MENA Market Report - 04 December

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , December 04, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets continued to remain subdued as investors are cautious due to the ongoing geopolitical environment. The stability seen in the oil prices during the past two to three months has not helped the regional markets much, however, it is an appropriate time for investors to accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals. The month of November witnessed mixed sentiments as Dubai was the worst performer with losses of 5.9%, followed by 5.5% in Qatar and 4.9% in Kuwait, while Oman was the best performer with gains of 2.0%, followed by 1.7% in Egypt. The start of December has been good for the regional markets as four out of the eight indexes closed in green, while one in red and three were closed for the day. Saudi Arabia was the best performing index as it was up by 1.2% for the day, which was supported by hopes raised by Yemen that the war of the past three years is likely to end soon. The index was supported by broad based buying as there were 170 gainers and 7 decliners for the day. Egypt also continued its positive trend as the index appreciated by 0.9% for the day, extending the annual gains to 18.1%, the best in the region. Qatar also closed higher by 0.6% for the day, which was helped by the positive sentiments seen in the region. Kuwait closed higher by 0.3%, while Bahrain was down by 0.3% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a negative note as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all down by 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.2% respectively for the day. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.4%, 1.3% and 1.0% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a slightly positive note as Hang Seng and Shanghai are up by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively, while Nikkei is down by 0.1%. Headlines (WW) U.S. formally opposes China market economy status at WTO (ME) Mideast funds positive on Saudi Arabia after corruption crackdown (WW) China Nov factory growth slows to 5-month low, confidence sags (ME) MENA M&A deal value up 23% in Q3 2017 (WW) Creative sectors worth GBP 92bn to UK economy (GCC) GCC summit to go ahead despite Qatar row (WW) ECB to shut the door on easy money by end-2018 (SA) Saudi foreign reserves rise in October as budget deficit outlook improves (WW) Eurogroup head warns of complacency as euro zone economy grows (SA) Exports between UAE and Saudi Arabia will be subject to VAT at 5% rate (WW) Japan Nov factory activity growth fastest in over 3 -1/2 years on exports boom (SA) Consumer spending boosting KSA economy, analysts say (WW) India sees growth rebound as businesses adjust to new tax (SA) Saudi Arabia posts greatest gains in prosperity in MENA (WW) Irish manufacturing growth surges to 18-year high (AE) Increased lending activity improves profitability of UAE banks (CMD) Oil prices gain after OPEC extension of production cut (AE) UAE, Mexico advancing investment relations (CMD) Gold dips 1% as strong global markets weigh (AE) UAE construction market exceeds USD 818.2bn (FX) Dollar set for biggest monthly drop since July (QA) Qatar GDP to scale up to USD 208bn in 2022 (FX) Sterling tops USD 1.35 on Brexit deal hopes (OM) Oman faces risks to economic, financial stability (FI) Euro, bond yields slip on tepid European inflation data (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Dubai (DFMGI) Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Closed Closed n.a. n.a. -3.1% ˅ ˅ ˄ Closed Closed n.a. n.a. -5.8% ˅ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,089.33 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% -2.9% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,214.13 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 7.8% ˅ ˅ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 14,713.63 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 18.1% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 7,756.55 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% -25.7% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,280.21 -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 7.4% ˄ ˅ ˅ Closed Closed n.a. n.a. -11.6% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) Closed 241 240 Closed 102 95 80,072 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) Closed 107 107 Closed 50 46 127,833 237 147 148 1,176 806 803 442,850 Kuwait (KWSE) 64 101 85 40 69 63 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 305 416 342 53 79 66 22,084 Qatar (DSM) 8 9 9 34 63 72 87,651 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1 4 3 1 3 2 20,394 Closed 20 17 Closed 13 10 14,350 Index Saudi (SASEIDX) Oman (MSM30) * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** Indicates markets last closed on Wednesday 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , December 04, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 14.0 9.4 10.4 11.0 11.2 386.2 9.5 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.2 1.5 2.2 1.6 - - 1.1 0.8 1.0 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Current 489.3 11.3 12 Previous 600 35% 5.9% 5.6% 7.8% 4.4% 4% 18.1% 21% 5.4% 5.0% 3.7% 3.4% -7% 2% 4.9% 7% -3.1% -5.8% -2.9% -11.6% -21% 0.0% -25.7% 0.0% 0% -35% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , December 04, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Top Gainers Close DoD % Volume Value Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Market Remained Closed Dubai Market Remained Closed Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Kuwait Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Top Losers Market Remained Closed Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SOUTHERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO 47.40 11.01% 103 4,628 MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES CO 162.00 -1.82% 6 988 SAUDI PRINTING AND PACKAGING CO 20.12 10.07% 2,958 56,801 SAVOLA GROUP COMPANY SJSC 41.20 -0.72% 255 10,527 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 61.00 9.91% 499 29,053 BANQUE SAUDI FRANSI SJSC 28.75 -0.52% 324 9,341 MAKKAH CONSTRUCTION AND DEVEL 88.40 9.81% 1,321 111,533 SAUDIA DAIRY AND FOODSTUFF CO 129.40 -0.46% 30 3,947 NAJRAN CEMENT CO SJSC 8.75 9.79% 756 6,318 ARABIA INSURANCE COOPERATIVE CO 17.76 -0.45% 576 10,251 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 24.00 17.50% 0 0 METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 79.90 -18.65% 1 0 KUWAIT AND MIDDLE EAST FINANCIAL 21.50 11.63% 3 0 EQUIPMENT HOLDING COMPANY 36.70 -7.36% 75 3 AFAQ EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CO 90.00 11.00% 3 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 32.00 -6.25% 13 0 UNITED REAL ESTATE COMPANY SAKP 68.20 9.97% 88 6 NATIONAL MOBILE TELECOMM 1144.00 -4.72% 1 1 SALBOOKH TRADING CO KSCP 46.20 8.23% 11 0 AL MADINA FOR FINANCE AND INVEST 38.00 -4.47% 9 0 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value ALEXANDRIA FLOUR MILLS AND BAKER 29.09 9.97% 6 168 ALEXANDRIA CONTAINER AND CARGO 185.41 -9.36% 16 3,066 EGYPTIANS ABROAD FOR INVEST 5.73 9.95% 194 1,059 MOHANDES INSURANCE CO SAE 11.81 -7.87% 2 24 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 28.11 9.71% 28 740 GRAND CAPITAL FOR FINANCIAL 4.35 -7.13% 7 32 EL NASR TRANSFORMERS AND ELECTR 13.25 9.43% 102 1,294 ALEXANDRIA SPINNING & WEAVING 2.28 -6.14% 259 609 NORTH AFRICA CO FOR REAL ESTATE 0.97 9.28% 317 295 MISR NATIONAL STEEL SAE 17.81 -5.84% 2 42 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 13.01 7.61% 5 63 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QPSC 32.40 -5.83% 24 794 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC 8.00 6.25% 641 4,975 INVESTMENT HOLDING GROUP 5.36 -1.49% 1,283 6,931 MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEVEL 6.80 6.18% 384 2,533 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 5.59 -1.43% 2 14 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 15.04 4.72% 263 3,871 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 139.99 -1.41% 7 960 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE & REINS 46.87 4.54% 26 1,177 UNITED DEVELOPMENT COMPANY 12.75 -0.39% 312 3,989 Top Gainers Egypt DoD % Market Remained Closed Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Close * Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , December 04, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,638 100.80 0.2% 10.2% 4,633 124,537 105.40 90.50 16 1.9 6.0% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 38,833 16.40 0.9% -12.8% 3,321 14,831 19.00 15.75 16 3.4 4.9% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 36,692 68.80 0.0% -5.1% 69 1,269 78.90 64.50 14 2.2 5.8% 4 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 29,968 10.10 -1.0% 1.1% 4,852 13,344 11.55 9.21 11 1.1 4.5% 5 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 29,690 117.02 0.0% -21.0% 84 2,690 157.27 115.01 8 1.4 2.7% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 27,733 64.00 0.6% 1.6% 3,919 66,882 71.70 61.00 12 1.9 3.5% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 27,093 50.80 0.2% 19.2% 337 4,566 58.00 37.00 11 1.6 3.1% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 26,710 24.04 -0.2% 7.3% 903 5,789 26.05 19.05 10 1.3 2.9% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,962 24.05 -2.8% 37.4% 381 2,493 24.90 15.53 19 2.0 1.6% 10 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,981 54.50 -0.4% 39.7% 208 3,020 57.00 37.50 190 2.4 0.0% 11 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,826 55.60 -0.9% 1.5% 361 5,349 78.64 51.80 27 4.0 1.3% 12 Industries Qatar QSC QA 14,726 88.61 -0.2% -24.6% 121 2,937 122.00 85.00 21 1.6 4.5% 13 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,718 7.55 -1.2% 5.9% 8,783 18,056 8.95 6.65 9 1.2 2.0% 14 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,672 59.20 -0.5% -20.8% 523 8,264 76.00 58.90 409 5.4 0.0% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 14,161 721.00 0.0% 16.5% 1,085 2,596 800.00 600.00 14 1.3 4.0% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,333 8.15 0.0% -4.0% 574 1,274 9.00 7.81 6 0.8 4.9% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 12,053 22.60 0.0% -7.2% 558 3,362 27.10 19.80 9 1.0 4.2% 18 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,793 564.00 1.6% 14.9% 6,180 11,570 650.00 454.55 17 1.7 2.7% 19 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,780 26.95 -0.2% 7.8% 635 4,564 28.55 20.05 10 1.2 2.6% 20 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 10,350 7.00 0.0% 0.0% 1 2 11.95 1.57 76 5.3 0.0% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,978 7.05 -0.1% 2.2% 2,886 5,541 7.68 6.00 9 1.2 5.7% 22 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 9,504 11.88 -0.5% 2.9% 479 1,518 12.20 10.10 11 0.9 5.5% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,289 28.90 0.2% 10.7% 586 4,520 33.40 22.10 10 1.1 3.6% 24 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 9,060 60.40 2.7% 11.9% 492 7,931 61.75 49.70 15 2.1 5.0% 25 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,114 6.03 -0.3% 0.0% 9,927 16,299 6.29 5.10 8 1.2 0.0% 26 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,113 8.21 -0.5% -31.3% 553 1,210 12.95 7.90 48 1.0 6.1% 27 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,618 2.15 -0.9% -17.9% 5,254 3,076 2.80 2.13 14 1.7 4.7% 28 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 7,208 18.02 -0.2% 19.3% 37,319 179,320 18.46 13.95 15 1.3 2.8% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,089 63.80 2.1% -14.9% 282 4,806 82.00 57.00 25 3.9 3.9% 30 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 7,044 34.19 0.7% -9.1% 137 1,287 45.40 33.32 12 2.0 5.8% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 546,727 3.8% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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