MENA Market Report - 14 November

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 14, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets started the week on a mixed note, despite the selling pressure seen in global markets on Friday and decline in o il prices. The regional markets continue to be dominated by Egypt and Saudi Arabia as both indexes are showing no signs of any pull back. In addition, the indexes and stocks that are part of MSCI's emerging market have remained under significant pressure as it is being impacted by overall sell-off in global markets. Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt appreciated by 2.1% each for the day, continuing the bullish trend from the past two weeks. Saudi Arabia was boosted by two of its biggest telecom operators after a settlement of a two-year arbitration process coupled with continued buying interest in banks. Given the upward trend seen in the broader index, Saudi Arabia might be on the cusp of becoming one of the best performers in the region from being the worst prior to a couple of weeks. Egypt has gained by more than 50% this year, the best performing index in the world. UAE markets continued to remain under pressure as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were down by 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Both indexes are being impacted due to the exposure of foreign funds as well as change in dynamics in the region's largest market. Qatar was also down by 0.9% for the day, extending the monthly losses to 3.0% to become the worst performing index in the region for the year. Kuwait and Oman remained unchanged, while Bahrain was marginally up by 0.1% for the day. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a mixed note as Nikkei and Shanghai were up by 1.8% and 0.4% respectively, while Hang Seng was down by 1.2% for the day. Headlines (WW) UK firms see slower hiring, weak pay growth on Brexit fears (GCC) Once critical, Gulf executives want to do business with Trump (WW) Trump Victory Seen Spurring Foreign Demand for London Property (SA) Tourism sector creates 1.3 million jobs for Saudis (WW) Brexit without transitional deal will damage economy (SA) Saudi consumers will prefer lower priced alternatives (WW) China’s Economy Holds Ground as Housing Curbs Start to Bite (WW) China Oct investment growth quickens; retail sales, factory output disappoint (AE) UAE consumer confidence down on job worries (WW) China Home Sales Value Rose 38% in October From Year Earlier (EG) Egypt nears USD 800 million European aid deal to expand social safety net (WW) Japan third-quarter GDP growth accelerates on exports, domestic outlook weak (EG) Egypt IMF loan to be repaid in 10 yrs, targets higher growth (WW) Smaller deals in focus as big private equity fades in Africa (EG) Egypt targets budget deficit of 8.5-9.5% of GDP for 2017-18 (CMD) Oil prices extend declines on oversupply worries (EG) Cairo Metro to launch USD 1.5 billion tender for new trains early 2017 (CMD) Gold prices gain in early Asia as regional data, Trump policies in focus (EG) Egypt Central Bank says USD 1.4 billion sold to banks since pound floated (FX) Yen weaker ahead of third quarter GDP, China data eyed (QA) Qatar’s planned PPP law seen to support wider economic growth (FX) Dollar climbs along with US yields but Asia shares divided (KW) Inflation jumps in September amid fuel price hike (FI) Bonds Plunge by USD 1 Trillion This Week as Trump Seen Game Changer (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) (AE) Room rates down 6.5% in Dubai hotels MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,232.94 -1.3% -1.3% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,235.68 -1.1% -1.1% -3.0% 2.6% ˅ ˅ ˄ -1.5% -1.7% ˅ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,663.31 2.1% 2.1% 10.8% -3.6% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,481.12 0.0% 0.0% Egypt (EGX30) 10,916.97 2.1% 2.1% 1.5% -2.4% ˄ ˅ ˄ 30.2% 55.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,871.73 -0.9% -0.9% Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,162.26 0.1% 0.1% -3.0% -5.3% ˅ ˅ ˄ 1.2% -4.4% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,416.96 -0.0% -0.0% -1.2% 0.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 670 320 287 231 111 101 76,659 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 327 95 81 102 42 43 111,922 Saudi (SASEIDX) 390 203 213 1,527 831 932 411,675 Kuwait (KWSE) 171 78 87 57 37 33 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 757 217 211 142 68 64 24,637 Qatar (DSM) 8 7 6 74 79 70 124,705 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 7 2 2 3 1 1 17,928 Oman (MSM30) 5 16 16 3 8 8 16,077 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 14, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.9 13.2 12 PB 11.2 10.1 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi 6.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.5% 4.1% 3.4% 4% 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Current 489.3 12.8 8.8 1.2 Previous 600 Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 72% 63% 54% 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% 0% -9% -18% -27% 55.8% 2.6% Dubai 0.2% -1.7% -3.6% -2.4% Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available -5.3% -4.4% Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 14, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.29 -8.51% 11,430 15,430 DUBAI NATIONAL INSURANCE 2.35 -8.20% 25 63 8,175 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.98 -4.35% 4,118 8,339 33,996 16,131 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 1.94 -3.48% 10,197 20,139 143 845 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 6.50 -2.99% 10,078 66,517 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 1.86 14.81% 32 56 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.88 -8.33% 117 107 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.85 6.25% 22,512 18,572 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING 1.51 -7.93% 57 90 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 1.07 4.90% 229,776 240,116 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.49 -4.23% 8,667 22,058 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 6.24 4.00% 604 3,698 NATIONAL BANK OF ABU DHABI PJSC 8.66 -2.48% 315 2,759 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.53 3.92% 47,613 24,759 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.76 -2.22% 569 1,014 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI PAPER MANUFACTURING CO 9.65 10.29% 13,652 125,594 BASIC CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES CO SJSC 25.20 -9.68% 4,169 110,696 SAUDI PRINTING AND PACKAGING CO 15.50 9.93% 2,175 32,184 AL BABTAIN POWER AND TELECOM 27.50 -3.51% 756 21,182 UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT 31.10 9.89% 781 23,189 ALMARAI CO SJSC 60.00 -1.23% 416 25,110 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 25.20 9.80% 598 14,399 ABDULLAH AL OTHAIM MARKETS CO 84.50 -1.17% 293 24,908 SAUDI REAL ESTATE CO SJSC 20.30 9.73% 927 17,979 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM 10.50 -0.47% 3,507 36,906 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 31.50 8.62% 0 0 JEERAN HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 53.00 -8.62% 29 2 CREDIT RATING AND COLLECTION 32.50 8.33% 3 0 AL MUDON INTERNATIONAL REAL 30.50 -7.58% 7,202 229 AL DEERA HOLDING CO KPSC 36.50 7.35% 525 18 KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 52.00 -7.14% 5,345 289 AL AMAN INVESTMENT COMPANY 52.00 6.12% 4,427 224 AL SAFAT ENERGY HOLDING CO KPSC 28.50 -6.56% 241 7 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 186.00 5.68% 10 2 SAFAT GLOBAL HOLDING CO 37.00 -6.33% 0 0 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 52.99 18.33% 261 12,761 SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 21.13 -5.54% 2 36 ARABIAN FOOD INDUSTRIES CO SAE 8.51 17.70% 2,166 17,049 EL NILE COMPANY FOR PHARMA 8.77 -3.63% 11 96 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 10.02 9.87% 13 128 UNION NATIONAL BANK EGYPT SAE 3.86 -3.26% 41 160 AJWA FOR FOOD INDUSTRIES CO 2.02 9.78% 3,955 7,633 NORTH CAIRO FLOUR MILLS CO SAE 13.20 -3.23% 35 472 ALEXANDRIA NATIONAL COMPANY 7.90 9.57% 4 32 UPPER EGYPT FLOUR MILLS SAE 78.00 -2.50% 0 32 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 89.40 2.88% 4 393 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 55.20 -3.50% 630 35,399 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.49 1.94% 5 105 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 61.10 -2.71% 54 3,329 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 77.00 0.92% 1 50 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 9.11 -2.67% 290 2,679 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 19.17 0.63% 29 560 AAMAL CO QSC 13.06 -2.54% 5 63 MASRAF AL RAYAN QSC 33.80 0.30% 205 6,925 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 20.72 -2.31% 1 19 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.54 6.36% 145 75 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 0.97 4.64% 235,905 223,756 ARAMEX PJSC 3.93 4.24% 2,123 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.48 3.21% EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECOMM 5.94 1.54% Close * UNION INSURANCE CO PSC Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Egypt ALEXANDRIA MINERAL OILS CO SAE Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , November 14, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 68,817 86.00 -0.3% 12.1% 3,671 84,184 91.00 59.50 16 1.6 6.4% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,032 17.75 -1.4% 10.2% 1,185 5,725 20.20 14.95 17 3.6 4.5% 3 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 35,475 66.50 2.7% -2.6% 2,751 48,777 69.75 51.00 16 2.2 6.0% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 35,288 153.00 0.0% 4.9% 129 5,410 169.80 122.50 11 1.7 1.6% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,415 63.25 0.8% 21.6% 2,786 46,981 64.00 44.70 13 2.1 2.4% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 22,512 42.20 0.0% -17.3% 792 8,913 54.25 32.00 9 1.4 3.7% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,671 18.60 0.0% 18.1% 1,714 8,502 21.80 12.40 25 1.2 3.8% 8 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 17,539 70.75 2.2% 27.5% 3,030 57,159 71.50 40.80 113 6.5 0.0% 9 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,801 101.10 -1.8% -9.0% 107 2,969 119.90 88.00 18 1.8 4.9% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 14,520 11.85 -0.8% -6.3% 1,563 5,042 13.50 9.90 9 1.5 8.4% 11 DP World Ltd AE 13,778 16.60 -2.4% -18.2% 170 770 20.30 16.05 14 1.6 1.8% 12 Almarai Co SJSC SA 12,803 60.00 -1.2% 2.2% 416 6,653 66.00 40.88 24 3.7 1.4% 13 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 12,672 6.50 -3.0% 14.2% 10,078 17,837 7.46 4.22 10 1.2 2.3% 14 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,436 39.90 0.5% 20.2% 1,393 14,821 43.20 25.70 123 1.7 0.0% 15 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,285 8.66 -2.5% 8.8% 315 742 10.35 6.86 10 1.0 5.2% 16 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 12,270 23.00 3.6% -1.5% 3,020 18,522 23.55 15.90 9 1.1 3.9% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 11,652 7.70 -1.3% 4.1% 286 599 8.89 6.25 6 0.8 5.2% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,539 620.00 1.6% -16.6% 4,114 8,406 790.06 550.00 12 1.1 4.5% 19 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,257 15.45 -2.2% -2.8% 980 4,157 20.24 12.10 24 1.4 3.2% 20 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,577 10.70 2.9% -31.8% 637 1,817 21.20 9.80 78 1.5 4.7% 21 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 9,102 22.75 5.8% -8.1% 820 4,975 28.40 16.40 8 1.1 3.3% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 8,930 2.52 -0.8% -8.7% 1,678 1,151 3.10 2.02 18 2.2 4.0% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 8,837 5.80 -0.3% -12.0% 1,848 2,918 7.36 5.20 7 1.0 7.8% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,828 510.00 0.0% 3.9% 7,219 12,136 536.36 395.45 13 1.5 3.0% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,682 10.85 3.8% -12.5% 2,944 8,516 12.75 8.55 8 0.9 6.5% 26 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,646 26.90 5.5% -3.9% 3,121 22,385 28.30 18.00 8 1.1 3.9% 27 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,359 95.00 0.0% 26.7% 499 13,028 107.00 60.00 14 1.3 3.2% 28 Safat Global Holding Co KW 8,156 37.00 -6.3% 0.0% 0 0 49.50 37.00 0 0.0 0.0% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,780 70.00 1.8% -15.4% 132 2,459 88.25 58.00 25 4.4 8.6% 30 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 7,394 5.94 1.5% 16.5% 143 232 6.99 4.89 15 3.5 7.2% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 507,050 4.2% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. Moreover, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent. Copyright © 2015 Al Masah Capital Management Limited 4