Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 11 December

Transcription

1. Dec . 10 - 11, 2017 KCCI - eBulletin PKR devaluation to exacerbate external debt burden The depreciation of Pakistani rupee will lead to a massive surge in Pakistan's external debt and one rupee increase in exchange rate will add approximately some PKR 85Bn to the foreign debt and liabilities quantum in term of Pak Rupee. Economists are estimating that with the adjustment in exchange rate during ongoing FY18, the country's external debt and liabilities burden, in term of rupee, will increase by over PKR 170Bn. SBP is of the view that this market-driven adjustment in the exchange rate will contain the imbalance in the external account and sustain higher growth trajectory. BR – Mon. CPEC business opportunities moot to be held on Dec. 12, 2017 CPEC Business Opportunities Conference will be organized by the Sindh Board of Investment and Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company on Dec. 12, 2017 in Karachi which will highlight investment opportunities for Chinese companies in Pakistan, as well as the govt.'s role in facilitating these projects. The event is being organized in association with the Planning Ministry. The event will be attended by a delegation of over 80 representatives from various Chinese companies. BR – Sun. Industry raises red flag over imminent oil crisis The oil industry has raised the red flag over imminent closure of local refineries and related inability of the oil companies to provide enough fuels for smooth operations of aviation and security aircraft. In an “SOS-Rush to Desk” to the Petroleum Division, the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) has said that refineries have been forced to continuously scale down production, now reaching a point of a complete shutdown and impacting jet fuels. The oil industry has been struggling for a six weeks to cope with setback caused by closure of oil-based power plants in Oct’17. Dawn-Mon. Govt looks to squeeze oil and gas sector to meet revenue target The Finance Division has tightened its noose around the Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division) to collect PKR 392Bn from the oil and gas sector to meet the budget target for FY18. Following pressure, the Petroleum Division was forced to impose a petroleum levy not only on locally produced LPG but on imported LPG as well in a bid to collect PKR in the remaining period of the ongoing financial year. Tribune-Sun. Withdrawal of regulatory duty on skimmed milk urged KCCI has demanded the Customs authorities to withdraw regulatory duty on skimmed milk, as it is essential and non-luxury item and used as a raw material for producing several food products. The KCCI, in a letter sent to Zahid Khokhar, Member Customs, also urged to withdraw the regulatory duty on import of many household items, especially fat-filled milk powder. The government through a SRO dated 16th Oct’17 imposed regulatory duty on around 731 items in order to restrict imports of unnecessary and luxury items to reduce the quantum of import bill. The News-Sun. IPPs demand settlement of outstanding payments The Independent Power Producers Advisory Council (IPPAC) has urged the prime minister to resolve serious financial crisis the independent power producers are facing on account of large overdue receivables from National Transmission and Despatch Company/Central Power Purchase Agency. IPPAC, in a letter, has claimed that PKR 205Bn (as of 30th Nov’17) are still pending and that for the last several months, IPPs have been requesting the Ministry of Energy on various forums for amicable resolution of overdue balance. Dawn-Sun. Sindh says it has land available for German companies Showing interest in meeting one of the biggest demands of investors, the Sindh government has agreed to provide land for an exclusive industrial zone for German companies. We have land available and we are ready to discuss it further with relevant people, said Sindh CM Murad Ali Shah while speaking at a meeting. Shah said that the provincial government is trying to develop coal and all other resources to produce energy; however, said Germany and Pakistan can further cooperate in producing renewable energy, which is also necessary along with the traditional fossil fuels. Tribune-Sun. \ IMF notes impressive growth A monitoring mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed talks with economic managers of Pakistan on the country’s performance post-IMF programme. The IMF mission appreciated Pakistan’s efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability and noted impressive economic growth in Pakistan despite multiple challenges. Dawn-Sun. Cement plants utilize 95% capacity in 5MFY18 The capacity utilization of cement plants in the country has reached a record level of 94.65% during 5MFY18 while its dispatches have increased by around 14% during the same period. According to the latest data of Nov.’17, the increase recorded in cement domestic consumption was 9.89%, with overall growth of the sector standing at 5.16%. In Nov.’17, the mills situated in northern part of the country dispatched 2.97Mn tons of cement locally, which is 10.2% higher than 2.69Mn tons local dispatches in Non.’16. The Nation – Mon. PKR 298.25Bn released under PSDP The govt. has released PKR 298.25Bn (29.8%) including PKR 62.1Bn foreign aid for different development projects under PSDP for ongoing FY18 against total budgeted allocation of PKR 1Tn. The govt. has released PKR 65.3Bn including PKR 2.3Bn foreign aid for development projects of various federal ministries against total budgeted allocation of PKR 318.44 Bn. An amount of PKR 10.41Bn has been released for Water Sector and PKR 9.38Bn for development projects of Pakistan Railways Division. BR – Sun. Economic Indicators List of Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily USD-Interbank 8-Dec PKR 107.00 1.38% USD-Open MKT 8-Dec PKR 107.65 0.23% KSE-100 index FIPI Pts. $ Mn 39,080 -1.74 0.76% NM** Crude (FE'18) 8-Dec 8-Dec 8-Dec $/bbl 57.42 2.65% Gold (JA'18) 8-Dec $/oz 1,247.8 -1.34% Gold (10g) Local 8-Dec PKR 45,942 0.37% Silver (JA'18) 8-Dec $/oz 15.77 -0.99% Cotton(KHI)-40 kg 8-Dec PKR 7,272 2.81% Kibor-6M 8-Dec % 6.20% 0.00% 30-Nov FY18 $ Bn 18.74 WoW -4.85% Remittances Jul-Oct 17 $ Bn 6.44 2.27% Exports* Jul-Oct 17 $ Bn 7.06 10.04% Imports* Jul-Oct 17 $ Bn 19.19 22.55% Trade Balance* Jul-Oct 17 $ Bn -12.13 -31.24% Forex Reserves YoY Jul-Oct 17 $ Mn -5,013 $ Bn 0.94 Jul-Oct 17 Jul-Sep 17 LSM Growth* % 8.36 % 3.59 Jul-Nov 17 Avg. CPI Discount Rate % 5.75 Sep-17 WoW= Sources: KCCI Research, PMEXweek , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful on week; Major Currencies 155 GBP, 10-Dec-17, 141.7 145 135 125 EUR, 10-Dec-17, 124.6 115 105 95 Dec-16 USD Mar-17 GBP EUR USD, 10-Dec-17, 105.8 Jun-17 Sep-17 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com Quote of the Day "Live and think like a child. Or have that childlike curiosity and wonder. That’s probably the most important trait you can have, especially as an entrepreneur." Brian Chesky Chart of the Day Pakistan's Budget Financing Resources (1QFY12 - 1QFY18) 432.876 450 410 330 290 Asia and Pacific region has lowest tax ratios Asia and Pacific region as a whole has one of the world’s lowest tax-to-GDP ratios compared with the developing country average of 20.2% and the developed country average of 25.1%. If the Central Asia and the Pacific sub-regions are excluded, the average tax-to-GDP ratio in developing countries in the region would be even lower, at 14.2%. Recent estimates suggest that many developing countries in Asia-Pacific region only achieve less than or around 50% of their maximum tax potential, says the study, titled “Taxing for shared prosperity” prepared jointly by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and international NGO, Oxfam. Dawn-Sun. 369.065 350.275 370 261.573 285.383 314.121 272.868 250 210 170 130 55.288 90 Wheat stock to be sold at subsidized rates Federal govt. has decided to sell 0.5Mn tons of carryover wheat stock of PASSCO at subsidized rates to create physical and fiscal space for procurement of new crop in April/May 2018. PASSCO would be left with surplus wheat stock of about 1.04Mn metric tons, thus would be imperative to offload 0.50 MMT surplus stocks to create physical and fiscal space for procurement of new crop in April/May 2018.The rebate involved in export of 0.5Mn metric tons of wheat would be PKR 11.64Bn which is much higher as compared to rebate required for disposal through local sale i.e. PKR 3.62Bn. BR – Mon. -121.91% 74.44% Current Account Foreign Direct Inv. 50 10 -30 -4.367 1QFY12 -1.554 1QFY13 68.835 7.946 -13.459 -27.213 1QFY14 1QFY15 External Financing (PKR Bn) 1QFY16 1QFY17 1QFY18 Domestic Financing (PKR Bn) Source: KCCI Research, MoF Disclaimer This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk