MENA Market Report - 18 October

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1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 18, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the session on a negative note, second consecutive trading session of weakness as subdued corporate earnin gs and bearish sentiments across the global markets weighed on investors. For the region, seven out of the eight indexes closed in red, while Qatar was the only market to record gains of 0.6% for the day helping the index to turn positive for the week. Abu Dhabi and Egypt were the worst performers for the day as both of them recorded losses of 2.2% each. Abu Dhabi has remained under pressure for the past two weeks but the day's losses were mostly on the back of decline in FGB for the day. Dubai was also down by 0.9% for the day, which was dragged lower by broad based selling on the back of weakness seen across the region. Egypt was also under pressure for the second consecutive day as it lost 3.1%, however the performance for the month remains positive with gains of 4.6%, the only index to remain in green. Kuwait was down by 0.4% for the day, which was dragged lower by National Bank of Kuwait after reporting 6.4% increase in Q3 earnings, which was inline with estimates. Oman and Bahrain ended on the losing side as it was down by 1.2% and 0.3% respectively for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.3% each for the day. European markets al so closed in red as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were all up by 0.2%, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Headlines (WW) Weak utilities demand restrains US industrial production (GCC) GCC governments’ financing needs to cross USD 560 billion by 2019 (WW) Inflation set to rise as UK economy faces slowdown (GCC) GCC economic growth to hover around 2% (WW) Chinese economy expected to slow down to 6.5% in 2017 (SA) Saudi July imports plunge 32.7%, non-oil exports shrink (WW) Honda Restarts China Expansion Plans With New Wuhan Factory (WW) Corporate Japan unimpressed with BOJ's latest attempt to spur growth (AE) UAE to lend Serbia USD 1 billion to plug deficit, refinance loans (WW) Creeping signs of deflation overshadow BOJ's optimism on economy (AE) Dubai's Emirates NBD Q3 net profit narrowly misses estimates (WW) Japan's finance watchdog urges banks to lend more to potential companies (AE) Office rentals remain flat throughout Q3 2016 (WW) Nigeria expects 22% jump in oil output by end-December (EG) Egypt to gather additional USD 6 billion required for IMF deal (CMD) Gold steady on weaker dollar, firmer stocks cap gains (EG) Egypt foreign trade with EU hits EUR 12.8 billion in 6 months (CMD) US oil settles at USD 49.94 a barrel, down 41 cents, or 0.81% (QA) Qatar September inflation down to 2.6% as food prices drop (FX) Dollar Extends Its Retreat From Seven-Month High as Kiwi Surges (QA) Qatar's CPI inflation edges up in September (FX) Pound sterling falls to six-year low against the euro (JO) Jordan, Bosnia explore economic, investment ties (FI) Treasury Long Bond’s October Drubbing Approaches 4% Before CPI (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) UAE to see greatest impact in GCC of weaker sterling MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,272.37 -0.9% -1.9% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,220.44 -2.2% -2.9% -5.8% 3.9% ˅ ˄ ˄ -5.7% -2.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,564.67 -1.2% -2.3% -1.0% -19.5% ˅ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,287.11 Egypt (EGX30) 8,243.32 -0.4% -0.8% -2.1% -5.8% ˅ ˅ ˄ -2.2% -3.1% 4.6% 17.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,425.89 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,137.52 0.6% 0.3% -0.1% -0.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ -0.3% -0.6% -1.1% -6.4% ˄ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,581.11 -1.2% -1.4% -2.5% 3.2% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 141 254 288 65 93 101 78,617 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 42 70 78 30 38 44 113,952 Saudi (SASEIDX) 148 180 228 584 795 1,041 355,398 Index Kuwait (KWSE) 77 62 90 46 27 31 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 339 198 195 115 86 97 25,907 Qatar (DSM) 4 7 7 48 84 72 130,180 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 2 2 0 1 1 17,528 Oman (MSM30) 48 18 19 17 9 10 16,751 * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 18, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 9.3 10.5 11.3 11.1 386.2 10.6 8.3 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 6.5% 6.0% 6% Current 489.3 13.3 12 Previous 600 5.0% 9% 3.9% 4% 17.7% 18% 5.3% 3.6% 2.3% 3.9% 0.0% -2.0% -9% 2% 3.2% 0% -5.8% -6.4% -18% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -19.5% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 18, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) MARKA PJSC 1.08 -6.90% 2,188 2,451 18 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 1.95 -2.50% 3,424 6,763 8 19 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 6.44 -2.42% 14,137 92,176 1.15% 746 1,305 ARAMEX PJSC 3.63 -2.42% 194 715 1.08% 17,653 8,253 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 0.87 -1.91% 3,167 2,786 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.82 2.50% 1,709 1,385 NATIONAL BANK OF UMM AL QAIWAI 2.85 -8.06% 35 105 ABU DHABI NATIONAL INSURANCE CO 2.15 2.38% 44 94 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 10.60 -4.93% 600 6,523 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.50 2.04% 541 268 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.76 -3.80% 1,342 1,040 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.20 0.46% 1,287 2,825 UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.10 -3.51% 100 112 EMIRATES TELECOMMUNICATIONS 19.30 -2.03% 1,672 32,597 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.82 4.83% 133 367 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.53 2.72% 35 DUBAI NATIONAL INSURANCE 2.56 2.40% NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.76 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.47 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) TRADE UNION COOP INSURANCE CO 10.65 9.23% 1,331 13,581 SALAMA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 8.50 -8.60% 3,641 32,405 TAKWEEN ADVANCED INDUSTRIES 12.00 3.45% 1,507 17,788 UNITED INTL TRANSPORTATION CO 24.40 -5.79% 475 11,947 RED SEA HOUSING SERVICES CO SJSC 24.50 3.38% 32 762 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL EXPORT CO SJSC 23.25 -4.91% 551 13,131 HALWANI BROTHERS CO JSC 50.75 3.36% 47 2,341 ASEER TRADING TOURISM 13.25 -4.68% 257 3,492 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 7.00 2.94% 3,070 21,183 UMM AL QURA CEMENT CO SJSC 13.30 -4.66% 1,349 18,383 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 61.00 96.77% 0 0 FIRST DUBAI FOR REAL ESTATE 50.00 -9.09% 213 11 Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY SANAM REAL ESTATE COMPANY KSCP Egypt Top Losers Top Losers 30.00 9.09% 0 0 GULF NORTH AFRICA HOLDING CO 30.00 -7.69% 1,462 46 1600.00 6.67% 13 20 NATIONAL INTL HOLDING CO KSCP 50.00 -7.41% 143 7 UNITED REAL ESTATE COMPANY SAKP 96.00 5.49% 0 0 NATIONAL INVESTMENTS CO KSCP 102.00 -7.27% 1,560 165 SHUAIBA INDUSTRIAL COMPANY KPSC 250.00 4.17% 6 1 SOKOUK HOLDING CO KSCP 27.00 -6.90% 1,252 35 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 9.19 6.74% 1 10 36.12 -12.98% 123 4,761 ORASCOM TELECOM MEDIA 0.57 3.64% 88,662 49,651 GULF CANADIAN COMPANY 6.01 -9.08% 34 217 VODAFONE EGYPT TELECOMM CO 68.12 2.85% 0 29 SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 20.57 -8.01% 3 64 EGYPT KUWAIT HOLDING CO SAE 0.40 2.56% 1,356 536 PORTO GROUP HOLDING SAE 0.23 -8.00% 34,063 8,175 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS 11.00 2.33% 27 298 MARSA MARSA ALAM 0.70 -7.89% 99 72 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 58.00 4.32% 283 16,047 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 80.00 -2.44% 16 1,305 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 61.40 1.99% 16 959 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 85.70 -1.38% 12 1,000 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 78.70 1.94% 1 116 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 34.45 -1.01% 50 1,740 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 42.00 1.82% 4 160 AAMAL CO QSC 14.85 -1.00% 1 17 QATAR NATIONAL BANK SAQ 157.90 1.54% 179 28,010 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 19.70 -0.56% 7 133 HUMAN SOFT HOLDING COMPANY EL NILE COMPANY FOR PHARMA Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers ALEXANDRIA MINERAL OILS CO SAE Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , October 18, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 67,186 84.00 -0.6% 9.4% 2,935 65,747 91.50 59.50 15 1.6 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 45,704 19.30 -2.0% 19.9% 1,672 8,785 20.20 14.90 19 3.8 4.1% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 36,412 157.90 1.5% 8.3% 179 7,752 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 28,394 53.25 -0.5% -22.0% 189 2,678 69.75 51.00 13 1.8 7.5% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 22,204 51.25 0.0% -1.4% 2,360 32,257 62.75 44.70 11 1.7 2.9% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 18,607 16.75 0.0% 6.3% 497 2,220 21.80 12.40 45 1.2 4.2% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 17,969 33.70 -0.6% -33.9% 343 3,085 55.25 32.00 7 1.2 4.6% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,862 107.50 0.3% -3.2% 83 2,465 126.70 88.00 16 2.0 4.7% 9 DP World Ltd AE 15,355 18.50 -0.5% -8.9% 171 859 21.31 16.05 15 1.8 1.6% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 13,752 55.50 -2.2% 0.0% 135 1,998 68.75 40.80 0 5.5 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 12,988 10.60 -4.9% -16.2% 600 1,731 13.90 9.90 8 1.4 9.4% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 12,555 6.44 -2.4% 13.2% 14,137 24,790 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.3% 13 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,384 17.00 1.5% 6.9% 531 2,482 20.24 12.10 26 1.5 2.9% 14 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,258 8.10 0.0% 9.5% 113 250 9.03 6.25 6 0.9 4.9% 15 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 11,902 8.39 -1.3% 5.4% 795 1,816 10.35 6.86 9 1.0 5.4% 16 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,891 55.75 0.5% -5.0% 602 8,952 66.00 40.88 22 3.5 1.5% 17 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 10,616 570.00 -1.7% -23.3% 12,310 23,173 799.36 550.00 12 1.0 4.9% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,572 10.70 0.5% -31.8% 38 109 21.20 9.80 64 1.5 4.7% 19 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 10,530 33.80 1.5% 1.8% 908 8,186 43.20 25.70 105 1.4 0.0% 20 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,279 6.09 -1.3% -7.6% 1,333 2,211 7.97 5.20 7 1.1 7.4% 21 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,214 2.60 -1.1% -5.8% 2,751 1,948 3.25 2.02 19 2.2 3.8% 22 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 8,718 16.35 -3.3% -30.0% 468 2,039 23.95 16.10 6 0.8 5.5% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,648 98.30 0.6% 31.1% 109 2,933 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.1% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,055 465.00 0.0% -5.3% 1,812 2,783 545.45 395.45 13 1.4 3.3% 25 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 7,842 6.30 0.2% 23.5% 646 1,108 6.99 4.89 15 3.7 6.8% 26 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,276 65.50 0.4% -20.8% 307 5,363 94.75 58.00 18 4.3 9.2% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,209 35.00 0.4% -6.9% 278 2,671 44.15 28.60 12 2.2 5.0% 28 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,198 9.00 -1.6% -27.4% 852 2,046 13.70 8.95 7 0.7 7.8% 29 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,065 5.25 0.0% -6.9% 4,951 7,078 6.30 4.51 6 1.0 7.8% 30 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 6,884 45.90 -1.7% 41.2% 142 1,740 50.50 23.80 14 1.7 4.4% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 476,528 4.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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