MENA Market Report - 29 August

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , August 29, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: The trading activity within the MENA region remained under pressure, mainly due to the weakness in oil prices after output from Iraq increased and Iran indicated that it would cooperate in upcoming producer talks to freeze output if fellow exporters recognize its right to regain market share. Further, the Fed is signalling at possible rate hike this year on the back of meeting the targets, which is also weighing on the regional markets. For the day, Saudi and Qatar were the only two indexes to close in green, while the rest of them ended on the losing side. Saudi closed up by 1.6% as investors bought into beaten down stocks in the past four consecutive sessions. Saudi has remained under pressure throughout the year, however investors are cherry picking quality stocks which are beating market expectations and showing resilience in current challenging environment. UAE markets closed on a negative note as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both declined by 0.1% and 0.4% respectively, reversing the gains seen on the last trading session of the previous week. Qatar was up by 0.6% for the day, which was led by Qatar National Bank as it appreciated by 1.5%. Meanwhile, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman markets were down by 1.0%, 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively for the day. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened mostly on a positive note as Nikkei was up by 2.3% and Shanghai was flat, while Hang Seng was down by 0.4% respectively. Headlines (WW) Very Strong' Typhoon Lionrock Set to Pummel Japan (SA) Saudi prince visit eyes vast Chinese oil export market (WW) China’s Yanzhou Coal Swings to Profit as Australian Taxes Drop (SA) Saudi foreign assets drop by USD 6 billion in July (WW) Emerging-Market Assets Fall as Fed Comments Boost Rate Hike Bets (AE) Dubai’s rental declines are limited to the high-end (WW) Japan’s Regional Economy Minister Sees Wages as Key to Abenomics (AE) UAE Ministry of Economy to launch tourism leadership programme (WW) Hedge Funds Bail on Copper as Goldman Predicts ‘Supply Storm (AE) UAE development arm deposits USD 1 billion to spur Egypt economy (WW) World’s Biggest Pension Fund Loses USD 52 Billion in Stock Rout (AE) For Dubai Government Workers, the Wrong Day to Turn Up Late (WW) Trudeau Heads to China to Woo Trade Amid Weak Canadian Growth (OM) Demand for cement to remain steady in Oman (WW) Hong Kong Stocks Decline as Fed Bets Sink Property Developers (JO) Negative savings in Jordan’s economy (WW) China's contributions to global economic growth (JO) Jordan to renegotiate deals with UK in 2 years after Brexit (WW) World population may rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050 (EG) Egypt's parliament approves VAT at 13% rate in 2016/17 (CMD) Gold in Longest Stretch of Declines Since May as Fed Bets Climb (BH) Bahrain's mega-projects show investor appetite for GCC property remain strong (FX) Yuan Weakens to Five-Week Low as Fed Rate Signals Renew Pressure (BH) Bahrain Islamic Bank plans EUR 166 million sale of non-core assets (FX) Dollar Rises on Fed’s Rate-Hike Signals as Emerging Markets Sink (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,490.27 -0.1% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,499.74 -0.4% -0.1% 0.2% 10.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ -0.4% -1.7% 4.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,071.41 1.6% 1.6% -3.7% -12.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) Egypt (EGX30) 5,410.97 -0.3% -0.3% -0.7% -3.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ 8,052.23 -1.0% -1.0% 0.9% 14.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 11,197.48 0.6% 0.6% Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,139.34 -0.6% -0.6% 5.6% 7.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ -1.4% -6.3% ˅ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,809.33 -0.2% -0.2% -0.6% 7.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 184 252 395 63 94 136 82,894 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 54 70 106 19 45 53 120,444 Saudi (SASEIDX) 153 209 260 667 937 1,225 375,783 Kuwait (KWSE) 55 80 124 18 32 38 74,353 Egypt (EGX30) 82 208 251 43 93 113 42,998 Qatar (DSM) 4 6 8 45 65 79 139,455 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 3 2 1 2 1 18,315 Oman (MSM30) 12 16 21 6 8 11 16,875 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , August 29, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 12 PB 14.2 11.2 11.0 10.7 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 Egypt Qatar 0.00.0 Current 489.3 11.9 9.7 Previous 600 0.8 0.0 1.1 Bahrain Oman 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt 20% 15% 6.2% 5.6% 4.7% 4.4% 3.6% 3.9% 0% -3.6% -10% -15% 0.0% -6.3% -12.2% -20% 0% Kuwait 7.5% 7.4% 4.5% 5% 1.9% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Average 14.9% -5% 2% Oman 10.8% 10% 4.8% 4% Bahrain Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Qatar Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Zawya estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW, BA and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , August 29, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.96 -2.04% 534 518 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.35 -1.46% 3,962 5,389 17,858 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.54 -1.28% 1,422 2,204 4,297 MARKA PJSC 1.17 -0.85% 7 9 5,174 5,640 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECOMM 6.60 -0.75% 276 1,828 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 8.00 6.67% 1 8 NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 4.40 -4.35% 0 1 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.54 5.88% 73 38 UNITED ARAB BANK PJSC 2.30 -4.17% 500 1,175 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.55 3.33% 7 11 RAS AL KHAIMAH FOR WHITE CEMENT 1.13 -3.42% 1 1 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES CO PJSC 0.80 2.56% 29,486 23,294 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.21 -2.64% 21 46 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.84 1.20% 55 46 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING 2.64 -2.58% 0 1 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI INDUSTRIAL SERVICES CO SJSC 15.80 9.72% 624 9,423 ARABIAN SHIELD COOPERATIVE 24.20 -0.82% 387 9,393 ABDULLAH ABDUL MOHSIN AL KHO 10.75 8.59% 2,457 25,365 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL EXPORT CO SJSC 35.30 -0.56% 357 12,627 SAUDI REAL ESTATE CO SJSC 21.55 7.75% 892 18,537 SAUDI TRANSPORT AND INVESTMENT 57.00 -0.44% 226 12,884 ARRIYADH DEVELOPMENT CO SJSC 20.70 7.53% 587 11,735 JABAL OMAR DEVELOPMENT CO SJSC 59.75 -0.42% 377 22,575 EMAAR THE ECONOMIC CITY SJSC 13.80 5.75% 2,916 39,146 SAUDI BASIC INDUSTRIES CORP SJSC 82.50 -0.30% 3,307 273,237 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) CREDIT RATING AND COLLECTION 39.00 5.41% 13 0 KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY 20.50 -10.87% 23 1 MANAZEL HOLDING CO KPSC 29.50 5.36% 2,771 80 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 24.00 -9.43% 110 3 AL-ARABIYA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 33.00 4.76% 2,147 69 DANAH AL SAFAT FOODSTUFF CO 114.00 -8.06% 340 40 ABYAAR REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 22.50 4.65% 724 16 KUWAIT UNITED POULTRY COMPANY 176.00 -7.37% 20 4 IFA HOTELS AND RESORTS CO KSCP 196.00 4.26% 0 0 AWJ HOLDING CO KSCP 65.00 -7.14% 16 1 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) GENERAL COMPANY FOR PAPER 3.76 5.32% 157 590 GENERAL COMPANY FOR SILOS 34.10 -7.94% 170 5,816 ADVANCED PHARMACEUTICAL PACK 2.88 3.97% 133 382 ISMAILIA NATIONAL CO FOR FOOD 3.65 -6.17% 7 24 EGYPTIAN TRANSPORT AND 3.57 3.48% 184 657 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 11.04 -4.83% 11 117 CAIRO POULTRY CO SAE 4.70 3.30% 3 14 MISR NATIONAL STEEL SAE 9.09 -4.82% 4 38 EGYPTIAN COMPANY FOR 7.51 3.16% 232 1,739 ARAB VALVES CO SAE 0.83 -4.60% 15 12 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) AAMAL CO QSC 15.25 3.81% 735 11,007 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE 46.35 -4.04% 26 1,227 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 87.00 2.35% 6 555 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 58.50 -2.01% 32 1,863 DOHA BANK QSC 39.00 1.69% 64 2,457 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 52.60 -1.68% 33 1,725 QATAR NATIONAL BANK SAQ 167.00 1.52% 203 33,617 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 23.50 -1.63% 5 118 QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO 224.70 1.22% 25 5,555 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 57.10 -1.21% 4 208 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.95 5.36% 731 2,101 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.59 4.24% 300 173 ARAMEX PJSC 4.00 3.90% 4,550 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.35 2.27% 3,218 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.10 1.85% Close * EMIRATES DRIVING CO PJSC Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Egypt Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , August 29, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) SA 66,021 82.50 -0.3% 7.5% 3,307 72,753 92.75 59.50 15 1.5 6.7% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 47,005 19.85 -0.3% 23.3% 331 1,791 20.20 12.65 19 3.9 4.0% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 38,510 167.00 1.5% 14.5% 203 9,303 169.50 122.50 12 1.9 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 30,810 57.75 0.4% -15.4% 578 8,894 69.75 55.50 14 1.9 6.9% 5 Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corp SA 23,733 54.75 1.9% 5.3% 1,628 23,769 62.75 44.70 11 1.8 2.7% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 22,118 19.90 5.3% 26.3% 3,211 17,041 21.80 12.40 53 1.4 3.5% 7 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,875 113.60 0.5% 2.3% 62 1,927 135.00 88.00 17 2.1 4.4% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 18,673 35.00 0.0% -31.4% 242 2,254 58.75 34.20 8 1.2 4.4% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,106 18.20 -0.5% -10.3% 61 304 22.77 16.05 15 1.8 1.6% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,813 59.75 -0.4% 7.7% 377 6,007 68.75 40.80 - 5.9 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,581 11.90 -0.8% -5.9% 732 2,372 14.40 9.90 9 1.6 8.4% 12 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 14,190 19.48 0.2% 22.5% 264 1,411 20.24 12.10 30 1.8 2.6% 13 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,744 7.05 0.1% 23.9% 4,471 8,583 7.46 4.22 12 1.3 2.1% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 13,348 9.41 -0.6% 18.2% 612 1,569 10.40 6.86 10 1.1 4.8% 15 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,409 8.20 0.6% 10.8% 54 121 9.50 6.25 7 0.9 4.9% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,310 53.00 0.5% -9.7% 203 2,872 66.94 40.88 21 3.5 1.6% 17 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,863 580.00 -1.7% -22.0% 129 249 799.36 550.00 12 1.1 4.8% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,775 10.90 0.9% -30.6% 108 315 21.20 9.80 65 1.5 4.6% 19 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 10,473 33.60 1.2% 1.2% 765 6,855 43.20 25.70 105 1.4 0.0% 20 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,958 2.81 0.4% 1.8% 356 272 3.25 2.02 20 2.4 3.6% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,751 6.40 -0.2% -2.9% 836 1,458 8.01 5.20 7 1.2 7.0% 22 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 9,710 18.20 1.1% -22.1% 513 2,491 24.40 17.05 7 0.9 4.9% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,938 101.60 0.3% 35.5% 181 5,063 107.00 60.00 13 1.5 3.0% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,403 10.50 1.9% -15.3% 277 775 15.25 10.15 8 0.8 6.7% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm. AE 8,215 6.60 -0.8% 29.4% 276 496 6.99 4.89 16 3.9 6.5% 26 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,013 460.00 0.0% -6.3% 474 724 554.55 395.45 13 1.3 3.4% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,837 38.05 0.1% 1.2% 280 2,924 45.50 28.60 13 2.4 4.6% 28 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,347 5.46 -0.7% -3.2% 1,563 2,324 6.57 4.51 6 1.0 7.5% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,336 66.00 3.5% -20.2% 291 5,119 101.25 58.00 18 4.3 9.1% 30 Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ QA 7,268 112.00 0.0% 5.0% 23 697 121.00 75.10 13 1.7 3.8% Company Name 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corp SJSC Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 500,132 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. More-over, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Any reference to third party research material or any other report contained in this report represents the respective research organization’s estimates and views and does not represent the views of AMCML and its officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility whatsoever with respect to its accuracy or correctness and AMCML has included such reports or made reference to such reports in good faith. This report may also provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers, AMCML takes no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve general and specific risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. AMCML does not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. AMCML may seek to do business, or may already have had some business dealings, with companies covered in this report. As a result, investors should be aware that AMCML may be considered as having a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of research produced. Investors should consider any AMCML research as only a single factor in making any investment decision. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent of the Company. Copyright © 2015 Al Masah Capital Management Limited 4