and top-up trainings engaging a total of 1,149 participants from HEIs during FY2021. NAHE will work to collate and establish regional hubs of excellence with institutional partners across Pakistan, develop research policy frameworks that could lead to excellence in teaching and learning for faculty, staff and higher education progress and provide support to HEIs. Planning & Development of Higher Education To achieve the goals / targets of higher education mainly with respect to low & inequitable participation in higher education, improved quality of teaching & research and increase in capacity building of faculty, the HEC every year prioritize the projects / programmes which are to be funded through PSDP. In FY2021, the government has allocated Rs 29.5 billion to HEC for implementation of 144 development projects (113 ongoing & 31 new approved projects) of Public Sector universities/HEIs. During July-March, FY2021 an amount of Rs 22.5 billion (76 percent of the total allocation) has been authorized to HEC for meeting expenditure against development projects. Annual Status of Education Report, 2021, Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Education in Pakistan Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), 2021, is the largest citizen-led householdbased learning survey mostly in all rural and selected urban areas. It is led by the Idarae-Taleemo-Aagahi (ITA) in collaboration with other stakeholders. After unprecedented periods of school closures in 2020 and early 2021, ASER conducted a research study with the aim to measure the impact of COVID-19 on Education in Pakistan. The survey sample comprised of 12 rural districts (4 in Punjab, 4 in Sindh & 4 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). The reporting includes a total of 7,176 households, 18,838 children aged 3-16 years and out of these, 16,058 children aged 5-16 years (41% girls and 59% boys) were assessed for language and arithmetic competencies from 345 government and 184 private schools. Box-II: Summary of Key Findings & Comparison between ASER 2019 and 2021. Enrolment (National Rural)  In 2019, 86% of 6-16-year-old children in these 12 rural districts were enrolled in schools (14% out-of-school children). Amongst the enrolled, 67% were in government schools and 33% were enrolled in non-state institutions (private schools & madrasa).  Pre-school enrolment (3-5 years) in 2019 recorded at 40%. 214  In 2021, 84% of 6-16-year-old children were enrolled in schools, while 16% were out-ofschool (6% are drop-outs). Among 6% who dropped out, 20% reported that they dropped out during COVID-19 due to financial hardships. Amongst the enrolled, 79% were enrolled in government institutes and 21% were enrolled in non-state institutions (private schools & madrasa).  Pre-school enrolment (3-5 years) in 2021 stood at 35%.
249. Education Conclusion : Enrolment has dropped slightly for age group 6 to 16, but more significantly for age-group 3 to 5. COVID-19 drove many households into financial hardships leading to an increase in dropouts. Moreover, a higher percentage of girls were found to be dropped out compared to boys. Quality of Learning (National Rural) In 2019,  Percentage of class 3 students able to read class 2 level story in Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto: 20  Percentage of class 5 students able to read class 2 level story in Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto: 58  Percentage of Class 3 students able to do 2-digit division: 22  Percentage of Class 5 students able to do 2-digit division: 47  Percentage of Class 3 students able to read Class 2 level English sentences: 23  Percentage of Class 5 students able to read Class 2 level English sentences: 49 In 2021,  Percentage of Class 3 students able to read Class 2 level story in Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto: 19  Percentage of Class 5 students able to read Class 2 level story in Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto: 56  Percentage of Class 3 students able to do 2digit division: 12  Percentage of Class 5 students able to do 2digit division: 44  Percentage of Class 3 students able to read Class 2 level English sentences: 23  Percentage of Class 5 students able to read Class 2 level English sentences: 48 Conclusion: Learning losses for children of class 3 are higher compared to children of class 5. Subjectwise losses are more severe for arithmetic. Learning and Teaching During the COVID-19 Pandemic  About 52% of the surveyed children were not able to give proper time (at least one hour a day) to their studies during schools’ closure periods.  Of those who were able to give time to their studies, one-third reported that they had faced difficulty while studying Mathematics, Science and English on their own.  About 50% students reported that they lacked confidence to study on their own during schools’ closure.  PTV’s Tele-School & Home Support: About 27% students reported that they took some learning support from PTV’s Tele-School programmes. Another 47% and 13% reported that they took family members’ and paid tuitions’ support/help to continue learning during COVID-19.  Technology Support: About 27% students reported that they relied on TV for learning, another 16% used smart phones for continuing their learning. Average reported number of hours that children had access to household technology (computer/laptop/smartphone) for learning was 1 hour. Conclusion: It is observable that government, school and family resources remained modest for children to continue learning during COVID-19; however, a beginning for innovative distance learning and home support has been made for almost 30% and 54% of the students, respectively. School Facilities In 2019,  Teacher attendance in government schools was 88% compared to 85% in private schools.  86% of the government schools had toilets, compared to 96% in private schools.  Drinking water facility was available in 86% and 98% in government and private schools respectively.  18% government and 20% private schools had a functional computer lab. In 2021,  Teacher attendance in government schools recorded at 75%, compared to 72% in private schools.  77% of the surveyed government schools had toilets. Similarly, 95% surveyed private primary schools have toilet facilities.  Drinking water facility is available in 68% and 81% in government and private schools, respectively.  14% government and 27% private schools have a functional computer lab. 215
250. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Conclusion : There is a disparity among available facilities in government and private schools and technology access remains limited. It is also of concern that compared to 2019, government schools have not maintained trends in making basic facilities available for children. Schools’ SOPs & Preparation to Prevent the Spread of COVID-19  Alternate Day Schooling: Only 38% of the surveyed government and 55% private schools reported that they are practicing alternate day schooling.  COVID-19 SOPs Posters: 70% of the government and 81% of the surveyed private schools reported that they have COVID-19 SOPs awareness posters on the school walls.  Mask Wearing Practices: 70% of the government and 87% of the private schools reported that they ensure that students and teachers wear masks while in school.  Temperature Check at Entrance: Only 46% of the government schools and 55% of the private schools reported that they ensure temperature check at school entrance.  Social Distancing in Classrooms: 61% of the government schools and 56% of the private schools reported that students are seated at least 3 feet distance.  Isolation Rooms Availability: Only 28% of the government schools and 46% of the private schools reported to have designated a separate room as isolation/quarantine room to isolate a suspected student of COVID-19 case. Conclusion: Lack of strict enforcement of COVID-19 SOPs in schools (more government) demands urgent government and decision makers’ attention at the highest level; there is an urgency to improve non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and hold emergency preparedness drills for behavior change. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic has not only created a health crisis in the country but also adversely affected other sectors including education sector. In order to mitigate the learning losses of students during the closure of educational institutes, the government has launched initiatives like Tele School and Radio School to provide distance learning and addressed provision of education to the children of far flung and remote areas during the pandemic. Pakistan’s literacy and enrolment have been improving over the last couple of years. The present government is focusing to improve both the quality and coverage of education through effective policy interventions and enhancing allocation of resources, but the required reforms in education sector cannot be achieved without active participation of private sector. 216
251. Chapter 11 Health and Nutrition Good health is pivotal to mankind ’s well-being and happiness that contributes significantly to prosperity and even economic progress, as healthy population is more productive, earn more income and live longer. A balanced diet, good hygienic habits, staying in a proper shelter and getting enough sleep are the basic requirements for a healthy life cycle. Good health and nutrition play a pivotal role in socio-economic development of a country, whereas malnutrition and poor health are considered as barriers to socio-economic development. Human welfare directly depends on good health and is also one of the main components that determine income levels. The present government is fully committed to provide improved health services to its citizens with special focus on upgrading and strengthening primary and secondary healthcare facilities in the country. The COVID-19 pandemic has tested country’s health infrastructure and identified need for more investment in health sector especially for diagnostic facilities, disease surveillance, disease prevention and spread, training of health personnel and their protection from pandemic, vaccine development, up-grading health care infrastructure, emergency rooms, intensive care units, isolation wards and public awareness. Regional Comparison Socio-economic factors such as health, education, income, employment etc., are closely interlinked with Human Development Indicators. Pakistan has shown improvement in health indicators over the last three years. Life expectancy is increased from 66.9 years in 2017 to 67.3 years in 2019, but is still behind in the region. The infant mortality rate, maternal mortality and population growth rate have been decreased during the last three years. Comparative position of regional countries’ in health indicators development is given in Table 11.1: Table 11.1: Regional Countries Health Indicators Country Name Pakistan Afghanistan India Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Bhutan China Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births) 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 66.9 67.1 67.3 58.8 57.2 55.7 64.1 64.5 64.8 49.6 48.0 46.5 69.2 69.4 69.7 31.4 29.7 28.3 72.1 72.3 72.6 28.0 26.7 25.6 76.6 76.8 77.0 6.7 6.4 6.1 70.2 70.5 70.8 27.4 26.5 25.6 71.1 71.5 71.8 25.5 24.7 23.8 76.5 76.7 76.9 7.9 7.3 6.8 Maternal Mortality Ratio (Per 100,000) 2015 154.0 701.0 158.0 200.0 36.0 236.0 203.0 30.0 2016 143.0 673.0 150.0 186.0 36.0 200.0 193.0 29.0 Under 5 Mortality Rate (Per 1,000) Population growth (annual %) 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 140.0 71.6 69.4 67.2 2.0* 2.0* 1.9* 638.0 64.9 62.5 60.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 145.0 38.5 36.3 34.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 173.0 33.9 32.3 30.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 36.0 7.8 7.4 7.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 186.0 33.2 31.9 30.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 183.0 30.6 29.6 28.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 29.0 9.2 8.5 7.9 0.6 0.5 0.4
252. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 11 .1: Regional Countries Health Indicators Country Name Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births) Maternal Mortality Ratio (Per 100,000) Under 5 Mortality Rate (Per 1,000) Population growth (annual %) 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 Indonesia 71.3 71.5 71.7 21.7 20.9 20.2 192.0 184.0 177.0 25.7 24.8 23.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 Malaysia 75.8 76.0 76.2 7.1 7.2 7.3 30.0 29.0 29.0 8.3 8.4 8.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 Philippines 71.0 71.1 71.2 22.7 22.2 21.6 127.0 124.0 121.0 28.7 28.0 27.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Thailand 76.7 76.9 77.2 8.4 8.1 7.7 38.0 37.0 37.0 9.9 9.4 9.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 Note: Above data is given in a calendar year *: National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS), Government of Pakistan Source: World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Health Status In order to make substantial progress on Goal 3 of Sustainable Development Goals (Good Health and Wellbeing), Government of Pakistan has given priority to strengthen health sector to further resolve and address the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Enhanced effective coverage of skilled birth attendants, improved public sector health facilities, increased number of Basic Health Units (BHUs) and Rural Health Clinics (RHCs) equipped with essential services are the reflection of these priorities. To enable effective family planning, pre- and post-pregnancy care and neonatal care, the Lady Health Workers (LHW) programme revitalized through adequate training, support and a revised service structure. Pakistan’s Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has declined from 62.1 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015 to 55.7 in 2019, while Neonatal Mortality Rate declined from 45.2 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015 to 41.2 in 2019. Percentage of birth attended by skilled health personnel is increased from 58 percent in 2015 to 68 percent in 2020 (PSLM, 2019-20). Maternal Mortality Ratio fell from 276 maternal deaths per 100,000 births in 2006, to 189 in 2019 (Table-11.2). Government is committed to increase its critical workforce from 1.45 to 4.45 per 1,000 persons, in line with World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. With a population growth rate of 1.9 percent, Pakistan’s contraceptive prevalence rate in 2019 stayed stagnant at 34.0 percent. Pakistan’s tuberculosis incidence is of 263 per 100,000 population and HIV prevalence rate is 0.1 per 1,000 population in 2019 while, mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is 59.9 percent. Pakistan is exploring dedicated actions to curb the rising burden of NCDs, although, many of its efforts have been severally affected by COVID-19 pandemic repercussions. Table 11.2: Health Indicators of Pakistan Maternal mortality Ratio (per 100,000 births)* Neonatal mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000) Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) Incidence of HIV (per 1,000 uninfected population) Life expectancy at birth, (years) Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total)** Contraceptive prevalence, any methods (% of women ages 15-49) 2015 276 (2006) 45.2 62.1 76.1 270 0.10 66.6 58.0 32.0 (2014) 2019 189 41.2 55.7 67.2 263 0.12 67.3 68.0 (2020) 34.0 *: Pakistan Maternal Mortality Survey (2019), (NIPS). **: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) District Level Survey, 2019-20, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Source: World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank 218
253. Health Due to increasing demand in public health service delivery , the health services delivery infrastructure has expanded significantly. By the year 2020, national health infrastructure comprised of 1,282 hospitals, 5,472 BHUs, 670 RHCs, 5,743 Dispensaries, 752 Maternity & Child Health Centres and 412 TB centres, while the total availability of beds in these health facilities have been estimated at 133,707. There are 245,987 registered doctors, 27,360 registered dentists and 116,659 registered nurses in these facilities together. The detail is presented in table 11.3 below: Table 11.3: Registered Medical and Paramedical Personnel Health Manpower 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Doctors 167,759 175,223 184,711 195,896 Dentists 13,716 15,106 16,652 18,333 Nurses 86,183 90,276 94,766 99,228 Midwives 32,677 33,687 34,668 36,326 Lady Health 14,388 15,325 16,448 17,384 Visitors Note: Above data is given in a calendar year, P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (in Nos.) 2020 (P) 208,007 220,829 233,261 245,987 2018 2019 22,595 24,930 27,360 103,777 108,474 112,123 116,659 20,463 38,060 18,400 40,272 19,910 41,810 20,565 43,129 21,361 Health Expenditures Health expenditures have increased gradually since 2011-12. The health-related expenditure increased by 14.3 percent from Rs 421.8 billion in 2018-19 to Rs 482.3 billion in 2019-20. Public sector expenditure on health was estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019-20, as compared to 1.1 percent in 2018-19. The health expenditure details are given in Table 11.4 and Figure 11.1: Table 11.4: Federal and Provincial Governments Health Expenditure Fiscal Years Public Sector Expenditure (Federal and Provincial) Rs million Current Development Total Health Expenditure Expenditure Expenditures Health Expenditure as % of GDP 2011-12 104,284 29,898 134,182 0.7 2012-13 129,421 31,781 161,202 0.6 2013-14 146,082 55,904 201,986 0.7 2014-15 165,959 65,213 231,172 0.7 2015-16 192,704 75,249 267,953 0.9 2016-17 229,957 99,005 328,962 1.0 2017-18 329,033 87,434 416,467 1.2 2018-19 363,154 58,624 421,778 1.1 2019-20 (P) 406,011 76,254 482,265 1.2 P: Provisional Source: PRSP Budgetary Expenditures, (EF-Policy Wing), Finance Division, Islamabad. 219
254. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 600 Fig-11 .1: Total Public Sector Expenditures on Health Development Current Total (Rs. billion) 500 400 300 200 100 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year Health Sector Projects of Federal PSDP during FY2021 After the passage of 18th constitutional amendment, provision of health services is the mandate of the provincial governments however, the Federal Government has supported various health related projects through Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), for fulfillment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and overall health status in the country. During FY2021, PSDP allocations of Rs 20,193.9 million were made for 71 health sector projects. The details are given in table 11.5 below; Table 11.5: PSDP Portfolio of Health Sector S. No Name of Ministry/Organization 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ministry of National Health Services Regulations and Coordination (NHSRC) Cabinet Division Defense Division Federal Education & Professional Training Division Higher Education Commission Kashmir Affairs & Gilgit Baltistan Division Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Planning Development and Special Initiatives Science & Technological Research Division Total No of Projects 51 (Rs million) PSDP Allocation 2020-21 91,759.470 14,508.180 Total Cost 01 01 01 306.000 25.000 21.058 306.000 25.000 7.000 07 04 03 02 01 71 10,303.930 9,975.373 7,729.469 1,201.917 50.170 121,372.387 958.002 2,207.714 2,019.370 121.974 40.646 20,193.886 Source: Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (Health Section) In addition, government has introduced an especial programme with an outlay of Rs 70 billion to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. The programme is focusing on upgrading health care facilities, sewerage system, solid waste management, clean drinking water and education. The salient features of PSDP programmes related to health sector are as follows: 220
255. Health i ) Sehat Sahulat Programme Government of Pakistan has started a landmark health care initiative, “Sehat Sahulat Programme” with an objective to lead a path towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in the country. Sehat Sahulat Programme is not only a social health protection initiative which is providing a path to achieve “National Health Vision 2016-2025” but also acting as a game changer, through which, government is providing health care services to general public both from public and private hospitals. In brief, it is a scheme for the poor enabling them to access required health-care services in a swift and dignified manner without any financial obligations. Sehat Sahulat Programme is being implemented in phases and its first phase (2016-2018) was implemented in 38 districts, covering 3.2 million families. In second phase (2019-2020) the programme is being implemented in 91 districts, providing services to 8.5 million families and the number of beneficiaries of the programme are increasing day by day. ii) "Ehsaas" Programme, Family Planning and Primary Healthcare Programme (FP&PHC) FP&PHC programme with intensification through Ehsaas Programme, is striving to control population growth. Pakistan has a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 3.7 percent and Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) of 34.0 percent (PSLM, 2018-19). Pakistan has demonstrated ongoing efforts towards the promotion of family planning. Each province has drafted its plan for family planning. Family planning task forces comprising of public and private sector stakeholders have been constituted. The government is committed to ensure easily accessible range of methods in the country and has trained mid-level service providers in public and private sectors to provide Intra Uterine Devices (IUDs) and implants. Additionally, to promote acceptability of family planning, the government is collaborating with family elders and religious leaders as part of its social mobilization efforts. Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa governments have established health centres specifically for adolescents. To continue promoting strong government commitment, government is making its efforts to strengthen collaboration among regions, in order to reach 6.7 million additional users of contraception and increase CPR to 50 percent. iii) Expanded Programme for Immunization Pakistan became the first country in the world to include Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) in its compulsory Expanded Programme for Immunization (EPI). The EPI is now providing immunization to children against eight (08) Vaccine-Preventable Diseases i.e., childhood tuberculosis, poliomyelitis, diphtheria, pertussis, neonatal tetanus, measles, hepatitis B and typhoid. The government is committed to address hurdles for improving vaccine coverage programme through better management, effective monitoring and evaluation (M&E), upgraded performance management in service delivery, logistics control, human resource management (HRM) and financing. It is quite encouraging that the proxy indicator for fully immunized-child i.e. coverage for Measles-1 is currently at 88 percent in the country. For EPI, government has allocated an amount of Rs 2.2 billion in PSDP 2020-21. 221
256. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 The Federal EPI in consultation with provinces has been meticulously working on optimization of immunization cold chain through development of operational deployment plans for the supply of cold chain equipment . After successful deployment of 6,802 Cold Chain Equipment Including Ice Lined Refrigerators (ILRs) and Solar Direct Drives (SDDs) in 2018 and 4,475 Equipment by September 2020, deployment plan for another 2,301 ILRs, 1,049 SDDs and 89 Cold Rooms is being finalized. iv) Polio Eradication Initiative (PEI) Programme Almost 38 million children were vaccinated during March, 2021 through the National Immunization Day (NID) campaign across the country. Pakistan is one of only 2 remaining countries in the world with ongoing wild poliovirus transmission, along with Afghanistan. The number of polio cases declined from 306 in 2014 to 54 in 2015, 20 in 2016, 8 in 2017 and 12 in 2018. However, in 2019, the programme witnessed a significant spread of the virus and reported 147 polio cases across the country. In 2020, 84 cases have been reported (Punjab 14, Sindh 22, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 22 and Balochistan 26). The government is fully committed for polio eradication efforts to ensure that Pakistan achieves polio-free status. Table 11.6: Province Wise Polio Cases Provinces/Region 2015 2016 2017 Punjab 2 0 1 Sindh 12 8 2 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 33 10 1 Balochistan 7 2 3 Gilgit-Baltistan 0 0 1 Azad Jammu & Kashmir 0 0 0 ICT 0 0 0 Total 54 20 8 Source: End Polio Pakistan (www.endpolio.com.pk) 2018 0 1 8 3 0 0 0 12 2019 12 30 93 12 0 0 0 147 2020 14 22 22 26 0 0 0 84 (Nos.) 2021 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 v) National Health Emergency Preparedness & Response Network National Health Emergency Preparedness & Response Network (NHEP&RN) was established in 2011 with the aim to: i) coordinate and liaison with other national stakeholders to maximize efficiency ii) formulate and disseminate health related updates and information iii) coordinate need based delivery iv) coordinate with provinces/districts for collection of information on essential medicines v) coordinate with WHO/provinces/districts for collection of disease data on daily basis. During 2020, NHEP&RN in collaboration with JHPIEGO (Johns Hopkins Program for International Education in Gynecology and Obstetrics) conducted training sessions of quarantine facilities staff on infection prevention and standard precautionary measures regarding COVID-19. vi) Safe Blood Transfusion Services (SBTS) Programme The Safe Blood Transfusion Services Programme was established by the Ministry of Health, with the collaboration from Government of Germany, to restructure the blood transfusion system and to promote a modern national blood transfusion system. The strategy involved gradually replacing the existing unsafe fragmented system with the 222
257. Health internationally recommended centralized model . Since its establishment, the SBTS has delivered a series of outputs which have significantly contributed to improvement in blood safety standards and establishment of strong bonds among the federal and provincial governments. The government is taking necessary measures to prevent and control widespread of communicable diseases in the country through blood transfusion by scaling up of SBTS Programme. In this regard, government has allocated Rs 235 million in PSDP 2020-21 for ongoing SBTS project, entitled “Establishment of Safe Blood Transfusion Services in ICT”. vii) Malaria Control Programme According to Directorate of Malaria Control, Pakistan remains one of the highest burden sharing countries in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), with an estimated one million malaria cases annually. Efforts were made to reduce malaria burden particularly in 60 high-risk districts of the country (mostly from Balochistan & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), by providing free of cost diagnostic and treatment services in more than 5,000 health care centres, distribution of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets (LLITN) among people, capacity building of the health care personnel, spraying in outbreak situation and epidemic prone areas and raising awareness campaign about malaria in the community. Around 7 million suspects are screened for malaria every year. Whereas around 350,000 confirmed malaria cases are treated as per national treatment guidelines. More than 6 million LLITNs have been distributed in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (including merged tribal areas) and Sindh province to prevent population from malaria. In addition, malaria diagnostic and treatment services will be further expanded to achieve universal coverage in high risk districts of Pakistan. viii) Tuberculosis (TB) Control Programme According to WHO, Pakistan ranked fifth highest burden country of tuberculosis worldwide, with an estimated 510,000 new TB cases emerging every year. The incidence and mortality per 100,000 population per year from TB in Pakistan is 263 and 19 respectively. With the guidance of WHO, Pakistan has developed a National TB Control Programme (NTP) to prevent population from TB. The programme includes universal access to quality TB care in the country, expanding partnerships and multi-sectoral approaches by engaging all stakeholders. NTP strives for TB free Pakistan by reducing 50 percent prevalence of TB in general population by 2025 in comparison to 2012, through universal access to quality TB care and achieving Zero TB death. ix) Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) / Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Control Programme National AIDS Control Programme is a part of Common Management Unit for AIDS, TB & Malaria. HIV / AIDS control programme aims for the Behavior Change Communication (BCC) strategy, services to high-risk population groups, treatment of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs), the supply of safe blood for transfusions and capacity building. Asian Epidemic Modeling has estimated that at present, there are 197,943 people living with HIV/AIDS in Pakistan. In treatment Programme, there have been 49 223
258. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 HIV Treatment centres (Punjab 25, Sindh 16, Khyber Paktunkhawa 4, Balochistan 2 and ICT 2) and 11 PPTCT (Prevention of Parents to Child Transmission of HIV) established across the country. Till December 2020, about 24,362 HIV patients were taking Antiretrovirals (ARVs) medicines to control HIV infection. For prevention programme, there are 17 CBOs (Community based Organizations) working to prevent HIV transmission in key population (Transgender, Male & Female sex workers). x) Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) For estimation of health related indicators and generation of vital statistics, Federal Government is fully committed for acceleration and enhancement of CRVS system in the country. For CRVS, a number of milestones were achieved ranging from national assessment studies, organization of country-wide advocacy seminars, drafting of National Policy to Revamp and Reform CRVS in Pakistan, thematic area meetings for the development of a robust National CRVS Strategic Framework. A project has been launched to transform ICT into model CRVS district. In this regard, ICT will be converted into a model CRVS district where revamped and reformed processes for vital events registration will be deployed to achieve universal civil registration. An amount of Rs 22 million has been allocated in PSDP 2020-21 for strengthening of CRVS system. Challenge of COVID-19 Outbreak The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the emergence of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in January, 2020. In Pakistan, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 26, February 2020, when the first patient in Karachi tested positive while returning from Iran. The first wave of COVID-19 claimed 6,795 lives, infected 332,186 and left behind 632 on ventilators. The government announced a second wave of COVID-19 on 28 October, 2020, when there was sudden increase in active cases from 6,000 to 11,000 and 93 hospitalized patients were put on ventilators. The third wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan started on 17 March, 2021, when daily cases reached to 3,000 with positivity rate of 10 percent. Till 04th June, 2021, 928,588 confirmed cases with 856,005 recoveries and 21,105 deaths recorded in the country. Punjab has recorded the most number of cases i.e, 341,390 followed by Sindh with a number of 321,425 cases, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 133,746 and Balochistan 25,476 cases. Based on reported cases, the mortality rate is approximately 2.3 percent. The government is employing available public sector capacity and private community to rapidly scale up the health system to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The government has constituted a high-level National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC), which is nerve centre to synergize and articulate unified national effort and to implement the decisions of National Coordination Committee (NCC) on COVID-19. The government response for the prevention of COVID-19 includes, deploying interventions for strengthening clinical management, infection prevention and provision of Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) to frontline health workers, availability of laboratory diagnostic capacity, biosecurity/biosafety surveillance & reporting, health workforce preparedness and emergency response. In addition, social sector programmes, development partners, financial institutions and civil societies all are currently engaged in different capacities to fight against the pandemic. 224
259. Health National Deployment and Vaccination Plan for COVID-19 Vaccine Pakistan formally launched the coronavirus vaccination drive on 03 February , 2021. The detailed plan of action for introducing the vaccine in Pakistan was initiated by the NCOC. Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had approved a proposal of the M/o NHSR&C for the provision of technical supplementary grant amounting US$ 150 million for the purchase of COVID-19 vaccine. ECC had also approved the technical supplementary grant of US$ 130 million to ensure timely procurement of COVID-19 vaccine. The amount will be utilized for the purchase of 10 million doses of vaccine during the month of June, 2021. Earlier, China has donated 1.5 million doses of Sinopharm vaccine, which has an efficacy of 79 percent. Till 02nd June, 2021, a total of 13.0 million doses of vaccine have been received by the Government of Pakistan. The local manufacturing of vaccine has also been started at National Institute of Health and soon the vaccine will be available at the vaccination centres through local production. Table 11.7: Top Manufacturers of COVID-19 Vaccine Name AstraZeneca Pfizer Sinopharm Origin UK USA China Clinical Trials Phase III (62-90%) Phase III (95%) Phase III (78%) Storage 2-8°C -70°C 2-8°C Production 3 billion in 2021 1 billion in 2021 1 billion in 2021 Capacity Production Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q1 2021 Time Source: Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation & Coordination Moderna USA Phase III (94.5%) -20°C 1 billion in 2021 Q2 2021 As a pre-requisite for introducing COVID-19 vaccine in Pakistan, NCOC constituted an Expert Committee on vaccines and immunization, which will guide the M/o NHSR&C on the target populations that would be prioritized for vaccination (in phases) and vaccine characteristic to be preferred for use in Pakistan. Besides this committee, a National Vaccine Task Force (VTF) has also been formed with a wider participation of all local stakeholders and vaccine experts to take timely decision and oversee the preparation process of vaccine deployment. Box-I: Regional Comparison of COVID-19, Policy Response and Vaccine Rollout In almost every country, health-care delivery has been disrupted by mistaken initial assumption that health systems would quickly win the fight against COVID-19. Now, it is clear that pandemic will persist much longer than anticipated. It was estimated that at least half of the world’s 7.8 billion people lacked access to essential health services. But now COVID-19 has increased these numbers and eroded access to health care. The COVID-19 pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time. It continues to ravage the health sector and economies in the South Asian region over the time. The infected cases are rapidly rising in India, compared to other countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, which have seen a less devastating impact from the virus. Pakistan and Sri Lanka has so far coped reasonably well with the pandemic as compared to other regional countries. Iran is the worst in the region as having the second highest fatality rate of 2.7 percent after Afghanistan and 96.0 deaths per 100 thousand of population as explained below: 225
260. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Country wise Cases and Mortality (as on 04-06-2021) Country Confirmed Cases Deaths Case-Fatality India 28,570,000 340,702 1.2% Pakistan 928,588 21,105 2.3% Iran 2,950,000 80,658 2.7% Bangladesh 805,980 12,724 1.6% Sri Lanka 195,844 1,608 0.8% Afghanistan 75,119 3,034 4.0% Source: Our World in Data (Nos.) Deaths/100k Pop. 24.7 9.6 96.0 7.7 7.5 7.8 The situation calls for mass-vaccination drives on a global scale, the recent start of deliveries under the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) mechanism for vaccine finance and deployment is very encouraging. But at the same time, equitable distribution has remained the challenge due to the shortage of vaccine. Beside the accessibility, people’s reluctance to get a vaccine jab is disrupting vaccination drive. Pakistan has administered 7,953,574 doses of vaccine but vaccination rate is 3.60 per 100 members of the population. Vaccination Rollout by Country (as on 04-06-2021) Country Doses Administered India 218,340,000 Pakistan 7,953,574 Iran 3,140,000 Bangladesh 10,020,000 Sri Lanka 2,120,000 Afghanistan 626,290 Source: Our World in Data (Nos.) People Vaccinated Per Hundred 15.82 3.60 3.74 6.08 9.89 1.61 On health care policy front, policy makers have attempted to overcome the disruptions caused by COVID-19 through preventive & control measures and campaigns at national levels. Obsolete procedures have been replaced with advanced technologies, from remote consultations to voicetranscription from online shopping to digital payments; from more prevalent online learning to work from home in all the regions. Some countries have also provided insurance to health frontline workers like PMGKP Insurance Scheme in India. In Pakistan a special programme “COVID-19 Responsive and other Natural Calamities Control Programme” with an outlay of Rs 70 billion has been introduced to upgrade and strengthen the health sector and to support the less developed areas of the country. All measures helped to subside the worst impact of COVID-19 on health sector. Countries need to reassess their delivery strategies and make targeted investments in essential health services. Doing so will strengthen their resilience against similar health crises in the future. Provincial Government Achievements/Initiatives in Health Sector i) Government of Punjab During FY2021, Government of Punjab allocated Rs 22.2 and 11.5 billion for specialized healthcare & medical education department and primary & secondary healthcare department respectively. This will help in the smooth and timely implementation of 173 development projects, which includes increasing number of 24/7 Basic Health Units (BHUs) & Rural Health Centres (RHCs) equipped with a basic package of services, staff and ambulance service, establishing training institutes for nurses and paramedical staff, upgrading secondary care facilities and building state of the art hospitals in the major urban cities of province. 226
261. Health Government of Punjab is also up scaling the Sehat Insaf Card Programme aiming to provide health insurance to 30 million families of the province , by December 2021. Punjab Government is managing a number of programmes aimed at controlling different types of diseases including Hepatitis Control Programme, AIDS Control Programme, EPI, TB Control Programme, Malaria Control Programme and Infection Control Programme. Punjab has 34 District Headquarter Hospitals (DHQs), 88 Tehsil Headquarter Hospitals (THQs), 293 RHCs, 2,461 BHUs and 23 Teaching Hospitals. ii) Government of Sindh Government of Sindh has allocated Rs 28.9 billion for 141 on-going and 51 new health schemes under ADP 2020-21. Efforts are being made for strengthening, upgrading, rehabilitation of teaching hospitals and establishment of new primary healthcare facilities in the province. Twenty three (23) healthcare centres are strengthened with dialysis services across the province, to meet the increasing demand of growing number of renal diseases. Four (04) Regional Blood Transfusion Centres (RBTC) have been established and made functional with the financial assistance of German Government. Moreover, a 196 bedded Sindh Infectious Diseases Control Hospital & Research Centre at Karachi has been established and made functional. Sindh has 6 teaching hospitals, 5 specialized institutions for chest, dermatological and mental illness, 11 DHQs, 27 major hospitals, 99 RHCs and 738 BHUs. iii) Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa The Health Department of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (including merged districts) has a network of 106 RHCs, 940 BHUs, 9 teaching hospitals, 30 DHQs and 22 THQs. The Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has initiated/executed up-gradation process of several BHUs to RHCs level in the province. The Government adopted a multi-year Accelerated Implementation Programme (AIP) 2019-2022, to address the key developmental gaps in the Merged Areas. AIP is the first 03 years development programme under the Tribal Decade Strategy that seeks to address the developmental disparity of the Merged Areas and bring the area at par with other areas of Pakistan. In this regard, government has allocated an amount of Rs 8.3 billion in ADP 2020-21. Moreover, Sehat Sahulat Programme is targeted to extend to 100 percent of the population of the province by June 2021. iv) Government of Balochistan Government of Balochistan has allocated an amount of Rs 7.1 billion for 63 on-going and 93 new health projects in the ADP 2020-21, spread over all the sub-sectors of health, namely Primary Health, Curative Health and General Health, to enhance health infrastructure/facilities across the province. In addition to ADP, major milestones in health sector are achieved by the health department includes formulation and approval of very first Balochistan Health Policy, posting of specialists and lady medical officers in all health care centres across the province and establishment of Balochistan Health Care Commission through BHCC Bill 2020. Balochistan has 27 DHQs, 10 THQs, 4 teaching hospitals, 82 RHCs and 549 BHUs. 227
262. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Cancer Treatment Programme by Atomic Energy Cancer Hospitals With the advent of modern technology in medicine , mortality associated with communicable diseases has been significantly reduced. Today, non-communicable diseases are responsible for majority of global deaths and cancer is ranked second leading cause of death worldwide. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) has given high priority to the application of nuclear technology in the health sector, especially utilizing radiotherapy in the treatment of cancer. Currently, there are 18 operational Atomic Energy Cancer Hospitals (AECHs) dedicated to serve poor cancer patients, not only in major cities but also in remote areas of the country. These hospitals are diligently working to provide the latest and comprehensive diagnostic and treatment facilities to cancer patients. AECHs are operated by skilled teams of more than 2,500 professionals including doctors, scientists, engineers, paramedical, technical and other supportive staff. AECHs are equipped with advanced, sophisticated and modern diagnostic/therapeutic facilities. Major services provided at these hospitals are diagnostic and therapeutic Nuclear Medicine, Theranostics, Radiotherapy, Chemotherapy, Indoor wards facilities, Cancer screening/Filter clinics, Hormonal assays, Biochemistry, Hematology, Histopathology and diagnostic Radiology. Seminars, conferences and symposium for creating public awareness regarding cancer prevention and importance of early diagnosis are integral part of services at all AECHs. Nuclear Medicine & Oncology (NM&O): Management of cancer patient requires multidisciplinary approach and is an expensive affair. Hence, economic impact of cancer is significant and on the rise due to increasing cancer burden. Low and middle income countries have lack of necessary data to drive cancer policy. Pakistan also needs to develop international standard cancer registry that can project actual cancer burden in the country and in turn give insight to health sector to devise clear policy for cancer control & prevention. NM&O Division of PAEC has published first Cancer Registry Report comprising new cancer cases reported in all AECHs, during period 2015-17. Breast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed in women, while oral cavity cancers are at top among males. Most common types of cancer are shown in graph (Figure 11.2 & 11.3): Fig 11.2: Top Ten Cancers in Males of Pakistan 2015-17 (n=44,809) Oral Cavity Lung 6.6% Colorectum 6.3% Central Nervous System (CNS) 5.9% Liver 5.8% Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) 5.6% Prostate 5.4% Leukemia 4.6% Esophasgus 4.2% Bladder 4.1% Others Source: Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission 228 12.1% 39.3%
263. Health Fig 11 .3: Top Ten Cancers in Females of Pakistan 2015-17 (n=57,312) Breast Ovary 6.6% Oral Cavity 5.3% Cervix 4.8% Esophasgus 3.5% Uterus 3.5% Colorectum 3.0% Central Nervous System (CNS) 2.6% Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) 2.5% Thyroid 2.1% Others Source: Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission 39.5% 26.7% It is expected that this data will help in cancer research and assist oncologists to determine probable causes and treatments outcome. Health departments can further formulate appropriate cancer prevention & control policy/strategies conducting comprehensive epidemiological surveys of cancer related death. Achievements In addition to the management of patients, the following targets have been achieved in the current fiscal year:  A medical linear accelerator (LINAC) has been installed at INMOL, Lahore  Gamma camera for AECH, Gilgit (GINOR) along with Mammography and other Lab equipment have been installed  Research work continued on various International Atomic Energy Agency Projects, with the collaboration of different international/national organizations  Events and awareness campaigns for cancer prevention/control are a regular feature at all AECH. Over 50 such events were organized throughout the country which included seminars, webinar, workshops and walks for general public awareness  Three mobile breast care clinics (INMOL, BINO and NIMRA) are also functional and continuously arranged monthly or fortnightly visits and camps in remote areas for awareness and screening purposes. Special Projects In order to provide better treatment facilities to the patients, PAEC continued working on the following new initiatives/projects:  Establishment of cancer hospital in Azad Jammu & Kashmir for which land has been acquired and PC-1 is under consideration for approval  Pakistan Atomic Energy Cancer Registry (PAECR) report for year 2019 is also being published  Upgradation projects of AECHs Karachi (KIRAN & AEMC), Bahawalpur (BINO) and AECH, Lahore (INMOL) is under consideration for approval 229
264. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  Pakistan Atomic Energy Cancer Registry (PAECR) report for year 2020 is under process for finalization. Nutrition Security Proper nutrition is considered as a foundation of human development. It is a cross cutting subject and is strongly linked with almost 12 SDGs. Malnutrition hinders the development with harmful consequences to the human body. Investing in nutrition is one of the smartest approaches to overcome the issue of malnutrition, boost economic growth and bring prosperity to the people and nation. Almost one person in every nine people in the world is hungry, while one out of three is overweight. Most of the countries including Pakistan, experience the double burden of malnutrition. According to the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) 2018, 40 percent of children under age of 5 year are stunted, 18 percent wasted and 29 percent underweight. The proportion of overweight children under five is 9 percent. Similarly, more than half (57 percent) of adolescent girls and 42 percent Women of Reproductive Age (WRA) in Pakistan are anemic. Food Availability and Consumption: i) Food Availability: Food availability focuses on the supply of sufficient quantity of foods. It is directly linked with the state of food and nutrition security. Being an agrarian country, Pakistan produces enough quantity of food for its domestic consumption. However, import and export fulfills the shortfall and excess respectively. The availability of major food items has been estimated and remained satisfactory during 2020-21, to fulfil the food demand of the population (Table 11.8). The availability of calories through major food commodities is estimated 2,580 in 2020-21 as compared to 2,445 in 2019-20. Table 11.8: Food Availability (Kg) Per Capita Per Annum Food Items 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (P) Cereals 133.0 137.0 149.0 Pulses 7.0 8.0 8.0 Sugar 24.0 26.0 27.0 Milk (Liter) 168.0 169.0 172.0 Meat (Beef, Mutton, Chicken) 21.0 22.0 23.0 Fish 3.0 2.0 3.0 Eggs (Dozen) 5.0 5.0 5.0 Edible Oil/Ghee 15.0 14.0 14.0 Fruits& Vegetables 56.0 54.0 55.0 Calories/Day 2,410 2,445 2,580 P: Provisional Note: The data for the year 2018-19 & 2019-20 has been revised on the basis of Population Census, 2017 P: Provisional Source: Ministry of Planning Development & Special Initiatives (Nutrition Section) ii) Cost of Food Basket: The cost of minimum food basket providing 2,150 calories and 66gm of protein/day is being calculated on the monthly basis by using food prices data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The average monthly cost of food basket during FY2021 has been estimated at Rs 3,059 (Jul-Mar FY2021) (Figure 11.4). The cost 230
265. Health of food basket gradually increased from July , 2020 (Rs 2,976) till November, 2020 (Rs 3,339) and then declined to Rs 2937 in March, 2021. Fig- 11.4: Cost of Food Basket (Rs.) per capita/month 3400 3,299 3,339 3300 3200 3,110 3100 3000 2,976 3,065 3,018 2,899 2,886 Jan-21 Feb-21 2900 2,937 2800 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Source: Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives (Nutrition Section) Nutrition Interventions/Activities Following are the interventions/activities which are underway to mitigate the malnutrition issues and its consequences at national and provincial levels. National Initiatives/Programmes  Under the Food Fortification Programme (Wheat flour, Edible oil & Salt), about 1,006 wheat flour mills across the country are covered and 2,333 micro feeders are installed.  Nutrition specific PC-1 “Tackling Malnutrition Induced Stunting in Pakistan” costing Rs 312 billion aiming to address malnutrition and stunted growth among children, has been developed by the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination (NHSR&C) for 67 high burden malnutrition districts of the country.  Urdu version of the revisited “Pakistan Dietary Guidelines for Better Nutrition” has been prepared for advocacy and awareness among all population groups.  National Nutrition Thought Management Programme (NNTMP) is prepared with the objective to educate and sensitize all population groups on nutrition awareness for food choices to reduce malnutrition, particularly in vulnerable groups.  Multi-sectoral Nutrition Management Information System (MNMIS) is being developed which will serve as a multi-sectoral data source and track nutrition indicators both physically and financially.  Regular sessions of National Nutrition Forum (NNF) are being held and measures have taken regarding policy programming, coordination and research & development for nutrition improvement.  Under Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Networks following activities are performed: − Meetings of the National Steering Committee (NSC) on Early Childhood Development (ECD) were organized. The NSC is a high level inter-ministerial 231
266. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 coordination and decision making authority to provide strategic direction and guide actions related to ECD . − Conducted webinar in collaboration with Global Health Advocacy Incubator & SUN Academia and Research on “Impact of Sugar Sweetened Beverage on Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases”. Provincial Initiatives  Stunting Reduction Programme, Human Capital Investment Programme and Ehsaas Nashonuma Programme are under implementation in Punjab.  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Stunting Prevention and Rehabilitation Integrated Nutrition Gain (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa SPRING) is under implementation in 4 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Bannu, Tank, D.I Khan & Nowshera). A new project “Integration of Health Services Delivery” costing Rs 7.0 billion is under implementation throughout the province. The project will focus on Maternal, Newborn & Child Health and Nutrition.  An Accelerated Action Plan (AAP) for Stunting Reduction and Malnutrition with the cost of Rs 5.6 billion is implementing in 23 districts of Sindh, where rate of stunning is above 40 percent.  Balochistan Nutrition Programme for Mothers & children has been implemented in 7 districts of Balochistan and stands completed now. Narcotics Control Pakistan’s counter narcotics efforts revolve around the three main pillars highlighted in the National Anti-Narcotics Policy, 2019. These three pillars include i) Drug Supply Reduction, ii) Drug Demand Reduction and iii) International Cooperation. Counter narcotics efforts not only encompass the law enforcement side for drug supply reduction but also value equally importance of reducing the domestic demand for drugs. Anti-Narcotics Policy The Anti-Narcotics Policy of Pakistan aims to re-energize existing national drug law enforcement agencies, build the Anti-Narcotics Force capacity, develop an effective coordination and control mechanism and mobilize the people of Pakistan especially youth and institutions to ensure their active participation in eradicating drugs. This policy also seeks to promote international cooperation for mutual support and partnership against narcotics. Policy Objectives: 1. Drug Supply Reduction The main focus of drug supply reduction activities is to strengthen Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) at the federal, provincial and district levels to combat drug trafficking and to reduce the flow of drugs in Pakistan. The capacity of LEAs all over Pakistan and particularly in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan is being improved so that they could effectively assist in disrupting illegal drug trafficking, money laundering and seizing drug generated assets. 232
267. Health 1 .1 Drug Supply Reduction Activities Table 11.9 depicts the narcotics type and quantity seized by Anti-Narcotics Force during July 2020 to December 2020: Table 11.9: Narcotics Type and Quantity Seized S. No. Kind of Narcotics 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. Cases Registered Persons Arrested Opium Morphine Heroin Crystal Hashish Cocaine Amphetamine (Ice) Methamphetamine Ecstasy Tabs Xanax Tabs Prazolam/ Benzo Diazepam Roche-2 Lexotanil Alprazolam Tabs Acetic Anhydride (AA) Hydrochloric Acid (HCI) H2SO4 Poppy Straw Weed Ketamine Suspected Substance Quantity of Drugs Seized (In Kgs/Ltrs) 1,102 1,199 6,412.6 5,726.0 3,943.9 17.0 19,797.7 2.3 90.9 576.4 6.4 4.2 1.0 10.7 0.01 5.4 2,157.0 400.0 1,175.0 0.1 0.6 40.0 23.1 Source: Narcotics Control Division 2. Drug Demand Reduction Various drug addicted patients treated under different Model Addicts Treatment & Rehabilitation Centre (MATRCs) throughout the country. 2.1 ANF Youth Ambassador Programme The programme was launched in June, 2014 and has the participation of more than 5,000 active youth ambassadors. It aims at promoting mass awareness, highlighting emerging trends of drug abuse especially amongst youth. It provides a platform for projecting young talent to channelize the role of youth, thus serving humanity and society. 233
268. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 2 .2 Awareness Activities Mass awareness about harms of drugs amongst students, teachers and various administrative staff is being created through delivering lectures, talks in Schools, College & Universities. Details of lectures delivered for the period from July to December, 2020 is as under: Table 11.10: Province Wise Lecture Delivered on Awareness Punjab Khyber Sindh Pakhtunkhwa 13 21 04 Balochistan 11 (Nos.) Total 49 Source: Narcotics Control Division 3. International Cooperation Illicit trafficking of narcotics and drug abuse is a global challenge. Pakistan is acting as a front line country in combating the menace of drugs. Government of Pakistan has taken number of initiatives to control spread and trafficking of illicit narcotics. However, country cannot fight this menace alone therefore international cooperation is important pillar of Pakistan’s strategy against drugs. Ministry of Narcotics Control has signed 34 MoUs with different countries on unlawful narcotics, while 30 MoUs are under process. 4. Development of New Projects A list of narcotics control development projects, at pre-feasibility level, is given in Table 11.11. The purpose of these projects is to impose an effective check in drug infested areas. Table 11.11: Narcotics Control Development Projects Sr. Name of Projects 1. PC-II for Construction of MATRC Islamabad 2. PC-II for Construction of RD ANF Balochistan 3. PC-II for Construction of PS Panjgur 4. PC-II for Construction of ANF SIC Islamabad 5. Acquisition of Land for ANF PS at Loralai 6. Acquisition of Land for ANF PS at Jiwani Duration of Project Implementation 1-7-2020 to 31-12-2020 1-7-2020 to 31-12-2020 1-7-2020 to 31-12-2020 1-7-2020 to 31-12-2020 1-7-2020 to 30-06-2021 1-7-2020 to 30-06-2021 Estimated cost (Rs million) 9.0 12.2 2.4 8.3 1.4 9.5 Source: Narcotics Control Division Conclusion In the recent history of mankind, the COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest global challenge for world health system and socio-economic fabric. The pandemic has exposed the complex global interdependencies, highlighted fault lines in societal structures that perpetuate ethnic, economic, social and gender inequalities. The government is fully cognizant of fact and provision of best health care services to the general public is its 234
269. Health foremost duty and priority . Federal and provincial governments are engaged in developing strategic partnerships for enhancing technical and institutional capacities, achieving UHC goals and multi-sectoral support, despite the COVID-19 crisis. Focus is on improving diagnostic facilities, surveillance, isolation wards, ICUs at public sector health care centres alongside complying with other international health regulations. The government is fully committed to increase the health coverage to meet the emerging demand of increasing population. Areas which require support for achieving health related SDGs include realistic budgeting, training and management of health workforce with use of technology. For this purpose, public-private partnership needs to be further encouraged for better coverage of public health programmes like TB, Malaria, Hepatitis, EPI and other communicable diseases. 235
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271. Chapter 12 Population , Labour Force and Employment The Human Resource of a country plays an important role not only in the economic development but also for the social well-being of the country. However, large population size and lack of proper management of human resources may lead to social distress and reduce economic performance. Because of increasing population growth, Pakistan is facing difficulty in optimal social spending i.e. health care, education, housing and unemployment etc. In this scenario, the advent and spread of COVID-19 has further aggravated the situation. The government of Pakistan has taken several steps to overhaul the ailing structure of the economy and to implement remedial measures particularly for human capital development. According to the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) estimated population of Pakistan is 215.25 million with population growth rate of 1.80 percent in 20201 and population density of 270 per Km2. Pakistan has an extraordinary asset in the shape of youth bulge, which means that the largest segment of our population consists of young people. The population falling in the age group of 15-59 years is 59 percent, whereas 27 percent is between 15-29 years. This youth bulge can translate into economic gains only if the youth have skills consistent with the requirements of a modern economy. The government has started different programmes for improving employment opportunities for youth such as "Prime Minister's Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme" and "Prime Minister's Hunermand Programme-Skills for All". During COVID-19 Pandemic, protection and creation of jobs is the second biggest challenge after the health crisis in Pakistan. The pandemic adversely impacted employment and labour productivity by impeding growth in various economic sectors. State Bank of Pakistan has taken different measures to counter the effects of COVID-19 like support to firms in paying wages to their employees amid the lockdowns to prevent layoffs (Rozgar Scheme). Further, revival of construction industry during pandemic is one of the major initiatives of the government for employment generation in the country. Pakistan, being the 5th most populous country and having 9th largest labour force in the world, adds a large number to its labour force every year. Pakistan’s labour market data has been derived from the latest available round of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for 2017-18. The data pertaining to 2018-19 round of the LFS has not been released yet. Moreover, Labour Force Survey for 2019-2020 did not take place due to preparations 1 Population data reported in the chapter is based on available projection of NIPS. Census Results 2017 have been released by PBS. NIPS will provide projected data accordingly, with the consultation of PBS and M/o Planning, Development and Special Initiatives. The revised Population data will be published in Statistical Supplement PES 2020-21.
272. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 for an extensive survey in 2020-21 , which will have a district level representative sample. Special Initiatives taken by the Government for Youth Development The ability of an economy to generate sufficient employment opportunities for its population stands vital for optimal utilization of resources. The government has accorded highest priority in its manifesto to youth empowerment at national level. To accomplish the vision of the Prime Minister, National Youth Development Framework (NYDF) was developed on the basic principles of 3Es: Education, Employment and Engagement. The government has designed a comprehensive program “Prime Minister’s Kamyab Jawan Program”. Six (06) components of the Programme are as follows: i. Prime Minister’s Hunarmand Programme (Skill for All) ii. Prime Minister’s Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme (YES) iii. Prime Minister’s Start up Pakistan iv. Prime Minister's Green Youth Movement (GYM) v. Prime Minister’s National Internship Program vi. Prime Minister’s Youth Engagement Platform (Jawan Markaz) The government has already launched two of the components under Prime Minister's Kamyab Jawan Programme i.e., Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme (YES) and Hunarmand Pakistan (Skills for All) whereas Prime Minister’s Start up Pakistan is in final stages. However, remaining three components are under process. Prime Minister’s Hunarmand Pakistan Programme -Skill for All Prime Minister’s Hunarmand Pakistan Programme-Skills for All under Kamyab Jawan program has been implemented since February, 2020 and training cost has been disbursed to all selected training institute to commence the training of 100,000 educated youth in market oriented conventional and High-Tech/High-End courses. The programme will directly employee 42 individuals under the project staff, whereas the services of more than 28,000 individuals will be hired on remuneration basis as instructional, non-instructional technical field experts, assessors, subject judges, industrial experts etc. The 14 areas of interventions covered under this programme are as follows: i. ii. iii. iv. v. Development & Standardization of 200 Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Qualifications International Accreditation of 50 Pakistani TVET institutes with joint degree programmes Extension of National Vocational and Technical Training Commission's (NAVTTC) Job Portal into National Employment Exchange Portal Establishing 75 Smart Tech Labs for virtual skill development programmes Establishing 10 country of destination specific facilitation centers 238
273. Population , Labour Force and Employment vi. vii. viii. ix. Establishing 70 vocational labs in Madrassas Skill development programme for 50,000 youth belonging to less developed areas Skill development training for 50,000 youth in High-End technologies Apprenticeship training for 20,000 youth in industry under Apprenticeship Act2018 x. Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) of 50,000 youth xi. Establishment of National Accreditation Council – placed at ICT xii. Accreditation of 2,000 TVET institutes across Pakistan xiii. Training of 2,500 TVET teachers in international best TVET practices xiv. Establishment of 50 Business Incubation Centers Above mentioned 14 areas of interventions are expected to serve as a catalyst for kicking off the transformation of the entire TVET system in the country. It is also projected that with the initiation of this programme, the long overdue process of TVET sector reforms and transformation will increasingly attract other stakeholders i.e., the provincial governments, industry, private sector and the donors to contribute their share in bringing Pakistani TVET sector at par with international standards. A total number of approximately 170,000 skilled and certified workforce, 2000 Accredited TVET institutes, a national level Accreditation Council, a centralized data based for demand and supply of workforce, National Employment Exchange Portal and technical and vocational labs in Madrassas are the objectives which will be achieved after successful implementation of this programmme. Keeping in view the COVID-19 crisis, free online courses were arranged by NAVTTC, with international certification in order to provide continuous opportunities for youth. More than 12,000 students were enrolled in these courses and the scope of the courses is being further enhanced to bring advance courses for a greater number of youths. Apart from the above initiative of NAVTTC, skill training components have also been included in the EHSAAS programme for the most marginalized segments of society. These programmes will be helpful for the socio-economic betterment of youth and deprived segments of the society. Prime Minister’s Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme (YES) Government of Pakistan in collaboration with SBP has launched ‘Prime Minister’s Kamyab Jawan Youth Entrepreneurships Scheme (PMKJ-YES)’ to empower Pakistan’s youth by extending affordable financing for new and existing startups. Under the scheme, 21 banks are working as executing agency and are providing business loans to youth entrepreneurs ranging from Rs 100,000 to Rs 25 million at the mark-up rate of 35 percent p.a. with the maximum loan tenure of 8 years. As an incentive to the banks, Government will bear credit losses in case of default (principal portion only) on the disbursed portfolio of the banks. For Tier-1 loans, risk coverage is up to 50 percent. For Tier-2 and Tier-3 loans, risk coverage is up to 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Under PMKJ-YES, Rs 8,566 million have been disbursed till April 2021 for various businesses. 239
274. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Prime Minister ’s Start-Up Pakistan Prime Minister’s Startup Pakistan is flagship initiative of KJP taken by the government and envisioned to develop a national startup ecosystem that provides training to one million young people in entrepreneurship and launch 10,000 startups by 2023 as well as creates jobs and economic activities in an inclusive, scalable and sustainable way to provide a single point of contact for the entire Startup Eco system. The program will be executed by Higher Education Commission. The PC-I of the Prime Minister’s Start-up Pakistan is at final stage of finalization and will be implemented soon after meeting all codal formalities. COVID-19: Impact on Labour Market and Employment The COVID-19 Pandemic does have devastating effect not only on human life but it has also come across as an unprecedented challenge to the public health and economic growth. Pakistan has also borne the economic brunt of COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in negative growth of -0.47 percent in FY20, job losses, falling income and deteriorating social indicators. According to "Special Survey for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Wellbeing of People" conducted by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), almost half of the working population was affected due to closure of business and lockdown. As per Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, prior to COVID-19, the working population was 35 percent (55.75 million). However, in pandemic closure of economic activities due to imposition of lock down for health safety, this number declined to 35.04 million which indicates people either lost their jobs or were not able to work. In July 2020, the government announced package for construction sector. Thus opening of sectors in which daily wagers were working along with fiscal stimulus and monetary measures made economy to recover. It was reported that 33 percent (52.56 million resumed working. The sectoral analysis reveals that construction and manufacturing sectors remained the most vulnerable sectors during this Pandemic. Wholesale & retail and transport & communication sectors are severely affected on account of COVID-19. Summarized COVID-19 Pandemic impact on population who lost jobs/could not find job and experienced decrease in income is explained in Fig-1: The above figure shows that COVID-19 Pandemic hampered economic activities in construction and manufacturing sectors due to decline in consumer, business confidence and production and supply chain disruptions. It is estimated that 80 percent worker lost jobs/could not find work and received lower income in construction sector. People were 240 Fig-1: Incidence of Population faced job lost/decrease in income by Industry Agriculture, Forestry Hunting &Fishing ,14% Others, 33% Construction, 80% Community, Social and Personal Services, 36% Mining and Quarying, 38% Wholesale and Retail Trade, 63% Manufacturin g, 72% Transport and Storage, 67% Source: Special Survey for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Wellbeing of People (PBS)
275. Population , Labour Force and Employment reluctant to invest in this sector. Further, manufacturing sector observed disruption in production because of contraction in demand resulting 72 percent worker either lost jobs/could not find work or faced decrease in income. In addition, the present government imposed strict lockdown which hampered wholesale & retail business and transport & storage business leaving 63 percent and 67 percent people to become jobless or had lower income respectively. Prudent government strategies and timely interventions have put economy on the trajectory of recovery and save the nation from very severe impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Further, construction sector package and industrial relief packages etc. are other key initiatives of the government resulting recovery of all segments of the economy from the shock. It was observed that out of 20.6 million people (industry) who lost their jobs/could not work during April-July 2020, 18.4 million had started working again during August- 5th November 2020 depicting a V-shaped recovery. Box-I: Initiatives taken by Government during 2020-21 to reduce the adverse impact of COVID-19 and generate employment Government has taken various steps for reviving the economy, accelerating the pace of economic growth and creating employment in the country. The major programmes are as under: Construction Package Construction industry has backward and forward linkages and boost 40 sectors of small and large manufacturing industry simultaneously. It is estimated that millions of employment opportunities would be generated through construction package. Textile Industry Package Textile production has increased by 5.9 percent during July-March FY21 as compared to 2.6 decline in last year. Flurry of export orders, tax refunds and duty draw backs have facilitated the sector. Statistics have shown that the government has recreated half a million jobs by strengthening the textile industry. Bundal Island Project The project would attract up to five million tourists with people already approaching the government for investment. Approximately 150,000 jobs will be generated by the project. Export Processing Zones Export Processing Zones Authority is conceived and designed to increase and improve the exports of the country. Its main objectives are accelerating the pace of industrialization in the country and enhancing the volume of exports by creating an enabling environment for investors to initiate ambitious export-oriented projects in the Zones which would, as a corollary, create job opportunities, bring in new technology and attract foreign investment. Ravi River Urban Development Programme The government is confident that the Ravi City Project costing Rs 5 trillion ($ 30 billion) would create millions of jobs as at least 40 industries are connected to the construction sector. IT Parks Package Pakistan’s IT Industry, being a vibrant and expanding economic contributor generates over 2 billion dollars each year for the country. Its potential is also being explored. Rapid investment is being fueled by the mushrooming growth of exports along with the support of government organizations and policies. It is expected that thousands of employment opportunities will be generated through this programme. 241
276. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 SBP Rozgar Scheme The Scheme aims to prevent layoff by financing wages and salaries of employees for six months (April 2020-Sep. 2020) for all kind of businesses except for Government entities, public sector enterprises, autonomous bodies and deposit taking financial institutions. It was the most popular refinance scheme of SBP which has helped to prevent layoff of 184,8945 employees of 3,331 businesses till end September, 2020. Out of these, 3,13,599 employees are of 1512 SMEs and small corporates. Source: M/o Planning, Development &Special Initiatives (ii) State Bank of Pakistan Employment Generation under CPEC Investment under CPEC is expected to be around $ 50.70 billion. This huge inflow of investment will generate massive economic activities and consequently employment opportunities. Apart from focusing on energy, infrastructure and Gwadar projects, 9 Special Economic Zones will be established under CPEC portfolio, which will create tremendous job opportunities and technological transformation. Further, the ML-1 project to upgrade and dualize the rail track from Peshawar to Karachi (1872 km) has a potential to create 174,000 direct jobs. Employment opportunities under CPEC would further go up over the period of time. Skill Development Initiatives For low and middle income economies, lack of professional and management skills in youth may lead to unemployment or resistance to acquire quality jobs with decent work environment. The issue is becoming more serious with rapidly changing economies that requires more innovative skills. Workers need to be updated, flexible and adaptive in order to exploit the market opportunities both at national and international level. Thus, youth empowerment and productivity has always been given priority in national plans. Socio-economic progress of youth through Technical & Vocational Education & Training (TVET) is included in long term development plan and globally agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Various programs /schemes have been initiated to meet the confronting challenge of unemployment among youth during current financial year. More than 100,000 youth are under training through targeted training programmes being implemented at federal level. National Skill Strategy (NSS) NAVTTC has devised a National Skill Strategy (NSS), which emphasize on creating a demand-driven training system responsive to requirement of the job market. The priority areas for skill development are well aligned with CPEC projects and indigenous clusters such as agricultural, industrial and mining as well as exportability of skilled workforce. The National Skills Strategy proposed a paradigm shift from time bound curricula-based education to competency-based training and from supply driven trainings to demand driven skills. NSS is well aligned with Prime Minister’s strategy for “Skills for ALL”. Its objectives are:    Relevant skills for industrial and economic development Improvement of access, equity and employability. Assurance of quality through an integrated approach 242
277. Population , Labour Force and Employment Strengthened Industrial Linkages One of the major reasons for non-performing TVET sector in Pakistan was the absence of strong industrial linkages. To overcome this deficiency special emphasis has been laid on giving pivotal role to industry and private sector in TVET sector development in the country. For this purpose:     Three Sector Skill Councils (SSCs) have been established in the construction, hospitality, renewable energy and textile sectors. The concept of Institute Management Committees (IMCs) has been introduced for the first time in Pakistan at the TVET institute level, which gives greater representation to private sector in the management and training delivery at the TVET institute level. Industry has been actively involved in all aspects of training such as curricula development, final assessments, on-job training and selection of institutes. The outdated Apprenticeship Bill, 1962 has been replaced with Apprenticeship Act, 2018. The new law has a broader scope and is in line with the latest best practices in the field of apprenticeship. Job Placement Centres (JPCs) A dedicated web portal (www.jobplacement.gov.pk) has been developed by NAVTTC to link skill workers with potential employers. Skill profiles of more than 570,000 Pakistani youth are available on this job portal and NAVTTC which is providing free of cost facility to both youth and Pakistani industry to bring them closer and realize the dual objective of employment for youth and quality skilled workforce for industry in order to enhance their productivity and competitiveness. More than one hundred Job Placement and Vocational Counseling Centers (JP&VCCs) have also been established across the country for the benefit of youth. Overseas Employment Pakistan is one of the largest labour exporting country in the region. Overseas migrant workers are the most valuable asset of Pakistan and they are playing key role in the socio-economic development of the country through their remittances. More than 11.43 million Pakistanis have proceeded abroad for employment to over 50 countries through official procedures. The migration of Pakistani workers is mostly concentrated to Gulf Cooperation Council countries (96 per cent) with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hosting the majority. Table 12.1: Pakistani Workers Registered for Overseas Employment Countries 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Saudi Arabia. 462,598 143,363 100,910 332,713 136,339 U.A.E. 295,647 275,436 208,635 211,216 53,676 Oman. 45,085 42,362 27,202 28,391 10,336 Qatar. 9,706 11,592 20,993 19,327 7,421 Bahrain. 8,226 7,919 5,745 8,189 7,843 Malaysia. 10,625 7,174 9,881 11,323 2,296 Others 7,466 8,440 9,073 14,044 6,794 Total 839,353 496,286 382,439 625,203 224,705 Source: Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (Data of overseas employment is collected and recorded as per calendar year) 243
278. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 During 2020 , Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment has registered 224,705 for overseas employment as compared to emigrants 625,203 in 2019 showing a decrease of 400,498 people as compared to the last year. It is evident from the table 12.1that Saudi Arabia (KSA) is the main destination country for Pakistani emigrants where more than 60 percent of emigrants proceeded followed by UAE (24 percent) and Oman (4.6percent). Due to COVID-19 pandemic, overall a declining trend was observed in terms of emigrants registered in 2020 including GCC countries. Table 12.2: Pakistani Workers Registered for Overseas Employment During the period 2016-2020 Province Wise Year Federal Punjab Sindh Khyber BalocAzad N/Areas Tribal Total Pakhtun histan Kashmir Area -khwa 2016 8,472 446,566 85,326 206,929 6,378 43,093 2,961 39,628 839,353 2017 4,635 261,849 53,590 107,366 4,528 33,318 3,417 27,583 496,286 2018 2,471 185,902 41,551 88,361 2,930 33,028 2,760 25,436 382,439 2019 4,295 312,439 57,171 186,176 5,103 30,151 2,554 27,314 625,203 2020 1,814 118,818 16,950 68,299 1,869 7,685 244 9,026 224,705 Source: Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment The comparison among provinces in Table 12.2 shows that during 2020, the highest number of workers went abroad were 118,818 from Punjab, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 68,299. Regional Comparison of Manpower Export The COVID-19 pandemic hampered the manpower export not only from Pakistan but also from other regional countries. The graph given below illustrates that a total of 224,705 emigrants were registered for overseas employment from Pakistan in year 2020 as compared to 625,203 registered in 2019 which shows the decrease of 400,498 emigrants. Similarly, India and Bangladesh faced a decline of 273,093 and 482,490 respectively in terms of emigrants registered during 2020 as compared to 2019. Ministry of Overseas Pakistani & Human Resource Development (OP&HRD) has taken the following steps to boost the manpower export and to ensure regular emigration:   Task Force has been established in order to enhance manpower export and facilitation of Overseas Pakistanis. To boost manpower export, Ministry of OP&HRD signed 244 Fig-2: Regional Comparison of Manpower Export 800,000 700,000 700,159 625,203 600,000 500,000 368,048 400,000 300,000 224,705 200,000 217,669 94,145 100,000 0 Pakistan India Source: Labour Migration Report 2020 Bangladesh
279. Population , Labour Force and Employment bilateral Agreements/ MOUs with destination countries such as Turkey and Malaysia in 2020.  Ministry of OP&HRDis actively working to explore job opportunities for Pakistani workers in non-traditional countries. In this regard, a comprehensive dirversification strategy has been developed for top five priority countries i.e Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, Qatar & Oman along with other five potential/ non-traditional countries such as Kuwait, South Korea, Japan, Germany and China to promote the export of manpower to these countries.  To provide One-window facilitation services to intending emigrants, BE&OE deployed a project titled, “Registration of Intending Emigrants via Biometric Verification System linked with NADRA” through which protector registration procedure completion has been made possible in minimum time and is being implemented in all Protector of Emigrants Offices.  Campaign against illegal overseas job advertisements in close coordination with media, FIA, PTA and other relevant Departments. Moreover, in order to tighten enforcement and zero tolerance policy with respect to emigrants complaints, licenses of Overseas Employment Promoter are suspended, if found involved in breaking/violating the Emigration Ordinance/Rules 1979.  BE&OE started registration of foreign employers on its website so that the intending emigrants may be hired either directly or through OEPs by registered Employers depending upon their requirements.  Two new Protectorate Offices i.e., D.G Khan and Sialkot have been established. Two more Protectorate Offices i.e., Abbottabad and Sukkur, are expected to be established and functional in the second half of fiscal year 2020-21.  BE&OE created linkages between Overseas Employment Corportion (OEC) and NAVTTC for matching of available jobs at BE&OE official website and in this regard data of the trained job seekers maintained by NAVTTC.  OEC signed a cooperation Agreement with the Ministry of Health (MoH), Kuwait for supply of medical professionals. Resultantly, 404 medical professionals (doctors/ nurses/technicians) have joined their duties in various hospitals of Kuwait. Further recruitment of medical professional for Kuwait is under process. The cooperation between Pakistan and Kuwait in the field of employment has revived after a long time.  OEC convened a webinar on ‘potential of ICT Human Resource Export to Japan’ on 17thDecember 2020. All major stakeholders including Ministries of Overseas Pakistanis & HRD, Foreign Affairs & IT & Telecom, Embassy of Japan, Islamabad, Embassy of Pakistan, Tokyo, Ignite, Pakistan Software Export Board, NUML, NUTECH, Pakistan Japan Business Forum, Pakistan Software Houses Association, Pakistan Overseas Employment Promotors Association, Pakistan and Japan based IT companies and a large number of IT personnel attended the webinar. The webinar resulted in achieving following tangible outcomes. 245
280. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  ➢ Development of awareness among stakeholders regarding opportunities, requirements, modalities and procedures involved in ICT human resource export to Japan. ➢ Facilitation in developing business to business contacts and matchmaking between Information Technology Industries and Overseas Employment Promoters. ➢ Consensus of OEC and NUML to start online Japanese language classes for ICT overseas jobseekers. OEC convenes online and in-person Korean language classes for the facilitation of those candidates who are interested to go to Korea for employment purpose. 375 students were enrolled for the said classes from July to December 2020.  A portal was launched on 9thJune 2020 for registration of returning workers. Since the pandemic hit, 93,078 (9th June 2020 to 5th April 2021) returned workers have been registered with the Overseas Employment Corporation (OEC) portal.  To tackle the situation emerged due to COVID-19 pandemic, BE&OE developed a comprehensive reintegration strategy for returned migrant workers to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on labor migration and suggested a plan which includes registration of returnee workers profile by OEC, so that they can be contacted if any job arises matching their credentials.  14,176 jobseekers have registered themselves on OEC Online Job Portal for Overseas Employment and Reintegration from July to March 2021. The portal provides one-step solution to overseas jobseekers, Overseas Employment Promoters and foreign employers.  To facilitate Pakistani emigrant going abroad, an initiative 'Worker's Foree Remittance Account' with a full feature bank account available in current and profit and loss sharing-saving accounts were inaugurated at all 09 Protectorate Offices across Pakistan. Women Empowerment Women are 48 percent of the population and the potential of Pakistan. However, the status of women in Pakistan is not homogenous because of the interconnection of gender with other forms of exclusion in society. There is considerable diversity in the status of women across classes, regions and the rural/urban divide due to uneven socio-economic development and the impact of tribal, feudal and capitalist social formations of women’s lives. The Government has been fully cognizant of its constitutional responsibilities for protecting the rights of the women and realizing their full potential in all spheres of life, especially social, economic, political and personal. In 2020-21 the government introduced several interventions to improve gender governance through financial empowerment of women and expansion of social protection net to encompass needs of women in the most vulnerable groups of population and curb gender-based violence. 246
281. Population , Labour Force and Employment Initiatives under Ehsaas Strategy: ➢ Ehsaas Interest-Free Loan Initiative. The Rs 42.65 billion programme involves 100 districts across the country and will impact 16.28 million people. 50 percent of the loan recipients are women. During April, 2021 Rs 1271.66 million interest-free loans have been given to 38,119 borrowers and out of these 20,370 borrowers are women. ➢ Ehsaas Amdan (Income) Programme. The key objective of this programme is to create opportunities for the most disadvantaged people through the transfer of small income-generating assets. The programme is launched in 375 rural union councils of 23 districts across Pakistan. The total budget of the programme is Rs. 15 billion and it will transfer 200,000 productive assets to deserving households (60 percent women) overall impacting 1.4 million individuals countrywide. ➢ Ehsaas Kafaalat Program: Kafaalat is a new unconditional cash-transfer programme, that provides monthly payments of Rs. 2,000 through saving bank accounts and improved access to mobile phones for seven million disadvantaged women across the country. More than 5 million women have been included in the programme. ➢ Ehsaas Nashonuma Program: The nutrition conditional cash transfer programme utilizing special nutrition food for mothers and children to address stunting, was launched. This programme is being rolled out after extensive spadework in 33 centers in 9 of the poorest districts and is been executed in collaboration with the World Food Programme. Eligible Pregnant and lactating Women (PLW) and children less than 2 years of age will receive specialized nutritional food and quarterly cash stipends of Rs. 1,500 for PLWs for boy child and Rs. 2,000 for the girl child. In addition, immunization, awareness sessions and antenatal and postnatal care are also part of the Ehsaas Nashonuma. ➢ Waseela-e-Taleem: This conditional cash transfer programme which has been ongoing for the last 8 years, currently in 50 districts has undergone a massive reform with technology. All institutional arrangements have been made to expand Waseela-eTaleem Plus, nationwide to 148 districts and 4 million primary school going children will benefit from this. The stipend for girls has been increased to Rs. 2,000 per quarter whereas the stipend for boys has been increased to Rs. 1,500 per quarter. Box-II: Empower Women-Initiatives a) SBP has developed a “Banking on Equality: Policy to Reduce the Gender Gap in Financial Inclusion”. It aims to introduce a gender lens within the financial sector through identified pillars and specific measures, to bring a shift towards women friendly business practices. b) To encourage women participation in the economy, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has enhanced the financing limit under its Refinance and Credit Guarantee Scheme for Women Entrepreneurs from Rs 1.5 million to Rs. 5 million. The objective of this enhancement in financing limit is to increase financial inclusion of women since more women entrepreneurs are likely to be attracted for setting 247
282. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 up of new businesses or for expanding the scope of their existing businesses by availing concessional financing . c) Pakistan has significantly improved its score on entrepreneurship indicator of Woman, Business and the Law (WBL) index, from 50 to 75 points, as per WBL Report 2021 d) The following legislations have been promulgated during 2020-21 for empowerment of women: (i) Zainab Alert, Response & Recovery Act, 2020 (ii) The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Domestic Violence Against Women (Prevention & Protection), Act 2021 (iii) ICT Rights of Persons with Disabilities Act, 2020 Source: State Bank of Pakistan (ii) M/o Planning, Development & SPI Women Income Generation and Self-reliance Programme (WINGS) Punjab Social Protection Authority (PSPA) in collaboration with the Department for International Development (DFID), UK has designed Women’s Income Growth and Selfreliance (WINGS) Programme. The WINGS will be funded through DFID grant of £36 million that includes £28.5 million grant for financial assistance component along with £7.5 million for technical assistance component. The total project cost is £35.7 million that includes £28.5 million of DFID grant and £7.2 million counterpart funding by Government of the Punjab. The Project envisages the productive inclusion and economic empowerment of women and will support transition of 63,000 extremely poor women from social protection to sustainable livelihoods, prosperity and self-reliance in the Punjab province. It will partner with the Government of Punjab to develop governmentled delivery channels and policy reforms for enabling the women relying on social safety nets to engage in income-generating activities, accumulate productive assets, have support to access social and financial services and exit extreme poverty for good. Punjab Human Capital Investment Project Punjab Human Capital Investment Project is being launched by Punjab Social Protection Authority which will target the problem right from the early stages of life cycle. The World Bank will provide USD 200 million for this project. The main objective of Punjab Human Capital Investment Project (PHCIP) is to increase the access to quality health services, economic and social inclusion of the poor and vulnerable households in selected districts in Punjab. Under this project, three main activities will be performed which are as under: Health Services Quality and Utilization: Conditional Cash Transfer Health & Nutrition is based on the first 1,000 days (i.e. the period from conception to two years of age) approach to address malnutrition. Under this component, poor pregnant and lactating women will be incentivized through cash transfers to increase utilization of Health Nutrition and Population (HNP) services (pre- and post- natal care, skilled birth, growth monitoring, immunization, HNP awareness and counseling). Economic and Social Inclusion: Productive inclusion of adolescents and youth will be enhanced by providing education, skills, micro-financing and asset transfer. 248
283. Population , Labour Force and Employment Additionally, interventions for early childhood education will also be part of this component. Social Protection Service Delivery Platform: Capacity of Punjab Social Protection Authority to deliver social protection services will be enhanced. PSPA’s current structure and capacity needs considerable beefing-up to enable it to deliver effectively as premier provincial social protection authority. This component is aimed at addressing the current institutional, technology and resource gaps of PSPA and establishing a robust social protection delivery platform. The existing PSPA beneficiary database and program dashboards would be strengthened to keep track of major initiatives and beneficiaries’ information in Punjab. Zewar-e-Taleem Program Punjab Social Protection Authority launched Zewar-e-Taleem Program which is the conditional cash transfer to the girl students enrolled in public sector schools in 16 districts with low literacy rate. Over 571,313 girls are receiving Rs.1,000/- per month on compliance to 80 percent attendance requirement in schools. The purpose of this initiative was to improve enrolment and retention in schools, besides addressing their nutritional requirements, essential for adolescent girls. Students enrolled in grade 10 are automatically excluded from the Program upon completion of the academic session. The students dropped out of schools are also excluded from the Programme. Nayee Zindgi Program Punjab Social Protection Authority under “Punjab Ehsaas Program” has launched “Nayee Zindagi Program” for Acid Attack Victims. The Program aims at rehabilitation of Acid Attack victims through reconstructive surgeries and psychological counselling for their socio-economic mainstreaming. These services will be provided by Specialized Healthcare & Medical Education Department. Empowering Acid Attacks Victims through an institutional arrangement in various fields can be a very significant step towards mainstreaming their socio-economic conditions. With the help of Rs. 200 million, the victims of the heinous crime of throwing acid will be financially assisted and fully rehabilitated at the government’s expense, including the skin grafting treatment followed by skill-building and interest-free loans for livelihood support. Sarparast Program for Poor Widows & Orphans: Punjab Social Protection Authority initiated “Sarparast Program”, a social assistance, financial support to the families of the poor and vulnerable widows for improving their wellbeing and social status. It also addresses the cross-cutting objective of Ehsaas Strategy that is lift lagging areas. Sarparast program will provide dignified social assistance specially designed for the poor widows of Punjab. With an initial outlay of Rs 2 billion, Sarparast Programme for assisting poor widows and orphans will be a key feature of Punjab’s Ehsas Programme. 249
284. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Punjab Day Care Fund Society Punjab Day Care Fund Society (PDCF) was registered under the society Act for provision of grants to interested organization for establishment of Punjab Day Care Facility. Under the programme, 115 Day Care Centers have been finalized and efforts are underway to execute the facility further. Helpline – 1099 for Legal Advice on Human Rights Violations Ministry of Human Rights has established Helpline – 1099 for legal advice on human rights violation with special emphasis on the rights of women. The Helpline is working with the objective of addressing the issues of human rights violations through legal advice, grievance-redressal mechanism through referral services to the victims of human rights violations. Helpline – 1043 The Punjab Women’s Toll-Free Helpline 1043 is available 24/7. Managed and supervised by Punjab Commission on the Status of Women, helpline team comprises allwomen call agents, three legal advisors, supervisors and management staff to address inquiries and complaints on workplace harassment, gender discrimination, property disputes and inheritance rights, domestic violence, hostels, day-care centres and other facilities for working women, quota for women in public sector jobs, skill development opportunities and various other economic and social issues. BOLO Helpline 0800-22227 BOLO Helpline 0800-22227 is established at Provincial level for the victims of Gender Based Violence (GBV) and persons with disabilities at Directorate of Social Welfare and Women Empowerment, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The pilot phase of Programme is accessible in Districts of Peshawar, Mardan, Swat, Nowshera, Swabi and Abbottabad with the objective to ensure convenience and accessibility of services to survivors of gender-based violence, extend program outreach to improve GBV response services and provides GBV survivors with essential support and develop a database of victims and allow department to work out future plans for GBV programming and track response mechanism. COVID-19 Impact on Family Planning Services: Global crisis of COVID-19 pandemic had profound impact on health, social systems and economies. During such emergencies human and financial resources are diverted from essential health programmes to respond to the disease outbreak, meaning that there can be potential rise in maternal and new-born mortality and morbidity, increased number of unintended pregnancies and gender-based violence. Recent evidence shows that service provision for skilled birth deliveries, Family Planning (FP) services and other reproductive health needs were disrupted leading to increased risks of maternal morbidity, deaths, poor neonatal outcomes, higher unmet need and discontinuation of 250
285. Population , Labour Force and Employment FP methoeds.2 PSDP Allocation (2020-21) on Population Welfare Programme Federal government has allocated Rs.185.74 million for Population Welfare Programme of Special Areas (AJK & GB). Detail of PSDP allocation and cost of population welfare programmes for the year 2020-21 is as follows: PSDP Projects 2020-21 Sr. No Project Allocation 1 Population Welfare Programme, AJK 20.00 2 Population Welfare Programme, GB 165.749 Source: Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives (Rs in million) Release Status (July-April FY2021) 16.00 132.599 Family Planning Initiatives Country Engagement Working Group (CEWG) Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations & Coordination has constituted CEWG with its members from the concerned Federal & Provincial Government Departments, CSOs and Development Partners. The CEWG is mandated to review the progress of Federal and Provincial Departments and CSOs regarding FP2020 targets Pakistan committed at FP2020 London Summit, 2012. Recently, in an international event “FP2020 celebrating progress, transforming for future”, held on 26th January 2021, partners from around the world once again committed and pledged to move forward the FP agenda by 2030. Revision and Updating of Curriculum for RTIs The Regional Training Institutes (RTIs), all over Pakistan, are responsible for capacity building of the Health personnel for providing family planning/reproductive health services to the communities. The Training Curriculum used by the RTIs has been revised and updated with technical assistance from WHO. Consultative Meeting on Population and Development Four Consultative meetings on Population and Development have been organized by the Planning Commission with the provincial government under the chairmanship of Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, to address the high population growth challenge and to put the population development and family planning agenda in the country on fast track. Population Situation Analysis (PSA) 2020 Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives conducted a comprehensive analysis of the situation in the population and development in collaboration with the United Nation Population Fund (UNFPA) Pakistan, in order to provide the basis for an integrated appraisal of the population dynamics and their linkages and impacts on 2 Pakistan Situation Analysis 2020 251
286. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 poverty , inequality and development. The PSA, 2020 has assessed the current situation and proposed recommendations for strategic actions to address issues in the areas of population and development, reproductive health, youth, gender, in addition to women empowerment. The PSA has identified and proposed priority areas as well as formulation of relevant public policy for interventions to address population and development issues in the forthcoming development plans and strategies. Summary of FP Initiatives undertaken by Provincial Population Welfare Departments (PWDs) during 2020-21 Punjab  Establishment of Strategic Planning Unit  Construction of Regional Training Institute, Faisalabad & Sahiwal  Expansion of Family Welfare Centres and Introduction of Community Based Family Planning Workers (CBFPWs)  E-Registration of Eligible Couples / Clients  Franchising of Clinical Services – Phase-II  Support innovative ideas of private sector through Punjab Population Innovation Fund Sindh  Functional Integration of Health & Population Welfare Departments  Joint platform for all partners Department for Population & Health along with their allied programs i.e., People's Primary Health Initiatives (PPHI), LHW’s and Maternal Neonatal and Child Health (MNCH), Planning and Development Board, Finance, Education, Women Development, Information, Youth Affairs, INGOs and Academia.  Declaration of 300 Private Hospitals PWD supported facilities Reproductive Health Services (RHS-B) centres  Sindh Reproductive HealthCare Rights Act, 2019 and Marital Counseling and Registration of Nikah Bill are at final stages  Life Skill Based Education (LSBE) has been included in the curriculum of secondary and high school  Joint Procurement of Contraceptives by PWD Sindh for all stakeholders Khyber Pakhtunkhwa  Promulgation of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Reproductive HealthCare Rights Act, 2020  Included topic of “Population Dynamics of Pakistan” in various courses of 18 out of 30 universities.  Expansion of Population Welfare Programme through establishment of 200 new Family Welfare Centres  Pre-marital counselling has been piloted in two districts, Haripur and Kohat. 252
287. Population , Labour Force and Employment  Advocacy and Communication Strategy launched by the department.  All service delivery outlets have been strengthened through providing clinical and furniture items. Balochistan  Functional integration between Health and Population departments.  The first Provincial Taskforce meeting held on 13th December 2019 under the chair of Provincial Minister for Population Welfare Department.  Letter of Understanding (LOU) signed with PPHI to involve their Basic Health Units in FP service delivery network  Completed contraceptive forecasting at provincial level for meeting the need of Department of Health, Population Welfare and PPHI including private sector  Initiated the process of registration of all such Private practitioners who are willing to offer FP services.  The Early Child Marriage Restraint Act prepared by Social Welfare Department has been submitted in the Provincial Cabinet for approval.  Larger focus on behavioural change communication campaigns  Consultation is in progress for including Life Skills Based Education and Population Studies in Secondary and Higher Secondary Schools curriculum Conclusion Pakistan is the fifth most populous country with an estimated population of 215.25 million in 2020 out of which 61 percent population is in the age bracket of 15-64 years. The country has limited resources and its increasing population is putting more pressure on these resources. The government is trying to overcome the issue of high population growth and fertility rate through different programs like media campaign, establishment of Family Welfare Centers (FWCs), Reproductive Health Services Centers (RHSCs), Regional Training Institutes and Mobile Services Unit. An educated and skilled youth is needed to reap the benefits of demographic dividend. If this demographic dividend is harnessed and skilled to meet domestic and international market requirements, the youth bulge would yield increased industrial productivity and higher foreign remittances. For this reason, the government has given priorities to the education and skills of the youth for their productive employment. For this purpose, the government has launched "Skills for All" and “Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme” for the youth. These programmes for skills training, employment, entrepreneurship and engagement will play an important role in the socio-economic development of the country. 253
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289. Chapter 13 Transport and Communications Transport has an indispensable role in economic activity . Without physical access to resources and markets, economic growth and development would not be possible. An effective transport system is, therefore, a fundamental element in enabling sustainable economic development as it helps in promoting the use of natural resources, mobility of labor force and increasing agricultural and industrial production. Transport is also essential for providing access to supply chains and basic public services such as health and education. Removal of physical and non-physical barriers to effective transportation, therefore, has a direct impact on economic and social development of a country. Besides its role in economic development, modern and effective transport infrastructure and services, enabling smooth flow of goods and services within and across international borders, is key for strengthening regional economic cooperation and integration. Pakistan is at a unique geo-strategic location, offering both opportunities and challenges. The opportunities can only be realized by exploring and developing the critical land, coastal and air routes that this location offers. Pakistan can serve as the most effective, economical and viable transit route to the land locked Central Asia and other neighboring countries. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with its roads and railways network, will integrate Pakistan with all regional countries and generate much needed economic activity. The Corridor will be a strategic game changer and would go a long way in strengthening our economy. Modes of Transportation Users of the transport network have a wider range of modes to choose from, however, most common and extensively used at present would be highlighted below: Air Linkage Performance of the Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (PIAC) Table 13.1: PIAC Performance Indicators Units PIAC Fleet No. of Planes Route Km Available Seat Million Km Passenger Load Factor Percent Revenue Flown 000 Km Revenue Hours Flown Hours 2017 36 360,937 19,108 73.20 75,207 122,081 2018 2019 2020 32 332,303 18,081 77.3 70,089 110,050 32 389,725 18,372 81.3 70,515 110,640 30 778,609 8,902 74.5 38,114 58,519
290. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 13 .1: PIAC Performance Indicators Units 2017 2018 Revenue Passengers Carried 000 nos. 5,342 5,203 Revenue Passengers Million Km 13,988 13,975 Revenue Load Factor Percent 55.2 58.4 Operating Revenue ** Rs million 100,051 Operating Expenses ** Rs million 170,447 PIAC financial year is based on calendar year. **Revenue & Cost is based on provisional/estimated & un-audited accounts Source: Pakistan International Airlines 2019 5,290 14,938 58.6 146,097 160,037 2020 2,541 6,629 51.3 94,683 102,912 PIAC has taken following measures to revamp its operations during the current FY 2021:                Due to COVID-19, the scheduled flight operations to most of the parts of the country and the globe remained suspended. PIAC revenues, approximately PKR 82.6 billion, stood short of the target. It, however, operated special flights to facilitate stranded Pakistanis abroad. Enhancement of ancillary revenues through bulkhead seats, pre-allocation of seats, advance excess baggage etc. Network optimization e.g. code share alliances to expand network Focus on enhancement of cargo and charter operations Focus on capacity rationalization for better utilization Improvement in customer services via punctuality and regularity of flights, aircraft cleanliness and food quality Better governance and focus on discipline: o Action against employees with disciplinary issues o Plugging in loop holes by better internal controls Improvement in air-crew flight rosters Enhancing brand perception Reconciling and rescheduling loans Strict discipline and accountability regime including a Time Management System Centralized medical center for all PIAC employees leading to cost savings Increasing Maximum Take Off weight limitation on A-320 aircraft, thereby increasing payload carrying capacity Restructuring through Voluntary Separation Scheme (VSS) Reducing salaries for 6 months with a resultant saving of Rs 770 million Road Linkage National Highway Authority (NHA) NHA is committed to provide a safe, modern and efficient transportation system. Pakistan is bisected into two halves by the River Indus. The eastern segment is historically well developed. To bring the western segment at par with the eastern one, NHA is improving east-west connectivity through construction of numerous bridges across river Indus as well as across the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers. The 256
291. Transport and Communications eastern and western parts will be further augmented with major projects like KarachiLahore Motorway , Multan-Sukkur Motorway and Hakla-D.I.Khan Motorway under the China Pak Economic Corridor. Development Programme: The present NHA network comprises of 39 national highways, motorways, expressways and strategic roads. The length of this network is 12,131 km. NHA’s existing portfolio consists of 32 on-going projects with an allocation of Rs 88,954.855 million in PSDP 2020-21. Of this amount, Rs 10,750.00 million is FEC component and Rs 78,204.855 million is the local component. There are 24 new schemes in PSDP 2020-21 with a total estimated cost of Rs 520,077.996 million. In addition to these, one new scheme on BOT basis is also included in PSDP 2020-21 at an estimated cost of Rs 1,122.782 million. China Pakistan Economic Corridor: To ensure smooth and efficient movement of goods and passengers, Government of Pakistan plans to develop China Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) connecting Khunjrab to Gwadar. Details of completed and ongoing CPEC projects are as under: Table 13.2: Details of completed CPEC projects Sr. # Name of Project 1 Construction of Burhan-Havelian (E-35) 2 Construction of KKH Phase-II, Havelian-Thakot 3 Construction of Sukkur-Multan M-5 Source: National Highway Authority Cost (Rs mn) 34,165 Length (Km) 57 136,659 118 298,008 392 Table 13.3: Details of major ongoing CPEC projects Sr. # Name of Project 1 Construction of Motorway from BurhanHakla on M-1 to Dera Ismail Khan 2 Construction of 02 Lane Highway from Basima to Khuzdar Source: National Highway Authority Cost (Rs mn) 110,208.00 (PC-I Cost) 19,188.44 Date of Completion Packages I and II: Dec 2017 Package-III: Nov 2019 Feb 2020 (Inaugurated on 28th Jul 2020) Aug 2019 Length (Km) 293 Date of Completion Jun 2021 106 Oct 2021 Cost (Rs million) 76,486.23 Length (Kms) 210 63,081.00 165,679.20 - 305 306 369 25,835.89 146 Table 13.4: Details of future CPEC projects Sr. # 1 2 3 4 5 Name of Project Dualization of Yarik – Sagu – Zhob including Zhob Bypass Western Route Zhob to Kuchlak Road CPEC Western Corridor Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway (M-6) Gilgit-Shandor-Chitral Road Project (alternate route to KKH under CPEC) Construction of Hoshab- Awaran Section of M-8 (146 km) 257
292. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 13 .4: Details of future CPEC projects Sr. # Name of Project 6 Construction of Awaran – Naal Section of M-8 (168 Km) 7 KKH Thakot-Raikot Section (realignment) 8 Mangla – Mirpur – Muzaffarabad - Mansehra Source: National Highway Authority Cost (Rs million) 32,504 310,578 Length (Kms) 168 250 200.45 Support of Development Partners i) Asian Development Bank Assistance:  Construction of Gojra-Khanewal Motorway (M-4) (126 km)  Post Flood National Highways and Rehabilitation Project  Burhan-Havelian Expressway (E-35) (59 km)  Zhob-Mughalkot Section of N-50 Qilla Saifullah-Waigum Road Section of N-70, 124 km  CAREC Corridor Development Investment Programme (Tranche-I)  Construction of additional carriageway Petaro-Sehwan Section of N-55 (128 km)  Rehabilitation of Peshawar-Dara Adam Khel of N-55 (36 km)  Construction of additional carriageway Shikarpur-Ratodero of N-55 (44 km)  CAREC Corridor Development Investment Programme (Tranche-II)  Construction of additional carriageway Shikarpur-Rajanpur Section of N-55 (222 km)  CAREC Corridor Development Investment Programme (Tranche-III)  Construction of 4-lane highway Rajanpur-D.G. Khan (121.50 km)  Construction of additional carriageway Dera Ghazi Khan-Dera Ismail Khan Section of N-55 (208.19 km) ii) Korean Exim Bank Assistance:   Improvement and Widening of Chakdara-Chitral Section of N-45(141 km) Malakand Tunnel (Construction of 9.7 Km Malakand Tunnel Project is ongoing to provide a short route for the people of Malakand, Upper Dir, Lower Dir and Swat. Malakand Pass lies between Dargai-Batkhela) iii) World Bank: Khyber Pass Economic Corridor (KPEC) consists of two components as follows:   Component-I (102.55 km): Peshawar-Torkham Motorway Project having a length of 47.55 km and link road connecting Motorway to Badabher (N-55) intersecting N-5 between Chamkani and Jhagra (approx. 55 km) Component-II: Economic development and uplift of areas adjacent to the Motorway Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) and Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Projects Following projects are in pipeline under Public Private Partnership (PPP)/BuiltOperate-Transfer (BOT) basis: 258
293. Transport and Communications Table 13 .5: Projects in pipeline under (PPP)/ (BOT) arrangement Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Name of Project Hyderabad-Sukkur Motorway (M-2) Dualization & Rehabilitation of Karachi-Quetta-Chaman Road (N-25) Dualization & Rehabilitation of Balkasar-Mianwali Road Dualization & Rehabilitation of Mianwali-Muzaffargarh Road Construction of Shahdara Flyover Construction of Lyari elevated Freight Corridor Construction of Sialkot-Kharian Motorway Construction of Kharian-Rawalpindi Motorway Construction of Bara Kahu Flyover Length (km) 306 790 129 286 7 20 70 115 3.6 Source: National Highway Authority Achievements/Performance of NHA during the year 2020-21 i. Construction of Burhan-Havelian Expressway (E-35) 29.1 km (revised) ii. Construction of Faisalabad-Khanewal Motorway (M-4) 184 km iii. Construction of roads network for Islamabad International Airport, main link, Thalian link & periphery road (26 km) iv. Karachi-Hyderabad M-9 (134.5 km) v. Construction of KKH Phase-II Havelian-Thakot (118.057 km) (CPEC) Maritime Linkage Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) PNSC Group has made significant progress in bulk and liquid cargo segments. Despite the pandemic, the Group has managed to achieve a profit of Rs 1,235 million as against Rs 1,411 million in the corresponding period last year. The turnover stands at Rs 9,633 million compared to Rs 9,621 million for the previous year’s corresponding period. Revenue of the tanker segment, including foreign charters, grew by 7.12 percent from Rs 6,195 million to Rs 6,635 million. Slot chartering revenue increased by 19.64 percent from Rs 704 million to Rs 842 million. The increase in revenues reflects the growth in operational activity of the Group. The net profitability was, however, adversely affected due to decline in AFRA by 26 percent, reduction in gross margins of slot business by 11 percent and adverse movement of USD versus PKR which resulted in exchange losses of Rs 87 million in the period under review as against exchange gains of Rs 54 million in nine months period ended March 31, 2020. At present, PNSC fleet comprises of 11 vessels of various types/sizes (05 Bulk carriers,04 Aframax tankers and 02 LR-1 Clean Product tankers) with a total deadweight capacity (cargo carrying capacity) of 831,711 metric tons, the highest ever carrying capacity since inception of PNSC. 259
294. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Commercial and Financial Performance : PNSC’s commercial and financial performance (un-audited) covering nine months activities from 1st July 2020 to 31st March 2021 is given in tables 13.6 and 13.7: Table 13.6: PNSC Commercial Performance FY2020 (July-March) Tanker Chartering Liquid Cargo (MT) Dry Cargo (MT) FY2021 (July-March) SLOT Consolidated TEUs Slot BB/LCL 5,460,630 1,372,713 1,329 5,476 7,333,100 1,239,685 1,363 5,958 Source: Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) Table 13.7: PNSC Financial Performance S. No. (Rs ’000) Financial Performance July-March FY2020 July-March FY2021 1 Revenue 9,621,477 9,632,731 2 Expenses 6,454,630 7,388,157 3 Gross Profit/(Loss) 3,166,847 2,244,574 4 Administrative, Impairment & Other Expenses 2,331,640 1,108,806 5 Other Income 694,810 654,062 6 Profit before Taxation 1,530,017 1,362,715 Source: Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) Karachi Port Trust Karachi Port Trust managed a total cargo and container volume of 39.424.155 million tonnes during July-March FY2021 (Table 13.8). It experienced 21 percent increase in total cargo and container handling over the previous year. While export cargo and container volume grew by 3 percent in FY2021, imports increased by 31 percent over the same period last year. Table 13.8: Cargo & Container Handling at Karachi Port Fiscal Year Imports 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 (July-March) 2019-20 2020-21 Source: Karachi Port Trust 260 Exports Total 34,594 42,638 41,669 32,863 27,206 15,451 9,855 13,016 14,031 14,634 50,045 52,493 54,685 46,893 41,840 Imports 23 -2 -21 -17 21,076 27,546 11,527 11,878 32,603 39,424 -16 31 (000 tonnes) %Change Exports Total -36 5 32 4 8 -14 4 -11 11 3 -8 21
295. Transport and Communications 60 ,000 Fig 13.1: Cargo & Container Handling at KPT (000 tonnes) Imports 50,000 Exports Total 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 2019-20 (Jul-Mar) 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 0 Port Qasim Authority Port Qasim handled a total cargo volume of 43.006 million tonnes during the first nine months of FY2021. Out of this, 37.255 million tonnes were imported while 5.575 million tonnes was exported. Fig 13.2: Year-wise statistics of Port Qasim Authority (Million Tonnes) 60 Total 50 Import Export 40 30 20 10 0 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) Total 25.775 30.014 33.032 37.358 45.555 49.031 51.017 43.006 Import 18.076 21.608 25.587 30.995 38.471 41.878 43.509 37.255 Export 7.699 8.405 7.464 6.363 7.084 7.153 7.508 5.575 Gwadar Port Gwadar Port is located on the shores of the Arabian Sea in Balochistan. It is about 630 km away from Karachi and 120 km from the Iranian border. It is strategically located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, just adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping route in and out of the Persian Gulf. Gwadar Port is in the process of becoming the Gateway Port for Pakistan as well as for the region. It is the first Deep Sea Port of the country, complementing and supplementing the other two vibrant ports i.e Karachi Port and Port Qasim. Its development is critical to stimulate the economic growth of Balochistan in particular and Pakistan in general as 261
296. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 it will provide an outlet for land-locked Central Asian Republics (CARs), Western China and Afghanistan. Port Operations and Renovation: In May 2013, the port’s Concessional Rights were transferred to a new operator, China Overseas Ports Holding Company Limited (COPHCL), which has been working on improving port facilities and businesses and the surrounding environment. It has invested over $ 40 million for upgrading the port facilities which is now fully operational and receiving commercial vessels on regular basis. The WeBOC (Web based One Customs) system is operational since 2019 and is playing a significant role in early and efficient clearing of cargo. For operationalization of the Gwadar Port, Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) has started developing the first Free Zone of Pakistan (spread over 9.5 sq. km area) in collaboration with COPHCL. Work on Phase-I (Southern Free Zone) is near completion. The project, completed in record time, will help to increase the port’s throughput. The Federal Government has provided tax incentives for the Gwadar Port Free Zone. Gwadar Expos were successfully held in the Free Zone in 2018 and 2019 and similar activity is in plans every year. Gwadar Port Free Zone  The construction of Free Zone Phase-I has been completed with all infrastructures, including power, water, road, telecommunication, waste treatment and drainage systems in operation now. More than 30 enterprises, in the areas of financial services, hotels, warehouses, fishery products processing, edible oil processing, pipe industry, furniture manufacturing, electric vehicles assembly, trade and logistics, have already been registered in the Free Zone.  Following companies have completed construction and one has started operations:  o China Communication Construction Company (Business Center) o Linyi Trade City (Exhibition Center) o Yulin Company (Steel Tube Industry) o HK Sun (Copper and Metal Recycling Factory) Work on the main Free Zone on 2,281 acres of land will start soon for which COPHCL has completed the master plan and feasibility work. Port Operations The Chinese Operator is working on increasing the number of ships calling at the port. Two ship-liners (COSCO & Sino-Trans) are calling regularly at the port since March 2018. Weekly container service has also been started by COSCO. The details of cargo handled so for, is reflected in the following figure: 262
297. Transport and Communications Fig 13 .3: Gwadar Port (000 tonnes) 90 80.4 Imports Exports 82.3 Total 80 70 60 50.6 51.4 50.9 54.7 50 40 24.1 30 26.8 26.6 27.3 20 10 9.5 10.0 0.8 1.9 2.7 3.6 1.3 5.0 0.7 0.5 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 Jul-Mar 3.8 0 2020-21 Jul-Mar China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Gwadar Port and City In 2013-14, Pakistan and China agreed to a long-term bilateral trade and economic corridor programme, i.e. CPEC. The GPA has been part of the planning and appraisal processes of CPEC. For the early harvest/prioritized phase, following projects, which are now at different stages of implementation, were agreed between the two sides: a. Construction of East-Bay Expressway b. Pak-China Technical & Vocational Institute Construction of East Bay Expressway The 19 km 6 lane Eastbay Expressway, a flagship project of CPEC, will connect Gwadar Port and its Free Zone with M-8 and Makran Coastal Highway. 14.7 km of the road is onshore while 4.3 km will be offshore. It will be a limited access high speed road meant for the use of heavy traffic fulfilling the cargo needs of the port. With 85 percent of the work already complete, the Expressway is expected to be fully operational by FY2022 Pak-China Technical & Vocational Institute The project aims to improve the technical skills of the local population to fulfil the needs of Port Operations, Gwadar Port Free Zone, Export Processing Zone and other industrial and allied activities like tourism, hotel industry, hospitality management etc. Implementation agreement of the project was signed on 29th March, 2019 during Gwadar Expo 2019 with the Prime Minister of Pakistan witnessing the signing ceremony. The detailed design was reviewed and approved in June 2019 and construction started in December 2019. Rapid work is ongoing with physical progress at 84 percent and completion is expected by December 2021. Development & Construction of Port Allied Structures - (GPA Business Complex) Construction of commercial structures on 69 acres of land have been completed for port related businesses like Bank Branches, Stevedores, Agency Offices, Cargo Storage Sheds, 263
298. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Marine Repair Workshop etc . to facilitate investors as well as for revenue generation. Outsourcing of the above area is in process and some of the facilities have already been rented out. On-Going PSDP Projects Following projects are in progress under the Federal PSDP and are expected to be completed in different dates: Table 13.9: On-Going PSDP Projects (Rs million) Total Project Cost 191.200 Sr. No. Name of project 1 Feasibility Study Construction of Breakwaters 2 Acquisition of Mobile Cranes & Fork Lifters for Gwadar Port 99.728 3 Equipment for Safety of Navigation 11.970 4 Supply, Installation and Commissioning of Floating Jetty at Gwadar Port 40.350 5 Acquisition of Marine Services Vessel for Gwadar Port 319.300 6 Feasibility Study of Capital Dredging of Berthing areas & channel for Additional Terminals 148.000 7 Up gradation of Berthing Facilities for Boats at Gwadar Mini port 134.775 Source: Gwadar Port Authority Railways Linkage Pakistan Railways (PR) is a major mode of transport in the public sector, contributing to the country’s economic growth and providing national integration. Pakistan Railways comprises of a total of 466 locomotives (461 Diesel Engine and 05 Steam Engines) for the 7,791 km route length. During the first eight months of FY2021, gross earnings have been recorded at Rs 30,966.11 million. Gross Earning (Rs. Million) Freight TonnesKms (Million) Fig 13.4: Passsenger and Freight Traffic 57000 52000 9000 8000 47000 7000 42000 6000 37000 5000 32000 4000 27000 22000 3000 2014- 15 264 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (July-Feb) (July-Feb) (July-Feb)
299. Transport and Communications Table 13 .10: Earning of Pakistan Railway Fiscal Year Earning % (Rs in Change million) 2009-10 21,886.00 2010-11 18,740.00 -14.4 2011-12 15,444.00 -17.6 2012-13 18,070.55 17.0 2013-14 22,800.22 26.2 2014-15 31,924.00 40.0 2015-16 36,581.87 14.6 2016-17 40,065.00 9.5 2017-18 49,569.68 23.7 2018-19 54,507.90 10.0 2019-20 47,584.00 -12.7 (July-February) 2019-20 36,916.85 -8.4 2020-21 30,966.11 -16.1 Source: Ministry of Railways Table 13.11: Passenger and Freight Traffic Subject (July-February) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Number of Passenger Carried (million) 39.90 39.40 18.11 Freight carried Tonnes (million) 5.33 5.30 5.25 Freight Tonnes Kms (million) 5,269.60 5,266.05 5,229.41 Gross Earning (Rs million) 34,066.10 36,916.85 30966.11 %Change -54.0 -0.9 -0.7 -16.1 Source: Ministry of Railways 9 Fig 13.6: Pessenger and Freight Traffic (Jul-Feb FY2021) % Change 8.4 8 7 (%Change) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -1.2 Number of Passenger Carried (Million) -0.6 Freight carried Tonnes (Million) -0.1 Freight TonnesKms (Million) Gross Earning (Rs. Million) Communication Information and Communication Technology Sector The dynamically evolving Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) hold critical importance for fueling the country’s economy by acting as a catalyst of change 265
300. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 and enablement across all other sectors . The Telecommunication market in Pakistan is open and deregulated, offering level playing field to operators. The sector was deregulated in 2003 after the promulgation of the De-Regulation policy. Resultantly, two new cellular mobile licenses were awarded to M/s Telenor and M/s Warid through open auction. Later on, China Mobile acquired Paktel and started providing mobile cellular services. In addition, multiple Long Distance & International (LDI) and Local Loop licenses were granted to local and international companies. Frequency spectrum was also auctioned to different companies for Wireless Local loop (WLL) operations. 1. Telecom Sector A. Policy Interventions i. Measures for introduction of 5G in Pakistan In line with the Policy Directive of the Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom and as per directions of the Prime Minister, a 5G roadmap with timelines has been developed in consultation with stakeholders. Additionally, an international consultant has also been hired through the World Bank for preparation of a comprehensive report on 5G readiness in the country. ii. National Cyber Security Policy (NCSP): Cyber Security is one of the highest priority areas of the government. Extensive efforts were undertaken to draft Pakistan’s first National Cyber Security Policy. The policy aims to develop secure and resilient cyber systems and networks for national cyber security and to protect private, public and critical infrastructure. It will be uploaded on the Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom’s website for consultations after requisite approvals have been accorded. iii. National Cloud Policy Draft Cloud computing offers a wide variety of potential benefits including reduced costs, improved responsiveness to citizens’ needs, increased transparency and enhanced public service delivery. The policy will, therefore, play an important role in the achievement of the targets set in the Digital Pakistan policy. It constitutes a tool in support of the efforts to promote mass adoption of emerging digital technologies and innovative applications to enable cross-sector socio-economic development and transformation of economic activities, governance models, social interaction and achievement of sustainable development goals. The first draft of National Cloud Policy, prepared in consultation with all relevant stakeholders, is currently being deliberated upon by the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecom. It will be put up for public consultation after the internal deliberation process is complete. Through this policy, the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecom aims to contribute to the government’s goal to promote eGovernance through IT enablement at all levels. 266
301. Transport and Communications iv . Right of Way Right of Way (RoW) is one of the major impediments towards the growth of the Telecommunication sector of Pakistan. Clause 27-A of the Pakistan Telecommunication (Re-organization) Act, 1996 (Amendment) 2006, as well as Section 7.1 of the Telecommunications Policy 2015 mandate the procurement of RoW as an inherent right of telecom licensees to build networks. Accordingly, the government is considering a policy directive drafted by Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom that has already been deliberated by all stakeholders. v. Local Manufacturing of SIMs/Smart Cards Evidence suggests that approximately 07 million SIM cards and 10,000 banking cards are being imported every month as the current import regime incentivizes such imports. A multi-stakeholder ‘Committee on Local Manufacturing of SIMs/Smart Cards’, constituted by the Prime Minister, is deliberating on the matter to save foreign exchange. vi. National Broadband Policy 2021 The Telecommunications Policy 2015 was subject to review after 05 years of its launch i.e. January 2021. With the support of the World Bank a comprehensive review of the Policy has been completed and a draft National Broadband Policy 2021 has been formulated keeping in view the global trends and emerging technologies. Once approved, the Policy will be uploaded on Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom’s website for consultation. B. Infrastructure Development in Unserved and Underserved Areas of the Country Through the Universal Service Fund (USF), Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom is committed to minimize the Information and Communication gap between rural and urban communities. Several projects are being designed to connect the unconnected in the unserved and underserved areas of the country. i. Broadband for Sustainable Development (BSD) Programme: It is a flagship programme to establish telecommunication infrastructure that provides coverage of Voice and Broadband Internet Services to unserved mauzas across the country. USF has launched various projects to provide telecommunication coverage to approximately 12,000 unserved mauzas with a population of around 15 million across all provinces of Pakistan. More than 8,364 unserved mauzas across the country have already been provided with coverage through USF. In the current Fiscal Year, 203 mauzas have been served by USF under previously running projects, whereas, Rs 46.97 million have been disbursed upon completion of different project milestones. ii. Next Generation – Broadband for Sustainable Development (BSD) Programme: BSD programme has now been transformed into NG-BSD programme which targets provision of enhanced Broadband Services (at minimum rate of 512 kbps) along with Voice Services to the unserved and underserved mauzas. Projects are gradually being launched in 108 districts approved by the Federal Government. 267
302. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Approximately 36 million un /underserved population in these districts will benefit from the programme. Till April 2021, 21 projects have been contracted targeting 8,545 un/undeserved mauzas in 41 districts having an approximate population of 18 million. In FY2021, contracts for 8 projects, worth approx. Rs 3.4 billion, have been awarded to provide NG-BSD services in the districts of Bolan, Gwadar, Ghotki, Khairpur, Sukkur, Jaffarabad, Ziarat, Malir, Karachi West, Mastung, Lower Dir, Upper Dir and Chitral. 2,292 un/underserved mauzas and 3.6 million population is being targeted. So far, 505 mauzas have been served in the current FY. iii. Next Generation BSD Programme for National Highways and Motorways (NH&MW): The programme targets unserved road segments of the National Highways and Motorways across the country. It is estimated that around 7,700 kms of routes are unserved. A salient feature of this programme is National Roaming that facilitates commuters to get seamless coverage irrespective of their originally subscribed networks. These will be first of their kind projects to offer such facility in Pakistan. In FY2021, USF has completed provision of NG-BSD services along 132 kms of un/underserved road segments and Rs 1.087 billion has been disbursed for NG-BSD Projects including NH&MW. iv. Optic Fiber Cable (OFC) Programme USF Optic Fiber Cable programme is concentrating on connecting the un-served Tehsil Headquarters (THQs) and major towns’ re-route. Till April, 2021, 8,184 km of OFC has been laid and 146 THQs/Towns have been provided with the connectivity. In current Fiscal Year, 238 kms of fibre has been laid connecting 11 THQs/towns whereas Rs 140 million has been disbursed. USF is working to deepen the Optic Fiber Footprint to un-served small towns/union councils. Two projects worth Rs 3.07 billion have been signed during FY2021, targeting 140 un-served towns/union councils in districts Ghotki, Kashmor, Sukkur and Khairpur. 2. Information Technology Sector Present Government’s incentives for IT industry include:        Zero income tax on IT exports till June 2025 Three-year tax holiday for Pakistan Software Export Board registered IT startups 100 percent equity ownership allowed to foreign investors 100 percent repatriation of capital and dividends allowed Tax holiday for venture capital funds till 2024 Accelerated depreciation of 30 percent on computer equipment Foreign currency account permitted for receipt of export remittances 268
303. Transport and Communications IT Exports & Remittances There has been a consistent growth in IT & IT-enabled Services (ITeS) remittances over the last 5 years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.85 percent, the highest growth rate in comparison with all other industries and the highest in the region. Micro enterprises, independent consultants and freelancers have contributed an estimated US$500 million in IT & ITeS exports. The annual domestic revenue exceeds US$1 billion. IT export remittances, including telecommunication, computer and information services have surged to US$1.298 billion at a growth rate of 41.39 percent during July-February FY2021, in comparison to US$918 million during the corresponding period of FY2019. ITeS export remittances comprising of computer services and call center services have surged to US$1.113 billion at a growth 41.65 percent during July-February FY2021 in comparison to US$785.686 million during July-February FY2020. The number of Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB) registered IT & ITeS companies as of 30th March, 2021 is 3,013 compared to 2,484 as of March, 2020 showing a growth of 21 percent. Pakistan’s IT sector has a promising future, brimming with talent and the potential to become the largest export industry of the country. IT industry is already among the top 5 net exporters of the country with the highest net exports in the services industries. Pakistan is the 5th most financially attractive location in the world for offshore services, according to A.T. Kearney’s Global Services Location Index. Pakistan is also ranked as the 4th most popular country for freelancing as per Global Gig Economy Index 2019. Infrastructure Development for IT Facilitation i. Establishment of Information Technology Parks The Software Technology Parks (STPs) are a major factor in facilitating IT companies and have a vital role in ensuring long term growth of the IT industry. STPs house IT companies and professionals act as software factories generating software and IT exports for the country. A new state of the art IT Park is being established in Islamabad with financing from the Korean Exim Bank through the Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF). It would have a covered area of more than 66,000 square meter and shall be a G+9 structure with two basements for parking. The park would provide office space to almost 120 ICT companies along with all latest ICT infrastructure facilities. Total land available is 14.9 acres. Cost estimates are US $ 88.747 million and the project is expected to be completed in 2023. In addition to the above, Ministry of IT & Telecom through PSEB, has signed an agreement worth US$186 million with the Korean Exim Bank for development of IT Park on 06 acres of land at Jinnah International Airport, Karachi. Main features of this project include a modern building having covered area of 106,000 square meters of providing office space, data center, incubation facility for startups and other facilities to IT industry. 269
304. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 ii . Establishment of Disaster Recovery Site for National Data Center (NDC) at Lahore: National Telecom Corporation being the sole ICT service provider for the Government is responsible to take care of the ICT needs of the Federal as well as Provincial Governments. NTC had established a state of the art Tier-III & ISO 27001 Certified National Data Center, at its Headquarters in Islamabad, to cater for growing ICT needs. As Government of Pakistan gears up for Digital Transformation of Pakistan under the Prime Minister’s Digital Pakistan vision, the need for secure, seamless and uninterrupted ICT services becomes of paramount importance. The National level E-Government platform running on National Data Center (NDC) at NTC is compliant with international standards. To further improve the availability and reliability, NTC has established a geographically distant Disaster Recovery Site at Lahore to overcome untoward scenarios in the face of natural calamities or emergencies. The Disaster Recovery Site, established with a cost of around Rs 600 million, adheres to international standards and best practices. 3. Legislative Measures for ICTS The Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom has re-initiated the process of formulating the country’s first Personal Data Protection Act. Views and feedback received from stakeholders were taken into consideration and the revised draft was uploaded on the Ministry’s website. It is being followed up for finalization. Peoples Development Programmes i. Digital Skills Training Programmes for Freelancing The Programme aims to increase: Number of individuals working as freelancers in the country Number of hours worked per freelancer Earnings per hour or per project for freelancers Household incomes Financial inclusion IT exports Number of experts in specialized skills        The number of trainings that Digi Skills Training Programme has conducted are over 1.5 million till April 2021. The trainees comprise 76 percent males and 24 percent females. The number of overseas Pakistanis trained in the Programme is around 15,000. ii. Capacity Building of IT Industry Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB) has assisted quality certification of 04 IT companies at ISO 27001, 03 at ISO 20000-1 and 02 on CMMI Level-2. The certification of 12 IT companies is in progress on ISO 27001/20000-1/CMMI/L2/L3/L5. 270
305. Transport and Communications iii . Capacity Building of IT Professionals PSEB aims to create a highly skilled resource pool within the Pakistan IT industry and train 10,000 IT industry professional and graduates to match the advanced specialized international technologies i.e., Big Data/Cloud Computing, Scrum, SQA, Mean/Full stack development, Python, Cyber Security, CCNA, Oracle, PMP, Prince2 and CMMI. It has trained more than 1,000 IT graduate and professionals on these technologies. Solicitation and Funding Activities Technology startups are considered to be the epicenter of innovation and are fueling the growth of economies worldwide by creating new jobs, contributing to GDP and raising the standard of living. Some of the success models around the world are South Korea and Singapore. The Government of Pakistan has also realized the importance of supporting an innovation and entrepreneurship culture in the country and has taken major strides in the past few years. This includes supporting cutting-edge R&D and product development through supporting startups and joint industry-academia collaborations. Ignite-National Technology Fund, under the Ministry of IT & Telecom, has been focusing on 4th Industrial Wave Technologies over the past three years. Under the unsolicited stream, applications are accepted throughout the year from aspiring applicants both from academia and industry (especially startups) thus creating the right balance between research and product development. iv. National Grassroots ICT Research Initiative (NGIRI) The Programme is aimed at promoting R&D and innovation at grassroot level by providing financial support to selected final year projects (FYP) of undergraduate students enrolled in ICT related disciplines of the public & private sector institutions. The Programme rolled out in FY2012, has approved 4,494 FYP for funding. Disbursements of Rs 172.08 million have been made against 3,032 approved FYP. Programme highlights from FY2012 to FY2020 are summarized in table below: Table 13.12: National Grass-Root ICT Research Initiative (NGIRI) 2012-2020 (Nos.) Programme Participating FYP FYP FYP Disbursements Year Institutes Submitted Approved Funded (Rs million) 2011-12 68 785 272 272 15.27 2012-13 78 1,017 418 418 31.78 2013-14 72 1,247 430 430 25.13 2014-15 75 1,324 436 436 29.59 2015-16 76 1,166 512 360 18.14 2017-18 89 1,623 569 439 21.45 2018-19 136 2,124 815 677 30.72 2019-20 156 2,832 1,042 Total 12,118 4,494 3,032 172.08 NGIRI 2021 was launched on 14th December 2020 and last date to submit FYP was 1 stFebruary 2021 Source: Ministry of Information Technology & Telecom Pakistan Telecommunication Authority Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), as regulator of the telecom sector of Pakistan, strives to establish a competitive, fair, progressive, consumer oriented and 271
306. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 business friendly regulatory environment in the country . International connectivity, bandwidth capacity, fiber footprint and network redundancies are being improved to meet the ever-increasing demand for data services in the country. While providing modern telecom services, effective governance of internet is ensured to safeguard the interests of the people through active engagement with international platforms, forums and organizations. Encouraging fair competition, keeping pace with rapid modernization of telecom systems, contributing to informed policymaking and creating synergies by working in partnership mode are just a few areas marked by PTA with substantive improvements. Following is detail of telecom developments in Pakistan. Table 13.13: Telecom Investment 2016-17 FDI (inflow) Telecom Investment Total 116.4 971.7 1,088.1 US$ (million) 2017-18 288.5 792.6 1,081.1 2018-19 235.5 642.0 877.5 2019-20 763.3 855.4 1618.7 Jul 20-Feb 21 101.1 363.9 465.0 Source: State Bank of Pakistan Telecom Sector Analysis Telecom sector has emerged as one of the vibrant sector of Pakistan’s economy. Increasing revenues, growing investment and enhanced contributions to national exchequer are hallmarks of the sector for many years now. During July 2012 to February 2021, telecom sector has attracted over US$ 3.9 billion of FDI. Foreign Direct Investment in telecom during July-February FY2021 was US$ 101.1 million. Telecom operators have invested an amount of US$ 363.9 million during JulyDecember FY2021. The main driver behind this investment is the cellular mobile sector which has invested US $253.5 million during the period. The overall investment in the telecom sector during the 1st 8 months of FY2021 crossed US$ 465.0 million. Telecom Sector Contribution Telecom sector is a significant source of revenue generation for the national exchequer. The telecom sector’s contribution (including PTA deposits) to the national exchequer registered 129 percent growth in FY2021. During July-December FY2021, telecom sector contributed estimated Rs 97.7 billion to the national exchequer in terms of taxes, regulatory fees, initial and annual license fees, activation tax and other charges (see Fig13.7). Telecom Revenues The International Telecommunicaiton Union reported decline of 5-10 percent in telecom sector revenue across countries owing to the COVID-19. Pakistan was no exception in FY2021, as telecom sector revenue declined to Rs 541.4 billion, which was 4.1 percent less as compared to last year. Revenues from telecom sector in two quarters 2021 reached an estimated Rs 276.0 billion (see Fig-13.8). 272
307. Transport and Communications Fig : 13.7: Telecom Contribution 300.00 GST PTA'sDeposits Fig 13.8: Telecom Revenues 278.4 Others 564.7 600 250.00 476.3 541.4 499.1 95.8 165.6 121.90 150.00 97.0 82.10 85.00 100.00 50.00 500 160.1 141.1 72.8 52.60 39.7 22.3 43.80 52.80 26.0 23.1 41.5 17.0 27.4 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Jul-Dec 20… - Rs in Billions Rs. in Billions 200.00 400 276.0 300 200 100 Note: Figures for Jul-Dec 21 are estimates and all other figures are updated. PTA's contributions comprise of all its receipts including Initial and Annual License Fees, Annual Radio Frequency Spectrum Fee, Annual Spectrum Administrative Fee, USF and R&D Fund Contributions, APC for USF, Numbering Charges, License 0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Application Fee, etc. Others include custom duties, WHT and other taxes. Jul-Dec 20 Teledensity At the end of March 2021, total teledensity in the country reached 85.8 percent, registering a growth of 7.3 percent during July-March FY2021 (see Fig13.9). Cellular mobile segment was the main contributor towards overall growth in teledensity. Cellular Subscribers The cellular mobile sector in Pakistan demonstrated impressive growth in terms of nationwide expansion of networks and provision of broadband services. According to the PSLM Survey 2020, 98 percent urban households in the country have mobile phone and about 45 percent individuals own them. Cellular mobile subscribers (number of active SIMs) in Pakistan reached 182 million at the end of March 2021 compared to 167.3 million at the end of June 2020, showing a growth of 8.6 percent in nine months (see Fig13.10). Growth in this segment is a healthy sign for the operators as more subscribers mean more revenue generating opportunities. Fig 13.9: Teledensity 72.4 74.1 80.0 70.0 1.5 1.3 77.7 1.3 79.9 85.8 1.1 180 Percentage 60.0 50.0 40.0 70.9 72.8 76.4 78.8 84.7 30.0 182 200 1.1 Million Subscribers 90.0 Fig-13.10: Cellular Subscribers 160 140 150 161 167 140 120 100 80 20.0 60 10.0 40 20 0.0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 FLL & WLL Cellular Mobile Mar 21 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Mar-21 273
308. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Broadband Subscribers and Penetration Million Where lockdowns during the COVID-19 Fig 13 .11: Broadband Subscribers & Penetration pandemic slackened economic activity, 48 120 50 Subscribers (Million) vibrant telecommunication systems played 39 45 Penetration (%) a pivotal role in ensuring availability of 100 40 34 100 essential services to the community. The 35 28 80 83 pandemic enabled actualization of the true 30 23 71 potential of broadband services, 60 25 58 20 transforming the way people lived and 40 45 15 worked from home. All daily activities 10 related to education, health and virtually 20 5 every other sector of the economy were 0 0 digitized, creating a huge nation wide 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Mar-2021 demand for telecom services. Rising to the occasion, PTA supported by other telecom operators ensured connectivity and network resilience; Mobile and Fixed Broadband subscriber base showed strong growth during July-March 2021. At end March 2021, broadband subscribers touched 100 million. The total broadband penetration (both fixed and mobile) in Pakistan stood at 47.6 percent in March 2021 registering an increase of about 19.7 percent as compared to the FY2020 (see Fig13.11). Local Loop Subscribers The subscriber base of local loop (FLL&WLL) segment reached 2.46 million at end March 2021 as compared to 2.40 million in June 2020. The net addition of 0.06 million subscribers translates to a 2.5 percent growth (see Fig13.12). Mobile Data Usage Data usage by CMOs during July 2020 to February 2021 reached 4,196 Petabytes which is indicating a huge increase in eight months. During last FY2020 data usage remained 4,498 Petabytes (see Fig13.13). Fig 13.12:Local Loop Subscribers (FLL&WLL) 3.00 Millions 3.00 Fig 13.13: Cellular Mobile Data Usage (PB) 5,000 4,498 4,500 2.90 4,196 4,000 2.50 2.40 2..46 3,500 3,000 2.50 2,545 2,500 2.00 2,000 1.50 1,207 1,500 1,000 1.00 614 500 0.50 2016-17 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Mar-21 274 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Jul-20 to Feb-21
309. Transport and Communications Table 13 .16: Local Loop Subscribers Financial Year Telephones Broadband Connections (FLL&WLL) (Mobile& Fixed) 2014-15 3,931,296 16,885,518 2015-16 3,295,169 40,147,991 2016-17 2,986,310 44,586,733 2017-18 2,884,889 58,339,814 2018-19 2,574,937 71,026,087 2019-20 2,417,195 83,205,589 Mar-21 2,464,317 99,628,182 Note: FLL and WLL Subscribers are till December 2020 Source: Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (Nos.) Mobile Phones 114,658,434 133,241,465 139,758,116 150,238,653 161,021,628 167,268,871 181,740,406 Spectrum Auction and Renewals PTA has initiated the process for Spectrum Auction of 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz in Pakistan including AJK & GB. Cellular Mobile licenses are being renewed in AJK & GB for enhanced next generation mobile services. An advisory committee has been constituted for the release of spectrum for Next Generation Mobile Services across the country. Introduction of 5G PTA has unveiled 5G roadmap incorporating the testing of 5G technology and allied services during the FY2021. Under the policy directives of the Government for introduction and trials of future wireless networks in Pakistan, stakeholders consultation exercise was undertaken to draft a framework on the matter. Furthermore, PTA permitted tests and trials of 5G services under limited environment and on noncommercial basis. Successful trials have been conducted by CMPak, Jazz, Telenor, Ufone and PTCL. During the trials, operators conducted demo test cases including, remote surgery for the first time in Pakistan, Cloud gaming and overview of other 5G technology applications. These were among the first trials of 5G services in any South Asian country, with a recorded download speed of more than 1 Gigabits per second (Gbps). Pakistan was thus recognized as a pioneer of 5G trials in the region. PTA foresees 5G technology operating in a highly heterogeneous environment and providing ubiquitous connectivity for a wide range of devices, new applications and use cases. Device Identification, Registration and Blocking System (DIRBS) International organizations such as the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), GSM Association (GSMA), Mobile Manufacturers Forum (MMF), Intellectual Property Owners Organization (IPO), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Customs Organization (WCO) and other entities have been working to confront the menace of the grey market for mobile devices and its negative impact on the mobile ecosystem. Pakistan has the distinction of implementing the world’s first open-source, full-fledged Device Identification, Registration and Blocking System (DIRBS). This system has the ability to identify all the IMEIs latched on Pakistan’s mobile network and categorize them on the basis of their compliant status. Implementation of DIRBS has resulted in removing illegal devices from the local market. 275
310. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 During January-March FY2021 , the legal import of mobile devices increased to 48 million. This is an exponential jump and perhaps the most visible change due to DIRBS as both businesses and individual consumers showed confidence in the system and avoided the use of illegal mobile devices. The taxes/duties collected from individual consumers, which prior to DIRBS was an untapped area for revenue collection, stands at Rs 13.93 billion during the period Jan 2019 to Mar 2021. On the commercial import side, the revenue of Rs 22 billion during 2018-19 increased to 83 billion for the period from Jan 2019 to Nov 2020. This is a significant increase despite economic slowdown caused by the pandemic. Impacts of DIRBS on Economy a) PTA has blocked 175 thousand devices IMEI reported as stolen through DIRBS b) System has also identified and blocked 26.03 million fake/replica mobile devices since 2019 identified as programmed with non-GSMA formation c) The system has been successfully able to identify cloned/duplicated IMEI, whereby 657,645 IMEI were cloned against 4.24 million MSISDN The launch of DIRBS has also had a significant impact on development of mobile device eco system as companies now have a level playing field. As per figures extracted from DIRBS, it is observed that there is substantial growth in 4G devices that are connected to local mobile networks and the pattern also shows a decline in use of 2G, 3G devices with consumer appetite shifting towards 4G functionality devices. This pattern listed below compliments GoP vision of digital Pakistan. • • • 4G devices have seen a growth from 16 percent (Jan 2018) to 41 percent (Feb 2021) 3G devices have seen drop from 19 percent (Jan 2018) to 8 percent (Feb 2021) 2G devices have seen drop from 64 percent (Jan 2018) to 51 percent (Feb 2021) Mobile Manufacturing Due to the introduction of DIRBS, legal imports have increased significantly and local manufacturing has also picked up. The government decided to introduce a comprehensive mobile manufacturing policy to encourage and attract mobile manufacturing players to come to Pakistan and establish their plants. The mobile manufacturing policy was approved by Federal Cabinet in June, 2020 and in light of this policy, PTA has published Mobile Device Manufacturing (MDM) Regulations on 28th January, 2021. Till date 7 companies have obtained 10 Year Mobile Device Manufacturing Authorization and will manufacture mobile devices including 4G smart phones within Pakistan. Renewal of integrated and Commercial Licenses Integrated licenses were granted to Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL), National Telecommunication Company (NTC) and Special Communication Organization (SCO) under Sections 39, 40 and 41(3) of the Pakistan Telecommunication (Re-organization) Act, 1996 for a period of 25 years effective January 1, 1996. These licenses were to expire on December 31, 2020. PTA has initiated the renewal process in 276
311. Transport and Communications consultation with all relevant stakeholders . In a bid to fulfil commercial and practical communication needs, PTA granted commercial licenses to Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL) and Pakistan Railways for establishment and operationalization of their own telecommunication systems and services. The process for renewal of these licenses has also been initiated with the consensus of stakeholders and in consonance with the Telecom Policy. During the period under review, 62 licenses for telecom and 48 licenses for radio-based services were issued. PTA Gets ISO 9001:2015 Certification for Consumer Protection Division PTA has received ISO 9001:2015 quality management system certification for its Consumer Protection Division (CPD) after a detailed audit conducted by accredited certification body, the British Assessment Bureau. This certification demonstrates PTA’s commitment to deliver the highest quality solutions to end users in Pakistan through state of the art Complaint Management System (CMS) run by its Consumer Protection Division. PTA is also determined to analyze and address issues of telecom services for continuous improvement, user satisfaction and engagement. ISO 9001:2015 is an internationally recognized standard of consistency and competency using robust quality management systems designed to encourage continuous improvement and enhance customer satisfaction. Consumer Support Centre In February 2020, PTA launched a Consumer Support Center (CSC) for registration of complaints related to telecom services. Managed by an efficient and qualified team, this state-of-the-art facility remains functional seven days a week (from 9 am to 9 pm). Customers can lodge their complaints through a dedicated toll-free number (080055055). The CSC, inter alia, handles complaints related to cellular mobile telephony, Internet Service Providers (ISPs), fixed and wireless telephony, DIRBS, web content reporting (blasphemy, pornography, etc.), Universal Account Number (UAN), toll-free, Unique Identification Number (UIN) and allocation of short/ Class Value Added Services (CVAS) registration. On average during February 2020 to March 2021 CSC received 38,700 calls per month. The facility is testimony to PTA’s commitment to provide innovative international quality services to address consumer needs. Raids on Illegal Gateways Determined to tackle the hazards of illegal Table 13.14: Raids on Illegal Gateways grey trafficking, PTA, with support from Jan 2020 to the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), 2019 Mar 2021 carried out 50 successful raids against Raids Conducted 28 22 illegal Voice Over IP (VoIP) setups across Gateways Confiscated 102 43 Pakistan during 2019 and January 2020 to Arrests 23 10 March 2021. As many as 145 illegal Source: Pakistan Telecommunication Authority gateways were confiscated during these raids. These raids led to the arrest of 33 persons against whom legal proceedings are underway. Table presents a summary of the raids conducted, gateways confiscated and arrests made. 277
312. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 4th Generation Regulator PTA ’s ranking as 4th Generation Regulator Table 13.15: Top Five Asia-Pacific Regulators (G4) places Pakistan among the top five (2019) regulators in the Asia-Pacific region. Out Score GEN of 38 economies in the region, only 8 Singapore 130.5 G5 109.5 G5 percent states have managed to attain this Japan 94.5 G4 distinctive status. Moreover, the country's Australia Pakistan 88.0 G4 journey towards collaborative regulations Malaysia 87.0 G4 is well acknowledged. In order to achieve Source: Pakistan Telecommunication Authority the G5 regulator status from ITU, PTA is continuously striving to protect consumer interests and enhance public-private collaboration for digital transformation and socio-economic uplift. Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA), established under PEMRA Ordinance 2002, as amended by the PEMRA (Amendment) Act 2007, facilitates and regulates private electronic media in Pakistan and strives to improve the standards of information and entertainment in the country. It also works to broaden the choice available to the people of Pakistan in terms of news, current affairs, religious knowledge, art and culture as well as science and technology. The Authority is responsible for facilitating and regulating the establishment and operation of all types of broadcast media and distribution services in Pakistan established for the purpose of international, national, provincial, district and local area community based or special target audiences. PEMRA is primarily mandated for licensing and regulating the establishment and operation of all broadcast media (satellite TV & FM radio) and distribution services (Cable TV, DTH, IPTV, Mobile TV, MMDS etc.) in Pakistan. Its mandate further includes: i. Improve the standards of information, education and entertainment. ii. Enlarge the choice available to the people of Pakistan in the media for news, current affairs, religious knowledge, art, culture, science, technology, economic development, social sector concerns, music, sports, drama and other subjects of public and national interest. iii. Facilitate the devolution of responsibility and power to the grass roots level by improving the access of the people to mass media at the local and community level. iv. Ensure accountability, transparency and good governance by optimization of the free flow of information. PEMRA is now in its 19th year and during these years, the country has witnessed unprecedented growth in the number of TV channels and FM Radio stations as well as distribution networks i.e. Cable TV, IPTV, DTH and MMDS in the private sector. The private electronic media has come a long way since 2002 when Pakistan was only dominated by the state-run Pakistan Television and Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation. Now with almost 112 Pakistani electronic media channels and more than 43 channels with Landing Rights Permission in Pakistan, the role of PEMRA has never been more important. This boom is owed to the government’s unequivocal commitment to a free 278
313. Transport and Communications media and the proactive role played by PEMRA in facilitating the growth of the electronic media . The growth of TV channels, Cable TV and launch of FM Radio stations has indeed contributed remarkably in raising the standards of public awareness and literacy, locally and portraying progressive image of Pakistan globally. A glance at the following facts and figures on licensing of media amply substantiates growth which has taken place in electronic media in private sector in the last nineteen years. Financial Contributions Besides collecting advance tax from licensees at the time of issuance of licenses and their renewal, PEMRA has deposited significant amounts in the Federal Consolidated Fund (FCF). Year wise detail as under: Table 13.17: Financial Contributions Financial Year Surplus Fine & Penalty 2012-13 8,337.636 2,986.800 2013-14 205.537 1,894.750 2014-15 20,077.535 22,746.500 2015-16 481.304 6,588.000 2016-17 5,287.295 25,983.500 2017-18 390.912 11,161.999 2018-19 936,885.338 6,471.000 2019-20 236.919 4,571.000 2020-21 4,711.000 (upto April-2021) Total: 971,902.476 87,114.549 Source: Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) (Rs in million) Total 11,324.436 2,100.287 42,824.035 7,069.304 31,270.795 11,552.911 943,356.338 4,807.919 4,711.000 1,059,017.025 Economic Contribution The growth of media industry in Pakistan has multiplied rapidly during the last decade and now this sector is contributing considerably in building broadcasting apparatus in the major cities and generating a large number of job opportunities for the youth. Over the period, cumulative investment of approximately US$ 4 to 5 billion has been estimated in electronic media industry of Pakistan. The sector is providing employment to more than 300,000 people in the field of journalism, management and technical services. However, with the growing landscape of media industry, a significant jump in employment opportunities is expected in the coming 3 to 5 years. Moreover, new licences would inject investment of approximately US$ 2 to 3 billion in various projects. Pakistan Television Corporation Limited Two main projects are underway by Pakistan Television Corporation i.e. modernization of camera & production equipment and DTMB-A. The first project, financed by Government of Pakistan under PSDP, has an allocation of Rs 133 million. The second project DTMB-A has been launched with the assistance from China to improve the signal quality of terrestrial network in less developed areas of Pakistan. 279
314. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation (PBC) is another important and effective electronic media platform to provide information, education and entertainment to the masses. PBC’s achievements during FY2021 are as under: 1. Special Programmes on Corona pandemic to reach out to the most vulnerable: Special programmes were broadcasted to cover corona-virus pandemic and governments’ efforts to bring the pandemic under control. Programmes were broadcast in 21 regional languages besides Urdu from PBC network, situated in Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. 2. Radio School: In light of the Prime Minister’s vision, Radio Pakistan started Radio School to impart education to children especially in far flung areas through distance learning during COVID-19 pandemic. Educational programmes are being broadcast from various medium wave and FM networks of Radio Pakistan from 10:00 am to 12:00 pm with rebroadcast from 2:00 pm to 4:00 pm seven days a week. 3. Wide Spread Publicity and Coverage of Government’s Initiatives: Extensive coverage was given by all PBC Stations and Channels to government’s initiative and its socio-economic benefits were also highlighted on regular basis. 4. Special Kashmir Transmission: PBC started special exclusive transmission for the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir after imposition of curfew and communication blockade by the Indian Oppressing forces in the aftermath of changing the status of Kashmir in August, 2019. Radio Pakistan is the only source of information and communication for the people of the Occupied Valley. 5. Sports Coverage: PBC aired Live Running Commentary and Live updates on all important national and international Cricket Series like PSL, International Tours etc. to entertain the masses. Special programmes and sports updates were also regularly aired regarding other sports events. 6. Kamyab Jawan Programme: PBC started a weekly programme to highlight the government initiatives to create opportunities for youth to empower them in the process of decision making and encourage their representation in all spheres of life. 7. Locust Control Programmes by Radio Pakistan: PBC broadcast special programmes regarding Locust control from Quetta, Karachi, Larkana, Hyderabad, Mianwali, D.I Khan and Bahawalpur stations. Discussion 280
315. Transport and Communications programmes were broadcast emphasizing the methods to save fields from Locust attacks . Government initiatives regarding Locust control were also highlighted. 8. Tourism: PBC has been broadcasting a special programme titled “Rabta” to highlight the Steps taken by the government for the promotion of tourism in the country. PBC also produced documentaries on Historical sites across the country. 9. Countering Extremism & 5th General Hybrid War of the Enemy: All PBC Stations/Channels highlighted and supported the sacrifices of Pakistan Army and other Law Enforcement Agencies with full spirit as a national cause for maintaining peace in the country and countering the 5th General Hybrid War of the Enemy through the mainstream and all social media platforms. Pakistan Post Office Pakistan Post Office is one of the oldest government departments in the subcontinent. It began functioning as the Department of Post & Telegraph in 1947. In 1962, it started working as an independent attached department of Ministry of Communications. Pakistan Post is the largest postal operator in the country providing timely services at affordable cost. Pakistan Post’s Recent Initiatives Pakistan Post has recently taken important initiatives to provide efficient postal services to the people of Pakistan. The details are as follows: i) Same Day Delivery Service The same Day Delivery Services aims to facilitate the delivery within a city. Consignment is delivered the same day if booked before noon. The service is available in 29 cities at present with plans for extension to other cities in the near future. ii) Electronic Money Order The “Electronic Money Order” (EMO) service is one of the most promising services which provides electronic transfer of money. Initially the EMO was offered for window payment at the General Post Offices (GPOs) throughout the country which was known as Post–to–Post. Now Pakistan Post is offering EMO services which is Post–to–doorstep. iii) Pakistan Post Mobile Application Pakistan post has launched its own mobile application offering postal services tariffs, post codes, post office locator, complaint registration, track and trace and pick up facilities. iv) Express Mail Service (Plus) Pakistan Post has launched Express Mail Service (EMS) (Plus), a specialized service for export sector. It aims to ensure delivery of parcel and packets worldwide in shortest possible time. Rates are competitive with real time track and trace facility. 281
316. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 v ) Pakistan Post E-Commerce Initiative Pakistan Post launched its e-commerce initiative in February 2019 pakpostshop.gov.pk. Registrations were sought in the following categories: on a. Delivery Partner b. Sale through Postal Counter c. Collect and return services d. Co-branding Partner 1625 registration forms from private vendors for COD business have been received till 31st March 2021. vi) Partnership with NADRA Pakistan Post and NADRA signed an agreement for “Renewal/ Modification of CNIC through Post Offices”. This initiative has facilitated customers in remote areas. vii) Improvement of Pakistan Post Complaint Management System (CMS) Pakistan Post has a Complaint Management System (CMS) connecting all controlling and field offices across the country. viii) Pakistan Post’s Facebook Page Pakistan Post is maintaining a Facebook page to receive feedback and suggestions for improvement in postal operations from general public https://www.facebook/pakistan.postoffice ix) Computerized Pension Payment System Pakistan Post Office Department is paying pensions to military and PTCL pensioners in a hassle free environment. x) Western Union (WU) Money Transfer Service Pakistan Post, under an Agency Agreement with Western Union, provides international remittance services under the Western Union Money Transfer Service through 2,094 post offices in the country. xi) International Postal Services Pakistan Post has mail links across the globe. The exchange of mail is carried out under rules and regulations of the Universal Postal Union. Direct mail links exists with 72 countries while the rest of the countries are catered through transit facilities of intermediary countries. xii) PPOD-NBP International Remittance Service Pakistan Post, in collaboration with the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), provides payment of/disburses foreign remittances under NBP’s remittance service, through 500 designated post offices across the country. 282
317. Transport and Communications Philately : The following Commemorative Postage Stamps have been issued during the July 2020 to March 2021 period: Table 13.18: Commemorative Postage Stamps Issuance of Commemorative Postage Stamp on World Population Day, 2020. Issuance of Special Postage Stamp on one year of Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir Siege. Issuance of Commemorative Postage Stamp of Silver Jubilee Shoukat Khanum Hospital Issuance of Commemorative Postage stamp in the Honour of Mughal Abdul Haq Jahanzeb former Wali of Swat State Issuance of Commemorative Postage Stamp To Celebrate The 75th Anniversary of the United Nations Issuance of Special Postage Stamp on Pink Ribbon -Breast Cancer Awareness. Issuance of Special Postage Stamp on “NEW POLITICAL MAP OF PAKISTAN - 2020 Source: Pakistan Post Office 11-07-2020 Rs 20/- 05-08-2020 Rs 58/- 06-08-2020 Rs 20/- 14-09-2020 Rs 20/- 24-10-2020 Rs 20/- 11-11-2020 Rs 20/- 25-12-2020 Rs 20/- Number of Post Offices as in March 2021 Summary of Rural & Urban Post Offices is as under: Conclusion Table 13.19: Post Offices Urban Rural 1514 8589 Source: Pakistan Post Office (Nos.) Total 10,103 A well developed and functioning transport and communication network is critical to the country’s economy. It is for this very reason that the Government is fully focused towards establishing a state of the art fully modernized network of linkages which can propel Pakistan as a regional gateway. Inward and outward connections will give impetus to the private sector to realize its true potential, attract investments from abroad, boost our exports, create jobs and opportunities for sustained and inclusive growth. Going forward, the addition of new highways and motorways, promising developments at the Gwadar Port, updation of the rail network and adoption of IT services are all measures which will have a significant impact of the country’s growth prospects. 283
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319. Chapter 14 Energy The use of energy has increased significantly due to various inventions and innovations of common use made in last century . Thus almost all human activities have become more dependent on energy. For developing nations in particular, there is fundamental need for reliable and affordable energy. In these countries, energy demand has been increased due to expansion in industry, modernized agriculture, increased trade and improved transportation. Pakistan is dependent on energy imports because there is lack of investment in indigenous resources of hydro, natural gas and lignite. Biomass is the largest energy source. The government has decided to stop building new coal-fired power plants because of environmental issues. The public oil and gas companies are planned to be privatized for various concerns. Due to significant increase in electricity demand, both state-owned companies and IPPs are actively engaged in producing electricity. However, fiscal sustainability has become a challenge due to increase in energy payments. This energy deficiency began from a fuel mix transformation which was initiated two decades ago, when power generation used to rely more on imported furnace oil than hydropower. The current energy crisis began to manifest itself by late 2007. The problem has evolved over the years from one of chronic power supply deficits to one where there is excess installed capacity but not enough cash flow in the system to run it. The latter created ‘circular debt’ issue. Specifically, the ‘circular debt’ in Pakistan’s energy supply chain refers to the cash flow shortfall incurred in the power sector from the delayed/non-payment of obligations by consumers, distribution companies and the government. It has continued to grow in size over the years, rising from 1.6 percent of GDP (Rs161billion) in 2008, to 5.2 percent of GDP (Rs 2,150 billion) in June 2020. The present government has given prime importance to resolve this issue and working on various options to reduce circular debt. In terms of energy-mix, Pakistan’s reliance on thermal which includes imported coal, local coal, RLNG and natural gas has been decreasing over last few years. Pakistan’s dependence on natural gas in the overall energy mix is on decline and the reduction of its share in the energy mix is due to declining natural gas reserves and introduction of LNG. The share of renewable energy has steadily increased over the years. The government is also taking measures to increase the shares of Hydel and Nuclear in energy-mix. Energy systems around the world are going through rapid transitions that will bring significant changes to the way we fuel our cars, heat our houses and power our industries. These trends will have widespread implications for businesses, governments and individuals in the coming decades. In Pakistan, special measures have been taken to
320. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 use these innovations for domestic usage of energy , such as Electrical Vehicle Policy 2020-25. Pakistan’s Electricity Generation Capacity and Energy Mix The hydro share in total electricity generation has declined in FY2021 as compared to its share in FY2020. Currently, thermal has the largest share in electricity generation. Moreover, its percentage share in FY2021 has increased as compared to FY2020. Significant growth of RLNG usage in energy mix has helped for improved supply to various power plants. RLNG is also supplied to fertilizer plants, industrial and transport sectors. The comparison of share of different sources of electricity’s installed and generation capacity is given below: 10.0 2000.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 Table 14.2: Installed Capacity 2019-20 2020-21 (July-April) (July-April) 37,500 Installed Capacity (MW) 36,500 35,972 37,261 Source: Ministry of Energy, (Power Division) Till April, FY2021, installed capacity of electricity has reached 37,261 MW, posting a growth of 3.6 percent. Fig-14.2: Installed Capacity (MW) 37,000 36,000 35,500 35,000 2019-20 (Jul-Apr) Table 14.3: Share in Electricity Generation (GWh) 2019 2020 2021 (July-April) (July-April) (July-April) Thermal 61,003 56,320 61,052 Hydel 24,931 29,799 31,357 Nuclear 2,903 7,941 8,038 Renewable 7,955 2,322 2,294 Total 96,792 96,382 102,742 Source: Ministry of Energy, (Power Division) 286 Bagasse 4000.0 Solar 15.0 Wind 6000.0 Nuclear 20.0 Gas 8000.0 COAL 25.0 RFO 10000.0 RLNG 30.0 Hydel 12000.0 Share%age Fig-14.1: Fuel-wise Installed Capacity Breakup Installed (MW) Table 14.1: Fuel-wise Installed Capacity Breakup Installed Percentage Share (MW) Hydel 9,874.0 26.00 RLNG 7,325.0 19.66 RFO 6,274.0 16.84 COAL 4,770.0 12.80 Gas 4,529.0 12.15 Nuclear 2,490.0 6.68 Wind 1,235.0 3.31 Solar 400.0 1.07 Bagasse 364.0 0.98 Total 37,261.0 100.00 Source: Ministry of Energy, (Power Division) 2020-21 (Jul-Apr) Percentage Share 2020 2021 (July-April) (July-April) 58.43 59.42 30.92 30.52 8.24 7.82 2.41 2.23 100.0 100.0
321. Energy Fig-14 .3: Share in Electricity Generation (GWh) 80.00 60.00 58.43 2020 (Jul-Apr) 59.42 40.00 30.92 2021 (Jul-Apr) 30.52 20.00 8.24 7.82 2.41 2.23 0.00 Thermal Hydel Nuclear Renewable Electricity Consumption There is no considerable change in the consumption pattern of electricity. During JulyApril FY2021, the share of agriculture in electricity consumption is constant. However, the share of Industry in electricity consumption has increased which shows revival of economic activities. The comparison between consumption patterns of electricity during July-March 2021 with corresponding period last year is shown below: Table 14.4: Share in Electricity Consumption UNITS SOLD (GWh) Sector 2019-20 2020-21 (July-March) (July-March) Household 39,461 41,508 Commercial 6,313 6,246 Industry 20,461 22,280 Agriculture 7,127 7,558 Others 6,825 7,008 Grand Total 80,187 84,600 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Index of Pakistan 60 50 %Share 2019-20 2020-21 (July-March) (July-March) 49.2 49.1 7.9 7.4 25.5 26.3 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.3 100 100 Fig: 14.4 Share in Electricity Consumption 49.2 49.1 2019-20 (Jul-Mar) 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 40 30 25.5 26.3 20 7.9 10 8.9 7.4 8.9 8.5 8.3 0 Household Commercial Industry Agriculture Others 287
322. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 NEPRA has extended advice to the concerned entities , including Federal/ Provincial Governments, on various power sector issues. NEPRA also established Occupational Health, Safety & Environment (HSE) Department to enhance the safe and smooth operations and well-being of licensee employees, contractors and community as a whole. NEPRA has also established Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Department to streamline CSR initiatives taken by licensees for people within their organization and for the communities within they operate. NEPRA issued an advisory to ensure following issues to help DISCOs in achieving better service delivery:  Fully utilize investments as allowed by NEPRA so that new and critical projects are initiated and completed in time  Install 100% metering at all levels to trace flow of electricity top-down;  Elimination of electricity theft and billing through prepaid and postpaid initiatives;  Engage law enforcement agencies with DISCOs to control theft and for the enforcement of disconnection order; Oil Sector Crude oil’s local extraction and imports reached to 68.9 million barrels in Jul-Mar 2021 from 58.6 million barrel in corresponding period last year, while share of import in JulyMarch 2021 remained 48.2 million barrel as compared to 38.8 million barrel in last year same period. Similarly in Jul-Mar 2021, consumption of petroleum products increased to 14.7 million ton from 12.5 million ton in period under discussion. Oil storage of 38,579 metric tons added in the country’s logistics during the period of Jul-Mar, 2021 at the cost of Rs.5,786.8 million. Four licenses for construction and one license for operation of Lube Oil Blending, Reclamation and Grease Plants were issued. Five licenses for setting up Lubricant Marketing Company (LMC) and three Operational licenses for LMCs were also issued. These provisions of licenses will enhance the domestic supply of crude oil and will decrease import bill. GAS Sector Natural Gas is a clean, safe, efficient and environment friendly fuel. Its indigenous supplies contribute about 35 percent in the primary energy supply mix of the country. Pakistan has an extensive gas network of over 13,315 KM Transmission 149,715 KM Distribution and 39,612 KM services gas pipelines to cater for the requirement of more than 10.3 million consumers across the country. The Government of Pakistan is pursuing policies for enhancing indigenous gas production as well as imported gas to meet the increasing demand of energy in the country. At present, the capacity of two Floating Regasification Storage Units (FRSU) for Re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG) is 1200 MMCFD and accordingly RLNG is being imported to mitigate gas demand-supply shortfall. The average natural gas consumption was about 3,723 Million Cubic Feet per day (MMCFD) including 950 MMCFD volume of RLNG during July-Feb 2021. During JulyFeb 2021, the two gas utility companies (SNGPL & SSGCL) have laid 143 Km Gas Transmission network, 2,616 Km Distribution and 886 Km Services lines and connected 288
323. Energy 70 villages /towns to the gas network. During the period 304,573 additional gas connections including 303,243 Domestic, 1,020 Commercial and 310 Industrial connections were provided across the country. It is expected that gas will be supplied to approximately 524,000 new consumers (this target is subject to approval/revision by OGRA) during the fiscal year 2021-22. Gas utility companies have planned to invest Rs. 17,571 million on transmission projects, Rs. 91,812 million on distribution projects and Rs. 3,156 million on other projects bringing the total investment of Rs. 112,539 million during the fiscal year 2021-22. Table14.5 : Sector Wise Natural Gas Consumption In million Cubic Feet Per Day (MMCFD) Sector Power Household Commercial Transport (CNG) Fertilizer General Industry Total Gas Consumption in MMCFD 610 915 65 63 687 433 2,773 RLNG (Bcfd) Total 578 8 47 37 280 950 1,188 915 73 110 724 713 3,723 Source: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division, Policy Wing) Table 14.6 Gas Transmission Augmentation Projects S. No Project Description 1 2 Installation of one (01) New Gas Turbine Driven Centrifugal Compressor at Shikarpur In order to cater the natural gas requirement at Balochistan and Quetta, SSGCL has successfully installed one turbo compressor unit of 200 Mmcfd capacity at Shikarpur. The main objective of this project is to meet the requirement during winter season. 30” Diameter x 17 Km Pipeline from CTS Bin Qasim to Pakland In order to enhance the pipeline capacity of RLNG from 1.2 Bcfd to 1.8 Bcfd, a 30” diameter x 17 Km pipeline has been laid from CTS Bin Qasim to Pakland in addition to already existing 42” Dia pipeline. Commissioning Date November 2020 December 2020 Source: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division, Policy Wing) Table 14.7 Gas Projects in progress 1 24” Diameter X 31 KMs Pipeline from ACPL to Surjani In order to cater the low pressure problem in West end of Karachi & S.I.T.E industrial area, 24” diameter x 31 Km pipeline has been planned for transporting 100 MMcfd additional gas to aforesaid area of Karachi. 2 12” Diameter X 9 KMs Pipeline from SMS Pakland to SMS Dhabeji for Special Economic Zone This project is being executed in order to supply 13.5 MMscfd volumes of gas to Dhabeji Special Economic Zone. Source: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division, Policy Wing) Liquefied Petroleum Gas Sector Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) plays an important role in the energy mix of Pakistan as it provides a cleaner alternative to biomass based sources, especially in locations where 289
324. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 natural gas is not available . The total supply of LPG during July–March, 2021 was 927,683 metric tons. Currently there are 11 LPG producers and 216 LPG marketing companies operating in the country having more than 7,000 authorized distributors. OGRA has simplified the procedure for grant of LPG license and the same is granted on fast track basis once the requirements are met / complied. During July–March, 2020-21, one (01) license for construction of LPG production facility, nine (09) licenses for operation of LPG Storage & Filling Plants and twenty (20) licenses for construction of LPG Storage and Filling plants were issued. In addition, OGRA has also issued five (05) licenses for construction of LPG auto refueling stations and one (01) license for operation of LPG Auto Refueling Station during the same period. Due to augmented investment and future expansion plans of the LPG marketing companies, significant investment in LPG supply and distribution infrastructure has been witnessed. OGRA has made significant contribution in national economic progress and created an environment for additional investment which will not only result in creation of infrastructure in LPG sector all over the country but will also provide jobs to hundreds of unemployed people. OGRA is playing its vital regulatory role to increase private investment in midstream and downstream petroleum industry. During July– March, 2021 an investment of approximately Rs. 17.08 billion has been made in LPG infrastructure. Liquefied Natural Gas Sector As of March 2021, two (02) Operational and five (05) Provisional Licenses pertaining to LNG regulated activities have been issued by OGRA which are valid and in-force. Two Provisional Licenses holders for LNG projects i.e. Energas Terminal (Private) Limited (ETPL) and Tabeer Energy (Private) Limited (TEPL) applied for the next stage of licensing i.e. construction license. Moreover, Daewoo Gas (Private) Limited (DGPL) and LNG Easy (Private) Limited have been granted provisional licenses during the period under reference for virtual pipeline projects. In addition to the above, OGRA has drafted LNG Terminal Access Rules and LNG Terminal Access Code during the period under reference. These rules are expected to play a pivotal role in liberalization of LNG market and shall also promote development of a competitive gas market by ensuring uniform principles of transparency, fair and non-discriminatory practices in all transactions concerning use of LNG terminals and ensuring safe and reliable supply of gas thus participating in economic growth. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Sector There has been a ban on issuance of new CNG License(s) since 2008 and therefore OGRA did not issue any new CNG License(s). However, the government has permitted issuance of CNG License(s) on RLNG basis only in October 2020. Nuclear Energy Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is the only utility engaged in generation of electricity through nuclear power in Pakistan. In performing its functions, it undertakes planning, construction, operation, radioactive waste management and decommissioning 290
325. Energy of all its nuclear power plants . The electricity produced by the operating Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) of PAEC is delivered to its clients, namely K Electric in Karachi and Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) in the rest of the country. There are six nuclear power plants operating on two sites in the country, two units namely Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) at Karachi and four units of Chashma Nuclear Power Plants (C-1, C-2, C-3 & C-4) at Chashma (Mianwali District of Punjab Province). The gross capacity of these five nuclear power plants is 2,530 MW that supplied about 7,076 million units of electricity to the national grid during 1st July 2020 to 31st March 2021. KANUPP, the oldest of the lot has surpassed its design life of 30 years and has completed 49 years of safe and successful operation. PNRA relicensed the plant after expiry of its design life and put a cap on thermal power as well as electrical power. KANUPP was allowed to operate at a maximum power of 90 MW. The second unit at Karachi (K-2) was connected to grid on 18th March 2021. The four units of Chashma are amongst the best performing electricity generating plants in the country, in terms of endurance and availability. Two of these plants, C-2 and C-4 made national records of continuous longest operation for over one year. Some performance parameters of these plants are presented in the following table: Table14.8: PAEC’s Performance Parameters Plant Capacity (MW) Gross Net KANUPP C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 K-2 100 325 325 340 340 1,100 90 300 300 315 315 1,071 Electricity sent to Grid (Million kWh) 1st July 2020 to Lifetime up to 31st March 2021 31st March 2021 162 14,871 1,929 41,742 1,466 22,328 1,723 10,355 1,774 8,358 22 22 Source: Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission One more unit with gross capacity of 1,100 MW is currently under construction near the KANUPP site in Karachi, the Karachi Nuclear Power Plants (K-3). Cold functional tests for K-3 are in progress. K-3 plants are expected to become operational in 2022. PAEC has undertaken construction of another nuclear power plant at Chashma near Mianwali. The site already is home to four operating nuclear plants. This unit will be called C-5 and it will replicate the design characteristics of K-2 and K-3. As per requirement of Environment Protection Agency (EPA), Punjab, public hearing of Environment Impact Assessment Report of C-5 was arranged at Chashma site in September 2020. Punjab EPA has issued the NOC. PAEC has intensified its activities to meet the nuclear electricity generation target of 8,800 MW by the year 2030 set through government‘s Energy Security Plan formulated in 2005. Completion of K-2/K-3 project will be a big step that will bring PAEC 2,200 MW closer to achieving this target. PAEC is planning to develop additional sites to house more nuclear power plants in the future and sites identified throughout the country. 291
326. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 These sites are investigated and acquired for future development . Ample technical and engineering infrastructure is already in place to support both the existing and the under construction nuclear power plants. Skilled labor is being produced regularly by Indigenous institutes, imparting state of the art training and education in all relevant disciplines and at all levels, from technical trainings to academic programs. These instruments are enough to successfully support the foreseeable future ambitions envisioned by PAEC for the future nuclear power program of Pakistan. Mineral Sector As per constitutional provisions, the Federal Government is mandated with geological surveys and regulation of mineral oil, natural gas and mineral necessary for generation of nuclear energy and those occurring in federally, controlled areas, national policy formulation, facilitation and coordination at national and international levels. All other minerals are Provincial subject and the executively and legislatively authority for regulating the development and exploitation of these natural resources through grant of mineral titles (prospecting/exploration licenses & mining leases) etc. The country is blessed with 92 minerals, out of which 50 are exploited on commercial basis. Following initiatives/achievements have been undertaken by the Petroleum Division for the uplift of mineral sector of Pakistan; i) Baluchistan Minerals Exploration Company Limited (BMEC) has been established as joint venture with the Provincial Government in August 2020 to promote large-scale mining in the mineral rich province of Baluchistan. ii) An investment facilitation project "Establishment of National Minerals Data Center (NMDC)" has been launched at federal level through PSDP at cost of Rs 295.000 million to maintain data repository encompassing the available geo-technical data and administrative details about licensing - granted mineral tiles and the areas applied for mining concessions. The NMDC will comprise an integrated system of the units located in each province and other concerned organizations (GSP etc.) connected to a Central setup managed by the Mineral Wing of Petroleum Division. This arrangement would enable ready access to the basic data required by the prospective investors and would facilitate the investors in a big way. iii) Another initiative has been taken through PSDP "Legal Consultancy Services for Drafting of Model Mineral Agreement and formulation of uniform regulatory regime" at cost of Rs 100.000 million to facilitate introduction of an internationally competitive regulatory and institutional framework in the country in the light of best industry practices. iv) Action is underway for revamping of Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation (PMDC) and restructuring of Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) for better service delivery to help exploration and development of indigenous mineral resources. v) Stakeholders' consultation process initiated for formulation of policy framework to promote use of indigenous coal resources for synthesis of gas and liquid fuels. vi) Services extended for special development packages introduced by the Federal Government for minerals sector of Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. 292
327. Energy vii ) Continued support to facilitate smooth operation of mineral sector projects - Saindak Copper-Gold (Saindak Metals Limited), Duddar Lead-Zinc (MCC Huaye Duddar Mining Company), Barite-Lead-Zinc (Bolan Mining Enterprises), Chiniot Iron Ore (Punjab Mineral Company) and mining projects of rock salt and coal. Coal is still used as source of energy production; however, its share is 12.8% in total installed capacity. The province wise coal production along with its import is given below: Table 14.9: COAL Production Sr. No. Province 1. Balochistan 2. Sindh 3. Punjab 4. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 5. AJ&K 6. Import Total FY2020 3,086,576 4,414,296 1,072,120 257,240 272 16,421,787 25,252,291 FY2021 (July to Feb) 2,060,624 3,747,144 526,190 41,212 205 12,183,161 18,558,536 Source: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division, Mineral Wing) Renewable Sector The Government of Pakistan is emphasizing on utilization of indigenous and environmentally clean energy generation resources. The government has made Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) responsible for renewable energy sector. In this regard, the promotion of alternative and renewable technologies is amongst the top priorities of the government. Several initiatives have been taken to create conducive environment for the sustainable growth of Alternative Renewable Energy (ARE) Sector in Pakistan in order to harness the potential of indigenous renewable energy resources. Development of IPP Based Projects The development of large-scale grid connected on ARE based power generation projects are being pursued through private investors. Under the vision of the current Government to exploit clean energy resources and increase the share of ARE in the energy mix, the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE) had allowed implementation of projects that had already achieved significant milestones of project development by placing them into following three categories;  Category-1: 19 projects of 531 MW that have already been issued Letter of Support (LOS) subject to revision of tariff in case tariff determination has been done since more than one year or if the tariff validity period has lapsed  Category-II: 24 projects of 1339.3 MW that have acquired tariff and generation license subject to revision of tariff in case tariff determination has been done since more than one year or if the tariff validity period has lapsed 293
328. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  Category-III: 110 projects of 6707 MW cumulative capacity holding LOIs to be allowed to proceed ahead after becoming successful in a competitive bidding to be undertaken as per demand communicated by NTDC. AEDB has actively been facilitating the said projects as per the criterion set by the CCOE. Four (04) solar PV projects, listed under Category-II have been facilitated to achieve Financial Closing in February, 2021. The projects will be completed by December 2021. AEDB has prepared the Request for Proposals (RFP) for carrying out competitive bidding for wind and solar projects falling under category-III. The RFP package was considered by NEPRA in Feb 2021 and directed AEDB to make certain changes in RFP and submit revised RFP after AEDB Board approval. AEDB has revised the RFP documents as per NEPRA’s directions. Security Documents (EPA & IA) have also been revised in view of NEPRA’s observations. RFP Packages are ready to be floated upon receipt of information pertaining to IRZs and total evacuation capacity/ quantum by NTDC through the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP). Alternative Renewable Energy Policy 2019 The Government announced a new ARE Policy 2019 in October 2020. The policy aims at creating a conducive environment supported by a robust framework for the sustainable growth of ARE Sector in Pakistan. The GOP’s strategic objectives of energy security, affordability of electricity, availability for all, environmental protection, sustainable development, social equity and mitigation of climate change will further be harnessed under the ARE Policy 2019. Salient features of the ARE Policy 2019 are as follows:  The policy has an expanded scope encompassing all alternative and renewable energy sources, competitive procurement and addresses areas like distributed generation systems, off-grid solutions, B2B methodologies and rural energy services.  The policy is target oriented and sets a target of achieving 20% on-grid capacity from ARE technologies by 2025 and 30% capacity by 2030.  It envisages development of large scale ARE projects in all parts of the country through active participation of the provinces.  Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) outputs will form the basis of all on-grid capacity procurements.  Provinces are part of the Steering Committee envisaged in the policy that will be carrying out the planning of annual ARE induction. Provincial energy departments will be carrying out competitive bidding process as per the annual ARE procurement plan approved by the AEDB on recommendations of the Steering Committee.  The most significant feature of the policy is that it makes a transition from the traditional methods of procurement based on cost plus and upfront tariffs to competitive bidding. All new ARE projects specifically wind and solar power projects will be developed through competitive bidding. 294
329. Energy  The policy envisages simplification and rationalization of the licensing framework for non-utility procurement to minimize regulatory fee, compliance cost and timeframes. Distributed Generation (Net Metering) Apart from large scale RE projects, the Government of Pakistan is also encouraging utilization of renewable energy technology at consumer ends across domestic, commercial, industrial sectors. AEDB has been promoting the renewable energy based net-metering deployments under the NEPRA (Alternative & Renewable Energy) Distributed Generation and Net Metering Regulations, 2015. AEDB has also been carrying out certification of service providers / vendors / installers of solar systems under AEDB (Certification) Regulations, 2018 in order to facilitate the consumers, DISCOs and at the same time ensuring quality of service and equipment. AEDB issued certificates to sixty eight (68) service providers /vendors/installers during July 2020-March 2021. As of Mar 2021 the total number of active AEDB certified service providers /vendors/installers reached up to one hundred and four (104). During the period of July 2020 to March 2021, a total of 5283 new licenses were issued by NPERA for net-metering based installation of approx. 90.15 MW. As of 31st March, 2021 a total of 10,563 generation licenses for net-metering based solar installations with a cumulative capacity of 181.27 MW had been issued by NEPRA. Other Supportive Measures by AEDB AEDB undertook a number of supportive measures in order to promote ARE technologies and to attract private sector investments. Some of the supportive measures taken by AEDB are as follows: i. ii. iii. iv. AEDB proactively facilitated the RE power projects in achieving their project milestones and resolution of issues and impediments faced by the project sponsors from different public sector entities. Assisted World Bank in study for analyzing the integration of variable renewable energy in the national grid with the objective of increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix of the country. Assisted World Bank in carrying out the Pakistan Renewable Energy Locational study that has the objective to identify the most suitable locations for VRE deployment in Pakistan to enable an informed strategic planning process of the imminent capacity ramp-up. AEDB proactively engaged with World Bank for carrying out the Pakistan Renewable Energy Competitive Bidding Study that will provide strategic analysis and advice to the AEDB and other relevant sector agencies on the implementation of competitive bidding for the contracting of Renewable Energy (RE) capacity to achieve the 2025 and 2030 targets in line with the Alternative Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019. 295
330. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Carried out stakeholder consultation for revision of AEDB (Certification) Regulations 2018 aimed to simply the procedures laid therein in order to ensure the implement the present Government’s policy of Ease of Doing Business. vi. Developed the RFP package after stakeholder consultation for carrying out competitive bidding amongst pipeline wind and solar projects are per the decisions of the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE). vii. Assisted NTDC in carrying out the feasibility study of solar water pumping in Baluchistan. viii. Supported Government of Baluchistan in preparation of PC-IIs for renewable energy based off-grid electrification projects in districts of southern Baluchistan. v. Private Power and Infrastructure Board Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) acts as a one-window facilitator/one- stop organization to promote, encourage, facilitate and safeguard investment in the power sector. PPIB approves and facilitates the development and implementation of power projects and related infrastructure in private sector, public-private partnership and specified public sector projects. The performance of PPIB is evident from the fact that under 1994, 1995, 2002 and 2015 Power Policies PPIB has so far managed to commission forty (40) independent power projects (IPPs) totaling 17,551 MW with a cumulative investment outlay of around US$ 20 billion of which nine (9) IPPs of more than 8,500 MW have been commissioned within a short period of three years i.e. during 2017-2020. Conclusion Pakistan is successfully overcoming energy crisis, which has direct and indirect impact on all sectors of the economy, through increase in generation as well as in transmission capacity of the system. Presently, Energy Sector is confronted with some issues, which needs to be filled up along with improvement in energy-mix for its supply at lower cost as well as fixation of other energy related issues which are strained to national exchequer. Besides ongoing big hydro power projects, present government is also pursuing renewable energy sources which are cost saving to improve the existing energy mix in the country. 296
331. Chapter 15 Social Protection Social protection signifies the capacity of a society to meet the basic human needs of its citizens , establish the building blocks that allow citizens and communities to enhance the quality of their lives on sustainable basis and create the conditions for all individuals to attain their full potential. Social protection can help build the resilience of the poor and vulnerable segments by supporting them against negative income shocks and protecting essential household expenditures such that on food, health and education. The social and economic effects of COVID-19 are being felt with high intensity across least-developed, developing and emerging market economies irrespective of their income levels. Most of these will experience a low GDP growth during the pandemic period coupled with decline in employment levels leading to a worsening situation in respect of poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition. The COVID-19 pandemic is posing an unprecedented challenge to countries’ social protection systems. Informal workers are at a high risk as they are not covered by any formal social assistance or social insurance mechanism. The socio-economic consequences includes a decrease in demand for goods and services, supply chain disruptions and, employment and income losses. Concurrently, capacities and resources vary across the world to overcome this pandemic and its health, social and economic challenges associated with it. Social protection, therefore has a central role to play in mitigating the social, economic and health dimensions of the crisis. It fulfils three interrelated roles: (i) protecting critically threatened livelihoods; (ii) preserving and strengthening capacity for recovery; and (iii) building future resilience. Pakistan’s poverty reduction efforts have been widely documented and acknowledged. Remittances, safety net transfers and informal system of philanthropic networks have contributed to poverty alleviation. Under social safety nets, Pakistan’s Ehsaas Emergency Cash programme has helped to counter the socio-economic fallout of the pandemic. Multilateral assistance through specific global financial initiatives can help further cushioning the impact of the pandemic. The IMF has enhanced the access limits for its emergency financing facilities, extended grant-based debt service relief and is helping vulnerable countries with new financing through other lending facilities. Other elements of the global financial safety net have also been activated to alleviate international liquidity shortages in emerging markets, including central bank swap lines. The longer
332. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 the pandemic and its aftermath persist , greater the need to enhance efforts to support financially constrained economies. To achieve “No Poverty” by 2030 is part of a comprehensive SDG Agenda-1 that calls to end poverty (extreme) in all its manifestations by ensuring social protection, increase access to basic services and support people from economic, social and environmental shocks. Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives in collaboration with the Provincial Planning and Development Departments and the UNDP carried out an extensive series of divisional level workshops on sensitization to SDGs at the grass root levels, localization of SDGs, prioritization of SDGs and data gap analysis for proper monitoring and reporting. Baseline Value/Year Latest Achievements1 Target 2030 1.1.1 Proportion of population below the international poverty line, by sex, age, employment status and geographical location (urban/ rural) 3.90% (2014-15) - - 1.2.1 Proportion of population living below the national poverty line, by sex and age Overall=29.5% Urban=18.2%, Rural=35.6% (2013-14) Overall=24.3% Urban=12.5%, Rural=30.7% (2015-16) 9.00% 1.2.2 Proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions Overall=38.8% Urban=9.4%, Rural=54.6% (2014-15) - 19.00% Indicator Description According to UNDP Human Development Report 2020, Pakistan's HDI value for 2019 remained at 0.557 which put the country in the ‘Medium’ category. Pakistan ranked at 154 out of 189 countries in the index based on Health (life expectancy at birth), Education (Expected years of schooling) and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. Between 1990-2019, Pakistan's HDI value increased from 0.402 to 0.557, an increase of 38.6 percent which is considerably less than the increase achieved by Bangladesh (59 percent) and India (52 percent). Pakistan’s life expectancy at birth increased by 7.2 years, mean years of schooling increased by 2.9 years and expected years of schooling increased by 3.7 years respectively. Pakistan’s GNI per capita increased by 64.1 percent. From South Asia, Pakistan is compared with Bangladesh, Afghanistan and India which have HDIs ranks of 133, 169 and 131 respectively. Pakistan has shown some progress in human development indicators over the years, raising it to the Medium Human Development category yet, this progress is slower than all other South Asian countries except Afghanistan as given in the Table 15.1 below: 1 Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives has constituted a committee to work out the latest poverty figures. The work on poverty figures in under process, once approved, will be published in the national document accordingly. 298
333. Social Protection Table-15 .1: Human Development Index and its Components Human Development Index (HDI) Value (2019) Country/ Region HDI Rank World South Asia Iran Sri Lanka China India Bangladesh Afghanistan Pakistan 71 72 85 131 133 169 154 Average Annual HDI Growth (%) [1990-2019] 0.737 0.641 0.783 0.782 0.761 0.645 0.632 0.580 0.557 0.71 1.33 1.13 0.75 1.47 1.42 1.64 1.83 1.13 Life Expectancy at Birth Expected Years of Schooling Mean Years of Schooling SDG-3 SDG-4.3 SDG-4.4 72.8 69.9 76.7 77.0 76.9 69.7 72.6 64.8 67.3 12.7 11.7 14.8 14.1 14.0 12.2 11.6 10.2 8.3 Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (2017 PPP $) SDG-8.5 8.5 6.5 10.3 10.6 8.1 6.5 6.2 3.9 5.2 Multidimensional Poverty Index Headcount (%) 16,734 6,532 12,447 12,707 16,057 6,681 4,976 2,229 5,005 29.2 2.9 3.9 27.9 24.6 55.9 38.3 Source: UNDP Human Development Report-2020 Fig-15.1: Average Annual HDI Growth 1990-2019 (%) 2.0 0.8 1.83 1.6 1.47 1.33 1.4 0.71 0.7 1.42 1.13 1.2 0.8 Fig-15.2: HDI regional trends, 1990-2019 1.64 1.8 1.0 0.9 1.13 0.75 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 World Iran China Bangladesh Pakistan 0.2 0.0 0.3 South Asia Sri Lanka India Afghanistan 0.2 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 Tracking the Pro-Poor Expenditures Expenditure on pro-poor sectors stood at 9.5 percent of GDP in 2016-17 followed by 9.2 percent of GDP in 2017-18. It dropped to 8.1 percent of GDP in 2018-19 and slightly increased to 8.3 percent of GDP in 2019-20. In absolute terms, pro-poor expenditure increased to Rs 3,447.35 billion as compared to Rs 3,009.30 billion in 2018-19 shown in Table 15.2 below: Table-15.2: PRSP Budgetary Expenditures by Sector Sectors 2015-16 Roads, Highways & Bridges Environment / Water Supply and Sanitation Education Health Population Planning Social Security & Welfare** Natural Calamities & Other Disasters Agriculture Land Reclamation 397,506 63,554 663,356 267,953 10,894 173,532 59,204 239,019 4,601 2016-17 526,356 72,031 699,222 328,962 20,338 259,455 27,461 258,396 2,558 2017-18 452,463 77,932 829,152 416,467 20,451 257,534 19,062 277,867 2,730 (Rs million) 2018-19 2019-20* 400,623 45,186 868,022 421,778 14,328 173,443 20,933 256,697 2,538 342,689 70,337 611,015 482,265 11,381 280,258 72,353 377,093 2,418 299
334. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table-15 .2: PRSP Budgetary Expenditures by Sector (Rs million) Sectors 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* Rural Development 37,419 30,934 42,127 11,958 29,738 Subsidies 437,087 403,139 327,767 387,092 635,816 Low Cost Housing 460 422 349 704 1,766 Justice Administration 33,255 41,926 53,461 65,937 72,737 Law and Order 306,738 356,217 390,556 430,063 457,487 Total 2,694,578 3,027,417 3,167,918 3,099,302 3,447,353 Total as % of GDP (2005-06 base) 9.3 9.5 9.2 8.1 8.3 *: Provisional **: Social Security & Welfare includes the expenditure of BISP, SDGs and PBM. Source: External Finance Policy Wing, Finance Division Fig-15.3: Pro-Poor Expenditures 3447.35 3800 3400 3027.42 Rs billion 3099.30 2017-18 2018-19 2694.58 3000 2274.63 2600 2200 3167.92 1913.29 1934.18 2012-13 2013-14 1800 1400 1000 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2019-20 Two Years of Prime Minister’s Ehsaas On March 27, 2019, Ehsaas was launched by Prime Minister as Pakistan’s largest ever social protection and poverty eradication initiative. Ehsaas aims at creation of a ‘welfare state’ by countering elite capture and leveraging 21st century tools—such as using information and digital payment systems, to create a modern safety net programmes; promoting financial inclusion and access to digital services; supporting the economic empowerment of women; focusing on the central role of human capital formation for poverty eradication, economic growth and sustainable development; and overcoming financial barriers to accessing health and post-secondary education. The programme is unique because of its scale, multisectoral character, coverage, design process, management and governance, institutional arrangements and funding. Ehsaas is based on taking a whole-of-government multi-sectoral approach for innovative solutions; ensuring joint federal-provincial leadership; and mainstreaming the role of the private philanthropic sector on the one hand and fosters locally relevant innovation and on the other, protects livelihoods of the most vulnerable. Ehsaas programme is specially designed for the ultra poor, orphans, widows, the homeless, the disabled, those who are at risk of health shocks, jobless, poor farmers, laborers, sick and undernourished, students from low-income backgrounds, poor 300
335. Social Protection women and elderly citizens . This plan is also about supporting lagging geographical areas where poverty is higher. Ehsaas’ poverty reduction strategy is articulated in four pillars and it currently embodies more than 140 policy actions, which may be expanded as consultations on the programme are taken forward. The four pillars include: addressing elite capture and making the governance system work for a more equal society; implementing safety net programmes for the disadvantaged segments of the population; supporting jobs and livelihoods; and enhancing human capital development. Post-COVID 19 scenario, necessitated for new forms of social protection and the need to reach out to various disadvantaged groups. Accordingly, Post-COVID Ehsaas Strategy of Ehsaas programme considers social protection as the cornerstone of relief and recovery efforts which also aim to address rising inequality in the wake of the pandemic. Therefore, pandemic was raging in the country, ground work had already commenced on several demand-side social protection interventions to protect human capital from negative shocks, which impact inter-generational poverty. As a result of these efforts, the education conditional cash transfer programme has been expanded nationwide, the new health and nutrition programme (Ehsaas Nashonuma) has been rolled out in timely manner and the expansion of the shock-oriented safety net (Ehsaas Tahafuz) is planned to be extended to other parts of the country in next phase. Additional resources have been allocated for the ‘National Poverty Graduation Initiative’. Planning on social risk mitigation measures, for the informal sector has taken a higher priority. COVID-19 has exposed structural problems in the informal sector. A new programme has been designed being cognizant of the miseries of the poor, informal workers having inadequate savings and limited access to finance. Prioritization of the Safety Net Pillar in the Ehsaas Framework: The main instruments through which prioritization of Safety Net Pillar is being carried, include the following: 1) Increase in social protection spending by the government; 2) Enhanced scope and coverage of safety nets; 3) Strong focus on governance of institutions implementing safety net programmes; 4) Development of the new National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) to ensure a sound targeting mechanism; 5) System building for efficiency and integrity and 6) Service delivery through the One-Window Ehsaas. A new federal division has been established to oversee implementation of the policies, programmes and initiatives related to poverty alleviation and social safety nets. Details related to the operationalization of the Safety Net Pillar are outlined in Panel 1. 301
336. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Panel 1 . Operationalizing the Safety Net Pillar of Ehsaas Institutional arrangement Financial resources Data The Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division (PASSD), now popularly known as the ‘Ehsaas Ministry’ was established in April 2019. All the agencies responsible for executing Ehsaas which were previously reporting to different ministries are now attached to the ‘Ehsaas Ministry’ Budget is set aside in the Federal Budget to broaden safety nets The Government is investing in building a new National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) to be completed in June, 2021 and big data analytics is in use for targeting Governance and To eliminate abuse, misaligned incentives and inefficiencies and ensure Integrity Policy effective targeting, a Governance and Integrity Policy has been pronounced. Compliance with the policy is binding for all PASSD agencies. The Ehsaas Governance observatory has also been setup to track implementation Systems building The Ehsaas digital payment system was installed in 2019 One-Window The One-Window Ehsaas will facilitate citizen’s access to all the social Ehsaas protection programmes and online public goods Scope (policies, 1. Ehsaas Kafaalat: stipends, financial and digital inclusion of women programmes and 2. Ehsaas Tahafuz, safety net to enable protection against catastrophic initiatives) risks 3. Waseela-e-Taleem Digital, education related conditional cash transfers 4. Ehsaas Merit and needs-based under-graduate scholarships * 5. Ehsaas Nashonuma: health and nutrition-centered conditional cash transfer and specialized nutrition food for mothers and children up to 2 years 6. Ehsaas Langars2 7. Ehsaas Interest Free Loans 8. Ehsaas Emergency Cash 9. Ehsaas Amdan, asset transfer programme 10. Ehsaas Kafaaalt for differently-abled and Overall Disability Policy** 11. Dar-ul-Ehsaas, new standards for orphanages expanding base 12. Ehsaas One Window 13. Sehat Card: a health insurance scheme****  *Executed by PASS in collaboration with the Higher Education Commission  ** Multisectoral responsibility  ***Execution: Ministry of Human Resource Development and Overseas Pakistanis  ****Execution: Ministry of National Health Services Regulation and Coordination  All others are executed through ancillary agencies of PASSD 2 Soup kitchens to feed those who have no other means 302
337. Social Protection Key Ehsaas Programmes and Initiatives Since the launch of Ehsaas , many transformative initiatives and policy reforms have effectively been implemented nationwide. Some of the Ehsaas’ early wins across various sectors include: Ehsaas Kafaalat, Ehsaas Emergency Cash, Ehsaas Undergraduate Scholarship, Ehsaas Nashonuma, Ehsaas Langars, Ehsaas Interest Free Loans, Ehsaas Amdan and several others. Ehsaas Kafaalat Launched by the Prime Minister on Jan 31, 2020, Ehsaas Kafaalat is the Government’s un-conditional cash transfer programme which disburses cash stipends of Rs 2,000 per month and has led to opening of bank accounts of the most deserving and poorest women across the country. Kafaalat is a key initiative of the Ehsaas programme. The number of Kafaalat beneficiaries has been increased to 7 million and a policy on indexation of cash transfers has been approved by BISP board. Quarterly stipend has also been increased from 5,000 to 6,000 per quarter. Enrolment of new beneficiaries is dependent on the data from the new Ehsaas survey. With the Ehsaas survey now 87 percent complete, payments to those that have been identified through the new survey have commenced. All those that are being identified for enrolment through the new survey are given Rs 2000 a month on a continuing basis, to assist them with their basic needs. In total, 7 million beneficiaries will be included in Ehsaas Kafaalat. Government servants and their spouses, taxpayers, car owners, people with history of multiple foreign travels are not eligible under Kafaalat. Data analytics are being used to include or exclude individuals on these parameters. All payments are made through the new biometric Ehsaas Digital Payment System ensuring transparency. Ehsaas National Socio-economic Registry Survey Ehsaas is conducting a door-to-door survey all over the country so that data can be gathered about the socioeconomic status of households. The survey is the first ever computer aided survey that continues in various districts across the country to enroll deserving households in Ehsaas. As of May 9, 2021 the survey is currently 87 percent completed in the country and is progressing smoothly to be accomplished by June 30, 2021. According to the inclusive social protection policy of Ehsaas, the results of the survey will facilitate proper targeting of poor households across the country for a multitude of Ehsaas initiatives. To ensure transparency and integrity in data collection, the entire survey process has been digital from end-to-end. Field teams are collecting the socio-economic data of households at the doorstep through an android based application. Owing to the technical nature of the computerized Ehsaas survey, widespread training of master trainers, trainers, enumerators and supervisors is an important element of the Ehsaas survey methodology. These reforms have helped prompt decision making through analytics and intelligent live reporting systems. Ehsaas Registration Desks/ Effective Grievance Redressal To facilitate deserving households in self-registration, Ehsaas registration desks are being launched at Tehsil level in the country. The opening of registration desks is linked with the milestone of survey completion in each district. In this regard, Ehsaas has 303
338. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 partnered with NADRA to establish Ehsaas Registration Centres (ERC). These are deskbased data collection centres through which the registration of missed households as well as updation of any demographic information is carried out. Initially, 63 Ehsaas registration desks were established in 15 districts and now more desks are being established in 50 more districts. All these districts have achieved 70 percent household coverage under Ehsaas survey. Further, Ehsaas has also revamped its call center mechanism and improved information management to ensure effective grievance redressal for beneficiaries. Ehsaas Emergency Cash In addition to dire health consequences, COVID-19 affected livelihoods at an unprecedented scale; according to estimates, it negatively impacted ~160 million people in Pakistan. In response, the Government of Pakistan delivered Rs 179.8 billion as onetime emergency cash assistance to 14.8 million beneficiaries at risk of falling into extreme poverty. Given the family size, this meant helping over 100 million people or half the country’s population, representing the largest and most extensive social protection intervention ever in the history of the country. Each family was meant to receive Rs 12,000 for immediate subsistence. Digital capabilities established over the past year as part of Ehsaas, Pakistan’s new poverty alleviation frame-work, were adapted to deliver Ehsaas Emergency Cash, in particular, a new biometric payment system, a demand side SMS based request seeking platform and a new wealth profiling big data analytics mechanism. A hybrid targeting approach was adopted, combining emergency assistance for the known vulnerable with demand-based support for the “new poor”. Requests were sought through an 8171 SMS short code service and web-portal. Data analytics enabled eligibility ascertainment, using unique national identification numbers and drawing on the National Socio-Economic Registry and wealth proxies (travel, taxes, billing, assets ownership data and government employment status). The system was end-to-end datadriven, fully automated, rule-based, transparent and politically-neutral. Payments were biometrically verified. Ehsaas received 139 million requests of which 66 million were unique. 16.9 million individuals were declared eligible; over 14.8 million individuals collected their payments by the closing date on September 30, 2020; by then, Rs 179.221 billion had been disbursed. Payments to those with biometric failure and the next-of-kin of dead beneficiaries continued for a month beyond that date. Many challenges were encountered during the disbursement process. The largest social protection operation in the country was rolled out with lock downs in effect, public transport suspended and risk of disease spread looming. Additional challenges related to issues of logistics, connectivity, liquidity, cyber-attacks, biometric failures and limitations of data-driven messaging. The government approach, public private synergy and real time evaluation helped to successfully address these challenges swiftly. Fiscal measures were adopted to incentivize retailers to work in a difficult environment; communication measures were taken to address low financial and digital literacy. 304
339. Social Protection Ehsaas Emergency Cash will be an important component of the redesign of social protection , post COVID-19 and will assist in the global re-imagination of social welfare envisaged in Ehsaas. The Ehsaas Strategy has been revamped, post COVID-19 and there is a practical demonstration of increased attention to social protection under the Ehsaas umbrella despite the post-COVID financial constraints (Ehsaas Official 2020). Furthermore, this programme has also accelerated progress towards achievement of the gender equality and financial inclusion goals within the Ehsaas framework since nearly 54 percent of the recipients were women. In terms of global experience sharing, the case of Pakistan provides useful lessons for other countries that utilize unique personal identification systems. It shows that by combining phones, internet connectivity, national IDs and commercial payment systems, a digital and innovative demand-based social protection system can be created to enable those in distress to seek social support during crises. Ehsaas Emergency Cash also demonstrated how cash transfer programmes can be deployed to counter socioeconomic fallouts due to external shocks such as COVID-19 which present a long-term predicament. The approach can also address rising inequality and advance attainment of SDGs in a post COVID-19 world. Education Conditional Cash Transfers Education Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) are an important pillar of Ehsaas and are included in the Ehsaas framework as Policy #73 ‘Education Conditional Cash Transfers’. Initially, the programme covered primary school enrollment of 3.69 million children, supply capacity assessment of 160,246 public and private schools, constitution of 100,505 beneficiary committees for social mobilization and disbursement of Rs 15.7 billion as of 30-06-2020. The Rs 80 billion Education CCT programme has been expanded and massively reformed under Ehsaas to bring 5 million deserving primary school children into its fold from across all 154 districts of Pakistan over a 4- year duration. Over the last year and a half, a comprehensive and deep-rooted reform was designed and deployed as a result of which far reaching changes have been made in the programme. There are four key pillars of reform: First, end-to-end digitization of a number of processes, which were previously managed manually. Apps have been developed which are used by staff to register children and monitor compliance. Secondly, cost-effective changes in institutional infrastructure were implemented to expand this programme nationwide and reliance on NGOs was eliminated. Because of this, operational cost has been reduced from 8 percent to 3 percent. Third, the stipend given to children has been modified as per Ehsaas’ new Stipend policy. Children of poorest families will now be provided conditional cash grants of Rs 1,500 for a boy child and Rs 2,000 per quarter for a girl child on attainment of 70 percent attendance in school. Finally and most importantly, the programme is being expanded to all districts of the country. Ehsaas Nashonuma To ensure that malnutrition does not continue to compromise the human capital required to sustain the socioeconomic development, Ehsaas has rolled out a conditional 305
340. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 cash transfer programme covering health and nutrition , Ehsaas Nashonuma. The programme aims to address stunting in children under 23 months of age. 49 Nashonuma Centres are being opened in 14 districts in the first phase of Ehsaas Nashonuma programme. The flagship initiative of the government has been designed to tackle stunting and improve the nutrition of the poorest children through a combination of cash stipends, nutritional food, medical examination and training. The programme will be expanded to other districts in the next phase. The total budget of the three-year programme is approximately Rs 8.52 billion. The programme is fully funded by Government of Pakistan. The programme targets improving nutrition and health in the first thousand days of life, which is the most critical period in early childhood development, starting at conception and finishing at age of two. Every quarter, conditional cash-transfers are being provided to the poorest pregnant and lactating women and those with children under two years old; Rs 1500 for a boy child and mother and Rs 2000 for a girl child. Nashonuma stipends are disbursed to mothers through the biometrically-enabled Ehsaas payment system. Payments are conditional upon the consumption of specialized nutritious food, immunizations and attendance in health awareness sessions. Ehsaas Undergraduate Scholarship Prime Minster granted Ehsaas undergraduate scholarships for academic year FY2019 to the first batch of deserving students on March 2, 2020. Aiming to provide higher education opportunities for 200,000 students (50 percent girls) coming from underprivileged backgrounds, the 4-year Ehsaas undergraduate scholarship programme worth Rs 24 billion is the largest ever need based scholarship programme in the history of the country. Last year, 50,762 scholarships worth Rs 4.8 billion were granted to bright yet brilliant students. The scholarship offers full-tuition fee and a living stipend (Rs 4,000 per month) for bright yet disadvantaged students to earn an undergraduate degree at any of the 125 public sector universities across Pakistan (including GB and AJK) recognized by the HEC. As part of the policy, the scholarship support will be continued to the awardees throughout the course of their undergraduate degree programme based on their academic performance. The HEC portal is currently closed and will be opened for the next phase of applications after June 2021. For the academic year FY2021, total 67,000 scholarships worth 6.53 billion have been approved to benefit deserving students. Financial Inclusion and Ehsaas Saving Wallets Through Ehsaas Saving Wallets (ESWs), Kafaalat beneficiaries will have the option of either drawing their money or saving money in digital wallets. For the first time, the poorest women in Pakistan will have the option to save their payments. Financial and digital inclusion of 7 million households is one of the seven overarching goals of the Ehsaas Strategy. ESWs initiative is predicated on the understanding that digital and financial inclusion will open avenues for women to take better advantage of opportunities offered under the Ehsaas Interest Free Loans. ESWs is also an essential component of the Ehsaas Financial Inclusion Strategy, which was launched by the Prime Minister in the presence of H.E. Queen Maxima of the Netherlands when she visited Pakistan in November 2019. 306
341. Social Protection Initially , ESWs pilot is being rolled out in thirteen districts of the country including Haripur (KP), Muzaffarabad (AJK), Hunza Nagar (GB), Quetta (Balochistan), Islamabad (ICT), Faisalabad, Okara, Sheikhupura, Sargodha (Punjab), Matiari, Karachi Malir, Sanghar and Khairpur (Sindh). Based on lessons from the pilot, the initiative will be upscaled all across the country for the benefit of 7 million Ehsaas Kafaalat beneficiaries. The initiative will also focus on financial literacy of Kafaalat beneficiaries to ensure that women draw maximum benefit from this empowering initiative. Financial inclusion is a central goal of Ehsaas and key to unlocking the potential of millions of the most disadvantaged women, in Pakistan. By providing deserving women with access to secure, useful and affordable financial products and services like transactions, payments, savings, credit and insurance, Ehsaas will ensure their financial empowerment. Currently, Kafaalat beneficiaries are getting their cash grants through Limited Mandate Accounts (LMA) after biometric verification. The Saving Wallets will be linked to existing LMA accounts of Kafaalat recipients, providing them the option to save money and even purchase goods through the wallets. The facility will cover a set of transactions including balance inquiry, cash in/ cash out, transfer in from LMA-II, mobile top-up, utility bills payment and money transfers. Two specialized features: saving against deposit and cash back against purchase are also embedded in digital wallets. This model will also ensure end-to-end transparent audit trail of disbursed funds. Changing lives of millions of women, ESWs will help the marginalized people manage expenditure ranging from that related to long-term goals as well as unexpected emergencies. Ehsaas Interest Free Loans Launched in July 2019, under Ehsaas strategy, Interest Free Loans are a major component of the National Poverty Graduation Initiative. It aims to graduate the poorest households out of poverty and set them on a course of economic and social prosperity. As part of Ehsaas framework, 80,000 interest free loans (50 percent women) are being disbursed every month across Pakistan to reach 2.28 million households over the next four years. The range of loan size is Rs 20,000 – Rs 75,000. Any Pakistani aged between 18-60 years belonging to 110 districts (the information and list of which is available on the PPAF website (www.ppaf.org.pk/NPGI.html) can apply for an interest free loan under the Ehsaas Initiatives. Interest free loans are accessible through 1100 existing loan centers operated by partnering organizations which are manned with competent people to guide the borrowers. Overall, 1,100 loan centers/branches have been established in about 110 districts by 24 partner organizations across the country. Since inception of the programme till March 2021, a total of 1.2 million loans (46 percent loans to women) have been disbursed with a value of Rs 44.42 billion. During July- March FY2021, a total of 490,368 interest free loans (47 percent loans to women) amounting to Rs 17.50 billion have been disbursed to the borrowers. The detail of physical progress of IFL programme is given below: 307
342. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Sr . # Particulars 1 2 3 Number of loans disbursed to borrowers Amount disbursed to borrowers (Rs million) July-March FY2021 Men Women Total Cumulative as of March 2021 Men Women Total 257,542 232,826 490,368 687,108 584,194 1,271,302 9,728.46 7771.78 17,500.26 25578.48 18,842.80 44,421.29 Number of Loan Centers 1,100 Ehsaas Amdan (Income) Programme The Ehsaas Amdan programme is one of several programmes under the umbrella of Ehsaas. Its primary objective is to create livelihoods opportunities for the most disadvantaged segments of the society. This programme is an integral component of government of Pakistan’s Ehsaas Strategy and National Poverty Graduation Initiative (NPGI). It was launched by the Prime Minister on Feb 21, 2020. The programme involves giving small “assets” to those who live below the poverty line so that they can earn a living and escape from the shocks of poverty. Assets include livestock (goats, cows, buffaloes and poultry), agricultural inputs, body of Qingqi rickshaws and inputs for small retail outlets and small enterprises. The Rs 15 billion programme has been rolled out in 375 rural Union Councils of 23 poorest districts across the 4 provinces of Pakistan. The four-year programme has set a target of providing around 200,000 assets to the deserving households (60 percent women and 30 percent youth beneficiaries). In total, it will benefit a population of 1.4 million across the country. Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) which is an organization attached to the Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division is the lead implementing agency for the Ehsaas Amdan Programme and is working through other implementing partner organizations that have a strong presence in the selected districts. Districts in Punjab where this programme is commencing include Dera Ghazi Khan, Jhang and Layyah. In KP there are 10 districts; Upper Kohistan, Lower Kohistan, Palas Kolai, Torghar, Batagram, Shangla, North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan, Tank. In Balochistan there are three districts: Zhob, Gwadar and Lasbela. In Sindh, the programme districts include Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Tharparkar and Umerkot. Since the inception of the programme till March 2021, overall, 41,762 livelihood productive assets have been transferred to the ultra-poor and vulnerable households identified as per set criteria whereas a total of 20,175 productive assets have been transferred during the reporting period i.e. July-March FY2021. Over 95 percent assets have been transferred to women beneficiaries. The categories of these assets include livestock (81.21 percent), enterprises (9.56 percent), transportation (8.38 percent), production (0.25 percent), services (0.41 percent) and other (0.19 percent). The graphic representation (Fig-15.4) on asset transfers captures the diversity in economic sectors and beneficiary groups targeted in each province. 308
343. Social Protection Fig-15 .4: Sectoral Distribution of Assets ( July - March FY2021) 100,000 Total Asset Transfer 10,000 Livestock 1,000 Enterprise Transportation Production 100 10 Services 1 Others Female Male Female Punjab Male Female Sindh Male Female KP Male Female Balochistan Male Overall Total Asset Transfer 3,267 268 13,974 410 1,619 239 384 14 19,244 931 Livestock 2,978 25 11,471 0 1437 94 368 11 16,254 130 Enterprise 132 12 1337 148 162 126 11 0 1,642 286 Transportation 120 222 1129 215 0 4 0 1 1249 442 Production 0 0 0 47 0 0 3 0 3 47 Services 37 9 37 0 0 0 0 0 74 9 Others 0 0 0 0 20 15 2 2 22 17 Ehsaas Langars The Prime Minister launched the ‘Ehsaas Langar’ on October 7, 2019. The Ehsaas Langars are meant to serve meals to the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the society, especially daily wage laborers. Under an agreement with the Saylani Welfare International Trust (SWIT), Ehsaas will open over 100 Langars nationwide over a 2-year period under a public private partnership. Areas where Langars are being established include bus stands, industrial areas, railway stations and places where labourers tend to congregate. Till May FY2021, 34 Langars have been opened in all four provinces and Islamabad. Each Langar is serving two meals a day to at least 600-800 persons as per the vision of the Prime Minister. The Government is extending strategic support widely towards Ehsaas Langars in the areas of logistics, safety and quality standards and information dissemination which is at zero cost to the government. Ehsaas Koi Bhooka Na Soye ‘Ehsaas Koi Bhooka Na Soye’ (EKBNS) is a new programme of the federal government to eliminate hunger in the country. The initiative is an extension of Ehsaas Langar Policy and it aims to distribute cooked meals at designated delivery points in multiple cities to people in need especially those at risk of or experiencing hunger. Meals are delivered free of charge through food truck arrangements. EKBNS was officially launched by the Prime Minister on March 10, FY2021 to serve free meals to deserving populations in twin cities, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Centered on lessons from this initial phase, the innovative EKBNS programme has now been upscaled to three other cities including Lahore, Faisalabad and Peshawar. Earlier this year, Prime Minister had declared his resolve for the year 2021 that EKBNS would be introduced to make sure that no one goes to bed hungry. The distribution of free meals will help the labour class to save their hardearned earnings for their families. Later this year, the programme will be upscaled phase-wise to other parts of the country. Under the stewardship of the Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division, a ‘Donor Coordination Group’ has also been set up to steward the private sector engagement for this innovative food programme. All 309
344. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 pledges and commitments by the private sector will be handled by the coordination group . Enshrined in post-COVID-19 Ehsaas strategy, EKBNS is premised on a public-private partnership arrangement whereby the Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal manages food truck operations and Saylani Welfare International Trust manages food production. Panagah ‘Panagahs’ (shelter homes) is one of the Prime Minister’s priority programmes. To facilitate labourers and daily wagers who need shelter, Panagah facilities have been established by the government countrywide. Panagahs not only offer shelter to the needy but also provide a two-time meal for them. On August 9, 2020 the Prime Minister entrusted Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal (under the Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division’s umbrella) with the responsibility of improving quality standards within Panagahs. Work has been undertaken speedily since then to upgrade standards of five Panagahs in Islamabad as a starting point. Till May,2021 all five Panagahs in the federal capital have been upgraded to a “One Star+ bed and breakfast facility with meals, essentials, hygiene and security standards. Also, 4 new Panagahs have been opened in Gwadar, Lasbela, Chaman and Quetta districts of Balochistan, 5 in Karachi Sindh and 01 in Mardan district of KP. In the next phase, building upon the remodeling experience of Islamabad led by Ehsaas, federal-provincial collaboration will be ensured across provinces to bring improvements in the standards of Panagahs. So far, an amount of Rs 103.970 million has been utilized till March FY2021. Individual Financial Assistance (IFA) Through Individual Financial Assistance (IFA), a sizeable number of poor, widows, destitute and orphans are supported for medical treatment, education and general assistance. Ehsaas has envisioned providing wheel chairs to every disabled person in the country through Pakistan Bait ul Mal (PBM). A family having two or more special (disabled) children has been declared “Special Family” and receives benefits of Rs 25,000/- annually, whereas the family with one special child is being provided financial assistance of Rs 10,000/- per annum. From July to March FY2021, an amount of Rs 1.8 billion has been disbursed. Dar ul Ehsaas (Orphanages) Under Ehsaas, PBM has established Dar-ul-Ehsaas (orphanages) for orphan children, where they are being provided free food, nutrition, medical treatment, boarding and lodging, as well as, free education through well reputed educational institutions. An amount of Rs 367.35 million has been spent up to month of March FY2021. Ehsaas Kada (for shelter less senior citizen) Presently 02 centers have been established. This initiative would be up-scaled by PBM in a phased manner. The enrolled senior citizens (above the 60 years of age) are being provided free of cost boarding/lodging, messing and medical care of excellent standard. From July to March FY2021, an amount of Rs 3.596 million has been utilized. 310
345. Social Protection Women Empowerment Centres (WEC) Vocational Training Centres known as Women Empowerment Centres (WECs) have been established throughout the country by PBM. 154 WECs are providing free training to widows, orphans and poor girls in different skills i.e. cutting, sewing, knitting, computers and embroidery along with other trades. The trainees are being provided free training material. An amount of Rs 252.884 million has been utilized up to March during FY2021. Schools for Rehabilitation of Child Labour (SRCLs) Under the umbrella of Ehsaas, PBM has established 159 National Centres for Rehabilitation of Child Labour countrywide since 1995 for primary (non-formal) education. Children (male & female) between the ages of 5-6 years are weaned away from hazardous labour and enrolled in these centers with free provision of uniform, books and stationery. From July to March FY2021, an amount of Rs 437.985 million has been utilized. Data4Pakistan Ehsaas District Development Portal-Data4Pakistan is the first initiative of its kind in the country which provides open and public access to a spatial interactive portal that has poverty estimates for every district in Pakistan, along with over 120 development and policy indicators. The portal currently has six rounds of district poverty and development data, covering the period 2004-2018. This is a very valuable resource for federal, provincial and district level policymakers, for decision making. Interactive maps allow the user to visualize and compare districts on poverty with two additional indicators. The innovative portal uses data produced by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, as part of its Social and Living Standards Measurement Surveys as well as the Multiple indicators Custers Surveys produced by the provincial Bureaus of Statistics. The indicators currently available in the portal, include a range of demographic, health, education and employment statistics as well as statistics reporting access to key services like water, sanitation, electricity and gas. It also provides a number of gender parity indices at the district level. Ehsaas Tahafuz Extensive work has been done on the design of Ehsaas Tahafuz, Pakistan’s first health shock-oriented precision safety net. The programme aims at protecting the vulnerable populations from catastrophic health expenditures and is being pilot tested in one public hospital (Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi). Ehsaas Tahafuz will work with public hospitals to identify patients facing catastrophic health expenditures, who will then be assessed by the system and if eligible, will be provided funding by allocating donations to the patient. Tahafuz is being rolled out using a phased approach. Once fully operationalized, Tahafuz will establish a one window paperless and web-based precision safety net. It will also have funders’ empowerment features in terms of microtransaction alerts and personalized login credentials for detailed web-viewing right down to the micro-transaction level. 311
346. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 One Window Ehsaas One Window Ehsaas is a single-window information and service approach for better access to multiple Ehsaas programmes . The basic structure comprises of a ‘front-end’ and a ‘back-end. Physical Ehsaas center with hardware and prominent signage, android App and web interface would be at the ‘front-end’, whereas open APIs architecture along with a guiding policy will work at the ‘back-end’. With an aim to extend maximum facilitation and information on Ehsaas to the disadvantaged populations, Ehsaas is opening the first Ehsaas Physical Centre in Islamabad. Work has neared completion on the first prototype of the Ehsaas physical centre in Islamabad and digital interfaces. One window operation would assist beneficiaries of social protection besides reducing duplication. The initiative will optimize efficiency and coordination of multiple programmes at service points, data streams and digital platforms. All the information about Ehsaas programmes and government’s digital resources will be made accessible as a public good in these sites that would create a window for integrated human development in the country. Likewise, Ehsaas physical centres will feature Ehsaas Registration Desks, Ehsaas Payment Rooms with ATMs, Ehsaas Nashonuma hall with complete facilities (registration, anthropometry, payments) and desks of Waseela-eTaleem Digital, One-Woman One-Account, Ehsaas Interest Free Loans, Ehsaas Amdan, Ehsaas Tahafuz, Ehsaas survey along with One-Woman One- Account training room, Ehsaas’ partners hall (with periodic exhibits by partners regarding their services) and Ehsaas Information room. Ehsaas Labour Expert Group The Ehsaas Labour Expert Group (LEG) is one of the several expert committees constituted under the framework of Ehsaas. The mandate of LEG was to propose evidence-based practical recommendations to extend labour welfare measures for the informal sector. LEG finalized its report in March 2019 and its recommendations are now in the pipeline for implementation. Ehsaas Living Standards for Orphanages in Private Sector For the first time in the history of the country, a stakeholders’ committee had been put in place under Ehsaas to stipulate “Living Standards for Orphanages and Child Care Centres” in the country. This is the first time not just in Pakistan but also across the Muslim World that such a historic initiative has been taken by the government for the welfare of orphans and deserving children, aimed at minimizing variation in the orphan care and to support private sector orphanages in raising their service standards nationwide. The committee met 17 times last year and after taking stock of the onground situation, has formulated these standards which are being notified and shared with provinces to ensure compliance, strictly. Ehsaas Governance and Integrity Policy and Observatory With an aim to eliminate corruption and ensure rule-based control on the use of public resources and to promote efficiency, transparency and accountability of results, Ehsaas has institutionalized a Governance and integrity Policy and established an Observatory as one of its over 140 programmes and policy initiatives. Ehsaas Governance and 312
347. Social Protection Integrity Policy and Observatory was officially approved by the Cabinet and launched in November 2019 . The policy is binding on the Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division (PASSD) and its executing agencies- the BISP, Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal, Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund and Trust for Voluntary Organizations. As part of its monitoring arrangement, the Ehsaas Governance Observatory is meant to gauge the status of compliance with the Policy. The policy is meant to address institutionalized corruption and collusion in social welfare organizations. It outlines how boards should function which policies are crucial and the importance of whistle blowing and conflict of interest. It also sets the institutional framework to promote integrity through risk management and assurance, maintenance of risk registers, appointment of accountability officers; error, fraud and corruption frameworks, IT security departments, strengthening of financial management and fiduciary systems, procurement systems, access to information, electronic filing and development of workplans and creation of credible data sets. In addition, the policy is aimed at eliminating discretionary powers. The Governance Observatory serves as an implementation and monitoring tool for the policy. Since, the roll out of the policy and observatory, PASSD and its entities have begun to demonstrate improvement in implementation of the governance reforms. Governance Reforms a. New Payment Model − A refined BVS based Payment Mechanism has been designed in coordination with all stakeholders; − The Refined BVS Payment Solution was further revised for Financial Inclusion of BISP beneficiaries and 'One Woman One Bank Account’; − Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme payments applied for all BISP based payments; − Specific biometric verification service developed by NADRA will be used to curb any fraud; − Beneficiaries can get payments from any BVS Point of Sales, BVS ATMs and BVS Enabled branches of the banks and their partner banks; − Real time reporting of all transactions by banks to BISP MIS; and − Automated Complaint Management System is introduced. b. Monitoring Mechanism: A robust mechanism has been introduced to monitor Ehsaas Kafalat related disbursement activities through: − MIS based monitoring; − Monitoring through BISP field offices; − WhatsApp Groups; − Coordination at local level; and 313
348. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 − Monitoring through Evaluation Wing c. Profiling Exercise on BISP Beneficiaries − Under Ehsaas reforms, BISP with the assistance of NADRA carried out extensive analysis on various parameters to ascertain current living standards of beneficiaries identified through National Socio-Economic Survey carried out in 2010-2011; − Resultantly, more than 800,000 were excluded from the programme in December 2019; and − The same analysis is also being carried out on all beneficiaries identified through on-going Ehsaas survey. d. Payments Related Grievance Redressal System − An automated Payment Complaint Management System (PCMS) has been developed; − Integrated Complaint Resolution Mechanisms (CRMs) have been established with partnering banks Institutions under Ehsaas BISP under Ehsaas Since its inception, BISP- one of the 34 executing agencies of Ehsaas has managed to disburse an amount of Rs 1,112.20 billion through unconditional and conditional cash transfer grants. The year wise released and disbursement on CCT and UCT grants are reflected in table 15.3 and figures Fig-15.5 and Fig-15.6 below: Table-15.3: BISP Financial Achievements (Rs in billion) Financial Year Released Funds Transfer to Cash Grants Number of Beneficiaries Conditional Unconditional Total (million) Cash Transfer Cash Transfer (UCT+CCT) (CCT) (UCT) 2008-09 15.32 0.04 15.81 15.85 1.76 2009-10 39.94 2.89 31.94 34.83 2.58 2010-11 34.42 5.30 29.66 34.96 3.10 2011-12 49.53 4.28 41.60 45.88 3.68 2012-13 50.10 3.17 43.30 46.47 3.75 2013-14 69.62 1.20 65.11 66.31 4.64 2014-15 91.78 0.45 88.59 89.04 5.05 2015-16 102.00 1.88 96.65 98.53 5.21 2016-17 111.50 2.27 102.10 104.37 5.46 2017-18 107.00 3.20 99.00 102.20 5.63 2018-19 116.50 4.01 104.60 108.60 5.78 2019-20 243.71* 3.70 228.67* 232.37 14.40 2020-21** 194.91 0.51 138.78 139.29 6.78 Total 1,226.33 32.90 1,085.81 1,118.70 * Including Emergency Cash Transfer (COVID-19) ** Till 30th April, 2021 Source: Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) 314
349. Social Protection Fig-15 .6: Yearly Cash Grants * Till 31st May, 2021 34.8 50 35.0 98.5 104.4 66.3 102.2 45.9 15.9 Financial Years 2020-21 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 0 2012-13 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 89.0 46.5 100 2011-12 5.6 2010-11 5.5 139.3* 108.6 150 2009-10 5.2 3.8 2013-14 3.7 2012-13 3.1 2011-12 2.6 2010-11 1.8 5.1 200 2008-09 4.6 Cash Disbursement in Rs billion 6.8* 5.8 232.4 250 2019-20 14.1 2009-10 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008-09 Beneficiary Families in Million Fig-15.5: Yearly Number of Beneficiaries Financial Years * Till 31st May, 2021 PPAF under Ehsaas During July March FY2021, PPAF disbursed an amount of Rs 2,640.09 million to its Partner Organizations (POs) for various programmes funded by donors and PPAF’s own resources. The component-wise financial progress update is given in the table 15.4 below: Table-15.4: PPAF Disbursement by Operating Units/Special Initiatives Sr#. 1 2 3 4 Programme Components Institutional Development/Social Mobilization (ID/SM) Livelihood Enhancement and Protection (LEP) Water and Infrastructure (W&I) Education, Health and Nutrition (EHN) Total (Rs million) Amount Disbursed 391.06 1,673.92 540.06 35.05 2640.09 Source: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, Islamabad. During the reporting period, a total of 5,068 Community Institutions were formed and 7,576 community and PO staff members were trained (including 39 percent women) under Institutional Development and Social Mobilization component. Similarly, under the Livelihood Enhancement and Protection (LEP) component, 3,298 individuals received skills and entrepreneurial trainings (34 percent women) and 21,619 productive assets were transferred to ultra and vulnerable poor (94 percent women). A total of 174 Water and Infrastructure sub-projects were completed benefitting 109,873 persons (including 49 percent women). Under Health and Education component, 16 educational facilities were supported during the reporting period; 2,465 new students (73 percent girls) were enrolled and 99,539 consultation visits by patients (60 percent women and girls) treated. A total of 490,368 interest free loans (47 percent loans to women) were disbursed through Interest Free Loans (IFL). Overall, these projects and interventions benefitted around 734,081 poor and marginalized persons including 49 percent women beneficiaries during the reporting period. These highlights of physical progress are given as follows: 315
350. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table-15 .5: Major Achievements by Operating Units of PPAF Programme Components Institutional Development and Social Mobilization  Community Institutions Formed  Community and PO staff trainees (39% women) Livelihoods Enhancement and Protection  Individuals received skills/entrepreneurial training (34% women)  Productive assets transferred to ultra and vulnerable poor (94% women) Water and Infrastructure Sub-projects  Sub-projects completed  Sub-projects beneficiaries (49% women) Education  Educational facilities supported  New students enrolled in programme schools (73% girls) Health  Consultation visits by patients treated under programme health facilities (60% women & girls) Interest-Free Loans Scheme  Number of Interest-Free Loans (47% women) Source: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, Islamabad. (Numbers) Physical Progress 5,068 7,576 3,298 21,619 174 109,873 16 2,465 99,539 490,368 Other Key Initiatives during FY2021 In addition to the above, following key initiatives were taken by the organization during the reporting period:  PPAF completed its COVID-19 Economic Revival Assistance Programme across 21 districts falling in the Extreme Poverty Zones which benefitted 66,590 households through provision of livestock fodder, food packages, agricultural inputs, emergency interest free loans as well as through small enterprise and kitchen gardening. The programme was extended so that the target population can restore their livelihoods, survive this crisis and strengthen their resilience. The total funding included Rs 432.5 million, contributed by the PPAF COVID-19 Emergency Response Fund (Rs 413 million) as well as by the Citi Foundation (Rs 19.5 million).  PPAF completed the Revitalizing Youth Enterprise (RYE) project with the financial support of the Citi Foundation, through one of its partner organization BRSP in districts Ziarat and Killa Saifullah in Balochistan. The 300 youths including 150 young men and 150 young women were trained on technical skills. After imparting technical skills, 200 of them were provided internship/apprenticeship opportunities in the local market.  Under Programme for Poverty Reduction (PPR), an MoU was signed between PPAF and University of Malakand to support university students in their endeavors to accelerate socio-economic development in their respective areas funded by the Italian Government through the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS).  PPAF in collaboration with the UNDP Pakistan, Forest and Wildlife Department and the Government of Balochistan, initiated a mass tree plantation campaign called ‘Chand Meri Zameen, Phool Mera Watan’. The tree plantation campaign implemented 316
351. Social Protection by PPAF ’s Partner Organization Taraqee Foundation, targets multiple cities of Balochistan including Quetta, Pishin and Nushki.  An MoU was singed between PPAF and Engro Foundation who pledged to contribute Rs 70 million to the Ehsaas Amdan Programme to support the deserving families, whose incomes have been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal under Ehsaas The PBM was established for providing assistance to destitute and needy widows, orphan, invalid, infirm and such other persons through its establishment at the district level. During FY2021, an amount of Rs 6.105 billion has been allocated to PBM for implementation of schemes; i.e. Dar-ul Ehsaas (orphanage), Women Empowerment Centres. School for rehabilitation of child labor, Ehsaas Kada (for shelter less senior citizen), Child Support Programme, Individual Financial Assistance etc. Microfinance Initiatives The Pakistan Microfinance Network (PMN) is the national association for retail players in the microfinance industry with a membership of 46 microfinance providers, including Microfinance Banks (regulated by SBP) and Non-Bank Microfinance companies (regulated by SECP). The microfinance industry broadly provides services in three categories of micro-credit, micro-savings and micro-insurance. As shown in Table 15.6, the micro-credit witnessed 3 percent declined in growth with active borrowers during FY2020, while the gross loan portfolio registered 6 percent growth reaching Rs 324.15 billion. Micro-savings, on the other hand, posted a growth of 35 percent under active savers increased to over 64 million and the value of their savings rose to Rs 374.4 billion, an increase of 40 percent over the corresponding year. The number of policyholders in micro-finance industry declined to 7.3 million (14 percent) by the end of the year 2020 along with the value of sum insured which declined by 8 percent, reached to Rs 244.65 billion. Table 15.6: Active Borrowers, Active Savers and Active Policyholders Details Micro-Credit Active Value Borrowers (Rs million) Micro-Savings Active Value Savers (Rs million) Micro-Insurance Policy Sum Insured Holders (Rs million) 2020* 7,005,885 324,155 64,112,657 374,362 7,324,379 244,650 2019* 7,249,943 305,753 47,642,271 267,591 8,479,576 266,748 -244,058 18,402 16,470,386 106,770 -1,155,197 -22,097 Increase/Decrease (Net) Increase/Decrease (%) -3% 6% *: Calendar Year Source: Pakistan Microfinance Network (PMN) 35% 40% -14% -8% The objective of the microfinance initiative is to provide liquidity to the microfinance providers in response to tighter liquidity conditions. It is provided as a package through Microfinance Banks (MFBs), Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), Rural Support Programmes (RSPs) and others, including Commercial Financial Institutions (CFIs) and Non-Government Organizations (NGOs). Table-15.7 presents the number of 317
352. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 micro-credit beneficiaries with outstanding loan portfolios and disbursements by loan providers upto December , 2020. Table 15.7: Micro credit beneficiaries, outstanding loans portfolio and loan disbursement as of Dec. 2020 MFP Total for Pakistan MF sector Apna Microfinance Bank Advans Pakistan FINCA Microfinance Bank First Microfinance Bank Limited Khushhali Bank Mobilink Microfinance Bank NRSP Bank Pak Oman Microfinance Bank Sindh Microfinance Bank Telenor Microfinance Bank Limited U Microfinance Bank Total for MFBS AKHUWAT ASA – Pakistan Community Support Concern DAMEN Farmer Friend Organization MOJAZ Foundation Micro Options Orangi Charitable Trust SAFCO Support Fund Soon Valley Development Programme Total for MFIs National Rural Support Programme Ghazi BarotaTariqiatiIdara Punjab Rural Support Programme Sindh Rural Support Organization Sarhad Rural Support Programme Thardeep Rural Support Programme Total for RSPs AGAHE JWS Pakistan Orix Leasing Organization for Participatory Development Rural Community Development Programme Shah Sachal Sami Foundation Total for Others Source: Pakistan Microfinance Network (PMN) Active Borrowers Outstanding Loans Portfolio (Rs) 324,155,425,831 7,005,885 MFBs 84,397 10,504,573,724 8,517 1,074,437,207 225,288 21,550,509,640 571,125 42,583,434,872 879,637 60,647,662,090 808,239 25,243,147,182 339,130 28,992,356,981 56,061 2,519,259,822 36,410 560,257,733 305,619 12,738,344,368 346,258 31,319,361,775 3,660,681 237,733,345,394 MFIs 814,722 19,376,447,080 420,776 10,339,617,871 44,529 1,379,068,985 114,593 3,323,013,355 41,229 1,037,636,781 32,065 702,195,401 18,679 348,147,616 102,235 2,595,253,531 13,040 362,894,968 2,102,815 54,053,430,566 RSPs 681,943 17,741,796,738 26,229 369,903,956 42,298 793,223,860 73,532 1,523,523,037 4,538 56,676,006 109,582 3,195,338,071 938,122 23,680,461,668 Others 34,779 744,498,504 77,930 2,306,462,245 13,871 186,582,063 4,247 73,063,872 161,096 4,924,725,653 4,420 161,257,063 296,343 8,396,589,400 Number of Loans Disbursed 10,732,090 Disbursements (Rs) 371,030,958,187 461,631 4,436 128,790 351,102 923,304 3,504,294 213,611 36,015 21,390 1,503,149 176,079 7,323,801 52,454,200,171 845,345,342 15,557,445,695 31,216,585,579 66,474,876,985 20,216,293,362 20,939,345,144 2,862,826,100 628,695,000 13,801,846,003 18,251,854,017 243,249,313,397 655,023 1,335,549 28,790 74,731 23,367 13,412 170 7,177 60,714 10,265 2,511,369 26,279,253,120 34,915,083,000 1,722,403,435 4,296,610,000 1,197,015,000 657,932,500 7,779,000 277,337,500 2,983,689,576 473,697,700 87,790,876,831 545,559 14,791 23,393 51,866 3,128 65,960 704,697 23,898,968,800 408,294,000 726,044,000 1,297,425,376 60,421,000 3,146,042,000 29,537,195,176 27,990 64,113 2,141 2,528 85,218 1,559 183,549 1,061,315,000 3,280,405,000 108,454,000 100,575,000 5,402,852,700 90,763,000 10,044,364,700 Zakat The subject of Zakat was devolved to the provinces and federal areas following the 18th Constitutional amendment. The federal government is responsible for the collection of Zakat and its distribution to the provinces/federal areas in accordance with the Zakat distribution formula approved by the Council of Common Interests. A total amount of Rs 7929.16 million was collected during FY2020 and distributed during FY2021 as per details given in the Table 15.8: 318
353. Social Protection Table 15 .8: Disbursement of Zakat Federal Areas/ Provinces Federal Areas ICT Gilgit-Baltistan FATA Provincial Punjab Sindh Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan % Share 7% of total Zakat Collection is distributed amongst federal Areas 35.14% of 7% 18.57 % of 7% 46.29 % of 7% Total Federal Share of provinces after deduction of above federal payments 57.36 % of 93 % 23.71 % of 93 % 13.82% of 93 % 5.11 % of 93 % Total Provincial G. Total Source: Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division (Rs million) Allocated/ Released Budget 2020-21 195.041 103.071 256.929 555.041 4229.795 1748.404 1019.103 376.817 7374.119 7929.160 Employees Old-Age Benefits Institution (EOBI) The EOBI is playing a vital role in poverty alleviation by paying pension and grants to retired workers and their families. Currently EOBI has registered 437,472 Old-age pensioners, 225,465 Survivors’ pensioners and 11,056 Invalidity pensioners. Main Features of the EOBI Schemes are: • Old-age pension on attaining the age of 60 years in case of male workers and 55 years in case of female and mine workers. • Invalidity pension on sustaining invalidity affecting more than one third of normal of the insured person’s earning. • Survivors’ pension to the following in case of death of insured person/pensioner: − Surviving spouse@ 100 percent pension till life, or − Surviving male children till 15 years of age, or − Surviving female children till 18 years of age or their marriage, whichever is earlier, or − Surviving parents for 5 years, if any insured person/pensioner is not survived by spouse or children. • Old-Age Grant for those not meeting the benchmark for old-age pension. The grant is paid in lump sum to insured persons who have less than fifteen years’ insurable employment but attain the age of 60/55 years The EOBI disbursements, although not very handsome, are a sustainable source of income for the insured persons and their survivors who are generally below the poverty 319
354. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 line . In this way, the EOBI benefits have proved effective in preventing the insured persons and their survivors from falling into poverty and enabled those living in poverty to escape from the poverty trap to some extent. The details of monthly disbursed benefits are shown in Table 15.9. Table 15.9: Achievements of EOBI during July- March FY2021 Benefits Number of beneficiaries July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Old-age Pension 234,128 235,271 236,100 236,796 237,388 237,808 238,709 239,223 240,247 Invalidity Pension 5,131 5,158 5,170 5,174 5,193 5,187 5,208 5,219 5,246 Survivors’ Pension 145,425 146,412 147,265 148,225 149,132 150,266 151,387 152,327 153,480 Old-Age Grant 308 385 352 533 591 511 474 490 601 Total Source: Employees' Old Age Benefits Institution (EOBI), Karachi Total Disbursement (Rs million) 20,539 442.0 12,826 256.0 34,063 Workers Welfare Fund (WWF) The WWF was established under the Workers Welfare Fund Ordinance, 1971, for providing low-cost housing and other amenities to industrial labour. During July-March, FY2021 expenditures amounting to Rs 2.47 billion have been incurred on 33,679 scholarship cases, while Rs 573.44 million has been disbursed as marriage grants @ Rs 100,000 per worker benefitting 5736 workers' families. The WWF has also disbursed Rs 496.55 million as death grant @ Rs 500,000 per worker– covering 994 cases of mishaps all over the country. Way forward The past two and a half years have been remarkable phase in terms of performance and expansion of social protection in the country. A comprehensive strategy was developed for the largest social protection programme which has been revised further with regard to post-COVID scenario. Many innovative programmes have been conceptualized, rolled out and taken to scale and few existing programmes which were continued have undergone extensive and deep-rooted reform. Through an unprecedented effort, wideranging reform has been implemented in the governance system. There are five priorities of the government to implement the social protection policies under Ehsaas programme. Firstly, upscaling of the existing programmes so that they have their widest outreach possible. Secondly, appropriate investment in instructional communications so that individuals can actually benefit from the programmes that have been rolled out. Thirdly, the institutionalization of one window operations of Ehsaas so that all programmes and policies can be brought under one umbrella and citizens can be facilitated to take benefit. Fourthly, completion of the 2021 Ehsaas database on the basis of which the list of beneficiaries for Ehsaas programme will be expanded and targets would be improved. Lastly, a move from untargeted to targeted subsidies, these five priorities will continue with an aggressive governance reform which has been a hallmark of Ehsaas. 320
355. Chapter 16 Climate Change Pakistan is vulnerable to the effects of climate change which has occurred due to rapid industrialization with substantial geopolitical consequences . As things stand, the country is at a crossroads for a much warmer world. According to German Watch, Pakistan has been ranked in top ten of the countries most affected by climate change in the past 20 years. The reasons behind include the impact of back-to-back floods since 2010, the worst drought episode (1998-2002) as well as more recent droughts in Tharparkar and Cholistan, the intense heat wave in Karachi (in Southern Pakistan generally) in July 2015, severe windstorms in Islamabad in June 2016, increased cyclonic activity and increased incidences of landslides and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the northern parts of the country. Pakistan’s climate change concerns include increased variability of monsoons, the likely impact of receding Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) glaciers due to global warming and carbon soot deposits from trans-boundary pollution sources, threatening water inflows into Indus River System (IRS), severe water-stressed conditions particularly in arid and semi-arid regions impacting agriculture and livestock production negatively, decreasing forest cover and increased level of saline water in the Indus delta also adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and breeding grounds of fish. Box-I: Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin and impact of climate change Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) took stock of Pakistan's water resource availability, delineating water supply system and its sources including precipitation and river flows and the impact of increasing climatic variability on the water supply system. The focus was on the current water usage and requirements in the agricultural sector and how changing climatic conditions will affect the consumption patterns. With inflows expected to become more variable in the coming years, the severity of climatic extremities will become more pronounced, driving up water demands in addition to the demand increase from a rising population and urbanization. Over extraction of groundwater resources is also disturbing the water calculus and pushing the country towards a critical demand-supply gap. Pakistan's water sector remains vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. To ensure that Pakistan is adequately prepared to deal with the changing climatic realities, it is important to understand the nexus between water availability, agricultural productivity and climatic variability. The work has endeavoured to highlight the same indicating the existing availability of water based on a single river system which is Indus Basin System and its tributaries; future projections of water requirements for crops, livestock, forest, rangelands, ecological and municipal sectors and the challenges Pakistan faces in accommodating the increasing demand for water from competing sectors. Further, limited water conservation practices that are contributing towards the degradation of water quality and loss.
356. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 In light of the analysis conducted , it is clear that due to competing pressures of water demand from different sectors and a widening demand-supply gap, there is a need to guide the shift from irrigation to water management in order to address the challenges that come with increasing climatic variability and water scarcity. Some key recommendations are proposed signalling the need to adopt a more holistic approach towards water management and conservation, which takes into account the available resources, its usage, challenges and projected water requirements as well as future course of action to ensure that Pakistan is able to boost its agricultural productivity without drying out its water resources. Source: FAO Pakistan report on water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan The Government of Pakistan has evolved policy frameworks backed by strategy to address various aspects of the climate change including major policy and climate related interventions. In order to mitigate the negative impacts of automobile sector on environment and giving a boost to the economy, Government has approved its National Electric Vehicle Policy targeting a 30 percent shift to electric vehicles by 2030. Pakistan will host World Environment Day 2021 in partnership with UN Environment on 5th June 2021. This year’s observance of World Environment Day will be on the theme of ‘ecosystem restoration’ and will focus on resetting our relationship with nature. This event will also mark the formal launch of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021 – 2030. This aims to prevent, halt and reverse the degradation of ecosystems on every continent and in every ocean. The Government has taken different initiatives to mitigate the effects of environment and climate. Major Initiatives in Forestry Sector Pakistan is forest deficient country, mainly due to arid and semi-arid climate in large parts of the country. The country is maintaining 4.51 million hectares to 5.01percent area under forest cover, out of which 3.44 million hectares forests exist on state-owned lands and remaining on communal and private lands. Though the forestry having meager share of 2.1 percent in agriculture, it provides foundations of life on earth through ecological function, regulates the climate and water resources and serves as habitat for plants and animals1. Rapidly growing population coupled with poverty and lack of awareness is leading to illegal and unsustainable logging and overharvesting of wood for fuel and charcoal continue to cause deforestation. Moreover, forest fires, natural hazards along with pests and diseases further contribute to the declining rate. All these issues threaten the survival of species, people’s livelihoods and undermines the vital services that forests provide. To meet the domestic needs and to maintain the existing forest stand together with meeting need of improving the forest cover. The government has taken different measures for the revival of forestry sector, the detail is as follows: I. Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP) The TBTTP is built on successful initiative of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Billion Trees 1 Compendium on Environment Statistics of Pakistan (PBS) 322
357. Climate Change Afforestation Project (BTAP). Following the success and confirmation by the independent monitors, the government has decided to set a goal of "10 Billion Tree Plantation" across the country. The programme was approved by ECNEC with the project cost of Rs. 125.184 billion. During Phase-I of the programme, plantation / regeneration of 3.29 billion plants will be completed. The programme has achieved plantation of about 350 million during July-March FY2021 and cumulatively has attained 814.671 million plants through regeneration. Through this programme around 100,000 daily wagers have been employed uptill March 2021. The Government is confident that a target to plant one billion trees will be achieved by June 2021. This project is expected to deliver environmental dividend in preserving atmospheric health, reducing greenhouse gas effects, lowering cases of random floods, lowering rains, droughts and enhancing other biodiversity supportive actions. It is anticipated that approximately 1.5 million jobs will be created directly or indirectly. Table 16.1: Physical & Financial Progress FY2020 & FY2021(July-March) S. No Provinces 1. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 2. Punjab 3. Sindh 4. Balochistan 5. Azad Jammu & Kashmir 6. Gilgit Baltistan Total Number of Trees (million) Area (Hectare) Budget Utilization (Rs-million) 304.24 340,068 5,509.14 61.5 20,806 5,216.04 323.84 19,500 1,290.64 5.42 2,435 658.979 106.937 40,512 1,536.266 10.734 1713 4,59.589 814.671 125,034 14,670.654 Source: Ministry of Climate Change II. Protected Areas Initiative The overall objective of ‘Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme’ is to revive Forest and Wildlife resources in Pakistan, to improve the overall conservation of the existing Protected Areas; encourage eco-tourism, community engagement and job creation through the conservation. To meet challenges faced, to protect and preserve wildlife, TBTTP is aiming at better management of 23 protected areas. The initiative will increase venues for international standards of Eco-tourism and is aiming to provide about 5,500 green jobs. The total cost of this initiative shall be Rs. 3.89 billion and it will include community engagement as follows:  Seven "Autonomous Protected Areas Management Boards" will be developed to provide strategic direction to guide, direct and monitor the activities of executing parties.  Under the Protected Area Initiative 66 communities will be engaged which will create job opportunities for them. 323
358. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21  Sixty five Village Conservation Committees (VCCs) will be established within first year of implementation.  Ten Village development plans will be designed after the VCCs are established within the first year, improving livelihood and financial conditions of the communities.  During the first year of project, 805 community watchers for Protected areas will be hired accordingly Table 16.2: Protected Areas in Pakistan Province Name Islamabad Capital Territory 1. Margalla Hills National Park Punjab 2. Kheri Murat National Park 3. Salt Range National Park 4. Rakh Choti Dalana Gilgit-Baltistan 5. Deosai National Park 6. Khunjerab National Park 7. Himalaya National Park 8. Nanga Parbat National Park Sindh 9. Takar National Park 10. Karunjar National Park Balochistan 11. Astola Marine Protected Area 12. Takatu State Forest Area 13. Hingol National Park 14. Chiltan-Hazar ganji National Park Azad Jammu & Kashmir 15. Machiara National Park 16. Toli Pir National Park 17. Deva Vatala National Park Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 18. Lulusar-Dudipat Sar National Park 19. Saif-ul-Maluk National Park 20. Broghil National Park 21. Chitral Gol National Park 22. Ayubia National Park 23. Sheikh Badin National Park Total Area Source: Ministry of Climate Change Area (sq. km) 173.9 56.2 52.6 N.A 3622.1 44506.0 2263.0 1785.6 435.1 N.A 401.5 38.9 6290.5 278.0 135.4 50.4 14.5 303.6 55.6 1347.6 78.0 33.7 155.4 62077.6 III. Wildlife Management The challenges for the protection and preservation of wildlife of Margallah Hills National Park (MHNP) could be managed through improvement and effective implementation of Islamabad Wildlife (Protection, Preservation, Conservation and Management) Ordinance 1979, legislation and institutional strengthening. The following measures have been taken for the wildlife management of Margallah Hills National Park:  Enhanced management of Protected Areas i.e., Margallah Hills National Park by setting goals on international standards  Revival of critically endangered spices and their Habitats  Restriction of illegal wildlife trafficking and hunting in ICT  Rehabilitation/ Rescue Center for Confiscated Wildlife in Islamabad 324
359. Climate Change  Zero plastic in hiking trails and other areas of MHNP, “Plastic free National Park”  Improvements of Islamabad Wildlife (Protection, Preservation, Conservation and Management) Ordinance 1979 legislation and its implementation  Engage different universities students to conduct scientific studies in MHNP  Awareness about the importance of wildlife in MHNP to students and general public Natural Capital Account Pakistan in a recent development is partnering with World Bank to explore and formulate Natural Capital Account of protected areas that can provide detailed statistics for better management of the economy. National Capital Account can be used to help identify the distributional consequences of changes to land use, forest cover and ecosystem function which will help the government to gauge whether planned economic growth is inclusive. The outcome will help the government to design the evidence-based national forest policy and plans. Improved institutional framework and strategies are needed for the achievement of SDGs and implementing the SDGs pertaining to climate change like SDG 15 (sustainable forest management), SDG 7 (Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), SDG 12 (sustainable consumption and production), SDG 6 (protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes) and SDG 13 (climate change action).It requires a solid framework of indicators and statistical data for policymaking to monitor progress and ensure accountability. Natural Capital Accounting expands the scope of traditional reporting and can meet this need Participation in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) Reduced Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) is a concept adopted by the countries under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2010. The concept relates to absorption of atmospheric carbon through forest resource. Due to accumulation of carbon in standing trees their financial value increases. Carbon stocked in forests is traded in carbon markets. The REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) is being implemented in Pakistan with a grant of $ 3.8 million since July 2015. Pakistan was awarded the grant through a competitive process by Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) of the World Bank. International and national consultants were hired to prepare documents for the four elements required to complete the REDD+ readiness phase. Meanwhile, in 2018, an additional grant of $ 4.01 million has also been awarded by FCPF to further support the preparedness activities in Pakistan till June 2020. The Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL) of Pakistan has been submitted to UNFCCC. The design of National Forest Monitoring System has also been finalized. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Revision As per Paris Agreement, parties are obligated to submit revised NDC every five years with enhanced commitments. Government of Pakistan is in the process of revising its 325
360. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 NDCs for a more robust and ambitious NDCs covering all economic sectors . For the revised NDCs, Pakistan is aiming to highlight the projects which have been conducted with its indigenous resources in the last five years like institutional arrangements, governance approaches and also include new gases to GHG inventory and new sectors like Blue Carbon, Electric Vehicles, Health co-benefits, Air pollution and Youth etc. for enhanced commitments. The revised NDCs will be institutionalizing a ‘whole-ofgovernment’ approach to revising, reviewing and reporting on climate action. The enhancement activities like Updated Greenhouse Gas Inventory, mapping of Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and options to strengthen resilience of most vulnerability to climate change, the selection and application of appropriate tools and methodologies for adaption and mitigation in priority sectors, developing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) for the different NDC sectors which allows government to ratchet up climate ambition, conducting Gender and climate change nexus, Youth and climate change nexus, Health, Climate change and air pollution nexus and estimation of emission from refrigerant gases. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory The Government is committed to submit its first biennial update (BUR-I) to United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and information on national GHGs inventory is as an essential component of the report. In this respect, national GHGs inventory is prepared using the standard techniques contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2006, Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (using IPCC GHGI Software, version 2.69). This inventory provides information regarding GHGs namely CO2, CH4 and N2O emitted from the anthropogenic sources from all sectors of economy including energy, Industrial Product & Product Use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry and other land use and waste. Carbon Markets In line with commitment to the Paris Agreement under Article 6 facility Pakistan intends to establish a robust and cohesive carbon market. Carbon market can generate fiscal resources and green jobs to support sustainable recovery from economic regression in the medium term. To develop local “carbon trading” and participate in international carbon market; the MoCC has conducted a study on the Introduction of Carbon Pricing Instruments with support of UNFCCC. As a result of the study National Committee on the Establishment of Carbon Market (NCEC) was established after approval of Prime Minister. Further, NCEC is tasked to design domestic Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) framework, Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) infrastructure and procedures underpinned by communication strategy and capacity building and training of the relevant stakeholders. Blue Carbon Ministry of Climate Change with the support of the World Bank conducted Blue Carbon rapid assessment for Pakistan to figure out how and where to act to protect and bolster blue carbon opportunities. Accordingly, Pakistan envisions gaining value from blue carbon in a plethora of ways that can be beneficial for climate and ocean. The assessment 326
361. Climate Change concluded that in total , mangrove forests and mapped tidal marshes store approximately 21 million tonnes of organic carbon (Corg)or 76.4 million tonnes CO2e. It is estimated that the Sindh government’s Indus Delta Mangroves REDD+ Project, which is being conducted on 350,000 ha, will remove 25 million CO2e by 2030 and 150 million by 2075. This project will result in removals equivalent to approximately 0.25-0.5 percent of Pakistan’s annual emissions. Source: Ministry of Climate Change Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Programme The government recognizes access to drinking water and sanitation services as a fundamental human right as enshrined in the Constitution of Pakistan under Article 9 that “no person shall be deprived of life or liberty save in accordance with law”. The commitment of government for creating an enabling environment for water and sanitation has been reinforced through launching of Clean Green Pakistan Movement (CGPM) by the Prime Minister in October 2018, showing the highest level of commitment to the subject. Ministry of Climate Change is developing a national WASH programme, in collaboration with the provinces, as COVID-19 response strategy with a key focus on liquid waste management and effective municipal service delivery. Sector Financing for Water Sanitation and Hygiene: Pakistan spent around 0.22 percent of its GDP on water and sanitation in 2019 as compared to 0.16 percent of its GDP in 2012-13. Pakistan needs Rs 450 billion annually, based on SDGs costing tool of World Bank/UNICEF, to meet SDG targets of WASH by 327
362. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 2030 . The overall budget allocation in FY2020 was Rs 158 billion annually for WASH. The spending was Rs 87 billion annually through public sector with overall utilization of only 55 percent of budgetary allocations. At federal level, Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) has been entrusted the role of policy formulation, standards settings, reporting and coordination for regional and international commitments. The WASH Strategic Unit at the MoCC rolled out Joint Sector Reviews (JSRs) of WASH by arranging a training workshop of key provincial departments and sector partners. The capacity development on key technical areas is being included in new national WASH programme of the MoCC. The detail of budget allocation and expenditure for FY2020 is given table 16.3 below: Table 16.3: Budgetary Allocations and Expenditures for WASH FY2020 Province/ Region Allocations – Rs Million Current Development Total Spending – Rs Million Current Development Total Balochistan 5,970 16,553 22,523 6,068 6,532 12,601 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8,288 19,913 28,201 10,549 7,021 17,570 Punjab 10,071 31,334 41,405 10,162 17,477 27,639 Sindh 8,849 47,450 56,300 5,455 15,477 20,932 470 9,579 10,049 470 7,573 8,043 33,648 124,829 158,477 32,705 54,080 86,785 Federal Total Source: Ministry of Climate Change For 2021, the Federal and Provincial Governments allocated Rs 150 billion in the country in spite of the challenge of resource constraints due to Covid-19. This is the highest in Balochistan province with Rs 2,815 per capita followed by Federal and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The per capita allocation has been the lowest in the Punjab province. The province/region wise allocation and per capita allocation has been given in table 16.4 below: Table 16.4: Allocation for WASH FY2021 Province/ Region Current – Rs Million Balochistan 6,210 Development – Rs Million 28,418 Total Rs Million 34,627 Per capita - Rs 2,815 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8,686 25,302 33,988 1,082 Punjab 6,289 31,359 37,649 338 Sindh 8,345 25,108 33,453 684 431 10,100 10,531 1,210 Federal Source: Ministry of Climate Change Pakistan Climate Resilient Urban Policy Framework Climate change is a real threat to the sustainability of our cities. MoCC is formulating Pakistan Climate Resilient Urban Policy Framework, which will take into account 328
363. Climate Change opportunities and challenges in achieving green and resilient urban development in Pakistan with special reference to climate change . PSDP Project "Climate Resilient Urban Human Settlements"(CRUHS) Unit to address the urban environmental and climatic issues in a sustainable and resilient way is also under execution. The CRUHS Unit will serve for 05 years as the Secretariat to follow-up and arrange the conduction of various research studies on developing the Climate Resilient Sustainable Cities. The Ministry of Climate Change will be equipped to effectively look after at national level the subject of urban affairs & human settlements and efficiently deal with all related matters in coordination with the sectoral partners, including the provincial governments and local authorities; private sector and multilateral and bilateral agencies. Gender Dimension in Climate Action In recent years, the gendered nature of climate change impacts has been recognized by researchers and development practitioners. In view of this, MoCC has begun to address this climate change-gender nexus. A working group has been established on gender and climate change and they are working on mainstreaming gender in to existing and future policies, plans and initiatives which will address different sectors vulnerable to climate change like water, agriculture, fishery etc. Additionally, an initiative is also underway with International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) where country capacity will be strengthened to implement gender responsive climate change program and a national Climate Change Gender Action Plan CCGAP will be finalized. Youth and Climate Change Perception Survey Pakistan is the fifth most populous and one of the youngest countries in the world. Almost 27 percent of the Pakistani population is between 15 to 29 years. The number of youth in Pakistan are expected to peak till 2050. Youth remains the biggest stakeholder in climate action due to the intergenerational nature of climate challenges and, hence as such deserve to be at the forefront of all planned policies and action. Towards that end, the MoCC, in collaboration with UNDP conducted a youth survey aimed at gauging the perception and knowledge of Pakistan's youth regarding climate change. The survey aimed to collect information on a host of subject areas that were divided into five themes such as Climate Change knowledge, Climate Change vulnerability, Adaptation strategies, Regulatory knowledge and Climate advocacy. The results indicate the highly prevalent impact of climate change on Pakistan. Marked differences in understanding of climate change were observed in cohorts that belonged to rural or urban areas. Majority (70 percent) of the phone respondents reported limited to no knowledge of the concept of environmental sustainability, whereas over 60 percent of the digital respondents claimed to have high or very high understanding of the concept of climate change, highlighting a major gap in climate change awareness within digitally challenged youth of Pakistan. The government initiatives launched in order to promote the green economy or to provide financial support against those who 329
364. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 had suffered due to climate change were well acknowledged as agents of change with 84 percent of the respondents crediting increased knowledge through these ventures and programs . Clean Green Pakistan Index and Champions Programme In Clean Green Pakistan Movement (CGPM), the MoCC started Clean Green Pakistan Index for ranking the cities against the performance of five pillars of Clean Green Pakistan i.e., drinking water, sanitation, hygiene, solid waste management and plantation. The Index is calculated by comparing the cities with 35 performance indicators. The pilot has been successfully implemented in 20 cities of Pakistan during 2020 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab and was concluded in October 2020. It is now being scaled up in 93 cities of Pakistan across the country from 2021. The CGPI is becoming a key tool for integrating mutual accountability mechanisms of WASH in Pakistan. Ranking of cities in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is given in fig-16.1 and fig-16.2 below: Fig- 16.1: Cities' Ranking - Punjab 90 80 70 69.50 74.29 74.81 64.39 56.10 60 76.54 70.46 56.27 53.46 60.62 65.87 62.97 53.65 50 40 30 20 10 0 Fig- 16.2: Cities' Ranking - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 70 60 52.72 57.50 52.97 45.39 50 40 34.17 30.97 30 21.19 20 10 0 Abbottabad Kohat Source: Ministry of Climate Chage 330 Mardan Bannu Peshawar Dera Ismail Khan Swat
365. Climate Change National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Pakistan has officially initiated the process of creating a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for building resilience to climate change. NAP is widely seen as one of the most important mechanisms for adapting to climate change. They aim to reduce vulnerabilities to climate impacts by creating comprehensive medium and long-term plans, including the integration of adaptation measures into national policy. Pakistan will be using the National Adaptation Plan process and its outcomes to enhance the adaptation elements of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a central aspect of the Paris Agreement. Pakistan has been using nature-based solutions and ‘ecosystem-based adaptation’ in its national efforts to build climate resilience. The National Adaptation Plan process will be looking to build on these existing nature-based approaches which include the Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Programme, the Ecosystem Restoration Fund and the Recharge Pakistan initiative. Coordination with International Environmental Agencies on Environmental Issues MoCC is responsible for coordination with international environmental agencies on environmental issues, signing & implementation of MOUs and handling of matters related to GSP+. Moreover, it also represents Pakistan at international fora with respect to the signed Conventions and Protocols. The major achievements during 2020-21 are as under:  Ratification of Minamata Convention on Mercury and Organizing Awareness Seminars for Compliance of Minamata Convention.  UNEP approved funds for the project titled “Strengthening of National Legislation and Capacity Building of Stakeholders for Sound Chemicals and Hazardous Waste Management in Pakistan”.  A project titled “Development of National Inventory of Plastic Waste in Pakistan” has been submitted to Basel Convention Regional Centre, Tehran for funding under Small Grant Programme (SGP) on plastic waste.  Completed a project titled “Comprehensive Elimination and Destruction of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Pakistan”. National Ozone Unit (NOU) The National Ozone Unit remained actively involved in multiple activities to attain targets relating to containing Ozone Depleting materials. The Unit has successfully distributed Hydro Chloro Fluoro Carbon (HCFC) quota for 2021 among 21 eligible importers on 50 percent compliance target from baseline of 248.11 Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) tons under Montreal Protocol. The Unit held pre consultative workshop for draft proposal of Hydrofluorocarbons Phase Out Management Plan (HPMP)-III for which all the stakeholders including Industries, Imports and government departments 331
366. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 have been taken on board . This has enabled NOU to make an overarching strategy for the HPMP stage III. The draft has been prepared which focuses on the HCFC phasing out while promoting ozone-friendly, climate-friendly and energy-efficient technologies to the possible extent. The proposed strategy also includes the establishment of a Recovery, Recycling and Reclaims (RR&R) center as well as raising awareness of stakeholders on the Kigali Amendment and its future obligation phase-down. Environmental Protection MoCC is mandated to enforce the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997 in the Islamabad Capital Territory. The following major activities are being undertaken by Pak-EPA: Water Quality An Integrated Surveillance System to monitor the Islamabad’s natural streams and river water samples is established and samples were collected and analysed, from nalah, Margallah hills and sewerage system of ICT. Teams collected eight water samples from Wah Garden and 25 water samples from CDA filtration plants, industrial and slaughter waste/effluent water. Five bore water samples were collected from (Barakahu). Lab/NEQS directorate July 2020 to March 2021 collected fifty-two (52) water samples and tested in EPA laboratory. Ten environmental industries/sites were visited to check Environmental Management Plan status. Air Quality Pak-EPA has established an active and reliable monitoring system to routinely monitor air emissions of steel, pharma, aluminium, food industries, brick kilns and construction sites. Fixed monitoring station located in H-8, Islamabad. Data is gathered and analyzed on 24-hourly basis and disseminated to the public through Pak-EPA website (wwww.environment.gov.pk) and official social media accounts. Fig-16.3: Air Quality Annual Average 2020 332
367. Climate Change Legal /enforcement directorate has taken following actions during 2020-21  One hundred sixty six notices served upon the violators for causing Environmental Pollution in Islamabad including Brick Kilns, Hospitals, Industries of all users of Polythene Bags.  Pak-EPA issued Forty seven Environmental Protection Orders on violation of Environmental Laws/Rules/Regulations including Brick Kilns, Project Proponents of different Housing Societies, Hospitals, Steel Industries, Polluters, Violators of Plastic Shopping Bags Regulations.  Environmental Monitoring and Implementation Teams confiscated a volume of 700 kilograms Polythene Bags from different outlets/selling points in ICT.  Due to non-compliance of National Environmental Quality Standards eight Brick Kilns were sealed. Ban on Polythene Plastic Bags in Islamabad Capital Territory In order to curb plastic pollution, Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency with the support of Ministry of Climate Change imposed a ban on polythene plastic bags in ICT vide SRO. No.92 (KE)/219, dated 22nd July, 2019 that imposed a complete ban on polythene bags (Manufacture, import, storage and Usage) in ICT which also includes fines on manufacturers, shopkeepers and users Rs. 100,000, Rs 10,000 and Rs 5000, respectively.  Launched integration of Mobile App on “Ban on Polythene Bags” into City Islamabad application.  MoCC organized First National Dialogue and Stakeholder Convening with the Collect and Recycle (Core) Alliance on topic “Collective action approach to deal with packaging waste”at Islamabad.  Conducted a detailed survey on waste to help in policy building.  MoCC in collaboration with European Union Switch Asia is preparing the waste reduction and minimization of plastic waste management. In addition to this, Ministry is working on expanded producer responsibility tools to facilitate effective plastic waste management and build capacity of relevant stakeholders across the country (both federal & provincial level). Global Change Impact Studies The Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) is corporate body, governed by an independent Board of Governors, with the mandate of conducting research on climate change and its impacts and possible remedies. Specific research themes include the climate change profiles of Pakistan, impacts on critical socio-economic sectors and identification of appropriate adaptation/mitigation strategies. 333
368. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Green Climate Fund (GCF) Projects under the Ministry of Climate Change GCF was established to limit greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and to help vulnerable societies adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The ongoing projects under GCF are as under: 1. Scaling-up of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF II) Risk Reduction in Northern Pakistan MoCC has initiated US$ 37 million project with UNDP funded by GCF. The project objective is to reduce the vulnerability of the communities in Northern Pakistan to climate change-induced natural disaster risks as a result of GLOFs. Currently the project targets 18 districts (10 in Gilgit Baltistan & 8 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). In target communities, 95 percent of households able to receive and respond to early warnings and take the appropriate action, At least 250 small-scale engineering structures established to reduce the effects of GLOF events on livelihoods, such as tree plantation, controlled drainage and mini dams, 50 weather monitoring stations to collect meteorological data in catchment areas; 408 river discharge sensors to collect river flood data. This data will inform hydrological modelling and help develop village hazard watch groups and to improve food security and reduce flood risks due to deforestation and inefficient water use, 65,000 women will be trained in home gardening, 240 waterefficient farming technologies will be installed and 35,000 hectares of land will be reforested. 2. Transforming the Indus Basin with Climate Resilient Agriculture and ClimateSmart Water Management GCF signed this project with FAO and granted $ 35 million. The project objective is to transform agriculture in the Basin by increasing resilience among the most vulnerable farmers and strengthening Government’s capacity to support their communities to adapt. It will build farmers resilience to climate change through skills, knowledge and technology and create a wider enabling environment for continuous adaptation and expanded sustainable uptake of climate-resilient approaches. The project will be implemented in eight districts in Punjab and Sindh Provinces over a six-year period at a total cost of $ 47.69 million with a co-financing from both the provinces. Global Environment Facility (GEF) The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established to tackle the environmental problems. The Ministry of Climate Change has currently a portfolio of $ 19.4 million with four projects under implementation. Sustainable Forest Management to Secure Multiple Benefits in High Conservation Value Forests. ($ 9.3 million) UNDP 2. Generating Global Environmental benefits from Improved Decision-Making Systems and Local Planning in Pakistan. ($1 million) UNDP 3. Pakistan Snow Leopard Eco-System Protection Program. ($4.6 million) UNDP 1. 334
369. Climate Change 4 . Reversing Deforestation and Degradation in High Conservation Value Chilgoza Pine Forests. ($ 4.5 M) FAO Conclusion Pakistan has been consistently ranked as one of the most affected countries by climate change. The population is facing challenges of natural hazard like floods, droughts and cyclones, which have been growing in intensity and frequency with the passage of time. The government is taking different measures to effectively tackle climate change challenges, such as improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to enhance disaster preparedness climate change resilience and by improving forest management and biodiversity conservation. The government has launched TBTTP for the revival of Forest and Wildlife resources in Pakistan. Through this programme the government will improve the overall conservation of the existing Protected Areas, encourage eco-tourism, community engagement and will create jobs through the conservation. 335
370.                              
372.                              
373. Annex I Contingent Liabilities Contingent liabilities are possible obligations that arise from past events and their existence will be confirmed only by the occurrence or non-occurrence of one or more uncertain future events not wholly within the control of the government . Contingent liabilities should be examined in the same manner as a proposal for a loan, taking into account, inter alia, the credit-worthiness of the borrower, the amount and risks sought to be covered by a sovereign guarantee, the terms of the borrowing, justification and public purpose to be served, probabilities that various commitments will become due and possible costs of such liabilities. Hence, such off-balance sheet transactions cannot be overlooked in order to gain a holistic view of a country’s fiscal position and unveil the hidden risks associated with the obligations made by the government outside the budget. Contingent liabilities of Pakistan are primarily guarantees issued on behalf of Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs). The sovereign guarantee is normally extended to improve financial viability of projects or activities undertaken by the government entities with significant social and economic benefits. It allows public sector companies to borrow money at lower costs or on more favourable terms. In addition to that in some cases permits to fulfil the requirement where sovereign guarantee is a precondition for concessional loans from bilateral/multilateral agencies to sub-sovereign borrowers. The volume of new government guarantees issued during a financial year is limited under Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act which stipulates that the government shall not accord guarantees aggregating to an amount exceeding two percent of the GDP in any financial year including those for rupee lending, rate of return, outright purchase agreements and other claims and commitments provided the renewal of existing guarantees shall be considered as issuing a new guarantee. During July 2020 to March 2021, the government issued fresh/rollover guarantees/Letter of Comforts (LoCs) aggregating to Rs 83 billion or 0.2 percent of GDP. The outstanding stock of guarantees was Rs 2,410 billion at end March 2021.
374. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 1 : Summary of Outstanding Government Guarantees (All figures are Rs in billion unless otherwise stated) Domestic 1,613 External 796 Total Outstanding Government Guarantees 2,410 Memo: External (US$ in million) 5,213 Exchange Rate (Pak Rupee/US Dollar) 153 Source: Debt Policy Coordination Office, Staff Calculation, Ministry of Finance Guarantees issued against commodity operations are not included in the stipulated limit of 2 percent of GDP as the loans are secured against the underlying commodity and are essentially self-liquidating. These guarantees are issued against the commodity financing operations undertaken by TCP, PASSCO and provincial governments. The outstanding stock of commodity operations was Rs 701 billion at end March 2021. 338
375. Annex II Tax Expenditure Estimates - FY2021 Tax expenditure for FY2021 has been estimated at Rs 1 ,314.3 billion as per following Details: Income Tax Tax expenditure in respect of income taxes during FY2021 has been reflected in Table 1 below: Table 1: Tax Expenditure Estimates of Income Tax –FY 2021 1. Allowances 2. Tax Credits 3. Exemptions from Total Income 4. Reduction in Tax Rates 5. Reduction in Tax Liability 6. Exemption from Specific Provisions 7. Others /Miscellaneous Total Source: Federal Board of Revenue (Rs million) 37,318 105,342 267,115 124 2,839 2,687 32,621 448,046 Sales Tax Major exemptions in sales tax and their tax expenditures during FY2021 are presented in Table 2. Table 2: Tax Expenditure Estimates of Sales Tax –FY 2021 1. Zero Rating under Fifth Schedule to Sales Tax Act 1990 2. Exemption under 6th Schedule on (Imports) 3. Exemption under 6th Schedule on Local Supplies 4. Reduced Rates Under 8thSchedule (1%) 5. Reduced Rates Under 8thSchedule (2%) 6. Reduced Rates Under 8thSchedule (5 %) 7. Reduced Rates Under 8th Schedule (7 %) 8. Reduced Rates Under 8th Schedule (8%) 9. Reduced Rates Under 8th Schedule (10%) 10. Reduced Rates Under 8th Schedule (12%) 11. Sales Tax on Cellular mobile Phones under 9th Schedule Total Source: Federal Board of Revenue (Rs million) 12,887 173,808 156,134 330 90,288 27,108 496 1,396 69,592 19,321 27,096 578,456
376. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Customs Following is the break-up of estimates of tax expenditure of main exemptions in Customs Duties for FY2021 . Table 3: Tax Expenditure Estimates of Customs Duties – FY 2021 1.Chapter-99 Exemptions 2.FTA & PTA Exemptions 3.5th Schedule Exemptions & Concessions 4.General Concessions: Automobile sector, E&P Companies, CPEC, etc 5. Export Related Exemptions Total Source: Federal Board of Revenue (Rs million) 12,635 34,210 137,418 55,877 47,631 287,771 Following is the consolidated summary of tax expenditure for the FY 2021 in Table 4. Table 4: Tax Expenditure of Federal Taxes for FY2020 S.# Types of Tax 1. Income Tax 2. Sales Tax 3. Customs Duty Total Tax expenditure Estimates Source: Federal Board of Revenue 340 (Rs billion) FY202, 448.046 578.456 287.771 1,314.273
377. Annex-III Special Economic Zones Special Economic Zones (SEZs) were established in many countries as testing grounds for implementation of liberal market economy principles. While viewed as economic policy tools for enhancing the acceptability and credibility of industrial transformation policies, attracting domestic and foreign investment and also for the opening up of the economy, SEZs also seek to promote the value addition component in exports, generate employment, encourage import substitution as well as mobilize foreign exchange in countries for Balance of Payment Support. Many developing and developed economies have established economic zones for the regional development and prosperity, aiming at creating spillovers for the economy outside the zones, successfully. SEZs, an industrial policy tool that depends on the attraction of local and foreign direct investment (FDI), data indicates continue to multiply and diversify all over the world. The UNCTAD’s World Investment Report published in 2019, elucidates that more than 5,400 SEZs exist in nearly 150 countries, increased from 4,000 SEZs in 2015, showing growth of 35%. SEZs not only serve as a policy tool for FDI attraction but also FDI competition across the world, with many diverse incentive packages being offered to entice direct investment. SEZ policy objectives and type differ substantially among the economies at different stages of, what UNCTAD1 refers to as the development ladder. In developed economies, most SEZs are custom-free zones that provide relief from tariffs, and the administrative burden of customs procedures, thereby providing support to sophisticated cross-border value chains. Developing economies often establish SEZs to attract FDI, in order to build, diversify and upgrade industries. The economies that have historically struggled to attract FDI show a higher tendency to implement this concept. Whereas, new adopters, such as some African countries, are using SEZs to kickoff manufacturing, industrialization and export generation to compete with other regional countries. In transition economies, technology-centered zones are spurring. Several advanced 1 World Investment Report 2019
378. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 economies are utilizing SEZ to promote industrial upgrading , China’s Shenzhen SEZ, being the classic example. SEZ Act 2012 – the inception till first amendment The Government of Pakistan also adopted the concept of SEZ with the commencement of the Special Economic Zones Act 2012 (herein referred to as the Act), to meet the challenges of global competitiveness and to create industrial clusters in the economy. The Act envisages SEZs to encourage domestic and international investors for promotion and establishment of industrial infrastructures focusing on export promotion, import substitution, transfer of technology, and employment generation. Section 4 of the Act allows the Federal Government and Provincial Governments to establish SEZs on their own or in collaboration with private parties under various modes of collaboration including Public-Private Partnership or exclusively through private parties. Whereas to incentivize such investment in the SEZs, the said Act provides certain fiscal and allied benefits to the SEZ investors, i.e., developers and zone enterprises. The significance of SEZs as a policy tool for economic growth through industrialization can be gauged from the composition of its approving forums. The apex approving body is the Board of Approvals (BOA) that is headed by the Prime Minister, with the Chief Ministers, Federal Ministers from relevant economic ministries and representatives from the public and private sector. This high-powered policy making forum is effectively responsible for successful establishment of SEZs across Pakistan. At the lowest tier of the approval structure, are the SEZ Committees that are chartered by the BOA, under Section 23 of the Act, for each notified zone. These committees comprise of the representatives from the investment promotion departments at federal and provincial levels, the district government, the provincial SEZ Authorities and the developer of the respective zone. They are responsible for granting approval to the eligible zone enterprises on the basis of their business proposals to set up in the particular SEZ. In Pakistan, the policy objectives and the type of SEZ framework provided through the SEZ Act 2012 was originally not aligned with the economic realities as the SEZs from 2012-2015 were placed outside the customs territory of Pakistan limiting their appeal for the investors that wanted to capitalize on the budding domestic consumer market. Resultantly, in order to expand the scope of SEZs and to accelerate industrialization, Board of Investment, being the custodian of SEZs in Pakistan proposed certain amendments in the Act in 2015 to bring the SEZs within the customs territory of Pakistan. With the incorporation of the proposed amendments in the Act, the SEZs were made more investor friendly. By the end of 2016, seven SEZs got notified across Pakistan. 342
379. Special Economic Zones Box-I : The SEZ Journey of Pakistan SEZ Act 2012 passed 2012 Amendments in the SEZ Act made to bring SEZs in the customs territory of Pakistan 4 SEZs established 9 CPEC SEZs agreed under Phase II of CPEC 2015 SEZ Ordinance 2015 3 SEZs established 2016 Provision of utilities by Federal Government 6 new SEZs approved including Rashakai SEZ the first CPEC SEZ Reconstitution of SEZ Committees to accelerate colonization 2018 2019 Service sector included in the scope of SEZ Act 2012 SEZ Zone Enterprise Admission and Sale, lease and sub-lease of Plot Regulations 2021 SEZ MIS Module launched 2020 2021 8 new SEZs approved Revision of SEZ Incentive Package Development Agreement of Rashakai SEZ signed Sole Enterprise SEZ Regulations 2020 2 Sole Enterprise SEZs established SEZs – A New Direction (2018-2020) Till FY2018, only 7 SEZs existed, while 6 of them had converted from their earlier status as Industrial estates (IEs) or Industrial Parks (IPs). However, with the advent of CPEC SEZs, the establishment of SEZs across the country took up pace, showing investor confidence in the industrial regime. As of now, 22 SEZs have been approved, while 21 of them have been notified by the BOI (Box-IV). These include, 4CPEC SEZs, 3 Private SEZs (including two Sole Enterprise SEZs), and a Science and Technology Park that is being established by NUST in Islamabad. Box-II: Case of CPEC SEZs During the 6th meeting of Pak-China Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) on CPEC held in Beijing, China; establishment of nine SEZs in Pakistan, seven Provincial and two Federal, were agreed under the framework of CPEC Industrial Cooperation (IC). All four provincial SEZs, namely, Rashakai SEZ in KP, Allama Iqbal Industrial City in Punjab, Bostan SEZ in Balochistan and Dhabeji SEZ in Sindh have been accorded approval by the Board of Approvals and are at various stages of development. In order to fast-track development of these SEZs, the federal government has ensured provision of utilities to the designated zeropoint of these SEZs and as such allocated Rs4 billion in the Federal PSDP FY2021. Table 1: Special Economic Zones established across Pakistan Year FY2014 FY2016 Name of SEZ Bin Qasim Industrial Park (BQIP), Karachi, Sindh Khairpur Special Economic Zone (KSEZ), Khairpur, Sindh Korangi Creek Industrial Park (KCIP), Karachi, Sindh Hattar Special Economic Zone (HSEZ), Haripur, KP M3 Industrial City (M3IC), Faisalabad, Punjab Developer NIP SEZMC NIP KPEZDMC FIEDMC Area (Acres) 930 140 220 440 4,356 343
380. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Table 1 : Special Economic Zones established across Pakistan Year Name of SEZ Developer FIEDMC FOC-1 NIP PIEDMC KPEZDMC PIEDMC PIEDMC Industries Depart. Bal. Hub Special Economic Zone (HUBSEZ), Lasbela, Balochistan LIEDA Naushero Feroz Industrial Park (NFIP), Naushahro Feroze, Sindh NIP FY2021 Allama Iqbal Industrial City (AIIC), Faisalabad, Punjab FIEDMC National Science and Technology Park (NSTP), Islamabad, ICT NUST JW-SEZ China-Pakistan SEZ (JWSEZ), Lahore, Punjab JWSEZ Group Quaid-e-Azam Business Park (QABP), Sheikhupura, Punjab PIEDMC Service Long March Tyres SESEZ, Jamshoro, Sindh SLM Siddiqsons Tinplate SESEZ, Lasbela, Balochistan STPL Total 21 Source: Board of Investment FY2019 Value Addition City (VAC), Faisalabad, Punjab Oil Village SEZ (OVSEZ), Rawalpindi, Punjab Rachna Industrial Park (RIP), Sheikhupura, Punjab Rahimyar Khan Industrial Estate (RIE), Rahim Yar Khan, Punjab Rashakai Special Economic Zone (RSEZ), Nowshera, KP Vehari Industrial Estate (VIE), Vehari, Punjab Bhalwal Industrial Estate (BIE), Sargodha, Punjab Bostan Special Economic Zone (BSEZ), Pishin, Balochistan Area (Acres) 214 105 215 456 1,000 277 427 200 406 80 2,800 58 231 1,536 50 71 14,212 SEZ Colonization The colonization of SEZs can be divided into two eras, pre- and post-SEZ MIS Module (Box-III). Before the notification of the SEZs, Zone Enterprise Admission and Sale, Lease and Sub-lease of Plots Regulations 2021, the SEZs were marred with real estate activities. However, in order to eradicate these practices and give way to only serious investors, all zone and zone enterprise applications are being processed through the SEZ MIS Module with effect from 1st January 2021. This Module is integrated with the SECP and only accepts applications from SECP registered concerns. Efforts are also underway to digitize and streamline the legacy data and approvals. Box-III: SEZ MIS Module th In the 7 meeting of the Board of Approvals, held on 14th December 2020, the Prime Minister launched the SEZ MIS Module. Since 1st January 2021, all zone and zone enterprise entry applications that are received through the Module are to be entertained and put before the competent forum for consideration. Zone Enterprises Active Planned Investment (Rs billion) FDI (Rs billion) FDI (USD million) Pre-SEZ MIS (2012-2020)* 200 334.22 173.08 1,081.74 Post-SEZ MIS (1st Jan 2021 – 4th May 2021) 55 299.68 103.45 646.59 The number of zone enterprises pre-SEZ MIS launch, although significant, includes certain enterprises that could not realize their planned investments and are being tracked and phased out. The pre-launch period that spans over 8 years across 19 SEZs, due to non-availability of required infrastructure and lack of regulatory monitoring and ease could only solicit foreign investment interest of Rs173.08billion. Whereas post-launch, in a matter of just 5 months, more than half of this progress has been registered and given approval for setting up of industries. 344
381. Special Economic Zones Out of earlier notified seven SEZs by 2016 , except the Quaid-e-Azam Apparel Park (which was re-notified on 8th December 2020 as Quaid-e-Azam Business Park), all 6 earlier notified SEZs are at advanced stage of colonization. These SEZs together house 285 enterprise (excluding the Industrial Estate units in M3IC and VAC). Over 84% of industrial area allotted, 46% of investment has been realized with 50% as FDI. The Federal Government has exempted Rs 49.39 billion of custom duties and taxes on the import of plant and machinery for setting up of units in these zones. Table 2: Exemption of Custom Duties and Taxes on the Import of Plant and Machinery SEZs (Notified FY2012-18) BQIP KSEZ KCIP HSEZ M3IC VAC Total % Indus. Area Sold Total Units 34% 81% 96% 87% 95% 99% 84% 17 34 123 43 63 5 285 Expected Invest. (Rs Bn) % Share of FDI % Invest. So far CD Exempt (Rs bn) 47.95 6.35 31.18 10.07 212.10 1.02 308.67 64% 55% 0% 24% 57% 0% 51% 85% 2% 31% 24% 42% 71% 46% 1.10 0.17 0.07 0.37 47.33 0.35 49.39 Local units Foreign Units 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Source: Biannual reports submitted by provincial SEZ Authorities As of May 2021, the 21 notified SEZs together account for approx. 10,029.64 acres of industrial land out of which 5,220.62 acres (52%) have been allotted to investors for setting up of industry with planned investments of Rs 633.9 billion, 43.6% of this comprises of FDI component (USD 1.73 billion). It is also significant to mention that under the SEZ Act 2012, a zone enterprise is obligated to start construction within six months and to get into commercial production/operations within 24 months of its approval, whereas title to land is to be transferred only after it has performed regular operations for six months. Unless otherwise extended, upon expiry of the 24 months or the period so extended, if a zone enterprise remains unable to fulfill its obligation the status is to be withdrawn. Industrial Area Sold (In Acres) Industrial Area Remaining (In Acres) 100% 75% 48% 50% 52% 25% 0% 345
382. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Incentives Considering incentives to be the driving force for any type of SEZ , to lure the investors, over the past two years, certain revisions in the fiscal incentive package have been made to make it further profitable as well as regionally competitive (Box-IV). Box-IV: Revised SEZ Fiscal Incentive Package The SEZ Act, 2012 incentivizes investment in the SEZs through provision of certain fiscal and allied benefits. The fiscal benefits provided under section 36 & 37 of the SEZ Act 2012, to zone developers and enterprises have been expanded over the past two years through various policy tools. The scope of SEZs has been expanded by inclusion of service sector and accordingly amendments have been enacted in the Customs Act 1969, vide Finance Act 2020, through incorporation of certain key service sectors for provision of incentives. These sectors include IT, storage, communication, and infrastructure development of SEZs by zone developers. The exemption from custom duty that was earlier available on import of plant and machinery, has been expanded in scope of applicability through amendment in PCT code 9917(2) vide Finance Act 2020. It is now available on the import of a wide variety of capital goods that are used in manufacturing and service sectors as defined under the Fifth Schedule to the Customs Act 1969. To encourage and facilitate PPP in SEZ development, concession and exemptions available to the developers of SEZs have also been extended to the co-developers of the SEZs. Similarly, the income tax holiday for the zone developers has been extended from 5 to 10 years, whereas the cut-off date applicable on zone enterprises under section 37 of the SEZ Act 2012 has been removed vide section 126E of the Income Tax Ordinance 2001, providing income tax holiday of 10-years to the zone enterprises as well. Efforts are also underway to make the ‘exemption from all taxes on income’ available under the SEZ Act 2012, a reality. Among other SEZ incentives, one of the major attractions is provision of utilities to the zero point of each SEZ. Lack of resource allocation constrained the earlier notified 7 SEZs from achieving their development milestones while making it difficult to solicit interest for CPEC SEZs. As a result of the joint efforts, funds amounting to Rs 19.9 billion were allocated from the PSDP for provision of power and gas for all the SEZs, to be released over the period of next 5 years, in a phased and prioritized manner. Out of these funds, amounting to Rs 5.6 billion were allocated in FY2019, whereas Rs 4 billion have been allocated for FY2021, out of which, Rs 3.4 billion have been earmarked for CPEC SEZs. Provision of utilities and infrastructure are the basic components for any industrial undertaking to be successful. SEZs could not get any financial support for the provision of utilities in the past but now funds are being allocated for the purpose. The notion that provision of utilities and infrastructure must be completed in all respects to allow plug and play facilities to the enterprise before admission required re-evaluation. To this end, a mechanism for provision of utilities and infrastructure in a phased manner, aligned with the development timelines and requirements of the zone enterprises allowing the developers to admit more enterprises and rationalize the demand and supply of these facilities was implemented through the SEZ Zone Enterprise Sale, Lease and Sub-Lease of Plots Regulations 2021. The regulations allow the developer to only open those plots for allotment that have necessary infrastructure available, while committing to meet the development timelines 346
383. Special Economic Zones of the potential zone enterprise at the time of approval . This will help the developers in meeting the costs of development with the proceeds from the operations, and slowly but surely develop the whole SEZ and populate it with quality investments. The role of SEZ committees in monitoring the provision of utilities and infrastructure to the zone enterprises as per their phased requirement will be crucial. Box-V: Major Initiatives Taken by BOI in FY2021 A. Industrial Cooperation through SEZs under CPEC – Rashakai Development Agreement  To transform the trade corridor into a true economic corridor, BOI being the secretariat for SEZs and Industrial Cooperation under CPEC, and a party to all the SEZ development agreements on the behalf of the Federal Government, after 9 months of negotiations, on 14th September 2020, facilitated signing of the quad-partite development agreement for the development of the first CPEC SEZ, i.e. Rashakai SEZ, in KP. Rashakai SEZ is to be developed in collaboration with a stateowned Chinese enterprise, that makes this development agreement first of its kind with Chinese counterpart being one of the parties to the development agreement. B. Provision of Utilities from Federal PSDP  With BOI’s efforts and support of line ministries Rs19.9 billion have been earmarked in the PSDP for provision of utilities for all the SEZs over the period of 5 years. Efforts are underway for more funding and use of other innovative models, such as captive power to cut the costs and release the burden of such allocation. C. Encouraging Establishment of Hi-tech and IT zones  BOI being the SEZ Authority for ICT, promoted the case for award of SEZ status to National Science & Technology Park, that is being developed by NUST for promotion of hi-tech industry and research and development. The park was approved by the BOA in its 6 th meeting held on 7thOctober 2020, and notified on 2ndDecember 2020, as an SEZ under the purview of the SEZ Act 2012 and was allowed certain exemptions by the BOA for its unique business model. Considering the special needs of the hi-tech and IT sector on BOI’s proposal, amendments were made in the Customs Act 1969 to expand the custom duty exemptions to includes IT sector. D. Sole Enterprise SEZ Regulations 2020  Sole Enterprise Special Economic Zone Regulations 2020 for the establishment of single unit SEZs in Pakistan under the provisions of the SEZ Act 2012 have been notified on 11th December 2020.These regulations provide clarity on procedural guidelines and also propose certain parameters, to safeguard the socio-economic interests of the country and provide passage to only serious investors for establishment of such single unit SEZ, while relaxes these parameters to induce industrialization in 67 underdeveloped areas across Pakistan and to support import substitution of top 5 importing sectors. Two SEZs have since been notified under these regulations and both these SEZs are located in backward areas. E. SEZ Zone Enterprise Sale, Lease and Sub-Lease of Plots Regulations 2021  In order to discourage real estate activities and simplifying the processes for dealing with and disposing off the SEZ enterprises entry applications and to ensure transparent sale, lease and sub-lease of plots in the SEZs in an efficient manner, SEZ Zone Enterprise Admission and Sale/ lease/ sub-lease of Plot Regulations 2020 were notified on 15th January 2021. These regulations aim at streamlining the sale/lease of the industrial plots in the SEZs to the prospective zone enterprises to ensure transparency and a level playing field, through use of an IT-enabled solution – the SEZ MIS Module. F. SEZ MIS Module  BOI has launched the “SEZ MIS Module” that is aimed to act as a one-window for SEZs. This module assists the real investors, including foreign investors, in getting admitted into the SEZs 347
384. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 without worrying about any middleman role to arrange the transaction or of any exploitation . SEZ MIS Module features: • • • • • • • • • • • 348 Zone Application processing. Zone Entry Application processing. Streamlined and timebound processes. Speedy processing, application tracking& surety of case disposal. Transparency. Grievance redressal. Investment databases. SEZ Planning. Elimination of real estate activities. Removal of Red tape. Auditable data and access to information.
385. Annex IV Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan Introduction In the first quarter of 2020 , the world was faced with COVID-19 pandemic which was truly a ‘black swan’ event – an event whose probabilistic occurrence is rare, but should it occur, the event can have devastating consequences. Globally, stock markets nosedived, factories were shut down, global trade and supply chains were severely disrupted, airports were deserted, offices had stopped their operations and shops remained closed to contain the pandemic outbreak. On the December 31, 2019, first official case was reported in Wuhan China. Initially it was confined to China until first official case was recorded in Thailand on January 13, 2021. The first case of COVID-19 in Pakistan was reported on 26th February 2020. By 1st June 2020, 76,398 cases were reported with 1,621 deaths, i.e., CFR1 2.12%. Daily maximum cases in Pakistan were reported on June 14, 2020, i.e., 6,825 cases. 213 cases were the lowest official number that were reported on August 30, 2020. Second wave was started in the second week of October, reached 3,795 official case on December 6; maximum in the second wave. Although the cases started increasing the maximum number remained close to 1,000 cases till February 2021. The ongoing third wave in Pakistan was officially recognized to have started in the second week of March 2021. The number of cases (on March 18, 2021) are increasing at 8 percent infection rate and CFR is 1.2 percent. Total cases are more than 600 thousand and are expected to increase due to increase in infection rate as well as outbreak of new variant of virus. Impact on Economy – Initial Impact and Assessment Prevention lies in following COVID-19 SOPs; wear masks, hand washing and maintaining social distance. Third being the most significant SOP that leads to decline in daily business especially in the informal retail and wholesale markets thus leading to numerous business closures and un-precedented job losses. Developed countries like 1 Case Fatality Rate
386. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 USA have registered 35 million jobs loss in the first two months . It was also expected that half a billion people might slip below poverty line in developing countries due to job loss. With the gradual increase in cases and closure of business, both employers and employees have started worrying about their business and jobs. Investors have started becoming concerned about their money invested in companies. Economies around the world have been experiencing the an economic decline similar to the great depression of 1930s. China’s GDP shrunk by 10-20% in January and February compared with a year earlier. A similar drop was expected in other countries as well, especially European countries and Iran. Massive government interventions are required to lessen the shock to economy. The outbreak in China forced factories to stop production, which reduced the demand for oil, raw material, intermediate goods as well as the supply of intermediate and final goods to the world from China. European countries faced a similar situation. Hence, an overall downturn in the global economy was observed. Developing countries, especially outward-oriented countries were affected the most due to disruptions in the overall global value chain. In the initial days of lockdown in March 2020, the Pakistan stock market lost on average 1500 points daily. The losses in the stock market were mainly attributed to the increase in interest rate first, reduction in oil price second and the onset of coronavirus. Billions of rupees invested in different shares were reduced by one third and in some case half of the value. Graph shows the movements of the Karachi stock markets (KSE-100 Index) which was above 42,000 in January 2020 and was expected to go up, however, outbreak of COVID-19 created panic and it hit harder when the lockdown was announced in the mid-March 2020. Although it started recovering by the End of March, nonetheless, it took almost a year to reach at the same level. Manufacturing sector, especially the exporters faced difficulties due to the decline in the demand for imports from Pakistan and other developing countries. Numerous consignments of the textile sector were stranded on the sea and then returned because, in wake of the pandemic, no state wanted to bring them inside the country unless everything was back to normal. Exporters also faced with problems in working capital management. Moreover, small businesses, especially freelance entrepreneurs, have 350
387. Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan struggled as supply chains dried up , leaving them without products or essential materials. Globally, 2007-08 financial crisis was considered to be the biggest financial crisis of the world before the current crisis. The current crisis hit services sector the most which has the biggest share in the economy. Due to social distancing, many of the services sector businesses were shut down such as hotels, restaurants, wedding halls and marquees. Similarly, due to border closures and overall business slow down the most effected services sector was wholesale and retail trade that has the maximum share in services sectors in addition to the transport sector. Overall economic growth in Pakistan contracted to (-) 0.47% in 2019-20 when it already had weak economic growth of just 1.9 percent in the prior year. The COVID-19 further compounded long-standing challenges, especially in the industrial and services sector. However, due to the timely intervention of the government (economic stimulus package), the economy turned back to revival path. Poverty and Unemployment In 2015-16, 24.3 percent of the population was living below the poverty line, while 19.87 percent are vulnerable who can slip below poverty line due to any shock. Keeping the spread of the pandemic in perspective, almost 44% of the population is potentially vulnerable (including 24.3% already living below the poverty line) and may require immediate bail out2. The estimates of multidimensional vulnerability index based on PSLM 2014-15 shows that 56.6 per cent of the population have become socioeconomically vulnerable after the outbreak. This implies that various segments of the society may get affected by the pandemic, especially women and children as well as home-based and piece rate workers and marginalized groups including transgenders, persons with disabilities, refugees etc. The 2017-18 Labor Force Survey estimates show 61.7 million employed labor force. Among these, 23.8 million are agriculture workers and 37.9 million are non-agriculture workers. Out of non-agriculture workers, 27.3 million (72 per cent) work in the informal sector3. Majority of the informal workers fall in the categories of “paid employees” (13 million workers, or 48%) and “own account” or “self-employed” workers (11.2 million, or 41%). ILO and PIDE estimated expected job loss considering two scenarios, i.e., (1) moderate slow-down of economic activity and (2) severe restrictions on economic 2 https://www.sdgpakistan.pk/uploads/pub/National_Poverty_Report_2015_16.pdf Wholesale and retail trade sector and manufacturing sector employs most (15.1 million) of the informal workers followed by construction sector (4.43 million), community/social & personal services sectors (4.37 million) and transport/ storage & communication sector (3.14 million). 3 351
388. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 activities . International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates 12.6 million to 19.1 million vulnerable workers may lose their jobs while PIDE estimates 15.54 million to 18.65 million job loss4. It is expected that wholesale and retail trade will lose maximum workers followed by manufacturing, construction and transport. However, expected job loss in non-agriculture sector is between 4.8 million to 5.8 million. SMEDA5 estimates shows that 3.25 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) constitute nearly 90% of all the enterprises in Pakistan and their share in the annual GDP is 40%, approximately. 97% of these enterprises are under individual ownership and hence mainly working in the informal sector. Since most of MSMEs are not documented (other than those workers registered under EOBI or a social security program), they are not protected against loss of employment. In addition, the gig or platform economy workers6, especially those providing geographically tethered services like transportation (Uber and Careem), delivery of items (Bykea)7 and domestic work services (Mauqa, Ghar Par) are significantly affected amid lockdown. Such digital platforms treat these workers as independent contractors, hence relieving themselves of any employment responsibilities towards these workers8. These white collars workers cannot be part of any Ehsaas program or other social protection program. Socioeconomic Situation Border closures and lockdown disrupted agriculture value chain. For the local consumer, this translates to potentially reduced availability of farm produce and related products in the market. On the other hand, it may restrict people’s access to sufficient/diverse and nutritious sources of food, especially in those areas most impacted by the virus and/or with a pre-existing problem of food security. Lower socioeconomic groups are most susceptible to this, particularly women-led households and children (since reduced household incomes and purchasing power will lead to restricted nutritional diversity and rationing of food intake). However, survey data is lacking to 4 Table 3 in https://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PIDE-COVID-19-Bulletin-4.pdf State of SMEs in Pakistan, SMEDA 6 The platform economy distinguishes between two major forms of work: crowd work and work on demand via apps. Crowd work is performed online and is location-independent. It includes software development, data entry, translation services, etc. Examples are Up Work, Fiverr and Freelancer. ‘Work on demand via apps’, on the other hand, matches the worker and the client digitally and the work is performed locally. Activities include transportation, food delivery and home services. Major platforms in Pakistan include Uber, Careem (transportation) and Food panda (food delivery). 7 Bykea has over 30,000 daily wage earners working with it. It has launched a Rs 7 million relief fund for its driver partners affected by the lockdown and suspension of services amid the coronavirus pandemic. 8 The Online Labour Index (OLI) is the first economic indicator providing online gig economy equivalent to conventional labour market statistics. It measures the supply and demand of online freelance labour across countries and occupations by tracking the number of projects and tasks across platforms in real time. 5 352
389. Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan validate the expected adverse impact of the COVID-19 . Tackling Health Issues Unlike developed countries, Pakistan has fragile healthcare system. Facilities are insufficient to meet the population needs. There is on average one hospital bed available for over 1,680 people9. The daily testing was initially very low which was improved as the infection rate increased. Provision of healthcare for non-COVID related illnesses was one of the major concerns during the first as well as second wave of pandemic which included primary healthcare services such as routine immunization and mother and child healthcare. The lockdown and travel restrictions across countries disrupted supply chains, stock shortages of essential vaccines and resultant disruption of immunization services that might have affected immunization of children. The COVID-19 pandemic had significant impact on reproductive healthcare and newborn at multiple levels: i) potential shortages of required medications (such as antiretrovirals and antibiotics) due to disrupted supply; ii) health care providers diverted to help address COVID-19 patients; iii) financial resources diverted to COVID-19 response. Outbreak of the disease put an additional burden of domestic work and disease prevention on women. The responsibility of women in prevention and care of disease extends outside the household as well. Moreover, majority of healthcare professionals (nurses, doctors, etc.) are women. In such cases, these healthcare professionals shoulder the responsibilities of both domestic work and homecare. Tackling Education Issues Education is among the few sectors which was closed after the COVID-19 to contain the spread by keeping social and physical distancing. The COVID-19 pandemic has directly impacted 42 million school going children from pre-primary and primary to higher secondary and degree college levels. Low-cost private schools are unable to pay salaries to the teachers and face risk of school closures. This situation stands to potentially exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities to an already weak education system, as well as steepen learning capabilities. Mobility constraints, non-availability of internet, non-access to tele-schooling facilities has disproportionate adverse impact on the most vulnerable groups, particularly females10 and other marginalized groups and those in rural areas and urban slums. 9 PIDE COVID 19 E-Book World Bank, Managing the impact of COVID-19 on education systems around the world: How are countries preparing, 10 353
390. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 Geographically , rural areas and urban slums are potentially at highest risk with more than 70 per cent of current enrolment and large pockets of already out of school children. Hence, the COVID-19 crisis may widen the already existing socioeconomic gap in the educational system and impact the overall literacy rate of the country. Tackling Gender Issues Women and other vulnerable groups are the worst hit by pandemic. Women dominate professions such as domestic workers, teachers and instructors in schools and colleges. Due to lockdown conditions, closure of schools and colleges, stalling of transportation and general inability to pay salaries, women are among the most vulnerable to lose employment. Furthermore, currently 12 million Home Based Workers are working who earn around Rs 3,000 to 4,000 per month. Given that they belong to informal sector, they too face multidimensional issues such as income insecurity and absence of social protection. In the current situation, this segment of labor force is mostly at risk of losing livelihoods due to its inability to supply the required labor hours. Role of Philanthropy Pakistanis are very philanthropic nation. Overall, nation is always responsive in the crisis situation. Therefore, the importance of philanthropy cannot be ignored. It has played a vital role in providing critical support to various organizations leading relief and recovery efforts. Various organisation as well as individuals have participated in philanthropic activities. The philanthropic activities are mostly related to (i) support for hospitals where facilities are inadequate e.g., testing of patients with COVID-19, ventilators, personal protective equipment and other consumables, (ii) Ration packages (iii) public health messaging campaigns. An Integrated Response for Salvaging the Economy; Saving Lives and Livelihoods Administrative Response and Establishment of the NCOC The National Command and Operation Center (NCOC) was setup at the early stages of pandemic and is mandated for reviewing situation continuously and taking day to day important decisions. NCOC is nerve center to synergize and articulate unified national effort against COVID-19 and to implement the decisions of national coordination committee on COVID-19. The center is one window operation to collate, analyze and process information based on digital input and human intelligence across Pakistan coping and planning for recovery? Accessed 1 April, 2020, https://blogs.worldbank.org/education/managing-impactCOVID-19-education-systems-around-world-how-countries-are-preparing 354
391. Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan through all provinces , AJ&K, GB&ICT dedicated representatives and centers. NCOC issued several guidelines for COVID-19 prevention that includes (i) cleaning and disinfection of all areas/sites, objects and potential surfaces where a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 has visited, lived, used and/or touched (ii) mandatory wearing of masks and testing of COVID-19, (iii) establishing quarantine facility, (iv) home isolation, (v) social distancing (vi) zoning of hospital for better access and treatment of COVID-19 patients (vii) Cleaning & Disinfection of Environmental Surfaces, (viii) court premises and inside the court rooms, (ix) management of stores for owners and public, (x) industries and workers, (xi) management of the Neonate of suspected or confirmed COVID-19 mother, (xii) air transport, Burial and Safe Management of COVID-19 Dead Body (xiii) Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and outpatient guidelines for hospital staff (xiv) Health & Safety of Building & Construction Workers (xvii) public transport, domestic air transport and railway stations (xix) Eid-ul-Azha markets (xx) Government offices (xxi) reopening of all the businesses including tourism, restaurants, marriage halls, salons, parlours, cinemas and all mass gatherings and (xxii) reopening of schools. In addition to the aforementioned guidelines for COVID-19 prevention, COVID-19 1166 helpline was setup in case of an emergency. Some basic preventive measures were selected and communicated through pictorial depiction as well as played on electronic and social media. Evidence Based Decision Making and Policy Response COVID-19 Specific PBS Survey11 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics has conducted a special survey12 for evaluating impact of 11 12 Ealuating the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 Report is available at 355
392. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 COVID-19 on wellbeing of people13 to provide representative results at national /provincial level to inform government on the magnitude/level of effects of this crisis on Employment, Food security and general wellbeing of the population for informed decision making. Questionnaire & methodology was finalized with consultation of all relevant stake holders like FAO, World Bank, UNDP, WHO, independent renowned researches and M/o Planning Development & Special Initiatives (PD&SI). Main Sector Covered are; Employment, Income, Remittances, Food Insecurity, Access/use to Health Facilities, Housing Characteristics Water, Sanitation & Hygiene and Assistance obtained from Organizations. The findings show that 27.31 million working population was affected. While, 20.6 million people could not work during the first wave of pandemic. Whereas, 6.7 million people said that their income was declined. Not surprisingly, 74 percent informal workers were affected. Own account worker (nonagriculture) were the most effected worker (30 percent) followed by casual paid employee (29 percent), regular paid employees (19 percent) and piece rate employed (15 percent). Larger part of the affected belong to manufacturing sector (26 percent), while construction sector (20 percent) is at number 2, transport and communication sector (17 percent) at number 3 and wholesale and retail trade (15 percent) at number 4. As a coping mechanism, half of the households reduced their non-food expenditures, whereas almost half also reduced the non-food expenses. Moreover, significant number of households have sold their property or used their savings whereas one third households reported borrowing from their relatives and friends. Ehsaas has increased the scope of Kafaalat program, however the findings show that 33 percent of the households i.e. approximately 17.07 million households received assistance during the COVID-19 period. Out of which, 19 percent received assistance from government, while private sector assistance is reported as 18 percent. The share of NGOs is 2 percent. Nonetheless, out of 33 percent, 5.5 percent households had received assistance both from government and private sector. Stimulus Package and Salvaging Economy During the initial days of the COVID-19 pandemic, after analyzing the initial status and https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//other/COVID/Final_Report_for_COVID_Survey_0.pdf 13 The data is collected between 20 October 2020 to 5 November 2020. The reference period was April 2020 to July 2020 and post August 2020, i.e, recovery period. 356
393. Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan possible repercussions at the NCOC , Government came up with Rs 1.24 trillion stimulus package. Besides this stimulus package several other policy measures were taken to reduce the incidence and deaths due to COVID-19 and salvaging economy. State Bank of Pakistan has also come up with several initiatives. The objective behind the stimulus package is to support investors, exporters and other traders who were severely affected due to CVOID-19. These incentives include;  Payment of principle on loan obligations deferred for 1 year;  Margin call requirements against bank financing reduced from 30% to 20%;  Criteria for classification of trade bills relaxed by 6 months; Banks overall poll of loanable funds increased; Criteria for re-structuring/re-scheduling of loan relaxed;  Relaxing credit requirements for exporters &importers and relief for individual borrowers;  Two new refinancing facilities: first, the ‘Temporary Economic Refinancing Facility’ (TERF) worth Rs 100 billion in bank refinancing to stimulate investment in new manufacturing plants and machinery at 7 percent fixed for 10 years; second, the “Refinance Facility for Combating COVID–19” (RFCC) worth Rs 5 billion to support hospitals and medical centers the purchase of equipment to detect, contain and treat COVID-19;  Reduced capital conservation buffer by 100 basis points to 1.5 percent;  Increased regulatory limit on extension of credit to SMEs by 44 percent to Rs 180 million;  Relaxation of the debt burden ratio for consumer loans from 50 percent to 60 percent. BOX-1: PM’s Economic Support Package  Elimination of import duties on imports of emergency health equipment;  Relief to daily wage workers (Rs 200 billion);  Cash transfers to low-income families (Rs 150 billion);  Accelerated tax refunds to the export industry (Rs 100 billion);  Financial support to SMEs (Rs 100 billion);  Resources for an accelerated procurement of wheat (Rs 280 billion);  Financial support to utility stores (Rs 50 billion), relief in fuel prices (Rs 70 billion), support for health and food supplies (Rs 15 billion), electricity bill payments relief (Rs 110 billion), an emergency contingency fund (Rs 100 billion) and a transfer to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) for the purchase of necessary equipment to deal with the pandemic (Rs 25 billion). Following the announced interventions/incentives by the SBP, discount rate was reduced from 13.25 percent to 7 percent in June 2020 and maintained till now. In 357
394. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 addition , the reduction in maximum end user rate from 7% to 5% on July 08, 2020 under Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) resulted in bringing significant increase in number. Despite lower economic growth, the requested amount in the last one year has increased from Rs 36.1 billion by end April 2020 to Rs 690 billion at maturity14 while over the same period approved financing has reached to Rs 435.7 billion from Rs 0.5 billion. All the segments of customers including corporate / commercial and retail borrowers show positive response to the debt relief scheme. Out of 1.883 million applications received 1.825 million applications (96.92 %) were approved15. These loans include 1.717 million approved applications from the customers of microfinance banks involving an amount of Rs 121 billion. Out of total 910 billion deferred and restructured loans, Rs 717 billion was taken by corporate and commercial borrowers. Health sector obtained approvals of Rs 10.5 billion out of Rs 16.67 billion (they asked) under the RFCC16.This is the first time that SBP has initiated a refinance scheme for Health sector due to extreme scenario amid pandemic. The main objective was to enhance hospitals’ capacities in building COVID-19 specific isolation wards and increasing number vital machinery such as ventilators and oxygen providing equipment. The Rozgar scheme aims to prevent layoff by financing wages and salaries of employees for six months, i.e., April 2020 – September 2020. Under the risk sharing scheme 2603 SMEs and Small corporates with sales turnover up to Rs 2 billion have applied for financing of Rs 69.4 billion against which Rs 56.2 billion have been approved. The scheme has prevented layoff of 1.849 million employees of 3,331 businesses till end September 2020. Ministry of Planning, Development Special initiatives has allocated Rs 70 billion especially for COVID-19 related expenditures that mostly includes upgradation of health facilities and WASH related measures. Numerous hospitals had submitted their proposal from all over the Pakistan that were approved at the Planning Commission that mostly includes increase in the health provision facilities. These projects ensure the long-term better provision of better public sector health facilities in Pakistan. Economic Recovery Smart lockdown in March 2020 to May 2020 and in the next few months for numerous businesses led to decline in economic activity in the last quarter of 2019-20. The dropin activities were so severe that normal expected GDP growth has decline from 3.3 14 As of 31st March 2021, the TERF scheme has matured, consequently no further change is expected. up to April 02, 2021 16 The scheme has matured except for new hospitals that will continue till June 30, 2021 15 358
395. Impact of COVID-19 on Socioeconomic Situation of Pakistan percent to negative 0 .47 percent, which was partly cushioned by the introduction of the construction sector package in June 2020. Economy of Pakistan rebounded strongly in FY2021 and posted growth of 3.94 percent which is not only substantially higher than the previous two years (-0.47 and 2.08 percent in FY2020 and FY2019 respectively) but also surpassed the target (2.1 percent for FY2021). Despite strict fiscal constraints, timely and appropriate policy measures taken by the government resulted in a V-Shaped economic recovery. The government will continue to take the necessary measures for achieving a higher, sustainable and inclusive growth rate. Thus, increased size of PSDP, better containment of pandemic along with roll-out of vaccination and continuation of Ehsaas Programme will keep momentum of the economic growth. 359
396.                              
398.                              
399. CONTENTS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS ................................................................................... 1-8 1 GROWTH AND INVESTMENT 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Gross National Product At Constant Basic Prices of 2005-06 ................................................ 11 Sectoral Shares in GDP ........................................................................................................... 12 Growth Rates (%) .................................................................................................................... 13 Expenditure on Gross National Product At Constant Prices of 2005-06 ................................. 14 Gross National Product at Current Basic Prices ...................................................................... 15 Expenditure on Gross National Product At Current Prices .................................................... 16 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Private, Public and General Government Sectors by Economic Activity At Current Market Prices ..................... 17 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Private, Public and General Government Sectors by Economic Activity At Constant Market Price of 2005-06 ..................................... 20 1.8 2 AGRICULTURE 2.1 A 2.1 B 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 Index of Agricultural Production ............................................................................................. 25 Basic Data on Agriculture ....................................................................................................... 26 Land Utilization ....................................................................................................................... 27 Area under Important Crops .................................................................................................... 28 Production of Important Crops ................................................................................................ 29 Yield Per Hectare of Major Agricultural Crops....................................................................... 30 Production and Export of Fruits .............................................................................................. 31 Crop-wise Composition of Output of Major Agricultural Crops (At Constant Basic Prices 2005-06) ........................................................................................ 32 Credit Disbursed by Agencies. ................................................................................................ 33 Fertilizer Off-Take and Imports of Pesticides ......................................................................... 34 Average Retail Sale Price of Fertilizers................................................................................... 35 Area Irrigated by Different Sources ........................................................................................ 36 Procurement/Support Prices of Agricultural Commodities ..................................................... 37 Procurement, Releases and Stocks of Wheat .......................................................................... 38 Livestock Population ............................................................................................................... 39 Livestock Products .................................................................................................................. 40 3 MANUFACTURING AND MINING 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Reserves and Extraction of Principal Minerals........................................................................ 43 Production Index of Mining and Manufacturing ..................................................................... 45 Cotton Textiles Statistics ......................................................................................................... 46 Production of Fertilizers, Vegetable Ghee, Sugar and Cement ............................................... 47 Production of Selected Industrial Items ................................................................................... 48 Percent Growth of Selected Industrial Items ........................................................................... 51 4 FISCAL DEVELOPMENT 4.1 4.2 4.3 Federal Government Overall Budgetary Position .................................................................... 55 Summary of Public Finance (Consolidated Federal and Provincial Governments)................. 56 Consolidated Federal and Provincial Government Revenues .................................................. 57 (i)
400. 4 .4 4.5 Consolidated Federal and Provincial Government Expenditures ............................................ 58 Debt Servicing ........................................................................................................................ 59 5 MONEY AND CREDIT 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 Components of Broad Money (M2) ........................................................................................ 63 Causative Factors Associated with Broad Money (M2) .......................................................... 64 Scheduled Banks Consolidated Position Based on Last Weekend Position of Liabilities and Assets ............................................................................................ 65 Income Velocity of Money ...................................................................................................... 66 List of Domestic, Foreign Banks and DFIs ............................................................................ 67 Security and Nature Wise Weighted Average Lending Rates (All Scheduled Banks) ............ 68 Sale of Market Treasury Bills Through Auction ..................................................................... 71 Sale of Pakistan Investment Bonds Through Auction ............................................................. 72 6 CAPITAL MARKETS & CORPORATE SECTOR 6.1 6.2 National Saving Schemes (Net Investment) ............................................................................ 77 Mark-up Rate/Profit Rate on Federal Government’s Debt Instruments .................................. 78 7 INFLATION 7.1 A 7.1 B 7.1 C 7.2 7.3 A 7.3 B 7.4 7.5 Price Indices ........................................................................................................................... 81 Head line & Core inflation ...................................................................................................... 82 Price Indices ............................................................................................................................ 83 Monthly Percent Changes in CPI,WPI and SPI....................................................................... 84 Price Indices by Consumer Income Groups ............................................................................ 85 Annual Changes in Price Indices and GDP Deflator ............................................................... 86 Average Retail Prices of Essential Items ................................................................................. 87 Indices of Wholesale Prices of Selected Commodities............................................................ 93 8 TRADE AND PAYMENTS 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 Summary of B.O.P .................................................................................................................. 97 Components of Balance of Payments (As Percent of GDP) .................................................... 98 Exports, Imports and Trade Balance ....................................................................................... 99 Unit Value Indices and Terms of Trade (T.O.T) ................................................................... 100 Economic Classification of Exports and Imports .................................................................. 102 Major Imports ........................................................................................................................ 104 Major Exports ........................................................................................................................ 105 Destination of Exports and Origin of Imports ....................................................................... 106 Workers' Remittances ............................................................................................................ 108 Gold and Cash Foreign Exchange Reserves held and controlled by State Bank of Pakistan ..................................................................................... 110 Exchange Rate Position (Pakistan Rupees in Terms of One Unit of Foreign Currency) ............................................................................................. 111 8.11 9 PUBLIC DEBT 9.1 Public and Publicly Guaranteed medium and long term external debt disbursed and outstanding As on 31-03-2021 ........................................................................................ 115 Commitments and Disbursements of Loans and Grants (By type) ........................................ 116 Annual Commitments, Disbursements, Service Payment and External Debt Outstanding .................................................................................................... 117 9.2 9.3 (ii)
401. 9 .4 9.5 9.6 9.7 Debt Service Payments on Foreign Loans (paid in foreign exchange) .................................. 118 Terms of Foreign Loan / Credits contracted by Pakistan ...................................................... 120 Grant Assistance Agreement Signed ..................................................................................... 123 Total Loans and Credit Contracted ........................................................................................ 124 10 EDUCATION 10.1 10.2 10.3 Number of Educational Institutions, by kind, level and sex .................................................. 127 Enrolment in education institutions by kind, level and sex ................................................... 128 Number of teachers in educational institutions in Pakistan, by kind, level and sex .............. 129 11 HEALTH AND NUTRITION 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 National Medical and Health Establishment ......................................................................... 133 Registered Medical and Para Medical Personnel and Expenditure on Health ....................... 134 Data on Expanded Programme of Immunization Vaccination Performance ........................ 135 Doctor Clinic Fee in various cities ........................................................................................ 136 12 POPULATION, LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.13 12.14 Population. ............................................................................................................................. 139 Population in Rural/Urban Areas. ......................................................................................... 140 Population in Urban/Rural Areas 1972, 1981 and 1998 Census............................................ 141 Population by Age, Sex Urban/Rural Areas 1981and 1998 Census ...................................... 142 Enumerated Population of Pakistan by Province, Land Area and Percentage Distribution 1951-2017 ................................................................................ 143 Literacy Ratios of Population by Sex, Region and Urban/Rural Areas, 1998 and 1981 Census .................................................................... 144 Land Area and Percent Distribution ...................................................................................... 145 Percentage Distribution of Population of 10 years and Above and Civilian Labour Force by Gender, Year2017-18 ................................................................... 146 Labour Force and Employment ............................................................................................. 147 Population and Labour Force ................................................................................................ 148 Distribution of Employed Persons of 10 Years Age and above by Major Industries .............................................................................................. 149 Percentage Distribution of Employed Persons of 10 Years Age and above by Major Industries, 2017-18 ..................................................................................................... 150 Age Specific Labour Force Participation Rate ...................................................................... 151 Daily Wages of Construction Workers in Different Cities .................................................... 152 13 TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS 13.1 A 13.1 B 13.1 C 13.1 D 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 Length of Roads .................................................................................................................... 155 Railways ................................................................................................................................ 156 Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) .................................................................. 157 Ports-Cargo Handled ............................................................................................................. 158 Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (Operational) .................................................... 159 Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (Revenue) ......................................................... 159 Number of Motor Vehicles Registered .................................................................................. 160 Motor Vehicles on Road LCV ............................................................................................... 161 Motor Vehicles on Road HCV .............................................................................................. 161 Motor Vehicles-Production ................................................................................................... 162 Motor Vehicles-Import .......................................................................................................... 163 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.10 12.11 12.12 (iii)
402. 13 .7 Post and Telecommunications ............................................................................................... 164 14 ENERGY 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Commercial Energy Consumption ........................................................................................ 167 Commercial Energy Supplies ................................................................................................ 170 Commercial Energy Supplies ............................................................................................... 171 Schedule of Electricity Tariffs ............................................................................................... 172 Oil Sale Prices ....................................................................................................................... 173 Gas Sale Prices ...................................................................................................................... 179 (iv)
404. ECONOMIC AND INDICATORS FINANCIAL SECTOR : GROWTH RATE (at constant fc) % GDP Agriculture Manufacturing Commodity Producing Sector Services Sector GROWTH RATES (at current mp) % Total Investment Fixed Investment Public Investment 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s Average (Annual) 2000s 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 6.8 5.1 9.9 6.8 6.7 4.8 2.4 5.5 3.9 6.3 6.5 5.4 8.2 6.5 6.7 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 2.8 7.3 4.8 5.2 5.0 1.8 6.1 5.1 4.9 0.4 3.5 -4.2 -0.9 1.3 2.6 0.2 1.4 1.8 3.2 3.6 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.9 14.8 14.0 21.8 20.5 25.3 4.2 3.7 2.6 8.1 7.8 7.3 15.6 15.7 12.5 17.7 17.9 21.0 13.4 12.4 11.2 1.4 0.3 -2.1 9.8 8.4 6.6 20.9 17.0 8.8 17.5 16.8 12.9 1.2 9.0 - 67.5 32.5 5.1 5.1 79.2 20.8 75.4 24.6 89.9 10.1 57.5 42.5 68.6 31.4 85.9 14.1 100.7 -0.7 - 17.1 15.9 10.3 5.6 11.2 5.8 7.4 - 18.7 17.0 9.2 7.8 14.8 3.9 7.7 2.3 18.3 16.6 7.5 9.1 13.8 4.5 14.0 8.3 17.9 16.4 4.6 11.8 15.9 2.0 14.6 746.0 8.4 19.2 17.6 4.8 12.8 11.0 8.2 9.1 1053.2 12.9 17.5 15.9 4.3 11.7 12.0 5.5 9.4 1026.1 20.7 15.8 14.2 3.7 10.5 13.6 2.2 9.8 1072.4 10.7 14.1 12.5 3.2 9.3 14.2 -0.1 9.7 1274.1 19.5 3.2 12.5 7.2 9.7 7.3 12.0 17.0 10.1 13.7 13.1 11.6 2.1 16.8 21.5 5.3 17.3 13.8 3.5 24.9 17.6 6.5 3.8 7.3 7.3 7.1 17.1 13.4 3.7 24.1 19.4 5.6 6.8 7.0 4.7 6.9 13.9 10.3 3.6 18.3 15.1 3.1 4.9 7.2 3.3 4.4 14.1 9.9 4.2 21.4 17.4 2.6 4.8 10.0 4.0 7.3 14.0 9.1 4.9 19.2 15.5 2.5 5.0 8.0 3.5 5.2 14.0 9.9 4.1 20.2 16.0 2.5 4.4 9.2 4.4 6.2 12.3 9.3 3.0 18.9 15.9 2.5 3.9 9.6 2.8 6.5 16.3 15.0 21.0 20.5 13.2 15.4 16.8 12.2 15.0 14.1 15.3 33.6 9.6 15.4 12.5 12.7 15.9 13.1 - - 0.1 2.5 4.1 13.4 27.2 29.1 -10.8 -6.0 -41.7 -43.9 35.7 28.8 28.5 20.3 (including general govt.) Private Investment (as % of Total Investment) National Savings Foreign Savings (as % of GDP current mp) Total Investment Fixed Investment Public Investment Private Investment National Savings Foreign Savings* Domestic Savings Per Capita Income (mp-US $)* GDP DEFLATOR (growth %) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) (growth %) FISCAL POLICY (as % of GDP mp) Total Revenue Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Total Expenditure Current Expenditure Defence Markup Payments Others Development Expenditure Overall Deficit MONEY & CREDIT (growth %) Monetary Assets (M2) Domestic Assets STOCK EXCHANGE (growth %) KSE 100 Index Aggregate Market Capitalization - : Not available mp : Market prices fc : Factor cost P: Provisional, R: Revised, *: At average exchange rate used in National Accounts Committee meeting **: July-April Note: From 2016-17, CPI is estimated on 2015-16=100 as base year 2 F: Final
405. SOCIAL INDICATORS Base Year 2005-06 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 F R (Jul-Mar) P 3.8 3.6 2.1 3.1 4.4 3.7 2.7 4.9 1.7 5.1 4.1 2.5 5.7 3.5 4.5 4.1 2.1 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.6 0.2 3.7 2.9 5.7 5.2 2.2 5.8 3.4 6.5 5.5 4.0 5.4 4.3 6.3 2.1 0.6 -0.7 -0.5 3.8 -0.5 3.3 -7.4 -0.3 -0.6 3.9 2.8 8.7 3.2 4.4 17.1 18.1 27.2 10.8 10.7 4.9 10.0 9.7 1.2 17.0 18.0 29.0 5.8 5.8 7.0 13.0 13.4 30.5 16.4 17.3 25.4 -0.8 -1.9 -24.4 7.0 6.7 -3.7 13.9 13.8 38.1 14.9 12.9 12.8 14.5 5.4 7.1 13.7 9.2 10.3 6.6 86.3 13.8 92.8 7.2 91.3 8.7 93.4 6.6 88.9 11.1 74.4 25.6 64.9 35.1 69.3 3.7 89.0 11.0 100.4 -0.4 15.1 13.5 3.7 9.7 13.0 2.1 7.8 1320.5 5.7 15.0 13.4 3.5 9.8 13.9 1.1 8.7 1333.7 7.1 14.6 13.0 3.2 9.9 13.4 1.3 7.7 1388.8 7.4 15.7 14.1 3.7 10.4 14.7 1.0 8.6 1514.0 4.3 15.7 14.1 3.8 10.3 13.9 1.7 7.8 1529.4 0.5 16.2 14.6 4.5 10.1 12.0 4.1 6.5 1630.1 4.0 17.3 15.7 5.2 10.5 11.3 6.1 5.9 1651.9 2.4 15.6 14.0 3.6 10.5 10.8 4.8 4.1 1459.1 8.6 15.3 13.7 3.2 10.6 13.6 1.7 5.8 1360.9 10.1 15.2 13.6 3.8 9.8 15.3 -0.1 5.8 1542.5 9.8 11.0 7.4 8.6 4.5 2.9 4.8 4.7 6.8 10.7 8.6 12.8 10.2 2.6 21.6 17.3 2.5 4.5 10.3 3.9 8.8 13.3 9.8 3.5 21.5 16.4 2.4 4.5 9.5 5.1 8.2 14.5 10.2 4.3 20.0 15.9 2.5 4.6 8.9 4.9 5.5 14.3 11.0 3.3 19.6 16.1 2.5 4.8 8.8 4.2 5.3 15.3 12.6 2.7 19.9 16.1 2.6 4.3 9.2 4.5 4.6 15.5 12.4 3.0 21.3 16.3 2.8 4.2 9.3 5.3 5.8 15.1 12.9 2.2 21.6 16.9 3.0 4.3 9.6 4.6 6.5 12.9 11.8 1.1 22.0 18.7 3.0 5.5 10.2 3.1 9.0 15.1 11.4 3.7 23.2 20.5 2.9 6.3 11.3 2.8 8.1 10.5 7.9 2.6 13.9 12.8 1.6 4.4 6.7 1.4 3.5 14.1 20.2 15.9 20.9 12.5 9.1 13.2 11.7 13.7 12.9 13.7 18.3 9.7 15.9 11.3 19.1 17.5 11.0 7.8 4.4 10.4 6.2 52.2 47.6 41.2 36.2 16.0 5.7 9.8 2.3 23.2 25.5 -10.0 -9.0 -20.5 -19.1 1.5 5.2 29.5 20.9 As per PBS Per capita income during 2016-17 is Rs 162,101 based on final figures of Population Census 2017 i.e. 207,684,626 held in March 2017. The revised series of per capita income will be compiled after receipt of projected population from NIPS. 3 (Contd...) **
406. ECONOMIC AND 1960s INDICATORS TRADE AND PAYMENTS (growth %) Exports (fob) Imports (fob) Workers' Remittances As % of GDP (mp) Exports (fob) Imports (fob) Trade Deficit Current Account Deficit COMMODITY SECTOR: Agriculture Total Cropped Area mln. hectares Production Wheat mln. tons Rice mln. tons Sugarcane mln. tons Cotton mln. bales Fertilizer Offtake mln.N/tons Credit Disbursed bln. Rs. Manufacturing Cotton Yarn mln. Kg. Cotton Cloth mln. sq. mtr. Fertilizer mln. tons Sugar mln. tons Cement mln. tons Soda Ash 000 tons Caustic Soda 000 tons Cigarettes bln. nos. Jute Goods 000 tons INFRASTRUCTURE: Energy Crude Oil Extraction mln. barrels Gas (supply) bcf Electricity (installed capacity) 000 MW Transport & Communications Roads 000 km Motor Vehicles on Roads mln. nos. Post Offices 000 nos. Telephones mln. nos. Mobile Phones mln. nos. - : Not available P: Provisional, R: Revised, 1970s 1980s 1990s Average (Annual) 2000s 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 - 13.5 16.6 - 8.5 4.5 1.9 5.6 3.2 -5.3 9.9 13.7 26.8 4.5 8.0 19.4 18.0 31.6 17.4 -6.4 -10.3 21.1 2.9 -1.7 14.0 - - 9.8 18.7 8.9 3.9 13.0 17.4 4.4 4.5 12.3 16.2 3.9 3.8 11.2 17.5 6.2 4.8 12.0 20.8 8.8 8.2 11.4 18.9 7.5 5.5 11.1 17.5 6.5 2.2 - - 20.3 22.4 22.9 23.6 23.9 24.1 23.9 - - 12.5 3.3 33.1 6.3 1.4 11.2 17.0 3.9 44.6 9.7 2.3 23.8 20.8 5.2 50.4 11.6 3.3 112.9 23.3 5.4 54.7 12.9 3.7 168.8 20.9 5.6 63.9 11.7 3.6 211.6 24.0 6.9 50.0 11.8 3.7 233.0 23.3 6.9 49.4 12.9 4.4 248.1 5.6 3.1 27.5 34.3 10.7 12.0 24.4 10.7 - 3.4 -5.2 13.2 2.2 2.5 2.6 5.0 4.9 3.4 10.0 1884.4 2236.2 -1.1 487.8 763.3 10.7 4.9 5.3 14.4 3.6 3.4 8.6 11.2 16.4 6.7 269.0 292.6 6.6 147.2 195.0 -0.4 55.4 60.0 9.5 101.1 105.0 2727.6 1012.9 5.9 3.5 22.8 330.6 242.2 66.0 118.1 2809.4 1016.4 6.1 4.7 26.7 365.0 248.3 67.4 129.0 2913.0 1016.9 6.3 3.2 28.4 365.3 245.3 75.6 137.4 2787.3 1009.4 6.5 3.1 31.3 409.6 182.3 65.3 106.2 - 2.8 165.4 1.3 10.9 385.2 3.1 26.1 23.3 908.0 1186.8 12.9 18.7 24.6 1413.6 19.4 25.6 1454.2 19.4 24.0 1460.7 19.8 23.7 1482.8 20.9 70.5 7.1 0.1 - 74.1 0.4 9.0 0.2 - 123.8 1.4 11.8 0.6 - 279.3 4.6 15.8 3.3 - 261.8 8.1 12.3 4.8 63.2 258.4 8.8 12.4 4.5 88.0 260.2 9.4 12.3 3.5 94.3 260.8 9.8 12.0 3.4 99.2 F: Final *: July-April 4 255.6 6.4 12.3 4.2 30.3
407. SOCIAL INDICATORS 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 F R (Jul-Mar) P 28.9 14.9 25.8 -2.6 12.8 17.7 0.3 -0.6 5.6 1.1 3.8 13.7 -3.9 -0.8 18.2 -8.8 -0.6 6.4 0.1 16.7 -2.8 12.6 16.0 2.9 -2.1 -6.8 9.2 -7.1 -15.9 6.4 6.5 13.5 29.0 * 11.9 16.7 4.9 +0.1 11.0 18.0 7.0 2.1 10.7 17.4 6.6 1.1 10.2 17.0 6.8 1.3 8.9 15.3 6.4 1.0 7.9 14.7 6.9 1.8 7.2 15.7 8.5 4.0 7.9 17.7 9.8 6.1 8.7 18.5 9.9 4.8 8.7 16.6 8.0 1.7 7.0 14.2 7.1 +0.3 * 22.7 22.5 22.6 23.2 23.3 24.0 23.0 23.5 23.5 23.5 - 25.2 4.8 55.3 11.5 3.9 263.0 23.5 6.2 58.4 13.6 3.9 293.9 24.2 5.5 63.8 13.0 3.6 336.2 26.0 6.8 67.5 12.8 4.1 391.4 25.1 7.0 62.8 14.0 4.3 515.9 25.6 6.8 65.5 9.9 3.7 598.3 26.7 6.8 75.5 10.7 5.0 704.5 25.1 7.5 83.3 11.9 4.8 972.6 24.3 7.2 67.2 9.9 4.6 1174.0 25.2 7.4 66.4 9.1 4.5 1214.7 27.3 8.4 81.0 7.1 3.9 953.7 2939.5 1020.3 5.9 4.2 28.8 378.0 172.0 65.4 93.2 2954.6 1023.4 6.0 4.6 29.5 370.7 179.1 62.0 94.1 3017.9 1029.1 5.7 5.1 31.1 366.2 182.9 67.4 102.8 3066.0 1036.1 6.7 5.6 31.4 409.1 167.5 64.5 101.7 3360.0 1036.1 7.0 5.1 32.2 437.1 184.0 62.7 94.3 3405.6 1039.2 8.0 5.1 35.4 468.5 225.3 53.5 55.3 3428.1 1043.3 8.1 7.0 37.0 479.7 223.9 34.3 59.8 3430.1 1043.7 7.2 6.6 41.1 509.8 270.1 59.1 74.2 3431.4 1046.0 7.7 5.3 39.9 572.1 246.6 60.7 67.1 3059.9 934.5 8.1 4.9 39.1 550.6 315.6 46.1 65.0 2577.7 786.0 4.6 5.6 37.6 439.4 292.0 39.5 52.7 24.0 1471.6 22.5 24.6 1559.0 22.8 27.8 1505.8 22.8 31.6 1493.5 23.5 34.5 1465.8 23.8 31.7 1481.6 25.9 32.3 1471.9 29.9 32.6 1458.9 33.6 32.5 1436.5 35.1 28.1 1316.6 38.6 20.8 962.4 37.2 259.5 10.4 12.0 5.7 108.9 261.6 11.5 12.0 5.8 120.2 263.4 11.6 12.8 6.4 128.9 263.8 13.2 12.1 5.7 140.0 265.4 13.9 12.1 4.2 114.7 265.9 15.6 11.7 3.3 133.2 267.0 21.9 11.5 2.6 139.8 268.9 24.3 11.5 2.6 150.2 271.0 25.2 10.1 2.6 161.0 501.4 30.0 10.1 2.4 167.3 493.1 31.0 10.1 2.5 181.7 (Contd...) 5 * * * * *
408. ECONOMIC AND 1960s INDICATORS HUMAN RESOURCES : Population* Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate Labour Force & Employment** Labour Force Employed Labour Force Un-employed Labour Force Un-employment Rate SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: Education Primary Schools Male Female Middle Schools Male Female High Schools Male Female Technical / Vocational Institutions Male Female Literacy Rate Male Female Expenditure on Education million per 1000 person per 1000 person per 1000 person million million million % per annum 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. nos. percent (as % of GDP) Health* Registered Doctors Registered Nurses Registered Dentists Hospitals Dispensaries Rural Health Centers TB Centres Total Beds Expenditure on Health (as % of GDP) P: Provisional, R: Revised, F: Final * : on Calendar Year basis Notes: Total may differ due to rounding off 000 nos. 000 nos. 000 nos. nos. 000 nos. nos. nos. 000 nos. 1970s 1980s Average (Annual) 1990s 2000s 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 - - 96.3 - 124.6 - 150.9 27.4 7.9 79.6 155.4 26.1 8.2 77.0 158.2 26.1 7.1 76.7 161.0 26.1 7.1 76.7 163.8 24.3 7.3 68.2 - - 11.6 11.2 0.4 1.4 35.1 33.1 2.0 5.7 45.5 42.4 3.6 6.8 46.8 43.2 3.6 7.6 50.5 47.3 3.1 6.2 50.8 48.1 2.7 5.2 52.2 49.5 2.7 5.2 - - 88.8 64.6 24.2 6.8 4.6 2.2 5.4 3.9 1.5 143.5 96.4 47.1 15.3 8.8 6.5 10.6 7.4 3.2 155.2 96.6 58.6 31.9 16.7 15.2 18.6 12.2 6.3 157.5 97.7 59.8 39.4 20.1 19.3 22.9 14.8 8.1 158.7 97.8 60.9 40.1 22.6 17.5 23.6 14.6 9.0 157.4 92.5 64.9 40.8 20.2 20.6 24.0 15.0 9.0 156.7 93.3 63.4 40.9 20.5 20.4 24.3 15.1 9.2 - - 508.6 282.2 235.2 29.5 39.0 18.7 572.2 328.7 243.5 40.7 51.6 28.6 1623.8 874.8 749.0 52.6 65.7 41.4 3059.0 1584.0 1475.0 54.0 65.0 42.0 3090.0 1599.0 1491.0 55.0 67.0 42.0 3125.0 1618.0 1507.0 56.0 69.0 44.0 3159.0 1636.0 1523.0 57.0 69.0 45.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 0.2 380.0 1.7 25.5 6.3 2.9 0.7 521.0 2.8 1.0 90.0 38.4 28.1 9.9 1.4 651.0 3.5 127.0 122.0 55.6 68.9 24.1 2.8 823.0 4.3 330.0 245.0 83.8 109.7 48.7 6.0 917.5 4.7 494.0 283.7 99.3 123.1 57.6 7.4 924.0 4.7 560.0 288.0 102.1 128.0 62.6 8.2 945.0 4.7 562.0 290.0 103.3 133.9 65.4 9.0 948.0 4.8 561.0 293.0 103.0 139.5 69.3 9.8 968.0 4.8 572.0 293.0 103.7 - 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 - : Not available **: Labour Force Survey 2017-18 Population Data revised from 2016 on the basis of projections provided by NIPS (NIPS projected data based on Census 1998) 6 1.8
409. SOCIAL INDICATORS 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 F 2020-21 R (July-March) P 173.5 28.0 7.4 72.0 177.1 27.5 7.3 70.5 180.7 27.2 7.2 69.0 184.4 26.8 7.0 67.5 188.0 26.4 6.9 66.1 191.7 26.1 6.8 64.6 198.8 27.8 7.0 62.4 202.9 27.3 6.9 61.4 207.0 26.7 6.8 60.5 211.2 26.1 6.7 59.5 215.3 25.4 6.6 58.5 - 53.7 50.8 2.9 5.5 58.1 54.7 3.5 6.0 59.3 55.8 3.5 6.0 60.3 56.6 3.8 6.2 60.1 56.5 3.6 6.0 61.04 - 65.5 61.7 3.8 5.8 - 5.9 - - - - 157.5 96.9 60.6 41.3 21.8 19.5 24.8 14.2 10.6 155.5 93.6 58.2 41.6 21.9 20.4 25.2 14.4 9.5 154.6 93.6 57.0 42.0 21.6 21.0 28.7 14.3 11.6 159.7 99.6 60.1 42.1 20.7 21.4 29.9 17.6 12.3 157.9 97.6 60.3 42.9 21.8 21.1 30.6 18.0 12.6 165.9 99.9 66.0 44.8 22.4 22.4 31.3 18.2 13.1 164.6 99.3 65.3 45.7 18.7 27.0 31.7 16.1 15.6 168.9 102.8 66.1 49.1 21.2 27.9 31.6 16.9 14.7 172.5 99.0 73.5 46.7 23.2 23.5 31.4 17.9 13.5 182.7 95.4 87.3 47.3 20.7 26.6 31.7 17.3 14.4 187.1 93.2 93.9 48.3 20.6 27.7 32.0 17.2 14.8 - 3192.0 1010.0 2182.0 57.7 69.5 45.2 3224.0 1018.0 2206.0 58.0 69.0 46.0 3257.0 1028.0 2229.0 58.0 70.0 47.0 3290.0 1037.0 2253.0 60.0 71.0 48.0 3323.0 1047.0 2276.0 58.0 70.0 47.0 3579.0 1760.0 1819.0 60.0 70.0 49.0 3746.0 2232.0 1514.0 58.0 70.0 48.0 3798.0 2262.0 1536.0 - 3740.0 3882.0 2410.0 2473.0 1330.0 1409.0 62.3 ** 60.0 72.5 ** 71.0 51.8 ** 49.0 3998.0 2677.0 1321.0 60.0 70.0 50.0 - 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.5 - 144.9 73.2 10.5 972.0 4.8 577.0 304.0 104.1 152.4 77.7 11.6 980.0 5.0 579.0 345.0 107.5 160.9 82.1 12.7 1092.0 5.2 640.0 326.0 111.8 167.7 86.1 13.7 1113.0 5.4 667.0 329.0 118.4 175.2 90.3 15.1 1143.0 5.5 669.0 334.0 118.2 184.7 94.8 16.7 1172.0 5.7 684.0 339.0 119.5 195.9 99.2 18.3 1243.0 6.0 668.0 345.0 124.8 208.0 103.8 20.5 1264.0 5.6 688.0 431.0 131.0 220.8 108.5 22.6 1279.0 5.7 686.0 441.0 132.2 233.3 112.1 24.9 1282.0 5.7 670.0 412.0 133.7 245.0 116.7 27.4 1282.0 5.7 67.0 412.0 133.7 - 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 - 57.4 3.62 7 - -
410.                              
412.                              
413. TABLE 1 .1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT BASIC PRICES OF 2005-06 Sectors A AGRICULTURE 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2,156,117 2,202,043 2,205,433 2,253,565 2,343,614 2,356,827 2,434,850 2,502,181 3.3 2.8 1. Crops 867,133 868,494 822,689 832,744 871,796 828,596 874,504 896,102 5.5 2.5 Important Crops 562,707 553,568 521,125 534,659 553,693 511,129 537,929 562,964 5.2 4.7 Other Crops 243,890 250,006 251,005 244,703 260,026 266,791 288,344 292,420 8.1 1.4 60,536 64,920 50,559 53,382 58,077 50,676 48,231 40,718 -4.8 -15.6 1,198,671 1,246,512 1,288,373 1,326,948 1,375,986 1,428,608 1,458,624 1,503,254 2.1 3.1 46,555 40,761 46,592 45,505 46,679 50,076 51,880 52,617 3.6 1.4 0.7 Cotton Ginning 2. Livestock 3. Forestry 4. Fishing B. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 1. Mining & Quarrying 2. Manufacturing 43,758 46,276 47,779 48,368 49,153 49,547 49,842 50,208 0.6 2,089,776 2,198,027 2,323,169 2,428,902 2,540,894 2,501,345 2,407,093 2,493,031 -3.8 3.6 298,856 313,707 333,121 331,121 356,949 361,221 331,309 309,823 -8.3 -6.5 1,387,556 1,441,461 1,494,591 1,581,680 1,667,524 1,656,069 1,533,747 1,667,362 -7.4 8.7 Large Scale 1,122,266 1,159,052 1,193,569 1,260,836 1,325,429 1,290,942 1,160,247 1,268,043 -10.1 9.3 Small Scale 169,677 183,607 198,652 214,839 232,383 251,532 255,303 276,530 1.5 8.3 Slaughtering 95,613 98,802 102,370 106,005 109,712 113,595 118,197 122,789 4.1 3.9 164,054 186,174 203,661 198,180 164,067 186,328 228,065 175,700 22.4 -23.0 3. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 239,310 256,685 291,796 317,921 352,354 297,727 313,972 340,146 5.5 8.3 COMMODITY PRODUCING SECTOR (A+B) 4. Construction 4,245,893 4,400,070 4,528,602 4,682,467 4,884,508 4,858,172 4,841,943 4,995,212 -0.3 3.2 C. SERVICES SECTOR 5,971,163 6,231,579 6,588,200 7,014,467 7,459,758 7,742,479 7,699,891 8,041,169 -0.6 4.4 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,894,410 1,943,612 2,035,509 2,187,751 2,331,415 2,356,539 2,263,668 2,453,199 -3.9 8.4 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 1,355,570 1,424,255 1,493,830 1,557,639 1,587,297 1,660,907 1,597,828 1,588,101 -3.8 -0.6 3. Finance & Insurance 315,428 335,448 356,981 396,669 426,012 445,219 450,270 485,574 1.1 7.8 4. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 691,093 718,674 747,343 777,140 808,172 840,489 874,219 909,247 4.0 4.0 5. General Government Services 723,823 758,746 832,505 882,015 986,125 1,037,147 1,047,767 1,070,833 1.0 2.2 6. Other Private Services 990,839 1,050,844 1,122,032 1,213,253 1,320,737 1,402,178 1,466,139 1,534,215 4.6 4.6 10,217,056 10,631,649 11,116,802 11,696,934 12,344,266 12,600,651 12,541,834 13,036,381 -0.5 3.9 Indirest Taxes 556,679 616,350 724,998 795,386 862,628 795,748 740,311 812,900 -7.0 9.8 Subsidies 136,844 107,861 85,976 83,545 73,891 113,056 123,053 71,924 8.8 -41.6 10,636,891 11,140,138 11,755,824 12,408,775 13,133,003 13,283,343 13,159,092 13,777,357 -0.9 4.7 474,006 548,903 675,096 669,191 673,876 874,614 1,089,918 1,484,683 24.6 36.2 11,110,897 11,689,041 12,430,920 13,077,966 13,806,879 14,157,957 14,249,010 15,262,040 0.6 7.1 186.19 189.87 193.56 197.26 200.96 204.65 208.31 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A + B + C)} GDP {GVA + T - S} Net Factor Income from Abroad Gross National Income Population (in million) P: Provisional R: Revised F: Final 11 211.93 1.8 1.7 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
414. TABLE 1 .2 SECTORAL SHARE IN GDP (%) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R (%) 2020-21 P 21.10 20.71 19.84 19.27 18.99 18.70 19.41 19.19 8.49 8.17 7.40 7.12 7.06 6.58 6.97 6.87 Important Crops 5.51 5.21 4.69 4.57 4.49 4.06 4.29 4.32 Other Crops 2.39 2.35 2.26 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.30 2.24 Cotton Ginning 0.59 0.61 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.40 0.38 0.31 2. Livestock 11.73 11.72 11.59 11.34 11.15 11.34 11.63 11.53 3. Forestry 0.46 0.38 0.42 0.39 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.40 4. Fishing 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.39 B. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 20.45 20.67 20.90 20.77 20.58 19.85 19.19 19.12 Sector A. AGRICULTURE 1. Crops 1. Mining & Quarrying 2.93 2.95 3.00 2.83 2.89 2.87 2.64 2.38 2. Manufacturing 13.58 13.56 13.44 13.52 13.51 13.14 12.23 12.79 Large Scale 10.98 10.90 10.74 10.78 10.74 10.25 9.25 9.73 Small Scale 1.66 1.73 1.79 1.84 1.88 2.00 2.04 2.12 Slaughtering 3. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.94 0.94 1.61 1.75 1.83 1.69 1.33 1.48 1.82 1.35 4. Construction 2.34 2.41 2.62 2.72 2.85 2.36 2.50 2.61 41.56 41.39 40.74 40.03 39.57 38.55 38.61 38.32 58.44 58.61 59.26 59.97 60.43 61.45 61.39 61.68 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 18.54 18.28 18.31 18.70 18.89 18.70 18.05 18.82 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 13.27 13.40 13.44 13.32 12.86 13.18 12.74 12.18 3. Finance & Insurance 3.09 3.16 3.21 3.39 3.45 3.53 3.59 3.72 4. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 6.76 6.76 6.72 6.64 6.55 6.67 6.97 6.97 5. General Government Services 7.08 7.14 7.49 7.54 7.99 8.23 8.35 8.21 COMMODITY PRODUCING SECTOR (A+B) C. SERVICES SECTOR 6. Other Private Services GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A + B + C)} P: Provisional R: Revised 9.70 9.88 10.09 10.37 10.70 11.13 11.69 11.77 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 F: Final Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 12
415. TABLE 1 .3 GROWTH RATES (%) Sector 2.64 (%) 2020-21 P 4.00 0.56 3.31 2.77 4.69 -4.96 5.54 2.47 2.60 3.56 -7.69 5.24 4.65 0.40 -2.51 6.26 2.60 8.08 1.41 -22.12 5.58 8.80 -12.74 -4.82 -15.58 3.06 2017-18 2.13 0.15 2.18 0.16 -5.27 1.22 7.22 -1.62 -5.86 Other Crops -5.71 2.51 Cotton Ginning -1.33 7.24 Important Crops 2.50 2019-20 R 2016-17 1. Crops 2014-15 2018-19 F 2015-16 A. Agriculture 2013-14 2. Livestock 2.48 3.99 3.36 2.99 3.70 3.82 2.10 3. Forestry 1.88 -12.45 14.31 -2.33 2.58 7.28 3.60 1.42 4. Fishing 0.98 5.75 3.25 1.23 1.62 0.80 0.60 0.73 B. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 4.53 5.18 5.69 4.55 4.61 -1.56 -3.77 3.57 1. Mining & Quarrying 1.40 4.97 6.19 -0.60 7.80 1.20 -8.28 -6.49 2. Manufacturing 5.65 3.88 3.69 5.83 5.43 -0.69 -7.39 8.71 Large Scale 5.46 3.28 2.98 5.64 5.12 -2.60 -10.12 9.29 Small Scale 8.29 8.21 8.19 8.15 8.17 8.24 1.50 8.31 3.38 3.34 3.61 3.55 3.50 3.54 4.05 3.89 -0.74 13.48 9.39 -2.69 -17.21 13.57 22.40 -22.96 5.96 7.26 13.68 8.95 10.83 -15.50 5.46 8.34 3.49 3.63 2.92 3.40 4.31 -0.54 -0.33 3.17 4.46 4.36 5.72 6.47 6.35 3.79 -0.55 4.43 4.77 2.60 4.73 7.48 6.57 1.08 -3.94 8.37 Slaughtering 3. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 4. Construction COMMODITY PRODUCING SECTOR (A+B) C. SERVICES SECTOR 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 3.90 5.07 4.89 4.27 1.90 4.64 -3.80 -0.61 3. Finance & Insurance 4.31 6.35 6.42 11.12 7.40 4.51 1.13 7.84 4. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 4.00 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 4.00 4.01 4.01 5. General Government Services 2.86 4.82 9.72 5.95 11.80 5.17 1.02 2.20 6. Other Private Services 6.22 6.06 6.77 8.13 8.86 6.17 4.56 4.64 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A + B + C)} 4.05 4.06 4.56 5.22 5.53 2.08 -0.47 3.94 P: Provisional R: Revised F: Final Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 13
416. TABLE 1 .4 EXPENDITURE ON GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES OF 2005-06 Flows Household Final Consumption Expenditure General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Total Investment Gross Fixed Capital Formation A. Private Sector 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P 8,304,881 8,545,418 9,196,738 9,978,329 10,598,522 10,922,533 10,470,713 11,242,554 Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 -4.14 7.37 1,129,117 1,220,931 1,321,395 1,390,837 1,510,861 1,523,036 1,626,355 1,692,596 6.78 4.07 1,536,447 1,760,001 1,887,998 2,073,722 2,295,850 2,037,035 2,016,039 2,130,826 -1.03 5.69 1,366,256 1,581,759 1,699,905 1,875,181 2,085,722 1,824,501 1,805,494 1,910,389 -1.04 5.81 1,062,261 1,190,708 1,278,275 1,334,422 1,427,631 1,388,633 1,436,843 1,418,203 3.47 -1.30 B. Public Sector 82,094 110,647 93,165 142,146 175,590 151,844 84,970 127,383 -44.04 49.92 C. General Govt. 221,902 280,404 328,466 398,614 482,500 284,024 283,681 364,802 -0.12 28.60 Change in Inventories Export of Goods and Non-Factor Services Less Imports of Goods 170,190 178,242 188,093 198,540 210,128 212,533 210,545 220,438 -0.94 4.70 and Non-Factor Services Expenditure on GDP at Market Prices Plus Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World Expenditure on GNP at Market Prices Less Indirect Taxes Plus Subsidies GNP at Factor Cost P: Provisional R: Revised 1,225,028 1,147,318 1,128,923 1,121,671 1,263,892 1,447,078 1,482,911 1,575,286 2.48 6.23 1,558,582 1,533,530 1,779,230 2,155,784 2,536,122 2,646,339 2,436,926 2,863,905 -7.91 17.52 10,636,891 11,140,138 11,755,824 12,408,775 13,133,003 13,283,343 13,159,092 13,777,357 -0.94 4.70 474,006 548,903 675,096 669,191 673,876 874,614 1,089,918 1,484,683 24.62 36.22 11,110,897 11,689,041 12,430,920 13,077,966 13,806,879 14,157,957 14,249,010 15,262,040 0.64 7.11 556,679 616,350 724,998 795,386 862,628 795,748 740,311 812,900 -6.97 9.81 71,924 8.84 -41.55 136,844 107,861 85,976 83,545 73,891 113,056 123,053 10,691,062 F: Final 11,180,552 11,791,898 12,366,125 13,018,142 13,475,265 13,631,752 14 14,521,064 1.16 6.52 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
417. TABLE 1 .5 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES Sectors Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P A. Agriculture 5,976,217 6,536,122 6,749,966 7,318,465 7,911,779 8,368,631 9,612,331 11,542,998 14.86 1. Crops 2,612,933 2,690,102 2,620,390 2,826,463 2,964,894 2,888,671 3,702,887 4,642,762 28.19 25.38 1,760,329 1,735,888 1,718,029 1,827,252 1,890,555 1,803,359 2,333,252 3,068,717 29.38 31.52 Other Crops 695,138 769,867 739,842 811,971 874,378 909,337 1,170,812 1,376,753 28.75 17.59 Cotton Ginning 157,467 184,347 162,519 187,240 199,961 175,975 198,822 197,293 12.98 -0.77 3,129,682 3,612,244 3,846,646 4,180,531 4,615,565 5,119,066 5,509,117 6,470,351 7.62 17.45 3. Forestry 153,722 142,902 170,706 172,578 183,199 202,162 220,332 244,184 8.99 10.83 4. Fishing 79,880 90,873 112,223 138,893 148,121 158,732 179,995 185,701 13.40 3.17 5,040,094 5,239,146 5,308,368 5,683,545 6,200,543 7,010,231 7,364,291 8,128,397 5.05 10.38 -10.82 Important Crops 2. Livestock B. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 1. Mining & Quarrying 20.09 741,022 707,236 652,814 644,686 755,778 1,004,203 1,095,298 976,819 9.07 2. Manufacturing 3,408,468 3,510,536 3,512,556 3,830,210 4,217,685 4,730,014 4,764,739 5,621,560 0.73 17.98 Large Scale 2,824,463 2,853,222 2,801,169 3,044,603 3,331,305 3,722,568 3,646,994 4,282,289 -2.03 17.42 Small Scale 327,030 373,595 406,648 457,088 506,839 572,034 624,546 755,325 9.18 20.94 Slaughtering 3. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 256,975 283,719 304,739 328,520 379,542 435,412 493,199 583,946 13.27 18.40 406,192 480,515 541,909 529,040 435,889 530,908 717,505 611,169 35.15 -14.82 4. Construction 484,412 540,859 601,089 679,609 791,191 745,106 786,749 918,849 5.59 16.79 COMMODITY PRODUCING SECTOR (A+B) 11,016,311 11,775,268 12,058,334 13,002,010 14,112,322 15,378,862 16,976,622 19,671,395 10.39 15.87 C. SERVICES SECTOR 13,012,586 14,314,423 15,343,961 16,975,549 18,270,699 20,518,341 22,374,227 25,223,552 9.05 12.73 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 4,924,462 5,045,262 5,104,854 5,792,701 6,232,618 6,902,928 7,196,739 8,419,076 4.26 16.98 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 2,474,818 3,107,785 3,518,864 3,697,932 3,523,539 3,866,033 4,065,331 4,785,777 5.16 17.72 584,074 595,961 544,301 594,362 684,623 908,121 1,106,187 916,265 21.81 -17.17 4. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 1,229,110 1,371,443 1,506,385 1,668,521 1,848,594 2,059,629 2,275,293 2,485,965 10.47 9.26 5. General Government Services 1,660,434 1,818,477 2,050,560 2,263,393 2,629,924 2,968,885 3,332,876 3,670,326 12.26 10.12 3. Finance & Insurance 6. Other Private Services 2,139,688 2,375,495 2,618,997 2,958,640 3,351,401 3,812,745 4,397,801 4,946,143 15.34 12.47 24,028,897 26,089,690 27,402,295 29,977,559 32,383,021 35,897,203 39,350,849 44,894,947 9.62 14.09 1,480,099 1,633,881 1,901,743 2,170,448 2,435,629 2,515,836 2,599,306 3,065,120 3.32 17.92 340,191 280,549 228,405 225,704 202,348 326,807 393,829 250,742 20.51 -36.33 25,168,805 27,443,022 29,075,633 31,922,303 34,616,302 38,086,232 41,556,326 47,709,325 9.11 14.81 1,428,227 1,674,811 1,782,860 1,743,643 1,846,151 2,550,025 3,242,724 4,513,289 27.16 39.18 26,597,032 29,117,833 30,858,493 33,665,946 36,462,453 40,636,257 44,799,050 52,222,614 10.24 16.57 186.19 189.87 193.6 197.3 201.0 204.7 208.3 211.9 1.79 1.74 Per Capita Income(Rs)* 142,849 153,357 159,426 170,672 181,441 198,565 215,060 246,414 8.31 14.58 Per Capita Income(US $) 1,388.8 1,514.0 1,529.4 1,630.1 1,651.9 1,459.1 1,360.9 1,542.5 -6.73 13.35 GDP Deflator Index 235.18 245.40 246.49 256.29 262.33 284.88 313.76 344.38 10.14 9.76 GDP Deflator (Growth %) 7.39 4.34 0.45 3.97 2.36 P: Provisional R: Revised F: Final * : Per capita income during 2016-17 is Rs 162101 based on final figures of Population Census 2017 i.e. 207,684,626 held in March 2017. The revised series of per capita income will be compiled after receipt of projected population from NIPS 8.60 10.14 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A + B + C)} Indirest Taxes Subsidies GDP {GVA + T - S} Net Factor Income from Abroad Gross National Product (mp) Population (in million) 15 9.76 Source : Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
418. TABLE 1 .6 EXPENDITURE ON GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES Rs million Flows Household Final Consumption Expenditure General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Total Investment Gross Fixed Capital Formation A. Private Sector B. Public Sector C. General Govt. Change in Inventories Export of Goods and Non-Factor Services Less Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services Expenditure on GDP at Market Prices Plus Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World Expenditure on GNP at at Market Prices Less Indirect Taxes Plus Subsidies GNP at Factor Cost P: Provisional R: Revised % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P 20,391,214 21,890,279 23,266,454 26,148,647 28,400,347 31,547,687 32,949,371 38,501,127 4.44 16.85 2,708,918 3,011,195 3,287,930 3,599,000 4,054,823 4,457,033 5,318,942 5,925,068 19.34 11.40 3,683,523 4,310,484 4,560,840 5,155,623 6,003,330 5,954,753 6,369,596 7,255,379 6.97 13.91 3,280,822 2,483,817 207,012 589,993 402,701 3,871,396 2,843,159 284,912 743,325 439,088 4,095,630 2,995,889 238,143 861,598 465,210 4,644,866 3,209,360 347,770 1,087,737 510,757 5,449,469 3,649,178 437,951 1,362,340 553,861 5,345,374 3,984,517 463,085 897,771 609,380 5,704,695 4,393,570 314,753 996,372 664,901 6,492,030 4,681,348 435,158 1,375,524 763,349 6.72 10.27 -32.03 10.98 9.11 13.80 6.55 38.25 38.05 14.81 3,081,312 2,910,171 2,659,178 2,635,927 3,105,763 3,842,425 4,168,760 4,733,736 8.49 13.55 4,696,162 4,679,107 4,698,769 5,616,894 6,947,961 7,715,666 7,250,343 8,705,985 -6.03 20.08 25,168,805 27,443,022 29,075,633 31,922,303 34,616,302 38,086,232 41,556,326 47,709,325 9.11 14.81 4,513,289 27.16 39.18 1,428,227 1,674,811 1,782,860 1,743,643 1,846,151 2,550,025 3,242,724 26,597,032 1,480,099 340,191 25,457,124 F: Final 29,117,833 1,633,881 280,549 27,764,501 30,858,493 1,901,743 228,405 29,185,155 33,665,946 2,170,448 225,704 31,721,202 36,462,453 2,435,629 202,348 34,229,172 40,636,257 2,515,836 326,807 38,447,228 44,799,050 2,599,306 393,829 42,593,573 16 52,222,614 10.24 16.57 3,065,120 3.32 17.92 250,742 20.51 -36.33 49,408,236 10.78 16.00 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
419. TABLE 1 .7 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE, PUBLIC, AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES Sector Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P GFCF (A+B+C) 3,280,822 3,871,396 4,095,630 4,644,866 5,449,469 5,345,374 5,704,695 6,492,030 6.7 A. Private Sector 2,483,817 2,843,159 2,995,889 3,209,360 3,649,178 3,984,517 4,393,570 4,681,348 10.3 6.5 207,012 284,912 238,143 347,770 437,951 463,085 314,753 435,158 -32.0 38.3 B. Public Sector C. General Govt. Private & Public (A+B) 13.8 589,993 743,325 861,598 1,087,737 1,362,340 897,771 996,372 1,375,524 11.0 38.1 2,690,829 3,128,071 3,234,032 3,557,129 4,087,129 4,447,603 4,708,323 5,116,506 5.9 8.7 725,388 820,391 850,088 929,275 1,046,432 1,160,319 1,270,317 1,482,145 9.5 16.7 70,138 74,361 105,418 97,825 69,000 67,012 71,603 55,878 6.9 -22.0 381,421 429,484 485,495 548,025 622,217 699,843 727,537 793,687 4.0 9.1 357,556 403,087 456,222 514,830 585,895 656,628 676,513 731,892 3.0 8.2 23,865 26,397 29,273 33,195 36,322 43,215 51,024 61,795 18.1 21.1 104,926 218,447 178,264 163,917 359,779 428,620 272,496 260,966 -36.4 -4.2 49,042 39,700 49,009 88,241 59,512 27,516 34,776 28,277 26.4 -18.7 16.3 SECTOR-WISE: 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing (A+B) A. Large Scale B. Small Scale (including Slaughtering) 4. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 5. Construction 6. Wholesale and Retail Trade 7. Transport & Communication 8. Finance & Insurance 73,000 74,712 77,462 86,643 95,549 108,170 115,515 134,300 6.8 436,682 538,926 507,856 564,504 651,987 591,103 728,493 707,254 23.2 -2.9 40,770 49,559 57,775 66,920 63,162 74,355 80,536 79,542 8.3 -1.2 9. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 525,816 568,524 577,278 622,467 680,241 788,716 824,083 918,920 4.5 11.5 10. Other Private Services P: Provisional R: Revised 283,646 313,967 345,387 389,312 439,250 501,948 582,967 655,537 16.1 12.4 (Contd...) F: Final 17
420. TABLE 1 .7 a GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE SECTOR BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES Sector PRIVATE SECTOR 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing (A+B) A. Large Scale B. Small Scale (including Slaughtering) 4. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P 2,483,817 2,843,159 2,995,889 3,209,360 3,649,178 3,984,517 4,393,570 4,681,348 10.3 6.5 725,292 820,265 849,943 929,152 1,046,251 1,160,176 1,270,098 1,481,789 9.5 16.7 48,205 42,658 77,365 35,296 44,754 48,889 46,476 39,261 -4.9 -15.5 375,567 427,724 483,781 519,820 613,582 698,078 718,918 761,408 3.0 5.9 351,702 401,327 454,508 486,625 577,260 654,863 667,894 699,613 2.0 4.7 23,865 26,397 29,273 33,195 36,322 43,215 51,024 61,795 18.1 21.1 20,855 55,220 23,156 17,298 99,122 53,380 43,658 14,415 -18.2 -67.0 5. Construction 29,122 30,128 43,831 82,429 52,906 26,546 30,620 23,395 15.3 -23.6 6. Wholesale and Retail Trade 73,000 74,712 77,462 86,643 95,549 108,170 115,515 134,300 6.8 16.3 7. Transport & Communication 366,473 465,937 466,875 476,971 520,954 532,133 690,140 580,850 29.7 -15.8 8. Finance & Insurance 35,841 44,024 50,811 49,971 56,569 66,481 71,095 71,473 6.9 0.5 9. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 525,816 568,524 577,278 622,467 680,241 788,716 824,083 918,920 4.5 11.5 10. Other Private Services P: Provisional R: Revised 283,646 313,967 345,387 389,312 439,250 501,948 582,967 655,537 16.1 12.4 (Contd...) F: Final 18
421. TABLE 1 .7 b GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PUBLIC AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CURRENT MARKET PRICES Sector Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P 797,005 1,028,237 1,099,741 1,435,507 1,800,291 1,360,856 1,311,125 1,810,682 -3.7 38.1 207,012 284,912 238,143 347,770 437,951 463,085 314,753 435,158 -32.0 38.3 Public Sector and General Govt. (A+B) A. Public Sector (Autonomous & Semi Auto-Bodies) 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing 96 126 145 123 181 143 219 356 53.1 62.6 21,933 31,703 28,053 62,529 24,246 18,123 25,127 16,617 38.6 -33.9 274.5 5,854 1,760 1,714 28,205 8,635 1,765 8,619 32,279 388.3 4. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 84,071 163,227 155,108 146,619 260,657 375,240 228,838 246,551 -39.0 7.7 5. Construction 19,920 9,572 5,178 5,812 6,606 970 4,156 4,882 328.3 17.5 6. Transport & Communication 70,209 72,989 40,981 87,533 131,033 58,970 38,353 126,404 -35.0 229.6 8,767 6,196 5,825 39,407 8,627 14,612 6,261 4,485 -57.2 -28.4 Post Office & PTCL 18,137 18,232 13,644 16,376 15,450 17,228 14,812 4,702 -14.0 -68.3 Others 43,305 48,561 21,512 31,750 106,956 27,130 17,280 117,217 -36.3 578.3 4,929 5,535 6,964 16,949 6,593 7,874 9,441 8,069 19.9 -14.5 589,993 743,325 861,598 1,087,737 1,362,340 897,771 996,372 1,375,524 11.0 38.1 164,736 208,953 229,128 312,699 362,287 353,735 388,098 450,561 9.7 16.1 358,791 442,650 527,461 686,665 909,116 463,854 527,970 777,116 13.8 47.2 66,466 91,722 105,009 88,373 90,937 80,182 80,304 Railways 7. Finance & Insurance B. General Govt. Federal Provincial District Governments P: Provisional R: Revised F: Final 19 147,847 0.2 84.1 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
422. TABLE 1 .8 GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE, PUBLIC, AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CONSTANT PRICES (2005-06) Sector 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 GFCF (A+B+C) 1,366,256 1,581,759 1,699,905 1,875,181 2,085,722 1,824,501 1,805,494 1,910,389 -1.0 5.8 A. Private Sector 1,062,261 1,190,708 1,278,275 1,334,422 1,427,631 1,388,633 1,436,843 1,418,203 3.5 -1.3 B. Public Sector 82,094 110,647 93,165 142,146 175,590 151,844 84,970 127,383 -44.0 49.9 C. General Govt. 221,902 280,404 328,466 398,614 482,500 284,024 283,681 364,802 -0.1 28.6 1,144,354 1,301,355 1,371,440 1,476,568 1,603,221 1,540,477 1,521,813 1,545,586 -1.2 1.6 296,850 315,526 315,864 331,977 351,942 355,206 352,602 361,190 -0.7 2.4 25,880 26,868 38,002 35,837 25,185 21,237 17,798 13,564 -16.2 -23.8 144,694 163,023 185,697 201,304 221,076 222,302 208,252 210,895 -6.3 1.3 134,480 152,057 173,925 188,665 207,507 207,735 192,613 194,105 -7.3 0.8 10,215 10,966 11,773 12,639 13,569 14,567 15,639 16,790 7.4 7.4 4. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 38,716 78,930 64,262 60,049 131,321 135,833 67,733 63,347 -50.1 -6.5 -24.2 Private & Public (A+B) SECTOR-WISE: 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing (A+B) A. Large Scale B. Small Scale (including Slaughtering) 5. Construction 24,268 18,897 23,893 41,492 26,631 11,045 13,894 10,537 25.8 6. Wholesale and Retail Trade 27,456 28,184 29,531 31,751 33,841 34,221 32,889 35,618 -3.9 8.3 7. Transport & Communication 180,484 242,486 263,083 297,844 314,271 237,353 283,924 284,518 19.6 0.2 -8.0 8. Finance & Insurance 15,334 18,695 22,025 24,524 22,370 23,523 22,930 21,095 -2.5 9. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 260,202 270,610 281,434 292,691 304,399 316,575 329,238 342,408 4.0 4.0 10. Other Private Services P: Provisional R: Revised 130,470 138,136 147,647 159,097 172,186 183,183 192,554 202,415 5.1 5.1 (Contd...) F: Final 20
423. TABLE 1 .8 a GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PRIVATE SECTOR BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CONSTANT PRICES (2005-06) Sector PRIVATE SECTOR 1. Agriculture 2. Mining and Quarrying 3. Manufacturing (A+B) Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 2020-21 P 1,062,261 1,190,708 1,278,275 1,334,422 1,427,631 1,388,633 1,436,843 1,418,203 3.5 296,800 315,461 315,789 331,915 351,852 355,139 352,509 361,059 -0.7 2.4 17,787 15,413 27,889 12,930 16,335 15,493 11,552 9,530 -25.4 -17.5 -1.3 142,493 162,359 185,044 190,968 218,017 221,744 205,798 202,334 -7.2 -1.7 132,278 151,393 173,271 178,329 204,448 207,176 190,159 185,544 -8.2 -2.4 10,215 10,966 11,773 12,639 13,569 14,567 15,639 16,790 7.4 7.4 7,695 19,952 8,348 6,337 36,180 16,916 10,852 3,499 -35.9 -67.8 5. Construction 14,411 14,341 21,368 38,759 23,675 10,655 12,233 8,717 14.8 -28.7 6. Wholesale and Retail Trade 27,456 28,184 29,531 31,751 33,841 34,221 32,889 35,618 -3.9 8.3 7. Transport & Communication 151,467 209,645 241,854 251,660 251,111 213,674 268,977 233,667 25.9 -13.1 -6.4 A. Large Scale B. Small Scale (including Slaughtering) 4. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 13,480 16,607 19,371 18,312 20,035 21,032 20,242 18,955 -3.8 9. Housing Services (Ownership of Dwellings) 8. Finance & Insurance 260,202 270,610 281,434 292,691 304,399 316,575 329,238 342,408 4.0 4.0 10. Other Private Services P: Provisional R: Revised 130,470 138,136 147,647 159,097 172,186 183,183 192,554 202,415 5.1 5.1 (Contd...) F: Final 21
424. TABLE 1 .8 b GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) IN PUBLIC AND GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORS BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT CONSTANT PRICES (2005-06) Sector 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 303,996 391,051 421,630 540,759 82,094 110,647 93,165 142,146 50 65 75 62 2. Mining and Quarrying 8,093 11,455 10,113 3. Manufacturing 2,202 664 653 31,021 58,978 9,857 4,556 2017-18 2020-21 P Rs million % Change 2019-20/ 2020-21/ 2018-19 2019-20 2018-19 F 2019-20 R 658,091 435,868 368,651 492,186 -15.4 175,590 151,844 84,970 127,383 -44.0 49.9 90 67 93 131 38.8 40.9 22,907 8,850 5,743 6,246 4,034 8.7 -35.4 10,336 3,058 558 2,454 8,561 339.5 248.9 55,915 53,712 95,141 118,916 56,881 59,848 -52.2 5.2 2,524 2,733 2,956 390 1,660 1,819 326.3 9.6 Public Sector and General Govt. (A+B) A. Public Sector (Autonomous & Semi Auto-Bodies) 1. Agriculture 4. Electricity Generation & Distribution & Gas Distribution 5. Construction 6. Transport & Communication 33.5 29,017 32,841 21,229 46,184 63,161 23,679 14,948 50,850 -36.9 240.2 Railways 3,623 2,788 3,018 20,792 4,158 5,867 2,440 1,804 -58.4 -26.1 Post Office & PTCL 7,496 8,203 7,068 8,640 7,447 6,918 5,773 1,892 -16.6 -67.2 17,898 21,850 11,144 16,752 51,555 10,894 6,735 47,155 -38.2 600.2 1,854 2,088 2,655 6,211 2,335 2,491 2,688 2,140 7.9 -20.4 221,902 280,404 328,466 398,614 482,500 284,024 283,681 364,802 -0.1 28.6 61,959 78,823 87,350 114,592 128,311 111,910 110,497 119,493 -1.3 8.1 134,945 166,981 201,083 251,636 321,982 146,747 150,320 206,099 2.4 37.1 24,998 34,600 40,032 32,385 32,207 25,367 22,864 Others 7. Finance & Insurance B. General Govt. Federal Provincial District Governments P: Provisional R: Revised F: Final 22 39,210 -9.9 71.5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
425. TABLE 2 .1 A INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Fiscal Year 2000-01 All major crops 93.0 1999-2000 Base Food Fibre crops crops 91.2 95.0 Other crops 94.0 Food crops Wheat Maize - 2005-06 Base Cash crop Rice Sugarcane - Fibre crop Cotton - 2001-02 97.0 85.2 94.4 103.6 - - - - - 2002-03 104.0 91.8 90.8 112.1 - - - - - 2003-04 107.0 94.9 89.4 115.1 - - - - - 2004-05 104.0 106.4 126.9 101.9 - - - - - 2005-06 101.0 107.0 116.0 95.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2006-07 117.0 115.0 114.0 118.0 109.5 99.3 98.0 122.6 98.7 2007-08 126.0 108.0 104.0 138.0 98.5 115.9 100.3 143.1 89.5 2008-09 114.0 124.0 105.0 108.0 113.0 115.5 125.3 112.0 90.8 2009-10 111.0 119.0 115.0 106.0 109.6 104.9 124.1 110.5 99.2 2010-11 119.0 120.0 102.0 119.0 118.5 119.2 87.0 123.8 88.0 2011-12 123.0 120.0 121.0 125.0 110.3 139.5 111.1 130.7 104.4 2012-13 - - - - 113.8 135.7 99.8 142.7 100.1 2013-14 - - - - 122.1 159.0 122.6 151.0 98.1 2014-15 - - - - 117.9 158.7 126.2 140.7 107.2 2015-16 - - - - 120.5 169.5 122.6 146.6 76.2 2016-17 - - - - 125.4 197.2 123.5 169.0 82.0 2017-18 - - - - 117.9 189.8 134.3 186.6 91.8 2018-19 - - - - 114.4 219.5 129.8 150.4 75.7 2019-20 - - - - 118.7 253.5 133.7 148.6 70.3 2020-21 P - - - - 128.3 272.2 151.8 181.4 54.3 P: Provisional -: Not available Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 25
426. TABLE 2 .1 B BASIC DATA ON AGRICULTURE Fiscal Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 P Cropped Area (million hectares) 22.04 22.12 21.85 22.94 22.78 23.13 23.56 23.85 24.12 23.87 22.72 22.50 22.56 23.16 23.26 24.04 23.01 23.45 23.45 23.45 P - Improved Seed distribution (000 Tonnes) 193.80 191.57 172.02 178.77 218.12 226.07 218.60 264.67 314.63 312.63 331.02 346.38 327.08 359.18 481.30 431.79 554.95 604.58 554.13 550.77 847.41 Water ^ Availability (MAF) 134.77 134.63 134.48 134.78 135.68 137.98 137.80 137.80 131.51 133.70 137.16 135.86 137.51 137.51 138.59 133.00 132.70 133.40 127.40 130.00 131.50 Fertilizer Offtake (000 N/T) 2,964.00 2,929.00 3,020.00 3,222.00 3,694.04 3,804.00 3,672.00 3,581.00 3,711.00 4,360.00 3,933.00 3,861.00 3,621.00 4,089.00 4,316.00 3,699.00 5,040.00 4,763.00 4,614.00 4,549.00 3,925.00 Credit disbursed (Rs million) 44,790 52,314 58,915 73,446 108,733 137,474 168,830 211,561 233,010 248,120 263,022 293,850 336,247 391,353 515,875 598,287 704,488 972,606 1,173,990 1,214,684 953,699 Tubewells Public & Private (Number in 000) 659.3 707.3 769.0 950.1 984.3 999.6 1,025.8 1,016.1 1,070.0 1,088.0 1,103.4 997.7 1,220.4 1,317.3 1,332.9 1,357.0 1,357.0 1,357.0 1,131.6 1,179.9 (Contd.) TABLE 2.1 B (Continued) BASIC DATA ON AGRICULTURE Fiscal Year Production of Production Tractors of meat (Nos) (000 Tonnes) 32,553 2,015 24,311 2,072 27,101 2,132 36,059 2,188 44,095 2,271 49,642 2,515 54,431 2,618 53,598 2,728 60,561 2,843 71,607 2,965 71,550 3,094 48,120 3,232 48,871 3,379 34,521 3,531 45,860 3,696 33,883 3,873 53,499 4,061 52,551 4,262 37,457 4,478 32,451 4,708 36,653 4,955 - : Not available Milk (000 Tonnes) Fish Total Production Forest Production (000 Tonnes) (000 cu.mtr.) 2000-01 26,284 629.6 472 2001-02 27,031 637.8 487 2002-03 27,811 566.2 266 2003-04 28,624 573.5 313 2004-05 29,438 580.6 282 2005-06 31,970 604.9 265 2006-07 32,986 640.0 373 2007-08 34,064 885.0 363 2008-09 35,160 914.1 347 2009-10 36,299 925.8 356 2010-11 37,475 699.9 352 2011-12 38,617 724.8 354 2012-13 39,855 728.8 354 2013-14 41,133 735.0 2014-15 42,454 765.0 2015-16 43,818 788.0 2016-17 45,227 797.0 2017-18 46,682 807.0 2018-19 48,185 799.0 2019-20 49,737 804.0 2020-21 P 51,340 690.0 P : Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics ^: At farm gate Ministry of National Food Security and Research *: Wheat seed testing is in progress and is very slow due to Corona pandemic.The expected yield of wheat seed is 48345 MT @: Figures provided by Provincial Agricurltre Department / Agencies (Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and ICT) 26 @ @
427. TABLE 2 .2 LAND UTILIZATION Fiscal Year Total Reported Forest Not Avail- Culturable Area Area Area able for Waste Cultivation 5 Cultivated Area Current Net Area Total Area Fallow Sown Cultivated (6+7) 6 7 8 6.73 15.40 22.13 Million Hectares Area Sown Total more than Cropped once Area (7+9) 9 10 6.64 22.04 2000-01 1 79.61 2 59.44 3 3.77 4 24.37 2001-02 79.61 59.33 3.80 24.31 8.95 6.60 15.67 22.27 6.45 22.12 2002-03 79.61 59.45 4.04 24.25 8.95 6.61 15.60 22.21 6.25 21.85 2003-04 79.61 59.46 4.01 24.23 9.10 6.23 15.89 22.12 7.05 22.94 2004-05 79.61 59.48 4.02 24.39 8.94 6.86 15.27 22.13 7.51 22.78 2005-06 79.61 57.22 4.03 22.87 8.21 6.72 15.39 22.11 7.74 23.13 2006-07 79.61 57.05 4.19 22.70 8.30 5.72 16.16 21.87 7.40 23.56 2007-08 79.61 57.08 4.21 23.41 8.19 4.93 16.34 21.17 7.51 23.85 2008-09 79.61 57.21 4.21 23.47 8.15 5.04 16.34 21.38 7.78 24.12 2009-10 79.61 57.21 4.23 23.49 8.09 5.20 16.20 21.40 7.67 23.87 2010-11 79.61 57.64 4.26 23.37 7.98 6.38 15.65 22.03 7.07 22.72 2011-12 79.61 57.73 4.26 23.25 8.19 7.05 14.98 22.03 7.52 22.50 2012-13 79.61 57.78 4.26 23.06 8.21 7.04 15.22 22.26 7.34 22.56 2013-14 79.61 57.99 4.55 25.56 8.27 6.68 15.40 22.06 7.76 23.16 2014-15 79.61 57.99 4.54 25.54 8.30 6.66 15.46 23.24 7.82 23.26 2015-16 79.61 58.11 3.99 25.56 8.27 10.14 15.62 22.74 7.90 24.04 9.17 2016-17 79.61 58.00 4.47 25.54 8.37 9.51 15.59 22.11 7.46 23.01 2017-18 79.61 58.02 4.47 25.60 8.29 9.40 15.74 22.15 7.75 23.45 2018-19 P 79.61 58.02 4.47 25.60 8.29 9.40 15.74 22.15 7.75 23.45 2019-20 P 79.61 58.02 4.47 25.60 8.29 9.40 15.74 22.15 7.75 23.45 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Ministry of National Food Security and Research Note: 1. Total Area Reported is the total physical area of the villages/deh, tehsils or districts etc. 3. Forest Area is the area of any land classed or administered as forest under any legal enactment dealing with forests. Any cultivated area which may exist within such forest is shown under heading "cultivated area". 4. Area Not Available for Cultivation is that uncultivated area of the farm which is under farm home-steads, farm roads and other connected purposes and not available for cultivation. 5. Culturable Waste is that uncultivated farm area which is fit for cultivation but was not cropped during the year under reference nor in the year before that. 6. Current Fallow (ploughed but uncropped) is that area which is vacant during the year under reference but was sown at least once during the previous year. Cultivated Area is that area which was sown at least during the year under reference or during the previous year. Cultivated Area = Net Area sown + Current Fallow. 7. Net Area Sown is that area which is sown at least once during (Kharif & Rabi) the year under reference. 8. Area Sown more than once is the difference between the total cropped area and the net area sown. 9. Total Cropped Area means the aggregate area of crops raised in a farm during the year under reference including the area under fruit trees. 27
428. TABLE 2 .3 AREA UNDER IMPORTANT CROPS Fiscal Year Wheat Rice Bajra Jowar Maize Barley 2000-01 8,181 2,377 390 354 944 Gram 113 2001-02 8,058 2,114 417 358 2002-03 8,034 2,225 349 338 942 111 12,000 934 1,000 269 935 108 11,989 963 1,100 256 2003-04 8,216 2,461 539 2004-05 8,358 2,520 343 392 947 102 12,657 982 1,074 308 982 93 12,603 1,094 966 2005-06 8,448 2,621 2006-07 8,578 2,581 441 254 1,042 90 12,896 1,029 504 292 1,017 94 13,066 1,052 2007-08 8,550 2,515 531 281 1,052 91 13,020 1,107 1,241 2008-09 2009-10 9,046 2,963 470 263 1,052 86 13,880 1,081 1,029 233 91 2,820 50 9,132 2,883 476 248 935 84 13,758 1,067 943 178 80 3,106 56 2010-11 8,901 2,365 548 229 974 77 13,094 1,054 988 212 78 2,689 51 2011-12 8,650 2,571 458 214 1,087 72 13,052 1,008 1,058 201 76 2,835 46 2012-13 8,660 2,309 461 198 1,060 73 12,761 992 1,129 224 71 2,879 50 2013-14 9,199 2,789 475 198 1,168 71 13,900 950 1,173 220 82 2,806 49 2014-15 9,204 2,891 462 195 1,142 68 13,962 943 1,141 214 83 2,961 54 2015-16 9,224 2,739 486 274 1,191 66 13,980 940 1,131 201 79 2,902 53 2016-17 8,972 2,724 469 256 1,348 61 13,830 971 1,218 190 80 2,489 47 2017-18 8,797 2,901 489 255 1,251 58 13,751 977 1,342 199 83 2,700 46 2018-19 8,678 2,810 456 241 1,374 57 13,616 943 1,102 237 83 2,373 45 2019-20 8,805 3,034 522 199 1,404 49 14,013 944 1,040 353 139 2,517 51 2020-21 P 9,178 3,335 P: Provisional Note: 1 ha = 2.47 acres 350 126 1,418 41 14,448 873 1,165 28 905 Sugar- Rapeseed Sesacane and mum Mustard 961 273 101 000 Hectares Cotton Tobacco Total Food Grains 12,359 2,927 46 136 3,116 49 88 2,794 47 259 60 2,989 46 243 66 3,193 50 907 217 82 3,103 56 1,029 256 71 3,075 51 224 76 3,054 51 222 170 2,079 51 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
429. TABLE 2 .4 PRODUCTION OF IMPORTANT CROPS 000 Tonnes Cotton TobBajra Jowar Maize Barley Total Gram Sugar- Rapeseed SesaFood cane and mum (000 tonnes) (000 Bales) acco Grains Mustard Fiscal Year Wheat Rice 2000-01 19,024 4,803 199 218 1,643 99 25,987 397 43,606 230 50.7 1,826 10,732 85 2001-02 18,226 3,882 216 222 1,664 100 24,311 362 48,042 221 69.6 1,805 10,613 94 2002-03 19,183 4,478 189 203 1,737 100 25,889 675 52,056 215 19.3 1,737 10,211 88 2003-04 19,500 4,848 274 238 1,897 98 26,855 611 53,419 221 25.0 1,709 10,048 86 2004-05 21,612 5,025 193 186 2,797 92 29,905 868 47,244 203 30.0 2,426 14,265 101 2005-06 21,277 5,547 221 153 3,110 88 30,396 480 44,666 172 35.0 2,215 13,019 113 2006-07 23,295 5,438 238 180 3,088 93 32,337 838 54,742 212 30.0 2,187 12,856 103 2007-08 20,959 5,563 305 170 3,605 87 31,198 475 63,920 176 32.8 1,982 11,655 108 2008-09 24,033 6,952 296 165 3,593 82 35,121 741 50,045 188 41.0 2,010 11,819 105 2009-10 23,311 6,883 293 154 3,261 71 33,973 562 49,373 151 33.4 2,196 12,914 119 2010-11 25,214 4,823 346 141 3,707 71 34,302 496 55,309 188 31.0 1,949 11,460 103 2011-12 23,473 6,160 304 137 4,338 66 34,478 284 58,397 164 30.2 2,310 13,595 98 2012-13 24,211 5,536 311 123 4,220 67 34,468 751 63,750 205 29.2 2,214 13,031 108 2013-14 25,979 6,798 301 119 4,944 67 38,208 399 67,460 203 32.4 2,170 12,769 130 2014-15 25,086 7,003 294 115 4,937 63 37,498 379 62,826 196 33.1 2,372 13,960 120 2015-16 25,633 6,801 300 161 5,271 61 38,227 286 65,482 185 31.8 1,688 9,917 116 2016-17 26,674 6,849 305 148 6,134 58 40,168 330 75,482 181 34.1 1,815 10,671 100 2017-18 25,076 7,450 339 153 5,902 55 38,975 323 83,333 225 35.2 2,032 11,946 107 2018-19 24,349 7,202 350 149 6,826 55 38,931 447 67,174 302 35.7 1,677 9,861 104 2019-20 25,248 7,414 384 120 7,883 47 41,096 498 66,380 488 64.4 1,556 9,148 133 2020-21 P 27,293 8,419 266 96 8,465 47 44,586 261 81,009 488 102.2 1,202 7,064 133 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 29
430. TABLE 2 .5 YIELD PER HECTARE OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL CROPS Kg/Hectare Fiscal Year Wheat Rice Sugarcane Maize Gram 2000-01 2,325 2,021 45,376 1,741 439 624 2001-02 2,262 1,836 48,042 1,766 388 579 2002-03 2,388 2,013 47,324 1,858 701 622 2003-04 2,375 1,970 49,738 2,003 622 572 2004-05 2,568 1,995 48,906 2,848 793 760 2005-06 2,519 2,116 49,246 2,985 467 714 2006-07 2,716 2,107 53,199 3,036 797 711 2007-08 2,451 2,212 51,507 3,427 429 649 2008-09 2,657 2,346 48,634 3,415 685 713 2009-10 2,553 2,387 52,357 3,487 527 707 2010-11 2,833 2,039 55,981 3,806 471 725 2011-12 2,714 2,396 55,196 3,991 282 815 2012-13 2,796 2,398 56,466 3,981 757 769 2013-14 2,824 2,437 57,511 4,233 420 774 2014-15 2,726 2,422 55,062 4,323 402 802 2015-16 2,779 2,483 57,897 4,426 304 582 2016-17 2,973 2,514 61,972 4,550 340 729 2017-18 2,851 2,568 62,096 4,718 331 753 2018-19 2,806 2,563 60,956 4,968 474 707 2019-20 2,867 2,444 63,827 5,615 528 618 2020-21 P 2,974 2,524 69,536 5,970 299 578 P: Provisional Cotton Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 30
431. TABLE 2 .6 PRODUCTION AND EXPORT OF FRUIT Fiscal Year Citrus Mango Production of Important Fruit (000 tonnes) Apple Banana Apricot Almonds Grapes Guava Export (000 Value tonnes) (Mln. Rs) 260 4,575 2000-01 1,898 990 439 139 126 33 51 526 2001-02 1,830 1,037 367 150 125 26 53 539 290 5,084 2002-03 1,702 1,035 315 143 130 24 52 532 263 4,815 2003-04 1,760 1,056 334 175 211 24 51 550 354 5,913 2004-05 1,944 1,671 352 148 205 23 49 571 281 5,408 2005-06 2,458 1,754 351 164 197 23 49 552 455 7,508 2006-07 1,472 1,719 348 151 177 23 47 555 343 6,894 2007-08 2,294 1,754 442 158 240 27 75 539 411 9,085 2008-09 2,132 1,728 441 157 238 26 76 512 469 12,519 2009-10 2,150 1,846 366 155 194 22 65 509 687 20,094 2010-11 1,982 1,889 526 139 190 22 64 547 669 25,017 2011-12 2,147 1,700 599 97 189 21 64 495 737 32,068 2012-13 2,002 1,680 556 116 179 22 64 500 718 38,085 2013-14 2,168 1,659 606 119 178 22 66 496 784 45,196 2014-15 2,395 1,717 617 118 171 22 66 488 682 44,375 2015-16 2,344 1,636 620 135 173 22 66 523 677 44,607 2016-17 2,180 1,784 670 137 166 21 66 548 646 39,878 2017-18 2,351 1,734 565 135 142 21 67 586 697 43,842 2018-19 2,469 1,723 544 136 108 20 68 548 756 56,272 2019-20 2,358 1,639 604 151 94 20 82 706 798 67,769 2020-21 P 2,358 1,639 604 151 94 20 82 706 829 61,037 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics `` 31
432. TABLE 2 .7 CROP WISE COMPOSITION OF OUTPUT OF IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL CROPS (AT CONSTANT BASIC PRICES BASE 2005-06) Fiscal Year/ Crops Important Crops 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 % Share 2020-21 P 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Food Crops 58.94 58.79 61.21 59.94 65.26 64.22 61.14 65.88 68.27 71.22 Wheat 38.92 40.21 40.29 38.63 42.24 40.95 37.69 39.22 39.75 41.01 Maize Rice Cash Crop Sugarcane Fibre Crop Cotton 8.32 8.09 8.88 8.83 10.08 10.98 10.33 12.86 14.52 14.89 11.69 10.49 12.04 12.49 12.94 12.29 13.12 13.80 14.00 15.32 15.01 11.83 13.15 13.09 12.11 13.51 14.48 15.56 13.47 13.03 11.83 13.15 13.09 12.11 13.51 14.48 15.56 13.47 13.03 15.01 29.23 28.06 25.70 27.95 21.22 21.29 23.30 20.65 18.69 13.76 29.23 28.06 25.70 27.95 21.22 21.29 23.30 20.65 18.69 13.76 P: Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 32
433. TABLE 2 .8 CREDIT DISBURSED BY AGENCIES Fiscal Year 2000-01 ZTBL DPBs PPCBL 27,610 - 5,124 - - MFIs/RSPs ** - 2001-02 29,108 593 5,128 17,486 - - - 52,314 2002-03 29,270 1,421 5,485 22,739 - - - 58,915 2003-04 29,933 2,702 7,564 33,247 - - - 73,446 2004-05 37,409 12,407 7,607 51,310 - - - 108,733 2005-06 47,594 16,023 5,889 67,967 - - - 137,474 2006-07 56,473 23,976 7,988 80,393 - - - 168,830 2007-08 66,939 43,941 5,931 94,749 - - - 211,561 2008-09 75,139 41,626 5,579 110,666 - - - 233,010 2009-10 79,012 43,777 5,722 119,609 - - - 248,120 2010-11 65,361 50,187 7,162 140,312 - - - 263,022 2011-12 66,068 60,876 8,520 146,271 12,115 - - 293,850 2012-13 67,068 69,271 8,304 172,833 18,770 - - 336,247 2013-14 77,920 84,813 8,809 195,488 22,796 1,527 - 391,353 2014-15 95,827 108,708 10,486 262,912 32,951 4,991 - 515,875 2015-16 90,977 123,097 10,335 311,401 53,938 8,540 - 598,287 2016-17 92,451 139,061 10,880 342,068 87,772 12,326 19,930 704,488 2017-18 83,187 184,863 10,724 523,930 124,756 16,392 28,754 972,606 2018-19 71,478 211,942 9,677 653,531 153,998 39,379 33,984 1,173,990 2019-20 62,286 224,970 8,825 708,245 139,298 42,143 28,917 1,214,684 554,240 92,818 2020-21 P 56,478 192,471 5,179 P: Provisional (Jul-Mar) - : Not available ZTBL: Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited DPBs: 14 Domestic Private Banks PPCBL: Punjab Provincial Corporative Bank Limited Commercial Banks: Include ABL, HBL, MCB, NBP & UBL MFBs: 11 Microfinance Banks *: 5 Islamic Banks **: 13 Microfinance Institutions / Rural Support Programmes 33 MFBs Islamic Banks* Rs Million Total Commercial Banks 12,056 44,790 35,890 16,624 953,699 Source: State Bank of Pakistan
434. TABLE 2 .9 FERTILIZER OFFTAKE AND IMPORTS OF FERTILIZERS & PESTICIDES Fiscal Year Nitrogen Fertilizer Offtake (000 N/Tonnes) Phosphorus Potash Total Import of Fertilizers 000 N/Tonnes 580 Import of Insecticides Quantity Value (Tonnes) (Mln Rs.) 21,255 3,477 2000-01 2,264 677 23 2,966 2001-02 2,285 625 19 2,929 626 31,783 5,320 2002-03 2,349 650 20 3,020 766 22,242 3,441 2003-04 2,527 674 22 3,222 764 41,406 7,157 2004-05 2,796 864 33 3,694 784 41,561 8,281 2005-06 2,926 851 27 3,804 1,268 33,954 6,804 2006-07 2,650 979 43 3,672 796 29,089 5,848 2007-08 2,925 630 27 3,582 876 27,814 6,330 2008-09 3,034 651 25 3,710 568 28,839 8,981 2009-10 3,476 860 24 4,360 1,444 38,227 13,473 2010-11 3,134 767 32 3,933 645 36,183 13,178 2011-12 3,207 633 21 3,861 1,177 32,152 12,255 2012-13 2,853 747 21 3,621 735 17,882 8,507 2013-14 3,185 881 24 4,089 1,148 23,546 12,572 2014-15 3,309 975 33 4,316 984 23,157 14,058 2015-16 2,672 1,007 20 3,699 901 17,386 15,974 2016-17 3,730 1,269 41 5,040 961 18,088 16,680 2017-18 3,435 1,279 50 4,763 1,191 26,480 19,162 2018-19 3,408 1,153 53 4,614 1,093 29,117 25,909 2019-20 3,415 1,084 50 4,549 890 32,089 29,572 2020-21 P 2,835 1,035 55 3,925 610 27,381 21,018 P: Provisional (Jul-Mar) Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics National Fertilizer Development Centre 34
435. TABLE 2 .10 AVERAGE RETAIL SALE PRICES OF FERTILIZERS Rs per bag of 50 Kgs Fiscal Year Urea AN/CAN AS NP SSP(G) DAP SOP 2000-01 363.0 233.0 300.0 468.0 253.0 670.0 682.0 2001-02 394.0 268.0 308.0 519.0 280.0 710.0 765.0 2002-03 411.0 282.0 344.0 539.0 287.0 765.0 780.0 2003-04 420.0 208.0 373.0 622.0 329.0 913.0 809.0 2004-05 468.0 353.0 405.0 704.0 373.0 1,001.0 996.0 2005-06 509.0 395.0 744.0 710.0 407.0 1,079.0 1,170.0 2006-07 527.0 396.0 779.0 670.0 334.0 993.0 985.0 2007-08 581.0 471.0 867.0 1,267.0 572.0 1,934.0 1,497.0 2008-09 751.0 704.0 1,330.0 1,700.0 874.0 2,578.0 2,091.0 2009-10 799.0 701.0 1,223.0 1,452.0 726.0 2,267.0 2,370.0 2010-11 1,035.0 843.0 1,124.0 2,108.0 896.0 3,236.0 2,807.0 2011-12 1,719.0 1,392.0 - 2,691.0 1,260.0 4,054.0 3,797.0 2012-13 1,799.0 1,443.0 - 2,524.0 1,172.0 3,902.0 3,945.0 2013-14 1,827.0 1,566.0 - 2,513.0 1,050.0 3,640.0 4,233.0 2014-15 1,883.0 1,606.0 - 2,584.0 1,012.0 3,677.0 4,904.0 2015-16 1,860.0 1,564.0 - 2,339.0 973.0 3,343.0 5,131.0 2016-17 1,378.0 1,198.0 - 1,869.0 886.0 2,596.0 4,100.0 2017-18 1,386.0 1,241.0 - 2,175.0 890.0 2,882.0 3,659.0 2018-19 1,745.0 1,571.0 - 2,829.0 1,002.0 3,518.0 3,945.0 2019-20 1,850.0 1,700.0 - 2,695.0 1,068.0 3,558.0 4,299.0 2020-21 P 1,686.0 1,543.0 - 2,921.0 1,190.0 4,053.0 4,334.0 P: Provisional (Jul-Mar) -: Not available AN/CAN: Ammonium Nitrate/Calcium Ammonium Nitrate AS: Ammonium Sulphate DAP: Diammonium Phosphate NP: Nitrophosphate SOP: Sulphate of Potash SSP: Single Super Phosphate 35 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics National Fertilizer Development Centre
436. TABLE 2 .11 AREA IRRIGATED BY DIFFERENT SOURCES Fiscal Year Canals Wells 2000-01 6.98 0.16 Canal Wells 0.10 Tubewells 3.19 Canal Tubewells 7.22 2001-02 6.81 0.20 0.16 3.45 2002-03 7.06 0.21 0.17 3.42 2003-04 7.22 0.22 0.15 2004-05 7.00 0.25 0.19 2005-06 7.06 0.28 2006-07 6.78 0.67 2007-08 6.52 2008-09 6.42 2009-10 Others Million hectares Total 0.17 17.82 7.24 0.18 18.04 7.17 0.20 18.22 3.49 7.47 0.21 18.76 3.46 7.70 0.24 18.84 0.20 3.58 7.78 0.22 19.12 0.22 3.89 7.78 0.25 19.59 0.31 0.17 3.83 7.79 0.28 19.29 0.31 0.20 3.82 7.94 0.24 19.39 6.39 0.31 0.26 3.88 7.07 0.28 20.06 2010-11 6.00 0.36 0.25 3.92 7.60 0.72 19.16 2011-12 5.59 0.35 0.19 4.03 7.86 0.72 18.99 2012-13 5.22 0.30 0.19 3.81 7.86 0.19 18.68 2013-14 5.55 0.38 0.27 3.71 8.15 0.17 19.28 2014-15 5.55 0.38 0.27 3.71 8.15 0.17 19.28 2015-16 5.59 0.35 0.30 4.48 8.19 0.26 19.33 2016-17 5.56 0.10 0.30 3.57 7.89 0.21 18.91 2017-18 5.66 0.43 0.28 3.57 8.19 0.21 19.32 2018-19 P 5.66 0.43 0.28 3.57 8.19 0.21 19.32 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Ministry of National Food Security & Research 36
437. TABLE 2 .12 PROCUREMENT/SUPPORT PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Fiscal Wheat Year Rice Paddy Irri-6 (F.A.Q) - Basmati 385 385.0 Basmati Super 2000 460.0 2000-01 300.0 Basmati 385 - 2001-02 300.0 - - 385.0 460.0 205.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 780.0 ^ 2002-03 300.0 - - 385.0 460.0 205.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 800.0 ^ 2003-04 350.0 - - 400.0 485.0 215.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 850.0 ^ 2004-05 400.0 - - 415.0 510.0 230.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 43.0 925.0 ^ 2005-06 415.0 - - 460.0 560.0 300.0 48.0 45.0 60.0 - 975.0 ^ 2006-07 425.0 - - - - 306.0 65.0 60.0 67.0 - 1025.0 2007-08 625.0 - - - - - 65.0 60.0 63.0 - 1025.0 2008-09 950.0 2,500.0 1,400.0 1,250.0 1,500.0 * 700.0 80.0 80.0 81.0 - 1465.0 2009-10 950.0 - - 1,000.0 1,250.0 * 600.0 100.0 100.0 102.0 - - 2010-11 950.0 - - - - 125.0 125.0 125.0 - - - Irri-6 Rs per 40 Kg Seed Sugarcane (at factory gate)** Cotton (Phutti) Khyber Punjab Sindh Baloch- B-557 Pakhtunkhwa istan 149-F 35.0 35.0 36.0 36.0 725.0 @ 205.0 2011-12 1,050.0 - - - - - 150.0 150.0 154.0 - - 2012-13 1,200.0 - - - - - 170.0 170.0 172.0 - - 2013-14 1,200.0 - - - - - 170.0 170.0 172.0 - - 2014-15 1,300.0 - - - - - 180.0 180.0 182.0 - 3000.0 3000.0 ^ 2015-16 1,300.0 - - - - - 180.0 180.0 172.0 - 2016-17 1,300.0 - - - - - 180.0 180.0 182.0 - - 2017-18 1,300.0 - - - - - 180.0 180.0 182.0 - - 2018-19 1,300.0 - - - - - 180.0 180.0 182.0 - - 2019-20 1,400.0 - - - - - 190.0 190.0 192.0 - - 2020-21 1,800.0 # 200.0 F.A.Q : Fair Average Quality - : Not available *: Price of Basmati Super (Paddy) Rs. 1500/40kg for 2008-09 and Rs. 1250 for 2009-10 ** : Sugarcane prices are fixed by the respective Provincial Governments #: For Punjab; however the Government of Sindh has announced Support Price of Rs. 2000 per 40 kgs @: Niab-78, CIM ^: As recommended by API 200.0 202.0 - (Contd.) 37
438. TABLE 2 .13 PROCUREMENT, RELEASES AND STOCKS OF WHEAT 000 tonnes Fiscal Year Wheat (May-April) Releases Procurement Stocks As on 1st May 2000-01 8,582.0 5,537.0 3,552.0 2001-02 4,081.0 3,376.0 3,683.0 2002-03 4,045.0 5,130.0 992.0 2003-04 3,514.0 4,104.0 161.0 2004-05 3,939.0 4,500.0 350.0 2005-06 4,514.0 2,088.4 2,107.4 2006-07 4,422.0 5,985.4 499.1 2007-08 3,918.0 6,397.9 136.9 2008-09 9,200.0 5,784.4 821.9 2009-10 6,715.0 5,985.0 4,223.0 2010-11 6,150.0 6,404.0 3,186.0 2011-12 5,792.0 5,820.0 3,506.0 2012-13 7,910.0 6,363.0 1,681.0 2013-14 5,948.0 6,149.0 7,566.0 2014-15 6,139.0 3,380.0 6,447.0 2015-16 5,806.0 4,468.1 2016-17 6,516.0 - 4,531.0 2017-18 5,942.0 - 9,858.0 2018-19 4,034.0 - 3,777.0 2019-20 6,596.0 2020-21 P 3,732.0 * 6,284.0 1,846.3 7,264.8 ** P: Provisional - : Not available *: As on 01-05-2021 **: As on 24-02-2021 602.2 4,232.1 * Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research 38
439. TABLE 2 .14 LIVESTOCK POPULATION Million Numbers Fiscal Year Buffalo Cattle 2000-01 23.3 22.4 2001-02 24.0 22.8 2002-03 24.8 2003-04 25.5 Goat Sheep Poultry Camels Asses Horses Mules 49.1 24.2 50.9 24.4 292.4 0.8 3.9 0.3 0.2 330.0 0.8 3.9 0.3 0.2 23.3 52.8 23.8 54.7 24.6 346.1 0.8 4.1 0.3 0.2 24.7 352.6 0.7 4.1 0.3 0.2 2004-05 26.3 24.2 56.7 24.9 372.0 0.7 4.2 0.3 0.3 2005-06* 27.3 29.6 53.8 26.5 433.8 0.9 4.3 0.3 0.2 2006-07 28.2 30.7 55.2 26.8 477.0 0.9 4.3 0.3 0.2 2007-08 29.0 31.8 56.7 27.1 518.0 1.0 4.4 0.3 0.2 2008-09 29.9 33.0 58.3 27.4 562.0 1.0 4.5 0.4 0.2 2009-10 30.8 34.3 59.9 27.8 610.0 1.0 4.6 0.4 0.2 2010-11 31.7 35.6 61.5 28.1 663.0 1.0 4.7 0.4 0.2 2011-12 32.7 36.9 63.1 28.4 721.0 1.0 4.8 0.4 0.2 2012-13 33.7 38.3 64.9 28.8 785.0 1.0 4.9 0.4 0.2 2013-14 34.6 39.7 66.6 29.1 855.0 1.0 4.9 0.4 0.2 2014-15 35.6 41.2 68.4 29.4 932.0 1.0 5.0 0.4 0.2 2015-16 36.6 42.8 70.3 29.8 1016.0 1.0 5.1 0.4 0.2 2016-17 37.7 44.4 72.2 30.1 1108.0 1.1 5.2 0.4 0.2 2017-18 38.8 46.1 74.1 30.5 1210.0 1.1 5.3 0.4 0.2 2018-19 40.0 47.8 76.1 30.9 1321.0 1.1 5.4 0.4 0.2 2019-20 41.2 49.6 78.2 31.2 1443.0 1.1 5.5 0.4 0.2 2020-21 P 42.4 51.5 80.3 31.6 1578.0 1.1 5.6 0.4 0.2 P: Provisional Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research *: Actual figures of Livestock Census 2006 Note: Estimated figures based on inter census growth rate of Livestock Census 1996 & 2006 39
440. TABLE 2 .15 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS Fiscal Year 2000-01 Milk* Beef 26,284 Mutton Poultry Meat 1,010 666 339 2001-02 27,031 1,034 683 2002-03 27,811 1,060 702 2003-04 28,624 1,087 2004-05 29,438 1,115 2005-06** 31,970 2006-07 32,996 2007-08 2008-09 Wool Hair Bones Fats Blood Eggs 000 Tonnes Hides Skins (Mln.Nos.)(Mln.Nos.)(Mln.Nos.) 39.2 18.6 331.4 123.5 41.8 7,505 7.8 38.2 355 39.4 19.3 339.4 126.5 42.9 7,679 7.9 39.2 370 39.7 19.9 347.6 129.7 44.0 7,860 8.2 40.3 720 378 39.9 20.7 356.2 132.9 45.2 8,102 8.4 42.4 739 384 40.0 20.7 365.1 136.3 45.2 8,529 8.6 42.6 1,449 554 512 40.1 20.3 633.5 203.3 51.4 9,712 11.4 43.3 1,498 566 554 40.6 20.8 652.5 209.2 52.7 10,197 11.8 44.3 34,064 1,549 578 601 41.0 21.4 672.2 215.3 54.1 10,711 12.2 45.3 35,160 1,601 590 652 41.5 22.0 692.4 221.6 55.4 11,258 12.6 46.3 2009-10 36,299 1,655 603 707 42.0 22.6 713.4 228.1 56.8 11,839 13.0 47.4 2010-11 37,475 1,711 616 767 42.5 23.2 735.1 234.8 58.3 12,857 13.5 48.5 2011-12 38,617 1,769 629 834 43.0 23.8 757.5 241.7 59.8 13,114 13.9 49.6 2012-13 39,855 1,829 643 907 43.6 24.4 780.5 248.8 61.3 13,813 14.4 50.7 2013-14 41,133 1,887 657 987 44.1 25.1 802.9 255.8 62.8 14,556 14.9 51.9 2014-15 42,454 1,951 671 1074 44.6 25.8 827.2 263.3 64.4 15,346 15.4 53.1 2015-16 43,818 2,017 686 1170 45.1 26.5 852.3 271.0 66.1 16,188 15.9 54.3 2016-17 45,227 2,085 701 1276 45.7 27.2 878.2 279.0 67.8 17,083 16.4 55.5 2017-18 46,682 2,155 717 1391 46.2 27.9 904.9 287.3 69.5 18,037 17.0 56.8 2018-19 48,185 2,227 732 1518 46.8 28.6 932.5 295.8 71.3 19,052 17.5 58.1 2019-20 49,737 2,303 748 1657 47.3 29.4 961.0 304.5 73.1 20,133 18.1 59.5 2020-21 P 51,340 2,380 765 1809 47.9 30.2 990.3 313.6 75.0 21,285 18.8 60.8 P: Provisional Source: Ministry of National Food Security & Research *: Human Consumption **: Actual figures of Livestock Census 2006 From 2006-07 onward figures estimates are based on Inter census growth rate of Livestock Note: Census 1996 & 2006 40
441. TABLE 3 .1 RESERVES AND EXTRACTION OF PRINCIPAL MINERALS Minerals in 000 tonnes Antimony (tonnes) Argonite/ China Chromite Coal (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Marble Clay (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Dolomite (tonnes) Fire Clay (000 tonnes) Fullers Gypsum Lime Earth Anhydrite Stone (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Years 2000-01 95 620 47 22 3,285 352,689 164 13 364 2001-02 37 685 54 24 3,512 312,886 171 16 402 10,870 10,820 2002-03 - 1,066 40 31 3,609 340,864 117 15 424 11,880 2003-04 - 994 25 29 3,325 297,419 193 14 467 13,150 2004-05 5 1,280 38 56 3,367 199,653 254 17 552 14,857 2005-06 91 1,836 53 65 3,881 183,952 333 16 601 18,428 2006-07 119 1,980 31 104 3,702 342,463 347 12 624 25,512 2007-08 245 1,537 32 115 4,066 359,994 330 11 660 31,794 2008-09 75 1,145 17 90 3,679 249,918 389 10 800 33,186 2009-10 25 1,065 23 257 3,536 130,408 329 11 854 37,137 2010-11 25 1,133 16 148 3,292 240,111 274 4 885 32,021 2011-12 12 1,751 22 179 3,179 198,392 408 7 1,260 35,016 2012-13 89 2,360 23 136 2,813 335,819 455 4 1,250 38,932 2013-14 979 2,920 16 86 3,340 720,633 465 6 1,326 38,787 2014-15 114 2,874 19 102 3,408 222,378 405 8 1,417 40,470 2015-16 21 4,747 21 69 3,749 669,920 551 14 1,872 46,123 2016-17 65 4,906 29 105 3,954 301,124 584 18 2,080 52,149 2017-18 - 8,813 19 97 4,478 488,825 842 9 2,476 70,819 2018-19 R - 7,736 21 138 5,407 472,474 671 11 2,518 75,596 2019-20 - 5,797 14 121 8,428 302,045 884 3 2,150 65,810 2019-20 - 4,777 11 67 6,081 254,986 774 3 1,576 51,061 2020-21 P - 2,146 8 86 5,718 121,674 800 1 1,208 46,486 Jul-Mar - : Not available R : Revised P : Provisional (Contd.) 43
442. TABLE 3 .1 RESERVES AND EXTRACTION OF PRINCIPAL MINERALS Minerals in 000 tonnes Magnesite (tonnes) Rock Silica Salt Sand (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Ochre (tonnes) Sulphur (tonnes) Soap Stone (000 tonnes) Baryte Bauxite/ Laterite (tonnes) Iron Ore (tonnes) Crude Oil (m. barrels) (000 tonnes) Natural Gas (000 m.cu.mtr.) Years 2000-01 4,645 1,394 155 4,691 17,428 47 28 35,114 24,765 21.08 24.78 2001-02 4,637 1,423 157 5,064 22,580 39 21 37,182 4,942 23.19 26.16 28.11 2002-03 2,645 1,426 185 6,733 19,402 66 41 67,536 11,483 23.46 2003-04 6,074 1,640 259 7,861 23,873 53 44 88,044 84,946 22.62 34.06 2004-05 3,029 1,648 309 18,686 24,158 21 42 78,288 104,278 24.12 38.08 2005-06 1,161 1,859 411 34,320 24,695 21 52 60,370 131,259 23.94 39.65 2006-07 3,445 1,873 402 61,665 27,710 45 47 150,842 150,695 24.62 40.03 2007-08 3,940 1,849 403 46,215 29,485 38 54 174,223 286,255 25.48 41.17 2008-09 2,639 1,917 370 56,617 25,784 14 63 137,485 320,214 24.03 41.37 2009-10 5,159 1,944 411 55,352 26,641 54 57 190,077 447,541 23.71 41.99 2010-11 4,908 1,954 301 36,078 27,645 48 31 308,027 329,100 24.04 41.68 2011-12 5,444 2,136 270 42,107 25,560 56 49 323,848 384,893 24.57 44.15 2012-13 6,705 2,160 356 37,769 20,610 93 118 353,355 412,108 27.84 42.65 2013-14 4,130 2,220 298 32,634 35,672 89 134 480,054 197,074 31.58 42.30 2014-15 4,581 2,136 268 33,909 19,730 116 205 451,818 328,702 34.49 41.51 2015-16 35,228 3,553 387 68,352 14,869 126 158 773,289 432,156 31.65 41.96 2016-17 19,656 3,534 338 86,080 23,740 152 92 719,030 501,664 32.27 41.68 2017-18 23,596 3,654 376 75,939 22,040 142 89 995,855 677,206 32.56 41.32 2018-19 R 42,996 3,799 805 81,502 20,715 157 116 779,118 627,464 32.50 40.68 2019-20 16,165 3,369 780 132,144 19,948 150 55 639,890 573,695 28.09 37.29 Jul-Mar 2019-20 14,467 2,546 632 113,343 15,086 123 38 484,601 430,677 22.26 28.60 2020-21 P 15,360 2,685 323 86,628 14,920 104 18 848,934 543,641 20.77 27.26 P : Provisional R : Revised Source : Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 44
443. TABLE 3 .2 PRODUCTION INDEX OF MINING AND MANUFACTURING Mining Manufacturing Base Year 1999-2000 = 100 Year 2000-01 105.6 101.0 2001-02 112.5 114.8 2002-03 119.6 123.1 2003-04 134.8 146.4 2004-05 148.7 173.0 2005-06 100.0 100.0 2006-07 103.7 109.5 2007-08 108.9 116.1 2008-09 108.1 109.1 2009-10 110.2 109.5 2010-11 108.0 111.1 2011-12 113.7 112.4 2012-13 115.3 117.3 2013-14 118.5 123.7 2014-15 120.5 127.9 2015-16 121.6 131.9 2016-17 123.2 139.6 2017-18 129.8 146.9 2018-19 R 131.0 143.6 2019-20 119.7 129.4 Base Year 2005-06=100 Jul-Mar 2019-20 125.8 2020-21 P 118.1 P : Provisional R: Revised 138.1 150.5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 45
444. TABLE 3 .3 COTTON TEXTILES STATISTICS Year No. of Mills Installed Capacity No. of No. of Spindles Looms (000) (000) Working at the end of the period No. of No. of Spindles Looms (000) (000) Spindle Hours Worked Loom Hours Worked Consumption of Cotton Total Yarn Produced (Million) (Million) (mln kg) (mln.kg) Surplus Yarn (tonnes) Total Production of Cloth (mln. sq mtr.) 2000-01 353 8,601 10 6,913 4 59,219 34.1 2,078.3 1,721.0 1,652.7 490.2 2001-02 350 9,060 10 7,440 5 61,877 36.3 2,165.2 1,808.6 1,731.2 568.4 2002-03 453 9,260 10 7,676 5 67,519 38.7 2,372.7 1,924.9 1,833.7 582.1 2003-04 456 9,499 10 7,934 4 70,214 32.6 2,407.7 1,938.9 1,845.7 683.4 2004-05 518 10,941 9 8,852 4 72,254 30.3 2,622.8 2,290.3 2,184.3 925.0 2005-06 524 11,292 9 9,754 4 74,884 24.8 2,932.6 2,546.5 2,460.5 903.8 2006-07 521 11,266 8 10,057 4 76,892 21.7 3,143.5 2,845.2 2,623.2 977.8 2007-08 521 11,834 8 9,960 4 76,000 21.5 3,169.2 2,914.6 2,704.4 1,016.4 2008-09 521 11,366 8 9,968 4 75,325 24.0 3,195.6 2,913.4 2,753.3 1,016.9 2009-10 526 11,392 7 10,632 5 74,654 22.4 3,372.4 2,787.3 2,703.9 1,009.5 2010-11 524 11,762 7 10,757 5 76,835 22.9 3,405.7 2,939.5 2,851.2 1,029.5 2011-12 512 11,762 7 10,653 5 76,933 22.6 3,427.1 2,954.6 2,857.3 1,020.3 2012-13 526 11,946 8 10,872 5 76,757 23.4 3,539.3 3,017.9 2,960.9 1,029.1 2013-14 538 13,269 8 10,999 6 78,207 23.5 3,675.5 3,333.4 2,669.5 1,036.1 2014-15 411 13,184 8 11,058 5 79,184 24.2 2,732.7 3,369.7 3,256.2 1,036.9 2015-16 408 13,142 8 11,263 5 78,548 28.0 2,732.5 3,415.3 3,301.6 1,039.2 2016-17 408 13,409 9 11,338 6 77,213 29.7 2,733.1 3,428.1 3,315.3 1,043.3 2017-18 408 13,409 9 11,313 6 51,280 19.3 1,825.0 3,430.1 2,190.3 1,044.1 2018-19 408 13,409 9 11,338 6 80,292 30.1 2,735.2 3,431.3 3,314.4 1,046.0 2019-20 408 13,409 9 11,338 6 71,606 26.9 2,467.3 3,049.6 2,945.6 931.0 2020-21 P 408 13,409 9 11,338 6 59,236 24.5 2,056.4 2,577.7 2,494.4 786.0 P : Provisional (Jul-Mar) Source : Textile Commissioner Organization 46
445. TABLE 3 .4 PRODUCTION OF FERTILIZERS, VEGETABLE GHEE, SUGAR AND CEMENT Year Urea Super Phosphate Fertilizers Ammonium Nitrate DiaAmmonium phosphate Nitro Phosphate Vegetable Ghee Sugar (000 tonnes) Cement 2000-01 4,005.1 159.6 374.4 - 282.5 835 2,956 9,672 2001-02 4,259.6 161.0 329.4 - 305.7 797 3,247 9,935 2002-03 4,401.9 147.2 335.3 - 304.9 772 3,686 10,845 2003-04 4,431.6 167.7 350.4 - 363.5 888 4,021 12,862 2004-05 4,606.4 163.1 329.9 - 338.9 1,048 3,116 16,353 2005-06 4,806.4 160.8 327.9 436.0 356.6 1,152 2,960 18,564 2006-07 4,732.5 148.9 330.8 397.6 325.8 1,180 3,527 22,739 2007-08 4,925.0 157.7 343.7 356.2 329.7 1,137 4,733 26,751 2008-09 4,918.4 187.4 344.3 530.3 305.7 1,060 3,190 28,380 2009-10 5,056.5 148.7 345.5 625.8 304.4 1,075 3,143 31,358 2010-11 4,552.1 173.3 275.1 663.8 252.3 1,092 4,169 28,716 2011-12 4,470.7 114.7 432.3 622.6 337.6 1,103 4,634 29,557 2012-13 4,215.1 79.3 401.3 729.9 291.9 1,139 5,074 31,055 2013-14 4,930.3 87.8 519.1 693.1 447.2 1,185 5,582 31,418 2014-15 5,073.1 63.6 569.2 754.9 501.9 1,185 5,150 32,185 2015-16 5,846.9 89.5 647.4 787.6 594.6 1,241 5,115 35,432 2016-17 5,912.7 81.6 664.7 802.4 630.2 1,280 7,049 37,022 2017-18 5,405.2 65.2 518.9 758.4 471.4 1,347 6,566 41,148 2018-19 5,957.9 78.1 448.9 785.1 443.9 1,392 5,260 39,924 2019-20 6,159.8 55.8 545.7 737.7 602.7 1,447 4,881 39,122 2019-20 4,677.2 39.2 359.3 549.0 376.4 1,101 4,816 30,063 2020-21 P 3,227.2 50.8 396.3 446.1 448.5 1,064 5,619 37,620 Jul-Mar P : Provisional - : Not available Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 47
446. TABLE 3 .5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS Year Food and Tobacco Beverages Cigarettes (Million (Million litres) Nos) Jute Textiles (000 tonnes) Rubber Motor Tyres (000 Nos) Motor Tubes (000 Nos) Cycle Tyres (000 Nos) Cycle Tubes (000 Nos) 2000-01 2,542 58,259 89 2,439 3,387 4,056 5,892 2001-02 2,492 55,100 82 2,694 3,419 4,652 7,058 2002-03 2,289 49,365 96 3,360 4,091 5,330 8,942 2003-04 2,691 55,399 104 5,175 4,964 4,768 8,270 2004-05 3,424 61,097 105 5,336 6,279 4,900 9,612 2005-06 1,162 64,137 105 5,942 7,164 5,287 10,204 2006-07 1,551 65,980 118 7,027 10,277 5,182 10,420 2007-08 1,842 67,446 129 6,990 9,627 4,243 9,224 2008-09 1,896 75,609 137 7,089 14,515 3,213 6,876 2009-10 1,556 65,292 106 8,672 20,152 3,405 7,273 2010-11 1,492 65,403 93 9,222 19,108 2,879 6,534 2011-12 1,813 61,954 94 7,011 20,338 3,431 6,846 2012-13 2,079 67,377 103 7,864 20,269 3,429 7,746 2013-14 2,552 64,482 102 8,802 20,825 4,038 8,061 2014-15 2,956 62,667 94 9,058 22,001 4,633 8,391 2015-16 3,137 53,522 55 9,735 24,467 4,205 7,285 2016-17 3,565 34,341 60 9,710 24,635 3,930 7,577 2017-18 3,440 59,058 74 10,392 24,665 3,753 7,717 2018-19 3,459 60,729 67 10,807 25,514 4,584 9,907 2019-20 3,169 46,103 65 11,128 24,550 4,438 9,058 Jul-Mar 2019-20 2,229 33,521 52 8,638 18,959 3,603 7,312 2020-21 P 2,348 39,473 53 7,535 16,915 2,641 5,144 P : Provisional (Contd.) 48
447. TABLE 3 .5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS Chemicals Year Transport, Machinery & Electrical Appliances Sewing Total Bicycles Machines TV Sets Soda Ash Sulphuric Acid Caustic Soda Chlorine Gas Paints & Varnishes Polishes & Creams for Footwear (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (tonnes) (mln. grams) 2000-01 217.9 57.1 145.5 14.5 10,922 906.7 569.6 26.9 97.4 2001-02 215.2 59.4 150.3 15.1 10,341 920.9 553.4 24.0 450.0 2002-03 280.3 56.0 164.4 15.9 3,899 935.3 629.7 30.6 764.6 2003-04 286.5 64.7 187.5 17.2 5,406 950.1 664.1 35.0 843.1 2004-05 297.3 91.3 206.7 19.1 15,023 959.6 587.9 36.1 908.8 2005-06 318.7 94.4 219.3 18.3 17,147 969.2 589.6 39.1 935.1 2006-07 330.6 96.3 242.2 17.2 23,936 978.8 486.3 52.2 608.6 2007-08 364.9 102.8 248.3 18.2 26,308 988.6 535.5 57.3 716.1 2008-09 365.3 97.2 245.3 16.5 29,831 998.5 419.9 50.8 402.3 2009-10 409.6 84.7 182.3 16.1 30,749 1,008.5 447.2 48.6 342.8 2010-11 378.0 114.8 172.0 15.2 25,673 1,018.6 345.3 47.0 425.6 2011-12 370.7 100.4 179.1 15.8 23,026 1,028.8 262.1 39.6 268.8 2012-13 366.2 89.4 182.9 15.5 28,048 1,039.1 233.0 32.9 462.9 2013-14 409.1 85.3 167.5 15.0 37,236 1,049.5 203.7 19.8 426.6 2014-15 437.1 70.2 184.0 17.4 48,631 975.7 210.9 19.3 428.2 2015-16 468.5 75.1 225.3 16.4 53,651 985.5 199.0 13.5 453.2 2016-17 479.7 56.0 223.9 16.3 49,173 995.3 200.2 18.3 438.9 2017-18 509.8 49.0 270.1 16.6 51,930 1,005.3 200.3 23.4 400.3 2018-19 572.1 49.4 246.6 17.5 52,265 1,015.3 173.5 35.4 380.7 2019-20 550.6 40.3 315.6 15.8 51,761 1,025.5 141.1 28.6 282.1 2019-20 435.0 32.7 270.6 13.0 45,238 709.6 129.6 26.6 259.5 2020-21 P 439.4 50.8 292.0 13.0 66,815 716.6 53.1 15.2 (000 Nos.) (000 Nos.) (000 Nos.) Jul-Mar P : Provisional 159.3 (Contd.) 49
448. TABLE 3 .5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS Year Electrical Appliances Electric Electric Bulbs Tubes (Mln.Nos) (000 metres) Paper & Board Paper Paper Board (All Types) (000 tonnes) Coke Steel Products Pig Iron Billets (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) 2000-01 55.2 10,548.0 246.3 531.1 717.3 1,071.2 1,664.7 2001-02 52.8 10,441.0 165.1 137.9 694.6 1,042.9 1,874.2 2002-03 58.3 10,844.0 203.8 148.0 775.2 1,140.2 1,874.2 2003-04 139.4 14,630.0 225.7 156.8 785.5 1,179.9 2,118.9 2004-05 146.7 19,819.0 236.5 163.7 772.8 1,137.2 2,430.1 2005-06 143.6 19,992.0 286.1 167.7 182.3 768.0 3,380.6 2006-07 145.1 21,400.0 280.4 161.7 326.3 1,008.8 3,677.8 2007-08 129.8 19,524.0 227.6 192.0 290.9 993.4 2,873.8 2008-09 91.8 11,101.0 168.8 252.5 423.7 791.1 1,943.4 2009-10 75.6 2,914.0 178.1 248.8 342.8 483.3 1,663.8 2010-11 79.6 1,180.0 206.1 228.7 301.7 433.1 1,628.9 2011-12 79.0 1,266.0 283.0 246.3 192.9 249.1 1,616.4 2012-13 79.7 - 381.9 232.4 203.4 201.5 1,638.5 2013-14 75.1 - 465.8 218.7 31.9 89.4 2,128.3 2014-15 64.6 - 415.7 204.0 275.8 265.5 2,731.0 2015-16 73.9 - 376.9 233.1 57.4 1.5 3,183.3 2016-17 72.4 - 404.6 263.9 0.0 0.0 4,099.0 2017-18 76.4 - 457.3 273.9 0.0 0.0 5,186.0 2018-19 63.7 - 447.3 256.7 0.0 0.0 3,874.0 2019-20 54.8 - 449.4 270.4 0.0 0.0 3,164.0 Jul-Mar 2019-20 44.7 - 339.3 216.9 0.0 0.0 2,601.0 2020-21 P 40.3 - 379.9 172.9 0.0 0.0 3,564.0 P : Provisional -: Not available Source: 50 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
449. TABLE 3 .6 PERCENT GROWTH OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL ITEMS (in %) Cotton Yarn Cotton Cloth Jute Goods Veg.Ghee Cigarettes Fertilizers Cement Soda Ash Caustic Soda Sugar 2000-01 3.10 12.10 4.60 19.60 24.02 11.10 3.80 (11.30) 3.00 21.70 2001-02 5.10 16.00 (8.70) (4.50) (5.40) (1.80) 2.70 (1.20) 3.30 9.80 2002-03 5.90 2.40 16.90 (3.20) (10.40) 2.50 9.20 30.30 9.30 13.50 2003-04 0.70 17.40 8.90 15.10 12.20 9.00 18.60 2.20 14.10 9.10 2004-05 18.20 35.30 0.80 18.00 10.30 7.50 27.10 3.80 10.20 (22.50) 2005-06 11.73 (2.30) (0.30) 9.90 5.00 4.30 13.50 7.20 6.10 (5.00) 2006-07 11.73 8.18 12.97 2.45 2.87 (2.76) 22.49 3.74 10.45 19.16 2007-08 2.44 3.95 9.29 (3.63) 2.22 3.27 17.64 10.37 2.50 34.20 2008-09 (0.04) 0.05 6.50 (6.75) 12.10 1.58 6.09 0.11 (1.18) (32.61) 2009-10 (4.33) (0.74) (22.68) 1.38 (13.65) 3.58 10.49 12.12 (25.70) (1.44) 2010-11 5.46 1.08 (12.30) 1.57 0.17 (8.88) (8.43) (7.70) (5.62) 32.62 2011-12 0.52 0.30 0.98 1.01 (5.27) 0.08 2.93 (1.93) 4.11 11.16 2012-13 3.57 0.56 9.28 3.25 8.75 (4.02) 5.07 (1.22) 2.11 9.48 2013-14 8.62 0.68 (1.07) 4.08 (4.30) 16.50 1.17 11.72 (8.42) 10.03 2014-15 1.09 0.08 (7.21) (0.04) (2.81) 4.56 2.44 6.83 9.85 (7.75) 2015-16 1.36 0.22 (41.33) 4.78 (14.59) 13.87 10.09 7.18 22.45 (0.68) 2016-17 0.66 0.40 8.15 3.12 (35.84) 1.66 4.49 2.39 (0.62) 37.80 2017-18 0.06 0.04 23.86 5.21 71.98 (9.88) 11.14 6.26 20.67 (6.85) 2018-19 0.04 0.22 (9.54) 3.34 2.83 7.68 (2.97) 12.22 (8.70) (19.89) 2019-20 (10.83) (10.66) (3.08) 3.98 (24.08) 4.39 (2.01) (3.75) 27.99 (7.20) (2.96) (2.81) 8.24 5.85 (31.49) 5.81 1.79 4.63 45.54 (1.68) 3.17 3.00 1.66 (3.37) 17.76 5.69 25.14 1.01 7.92 16.66 Jul-Mar 2019-20 2020-21 P P : Provisional Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 51
450.                              
451. TABLE 4 .1 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OVERALL BUDGETARY POSITION Rs Million Fiscal Year / Item 2020-21 P (July-March) 2019-20 A. REVENUE FBR Tax Revenue (1 +2) 3,997,921 * 1. Direct Taxes 1,524,252 1,246,379 2. Indirect Taxes 2,473,669 2,148,506 i. Customs ii. Sales Tax iii. Federal Excise 3,394,885 626,378 541,049 1,596,821 1,415,770 250,470 Others 336,264 191,686 ** ^ Non-Tax Revenue 1,448,088 1,165,647 Gross Revenue Receipts 5,782,273 4,560,532 6,092,581 4,223,568 B. EXPENDITURE Current Expenditure i. Defence 1,213,281 783,966 ii. Mark-up payments 2,619,739 2,103,858 928,237 490,554 iii. Grants vi. Others*** Development Expenditure and Net Lending Statistical Discrepency Total Expenditure P : Provisional 1,331,324 845,190 726,343 412,940 60,602 3,015 6,879,526 4,639,523 Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad * : Revised FBR tax collection 2019-20 is Rs. 3,997,408 million. ** : Includes Petroleum Levy, Airport tax , other taxes of ICT, Gas Infrastructure Development Cess and Natural Gas Development Surcharge ^ According to the re classification, of data as per PFM procedures, federal taxes other than FBR have now been included under Non tax revenues *** : Includes other categories not shown here 55
452. TABLE 4 .2 SUMMARY OF PUBLIC FINANCE (CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL & PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS) Rs Million Fiscal Year / Items 2019-20 2020-21 P (July-March) 4,900,724 6,272,168 4,992,555 4,412,625 5,756,162 4,540,288 548,069 488,099 516,006 452,267 3,969,248 4,467,160 4,473,422 4,747,802 3,765,002 3,377,145 3,647,476 4,065,788 4,071,619 4,334,185 3,394,885 283,273 321,772 401,372 401,803 413,617 370,117 913,446 786,561 967,475 760,854 427,302 1,524,366 1,227,553 1,023,414 837,831 693,247 887,976 614,157 341,006 1,421,977 1,145,403 49,374 75,615 93,314 79,499 146,697 86,296 102,389 82,150 5,026,016 5,387,767 5,796,302 6,800,520 7,488,394 8,345,640 9,648,488 6,644,601 6,085,411 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Total Revenues (i+ii) 3,637,297 3,931,042 4,446,979 4,936,723 5,228,014 Federal 3,397,954 3,649,604 4,070,392 4,535,452 4,679,945 239,343 281,438 376,587 401,271 2,564,509 3,017,596 3,660,418 2,374,540 2,811,773 189,969 205,823 ii) Non-Tax Revenues 1,072,788 Federal Provincial i) Tax Revenues Federal Provincial Provincial Total Expenditures (a+b+c+d) a) Current 2017-18 2018-19 4,004,582 4,424,747 4,694,294 5,197,854 5,854,266 7,104,031 8,532,020 Federal 2,831,249 3,037,584 3,144,276 3,472,150 3,789,767 4,776,150 6,016,192 4,157,266 Provincial 1,173,333 1,387,163 1,550,018 1,725,704 2,064,499 2,327,881 2,515,828 1,928,145 1,135,918 1,113,223 1,301,473 1,693,474 1,584,057 1,178,442 1,155,213 667,997 100,610 27,381 12,631 -12,817 37,625 40,750 48,528 54,950 -215,094 -177,584 -212,096 -77,991 12,446 22,417 -87,273 -163,757 Overall Balance -1,388,719 -1,456,725 -1,349,323 -1,863,797 -2,260,380 -3,444,916 -3,376,320 -1,652,046 Financing (net) 1,388,719 1,456,725 1,349,323 1,863,797 2,260,380 3,444,916 3,376,320 1,652,046 External (net) 511,727 181,032 370,465 541,390 785,166 416,706 895,510 562,158 Domestic (i+ii+iii) 876,992 1,275,693 978,858 1,322,407 1,475,214 3,028,210 2,480,810 1,089,888 i) Non-Bank 553,330 366,138 191,843 276,629 352,719 764,986 540,250 292,137 ii) Bank 323,662 892,057 787,015 1,045,778 1,120,495 2,263,224 1,940,561 797,751 0 17,498 0 2,000 b) Development Development (PSDP) c) Net Lending to PSE's d) Statistical Discrepancy iii) Privatization Proceeds 0 - - - 38,086 41,556 47,709 Memorandum Item GDP (mp) in Rs. Billion 25,169 27,443 29,076 31,922 34,616 (As Percent of GDP at Market Price) Total Revenue Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Expenditure Current Development Expenditure & net Lending Overall Balance 14.5 14.3 15.3 15.5 15.1 12.9 15.1 10.5 10.2 11.0 12.6 12.4 12.9 11.7 11.4 7.9 4.3 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.1 3.7 2.6 20.0 19.6 19.9 21.3 21.6 21.9 23.2 13.9 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.9 18.7 20.5 12.8 4.9 4.2 4.5 5.3 4.7 3.2 2.9 1.5 -5.5 -5.3 -4.6 -5.8 -6.5 -9.0 -8.1 -3.5 P : Provisional Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad 56
453. TABLE 4 .3 CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL & PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES Rs Million Fiscal Year/Items Total Revenue (I+II) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 P (July-March) 2,982,436 3,637,297 3,931,042 4,446,979 4,936,723 5,228,014 4,900,724 6,272,168 4,992,555 2,760,436 3,397,954 3,649,604 4,070,392 4,535,452 4,679,945 4,412,625 5,756,162 4,540,288 222,000 239,343 281,438 376,587 401,271 548,069 488,099 516,006 452,267 2,199,232 2,564,509 3,017,596 3,660,418 3,969,248 4,467,160 4,473,422 4,747,802 3,765,002 2,048,509 2,374,540 2,811,773 3,377,145 3,647,476 4,065,788 4,071,619 4,334,185 3,394,885 150,723 189,969 205,823 283,273 321,772 401,372 401,803 413,617 370,117 742,488 893,351 1,040,038 1,195,462 1,350,233 1,452,620 1,533,903 1,253,470 735,758 884,118 1,029,244 1,191,602 1,343,197 1,536,636 1,445,594 1,524,252 1,246,379 6,730 9,233 10,794 3,860 7,036 5,551 7,026 9,651 7,091 B. Indirect Taxes 1,456,744 1,671,158 1,977,558 2,464,956 2,619,015 2,924,973 3,020,802 3,213,899 2,511,531 3. Excise Duty 124,349 144,540 170,004 197,461 205,205 214,431 242,865 258,113 198,020 Federal 119,453 139,084 163,969 190,581 198,570 205,877 233,591 250,470 191,686 Provincial 4,896 5,456 6,035 6,880 6,635 8,554 9,274 7,643 6,334 4. Sales Tax* 841,324 1,002,110 1,088,823 1,323,685 1,323,261 1,491,310 1,464,887 1,596,821 1,415,770 tional Trade 239,608 240,997 306,140 406,180 496,018 608,325 685,397 626,378 541,049 6. Surcharges* 141,837 142,064 157,231 181,944 239,959 203,086 211,612 306,037 386,459 32,171 38,530 25,874 32,654 73,262 24,212 5,304 12,356 17,249 109,666 103,534 131,357 149,290 166,697 178,874 206,308 293,681 369,210 141,797 179,977 255,360 355,686 354,572 407,821 416,041 426,550 356,692 - - - 129,752 170,791 223,860 202,881 232,969 210,753 7.2 Stamp Duties 18,306 21,790 29,476 35,484 38,167 62,754 70,396 59,148 40,289 7.3 Motor Vehicle Taxes 13,975 15,565 15,872 19,077 21,282 24,123 24,850 17,979 20,532 Federal Provincial I. Tax Revenues (A+B) Federal Provincial A. Direct Taxes (1+2) 1 Federal 2 Provincial 1,542,187 5. Taxes on Interna- 6.1 Gas 6.2 Petroleum 7. Other Taxes ** 7.1 Sales Tax on services GST 7.4 Gas Infrastructure Development Cess* 7.4 Others II. Non-Tax Revenues Federal Provincial - - 57,021 79,771 42,149 15,176 21,471 9,346 109,516 142,622 152,991 91,602 82,183 81,908 96,443 107,108 - 783,204 1,072,788 913,446 786,561 967,475 760,854 427,302 1,524,366 1,227,553 711,927 1,023,414 837,831 693,247 887,976 614,157 341,006 1,421,977 1,145,403 71,277 49,374 75,615 93,314 79,499 146,697 86,296 102,389 82,150 85,118 *** P: Provisional Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division * : Revenues under these heads are exclusively Federal ** : Mainly includes Provincial Revenues *** : Includes other provincial tax revenues Note: According to the re classification, of data as per PFM procedures, federal taxes other than FBR have now been included under Non tax revenues 57
454. TABLE 4 .4 CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL & PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES Rs Million Fiscal Year/Items Current Expenditure 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 P (July-March) 4,004,582 4,424,747 4,694,294 5,197,854 5,854,266 7,104,031 8,532,020 6,085,411 Federal 2,831,249 3,037,584 3,144,276 3,472,150 3,789,767 4,776,150 6,016,192 4,157,266 Provincial 1,173,333 1,387,163 1,550,018 1,725,704 2,064,499 2,327,881 2,515,828 1,928,145 623,085 697,821 757,653 888,078 1,030,407 1,146,793 1,213,281 783,966 1,147,793 1,303,767 1,263,368 1,348,435 1,499,922 2,091,126 2,619,739 2,103,858 Defence Mark-up Payments Current Subsidies 305,748 241,593 207,161 153,717 114,194 195,345 359,923 204,262 Others 754,623 794,403 916,094 1,081,920 1,145,244 1,342,886 1,823,249 1,065,180 1,135,918 1,113,223 1,301,473 1,693,474 1,584,057 1,178,442 1,155,213 667,997 100,610 27,381 12,631 -12,817 37,625 40,750 48,528 54,950 -215,094 -177,584 -212,096 -77,991 12,446 22,417 -87,273 -163,757 Expenditure Booked excl discrepency 5,241,110 5,565,351 6,008,398 6,878,511 7,475,948 8,323,223 9,735,761 6,808,358 Total Expenditure 5,026,016 5,387,767 5,796,302 6,800,520 7,488,394 8,345,640 9,648,488 6,644,601 Development Expenditure Net Lending to PSEs Statistical Discrepancy (Percent Growth over preceding period) Memorandum Items: Current Expenditure 9.4 10.5 6.1 10.7 12.6 21.3 Defence 15.3 12.0 8.6 17.2 16.0 11.3 5.8 Mark-up Payments 15.8 13.6 -3.1 6.7 11.2 39.4 25.3 Current Subsidies -14.6 -21.0 -14.3 -25.8 -25.7 71.1 84.2 Development Expenditure 46.2 -2.0 16.9 30.1 -6.5 -25.6 -2.0 9.2 6.2 8.0 14.5 8.7 11.3 17.0 4.4 7.2 7.6 17.3 10.1 11.4 15.6 Expenditure Booked excl discrepency Total Expenditure 20.1 As % of total expenditures Current Expenditure 79.7 82.1 81.0 76.4 78.2 85.1 88.4 91.6 Defence 12.4 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.8 13.7 12.6 11.8 Mark-up Payments 22.8 24.2 21.8 19.8 20.0 25.1 27.2 31.7 Current Subsidies 6.1 4.5 3.6 2.3 1.5 2.3 3.7 3.1 Development Expenditure* 24.6 21.2 22.7 24.7 21.7 14.6 12.5 10.9 P: Provisional * : Include Net Lending Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division 58
455. TABLE 4 .5 DEBT SERVICING Rs Million Fiscal Year / Item A. Mark-up Payments Servicing of Domestic Debt Servicing of Foreign Debt 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 1,147,793 1,303,767 1,263,368 1,348,435 1,072,813 1,208,105 1,150,809 1,220,265 1,322,645 177,277 1,499,922 2018-19 2,091,126 1,820,821 2019-20 2020-21 P (July-March) 2,619,739 2,103,858 2,313,133 1,933,981 169,877 74,980 95,662 112,559 128,170 270,305 306,606 312,112 285,193 335,307 544,314 450,189 974,001 1,362,353 711,026 1,459,905 1,588,960 1,598,675 1,892,749 1,950,111 3,065,127 3,982,092 2,814,884 Servicing of Domestic Debt 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.6 4.1 Servicing of Foreign Debt 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 Repayment/Amortization of Foreign Debt 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 2.6 3.3 1.5 Total Debt Servicing 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.9 5.6 8.0 9.6 5.9 B. Repayment/Amortization of Foreign Debt C. Total Debt Servicing (A+B) MEMORANDUM ITEMS (As Percent of GDP) P; Provisional Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division 59
456.                              
457. TABLE 5 .1 COMPONENTS OF BROAD MONEY (M2) (Rs. Million) End June Stock 2016 1. Currency Issued 2. Currency held by SBP 3. Currency in title of Scheduled Banks 4. Currency in circulation (1-2-3) 5. Other deposits with SBP* 6. 7. Scheduled Banks Total Deposits** Resident Foreign Currency Deposits (RFCD) 8. Broad Money (4+5+6) 9. Growth rate (%) 2017 3,563,749 2018 4,176,915 2019 4,644,900 2020-21 (Mar) 2020 5,294,754 6,468,725 6,871,333 634 973 1,181 1,199 1,201 565 229,331 264,627 255,891 343,516 325,508 329,679 3,333,784 3,911,315 4,387,828 4,950,039 6,142,016 6,541,090 18,756 22,692 26,962 33,636 41,218 56,624 9,472,313 10,646,875 11,582,372 12,814,820 14,724,770 15,932,441 587,258 655,340 829,355 1,109,780 1,074,511 1,006,057 12,824,853 14,580,882 15,997,162 17,798,494 20,908,003 22,530,155 13.7 13.7 9.7 11.3 17.5 7.8 27.4 27.8 29.4 29.0 63.0 62.8 60.6 62.3 Memorandum 1. Currency / Money ratio 26.0 2. Demand Deposits / Money ratio 63.9 3. Time Deposits / Money ratio 5.4 4.2 4.2 3.0 4.7 4.0 4. Other Deposits / Money ratio 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 5. RFCD / Money ratio 4.6 4.5 5.2 6.2 5.1 4.5 6. Income Velocity of Money*** 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 P : Provisional 2.4 26.8 64.3 R : Revised Source: State Bank of Pakistan * : The deposits of other institutions are part of ‘other deposits’ from July 03, 2020 onwards. ** : Excluding inter banks deposits and deposits of federal and provincial governments, foreign constituents and international organization etc. *** : Income velocity of money is taken as GDP at current factor cost / quarterly average of monetary assets (M2) 63
458. TABLE 5 .2 CAUSATIVE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD MONEY (M2) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Rs. Million) 2020-21 (Mar) A. Stock End June 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Public Sector Borrowing (net) (i + ii + iii) i. Net Budgetary Support ii. Commodity Operations iii. Zakat Fund etc. Non-Government Sector i. Autonomous Bodies* ii. Net Credit to Private Sector &PSEs a. Private Sector b. Public Sector Corp. other than 2(i) c. PSEs Special Account Debt Repayment d. Other Financial Institutions (NBFIs) Counterpart Funds Other Items (Net) Domestic Credit (1+2+3+4) Foreign Assets (Net) Broad Money (5+6) 7,819,545 7,194,814 636,574 -11,843 5,012,588 200,760 4,811,828 4,449,547 367,297 -24,244 19,228 -530 -1,014,348 11,817,255 1,007,598 12,824,853 8,955,597 8,282,074 686,508 -12,985 6,011,267 250,244 5,761,023 5,197,473 572,553 -24,244 15,241 -530 -987,502 13,978,833 602,049 14,580,882 10,199,670 9,392,960 819,680 -12,971 7,033,598 324,787 6,708,811 5,972,968 743,413 -24,244 16,675 -530 -1,027,153 16,205,586 -208,423 15,997,162 12,336,664 11,596,468 756,416 -16,220 8,072,803 285,745 7,787,058 6,666,505 1,108,476 -24,244 36,321 -560 -1,103,333 19,305,575 -1,507,081 17,798,494 14,547,233 13,748,309 813,435 -14,510 8,372,428 258,059 8,114,369 6,862,862 1,232,463 -24,244 43,288 -534 -1,494,971 21,424,157 -516,153 20,908,003 15,183,275 14,490,407 700,913 -8,044 8,855,264 261,989 8,593,276 7,362,427 1,205,756 -24,244 49,337 -532 -1,675,010 22,362,998 167,157 22,530,155 B. Changes over the year (July-June) Public Sector Borrowing (net) (i+ii+iii) 861,330 1,136,052 1,244,073 2,136,994 2,210,569 636,042 i. Net Budgetary Support 791,255 1,087,260 1,110,887 2,203,507 2,151,841 742,098 ii. Commodity Operations 72,115 49,934 133,172 -63,264 57,019 -112,522 iii. Zakat Fund etc. -2,040 -1,142 14 -3,249 1,709 6,466 9. Non-Government Sector 556,587 998,679 1,022,331 1,039,205 299,625 482,836 i. Autonomous Bodies* 58,581 49,484 74,543 -39,042 -27,686 3,930 ii. Net Credit to Private Sector & PSCEs 498,006 949,195 947,788 1,078,247 327,311 478,906 a. Private Sector* 446,463 747,926 775,495 693,537 196,357 499,564 b. Public Sector Corp. other than 2(i) 50,736 205,256 170,859 365,064 123,987 -26,707 c. PSEs Special Account Debt Repayment -169 0 0 0 0 0 d. Other Financial Institutions (NBFIs) 975 -3,987 1,433 19,646 6,967 6,049 10. Counterpart Funds 0 0 0 -30 25 3 11. Other Items (Net) -70,060 26,846 -39,651 -76,180 -391,638 -180,040 12. Domestic Credit Expansion (8+9+10+11) 1,347,857 2,161,578 2,226,753 3,099,989 2,118,582 938,841 13. Foreign Assets (Net) 194,851 -405,549 -810,473 -1,298,658 990,928 683,310 14. Monetary Expansion (12+13) 1,542,708 1,756,029 1,416,280 1,801,332 3,109,510 1,622,151 P : Provisional R: Revised Source: State Bank of Pakistan * : Autonomous bodies are WAPDA (PEPCO), OGDCL, SSGC, SNGPL, PIA, Pakistan Steel and Pakistan Railway. 8. 64
459. TABLE 5 .3 SCHEDULED BANKS' CONSOLIDATED POSITION BASED ON LAST WEEKEND POSITION OF LIABILITIES & ASSETS (Rs. in Million) 2018 2019 2020 2020-21 (Mar) 781,400 1,122,866 126,065 185,623 262,861 503,760 7,542,990 8,166,143 5,113,688 6,176,306 460,632 456,701 4,653,056 5,719,604 317,857 345,652 54,749 47,428 626,331 711,952 14,365,309 16,803,028 1,349,450 186,038 612,681 8,178,723 7,361,622 463,772 6,897,850 417,591 52,835 715,125 18,410,293 1,966,692 195,992 717,249 7,624,217 8,096,771 488,093 7,608,677 468,981 59,834 943,951 19,585,594 1,408,559 212,150 843,513 10,681,288 8,202,328 546,797 7,655,531 567,753 56,161 950,083 22,375,037 1,383,353 261,200 843,927 12,503,807 8,536,458 628,703 7,907,755 621,284 70,707 846,762 24,438,794 Liabilities Bills Payable 223,062 201,124 Borrowings 2,245,107 2,654,899 Deposits and other Accounts 10,060,188 11,980,697 Sub-ordinated Loans 47,696 46,910 Liabilities Against Assets Subject to Finance Lease 48 35 Deferred Tax Liabilities 35,556 44,774 411,820 Other Liabilities 446,232 Total Liabilities 13,032,696 15,365,453 230,357 3,014,680 13,062,787 79,460 20 22,070 577,934 16,987,306 299,737 245,363 2,412,023 2,865,768 14,458,307 16,229,036 108,670 126,296 0 2,134 47,329 22,591 803,227 964,493 18,104,555 20,480,420 Item Description Assets Cash & Balances with Treasury Banks Balances with other Banks Lending to Financial Institutions Investments Gross Advances Less: Provision for Non- Performing Advances Advances – Net of Provision Operating Fixed Assets Deferred Tax Assets Other Assets Total Assets 2016 2017 Net Assets 1,332,613 1,437,575 1,422,987 1,481,039 Represented by: Paid up Capital / Head Office Capital Account Reserves Un-appropriated / Un-remitted Profit Sub total Surplus/ (Deficit) on Revaluation of Assets Total 538,631 227,497 337,664 1,103,792 228,821 1,332,613 651,359 199,217 392,033 1,242,609 194,964 1,437,573 525,796 285,610 440,846 1,252,252 170,736 1,422,988 546,922 556,465 561,397 340,060 357,675 369,807 480,816 618,864 706,049 1,367,798 1,533,004 1,637,254 113,241 361,613 236,517 1,481,039 1,894,617 1,873,771 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 65 1,894,617 296,257 3,705,643 17,435,284 112,735 1,835 23,456 989,812 22,565,023 1,873,771
460. TABLE 5 .4 INCOME VELOCITY OF MONEY End June Stocks Narrow Money M1 Monetary Assets (M2) Growth Percentage (Rs. Billion) Income Velocity of Monetary Assets (M2) 2000-01 1,275.61 1,526.04 9.0 2.6 2001-02 1,494.14 1,751.88 14.8 2.5 2002-03 1,797.36 2,078.48 18.6 2.3 2003-04 2,174.74 2,485.49 19.6 2.3 2004-05 2,512.21 2,960.64 19.1 2.4 2005-06 2,720.68 3,406.91 15.1 2.4 2006-07 3,155.63 4,065.16 19.3 2.3 2007-08 4,339.50 4,689.14 15.3 2.3 2008-09 3,621.22 5,137.21 9.6 2.7 2009-10 - 5,777.23 12.5 2.7 2010-11 - 6,695.19 15.9 2.9 2011-12 - 7,641.79 14.1 2.8 2012-13 - 8,856.36 15.9 2.7 2013-14 - 9,966.58 12.5 2.7 2014-15 - 11,282.14 13.2 2.6 2015-16 - 12,824.85 13.7 2.4 2016-17 - 14,580.88 13.7 2.3 2017-18 - 15,997.16 9.7 2.3 2018-19 - 17,798.49 11.3 2.3 2019-20 - 20,908.00 17.5 2.2 2020-21(Mar) P 22,530.15 7.8 P : Provisional Source: State Bank of Pakistan Explanatory Notes: 1. It may be noted that data series of M1 from 2000-01 is not comparable as compilation of M1 based on weekly data has been discontinued by the SBP. Now M1 is being compiled on the basis of monthly returns and as reported in the monthly Statistical Bulletin of the SBP beginning from April 2008 in its table 2.1. Now its compilation has been discontinued. 2. Income velocity of money is estimated using GDP at current factor cost/ Average of quarter end monetary assets (M2). 66
461. TABLE 5 .5 LIST OF DOMESTIC, FOREIGN BANKS AND DFIs Public Sector Commercial Banks 1. First Women Bank Ltd. 2. National Bank of Pakistan 3. Sindh Bank Limited 4. The Bank of Khyber 5. The Bank of Punjab Foreign Banks 1. Citibank N.A. 2. Deutsche Bank A.G. 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 4. Bank of China Limited Specialized Scheduled Banks Development Financial Institutions 1. The Punjab Provincial Co-operative Bank 1. House Building Finance Company Limited 2. Industrial Development Bank Limited (IDBL) 2. PAIR Investment Company Limited 3. SME Bank Limited 3. Pak Kuwait Investment Company of Pakistan (Pvt) Limited 4. Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited 4. Pak Libya Holding Company (Pvt) Limited 5. Pak Oman Investment Company (Pvt) Limited Private Local Banks 6. Pak-Brunai Investment Company Ltd 1. Allied Bank Limited 7. Pak-China Investment Co. Ltd 2. Albarka Bank Pakistan Limited* 8. Pakistan Mortgage Refinance Company Limited 3. Askari Bank Limited 9. Saudi Pak Industrial & Agricultural Investment Company 4. Bank Al Falah Limited (Pvt) Limited 5. Bank Al Habib Limited 6. Bank Islami Pakistan Limited* Micro Finance Banks 7. Dubai Islamic Bank Pakistan Limited* 1. Advans Pakistan Microfinance Bank 8. Faysal Bank Limited 2. Apna Microfinance Bank Ltd 9. Habib Bank Limited 3. FINCA Microfinance Bank Ltd 10. Habib Metropolitan Bank Limited 4. Khushhali Microfinance Bank 11. JS Bank Limited 5. Mobilink Microfinance Bank 12. MCB Bank Limited (Formerly Waseela Microfinance Bank) 13. MCB Islamic Bank* 6. NRSP Microfinance Bank Ltd 14. Meezan Bank Limited* 7. Pak Oman Microfinance Bank Ltd 15. Samba Bank Limited 8. Sindh Microfinance Bank Limited 16. Silk Bank Limited 9. Telenor Microfinance Bank Ltd 17. Soneri Bank Limited 10. The First Microfinance Bank 18. Standard Chartered Bank (Pakistan) Limited 11. U Microfinance Bank Limited 19. Summit Bank Limited 20. United Bank Limited * : Full fledged Islamic Banks Source: State Bank of Pakistan 67
462. TABLE 5 .6 SECURITY AND NATURE WISE WEIGHTED AVERAGE LENDING RATES (ALL SCHEDULED BANKS) As at the End of Precious Metal I. INTEREST BEARING 2005 Jun 2006 Jun 2007 Jun Dec 2008 Jun Dec 2009 Jun Dec 2010 Jun Dec 2011 Jun Dec 2012 Jun Dec 2013 Jun Dec 2014 Jun Dec 2015 Jun Dec 2016 Jun Dec 2017 Jun Dec 2018 Jun Dec 8.51 (8.51) 11.58 (11.58) 10.87 (10.87) 11.45 (11.45) 13.62 (13.62) 14.64 (14.64) 14.86 (14.86) 14.07 (14.07) 14.85 (14.85) 14.72 (14.72) 15.78 (15.78) 14.78 (14.78) 12.80 (12.80) 15.40 (15.40) 14.86 (14.86) 9.66 (9.66) 15.46 (15.46) 15.32 (15.32) 12.99 (12.99) 14.45 (14.45) 11.60 (11.60) 11.35 (11.35) 14.51 (14.51) 14.13 (14.13) 11.95 (11.93) 11.96 (11.96) Stock Exchange Securities 6.86 (8.29) 14.84 (14.09) 11.37 (12.11) 10.36 (10.42) 12.37 (12.60) 13.88 (14.11) 12.15 (10.11) 11.62 (10.28) 13.86 (14.30) 13.36 (12.30) 12.42 (13.26) 10.20 (9.95) 12.86 (15.01) 12.28 (12.25) 11.72 (11.95) 11.65 (11.97) 12.03 (12.49) 11.93 (12.73) 11.15 (11.06) 9.44 (10.49) 8.30 (9.40) 9.18 (9.50) 7.31 (9.56) 7.4 (9.31) 8.18 (9.88) 9.98 (10.85) Merchandise Machinery 6.09 (6.01) 8.68 (8.51) 10.73 (10.68) 9.82 (9.82) 11.78 (11.77) 13.83 (13.83) 13.45 (13.07) 12.38 (12.17) 10.90 (9.77) 11.69 (11.32) 11.33 (10.50) 11.53 (11.27) 11.89 (11.48) 10.55 (10.15) 8.71 (8.61) 10.77 (10.50) 10.11 (9.66) 9.58 (9.07) 9.13 (8.73) 8.69 (8.92) 8.76 (8.18) 7.94 (7.94) 7.11 (7.85) 7.16 (7.16) 7.81 (7.83) 10.76 (10.76) 4.59 (4.07) 8.55 (8.55) 11.07 (11.06) 11.09 (11.09) 13.16 (13.16) 12.05 (12.04) 11.91 (11.91) 12.78 (12.78) 9.63 (9.63) 12.02 (11.95) 11.11 (11.11) 8.89 (8.85) 11.07 (11.02) 8.31 (8.28) 8.45 (8.42) 9.67 (9.66) 9.92 (9.92) 9.64 (9.64) 8.64 (8.64) 8.79 (8.79) 8.59 (8.80) 8.44 (8.44) 8.38 (8.38) 8.33 (8.33) 9.42 (9.37) 10.19 (10.19) 68 Real Estate 6.68 (6.68) 10.23 (10.23) 12.30 (12.30) 12.85 (12.85) 12.21 (12.21) 13.60 (13.60) 14.14 (13.75) 13.70 (13.70) 12.77 (12.77) 12.48 (12.47) 12.01 (12.01) 11.46 (11.46) 12.49 (12.49) 10.20 (10.20) 10.80 (10.80) 11.11 (11.11) 11.61 (11.61) 11.65 (11.65) 9.91 (9.91) 9.29 (9.29) 8.80 (8.80) 8.49 (8.49) 8.67 (8.67) 8.31 (8.77) 9.34 (9.34) 10.37 (10.37) Financial Obligations 6.76 (6.70) 10.31 (10.31) 11.05 (11.05) 10.02 (10.02) 13.32 (13.32) 16.55 (16.55) 15.30 (15.27) 12.43 (11.87) 12.07 (12.07) 13.45 (13.45) 11.04 (11.04) 13.12 (13.12) 12.30 (12.30) 8.40 (8.40) 9.40 (9.40) 7.79 (7.79) 7.10 (7.10) 7.39 (7.39) 7.32 (7.32) 6.65 (6.65) 9.58 (9.58) 4.76 (4.76) 4.52 (4.52) 8.89 (8.89) 4.88 (4.88) 8.67 (8.67) Others in Percentage Total Advances* 8.86 (9.02) 9.59 (9.99) 10.76 (10.81) 11.93 (11.98) 13.02 (13.14) 13.74 (13.52) 13.21 (13.10) 12.35 (11.99) 13.02 (13.20) 12.92 (12.81) 12.85 (12.69) 12.90 (12.88) 13.29 (13.24) 11.41 (11.92) 10.64 (10.58) 11.49 (12.22) 11.72 (11.72) 12.33 (12.33) 11.51 (11.51) 11.38 (11.38) 10.03 (10.72) 10.92 (11.21) 11.03 (11.55) 10.35 (11.62) 11.86 (11.88) 13.08 (13.10) 7.01 (7.01) 9.71 (9.66) 11.25 (11.30) 11.64 (11.66) 12.53 (12.57) 13.60 (13.66) 13.54 (13.54) 12.66 (12.48) 12.20 (12.03) 12.36 (12.19) 12.01 (11.72) 11.81 (11.68) 12.43 (12.28) 10.77 (10.81) 9.97 (9.89) 10.91 (11.04) 11.20 (11.10) 11.30 (11.20) 10.27 (10.14) 9.90 (10.07) 9.25 (9.44) 9.28 (9.36) 8.88 (9.35) 8.67 (9.17) 9.71 (9.79) 11.47 (11.52)
463. TABLE 5 .6 SECURITY AND NATURE WISE WEIGHTED AVERAGE LENDING RATES (ALL SCHEDULED BANKS) As at the End of Precious Metal Stock Merchan- Machinery Exchange dise Securities II. ISLAMIC MODES OF FINANCING 2005 Jun 9.03 7.15 7.93 7.80 (9.03) (7.17) (7.95) (7.88) 2006 Jun 10.66 10.03 9.63 9.14 (10.66) (10.20) (9.66) (9.20) 2007 Jun 12.04 11.26 10.11 10.80 (12.04) (11.34) (10.03) (10.84) Dec 9.70 11.27 10.26 10.76 (9.70) (11.41) (10.23) (10.82) 2008 Jun 11.75 12.87 11.53 12.26 (11.75) (12.93) (11.55) (12.22) Dec 15.02 15.76 14.42 14.62 (15.02) (15.66) (14.19) (14.67) 2009 Jun 14.18 15.01 14.19 14.20 (14.18) (15.03) (13.73) (14.10) Dec 14.18 13.61 12.10 12.72 (14.14) (14.02) (12.18) (12.70) 2010 Jun 15.08 14.26 13.16 13.81 (15.74) (14.34) (12.80) (13.79) Dec 15.20 13.80 13.01 13.10 (15.20) (13.59) (12.69) (13.18) 2011 Jun 16.24 11.04 12.81 13.74 (16.24) (14.41) (12.36) (14.22) Dec 13.50 13.06 13.40 14.18 (13.50) (13.21) (13.17) (14.14) 2012 Jun 9.46 11.63 12.84 12.51 (9.63) (12.89) (12.43) (13.17) Dec 9.53 11.10 11.19 12.10 (9.53) (11.67) (10.91) (12.03) 2013 Jun 12.80 11.65 11.02 11.74 (13.69) (11.44) (10.92) (11.46) Dec 14.20 10.80 10.52 11.14 (15.26) (10.99) (10.48) (11.03) 2014 Jun 14.22 11.27 10.12 9.48 (15.12) (11.25) (10.44) (11.16) Dec 13.73 11.00 10.35 10.72 (15.03) (11.01) (10.31) (11.04) 2015 Jun 11.59 8.83 8.48 8.22 (12.22) (8.79) (8.68) (8.62) Dec 13.15 8.42 7.32 8.16 (13.85) (7.94) (7.43) (8.18) 2016 Jun 11.28 6.73 7.44 8.01 (11.28) (8.21) (7.48) (8.24) Dec 11.18 7.75 6.47 7.10 (11.19) (7.58) (6.88) (7.00) 2017 Jun 8.25 7.40 6.93 5.88 (8.25) (7.24) (6.90) (7.11) Dec 7.87 7.17 6.94 7.21 (7.87) (7.82) (7.04) (7.37) 2018 Jun 10.98 7.74 7.19 7.85 (12.10) (7.63) (7.16) (7.95) Dec 9.48 9.81 8.70 9.53 (9.48) (10.14) (8.80) (9.30) Real Estate 10.16 (10.22) 11.23 (11.26) 11.92 (11.92) 11.80 (11.79) 12.11 (12.12) 13.51 (13.49) 13.27 (13.30) 12.71 (12.71) 12.25 (12.24) 12.24 (12.23) 12.57 (12.53) 12.46 (12.46) 11.84 (11.81) 12.43 (12.40) 12.05 (12.04) 11.23 (11.29) 12.03 (11.71) 11.50 (11.50) 10.49 (10.56) 9.12 (9.20) 9.56 (9.75) 8.07 (9.03) 8.79 (8.99) 8.69 (8.91) 8.75 (8.88) 10.24 (10.29) Financial Obligations 8.21 (8.19) 9.25 (9.25) 10.43 (10.49) 10.58 (10.62) 11.23 (11.23) 15.00 (15.02) 15.83 (16.79) 11.93 (11.55) 13.59 (13.67) 12.86 (12.79) 12.81 (12.83) 12.42 (12.51) 14.11 (14.10) 13.30 (13.21) 13.80 (12.57) 9.10 (10.67) 10.65 (10.65) 10.22 (10.19) 10.19 (9.58) 9.70 (8.57) 10.17 (9.37) 4.84 (7.94) 6.74 (6.74) 6.99 (6.99) 7.17 (7.17) 8.65 (8.52) Others (in Percentage) Total Advances* 10.15 (10.67) 12.37 (12.90) 13.02 (13.40) 12.93 (13.26) 13.90 (14.21) 15.89 (15.96) 15.08 (15.20) 14.88 (14.96) 14.83 (14.94) 14.59 (14.82) 14.73 (14.43) 15.04 (14.92) 13.68 (13.52) 12.80 (13.02) 12.20 (12.88) 11.79 (12.59) 12.29 (12.90) 11.94 (12.91) 9.48 (10.46) 8.76 (10.05) 8.94 (10.69) 8.42 (9.71) 8.43 (9.58) 8.32 (9.74) 8.46 (9.92) 10.39 (11.05) 8.94 (9.13) 10.68 (10.83) 11.57 (11.68) 11.55 (11.65) 12.48 (12.55) 14.72 (14.72) 14.31 (14.30) 13.22 (13.10) 13.73 (13.52) 13.43 (13.23) 13.55 (13.32) 13.83 (13.62) 12.84 (12.72) 12.02 (11.93) 11.78 (11.81) 11.20 (11.37) 11.18 (11.58) 11.11 (11.28) 9.13 (9.54) 8.33 (8.65) 8.34 (8.85) 7.51 (8.05) 7.41 (7.98) 7.71 (8.12) 8.00 (8.36) 9.67 (9.71) (Contd…) 69
464. TABLE 5 .6 SECURITY AND NATURE WISE WEIGHTED AVERAGE LENDING RATES / FINANCING RATES (ALL SCHEDULED BANKS) (Percent) As at the End of Precious Metal Stock Financial Exchange Merchandise Machinery Real Estate Obligations Securities Others Unsecured Total Advances Advances* Conventional Banking 2019 Jun Dec 2020 Jun R Dec 11.20 12.34 10.32 11.74 11.09 10.74 11.88 28.12 11.64 (11.20) (12.41) (10.19) (11.58) (11.09) (10.74) (12.00) (28.12) (11.56) 12.67 14.08 11.20 12.89 11.55 12.01 14.08 26.14 12.92 (12.67) (13.79) (10.99) (12.64) (11.53) (11.65) (13.80) (26.14) (12.42) 14.13 10.79 8.87 9.60 9.25 8.65 10.96 28.20 10.30 (14.13) (10.73) (8.60) (9.69) (9.25) (8.71) (10.96) (28.20) (10.10) 10.58 7.85 6.90 7.83 7.10 7.01 8.06 27.42 8.00 (10.58) (7.83) (6.84) (7.80) (7.10) (6.90) (7.80) (27.42) (7.93) Jun - 11.26 10.99 11.07 10.87 9.31 11.34 5.76 11.13 - (8.00) (10.95) (10.90) (10.87) (9.31) (11.23) (5.24) (10.99) Dec - 10.95 11.59 12.63 12.14 10.35 12.92 12.92 12.40 - (7.13) (11.53) (12.63) (12.16) (10.35) (11.85) (10.52) (11.96) Islamic Banking 2019 2020 Jun R Dec - 13.12 9.55 11.10 10.30 9.30 10.56 10.81 10.38 - (11.43) (9.46) (11.16) (10.25) (8.83) (10.20) (10.74) (10.19) - 7.96 7.51 8.41 8.27 6.59 7.38 9.82 7.76 - (9.56) (7.52) (8.42) (8.34) (6.49) (7.29) (9.82) (7.83) R: Revised Source: State Bank of Pakistan * : Weighted average rates shown in parentheses represent Private Sector 70
465. TABLE 5 .7 SALE OF MARKET TREASURY BILLS THROUGH AUCTION No. Securities 2016 Market Treasury Bills A. Three Months Maturity Amount Offered i) Face value 2,726,618 ii) Discounted value 2,681,109 Amount Accepted i) Face value 1,457,485 ii) Discounted value 1,436,402 Weighted Average Yield i) Minimum % p.a. 5.8998 ii) Maximum % p.a. 6.9308 B. Six Months Maturity Amount Offered i) Face value 2,873,573 ii) Discounted value 2,780,740 Amount Accepted i) Face value 1,629,803 ii) Discounted value 1,579,538 Weighted Average Yield i) Minimum % p.a. 5.8910 ii) Maximum % p.a. 6.9511 C. Twelve Months Maturity Amount Offered i) Face value 3,656,106 ii) Discounted value 3,434,144 Amount Accepted i) Face value 1,821,670 ii) Discounted value 1,712,268 Weighted Average Yield i) Minimum % p.a. 5.9101 ii) Maximum % p.a. 6.9710 Note : Amount includes Non-competitive Bids. 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Rs. Million) 2021 (Jul-Mar) 5,287,269 5,223,172 19,826,420 19,549,300 23,757,544 23,222,877 14,913,709 14,486,853 11,269,020 11,085,456 3,824,534 3,772,951 16,231,950 16,005,555 18,866,489 18,448,036 8,811,853 8,554,064 6,985,123 6,871,598 5.7873 5.9910 5.9902 6.7595 6.7575 12.7454 7.6896 13.7490 6.4267 7.4298 4,632,304 4,495,594 1,620,207 1,560,051 120,484 101,275 4,345,673 4,115,593 4,341,280 4,186,810 2,974,251 2,888,666 1,271,001 1,233,895 8,928 8,502 1,705,828 1,613,386 2,608,950 2,516,182 5.8214 6.0109 6.0093 6.8322 7.8526 12.6958 7.4786 13.9498 6.4666 7.7327 1,708,636 1,611,283 86,406 78,882 29,073 15,431 14,210,931 12,653,509 1,795,065 1,668,955 936,611 884,431 47,687 44,979 500 443 4,649,744 4,133,139 528,226 493,106 5.8370 6.0499 71 6.0273 6.0386 13.1500 7.2892 6.5475 13.1500 14.2169 7.7908 Source: State Bank of Pakistan
466. TABLE 5 .8 SALE OF PAKISTAN INVESTMENT BONDS THROUGH AUCTION No. Securities 2016 Pakistan Investment Bonds A. Amount Offered (Face Value) 2,559,922 02 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 03 Years Maturity 1,315,268 05 Years Maturity 982,167 07 Years Maturity 10 Years Maturity 262,487 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Quarterly 15 Years Maturity 20 Years Maturity 30 Years Maturity B. Amount Accepted (Face Value) 963,600 (a) 02 Years (Floater) Quarterly Maturity (PFL) (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum Cut-Off Price (2) Maximum Cut-Off Price (b) 03 Years Maturity. (i) (i) Amount AmountAccepted Accepted 484,812 (ii) (ii)Weighted WeightedAverage AverageYield Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. 6.2948 (2) Maximum % p.a. 8.0647 (c) 03 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual** (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Margin* / Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum bps / Cut-Off Price (2) Maximum bps / Cut-Off Price (d) 03 Years (Floater) Quarterly Maturity (PFL) (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum Cut-Off Price (2) Maximum Cut-Off Price (e) 05 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted 407,561 (ii) Weighted Average Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. 6.8824 (2) Maximum % p.a. 8.9652 (f) 05 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual** (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Margin* / Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum bps / Cut-Off Price (2) Maximum bps / Cut-Off Price (g) 05 Years (Floater) Quarterly Maturity (PFL) (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum Cut-Off Price (2) Maximum Cut-Off Price (h) 7 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. (2) Maximum % p.a. (i) 10 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted 71,227 (ii) Weighted Average Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. 7.9981 (2) Maximum % p.a. 9.4007 2017 2018 2019 2020 1,761,044 348,935 3,156,891 1,039,668 451,788 266,846 235,367 48,467 65,101 976,869 653,189 815,509 706,324 2,743 894,017 101,732 5,000 1,183,510 2,389,228 1,643,278 1,216,358 84,100 48,500 1,445,471 22,925 22,659 - (Rs. Million) 2021 (Jul-Mar) 120,025 337,420 450,548 243,752 1,193,302 577,020 384,124 287,756 107,600 130,050 54,549 50,061 - 86,282 99.5239 99.6467 522,756 6.1444 6.4043 37,915 6.4029 7.4677 418,859 12.0002 13.6770 1,102,152 176,740 7.5239 14.1519 7.2359 9.3344 60,552 624763 45bps 45bps 98.8132 100.4413 193776 98.9923 99.2323 239,114 6.6364 6.8998 14,932 6.8960 8.4795 199,680 9.2500 13.7687 612,849 7.8740 13.7740 34,500 49bps 49bps 136,716 8.2139 9.8296 236,261 100.0341 100.4845 90,500 97.9779 98.0119 - - - - - - 132,147 7.7222 7.9414 72 48,885 7.9359 8.6999 253,195 12.8267 13.6820 332,797 8.4767 13.4548 83,405 8.8570 10.2140 (Contd…)
467. TABLE 5 .8 SALE OF PAKISTAN INVESTMENT BONDS THROUGH AUCTION No. Securities 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Rs. Million) 2021 (Jul-Mar) (j) 10 Years (Floater) Maturity (PFL) Semi-Annual** (i) Amount Accepted 311,776 723,417 107,802 (ii) Margin* / Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum bps / Cut-Off Price 8.5526 70bps 100.1264 (2) Maximum bps / Cut-Off Price 13.6000 75bps 101.0536 (k) 10 Years (Floater) Quarterly Maturity (PFL) (i) Amount Accepted 98,542 (ii) Cut-Off Price (1) Minimum Cut-Off Price 95.2412 (2) Maximum Cut-Off Price 95.2853 (l) 15 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted 16,800 37,000 (ii) Weighted Average Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. 9.6640 9.7020 (2) Maximum % p.a. 10.4540 10.0000 (m) 20 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted 6,113 40,061 (ii) Weighted Average Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. 10.5100 10.3400 (2) Maximum % p.a. 11.7999 10.5624 (n) 30 Years Maturity (i) Amount Accepted (ii) Weighted Average Yield (1) Minimum % p.a. (2) Maximum % p.a. * : The benchmark for coupon rtae is defined in clause 'B' of DMMD Circular No. 9 dated May 07, 2018. Source: State Bank of Pakistan ** : Margins quoted ober benchmark rate in fresh auctions of floating rate PIB (PFL) Note : Amounts include non-competitive bids & short sale accomodation as well. 73
468.                              
469. TABLE 6 .1 NATIONAL SAVINGS SCHEMES (NET INVESTMENT) Rs Million Name of Scheme 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 1 Defence Savings Certificates 29,892.0 12,970.8 16,183.3 2 National Deposit Scheme (0.6) (0.3) (1.0) (0.3) (0.7) 0.1 (0.03) - 3 Khaas Deposit Scheme (1.2) (0.8) (4.3) (2.0) (51.4) (0.2) (0.04) (0.05) 4 Special Savings Certificates (R) (1,932.8) (39,344.6) (51,180.1) 46,401.5 57,619.6 (0.3) 8,053.0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 16,620.0 10,743.6 57,171.0 92,783.1 5 Special Savings Certificates (B) 6 Regular Income Certificates 7 Bahbood Saving Certificates 47,622.7 8 Pensioners' Benefit Account 17,538.9 9 Savings Accounts 283.2 3,859.4 3,807.7 4,684.4 10 Special Savings Accounts (53,463.7) 100,124.9 30,924.1 65,246.6 11 Mahana Amdani Accounts 12 Prize Bonds 13 Postal Life Insurance 14 National Savings Bonds 15 Short Term Saving Certificates 16 Premium Prize Bonds (R) - - 17 Shuhda Welfare Accounts - 206,982.4 337,059.3 233,029.6 36,047.0 1,098.9 150,836.0 (78.5) (0.8) 28,547.1 2015-16 (0.24) 4,963.6 - (20,950.7) 8,726.3 142,088.1 53,963.0 45,927.8 63,761.1 57,432.1 45,395.3 119,573.1 83,380.0 409.4 18,471.2 15,701.9 20,645.1 18,716.7 21,504.4 43,367.4 33,876.0 11,204.2 (72.5) (73.0) (63.0) (55.2) 3,413.0 (768.3) (17,155.7) (46.7) 97,791.6 101,575.7 - - - - 2,529.8 875.5 - (62.6) - 389.1 157.9 - - - - (2,628.9) 77 - (0.50) 16,246.3 4,537.0 123,901.9 (166.2) (0.01) 83,232.3 59,939.2 (132,393.5) 200,770.6 75,884.6 Grand Total 386,075.9 - : Not available Figures in Parenthesis represent negative growth 13,945.7 (16,223.0) 57,058.4 3,969.7 (0.00) - 56,175.4 (3,425.6) - (0.6) (7,265.0) 50,582.1 62,783.3 (0.8) 31,842.5 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) (60.4) (55.0) 40,432.1 (171,109.9) (73.8) (85,942.9) 1,248.4 628.0 (649.0) - - 2,077.4 560.6 761.0 19,254.6 (19,021.6) 2,921.7 2,323.2 2,820.0 11,322.7 11,736.5 42.1 27.0 13.7 - - (137.0) - 207,617.0 203,829.1 306,712.0 372,449.4 (86,284.5) Source : Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS)
470. TABLE 6 .2 MARK UP RATE/PROFIT RATE ON FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S DEBT INSTURMENTS* S. No. Name of Securities 1 Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) Fixed-rate PIBs Remarks 3-years maturity 7.00% 3-years PIB first issued on 20-Aug-20 5-Years maturity 7.50% 5-Years PIB first issued on 15-Oct-20 10-Years maturity 8.00% 10-Years PIB first issued on 10-Dec-20 15-Years maturity 10.50% 15-Years PIB first issued on 16-Apr-20 20-Years maturity 11.00% 20-Years PIB first issued on 19-Sep-19 30-Years maturity Floating-rate PIBs 11.00% 30-Years PIB first issued on 07-Jan-21 2-years maturity 3-years maturity 5-Years maturity 2 Coupon/Profit Rates coupon rate linked to 3M t-bill auction's weightedaverage yield fortnightly coupon reset and quarterly coupon payment; first issued on 05-Nov-20 Quarterly coupon reset and payment; first issued on 22-Oct-20 coupon rate linked to 6M t-bill auction's weightedaverage yield Half-yearly coupon reset and payment. Security available for sale in the primary market, though no acceptance. rental rate is 6-month t-bill's auction weighted-average yield plus margin Cut-off margin is -20 BPs; Security last auctioned on 14-Jan-2021 Tax Status Profit taxable Government Ijara Sukuk 5-year variable rental rate (VRR) Sukuk 5-year fixed rental rate (FRR) Sukuk *: Federal governments debt instuments under SBP management 9.45% Profit taxable Security last auctioned on 14-Janury-21 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 78
471. TABLE 7 .1 (A) PRICE INDICES Groups/ Fiscal Year General Food Apparel Beverages Textile & & Tobacco Footwear A. COMBINED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY GROUPS House Energy Household Fur- Transport Recreation Education Cleaning, Laun- Medicare Rent niture, Equip- & CommuEnterdry & Personal ments etc. nication tainment Appearance (Base Year : 2000-01 = 100) 2000-01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2001-02 103.54 102.50 103.23 102.80 107.76 103.80 103.80 106.30 104.97 102.50 102.37 2002-03 106.75 105.40 106.75 103.80 118.39 105.29 105.29 107.21 109.72 103.37 105.59 2003-04 111.63 111.74 109.69 108.20 120.26 115.72 115.72 106.08 114.19 111.29 106.89 2004-05 121.98 125.69 112.98 120.42 128.46 117.33 120.18 105.86 117.55 115.90 107.94 2005-06 131.64 134.39 117.58 132.36 147.24 124.25 130.99 105.65 125.03 119.49 110.66 2006-07 141.87 148.21 123.70 141.21 156.65 131.64 134.63 105.76 133.82 124.55 120.91 2007-08 158.90 174.36 133.79 154.47 165.17 141.08 138.66 107.86 140.88 138.28 132.23 2008-09 191.90 215.69 152.82 180.90 198.92 159.58 192.55 120.00 165.27 163.17 147.25 2009-10 214.41 242.59 162.49 205.88 226.90 169.76 204.15 127.09 185.74 180.52 157.02 2010-11 244.26 286.15 181.97 220.90 261.67 203.16 180.67 Food & Beverages Clothing Non & & Alcholic Tobaco Foot Beverages wear Housing, Water, Elec.Gas & Fuel 187.04 233.52 139.63 197.14 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) Household Health Transport CommuEquipment & nication Repair Maintenance Groups/ Fiscal Year General 2008-09 117.03 123.13 113.64 111.74 112.01 115.97 108.03 125.15 105.59 114.27 108.15 123.53 117.65 2009-10 128.85 139.05 136.71 119.22 122.14 123.93 114.33 132.79 109.65 127.87 119.39 140.36 133.63 2010-11 146.45 164.10 151.64 133.35 135.27 135.59 123.79 149.01 122.47 134.62 128.17 164.04 152.45 2011-12 162.57 182.20 165.01 153.45 146.17 160.28 137.97 171.39 122.94 145.35 143.83 185.82 181.47 2012-13 174.53 195.18 191.02 175.58 151.34 179.87 156.56 186.43 126.16 169.07 156.69 203.63 199.49 2013-14 189.58 212.74 223.38 198.01 164.60 195.85 167.15 195.15 129.76 183.77 172.57 228.61 210.15 2014-15 198.16 220.20 269.93 213.82 174.93 208.68 176.19 187.22 130.09 190.29 196.40 244.58 221.13 2015-16 203.82 219.42 329.25 224.18 183.90 217.38 182.69 174.25 130.56 194.21 213.02 256.79 228.22 2016-17 212.29 226.59 368.88 233.36 192.91 223.90 201.82 172.93 131.79 196.31 235.72 256.79 240.23 2017-18 220.62 232.95 310.09 244.45 202.50 233.06 218.13 182.18 133.26 200.24 264.79 285.88 254.99 2018-19 236.81 242.62 345.33 260.88 221.07 251.44 235.29 211.50 141.29 Base Year 2015-16=100 Housing, Furnishing Health Transport CommuWater, and Household nication Elec., Gas Equipment and other Maintenance feuls 105.98 102.34 107.97 99.26 100.03 215.90 289.97 302.04 276.48 General Food & Alcoholic Clothing NonBeverages and Alcoholic Tobaco Footwear Beverages Recreation & Culture Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant Miscellan& eous Hotels Educatio Restauants and hotels Misc. goods and services 2016-17 104.81 110.24 110.76 105.29 102.27 110.83 106.04 104.39 2017-18 109.72 117.60 100.83 110.94 111.23 106.00 114.98 108.04 100.65 104.91 123.88 113.15 109.93 2018-19 117.18 112.24 112.26 118.13 120.08 114.00 122.92 125.31 103.27 111.54 134.74 119.10 118.86 2019-20 129.76 129.59 135.80 129.56 128.33 125.70 136.81 138.71 106.84 118.70 141.90 127.78 132.96 2019-20 129.41 128.81 135.40 128.45 128.29 125.04 136.06 141.73 106.82 118.46 141.80 127.02 132.01 2020-21 140.56 146.02 143.10 141.33 135.66 135.16 147.33 139.86 107.41 123.48 143.50 137.82 July-April 147.49 (Contd.) Note: i) On the adoption of each new base year the data for the common periods may not be matched ii) July 2021 to April 2021 commulative indices 81
472. TABLE 7 .1 (B) PRICE INDICES (HEADLINE & CORE INFLATION) Indices Year General Food Headline & Core Inflation Non-Food *Core General Food Non-Food *Core (Base Year : 2000-01 = 100) 2000-01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 4.41 3.56 5.09 4.2 2001-02 103.54 102.50 104.28 103.76 3.54 2.44 4.28 2.0 2002-03 106.75 105.40 107.66 106.43 3.10 2.89 3.24 2.5 2003-04 111.63 111.74 111.55 110.43 4.57 6.01 3.62 3.8 2004-05 121.98 125.69 119.47 117.95 9.28 12.48 7.10 6.8 2005-06 131.64 134.39 129.77 126.82 7.92 6.92 8.63 7.5 2006-07 141.87 148.21 137.58 134.35 7.77 10.28 6.02 5.9 2007-08 158.90 174.36 148.45 145.60 12.00 17.65 7.90 8.4 2008-09 191.90 215.69 175.81 171.18 20.77 23.70 18.45 17.6 2009-10 214.41 242.59 195.36 190.03 11.73 12.47 11.12 11.0 2010-11 244.26 286.15 215.94 208.42 13.92 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 17.95 10.53 9.7 2008-09 117.03 123.13 113.37 111.38 17.03 23.13 13.37 11.38 2009-10 128.85 139.05 122.73 119.79 10.10 12.93 8.26 7.55 2010-11 146.45 164.10 135.87 131.03 13.66 18.02 10.71 9.38 2011-12 162.57 182.20 150.81 144.78 11.01 11.03 11.00 10.49 2012-13 174.53 195.18 162.16 158.62 7.36 7.12 7.53 9.56 2013-14 189.58 212.74 175.69 171.82 8.62 9.00 8.35 8.32 2014-15 198.16 220.20 184.95 183.08 4.53 3.50 5.27 6.55 2015-16 203.82 224.78 191.25 190.71 2.86 2.08 3.41 4.17 2016-17 212.29 233.37 199.65 200.61 4.16 3.82 4.39 5.19 2017-18 220.62 237.59 210.45 212.34 3.92 1.81 5.41 5.85 2018-19 236.81 248.44 229.84 229.21 7.34 4.57 9.21 7.94 2016-17 National CPI 104.81 Food 104.32 CPI Indices (Base Year : 2015-16 = 100) Urban Rural Non-food Core Food Non-food 105.13 106.10 105.11 104.48 Core 105.60 2017-18 109.72 108.33 111.25 112.27 107.57 110.29 111.05 2018-19 117.18 113.35 120.70 120.34 112.68 118.74 118.55 2019-20 129.76 128.74 130.72 129.38 130.62 128.41 128.83 2019-20 129.41 127.95 130.72 128.88 129.84 128.24 128.13 2020-21 140.56 143.67 137.90 2016-17 National CPI 4.81 Food 4.32 137.41 136.39 147.35 137.16 Growth (%) (Base Year : 2015-16 = 100) Urban Rural Non-food Core Food Non-food 5.13 6.10 5.11 4.48 2017-18 4.68 3.84 5.82 5.82 2.34 5.56 5.16 2018-19 6.80 4.63 8.49 7.19 4.75 7.66 6.75 2019-20 10.74 13.58 8.30 7.51 15.92 8.14 8.67 11.22 13.97 8.97 7.75 15.92 8.14 8.67 2020-21 8.62 12.29 5.12 5.83 13.49 6.96 *: Core Inflation is defined as overall inflation adjusted for food and energy. Note: On the adoption of each new base year the data for the common periods may not be matched 7.63 July-April Core 5.60 July-April 2019-20 82
473. TABLE 7 .1 (C) PRICES INDICES Groups/ Fiscal Year General Food B. Wholesale Price Index by Groups Raw Fuel, Lighting ManufacMaterials & Lubricants tures (Base Year : 2000-01 = 100) Building Materials Sensitive Price Indicator GDP Deflator 2000-01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 108.02 2001-02 102.01 101.95 100.31 103.14 101.87 101.10 103.37 110.71 2002-03 107.77 105.62 115.51 115.95 103.67 102.90 107.06 115.61 2003-04 116.29 112.99 135.12 119.23 111.83 126.48 114.38 124.55 2004-05 124.14 125.03 110.44 138.01 113.05 143.79 127.59 133.30 2005-06 136.68 133.78 121.93 174.57 116.27 144.18 136.56 100.00 2006-07 146.17 145.67 138.85 184.10 119.91 151.93 151.35 107.28 2007-08 170.15 173.27 156.57 223.34 128.33 177.18 176.78 121.13 2008-09 201.10 213.54 184.45 258.96 140.67 213.00 218.16 146.18 2009-10 226.49 239.01 238.11 296.48 154.94 201.40 247.22 161.89 2010-11 279.30 285.93 374.44 348.19 197.39 226.63 292.16 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) Agriculture Ores & Food Product, Other Metal Sensitive Forestry & Minerals, Beverages & Transportable Products Price IndiFishery Materials Tobacco, Goods Machinery & cator Product electricity Textiles Appreal Equipment gas & water Leather Products 193.52 Groups/ Fiscal Year General GDP Deflator 2008-09 118.93 119.10 125.31 114.57 125.21 109.07 121.14 146.18 2009-10 135.40 142.02 139.76 135.02 135.41 111.10 136.80 161.89 2010-11 164.17 183.20 159.13 166.49 155.77 128.10 159.48 193.50 2011-12 181.28 185.03 182.74 176.07 194.64 152.55 170.77 204.45 2012-13 194.61 198.23 211.17 188.39 203.93 159.29 184.04 219.00 2013-14 210.48 219.00 240.37 200.70 214.59 168.31 201.15 235.18 2014-15 209.85 220.56 245.47 206.76 197.12 172.72 205.18 245.40 2015-16 207.65 226.43 245.91 213.58 171.21 171.46 207.35 246.49 2016-17 216.02 248.00 242.08 225.59 168.07 174.40 210.59 256.29 2017-18 223.52 256.02 242.99 229.90 198.27 184.00 212.44 262.33 2018-19 250.28 276.64 279.87 254.78 General Agriculture Ores/Miner Forestry & als, Elec., Fishery gas & water 220.88 190.87 223.34 284.88 Base Year 2015-16=100 Food Textiles Leather Other Metal Sensitive Products Apparels Products Tranportable Product Price Beverages & Goods Machinery Indicator Tobacco & Equipment 103.82 109.42 101.83 101.69 103.22 107.62 GDP Deflator 2016-17 104.45 108.15 99.32 Food, Beverages Tobacco, Textiles, Leather 105.63 2017-18 109.97 113.34 100.88 107.08 104.00 115.64 101.40 115.52 106.06 110.28 262.33 2018-19 127.55 124.35 127.07 119.30 112.45 133.41 107.72 147.71 115.26 115.92 284.88 2019-20 140.63 137.80 163.40 131.68 126.74 141.64 113.65 147.95 131.83 131.85 313.76 256.29 July-April 2019-20 2020-21 141.54 151.97 137.37 153.44 163.85 167.78 130.43 147.13 125.40 145.26 141.42 152.67 112.60 119.26 153.95 149.15 130.93 150.36 131.29 313.76 148.17 344.38 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Note: On the adoption of each new base year the data for the common periods may not be matched 83
474. TABLE 7 .2 MONTHLY PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN CPI, WPI AND SPI (Percent) Months 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2016-17 2017-18 Base Year 2007-08=100 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May A. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (C.P.I) Jul Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2020-21 Base Year 2015-16=100 1.51 2.07 1.27 -0.25 2.02 1.70 0.43 1.34 0.34 0.94 - 0.57 1.51 1.83 2.50 1.81 2.19 1.40 0.90 1.16 0.33 0.24 -0.30 0.19 0.21 -0.36 0.15 -0.31 1.64 0.63 0.80 0.17 2.03 1.03 0.79 -0.29 0.35 -0.10 0.20 0.63 -0.06 0.42 0.69 -0.03 0.77 1.54 1.39 0.60 0.98 1.44 0.38 1.97 0.21 0.49 0.81 0.75 2.33 0.93 1.09 2.12 1.82 1.70 -0.32 1.32 0.99 0.29 -0.39 1.27 -0.51 0.59 0.21 0.37 0.11 0.47 0.66 -0.12 1.34 0.82 -0.24 -0.73 -0.30 -0.70 0.23 -1.32 -1.01 -0.57 -0.68 -0.10 -0.41 -0.58 -0.03 -0.30 -0.34 -0.68 0.24 2.59 1.21 1.54 1.67 0.49 0.08 0.21 0.18 0.03 1.00 0.43 0.08 0.25 1.97 -0.21 1.37 0.38 -0.56 0.30 -0.34 -0.32 -0.92 -0.25 0.28 -0.31 0.64 0.48 -0.26 0.87 -1.04 1.80 0.36 1.24 1.40 1.17 0.41 0.96 0.23 0.15 0.84 0.31 1.42 1.05 0.22 2.00 0.04 0.36 1.03 1.00 1.83 1.40 1.83 1.09 1.70 1.32 1.55 1.40 1.82 1.26 0.72 1.08 0.73 -0.84 -0.07 0.13 0.23 1.15 0.51 -0.26 0.76 -0.21 0.01 0.51 0.78 -0.52 0.46 0.60 0.32 0.87 0.36 0.96 0.04 0.72 0.61 0.62 0.64 -0.41 0.56 0.36 0.17 0.83 0.48 0.82 Base Year 2015-16=100 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.59 1.41 1.98 2.15 - - - - - - - - - - - -0.46 0.20 -0.31 1.46 0.81 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.32 0.42 -0.08 0.75 1.26 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.79 0.89 2.23 1.59 1.27 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.47 0.63 -0.09 1.00 0.64 - - - - - - - - - - - -0.59 0.05 -0.32 -0.37 -0.35 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.82 0.18 0.43 1.68 -0.16 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.51 -0.15 0.86 -1.09 2.27 - - - - - - - - - - - 1.01 0.28 1.87 0.13 0.27 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.96 1.37 0.83 -0.68 1.34 0.53 0.68 0.30 - - - - - - - - - - - -0.32 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.21 Jul - - - - - - - - - - - 0.54 1.67 1.60 3.02 Aug - - - - - - - - - - - -0.21 0.07 -0.30 1.91 0.35 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.57 1.10 0.04 0.79 1.95 - - - - - - - - - - - 1.15 1.40 1.96 2.17 2.35 Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr RURAL PRICE INDEX (R.P.I) May 2019-20 1.75 URBAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (U.C.P.I) Jun 2018-19 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.48 0.72 -0.17 1.86 1.09 - - - - - - - - - - -0.56 -0.14 -0.29 -0.30 -1.17 - - - - - - - - - - - -0.14 -0.07 -0.02 2.41 -0.29 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.45 -0.45 0.87 -0.97 1.12 - - - - - - - - - - - 1.12 0.13 2.19 -0.10 0.51 - - - - - - - - - - - 0.36 0.64 0.58 -1.08 0.57 - - 0.35 0.47 0.34 - - - - - - - Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May B. WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX (W.P.I.) - Jun Jul Jun Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun - - - - - -0.82 - - - - - 0.12 1.01 0.70 1.02 Base Year 2015-16=100 1.75 1.66 -0.40 0.36 1.65 0.54 -0.38 2.34 -0.24 2.41 -0.70 3.69 3.05 5.41 2.47 1.91 0.55 1.02 2.65 -0.48 -0.49 -0.03 0.33 0.79 0.06 0.19 0.55 1.25 1.27 0.49 0.81 1.70 0.25 0.35 0.71 0.15 -0.46 -0.53 0.06 -1.52 -0.40 0.28 -1.51 0.07 1.05 -1.08 0.93 1.74 0.37 0.11 1.13 -0.31 0.53 -0.04 0.61 4.17 -0.09 0.88 4.40 2.03 2.88 - -3.24 1.83 2.54 -0.53 -0.37 0.25 -0.99 0.01 -0.21 0.36 0.70 0.54 1.05 1.04 -0.82 -0.94 -0.32 0.18 1.97 -1.33 0.43 -0.99 -1.89 -0.65 -0.14 0.36 -0.88 0.20 0.49 -1.34 -0.30 0.34 -0.04 3.26 1.91 2.26 1.25 0.53 -1.03 -0.53 0.51 1.81 -0.21 0.83 2.60 -0.82 1.83 2.50 0.95 0.94 1.96 0.56 0.34 -0.14 -1.09 -0.59 0.47 -0.15 0.90 0.81 0.41 1.62 -0.80 2.20 0.44 1.51 3.31 0.67 0.26 0.34 0.01 -0.40 0.66 0.25 1.70 0.42 -0.08 2.23 -0.88 3.72 -0.36 1.68 1.95 2.45 1.80 0.77 0.10 0.86 1.30 0.89 1.27 2.33 0.43 1.28 1.76 -2.04 1.31 1.15 -0.96 2.15 -0.43 -0.08 1.10 0.55 -0.20 1.28 1.43 -0.15 2.02 1.47 -2.08 1.23 0.17 0.57 -0.05 1.00 1.37 1.18 Base Year 2007-08=100 1.38 -0.46 1.48 0.33 -0.08 C. SENSITIVE PRICE INDEX (S.P.I.) Sep Base Year 2007-08=100 1.90 Jul Aug - - May Aug 0.72 0.34 0.69 Base Year 2015-16=100 2.46 0.25 -0.32 Base Year 2015-16=100 2.77 2.26 2.38 0.51 2.27 1.95 0.34 1.32 -0.45 1.17 0.00 1.39 1.03 3.03 2.38 2.28 2.26 0.83 1.29 1.54 0.83 -0.19 0.23 0.54 0.22 -0.25 1.06 -0.20 2.72 0.92 0.39 0.66 5.11 1.34 1.25 0.06 0.24 0.46 0.11 2.13 -0.06 0.21 2.06 -0.42 1.87 2.09 1.82 0.20 1.76 0.76 -0.45 1.17 -0.03 1.18 0.67 0.86 1.15 0.49 0.94 2.27 2.66 3.36 -0.69 1.97 3.40 0.74 0.03 3.22 -1.13 1.00 0.33 0.34 0.26 0.68 0.20 -0.69 3.71 1.10 -1.19 -0.18 -1.27 -2.01 0.05 -2.54 -1.52 -0.71 -0.78 -0.67 0.02 -1.25 -0.88 -0.25 -1.97 -2.71 -0.82 -2.38 3.28 0.07 1.00 1.92 -2.54 -0.87 -0.67 -0.80 -1.04 0.61 -1.00 -1.52 0.36 0.45 1.03 0.45 -1.33 -0.12 0.07 -0.09 -0.99 -0.52 0.21 -1.21 1.48 0.42 -1.16 2.45 -0.79 3.14 0.80 1.14 0.66 1.49 0.78 2.15 0.00 -0.15 1.79 -0.60 1.56 2.75 -0.91 2.13 -0.31 5.70 0.41 0.89 0.77 0.31 1.67 -0.29 0.07 0.39 -0.12 -0.91 0.45 0.89 -0.69 0.86 0.48 -1.77 1.43 -0.24 -0.66 -0.14 0.07 -1.51 1.31 -0.96 -0.89 -0.15 1.24 -0.38 0.71 0.58 2.15 1.41 0.56 -0.08 1.39 2.45 1.11 0.99 1.12 0.14 1.78 1.57 0.00 1.45 0.90 1.37 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Note: On the adoption of each new base year the data for the common periods may not be matched 84
475. TABLE 7 .3 (A) PRICE INDICES BY CONSUMER INCOME GROUPS Income Group/ Fiscal Year All Income Groups Upto Rs 3000 Rs 3001 to 5000 Base Year 2000-01 = 100 Rs 5001 to 12000 Above Rs 12,000 2000-01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2001-02 103.54 102.97 104.88 103.44 103.64 2002-03 106.75 105.95 106.70 106.68 106.83 2003-04 111.63 111.61 112.18 111.72 111.39 2004-05 121.98 123.01 123.16 122.26 121.35 2005-06 131.64 132.47 132.44 131.51 131.45 2006-07 141.87 143.52 143.42 142.05 141.19 2007-08 158.90 163.98 163.64 160.24 156.32 2008-09 191.90 200.20 199.83 194.91 186.86 2009-10 214.41 224.33 223.81 218.07 208.34 2010-11 244.26 258.35 257.12 249.10 236.38 Spliced with Base Year 2007-08 = 100 Income Group/ All Income Upto Rs 8001 to Rs 12000 to Rs 18001 to Above Fiscal Year Groups Rs 8000 12000 18000 35000 Rs 35,000 2008-09 117.03 117.95 117.77 118.11 117.61 116.83 2009-10 128.85 130.39 130.19 130.61 129.77 128.25 2010-11 146.45 149.04 148.56 147.59 148.91 145.34 2011-12 162.57 164.00 164.37 163.06 165.01 162.09 2012-13 174.53 176.93 178.55 176.83 176.28 172.48 2013-14 189.58 192.57 193.69 193.00 192.26 186.72 2014-15 198.16 199.60 201.15 201.33 200.80 195.76 2015-16 203.82 204.45 206.72 206.14 206.80 201.65 2016-17 212.29 212.28 214.84 214.22 215.25 210.42 2017-18 220.62 218.23 221.44 221.15 222.70 220.09 2018-19 236.81 230.11 234.06 234.21 238.88 239.16 Base Year 2015-16=100 Consumption Group/ Fiscal Year 2016-17 Urban Combined (Upto Rs. 17,732) (Rs. 17,733 to 22,888) (Rs. 22,889 to 29,517) (Rs. 29,518 to 44,175) (Above Rs. 44,175) 104.83 104.21 104.38 104.49 104.60 105.05 2017-18 110.18 108.00 108.52 108.90 109.39 110.98 2018-19 117.99 113.92 115.00 115.57 116.31 119.90 2019-20 129.99 126.97 127.47 129.29 129.29 131.60 Jul-April 2019-20 129.70 126.54 127.12 128.93 128.96 131.34 2020-21 141.05 142.35 141.44 141.19 140.43 140.85 Rural Combined (Upto Rs. 17,732) (Rs. 17,733 to 22,888) (Rs. 22,889 to 29,517) (Rs. 29,518 to 44,175) (Above Rs. 44,175) 2016-17 104.77 104.54 104.66 104.69 104.84 104.95 2017-18 109.04 108.25 108.54 108.77 109.11 109.50 2018-19 115.95 114.33 114.94 115.31 115.83 118.02 2019-20 129.42 129.30 129.08 128.87 128.85 130.65 2019-20 128.97 128.69 128.56 128.41 128.42 130.30 2020-21 141.85 143.98 142.77 141.69 140.82 141.24 July-April Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Note: On the adoption of each new base year the data for the common periods may not be matched 85
476. TABLE 7 .3 (B) ANNUAL CHANGES IN PRICE INDICES AND GDP DEFLATOR Consumer Price Index Fiscal Year National Wholesale Price Index Urban Rural Sensitive Price Indicator Annual GDP Deflator Base Year 2000-01 = 100 1990-91 12.66 - - 11.73 12.59 - 1991-92 10.58 - - 9.84 10.54 10.07 1992-93 9.83 - - 7.36 10.71 8.89 1993-94 11.27 - - 16.40 11.79 12.47 1994-95 13.02 - - 16.00 15.01 13.78 1995-96 10.79 - - 11.10 10.71 8.28 1996-97 11.80 - - 13.01 12.45 14.63 1997-98 7.81 - - 6.58 7.35 6.55 1998-99 5.74 - - 6.35 6.44 5.85 1999-00 3.58 - - 1.77 1.83 2.78 2000-01 4.41 - - 6.21 4.84 6.72 2001-02 3.54 - - 2.08 3.37 2.49 2002-03 3.10 - - 5.57 3.58 4.42 2003-04 4.57 - - 7.91 6.83 7.74 2004-05 9.28 - - 6.75 11.55 7.02 2005-06 7.92 - - 10.10 7.02 10.49 2006-07 7.77 - - 6.94 10.82 7.28 2007-08 12.00 - - 16.64 16.81 12.91 2008-09 20.77 - - 18.19 23.41 20.68 2009-10 11.73 - - 12.63 13.32 10.75 2010-11 13.92 - - 23.32 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 18.18 19.54 2008-09 17.03 - - 18.93 21.14 20.68 2009-10 10.10 - - 13.85 12.93 10.75 2010-11 13.66 - - 21.25 16.57 19.52 2011-12 11.01 - - 10.42 7.08 5.66 2012-13 7.36 - - 7.35 7.77 7.12 2013-14 8.62 - - 8.15 9.30 7.39 2014-15 4.53 - - -0.30 1.75 4.34 2015-16 2.86 - - -1.05 1.31 0.45 2016-17 4.16 - - 4.04 1.57 3.97 2017-18 3.92 - - 3.50 0.88 2.36 2018-19 7.34 - - 11.97 (Base Year : 2015-16 = 100) 5.15 8.60 2016-17 4.81 4.83 4.77 4.48 7.62 3.97 2017-18 4.68 5.10 4.08 5.27 2.47 2.36 2018-19 6.80 7.09 6.34 15.99 5.11 8.60 2019-20 10.74 10.17 11.62 10.24 13.74 10.14 2019-20 11.22 10.73 11.98 12.15 14.26 10.14 2020-21 8.62 7.72 9.99 7.36 12.86 9.76 July-April Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 86
477. TABLE 7 .4 AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Fiscal Year (Price in Rs.) (Weight in Kg.) Wheat Wheat Basmati* Moong Gram Beef Chicken Mutton Eggs Hen Potato Dry Tomato (Av.Qlty) Flour Rice Pulse Pulse (Cow/ (Farm) (Goat) (Farm) (Av.Qlty) Onion (Av.Qlty) (Av.Qlty) (Broken (Washed) (Av.Qlty) Buffalo (Av.Qlty) Doz. (Av.Qlty) with bone) Base Year 2000-01 = 100 2000-01 8.67 9.80 15.35 30.30 29.52 56.01 50.65 109.38 26.35 9.74 10.72 17.24 2001-02 8.29 9.67 15.49 34.36 34.89 55.19 52.04 111.53 28.57 11.43 9.59 17.12 2002-03 8.73 10.14 18.07 30.46 31.13 61.21 54.01 124.95 30.69 9.43 8.70 13.30 2003-04 10.25 11.71 19.04 27.98 24.17 75.45 57.50 154.31 30.03 8.58 11.09 19.10 2004-05 11.68 13.28 20.19 31.66 29.35 94.83 66.43 185.19 37.45 14.94 13.82 25.03 2005-06 11.55 13.06 20.16 47.28 31.12 106.84 66.08 202.10 35.07 18.18 12.05 19.48 2006-07 11.96 13.64 23.11 56.53 41.38 117.87 74.16 224.07 38.31 17.22 20.95 27.43 2007-08 16.44 18.07 37.77 52.67 44.78 123.30 83.39 236.49 49.45 15.22 16.28 28.50 2008-09 23.87 25.64 47.12 50.10 57.15 143.82 103.12 262.03 58.80 20.35 25.77 29.67 2009-10 25.40 28.77 43.92 78.02 53.34 174.49 126.22 2010-11 25.79 29.56 50.32 136.49 2008-09 24.07 25.53 47.12 2009-10 25.51 28.73 43.92 2010-11 25.98 29.41 2011-12 26.74 30.26 2012-13 30.61 2013-14 2014-15 316.52 65.67 23.74 25.56 27.72 70.25 215.42 130.98 411.48 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 72.78 27.59 33.27 44.86 50.10 57.15 143.82 103.13 262.03 58.80 20.36 25.77 29.70 78.02 53.34 174.49 126.22 316.52 65.67 23.74 25.56 27.72 50.32 136.49 70.25 215.42 130.98 411.48 72.78 27.58 33.28 44.86 60.36 127.90 83.32 252.41 150.07 482.04 86.95 25.33 32.24 46.46 34.53 69.01 115.95 99.70 268.38 143.93 517.83 92.02 26.09 36.71 49.80 37.02 40.98 74.09 137.64 74.77 283.99 161.40 559.49 97.61 42.79 41.63 58.36 34.56 39.28 72.38 161.94 79.33 301.55 153.64 592.56 98.71 42.49 35.80 55.05 2015-16 33.92 38.57 63.00 160.30 123.53 316.37 151.95 627.94 89.84 25.75 44.29 49.14 2016-17 33.77 37.99 63.90 139.93 149.85 327.52 145.88 662.65 101.86 34.09 30.08 51.82 2017-18 33.11 37.45 72.07 118.15 118.76 348.64 158.87 733.68 103.17 33.89 48.59 59.62 2018-19 34.95 39.36 76.82 128.64 123.10 376.47 163.06 783.88 Base Year 2015-16=100 102.93 27.21 36.91 64.85 - 897.48 81.92 213.44 142.21 431.29 169.73 896.00 106.71 44.57 59.90 56.83 2019-20 - 888.86 81.38 202.09 141.69 427.06 163.49 887.31 107.13 42.32 65.50 64.31 2020-21 - 987.54 89.91 233.85 142.91 474.40 199.51 988.38 154.08 54.67 46.18 2019-20 July-April 70.07 (Contd.) Note: i) On the adoption of each new base year the data for the common periods may not be matched ii) In the new base year 2015-16, dissemination of prices started w.e.f July, 2019 87
478. TABLE 7 .4 (A) AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Fiscal Year Mustard Oil (Mill) Vegetable Ghee (Loose) Rock Salt (Powder) Red Chilies (Av.Qlty) Sugar (Open Market) Gur (Sup. Qlty) Milk Fresh Ltr. (Price in Rs.) (Weight in Kg.) Tea in* Packet (Sup.Qlty) 250 grams Base Year 2000-01 = 100 2000-01 56.92 44.82 3.43 66.75 27.11 26.31 18.23 53.73 2001-02 59.01 49.20 3.19 78.34 22.87 23.12 17.92 57.00 2002-03 60.80 55.25 3.21 75.87 20.77 20.45 18.35 61.50 2003-04 63.51 59.84 3.22 73.80 19.01 19.79 19.21 64.68 2004-05 65.63 59.60 3.50 76.64 23.45 23.98 21.28 61.99 2005-06 66.70 58.95 3.94 70.79 31.16 35.90 23.90 62.62 2006-07 76.71 70.81 4.68 94.66 31.85 39.26 26.72 68.39 2007-08 119.71 108.43 5.12 147.84 27.92 32.87 30.45 68.28 2008-09 142.25 110.63 6.08 145.32 38.72 43.65 36.62 97.94 2009-10 133.56 112.04 6.69 152.38 57.11 70.74 42.32 120.77 2010-11 156.56 150.31 7.23 83.86 50.10 139.17 2008-09 142.25 110.62 6.09 145.32 38.72 43.65 36.62 88.89 2009-10 133.55 112.04 6.69 152.38 57.11 70.74 42.32 108.98 2010-11 156.56 150.31 7.28 230.27 72.72 83.86 50.10 123.19 2011-12 178.29 166.26 8.13 299.42 60.99 78.27 58.17 135.15 2012-13 185.88 160.73 8.74 254.06 53.25 74.50 65.24 146.01 2013-14 184.48 160.57 9.37 221.33 53.82 82.83 69.86 154.58 2014-15 183.08 151.90 9.98 261.42 57.14 83.95 76.21 133.80 2015-16 179.67 138.35 10.43 274.03 62.60 89.28 78.24 172.76 2016-17 181.15 143.34 10.64 272.60 64.94 88.20 80.59 177.24 2017-18 183.83 146.22 11.10 266.58 53.70 81.49 82.75 189.44 2018-19 195.43 161.85 12.29 335.21 59.84 Base Year 2015-16=100 85.75 86.74 210.27 2019-20 208.50 225.75 29.90 157.44 76.60 115.20 93.43 225.54 2019-20 206.49 221.63 29.86 152.03 75.72 113.70 92.85 224.79 2020-21 246.75 263.58 30.01 307.51 93.50 128.39 104.41 230.20 230.27 72.72 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) July-April (Contd.) *: Tea packet prices in Bases year 2007-08=100 is quoted of 200 grams packet price. *: Tea packet prices in Bases year 2015-16=100 is quoted of 190 grams packet price. In the new base year 2015-16, prices are disseminated of prices started w.e.f July, 2019. 88
479. TABLE 7 .4 (B) AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Fiscal Year Cigarettes Pkt Coarse Latha Mtr. Voil Printed Mtr. Shoes Firewood Match Gents (Kikar/ Box (40/ Concord Babul) 50 Sticks) Bata 40 Kgs. Each Base Year 2000-01 = 100 Washing Soap 707/555 Cake (Rs/unit) Lifebuoy Soap Cake 2000-01 5.01 24.11 33.04 399.00 104.04 0.50 6.90 9.50 2001-02 5.82 26.81 33.30 399.00 99.30 0.51 7.37 10.02 2002-03 6.06 26.84 33.74 428.17 104.20 0.51 7.48 11.00 2003-04 6.08 28.80 34.52 499.00 118.40 0.51 7.48 10.82 2004-05 6.90 32.08 36.13 492.33 135.96 0.53 7.47 14.00 2005-06 7.23 34.26 36.74 399.00 166.03 0.62 7.73 13.93 2006-07 7.98 35.05 37.90 429.00 191.72 0.71 8.13 14.18 2007-08 8.38 39.04 40.29 499.00 220.74 0.92 9.78 17.38 2008-09 9.11 44.69 46.02 499.00 264.12 1.00 12.51 21.59 2009-10 11.55 47.25 48.91 499.00 296.64 1.00 12.87 22.00 2010-11 13.72 57.52 56.67 1.00 15.14 25.47 2008-09 18.19 135.35 59.29 499.00 264.12 1.00 12.51 21.59 2009-10 23.11 135.69 63.31 499.00 296.64 1.00 12.87 22.00 2010-11 27.44 148.57 72.35 499.00 354.29 1.00 15.14 25.47 2011-12 29.10 111.21 88.07 499.00 441.74 1.06 18.39 30.50 2012-13 32.34 151.14 101.61 549.00 491.55 1.10 21.00 32.29 2013-14 38.45 176.59 112.40 671.92 538.12 1.42 23.34 35.86 2014-15 45.85 200.22 122.90 699.00 566.85 1.74 24.33 36.06 2015-16 57.75 203.29 123.29 699.00 593.42 1.99 24.74 36.16 2016-17 64.85 206.13 124.12 699.00 604.81 2.14 25.74 38.06 2017-18 50.86 215.80 127.34 699.00 621.24 2.24 26.39 40.67 2018-19 57.29 268.31 154.69 699.00 566.61 Base Year 2015-16=100 2.42 36.35 46.66 2019-20 81.24 306.67 146.50 899.00 668.45 2.51 45.13 44.66 2019-20 81.05 303.02 145.68 899.00 663.81 2.49 44.51 44.48 2020-21 83.41 355.22 164.46 980.12 713.54 3.06 52.85 499.00 354.29 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) July-April Note: Prices of Long Cloth and Georgerette have been quoted in base year 2007-08 and 2015-16 instead of prices of Coarse Latha and Voil Printed in previous base year. In the new base year 2015-16, dissemination of prices started w.e.f July, 2019. 89 46.52 (Contd.)
480. TABLE 7 .4 (C) AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Cooked Beef Plate Cooked Dal Plate 2000-01 14.10 18.53 11.87 11.56 36.97 48.38 28.07 155.64 153.43 2001-02 14.00 18.58 12.42 11.51 38.41 44.25 39.93 170.97 169.24 2002-03 13.30 18.88 13.09 12.23 38.41 37.56 34.11 199.68 196.77 2003-04 12.69 20.95 13.86 13.06 35.40 35.57 32.82 203.98 200.28 2004-05 12.07 24.21 14.71 15.41 43.11 38.52 44.22 204.99 204.15 2005-06 11.43 26.07 15.65 16.05 45.01 52.91 58.09 204.41 203.63 2006-07 11.95 29.80 17.84 17.59 44.54 70.51 61.81 224.48 224.06 2007-08 12.68 33.26 20.46 29.32 71.41 71.36 46.18 316.32 312.97 2008-09 14.83 40.18 25.59 39.35 122.16 77.31 41.64 371.38 356.44 2009-10 19.79 44.82 28.07 34.43 121.92 129.88 131.52 359.05 356.58 2010-11 24.07 52.88 33.65 38.87 117.72 163.16 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 198.92 435.88 435.98 2008-09 112.96 40.18 25.59 39.35 122.16 77.31 41.68 371.38 356.44 2009-10 118.78 44.82 28.07 34.43 121.92 129.88 131.52 359.05 356.58 2010-11 124.75 52.88 33.65 38.87 117.72 163.16 198.92 435.88 435.98 2011-12 139.93 60.54 37.27 45.68 102.64 145.82 107.89 502.66 501.91 2012-13 151.82 68.55 40.16 49.90 100.39 132.72 123.18 535.55 519.06 2013-14 162.69 77.84 45.46 54.05 120.49 134.21 129.71 538.73 511.77 2014-15 165.49 82.86 48.41 51.99 135.32 163.82 139.00 513.55 495.00 2015-16 166.95 87.19 52.62 47.16 146.36 238.59 200.32 457.61 448.92 2016-17 167.79 92.56 56.70 48.71 140.36 223.70 273.46 460.79 452.68 2017-18 168.98 101.49 58.83 51.53 118.44 164.91 166.10 471.26 464.46 2018-19 173.40 113.60 64.17 54.59 107.55 152.18 Base Year 2015-16=100 157.72 497.94 483.96 2019-20 185.73 133.64 68.75 62.54 141.16 211.13 280.43 1199.22 586.30 2019-20 184.80 132.89 68.22 61.57 137.12 204.25 286.08 1184.19 575.85 2020-21 199.13 147.30 74.97 70.80 156.23 249.25 225.25 1343.50 674.86 Fiscal Year Rice Masoor Mash Irri-6 Pulse Pulse Kg Kg Kg Base Year 2000-01 = 100 Garlic Kg Cooking Oil Dalda 2.5 Ltr (Rs/unit) Vegetable Ghee 2.5 Kg Electric Bulb (60-W) July-April (Contd.) Note: Prices of Energy Saver (14-volts) have been quoted in new base year 2007-08 and 2015-16 instead of Electric Bulb (60 volts) prices in previous base year. * : The unit of cooking oil Dalda has changed from 2.5 Ltr. to 5 Ltr. in base year 2015-16 In the new base year 2015-16, dissemination of prices started w.e.f July, 2019. 90
481. TABLE 7 .4 (D) AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS Fiscal Year Curd Kg Tea Prepared Cup Banana Doz. Lawn Shirting Shoes Hussain Hussain Lady Mtr. Mtr. Bata Base Year 2000-01 = 100 Chappal Gents Spang Bread Plain M.Size (Rs/Unit) Milk Powder Nido 500 grams 2000-01 22.43 4.03 22.11 77.77 59.10 319.00 79.00 11.17 114.03 2001-02 21.90 4.18 22.14 70.79 55.17 319.00 79.00 11.14 116.00 2002-03 23.35 4.46 21.96 69.92 55.59 342.23 79.00 11.16 88.00 2003-04 23.33 4.72 23.01 69.96 56.78 364.00 79.00 11.77 94.75 2004-05 25.75 5.12 25.11 72.61 59.94 252.33 86.53 13.25 102.62 2005-06 28.38 5.77 28.18 76.42 62.36 299.00 89.00 14.23 108.50 2006-07 31.34 6.31 32.51 79.69 65.45 299.00 92.00 15.34 121.47 2007-08 35.76 6.91 35.43 83.45 71.01 299.00 101.50 18.43 145.93 2008-09 43.38 8.41 39.62 91.00 78.38 372.33 127.33 24.17 168.48 2009-10 49.74 10.07 40.94 96.46 81.55 379.00 129.00 26.42 183.31 2010-11 58.41 12.66 49.15 110.53 88.80 397.33 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 138.17 28.24 204.38 2008-09 43.38 8.41 39.62 126.32 78.38 372.33 129.00 24.17 168.48 2009-10 49.74 10.07 40.94 137.48 81.55 379.00 129.00 26.42 183.31 2010-11 58.41 12.66 49.16 150.31 88.80 397.33 139.00 28.24 204.38 2011-12 68.19 14.25 65.10 166.26 108.37 399.00 152.08 31.23 247.85 2012-13 75.74 15.30 68.83 166.52 124.22 449.00 179.00 34.23 289.78 2013-14 81.88 16.97 70.63 198.05 144.91 499.00 179.00 39.17 310.50 2014-15 89.48 18.70 76.77 239.61 157.72 499.00 179.00 40.78 251.69 2015-16 92.10 19.36 75.70 244.90 162.32 500.61 179.02 40.82 372.70 2016-17 94.66 20.28 78.87 251.98 164.85 502.39 179.09 41.11 378.43 2017-18 99.15 21.23 81.04 260.65 171.58 524.53 183.65 42.07 379.46 2018-19 101.24 22.28 77.11 316.04 206.01 599.00 Base Year 2015-16=100 199.00 44.10 401.08 2019-20 108.22 25.81 78.82 355.16 201.32 599.00 199.00 47.82 448.85 2019-20 107.79 25.68 73.59 353.94 199.64 599.00 199.00 47.36 445.68 2020-21 120.53 28.18 79.15 384.70 230.75 599.00 212.84 54.92 476.15 (Contd.) July-April * : The unit has changed from 500 gms to 400 gms in base year 2000-01 * : The unit has changed from 500 gms to 390 gms in base year 2015-16 In the new base year 2015-16, dissemination of prices started w.e.f July, 2019. 91
482. TABLE 7 .4 (E) AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL ITEMS (Average of 17 Centers) Fiscal Year Kerosene (per ltr.) Gas Charges (100 cf)* Elect Petrol Charges Super (upto (per ltr.) 50 units) Base Year 2000-01 = 100 Tele Local Call Charges (per Call) 2000-01 16.84 248.55 1.46 29.34 2.22 2001-02 18.58 259.26 2.18 31.60 2.31 2002-03 22.48 259.35 2.45 33.08 2.31 2003-04 24.95 79.45 2.54 33.69 2.31 2004-05 29.11 84.60 2.47 40.74 2.31 2005-06 36.19 88.92 2.14 55.12 2.31 2006-07 39.09 99.79 2.49 56.00 2.31 43.44 57.83 2.31 2007-08 97.17 2.76 2008-09 66.79 96.91 3.18 67.68 2.38 2009-10 72.65 106.81 3.64 67.56 2.62 2010-11 84.88 115.40 4.32 75.70 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 3.59 2008-09 66.79 94.57 1.40 67.68 2.38 2009-10 72.65 103.87 1.53 67.56 2.62 2010-11 84.89 110.20 1.84 75.70 3.59 2011-12 104.84 132.73 1.89 92.93 3.59 2012-13 116.07 119.58 2.00 101.26 3.74 2013-14 123.45 124.18 2.00 110.99 3.94 2014-15 100.94 124.18 2.00 88.58 3.94 2015-16 80.62 127.79 2.00 72.31 3.94 2016-17 77.48 128.66 2.00 69.09 3.94 2017-18 98.74 128.70 2.00 80.70 3.94 2018-19 119.97 140.99 97.00 4.47 2019-20 2.00 Base Year 2015-16=100 - 141.57 3.90 106.49 1.55 2019-20 - 141.57 3.93 113.10 1.55 2020-21 - 141.57 4.39 106.53 1.56 July-April -: Not available Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics *: The unit has been changed form 100 CM to 100 CF in base year 2000-01. In the new base year 2015-16, prices are disseminated w.e.f July, 2019. 92
483. TABLE 7 .5 INDICES OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES Fiscal Year Wheat Rice Gram (Whole) Sugar VegetabTea Meat Refined le Ghee (Base Year 2000-01 = 100) Vegetables Fresh Milk 2000-01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2001-02 96.10 109.64 84.23 82.36 114.12 99.28 102.04 107.57 2002-03 101.12 126.09 71.40 75.32 130.34 96.93 111.10 101.65 2003-04 191.89 138.50 74.17 67.72 141.44 96.94 137.55 116.00 2004-05 137.24 153.40 95.52 85.18 137.41 93.78 169.19 144.06 2005-06 135.61 154.78 127.43 120.70 136.94 93.99 185.95 2006-07 139.21 175.54 147.79 118.80 164.73 100.48 201.01 2007-08 190.75 285.63 139.22 98.78 249.36 100.92 2008-09 277.87 356.43 181.83 142.52 254.49 2009-10 300.58 317.20 215.86 209.50 262.63 2010-11 301.21 365.48 242.04 267.79 2008-09 148.02 125.90 126.16 142.39 Motor Fuels 2009-10 157.54 111.40 144.32 209.80 94.75 151.22 139.74 151.74 135.32 144.08 119.93 2010-11 159.53 123.39 169.24 251.13 118.21 165.31 174.86 173.43 157.40 171.48 126.84 2011-12 163.44 149.45 - 229.24 141.37 192.23 214.40 211.52 190.29 189.55 155.00 2012-13 188.52 165.42 - 201.93 141.75 203.24 228.80 216.66 213.81 168.92 168.70 2013-14 227.13 177.67 - 206.98 141.51 215.49 238.93 254.41 225.98 185.58 184.99 2014-15 209.29 172.20 - 189.35 147.13 145.16 236.14 255.40 249.87 208.86 167.79 2015-16 209.07 147.58 - 237.16 119.85 242.82 267.79 258.45 255.23 249.16 120.71 2016-17 208.21 154.49 - 242.70 124.63 243.24 282.23 280.77 266.08 268.07 115.52 2017-18 202.02 172.15 - 201.60 127.22 261.70 311.25 294.16 275.05 262.92 134.99 2018-19 211.14 191.38 - 226.24 135.10 285.16 348.60 (Base Year 2015-16=100) 293.46 287.20 269.50 164.47 2019-20 119.09 145.34 - 123.16 138.46 126.36 139.45 178.87 116.22 127.20 150.35 2019-20 118.58 144.06 - 121.70 136.74 126.08 137.41 112.91 124.50 126.00 158.72 2020-21 159.92 165.39 - 149.19 162.54 129.68 159.73 115.03 140.64 138.32 100.00 100.00 99.79 91.31 102.90 100.50 110.46 106.80 105.41 144.44 111.03 113.43 95.23 134.78 160.14 122.83 103.91 181.46 161.14 133.31 110.92 181.38 207.99 163.85 154.42 136.71 192.88 134.83 242.43 204.04 184.75 153.12 216.16 160.82 292.57 267.37 206.54 203.26 219.11 354.09 179.71 370.99 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 370.80 242.21 386.09 244.87 132.22 119.35 121.12 113.68 97.19 129.05 115.53 100.00 Cotton July-April -: Not available Note: In the base year 2007-08 and 2015-16 prices of Motor Spirit has been quoted instead of Motor Fuel prices in previous base year 2000-01. In the base year 2015-16 prices of Cotton Seeds has been quoted instead of Cotton prices. 93 147.57 (Contd.)
484. TABLE 7 .5 INDICES OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES Fiscal Year Other Oils Fire Wood Cotton Yarn Matches Soaps FertiTranslizers port Base Year 2000-01 = 100 Leather Timber Cement 2000-01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2001-02 103.59 101.33 95.35 100.55 103.89 102.26 106.66 100.00 101.45 100.42 2002-03 128.10 103.94 98.06 100.55 109.00 113.59 106.82 95.23 101.25 102.77 2003-04 139.86 115.41 121.03 105.61 110.68 123.64 108.70 93.64 121.75 102.45 2004-05 169.56 127.94 106.36 107.66 122.81 140.95 110.39 102.77 140.93 104.82 2005-06 227.55 152.23 108.07 107.67 122.05 156.16 111.71 110.65 142.05 122.67 2006-07 237.63 176.28 112.66 107.67 127.73 147.70 114.94 111.86 162.09 127.42 2007-08 264.00 205.70 112.15 111.86 147.59 215.18 114.99 121.84 170.93 111.61 2008-09 372.04 247.76 104.21 124.26 176.29 310.97 123.95 129.83 201.11 139.83 2009-10 434.55 273.93 138.40 124.26 182.99 296.52 128.03 134.14 210.60 129.35 2010-11 511.36 322.67 222.84 131.38 203.92 357.86 159.78 (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 216.90 227.95 132.15 2008-09 126.68 118.08 106.00 122.07 111.35 147.58 109.26 103.63 114.01 129.08 2009-10 122.94 129.86 150.86 108.52 117.69 143.70 113.20 104.89 118.75 117.30 2010-11 141.73 151.43 182.87 110.37 130.52 174.65 116.77 107.07 127.27 140.80 2011-12 166.98 190.47 196.06 118.84 151.04 258.65 - 109.08 139.00 162.19 2012-13 177.67 215.48 208.38 132.57 167.01 261.38 - 111.60 149.51 185.77 2013-14 178.30 238.11 213.03 143.20 180.26 266.33 - 168.48 170.36 203.42 2014-15 179.03 252.59 246.11 175.76 160.21 235.83 - 216.67 200.60 225.95 2015-16 162.08 263.90 173.44 162.62 183.87 260.00 - 220.42 214.44 212.15 2015-16 161.99 263.88 173.41 162.62 183.87 260.10 - 220.40 214.35 212.23 2016-17 178.77 272.97 198.86 165.53 189.10 219.37 - 222.98 225.62 214.45 2017-18 186.98 282.43 216.99 171.36 191.32 222.52 - 215.78 233.96 217.99 2018-19 232.43 290.68 267.72 172.07 - 224.79 243.08 236.62 2019-20 131.64 111.12 164.90 1164.79 110.25 101.84 - 106.04 111.87 113.42 187.55 110.16 164.92 1163.56 109.96 103.28 - 112.60 111.86 113.08 198.37 258.49 Base Year 2015-16 = 100 July-April 2019-20 2020-21 138.56 123.72 174.27 1172.22 112.47 100.18 119.26 151.59 121.65 -: Not available Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Note: In the base year 2007-08 and 2015-16 prices of kerosene Oil has been quoted instead of other oils in previous base year 2000-01 and prices of Motorcyles instead of transport. 94
485. TABLE 8 .1 SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AS PER BPM6 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 R US $ million 2020-21 P (July-March) Current Account Balance -2,496 -3,130 -2,815 -4,961 -12,270 -19,195 -13,434 -4,449 959 Current Account Balance without off. transfers -2,898 -3,464 -3,141 -5,546 -12,844 -20,165 -14,177 -4,898 737 24,802 25,078 24,090 21,972 22,003 24,768 24,257 22,536 18,700 ITEM Exports of Goods FOB Imports of Goods FOB 40,157 41,668 41,357 41,118 48,001 55,671 51,869 43,645 37,357 Balance on Trade in Goods -15,355 -16,590 -17,267 -19,146 -25,998 -30,903 -27,612 -21,109 -18,657 Exports of Services 6,724 5,345 5,872 5,456 5,915 5,851 5,966 5,437 4,372 Imports of Services 8,288 7,995 8,848 9,002 10,576 12,277 10,936 8,753 5,734 Transportation 3,297 3,874 4,160 3,272 3,808 3,956 3,639 3,036 2,031 Travel 1,233 1,073 1,518 1,839 2,000 2,289 1,709 1,229 605 -1,564 -2,650 -2,976 -3,546 -4,661 -6,426 -4,970 -3,316 -1,362 -16,919 -19,240 -20,243 -22,692 -30,659 -37,329 -32,582 -24,425 -20,019 488 508 644 610 696 726 578 479 412 4,157 4,463 5,243 5,955 5,710 6,163 6,188 5,938 4,006 of which Balance on Trade in Services Balance on Trade in Goods and Services Primary Income credit Primary Income debit of which: Interest Payments# Balance on Primary Income Balance on Goods, Services and Primary Income Secondary Income credit of which: Workers' Remittances Secondary Income debit Balance on secondary Income Capital Account Balance Capital Account credit Capital Account debit Net lending (+) / Net borrowing (–) (Current and Capital Accounts) Financial Account Direct investment Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Pakistan Portfolio investment Portfolio Investment Abroad Portfolio Investment in Pakistan Financial Derivatives (other than reserves) and ESOs* Other Investment Net Acquisition of Financial Assets Net Incurrence of Liabilities 1,217 1,323 1,605 1,733 1,993 2,600 3,066 3,109 1,871 -3,669 -3,955 -4,599 -5,345 -5,014 -5,437 -5,610 -5,459 -3,594 -20,588 -23,195 -24,842 -28,037 -35,673 -42,766 -38,192 -29,884 -23,613 18,183 20,222 22,291 23,204 23,604 23,800 24,990 25,802 24,793 13,922 15,837 18,721 19,917 19,351 19,914 21,740 23,131 21,468 91 157 264 128 201 229 232 367 221 18,092 20,065 22,027 23,076 23,403 23,571 24,758 25,435 24,572 264 1,857 375 273 375 376 229 285 183 266 1,857 375 279 375 376 229 288 183 2 -2,232 0 -1,273 0 -2,440 6 -4,688 0 -11,895 0 -18,819 0 -13,205 3 -4,164 0 1,142 -549 -5,553 -5,119 -6,878 -9,855 -13,611 -11,759 -9,313 -1,364 -1,258 -1,572 -960 -2,374 -2,320 -2,772 -1,436 -2,652 -1,340 198 128 73 19 86 10 -74 -54 56 1,456 1,700 1,033 2,393 2,406 2,782 1,362 2,598 1,396 -26 -2,762 -1,886 429 250 -2,257 1,274 409 291 99 -23 -44 100 -1 -48 -144 -115 24 125 2,739 1,842 -329 -251 2,209 -1,418 -524 -267 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 -8 2 735 -1,221 -2,271 -4,933 -7,785 -8,582 -11,597 -7,062 -317 314 -211 -71 96 1,180 273 -67 -127 1,297 -421 1,010 2,200 5,029 8,965 8,855 11,530 6,935 1,614 of which General Government Disbursements Credit and Loans with the IMF (Other than Reserves)@ Other Long Term 248 1,610 1,400 3,445 5,040 4,894 4,294 5,919 3,744 2,530 4,349 4,243 6,159 9,414 8,507 8,255 13,181 6,722 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,834 499 2,274 3,617 3,088 4,498 8,251 6,782 6,610 8,736 5,382 Short Term 256 732 1,155 1,661 1,163 1,725 1,645 1,611 841 Amortization 2,282 2,734 2,841 2,714 4,374 4,107 5,982 7,299 4,369 Credit and Loans with the IMF (Other than Reserves)@ Other Long Term Short Term Other Liabilities (Net) Net Errors and Omissions Overall Balance Reserves and Related Items Use of Fund Credit and Loans Exceptional Financing SBP Gross Reserves 361 900 563 53 0 0 0 0 0 1,530 1,834 1,696 1,927 2,981 2,619 4,444 6,117 3,624 391 0 582 734 1,393 1,488 1,538 1,182 745 0 -5 -2 0 0 494 2,021 37 1,391 -309 -422 -33 462 94 -933 -58 150 -969 1,992 -3,858 -2,646 -2,652 1,946 6,141 1,504 -5,299 -1,537 -1,992 3,858 2,646 2,652 -1,946 -6,141 -1,504 5,299 1,537 -2,538 -573 1,949 2,009 102 -86 -376 -745 -779 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,197 10,509 14,836 19,446 17,550 11,341 9,301 13,724 14,906 P: Provisional; R: Revised Source: State Bank of Pakistan * : Employee Stock Options # : Revised from 2011-12 onwards @ : newly added in this table 97
486. TABLE 8 .2 COMPONENTS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (AS PERCENT OF GDP) Year Exports * Imports * Trade Deficit * Worker's Remittances # Current Account Balance # -0.7 2000-01 12.9 15.1 2.1 1.5 2001-02 12.8 14.4 1.7 3.3 1.9 2002-03 13.5 14.8 1.3 5.1 4.9 2003-04 12.6 15.9 3.3 3.9 1.8 2004-05 13.0 18.6 5.6 3.8 -1.4 2005-06** 12.0 20.9 8.9 3.4 -4.1 2006-07 11.1 20.0 8.9 3.6 -4.8 2007-08 11.2 23.5 12.3 3.8 -8.2 2008-09 10.5 20.7 10.2 4.6 -5.5 2009-10 10.9 19.6 8.7 5.0 -2.2 2010-11 11.6 18.9 7.3 5.2 0.1 2011-12 10.5 20.0 9.5 5.9 -2.1 2012-13 10.6 19.4 8.9 6.0 -1.1 2013-14 10.3 18.4 8.2 6.5 -1.3 2014-15 8.7 16.9 8.2 6.9 -1.0 2015-16 7.5 16.0 8.6 7.1 -1.7 2016-17 6.7 17.4 10.7 6.3 -4.0 2017-18 7.4 19.3 11.9 6.3 -6.1 2018-19 @ 8.2 19.6 11.4 7.8 -4.8 2019-20 8.1 16.9 8.8 8.8 -1.7 6.6 13.2 6.6 6.5 -1.6 July-March 2019-20 (P)@ 2020-21 6.3 13.2 7.0 7.2 0.3 P : Provisional Source: PBS, SBP & EAWing, Finance Division * : Based on the data compiled bybyFBS PBS **: Based on revised GDP base year since 2005-06 onwards # : MoF Calculation based on data compiled by SBP @ : Based on average exhcnage rate FY2019 = 136.09, FY2020 = 158.03, FY2021= 159.75 as ginven by PBS in National Accounts 98
487. TABLE 8 .3 EXPORTS, IMPORTS & TRADE BALANCE Year Rs. million Current Prices Exports Imports Balance Growth Rate (%) Exports Imports Balance US $ million Current Prices Exports Imports Balance Growth Rate (%) Exports Imports Balance 2000-01 539,070 627,000 -87,930 21.50 17.46 -2.42 9,202 10,729 -1,527 7.39 4.07 -12.24 2001-02 560,947 634,630 -73,683 4.06 1.22 -16.20 9,135 10,340 -1,205 -0.73 -3.63 -21.09 2002-03 652,294 714,372 -62,078 16.28 12.57 -15.75 11,160 12,220 -1,060 22.17 18.18 -12.03 2003-04 709,036 897,825 -188,789 8.70 25.68 204.12 12,313 15,592 -3,279 10.33 27.59 209.34 2004-05 854,088 1,223,079 -368,991 20.46 36.23 95.45 14,391 20,598 -6,207 16.88 32.11 89.30 2005-06 984,841 1,711,158 -726,317 15.31 39.91 96.84 16,451 28,581 -12,130 14.31 38.76 95.42 2006-07 1,029,312 1,851,806 -822,494 4.52 8.22 13.24 16,976 30,540 -13,564 3.19 6.85 11.82 2007-08 1,196,638 2,512,072 -1,315,434 16.26 35.66 59.93 19,052 39,966 -20,914 12.23 30.86 54.19 2008-09 1,383,718 2,723,570 -1,339,852 15.63 8.42 1.86 17,688 34,822 -17,134 -7.16 -12.87 -18.07 2009-10 1,617,458 2,910,975 -1,293,517 16.89 6.88 -3.46 19,290 34,710 -15,420 9.06 -0.32 -10.00 2010-11 2,120,847 3,455,287 -1,334,440 31.12 18.70 3.16 24,810 40,414 -15,604 28.62 16.43 1.19 2011-12 2,110,605 4,009,093 -1,898,488 -0.48 16.03 42.27 23,624 44,912 -21,288 -4.78 11.13 36.43 2012-13 2,366,478 4,349,880 -1,983,402 12.12 8.50 4.47 24,460 44,950 -20,490 3.54 0.08 -3.75 2013-14 2,583,463 4,630,521 -2,047,058 9.17 6.45 3.21 25,110 45,073 -19,963 2.66 0.27 -2.57 2014-15 2,397,513 4,644,152 -2,246,639 -7.20 0.29 9.75 23,667 45,826 -22,159 -5.75 1.67 11.00 2015-16 2,166,846 4,658,749 -2,491,903 -9.62 0.31 10.92 20,787 44,685 -23,898 -12.17 -2.49 7.85 2016-17 2,138,186 5,539,721 -3,401,535 -1.32 18.91 36.50 20,422 52,910 -32,488 -1.76 18.41 35.94 2017-18 2,555,043 6,694,897 -4,139,854 19.50 20.85 21.71 23,212 60,795 -37,583 13.66 14.90 15.68 2018-19 3,128,230 7,443,253 -4,315,023 22.43 11.18 4.23 22,958 54,763 -31,805 -1.09 -9.92 -15.37 2019-20 3,369,782 7,029,819 -3,660,037 7.72 -5.55 -15.18 21,394 44,553 -23,159 -6.81 -18.64 -27.18 2.18 -14.47 -26.52 July- March 2019-20 2,725,210 5,434,524 -2,709,314 20.39 1.18 12.81 17,443 34,791 -17,348 2020-21 P 3,020,281 P : Provisional 6,377,205 -3,356,924 10.83 17.35 23.90 18,687 39,496 -20,809 7.13 13.52 19.95 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 99
488. TABLE 8 .4 UNIT VALUE INDICES & TERMS OF TRADE (T.O.T) (1990-91 = 100) Groups 2000-01 All Groups Exports 271.47 Imports 298.44 T.O.T. 90.96 Food & Live Animals Exports 249.32 Imports 278.82 T.O.T. 89.42 Beverages & Tobacco Exports 171.44 Imports 698.92 T.O.T. 24.53 Crude Materials (inedible except fuels) Exports 192.12 Imports 218.95 T.O.T. 87.75 Minerals, Fuels & Lubricants Exports 373.65 Imports 276.87 T.O.T. 134.96 Chemicals Exports 282.36 Imports 228.06 T.O.T. 123.81 Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & Waxes Exports Imports 195.10 T.O.T. Manufactured Goods Exports 279.04 Imports 251.50 T.O.T. 110.95 Machinery & Transport Equipment Exports 453.20 Imports 470.20 T.O.T. 96.38 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles Exports 292.47 Imports 323.02 T.O.T. 90.54 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 271.18 298.56 90.83 254.02 309.52 82.07 279.65 355.43 78.68 288.84 392.45 73.60 299.31 460.38 65.01 310.03 495.33 62.59 350.40 632.30 55.42 450.40 790.82 56.95 478.07 839.60 56.94 593.19 1013.10 58.55 260.55 277.41 93.92 258.11 259.76 99.36 267.55 282.18 94.82 303.93 314.36 96.68 327.47 323.95 101.09 350.75 431.20 81.34 496.58 551.25 90.08 758.42 622.23 121.89 693.35 689.76 100.52 747.72 743.82 100.52 169.82 790.14 21.49 146.52 598.00 24.50 175.33 521.88 33.60 162.96 561.23 29.04 191.13 621.67 30.74 208.44 675.14 30.87 202.67 635.41 31.02 431.15 884.26 48.76 629.08 961.43 65.43 804.61 1060.35 75.88 158.90 228.14 69.65 171.58 232.37 73.84 218.86 245.01 89.33 195.64 293.06 66.76 209.97 329.71 63.68 225.52 350.19 64.40 328.53 445.35 73.77 494.08 613.16 80.58 573.05 677.43 84.59 647.55 803.59 80.58 314.40 249.66 125.93 365.14 297.20 122.86 416.09 306.38 135.81 525.75 389.16 135.10 644.33 615.00 104.77 733.54 632.08 116.05 979.83 877.47 111.67 840.28 982.09 85.56 1115.54 975.40 114.37 1333.56 1255.86 106.19 281.54 239.29 117.66 270.05 245.60 109.96 265.61 313.15 84.82 277.23 334.10 82.98 312.89 372.17 84.07 362.50 392.87 92.27 397.29 471.77 84.21 480.24 659.24 72.85 534.75 725.54 73.70 620.91 796.89 77.92 224.82 - 300.36 - 347.94 281.83 244.97 115.05 248.93 240.82 103.37 274.02 287.80 95.21 284.72 301.00 94.59 289.58 340.71 84.99 300.76 375.06 80.19 318.97 427.60 74.60 387.90 559.24 69.36 411.00 612.77 67.07 559.56 747.32 74.88 579.13 481.18 120.36 572.31 450.67 126.99 396.09 537.55 73.68 342.97 561.15 61.12 414.01 538.14 76.93 430.91 580.85 74.19 518.62 639.86 81.05 806.33 897.86 89.81 988.72 965.15 102.44 1286.13 1183.62 108.66 298.40 320.35 93.15 294.67 299.60 98.35 318.55 333.22 95.60 324.17 343.13 94.47 342.71 414.94 82.59 340.99 418.65 81.45 351.77 605.24 58.12 442.64 763.29 57.99 498.40 964.44 51.68 558.25 1174.99 47.61 - 358.48 - 341.40 - - : Not available 406.00 - 647.28 - 793.22 - 881.02 - 1005.72 - - (Contd...) 100
489. TABLE 8 .4 UNIT VALUE INDICES & TERMS OF TRADE (T.O.T) (1990-91 = 100) Groups 2011-12 All Groups Exports 679.44 Imports 1,233.49 T.O.T. 55.08 Food & Live Animals Exports 800.09 Imports 791.79 T.O.T. 101.05 Beverages & Tobacco Exports 935.29 Imports 1,230.10 T.O.T. 76.03 Crude Materials (inedible except fuels) Exports 848.74 Imports 881.00 T.O.T. 96.34 Minerals, Fuels & Lubricants Exports 1,500.63 Imports 1,651.93 T.O.T. 90.84 Chemicals Exports 739.66 Imports 897.56 T.O.T. 82.41 Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & Waxes Exports Imports 1,240.29 T.O.T. Manufactured Goods Exports 641.15 Imports 823.33 T.O.T. 77.87 Machinery & Transport Equipment Exports 1,517.96 Imports 1,407.29 T.O.T. 107.86 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles Exports 650.31 Imports 1,274.46 T.O.T. 51.03 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 715.45 1,329.56 53.81 752.86 1,387.15 54.27 759.21 1,394.75 54.43 705.02 1,215.80 57.99 701.43 1,199.54 58.47 735.50 1,261.25 58.32 794.77 1342.30 59.21 841.44 1369.71 61.43 845.05 1375.49 61.44 903.29 1405.43 64.27 884.48 802.28 110.25 954.07 838.74 113.75 1,057.47 891.28 118.65 944.46 839.11 112.55 923.60 829.56 111.34 1,134.29 943.23 120.26 1229.51 908.93 135.27 1280.54 1172.18 109.24 1293.76 1156.72 111.85 1364.30 1191.26 114.53 1,052.54 1,339.47 78.58 1,127.89 1,446.20 77.99 1,148.80 1,620.65 70.89 1,217.42 1,700.77 71.58 1,225.01 1,762.07 69.52 1,061.25 1,656.22 64.08 860.48 1325.61 64.91 830.28 1287.99 64.46 836.30 1312.44 63.72 767.05 1512.52 50.71 958.74 995.65 96.29 1,009.57 1,046.35 96.48 999.87 1,048.08 95.40 920.79 1,031.47 89.27 888.69 1,019.86 87.14 1,043.30 1,020.56 102.23 1119.52 1102.13 101.58 1327.78 1228.58 108.07 1316.00 1194.11 110.21 1236.73 1251.10 98.85 1,615.08 1,720.77 93.86 1,682.81 1,757.91 95.73 1,713.20 1,511.85 113.32 1,092.25 919.48 118.79 1,126.22 811.76 138.74 1,485.92 1,030.32 144.22 2016.59 1564.46 128.90 1894.55 1411.00 134.27 2056.53 1578.75 130.26 1556.38 1163.29 133.79 876.11 994.50 88.10 939.50 1,098.60 85.52 935.18 1,256.50 74.43 1,000.41 1,193.67 83.81 1,017.19 1,277.08 79.65 1,054.28 1,264.05 83.40 1129.18 1335.10 84.58 1252.79 1455.62 86.07 1235.51 1437.15 85.97 1323.72 1425.20 92.88 1,103.29 - 1,054.13 - 1,037.83 - 1,011.65 - 1,090.65 - 1,010.73 - 689.62 887.02 77.75 698.49 899.66 77.64 667.05 1,026.39 64.99 607.38 920.53 65.98 595.81 927.03 64.27 580.96 939.97 61.81 616.90 1110.15 55.57 647.03 1289.64 50.17 650.15 1299.31 50.04 668.50 1343.70 49.75 1,603.48 1,738.91 92.21 1,650.17 1,866.32 88.42 1,789.37 1,985.27 90.13 1,873.58 1,913.99 97.89 1,741.77 1,872.19 93.03 1,838.42 1,913.85 96.06 1466.32 1458.64 100.53 1129.99 1387.32 81.45 1155.98 1247.29 92.68 1257.17 1849.58 67.97 657.15 1,342.66 48.94 700.75 1,458.63 48.04 728.76 1,854.42 39.30 774.38 2,376.63 32.58 786.63 2,494.45 31.54 820.87 2,652.61 30.95 887.27 2186.14 40.59 982.56 2019.53 48.65 963.82 1977.59 48.74 1183.38 1974.33 59.94 995.35 - 1133.53 - 1088.22 - 1412.22 - Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics - : Not available P : Provisional 101
490. TABLE 8 .5 A ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF EXPORTS Year Primary Commodities Value Percentage Share Semi-Manufactured Value Percentage Share Value in Rs million Manufactured Goods Value Percentage Total Share Value * 2000-01 67,783 13 81,288 15 389,999 72 539,070 2001-02 60,346 11 80,438 14 420,163 75 560,947 2002-03 71,194 11 71,323 11 509,777 78 652,294 2003-04 70,716 10 83,361 12 554,959 78 709,036 2004-05 92,018 11 86,483 10 675,586 79 854,088 2005-06 112,268 11 106,029 11 766,543 78 984,841 2006-07 113,954 11 121,930 12 793,428 77 1,029,312 2007-08 171,670 14 127,090 11 897,877 75 1,196,638 2008-09 224,873 16 130,693 10 1,028,151 74 1,383,718 2009-10 287,491 18 170,609 10 1,159,358 72 1,617,458 2010-11 377,536 18 274,500 13 1,468,811 69 2,120,847 2011-12 362,404 17 261,831 12 1,486,370 71 2,110,605 2012-13 364,127 15 391,151 17 1,611,199 68 2,366,478 2013-14 420,496 16 369,066 14 1,793,901 70 2,583,463 2014-15 402,750 17 352,074 15 1,642,689 68 2,397,513 2015-16 356,584 16 254,329 12 1,555,933 72 2,166,846 2016-17 331,040 15 246,319 12 1,560,826 73 2,138,186 2017-18 454,351 18 307,567 12 1,793,125 70 2,555,043 2018-19 567,876 18 307,322 10 2,253,032 72 3,128,230 2019-20 629,112 19 283,213 8 2,457,457 484,014 18 229,099 8 2,012,097 206,686 7 2,335,538 77 3,020,281 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 73 3,369,782 July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 478,056 16 P : Provisional * : Total may differ due to rounding off figure 102 74 2,725,210
491. TABLE 8 .5 B ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF IMPORTS Rs million Year Capital Goods Value Percentage Share Industrial Raw Material For Capital Goods Consumer Goods Value Percentage Value Percentage Share Share Consumer Goods Value Percentage Share Total Value * 2000-01 157,091 25 34,371 6 345,770 55 89,768 14 627,000 2001-02 176,702 28 39,038 6 346,865 55 72,025 11 634,630 2002-03 220,942 31 41,216 6 380,035 53 72,179 10 714,372 2003-04 316,082 35 57,310 7 441,586 49 82,847 9 897,825 2004-05 441,528 36 101,719 8 557,226 46 122,607 10 1,223,079 2005-06 631,644 37 124,480 7 769,336 45 185,698 11 1,711,158 2006-07 670,539 36 134,519 7 864,736 47 182,011 10 1,851,806 2007-08 731,017 29 202,538 8 1,322,329 53 256,187 10 2,512,072 2008-09 790,327 29 246,600 9 1,337,986 49 348,657 13 2,723,570 2009-10 812,016 28 209,051 7 1,509,081 52 380,827 13 2,910,975 2010-11 829,005 24 239,525 7 1,826,243 53 560,512 16 3,455,285 2011-12 911,561 23 262,212 7 2,292,309 57 543,011 14 4,009,093 2012-13 1,049,775 24 293,733 7 2,353,818 54 652,553 15 4,349,880 2013-14 1,081,329 23 306,810 7 2,462,189 53 780,192 17 4,630,521 2014-15 1,233,341 27 388,167 8 2,214,664 48 807,980 17 4,644,152 2015-16 1,482,878 31 417,210 9 1,887,884 41 870,977 19 4,658,748 2016-17 1,887,928 34 470,891 9 2,199,168 40 981,733 18 5,539,721 2017-18 2,084,584 31 660,986 10 2,878,788 43 1,070,539 16 6,694,897 2018-19 2,062,358 28 747,761 10 3,301,354 44 1,331,780 18 7,443,253 2019-20 2,016,700 29 757,355 11 2,978,352 42 1,277,412 18 7,029,818 1,508,644 28 583,562 11 2,333,834 43 1,008,484 19 5,434,524 2020-21 P 1,777,354 28 710,207 P : Provisional * : Total may differ due to rounding off figures 11 2,675,843 42 July-March 2019-20 103 1,213,800 19 6,377,205 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
492. TABLE 8 .6 MAJOR IMPORTS Items 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Rs million July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 1. Chemicals 435,801 447,521 498,340 532,197 540,558 579,959 719,354 865,613 851,989 630,244 758,406 2. Drugs & medicines 62,268 80,736 81,399 96,183 96,135 102,110 118,122 148,428 157,763 118,324 135,173 3. Dyes and colours 29,129 29,932 38,601 40,221 43,345 47,334 55,255 72,491 65,958 50,329 64,287 4. Chemical Fertilizers 110,626 63,277 73,058 92,641 75,667 67,063 90,879 105,162 89,580 75,389 71,306 5. Electrical goods 72,608 81,728 114,784 122,183 187,163 243,082 236,896 239,618 349,334 272,152 177,690 6. Machinery (non-electrical) 435,139 473,258 551,829 633,733 712,920 996,128 1,045,502 984,410 1,042,935 771,457 985,382 7. Transport equipments 192,247 228,987 219,877 263,622 297,225 332,549 462,630 397,772 229,955 172,966 308,764 8. Paper, board & stationery 38,081 38,970 44,362 56,130 56,930 59,960 69,096 78,298 66,947 52,059 55,649 9. Tea 31,292 35,632 30,827 34,532 53,491 54,839 60,368 77,367 84,354 58,765 70,424 10. Sugar-refined 1,167 501 635 631 645 535 554 534 608 366 20,710 11. Art-silk yarn 52,939 52,328 63,596 69,028 64,612 66,478 72,996 94,611 79,126 67,071 80,711 12. Iron, steel & manufactures thereof 156,683 193,543 180,530 226,030 261,291 228,719 344,595 401,045 319,554 238,986 289,709 13. Non-ferrous metals 35,370 37,693 44,389 44,709 51,722 55,534 67,736 61,698 49,606 37,089 52,949 1,361,511 1,447,531 1,527,753 1,195,025 794,698 982,619 1,289,222 1,475,012 1,171,969 1,001,965 885,217 216,387 196,776 206,955 186,010 195,200 212,327 238,563 265,430 300,008 222,632 308,488 16. Grains, pulses & flour 48,691 45,239 52,710 71,742 77,525 110,483 72,603 84,754 112,183 74,797 238,955 17. Other imports 729,154 896,228 900,876 979,535 1,149,622 1,340,002 1,750,526 2,091,010 2,057,949 1,589,933 1,873,385 4,009,093 4,349,880 4,630,521 4,644,152 4,658,749 5,479,721 6,694,897 7,443,253 14. Petroleum & products 15. Edible oils Grand Total P : Provisional 104 7,029,818 5,434,524 6,377,205 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
493. TABLE 8 .7 MAJOR EXPORTS 2011-12 1. Rice 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 343,916 Rs million July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 249,099 251,312 184,405 186,304 222,906 206,266 194,246 168,244 224,739 285,031 28,590 30,755 37,918 35,429 33,918 41,214 49,755 60,405 64,118 49,527 48,945 32,068 37,772 45,196 44,375 44,607 39,878 43,842 56,272 67,769 59,183 61,037 2. Fish and Fish preparations 3. Fruits 4. Wheat 11,178 6,064 732 291 17 109 27,109 20,124 1,815 1,815 - 5. Sugar 2,576 51,643 29,638 32,686 13,818 16,867 56,379 31,147 11,063 11,063 - 15,522 20,362 23,650 24,657 28,036 23,103 24,920 33,438 48,021 36,379 40,120 6. Meat and Meat Preparations 7. Raw Cotton 8. Cotton Yarn 41,393 14,882 21,353 14,931 7,948 4,559 6,184 2,709 2,669 2,669 98 162,004 217,123 205,660 187,376 131,700 130,216 151,063 152,726 155,158 128,188 116,119 9. Cotton Fabrics 218,160 260,347 285,130 248,431 230,757 223,675 242,374 285,625 287,877 241,762 229,679 10. Hosiery (Knitwear) 176,682 196,408 235,564 243,719 246,267 247,242 298,374 394,748 440,104 359,419 449,951 11. Bedwear 155,108 172,538 219,962 213,018 210,543 223,812 248,538 307,202 338,750 275,280 332,181 61,326 75,060 78,889 80,778 83,681 83,819 87,633 107,043 111,969 92,560 111,895 144,269 175,662 196,198 212,210 228,861 242,782 283,498 362,320 401,355 339,017 367,028 48,817 39,369 39,508 33,485 30,005 19,638 34,069 40,433 49,548 40,795 43,470 10,757 11,839 12,935 12,098 10,186 8,219 8,317 9,147 8,516 7,612 8,777 30,240 39,841 31,888 48,378 37,256 56,496 34,294 49,583 33,862 37,803 32,285 36,180 37,710 36,330 41,995 34,269 41,286 29,001 34,802 23,657 31,146 18,294 18. Leather Manufactures 19. Foot wear 46,536 8,860 54,000 10,037 64,360 12,209 60,429 13,304 54,788 11,453 51,421 10,024 57,422 11,913 66,146 16,734 74,588 19,839 62,673 16,311 69,302 16,029 20. Medical & Surgical Instruments 21. Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals 22. Engineering goods 27,126 29,316 34,725 34,576 37,408 35,574 41,618 52,970 55,960 47,396 52,483 96,009 84,213 120,391 99,339 83,752 92,176 114,350 154,532 159,377 114,840 136,138 24,726 28,030 33,487 22,675 19,645 18,238 22,882 23,518 27,229 21,931 26,484 23. Jewellery 82,774 112,419 33,844 668 833 610 644 661 506 502 1,060 24. Cement and cement Products 25. All other items 44,619 55,878 52,147 44,943 33,468 24,896 24,420 36,550 40,849 32,804 34,051 588,499 475,926 574,682 12. Towels 13. Readymade Garments 14. Art Silk and Synthetic Textiles 15. Carpets, Carpeting Rugs & Mats 16. Sports Goods excl. Toys 17. Leather Excluding Reptile Leather (Tanned) Total Exports P: Provisional 417,019 421,592 483,309 447,952 359,244 363,405 420,960 552,485 2,110,605 2,371,879 2,583,463 2,397,513 2,166,846 2,138,186 2,555,043 3,128,230 105 3,369,782 2,725,210 3,020,281 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
494. TABLE 8 .8 DESTINATION OF EXPORTS & ORIGIN OF IMPORTS % Share REGION 2000-01 1. Developed Countries Exports 58.1 Imports 34.3 a. OECD Exports 57.6 Imports 33.7 b. Other European Countries Exports 0.5 Imports 0.6 2. CMEA* Exports 0.5 Imports 1.1 3. Developing Countries Exports 41.4 Imports 64.6 a. OIC Exports 19.2 Imports 36.0 b. SAARC Exports 2.5 Imports 2.4 c. ASEAN Exports 2.7 Imports 11.7 d. Central America Exports 1.0 Imports 0.1 e. South America Exports 0.9 Imports 0.7 f. Other Asian Countries Exports 11.4 Imports 10.9 g. Other African Countries Exports 3.5 Imports 2.7 h. Central Asian States Exports 0.2 Imports 0.1 Total 100 - : Not available * : Council for Mutual Economic Assistance 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 56.1 34.4 58.2 35.5 55.9 38.0 55.9 38.0 54.7 34.2 54.7 33.3 51.0 30.2 46.4 29.1 43.7 26.3 43.3 22.7 55.6 33.5 57.5 34.7 55.2 34.7 55.2 34.7 53.8 32.4 53.8 31.5 50.0 27.1 45.5 27.8 42.8 25.3 42.3 21.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 3.3 0.7 3.3 0.9 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.0 3.1 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.9 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 3.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 43.3 64.8 41.1 63.3 43.2 59.9 43.2 59.9 44.4 63.6 44.2 64.9 47.8 68.4 52.4 67.8 55.1 72.5 55.4 76.7 22.3 35.2 20.7 33.7 21.9 29.2 21.9 29.2 23.3 33.7 21.6 32.0 26.4 33.4 30.4 33.9 29.1 37.4 28.3 38.0 2.4 1.9 3.2 3.1 4.6 3.2 4.6 3.2 4.4 3.3 4.8 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 3.8 5.4 3.9 6.5 4.7 2.9 12.2 2.7 11.1 2.1 10.0 2.1 10.0 1.7 9.1 1.9 9.5 1.7 9.9 2.1 10.4 2.8 11.4 2.3 11.9 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 9.9 12.5 9.4 12.3 8.7 13.7 8.7 13.7 8.9 13.7 9.2 15.9 8.4 15.7 8.5 15.2 11.2 16.3 11.8 17.8 4.0 2.3 3.2 2.3 4.0 2.4 4.0 2.4 4.1 2.2 4.1 1.9 4.2 2.2 4.0 3.0 4.4 2.5 4.1 2.9 0.2 100 0.2 0.1 100 0.1 0.2 100 0.1 0.2 100 0.1 0.1 100 0.1 0.1 100 0.1 0.3 100 0.1 100 0.1 0.2 100 0.1 0.2 100 (Contd...) 106 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
495. TABLE 8 .8 DESTINATION OF EXPORTS & ORIGIN OF IMPORTS REGION 2011-12 2012-13 1. Developed Countries Exports 40.3 Imports 21.0 a. OECD Exports 39.2 Imports 19.9 b. Other European Countries Exports 1.1 Imports 1.1 2. CMEA* Exports 1.4 Imports 1.1 3. Developing Countries Exports 58.3 Imports 77.9 a. OIC Exports 28.8 Imports 40.8 b. SAARC Exports 5.4 Imports 3.7 c. ASEAN Exports 3.0 Imports 11.8 d. Central America Exports 0.8 Imports 0.1 e. South America Exports 1.4 Imports 0.6 f. Other Asian Countries Exports 14.5 Imports 18.3 g. Other African Countries Exports 4.3 Imports 2.6 h. Central Asian States Exports Imports 0.1 Total 100 P : Provisional - : Not available * : Council for Mutual Economic Assistance 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 % Share July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 41.5 21.5 44.7 20.5 46.7 20.9 51.6 23.3 53.4 22.5 52.2 22.0 53.6 21.8 54.5 21.0 54.4 20.9 57.5 21.4 40.4 20.5 43.5 18.5 45.5 18.4 50.5 20.9 52.2 20.6 50.8 20.1 52.3 19.9 53.0 19.3 53.0 19.2 56.2 18.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.1 2.5 1.1 2.4 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.3 2.6 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.9 0.9 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.0 2.2 0.9 2.3 1.1 2.3 1.0 2.6 2.1 57.0 77.6 53.7 78.5 51.6 77.8 46.6 75.8 44.6 76.2 45.8 77.0 44.2 77.3 43.3 77.9 43.2 78.0 39.9 76.5 26.5 40.5 23.3 39.4 20.9 33.2 18.6 24.7 17.2 26.2 17.5 28.2 16.7 30.8 17.6 27.3 17.4 29.6 15.0 25.2 5.6 4.3 5.5 4.8 5.6 4.0 6.0 4.3 6.1 3.5 6.1 3.4 5.8 3.0 4.6 1.1 5.1 1.2 3.8 0.9 2.8 11.0 2.6 11.0 3.6 10.7 2.6 10.2 2.8 9.8 3.7 10.2 3.4 10.3 3.3 10.4 3.2 10.3 3.0 11.0 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 2.0 15.4 18.2 14.9 20.2 14.1 25.6 12.1 30.7 11.5 31.6 11.3 29.3 11.9 27.0 10.6 31.6 10.5 30.0 11.9 32.2 4.4 2.6 5.2 2.2 5.2 2.9 5.0 3.4 4.7 3.4 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.2 4.1 4.9 0.1 100 0.1 100 0.1 100 0.2 0.1 100 0.3 0.1 100 0.4 0.1 100 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 100 100 100 100 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 107
496. TABLE 8 .9 WORKERS' REMITTANCES US $ million COUNTRY 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 4,152.29 91.22 48.49 53.84 6.51 214.78 18.30 86.86 627.19 119.28 712.61 152.51 532.93 26.17 1.00 371.86 1,294.08 507.27 4,588.03 100.57 81.71 59.03 6.63 246.75 16.82 118.69 750.44 130.45 716.30 147.89 540.24 26.87 1.30 438.65 1,242.49 679.50 5,490.97 136.28 87.20 76.87 4.26 288.71 22.04 170.65 1,023.56 161.69 866.49 200.40 635.60 28.86 1.63 430.04 1,459.64 763.54 6,448.84 140.51 100.62 73.33 4.75 384.58 28.78 233.36 1,251.32 224.94 1,090.30 298.80 761.24 28.58 1.68 458.87 1,762.03 695.45 7,810.95 153.27 79.07 100.71 5.10 432.05 24.94 339.51 1,559.56 277.82 1,688.59 669.40 970.42 47.84 0.93 605.59 1,735.87 808.87 8,904.9 11,200.9 151.4 167.3 115.1 184.6 81.2 106.6 5.7 8.1 445.1 495.2 34.7 37.0 354.2 306.1 1,917.7 2,670.1 287.3 337.6 2,038.5 2,597.7 1,130.3 1,328.8 851.5 1,201.2 54.6 63.8 2.1 4.0 876.4 1,199.7 1,771.2 2,068.7 826.6 1,022.2 II.Encashment* 64.98 48.26 46.12 45.42 16.50 12.09 Total (I+II) 1,086.57 2,389.05 4,236.85 3,871.58 4,168.79 4,600.12 * :Encashment and Profit in Pak Rs. of Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates (FEBCs) & Foreign Currency Bearer Certificates (FCBCs) 2.68 5,493.65 2.40 6,451.24 0.48 7,811.43 1.0 0.1 8,905.9 11,201.0 (Contd…) I. Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Sultanat-e-Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A. Other Countries 2000-01 1,021.59 23.87 4.90 9.20 3.93 123.39 5.74 13.38 304.43 38.11 190.04 48.11 129.69 12.21 0.03 81.39 134.81 88.40 2001-02 2,340.79 39.58 20.52 13.44 5.97 89.66 6.55 31.87 376.34 63.18 469.49 103.72 331.47 34.05 0.25 151.93 778.98 293.28 2002-03 4,190.73 71.46 15.19 26.87 8.14 221.23 8.89 87.68 580.76 93.65 837.87 212.37 581.09 42.60 1.81 273.83 1,237.52 727.64 2003-04 3,826.16 80.55 22.90 46.52 5.28 177.01 10.19 88.69 565.29 105.29 597.48 114.92 447.49 34.61 0.46 333.94 1,225.09 567.93 2009-10 2010-11 TABLE 8.9 WORKERS' REMITTANCES % Share COUNTRY Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Sultanat-e-Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A. Other Countries Total 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2.34 0.48 0.9 0.38 12.08 0.56 1.31 29.8 3.73 18.6 4.71 12.69 1.2 0 7.97 13.2 8.65 1.69 0.88 0.57 0.26 3.83 0.28 1.36 16.08 2.7 20.06 4.43 14.16 1.45 0.01 6.49 33.28 12.53 1.71 0.36 0.64 0.19 5.28 0.21 2.09 13.86 2.23 19.99 5.07 13.87 1.02 0.04 6.53 29.53 17.36 2.11 0.60 1.22 0.14 4.63 0.27 2.32 14.77 2.75 15.62 3.00 11.70 0.90 0.01 8.73 32.02 14.84 2.20 1.17 1.30 0.16 5.17 0.44 2.09 15.10 2.87 17.16 3.67 12.83 0.63 0.02 8.96 31.17 12.22 2.19 1.78 1.29 0.14 5.38 0.37 2.59 16.36 2.84 15.61 3.22 11.77 0.59 0.03 9.56 27.08 14.81 2.48 1.59 1.40 0.08 5.26 0.40 3.11 18.64 2.94 15.78 3.65 11.58 0.53 0.03 7.83 26.58 13.91 2.18 1.56 1.14 0.07 5.96 0.45 3.62 19.40 3.49 16.91 4.63 11.80 0.44 0.03 7.12 27.32 10.78 1.96 1.01 1.29 0.07 5.53 0.32 4.35 19.97 3.56 21.62 8.57 12.42 0.61 0.01 7.75 22.22 10.36 1.70 1.29 0.91 0.06 5.00 0.39 3.98 21.53 3.23 22.89 12.69 9.56 0.61 0.02 9.84 19.89 9.28 1.49 1.65 0.95 0.07 4.42 0.33 2.73 23.84 3.01 23.19 11.86 10.72 0.57 0.04 10.71 18.47 9.13 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 (Contd…) 108
497. TABLE 8 .9 WORKERS' REMITTANCES US $ million July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P COUNTRY 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 I. Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Sultanat-e-Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A Other Countries 13,186.6 211.0 177.7 88.7 9.0 582.6 38.5 318.8 3,687.0 382.7 2,848.9 1,367.6 1,411.3 67.3 2.7 1,521.1 2,334.5 986.2 13,921.6 282.8 177.2 83.2 5.2 619.0 37.8 321.3 4,104.7 384.8 2,750.2 1,485.0 1,213.8 49.8 1.5 1,946.0 2,186.2 1,023.2 15,837.7 318.8 160.0 85.6 7.1 681.4 30.8 329.2 4,729.4 530.5 3,109.5 1,512.5 1,550.0 45.5 1.5 2,180.2 2,467.7 1,207.4 18,719.8 389.0 171.0 78.1 7.8 748.1 27.6 350.2 5,630.4 685.7 4,231.8 1,750.7 2,412.0 67.6 1.5 2,376.2 2,702.7 1,321.3 19,916.8 448.4 176.0 93.7 13.2 774.0 34.9 380.9 5,968.3 819.4 4,365.3 1,418.3 2,877.7 66.5 2.8 2,579.7 2,524.7 1,738.4 19,351.3 396.4 187.4 94.1 14.3 763.8 41.3 404.4 5,469.8 760.9 4,328.0 1,426.8 2,845.3 50.5 5.5 2,341.7 2,452.9 2,096.2 19,913.6 355.7 211.1 127.8 22.8 774.2 47.8 371.1 4,858.8 657.3 4,359.0 1,132.7 3,173.7 47.6 5.0 2,892.4 2,838.0 2,397.7 21,739.4 340.2 213.0 123.5 23.0 725.8 43.5 385.9 5,003.0 667.2 4,617.3 1,488.0 3,075.5 37.2 16.7 3,412.3 3,309.1 2,875.7 23,132.3 417.1 313.4 392.2 66.4 738.6 69.7 760.2 6,613.5 994.3 5,611.8 810.4 4,768.2 25.1 8.1 2,569.0 1,742.8 2,843.3 II.Encashment* Total (I+II) 0.0 13,186.6 0.1 13,921.7 0.0 15,837.7 0.2 18,720.0 19,916.8 0.0 19,351.3 0.0 19,913.6 0.0 21,739.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 23,132.3 16,991.6 21,467.8 Source: State Bank of Pakistan - 16,991.6 229.2 137.8 92.4 21.5 504.6 25.6 344.0 3,925.7 548.8 2,349.3 1,121.2 2,390.5 17.1 23.4 2,554.1 2,880.4 3,378.3 21,467.8 350.7 394.4 310.1 65.7 636.7 78.7 667.3 5,731.8 803.7 4,526.3 647.3 3,806.6 52.3 20.1 2,900.5 1,901.8 3,100.0 * :Encashment and Profit in Pak Rs. of Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates (FEBCs) & Foreign Currency Bearer Certificates (FCBCs) TABLE 8.9 WORKERS' REMITTANCES COUNTRY Cash Flow Bahrain Canada Germany Japan Kuwait Norway Qatar Saudi Arabia Sultanat-e-Oman U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Dubai Sharjah Others U.K. U.S.A Other Countries Total P: Provisional 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 1.60 1.35 0.67 0.07 4.42 0.29 2.42 27.96 2.90 21.60 10.37 10.70 0.51 0.02 11.54 17.70 7.48 2.03 1.27 0.60 0.04 4.45 0.27 2.31 29.48 2.76 19.75 10.67 8.72 0.36 0.01 13.98 15.70 7.35 2.01 1.01 0.54 0.04 4.30 0.19 2.08 29.86 3.35 19.63 9.55 9.79 0.29 0.01 13.77 15.58 7.62 2.08 0.91 0.42 0.04 4.00 0.15 1.87 30.08 3.66 22.61 9.35 12.88 0.36 0.01 12.69 14.44 7.06 2.25 0.88 0.47 0.07 3.89 0.18 1.91 29.97 4.11 21.92 7.12 14.45 0.33 0.01 12.95 12.68 8.73 2.05 0.97 0.49 0.07 3.95 0.21 2.09 28.27 3.93 22.37 7.37 14.70 0.26 0.03 12.10 12.68 10.83 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.9 24.4 3.3 21.9 5.7 15.9 0.2 0.0 14.5 14.3 12.0 1.56 0.98 0.57 0.11 3.34 0.20 1.78 23.01 3.07 21.24 6.84 14.15 0.17 0.08 15.70 15.22 13.23 1.80 1.35 1.70 0.29 3.19 0.30 3.29 28.59 4.30 24.26 3.50 20.61 0.11 0.03 11.11 7.53 12.29 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 109 % Share July-March 2019-20 2020-21 P 1.35 0.81 0.54 0.13 2.97 0.15 2.02 23.10 3.23 13.83 6.60 14.07 0.10 0.14 15.03 16.95 19.88 1.63 1.84 1.44 0.31 2.97 0.37 3.11 26.70 3.74 21.08 3.02 17.73 0.24 0.09 13.51 8.86 14.44 100 100 100 Source: State Bank of Pakistan
498. TABLE 8 .10 GOLD & CASH FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES HELD & CONTROLLED BY STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN IN RUPPEES Rs million Period 2001 Jun* 170,786 Dec.* 252,249 2002 326,715 2003 616,683 2004 Gold 1 Cash 2 Total Low 100,825 High 252,249 Jun* 134,587 Dec.* 216,050 Low 65,083 High 216,050 Jun* 36,199 Dec.* 36,199 Low 34,015 High 36,199 501,291 259,497 501,291 286,695 461,271 223,298 461,271 40,020 40,020 36,199 40,020 662,663 532,661 662,673 576,640 620,734 492,641 620,744 40,043 41,929 40,020 41,929 691,051 638,332 634,239 702,725 642,746 590,027 585,934 660,742 48,305 48,305 41,929 48,305 2005 669,957 653,680 676,803 649,495 615,236 599,713 573,421 652,465 54,721 53,967 49,296 54,721 2006 771,157 772,963 646,033 772,963 694,840 695,786 592,016 716,000 76,317 77,177 54,017 77,177 2007 990,929 963,215 937,241 1,031,761 909,776 855,848 855,848 932,508 81,153 107,363 81,153 107,367 2008 R 784,159 761,302 477,146 931,355 652,439 619,658 353,900 811,637 131,720 141,644 116,489 143,112 2009 992,930 1,276,176 790,720 1,276,176 835,343 1,083,600 632,050 1,083,600 157,588 192,576 147,245 203,409 2010 R 1,413,294 1,537,264 1,205,987 1,537,264 1,193,108 1,288,062 1,011,828 1,288,062 220,186 249,203 189,972 249,203 2011 R 1,696,181 1,584,975 1,556,926 1,775,642 1,428,227 1,299,849 1,294,186 1,445,662 267,954 285,126 235,433 329,980 2012 1,438,697 1,314,155 1,299,786 1,584,430 1,125,621 980,592 954,440 1,257,965 313,077 333,563 303,074 348,805 2013 963,392 774,197 753,136 1,302,120 717,295 512,038 471,447 965,052 246,097 262,159 246,097 337,068 2014 1,307,687 1,449,882 754,644 1,449,882 1,038,379 1,200,107 481,286 1,200,107 269,308 249,275 248,274 288,264 2015 1,757,189 2,034,391 1,452,365 2,034,391 1,510,039 1,803,668 1,188,267 1,803,668 247,151 230,723 230,723 264,097 2016 2,325,799 2,307,147 2,001,893 2,404,776 2,038,628 2,055,633 1,759,993 2,128,176 287,170 251,514 241,900 291,829 2017 2,110,682 2,037,749 1,789,701 2,229,859 1,840,320 1,740,610 1,509,347 1,966,073 270,361 297,139 263,786 297,139 2018 1,693,453 1,631,886 1,590,720 1,906,897 1,377,842 1,262,167 1,258,993 1,598,188 315,611 369,719 302,540 369,719 2019 1,957,316 2,546,111 1,766,630 2,546,111 1,488,691 2,056,041 1,386,208 2,056,041 468,625 490,069 376,650 498,191 2020 2,923,806 3,006,316 2,546,495 3,021,459 2,306,312 2,379,317 1,960,583 2,379,317 617,495 626,999 508,578 681,860 2021 P 2,813,795 2,926,572 2,276,950 2,306,446 - : Not available P: Provisional R: Revised * : Last day of the month 1 : Gold excludes unsettled claims of Gold on RBI 2 : Cash includes Sinking fund, Foreign currencies cash holdings and excludes unsettled claims on RBI Note : Gold and Currency wise foreign exchange reserve are converted into US Dollar and then converted into PKR. Further, Low and High value may differ with given US $ due to echange rate votality. 110 536,845 620,126 Source: State Bank of Pakistan
499. TABLE 8 .11 EXCHANGE RATE POSITION (Pakistan Rupees in Terms of One Unit of Selected Foreign Currencies) Country Currency 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 (Average During the Year) 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 84.6185 Australia Dollar 32.1607 34.2101 41.0626 44.7141 44.7564 47.6760 56.1958 58.2931 73.9643 Bangladesh Taka 1.0826 1.0108 0.9842 0.9774 0.9121 0.8723 0.9088 1.1423 1.2118 1.2101 Canada Dollar 39.1719 38.8234 42.8526 47.5567 51.4986 53.5778 61.9742 67.5867 79.4785 85.4711 China Yuan 7.4149 7.0613 6.9497 7.1676 7.4161 7.7526 8.6128 11.4930 12.2840 12.9120 Hong Kong Dollar 7.8720 7.4990 7.3970 7.6176 7.7127 7.7772 8.0273 10.1246 10.8074 11.0019 India Rupee 1.2787 1.2219 1.2682 1.3253 1.3389 1.3746 1.5417 1.6468 1.7995 1.8881 Iran Rial 0.0307 0.0073 0.0069 0.0067 0.0066 0.0066 0.0067 0.0081 0.0084 0.0082 Japan Yen 0.4884 0.4888 0.5203 0.5558 0.5216 0.5122 0.5711 0.8012 0.9164 1.0301 Kuwait Dinar 200.7861 194.5677 194.3681 202.3816 205.3258 209.8118 228.2954 281.2742 291.6604 304.4159 Malaysia Ringgit 16.1621 15.3944 15.1532 15.6244 16.0515 17.0649 18.9021 22.3290 24.8037 27.7427 Nepal Rupee 0.8033 0.7515 0.7802 0.8169 0.8296 0.8575 0.9593 1.0285 1.1251 1.1800 Norway Krone 7.0288 8.1021 8.2191 9.1841 9.2141 9.7161 11.6417 12.4113 14.0698 14.7356 Singapore Dollar 33.9503 33.3406 33.5098 35.6797 36.4149 39.1651 43.6846 53.5502 59.6004 66.1304 Sri Lanka Rupee 0.6624 0.6057 0.5920 0.5813 0.5872 0.5649 0.5676 0.7024 0.7336 0.7694 Sweden Krona 5.9117 6.691 7.5195 8.2949 7.7867 8.6143 9.8890 10.4330 11.5692 12.8272 Switzerland Franc 37.1824 41.4643 44.2489 49.0657 46.8551 49.2385 56.6736 70.0527 78.9664 89.9297 S. Arabia Riyal 16.3792 15.5961 15.3488 15.8027 15.9608 16.1656 16.6973 20.9341 22.3482 22.8047 Thailand Baht 1.4000 1.3742 - 1.4763 1.5005 1.6789 1.8786 2.2651 2.5326 2.7963 UAE Dirham 16.7231 15.9261 15.6727 16.1586 16.2972 16.5107 17.0391 21.3856 22.8216 23.2883 UK Pound 88.5691 92.7433 100.1672 110.2891 106.4344 117.1852 125.2948 126.0915 132.4866 135.9640 USA Dollar 61.4258 58.4995 57.5745 59.3576 59.8566 60.6342 62.5465 78.4983 83.8017 85.5017 EMU Euro 54.9991 61.3083 68.6226 75.5359 72.8661 79.1763 92.1700 107.4327 116.4991 116.5981 IMF SDR 78.0627 79.3198 83.2470 88.5631 86.9594 90.7726 98.6265 119.9599 129.7431 - : Not available 133.3407 (Contd…) 111
500. TABLE 8 .11 EXCHANGE RATE POSITION (Pakistan Rupees in Terms of One Unit of Selected Foreign Currencies) Country Currency 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 (Average During the Year) 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 July-March 2020-21 P Australia Dollar 91.8961 99.2813 94.4043 84.6706 75.8551 78.9703 85.1230 97.1750 105.9281 Bangladesh Taka 1.1385 1.2059 1.3232 1.3045 1.3327 1.3263 1.3414 1.6203 1.8636 1.9093 Canada Dollar 88.8631 96.3207 96.1939 86.6031 78.6541 78.9236 86.5105 102.7630 117.6982 124.4677 China Yuan 14.0507 15.5063 16.7639 16.3639 16.1983 15.4059 16.9332 19.9618 22.4714 24.2806 Hong Kong Dollar 11.4768 12.4764 13.2668 13.0664 13.4416 13.5015 14.0663 17.3843 20.2849 20.9023 India Rupee 1.7836 1.7658 1.6757 1.6354 1.5735 1.5778 1.6903 1.9323 2.1845 2.1997 Iran Rial 0.0079 0.0079 0.0041 0.0037 0.0035 0.0033 0.0030 0.0032 0.0038 0.0038 Japan Yen 1.1352 1.1116 1.0180 0.8865 0.8959 0.9611 0.9965 1.2257 1.4617 1.5351 Kuwait Dinar 322.3284 342.4219 364.0262 346.1203 345.2872 345.0024 364.9610 448.8278 516.4404 530.9886 Malaysia Ringgit 28.9142 31.3927 31.6823 29.3817 25.2457 24.4675 27.0716 33.0115 37.5510 39.2726 Nepal Rupee 1.1164 1.1044 1.0477 1.0222 0.9838 0.9861 1.0565 1.2070 1.3770 1.3683 Norway Krone 15.5404 16.8037 17.0596 14.2794 12.4110 12.4644 13.7701 16.0675 16.9236 18.2446 Singapore Dollar 70.7611 78.0767 81.6310 77.3079 74.9776 75.1927 81.9160 99.7173 114.1680 119.8411 Sri Lanka Rupee 0.7625 0.7524 0.7862 0.7701 0.7372 0.7031 0.7107 0.7853 0.8669 0.8611 Sweden Krona 13.2669 14.6811 15.7629 13.1103 12.4006 11.8827 13.2473 14.8779 16.3999 18.7992 Switzerland Franc 99.3752 102.7673 113.7726 107.4720 106.3904 105.5866 113.2043 136.7574 161.7409 178.0510 S. Arabia Riyal 23.7943 25.8099 27.4313 27.0040 27.7996 27.9260 29.2998 36.2985 42.1047 43.1704 Thailand Baht 2.8943 3.1909 3.2278 3.1076 2.9393 3.0034 3.3964 4.2335 5.0949 5.2769 UAE Dirham 24.2894 26.3384 28.0070 27.5787 28.3865 28.5170 29.9164 37.0585 43.0181 44.0887 UK Pound 141.1402 151.5965 167.2207 159.4351 154.4878 132.7123 148.0433 175.9308 199.0651 215.2232 USA Dollar 89.2359 96.7272 102.8591 101.2947 104.2351 104.6971 109.8444 136.0901 158.0253 161.9699 EMU Euro 119.1998 125.1227 139.4950 121.6726 115.6294 114.0341 131.0859 155.0710 174.5851 192.4414 IMF SDR P: Provisional 138.9409 147.2259 158.0043 146.9546 145.8777 143.8126 156.7849 189.5557 217.2951 230.5854 Source: State Bank of Pakistan 112 119.6485
501. TABLE 9 .1 PUBLIC & PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT OUTSTANDING (AS ON 31-03-2021) Country/Creditor $ Million I. BILATERAL a. Paris Club Countries AUSTRIA BELGIUM CANADA FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY ITALY JAPAN KOREA THE NETHERLANDS NORWAY RUSSIA SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES Amount Sub Total I.a. Paris Club Countries b. Non Paris Club Countries CHINA KUWAIT LIBYA SAUDI ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Sub Total I.b. Non-Paris Club Countries c. Commercial Banks d. Safe Deposit 24 18 50 3 1,529 1,368 169 5,416 434 85 10 68 59 86 78 5 1,037 10,438 14,180 157 1 954 28 15,320 9,776 4,000 39,534 Total I. (a+b+c+d) II. MULTILATERAL & Others ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) 13,457 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT (IBRD) 1,743 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION (IDA) 15,284 Other 2,237 ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK (AIIB) 835 EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK (EIB) ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK (IDB) 963 INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT (IFAD) 309 NORDIC DEVELOPMENT FUND 7 OPEC FUND 82 ECO TRADE BANK 41 Sub Total II. Multilateral & Others 32,721 III. BONDS 5,300 IV. IDB (SHORT TERM CREDIT) 451 V. LOCAL CURRENCY BONDS (TBs & PIBs) 730 VI. PAKISTAN BANAO CERTIFICATES (PBCs), NAYA PAKISTAN CERTIFICATES (NPCs) 450 Grand Total: (I+II+III+IV+V+VI) 79,185 Note: Excluding IMF Loans Source: Economic Affairs Division 115
502. TABLE 9 .2 COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS OF LOANS AND GRANTS (BY TYPE) $ Million Non-Project Aid Project Aid Total* Non-Food Food BOP Relief Fiscal Year Commitment Disbursement Commitment Disbursement Commitment Disbursement Commitment Disbursement Commitment Disbursement Commitment Disbursement 2000-01 396 1,030 - - 91 23 1,128 1,128 21 5 1,637 2,186 2001-02 973 741 - - 40 114 2,589 1,880 0 21 3,603 2,756 1,089 1,057 11 8 1,800 1,920 1,263 755 2 3 2,479 1,380 2002-03 700 846 - - - 2003-04 1,214 622 - - - - - - 2004-05 2,089 918 - - 2005-06 3,250 2,084 - - 2006-07 1,365 1,308 133 2007-08 2,440 1,565 - 2008-09 2,296 1,272 125 175 80 9 22 18 1,202 1,803 2 3,291 2,723 10 1,225 1,262 1 1 4,498 3,357 12 3,381 2,649 2,058 3 3 4,151 - 1,309 2,013 2 2 3,751 3,660 - 3,947 3,238 2 2 6,389 4,688 2009-10 3,729 1,213 100 100 - - 2,846 2,305 68 49 6,744 3,668 2010-11 2,384 1,076 - - - - 397 648 1,799 895 4,580 2,620 2011-12 3,341 1,753 100 73 - - 1,135 949 103 314 4,679 3,089 2012-13 1,848 2,071 100 51 - - 708 466 4 268 2,660 2,855 2013-14 9,809 2,015 125 80 - - 5,019 4,612 4 133 14,957 6,840 2014-15 2,038 2,449 - 10 - - 2,671 3,163 12 134 4,721 5,756 2015-16 12,325 2,337 - - - - 5,069 5,199 6 15 17,400 7,551 2016-17 4,257 3,609 - - - - 7,803 7,072 11 1 12,071 10,682 2017-18 3,510 4,460 - - - - 8,566 8,173 2 45 12,078 12,678 2018-19 1,280 3,466 - - - - 7,129 7,352 1 1 8,410 10,819 2019-20 1,962 3,117 - - - - 7,922 8,783 - 9,884 11,900 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 2,269 1,196 - - - - 6,007 6,216 - 8,276 7,413 *: Excluding IMF Loans 1 Source: Economic Affairs Division Notes: Project Aid includes commitments and disbursements for Earthquake Rehabilitation & Construction BOP includes commitment and disbursement for Bonds, Commercial Banks, BOP Programme Loans, IDB Short-term credit and Tokyo Pledges Relief includes commitment and disbursement for Afghan Refugees, IDPs, Earthquake and Flood Assistance 116
503. TABLE 9 .3 ANNUAL COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS, SERVICE PAYMENTS AND EXTERNAL DEBT OUTSTANDING Transactions during period Service Payments*** Debt Outstanding @ Fiscal Year Disbursed* Undisbursed* Commitment** Disbursement** Principal Interest Debt Servicing as % of Total Export Receipts Foreign Exchange Earning GDP 2000-01 25,608 2,860 1,167 1,846 1,004 663 1,668 18.7% 11.7% 2.3% 2001-02 27,215 3,504 3,293 2,423 772 538 1,309 14.3% 8.5% 1.8% 2002-03 28,301 3,811 1,747 1,729 971 613 1,583 14.4% 7.7% 1.9% 2003-04 28,900 5,392 2,125 1,372 2,513 702 3,215 25.8% 14.6% 3.3% 2004-05 30,813 4,975 3,113 2,452 1,072 669 1,742 12.0% 6.5% 1.6% 2005-06 33,033 5,838 4,507 3,163 1,424 712 2,136 12.9% 6.7% 1.6% 2006-07 35,673 6,277 4,059 3,356 1,283 819 2,102 12.2% 6.4% 1.4% 2007-08 40,770 6,540 3,398 3,160 1,130 949 2,079 10.2% 5.6% 1.2% 2008-09 42,567 7,451 5,792 4,032 2,566 873 3,439 18.0% 9.7% 2.0% 2009-10 43,187 9,634 6,171 3,099 2,339 756 3,095 15.7% 8.1% 1.7% 2010-11 46,458 9,797 4,580 2,620 1,925 762 2,687 10.6% 5.6% 1.3% 2011-12 46,349 10,316 4,679 3,089 1,534 717 2,251 9.1% 4.7% 1.0% 2012-13 44,350 9,954 1,278 2,486 1,903 709 2,612 10.5% 5.2% 1.1% 2013-14 48,978 15,770 11,263 3,760 2,074 736 2,810 11.2% 5.5% 1.1% 2014-15 47,832 18,559 3,621 3,601 2,262 949 3,211 13.3% 6.1% 1.2% 2015-16 52,979 20,669 14,215 4,693 3,202 1,092 4,294 19.5% 8.4% 1.5% 2016-17 57,643 21,524 5,651 4,859 5,195 1,242 6,437 29.3% 12.3% 2.1% 2017-18 65,526 19,573 4,120 4,320 4,175 1,636 5,811 23.5% 10.5% 1.8% 2018-19 70,601 17,739 3,119 5,578 7,054 2,067 9,121 37.6% 16.3% 3.3% 2019-20 74,558 19,032 5,803 7,327 8,569 1,990 10,559 46.9% 19.5% 4.0% 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 79,185 20,660 3,555 2,665 4,426 1,032 5,458 29.2% 11.3% 1.8% * : Excluding grants Source: Economic Affairs Division ** : Excluding IMF, Short Term Credit, Commercial Credits and Bonds *** : Excluding IMF Loans @: Public and Publically Guaranteed Loans (Excluding IMF) 117
504. TABLE 9 .4 DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS OF FOREIGN LOANS (Paid in Foreign Exchange) US$ Million Fiscal Year I. PARIS CLUB COUNTRIES 1. Australia 2. Austria 3. Belgium 4. Canada 5. Denmark 6. France 7. Finland 8. Germany 9. Italy 10. Japan 11. Korea 12. Norway 13. The Netherlands 14. Russia 15. Sweden 16. Spain 17. Switzerland 18. USA 19. UK TOTAL (I) II. NON-PARIS CLUB COUNTRIES 1. China 2. Czecho-Slovakia 3. Kuwait 4. Libya 5. Saudi Arabia 6. UAE 7. EXIM Bank (FE) 8. PL-480 9. CCC TOTAL (II) Kind 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest 3.66 2.98 1.01 1.75 2.72 0.99 39.78 77.53 0.18 0.06 17.88 16.51 0.65 0.22 61.46 117.64 14.49 6.91 0.57 0.27 0.35 2.97 3.71 5.71 4.68 1.63 0.82 1.85 2.88 1.23 5.34 28.67 0.28 0.16 160.46 267.07 4.92 3.01 1.22 1.77 3.12 0.75 52.27 79.17 0.21 0.05 14.46 26.69 0.76 0.16 55.90 103.27 16.63 5.93 0.65 0.20 0.51 3.22 4.26 5.51 5.37 1.23 0.96 1.78 3.43 3.89 6.12 28.41 0.34 0.07 171.13 265.12 3.77 2.31 1.22 1.49 3.56 0.67 53.41 66.81 0.42 0.07 16.85 25.12 0.83 0.14 51.16 88.09 19.01 5.48 0.72 0.18 0.51 2.96 4.86 5.40 6.13 1.10 1.09 1.75 3.72 1.09 7.00 29.40 0.37 0.09 174.63 232.18 3.77 1.99 1.32 1.34 4.08 0.80 57.91 60.55 0.27 0.05 15.99 24.76 0.92 0.16 62.49 90.45 22.18 6.06 0.80 0.17 0.54 2.59 5.57 5.05 7.03 1.32 1.25 1.78 4.10 0.98 8.03 27.68 0.40 0.09 196.64 225.82 3.99 1.77 1.50 1.24 4.68 1.16 79.26 57.91 0.31 0.08 39.52 22.37 1.05 0.19 175.52 93.76 25.85 7.96 0.89 0.22 2.44 2.54 6.39 4.74 8.05 1.94 2.57 1.74 5.23 0.96 25.51 27.26 0.40 0.07 383.13 225.90 3.93 1.69 1.84 1.24 5.36 1.34 109.60 58.56 0.35 0.09 66.75 22.92 1.24 0.22 281.79 89.94 30.20 9.33 1.08 0.26 4.65 2.69 7.31 4.42 9.22 2.25 3.91 1.88 6.41 0.91 43.15 26.11 0.48 0.06 577.25 223.90 2.81 1.45 2.02 1.09 6.13 1.90 115.57 52.72 0.40 0.12 67.80 19.90 1.40 0.30 293.96 86.18 33.99 11.81 1.20 0.34 4.56 2.48 8.37 4.03 10.55 3.21 4.13 1.98 7.10 0.85 45.03 24.72 0.53 0.07 605.53 213.13 Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest 72.73 74.58 8.07 2.84 76.12 4.20 4.11 1.88 6.32 1.20 1.15 2.94 8.46 15.75 176.98 103.38 121.26 103.49 7.06 3.12 166.67 7.55 4.51 3.03 7.26 1.17 1.15 2.92 9.71 15.21 317.62 136.47 127.99 139.30 7.55 3.06 121.93 5.70 4.51 1.70 8.30 1.11 1.15 1.53 11.10 14.59 282.54 167.00 170.39 141.46 10.28 3.20 111.22 5.39 6.35 1.72 9.51 1.06 1.15 2.89 12.72 13.93 321.62 169.65 712.30 205.75 9.48 3.79 167.13 7.83 6.35 1.55 10.90 1.15 3.15 2.86 14.58 13.08 923.87 236.02 216.09 240.34 11.23 4.10 30.73 4.29 6.35 1.38 12.48 1.93 5.14 2.75 16.69 12.16 298.70 266.94 341.99 388.16 12.12 3.99 32.85 5.11 6.35 1.00 14.28 3.55 4.78 2.56 19.10 11.10 431.46 415.46 118 2019-20 1.52 0.66 1.09 0.49 3.38 0.84 66.64 25.68 0.50 0.08 34.48 10.06 0.76 0.12 179.64 48.20 22.28 5.89 0.65 0.15 2.28 2.08 4.62 1.85 5.82 1.41 2.16 0.95 3.95 0.41 23.76 11.81 0.29 0.03 353.82 110.71 421.58 450.83 12.02 3.48 29.99 10.66 6.32 0.81 7.89 1.82 2.35 1.27 10.55 5.12 490.70 473.99 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 0.270 0.160 0.230 0.550 0.030 4.070 0.330 4.780 0.860 130.880 160.840 10.810 3.360 141.690 164.200 (Contd..)
505. TABLE 9 .4 DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS OF FOREIGN LOANS (Paid in Foreign Exchange) US$ Million Fiscal Year III. MULTILATERAL 1. ADB Kind 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest 737.09 101.56 177.06 13.88 222.63 92.77 8.11 1.70 17.44 4.83 390.29 11.19 1,552.62 225.93 728.13 82.58 165.64 8.11 236.29 96.22 4.80 1.62 23.60 10.20 412.95 15.74 1,571.42 214.47 721.22 80.63 156.07 5.92 253.49 113.08 5.28 1.65 31.61 13.65 409.09 18.37 1,576.77 233.29 755.35 84.76 147.32 8.03 256.76 125.36 5.45 1.67 44.58 16.38 734.53 47.59 1,944.00 283.80 778.36 107.43 128.00 13.41 278.96 151.12 6.60 1.70 50.78 18.11 877.89 51.46 2,120.60 343.23 757.57 138.85 136.75 17.08 344.82 173.97 7.94 1.81 58.52 20.74 836.26 61.25 2,141.86 413.69 744.00 184.14 117.24 41.96 370.17 178.42 7.76 1.83 80.83 29.80 1,082.08 52.02 2,402.09 488.16 803.00 201.83 85.00 40.61 452.27 187.21 7.75 1.93 93.08 39.76 836.67 48.36 2,277.77 519.70 658.300 122.480 87.860 17.590 396.330 166.090 5.600 1.500 61.850 21.800 718.640 36.710 1,928.580 366.170 Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest 1.87 0.14 3.02 0.83 0.22 8.08 0.85 1.59 0.12 3.02 1.24 0.67 0.19 8.37 0.63 0.84 0.06 4.45 1.61 31.34 0.88 8.17 0.40 0.57 0.07 6.35 2.04 1.33 0.70 6.96 0.33 0.57 0.07 6.08 2.37 1.33 1.47 5.46 0.36 0.61 0.07 6.12 3.09 1.33 1.64 5.00 0.34 0.58 0.06 9.45 2.47 41.34 1.83 5.00 0.34 0.27 0.02 9.44 2.42 1.32 1.99 0.07 0.400 0.040 5.630 1.180 0.670 1.350 0.070 Principal Interest Principal Interest 12.97 2.04 6.95 13.63 9.13 172.50 12.29 217.29 15.24 225.00 55.01 240.22 58.15 1,003.79 65.88 1,017.23 70.15 1,138.87 284.18 1,151.93 289.32 2,552.00 443.20 2,608.37 447.90 4,434.72 485.26 4,445.75 489.76 2,344.030 285.170 2,350.730 287.810 2. Saindak Bonds Principal Interest Principal 110.85 - 110.82 - 301.43 - 500.00 354.33 - 750.00 366.95 - 422.83 - 1,000.00 502.66 - 1,000.00 395.84 - 213.400 - 3. US Dollar Bonds (NHA) Interest Principal - - - - - - - Interest - - - - - - - 2. IBRD 3. IDA 4. IFAD 5. IDB 6. IDB (ST) TOTAL (III) IV. DEVELOPMENT FUNDS 1. NORDIC 2. OPEC Fund 3. Turkey (EXIM Bank) 4. E.I.Bank 5. ANZ Bank / Standard Charted Bank TOTAL (IV) V. GLOBAL BONDS 1. Euro Bonds TOTAL (V) TOTAL (I+II+III+IV+V) VI. OTHERS 1. NBP 2. Bank of Indosuez 3. NBP Bahrain 4. ANZ Bank 5. US Dollar Bonds 6. Cash (ST) 7. OTF 8 Exchange Loss 9 Unspent Balance TOTAL (VI) TOTAL (I+II+III+IV+V+VI) Grand Total (P+I) Note: Excluding IMF Loans - Principal - - - 500.00 750.00 - 1,000.00 1,000.00 Interest 110.85 110.82 301.43 354.33 366.95 422.83 502.66 395.84 213.400 Principal Interest Total (P+I) 1,903.02 709.27 2,612.29 2,073.80 735.99 2,809.79 2,251.23 949.13 3,200.37 3,202.48 1,091.75 4,294.23 5,194.82 1,242.24 6,437.06 4,169.74 1,616.69 5,786.43 7,047.45 2,067.31 9,114.76 8,568.04 1,990.00 10,558.04 4,425.780 1,032.440 5,458.220 Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest Principal Interest 0.19 0.19 1,903.02 709.46 0.16 0.16 2,073.80 736.15 10.69 10.69 2,261.92 949.13 3,202.48 1,091.75 6.73 5,194.82 1,242.24 19.35 5.28 5.28 19.35 4,175.02 1,636.04 6.73 7,054.18 2,067.31 2,612.48 2,809.95 3,211.05 4,294.23 6,437.06 5,811.06 9,121.50 119 - 1.12 8,569.16 1,990.00 - 4,425.78 1,032.44 10,559.16 5,458.22 Source: Economic Affairs Division
506. TABLE 9 .5 TERMS OF FOREIGN LOANS/CREDITS CONTRACTED BY PAKISTAN* 2012-13 Lending Country/Agency A. 2013-14 Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization $ Million Commission(%) years $ Million Commission(%) years Paris Club Countries 1. Germany 27.3 0.75 Fixed 2. Japan 49.3 LIBOR Yen 6 Month + 0.34 40 3.France 83.3 EIBOR+0.93 20 4. Italy 88.9 Sub-Total A B. LIBOR 6 months + 0.93 15 LIBOR 6 months + 2.8 10 88.9 40 159.9 Non-Paris Club 1. China 448.0 6,493.8 1 , 2 and 6 Fixed 28 to 30 LIBOR 12 months + 1.25 and 2 Fixed For Fixed 6 and for LIBOR 25 2. Kuwait 3. Saudi Arabia 100.0 LIBOR 12 months + 1.25 10 282.8 4. Korea Sub-Total B C. 548.0 6,776.6 Multilateral 1. IDB Short-term 1,006.5 2. IDB 227.0 LIBOR 6 months + 1.35 24 264.4 5.25 Fixed, LIBOR 12 Months + 4.5, LIBOR 6 Months + 4.5, LIBOR Euro 12 Months+2.3 1 2 to 2.5 Fixed 25 3. IDA 242.9 1.25 Fixed 25 1,554.1 1.25 to 2 Fixed 30 4. ADB 170.8 1.5 & LIBOR 6 months + 0.6 20-28 2,148.8 2 Fixed & LIBOR 6 months + 0.6 30 1.75 Fixed 25 5. OPEC 50.0 6.IBRD 7. IFAD 8. EIB 136.5 9. E.C.O BANK 30.0 Sub-Total C D. 640.7 1 5,190.3 1. SCB (London) 172.5 LIBOR 3 Months + 4 1 2. SUISSE AG, UBL, ABL 200.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 4 1 - 372.5 Bonds 1. Eurobonds 1,000.0 7.25 Fixed 5 2. Eurobonds 1,000.0 8.25 Fixed 10 3. Sukuk - Sub-Total (E) - Total (A+B+C+D+E) 2,000.0 1,277.6 14,499.2 2014-15 Lending Country/Agency A. 30 Commercial Banks Sub-Total (D) E. LIBOR + spread, Euribor + spread and Fixed LIBOR 6 MONTHS + 2 2015-16 Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization $ Million Commission(%) years $ Million Commission(%) years 1. Germany 44.6 0.75 Fixed 40 2. Japan 109.8 LIBOR Yen 6 Months + 0.1 30 to 40 3.France 46.3 EIBOR + 0.25 20 139.8 0.10 Fixed 40 9,422.7 2 and 5.2 Fixed 18 to 20 55.0 2 Fixed 20 Paris Club Countries 4. Italy 5. Korea Sub-Total A B. 0.0 340.4 Non-Paris Club 1. China 37.7 Fixed 2 20 2. Kuwait 3. Saudi Arabia Sub-Total B C. 37.7 9,477.7 Multilateral 1. IDB Short-term 488.8 5.0126 Fixed, LIBOR 6 Months 4.5, LIBOR EURO 12 Months 1 2. IDB 1,237.0 4.9 Fixed, LIBOR 12 months + 4.5 to 5.5 1 100.0 2 Fixed, LIBOR 6 months +1.35 16 3. IDA 1,425.4 1.25 to 2 Fixed 30 1,598.6 1.83 to 2 Fixed 24 4. ADB 762.1 2 Fixed & LIBOR 6 Months + 0.6 30 1,713.1 2 Fixed & LIBOR 6 months + 0.6 6 to 24 100.0 LIBOR 6 months + 0.75 18 31.6 Fixed 0.75 35.0 LIBOR 6 months + 2.5 1 100.0 LIBOR 6 months + 0.75 20 5. OPEC 6. IBRD 7. IFAD 67.9 8 8. EIB 9. E.C.O BANK 10. AIIB Sub-Total C D. 2,707.9 4,951.6 Commercial Banks 1. SCB (London) 100.1 LIBOR 3 Months + 4.25 4 2. SUISSE AG, UBL, ABL 983.0 LIBOR 3 months +2.66 & 3.25 1 3. Dubai Bank 125.0 LIBOR 6 months + 2.5 1 340.0 LIBOR 3 months + 3.75 & 4.1 1 8.25 Fixed 10 4. Noor Bank Sub-Total (D) E. 100.1 1,448.0 Bonds 1. Sukuk 1,000.0 6.75 Fixed 5 2. Eurobonds 500.0 Sub-Total (E) 1,000.0 500.0 Total (A+B+C+D+E) 3,845.7 16,717.7 *Excluding IMF Loans (Contd.) 120
507. TABLE 9 .5 TERMS OF FOREIGN LOANS/CREDITS CONTRACTED BY PAKISTAN* 2016-17 Lending Country/Agency A. 2017-18 Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization $ Million Commission(%) years $ Million Commission(%) years 2. Japan 23.8 Fixed 0.1 & LIBOR Yen 06 Months + 0.1 30 3.France 114.0 LIBOR EURO 06 Months + 0.52 20 192.1 LIBOR EURO 06 Months + 0.47 & 0.52 20 76.3 Fixed 0.1 40 Paris Club Countries 1. Germany 4. Italy 5. Korea Sub-Total A B. 214.1 192.1 Non-Paris Club 1. China** 729.4 Fixed 2 & LIBOR 06 Months + 2.8 20 2. Kuwait 500.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 1 2 14.9 Fixed 2.5 21 Fixed 4 & LIBOR 12 Months + 2.22 1 3. Saudi Arabia Sub-Total B C. 729.4 514.9 Multilateral 1. IDB Short-term 700.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.22 1 694.4 2. IDB 3. IDA 761.2 1.88 to 3.2 Fixed 25 1,386.3 Fixed 2 to 3.36 25 4. ADB 2,001.0 2 Fixed & LIBOR 6 Months + 0.6 25 1,589.6 Fixed 2 & LIBOR 6 Months + 0.6 24 6. IBRD 690.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.5 & 0.75 21 855.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.75 21 7. IFAD 50.0 Fixed 1.75 20 82.6 Fixed 0.75 40 LIBOR 12 Months + 1.4 1 5. OPEC 8. EIB 9. E.C.O BANK 40.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 1.9 2 10.AIIB 300.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.75 20 700.0 Fixed 4.47 10 200.0 1,000.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 2 to 3 1&9 1,200.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2 1 80.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.6 2 220.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2 1 Sub-Total C D. 4,542.2 4,607.9 Commercial Banks 1. SCB (London) 2. SUISSE AG, UBL, ABL 3. Dubai Bank 4. Noor Bank 445.0 5. Bank of China 6. China Development Bank 7. Citi Bank E. LIBOR 3 Months + 2.3 to 2.5 2 300.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.93 3 200.0 LIBOR CHF 3 MONTHS + 2 3 1,700.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 3.02 3 1,000.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 3 3 267.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.7 2 1,000.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 3.25 3 1,500.0 Fixed 6.875 10 1,000.0 Fixed 5.625 5 275.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.7 2 8. ICBC-China 300.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.75 2 Sub-Total (D) 4,720.0 4,167.0 Bonds 1. Bonds 2021 1,000.0 Fixed 5.5 5 2. Bonds 2027 3. Sukuk 2022 Sub-Total (E) 1,000.0 2,500.0 Total (A+B+C+D+E) 11,205.7 11,981.9 Lending Country/Agency Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization $ Million Commission(%) years $ Million Commission(%) years 148.0 LIBOR EURO 6 MONTH +0.25 20 2018-19 A. 2019-20 Paris Club Countries 1. Germany 2. Japan 3.France 4. Italy 5. Korea Sub-Total A B. 148.0 23.0 Interest Free 28 80.0 Fixed +1.5 25 103.0 Non-Paris Club 1. China** 2,000.0 LIBOR 12 Months +1 1 926.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.7 1 555.8 3. IDA 615.6 Fixed 1.25 30 1,449.0 4. ADB 355.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.6 25 2,823.3 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.6 25 652.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.5 25 LIBOR 6 MONTHS +0.6 16 2. Kuwait 3. Saudi Arabia Sub-Total B C. 2,000.0 0.0 Multilateral 1. IDB Short-term 2. IDB LIBOR 12 Months + 2.7 1 Fixed 1.25 30 200.0 5. OPEC 6. IBRD 7. IFAD 36.0 8. EIB 9. E.C.O BANK 40.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 1.9 1 10.AIIB 540.0 Sub-Total C D. 1,936.6 6,256.1 Commercial Banks 1. SCB (London) 200.0 2. SUISSE AG, UBL, ABL 495.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 3.25 1 200.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 3.25 1 3. Dubai Bank 685.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2 1 445.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.2 1 500.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 2.93 and 2.65 2 and 3 1,700.0 LIBOR 6 Months +3 3 150.0 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.2 267.5 LIBOR 6 Months + 2.20 4. Noor Bank 225.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.25 2,183.7 SHIBOR 6 Months + 2.5 3 300.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 2.75 2 274.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 2.20 1 5. Bank of China 6. China Development Bank 7. Citi Bank 8. ICBC China 9. Ajman Bank Sub-Total (D) 4,162.7 3,462.5 Total (A+B+C+D) 8,247.2 9,821.6 *Excluding IMF Loans ** Including SAFE Deposits 1 Source: Economic Affairs Division 121
508. TABLE 9 .5 TERMS OF FOREIGN LOANS/CREDITS CONTRACTED BY PAKISTAN* 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) Lending Country/Agency Amount Interest Rate/ Amortization $ Million Commission(%) years Fixed 0.75 40 LIBOR 12 Months + 1 1 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.7 1 Fixed 2 30 A. Paris Club Countries 1. Germany 2. Japan 3. France 31.7 76.3 4. Italy 5. Korea Sub-Total A 107.9 B. Non-Paris Club 1. China ** 1,000.0 2. Kuwait 3. Saudi Arabia Sub-Total B 1,000.0 C. Multilateral 1. IDB Short-term 480.0 2. IDB 3. IDA 1,621.3 4. ADB 600.0 Fixed 2 & LIBOR 6 Months + 0.6 25 5. OPEC 50.0 Fixed 2 10 6. IBRD 854.0 LIBOR 6 Months + 0.5 30 321.8 LIBOR 6 MONTHS +0.6 23 7. IFAD 8. EIB 9. E.C.O BANK 10.AIIB Sub-Total C 3,927.1 D. Commercial Banks 1. SCB (London) 400.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.4 1 2. SUISSE AG, UBL, ABL 215.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2 1 3. DUBAI BANK 825.0 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.05 1 LIBOR 3 Months + 2.75 2 LIBOR 12 Months + 2.05 1 4. NOOR BANK PJSC 5. BANK OF CHINA SR.BD. 6. CHINA DEV BANK 7. CITI BANK 8. ICBC-CHINA 9. EMIRATES NBD 1,300.0 370.0 10. AJMAN BANK PJSC Sub-Total (D) 3,110.0 Total (A+B+C+D) 8,145.1 * Excluding IMF Source: Economic Affairs Division ** China SAFE Deposit 122
509. TABLE 9 .6 GRANT ASSISTANCE AGREEMENTS SIGNED 2012-13 I. Paris Club Countries 1. Australia 2. Austria 3. Canada 4. France 5. Germany 6. Japan 7. The Netherlands 8. Norway 9. Korea 10. Switzerland 11. UK 12. USA 13. Italy 14. Denmark Sub-Total (I) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 0.5 13.1 28.4 12.4 1,173.3 70.0 1,297.6 3.4 18.4 19.2 150.0 191.0 9.0 79.7 534.4 623.0 6.5 56.8 38.1 43.0 144.5 1.1 10.7 49.8 677.3 - II. Non Paris Club Countries 1. China 2. Iran 3. UAE 4. Oman 5. Saudi Arabia Sub-Total (II) 11.4 11.4 26.7 26.7 123.9 123.9 4.5 53.5 58.0 III. Multilateral 1. ADB 2. EEC / EU 3. Islamic Development Bank 4. IDA 5. IBRD 6. IFAD 7. AIIB 8. UN and Specialised Agencies 9. UNDP Special Grant 10. World Food Programme 11. UNFPA Sub-Total (III) 19.6 39.4 59.0 200.7 9.0 18.1 2.4 230.2 127.2 0.5 127.8 247.6 230.2 0.6 478.3 111.2 114.9 15.6 34.8 4.2 - 1.0 1.3 1.3 682.1 1.1 10.0 11.1 864.9 1.9 1.9 95.7 IV. Relief Assistance for A. Afghan Refugees B. Earthquake 1. Afghanistan 2. Algeria 3. Austria 4. Azerbaijan 5. Bhutan 6. Brunei 7. China 8. Cyprus 9. Indonesia 10. Jordan 11. Malaysia 12. Morocco 13. Oman 14. Pak-Turk foundation 15. Saudi Arabia 16. South Korea 17. Thailand 18. Turkey for FATA TDPs 19. UK 20. ADB 21. WB (IDA) 22. Germany 23. IDB 24. Mauritius Sub-Total (IV) Grand Total (I+II+III+IV) 10.0 14.2 1,382.3 447.9 1.0 875.6 123 2018-19 ($ Million) 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 2019-20 738.9 11.6 26.2 37.8 5.7 3.0 8.7 13.5 13.5 - 21.2 - - 21.2 16.1 16.1 - - 3.5 19.2 4.0 130.9 2.0 - 5.0 14.6 10.2 15.0 2.9 1.5 - 2.0 54.9 4.1 - 136.9 49.1 61.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 162.6 5.9 64.0 69.8 0.3 0.3 62.9 130.8 Source : Economic Affairs Division
510. TABLE 9 .7 TOTAL LOANS AND CREDITS CONTRACTED ($ Million) Lending Country/Agency A. Paris Club Countries 1. Austria 2. Australia 3. Belgium 4. Canada 5. France 6. Germany 7. Japan 8. Korea 9. Netherlands 10. Norway 11. Spain 12. UK 13. USA 14. Italy 15. Sweden Sub-Total (A) 2012-13 2013-14 88.9 88.9 83.3 27.3 49.3 159.9 B. Non-Paris Club Countries 1. China 2. Kuwait 3. Saudi Arabia 4. Turkey (EXIM Bank) 5. Abu Dhabi Fund Sub-Total (B) 448.0 100.0 548.0 6,493.8 282.8 6,776.6 C. Multilateral 1. IBRD 2. IDA 3. ADB 4. IFAD 5. European Investment Bank 6. ECOTDB 7. OPEC Fund 8. IDB 9.IDB (ST) 10.AIIB Sub-Total (C) 242.9 170.8 227.0 640.7 - D. Eurobonds / Sukuks 1. Eurobonds / Sukuks Sub-Total (D) E. Commercial Banks 1. SCB London 2. Dubai Bank 3. Noor Bank 4. SUISSE AG, UBL, ABL 5. Bank of China 6. China Development Bank 7. ICBC-China 8. Citi Bank 9. Ajman Bank Sub-Total (E) Grand-Total (A+B+C+D+E) Note: Total may differ due to rounding off 1,277.6 2014-15 2015-16 - 2016-17 2017-18 46.3 44.6 109.8 139.8 340.4 114.0 23.8 76.3 214.1 192.1 192.1 37.7 37.7 9,422.7 55.0 9,477.7 729.4 729.4 1,554.1 2,148.8 136.5 30.0 50.0 264.4 1,006.5 5,190.3 1,425.4 762.1 31.6 488.8 2,707.9 100.0 1,598.6 1,713.1 67.9 35.0 100.0 1,237.0 100.0 4,951.6 2,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 172.5 200.0 372.5 14,499.2 100.1 100.1 3,845.7 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 500.0 14.9 514.9 148.0 148.0 2,000.0 2,000.0 80.0 23.0 103.0 - 76.3 31.7 107.9 1,000.0 1,000.0 690.0 761.2 2,001.0 40.0 50.0 700.0 300.0 4,542.2 855.0 1,386.3 1,589.6 82.6 694.4 4,607.9 615.6 355.0 40.0 926.0 1,936.6 652.0 1,449.0 2,823.3 36.0 200.0 555.8 540.0 6,256.1 854.0 1,621.3 600.0 50.0 480.0 321.8 3,927.1 500.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 2,500.0 2,500.0 125.0 340.0 983.0 1,448.0 16,717.7 700.0 445.0 1,000.0 300.0 1,700.0 300.0 275.0 4,720.0 11,205.7 200.0 80.0 220.0 1,200.0 200.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 267.0 4,167.0 11,981.9 124 - - - 200.0 400.0 685.0 445.0 825.0 225.0 495.0 200.0 215.0 500.0 2,183.7 1,700.0 300.0 1,300.0 150.0 274.0 267.5 370.0 4,162.7 3,462.5 3,110.0 8,247.3 9,821.6 8,145.1 Source : Economic Affairs Division
511. TABLE 10 .1 NUMBER OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY KIND, LEVEL & SEX Year Primary* Schools (000) Total Female Middle Schools (000) Total Female High Schools (000) Total Female Technical & Vocational Institutions Total Female Higher Sec/ Inter Colleges Total Female Numbers Degree UniverColleges sities Total Female Total 2000-01 147.7 54.3 25.5 12.0 14.8 4.6 630 236 1,710 691 366 171 59 2001-02 149.1 55.3 26.8 12.8 15.1 4.6 607 239 1,784 731 376 177 74 2002-03 150.8 56.1 28.0 13.5 15.6 4.8 585 230 1,855 768 386 186 96 2003-04 155.0 57.6 28.7 13.9 16.1 5.1 624 228 1,989 822 426 206 106 2004-05 157.2 58.7 30.4 14.8 16.6 5.3 747 328 1,604 684 677 331 108 2005-06 157.5 59.8 39.4 19.3 22.9 8.1 3,059 1,475 2,996 1,484 1,135 664 111 2006-07 158.4 60.9 40.1 17.5 23.6 9.0 3,090 1,491 3,095 1,420 1,166 631 120 2007-08 157.4 64.9 40.8 20.6 24.0 9.0 3,125 1,507 3,213 1,642 1,202 700 124 2008-09 156.7 63.4 40.9 20.4 24.3 9.2 3,159 1,523 3,242 1,707 1,336 733 129 2009-10 157.5 60.6 41.3 19.5 24.8 10.6 3,192 2,182 3,329 1,763 1,439 821 132 2010-11 155.5 58.2 41.6 20.4 25.2 9.5 3,224 2,206 3,435 1,690 1,558 814 135 2011-12 154.7 57.0 41.9 21.0 28.7 11.6 3,257 2,229 4,515 2,184 1,384 643 139 2012-13 159.7 60.1 42.2 21.4 29.9 12.3 3,290 2,253 5,030 2,410 1,534 683 147 2013-14 157.9 60.3 42.9 21.1 30.6 12.6 3,323 2,276 5,179 2,462 1,086 518 161 2014-15 165.9 66.0 44.8 22.4 31.3 13.1 3,579 1,819 5,393 2,567 1,410 308 163 2015-16 164.6 65.3 45.7 27.0 31.7 15.6 3,746 1,514 5,470 1,437 1,418 260 163 2016-17 168.9 66.1 49.1 27.9 31.6 14.7 3,798 1,536 5,130 2,689 1,431 344 185 2017-18 172.5 73.5 46.7 23.5 31.4 13.5 3,740 1,330 5,754 2,654 1,659 834 186 2018-19 (P) 182.7 87.3 47.3 26.6 31.7 14.4 3,882 1,409 5,938 2,864 1,659 834 211 ^ 2019-20 (E) 187.1 93.9 48.3 27.7 32.0 14.8 3,998 1,321 6,117 2,954 1,682 865 224 ^ P : Provisional E: Estimated *: Including Pre-Primary, Mosque Schools and Non-Formal Basic Education ^: Figures provided by HEC Notes: 1. All figures include Public and Private Sector data 2. Female institution includes percentage of mixed institutions Sources: 1. Figures of Primary, Middle, High and Higher Sec. From 2000-01 to 2018-19 is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports, NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 2. Figures of Inter Colleges and Degree Colleges from 2000-01 to 2003-04 is based on Pakistan Economic Survey. 3. Figures of Private School data from 2004-05 onward is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 4. Figures of Private School data from 2000-01 to 2004-05 is based on 'Census of Private Education Institution 1999-2000', Federal Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad. 5. Figures of Private Schools data from 2005-06 is based on 'National Education Census, 2005', NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 6. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2000-01 to 2002-03 is based on Pakistan Economic Survey. 7. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2003-04 onward is based on Pakistan Education Statistics Reports, NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 8. Figures of Universities is provided by Higher Education Commission (HEC), Islamabad. 127
512. TABLE 10 .2 ENROLMENT IN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY KIND, LEVEL & SEX Year 2000-01 Primary Stage I-V in 000 Total Female 14,105 5,559 Middle Stage VI-VIII in 000 Total Female 3,759 1,706 High Stage Technical & IX-X Vocational in 000 in 000 Total Female Total Female 1,565 675 83 14 Higher Sec/ Inter Colleges in 000 Total Female 582 283 Degree Colleges Numbers Total Female 305,200 149,600 2001-02 14,560 5,871 3,821 1,506 1,574 644 83 15 582 2002-03 15,094 6,132 3,918 1,551 1,589 658 94 19 625 2003-04 16,207 6,606 4,321 1,737 1,800 709 105 14 2004-05 18,190 7,642 4,612 1,885 1,936 780 114 2005-06 17,757 7,710 5,322 2,191 2,188 905 239 2006-07 17,993 7,848 5,431 2,264 2,373 974 2007-08 18,360 8,032 5,427 2,279 2,484 2008-09 18,468 8,144 5,414 2,298 2009-10 18,772 8,320 5,504 2010-11 18,063 7,971 5,644 2011-12 18,677 7,905 2012-13 18,790 8,278 2013-14 19,441 2014-15 2015-16 Total 124,944 Female 36,699 285 300,400 148,000 276,274 101,770 306 320,800 158,400 331,745 128,066 691 338 329,007 163,059 423,236 178,723 21 307 141 453,275 220,118 471,964 195,555 90 891 444 355,705 209,806 521,473 212,997 251 94 942 473 380,012 224,263 605,885 255,695 1,022 256 96 960 452 383,810 226,517 741,092 342,125 2,556 1,071 265 99 1,074 508 366,518 222,850 803,507 356,233 2,337 2,583 1,078 273 102 1,166 495 383,954 217,621 935,599 426,323 2,421 2,630 1,103 281 106 1,188 408 431,180 218,374 1,107,682 521,284 6,020 2,573 2,753 1,155 290 109 1,294 367 497,152 222,098 1,319,799 642,198 6,188 2,653 2,898 1,215 302 113 1,400 395 641,539 234,006 1,594,648 805,062 8,567 6,461 2,798 3,109 1,303 309 117 1,234 497 465,435 240,585 1,594,648 805,062 19,847 8,778 6,582 2,843 3,501 1,493 320 112 1,665 662 510,588 82,479 1,299,160 602,550 21,551 9,534 6,922 3,026 3,653 1,580 315 112 1,698 675 518,144 86,134 1,355,649 602,509 2016-17 21,686 9,660 6,996 3,088 3,583 1,541 345 120 1,595 618 537,407 89,512 1,463,279 667,912 2017-18 22,931 10,093 7,362 3,273 3,861 1,692 433 148 1,688 765 604,614 294,388 1,575,793 695,028 2018-19 (P) 23,588 10,625 7,634 3,426 3,969 1,755 433 148 1,735 782 604,614 294,388 1,862,764 ^ 676,029 ^ 2019-20 (E) 24,592 11,127 7,931 3,593 4,214 1,885 465 155 P : Provisional E : Estimated ^: Figure provided by HEC Notes: 1. All figures include Public and Private Sector data 2. Enrolment of Deeni Madaris and Non-Formal Basic Education are included. 1,804 813 598,814 291,564 1,910,001 836,992 Sources: 1. Figures of Primary, Middle, High and Higher Sec. From 2000-01 to 2018-19 is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports, NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 2. Figures of Inter Colleges and Degree Colleges from 2000-01 to 2003-04 is based on Pakistan Economic Survey. 3. Figures of Private School data from 2004-05 onward is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 4. Figures of Private School data from 2000-01 to 2004-05 is based on 'Census of Private Education Institution 1999-2000', Federal Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad. 5. Figures of Pravate Schools data from 2005-06 is based on 'National Education Census, 2005', NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 6. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2000-01 to 2002-03 is based on Pakistan Economic Survey. 7. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2003-04 onward is based on Pakistan Education Statistics Reports, NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 8. Figures of Universities is provided by Higher Education Commission (HEC), Islamabad. 128 Universities Numbers
513. TABLE 10 .3 NUMBER OF TEACHERS IN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN PAKISTAN, BY KIND, LEVEL & SEX Year 2000-01 Primary Schools* in 000 Total Female 408.9 183.6 Middle Schools in 000 High Schools in 000 Total Female Total Female 209.7 260.3 125.3 127.8 Technical & Vocational Institutions Numbers Total Female 9,441 1,959 Higher Sec/ Inter Colleges Numbers Total Female 48,054 21,506 Degree Colleges Numbers Total Female 11,019 4,218 Universities Numbers Total 5,988 2001-02 413.9 183.5 230.1 139.3 270.2 126.1 7,192 1,863 55,146 23,016 10,598 4,164 5,160 2002-03 433.5 191.7 236.3 145.8 278.0 131.9 7,273 1,623 57,681 24,146 11,164 4,410 6,180 2003-04 432.2 195.3 239.4 146.6 276.9 134.2 7,042 1,325 57,881 24,190 11,245 4,505 37,428 2004-05 450.1 206.5 246.7 151.5 282.1 138.6 7,356 1,450 57,661 24,366 15,653 6,690 37,469 2005-06 454.2 210.6 310.8 201.6 417.1 209.9 14,565 4,658 69,425 33,959 20,568 10,485 37,509 2006-07 456.0 212.6 313.5 203.3 421.7 213.0 14,622 4,676 71,246 34,996 20,768 10,587 44,537 2007-08 452.6 216.0 320.6 208.2 429.9 219.7 14,914 4,770 74,223 36,162 20,971 10,690 46,893 2008-09 465.3 216.2 320.5 209.0 439.3 225.5 15,264 5,061 76,184 37,149 21,176 10,794 52,833 2009-10 441.7 208.9 331.5 216.6 447.1 230.4 15,338 4,905 77,248 37,595 30,754 14,313 57,780 2010-11 440.5 210.1 335.0 220.3 452.8 235.3 15,591 4,993 81,183 39,378 36,349 16,181 63,557 2011-12 427.4 198.6 351.4 233.9 458.7 271.3 15,847 5,079 97,633 52,746 40,191 16,815 70,053 2012-13 428.8 209.1 362.6 241.5 489.6 287.2 16,109 5,168 132,011 71,121 48,809 19,319 77,557 2013-14 420.1 209.5 364.8 243.6 500.5 296.3 16,377 5,259 124,336 58,867 25,964 7,599 77,557 2014-15 430.9 218.9 380.8 256.1 514.2 306.2 19,393 5,353 118,079 63,569 36,587 7,239 88,288 2015-16 444.6 226.3 394.2 270.3 529.5 318.0 18,157 4,384 123,061 66,528 37,082 7,379 83,375 2016-17 475.2 258.9 455.4 325.7 560.6 342.6 18,207 4,304 120,336 63,386 37,857 7,541 58,733 2017-18 522.4 284.0 448.1 319.8 563.3 342.9 18,207 4,304 123,154 64,320 41,233 17,803 56,885 2018-19 (P) 494.3 276.1 448.6 321.9 567.1 348.4 18,207 4,304 128,062 67,044 41,233 17,803 60,279 2019-20 (E) 506.8 290.8 466.4 339.8 582.0 360.8 18,602 4,184 127,424 66,403 40,166 17,570 58,041 P : Provisional E : Estimated * : Including Pre-primary, Mosque Schools and Non-Formal Basic Education Notes: All figures include Public and Private Sector data Sources: 1. Figures of Primary, Middle, High and Higher Sec. From 2000-01 to 2018-19 is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports, NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 2. Figures of Inter Colleges and Degree Colleges from 2000-01 to 2003-04 is based on Pakistan Economic Survey. 3. Figures of Private School data from 2004-05 onward is based on Annual Pakistan Education Statistics Reports NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 4. Figures of Private School data from 2000-01 to 2004-05 is based on 'Census of Private Education Institution 1999-2000', Federal Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad. 5. Figures of Pravate Schools data from 2005-06 is based on 'National Education Census, 2005', NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 6. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2000-01 to 2002-03 is based on Pakistan Economic Survey. 7. Figures of Technical and Vocational from 2003-04 onward is based on Pakistan Education Statistics Reports, NEMIS, AEPAM, Islamabad. 8. Figures of Universities is provided by Higher Education Commission (HEC), Islamabad. 129
514.                              
515. TABLE 11 .1 NATIONAL MEDICAL AND HEALTH ESTABLISHMENTS, Progressive (Calendar Year Basis) Year Hospitals Dispensaries BHUs Sub Health Centres Maternity & Child Health Centres Rural Health Centres TB Centres Total Beds (Numbers) Population per Bed 2001 907 4,625 5,230 879 541 272 97,945 1,427 2002 906 4,590 5,308 862 550 285 98,264 1,454 2003 906 4,554 5,290 907 552 289 98,684 1,479 2004 916 4,582 5,301 906 552 289 99,908 1,492 2005 919 4,632 5,334 907 556 289 101,490 1,483 2006 924 4,712 5,336 906 560 288 102,073 1,508 2007 945 4,755 5,349 903 562 290 103,285 1,544 2008 948 4,794 5,310 908 561 293 103,037 1,575 2009 968 4,813 5,345 906 572 293 103,708 1,592 2010 972 4,842 5,344 909 577 304 104,137 1,701 2011 980 5,039 5,449 851 579 345 107,537 1,647 2012 1,092 5,176 5,478 628 640 326 111,802 1,616 2013 1,113 5,413 5,471 687 667 329 118,378 1,557 2014 1,143 5,548 5,438 670 669 334 118,170 1,591 2015 1,172 5,695 5,478 733 684 339 119,548 1,604 2016 1,243 5,971 5,473 755 668 345 124,821 1,565 2017 1,264 5,654 5,505 727 688 431 131,049 1,585 2018 1,279 5,671 5,527 747 686 441 132,227 1,608 2019 1,282 5,743 5,472 752 670 412 133,707 - 2020(P) P: Provisional 1,282 5,472 752 670 5,743 - : Not Available 133 412 133,707 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
516. TABLE 11 .2 REGISTERED MEDICAL AND PARAMEDICAL PERSONNEL (Progressive) AND EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH, (Calendar Year Basis) Year Registered Doctors * Registered Dentists * Registered Nurses * Registered Midwives Registered Lady Health Visitors Population per Doctor (Numbers) Expenditure (Rs. Million)** DevelopNon-Devement lopment Dentist 2001 97,260 4,612 40,019 22,711 5,669 1,516 31,579 6,688 18,717 2002 102,644 5,058 44,520 23,084 6,397 1,466 29,405 6,609 22,205 2003 108,164 5,531 46,331 23,318 6,599 1,404 27,414 8,500 24,305 2004 113,309 6,128 48,446 23,559 6,741 1,359 25,107 5,568 21,441 2005 118,113 6,734 51,270 23,897 7,073 1,310 25,297 6,649 24,777 2006 123,146 7,438 57,646 24,692 8,405 1,254 20,839 9,793 29,410 2007 128,042 8,215 62,651 25,261 9,302 1,245 19,417 13,898 39,268 2008 133,925 9,012 65,387 25,534 10,002 1,212 18,010 17,748 44,659 2009 139,488 9,822 69,313 26,225 10,731 1,184 16,814 26,456 57,258 2010 144,901 10,508 73,244 27,153 11,510 1,222 16,854 28,301 66,098 2011 152,368 11,649 77,683 30,722 12,621 1,162 15,203 27,658 78,359 2012 160,880 12,692 82,119 31,503 13,678 1,123 14,238 29,898 104,284 2013 167,759 13,716 86,183 32,677 14,388 1,099 13,441 31,781 129,421 2014 175,223 15,106 90,276 33,687 15,325 1,073 12,447 55,904 146,082 2015 184,711 16,652 94,766 34,668 16,448 1,038 11,513 65,213 165,959 2016 195,896 18,333 99,228 36,326 17,384 997 10,658 75,249 192,704 2017 208,007 20,463 103,777 38,060 18,400 957 9,730 99,005 229,957 2018 220,829 22,595 108,474 40,272 19,910 963 2019 233,261 24,930 112,123 41,810 20,565 2020 245,987 27,360 116,659 43,129 21,361 - : Not available * : Registered with Pakistan Medical and Dental Council and Pakistan Nursing Council. ** : Expenditure figures are for Respecteve Financial Year 134 9,413 - 87,434 - 58,624 329,033 363,154 76,254 406,011 Source: Pakistan Medical & Dental Council (PMDC) Pakistan Nursis Council. (PNC) Pakistan Bureau of Statistics PRSP Budgetary Expenditure, External Finance (Policy wing), Finance Division
517. TABLE 11 .3 DATA ON EXPANDED PROGRAMME OF IMMUNIZATION VACCINATION PERFORMANCE Nos. in 000 Vaccine/doze. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 B.C.G. 5,813.3 6,062.0 6,186.4 6,150.8 5,848.5 6,233.7 6,356.5 6,608.4 7,261.5 7,019.4 3,844.4 5,698.5 5,356.0 5,218.1 86.1 4,200.3 5,822.8 5,445.9 5,330.5 - 4,464.2 5,905.2 5,538.9 5,398.0 - 4,746.2 5,838.7 5,494.8 5,369.4 - 4,796.7 5,743.6 5,387.8 5,257.4 - 5,120.1 5,990.7 5,537.9 5,378.7 - 5,420.8 6,001.4 5,618.4 5,455.2 - 5,818.8 6,138.1 6,138.1 5,672.4 - 6,220.4 6,618.3 6,249.3 6,115.9 - 6,339.8 6,607.1 6,239.1 6,124.0 I II III 5,606.3 5,266.8 5,129.2 5,773.2 5,400.2 5,275.6 5,921.6 5,552.8 5,411.6 5,843.5 5,491.0 5,370.8 5,713.7 5,353.2 5,225.9 5,933.6 5,532.2 5,371.7 6,009.0 5,625.0 5,472.0 5,526.7 6,139.5 5,676.0 6,725.8 6,360.6 6,231.3 6,145.7 5,766.4 5,665.8 I II III IV V 5,089.9 4,121.0 812.9 234.4 127.2 5,361.9 4,279.0 815.1 229.8 128.4 5,157.2 4,235.0 783.2 312.3 130.1 4,536.5 3,708.5 577.7 185.4 105.8 5,048.2 4,063.1 586.7 157.9 86.6 4,569.7 3,934.9 398.5 97.8 56.8 4,690.3 3,993.8 191.4 51.9 27.5 4,874.9 4,103.6 192.5 57.9 30.7 5,272.2 4,560.7 250.7 70.8 37.0 4,993.8 4,366.7 225.1 60.1 27.6 5,169.3 4,490.3 5,428.7 4,330.6 5,622.7 4,193.5 5,370.8 4,684.7 5,192.1 4,684.7 5,516.8 4,684.7 5,606.5 4,710.9 5,455.4 4,734.0 6,216.6 5,492.7 6,284.2 5,617.2 3,588.7 3,195.3 3,008.4 5,526.3 5,197.4 5,072.4 5,641.8 5,388.6 5,175.9 5,884.3 5,994.4 5,528.7 6,724.8 5,505.8 5,605.1 6,135.8 6,356.5 5,374.9 5,470.6 5,673.4 6,228.7 Source: National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan Bureau of Statistics POLIO 0 I II III IV BR Pentavalent T.T MEASLES I II Pneumococcal (PCV10) I II III - - - : Not available B.C.G. Bacilus+Calamus+Guerin D.P.T Diphteira+Perussia+Tetanus T.T Tetanus Toxoid 135 6,590.8 6,225.8 6,127.0
518. TABLE 11 .4 DOCTOR CONSULTING FEE IN VARIOUS CITIES Period** HyderIslam- Karachi Lahore PeshaQuetta abad abad war AVERAGE DOCTOR CALL FEE IN VARIOUS CITIES Gujranwala 2000 40.00 40.00 33.75 33.13 32.40 38.93 30.00 107.50 32.92 30.00 2001 40.00 40.00 33.75 33.13 33.00 41.96 43.33 107.50 33.75 30.00 43.64 2002 40.00 50.00 30.00 33.13 35.00 41.25 43.33 95.00 33.96 30.00 43.17 2003 40.00 50.00 31.25 45.00 36.35 41.96 50.00 100.00 38.75 30.00 46.33 2004 41.25 50.00 33.00 45.00 36.25 41.96 50.00 100.00 38.75 30.00 46.62 2005 41.25 50.00 33.75 46.25 38.08 44.29 50.00 100.00 42.08 30.00 47.57 2006 41.25 50.00 33.75 55.00 41.73 52.68 50.00 100.00 43.75 50.00 51.81 2007 43.75 50.00 50.00 55.00 55.00 52.68 50.00 120.00 43.75 75.00 59.52 2008 75.00 65.00 50.00 75.00 80.00 63.21 100.00 130.00 61.67 75.00 77.49 2009 75.00 65.00 50.00 75.00 93.85 68.93 100.00 120.00 61.67 75.00 78.45 2010 75.00 75.00 60.00 90.00 93.85 68.93 125.00 130.00 71.67 100.00 88.95 2011 80.00 75.00 68.75 100.00 93.85 70.00 166.67 180.00 85.00 100.00 101.93 2012 90.00 75.00 80.00 200.00 100.00 70.36 191.61 200.00 110.00 100.00 121.70 2013 90.00 75.00 100.00 146.25 100.00 100.00 225.00 200.00 135.00 100.00 127.13 2014 90.00 75.00 100.00 175.00 100.00 100.00 220.83 200.00 166.67 100.00 132.75 2015 125.00 75.00 100.00 175.00 100.00 100.00 266.67 200.00 166.67 100.00 140.83 2016 125.00 75.00 100.00 175.00 100.00 100.00 266.67 200.00 166.67 100.00 140.83 2017 135.42 77.08 100.00 220.83 141.28 100.00 266.67 200.00 212.50 100.00 155.38 2018 250.00 100.00 100.00 225.00 173.39 118.75 266.67 200.00 216.67 135.42 178.59 2019 250.00 100.00 100.00 225.00 197.43 125.00 266.67 200.00 216.67 150.00 228.16 2020 264.47 100.00 100.00 334.56 210.18 160.14 462.83 212.09 305.87 185.38 254.29 2021* 300.00 180.00 106.56 380.39 225.00 194.10 579.61 *: July-April **: Fiscal Year Note: In the new base year 2015-16, prices are disseminated w.e.f July, 2019 136 Rawalpindi Sukkur In Rupees Pakistan Faisalabad 41.86 211.00 350.54 200.00 287.05 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
519. TABLE 12 .1 POPULATION Year Population (mln) Labour Force Participation Rate(%) 28.97 Civilian Labour Force (mln) 40.38 Employed Total (mln) Crude Birth Rate Crude Infant Death Mortality Rate Rate (per 1000 persons) Growth Rate 2000 139.55 37.22 - - - 2.60 2001 142.76 28.48 41.23 38.00 - - - 2.61 2002 146.02 29.61 43.01 39.45 27.03 8.20 85.00 - 2003 149.32 29.61 43.88 40.25 27.30 8.00 83.00 1.90 2004 152.66 30.41 45.95 42.42 27.80 8.70 79.90 - 2005 156.04 30.41 46.82 43.22 - - - - 2006 159.46 32.22 50.50 47.37 26.10 7.10 76.70 - 2007 162.91 31.82 50.78 48.07 25.50 7.90 72.40 1.76 2008 166.41 32.17 52.23 49.52 25.00 7.70 70.20 1.73 2009 169.94 32.81 55.76 52.71 28.40 7.60 73.50 2.08 2010 173.51 32.98 57.22 54.05 28.00 7.40 72.00 2.05 2011 177.10 32.98 58.41 55.17 27.50 7.30 70.50 2.03 2012 180.71 32.83 59.33 55.80 27.20 7.20 69.00 2.00 2013 184.35 32.88 60.35 56.58 26.80 7.00 67.50 1.97 2014 188.02 32.28 60.09 56.52 26.40 6.90 66.10 1.95 2015 191.71 32.30 61.04 57.42 26.10 6.80 64.60 1.92 2016 198.78 - - - 27.80 7.00 62.40 2.08 2017 202.93 - - - 27.30 6.90 61.40 2.04 2018 207.06 31.70 ** 65.50 ** 61.71 ** 26.70 6.80 60.50 1.99 2019 211.17 - - - 26.10 6.70 59.50 1.94 2020* 215.25 - : Not available - - - 25.40 6.60 58.50 1.80 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics *: Population data reported in the chapter is based on Census 1998. Census Results 2017 have been released by PBS. NIPS will provide projected data accordingly, with the consultation of PBS and M/o Planning,Development & Special Initiatives. The revised Population data will be published in Statistical Supplement PES 2020-21 **: Data taken from Labour Force Survey 2017-18 Note: Labour Force Survey 2018-19 and 2019-20 has not been Published 139
520. TABLE 12 .2 POPULATION IN RURAL / URBAN AREAS Population in Million Year All Areas Male Female Rural areas Urban areas 2000 139.96 72.65 67.11 93.63 46.13 2001 142.86 74.23 68.63 95.36 47.50 2002 146.02 75.69 70.33 97.76 48.26 2003 149.32 77.38 71.93 99.74 49.57 2004 152.66 79.10 73.57 101.34 51.33 2005 156.04 80.83 75.21 102.12 53.92 2006 159.46 82.57 76.88 103.66 55.80 2007 162.91 84.34 78.57 105.20 57.72 2008 166.41 86.13 80.28 106.73 59.68 2009 169.94 87.94 82.01 108.08 61.87 2010 173.51 89.76 83.75 109.41 64.09 2011 177.10 91.59 85.51 110.73 66.37 2012 180.71 93.43 87.28 112.02 68.69 2013 184.35 95.29 89.06 113.28 71.07 2014 188.02 97.16 90.86 115.52 72.50 2015 191.71 99.04 92.67 116.52 75.19 2016 198.79 102.69 96.10 115.85 82.93 2017 202.93 104.80 98.13 117.25 85.69 2018 207.07 106.90 100.17 118.59 88.48 2019 211.17 108.98 102.19 119.88 91.30 2020 215.25 111.04 104.20 121.10 94.15 Source: National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives 140
521. TABLE 12 .3 POPULATION IN URBAN, RURAL AREAS 1972, 1981, 1998 AND 2017 CENSUS Region/ Province Both Sexes Total Male Female Population* Urban Both Sexes Male Female Both Sexes Rural Male In Thousands Density (Per sq. Female km) 1972 CENSUS PAKISTAN 65,309 34,833 30,476 16,594 9,027 7,567 48,716 25,806 22,909 82 238 131 106 77 46 31 161 86 75 259 Punjab** 37,607 20,209 17,398 9,183 4,977 4,206 28,424 15,232 13,192 183 Sindh 14,156 7,574 6,582 5,726 3,131 2,595 8,430 4,443 3,987 100 8,388 4,363 4,026 1,196 647 549 7,193 3,716 3,477 113 Islamabad** Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan 2,429 1,290 1,139 399 218 181 2,029 1,071 958 7 FATA 2,491 1,266 1,225 13 8 5 2,478 1,258 1,220 92 1981 CENSUS PAKISTAN 84,253 44,232 40,021 23,841 12,767 11,074 60,412 31,465 28,947 106 340 185 155 204 113 91 136 72 64 376 Punjab 47,292 24,860 22,432 13,052 6,952 6,100 34,241 17,909 16,332 230 Sindh 19,029 9,999 9,030 8,243 4,433 3,810 10,786 5,566 5,220 135 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 11,061 5,761 5,300 1,665 898 767 9,396 4,863 4,533 148 Islamabad Balochistan 4,332 2,284 2,048 677 371 306 3,655 1,913 1,742 13 FATA 2,199 1,143 1,056 - - - 2,199 1,143 1,056 81 1998 CENSUS PAKISTAN 132,352 68,874 63,478 43,036 22,752 20,284 89,316 46,122 43,194 166 805 434 371 529 291 238 276 143 133 889 Punjab 73,621 38,094 35,527 23,019 12,071 10,948 50,602 26,023 24,579 359 Sindh 30,440 16,098 14,342 14,840 7,904 6,935 15,600 8,193 7,407 216 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 238 Islamabad 17,744 9,089 8,655 2,994 1,589 1,405 14,750 7,500 7,250 Balochistan 6,566 3,057 3,059 1,569 849 719 4,997 2,657 2,340 19 FATA 3,176 1,652 1,524 85 46 39 3,091 1,606 1,485 117 2017 CENSUS PAKISTAN Islamabad Punjab 207,685 106,340 101,345 75,671 39,163 36,508 132,014 66,877 64,837 261 2,003 1,053 951 1,009 536 473 994 517 478 2,211 109,990 55,922 54,067 40,547 20,829 19,719 69,442 35,094 34,349 536 Sindh 47,855 24,882 22,972 24,833 12,952 11,881 23,022 11,630 11,092 340 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 30,509 15,446 15,062 5,735 2,975 2,760 24,773 12,471 12,302 409 Balochistan 12,335 6,485 5,851 3,407 1,798 1,608 8,928 4,686 4,242 36 4,993 2,552 2,441 140 73 66 4,853 2,479 2,375 183 FATA - : Not available * : This population does not include the population of AJK and Gilgit Baltistan ** : Adjusted due to transfer of some mouzas from Rawalpindi to Islamabad district Note : Total may differ due to rounding off figures 141 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
522. TABLE 12 .4 POPULATION BY AGE, IN URBAN, RURAL AREAS 1981 AND 1998 CENSUS Age (in years) Both All ages 82,055 43,090 38,965 58,214 30,323 27,891 23,841 12,767 11,074 0- 4 12,574 6,200 6,373 8,995 4,387 4,608 3,579 1,813 1,766 Female Both Rural Male Female 1981 Census In Thousands Urban Male Female Total Male Both 5- 9 13,142 6,811 6,331 9,591 4,973 4,618 3,552 1,839 1,713 10-14 10,803 5,857 4,946 7,684 4,204 3,480 3,119 1,653 1,467 15-19 7,763 4,193 3,571 5,223 2,828 2,395 2,540 1,365 1,175 20-24 6,228 3,270 2,958 4,119 2,111 2,008 2,108 1,159 950 25-29 5,479 2,891 2,588 3,760 1,948 1,812 1,719 944 776 30-34 4,617 2,388 2,229 3,226 1,631 1,595 1,391 757 634 35-39 4,197 2,121 2,077 2,922 1,452 1,469 1,276 668 608 40-44 3,865 1,937 1,928 2,733 1,332 1,402 1,132 606 526 45-49 3,076 1,610 1,466 2,194 1,121 1,074 882 490 392 50-54 2,966 1,638 1,328 2,170 1,179 991 796 459 337 55-59 1,611 859 751 1,187 618 569 424 242 182 60-64 2,216 1,299 917 1,667 973 695 549 327 222 65-69 987 555 431 755 420 334 232 135 97 70-74 1,161 678 484 900 526 374 261 152 109 75 and above 1,369 782 588 1,088 466 281 160 121 129,176 67,222 61,954 86,225 44,516 41,709 42,951 22,705 20,245 All ages 622 1998 Census* 0- 4 19,118 9,761 9,357 13,534 6,907 6,627 5,584 2,854 2,730 5- 9 20,215 10,571 9,644 14,211 7,466 6,745 6,004 3,105 2,899 10-14 16,732 8,909 7,822 11,106 5,973 5,133 5,625 2,935 2,690 15-19 13,400 6,909 6,490 8,553 4,396 4,158 4,846 2,514 2,333 20-24 11,588 5,815 5,773 7,402 3,610 3,791 4,186 2,205 1,981 25-29 9,521 4,879 4,643 6,092 3,024 3,067 3,429 1,854 1,575 30-34 8,040 4,232 3,807 5,083 2,604 2,479 2,956 1,628 1,328 35-39 6,167 3,254 2,912 3,846 1,984 1,862 2,320 1,270 1,050 40-44 5,745 2,931 2,815 3,660 1,812 1,848 2,086 1,119 967 45-49 4,563 2,360 2,203 2,995 1,512 1,483 1,569 849 720 50-54 4,148 2,201 1,948 2,776 1,459 1,318 1,372 742 630 55-59 2,777 1,505 1,272 1,868 1,001 867 909 504 405 60-64 2,637 1,418 1,219 1,838 987 851 799 431 368 65-69 1,554 850 704 1,076 585 491 478 265 214 70-74 1,408 778 631 1,022 564 458 386 214 172 75 and above 1,563 849 714 1,162 632 531 400 217 183 * : Figures regarding FATA is not included Note: Figures will be updated after the release of final result of Population Census 2017 142 Source: Pakitan Bureau of Statistics
523. TABLE 12 .5 POPULATION OF PAKISTAN BY PROVINCE, LAND AREA AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION 1951-2017 Population (In thousand) 1972 1981 Area Sq km 1951 1961 PAKISTAN 796,096 (100) 33,740 (100) 42,880 (100) 65,309 (100) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 74,521 (9.4) 4,557 (13.5) 5,731 (13.4) FATA 27,220 (3.4) 1,332 (3.9) Punjab 205,345 (25.8) Sindh Balochistan Islamabad 1998 2017 84,254 (100) 132,352 (100) 207,685 (100) 8,388 (12.8) 11,061 (13.1) 17,744 (13.4) 30,509 (14.7) 1,847 (4.3) 2,491 (3.8) 2,199 (2.6) 3,176 (2.4) 4,993 (2.4) 20,541 (60.9) 25,464 (59.4) 37,607 (57.6) 47,292 (56.1) 73,621 (55.6) 109,990 (53.0) 140,914 (17.7) 6,048 (17.9) 8,367 (19.5) 14,156 (21.7) 19,029 (22.6) 30,440 (23.0) 47,855 (23.0) 347,190 (43.6) 1,167 (3.5) 1,353 (3.2) 2,429 (3.7) 4,332 (5.1) 6,566 (5.0) 12,335 (5.9) 118 (0.3) 238 (0.4) 906 96 (0.1) (0.3) Note : Percentage distribution is given in parenthesis 143 340 805 2,003 (0.4) (0.6) (1.0) Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
524. TABLE 12 .6 LITERACY RATIOS OF POPULATION BY SEX, REGION AND URBAN/RURAL AREAS, 1998 AND 1981 CENSUS Total 1998 Sex 15 Years & Above Pakistan Both 41.0 Male 53.0 Female 28.0 Islamabad Both 69.7 Male 79.5 Female 57.7 Punjab Both 43.4 Male 55.2 Female 30.8 Sindh Both 43.9 Male 54.5 Female 32.0 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Both 31.5 Male 48.2 Female 14.6 Balochistan Both 22.4 Male 32.5 Female 11.0 FATA Both Male Female - Urban 1998 10 Years & Above 1981 10 Years & Above 15 Years & Above 43.9 54.8 32.0 26.2 35.1 16.0 72.4 80.6 62.4 Rural 1998 10 Years & Above 1981 10 Years & Above 15 Years & Above 10 Years & Above 1981 10 Years & Above 60.5 68.7 51.0 63.1 70.0 55.2 47.1 55.3 37.3 30.4 44.0 16.2 33.6 46.4 20.1 17.3 26.2 7.3 47.8 59.1 33.5 75.2 82.2 65.9 77.3 83.2 69.7 57.6 65.8 46.8 58.4 73.2 42.1 62.5 75.1 48.8 32.5 48.1 14.7 46.6 57.2 35.1 27.4 36.8 16.8 61.9 69.8 53.0 64.5 70.9 57.2 46.7 55.2 36.7 34.5 47.9 20.5 38.0 50.4 24.8 20.0 29.6 9.4 45.3 54.5 34.8 31.4 39.7 21.6 62.6 70.0 54.9 63.7 69.8 56.7 50.8 57.8 42.2 23.9 37.2 9.8 25.7 37.9 12.2 15.6 24.5 5.2 35.4 51.4 18.8 16.7 25.9 6.5 51.0 65.5 33.9 54.3 67.5 39.1 35.8 47.0 21.9 27.2 44.1 10.6 31.3 47.7 14.7 13.2 21.7 3.8 24.8 34.0 14.1 10.3 15.2 4.3 43.4 55.9 28.0 46.9 58.1 33.1 32.2 42.4 18.5 15.2 24.0 5.6 17.5 25.8 7.9 6.2 9.8 1.7 17.4 29.5 3.0 6.4 10.9 0.8 16.8 28.6 2.8 6.4 10.9 0.8 - 39.3 59.7 12.0 - - FATA: Federally Administered Tribal Areas Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics - : Not available Note: Literacy Ratio will be updated after the release of final result of Population Census 2017 144
525. TABLE 12 .7 LAND AREA, POPULATION AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION Population in Thousand Region / Years Pakistan Area Sq. Kms 1951 1981 1998 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 796,096 100 33,740 100 84,254 100 132,352 100 188,019 100 191,708 100 198,785 100 202,934 100 207,067 100 211,177 100 215,254 100 i. Punjab 205,345 25.79 20,541 60.88 47,292 56.13 73,621 55.63 102,005 54.25 103,837 54.16 107,959 54.31 110,036 54.22 112,095 54.13 114,137 54.05 116,153 54.00 ii. Sindh 140,914 17.70 6,048 17.93 19,029 22.59 30,440 23.00 45,032 23.95 45,988 23.98 46,568 23.43 47,580 23.45 48,591 23.47 49,595 23.49 50,593 23.50 iii. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 74,521 9.36 4,556 13.50 11,061 13.13 17,744 13.41 25,308 13.46 25,836 13.47 27,714 13.94 28,363 13.98 29,013 14.01 29,660 14.05 30,304 14.07 iv. Balochistan 347,190 43.61 1,167 3.46 4,332 5.14 6,566 4.96 9,717 5.17 9,942 5.18 10,408 5.24 10,667 5.26 10,930 5.28 11,193 5.30 11,458 5.32 v. FATA 27,220 3.42 1,332 3.95 2,199 2.61 3,176 2.40 4,516 2.40 4,623 2.41 4,927 2.48 5,056 2.49 5,187 2.50 5,320 2.52 5,454 2.53 vi. Islamabad 906 0.11 96 0.28 340 0.40 805 0.61 1,441 0.77 145 1,479 1,207 1,228 1,249 1,269 1,289 0.77 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 Sources : Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives Pakistan Bureau of Statistics National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS)
526. TABLE 12 .8 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION OF 10 YEARS AND ABOVE AND CIVILIAN LABOUR FORCE BY GENDER YEAR 2017-18 Percent Share Civilian Labour Force Total Civilian Labour Force Population Total Male Female Total Male Employed Female Total Male Unemployed Female Total Male Female PAKISTAN 100 50.45 49.55 44.28 34.30 9.98 41.72 32.56 9.16 2.56 1.74 Rural 100 49.80 50.20 47.14 34.29 12.85 44.77 32.67 12.10 2.37 1.62 0.75 Urban 100 51.49 48.51 39.71 34.33 5.38 36.84 32.40 4.44 2.87 1.93 0.94 1.00 Punjab 0.82 100 49.25 50.75 47.89 34.44 13.45 45.03 32.58 12.45 2.86 1.86 Rural 100 48.55 51.45 52.12 34.48 17.64 49.32 32.68 16.64 2.80 1.80 1.00 Urban 100 50.38 49.62 41.10 34.37 6.73 38.15 32.43 5.73 2.95 1.94 1.00 100 53.51 46.49 42.27 36.64 5.63 40.19 35.20 4.99 2.08 1.44 0.64 100 53.50 46.50 46.06 38.20 7.86 44.81 37.33 7.48 1.25 0.87 0.38 100 53.51 46.49 38.85 35.23 3.62 36.03 33.28 2.75 2.82 1.95 0.87 100 48.43 51.57 35.42 29.57 5.85 32.88 27.55 5.33 2.54 2.02 0.52 Rural 100 48.13 51.87 35.53 29.26 6.27 33.07 27.28 5.80 2.46 1.98 0.47 Urban 100 49.75 50.25 34.96 30.95 4.01 32.07 28.81 3.26 2.89 2.14 0.75 Balochistan 100 55.60 44.40 38.98 35.48 3.50 37.39 34.48 2.91 1.59 1.00 0.60 Rural 100 56.24 43.76 40.54 36.86 3.68 39.12 35.50 3.63 1.42 1.36 0.05 Urban 100 53.94 46.06 34.96 31.91 3.05 32.91 30.85 Sindh Rural Urban Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 146 2.06 2.05 1.06 0.99 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey 2017-18
527. TABLE 12 .9 LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT In Million Mid Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12* 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 Population 165.45 168.99 172.57 176.20 180.71 183.57 186.19 189.19 206.62 Rural 103.08 104.38 105.70 107.00 120.10 121.66 121.56 123.36 131.19 Urban 62.37 64.61 66.87 69.20 60.61 61.91 64.63 65.83 75.43 117.83 121.42 124.06 126.60 129.84 132.07 132.24 134.99 147.91 Rural 76.28 78.28 80.08 81.77 83.87 84.96 83.62 85.60 91.02 Urban 41.55 43.14 43.98 44.83 45.97 47.11 48.62 49.39 56.89 Labour Force 53.22 55.91 56.92 57.84 59.33 59.74 60.10 61.04 65.50 Rural 37.19 38.82 39.56 40.12 41.15 41.23 41.14 41.95 42.91 Urban 16.03 17.09 17.36 17.72 18.18 18.15 18.96 19.09 22.59 Working Age Population Employed Labour Force 50.45 52.86 53.76 54.40 55.80 56.01 56.52 57.42 61.71 Rural 35.44 36.99 37.66 38.24 39.22 39.14 39.07 39.85 40.75 Urban 15.01 15.87 16.10 16.16 16.58 16.87 17.45 17.57 20.96 2.77 3.05 3.16 3.44 3.53 3.73 3.58 3.62 3.79 Rural 1.75 1.83 1.90 1.88 1.93 2.09 2.06 2.10 2.15 Urban 1.02 1.22 1.26 1.56 1.60 1.64 1.52 1.52 1.64 5.20 5.46 5.55 5.95 5.95 6.24 6.00 5.90 5.80 4.71 4.73 4.82 4.68 4.68 5.08 5.01 5.00 5.00 6.34 7.11 7.21 8.84 8.84 8.83 8.02 8.00 7.20 Unemployed Labour Force Unemployment Rate (%) Rural Urban Labour Force Participation Rates (%) 32.17 32.81 32.98 32.83 32.83 32.88 32.28 32.30 31.70 Rural 33.84 34.29 34.50 34.26 34.26 34.23 33.84 34.00 32.70 Urban 28.87 29.87 29.99 29.99 29.99 30.21 29.35 29.00 30.00 Source : Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Labour Force Survey) Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives * : Data supplied by Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives Note: Labour Force Survey has not been conducted for the last two years (2015-16 and 2016-17) due to Population Census 147
528. TABLE 12 .10 POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE Years Unemp- Employed Agricul- Mining Const- Electricity Transport Wholeloyed Labour ture & Manu- ruction & Gas Storage Sale & Labour Force facturing Distri- & Commu- Retail Force bution cation Trade 3.24 38.14 18.47 4.40 2.21 0.26 1.92 5.15 In Million Others Population Crude Activity Rate(%) Labour Force 2000-01 142.86 28.97 41.38 2001-02 145.96 28.97 43.21 3.57 39.64 16.68 5.51 2.40 0.32 2.34 5.89 6.50 2002-03 149.03 28.97 44.12 3.65 40.47 17.03 5.63 2.45 0.33 2.39 6.01 6.63 2003-04 150.47 30.41 45.76 3.52 42.24 18.18 5.83 2.46 0.28 2.42 6.25 6.82 2004-05 153.96 30.41 46.82 3.60 43.22 18.60 5.96 2.52 0.29 2.48 6.39 6.98 2005-06 156.77 32.22 50.50 3.13 47.37 20.54 6.60 2.91 0.31 2.72 6.95 7.34 2006-07 161.98 31.82 51.55 2.75 48.80 21.29 6.66 3.21 0.37 2.63 7.03 7.61 2007-08 165.45 32.17 53.22 2.77 50.45 22.52 6.61 3.18 0.36 2.75 7.38 7.65 2008-09 168.99 32.81 55.91 3.05 52.86 23.63 6.89 3.46 0.36 2.74 8.63 7.15 2009-10 172.57 32.98 56.92 3.16 53.76 24.18 7.17 3.62 0.43 2.82 8.75 6.79 2010-11 176.20 32.83 57.84 3.44 54.40 24.51 7.51 3.78 0.26 2.78 8.78 6.78 2011-12* 180.71 32.83 59.33 5.95 55.80 25.14 7.70 3.88 0.27 2.85 8.28 7.68 2012-13 183.57 32.88 60.34 3.76 56.58 24.73 8.03 4.21 0.30 2.82 8.14 8.35 2013-14 186.19 32.28 60.10 3.58 56.52 24.57 8.00 4.15 0.27 3.07 8.24 8.21 2014-15 189.19 32.30 61.04 3.62 57.42 24.27 8.89 4.20 0.45 3.11 8.41 8.09 2017-18 206.62 31.70 65.50 3.79 61.71 23.76 10.05 4.70 0.45 3.50 9.21 10.05 * : Data supplied by Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives Note: Labour Force Survey was not conducted in the years 2000-01, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2011-12, 2015-16 and 2016-17. 148 5.73 Source: Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Labour Force Survey)
529. TABLE 12 .11 DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS OF 10 YEARS AGE AND ABOVE BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES Years Agriculture Mining & Manufacturing Construction 2000-01 48.42 11.55 2001-02 42.09 2002-03 42.09 2003-04 in Percentage Others 5.78 Electricity & Gas Distribution 0.70 Transport Storage & Commucation 5.03 WholeSale & Retail Trade 13.50 13.91 6.05 0.81 5.90 14.85 16.39 13.91 6.05 0.81 5.90 14.85 16.39 43.05 13.80 5.83 0.67 5.73 14.80 16.12 2004-05 43.05 13.80 5.83 0.67 5.73 14.80 16.12 2005-06 43.37 13.93 6.13 0.66 5.74 14.67 15.49 2006-07 43.61 13.65 6.56 0.75 5.39 14.42 15.60 2007-08 44.65 13.11 6.29 0.70 5.46 14.62 15.17 2008-09 45.08 13.14 6.62 0.69 5.23 16.47 12.77 2009-10 44.96 13.34 6.74 0.80 5.24 16.28 12.64 2010-11 45.05 13.80 6.95 0.48 5.11 16.15 2011-12 * - - - - - 15.02 12.46 - - 2012-13 43.71 14.20 7.44 0.53 4.98 14.39 14.75 2013-14 43.48 14.16 7.33 0.48 5.44 14.58 14.53 2014-15 42.27 15.49 7.31 0.79 5.00 14.64 14.09 2017-18 38.50 16.28 7.61 0.73 5.67 14.92 16.29 - : Not available Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics *: Labour Force Survey 2011-12 was not conducted Note: Labour Force Survey has not been conducted for the last two years (2015-16 and 2016-17) due to Population Census 149
530. TABLE 12 .12 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS OF 10 YEARS AGE AND ABOVE BY MAJOR INDUSTRY 2017-18 Major Industry Division Total Pakistan Rural Urban Total Punjab Rural Urban 33.97 2.06 100.0 40.01 67.48 38.17 Urban Khyper Pakhtunkhwa Total Rural Urban In Percentage Balochistan Total Rural Urban 52.84 34.47 47.16 2.74 100.0 32.62 81.80 31.32 18.20 1.30 100.0 40.03 75.39 36.43 24.61 3.60 Total Sindh Rural 32.52 1.84 100.0 37.21 Total Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 100.0 66.03 38.49 36.44 2. 3. 4. Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas Steam and Air Conditioning Supply 0.23 16.05 0.41 0.21 7.37 0.15 0.03 8.68 0.26 0.04 17.74 0.32 0.02 8.82 0.12 0.01 8.91 0.19 0.23 15.48 0.62 0.20 3.56 0.09 0.03 11.92 0.52 0.30 12.03 0.34 0.27 8.96 0.23 0.03 3.07 0.11 2.95 5.55 0.79 2.76 2.93 0.59 0.19 2.62 0.20 5. Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste, Management & Remediation Activity Construction Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles Transport, storage Accomodation and Food Services Activities 0.32 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.07 0.16 0.42 0.20 0.22 0.47 0.34 0.13 0.62 0.38 0.24 7.61 14.92 5.38 6.30 2.23 8.62 6.99 14.16 4.90 6.19 2.09 7.97 6.20 16.39 3.30 3.94 2.90 12.44 13.74 15.12 12.04 10.18 1.69 4.94 7.60 17.27 5.57 10.44 2.03 6.84 5.67 1.97 3.19 0.90 2.49 1.07 4.92 1.94 2.73 0.91 2.20 1.04 6.09 2.11 2.25 0.64 3.84 1.47 8.35 1.52 6.82 0.95 1.53 0.57 6.86 2.97 5.18 2.22 1.69 0.75 0.09 0.42 0.53 0.09 0.44 0.64 0.06 0.58 0.32 0.17 0.15 0.23 0.09 0.13 1. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Information and Communication 0.52 11. Financial and Insurance Activities Real Estate Activities Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 0.53 0.14 0.39 0.51 0.16 0.35 0.73 0.07 0.66 0.37 0.21 0.15 0.16 0.06 0.10 0.46 0.53 0.12 0.21 0.34 0.32 0.48 0.63 0.14 0.25 0.34 0.38 0.51 0.35 0.05 0.07 0.47 0.28 0.30 0.50 0.15 0.32 0.15 0.19 0.34 0.16 0.18 0.07 0.16 0.09 14. Administrative and Support Service Activities 0.53 0.20 0.34 0.49 0.18 0.31 0.65 0.12 0.53 0.61 0.42 0.19 0.34 0.22 0.12 15. Public Administration and Defence Compulsory Scocial Security 2.49 1.00 1.49 1.98 0.73 1.26 3.24 0.89 2.35 2.56 1.80 0.77 5.65 3.48 2.17 16. 17. Education Human Health and Social Work Activities Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Other Services Activities 4.05 1.56 1.91 0.65 2.14 0.90 3.52 1.36 1.47 0.58 2.05 0.78 4.33 1.79 1.69 0.48 2.64 1.31 5.98 2.03 4.38 1.26 1.60 0.77 4.82 1.78 2.67 0.97 2.15 0.81 0.18 0.08 0.10 0.24 0.11 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.14 0.04 0.10 0.03 0.01 0.02 2.10 1.09 1.01 2.24 1.24 1.00 1.87 0.52 1.35 2.07 1.52 0.55 1.44 0.90 0.54 20. Activities of Households as Employer; Undifferentiated Goods & Services Producing Activities of Household for own use 1.34 0.47 0.88 1.64 0.59 1.06 1.08 0.21 0.87 0.61 0.42 0.19 0.39 0.24 0.14 21. Activities Extraterritorial Organizations and Bodies 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 12. 13. 18. 19. - - - : Not available - - - Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Labour Force Survey 2017-18) 150 -
531. TABLE 12 .13 AGE SPECIFIC LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE In Percentage Age Group 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 10 years & over Both Sexes 46.01 45.18 45.17 45.66 Male 71.97 70.14 69.54 69.31 Female 18.93 19.10 19.59 20.66 10-14 Male 20.68 16.92 17.09 16.20 Female 9.21 9.18 9.69 9.48 15-19 Male 60.87 56.29 53.94 52.74 Female 16.91 16.60 17.61 18.90 20-24 Male 87.63 86.76 85.12 85.39 Female 20.67 20.66 20.98 22.76 25-34 Male 97.03 97.16 96.90 97.19 Female 21.62 21.66 21.87 23.63 35-44 Male 97.57 98.01 97.87 98.37 Female 25.07 25.93 26.75 27.67 45-54 Male 96.37 96.62 96.65 96.69 Female 24.78 25.01 24.42 25.86 55-59 Male 90.62 92.20 92.54 93.71 Female 22.84 22.45 25.53 26.37 60+ Male 59.38 58.52 59.46 56.38 Female 14.69 15.70 15.50 15.22 Note: Labour Force Survey has not been conducted for the last two years (2015-16 and 2016-17) due to Population Census 2009-10 2010-11 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 45.89 68.83 21.51 45.69 68.70 21.67 45.70 68.89 21.50 45.45 68.07 22.17 45.22 67.78 22.02 44.30 68.00 20.10 15.42 9.24 14.27 8.83 14.46 7.98 12.62 8.37 11.22 7.71 9.80 6.40 52.68 19.17 51.59 19.58 51.16 18.19 49.68 19.32 47.55 18.01 47.60 15.60 84.54 23.88 84.27 24.20 82.38 24.41 81.71 25.14 82.32 25.74 84.60 23.30 96.89 25.48 97.42 25.44 96.73 26.01 96.91 26.57 97.33 27.15 97.00 25.57 97.53 27.88 98.34 29.46 98.45 28.72 98.06 30.00 98.33 29.43 98.38 27.97 96.96 29.41 97.29 28.35 97.02 29.11 97.13 29.37 97.24 30.75 96.77 26.07 93.26 27.98 92.24 26.27 92.61 26.60 92.78 27.48 93.80 27.29 91.70 23.40 55.49 13.54 54.95 14.62 151 52.42 53.33 55.16 51.30 13.58 12.77 11.95 11.50 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Labour Force Surveys)
532. TABLE 12 .14 DAILY WAGES OF CONSTRUCTION WORKERS IN DIFFERENT CITIES In Pak Rupees Category of workers and cities (Base Year : 2007-08 = 100) 2014 2015 2016 (Base Year : 2015-16 = 100)** 2017 2018 2019-20 (July-April) 2020-21 (July-April) 1,423.81 1,432.57 2011 2012 2013 Islamabad 687.50 775.00 900.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 1,250.00 1,300.00 Karachi 632.92 700.00 700.00 792.31 861.54 861.54 861.54 1,292.31 1,345.46 1,423.72 Lahore 611.17 682.14 682.14 780.36 830.36 830.36 925.00 1,100.00 1,232.45 1,232.45 Peshawar 508.33 608.33 666.67 741.67 800.00 800.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,297.43 Quetta 691.67 750.00 900.00 900.00 900.00 900.00 1,287.41 1,347.52 Islamabad 685.42 775.00 900.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 1,250.00 1,300.00 1,440.83 1,488.17 Karachi 662.50 800.00 800.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 Painter* 900.00 1,000.00 Mason (Raj) 861.54 1,061.54 1,061.54 1,061.54 1,430.77 Lahore 618.17 689.29 689.29 826.79 926.79 926.79 1,025.00 1,150.00 1,263.41 1,425.40 Peshawar 579.17 733.33 850.00 900.00 900.00 1,000.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 1,428.59 Quetta 816.67 900.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 1,200.00 1,487.75 1,537.82 Islamabad 387.50 450.00 525.00 600.00 700.00 700.00 800.00 825.00 965.49 993.10 Karachi 410.42 500.00 500.00 530.00 630.77 663.46 719.23 932.69 988.94 1,000.00 Lahore 389.58 475.00 475.00 600.00 600.00 600.00 725.00 850.00 858.75 921.10 Peshawar 308.33 400.00 466.67 483.33 500.00 500.00 600.00 600.00 631.64 800.00 Quetta 397.92 425.00 550.00 550.00 550.00 550.00 550.00 700.00 986.62 1,006.69 Labour (Unskilled) Data pertains to month of November calandar year *: Painter is included while Carpainter is excluded in Base Year 2015-16 ** : Data pertains to Financial Year 152 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
533. TABLE 13 .1 TRANSPORT (Roads) ( in kilometers) Length of Roads Years High Low Type Type Total 2000-01 144,652 105,320 249,972 2001-02 148,877 102,784 251,661 2002-03 153,225 98,943 252,168 2003-04 158,543 97,527 256,070 2004-05 162,841 95,373 258,214 2005-06 167,530 91,491 259,021 2006-07 172,827 86,370 259,197 2007-08 175,000 84,038 259,038 2008-09 177,060 83,140 260,200 2009-10 180,190 79,850 260,040 2010-11 180,866 78,597 259,463 2011-12 181,940 79,655 261,595 2012-13 182,900 80,515 263,415 2013-14 184,120 79,635 263,755 2014-15 188,430 76,974 265,404 2015-16 190,355 75,550 265,905 2016-17 193,871 73,131 267,002 2017-18 197,452 71,483 268,935 2018-19 201,100 69,872 Years Expressway Highway Local Road 270,971 Metro Road Motorway 2019-20 460 20,089 373,423 86 3,210 2020-21 225 18,577 373,772 77 2,337 National Highway 12,122 Primary Road 4,387 Secondary Road 87,647 Total 501,424 9,662 2,318 86,119 493,088 Source: National Transport Research Center Note: Earlier, NTRC was collecting the data regarding road length that included ranging from kacha road, gravel/ shingle road, unsurfaced road to metalled road. Due to digitization of road directory and ground verification of classification of roads and development of a web portal “Pakistan Geo Directory Road Portal”. The length of road has been calculated at 493,088 km in all provinces, AJK and GB. 155
534. TABLE 13 .1 B RAILWAYS Fiscal Year Locomotives (Nos.) Freight Wagons (Nos.) 2000-01 610 23,893 2001-02 577 23,460 2002-03 577 2003-04 2004-05 Route (Kms.) 7,791 Number of Passengers carried (Million) 68.80 Freight carried (Million Tonnes) 5.89 Freight Tonne (Million Kms.) 4,520 Gross Earnings (Rs. Million) 7,791 69.00 5.90 4,573 13,346 23,722 7,791 72.40 6.18 4,830 14,810 592 21,812 7,791 75.70 6.14 5,336 14,635 557 21,556 7,791 78.18 6.41 5,532 18,027 2005-06 544 20,809 7,791 81.43 6.03 5,916 18,184 2006-07 544 19,638 7,791 83.89 6.42 5,453 19,195 2007-08 555 18,638 7,791 79.99 7.23 6,178 19,973 2008-09 551 17,259 7,791 82.54 6.94 5,896 23,160 2009-10 528 16,499 7,791 74.93 5.83 4,847 21,886 2010-11 528 18,468 7,791 64.90 2.61 1,757 18,740 2011-12 522 17,611 7,791 41.90 1.30 403 15,444 2012-13 493 16,635 7,791 42.00 1.00 419 18,071 2013-14 421 16,179 7,791 48.00 1.00 1,090 22,800 2014-15 458 15,452 7,791 52.90 3.60 3,301 31,924 11,938 2015-16 460 15,164 7,791 52.19 5.00 4,774 36,582 2016-17 455 16,085 7,791 52.39 5.63 5,031 40,065 2017-18 472 16,159 7,791 54.91 8.35 8,080 49,570 2018-19 472 14,327 7,791 60.40 8.30 8,304 54,508 2019-20 473 14,448 7,791 44.30 7.41 7,370 47,584 466 14,448 7,791 18.11 5.25 5,229 30,966 2020-21 (Jul-Feb) P P : Provisional Source: Ministry of Railways 156
535. TABLE 13 .1 C PAKISTAN NATIONAL SHIPPING CORPORATION (PNSC) Fiscal No. of Dead Wt. Gross Earnings Year Vessels Tonnes (Rs. Million) 2000-01 14 243,802 5,458.7 2001-02 14 243,749 4,555.5 2002-03 13 229,579 5,405.0 2003-04 14 469,931 6,881.9 2004-05 14 570,466 7,860.0 2005-06 15 636,182 7,924.6 2006-07 14 636,821 9,089.1 2007-08 14 636,821 10,753.5 2008-09 14 477,238 11,474.0 2009-10 10 633,273 8,738.8 2010-11 11 646,666 9,293.0 2011-12 9 610,167 8,875.3 2012-13 9 642,207 12,252.9 2013-14 9 642,207 15,726.5 2014-15 9 681,806 15,536.3 2015-16 9 681,806 * 12,543.0 2016-17 9 681,806 12,477.0 2017-18 9 681,806 10,070.2 2018-19 11 831,711 10,862.5 2019-20 11 831,711 13,803.0 831,711 9,632.7 2020-21 11 (Jul- Mar) P P: Provisional * : Highest carring capacity since 1979 inception of PNSC 157 Source: Pakistan National Shipping Corporation
536. TABLE 13 .1 D PORTS-Cargo Handled Gwadar Port (000 tonnes) Total Imports Exports - Fiscal Year 2000-01 Karachi Port (000 tonnes) Total Imports Exports 25,981 20,063 5,918 Port Qasim (000 tonnes) Total Imports Exports 13,588 11,841 1,747 2001-02 26,692 20,330 6,362 13,317 10,932 2,385 - - - 2002-03 25,852 19,609 6,244 15,109 11,980 3,129 - - - 2003-04 27,813 21,732 6,081 14,123 11,264 2,859 - - - 2004-05 28,615 22,100 6,515 19,437 16,006 3,431 - - - 2005-06 32,270 25,573 6,697 21,573 17,588 3,985 - - - 2006-07 30,846 23,329 7,517 24,350 19,511 4,839 - - 2007-08 37,192 25,517 11,675 26,424 21,607 4,817 63.6 63.6 - 2008-09 38,732 25,367 13,364 25,030 19,443 5,286 1,496.5 1,496.5 - 2009-10 41,420 27,892 13,528 25,626 19,226 6,380 1,261.8 1,261.8 - 2010-11 41,431 28,589 12,842 26,168 19,511 6,657 476.0 476.0 - 2011-12 37,875 26,201 11,674 24,025 18,075 5,950 1,426.0 1,426.0 - - 2012-13 38,850 26,700 21,150 24,801 17,754 7,047 507.6 507.6 - 2013-14 41,350 30,343 11,007 25,775 18,076 7,699 949.0 649.0 - 2014-15 43,422 29,672 13,750 30,014 21,608 8,405 439.2 438.9 0.3 2015-16 50,045 34,594 15,451 33,321 25,857 7,464 51.4 50.6 0.8 2016-17 52,493 42,638 9,855 37,358 30,995 6,363 82.3 80.4 1.9 2017-18 54,685 41,669 13,016 45,555 38,471 7,084 26.8 24.1 2.7 2018-19 46,893 32,863 14,031 49,031 41,878 7,153 5.0 3.6 1.3 2019-20 41,840 27,206 14,634 51,017 43,509 7,508 27.3 26.6 0.7 39,424 27,546 11,878 43,006 37,255 5,575 54.7 50.9 3.8 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) P P : Provisional - : Not available Source: Karachi Port Trust Port Qasim Authority Gawardar Port Authority 158
537. TABLE 13 .2 PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES CORPORATION-Operational Year PIA Fleet No. of Planes Available Seat (Million Kms.) Route Kms. 2001 45 17,756 265,643 Passenger Load Factor % 66.0 Available Tonne (Million Kms.) 2,541 Operating Expenses (Million Rs.) 43,242 2002 44 15,776 257,858 68.0 2,242 38,097 2003 43 17,259 290,129 70.0 2,476 42,574 2004 42 20,354 354,664 66.0 2,973 55,872 2005 42 20,816 343,525 70.0 3,103 67,075 2006 42 22,092 446,570 69.0 3,369 79,164 2007 39 20,313 383,574 67.0 3,126 76,415 2008 44 18,528 311,131 71.0 2,934 120,499 2009 42 19,859 380,917 70.0 2,933 98,629 2010 40 21,219 424,570 74.0 3,091 106,811 2011 40 21,726 460,719 72.0 2,972 135,023 2012 38 19,850 448,120 70.0 2,859 133,930 2013 38 17,412 411,936 70.0 2,471 129,588 2014 34 16,537 389,455 72.0 2,396 114,944 2015 34 16,666 367,251 70.0 2,436 108,478 2016 37 19,201 382,057 72.0 2,798 121,863 2017 36 19,108 360,937 73.2 2,659 122,193 2018 32 18,081 332,303 77.3 2,521 170,447 2019 31 18,372 389,725 81.3 2,610 166,917 2020 30 8,902 778,609 74.5 1,356 102,912 (Contd.) PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES CORPORATION-Revenue Year Revenue Passengers (Million Kms.) 2001 11,652 Revenue Passengers Carried (000) 4,877 Revenue Load Factor (%) 57.0 Revenue Kilometers Flown (000) 70,958 1,438 121,860 Operating Revenue (Million Rs.) 43,608 2002 10,780 4,166 59.0 61,921 1,331 105,553 43,674 2003 12,009 4,556 59.0 68,851 1,448 115,017 47,951 2004 13,520 5,120 55.0 80,087 1,635 130,977 57,786 2005 14,506 5,499 56.0 82,550 1,729 134,039 64,074 2006 15,124 5,732 54.0 88,302 1,801 141,479 70,587 2007 13,681 5,415 51.0 80,759 1,593 132,416 70,481 2008 13,925 5,617 54.0 79,580 1,581 132,378 88,863 2009 13,891 5,535 52.0 80,108 1,525 132,155 94,564 2010 15,657 5,538 56.0 81,588 1,746 142,940 107,532 2011 15,664 5,953 56.0 84,898 1,678 141,727 116,551 2012 13,874 5,236 53.0 75,750 1,513 127,268 112,130 2013 12,237 4,449 55.0 63,144 1,351 106,476 95,771 2014 11,903 4,202 52.0 61,389 1,242 101,556 99,519 2015 11,711 4,394 49.0 67,630 1,191 111,455 91,269 2016 13,751 5,486 49.0 79,842 1,375 131,838 88,998 2017 13,988 5,342 55.2 75,207 1,469 122,081 90,288 2018 13,975 5,203 58.4 70,089 1,472 110,050 100,051 2019 14,938 5,290 58.6 70,515 1,530 110,640 147,500 2020 6,629 2,541 51.3 Note: PIA Financial Year has changed to Calendar Year Revenue Tonne (Million Kms.) Revenue Hours Flown 38,114 695 58,519 94,683 Source: Pakistan International Airlines Corporation 159
538. TABLE 13 .3 NUMBER OF MOTOR VEHICLES REGISTERED Calendar Year 2006 Motor Cycle (2 Wheels) 2,757,842 Motor Cycle (3 Wheels) 136,394 2007 2,895,734 143,215 2008 3,039,815 2009 Motor Cars Jeeps & Station Wagons 1,372,191 Others (Nos.) Total Motor Cabs/ Taxis 105,373 Buses Trucks 175,589 189,950 896,014 5,633,353 1,440,801 103,397 184,368 199,447 940,851 5,907,813 156,068 1,549,854 104,431 187,367 202,574 961,646 6,201,755 3,215,583 167,910 1,657,860 106,463 195,163 210,944 1,005,441 6,559,364 2010 4,305,121 201,827 1,726,347 122,882 198,790 216,119 1,081,916 7,853,002 2011 5,781,953 266,390 1,881,560 124,651 202,476 225,075 1,178,890 9,660,995 2012 7,500,182 323,189 2,094,289 143,859 215,374 240,888 1,270,788 11,788,569 2013 9,169,528 380,579 2,281,083 145,234 220,347 247,197 1,340,963 13,784,931 2014 11,006,421 466,185 2,437,735 145,424 224,403 253,574 1,406,819 15,940,561 2015 13,081,400 559,114 2,715,322 167,678 229,290 261,845 1,487,460 18,502,109 2016 15,230,960 671,403 2,933,668 170,759 235,614 269,471 1,555,975 21,067,850 2017 (R) 17,518,365 763,076 3,196,542 170,890 242,194 278,120 1,643,489 23,812,676 2018 (R) 19,796,577 843,300 3,495,581 171,117 249,198 284,949 1,725,445 26,566,167 2019 (P) 21,971,120 919,009 3,703,517 171,179 253,939 288,253 1,799,337 29,106,354 2020 (P) 22,707,368 P : Provisional 939,384 R: Revised 3,772,835 171,231 254,778 295,023 1,823,975 29,964,594 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 160
539. TABLE 13 .4 MOTOR VEHICLES ON ROAD-LCV Year D.Van Pickup Jeep (In 000 Nos.) Station Wagon 93.8 2000-01 Mcy/ Scooter 2,218.9 Motor Car 928.0 M. Cab/ Taxi 79.8 Motor Rickshaw 72.4 72.4 68.4 18.3 2001-02 2,481.1 1,040.0 96.4 80.8 116.9 78.3 43.4 122.7 2002-03 2,656.2 1,110.0 104.1 80.9 120.3 80.6 44.4 126.4 2003-04 2,882.5 1,193.1 112.6 81.0 121.3 84.4 47.8 132.4 2004-05 3,063.0 1,264.7 120.3 81.3 121.9 87.6 51.8 140.5 2005-06 3,791.0 1,999.2 122.1 77.8 143.3 93.5 65.7 140.8 2006-07 4,463.8 1,682.2 119.1 79.0 148.9 104.5 85.4 169.1 2007-08 5,037.0 1,853.5 129.8 89.3 163.5 115.3 82.9 163.2 2008-09 5,368.0 2,029.1 138.6 88.4 167.2 125.5 79.0 155.6 2009-10 5,412.1 2,387.2 146.4 89.1 170.4 130.3 78.3 171.4 2010-11 5,468.8 2,822.2 154.6 89.8 173.6 135.3 78.5 175.2 2011-12 4,463.6 3,205.0 158.7 102.4 176.6 141.3 78.6 178.3 2012-13 5,550.0 3,600.0 160.7 120.5 180.0 150.2 78.7 180.1 2013-14 6,100.0 4,600.0 168.8 108.0 181.0 150.0 60.0 185.0 2014-15 6,405.0 4,820.0 178.0 112.0 190.0 158.0 64.0 191.0 2015-16 6,669.3 6,131.7 186.5 118.1 191.4 166.3 54.2 192.0 2016-17 11,975.3 6,954.0 197.4 122.0 204.2 176.4 69.6 201.9 2017-18 14,060.9 7,183.5 197.7 128.1 210.1 187.2 80.0 206.6 2018-19 14,623.3 7,470.8 205.6 133.2 218.5 194.7 83.2 214.9 2019-20 22,808.8 3,960.2 116.1 721.3 139.9 513.5 150.9 903.4 2020-21 E 23,701.8 4,048.7 116.5 767.7 141.3 521.6 155.2 TABLE 13.4 MOTOR VEHICLES ON ROAD-HCV Year Buses Trucks Tractor 2000-01 86.6 132.3 Tankers (Oil & Water) 579.4 8.0 89.0 4,471.0 2001-02 4.1 96.6 145.2 630.5 8.4 71.5 5,016.0 2002-03 4.3 98.3 146.7 663.2 8.4 71.4 5,315.0 2003-04 4.4 100.4 149.2 722.7 8.6 71.3 5,711.9 2004-05 4.5 102.4 151.8 778.1 8.5 69.4 6,048.3 2005-06 4.5 103.6 151.8 822.3 8.6 60.2 7,084.5 2006-07 4.6 108.4 173.3 877.8 8.8 38.6 8,063.6 2007-08 5.2 109.9 177.8 900.5 9.8 40.7 8,878.4 2008-09 5.6 111.1 181.9 911.7 10.8 41.3 9,413.7 2009-10 4.0 123.3 200.5 940.8 11.1 21.8 9,886.4 2010-11 4.5 125.6 209.5 970.9 11.4 24.0 10,443.8 2011-12 5.0 138.2 230.5 1,068.0 12.5 26.4 11,488.2 2012-13 3.7 130.2 220.5 1,128.7 12.3 60.5 11,576.1 2013-14 4.0 140.0 240.0 1,228.0 12.6 65.0 13,242.4 2014-15 4.0 148.0 252.0 1,283.0 12.6 68.0 13,885.6 2015-16 3.8 150.6 263.8 1,351.6 14.0 75.5 15,568.8 2016-17 5.7 156.3 276.2 1,430.1 14.8 74.7 21,858.6 2017-18 6.9 159.2 280.0 1,460.2 15.2 92.4 24,268.0 2018-19 7.2 165.6 291.2 1,518.6 15.8 96.1 25,238.7 2019-20 8.8 193.7 325.6 628.0 24.3 287.1 29,968.8 2020-21 E E: Estimated 9.1 164.6 313.3 636.5 161 Others (In 000 Nos.) Total Ambulance 1.7 20.9 289.1 30,977.9 Source: Ministry of Communication (NTRC) 913.2 (Contd.)
540. TABLE 13 .5 MOTOR VEHICLES-PRODUCTION Fiscal Year Motor Cycle/Rickshaw Cars & Jeeps L.C.Vs Buses Trucks (In Nos.) Tractors 2000-01 117,858 39,573 6,960 1,332 948 32,556 2001-02 133,334 41,171 8,491 1,099 1,141 24,331 2002-03 176,591 63,267 12,174 1,340 1,950 26,501 2003-04 327,446 100,070 14,089 1,380 2,022 36,103 2004-05 571,145 128,381 23,613 1,762 3,204 43,746 2005-06 751,667 163,114 29,581 825 4,518 49,439 2006-07 839,224 179,314 19,672 993 4,410 54,610 2007-08 1,057,751 166,300 21,354 1,146 4,993 53,607 2008-09 917,628 85,240 16,158 657 3,135 60,107 2009-10 1,389,047 122,819 15,568 628 3,425 71,730 2010-11 1,638,457 134,855 19,142 490 2,810 70,855 2011-12 1,649,532 154,706 20,929 568 2,597 48,152 2012-13 1,675,071 121,807 14,517 522 1,923 50,871 2013-14 1,728,137 117,498 17,477 559 2,674 34,524 2014-15 1,777,251 153,633 28,189 575 4,039 48,883 2015-16 2,071,123 180,717 35,836 1,070 5,666 34,914 2016-17 2,500,650 190,466 24,265 1,118 7,712 53,975 2017-18 2,825,071 231,138 29,055 784 9,187 71,894 2018-19 2,459,849 216,780 24,453 913 6,035 49,902 2019-20 1,821,644 97,889 12,068 532 2,945 32,608 1,562,947 1,880,333 91,918 114,627 11,008 14,334 462 2,732 23,266 445 2,509 36,653 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Jul-Mar) 2019-20 2020-21 162
541. TABLE 13 .6 MOTOR VEHICLES-IMPORTS Fiscal Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 (Jul-Mar) 2019-20 2020-21 P Fiscal Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 (Jul-Mar) 2019-20 2020-21 P Fiscal Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 (Jul-Mar) Bicycle Motorised Cycles Motor Cycles 61,187 52,022 28,509 38,249 42,966 99,349 184,023 199,876 211,535 260,532 386,981 541,381 715,496 1,351,813 692,174 262,867 4,143 9,472 12,467 18,512 20,726 33,596 103,694 29,645 36,839 42,840 58,270 102,593 106,046 140,778 124,283 108,502 189,721 167,626 164,078 209,098 200,745 175,577 216,080 246,332 275,931 213,466 291,882 327,001 323,290 393,790 290,091 302,046 199,037 264,399 88,979 96,132 420,302 220,640 Station Wagon Delivery Van 37 284 2,817 345 28 109 29 73 42 8 18 126 4 4 Tractor Agricultural - 2019-20 827 2020-21 P P : Provisional 913 26,779 56,807 - Lorries Passenger Special Trucks Vehicles Lorries Ambulance Public Trucks & Vans 2,616 1,519 1,544 13,463 5,228 551 16,610 2,123 573 4,331 836 875 2,405 363 1,203 12,819 364 5,325 24,728 225 3,371 11,942 441 563 31,027 16,947 2,832 23,946 1,282 1,406 33,489 2,810 927 47,645 3,036 1,398 50,380 2,649 1,929 38,095 3,316 1,098 20,872 1,335 518 10,701 227 197 178 2,586 1,583 311 37 2 4 1 735 2,732 5,477 8,707 10,553 12,810 8,596 2,361 1,711 2,773 Tractor Caterpillar 6,543 20,769 30,588 8,914 2,636 12,052 905 3,684 1,988 2,088 3,086 1,843 4,831 3,796 2,270 Motor Rickshaw Rickshaw chassis with Engine 3 144 15 315 1,727 421 1,029 187 125 6 10,816 84 14,746 ‐ 51,142 ‐ 19,043 ‐ 32,745 ‐ 97,591 ‐ 44,911 1 30,811 192 33,489 161 30,823 28,089 - 9,331 10,241 Tractor Heavy Duty for const. 162 787 Tractor Roads 175 164 Tractor (NES) Passengers M. Cars (NES) 66,338 36,563 202,785 540,025 425,721 750,888 675,810 874,386 671,531 778,073 1,854,622 1,384,775 1,568,723 1,855,468 2,119,541 1,212,456 244 1,587 1,174 690 557 176 344 137 923 54 10 5 - 867,949 1,091,397 - Bus etc. Chassis Buses, Trolly Buses 18 7 24 314 1,017 671 1,553 1,828 1,586 3,997 4,818 9,136 21,046 2,152 1,568 494 Electric Vehicles Pickup ‐ ‐ 6 ‐ 20 1 163 2 ‐ ‐ 2 ‐ ‐ 2 - 5,394 23,303 21,898 8,169 1,871 21,096 35,462 63,786 35,101 29,459 65,751 69,146 110,247 251,019 88,945 87,340 - 65,180 87,459 2 235 189 Electric Bikes 7 5 Sport Utility Vehicle 3-Wheel Loader 10,553 - - 16,961 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 1,646 2,284 904 1,892 434 165 144 0 225 157 434 675 703 713 867 488 2,167 3,378 7,213 19,623 14,205 6,189 12,208 12,930 18,773 16,796 28,743 30,464 51,864 63,638 2,468 12,835 - 75 246 90 131 163 13 13 25 12 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1 14 10 42 11 9 - 402 21 - 563 632 845 744 402 245 148 68 131 347 476 369 843 643 95 86 in Nos. Jeeps 5,409 2,108 1,938 210 14 27 27 35 29 14 21 13 3 76 38 1 1 4 (Contd.) Motor Spl. Truck Road Vehicles etc. Tractors for Goods Chassis for Trailers 269 ‐ 117 3,844 38 498 297 48 997 22 335 2,409 2 9 2,149 ‐ 12 2,154 5 233 1,345 2 16 1,598 ‐ 9 1,252 7 17 1,309 ‐ 3,063 9,991 1 3,267 4,442 10 81 1,836 1,313 152 1,307 1 85 1,278 7 406 1,493 411 2,104 652 217 232 285 861 1,555 668 425 847 1,234 720 685 611 404 477 678 Car Chassis with Engine ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 15 104 64 59 - 232 12 1 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4 ‐ 44 - - : Not Available Cars 20 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 100 10,202 2,956 16,929 2,180 35 44,481 20,768 (Contd.)
542. TABLE 13 .7 POST AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS Fiscal Year 2000-01 Urban 2,302 No. of Post Offices Rural 9,932 Telephones (000 Nos.) 3340 - Mobile Phones (000 Nos.) 742.6 2001-02 1,983 10,284 12,267 3656 - 1,698.5 2002-03 1,808 10,446 12,254 4940 - 2,404.4 2003-04 2,267 9,840 12,107 4460 - 5,022.9 2004-05 1,831 10,499 12,330 5191 - 12,771.2 2005-06 1,845 10,494 12,339 5128 26.6 2006-07 1,849 10,494 12,343 4806 45.2 63,160.9 2007-08 1,849 10,493 12,342 4546 168.0 88,019.8 2008-09 1,852 10,514 12,366 3523 413.8 94,342.0 2009-10 1,580 10,455 12,035 3417 688.4 99,185.8 2010-11 1,580 10,455 12,035 5,720 * 1,491.5 108,894.5 2011-12 1,797 10,238 12,035 5,803 * 2,101.3 120,151.2 2012-13 2,178 10,650 12,828 6,371 * 2,723.7 2013-14 1,813 10,264 12,077 5,232 * 3,795.9 2014-15 2015-16 1,813 1,782 10,264 9,962 12,077 11,744 3,931 3,295 16,885.5 40,148.0 114,658.4 133,241.5 2016-17 2,046 9,450 11,496 2,986 44,586.7 139,758.1 2017-18 2,046 9,450 11,496 2,885 58,339.8 150,238.7 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 (Jul-Mar) 1,717 1,519 8,352 8,626 10,069 10,145 2,575 2,417 71,026.1 83,205.6 161,021.6 167,268.9 1,514 8,589 10,103 2,464 99,628.2 181,740.4 Total 12,233 Broad Band Subscribers (000 Nos.) 34,506.6 128,933.6 @ 139,974.8 Source: (i) : Pakistan Post Office - : Not Available (ii) : Pakistan Telecommunications Company Ltd @ : Includes dial-up and broadband connection * : Including Fixed Local Loop and Wireless Local Loop 164
543. TABLE 14 .1 COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1. Oil/Petroleum (tons) Fiscal Year Households Industry Agriculture Transport Power Other Govt. Total 2000-01 450,960 1,924,048 254,833 8,157,893 6,487,988 372,176 2001-02 334,501 1,611,995 225,742 8,018,777 6,305,419 463,654 17,647,898 16,960,088 2002-03 282,521 1,604,068 196,747 8,082,273 6,019,958 266,387 16,451,954 2003-04 231,459 1,493,080 183,506 8,464,042 2,739,763 309,263 13,421,113 2004-05 192,750 1,542,398 142,062 9,024,783 3,452,581 316,686 14,671,260 2005-06 128,651 1,681,517 81,896 8,156,831 4,218,982 358,807 14,626,684 2006-07 106,148 1,595,981 97,232 7,981,893 6,740,559 325,318 16,847,131 2007-08 120,961 1,071,191 109,351 9,384,482 7,083,933 310,501 18,080,419 2008-09 97,332 969,193 69,793 8,837,197 7,570,418 367,266 17,911,199 2009-10 90,312 984,690 58,072 8,860,880 8,814,274 323,472 19,131,700 2010-11 85,449 1,355,443 40,597 8,892,268 8,138,956 373,794 18,886,507 2011-12 79,448 1,419,125 23,297 9,265,883 7,594,663 295,847 18,678,263 2012-13 97,847 1,379,096 31,828 9,817,546 7,749,007 317,805 19,393,129 2013-14 100,679 1,297,035 46,655 10,299,718 9,006,085 358,512 21,108,684 2014-15 89,017 1,300,190 37,235 11,372,924 8,995,231 365,471 22,160,068 2015-16 74,357 2,023,377 14,512 13,022,573 7,765,629 386,232 23,286,680 2016-17 77,169 1,990,398 12,671 14,582,925 8,531,825 366,958 25,561,946 2017-18 66,075 1,784,781 14,527 16,047,392 6,377,388 387,801 24,677,964 2018-19 60,557 1,299,437 15,021 14,673,564 2,759,465 409,132 19,217,176 2019-20 P 47,292 1,220,638 12,494 14,694,099 1,487,578 389,781 17,851,882 (July-March) 2019-20* 31,261 821,678 8,805 9,194,112 1,205,712 244,462 11,506,030 2020-21 P : Provisional 21,754 1,114,336 9,828 11,386,867 1,819,877 222,984 14,575,646 (Contd...) Note: HSD consumption in agricultural sector is not available seprately and is included under transport sector. Agricultural sector represents LDO only. * Consumption of POL products available till February 2020. Source : Oil Companies Advisory Committee. 167
544. TABLE 14 .1 COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2. Gas (mm cft)* Fiscal Year Households Commercial Cement Fertilizer Power SSGC* Industry Transport CNG** Total 2000-01 140,899 20,618 6,977 175,393 281,255 138,503 4,423 768,068 2001-02 144,186 22,130 7,063 177,589 314,851 151,416 7,369 824,604 2002-03 153,508 22,776 3,445 180,611 335,636 164,968 11,320 872,264 2003-04 155,174 24,192 7,711 185,350 469,738 193,395 15,858 1,051,418 2004-05 172,103 27,191 13,383 190,409 507,398 226,116 24,443 1,161,043 2005-06 171,109 29,269 15,335 198,175 491,766 278,846 38,885 1,223,385 2006-07 185,533 31,375 14,686 193,682 433,672 306,600 56,446 1,221,994 2007-08 204,035 33,905 12,736 200,063 429,892 322,563 72,018 1,275,212 2008-09 214,113 35,536 7,305 201,100 404,140 319,003 88,236 1,269,433 2009-10 219,382 36,955 1,944 220,124 366,906 333,508 99,002 1,277,821 2010-11 232,244 36,466 1,378 228,460 337,401 291,667 113,055 1,240,671 2011-12 261,915 39,627 1,266 211,828 358,381 296,181 119,000 1,288,198 2012-13 291,917 40,689 586 188,020 362,262 284,278 100,228 1,267,980 2013-14 269,135 38,117 522 216,518 349,535 259,032 87,634 1,220,493 2014-15 278,069 35,187 831 225,512 371,562 247,214 66,517 1,224,892 2015-16 271,302 33,633 497 262,923 440,593 231,517 64,455 1,304,920 2016-17 290,868 32,858 583 276,805 446,941 262,006 67,245 1,377,307 2017-18 284,428 32,096 886 248,104 544,654 274,074 70,455 1,454,697 2018-19 311,887 31,205 387 233,834 511,140 53,261 246,706 65,099 1,453,517 2019-20 P 325,740 27,084 - 251,076 437,004 - 229,116 46,482 1,316,502 259,204 22,194 - 184,402 318,388 - 181,114 39,456 1,004,758 2020-21 249,795 19,929 197,652 P : Provisional - : Not available * RLNG withheld by SSGCL. ** Sector wise natural gas consumption is available till Feb-2019. 324,324 - 194,649 30,030 1,016,379 (Contd…) (July-March) 2019-20 168
545. TABLE 14 .1 COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION Fiscal Year 2000-01 Traction 13 3. Electricity (Gwh) House- Comm- Indus Agricul- Street General Other hold ercial trial tural Lights Services* Govt. 22,765 2,774 14,349 4,924 213 - 3,547 Total Power 4. Coal (000 metric ton) Brick Cement Kilns 2,837.9 1,000.0 48,585 Household 1.0 2001-02 11 23,210 2,951 15,141 5,607 212 - 3,490 50,622 1.1 249.4 2,577.5 1,580.6 - 4408.6 2002-03 10 23,624 3,218 16,181 6,016 244 - 3,363 52,656 1.1 203.6 2,607.0 2,078.2 - 4,889.9 2003-04 9 25,846 3,689 17,366 6,669 262 - 3,650 57,491 1.0 184.9 2,589.4 3,289.2 - 6,064.5 2004-05 12 27,601 4,080 18,591 6,988 305 - 3,750 61,327 - 179.9 3,906.7 3,807.2 - 7,893.8 2005-06 13 30,720 4,730 19,803 7,949 353 - 4,035 67,603 - 149.3 4,221.8 3,342.8 - 7,714.0 2006-07 12 33,335 5,363 21,066 8,176 387 - 4,373 72,712 1.0 164.4 3,277.5 4,451.2 - 7,894.1 2007-08 8 33,704 5,572 20,729 8,472 415 - 4,500 73,400 1.0 162.0 3,760.7 6,186.9 - 10,110.6 2008-09 5 32,282 5,252 19,330 8,795 430 - 4,277 70,371 0.8 112.5 3,274.8 5,001.8 - 8,389.9 2009-10 2 34,272 5,605 19,823 9,689 458 - 4,499 74,348 - 125.5 3,005.2 5,007.8 - 8,138.5 2010-11 1 35,885 5,782 21,207 8,971 456 - 4,797 77,099 - 96.5 3,003.6 4,617.1 - 7,717.1 2011-12 1 35,589 5,754 21,801 8,548 478 - 4,590 76,761 - 104.6 3,108.2 4,456.9 - 7,669.7 205.8 Other Govt. - Total 4044.7 2012-13 - 36,116 6,007 22,313 7,697 457 - 4,199 76,789 - 63.0 2,696.0 4,129.9 - 6,889.0 2013-14 - 39,549 6,375 24,356 8,290 458 - 4,381 83,409 - 160.7 2,727.6 3,669.2 - 6,557.5 8,715.4 2014-15 - 41,450 6,512 24,979 8,033 441 - 4,403 85,818 - 151.2 3,010.4 5,553.8 - 2015-16 - 44,486 7,181 25,035 8,526 459 - 4,744 90,431 - 204.4 3,541.1 5,485.3 - 9,230.8 2016-17 - 48,698 7,856 24,010 9,221 484 - 5,260 95,529 - 859.6 2,855.3 7,470.8 - 11,185.8 2017-18 - 54,028 8,606 27,468 10,128 475 - 6,222 106,927 - 4,436.1 3,941.7 9,603.3 - 17,981.1 2018-19 - 53,685 8,513 28,760 9,809 451 1 8,240 109,461 - 5,901.5 5,391.2 10,234.3 - 21,527.1 2019-20 P - 55,132 7,874 25,647 9,758 385 - 13,273 112,070 - 9,700.0 5,300.0 10,300.0 - 25,300.0 2019-20*** 2020-21 - : Not available 39,461 41,508 6,313 20,461 6,246 22,280 P: Provisional 7,127 7,558 291 318 178 254 6,356 6,436 80,187 84,600 (July-March) 10,498.0 2,581.0 6,000.0 - 19,079.0 8,925.0 4,125.0 7,875.0 - 20,925.0 Source: Ministry of Energy, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) * : Introduction of General Services category post notification of K-Electric's MYT on May 22, 2019. ** : Consumption of electricity from AJK Hydro Electric Board is not yet received while electricity consumption from WAPDA is uptill Feb-2019. Consumption of coal is estimated. *** : Consumption of electricity from AJK Hydro Electric Board is estimated for the last three months. Note: Sectoral consumption data of coal is mostly not available and has therefore been estimated. 169
546. TABLE 14 .2 COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES (ELECTRICITY) Fiscal Year Installed Capacity MW Generation GW/h (a) Hydroelectric Installed Generation Capacity (GW/h) (MW) (b) Thermal Installed Generation Capacity (GW/h) (MW) Nuclear Installed Generation Capacity (GW/h) (MW) Renewable Installed Generation Capacity (GW/h) (MW) Imported (GW/h) 2000-01 17,498 68,117 4,867 17,194 12,169 48,926 462 1,997 - - - 2001-02 17,799 72,405 5,051 18,941 12,286 51,174 462 2,291 - - 0.36 2002-03 17,798 75,682 5,051 22,351 12,285 51,591 462 1,740 - - 2003-04 19,257 80,900 6,496 26,944 12,299 52,122 462 1,760 - - 73 2004-05 19,384 85,738 6,499 25,671 12,423 57,162 462 2,795 - - 109 2005-06 19,450 93,774 6,499 30,862 12,489 60,283 462 2,484 - - 146 2006-07 19,420 98,384 6,479 31,953 12,478 63,972 462 2,288 - - 171 2007-08 19,420 95,860 6,480 28,707 12,478 63,877 462 3,077 - - 199 2008-09 19,786 91,843 6,481 27,784 12,843 62,214 462 1,618 - - 227 2009-10 20,922 95,608 6,481 28,093 13,978 64,371 462 2,894 - - 249 2010-11 22,477 94,653 6,481 31,811 15,209 59,153 787 3,420 - - 269 2011-12 22,797 95,365 6,556 28,517 15,454 61,308 787 5,265 - - 274 2012-13 22,812 96,497 6,773 29,857 15,289 61,711 750 4,553 - - 375 2013-14 23,531 104,089 6,893 31,873 15,887 66,707 750 5,090 - - 419 2014-15 23,759 107,408 7,030 32,474 15,541 67,886 750 5,804 438 802 443 2015-16 25,889 111,763 7,122 34,633 17,115 70,512 750 4,605 902 1,549 463 2016-17 29,944 123,614 7,129 32,183 20,488 81,268 1,090 6,999 1,237 2,668 496 2017-18 33,554 131,275 7,139 27,925 23,347 89,614 1,430 9,880 1,637 3,857 556 2018-19 35,114 128,532 8,639 27,339 23,347 86,602 1,430 9,909 1,698 4,682 487 2019-20 P 38,619 134,746 9,861 38,988 25,244 81,555 1,467 9,898 2,047 4,305 514 36,166 88,368 9,874 27,270 23,312 51,629 1,345 7,049 1,635 2,057 363 28,543 22,898 (b) MW: Mega Watt 53,550 2,490 6,915 1,921 3,007 356 (July-March) 2019-20 2020-21 37,183 92,371 9,874 - : Not Available (a) GWh: Giga Watt hour 170 Source: Ministry of Energy
547. TABLE 14 .3 COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES (OIL, GAS, PETROLEUM, COAL) Fiscal Year Oil Gas Production mcf* Petroleum Products Imports Produc000 tons tion Imports mcf Coal Crude Oil Imports Local Crude Extraction Imports 000 barrels 000 barrels 2000-01 52,505 21,084 857,433 - 10,029 8,337 950 3,095 2001-02 51,982 23,195 923,758 - 9,023 9,028 1,081 3,328 2002-03 52,512 23,458 992,589 - 8,437 9,084 1,578 3,312 2003-04 57,699 22,625 1,202,750 - 5,170 9,740 2,789 3,275 2004-05 61,161 24,119 1,344,953 - 5,676 10,474 3,307 4,587 2005-06 63,546 23,936 1,400,026 - 6,009 10,498 2,843 4,871 2006-07 60,694 24,615 1,413,581 - 8,330 10,314 4,251 3,643 2007-08 64,912 25,603 1,454,194 - 9,025 10,754 5,987 4,124 2008-09 62,115 24,033 1,460,679 - 9,974 9,828 4,652 3,738 2009-10 53,081 23,706 1,482,847 - 11,178 8,996 4,658 3,481 2010-11 51,306 24,041 1,471,591 - 12,371 8,911 4,267 3,450 2011-12 47,104 24,573 1,558,959 - 11,507 8,395 4,057 3,613 2012-13 57,037 27,841 1,505,841 - 10,489 9,914 3,710 3,179 2013-14 61,933 31,585 1,493,508 - 11,523 10,926 3,119 3,438 2014-15 64,208 34,490 1,465,760 20,191 13,347 11,253 5,004 3,712 2015-16 66,855 31,652 1,481,551 102,735 13,550 11,021 4,885 4,142 000 tons 000 tons Production 000 tons 2016-17 66,737 32,269 1,471,855 190,406 15,145 11,513 7,021 4,165 2017-18 79,607 32,557 1,458,936 320,180 13,344 12,929 13,684 4,297 2018-19 66,833 32,496 1,436,455 380,879 8,807 11,839 15,686 5,463 2019-20 P 52,030 28,087 1,316,635 355,559 7,539 9,585 16,422 8,831 (July-March) 2019-20*** 38,820 19,791 898,400 279,334 5,316 7,238 13,297 5,782 2020-21 48,180 20,768 962,397 346,750 7,313 7,402 12,183 ** 6,375 P : Provisional - : Not available (a) MW: Mega Watt (b) GWh: Giga Watt hour * : Million cubic feet ** : Figure of coal production and import are avaialable till February 2021. *** : Production of crude oi, gas and coal is avaialable till February 2020. 171 Ministry of Energy **
548. TABLE 14 .4 Consumer-End Applicable Tariff Description Fixed Charges Rs./ kW/M A A1- Residential Up to 50 Units For peak load requirement less than 5 kW 01-100 Units 101-200 Units 201-300 Units 301-700Units Above 700 Units For peak load requirement exceeding 5 kW) Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak Temporary Supply A2- Commercial For peak load requirement less than 5 kW For peak load requirement exceeding 5 kW Regular Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak Temporary Supply Qtr. Adjust. for 3rd & 4th Quarterly Uniform quarter and interim increase on Tariff 1st QTR 2019account Distribution Margin, 20 w.e.f. 1 December notified w.e.f. 2019 01-10-2019 Notified Tariff w.e.f. 01-01-2019 * Industrial Support Package w.e.f. July 01, 2019 Qtr. Adjust. for 1st & 2nd quarter, Notified w.e.f 01-07-2019 Variable Charges Variable Charges Variable Charges Variable Charges Variable Charges Variable Charges Rs./kWh B Rs./kWh C Rs./kWh D Rs./kWh E Rs./kWh F Rs./kWh G= B+C+D+E+F Total Applicable Tariff 2.00 - - - 2.00 5.79 8.11 10.2 17.6 20.7 - - - 0.75 0.75 0.83 0.83 0.07 0.07 5.79 8.11 10.20 19.25 22.35 20.7 14.38 20.84 0.75 0.75 1.80 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.07 0.07 0.07 22.35 16.03 23.54 0 0.83 0.26 19.09 19.68 21.6 15.63 18.39 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 22.57 24.49 18.52 21.28 A3- General Services 17.56 1.8 0.83 0.26 20.45 B- Industrial B1 B1 Peak B1 Off Peak B2 B2 - TOU (Peak) B2 - TOU (Off-peak) B3 - TOU (Peak) B3 - TOU (Off-peak) B4 - TOU (Peak) B4 - TOU (Off-peak) Temporary Supply 15.28 18.84 13.28 14.78 18.78 13.07 18.78 12.98 18.78 12.88 16.36 1.8 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 18.17 18.73 16.17 17.67 18.67 15.96 18.67 15.87 18.67 15.77 19.25 18.68 18.18 21.6 15 17.98 21.6 14.8 17.88 21.6 14.7 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 21.57 21.07 24.49 17.89 20.87 24.49 17.69 20.77 24.49 17.59 15.68 18.6 11.35 5.35 5.35 5.35 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.49 1.49 1.49 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 18.57 21.49 14.24 7.934 7.934 7.934 18.68 18.68 18.68 15.9 21.6 14.7 18.68 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 21.57 21.57 21.57 18.79 24.49 17.59 21.57 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 20.77 24.49 17.59 20.87 24.49 17.69 20.77 24.49 17.59 20.87 24.49 17.69 20.77 24.49 17.59 Source: NEPRA C - Single Point Supply C1(a) Supply at 400 Volts-less than 5 kW C1(b) Supply at 400 Volts-exceeding 5 Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak C2 Supply at 11 kV Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak C3 Supply above 11 kV Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak D- Agricultural Scarp Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak Agricultual Tube-wells Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak Public Lighting - Tariff G Residential Colonies - Tariff H Railway Traction Tariff I Tariff K - AJK Time of Use (TOU) - Peak Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak Tariff K -Rawat Lab 18 400 400 400 400 380 360 400 400 380 380 360 360 200 200 200 360 360 (3.00) (3.00) (3.00) (3.00) J- Special Contract J-1 For Supply at 66 kV & above 360 17.88 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Peak 21.6 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak 360 14.7 1.80 J-2 (a) For Supply at 11, 33 kV 380 17.98 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Peak 21.6 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak 380 14.8 1.80 J-2 (b) For Supply at 66 kV & above 360 17.88 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Peak 21.6 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak 360 14.7 1.80 J-3 (a) For Supply at 11, 33 kV 380 17.98 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Peak 21.6 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak 380 14.8 1.80 J-3 (b) For Supply at 66 kV & above 360 17.88 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Peak 21.6 1.80 Time of Use (TOU) - Off-Peak 360 14.7 1.80 * Industrial Support Package (ISP) reduction shall be inclusive of any downward revision of Fuel Price Adjustment notified from time to time. Note:FC Surcharge @ Rs. 0.43/kWh and NJ Surcharge @ 0.10/kWh are applicable in addition to above on all cosumer categories except life line. 172
549. TABLE 14 .5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs 01-06-2014 01-07-2014 01-08-2014 01-09-2014 01-10-2014 01-11-2014 01-12-2014 01-01-2015 Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI 74.89 107.97 107.97 106.56 103.62 94.19 84.53 78.28 Motor Gasoline 96.45 HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) 74.19 97.40 97.05 96.99 95.68 87.52 83.18 71.92 Kerosene 75.30 109.34 109.34 108.34 107.39 101.21 94.09 86.23 HSD 73.67 94.13 93.27 92.08 91.94 83.37 77.98 67.50 LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) 86.71 86.74 84.84 85.00 77.60 73.05 59.10 JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 87.06 86.42 85.52 84.66 77.01 72.72 58.76 JP-8 - : Not available Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 14.5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs 01-02-2015 01-03-2015 01-07-2015 01-08-2015 01-09-2015 01-10-2015 01-11-2015 01-12-2015 Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI 70.29 70.29 77.79 76.76 73.76 73.76 76.26 76.26 Motor Gasoline 83.81 82.79 79.79 79.79 79.79 80.66 HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) 61.44 61.44 64.94 60.11 57.11 57.11 57.11 56.32 Kerosene 80.61 80.61 87.11 85.05 82.04 82.04 83.79 83.79 HSD 57.94 57.94 61.51 56.59 53.59 53.59 53.59 53.23 LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) 47.30 53.59 55.81 49.33 42.65 45.31 46.12 45.24 JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 46.96 53.25 55.47 48.99 42.31 44.96 45.77 44.90 JP-8 - : Not available Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) 173
550. TABLE 14 .5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs 01-01-2016 01-02-2016 01-03-2016 01-04-2016 01-05-2016 01-06-2016 01-07-2016 01-08-2016 Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI 76.25 71.25 62.77 64.27 64.27 64.27 64.27 64.27 Motor Gasoline 80.66 75.66 72.68 72.68 72.68 72.68 72.68 72.68 HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) 48.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 Kerosene 80.79 75.79 71.12 72.52 72.52 72.52 72.52 72.52 HSD 44.94 39.94 37.97 37.97 37.97 37.97 43.35 43.35 LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) 37.50 29.66 32.67 36.35 38.87 38.87 48.82 45.19 JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 37.15 29.31 31.36 36.01 37.37 37.37 44.81 42.27 JP-8 - : Not available Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 14.5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs 01-09-2016 01-10-2016 01-11-2016 01-12-2016 01-01-2017 16-01-2017 01-02-2017 16-02-2017 Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI 64.27 64.27 64.27 66.27 67.27 68.04 70.29 71.29 Motor Gasoline 72.68 72.68 HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 43.25 Kerosene 72.52 72.52 72.52 75.22 75.22 77.22 49.48 80.48 HSD 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) 40.51 42.19 46.67 44.61 JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 40.17 41.84 46.33 43.47 JP-8 - : Not available Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) 174
551. TABLE 14 .5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date 01-03-2017 01-04-2017 01-05-2017 01-06-2017 01-07-2017 01-08-2017 06-08-2017 01-09-2017 EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 73.00 74.00 74.00 72.80 71.30 71.30 69.50 71.50 44.00 82.00 44.00 44.00 83.00 44.00 44.00 83.00 44.00 44.00 81.40 44.00 44.00 79.90 44.00 44.00 79.90 44.00 44.00 77.40 44.00 44.00 77.40 44.00 44.40 45.98 45.98 48.77 44.05 45.63 45.63 48.41 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 14.5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date 01-10-2017 01-11-2017 01-12-2017 01-01-2018 01-02-2018 01-07-2018 08-07-2018 01-08-2018 EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 73.50 75.99 77.47 81.53 84.51 99.50 95.24 95.24 48.00 79.40 46.00 53.19 84.59 49.00 57.58 85.95 52.12 64.32 89.91 58.37 70.18 95.83 64.30 87.70 119.31 80.91 83.96 112.94 75.37 83.96 112.94 75.37 52.26 52.91 57.22 62.35 65.85 76.18 76.18 81.44 51.91 52.96 56.87 175 59.41 65.48 76.16 76.16 81.24 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)
552. TABLE 14 .5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date 01-09-2018 01-10-2018 01-11-2018 01-12-2018 01-01-2019 01-02-2019 01-03-2019 01-04-2019 EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 92.83 92.83 97.83 95.83 90.97 90.38 92.89 98.89 83.50 106.57 75.96 863.50 106.57 75.96 86.50 112.94 82.44 83.50 110.94 77.44 82.98 106.68 75.28 82.31 106.68 75.03 86.31 111.43 77.54 89.31 117.43 80.54 80.94 84.83 92.34 84.42 73.59 73.39 73.48 81.95 84.64 92.15 80.75 84.23 73.41 73.20 73.29 81.92 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 14.5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date 01-05-2019 05-05-2019 01-06-2019 01-07-2019 EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 1-8-2019 1-9-2019 1-10-2019 1-11-2019 98.89 108.42 112.68 112.68 117.83 113.24 113.24 114.24 89.31 117.43 80.54 96.77 122.32 86.94 98.46 126.82 88.62 98.46 126.82 88.62 103.84 132.47 97.52 99.57 127.14 91.89 99.57 127.14 91.89 97.18 127.41 85.33 85.75 85.75 87.45 83.99 92.30 87.90 89.33 86.15 85.73 85.73 87.42 176 83.97 92.28 87.68 89.31 86.12 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)
553. TABLE 14 .5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 1-12-2019 1-1-2020 1-2-2020 1-3-2020 25-3-2020 27.6.20 1.8.2020 1.9.2020 113.99 116.60 116.60 111.59 96.58 100.11 103.97 103.97 96.35 125.01 82.43 99.45 127.26 84.51 99.45 127.26 84.51 92.45 122.25 77.51 77.45 107.25 62.51 59.32 101.46 56.24 65.29 106.46 62.86 65.29 106.46 62.86 85.34 93.02 93.02 80.92 77.37 49.05 24.85 48.64 85.32 87.09 87.09 74.06 51.46 19.31 24.84 48.61 Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) TABLE 14.5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 16.9.2020 1.10.2020 16.10.2020 1.11.2020 16.11.2020 1.12.2020 16.12.2020 1.1.2021 103.97 103.97 102.4 100.69 101.69 103.69 106.00 109.20 65.29 106.46 62.86 65.29 104.06 62.86 65.29 104.06 62.86 65.29 103.22 62.86 65.29 101.43 62.86 65.29 105.43 62.86 70.29 108.44 67.86 73.65 110.24 71.81 - - - - - - - - - - 177 - Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)
554. TABLE 14 .5 OIL SALE PRICES Rs/Ltrs Date EX-NRL/PRL KARACHI Motor Gasoline HOBC (Automotive 100 Octane) Super (90 Octane) Blend of Motor Gasoline @ 60% and HOBC 40%) Kerosene HSD LDO Aviation gasoline (100LL) JP-1: i) For sale to PIA Domestic Flight ii) For sale to PIA foreign flights & foreign airline iii) For Cargo & Technical Landing Flights JP-4 JP-8 - : Not available 16.1.2021 1.2.2021 16.2.2021 1.3.2021 16.3.2021 1.4.2021 111.90 111.90 111.90 111.90 110.35 108.56 76.65 113.19 76.23 80.19 116.08 79.23 80.19 116.08 79.23 80.19 116.08 79.23 83.61 116.08 81.42 82.06 113.08 79.86 - - - - - - - Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) 178
555. TABLE 14 .6 GAS SALE PRICES Unit: Rupees/MMbtu. Category 1-1-2013 DOMESTIC (Slab) i) Upto 1.77 M cu.ft./month ii) Upto 1.77 to 3.55 M cu.ft./month 106.14 iii) Upto 3.55 to 7.10 M cu.ft./month iv) Upto 7.10 to 10.64 Mcu.ft./month 212.28 v) Upto 10.64 to 14.20 M cu.ft./month 530.00 vi) Upto 14.20 to 17.75 M cu.ft./month vii) All over 17.75 BULK METER 530.00 COMMERCIAL 636.83 SPECIAL COMMERCIAL ROTI TANDOOR Upto 50 Over 50 upto 100 106.14 Over 100 upto 200 Over 200 upto 300 212.28 Over 300 636.83 ICE FACTORIES 636.83 General Industry 488.23 Cement 742.97 CNG Station 656.32 Pakistan Steel Captive Power 488.23 Independent Power Projects 488.23 FERTILIZER SNGPL'S SYSTEM (i) For Feed Stock Pak American Fertilizer Ltd. 123.41 F.F.C Jorden Engro Fertilizer Ltd. 67.38 Dawood Hercules/ Pak Arab 123.41 Pak China /Hazara 123.41 SSGCL'S SYSTEM F.F.Bin Qasim Ltd. 123.41 F.F.Bin Qasim Ltd. (Add. 10mmcfd FS) 67.38 (ii) For Fuel Generation all Fertilizer Co. 488.23 FOR MARI GAS CO. SYSTEM (i) For Feed Stock (a) Engro Chemical 123.41 FFC (Goth Machi) 123.41 Fatima Fertilizer 67.38 FFC (Mirpur M) 123.41 Foundation Power Company 488.23 (ii) For Power Generation 488.23 POWER Stations SNGPL & SSGCL'S SYSTEM 488.23 Liberty Power Limited 1,505.20 GAS DIRECTLY SOLD TO WAPDA'S GUDDU POWER STATION SUI FIELD (917 BTU) 488.23 KANDKOT FIELD (866 BTU) 488.23 MARI FIELD (754 BTU) 488.23 SARA /SURI FIELDS Foundation Power Company 488.23 23-8-13 1-1-14 1-9-2015 106.14 106.14 212.28 530.69 1-1-2016 1-4-2016 1-7-2016 15-12-16 110.00 110.00 110.00 212.28 530.69 220.00 600.00 220.00 600.00 220.00 600.00 530.69 636.83 530.69 636.83 600.00 700.00 600.00 600.00 106.14 106.14 110.00 110.00 110.00 212.28 636.83 636.83 488.23 742.97 656.32 212.28 636.83 636.83 488.23 742.97 656.32 220.00 700.00 700.00 700.00 750.00 700.00 220.00 220.00 700.00 600.00 750.00 700.00 700.00 600.00 750.00 700.00 573.28 488.23 573.28 488.23 600.00 600.00 613.00 600.00 613.00 600.00 400.00 123.41 123.41 200.00 123.41 123.00 123.00 *-69.10 123.41 123.41 73.17 123.41 123.41 70.61 200.00 200.00 123.41 123.41 72.72 123.00 123.00 72.72 123.00 123.00 123.41 69.10 488.23 123.41 73.17 488.23 200.00 70.61 600.00 123.41 123.00 72.72 600.00 123.00 72.72 600.00 123.41 123.41 69.10 123.41 488.23 488.23 123.41 123.41 73.17 123.41 488.23 488.23 200.00 200.00 70.61 123.41 123.41 72.73 123.00 123.00 72.72 123.00 613.00 123.00 123.00 72.72 123.00 400.00 488.23 1,505.20 488.23 1,505.20 600.00 713.89 648.52 443.58 443.58 488.23 488.23 488.23 488.23 488.23 488.23 600.00 600.00 600.00 613.00 613.00 613.00 613.00 400.00 488.23 488.23 600.00 613.00 613.00 400.00 72.73 72.73 Source : Directorate General of Gas. 179
556. TABLE 14 .6 GAS SALE PRICES Sectors 1. DOMESTIC 3 Upto 50 M per month Upto 100 M3 per month Upto 200 M3 per month 3 Upto 300 M per month Upto 400 M3 per month 3 Upto 500 M per month Over 500 M3 per month 2. Bulk Consumers w.e.f 27-09-18 * w.e.f 01-07-2019 1. DOMESTIC 3 Upto 50 M per month Upto 100 M3 per month Upto 200 M3 per month 3 Upto 300 M per month Upto 400 M3 per month 3 Above 400 M per month 121 127 264 275 780 1460 1460 780 780 121 127 264 275 780 980 * w.e.f 01-07-2019 1. DOMESTIC Upto 0.5 hm3 per month Upto 1 hm3 per month Upto 2 hm3 per month Upto 3 hm3 per month Upto 4 hm3 per month Above 4 hm3 per month 2. Bulk Consumers 121 300 553 738 1107 1460 780 3. Special Commercial (Roti Tanoor) Upto 1 hm3 = 110 Upto 100 M3 per month 110 Upto 3 hm3 = 220 Upto 300 M3 per month 220 Above 3 hm3 = 700 Over 400 M3 per month 4. Commercial 980 5. Ice Factories 980 6. Textile (Including Jute), carpets, leather, sports and surgical goods 600 7 Industrial 780 8. Captive Power 780 9. Compressed Natural Gas(CNG) 980 10. Cement 975 11. Fertilizer Companies On SNGPL's System (a) For Feed Stock i. Pak American Fertilizer Limited. ii. Dawood Hercules Chemical Limited iii. Pak Arab Fertilizer Limited iv. Pak China Fertilizer Limited v. Hazara Phosphate Fertilizer Plant Limited 121 300 553 738 1107 1460 revert back on 14-12-2018 3. Special Commercial (Roti Tanoor) Upto 50 M3 per month Upto 100 M3 per month Upto 200 M3 per month Upto 300 M3 per month 3 Upto 400 M per month Over 400 M3 per month w.e.f 01-01-2019 110 110 220 220 700 700 1283 1283 786 1021 1021 1283 1277 185 185 185 185 Upto 0.5 hm3 per month Upto 1 hm3 per month Upto 2 hm3 per month Upto 3 hm3 per month Over 3 hm3 per month 300 300 300 300 300 4. Commercial 5. Ice Factories 6.General Indusries 1283 1283 1054 7. Export Oriented (General Industrial) 8. Export Orinted (Captive) 8. Capitive Power (General Industry) CNG Region-I CNG Region-II Cement 11. Fertilizer Companies On SNGPL's System (a) For Feed Stock i. Pak American Fertilizer Limited. ii. Dawood Hercules Chemical Limited iii. Pak Arab Fertilizer Limited iv. Pak China Fertilizer Limited v. Hazara Phosphate Fertilizer Plant Limited 819 852 1087 1371 1350 1277 302 302 302 302 302 185 vi. FFC Jordan Fertilizer vii. ENGRO Fertilizer Limited On SSGCL's System Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited FFBQL - additional 10 MMCFD feed stock (b) For Fuel - All Fertilizer Companies On MARI's SYSTEM (a) For Feed Stock i. Engro Fertilizer Company Limited ii. Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (Goth Machi/Mirpur Mathelo) iii. Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited iv. Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited, Mirpur Mathelo, District Gholki (b) For Fuel 12. Power Station (WAPDA's and KESCS's i. WAPDA & KESC Power Station ii. WAPDA's Gas Turbine Power Station Nishatabad, Faislabad iii. Liberty Power Limited 13. Independent Power Producers 14. On MARI's System (a) For Feed Stock i. Engro Fertilizer Company Limited ii. Fauji Fertilzer Company Limited (Goth Machi/Mirpur Mathelo) iii. Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited iv. Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited, Mirpur Mathelo, District Gholki US$ 0.70 US$ 0.70 185 300 780 1021 185 300 185 US$ 0.70 300 US$ 0.70 780 1021 629 824 629 1005.19 vii. ENGRO Fertilizer Limited US$ 0.70 On SSGCL's System (i) a) Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (b) For Fuel - All Fertilizer Companies On MARI's SYSTEM (a) For Feed Stock i. Engro Fertilizer Company Limited ii. Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (Goth Machi/Mirpur Mathelo) iii. Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited iv. Foundation Power Company (Dharki) Limited (b) For Fuel 12. Power Station (WAPDA's and KESCS's i. WAPDA & KESC Power Station ii. WAPDA's Gas Turbine Power Station Nishatabad, Faislabad 302 1023 302 302 US$ 0.70 857 1023 857 857 824 1283.47 1283.47 629 824 185 300 185 US$ 0.70 13. Independent Power Producers 857 300 US$ 0.70 (b) For Fuel 780 1021 15. RAW Gas Sold to WAPDA's GUDDU Power Station i. Sui Field (917 BTU) and Kanhkot (866 BTU)-PPL ii. Mari (754)-MGCL iii. Foundation Power Company (Dharki) Limited iv. Sara/Suri Fields-Tullow 629 629 824 824 629 824 *: Effective till to date Source : Directorate General of Gas. 180
557. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES RUPEES One Lakh Ten Lakh One Crore One Billion One Trillion =One hundred thousand =One million =Ten million =One thousand million =One thousand billion =100,000 =1,000,000 =10,000,000 CURRENCY EQUIVALENT Prior to 1972 One Rupee = US$ 0.21 One US$ = Rs. 4.76 With effect from 8th January, 1982, Rupee is floating against Dollar and is linked to a basket of currencies. WEIGHTS One Gram One Pound One Kilogram One Metric tonne One Maund One Tonne One cotton bale One bushel =0.035 Ounce =16 ounces =1000 grams =1000 Kilograms =37.3242 Kilograms =2240 pounds =375 Ibs. =0.73 mds =0.0857 Tola =453.592 grams =1.07 seers =2.205 pounds =0.9842 ton =26.792 Maunds LENGTH One yard One mile One sq. yard One sq. metre One Acre One Hectare =3 feet =36 inches =1760 yards =0.83613 sq. metres =1.196 sq. yards =4840 sq. yards =2.47 Acres =0.914 metre =1.609 kilometres VOLUME One cubic metre =35.315 cubic feet =1.016 metric tonnes =170.2 kg =27.25 kg =0.4049 hectare LIQUID MEASURE One barrel =36 gallons (imperial) =163.656 litres YEAR Fiscal/Trade/Agriculture Year in Pakistan starts from 1stJuly and ends on 30th June every year CROPPING SEASONS Kharif – Crop sowing from April to June and harvested during October-December Rabi – Crops sowing from October to December and harvested during April-May 181
558. ABBREVIATIONS A &P ACD ADB ADP ADS AECHs AEDB AEPAM AGHA AIDS AIIB AJK AMA APCMA APTTCA ARE ASER ATL AUM B2C BB BHUs BINO BISP BMEC BMR BMRL BOT CAD CAGR CAN CAR CBU CCI CCOE CCTs CDNS CFAO CFIs CGPM CIA CiC CIIE CKD CKO CM & TSA CMI CMS Assessment & Processing Additional Custom Duty Asian Development Bank Annual Development Programmes Assets Declaration Scheme Atomic Energy Cancer Hospitals Alternative Energy Development Board Academy of Educational Planning & Management Agha Steel Industries Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Azad Jammu & Kashmir Asaan Mobile Account All Pakistan Cement Manufacturer Association Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Coordination Authority Alternative Renewable Energy Annual Status of Education Report Active Taxpayer List Assets Under Management Business-to-Consumer Branchless Banking Basic Health Units Bahawalpur Institute of Nuclear Oncology Benazir Income Support Program Baluchistan Mineral Exploration Company Limited Balancing, Modernization and Replacement Baluchistan Minerals Resource Company Limited Built-Operate-Transfer Current Account Deficit Compound Annual Growth Rate Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Capital Adequacy Ratio Completely Built Up Council of Common Interests Cabinet Committee on Energy Conditional Cash Transfers Central Directorate of National Savings Chief Finance and Accounts Officer Commercial Financial Institutions Clean Green Pakistan Movement Chief Internal Auditor Currency in Circulation China International Import Expo Completely Knocked Down Centralized Know Your Customer Organization Cash Management and Treasury Single Account Census of Manufacturing Industries Complaint Management System 181
559. COPHCL CPEC CPFTA CPI CPPA CRC CRMs CRVS CSC CSR DAP DCCI DPB DR DSSI ECC ECE EDCF EDI EFS EFS EMDEs EOBI EPI ERC ESWs EU EV FAO FASTER FATF FBR FCA FCVA FDI FED FRSU FX FXs GCF GCISC GDP GEM GER GI GIDC GIS GLOFs G-MSS GMTN GNI China Overseas Ports Holding Company Limited China Pakistan Economic Corridor China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement Consumer Price Index Central Power Purchasing Agency Corporate Restructuring Company Complaint Resolution Mechanisms Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Consumer Support Center Corporate Social Responsibility Diammonium phosphate Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry Domestic Private Bank Disaster Recovery Debt Services Suspension Initiative Economic Coordination Committee Early Childhood Education Economic Development Cooperation Fund Electronic Data Interchange Export Finance Scheme Exports Finance Scheme Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Employees Old-Age Benefits Institution Expanded Programme for Immunization Ehsaas Registration Centers Ehsaas Saving Wallets Europe Union Electric Vehicle Food and Agriculture Organization Fully Automated Sales Tax e-Refund Financial Action Task Force Federal Board of Revenue Federal Committee on Agriculture Foreign Currency Value Account Foreign Direct Investment Federal Excise Duty Floating Re-gasification Storage Units Foreign Exchange Foreign Exchange Green Climate Fund Global Change Impact Studies Centre Gross Domestic Product Growth Enterprise Market Gross Enrolment Rate Geographical Indication Gas Infrastructure Development Cess Geographical Information System Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Government ’s Mark-Up Subsidy Scheme Global Medium-Term Note Gross National Income 182
560. GSP GST HCV HDI HEC HEDP HEIs : HIV I&P IBB IBI ICAC ICTs IFA IFIs IFL IGCEP IMR INMOL IPOs IREN ITeS ITU JHPIEGO JP&VCCs JPCs JPHLEPD KANUPP KPEC LCV LEAs LEG LHW LLITN LMA LMC LPG LSM LTFF LTFF MDAS MDM MFBs MFIs MMCFD MMF MNFS&R MOU MSCI NAP NAVTTC Geological Survey of Pakistan General Sales Tax Heavy Commercial Vehicle Human Development Index Higher Education Commission Higher Education Development Programme Higher Education Institutes Human Immunodeficiency Virus Investigation & Prosecution Unit Islamic Banking Branches Islamic Banking Industry International Cotton Advisory Committee Information and Communication Technologies Individual Financial Assistance International Financial Institutions Interest Free Loan Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan Infant mortality rate Institute of Nuclear Medicine & Oncology Lahore Initial Public Offerings Inland Revenue Enforcement Network Information Technology enabled Services International Telecommunications Union Johns Hopkins Program for International Education in Gynecology and Obstetrics Job Placement and Vocational Counseling Centres Job Placement Centres Japan-Pakistan High Level Economic Policy Dialogue Karachi Nuclear Power Plant Khyber Pass Economic Corridor Light Commercial Vehicles Law Enforcement Agencies Labour Expert Group Lady Health Workers Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets Limited Mandate Accounts Lubricant Marketing Company Liquefied Petroleum Gas Large Scale Manufacturing Long Term Finance Facility Long Term Financing Facility Ministries, Divisions, Attached Departments, Sub-Ordinate Offices Mobile Device Manufacturing Micro-Finance Banks Microfinance Institutions Million Cubic Feet per day Man Made Fiber Ministry of National Food Security and Research Memorandum Of Understanding Morgan Stanley Capital International National Adaptation Plan National Vocational and Technical Training Commission 183
561. NBFCs Non-Bank Finance Companies NCC National Coordination Committee NCDs Non-Communicable Diseases NCSP National Cyber Security Policy NDA Net Domestic Assets NDC National Data Center NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NER Net Enrolment Rate NFA Net Foreign Assets NFC National Finance Commission NFIS National Financial Inclusion Strategy NFNE Non Food and No Energy NHA National Highway Authority NID National Immunization Day NM &O Nuclear Medicine &Oncology NMDC National Minerals Data Center NNS National Nutrition Survey NOU National Ozone Unit NP Nitrophosphate NPA Non-Performing Assets NPGI National Poverty Graduation Initiative NPK Nitrogen, Phosphorus, And Potassium NPLs Non-Performing Loans NPMC National Price Monitoring Committee NPPs Nuclear Power Plants NRPs Non-Resident Pakistanis NRV Account Non-Resident Pakistani Rupee Value Account NRVA NRP Rupee Value Account NSER National Socio-Economic Registry NSS National Savings Schemes NSS National Skill Strategy NVQF National Vocational Qualification Framework NYDF National Youth Development Framework OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OFC Optic Fiber Cable PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Pak-EPA Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency PAMA Pakistan Automotive Manufacturer Association PARC Pakistan Agriculture Research Council PASSCO Pakistan Agriculture Storage & Services Corporation Ltd PASSD Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division PCM Professional Clearing Member PCMS Payment Complaint Management System PCRCL Pakistan Corporate Restructuring Company Limited PF Proliferation Financing PFL Floating rate PIBS PFM Public Finance Management PHEIC Public Health Emergency of International Concern PIBs Pakistan Investment Bonds PITE Provincial Institutes of Teacher Education PMDC Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation 184
562. PMEX PMKJ-YES PMN PNSC POC PODB POs POS PPCBL PPIB PPP PPR PR PSDP PSEs PSIC PSLM PSX PTL QEC QIM RAMS RAS RBOD RBS RD RDA REER REITs RFCC RFCD RFI RHCs RLNG RSPs RYE SBP SBTS SDGs SECP SKD SMEDA SNC SOP SOPs SPI SRCLs SSM SSP STPs STSC Pakistan Mercantile Exchange Limited Prime Minister ’s Kamyab Jawan Youth Entrepreneurships Scheme Pakistan Microfinance Network Pakistan National Shipping Corporation Pakistan Origin Card Pakistan Oilseed Development Board Partner Organizations Point of Sales Punjab Provincial Cooperative Bank Limited Private Power and Infrastructure Board Public-Private Partnership Programme for Poverty Reduction Pakistan Railways Public Sector Development program Public Sector Enterprises Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Pakistan Stock Exchange Panther Tyres Limited Quality Enhancement Cell Quantum Index of Manufacturing Risk based Audit Management System Regulatory Approval System Right Bank Outfall Drain Risk Based Supervision Regulatory Duty Roshan Digital Accounts Real Effective Exchange Rate Real Estate Investment Trusts Refinance Facility for Combating COVID-19 Resident Foreign Currency Deposits Rapid Financing Instrument Rural Health Clinics Re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas Rural Support Programmes Revitalizing Youth Enterprise State Bank of Pakistan Safe Blood Transfusion Services Sustainable Development Goals Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan Semi Knocked Down Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority Single National Curriculum Sulphate of Potash Standard Operating Procedures Sensitive Price Indicator Schools for Rehabilitation of Child Labour Small Scale Manufacturing Single Super Phosphate Software Technology Parks Short-Term Savings Certificates 185
563. SWIT TBTTP TCO TDAP TERF THQs TOMCL TPLT TPSP TSA TVET TY UAN UIN UNDP UNFCCC UNHCR US USF USSD VPS WADR WALR WASH WDI WeBOC WECs WHO WPI WWF YoY ZTBL Saylani Welfare International Trust Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme Textiles Commissioner ’s Organization Trade Development Authority of Pakistan Temporary Economic Refinance Facility Tehsil Headquarters The Organic Meat Company TPL Trakker Third Party Service Provider Treasury Single Account Technical & Vocational Education and Training Tax year Universal Account Number Unique Identification Number United Nations Development Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nation High Commission for Refugees United States Universal Service Fund Unstructured Supplementary Service Data Voluntary Pension System Weighted Average Deposit Rate Weighted Average Lending Rate Water, Sanitation and Hygiene World Development Indicators Web Based One Customs Women Empowerment Centres World Health Organization Wholesale Price Index Workers Welfare Fund Year on Year Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited 186
564. Your Support for Improvement Economic Adviser ’s Wing would appreciate your comments on our efforts made in presenting Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21. Your feedback will be helpful to further improve the quality of this publication. Kindly forward your comments and suggestions to Economic Adviser’s Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad. 1. The presentation and order of the chapters is Good/Satisfactory/ Needs Improvement 2. Descriptive part contains useful information on how Pakistan’s Economy prevailed during the financial year. Your rating: 0% --------100% Your rating: 0% --------100% 3. Data provided in the Survey found useful. 4. Suitable stock of information is given on all the sectors of Pakistan’s Economy. Your rating: 0% --------100% 5. Economic Survey is a valuable source of information on Pakistan’s Economy. Your rating: 0% --------100% 6. The overall quality of the Economic Survey is: Good/Satisfactory/ Needs Improvement 7. Kindly give suggestions for improvement of Pakistan Economic Survey. PCPPI –641(20) Fin.Div.—01-06-2021—2900 188
565.