MENA Market Report - 12 April

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 12, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: The MENA markets ended on a subdued note as four out of the eight indexes closed in green, while two in red and two remained unchanged for the day. The rising uncertainty in the global political environment is impacting the sentiments across the global equities, which is also weighing on the regional markets. On a positive note, the rise in oil prices is likely to provide a support to the regional markets as it enables the governments to continue with their expansionary budgets for the year. UAE markets ended on a mixed note as Dubai was up by 1.4%, while Abu Dhabi was down by 0.5% for the day. Dubai has continued the positive trend during the week, which has led to gains of 1.6% from the past four sessions. The performance seen in Abu Dhabi during the session has erased the gains to turn flat for the week but remain in positive territory for the month. Saudi Arabia was the worst performer as the index was down by 1.9% for the day. The index witnessed broad based selling pressure during the session, especially the sell-off seen in the petchems and banking sector stocks. Egypt continued the positive momentum as the index was up by 1.4% for the day, extending the gains to 3.1% during the week and around 20.0% for the year. Kuwait was flat, while Qatar closed marginally up by 0.1% for the day, in line with the sentiments seen in the broader regional markets. Bahrain closed marginally higher by 0.1%, while Oman was flat for the day. International Markets: US markets ended on a negative note as DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ were down by 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively for the day. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, CAC and DAX were down by 0.1%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were all down by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.6% respectively for the day. Headlines (WW) US budget deficit rises in March (ME) Corporate transformations vital to drive radical change in Middle East’s economy (WW) US-China trade threats likely to slow global growth (GCC) Hyperloop connections to boost GCC tourism infrastructure to USD 56bn by 2022 (WW) Atlanta Fed lowers US first quarter GDP growth estimate to 2.0% (SA) Saudi Arabia raises USD 11bn in biggest emerging market bond sale of 2018 (WW) Healthcare, food boost US producer prices in March (AE) Smaller developers in Dubai join hands to save resources (WW) China issues guidelines for development of outbound investment funds (AE) 275,000 register for VAT in UAE; compliance ratio at 98.8% (WW) UK factory output falls for first time in almost a year (EG) Egypt nods to launch EGP 200bn sovereign wealth fund (WW) Japan's Feb machinery orders beat expectations, wholesale prices slow (EG) Egypt to hike fuel prices 35-45% in Q1-18/19 (WW) Bank of France trims first-quarter GDP growth estimate to 0.3% (QA) Qatar-Oman joint investments reach more than QAR 5.5bn (CMD) Oil prices near 2014 highs over warnings of western air strikes against Syria (KW) Kuwait’s money supply inclines 3.4% in February (CMD) Gold hits 1-week peak on dollar weakness, geopolitical concerns (KW) Kuwait mulls law to regulate, develop insurance industry (FX) Dollar trades near 2-week lows as fears of trade wars fade further (OM) Freezones and industrial estates poised to be future income sources for Oman (FX) Sterling hits 2-week high after BoE comments, dollar weakness (OM) Growing trade links to open opportunities for Oman companies (FI) Euro zone yields drop as ECB plays down Nowotny hike comments (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,132.97 1.4% 1.6% 0.8% -7.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,689.74 -0.5% 0.0% 2.3% 6.6% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,802.74 -1.9% -1.9% -0.9% 8.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 4,865.70 0.0% -0.1% -2.7% 0.7% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 17,943.96 1.4% 3.1% 2.8% 19.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,015.15 0.1% 2.5% 5.1% 5.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,288.82 0.1% 0.5% -2.2% -3.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 4,789.63 0.0% -0.2% 0.3% -6.1% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 132 188 232 57 78 100 81,696 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 72 68 75 37 38 37 136,245 Saudi (SASEIDX) 272 176 182 1,566 1,036 988 503,808 Kuwait (KWSE) 61 74 75 16 203 130 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 545 361 353 224 111 97 30,357 Qatar (DSM) 10 11 10 90 85 79 106,337 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 6 5 3 3 3 21,409 Oman (MSM30) 12 20 18 5 13 12 13,386 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 12, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 14.6 8 12.9 11.2 12 PB Current 12.1 11.0 7.7 7.6 4 1.0 1.3 2.6 1.8 148.6 108.8 1.2 - - 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 289.4 251.6 300 89.7 63.2 1.4 0 89.0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi 5.6% 6.0% 4.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4% 2.6% 2% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 19.5% 5.9% 5.3% Kuwait Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Previous 600 Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% 8.0% 5.8% 6.6% 0.7% -3.2% -6.1% -7.0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 12, 2018 Dubai Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL CEMENT CO PSC 3.40 -10.00% 0 65 2,044 TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 1.92 -9.90% 0 2 3,406 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REINS 0.70 -3.30% 194 138 1.21 -1.65% 3,948 4,817 0.47 -1.08% 1,435 671 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AL RAMZ CORPORATION INVESTMENT 1.35 9.63% 0 13 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.26 8.11% 0 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.61 5.59% 2,173 Top Losers EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 5.66 4.77% 9,268 51,263 AIR ARABIA PJSC EMAAR MALLS PJSC 2.11 3.32% 2,948 6,120 MARKA PJSC Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UNION INSURANCE CO PSC 1.32 13.64% 10 12 EMIRATES INSURANCE COMPANY PSC 7.00 -10.00% 435 3,216 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.71 8.45% 69 47 COMMERCIAL BANK INTERNATIONAL 0.72 -9.72% 1 0 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.98 7.14% 34,353 32,544 RAS AL KHAIMAH FOR WHITE CEMENT 0.94 -9.57% 26 26 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 6.93 3.61% 5,183 35,296 AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO 0.95 -9.47% 2 2 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 3.71 2.70% 2,931 10,733 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING 0.50 -8.00% 19 10 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL KATHIRI HOLDING CO 25.30 10.67% 13 309 ALINMA TOKIO MARINE CO SJSC 25.00 -8.00% 336 8,767 UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT 36.30 0.96% 507 18,327 TRADE UNION COOPERATIVE INS 22.60 -6.64% 483 11,311 HALWANI BROTHERS CO JSC 55.50 0.90% 79 4,382 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CO 9.52 -6.51% 482 4,749 SAUDI BRITISH BANK SJSC 29.85 0.34% 89 2,650 SAUDI PAPER MANUFACTURING CO 8.92 -6.28% 3,265 30,096 EASTERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO SJSC 25.75 0.19% 84 2,153 GULF GENERAL COOPERATIVE INS 17.10 -6.20% 401 7,080 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) WETHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 26.10 9.96% 1 0 EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 23.00 -34.78% 0 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 23.10 9.96% 0 0 REAL ESTATE TRADE CENTERS CO 27.00 -11.48% 7 0 TAMKEEN HOLDING CO 17.90 -10.61% 3 0 AL MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 38.20 -9.95% 8 0 AL AHLEIA INSURANCE CO SAKP 486.00 -9.88% 0 0 Close DoD % Volume Value Top Gainers Top Losers HEAVY ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES 240.00 9.58% 2,465 566 FUTURE KID ENTERTAINMENT AND RE 99.50 9.55% 5 0 NATIONAL INVESTMENTS CO KSCP 98.00 6.12% 1,652 157 Close DoD % Volume Value MEDINET NASR FOR HOUSING DEVEL 12.78 12.60% 0 167,240 EL EBOUR COMPANY FOR REAL EST 9.65 -8.70% 56 566 UNIVERSAL CO FOR PACKAGING MAT 28.28 8.95% 47 1,271 INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING ENT 10.96 -8.30% 97 1,117 SIXTH OF OCTOBER DEVELOPMENT 26.55 8.89% 3,641 92,730 CAIRO FOR HOUSING AND DEV 17.41 -8.16% 8 138 MISR NATIONAL STEEL SAE 57.60 8.06% 8 422 KAHIRA PHARMACEUTICALS & CHEM 54.48 -6.06% 2 123 ZAHRAA MAADI INVESTMENT & DEV 21.01 7.62% 3 55 NORTH AFRICA CO FOR REAL ESTATE 1.08 -5.56% 208 232 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) COMMERCIAL BANK PSQC 33.99 2.53% 355 11,903 QATAR CINEMA AND FILM DIST 27.55 -9.26% 0 8 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 20.10 2.44% 493 9,783 AHLI BANK QSC 31.80 -4.69% 4 133 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 48.50 1.44% 3 147 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 12.51 -2.48% 0 5 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 7.22 1.25% 1 7 INVESTMENT HOLDING GROUP 5.72 -1.92% 201 1,160 BARWA REAL ESTATE COMPANY QPSC 33.53 1.04% 337 11,229 UNITED DEVELOPMENT COMPANY 14.64 -1.91% 479 7,077 Top Gainers Egypt DoD % Close * Top Gainers Qatar Close * Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 12, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 93,923 117.40 -0.8% 15.3% 8,071 252,693 120.00 94.25 19 2.1 3.6% 2 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 44,055 82.60 -1.7% 20.4% 142 3,123 85.00 65.10 16 2.7 4.8% 3 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 40,848 17.25 -0.6% -1.4% 286 1,343 18.85 15.75 17 3.4 4.6% 4 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 36,942 12.45 -1.6% 21.5% 767 2,601 12.65 10.05 14 1.3 5.6% 5 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 36,537 143.99 0.6% 14.3% 299 11,832 150.50 115.01 10 1.9 4.2% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 34,668 65.00 -1.7% 18.0% 1,105 19,149 66.30 37.00 13 2.1 2.6% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 32,978 76.10 -1.6% 17.8% 4,393 89,143 79.90 61.00 14 2.2 5.3% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 22,756 20.48 -1.5% -2.8% 1,520 8,302 26.05 19.76 12 1.2 3.4% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,999 22.89 -0.5% -8.4% 273 1,701 27.06 20.30 16 1.8 1.8% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,996 114.29 -0.2% 17.8% 702 22,046 115.00 85.00 21 2.0 4.4% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,390 52.60 -1.9% 1.0% 921 12,923 57.10 39.50 86 2.4 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 15,663 10.35 1.0% 26.2% 171 483 11.00 7.95 7 1.0 3.9% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,200 57.00 -0.3% 5.9% 637 9,677 78.64 50.00 27 3.8 1.3% 14 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,185 732.00 0.4% 5.6% 7,290 17,817 761.90 619.05 15 1.4 3.7% 15 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 14,320 26.85 -1.1% 14.2% 2,036 14,581 27.55 20.50 11 1.2 5.6% 16 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,047 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.20 4.90 73 7.1 0.0% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 11,980 29.95 0.3% 10.9% 89 710 32.50 21.25 11 1.3 4.7% 18 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 11,822 47.70 -2.1% -19.3% 319 4,063 75.60 47.50 330 4.6 0.0% 19 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,561 5.93 4.8% -9.3% 9,268 14,965 8.43 5.52 7 0.9 0.0% 20 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,072 13.84 -0.1% 10.0% 640 2,361 14.20 10.10 11 1.1 5.3% 21 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,011 520.00 0.2% -0.7% 4,308 7,479 590.91 424.55 18 1.7 2.7% 22 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,740 71.60 -1.0% 21.4% 200 3,825 74.50 52.00 17 2.4 4.5% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,163 7.18 3.6% 5.6% 5,183 10,134 7.50 6.50 9 1.2 5.8% 24 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,322 29.00 0.0% 1.8% 430 3,325 33.40 25.20 10 1.1 4.8% 25 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 8,781 2.58 -0.4% 0.0% 882 620 2.90 2.50 18 11.3 0.0% 26 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,776 8.88 -1.4% -0.2% 375 889 11.30 7.90 50 1.0 5.6% 27 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,208 20.52 -4.4% 7.1% 28,085 153,686 21.58 14.00 15 1.5 3.9% 28 Arab National Bank SA 7,734 29.00 -1.7% 17.1% 101 784 29.90 19.15 10 1.2 4.1% 29 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,725 2.18 3.3% 2.3% 2,948 1,750 2.70 2.00 14 1.7 4.6% 30 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,608 10.44 -0.2% -13.6% 191 547 16.30 6.19 16 0.9 0.0% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 608,009 3.7% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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