Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 28 February

Transcription

1. Feb . 28, 2018 KCCI - eBulletin Census verification process suspended The govt. has suspended the process of independently verifying the results of the 6th housing and population census after differences emerged between the Council of Common Interests and the Senate over the modalities of the exercise. The govt. had decided to verify 5% results of the census after Sindh claimed that its population had been understated by at least 10 Mn people. Tribune. EUR, 27-Feb-18, 136.0 125 115 105 95 Feb-17 USD, 27-Feb-18, 110.6 May-17 GBP USD Aug-17 EUR Nov-17 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com Quote of the Day "The only way in which a durable peace can be created is by world-wide restoration of economic activity and international trade." James Forrestal Chart of the Day 28.5 24 3.1 5.6 5.5 10.0 10.2 4.7 6 8.4 12 6.7 8.9 18 2.9 38.7 36.2 37.3 43.7 41.8 30 23.2 36 32.4 42 45.0 Pak Mauritius Trade 48 3.6 PSX invites applications for licences Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has invited applications for issuance of 15 new Trading Right Entitlement (TRE) certificates. Only a private company, excluding single member company or a public company, would be eligible to obtain the license as a securities broker. The News. 135 38.2 Regulator, PSX tussle over board of directors The SECP and the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) are at loggerheads on the issue of bourse‘s board of directors’ election. On 29th Dec’17, the regulator had issued directive to the PSX to hold elections for the new board by today (28th Feb’18). But stiff resistance by the broker directors, together with some independent directors, has thrown the process in disarray. A director is of the view that the three-year term of the present board would end in Feb’19, after which fresh elections would be due. Dawn. 145 2.6 Shelving of IP gas project: Iran threatens to take Pakistan to The Hague In a new development, Iran has threatened to move the arbitration court in Hague against Pakistan for unilaterally shelving the IP gas line project, and invoke the penalty clause of the Gas Sales Purchase Agreement (GSPA). Tehran has asked for payment of over $ 1.2Bn, as under the penalty clause, Pakistan is bound to pay penalty of $1 Mn per day if it fails to have intake of gas from Iran under the IP project. The News. GBP, 27-Feb-18, 154.2 155 39.5 FATF issue impedes refund payments: Afzal Minister of State for Finance Rana Muhammad Afzal Khan has assured to release major chunk of approximately PKR 160Bn refund claims of exporters very soon to support the value-added sector. He said that due to the ongoing FATF issue, govt. could not pay \ attention to the issue of refunds as promised. However, serious efforts are underway to pay all refund pay orders (RPOs) in one go, Rana informed a meeting of exporters of value-added apparel sector. BR. Major Currencies 3.0 Sindh Assembly opposes proposed PSM, PIA privatization The Sindh Assembly has adopted a resolution against the privatization and leasing of Pakistan Steel Mills and Pakistan International Airlines. The majority of the house voted in favour of the resolution to demand the federal govt. to stop privatization or leasing of the state-run steel mill while asking the federal govt. to stay away from selling all state-run institutions and assets. BR. 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% NM** -1.73% -1.18% -0.79% -1.32% 0.00% 0.00% WoW -0.74% YoY 3.55% 11.11% 18.92% -24.18% -48.11% -2.94% 165 2.3 Amnesty scheme: expats to be charged 2, 4% tax The federal govt. is likely to announce Declaration of Overseas Assets Amnesty Scheme after the Senate elections, by 15th Mar’18. Under the scheme, resident and non-resident Pakistanis will bring their assets to Pakistan after declaring their bank accounts. They will pay only 2% tax to bring their assets to Pakistan and 4% tax in case they do not bring their assets to Pakistan. The govt. has reportedly agreed to the scheme on the demand of traders and chambers of commerce. The News. Change Daily 110.40 112.15 42,995 -1.02 62.88 1,319.1 48,557 16.40 7,395 6.45 $ Bn 18.83 16-Feb FY18 Remittances Jul-Jan 18 $ Bn 11.38 Exports* Jul-Jan 18 $ Bn 12.97 Imports* Jul-Jan 18 $ Bn 34.51 Trade Balance* Jul-Jan 18 $ Bn -21.55 Current Account Jul-Jan 18 $ Mn -9,156 Foreign Direct Inv. $ Bn 1.49 Jul-Jan 18 LSM Growth* Jul-Dec 17 % 5.55 % 3.85 Avg. CPI Jul-Jan 18 Discount Rate % 6.00 Jan-18 WoW= Sources: KCCI Research, PMEXweek , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful on week; 40.1 Budget deficit clocks in at 3.2% of GDP in July-Feb Budget deficit clocked in at 3.2% of GDP between 1st Jul’17 and 15th Feb’18, below the deficit of 3.9% reported in 8MFY17, yet well above 2.2% recorded in 1HFY18. The country posted a budget deficit of PKR 1,11Tn in the period but, it is yet to be seen how economic managers would avoid temptation to plunge into spending spree just ahead of the term end within the next three months. It is apprehended that the deficit might reach 6% of GDP by the end of FY18. The News. Value PKR PKR Pts. $ Mn $/bbl $/oz PKR $/oz PKR % Forex Reserves 31.9 Money held abroad: SBP too expresses its inability The SBP has said that neither does it have any legal channels for tracing or retrieving money held by Pakistani citizens abroad nor does it have power or jurisdiction to ask for it. According to a SBP report submitted to the Supreme Court of Pakistan in a suo motu case regarding maintaining foreign accounts by Pakistani citizens without disclosure the same and paying taxes in Pakistan, the SBP has no agreement/treaty/protocol with any of the jurisdictions mentioned in the order of the Court for sharing of account related information and retrieval of foreign assets. BR. Unit 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb 27-Feb Crude (AP'18) Gold (MA'18) Gold (10g) Local Silver (MA'18) Cotton(KHI)-40 kg Kibor-6M 2.0 Steep rise likely in diesel, petrol prices The prices of diesel (HSD) and petrol for Mar’18 are likely to increase by almost PKR 7 and PKR 4 per litre. Based on existing tax rates and import prices reported by PSO, Ogra has also recommended PKR 6.28 and PKR per litre increase in the prices of kerosene and LDO respectively. However, oil companies would be at will to set the price of HSD after deciding on the quantum of margins for themselves and the dealers, in view of a recent govt. decision to deregulate diesel rates. Dawn. Date / Period USD-Interbank USD-Open MKT KSE-100 index FIPI 40.7 Pakistan top choice for Saudi investment Saudi Deputy Trade Minister Abdulrahman Alharbi has acknowledged Pakistan as one of the top destinations for making investments. During the first meeting of Pak-Saudi Joint Working Group on Trade and Investment in Riyadh, the Saudi side appreciated the attractiveness of Pakistan as a preferred destination of investment in view of its macroeconomic indicators, growth projects, strategic location and overall investment regime. The kingdom also expressed its interest in investing in Pakistan in many sectors including petrochemicals, dairy, livestock, mining etc. It was agreed that Saudi Arabia will send a technical team to Pakistan to review the sector specific opportunities and projects. The two countries also agreed to activate Pak-Saudi Joint Business Council within two months. Dawn. List of Indicators 3.4 Jetro rates Pakistan as top destination for Japanese investors Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), in its survey of Japanese companies working in Asia, has rated Pakistan as the top destination for Japanese investors. This was informed by President of JETRO during a meeting with Chairman Board of Investment Naeem Zamindar, who called on him in Tokyo. Pakistan has been rated at the top in Asia by Japanese companies for expected profits in 2018, plans for expansion of operations and hiring of local labour force. These results indicate high confidence of Japanese companies in future economic prospects of Pakistan and quality of labour force. Nation. Economic Indicators 0 Trade Balance ($ Mn) Pak. Exports (Mn $) Pak. Imports (Mn $) Source: KCCI Research, SBP Disclaimer CPEC’s transparency: NHA admits irregularities in award of $2.9b contract to Chinese firm This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained The National Highway Authority (NHA) Chairman has confessed that there have been irregularities in the award of a $ 2.9Bn herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to contract to a Chinese firm for construction of a motorway under CPEC. Concessions worth roughly $ 200Mn given to the China be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. State Construction Engineering Company (CSCEC) were not part of the original bidding documents Pakistan had floated for the icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' construction of the 392km long Multan-Sukkur section. The chairman also confessed that the contract had been awarded to the understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or company on an “alternate bid”, which the company had submitted after quoting its original bid. Tribune. accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk