Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 22 December

Transcription

1. Dec . 22, 2017 KCCI - eBulletin FBR likely to miss collection target for second quarter FBR is likely to miss its 2QFY18 target as the budgeted tax collection was fixed at PKR 1.57Tn with 20% growth while tax machinery still has to collect around PKR 45Bn per day in next six days. The collection target for Dec.’17 is fixed at PKR 385Bn. Moreover, FBR had faced around PKR 70Bn revenue shortfall in Nov.’17, which now has extended to over PKR 300Bn. Furthermore, FBR was collecting PKR 7Bn daily from import but now no revenue has been reported since currency devaluation, due to annulment of large number of import orders. BR. FO brings role of PKR under CPEC spotlight Pakistan’s Foreign Office has stated that Pakistan and China will actively use bilateral currencies [PKR and RMB] for the settlement of bilateral trade and investment under CPEC. The two countries aim to promote monetary cooperation between the central banks, implement existing bilateral currency swap arrangements, research to expand the volume of currency swap and explore to enrich its use and scope, and strengthen the cooperation (RMB and PKR) to reduce demand for financial regulatory agencies of the two countries. BR. 5MFY18: $ 1.09Bn commercial loans procured from foreign banks Economic Affairs Division (EAD) has revealed that country procured $ 1.09Bn commercial loans from foreign banks in 5MFY18 with total external assistance amounting to $ 2.88Bn, surpassing the budgeted estimates of $ 1Bn for the entire year. The govt. has so far signed short-term commercial loan agreements of $ 1.42Bn in the FY18 with different foreign banks of which $ 1.09Bn have materialized. Of this amount, $ 267Mn have been procured from Citibank. BR. Govt plans to raise another $ 1.5Bn through international bonds The Government has planned to launch another international bond to raise $ 1 to $ 1.5Bn till the end of the FY18, indicating its commitment not to knock at the IMF’s door to address anemic external account position. Late last month, Pakistan raised US dollar denominated sukuk and Eurobond worth $ 2.5Bn in New York against the total offered amounts from investors by $ 8Bn in order to stop depletion of foreign currency reserves. The News. Refineries weigh option of furnace oil export Petroleum refineries, faced with swelling stocks, have kick-started talks with potential international buyers for the export of surplus furnace oil after negotiations with the government over restarting oil-based power plants could not break the deadlock. Furnace oil exports will allow the refineries to resume production and put a cap on mounting losses suffered due to plant closure and heavy demurrages on delay in lifting the imported crude from ships. Refineries are trapped in an operational crisis because of government’s poor planning. The refineries, which meet 30% of the country’s needs, are feeling suffocated following excessive imports of furnace oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to run power plants. Tribune. CCI meeting: Gas tariff may go up to cover cost of new projects All four provinces of Pakistan have refused to bear the cost of new gas supply projects planned near the gas fields in an attempt to avert the threat of protest by local residents. Consequently, the central and provincial governments have agreed to pass billions of rupees worth of cost on to gas consumers with an upward revision in the tariff. The issue was taken up by the Council of Common Interests (CCI) in a meeting last month. The Punjab government backed the proposal that the consumer cost criteria should be revised before discussing cost-sharing with the provinces in order to collect the entire cost from the consumers. Tribune. CCI rules against creation of fiscal coordination committee On Punjab’s opposition, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) has turned down a proposal for the creation of a Fiscal Coordination Committee (FCC) to restrain the center and provinces from exceeding expenditure targets, and hence limit the country’s fiscal deficit within budgetary announcements. The Ministry of Finance had proposed the formation of FCC to strengthen fiscal coordination between federal and provincial governments to achieve consolidated fiscal targets and th th \ macroeconomic stability as desired by IMF in the aftermath of fiscal devolution under 7 NFC and 18 Constitutional Amendment. Dawn. Over 7% rise in textile exports during ongoing FY18 Exports of textile and clothes recorded a growth of over 7% during 5MFY18 due to a cash subsidy offered to the exporters under the PM’s incentives package and the payment of sales tax refunds. The country exported textile and clothes of $ 5.5Bn as against $ 5.1Bn in 5MFY17 where main growth driver is the value-added textile sector. Exports of readymade garments went up by 14.69%, knitwear’s export increased by 12.07% while exports of bed wear went up by 6.65%. The Nation. Divestment of govt. shares in MPCL: EoIs invited for FAC appointment Privatization Commission has invited Expression of Interests (EoIs) for appointment of Financial Advisory Consortium (FAC) for divestment of Pakistan govt. shares held in Mari Petroleum Company Ltd. The interested parties are requested to submit their technical and financial proposals till Jan. 2, 2018. In response, as of now, only Credit Suisse-led consortium submitted technical and financial bids. The govt. has decided to divest up to 18.39% of its shareholding in the MPCL. BR. Aviation policy being revisited, says adviser PM’s adviser on aviation Sardar Mehtab Abbasi has said that it has been decided in principle to review the aviation policy of the country. The policy is being revisited to ensure that air travelers have better and improved facilities and all airlines have a level playing field and equal opportunities. Dawn. Chinese automaker to launch 800cc car next year A leading Chinese bike maker, United Auto Industries is gearing up to launch an 800cc car next year. Its launch will be followed by the end of the 30-year journey of iconic 800cc Suzuki Mehran in 2019. United Auto Industries is venturing into car and pickup manufacturing. The local assembly of these vehicles will begin in 1HCY18. Dawn. Economic Indicators List of Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec 21-Dec PKR PKR Pts. $ Mn $/bbl $/oz PKR $/oz PKR % 110.50 110.55 38,716 -3.23 58.27 1,269.9 46,757 16.12 7,502 6.21% -0.01% 0.27% 1.33% NM** 0.33% 0.24% 0.09% -0.22% 0.00% 0.00% WoW -1.46% YoY 1.29% 10.49% 21.12% -28.56% -90.74% 57.12% USD-Interbank USD-Open MKT KSE-100 index FIPI Crude (FE'18) Gold (JA'18) Gold (10g) Local Silver (JA'18) Cotton(KHI)-40 kg Kibor-6M Forex Reserves $ Bn 20.38 15-Dec FY18 Jul-Nov 17 Remittances $ Bn 8.02 Jul-Nov 17 Exports* $ Bn 9.03 Jul-Nov 17 Imports* $ Bn 24.06 Jul-Nov 17 Trade Balance* $ Bn -15.03 Jul-Nov 17 Current Account $ Mn -6,430 Foreign Direct Inv. $ Bn 1.15 Jul-Nov 17 Jul-Sep 17 LSM Growth* % 8.36 % 3.59 Jul-Nov 17 Avg. CPI Discount Rate % 5.75 Sep-17 WoW= week Sources: KCCI Research, PMEX , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful on week; Major Currencies 155 GBP, 21-Dec-17, 147.7 145 135 EUR, 21-Dec-17, 131.2 125 115 105 USD, 21-Dec-17, 110.5 95 Dec-16 USD Mar-17 GBP EUR Jun-17 Sep-17 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com Quote of the Day "We build statues out of snow, and weep to see them melt." Walter Scott Chart of the Day BREAK-UP OF PAKISTAN'S EXTERNAL DEBT (1QFY18) Debt Liabilities to direct investors 4% Private Sector 8% Public External Debt 79% Banks 6% Public Sector Enterprises 3% Source: KCCI Research, SBP Disclaimer This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from Reserves fall $ 303Mn sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves amounted to $ 20.38Bn on 15th Dec’17, down $ 303.3Mn or 1.46% from verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' a week ago. Reserves of the SBP decreased by $ 334Mn to $ 14.33Bn. Reserves held by commercial banks amounted to understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or over $ 6Bn, up $30.8Mn or 0.51% from the preceding week. Dawn. accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk