Indonesia: Banking Survey - 1Q 2017

Transcription

1.    (%, WNB) 100 (%, qtq) 87.9 75.3 80 30 24.9 52.9 0 -4.0 13.7 20 -9.0 I -14.5 -15.0 -15.9 II III IV I II 2014 III -5.2 -15 * estimation -18.3 IV 15 62.6 12.7 31.3 21.7 45 85.6 78.8 66.7 20.1 17.2 0 73.7 56.9 60 40 98.5 39.2 84.0 I II 2015 III IV I 2016 -30 II* 2017 WNB New Loans Growth (qtq) - Banking Survey (LHS) New Loans Growth (qtq) - Realization (RHS) (% QTQ) 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 -2,0 -4,0 -6,0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 2015 Total Loans 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2016 Working Capital Loans 2 2017 Investment Loans Consumer Loans Source: Bank Indonesia (thousand unit) (thousand unit) 800 120 700 89.1 88.3 93.0 90.5 100 83.6 600 80 500 526.2 550.8 509.4 60 491.8 485.4 400 40 I II III 2014 IV I II III 2015 Motorcycles (LHS) * Sales average on January-February 2017 IV I II III IV 2016 I* 2017 Cars (RHS) Source: AISI, GAIKINDO 1
2. Period II-2016 Total Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Economic Sectors * Group of Debtors Usage Orientation Loans in Details III-2016 IV-2016 I-2017 59.4 54.5 84.2 51.9 55.3 68.0 69.9 65.9 36.1 26.8 72.8 40.5 46.3 34.2 79.6 49.1 5.3 -6.3 39.1 18.6 22.7 23.5 37.1 10.2 17.6 9.0 24.9 21.1 10.2 3.1 23.8 15.6 49.0 55.8 49.0 39.1 21.8 34.4 42.5 14.8 -17.2 -1.9 14.7 -19.7 46.9 56.2 57.9 54.7 40.7 38.7 30.3 15.9 40.8 39.5 44.3 9.6 32.9 47.3 71.7 4.9 34.4 36.1 50.6 32.0 27.5 41.2 32.8 29.2 31.1 23.3 -0.4 -7.8 29.4 31.5 10.1 24.1 -8.5 7.8 32.2 33.5 40.5 48.4 8.5 0.0 0.2 20.1 36.1 -2.9 -3.0 9.4 39.1 22.5 -2.1 20.6 36.8 -11.0 9.2 9.8 11.1 12.5 14.6 17.1 13.5 35.7 25.1 29.4 29.1 32.9 47.9 35.5 44.4 24.2 58.0 37.4 61.6 37.2 38.9 34.4 36.3 28.5 4.3 20.6 2.8 14.9 43.6 44.3 46.8 35.9 78.8 62.6 85.6 52.9 Respondent (%) III-2016 IV-2016 Working Capital loans 34.1 31.7 36.6 25.0 37.5 Investment loans 31.7 29.3 36.6 25.0 42.5 Consumption loans 43.9 48.8 51.2 40.0 50.0 Housing/ Property 24.4 29.3 22.0 27.5 35.0 Motor Vehicles 14.6 24.4 17.1 15.0 25.0 Multi Purpose Loans 9.8 12.2 14.6 20.0 15.0 Credit Card 4.9 9.8 4.9 5.0 2.5 Non-collateral loans 9.8 4.9 7.3 2.5 12.5 Mining and Quarrying 29.3 26.8 36.6 22.5 32.5 Manufacturing 31.7 34.1 26.8 25.0 27.5 Construction 31.7 36.6 39.0 22.5 30.0 Transportation, Storage and Communication 26.8 22.0 34.1 30.0 42.5 Financial Intermediaries Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Cummunal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Cummunal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises 31.7 24.4 41.5 27.5 32.5 4.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 5.0 31.7 36.6 41.5 30.0 37.5 22.0 29.3 29.3 15.0 27.5 Export Loans 24.4 22.0 22.0 12.5 22.5 Import Loans 17.1 17.1 17.1 12.5 20.0 Other Loans 22.0 22.0 26.8 20.0 25.0 64.4 73.3 76.7 65.9 77.3 Total I-2016 II-2016 I-2017 * 5 economic sectors that recorded the most deviation in last quarter 2
3. Priority Quarter Year I-2017 II-2017 2016 2017 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 (% WNB) 60 50.6 Tighter 40 29.0 24.3 21.0 18.8 14.6 15.0 12.5 29.1 28.8 21.0 20 15.5 3.5 Looser 0 * estimation -20 II III 2014 IV I II III 2015 IV I II III IV 2016 I II* 2017 Deposit Growth (%, WNB) Quarter Year I-2017 II-2017 2016 2017 94.0 89.1 91.4 97.3 95.6 91.6 96.1 94.6 88.7 88.1 60.8 72.1 89.5 90.4 86.3 98.6 51.6 14.4 44.6 36.2 80.4 33.2 73.6 86.0 54.0 60.8 73.6 72.8 61.3 19.8 53.3 72.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 70.6 0 82.3 0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 93.4 88.0 90.7 96.5 95.3 90.7 95.8 94.4 88.2 87.7 61.0 72.1 89.1 89.4 85.9 98.3 3
4. INTEREST RATE 1 ) Quarter I-2017 2) Quarter II-2017 2017 4) 3) Survey on Quarter II-2017 Average Range Average Range Average Range 6.29% 9.68% 4.32% - 8.26% 6.67% - 12.69% 6.29% 9.64% 4.36% - 8.22% 6.63% - 12.65% 6.30% 9.62% 4.45% - 8.15% 6.66% - 12.57% 1.45% 3.26% 0.48% - 2.43% 1.23% - 5.29% 1.49% 3.31% 0.5% - 2.47% 1.26% - 5.35% 1.54% 3.33% 0.56% - 2.52% 1.29% - 5.37% 12.50% 12.62% 14.60% 9.63% - 15.36% 9.66% - 15.57% 10.65% - 18.56% 12.22% 12.26% 14.54% 10.1% - 14.33% 10.51% - 14.01% 10.53% - 18.54% 12.18% 12.24% 14.53% 10.11% - 14.26% 10.53% - 13.96% 10.55% - 18.51% 5.95% 6.01% 7.64% 4.01% - 7.89% 4.05% - 7.96% 6.08% - 9.19% 5.96% 6.04% 7.70% 4.01% - 7.91% 4.13% - 7.95% 6.16% - 9.23% 5.98% 6.04% 7.54% 4.09% - 7.87% 4.13% - 7.94% 5.79% - 9.3% 12.13% 12.81% 30.66% 13.82% 20.09% 9.89% - 14.37% 9.91% - 15.72% 26.07% - 35.24% 9.45% - 18.19% 12.18% - 28.00% 12.08% 12.68% 30.35% 13.79% 20.31% 9.81% - 14.34% 9.77% - 15.58% 25.42% - 35.29% 9.42% - 18.17% 12.27% - 28.36% 11.97% 12.63% 29.02% 13.75% 20.32% 9.71% - 14.22% 9.73% - 15.54% 22.77% - 35.28% 9.34% - 18.17% 12.25% - 28.4% 1) 2) 3) 4) 4
5. (%, YOY) 14 13.1 13.2 Survey Q IV '16 Survey Q I '17 13 11.6 12 10.4 11 10 9 7.9 8 7 6 Realization in 2014 Realization in 2015 Realization in 2016 Projection 2017 Source:: Bank Indonesia (%, YOY) (%, WNB) 98.3 100 96.0 95 95.2 16 14 12.3 12 90 9.6 10 85 7.3 85.9 2015 2016 8 80 6 2014 2017 Realization Deposit Growth (RHS) WNB Estimated Deposit Growth - Banking Survey (LHS) 5