MENA Market Report - 22 March

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 22, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed on a mixed note on thin volumes with the exception of Qatar. The trading activity within the region has been subdued as investors are looking for new cues to drive the markets. Oil prices are holding above the $50 mark but there is rising pressure on downside as supply imbalances continue to resurface within the commodity markets. As a result, investors might continue to remain on the sideline and wait for the Q1 earnings season to kick in from first week of April. The regional markets might follow the sell-off seen in US markets overnight on the back of uncertainty of US president's policies. For the day, four out of the eight indexes closed in red, while the other four ended in red. UAE markets closed on a positive note as Dubai was up by 0.5% and Abu Dhabi by 1.5% for the day. Abu Dhabi continues to climb higher during the week, which has pushed the gains to 2.0% in the past three sessions. Dubai was mostly supported by index heavyweight for the day, however the trends during the week remains slightly bearish. Qatar was up by 0.8% for the day as investors buy into the stocks to rebalance their portfolios, extending the gains to 1.2% in the past three sessions. Egypt was down by 0.9% for the day, second consecutive day of losses on the back of profit booking. Saudi Arabia closed marginally lower by 0.1% for the day, continuing its range bound performance amid lack of news flow. Bahrain was down by 0.6% and Oman by 0.7% for the day. International Markets: US markets witnessed strong selling pressure as Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down by 1.1%, 1.8% and 1.2% respectively. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were down by 0.7%, 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. At the time of writing the report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were down by 2.0%, 1.4% and 0.8% respectively. Headlines (WW) Fed on track to raise US rates twice more this year (GCC) GCC’s wealthy prefer to keep assets closer to home (WW) US current account shrinks in fourth quarter (SA) Saudis to tighten curbs on expats in local jobs push (WW) UK inflation shoots above 2%, adding to BoE conundrum (AE) UAE launches phase one of VAT awareness workshops (WW) UK wants to be China's leading Western financial partner (AE) Dubai Economy and agencies unveil new identity (WW) OECD sees China growth slowing to 6.5% in 2017, 6.3% in 2018 (AE) Abu Dhabi looks to Asia to take up oil concessions (WW) China home-buyers fret over prices, businesses more confident (AE) UAE ranked happiest country in Arab World (WW) China may publish rules on outbound investment this year (EG) World bank disburses another USD 1 billion loan to Egypt (WW) Japan land prices edge up in 2016 on tourism boom (EG) Egypt aims to raise EGP 6 billion from sale of stakes in state firms (CMD) Oil slides as market discounts OPEC output cut extension talk (EG) Egypt accounts for 5% of Arab bourses' market cap (CMD) Gold is marooned between US rates and India demand (QA) Qatari begins e-renewal of residence permits for employees (FX) Euro hits 6-week high against dollar after French presidential debate (QA) New arbitration law to benefit global firms in Qatar (FX) Dollar moves higher after hitting 3-week yen low (OM) Oman plans to raise tax on 'harmful products' this year (FI) US government bond yields lower on dovish Charles Evans (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,494.87 0.5% -0.8% -3.7% -1.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,512.82 1.2% 2.0% -0.9% -0.7% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,912.78 -0.1% -0.1% -0.9% -4.1% ˅ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,881.20 0.2% 1.0% 1.4% 19.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,905.37 -0.9% -0.6% 8.1% 4.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,485.53 0.8% 1.2% -2.0% 0.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,365.78 -0.6% -0.6% 1.2% 11.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,629.93 -0.7% -0.7% -2.6% -2.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 144 564 548 81 212 198 82,303 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 66 170 154 51 74 63 116,986 Saudi (SASEIDX) 150 224 255 820 1,090 1,132 432,054 Kuwait (KWSE) 400 460 291 111 139 92 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 205 360 368 65 96 91 19,793 Qatar (DSM) 14 10 9 138 97 81 132,635 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 4 5 4 4 4 2 21,318 Oman (MSM30) 40 19 18 26 12 11 16,774 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 22, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.7 Previous 489.3 11.3 9.4 386.2 8.7 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 600 12.9 12.0 11.1 12 PB 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 19.7% 5.5% 6% 18% 5.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4% 3.2% 4.5% -1.0% -0.7% Dubai Abu Dhabi -9% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 0.5% 0% 1.9% 2% 11.9% 9% -2.6% -4.1% -18% Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 22, 2017 Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.50 -3.53% 561 4,857 9,556 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.48 -3.38% 285 429 10,996 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.98 -2.56% 11,343 11,216 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.32 -2.27% 4,066 5,430 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.47 -2.15% 21,493 10,104 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL BANK OF FUJAIRAH PJSC 3.50 -10.00% 20 74 49 FINANCE HOUSE PJSC 1.75 -9.71% 71 132 526 922 GULF MEDICAL PROJECTS CO PSC 2.79 -8.24% 8 23 74 39 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.53 -3.92% 225 352 5.24% 3,441 6,408 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.73 -2.74% 2,332 1,726 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI INDIAN COMPANY FOR COOP 17.65 9.92% 3,414 57,540 SAUDI INDIAN COMPANY FOR COOP 19.60 -8.67% 6,610 135,702 UNITED ELECTRONICS COMPANY JSC 34.40 9.88% 1,210 39,753 MEDITERRANEAN AND GULF COOP 23.90 -5.86% 429 10,584 SAVOLA GROUP COMPANY SJSC 38.80 6.70% 1,375 51,671 BURUJ COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 32.00 -5.63% 1,071 35,302 AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 19.90 6.53% 2,392 46,144 TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE 18.00 -5.56% 1,211 22,431 SAUDI MARKETING COMPANY CJSC 28.00 6.43% 1,867 50,704 GULF GENERAL COOPERATIVE 17.65 -5.38% 473 8,580 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) SANAM REAL ESTATE COMPANY KSCP 54.00 9.26% 498 26 UNITED PROJECTS FOR AVIATION 840.00 -5.95% 4 3 AUTOMATED SYSTEMS CO KPSC 275.00 9.09% 0 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 42.50 -5.88% 1,017 45 KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 72.00 6.94% 15,552 1,083 METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 76.00 -5.26% 10 1 INTERNATIONAL RESORTS COMPANY 37.00 6.76% 5,509 197 HAYAT COMMUNICATIONS CO KSCP 99.00 -5.05% 1,184 120 KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 77.00 6.49% 37,456 2,796 ABYAAR REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 31.00 -4.84% 91,106 2,896 Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) GOLDEN TEXTILES AND CLOTHES 4.00 10.00% 4 15 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 37.10 -8.01% 52 2,030 GLAXOSMITHKLINE SAE 11.00 10.00% 14 147 SOUHAG NATIONAL COMPANY FOOD 39.46 -6.56% 71 2,903 ARAB DRUG COMPANY FOR PHARMA 12.28 9.93% 38 444 MISR FERTILIZERS PRODUCTION CO 82.78 -5.93% 116 9,881 NASR CO FOR CIVIL WORKS SAE 16.43 9.92% 24 383 WADI KOM OMBO FOR LAND 5.35 -5.42% 2 11 ACROWMISR FOR METALLIC 65.94 9.84% 103 6,495 AL BARAKA BANK EGYPT SAE 10.84 -5.07% 10 110 Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR CINEMA FILM DISTRIBUTION 26.80 9.89% 0 8 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 89.00 -4.27% 1 100 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 42.70 8.67% 13 541 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 27.95 -1.97% 189 5,323 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 16.30 4.36% 2 35 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 28.40 -1.58% 336 9,621 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 32.40 3.86% 402 12,773 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 9.79 -1.43% 7 65 MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEV 13.33 3.53% 263 3,447 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 22.30 -1.35% 192 4,303 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.84 4.35% 5,074 9,141 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.40 2.50% 4,031 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 2.00 2.00% 5,553 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.86 1.98% 340 290 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.09 1.83% 1,902 2,055 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) INVEST BANK PSC 2.07 14.98% 1,045 2,022 EMIRATES DRIVING CO PJSC 8.50 8.82% 6 COMMERCIAL BANK INTERNATIONAL 1.80 5.56% ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.54 5.56% INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.91 Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , March 22, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 77,200 96.50 0.3% 5.5% 1,960 50,426 98.50 73.25 16 1.8 4.1% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,977 18.15 1.4% -3.5% 886 4,379 20.20 17.15 18 3.7 4.4% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,291 147.00 0.1% -0.7% 176 7,116 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 2.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 35,733 67.00 -0.4% -7.6% 136 2,431 74.00 51.00 16 2.2 6.0% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,408 63.25 -0.8% 0.4% 2,402 40,509 67.50 48.60 13 2.0 3.6% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 25,333 22.80 -1.5% 1.8% 1,705 10,367 25.80 14.30 45 1.5 3.1% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 21,120 39.60 0.3% -7.0% 101 1,069 46.30 32.00 8 1.3 4.0% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,943 114.00 -0.3% -3.0% 335 10,498 122.00 94.50 23 2.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,053 21.75 0.6% 24.2% 328 1,945 22.25 15.53 19 2.1 1.7% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,729 67.50 -1.5% -9.7% 315 5,666 76.00 46.00 82 6.2 0.0% 11 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 16,264 11.00 0.0% 0.0% 3 8 11.95 1.57 452 8.9 0.0% 12 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 15,928 13.00 1.6% 1.2% 4,032 14,271 14.00 10.50 10 1.6 7.7% 13 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 15,023 10.50 1.9% 5.1% 2,759 7,888 10.90 7.60 11 1.2 4.3% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,720 69.00 -0.7% 0.7% 499 9,186 71.00 50.00 27 4.2 1.3% 15 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,328 7.35 0.7% 3.1% 3,809 7,622 7.79 5.76 10 1.3 2.0% 16 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 14,063 760.00 1.3% 16.9% 4,562 11,383 760.00 550.00 15 1.4 3.9% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,464 40.00 -1.0% 2.6% 457 4,880 43.80 27.80 117 1.7 0.0% 18 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,408 8.20 -3.5% -3.4% 561 1,253 9.00 7.56 7 0.8 4.9% 19 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,299 15.51 0.2% 2.6% 1,375 5,859 20.24 14.63 23 1.4 3.2% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,253 21.10 0.5% -13.3% 318 1,787 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.5% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,624 10.75 -1.8% -10.0% 278 797 13.15 9.90 78 1.4 0.0% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,498 610.00 -1.6% 13.0% 3,762 7,535 630.00 431.82 15 1.7 2.8% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,695 6.85 0.3% -0.7% 1,415 2,639 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.8% 24 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,264 105.30 2.3% 3.4% 438 12,661 116.10 81.50 15 1.5 3.3% 25 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,213 2.60 0.0% -0.8% 3,421 2,422 3.10 2.48 18 2.1 3.8% 26 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,775 42.60 2.4% 13.3% 1,431 16,737 43.35 32.10 15 2.5 4.7% 27 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,520 10.65 1.9% -7.8% 1,319 3,745 11.80 8.55 10 0.8 6.1% 28 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,438 56.25 -0.9% 4.2% 218 3,268 59.75 37.00 14 1.9 5.3% 29 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,400 21.00 0.2% -16.0% 860 4,817 25.90 16.40 8 1.0 3.3% 30 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 7,937 24.70 0.0% -5.4% 146 963 27.80 18.00 8 1.0 4.3% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 549,901 3.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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