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Nigeria: Consumer Price Index - February 2018

IM Research
By IM Research
8 years ago
Nigeria: Consumer Price Index - February 2018

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  1. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS Consumer Price Index February 2018 (BASE PERIOD DECEMBER 2009 = 100) Report Date: March 2018 Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
  2. Content Brief Methodology .............................................................................................. 1 All Items In d ex............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Food Ind ex..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 All Items Less Farm Produce............................................................................................................................................................... 9 State P ro file s..................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Infographics............................................................................................................ 11 Statistical News..................................................................................................... 17 Acknowledgements/Contacts.............................................................................27
  3. Brief Methodology The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for dayto-day living . The construction of the CPI combines economic theory, sampling and other statistical techniques using data from other surveys to produce a weighted measure of average price changes in the Nigerian economy. The weighting occurs to capture the importance of the selected commodities in the entire index. The production of the CPI requires skills of economists, statisticians, computer scientists, data collectorsand others. Key in the construction of the price index is the selection of the market basket of goods and services. Every month, 10,534 informants spread across the country provide price data for the computation of the CPI.The market items currentlycomprise of 740 goods and services regularly priced. The first stage in the calculation of the CPI is the collection of prices on each item (740 goods and services) from outlets in each sector (rural or urban) for each state. Prices are then averaged for each item per sector across the state. The next step is to use the average price to calculate the basic index for each commodity: The current year price of each commodity is compared with a base year's price to obtain a relative price. Next we use the Laspeyres formula to compute an aggregated index for each class (which has a multitude of commodities which have similar consumption purposes): Here the sum of the product of weights (obtained from the expenditure survey) and relative prices for each item is divided by the sum of the weight of the items in that class, and the result multiplied by 100 gives the required index number. This index number is still classified according to the urban or rural classification sector for each of the 36 states and the FCT. This yields 85 classes then 48 groups which are then reclassified into 12 Divisions to derive: 1. The country composite index 2. The Urban National index 3. The Rural National index 4. The Combined Urban and Rural State Composite index The survey methodology generates 3774 all items indices for all states and the FCT. This edition of the Statistical News contains the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2003/2004. The consumption expenditure data w ere re-valued to November 2009, which is the base period for the revised CPI. The May 2003 and September 1985 based indices are being continued using factors derived from the new CPI. These indices will yield the same price change for any commodity group contained in all the series. Consumer Price Index
  4. A new sub index - Imported Food Index- is available in the revised CPI . Note: The urban and rural indices were weighted with the ratio of their populations to the national i.e. 0.455 and 0.545 respectively to compute the composite indices at the 12 Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICO P) functions and all items levels. This may cause variance between a recalculated all items index using the weights published on table 2 and the published all items index because the published weights were computed only from consumption expenditure survey result.The following breakdown highlights a non-exhaustive listofthe components of thecurrent CPI: The following breakdown highlights a non-exhaustive list of the components of the current CPI: A, FOODAND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR Meat Fish * € - Milk, cheese and eggs ÏÎ Coffee, tea and cocoa Clothing materials, other articles of clothing Wine t Garments Soft drinks b It Spirits Oils and fats jV Potatoes, Yam & Food products other tubers n.e.c Vegetables 1 0 * 6 -0 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND KOLA » Bread and cereals & Fruit ✓ Tobacco Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing Shoes and other footwear Narcotics Repair and hire of footwear 2 Consumer Price Index
  5. A , ft I f f Actual and imputed rentals for housing Water supply Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS « Gas 0Q0 1—1 J Major household appliances whether electric or not HEALTH <& Pharmaceutical products ■ Liquid fuel f§ FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT Electricity ■ 6 ftUi Furniture and furnishings t i* ^ Solid fuels -m m n im m i- V r3 Carpets a nd other floor coverings b ^ b i—»j Repair of household appliances T Medical services Repair of Furniture Household textiles / ■■■ it ” Glassware, Non-durable Domestic tableware and household goods services and household utensils household services iSl IT Dental services Paramedical services Hospital services <M ) Motor cars Motor cycles Bicycles Vehicle spare parts TRANSPORT 11 ? Maintenance Fuels and lubricants Passenger and repair of for personal transport by road personal transport transportation »1Passenger Passenger transport by air transport by sea and inland waterways 3 Consumer Price Index
  6. COMMUNICATION Postal services RECREATION AND CULTURE Telephone and telefax equipment r & Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment Photographic development Telephone and telefax services X Musical instrument Recreational and sporting services Games of chance RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS Catering services MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES Accommodation services is ttf ©0 ♦ Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments Appliances, articles and products for personal care Jewellery, clocks and watches Insurance Other services 4 Consumer Price Index
  7. All Items Index The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 14.33 percent (year-on-year) in February 2018. This thirteenth consecutive disinflation since January 2017 is 0.8 percent points less than the rate recorded in January 2018 (15.13) percent. Increases were recorded in all C O IC O P divisions that yield the Headline Index. On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.79 percent in February 2018, down by 0.01 percent points from the rate recorded in January. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve month period ending February 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve month period was 15.93 percent, showing 0.29 percent point lower from 16.22 percent recorded in January 2018. The Food Index increased by 17.59 percent (year-on-year) in February, down by 1.33 percent points from rate recorded in January 2018 (18.92) percent. During the month, all major food sub-indexes increased. Price movements recorded by All Items less farm produce or Core sub-index increased by 11.7 percent (year-on-year) in February 2018, down by 0.4 percent points from the rate recorded in January (12.10) percent. During the month, the highest increases were seen in prices of Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Narcotics, Vehicle spare parts, Passenger transport by air, Clearing, repair and hire of clothing, Hospital services, Domestic services and household services and Glassware, tableware and household utensils. The Urban inflation rate rose by 14.76 percent (year-on-year) in February 2018 from 15.56 percent recorded in January, while the Rural inflation rate also eased by 13.96 percent in February 2018 from 14.76 percent in January. On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.82 percent in February 2018, down by 0.01 from 0.83 percent recorded in January, while the rural index also rose by 0.77 percent in February 2018, showing no difference with the rate recorded in January. The corresponding twelve month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.24 percent in February 2018. This is less than 16.55 percent reported in January, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in February 2018 is 15.64 percent compared to 15.89 percent recorded in January. 5 Consumer Price Index
  8. 1 . Inflation: Composite Year-on Change (%) 2. Inflation: Composite 12-Month Average Change (%) 6 Consumer Price Index
  9. Consumer Price Index
  10. NO O ho Ol
  11. Food Index The Composite Food Index rose by 17 .59 percent in February 2018. The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Milk, cheese and egg, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Fish and Vegetables, Coffee, tea and cocoa. On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.85 percent in February 2018, down by 0.02 percent points from 0.87 percent recorded in January. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending February 2018 over the previous twelve month average was 19.52 percent, 0.1 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in January (19.62) percent. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 7 Consumer Price Index
  12. All Items Less Farm Produce The "All Items less Farm Produce" or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce is 11.7 percent in February 2018, down by 0.4 percent points from the rate recorded in January (12.10) percent. On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.75 percent in February 2018, this was up by 0.07 percent when compared with 0.68 percent recorded in January. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Narcotics, Vehicle spare parts, Passenger transport by air, Clearing, repair and hire of clothing, Hospital services, Domestic services and household services and Glassware, tableware and household utensils. The average 12 month annual rate of change of the index was 12.67 percent for the twelve-month period ending February 2018; this is 0.34 percent points lower than 13.01 percent recorded in January. 8 Consumer Price Index
  13. State Profiles In analyzing price movements under this section , note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making interstate comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading A ll Items Inflation In February 2018, all items inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (18.60%), Bauchi (17.68%) and Yobe (17.65%), while Delta (11.74%), Edo (12.33%) and Kogi (12.74%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation. On a month on month basis however, February 2018 all items inflation was highest in Kebbi (1.90%), Yobe (1.72%) and Rivers (1.58%), while Ebonyi and Nasarawa recorded price deflation on a month on month all item basis in February 2018 Food Inflation In February 2018, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kwara (23.52%), Yobe (22.37%)and Kebbi (21.82%), while Bauchi (12.82%), Anambra (13.53%) and Benue (13.83%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation. On a month on month basis however, February 2018 food inflation was highest in Kebbi (2.58%), Yobe (2.07%) and Niger (1.94%), while Abuja, Ebonyi. Enugu, Kogi Nasarawa, Plateau and Taraba all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in February 2018. 9 Consumer Price Index
  14. Table 5 Combined Urban And Rural State Consumer Price Index (Base Period: November 2009 = 100) All Items Food Year on Year Abia Abuja Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nassarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara 14.05 14.41 13.28 12.82 17.68 16.11 12.84 13.56 13.54 11.74 14.54 12.33 13.72 14.26 14.08 13.62 14.58 15.85 15.44 14.28 18.60 12.74 13.39 14.71 16.12 15.02 13.88 14.36 14.23 15.13 14.40 16.35 13.56 15.75 17.65 15.66 18.31 19.12 15.74 13.53 12.82 21.27 13.83 15.50 18.72 18.61 16.71 17.76 20.15 18.71 15.77 18.40 16.51 19.11 19.11 16.51 21.82 14.36 23.52 18.23 20.07 19.67 16.83 16.57 18.09 17.86 15.42 18.51 15.94 19.19 22.37 17.88 Food All Items Month on Month 1.49 1.00 - 0.01 0.63 0.90 0.70 0.16 0.48 0.33 0.70 0.70 0.98 0.12 0.46 0.44 0.60 0.16 0.36 1.28 0.44 1.45 1.33 - 0.79 - 0.03 1.32 0.91 0.91 0.95 - 0.39 0.54 0.05 0.30 1.17 0.74 0.04 0.52 0.54 0.48 0.65 0.51 0.65 0.51 2.58 1.90 - 0.05 0.05 0.40 0.42 1.81 1.29 - 1.11 - 0.42 1.94 1.40 1.05 0.81 0.39 0.49 0.38 0.65 0.58 0.59 - 0.02 0.31 1.87 1.58 0.64 0.28 - 0.84 0.07 2.07 1.72 0.44 0.69 Note: Indices may not be used for inter-state price comparison because market baskets differ from state to state 10 Consumer Price Index
  15. HEADLINE CPI IN FEBRUARY 2018 ROSE BY 0 .79% 14.33% YEAR-ON-YEAR MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 15.13% IN JANUARY 2018) (FROM 0.80% IN JANUARY 2017) HIGHEST INCREASE RECORDED IN C o ffe e , T e a & C o c o a M ilk , C h e e s e a n d E g g F is h The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation rate 11 Consumer Price Index
  16. FOOD SUB-INDEX IN FEBRUARY 2018 ROSE BY 17 .59% 0.85% YEAR-ON-YEAR MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 18.92% IN JANUARY 2017) (FROM 0.87% IN JANUARY 2017) HIGHEST INCREASE RECORDED IN ¿7 BREAD & CEREALS VEGETABLES POTATOES, YAMS & OTHER TUBERS 4 d H COFFEE, TEA & COCOA MILK, CHEESE & EGG FISH The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation 12 Consumer Price Index
  17. I ® N ATIO N A L BUREAU OF STATISTICS CORE SUB-INDEX IN FEBRUARY 2018 ROSE BY 11.7% 0.75% YEAR-ON-YEAR MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 12.10% IN JANUARY 2017) (FROM 0.68% IN JANUARY 2017) HIGHEST INCREASE RECORDED IN F U E L A N D M A IN T E N A N C E A N D L U B R IC A N T S R E P A IR O F F O R P E R S O N A L P E R S O N A L T R A N S P O R T T R A N S P O R T E Q U IP M E N T E Q U IP M E N T L l j P A S S E N G E R T R A N S P O R T B Y A IR CLEARING REPAIR AND HIRE OF CLOTHING HOSPITAL SERVICES The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation rate 13 Consumer Price Index
  18. © N ATIO N A L BUREAU OF STATISTICS URBAN INDEX IN FEBRUARY 2018 ROSE BY 14.76% YEAR-ON-YEAR 0.82% MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 15.56% IN JANUARY 2017) (FROM 0.83% IN JANUARY 2017) RURAL INDEX IN FEBRUARY 2018 ROSE BY 13.96% YEAR-ON-YEAR (FROM 14.76% IN JANUARY 2017) 0.77% MONTH-ON-MONTH (FROM 0.77% IN JANUARY 2017) The CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living i.e it measures the inflation rate 14 j Consumer Price Index
  19. N ATIO N A L BUREAU OF STATISTICS STATE PROFILES ALL ITEMS INFLATION All Times Inflation on a YoY Basis Was Highest In Slowest Rise in Headline Inflation KEBBI ► 18.60% DELTA ► 11.74% BAUCHI ► 17.68% EDO ► 12.33% YOBE ► 17.65% KOGI ► 12.74% MONTH ON MONTH All Times Inflation on a M oM Basis Was Highest In Slowest Rise in Headline Inflation KEBBI 1.90% EBONYI -0 .03% YOBE 1.72% NASARAWA -0 .42 % RIVERS 1.58% TARABA 0 .07% 17 Consumer Price Index
  20. N ATIO N A L BUREAU OF STATISTICS STATE PROFILES FOOD INFLATION Food Inflation on a YoY basis Was Highest In Slowest Rise in Food Inflation KWARA ► 23.52% KOGI ► 13.25% YOBE ► 22.37% BAUCHI ► 15.42 % KEBBI ► 21.82% BENUE ► 15.19% MONTH ON MONTH Food Inflation on a M oM Basis Was Highest In Slowest Rise in Food Inflation KEBBI 2.58% ABUJA -0 .01% YOBE 2.07% EBONYI -0 .79% NIGER 1.94% ENUGU -0 .39% 16 Consumer Price Index