Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 19 May

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 19 May 2017  After touching a 2-year intraday high of 1,788 points on Tuesday, the FBM KLCI eased to close at 1,768 points for a weekly loss of 0.4%.  Global and regional markets traded on a mixed note on concerns that President Trump’s fiscal agenda may be hampered by political uncertainties in Washington.  Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain focused on the pace of global and regional economic activities in 2Q2017 and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid-June. Performance of Key Indices (As at 19 May’ 17) Region Market FBM KLCI FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Local South East Asia North Asia Wall Street Europe Straits Times Index Jakarta Composite Index China ‘H’ Shares Shanghai Composite Index Dow Jones Nasdaq STOXX Europe 50 Index Index 1,768 13,009 % Weekly Change -0.4 -0.4 3,217 -1.2 5,792 10,267 3,091 20,805 6,084 3,236 +2.1 -0.1 +0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Cautious offshore sentiment despite robust 1Q2017 GDP: The market commenced the Local week on a strong note with the FBM KLCI rising to a 2-year intraday high of 1,788 points on Tuesday. However, cautious sentiment in offshore markets caused the index to retrace in mid-week before rebounding slightly in late Friday following the release of Malaysia’s better-than-expected 1Q2017 GDP growth of 5.6%. The FBM KLCI registered a weekly loss of 0.4% to close at 1,768 points. The FBM EMAS Shariah Index eased by 0.4% to close at 13,009 points for the week. Meanwhile, the FBM Small Cap Index closed 0.9% higher over the week. Regional Mixed amid concerns over the outlook for U.S. fiscal policy: Global and regional markets traded on a mixed note on concerns that President Trump’s fiscal agenda may be hampered by political uncertainties in Washington. Japan’s TOPIX declined by 1.3% while the Hong Kong and South Korean markets remained almost unchanged. The South-East Asian markets remained soft with the Singapore and Philippine markets falling by 1.2% and 0.6% respectively. Down under, the Australian market closed 1.9% lower over the week. Page 1 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Global Markets Traded Mixed Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Agenda
2. Comments Concerns over Trump ’s fiscal agenda weighed on sentiment: The U.S. markets eased on concerns that President Trump’s fiscal and pro-growth policies may be delayed due to political uncertainties in Washington. The Dow closed 0.4% lower at 20,805 points for the week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq moved 0.6% lower to close at 6,084 points over the same period. Europe European markets, as proxied by the STOXX Europe 50 Index, declined by 1.1% on the back of uncertainties over the U.S. administration’s stimulus plans. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 17,681 13,058 1,776 % Weekly change +0.9 -0.4 -0.4 % YTD change +21.2 +8.3 +7.7 5,792 1,550 7,768 3,217 5,675 1,544 7,816 3,255 +2.1 +0.4 -0.6 -1.2 +9.3 +0.4 +13.6 +11.7 7,222 573 3,091 2,288 25,175 10,267 9,948 1,560 7,139 571 3,084 2,286 25,156 10,283 9,987 1,581 +1.2 +0.4 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -1.3 +20.6 +18.4 -0.4 +12.9 +14.4 +9.3 +7.5 +2.7 19 May’ 17 12 May’ 17 17,842 13,009 1,768 South-East Asia Indonesia Thailand Philippines Singapore North Asia MSCI China MSCI FEXJ# SH Comp (China) South Korea Hong Kong China*, H Share Taiwan TOPIX (Japan) FBM Small Cap Index FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM KLCI Global FTSE 100 (U.K.) 7,471 7,435 +0.5 MSCI World# 459.64 459.60 +0.01 Dow Jones 20,805 20,897 -0.4 Nasdaq 6,084 6,121 -0.6 ** Europe 3,236 3,271 -1.1 Australia 5,727 5,837 -1.9 * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index **STOXX Europe 50 Index #in USD 2. +4.6 +9.0 +5.3 +13.0 +7.5 +1.1 Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - Malaysia’s GDP growth gained pace from 4.5% in 4Q2016 to 5.6% in 1Q2017 due to higher private consumption and investment. Investment spending growth accelerated from 2.4% in 4Q2016 to 10.0% in 1Q2017 as both private and public investment spending increased. Page 2 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Market Wall Street
3. Quarterly 4Q2016 1Q2017 6 .1 6.6 2.4 10.0 -4.2 7.5 2.2 9.8 1.6 12.9 4.5 5.6 (%) YoY Private Consumption Investment Government Spending Exports Imports GDP Growth 12.0 10.0 2016 6.0 2.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 4.2 Annual 2017F^ 6.0 3.3 -0.2 2.2 1.8 4.3-4.8 Fig 1. Malaysia's 1Q2017 GDP Surged to 5.6% 5.6% 4.2% 8.0 4.0% 4.3% 6.0 5.0 4.5% 4.0 6.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1Q2016 2Q2016 GDP (RHS) 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 Consumption Investment - The inflation rate eased to 4.4% in April from 5.1% in March as transportation costs rose by a smaller margin. - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit gained by 0.5% to close at RM4.32 against the US$ in tandem with the firming of key currencies against the greenback. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit strengthened by 3.8% against the greenback. - Housing starts fell to 1,172,000 units in April from 1,203,000 units in March amid lower starts of multi-family homes. - Industrial production growth rose to a 27-month high of 2.2% in April from 1.5% in March due to higher output from the mining and manufacturing sectors. Japan - Based on preliminary estimates, Japan’s GDP growth edged down from 1.7% in 4Q2016 to 1.6% in 1Q2017 on the back of lower public spending. Thailand - Led by higher growth in private consumption and exports, Thailand’ GDP growth gained pace from 3.0% in 4Q2016 to 3.3% in 1Q2017. Indonesia - Standard & Poor’s (S&P) lifted Indonesia's sovereign rating from BB+ to BBB(with a stable outlook), citing an improvement in the nation's budget and reduced risks to Indonesia’s fiscal issues. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices rose by 5.4% to close at US$53.61/brl amid expectations of an oil output cut extension among the OPEC and non-OPEC members. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose by 5.2% to close at US$50.33/brl over the same period. U.S. - The CRB Commodity Price Index increased by 1.5% to close at 433.12 points. Page 3 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Malaysia’s GDP Growth Breakdown by Aggregate Demand
4. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.6 6.8 5.2 4.4 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.5 3.4 1.2 2.3 1.7 2016 6.7 6.8 5.0 4.2 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 * f=consensus forecast 2018F 6.2 6.5 5.4 4.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 0.6 2.5 1.6 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China* Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan* U.S.* Eurozone* IMF forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2017F 2.1 3.3 4.3 2.7 2.0 1.0 1.9 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.6 2.4 1.6 2018F 2.2 3.1 4.4 2.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.9 2.3 1.5 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S. (1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 15.85 8.28 12.45 13.50 15.11 14.71 13.94 18.84 16.59 13.93 9.96 18.34 15.86 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.47 3.63 3.36 2.02 3.04 3.45 4.02 1.62 1.95 2.10 1.63 2.05 3.89 Source: Bloomberg, 19 May’ 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 4 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5. On the regional front , S&P’s upgrade of Indonesia’s credit rating to investment grade brings it in line with the other two main rating companies, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, both of which have a positive outlook on their assessments of the nation’s debt. This should pave the way for more capital inflows into Indonesia. On the domestic front, the better-than-expected GDP growth in 1Q2017 was underpinned by a broadbased improvement in all sectors of the economy except for mining. Looking ahead, Malaysia’s GDP growth for 2017 is envisaged to range between 4.5% and 5.0% if domestic demand remains resilient. As at 19 May 2017, the local market traded above its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.6x versus its 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.16% was above the 12-month F.D. rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, traded below its 10-year historical average: - Regional P/E valuations: 12.9x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. * The average F.D. rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD, % ^ 19 May’ 17 1,768 16.64 3.16% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 12 May’ 17 1,776 16.74 3.14% 3.43% 3.10% Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 19 May 2017 P/E: 16.6x 19 May 2017 P/E: 12.9x P/E Ratio (x) 20 P/E Ratio (x) 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - 15 10 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 5 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations While global markets have recently turned cautious amid concerns that the U.S. administration may face Congressional obstacles in passing fiscal stimulus measures in the coming months, the mediumterm outlook for key global economies remains bright. Meanwhile, investors will be keeping a close eye on a potential hike in the U.S. Federal funds rate at next month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 13-14 June.
6. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 19 May 2017, the U.S. Treasury (UST) market ended firmer on safe-haven demand due to political uncertainties in Washington. The 10-year UST yield eased by 8 basis points (bps) to close at 2.25% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS market closed mixed with the yields of medium- and longtenured issues moving lower in response to Malaysia’s stronger-thanexpected 1Q2017 GDP growth of 5.6% (consensus: 4.8%). The 10-year MGS yields fell by 8 bps to close at 3.86%. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - Over the week, the bond funds continued to register positive performances, underpinned by resilient corporate bond prices. Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Euro 0.90 +2.6 Japanese Yen 111.40 +2.1 Singapore Dollar 1.39 +1.3 Pound Sterling 0.77 +1.2 Australian Dollar 1.34 +0.7 Ringgit 4.32 +0.5 Chinese Yuan 6.89 +0.2 Indonesia Rupiah 13,333 +0.04 Dollar Index* 97.14 -2.1 YTD % change +5.8 +4.9 +3.9 +5.7 +2.9 +3.8 +0.8 +0.7 -5.0 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential inflationary impact of the U.S. administration’s pro-growth economic policies on the global bond market. Over in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank signalled that it sees less need for easy monetary policy going forward. - The Malaysian bond market is expected to be influenced by the repricing of global bonds. Should expectations of the U.S. fiscal stimulus and tax plans be reassessed, the Malaysian bond market should see flows coming back amid the relatively-competitive Ringgit. Page 6 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
7. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp. 'AA' Corp 19 May 17 12 May 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 0.90 0.87 3 Year 1.47 1.49 3.29 3.26 4.19 4.19 4.49 4.50 5 Year 1.80 1.85 3.55 3.57 4.31 4.33 4.61 4.63 10 Year 2.25 2.33 3.86 3.94 4.68 4.71 4.91 4.94 % change* MARKET BRIEF (in %) +3 -2 +3 -1 -5 -2 -2 -2 -8 -8 -3 -3 *in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 7 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
8. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds PSF PGF PIX PINDGF PAGF PRSF PBF P SmallCap PEF PFSF PDSF PSSF PSA30F POGF PBBF PBGF PBGSQF PSSCF PBMAC PBBSQF PSMACF PSMAGF PSTGF PBDBEF PSTEF PAVGEF PGRBF PBSCGF PRSSQF PEMOF PBMAGRF 19 May’17 12 May’17 0.5418 0.4819 0.6732 0.5202 0.6410 0.6170 0.6862 0.9531 0.2683 0.2886 0.2787 0.3022 0.2985 0.3182 0.8109 0.8124 0.2772 0.3476 0.2589 0.2620 0.2843 0.2738 0.2950 0.2746 0.2989 0.2919 0.2753 0.2744 0.2672 0.2815 0.2677 0.5422 0.4831 0.6725 0.5203 0.6410 0.6162 0.6859 0.9445 0.2680 0.2884 0.2793 0.3017 0.2981 0.3191 0.8107 0.8123 0.2776 0.3456 0.2590 0.2618 0.2830 0.2735 0.2955 0.2738 0.2965 0.2897 0.2739 0.2728 0.2669 0.2811 0.2668 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 +0.1 -0.3 -0.02 -0.4 -0.4 +0.1 -0.3 +0.04 -0.2 +0.9 +0.9 +0.1 -0.4 +0.1 -0.04 -0.2 -0.3 +0.2 -0.3 +0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 +0.02 -0.2 +0.01 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 +0.6 +0.9 -0.04 -0.1 +0.1 -0.2 +0.5 -0.1 +0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 +0.3 -0.3 +0.8 +0.2 +0.8 -0.4 +0.5 -0.2 +0.6 +0.8 +0.1 -0.3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 -0.3 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF P Ittikal PIEF PIOF PIMXAF PIDF PISSF PISTF PIOGF PISEF PIA40GF PISVF PITGF PITSEQ PBIEF PISGIF PESMACF PESMAGF PIENTEF PIAVGEF PIGRBF PIEMOF PBISCF 12 May’17 0.8775 0.3493 0.4456 0.2498 0.3675 0.2663 0.3619 0.2807 0.3864 0.2911 0.2990 0.3057 0.3034 0.2685 0.2446 0.2571 0.3095 0.2621 0.2864 0.2809 0.2881 0.2503 0.8816 0.3502 0.4457 0.2500 0.3689 0.2671 0.3619 0.2819 0.3872 0.2925 0.3001 0.3059 0.3039 0.2696 0.2453 0.2571 0.3096 0.2627 0.2871 0.2797 0.2882 0.2503 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.5 -0.3 -0.02 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.03 -0.2 -0.2 +0.4 -0.03 - -0.4 -0.4 +0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 +0.8 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 19 May’17 12 May’17 0.2588 0.2659 0.2674 0.2868 0.2730 0.2626 0.2845 0.2913 0.2711 0.2594 0.2656 0.2671 0.2870 0.2735 0.2624 0.2828 0.2911 0.2717 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.2 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1 -0.2 +0.1 +0.6 +0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 +0.1 -0.2 -0.2 +0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 12 May’17 0.3332 0.2774 0.3407 0.3028 0.2806 0.3360 0.3043 0.3085 0.3013 0.2899 0.3348 0.3549 0.2320 0.2760 0.4036 0.3145 0.3133 0.3217 0.2888 0.2964 0.3951 0.2705 0.3137 0.3359 0.3355 0.2844 0.2966 0.3114 0.3063 1.2503 0.3197 0.2796 0.2826 0.2657 0.2521 0.3338 0.2773 0.3425 0.3038 0.2803 0.3373 0.3046 0.3085 0.2999 0.2876 0.3370 0.3555 0.2329 0.2781 0.4039 0.3086 0.3141 0.3199 0.2880 0.2966 0.3921 0.2706 0.3151 0.3356 0.3354 0.2865 0.2930 0.3129 0.3096 1.2517 0.3221 0.2802 0.2825 0.2651 0.2534 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.2 -0.2 +0.04 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 +0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 +0.5 +0.3 +0.8 +0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.8 -0.1 -0.2 +1.9 +1.9 -0.3 -0.4 +0.6 +0.3 +0.3 +0.2 -0.1 -0.1 +0.8 +0.5 -0.04 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.1 -0.7 +0.03 -0.04 -0.7 -1.1 +1.2 +1.0 -0.5 -0.2 -1.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.04 +0.04 -0.2 +0.2 +0.3 -0.5 +0.1 Foreign Islamic Funds Local Islamic Funds 19 May’17 19 May’17 PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF 19 May’17 12 May’17 0.3524 0.3285 0.3515 0.2843 0.3566 0.3001 0.2716 0.2716 0.3520 0.3284 0.3523 0.2850 0.3560 0.2997 0.2718 0.2726 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.03 -0.2 -0.2 +0.2 +0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 19 May’17 12 May’17 0.9607 0.9885 1.0069 1.0336 1.0425 1.0999 1.0489 1.0589 1.0719 1.1709 1.0995 1.0569 1.0548 1.0532 1.0620 1.0588 1.0681 1.0332 1.0479 0.9596 0.9874 1.0060 1.0312 1.0416 1.0993 1.0477 1.0577 1.0708 1.1695 1.0985 1.0554 1.0536 1.0519 1.0601 1.0578 1.0664 1.0324 1.0460 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF 19 May’17 12 May’17 1.0033 1.0467 1.0017 1.0015 1.0315 1.0020 1.0257 1.0015 1.0026 1.0461 1.0011 1.0010 1.0309 1.0014 1.0251 1.0010 *Buying price Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.05 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 8 of 13 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
9. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 April 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAGF) (PDSF) (PEF) (PGF) (PIX) (PINDGF) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSF) (PSSF) (PSA30F) (PBGF) (PBGSQF) 1.3 0.4 2.7 2.7 0.7 3.2 2.1 0.9 2.0 3.8 -0.5 3.9 0.8 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.4 7.9 6.7 7.5 (PIA40GF) (PIDF) (PIEF) (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (P ITTIKAL) (PITSEQ) (PISVF) (PBIEF) 1.5 2.1 2.2 0.7 -0.6 0.4 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.0 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.8 (PFSF) (P SmallCap) (PSSCF) (PIOF) (PISTF) (PITGF) 4.0 8.8 3.5 6.8 6.5 0.2 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High 7.3 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.3 8.5 (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 4.0 19.9 14.2 17.4 3.5 13.2 7.8 13.4 8.5 8.2 9.5 7.2 6.6 9.3 7.1 13.3 9.7 15.7 13.5 20.8 6.4 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.1 14.0 14.6 11.3 9.9 10.5 8.6 11.9 8.7 14.2 10.4 10.9 8.3 10.2 7.5 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.3 14.3 11.3 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Public Aggressive Growth Fund Public Dividend Select Fund Public Equity Fund Public Growth Fund Public Index Fund Public Industry Growth Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund Public Select Alpha-30 Fund PB Growth Fund PB Growth Sequel Fund Islamic Non Regional Funds Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund Public Islamic Dividend Fund Public Islamic Equity Fund Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund Public Ittikal Fund Public Ittikal Sequel Fund Public Islamic Savings Fund PB Islamic Equity Fund Small & Mid Cap Funds Public Focus Select Fund Public SmallCap Fund Public Strategic SmallCap Fund Public Islamic Opportunities Fund Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Page 9 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 28 April 2017
10. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 10.6 12.3 8.5 10.8 10.3 9.9 High Very High High High High High 9.2 10.5 8.4 10.1 9.3 9.3 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 12.2 -0.8 11.2 High High High 9.5 10.3 9.3 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 3.0 7.3 13.5 6.6 3.9 3.8 1.7 7.6 8.1 3.1 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 8.9 5.8 7.7 4.3 4.3 9.3 10.9 3.3 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.1 10.2 Low High 5.6 9.0 (PBOND) (PEBF) (PENTBF) (PIN Bond) (PSBF) (PSTBF) (PBBOND) (PBFI) (PBINFBF) 4.3 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low 1.0 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 (PI BOND) (PIEBF) (PI INCOME) (PIINFBF) (PISBF) (PISTBF) (PSKF) (PBASF) (PBIBF) (PBSKF) 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.7 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.7 Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 (PMMF) (PBCMF) (PBCPF) 3.3 3.3 3.3 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 (PIMMF) (PBICMF) (PBICPF) 3.2 3.1 3.2 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Fund Name Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund III. BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund Public Enhanced Bond Fund Public Enterprises Bond Fund Public Institutional Bond Fund Public Select Bond Fund Public Strategic Bond Fund PB Bond Fund PB Fixed Income Fund PB Infrastructure Bond Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund Public Islamic Income Fund Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund Public Islamic Select Bond Fund Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund Public Sukuk Fund PB Aiman Sukuk Fund PB Islamic Bond Fund PB Sukuk Fund IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund PB Cash Management Fund PB Cash Plus Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund PB Islamic Cash Management Fund PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund Page 10 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 April 2017
11. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PRS-GRF) (PRS-MDF) (PRS-CVF) 1.1 1.9 3.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (PRS-IGRF) (PRS-IMDF) (PRS-ICVF) 4.7 2.8 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Fund Name V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 31 March 2017 (Source: Lipper) Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 31 December 2016 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.785, 1.785 < VF ≤ 5.965, 5.965 < VF ≤ 8.015, 8.015 < VF ≤ 10.605 and VF more than 10.605 respectively. For this period to 30 June 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 31 December 2016. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 11 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 28 April 2017
12. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 12 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
13. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 13 of 13 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.