Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 3 November

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 3 November 2017  Led by firmer oil prices, the FBM KLCI started the week on a positive note before moving into a trading range amid a lack of catalysts. The index subsequently closed 0.3% lower for the week.  Key Events Ahead: Trade deals following President Trump’s tour of Asia Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 12 – 13 Dec 2017 Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 9 Nov 2017 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Regional Regional markets generally closed on a firmer note on expectations that newly-appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will continue the policies of his predecessor. Sentiment was also lifted by firmer regional currencies against the U.S. dollar. South-East Asian markets were mixed, with the Singapore and Thailand markets easing by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively on profit-taking activities post their recent gains. Wall Street The Dow edged up by 0.4% to close at a new record high of 23,539 points for the week following the Federal Reserve’s comment at its recent meeting on 31 October-1 November that U.S. economic growth has been solid. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by 0.9% to close at 6,764 points for the week. Europe The STOXX Europe 50 Index gained 0.9% on the back of positive corporate earnings for 3Q2017 as well as firmer energy prices. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 17,435 13,027 1,741 17,318 12,998 1,746 % Weekly change +0.7 +0.2 -0.3 South-East Asia Indonesia Singapore Thailand 6,040 3,382 1,701 5,975 3,386 1,716 +1.1 -0.1 -0.8 +14.0 +17.4 +10.3 North Asia South Korea MSCI FEXJ# TOPIX (Japan) Taiwan Hong Kong China*, H Share 2,558 660 1,794^ 10,801 28,604 11,602 2,497 647 1,771 10,709 28,439 11,644 +2.5 +2.0 +1.3 +0.9 +0.6 -0.4 +26.2 +36.4 +18.1 +16.7 +30.0 +23.5 Global Nasdaq Europe** Dow Jones 6,764 3,237 23,539 6,701 3,210 23,434 +0.9 +0.9 +0.4 +25.7 +7.5 +19.1 3 Nov 17 FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ** 27 Oct 17 STOXX Europe 50 Index # in USD ^ % YTD change +18.5 +8.4 +6.0 As at 2 Nov 17 Page 1 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Global & Regional Markets Held Steady amid Resilient U.S. Economic Outlook
2. Market Commentary Malaysia - Malaysia ’s export growth moderated to a 2-month low of 14.8% in September from 21.6% in August amid slower exports of electrical & electronics (E&E) and commodity-related products. Similarly, import growth slowed to 15.2% from 22.4% over the same period. The trade surplus narrowed to RM8.6 billion in September from RM10.0 billion in August. Malaysia’s Export Growth Composition Exports (% YoY) Aug’17 Sep’17 Electrical & Electronics +20.1 +17.7 Chemical Products +15.5 +3.7 Crude Petroleum 0.0 -4.8 Palm Oil -12.1 -0.9 Total +21.6 +14.8 Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia U.S. - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit firmed by 0.2% against the US$ to close at RM4.23/US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit appreciated by 6.0% against the greenback. - As Americans resumed work in the services sector following the hurricanes in September, new non-farm jobs rebounded to 261,000 in October from a revised 18,000 jobs added in September (market expectations: 313,000 jobs). The unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1% from 4.2% over the same period. U.S. Non-Farm Jobs Composition (‘000) Services Manufacturing Construction Total Sep 2017 +6 +11 +18 Oct 2017 +248 +24 +11 +261 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a near 14-year high of 60.1 points in October from 59.8 points in September amid higher production levels. U.K. - For the first time in a decade, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate in its 2 November Monetary Policy Committee meeting from a historical low of 0.25% to 0.50% in order to curb rising inflationary pressures. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices strengthened by 2.7% to close at US$62.07/brl on expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will extend its output cuts. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, closed 0.3% higher at 429.29 points. Brent oil price CRB Index Selected Weekly Commodity Prices Level % Weekly change US$62.07/brl +2.7% 429.29 points +0.3% % YTD change +9.2% +1.5% Page 2 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 2. Economic Commentary
3. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.8 6.5 5.2 5.2 3.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.5 1.5 2.2 2.2 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.5 1.8 2018F 6.4 6.6 5.4 4.8 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.7 3.5 1.1 2.4 1.8 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2017F 1.6 3.1 4.0 3.8 1.7 0.8 2.0 0.8 2.0 0.7 0.5 2.1 1.5 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2018F 2.2 3.5 4.1 2.5 2.5 1.2 2.0 1.2 2.2 1.5 0.8 2.1 1.4 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S.(1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.32 8.84 12.97 14.60 16.90 15.40 15.19 20.35 17.68 15.93^ 11.00 19.41 16.22 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.30 3.47 3.46 1.97 2.80 3.19 3.73 1.46 2.03 1.87^ 1.51 1.93 3.76 ^ Source: Bloomberg, 3 Nov 17 As at 2 Nov 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 3 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
4.  The appointment of Jerome Powell as the new Federal Reserve chairman is viewed positively by market participants as he is expected to continue his predecessor’s policy of gradual monetary tightening.  On the local front, Malaysia’s export momentum moderated in September due mainly to softer E&E exports. Looking ahead, export growth for the full year is projected to be in the range of 14-15% in 2017 compared to the marginal 0.8% increase registered in 2016. As at 3 November 2017, the local market traded slightly below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.2x was below the 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.30% was above the 12-month FD rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, was above its 10-year historical average: - The average FD rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD ^ 3 Nov 17 1,741 16.25 3.30% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 27 Oct 17 1,746 16.38 3.33% 3.43% 3.10% 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 3 Nov 17 P/E: 14.2x P/E Ratio (x) 3 Nov 17 P/E: 16.2x 20 P/E Ratio (x) * Regional P/E valuations: 14.2x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. 15 10 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 4 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations  On the global front, the U.S. FOMC remains confident that U.S. economic activities will continue to be sustained despite the short-term effects of the hurricanes. Thus, another hike of 25 basis points (bps) in the Fed funds rate to a target range of 1.25% - 1.50% at the next meeting on 12-13 December can be expected, which should help to normalise interest rates.
5. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 3 November 2017, the UST market rebounded as market participants expected future increases in the Federal funds rate to be gradual following the nomination of Jerome Powell as the new Federal Reserve chairman. The 10-year UST yield fell by 8 bps to close at 2.33% for the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields closed lower in tandem with the decrease in UST yields, as well as on the back of a firmer Ringgit and resilient crude oil prices. The 10-year MGS yield declined by 9 bps to close at 3.96% for the week. - Over the week, the bond funds rebounded and registered positive performances amid resilient corporate bond prices. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Korean Won 1,114 +1.3 Indonesia Rupiah 13,499 +0.9 Singapore Dollar 1.36 +0.6 Chinese Yuan 6.63 +0.4 Australian Dollar 1.30 +0.3 Ringgit 4.23 +0.2 Euro 0.86 +0.2 Dollar Index* 94.91 +0.03 Japanese Yen 114 -0.01 YTD % change +7.9 -0.6 +6.1 +4.8 +6.1 +6.0 +10.4 -7.1 +2.4 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact of the U.S Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policies on global bond yields. - In the Malaysian bond market, market participants will closely monitor the upcoming MPC meeting, which is scheduled on 9 November 2017, as well as the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes. Page 5 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
6. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp 3 Nov 17 27 Oct 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.17 1.09 3 Year 1.73 1.72 3.49 3.50 4.24 4.25 4.49 4.49 5 Year 1.99 2.03 3.71 3.76 4.45 4.45 4.67 4.67 10 Year 2.33 2.41 3.96 4.05 4.74 4.75 4.98 4.98 % change* +8 MARKET BRIEF (in %) +1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -8 -9 -1 - * in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 6 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
7. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds 3 Nov 17 27 Oct 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark Invest in Local Market Only PIX 0.6657 0.6668 -0.2 PRSF 0.6139 0.6154 -0.2 ^ PSSF 0.2869 0.2865 +0.1 POGF 0.3099 0.3107 -0.3 PRSSQF 0.2648 0.2650 -0.1 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV PSF 0.5425 0.5421 +0.1 PGF 0.4762 0.4763 -0.02 PINDGF 0.5197 0.5182^ +0.3 PAGF 0.6444 0.6436 +0.1 PBF 0.6712 0.6701 +0.2 P SmallCap 0.8816 0.8823 -0.1 PEF 0.2560 0.2567^ -0.3 PFSF 0.2905 0.2883 +0.8 PDSF 0.2762 0.2759 +0.1 PSA30F 0.2949 0.2930 +0.6 PBBF 0.7922 0.7914 +0.1 PBGF 0.8099 0.8033 +0.8 PBGSQF 0.2803 0.2785 +0.6 PSSCF 0.3420 0.3391 +0.9 PBMAC 0.2652 0.2647 +0.2 PBBSQF 0.2637 0.2632 +0.2 PSMACF 0.2900 0.2886 +0.5 PSMAGF 0.2742 0.2732 +0.4 PSTGF 0.2965 0.2940 +0.9 PBDBEF 0.2747 0.2753 -0.2 PSTEF 0.3010 0.2977 +1.1 PAVGEF 0.2925 0.2904 +0.7 PGRBF 0.2771 0.2752^ +0.7 PBSCGF 0.2744 0.2721 +0.8 PEMOF 0.2814 0.2803 +0.4 PBMAGRF 0.2770 0.2749 +0.8 PeFAF 0.2550 0.2533 +0.7 +0.05 +0.1 +0.05 +0.05 +0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 +0.7 -0.3 +1.1 +0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 +0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.9 -0.3 -0.2 +0.6 +0.9 -0.2 -0.2 Local Islamic Funds 3 Nov 17 27 Oct 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark Invest in Local Market Only PISSF 0.2624 0.2637 -0.5 PISTF 0.3501 0.3483 +0.5 PIOGF 0.2805 0.2800 +0.2 PISEF 0.3783 0.3781 +0.1 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV P Ittikal 0.8617 0.8629 -0.1 PIEF 0.3463 0.3460 +0.1 PIOF 0.4591 0.4566 +0.5 PIMXAF 0.2572 0.2539 +1.3 PIDF 0.3667 0.3672^ -0.1 PIA40GF 0.3006 0.3003 +0.1 PISVF 0.3083 0.3060 +0.8 PITGF 0.3063 0.3046 +0.6 PITSEQ 0.3110 0.3104 +0.2 PBIEF 0.2677 0.2668 +0.3 PISGIF 0.2470 0.2469 +0.04 PESMACF 0.2727 0.2714 +0.5 PESMAGF 0.3154 0.3141 +0.4 PIENTEF 0.2602 0.2595 +0.3 PIAVGEF 0.2882 0.2856 +0.9 PIGRBF 0.2866 0.2836^ +1.1 PIEMOF 0.2958 0.2944 +0.5 PBISCF 0.2555 0.2557 -0.1 +0.2 +0.6 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.5 +0.2 +0.2 +0.5 +0.2 +0.5 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 -0.1 -0.2 +0.1 -0.3 -0.2 +0.5 +0.5 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 3 Nov 17 27 Oct 17 0.2704 0.2793 0.2727 0.3071 0.2906 0.2671 0.3012 0.3138 0.2959 0.2687 0.2756 0.2721 0.3023 0.2874 0.2669 0.2988 0.3105 0.2901 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.6 +0.7 +1.3 +0.6 +0.2 +0.1 +1.6 +0.6 +1.1 +0.6 +0.1 +0.1 +0.8 -0.3 +1.1 +0.7 +2.0 +0.7 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF PBAPDF 3 Nov 17 27 Oct 17 0.3586 0.2883 0.3427 0.3226 0.3072 0.3928 0.3501 0.3032 0.2939 0.3119 0.3567 0.3771 0.2499 0.2777 0.4636 0.3000 0.3353 0.3171 0.3111 0.3496 0.4298 0.2906 0.3129 0.3702 0.3317 0.2816 0.2728 0.3115 0.3420 1.4492 0.3103 0.2891 0.3152 0.2773 0.2814 0.2515 0.3502 0.2825 0.3406 0.3223 0.3016 0.3818 0.3431 0.3004 0.2905^ 0.3068 0.3542 0.3723 0.2487 0.2757 0.4546 0.2913 0.3290 0.3142 0.3058 0.3425 0.4222 0.2872 0.3127 0.3634 0.3300^ 0.2802^ 0.2673 0.3113 0.3340 1.4103 0.3082 0.2867 0.3094 0.2751 0.2765 0.2521 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +2.4 +1.9 +2.1 +1.7 +0.6 +0.5 +0.1 -0.1 +1.9 +1.1 +2.9 +1.3 +2.0 +1.2 +0.9 +0.5 +1.2 +1.1 +1.7 +1.7 +0.7 +0.2 +1.3 -0.3 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7 +0.8 +2.0 +1.8 +3.0 +2.8 +1.9 +1.6 +0.9 +1.0 +1.7 +1.4 +2.1 +1.7 +1.8 +1.3 +1.2 +1.2 +0.1 +0.2 +1.9 +1.9 +0.5 +0.3 +0.5 +0.5 +2.1 +1.9 +0.1 +0.2 +2.4 +1.6 +2.8 +1.3 +0.7 +0.7 +0.8 +0.7 +1.9 +0.9 +0.8 +1.0 +1.8 +0.1 -0.2 -0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds 3 Nov 17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF PISGEF 0.3861 0.3722 0.3952 0.3210 0.4069 0.3339 0.3112 0.3063 0.2501 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +1.9 +1.6 +1.9 +1.4 +2.4 +1.5 +1.7 +1.4 +2.4 +1.9 +2.5 +1.6 +2.0 +1.9 +1.3 +0.9 +0.1 +0.6 27 Oct 17 ^ 0.3788 0.3653 0.3859 0.3157 0.3975 0.3258 0.3050 0.3023 0.2498 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 3 Nov 17 27 Oct 17 0.9375 0.9586 1.0061 1.0469 1.0221 1.1290 1.0320 1.0458 1.0506 1.1325 1.0730 1.0745 1.0748 1.0619 1.0408 1.0412 1.0477 1.0162 1.0670 0.9365 0.9580^ 1.0054 1.0451 1.0212 1.1202 1.0313 1.0451 1.0497 1.1311 1.0722 1.0742 1.0741 1.0612 1.0404 1.0405 1.0470 1.0158 1.0661 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.8 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.03 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance 3 Nov 17 PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF *Buying price 27 Oct 17 1.0188 1.0181 1.0219 1.0212 1.0004 0.9997^ 1.0004 0.9997^ 1.0120 1.0113 1.0007 1.0001^ 1.0097 1.0090 1.0003 0.9996^ ^ Adjusted for distribution Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 7 of 12 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
8. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 October 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # 0.7 1.7 0.7 3.2 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.5 1.7 0.9 3.4 3.9 4.0 1.8 0.1 4.5 1.2 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.6 6.0 6.2 6.0 7.1 6.8 8.0 6.9 7.6 0.2 -0.8 -0.04 Moderate Moderate Low 6.2 6.3 6.2 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund (PIA40GF) Public Islamic Dividend Fund (PIDF) Public Islamic Equity Fund (PIEF) Public Islamic Growth & Income Fund (PISGIF) Public Ittikal Fund (P ITTIKAL) Public Ittikal Sequel Fund (PITSEQ) Public Islamic Savings Fund (PISVF) PB Islamic Equity Fund (PBIEF) 2.6 2.1 2.6 0.5 1.8 2.0 3.7 2.8 Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.6 Small & Mid Cap Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund 6.0 High 8.4 3.8 5.9 3.3 8.3 2.7 Moderate High Moderate Moderate High 7.3 8.1 7.1 7.7 8.4 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Index Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund (PIX) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSSF) Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV Public Aggressive Growth Fund (PAGF) Public Dividend Select Fund (PDSF) Public Equity Fund (PEF) Public Growth Fund (PGF) Public Industry Growth Fund (PINDGF) Public Savings Fund (PSF) Public Select Alpha-30 Fund (PSA30F) PB Growth Fund (PBGF) PB Growth Sequel Fund (PBGSQF) Islamic Non Regional Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (PISTF) Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV Public Focus Select Fund (PFSF) Public SmallCap Fund (P SmallCap) Public Strategic SmallCap Fund (PSSCF) Public Islamic Opportunities Fund (PIOF) Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund (PITGF) Page 8 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 31 October 2017
9. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 4.5 21.9 15.6 21.2 7.9 12.7 7.1 16.7 7.2 7.9 12.7 10.0 7.9 12.7 8.9 16.5 13.2 18.5 15.5 22.8 9.2 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High Very High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.0 13.9 14.7 11.2 9.4 10.6 8.4 12.0 9.1 13.7 10.4 10.9 8.1 10.5 7.3 9.7 11.0 12.0 13.2 14.2 11.2 (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 15.3 14.1 13.3 15.1 15.0 14.5 High High High High High High 9.3 10.4 8.6 10.2 9.4 9.5 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 13.6 3.4 14.0 High High High 9.5 10.1 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 2.8 10.1 17.1 6.2 4.1 4.0 1.9 12.2 7.5 3.7 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 9.5 5.6 7.8 4.3 4.3 9.7 10.6 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.8 13.5 Low High 5.5 9.1 Fund Name Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund Page 9 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 October 2017
10. III . BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund (PBOND) 4.2 Public Enhanced Bond Fund (PEBF) 4.0 Public Enterprises Bond Fund (PENTBF) 4.3 Public Institutional Bond Fund (PIN Bond) 3.9 Public Select Bond Fund (PSBF) 3.7 Public Strategic Bond Fund (PSTBF) 4.1 PB Bond Fund (PBBOND) 4.2 PB Fixed Income Fund (PBFI) 4.3 PB Infrastructure Bond Fund (PBINFBF) 4.3 Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund (PI BOND) 4.6 Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund (PIEBF) 4.3 Public Islamic Income Fund (PI INCOME) 3.6 Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund (PIINFBF) 4.5 Public Islamic Select Bond Fund (PISBF) 4.0 Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund (PISTBF) 3.8 Public Sukuk Fund (PSKF) 4.3 PB Aiman Sukuk Fund (PBASF) 4.8 PB Islamic Bond Fund (PBIBF) 4.7 PB Sukuk Fund (PBSKF) 4.3 IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund (PMMF) 3.4 PB Cash Management Fund (PBCMF) 3.3 PB Cash Plus Fund (PBCPF) 3.4 Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund (PIMMF) 3.3 PB Islamic Cash Management Fund (PBICMF) 3.2 PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund (PBICPF) 3.2 V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund (PRS-GRF) 2.3 Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund (PRS-MDF) 3.3 Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund (PRS-CVF) 3.5 Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund (PRS-IGRF) 6.2 Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund (PRS-IMDF) 4.3 Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund (PRS-ICVF) 3.5 * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 29 September 2017 (Source: Lipper) Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.9 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.8 Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Very Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 30 June 2017 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.870, 1.870 < VF ≤ 6.225, 6.225 < VF ≤ 8.225, 8.225 < VF ≤ 10.735 and VF more than 10.735 respectively. For this period to 31 December 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 30 June 2017. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 10 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Fund Name 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 October 2017
11. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 11 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
12. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 12 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.