MENA Market Report - 13 February

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , February 13, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets started the week on a slightly positive note, however the trading activity remains range bound as regional investors lack the conviction to buy at current levels. Having said that, global markets, especially US have continued its upward trajectory after President Trump announced to unveil new tax plan soon, which should boost investments and economic activity. For the day, five out of the eight indexes closed in green, while one ended in red and two remained unchanged. Saudi Arabia witnessed return of buyers after a few quiet sessions in the previous week. The index was up by 0.8% for the day, but still remains in the negative territory for the year, the only index in the region. UAE markets closed mostly positive as Dubai was up by 0.5%, while Abu Dhabi was flat for the day. Kuwait closed up by 0.8% for the day after correcting by around 4.0% in the previous week. The sharp rally in the previous month might have induced left out feeling among many investors, which might result in impulsive buying at current levels. Egypt was the worst performer as it was down by 1.5% for the day. Qatar closed up by 0.3% for the day, while Oman closed flat. Bahrain closed up by 0.2% for the day, gradual buying activity since the start of 2017 has pushed the annual gains to 7.3% to become the second best performing index in the region. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were up by 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Headlines (WW) Global economy weathers new US administration’s challenges (GCC) Six Gulf nations aiming for simultaneous VAT adoption in January (WW) China Said to Assess Impact of Possible Punitive U.S. Tariffs (SA) Saudi boosted by oil, other bourses steady (WW) China's January Exports Rose 7.9% in Dollar Terms (AE) Positive year ahead for Dubai’s construction sector (WW) 'Significant uncertainty' about fiscal policy under Trump (AE) UAE plans 5% VAT across the board-official (WW) China Exports Surge Ahead of Trade Friction Risk With Trump (AE) UAE says expects higher compliance with OPEC, non-OPEC deal (WW) Economic 'hat-trick' sees strong end to 2016 for UK (AE) Positive year ahead for Dubai's construction sector (WW) UK lawmakers urge more reporting rules for large private firms (AE) Rising rents push tenants to move into Dubai’s outskirt communities (WW) Europe starts to grow at long last but Trump could still spoil party (QA) Qatar's new transit visa scheme a boon for hospitality sector (WW) Robust China trade data a boon for Asia as protectionist risks loom (EG) Egyptians ditch imports and buy local as pound sinks (WW) Swiss voters set to reject corporate tax overhaul plan (EG) Egypt shows early signs of economic turnaround (WW) Banks Take Bigger Role in Latin American Fight Against Tax Evasion (EG) Egypt risks middle class ire as currency falls, inflation soars (CMD) Oil overhang points to need for extended OPEC output cuts (EG) Egyptians ditch imports and buy local as pound sinks (FX) China's Forex reserve plunges below $3 trillion, lowest in almost 6 years (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,702.16 0.5% 0.5% 1.6% 4.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,570.47 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,021.57 0.8% 0.8% -1.1% -2.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,637.30 0.8% 0.8% -2.9% 15.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,922.44 -1.5% -1.5% 2.0% 4.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,663.49 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 2.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,309.31 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 7.3% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,818.60 -0.0% -0.0% 0.7% 0.6% ˄ ˄ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 442 745 531 177 262 186 85,829 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 148 198 145 47 74 58 119,861 Saudi (SASEIDX) 186 293 248 963 1,334 1,085 434,094 Kuwait (KWSE) 417 365 222 139 107 72 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 183 464 335 47 94 76 20,708 Qatar (DSM) 6 8 8 51 65 72 134,166 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 4 4 3 3 3 2 20,232 Oman (MSM30) 16 15 16 10 9 9 17,229 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , February 13, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.9 12.7 11.2 12 PB Previous 489.3 13.2 11.6 9.6 386.2 8.9 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 Current 600 1.3 2.3 1.6 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 5.5% 6% 4.6% 4.1% 9% 3.8% 4% 14.5% 18% 5.1% 6.2% 4.3% 0.5% 3.2% 7.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0% 2.1% 2% -3.3% -9% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -18% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , February 13, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 2.60 -3.46% 25 67 5,801 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.27 -3.15% 37,618 48,551 1,078 1,213 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.45 -2.76% 1,414 2,079 3.88% 2,465 0 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.35 -2.22% 18,682 25,507 2.51% 48,223 0 MARKA PJSC 1.55 -1.94% 15,294 23,939 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.68 5.88% 4,286 2,833 RAS AL KHAIMAH POULTRY 3.11 -9.97% 5 17 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.85 4.71% 2,978 2,474 FUJAIRAH CEMENT INDUSTRIES CO 1.22 -9.84% 19 25 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.77 1.30% 33,087 25,314 NATIONAL TAKAFUL CO PJSC 0.63 -9.52% 47 31 ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 3.90 0.77% 2,480 9,634 FINANCE HOUSE PJSC 1.89 -4.76% 10 19 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 13.30 0.75% 680 9,008 DANA GAS PJSC 0.53 -3.77% 4,683 2,531 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 18.80 8.24% 2,341 42,331 SAUDI PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 39.80 -3.02% 511 20,650 LAZURDE FOR JEWELRY CO 25.00 5.60% 2,344 57,035 ETIHAD ATHEEB TELECOMM 3.35 -2.90% 915 3,111 AL RAJHI COMPANY FOR COOP 41.50 5.54% 844 34,115 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 9.05 -2.21% 3,585 32,810 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT 19.90 5.53% 1,245 24,124 TABUK CEMENT CO SJSC 13.30 -1.88% 255 3,430 SAUDI RE FOR COOPERATIVE REINSUR 7.30 5.48% 5,266 37,440 NATIONAL GAS AND INDUSTRIAL 37.60 -1.86% 332 12,599 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 54.00 9.26% 14,096 729 KUWAIT HOTELS CO KPSC 265.00 -10.94% 8 2 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 28.00 8.93% 7,628 205 KUWAIT BUSINESS TOWN REAL ESTAT 51.00 -7.27% 15,722 833 AL MAZAYA HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 122.00 8.20% 7,842 921 AGILITY PUBLIC WAREHOUSING CO 700.00 -7.14% 12,192 8,863 KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 62.00 8.06% 9,024 539 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 79.00 -6.33% 159 13 GULF GLASS MANUFACTURING CO 325.00 7.69% 0 0 SHUAIBA INDUSTRIAL COMPANY KPSC 330.00 -6.06% 9 3 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) UPPER EGYPT FLOUR MILLS SAE 92.86 9.91% 7 585 SHARKIA NATIONAL COMPANY 3.78 -6.88% 6 23 DELTA INSURANCE CO SAE 7.09 9.87% 83 562 MISR CEMENT CO SAE 107.53 -5.88% 16 1,745 AL EZZ CERAMIC AND PORCELAIN CO 6.13 8.97% 555 3,262 ORIENTAL WEAVERS CARPET CO SAE 18.51 -4.70% 493 9,351 GULF CANADIAN COMPANY FOR ARAB 8.22 8.76% 191 1,505 EL NILE COMPANY FOR PHARMA 11.02 -4.36% 31 354 SHARM DREAMS COMPANY 3.61 8.59% 1,344 4,660 ALEXANDRIA MINERAL OILS CO SAE 107.54 -4.27% 262 28,807 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) OOREDOO QSC 104.90 2.96% 24 2,487 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 10.34 -3.29% 12 131 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 27.00 2.41% 108 2,869 COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 32.90 -3.04% 315 10,537 QATAR NAVIGATION QSC 94.10 2.02% 53 4,954 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 21.50 -2.33% 323 7,034 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 57.00 1.58% 9 485 AHLI BANK QSC 36.50 -1.92% 0 5 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 68.00 1.47% 19 1,278 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 9.27 -1.83% 1,345 12,581 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.39 8.63% 69,954 93,373 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.93 4.66% 3,074 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.15 4.35% DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 1.03 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.52 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Saudi Arabia Top Gainers HITS TELECOM HOLDING CO KSCP Egypt Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , February 13, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 77,192 96.50 0.3% 5.5% 2,705 69,602 98.50 64.25 16 1.8 4.1% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,151 17.80 0.3% -5.3% 585 2,835 20.20 16.05 17 3.6 4.5% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,265 146.90 1.3% 0.0% 75 3,009 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 34,530 64.75 -0.4% -10.7% 469 8,092 74.00 51.00 15 2.2 6.2% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 28,164 65.00 0.0% 3.2% 1,753 30,378 67.50 48.60 13 2.1 2.3% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 26,386 23.75 2.2% 6.0% 2,574 16,299 23.95 14.00 47 1.6 0.0% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 21,971 41.20 0.7% -3.3% 362 3,977 46.30 32.00 9 1.4 3.8% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 19,059 114.70 1.1% -2.4% 54 1,698 122.00 94.50 23 2.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 16,791 20.23 1.1% 15.5% 185 1,022 20.36 15.53 17 2.0 1.5% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,665 67.25 0.0% -10.0% 84 1,498 76.00 45.00 82 6.1 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 16,419 13.40 0.8% 4.3% 680 2,480 13.50 10.50 10 1.6 7.5% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,894 7.64 1.3% 7.2% 6,889 14,331 7.79 5.38 12 1.3 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,505 68.00 0.7% -0.7% 79 1,427 70.00 46.13 27 4.1 1.3% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 14,251 9.96 -1.4% -0.3% 295 799 10.80 7.60 11 1.1 4.5% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,311 720.00 0.0% 10.8% 1,691 3,994 750.00 550.00 14 1.3 4.2% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 13,090 8.65 0.0% 1.9% 503 1,184 9.00 7.10 7 0.9 4.6% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,992 41.70 0.5% 6.9% 953 10,600 43.80 27.80 122 1.8 0.0% 18 Kingdom Holding Co SA 11,363 11.50 2.2% -3.8% 1,326 4,066 13.15 9.90 84 1.5 0.0% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,305 21.20 1.9% -12.9% 1,129 6,383 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.2% 20 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 11,153 7.32 -0.9% 6.1% 563 1,122 7.68 5.66 9 1.3 5.5% 21 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,008 15.11 0.1% 0.0% 446 1,852 20.24 14.20 23 1.3 3.3% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,317 600.00 0.0% 11.1% 1,547 3,045 630.00 427.27 15 1.7 0.0% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,501 108.00 3.0% 6.1% 24 714 110.00 81.50 16 1.5 2.8% 24 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,143 2.58 -0.8% -1.5% 735 517 3.10 2.46 18 2.2 3.9% 25 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,799 22.00 3.8% -12.0% 223 1,308 25.90 16.40 8 1.1 3.4% 26 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,639 10.80 0.0% -6.5% 1,602 4,614 11.80 8.55 8 0.9 6.5% 27 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,549 57.00 0.0% 5.6% 238 3,618 59.75 27.10 14 2.0 5.3% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,507 41.30 -0.5% 9.8% 228 2,584 43.35 32.10 15 2.4 4.8% 29 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,424 6.26 1.0% 12.4% 6,009 10,243 6.29 4.90 9 1.3 7.2% 30 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,032 25.00 2.0% -4.2% 261 1,739 27.80 18.00 7 1.1 4.2% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 544,378 3.2% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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