Nigeria: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Survey Report - December 2020

Transcription

1. Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers ’ Index (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department December 2020
2. 1 1 .0 Introduction The December 2020 PMI survey was conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria during the period December 7-11, 2020. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in all 36 states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the information they have provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. 2.0 Manufacturing December 2020 PMI In December 2020, suppliers’ delivery time was faster, new orders and production level increased while employment level and raw materials inventories contracted. The Manufacturing PMI in the month of December stood at 49.6 index points, indicating a contraction from the expansionary level recorded in the month of November 2020 (Fig. 2 and Table 1). Of the 14 surveyed subsectors, 4 subsectors reported expansion (above 50% threshold) in the review month in the following order: Transportation equipment, Nonmetallic mineral products, Paper products and Food, beverage & tobacco products. Textile, apparel, leather & footwear subsector remained stationary while the remaining 9 subsectors reported contractions in the following order: Primary metal, Petroleum & coal products; Cement, Electrical equipment, Fabricated metal products, Printing & related support activities, Plastics & rubber products; Chemical & pharmaceutical products and Furniture & related products.
3. 2 .1 Production Level The December 2020 production level index for the manufacturing sector stood at 51.6 points, indicating expansion for two consecutive months. Of the 14 subsectors surveyed, 6 subsectors recorded increased production level, 4 subsectors reported stationary level of production, while 4 subsectors recorded declines in production in December 2020 (Fig. 3 and Table 2). 2.2 New Orders The new orders expanded for the third consecutive months in the month of December. The index stood at 50.2 points in December 2020. Five subsectors reported expansion in new orders, 2 subsectors remained stationary while the remaining 7 recorded contraction in the review month (Fig. 4 and Table 3). 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time The manufacturing supplier delivery time index stood at 51.2 points in December 2020, this indicates that supplier delivery time was faster for the eighth consecutive months. Eight of the 14 subsectors recorded improved suppliers’ delivery time, 3 subsectors remained stationary, while 3 subsectors recorded slower delivery time (Fig. 5 and Table 4).
4. 3 2 .4 Employment Level The employment level index for December 2020 stood at 46.3 points, indicating contraction in employment level for the ninth consecutive months. Of the 14 subsectors, only transportation equipment subsector recorded growth in employment level. Four subsectors recorded stationary employment level while the remaining nine subsectors recorded lower employment level in the review month (Fig. 6 and Table 5). 2.5 Raw material Inventories The manufacturing sector inventories index contracted for the ninth consecutive months in December 2020. At 46.9 points, the index declined in the review month. Four of the 14 subsectors recorded growth in inventories, 2 subsectors remained stationary while the remaining 8 subsectors recorded lower raw material inventories in the review month (Fig. 7 and Table 6). 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 45.7 points in December 2020, indicating contraction in Non-manufacturing PMI for the ninth consecutive months. Of the 17 surveyed sub-sectors, 5 subsectors reported growth in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Water supply, sewage & waste management; Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; Educational services and Professional, scientific & technical services. Twelve subsectors reported declines in the following order: Management of companies ; Utilities; Transportation & warehousing; Real estate rental & leasing; Construction; Finance & insurance; Agriculture; Wholesale/Retail trade; Information & communication; Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles…; Health care & social assistance and Accommodation & food services (Fig. 9 and Table 7).
5. 3 .1 Business Activity At 46.9 points, the business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector contracted from the expansionary level recorded in the month of November 2020. Six out of the 17 subsectors reported expansion in business activities (above 50% threshold). Information & communication subsector reported stationary level of business activities while the remaining 10 subsectors recorded contraction in business activity in the review month (Fig. 10 Table 8). 3.2 New Orders At 45.1 points, new orders index declined for the ninth consecutive months in December 2020. Four of the 17 subsectors reported growth in new order (above 50% threshold), 2 subsectors reported stationary levels, while the remaining 11 subsectors recorded decline in new orders in the review month (Fig. 11 Table 9). 3.3 Employment Level The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector in the month of December 2020 stood at 45.1 points, indicating contraction in employment level for the ninth consecutive months. Only Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply subsector reported growth in employment level (above 50%
6. 5 threshold ), 2 subsectors reported stationary level, while the remaining 14 subsectors recorded decline in new orders in the review month (Fig. 12 Table 10). 3.4 Non-manufacturing Inventory At 45.7 points, non-manufacturing inventory index declined for the ninth consecutive months. This indicates reduced inventories in the review period. Two subsectors reported growth in inventory, while 4 subsectors recorded stationary level and the remaining 11 subsectors recorded decline in inventories in the review period (Fig. 13, Table 11).
7. APPENDICES Table 1 : Details of Overall Manufacturing PMI Nov 2020 Index* 50.2 51.7 50.5 52.2 47.3 48.5 35.4 60.1 71.7 51.7 43.3 46.6 Dec 2020 Index* 49.6 51.6 50.2 51.2 46.3 46.9 33.1 61.4 73.0 49.0 41.0 42.7 Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 1.4 1.3 -2.7 -2.2 -3.9 Rate of Change From Expansion Slower Slower Slower Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster From Expansion Faster Faster Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities 52.6 45.1 40.5 49.9 50.1 55.8 59.4 49.6 41.3 50.3 48.7 50.1 43.8 49.7 44.5 45.7 51.3 49.8 54.8 53.3 38.8 48.6 35.9 48.4 Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining -8.8 4.6 4.0 -4.1 1.3 -6.0 -4.6 3.7 -2.5 -1.7 -12.8 -1.6 From Expansion Slower Slower Faster Faster From Expansion Slower From Contraction Faster From Expansion Faster From Expansion 3 2 2 8 2 1 2 1 6 1 17 1 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 50.6 64.2 50.0 72.5 Stationary Growing -0.6 8.3 From Expansion Faster 1 7 Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Outstanding Business/Backlog of Work Stock of Finished Goods Direction Difference Trend** (Months) 1 2 3 8 9 9 69 59 77 1 36 8 Manufacturing Sub-Sectors "\1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage of high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. " Table 2: Details of Production PMI Index PRODUCTION PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Nov 2020 Index 51.7 62.5 44.6 40.0 55.8 49.5 58.7 69.2 57.1 50.0 44.4 50.0 54.3 50.0 66.7 Dec 2020 Index 51.6 38.9 55.1 40.0 45.2 54.2 50.0 54.2 66.7 50.0 50.0 28.6 52.1 50.0 75.0 Direction Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Stationary Growing Growing Stationary Stationary Declining Growing Stationary Growing Difference -0.1 -23.6 10.5 0.0 -10.6 4.7 -8.7 -15.1 9.5 0.0 5.6 -21.4 -2.3 0.0 8.3 Rate of Change Slower From Expansion From Contraction Flat From Expansion From Contraction From Expansion Slower Faster Flat From Contraction From Stationary Slower Flat Faster Trend (Months) 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 4 2 1 1 3 2 2
8. 7 Table 3 : Details of New Orders PMI Nov 2020 Index 50.5 50.0 38.2 30.0 44.2 52.4 58.7 61.5 64.3 50.0 50.0 43.8 54.5 52.3 83.3 Index NEW ORDERS PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Dec 2020 Index 50.2 38.9 47.4 40.0 40.3 55.0 54.0 58.3 61.1 25.0 50.0 21.4 45.8 50.0 75.0 Direction Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Stationary Declining Declining Stationary Growing Difference -0.3 -11.1 9.3 10.0 -3.9 2.6 -4.7 -3.2 -3.2 -25.0 0.0 -22.3 -8.7 -2.3 -8.3 Rate of Change Slower From Stationary Slower Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower Slower From Stationary Flat Faster From Expansion From Expansion Slower Trend (Months) 3 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 5 1 2 7 1 1 2 Table 4: Details of Suppliers’ Delivery PMI Index SUPPLIER TIME PMI AppliancesDELIVERY & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Nov 2020 Index 52.2 27.8 60.5 50.0 64.0 52.9 47.8 50.0 35.7 25.0 44.4 50.0 45.7 63.6 16.7 Dec 2020 Index 51.2 50.0 54.1 70.0 62.1 45.9 48.1 50.0 33.3 75.0 57.9 58.3 50.0 56.3 75.0 Direction Growing Declining Stationary Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Stationary Declining Growing Growing Growing Stationary Growing Growing Rate Trend Difference of (Months) Change -1.0 Slower 89 0.0 Flat 22.2 From Contraction 1 -6.5 Slower 2 20.0 From Stationary 1 -1.9 Slower 2 -7.0 From Expansion 1 0.3 Slower 2 0.0 Flat 4 -2.4 Faster 2 50.0 From Contraction 1 13.5 From Contraction 1 8.3 From Stationary 1 4.3 From Contraction 1 -7.4 Slower 2 58.3 From Contraction 1
9. Table 5 : Details of Employment Level PMI Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Nov 2020 Index 47.3 55.6 43.4 40.0 46.2 46.6 52.2 46.2 35.7 25.0 63.9 56.3 41.3 45.5 66.7 Dec 2020 Index 46.3 43.8 44.9 40.0 43.5 48.2 50.0 50.0 38.9 0.0 39.5 50.0 45.8 50.0 75.0 Rate Trend Direction Difference of (Months) Change Declining -1.0 Faster 9 Declining -11.8 From Expansion 1 Declining 1.5 Slower 9 Declining 0.0 Flat 3 Declining -2.6 Faster 3 Declining 1.6 Slower 8 Stationary -2.2 From Expansion 1 Stationary 3.8 From Contraction 1 Declining 3.2 Slower 2 Declining -25.0 Faster 2 Declining -24.4 From Expansion 1 Stationary -6.3 From Expansion 1 Declining 4.5 Slower 2 Stationary 4.5 From Contraction 1 Growing 8.3 Faster 2 Table 6: Details of Raw Materials Inventory PMI Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORY PMI Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Nov 2020 Index 48.5 66.7 47.4 60.0 38.5 47.1 58.7 69.2 35.7 50.0 47.2 42.9 50.0 38.1 66.7 Dec 2020 Index 46.9 61.1 46.2 40.0 43.3 47.7 38.5 62.5 55.6 75.0 44.7 35.7 50.0 40.6 50.0 Direction Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Stationary Declining Stationary Rate Trend Difference of (Months) Change -1.6 Faster 9 -5.6 Slower 3 -1.2 Faster 4 -20.0 From Expansion 1 4.9 Slower 2 0.6 Slower 8 -20.2 From Expansion 1 -6.7 Slower 2 19.8 From Contraction 1 25.0 From Stationary 1 -2.5 Faster 3 -7.1 Faster 3 0.0 Flat 2 2.5 Slower 9 -16.7 From Expansion 1
10. 9 Table 7 : Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Employment Level Inventories Average price of Inputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Inventory (sentiments) Nov 2020 Index 47.6 50.5 46.9 46.7 46.1 54.5 43.2 34.6 37.1 41.7 Dec 2020 Index 45.7 46.9 45.1 45.1 45.7 54.7 43.4 34.6 34.2 41.1 Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining -1.9 -3.6 -1.8 -1.6 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 -2.9 -0.5 Rate of Change Faster From Expansion Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Faster Faster Faster 46.0 51.4 31.9 41.0 48.1 49.9 46.8 55.6 46.8 50.0 38.7 43.8 45.5 42.3 58.1 43.8 44.3 47.9 48.5 42.9 58.3 41.5 50.5 52.8 41.8 47.9 44.7 33.9 50.7 59.4 40.0 46.1 38.9 37.5 54.5 43.8 Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining 2.4 -8.5 26.4 0.6 2.5 3.0 -4.9 -7.8 -2.1 -16.1 12.0 15.6 -5.5 3.8 -19.2 -6.3 10.2 -4.1 Slower From Expansion From Contraction Slower From Contraction From Contraction Faster From Expansion Faster From Stationary From Contraction Faster Slower From Expansion Faster From Contraction Faster Direction Difference Trend (Months) 9 1 9 9 9 6 77 77 77 77 Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles… Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade 9 1 1 9 1 1 2 1 8 1 1 8 8 1 4 1 8 \1 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories Table 8: Details of Business Activity PMI Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Real estate rental & leasing Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles… Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Nov 2020 Index 50.5 48.7 51.2 27.8 44.6 51.1 47.6 51.8 58.5 52.0 50.0 33.3 50.0 42.9 64.7 50.0 55.0 51.5 Dec 2020 Index 46.9 48.7 42.1 62.5 38.2 54.4 56.8 43.7 54.2 50.0 35.7 55.6 39.3 42.3 32.4 40.0 59.1 42.8 Direction Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Stationary Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Difference -3.6 0.0 -9.1 34.7 -6.4 3.4 9.2 -8.1 -4.2 -2.0 -14.3 22.2 -10.7 -0.5 -32.4 -10.0 4.1 -8.7 Rate Trend of (Months) Change From Expansion 1 Slower 10 From Expansion 1 From Contraction 1 Faster 5 Faster 2 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 Slower 3 From Expansion 1 From Stationary 1 From Contraction 1 From Stationary 1 Faster 9 From Expansion 1 From Stationary 1 Faster 2 From Expansion 1
11. Table 9 : Details of New Orders PMI Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Real estate rental & leasing Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles… Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Nov 2020 Index 46.9 43.0 48.8 35.0 36.5 45.7 52.4 46.4 59.9 41.3 56.3 38.1 45.5 42.9 61.8 50.0 38.9 47.8 Dec 2020 Index 45.1 49.2 39.2 66.7 39.2 52.3 50.0 40.2 47.2 41.3 28.6 50.0 41.5 53.8 32.4 40.0 59.1 41.4 Direction Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Growing Stationary Declining Declining Declining Declining Stationary Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Difference -1.8 6.1 -9.6 31.7 2.7 6.6 -2.4 -6.2 -12.7 0.0 -27.7 11.9 -4.0 11.0 -29.4 -10.0 20.2 -6.3 Rate Trend of (Months) Change Faster 9 Slower 9 Faster 2 From Contraction 1 Slower 9 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 Faster 9 From Expansion 1 Flat 2 From Expansion 1 From Contraction 1 Faster 8 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 From Stationary 1 From Contraction 1 Faster 9 Table 10: Details of Employment Level PMI Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles… Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Nov 2020 Index 46.7 47.8 48.8 35.0 41.4 46.7 54.8 44.6 53.5 44.0 43.8 42.9 50.0 43.2 41.7 55.9 41.7 50.0 44.0 Dec 2020 Index 45.1 48.7 43.2 50.0 47.4 48.9 52.3 40.3 43.8 37.5 28.6 47.1 75.0 38.1 42.3 47.1 20.0 50.0 48.0 Direction Declining Declining Declining Stationary Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Stationary Declining Rate Trend Difference of (Months) Change -1.6 Faster 9 0.9 Slower 9 -5.5 Faster 9 15.0 From Contraction 1 5.9 Slower 3 2.1 Slower 9 -2.5 Slower 2 -4.2 Faster 9 -9.8 From Expansion 1 -6.5 Faster 9 -15.2 Faster 8 4.2 Slower 10 25.0 From Stationary 1 -5.1 Faster 8 0.6 Slower 8 -8.8 From Expansion 1 -21.7 Faster 4 0.0 Flat 2 4.0 Slower 8
12. 11 Table 10 : Details of Inventory PMI Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, Maintenance/Washing Of Motor Vehicles… Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Nov 2020 Index 46.1 44.6 56.8 30.0 41.4 48.9 44.7 44.4 50.7 50.0 50.0 40.5 25.0 43.2 41.7 50.0 33.3 33.3 48.4 Dec 2020 Index 45.7 47.3 47.1 54.2 41.4 46.6 52.3 43.1 46.3 50.0 42.9 50.0 41.0 45.8 43.8 50.0 50.0 43.2 Direction Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Stationary Declining Stationary Declining Declining Declining Stationary Stationary Declining Rate Trend Difference of (Months) Change -0.4 Faster 9 2.7 Slower 9 -9.7 From Expansion 1 24.2 From Contraction 1 0.0 Flat 3 -2.3 Faster 2 7.5 From Contraction 1 -1.3 Faster 9 -4.5 From Expansion 1 0.0 Flat 2 -7.1 From Stationary 1 9.5 From Contraction 1 25.0 -2.2 Faster 8 4.2 Slower 8 -6.3 From Stationary 1 16.7 From Contraction 1 16.7 From Contraction 1 -5.3 Faster 9
13. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 June '18 July '18 Aug '18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Nov '18 Dec '18 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar '19 Apr '19 May '19 June '19 July '19 Aug '19 Sep '19 Oct '19 Nov '19 Dec '19 Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 May '20 Jun '20 Jul '20 Aug '20 Sep '20 Oct '20 Nov '20 Dec '20 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 52.9 54.1 53.6 55.3 55.0 55.9 59.3 57.3 56.3 56.7 56.9 56.5 57.0 56.8 57.1 56.2 56.8 57.9 61.1 58.5 57.1 57.4 57.7 57.8 57.4 57.6 57.9 57.7 58.2 59.3 60.8 59.2 58.3 51.1 42.4 41.1 44.9 48.5 46.9 49.4 50.2 49.6 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 58.2 59.3 57.4 58.8 58.4 59.3 63.2 59.6 57.8 59.1 58.6 58.8 59.2 59.0 59.3 58.4 58.9 59.9 63.6 59.3 57.5 58.3 58.8 59.1 59.3 58.9 58.7 58.5 59.3 60.1 61.8 59.6 58.9 54.4 44.5 36.6 44.7 49.2 47.3 50.0 51.7 51.6 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 51.0 52.7 52.3 53.5 52.8 54.3 60.0 58.3 55.6 56.1 55.8 54.9 56.2 55.8 56.9 55.3 56.8 58.1 62.3 58.9 56.9 56.7 57.2 56.9 55.9 57.2 57.1 57.2 57.9 59.4 61.5 59.7 59.1 52.3 42.8 36.4 42.9 49.2 46.4 51.2 50.5 50.2 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 50.3 51.3 52.0 55.4 55.5 56.0 57.4 56.8 57.0 56.6 57.4 57.5 56.5 56.8 55.9 56.1 56.4 56.9 58.4 58.3 58.2 58.4 58.1 58.4 58.7 57.5 58.3 58.4 58.6 58.7 60.5 59.1 58.4 49.4 65.2 60.9 56.4 53.0 53.5 51.8 52.2 51.2 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 51.1 51.8 51.5 52.8 53.1 53.7 53.9 53.3 53.9 53.3 55.0 55.2 55.4 55.0 55.5 54.9 54.8 55.4 57.0 56.4 56.3 56.9 57.0 57.3 57.5 57.3 57.1 56.6 56.8 57.7 58 57.3 56.4 47.1 24.5 38.8 40.0 44.6 44.1 46.0 47.3 46.3 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 52.3 53.6 54.9 56.4 56.5 57.1 61.1 57.7 58.1 59.4 59.5 58.1 57.7 57.4 57.1 55.9 56.2 58.7 63.2 59.9 56.2 57.1 57.5 56.8 55.0 56.2 58.7 58.1 58.6 60.6 62.4 60.7 58.5 49.4 37.4 41.0 43.4 46.1 43.0 46.2 48.5 46.9 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 32.6 37.5 36.7 30.4 35.5 37.6 40.2 35.1 42.0 36.4 37.6 40.1 37.6 39.4 39.7 37.1 39.9 41.2 42.1 41.4 39.7 47.9 37.4 37.7 38.0 41.1 39.9 39 40 41.0 39.1 37.0 41.9 42.3 36.3 25.9 29.1 31.8 32.7 33.4 35.4 33.1 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 62.7 60.4 58.8 58.2 55.4 54.0 54.3 55.0 55.9 52.1 51.3 53.9 53.8 52.3 50.1 52.4 51.2 51.9 51.6 52.5 53.7 62.3 52.4 52.3 52.4 52.2 50.3 51.9 52.5 53.1 51.9 55.3 53.7 53 53.2 53.2 58.5 58.4 58.8 60.0 60.1 61.4 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 66.6 64.1 64.9 65.7 62.7 64.3 63.4 63.3 65.4 61.1 62.4 61.8 61.9 60.7 59.3 57.5 56.7 57.8 61.3 62.2 60.9 57.6 60.2 62.2 62.7 59.5 57.0 58.8 58.4 59.3 59.2 63.5 61.4 62.6 61.4 67.2 67.4 66.8 69.8 70.9 71.7 73.0 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.2 48.0 49.0 49.4 49.6 48.1 53.6 49.1 54.3 54.1 52.9 50.8 47.6 51.1 50.1 49.4 50.9 52.2 56.1 52.5 52.1 51.8 57.3 51.5 52.1 52.5 51.2 50.7 53.7 55.8 57 54.8 55.5 55.6 26.3 35.8 39.6 47.7 42.9 47.8 51.7 49.0 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40.0 42.3 43.9 42.1 47.9 51.9 50.8 50.0 45.7 42.9 37.6 42.1 41.4 38.5 38.0 40.7 43.1 42.2 39.6 40.0 41.7 42.1 44.1 47.6 44.5 40.8 43.8 41.8 42.4 43.9 42.5 41.4 45.5 42.6 43.3 41.2 34.9 36.4 39.0 41.1 42.0 42.0 43.3 41.0 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 3: Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8 49.1 48.5 51.6 50.4 50.0 48.8 47.4 45.4 53.3 48.7 51.1 55.8 51.1 51.3 50.7 50.5 51.5 53.8 50.6 52.3 55.4 60.7 54.4 51.5 51.1 51.5 52.1 53.5 53.1 53.1 52.8 51.0 51.8 50.3 39.6 43.3 46.2 45.6 45.8 44.9 46.6 42.7
14. 13 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 June '17 July '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 June '18 July '18 Aug '18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Nov '18 Dec '18 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar '19 Apr '19 May '19 June '19 July '19 Aug '19 Sep '19 Oct '19 Nov '19 Dec '19 Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 May '20 Jun '20 Jul '20 Aug '20 Sep '20 Oct '20 Nov '20 Dec '20 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 54.2 54.4 54.1 54.9 55.3 57.6 62.1 58.5 56.1 57.2 57.5 57.3 57.5 57.7 58.0 56.5 57.0 58.4 62.3 60.1 58.4 58.5 58.7 58.9 58.6 58.7 58.8 58.0 58.2 60.1 62.1 59.6 58.6 49.2 25.3 35.7 43.3 44.7 41.9 46.8 46.8 45.7 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 57.0 56.8 56.1 56.8 57.5 59.4 67.4 61.3 55.6 58.7 58.8 58.7 59.1 59.6 59.3 58.1 58.3 60.4 65.2 61.7 59.7 57.8 58.4 59.2 58.2 57.6 58.2 57.2 57.9 60.0 62.6 59.8 59.3 52.2 19.5 34.3 46.1 47.4 43.7 48.7 48.7 46.9 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 54.6 55.1 53.5 55.4 55.7 58.4 62.2 58.2 53.7 55.8 56.4 55.9 56.4 56.1 56.9 55.8 56.4 57.5 63.1 60.2 58.6 58.9 59.0 58.6 59.2 60.1 59.6 58.4 58.5 60.7 61.9 59.4 58.8 47.8 19.6 32.5 43.4 44 39.5 47.8 47.8 45.1 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 53.4 54.0 54.4 54.7 54.4 54.6 55.7 55.1 55.3 55.1 55.3 55.6 55.9 56.2 56.7 55.4 55.7 56.2 57.9 57.7 57.3 57.8 58.7 58.5 58.3 58.0 57.8 58.0 57.1 58.4 60.8 58.9 57.8 47.3 32.0 37.4 41.1 44.3 41.6 44.2 44.2 45.1 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 51.8 51.9 52.3 52.9 53.4 58.0 62.9 59.5 59.8 59.2 59.5 59.2 58.5 59.1 58.9 56.8 57.6 59.6 62.8 60.6 58.2 59.5 58.5 59.3 58.8 58.9 59.8 58.5 59.2 61.5 63.1 60.4 58.6 49.6 30.1 38.5 42.7 43.1 43.1 46.3 46.3 45.7 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 58.6 58.1 54.5 56.9 56.4 55.7 56.1 56.9 52.8 50.3 50.3 50.8 52.2 52.1 50.8 50.2 50.7 52.6 52.4 52.2 50.3 50.5 52.1 51.3 52.1 51.7 51.2 51.9 52.2 54.6 56.0 51.2 52.1 51.2 42.6 46.7 50.9 53.5 51.2 52.6 52.6 54.7 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 40.5 42.9 42.8 42.2 41.4 43.6 44.6 41.3 41.2 42.9 41.5 40.6 44.0 43.1 43.3 41.5 42.8 42.0 42.7 40.1 38.8 40.3 43.5 42.3 40.3 41.4 45.1 45.5 42.9 43.6 42.5 43.2 44.1 41.6 31.1 38.5 38.7 43.1 42.3 43.9 43.9 43.4 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 30.3 32.0 34.5 31.2 29.6 28.8 34.6 31.0 34.7 39.0 34.2 36.4 33.2 42.1 40.1 40.3 39.7 38.7 42.0 38.1 36.2 39.4 38.8 39.8 43.0 42.0 44.1 42.4 40.4 41.6 43.2 41.3 44.6 36.1 22.6 27.0 31.0 34.2 32.8 34.2 34.2 34.6 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 33.5 36.8 34.8 35.9 35.4 33.3 39.1 35.1 39.1 38.5 34.9 38.4 40.1 40.5 40.3 41.3 42.2 39.4 41.3 40.4 42.2 38.7 40.8 43.2 45.3 43.9 45.2 45.7 41.7 41.9 41.8 42.3 42.9 39.1 22.7 29.6 32.5 36.6 33.5 37.2 37.2 34.2 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employment Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month Table 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Data Series 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6 42.7 41.5 42.0 44.2 38.9 40.6 40.3 42.8 40.3 44.1 45.0 46.2 42.4 45.0 44.8 45.7 45.5 45.9 45.8 45.5 44.6 44.2 45.0 44.5 46.1 46.6 48.1 48.7 45.1 45.8 43.5 45.3 46.0 44.4 29.8 34.5 38.9 40.7 39.3 41.8 41.8 41.1