Kenanga Shariah OnePRS Moderate Fund Report - June 2021

Transcription

1. June 2021 Market Review and Outlook OnePRS Fund Review On the equity front , the US markets marked their fourth straight monthly advance in May as economic data such as lower unemployment claims signalled a sustained rebound, outweighing inflation worries. Considerable focus was on the outlook for higher spending that could boost growth, even after the personal consumption expenditures core-price gauge rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier, which is the most in two decades. President Joe Biden issued his first full budget proposal, detailing his ambitions to expand the size and scope of the federal government with more than USD6 trillion in spending over the coming fiscal year. While this raises concern over rising inflation that would boost interest rates sooner than expected, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen opined that the inflation will be temporary and not something that is endemic. In Malaysia, 1Q21 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at a slower pace of 0.5% year-onyear (YoY) / +2.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) (vs -3.4% YoY in 4Q20, -5.6% in 2020) despite Movement Control Order (MCO) 2.0. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 1.75% on 6 May 2021. However, it stated that the balance of risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, due mainly to uncertainty over the path of the pandemic as well as potential risks of heightened financial market volatility. New daily Covid-19 cases hit a record high of 9,020 on 29 May. With the current stretched medical resources, these led to the government’s decision on 28 May 2021 that the country will be placed under a twoweek nationwide lockdown similar to MCO 1.0. The government has since unveiled the country’s ninth Covid-19 stimulus package, dubbed PEMERKASA+, to fund three priorities: increasing healthcare capacity, providing relief to households, and supporting businesses. The stimulus package totalled RM40 billion (2.6% of GDP), of which RM5 billion is a direct fiscal injection (0.3% of GDP), taking the cumulative stimulus outlays since the Covid-19 crisis began to RM380 billion. The KLCI and FBM Shariah Index declined 1.1% and 3.8% respectively in May, while, the FBM Small Cap Index dropped 7.0%. Foreign investors were net sellers of RM0.2 billion in May 2021, taking year-to-date net selling to RM3.0 billion. Prices of Brent crude oil and CPO rose 3.1% and 1.3% to USD69.3 per barrel and RM3,919 per ton respectively over the month. The Ringgit fell 0.9% MoM to 4.13 against the USD in May. On the fixed income front, US Treasuries (UST) yields drifted lower as the weaker-than-expected manufacturing and labour data dampened optimism over the recovery of the US economy. The US economy added 266,000 jobs in April, which was significantly fewer than the consensus of 1,000,000 jobs (March: 770,000), while the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in April from 6.0% in March. Subsequently, the 10-year UST yields spiked to 1.70% when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in higher at 4.2% YoY in April (expected: 3.6%; March: 2.6%). Thereafter, the 10-year UST yields started to fall again when disappointing retail sales data indicated that the jump in inflation could be temporary. Month-on-month (MoM), the UST yield curve shifted lower as 2Y and 10Y UST yields ended the month at 0.14% and 1.59% respectively (end-April: 0.16% and 1.63%). Locally, the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) yield curve steepened in May on the back of thin liquidity, with buying interest concentrated on the shorter tenures. During the month, investors turned cautious during following the increase in number of Covid-19 infections and expectations of a further stimulus package leading to concerns over fiscal slippage and sovereign ratings trajectory post announcement of a Full Movement Control Order (FMCO) from 1 June-14 June. MoM, the 3Y and 10Y MGS yields ended the month at 2.31% and 3.24% respectively (endApril: 2.37% and 3.13%). Kenanga Investors Berhad Company No: 199501024358 (353563-P) Level 14, Kenanga Tower 237, Jalan Tun Razak 50400 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-2172 3000 Toll Free: 1800-88-3737 www.kenangainvestors.com.my 1 Strictly for Clients of Kenanga Investors Berhad
2. June 2021 Market Review and Outlook OnePRS Fund Outlook For the equity market , while the global economy continues on the recovery path lead by developed markets, the risk of a significant pickup in inflation and Covid-19 flareups in some parts of the world could create some volatility. Nonetheless, accommodative monetary policies by global central banks and strong fiscal stimulus are overall supportive for global equities. We remain buyers on market weakness. Meanwhile, US Treasuries (UST) yields may eventually trend higher, although lingering uncertainties should support buying interest. While the US Fed is expected to keep interest rates low for a prolonged period of time to support sustained economic recovery, the rapid pace of the recovery may lead to adjustments in the Fed’s asset purchase program. Locally, the implementation of a nationwide lockdown has dampened Malaysia’s near-term growth prospects. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be lower than the earlier forecast of 6.0%-7.5% for 2021, while the fiscal deficit forecast will likely be revised higher than the earlier 6.0% of GDP. Meanwhile, headline inflation is likely to trend higher going forward, with a temporary spike in 2Q21 due to the low base effect, before moderating thereafter. Underlying inflation is expected to remain subdued amid continued spare capacity in the economy. Given the continued uncertainties surrounding the pandemic, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to remain data-dependent with a focus on the overall outlook for inflation and domestic growth. We expect BNM to remain accommodative in its monetary policy stance as the central bank is committed to utilize its policy levers as appropriate to enable a sustainable economic recovery. OnePRS Fund Strategy For all PRS funds (except Kenanga OnePRS Growth Fund); please refer to the respective underlying fund(s). For Kenanga OnePRS Growth Fund, we maintain a barbell investment strategy, focusing on recovery/re-opening theme and structural growth themes. For recovery themes, we focus on cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary (retail and leisure), energy and materials. For structural growth theme, we like sectors such as technology, electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and renewable energy. Kenanga Investors Berhad Company No: 199501024358 (353563-P) Level 14, Kenanga Tower 237, Jalan Tun Razak 50400 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-2172 3000 Toll Free: 1800-88-3737 www.kenangainvestors.com.my 2 Strictly for Clients of Kenanga Investors Berhad
3. Kenanga Shariah OnePRS Moderate Fund June 2021 FUND PERFORMANCE (%) FUND OBJECTIVE Aims to provide income and capital growth over the long-term % Cumulative Return, Launch to 31/05/2021 through investments in Shariah-compliant equities and sukuk. 30 25 Fund Category/Type Core (Moderate) 20 15 Launch Date 18 August 2016 10 5 Trustee CIMB Islamic Trustee Berhad 0 May 21 Dec 20 Jun 20 Dec 19 Jun 19 Dec 18 Jun 18 Dec 17 Jun 17 Dec 16 Aug 16 -5 Benchmark Composite of FBM Emas Shariah Index (60%) and Maybank 1- Kenanga Shariah OnePRS Moderate Fund : 19.32 Month GIA rate (40%) FBM EMAS Shariah Index (60%) and Maybank 1-Month GIA rate (40%) : 15.34 Source: Novagni Analytics and Advisory CUMULATIVE FUND PERFORMANCE (%)# Designated Fund Manager Lee Sook Yee Period 1 month 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Since Launch Sales Charge Up to 1.50% Annual Management Fee 1.55% p.a. # Annual Trustee Fee 0.02% p.a. Fund -2.39 0.83 8.67 17.58 19.32 CALENDAR YEAR FUND PERFORMANCE (%) # Period 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Fund 7.33 11.96 -8.19 8.37 -0.82 Benchmark 11.95 7.33 -5.72 11.65 -0.39 Source: Lipper, 31 May 2021 FUND SIZE * RM 0.39 million Redemption Charge Nil Benchmark -2.09 -0.54 5.98 11.29 15.34 NAV PER UNIT * RM 0.5966 HISTORICAL FUND PRICE * Since Inception Date Highest RM 0.6205 16-Feb-21 Lowest RM 0.4658 19-Mar-20 All fees and charges payable to the Manager and the Trustee are subject to the goods and services tax /sales and services tax/other taxes of similar nature as may be imposed by the government or other authorities from time to time. ASSET ALLOCATION (% NAV) * May 2.0% April 2.0% March 2.0% 98.0% Collective Investment Schemes 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% Liquidity 1 2 SECTOR ALLOCATION (% NAV) * Short Term Deposit and Cash 2.0% Collective Investment Schemes TOP HOLDINGS (% NAV) * KENANGA SYARIAH GROWTH FUND KENANGA BON ISLAM FUND DISTRIBUTION HISTORY 56.90% 41.10% - 0 0.00% 0.00% Not Applicable * Source: Kenanga Investors Berhad, 31 May 2021 The Kenanga Disclosure Document (“DD”) in relation to the OnePRS Scheme dated 18 August 2016, its have been registered with the Securities Commission Malaysia, who takes no responsibility for its contents. The fund fact sheet has not been reviewed by the SC. A copy of the Disclosure Documents are obtainable at our offices. Application for Units can only be made on receipt of application form referred to in and accompanying the DD. Investors are advised to read and understand the DD before investing. Investors are also advised to consider the fees and charges before investing. Unit prices and distributions may go down as well as up. Where a unit split/distribution is declared, investors are advised that following the issue of additional units/distribution, the NAV per unit will be reduced from pre-unit split NAV/cumdistribution NAV to post-unit split NAV/ex-distribution NAV. Where a unit split is declared, investors should note that the value of their investment in Malaysian Ringgit will remain unchanged after the distribution of the additional units. A Fund’s track record does not guarantee its future performance. Investors are advised to read and understand the contents of the unit trust loan financing risk disclosure statement before deciding to borrow to purchase units. Kenanga Investors Berhad is committed to preventing Conflict of Interest between its various businesses and activities and between its clients / directors / shareholders and employees by having in place procedures and measures for identifying and properly managing any apparent, potential and perceived Conflict of Interest by making disclosures to Clients, where appropriate. The Manager wishes to highlight the specific risks of the Fund are interest rate risk, liquidity risk, default and counterparty risk, stock-specific risk, collective investment scheme risk, currency risk and reclassification of Shariah status risk.