Indonesia: Commercial Property Survey - 4Q 2017

Transcription

1. COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT The Commercial Property Price Index Increased on Rising Demand Quarter IV - 2017 • • • Based on the Commercial Property Development Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) posted 0.09% (qtq) growth in the fourth quarter of 2017, reversing the prior -0.04% (qtq) contraction. The respondents confirmed that rising prices primarily affected convention halls (1.88%, qtq), followed by industrial estates (0.16%, qtq) and warehouse complexes (0.16%, qtq). Annually, the survey respondents confirmed a shallower contraction of commercial property prices, improving from -0.21% (yoy) to -0.09% (yoy). The respondents acknowledged a surge in the supply of commercial property in the fourth quarter of 2017, reflected by an increase in the Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) from 0.09% (qtq) to 0.58% (qtq), on the back of the office segment. Annually, the Survey pointed to a slower increase in the supply of commercial property, with growth decelerating from 1.39% (yoy) to 1.37% (yoy). Congruent with rising prices, the Commercial Property Demand Index (CPDI) also posted gains in the fourth quarter of 2017. The quarterly gains were driven by the apartment and office segments. Annually, however, rising demand slowed, with respondents confirming convention halls and hotels as the main drag with growth recorded in negative territory. COMMERCIAL PROPERTY A. Commercial Property Prices In the fourth quarter of 2017, the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) increased on a quarterly basis but contracted annually. Based on the Commercial Property Development Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) stood at 172.42 in the fourth quarter of 2017 with growth reversing the previous -0.04% (qtq) contraction to post 0.09% (qtq). Respondents confirmed that rising prices primarily affected convention halls (1.88%, qtq), particularly in Jabodebek, followed by industrial estates (0.16%, qtq) and warehouse complexes (0.16%, qtq). Conventional halls at new hotels with higher tariffs edged up prices in the segment, while respondents explained that the prices of industrial estates and warehouse complexes were driven by facilities with established performance (Graph 1). Methodology • Commercial Property Development has been analysed on a quarterly basis since the first quarter of 1996, covering five segments, namely offices, shopping centres (retail), apartments, hotels and industrial estates. Data is collated through outsourcing using face-to-face and telephone interviews covering data on supply, occupancy and sales, as well as selling prices and commercial property rental rates. Data is processed using the weighted average of area and number of units for each commercial property segment. Data is collected to reveal the latest direction of inflationary pressures on commercial property as an indicator of asset price inflation. Makassar was included in the survey since the second quarter of 2014 along with Medan, Semarang and Surabaya in the first quarter of 2015, Balikpapan and Denpasar in the first quarter of 2017. • Since the third quarter of 2015, commercial property data has been presented in terms of the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), consistent with improvements in terms of sampling methodology and data management of each property segment. The index is calculated using 2012 as the base year and capitalisation value as the weighted average. The cities of Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, Medan, Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Denpasar are used to calculate the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI). • Sales and occupancy rates are calculated based on the ratio of the number of sold/occupied units and the cumulative supply (new supply and existing inventory). Real Sector Statistics Division – Statistics Department, e-mail : Dsta-DSSR@bi.go.id Ph. 021 – 29815080 1
2. Commercial Property Development Graph 1 . Commercial Property Price Index Growth (qtq) In contrast, hoteliers acknowledged lower prices in the hotel segment (-5.29%, qtq) as government and private sector meeting activities faded towards the end of the year after enjoying strong growth in the third quarter (6.52%, qtq). Annually, the survey respondents confirmed a shallower contraction of commercial property prices, improving from -0.21% (yoy) to -0.09% (yoy) (Graph 2) in the reporting period. Hoteliers reported the deepest contraction (-16.19%, yoy) due to increasing competition as new hotels, particularly 3 and 4 stars, penetrated the market against a backdrop of dwindling demand. Graph 2. Commercial Property Price Index Growth (yoy) 2
3. Commercial Property Development B . Commercial Property Supply The Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) accelerated on a quarterly basis but moderated annually. Respondents confirmed a surge in the supply of commercial property in the fourth quarter of 2017, reflected by an increase in the Commercial Property Supply Index (CPSI) from 0.09% (qtq) to 0.58% (qtq). By segment, office space was reported as the main driver (2.26%, qtq), especially strata title offices in Surabaya. The apartment segment also posted gains (2.01%, qtq), primarily on strata title apartments in Balikpapan where developers have advanced the mixed-use concept, as well as in Banten, Surabaya and Jabodebek with the development of TBS Tower, LRT City Urban Signature Ciracas and Transpark Juanda. Furthermore, the supply of hotels was also observed to increase (1.60%, qtq), particularly in Denpasar, with the development of several new hotels, including 5 stars (Movenpick Resort and Spa Jimbaran Bay) and 4 stars in Jimbaran, Pecatu, Seminyak and Canggu (Graph 3). Graph 3. Commercial Property Supply Index Growth (qtq) Annually, the Survey pointed to a slower increase in the supply of commercial property, with growth decelerating from 1.39% (yoy) to 1.37% (yoy). Nevertheless, the respondents reported strong growth in the apartment segment (5.89%, yoy), particularly strata title, as well as the office segment (4.10%, yoy), primarily affecting strata title office space in Jabodebek and Surabaya (Graph 4). Graph 4. Commercial Property Supply Index Growth (yoy) 3
4. Commercial Property Development C . Commercial Property Demand The Commercial Property Demand Index (CPDI) ticked upwards on a quarterly and annual basis. Respondents confirmed stronger demand for commercial property in the fourth quarter of 2017, as reflected by an increase in the Commercial Property Demand Index (CPSI) from 0.22% (qtq) to 0.32% (qtq) (Graph 5). Most demand for commercial property originated from the apartment segment (2.25%, qtq), particularly strata title, along with office space (1.21%, qtq), primarily strata title office space in Central Surabaya, with local business owners, investors and end-users driving up demand. In addition, the respondents also confirmed stronger demand for industrial estates (0.14%, qtq). Graph 5. Commercial Property Demand Index Growth (qtq) Annually, rising demand for commercial property slowed from 1.25% (yoy) to 1.17% (yoy) in the current period (Graph 6). Nonetheless, developers reported strong demand for apartments (7.76%, yoy), primarily medium and medium-low strata title apartments located within close proximity to universities. In addition to apartments, the Survey also revealed increasing demand for office space (3.36%, yoy), particularly strata title. Graph 6. Commercial Property Demand Index Growth (yoy) 4
5. Commercial Property Development PROPERTY LOANS The banking industry reported an increase in the growth of new consumer loans in the fourth quarter of 2017 , accelerating from 10.06% (yoy) in the period prior to 10.51% (yoy) (Graph 7). The main drivers of consumer credit growth were housing loans for apartments, particularly medium apartments (25.18%, yoy), contrasting the -10.24% (yoy) contraction reported on loans for small apartments. Graph 7. Growth (yoy) of Consumptions, Flats/Apartments, and Shophouses/Officehouses Credit The banking sector was inclined to lower lending rates on consumer loans in the reporting period to 12.65% p.a., while also reducing lending rates on housing loans for apartments (Graph 8). Consequently, the average lending rate on housing loans for small apartments (≤ 21m2) stood at 12.00% per annum or 10.40% per annum for medium apartments (22-70m2) and 9.65% per annum for large apartments (> 70m2). Graph 8. Trend of Consumptions, Flats/Apartments, and Shophouses/Officehouses Credit Interest Rate 5
6. Table 1 . Commercial Property Price Index (Total) and Commercial Property Price Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area Note: *) revised data 6
7. Table 2 . Commercial Property Price Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area 7
8. Table 3 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, qtq) Note: *) revised data 8
9. Table 4 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area (%, qtq) 9
10. Table 5 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, yoy) Note: *) revised data 10
11. Table 6 . Growth of Commercial Property Price Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area (%, yoy) 11
12. Table 7 . Commercial Property Supply Index (Total) and Commercial Property Supply Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area 12
13. Table 8 . Commercial Property Supply Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area 13
14. Table 9 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, qtq) 14
15. Table 10 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area (%, qtq) 15
16. Table 11 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, yoy ) 16
17. Table 12 . Growth of Commercial Property Supply Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area (%, yoy) 17
18. Table 13 . Commercial Property Demand Index (Total) and Commercial Property Demand Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area 18
19. Table 14 . Commercial Property Demand Index in Semarang, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Denpasar, and Palembang Area 19
20. Table 15 . Growth of Commercial Property Demand Index (Total) & Growth of Commercial Property Demand Index in Jabodebek, Banten, Bandung, Makassar, and Medan Area (%, qtq) 20