MENA Market Report - 19 October

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 19, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed on a mixed note, while global markets were positive on the back of weaker dollar, rise in commodity price s coupled with Fed's focus towards inflation and the process of tightening expected to tone down going forward. For the region, the trading activity is dominated mostly by the third quarter earnings, while the positive impact of global markets were limited on regional investors. For the day, three markets ended in green and three in red, while the remaining two remained unchanged. UAE markets ended on a positive note after days of downward pressure. Despite the rise of 1.4% in Dubai and 1.2% in Abu Dhabi, both indexes are in red for the week so far, further substantiating the selling pressure seen in the previous few sessions. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, continued to remain under pressure as it was down by 1.9% for the day, extending the losses to 4.1% in the past three trading sessions. Earnings from banks and other corporates are dominating the trading activity which has been more or less in line with expectations. Egypt also closed lower by 0.4% for the day, extending the losses to 3.4% in the past three sessions. Qatar closed up by 0.6% for the day, continuing the positive trend within the region, while the rest of the markets remained under pressure. Kuwait closed up marginally by 0.1%, while Oman and Bahrain remained unchanged for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.4%, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively for the day . European markets also closed in green as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all up by 0.8%, 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Hang Seng was down by 0.2%, while Nikkei and Shanghai were up by 0.1% each. Headlines (WW) US rates expected to rise in December, but lackluster growth looks likely (ME) MENA mobile phone industry to contribute 4.2% to GDP by 2020 (WW) Hedge Fund Startups Plummet in Asia Amid Low Returns, High Fees (GCC) GCC Islamic banks among most efficient worldwide (WW) UK economy to enter period of weaker growth (GCC) GCC sovereign funding needs to top $560 billion (WW) China Q3 economic growth seen steadying but property, debt key risks (WW) China Coal Mining Slips While Efforts to Boost Output Ramp Up (SA) Portugal seeks enhanced trade cooperation with Saudi Arabia (WW) Chinese Steel Mills Defy Calls for Cuts as Production Expands (AE) Dubai ranks 16th among world’s 28 leading innovation-driven cities (WW) China Home Sales Value Rose 61% in September From Year Earlier (AE) Du still sees growth opportunities in UAE (WW) China Growth Holds at 6.7%, Backed by Government and Consumers (AE) Real-Time Technology to Reduce UAE Airport Queues and Delays (CMD) Gold futures notch best settlement in nearly 2 weeks (EG) Egypt, Japan to sign two financing deals in final week of October (CMD) Oil Seen Stuck in USD 50-60 Range as Shale Blunts OPEC Action (EG) US working with G7 countries to fund IMF Egypt program (FX) Dollar Drops for Third Day as US Inflation Data Damp Fed Bets (QA) Qatar’s USD 10 billion gas project delayed again (FX) Sterling and FTSE 100 jump as inflation hits two-year high (KW) Kuwait intent to boost investments in Jordan (FI) Saudi Arabia takes orders for first international bond sale (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (SA) Saudi miner Ma'aden's profit up 4.6% on cost cuts MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,317.97 1.4% -0.5% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,269.34 1.2% -1.8% -4.5% 5.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ -4.6% -0.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,460.94 -1.9% -4.1% -2.9% -21.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,283.59 Egypt (EGX30) 8,213.53 -0.1% -0.8% -2.1% -5.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ -0.4% -3.4% 4.2% 17.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,484.09 0.6% 0.9% Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,137.01 -0.0% -0.7% 0.5% 0.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ -1.1% -6.5% ˄ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,583.55 0.0% -1.4% -2.5% 3.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 234 251 286 84 92 100 78,040 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 44 69 78 30 38 43 114,614 Saudi (SASEIDX) 167 179 227 681 788 1,034 352,048 Index Kuwait (KWSE) 54 62 89 32 27 31 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 193 198 194 123 87 97 25,163 Qatar (DSM) 5 7 7 64 77 72 131,066 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 2 2 1 1 1 17,529 Oman (MSM30) 21 18 19 11 9 10 16,584 * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 19, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 10.6 11.1 11.0 386.2 10.6 9.3 8.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 106.9 87.2 1.2 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 6.6% 6% Current 489.3 13.4 12 Previous 600 5.1% 5.3% 9% 5.3% 3.3% 0.5% 3.9% 4% 17.2% 18% 5.9% 3.6% 2.4% 0% -0.9% -9% 2% -5.9% -6.5% -18% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -21.0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 19, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.52 -2.27% 1,058 553 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.46 -0.86% 10,684 4,947 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AL KHALEEJ INVESTMENT CO PJSC 1.47 -33.78% 25 46 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.57 -5.00% 210 123 17,425 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE CO PSC 0.37 -2.63% 333 125 26,045 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.47 -2.08% 306 145 1,130 2,130 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.49 -2.00% 109 54 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) 64.00 3.23% 291 18,304 NATIONAL INDUSTRIALIZATION CO JSC 12.25 -10.26% 6,253 80,971 BUPA ARABIA FOR COOPERATIVE 112.00 2.75% 107 11,846 ABDULMOHSEN AL HOKAIR GROUP 24.25 -9.85% 654 16,718 NATIONAL GAS & INDUSTRIALIZATION 25.60 2.40% 64 1,615 FAWAZ ABDULAZIZ ALHOKAIR CO SJSC 21.95 -9.48% 4,541 104,899 SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE 56.50 1.80% 89 4,997 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 18.00 -9.32% 813 15,377 AL RAJHI BANKING & INVESTMENT 51.75 0.98% 2,533 130,446 WAFRAH FOR INDUSTRY & DEVELOP 14.70 -9.26% 644 9,945 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) EKTTITAB HOLDING CO KSCP 35.50 7.58% 133 5 KUWAIT RESORTS COMPANY KPSC 70.00 -6.67% 219 16 COMMERCIAL FACILITIES CO SAKP 172.00 6.17% 49 8 GULF NORTH AFRICA HOLDING CO 28.50 -5.00% 3,670 107 AL AHLEIA INSURANCE CO SAKP 475.00 5.56% 0 0 KUWAIT TELECOMMUNICATIONS CO 820.00 -4.65% 243 204 HEAVY ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES 158.00 5.33% 0 0 UNITED REAL ESTATE COMPANY SAKP 92.00 -4.17% 23 2 KUWAIT INVESTMENT COMPANY SAK 87.00 4.82% 40 3 BOUBYAN INTL INDUSTRIES 25.50 -3.77% 414 11 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) BELTONE FINANCIAL HOLDING SAE 11.78 9.99% 26 297 GOLDEN TEXTILES AND CLOTHES 3.34 -9.73% 4 12 RUBEX FOR PLASTIC MANUFACTUR 5.28 4.35% 3 15 AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT 0.11 -8.33% 14 2 REACAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS SAE 2.37 3.04% 401 935 AMER GROUP HOLDING CO SAE 0.23 -8.00% 28,159 6,758 EL SEWEDY ELECTRIC CO SAE 62.12 2.93% 77 4,715 GULF CANADIAN COMPANY 5.56 -7.49% 9 52 MIDDLE AND WEST DELTA FLOUR 61.83 2.90% 1 62 UNIRAB POLVARA SPINNING 1.69 -7.14% 74 131 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) AAMAL CO QSC 15.18 2.22% 102 1,538 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 82.20 -3.18% 50 4,139 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 87.30 1.87% 164 14,186 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE 43.00 -2.27% 0 3 QATAR FUEL QSC 150.00 1.35% 21 3,095 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 60.10 -2.12% 13 778 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 18.25 1.33% 19 342 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 198.90 -1.78% 17 3,432 QATAR NATIONAL BANK SAQ 159.90 1.27% 159 25,266 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 57.00 -1.72% 82 4,725 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.02 3.59% 3,314 6,579 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.23 3.36% 3,408 4,124 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.31 3.15% 4,766 6,148 ARAMEX PJSC 3.74 3.03% 701 2,584 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.37 3.01% 12,343 16,663 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL INSURANCE CO 2.45 13.95% 16 37 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.37 5.38% 45 60 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 11.00 3.77% 1,613 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.64 2.72% 9,998 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.90 1.60% Close * NATIONAL MEDICAL CARE CO JSC Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , October 19, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 66,011 82.50 -1.8% 7.5% 3,395 74,701 91.50 59.50 15 1.5 6.7% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 45,584 19.25 -0.3% 19.6% 1,008 5,282 20.20 14.90 19 3.8 4.2% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 36,876 159.90 1.3% 9.6% 159 6,983 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 28,271 53.00 -0.5% -22.3% 459 6,489 69.75 51.00 13 1.8 7.5% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 22,429 51.75 1.0% -0.5% 2,533 34,962 62.75 44.70 11 1.7 2.9% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 18,669 16.80 0.3% 6.7% 1,062 4,759 21.80 12.40 45 1.2 4.2% 7 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,962 108.10 0.6% -2.7% 75 2,216 126.50 88.00 16 2.0 4.6% 8 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 17,816 33.40 -0.9% -34.5% 472 4,206 55.25 32.00 7 1.1 4.6% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,272 18.40 -0.5% -9.4% 2,165 10,845 21.25 16.05 15 1.8 1.6% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 13,478 11.00 3.8% -13.0% 1,613 4,832 13.90 9.90 9 1.4 9.1% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 13,386 54.00 -2.7% -2.7% 191 2,748 68.75 40.80 0 5.4 0.0% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 12,672 6.50 0.9% 14.2% 10,002 17,702 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.3% 13 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,472 17.12 0.7% 7.7% 575 2,704 20.24 12.10 26 1.6 2.9% 14 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,258 8.10 0.0% 9.5% 113 250 9.00 6.25 7 0.8 4.9% 15 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,949 56.00 0.4% -4.6% 180 2,687 66.00 40.88 22 3.5 1.5% 16 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 11,930 8.41 0.2% 5.7% 682 1,562 10.35 6.86 9 1.0 5.4% 17 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,625 10.75 0.5% -31.5% 159 456 21.20 9.80 64 1.5 4.7% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,609 570.00 0.0% -23.3% 4,741 8,939 799.36 550.00 11 1.0 4.9% 19 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 10,347 33.20 -1.8% 0.0% 1,043 9,234 43.20 25.70 103 1.4 0.0% 20 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,355 2.64 1.5% -4.3% 1,108 797 3.25 2.02 19 2.3 3.8% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,324 6.12 0.5% -7.1% 1,732 2,887 7.90 5.20 7 1.1 7.4% 22 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,674 98.60 0.3% 31.5% 94 2,541 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.0% 23 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 8,535 16.00 -2.1% -31.5% 689 2,939 23.90 15.90 6 0.8 5.6% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 7,963 460.00 -1.1% -6.3% 1,505 2,290 545.45 395.45 13 1.3 3.4% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm AE 7,842 6.30 0.0% 23.5% 226 387 6.99 4.89 15 3.7 6.8% 26 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,199 5.35 1.9% -5.2% 4,909 7,151 6.29 4.51 6 1.0 7.7% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,199 34.95 -0.1% -7.0% 623 5,980 44.10 28.60 12 2.2 5.0% 28 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,001 8.75 -2.8% -29.4% 1,486 3,467 13.70 8.55 6 0.7 8.0% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 6,973 62.75 -4.2% -24.2% 236 3,947 93.75 58.00 17 4.1 9.6% 30 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 6,856 45.70 -0.4% 40.6% 190 2,317 50.50 23.80 14 1.7 4.4% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 475,537 4.6% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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