MENA Market Report - 16 July

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Sunday , July 16, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended on a positive note for the fourth consecutive session, which was supported by the dovish comments from the Fed and the rise in oil prices during the week. Further, the second quarter earnings have also supported regional markets as it reinforces the confidence of growth picking up in the region. For the day, five out of the eight indexes closed in green, while two ended in red and one remained unchanged. UAE markets closed on a strong note as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were up by 1.2% and 2.5% respectively for the day, further extending the gains recorded during the week. Abu Dhabi was supported by buying interest in banks’ sector stocks, especially FAB which rose by 3.9% on the back of expectation of growth in the second quarter earnings. Qatar continued to rebound strongly throughout the week as investors bought into beaten down stocks. The index closed up by 2.0% for the day, which is supported by significant increase in trading activity. Egypt closed up by 1.0% for the day, extending the weekly gains. Saudi Arabia closed marginally higher by 0.1% for the day, continuing its positive momentum, in line with regional markets. Kuwait closed marginally lower by 0.1% for the day, while the trend remains positive for the week. Bahrain closed lower by 0.1%, while Oman was down by 0.9% for the day. For the week, the performance of regional markets was positive as all indexes ended in green. Qatar led the regional pack during the week with gains of 6.1%, followed by 4.0% in Dubai and 3.4% in Egypt. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively for the day. European markets closed in red as FTSE and DAX were down by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively, while CAC was unchanged for the day. Asian markets closed on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were all up by 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Headlines (WW) US retail sales fall for a 2nd month as consumers pull back (MENA) FDI key for mining growth in MENA (WW) US deficits to jump $248 bln over next two years due to tax shortfall (GCC) Major mergers and consolidation still elusive for Gulf banking sector (WW) Loan growth, better spreads fail to impress U.S. bank investors (GCC) GCC businesses are still not prepared for VAT (WW) China June fiscal spending growth quickens to 19.1% y/y (SA) Saudi economic reforms may be delayed amid political change (WW) China's export, import growth accelerate in June (SA) Britain Aggressively Courts $2 Trillion Saudi Aramco Listing (WW) UK economy likely to grow by 1.4 per cent this year (SA) Saudi Arabia curbs oil shipments to United States (WW) Japan raises FY 2017 forecasts for consumption (AE) Dubai’s Q2 property sales dim broker expectations (WW) Brazil growth remains on track despite May drop (AE) Property transactions in Dubai 'decline by 23%' (WW) Canada's fund managers target growth stocks as rates rise (AE) Top UAE SMEs report triple digit growth (CMD) Oil up 1 percent, posts weekly gain of 5 percent (EG) IMF approves Egypt second loan payment of $1.25bln (CMD) Gold on track for first weekly gain in three (EG) Egypt FDI rises by 12% to $6.6bln in 9M 2016-17 (FX) Dollar, bond yields dip on inflation data as stocks soar (QA) Sanctions push Qatar inflation up only modestly in June (FX) Sterling inches higher, investors split on BoE rate hike (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,537.42 1.2% 4.0% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,518.07 2.5% 2.8% 4.3% 0.2% ˄ ˅ ˅ 2.1% -0.6% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,313.42 0.1% 1.5% -1.5% 1.4% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,788.48 Egypt (EGX30) 13,822.59 -0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 18.1% ˄ ˅ ˄ 1.0% 3.4% 3.2% 12.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 9,469.93 2.0% 6.1% 4.9% -9.3% ˄ ˅ ˅ 1,317.38 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 7.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,121.38 -0.9% 0.0% 0.1% -11.4% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 279 294 361 141 96 136 82,487 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 82 107 127 69 47 59 134,333 Saudi (SASEIDX) 172 179 184 952 825 895 461,671 Kuwait (KWSE) 50 104 305 30 45 94 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 367 293 298 53 76 83 20,865 Qatar (DSM) 17 12 11 118 80 91 111,248 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 4 4 1 2 2 20,357 Oman (MSM30) 15 14 17 6 6 9 14,161 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Sunday , July 16, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 14.2 12.5 11.1 12 11.4 386.2 8.5 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 Current 489.3 12.5 9.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.9 Qatar Bahrain Oman - - - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 27% 18.1% 6.1% 6% Previous 600 4.9% 18% 5.4% 12.0% 9% 4.4% 4.2% 4% 3.5% 3.0% 7.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0% -0.6% -9% 2% -9.3% -11.4% -18% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Sunday , July 16, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.15 -1.71% 5,489 6,367 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 2.10 -1.41% 463 980 6,257 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECOMM 5.32 -1.30% 278 1,488 29,870 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.39 -0.77% 21,858 8,470 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.38 -0.72% 232 321 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 39 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.48 -9.43% 5,541 2,798 5 11 SHARJAH CEMENT AND INDUSTRIAL 1.03 -4.63% 70 74 5.62% 7,094 11,669 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.94 -2.08% 14,620 13,889 4.55% 1,608 1,086 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.52 -1.89% 4,624 2,428 10.55 3.94% 11,818 122,317 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.74 -1.69% 2,793 4,901 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 13.70 10.48% 13 169 ALUJAIN CORPORATION SJSC 24.40 -4.69% 2,083 52,070 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 48.65 9.94% 2,347 109,024 RAYDAN COMPANY CJSC 21.80 -3.96% 21 456 SAUDI PRINTING AND PACKAGING CO 17.18 7.38% 4,484 74,382 BAAZEEM TRADING COMPANY CJSC 25.00 -3.47% 15 372 TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE INSUR 18.46 6.71% 722 12,909 SOUTHERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO 50.00 -2.34% 122 6,148 ALAHLI TAKAFUL COMPANY SJSC 38.40 5.79% 509 19,029 SAUDI STEEL PIPES CO SJSC 17.00 -2.30% 359 6,175 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 75.00 15.38% 1 0 WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP 77.10 -16.65% 3 0 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY 39.40 9.44% 2 0 ARABI GROUP HOLDINGS KSCP 76.00 -10.59% 94 8 KUWAIT FOUNDRY COMPANY KPSC 280.00 8.53% 16 4 AJIAL REAL ESTATE ENTERTAINMENT 140.00 -10.26% 27 4 METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 92.00 5.75% 137 12 AJWAN GULF REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 80.00 -9.09% 545 46 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISORS 34.70 5.15% 583 20 KUWAIT RESORTS COMPANY KPSC 75.00 -7.98% 50 4 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close DoD % Volume Value ARAB CO FOR LAND RECLAMATION 7.56 9.25% 3 22 EL EBOUR COMPANY FOR REAL 4.69 -9.63% 13 66 ALEXANDRIA MEDICAL SERVICES CO 49.49 8.90% 1 25 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS & BAK 54.02 -7.61% 8 430 MISR REFRIGERATION AND AC 87.18 8.23% 3 277 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 60.73 -6.76% 80 5,058 ORANGE EGYPT FOR TELECOMM 108.10 7.63% 42 4,401 PRIME HOLDING FOR FINANCIAL 4.51 -5.85% 47 216 5.77 6.07% 2 13 ROWAD TOURISM CO SAE 5.18 -5.82% 8 45 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close DoD % Volume Value DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 4.01 4.97% 0 46,337 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.82 4.60% 0 61 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.22 4.27% 5,236 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.23 2.76% 13,577 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.20 2.56% 38,514 45,639 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI AVIATION 2.80 14.75% 15 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.35 5.86% INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING HOLD 1.69 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.69 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers AL MASAKEN INTERNATIONAL REAL CAIRO FOR EDUCATIONAL AFFAIRS Top Gainers Qatar QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 206.00 5.64% 108 21,597 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 73.70 -1.73% 44 3,283 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 8.60 4.88% 7,104 59,674 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 47.00 -1.05% 25 1,203 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 8.60 4.24% 215 1,812 QATAR FUEL QSC 112.00 -0.88% 46 5,216 QATAR NATIONAL BANK SAQ 136.70 4.19% 372 49,772 SALAM INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT 9.22 -0.75% 48 449 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 14.73 3.01% 8 120 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 7.80 -0.64% 89 696 Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters 3
4. MENA Morning Report Sunday , July 16, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,962 101.20 -0.6% 10.6% 3,382 91,272 105.40 76.00 15 1.9 5.9% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 43,096 18.20 2.5% -3.2% 1,651 8,182 20.20 17.10 18 3.5 4.4% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 39,414 73.90 0.0% 0.0% 138 2,713 78.90 51.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 34,345 136.70 4.2% -7.7% 372 13,817 157.27 121.70 10 1.8 2.3% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 31,303 10.55 3.9% 5.6% 11,818 33,947 11.55 8.30 10 1.2 4.3% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 28,687 66.20 1.2% 5.1% 4,084 72,094 71.70 48.60 13 2.1 3.4% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 27,414 51.40 -0.4% 20.7% 348 4,769 58.00 32.00 11 1.7 3.1% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 26,578 23.92 0.1% 6.8% 659 4,203 26.05 14.30 12 1.4 2.9% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,592 22.40 4.2% 27.9% 368 2,247 23.85 15.53 19 2.1 1.7% 10 Almarai Co SJSC SA 18,240 85.50 -0.3% 24.8% 89 2,029 98.30 51.50 34 5.4 1.1% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 17,349 70.00 -1.1% -6.4% 261 4,868 76.00 46.00 75 6.3 0.0% 12 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,621 101.00 2.5% -14.0% 153 4,201 122.00 91.10 19 1.9 0.0% 13 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 15,798 50.70 -0.8% 30.0% 772 10,435 53.80 27.80 840 2.3 0.0% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 15,478 7.94 1.0% 11.4% 7,667 16,574 8.08 6.37 11 1.3 1.9% 15 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,600 25.50 2.0% 4.7% 2,293 15,596 27.10 15.90 10 1.2 3.7% 16 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,391 685.00 0.0% 10.7% 1,053 2,384 723.81 533.33 13 1.3 4.2% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,257 8.10 1.3% -4.6% 25 55 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 18 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,800 27.00 1.9% 8.0% 205 1,475 28.40 16.40 11 1.3 2.6% 19 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,395 32.35 -0.2% 0.0% 226 1,950 33.00 18.00 11 1.3 3.2% 20 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,120 7.15 2.1% 3.6% 2,791 5,433 7.68 5.66 9 1.3 5.6% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,873 9.99 -0.1% -16.4% 48 128 12.95 9.80 69 1.3 5.0% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 9,448 496.00 0.4% 1.0% 1,368 2,242 572.73 400.00 13 1.6 0.0% 23 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 9,055 12.55 2.3% -16.9% 436 1,487 20.24 10.72 15 1.1 4.0% 24 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 8,929 2.52 2.0% -3.8% 1,964 1,347 3.00 2.38 17 2.0 4.0% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,672 10.84 0.6% 0.0% 996 2,881 11.80 8.55 10 0.9 0.0% 26 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,589 42.10 0.8% 0.0% 1,070 12,254 45.40 33.05 15 2.7 0.0% 27 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,576 5.80 0.0% 0.0% 1 1 11.95 1.57 106 4.6 0.0% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,199 94.10 0.5% -7.6% 119 3,048 116.10 88.20 16 1.4 3.7% 29 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,130 54.20 -0.7% 0.4% 135 1,947 61.75 39.90 12 1.9 5.5% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,737 5.75 0.5% 3.2% 19,386 30,350 6.29 5.01 9 1.2 7.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 571,651 3.1% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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