Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 9 June

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 9 June 2017  The FBM KLCI touched a new intraday high of 1,795 points on Tuesday before closing at 1,789 points to register a weekly gain of 0.7%.  Global and regional markets traded on a subdued note ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 13-14 June.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week to assess the U.S. economic outlook for 2H2017. Performance of Key Indices (As at 9 Jun’ 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,789 13,015 % Weekly Change +0.7 +0.9 3,254 +0.4 5,676 10,592 3,158 21,272 6,208 3,210 -1.2 -0.7 +1.7 +0.3 -1.6 -0.7 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Firm sentiment supported by local investors: Underpinned by sustained buying Local support, the FBM KLCI touched a 1-year intraday high of 1,795 points on Tuesday. However, profit-taking activities led the FBM KLCI to close at 1,789 points for a weekly gain of 0.7%. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index rose by 0.9% to close at 13,015 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index closed 0.9% higher over the week. Regional Caution ahead of Fed meeting: Regional markets traded on a subdued note amid caution ahead of the FOMC meeting on 13-14 June. Japan’s TOPIX and the China’s ‘H’ Shares market fell by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively. In South-East Asia, markets generally closed higher with the Philippines and Singapore markets registering weekly gains of 1.0% and 0.4% respectively. Down under, the Australian market registered a weekly loss of 1.9% on the back of declines in financial and resource-based stocks. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Subdued Global Markets Ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve’s Meeting
2. Comments Dow remained resilient despite technology sell-down : The Dow remained fairly stable at above 21,000 points as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates helped lift financial stocks. The Dow closed at a high of 21,272 points for a weekly gain of 0.3%. However, profit-taking activities in technology stocks caused the Nasdaq to decline by 1.6% to close at 6,208 points over the same period. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, closed 0.7% lower for the week amid political uncertainties as the U.K. general election resulted in a hung parliament, where no party has an overall majority. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 9 Jun’ 17 FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI 2 Jun’ 17 % Weekly change +0.9 +0.9 +0.7 17,532 13,015 1,789 17,369 12,894 1,777 South-East Asia Philippines Singapore Thailand Indonesia 7,990 3,254 1,567 5,676 7,908 3,240 1,568 5,742 +1.0 +0.4 -0.1 -1.2 +16.8 +13.0 +1.5 +7.2 North Asia SH Comp (China) MSCI China MSCI FEXJ# Taiwan South Korea Hong Kong China*, H Share TOPIX (Japan) 3,158 7,517 592 10,200 2,382 26,030 10,592 1,592 3,106 7,407 587 10,153 2,372 25,924 10,666 1,612 +1.7 +1.5 +0.8 +0.5 +0.4 +0.4 -0.7 -1.3 +1.8 +25.5 +22.4 +10.2 +17.5 +18.3 +12.7 +4.8 Global Dow Jones 21,272 21,206 +0.3 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,527 7,548 -0.3 MSCI World# 467 469 -0.5 Europe** 3,210 3,234 -0.7 Nasdaq 6,208 6,306 -1.6 Australia 5,678 5,788 -1.9 * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index **STOXX Europe 50 Index #in USD 2. % YTD change +19.1 +8.3 +9.0 +7.6 +5.4 +10.7 +6.6 +15.3 +0.2 Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit firmed by 0.4% to close at RM4.27 against the US$ in tandem with the firming of key currencies against the greenback. On a year-todate basis, the Ringgit appreciated by 5.2% against the greenback. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. Malaysia ’s export growth eased to 20.6% in April from 24.1% in March due to lower exports of petroleum-related products. Similarly, import growth slowed to 24.7% from 39.4% over the same period. The trade surplus widened to RM8.8 billion in April from RM5.4 billion in March. Malaysia’s Export Growth Composition Exports (% YoY) Mar ’17 Apr ’17 Electrical & Electronics +21.4 +22.2 Refined Petroleum +32.7 -15.8 Crude Petroleum +74.1 +65.7 Total +24.1 +20.6 - Industrial production growth eased to 4.2% in April from 4.6% in March on the back of slower electricity and mining output. Fig 1. Malaysia's Industrial Production Index YoY % YoY % 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Industrial Production Index (LHS) Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Electricity Output (RHS) Mining Output (RHS) - Export growth rose to 8.7% in May from 8.0% in April amid higher exports to the U.S. Likewise, import growth gained pace to 14.8% from 11.9% over the same period. The trade surplus widened to US$40.8 billion in May from US$38.0 billion in April. - The inflation rate climbed to 1.5% in May from 1.2% in April due to higher nonfood prices. Taiwan - Export growth eased to 8.4% in May from 9.3% in April on the back of slower exports of information and communication technology (ICT) goods. Similarly, import growth decelerated to 10.1% from 23.4% over the same period. Taiwan’s trade surplus widened to US$3.5 billion in May from US$2.8 billion in April. Australia - Led by slower consumer spending and export growth, Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth moderated from 2.4% in 4Q2016 to 1.7% in 1Q2017. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.6% to close at US$48.15/brl amid an unexpected surge in U.S. crude oil inventories. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices closed 3.8% lower at US$45.83/brl over the same period. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, firmed by 1.2% to close at 440.53 points. China Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF -
4. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.6 6.5 5.2 4.6 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.5 3.4 1.2 2.3 1.7 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 * f=consensus forecast 2018F 6.2 6.5 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.5 0.6 2.5 1.6 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China* Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan* U.S.* Eurozone* IMF forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2017F 2.0 3.3 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.6 2.3 1.6 2018F 2.2 3.3 4.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.8 2.3 1.5 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S. (1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 15.81 8.45 12.80 13.88 15.31 14.81 14.40 19.38 15.97 14.18 10.32 18.72 15.67 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.51 3.57 3.26 1.99 2.98 3.41 3.89 1.56 2.10 2.07 1.59 2.01 3.89 Source: Bloomberg, 9 Jun’ 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. At its 13-14 June meeting this week , the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to lift the Federal Funds funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a target range of 1.00%-1.25%. Investors will be keeping watch on the Fed’s outlook for the U.S. economy in 2H2017 as well as plans to reduce its US$4.5 trillion holdings in government bonds. On the domestic front, a recovery in corporate earnings and improved economic activities in 2017 are expected to continue to underpin market sentiment. As at 9 June 2017, the local market traded above its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.8x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.12% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, traded below its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 13.3x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 9 Jun’ 17 1,789 16.80 3.12% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 2 Jun’ 17 1,777 16.74 3.14% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 9 June 2017 P/E: 16.8x 9 June 2017 P/E: 13.3x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations Despite recent political uncertainties arising from Britain’s hung parliament which indicates tougher negotiations for Britain to exit smoothly from the European Union, global and regional markets have remained fairly well-supported in recent weeks. The generally positive sentiment is attributed to resilient economic data from major economies as well as the pricing-in of the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle by the markets.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 9 June 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market closed on a softer note amid increased expectations of a Federal funds rate hike at the FOMC meeting on 13-14 June. The 10-year UST yield rose by 4 bps to close at 2.20% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields closed mixed with the yield of long-tenured issues remaining unchanged as market participants were cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting. The 10-year MGS yield was sustained at 3.86% over the week. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Resilient corporate bond prices continued to underpin the bond funds’ positive performances over the week. Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Australian Dollar 1.33 +2.0 Japanese Yen 110.4 +1.0 Dollar Index* 97.3 +0.6 Ringgit 4.27 +0.4 Chinese Yuan 6.80 +0.3 Singapore Dollar 1.38 +0.2 Indonesia Rupiah 13,302 +0.05 Euro 0.89 -0.3 Pound Sterling 0.78 -0.8 YTD % change +4.2 +5.8 -4.8 +5.2 +2.2 +4.3 +0.9 +6.0 +3.7 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential inflationary impact of the U.S. administration’s pro-growth economic policies on the global bond market as well as the outlook for U.S. interest rates. At the FOMC meeting on 13-14 June, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the Federal funds rate target range by 25 bps from 0.75%-1.00% to 1.00%-1.25%. - In the Malaysian bond market, market participants will be closely monitoring the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes in 2017, which will be mainly influenced by the U.S. future economic policies and interest rates outlook. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp 9 Jun’ 17 2 Jun’ 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.00 0.97 3 Year 1.48 1.43 3.30 3.29 4.21 4.20 4.47 4.48 5 Year 1.77 1.72 3.55 3.58 4.31 4.31 4.60 4.60 10 Year 2.20 2.16 3.86 3.86 4.68 4.69 4.92 4.92 % change* MARKET BRIEF (in %) +3 +5 +1 +1 -1 +5 -3 +4 -1 - *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 9 Jun’17 2 Jun’17 0.5513 0.4909 0.6807 0.5326 0.6522 0.6210 0.6733 0.9483 0.2725 0.2881 0.2792 0.3057 0.3008 0.3214 0.8215 0.8301 0.2793 0.3426 0.2612 0.2650 0.2852 0.2747 0.2950 0.2783 0.2966 0.2917 0.2742 0.2717 0.2696 0.2792 0.2673 0.5481 0.4877 0.6761 0.5276 0.6476 0.6170 0.6705 0.9416 0.2717 0.2875 0.2776 0.3038 0.2972 0.3200 0.8167 0.8228 0.2776 0.3412 0.2610 0.2638 0.2837 0.2731 0.2919 0.2763 0.2939 0.2885 0.2721 0.2690 0.2682 0.2782 0.2638 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.6 +0.7 +0.7 +0.7 +0.7 +0.6 +0.9 +0.7 +0.7 +0.7 +0.6 +0.6 +0.4 +0.4 +0.7 +0.9 +0.3 +0.7 +0.2 +0.5 +0.6 +0.6 +0.6 +0.6 +1.2 +0.7 +0.4 +0.6 +0.6 +0.4 +0.9 +0.7 +0.6 +0.7 +0.4 +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 +0.5 +0.4 +0.5 +0.3 +0.6 +0.5 +1.1 +0.6 +0.7 +0.6 +0.9 +0.6 +1.1 +0.7 +0.8 +0.4 +1.0 +0.9 +0.5 +0.6 +0.4 +0.6 +1.3 +0.5 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF PBISCF 2 Jun’17 0.8517 0.3407 0.4451 0.2511 0.3691 0.2670 0.3447 0.2821 0.3880 0.2928 0.3008 0.3033 0.3054 0.2699 0.2448 0.2568 0.3121 0.2648 0.2885 0.2821 0.2886 0.2508 0.8476 0.3390 0.4413 0.2493 0.3676 0.2647 0.3448 0.2795 0.3846 0.2907 0.2995 0.3021 0.3028 0.2681 0.2435 0.2561 0.3076 0.2623 0.2843 0.2792 0.2865 0.2504 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.5 +0.9 +0.7 +0.4 +0.9 -0.03 +0.9 +0.9 +0.7 +0.4 +0.4 +0.9 +0.7 +0.5 +0.3 +1.5 +1.0 +1.5 +1.0 +0.7 +0.2 +0.9 +0.9 +1.2 +0.7 +0.8 +0.9 +0.7 +0.9 +0.9 +0.8 +0.8 +0.7 +0.9 +0.9 +0.9 +0.4 +0.8 +0.9 +1.1 +0.7 +0.7 +1.2 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 9 Jun’17 2 Jun’17 0.2597 0.2638 0.2690 0.2896 0.2744 0.2636 0.2830 0.2961 0.2741 0.2585 0.2633 0.2682 0.2870 0.2728 0.2629 0.2805 0.2946 0.2726 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.5 +0.2 +0.3 +0.9 +0.6 +0.3 +0.9 +0.5 +0.6 +0.6 +0.5 +0.1 +0.6 +0.5 +0.1 +0.6 +0.7 +0.8 2 Jun’17 0.3201 0.2612 0.3219 0.3046 0.2833 0.3443 0.3120 0.3135 0.3002 0.2929 0.3204 0.3574 0.2324 0.2728 0.4118 0.3049 0.3199 0.3007 0.2897 0.3054 0.4015 0.2726 0.3110 0.3394 0.3387 0.2823 0.2898 0.3090 0.3095 1.2701 0.3213 0.2814 0.2877 0.2642 0.2569 0.3172 0.2597 0.3245 0.3062 0.2815 0.3406 0.3085 0.3158 0.3017 0.2934 0.3206 0.3561 0.2341 0.2755 0.4091 0.3106 0.3177 0.3025 0.2921 0.3007 0.3985 0.2721 0.3132 0.3398 0.3410 0.2842 0.2926 0.3112 0.3082 1.2631 0.3226 0.2813 0.2843 0.2657 0.2556 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.9 +0.4 +0.6 +0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 +0.6 +0.3 +1.1 +0.3 +1.1 +0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 +0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 +0.7 +0.6 -1.8 -1.4 +0.7 +0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 +1.6 +0.7 +0.8 +0.4 +0.2 -0.02 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 +0.4 +0.1 +0.6 +0.3 -0.4 -0.5 +0.04 -0.2 +1.2 +0.8 -0.6 -0.2 +0.5 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 9 Jun’17 9 Jun’17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 9 Jun’17 2 Jun’17 0.3589 0.3341 0.3567 0.2893 0.3624 0.3060 0.2762 0.2764 0.3573 0.3318 0.3548 0.2865 0.3602 0.3032 0.2744 0.2725 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.4 +0.7 +0.5 +1.0 +0.6 +0.9 +0.7 +1.4 +0.3 +0.7 +0.5 +0.6 +0.5 +0.7 +0.6 +0.7 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 9 Jun’17 2 Jun’17 0.9632 0.9912 1.0098 1.0382 1.0074 1.1045 1.0518 1.0609 1.0749 1.1744 1.1026 1.0591 1.0577 1.0557 1.0642 1.0623 1.0700 1.0361 1.0507 0.9624 0.9902 1.0088 1.0375 1.0067 1.1018 1.0510 1.0598 1.0740 1.1730 1.1014 1.0580 1.0568 1.0547 1.0631 1.0614 1.0690 1.0346 1.0494 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF 9 Jun’17 2 Jun’17 1.0051 1.0486 1.0009 1.0009 1.0334 1.0012 1.0276 1.0008 1.0045 1.0480 1.0003 1.0003 1.0328 1.0006 1.0269 1.0002 *Buying price Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 May 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 1.4 0.6 3.0 3.0 0.9 3.6 1.9 0.9 2.2 3.7 -0.6 4.2 0.6 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.4 7.9 6.7 7.6 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.6 2.1 2.3 0.4 -0.9 0.3 2.3 1.9 2.9 2.9 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 5.6 6.3 6.3 6.8 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 3.4 8.4 3.6 6.6 6.0 0.2 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.4 8.3 7.2 7.7 8.4 8.5 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 2.6 20.0 14.0 17.3 5.3 13.1 7.7 13.8 8.4 8.7 10.0 7.6 7.5 8.9 8.0 13.8 9.8 16.4 13.0 20.7 6.8 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.2 13.9 14.6 11.3 9.9 10.5 8.6 11.9 8.8 14.2 10.4 10.9 8.3 10.2 7.5 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.3 14.3 11.3 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 31 May 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 11.2 12.1 9.1 11.0 10.8 10.1 High Very High High High High High 9.2 10.5 8.4 10.1 9.3 9.3 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.4 -0.3 11.8 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.3 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 3.3 7.8 13.9 6.5 2.9 3.9 1.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 8.9 5.8 7.9 4.2 4.3 9.3 10.9 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.1 10.2 Low High 5.6 9.0 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.8 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.4 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 May 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 0.7 1.5 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 4.8 2.9 3.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 28 April 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 May 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.