GCC Daily Market Update - 7 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 7 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,476.8 22,092.8 5,899.9 7,511.7 12,297.7 5,203.4 108,545.3 19,952.3 27,562.7 3,262.1 32,325.4 4.7 66.7 8.7 36.9 143.0 73.0 1,391.5 (76.9) 31.7 (10.8) 87.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 (0.4) 0.1 (0.3) 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.9 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.9 (0.3) (0.6) 10.6 11.8 21.3 5.2 7.1 7.0 38.9 4.4 25.3 5.1 21.4 9,345.4 7,094.3 4,585.5 3,665.9 6,812.0 5,022.4 1,320.0 1,684.8 3,352.2 (52.7) 8.7 (10.5) (9.2) (13.7) (35.1) (2.6) (0.1) (0.0) (0.6) 0.1 (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) (0.7) (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (0.6) 0.0 0.4 0.9 (0.6) (0.0) (0.6) 0.6 0.3 (10.0) (1.7) 1.1 4.1 18.7 (12.5) 8.4 7.2 15.3 52.4 49.6 2.8 1,258.3 288.5 0.4 0.6 (0.0) (9.5) 0.7 0.8 1.1 (0.9) (0.8) 0.2 (0.6) (1.4) (0.1) (0.7) (0.4) (7.7) (7.7) (25.5) 9.3 15.1 Global Markets across the Atlantic traded higher on Friday, on the back of encouraging US jobs data. US non-farm payroll surged by 209,000 jobs, which was better than expectations. The US market inched higher, with Dow Jones rising for the eight straight session to reach record high levels. Banking shares were among the notable gainers, as strong jobs report lifted prospects of Fed rate hike. Most European indices were in green, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index settling 1.0% higher. European banks, with significant operations in the US, also benefited with increased prospects of US Fed rate hike. The UK’s benchmark traded higher, on the back of weaker GBP, which benefited the shares of listed exporters. Asian markets were mixed, as investors exercised caution ahead of the release of the US jobs data. The Japanese Nikkei index fell 0.4%, amid a stronger Yen. GCC Most GCC markets traded lower yesterday. Dubai’s DFM index inched lower, after rising for five consecutive sessions. Abu Dhabi benchmark declined 0.2%, driven by losses in index-heavyweight Dana Gas. Saudi markets bucked the overall trend and was up 0.1%, helped by gains in the Banking sector. Samba Financial Group rose 3.9%, after increasing its interim dividend payout. Emaar Economic City however retreated 3.6%, after the company reported a significant drop in its Q2-17 earnings, due to sluggish residential sales and higher financial charges. Qatar Qatar market traded lower yesterday with local and Gulf institutional investors among the net sellers. Increased bearish bets in Telecommunication and Industrial shares weighed on the overall market. Total trading volume and turnover climbed, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrial sectors accounting for almost 70.4% of the total trading value. Out of 44 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 25 declined, 12 advanced and 5 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.2 1.4 4.0 36.4 DSM 20 15.9 1.6 3.7 32.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.6 3.3 756.3 UAE (ADX) 12.4 1.4 4.5 28.8 UAE (DFM) 17.1 1.3 3.9 86.6 Kuwait (KSE) 18.4 1.2 5.2 22.9 Oman (MSM) 11.6 1.1 5.4 1.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.2 0.8 5.9 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar German Co For Al Ahli Bank Qatari Investors Group Barwa Real Estate Co National Leasing Top Losers Ooredoo Qsc Al Meera Cons. Goods Qatar Industrial Manu Medicare Group Industries Qatar Close Price 8.4 32.4 48.0 34.7 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 (17.3) (12.8) (17.9) 4.4 (7.2) (32.6) (17.0) (5.9) (3.2) (20.7) 31.7 NA 5.4 10.1 6.1 22.1 777.6 10.3 222.3 NA 95.0 155.0 42.5 82.1 94.4 (2.9) (3.4) (0.9) (1.7) (1.6) (3.0) (2.1) (2.1) (2.0) (1.7) (6.7) (11.7) (4.5) 30.5 (19.7) (0.7) (29.9) (5.3) (14.5) (14.2) 20.4 16.3 8.0 117.8 98.0 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 16.7 16.3 9.6 34.4 17.9 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 10/May 24/May 30.0 9,345.4 20.0 10.0 0.0 7/Jun 21/Jun Index Volume (mn) 5/Jul 19/Jul 2/Aug Index Value Closing Level 2,877.7 5,552.5 2,815.8 4,069.4 2,080.3 1,163.8 1,989.8 1D Change (%) (0.2) (0.6) (0.9) (0.3) (0.7) (2.6) (0.9) Buy (%) 63.1 19.1 82.2 11.6 6.2 17.8 Sell (%) 60.5 22.1 82.6 8.7 8.7 17.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 7 , 2017 shareholders will receive 2.5 shares of Al Ahlia stock for each share their share. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US trade deficit decreased 5.9% MoM in June-17 to USD 43.6bn as exports hit the highest level in 2 ½ years. Exports rose by 1.2% MoM to USD 194.4bn while imports dipped by 0.2% MoM to USD 238.0bn.  (Source: Nasdaq)  US non-farm payrolls surged by 209,000 jobs in July-17, after spiking by an upwardly revised 231,000 jobs in June-17. Average hourly employee earnings rose by 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY to USD 26.4 in July-17. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in July-17. (Source: Nasdaq)  US factory orders surged by 3.0% MoM in June-17 led by transportation equipment, which soared by 19.0% during the month. However excluding the jump in orders for transportation equipment, factory orders fell by 0.2%. (Source: Nasdaq)  UK car registrations decreased 9.3% YoY to 161,997 units in July-17 while demand for alternatively fueled vehicles surged 64.9% as consumers continued to invest in the latest low-emission fuel technology. (Source: Market Insider)  Australia’s retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% MoM in June-17 to AUD 26.2bn. Sales of household goods rose by 0.9%, while that of clothing footwear and personal accessory rose by 0.8%. Retail sales increased 1.5% QoQ in Q2-17 to AUD 76.2bn. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s total labor cash gross earnings dropped 0.4% YoY in June-17. Contractual gross earnings grew 0.4% annually in June-17, while special cash earnings declined by 1.5% during the same period. (Source: Arabia)  The Government of Oman has signed a USD 3.6bn five-year senior unsecured term loan with a group of Chinese financial institutions which follows the USD 5.0bn multi-tranche bond and USD 2.0bn sukuk priced in early 2017. (Source: Oman News agency)  Oman based Nama Group called consultants to be part of the process for a contract to provide advisory services on the restructuring of the water sector in the sultanate. The Government of Oman is restructuring the institutions which develops policy, provide services and regulate the country’s water supplies and wastewater services. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS   The ‘Own your Factory in Qatar in 72 Hours’ project, a government initiative has attracted 9,349 applications from local and international companies representing major industrial sectors. The project attracted investors mainly in eight areas that are food, paper, medical, chemical, electrical, machinery and automotive, rubber and plastics, and metals. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Chamber (QC) has announced that two agreements have been signed between Qatari and Turkish companies to start joint projects. GCC NEWS  The market size of the UAE facilities management industry will reach USD 12.5bn in 2017 and would cross the USD 17.0bn mark by 2021, according to TechSci Research. The rise in value would be driven by an estimated USD 629.0bn worth construction contracts up to 2021 in the country. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) has given contracts worth AED 129.6mn (USD 35.0mn) for 1,570 transformers in an attempt to expand the electricity distribution network, said MD & CEO of Dewa. All the transformers will be delivered by April-18. (Source: Trade (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  The US-Qatar Business Council has said that foreign governments attempting to exert pressure on American companies to cease business operations with Qatar or Qatari-owned businesses would amount to the violation of the US law. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  QNB said that its London branch received the approvals of the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority for its regulated Home Finance license designed to assist wealthy individual customers with buying property in the UK. (Source: The Arabia)     Dubai based Emaar Hospitality Group is planning to open a new hotel, Vida Dubai Mall which will be linked directly to the Dubai Mall. This project in collaboration with Vida Hotels and Resorts and will open in 2021. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) has introduced its second series of Certificates of Deposit which will be available for individuals and corporate customers in QAR and USD for different terms of one and two years. The Certificates of Deposit will have an annual profit of 3.3% in Qatari Riyal for one year and 3.8% for two years. (Source: The Peninsula) Interactive investor)  Bahrain’s Ministry of Works, Municipalities Affairs and Urban Planning said that it has completed 65.0% work in the Muqaba Sewerage Network Project at Block 517 in the Northern Governorate. (Source: Trade Peninsula)  Qatar Stock Exchange has approved the listing of Investment Holding Group (IHG's) shares on 14th August-17, which would increase the number of firms listed on the exchange to 45. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Arabia based Samba Financial Group, reported a 3.3% YoY declined in Q2-17. The bank attributed the fall in net profit to a 6.5% rise in operating expenses. (Source: Reuters) Milaha, maritime and logistics company, has announced the launch of in-country operations in Oman. Milaha is initially setting up warehousing and 3PL services within the Sohar Free Zone, while it continues to explore further expansion in Oman. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Kuwait's Ministry of Public Works said that they are planning to impose a toll for using the new Sheikh Jaber Al Ahmad Bridge, which is expected to be opened by the end of 2018. The bridge will shorten the distance between Kuwait City and the Subiya area from the present 104.0 km to 37.5 km for drivers. (Source: Trade Arabia) Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company’s (MPHC) net profit declined by 4.0% YoY to QAR 468.6mn in H1-17 and the earnings per share stood at QAR 0.4. Reduced sales volumes due to periodic turnaround in some of the group companies’ plants were offset by the increase in selling prices (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Islamic Insurance Company’s (QIIC) shareholders profit grew by 1.0% YoY in H1-17 to reach QAR 36.1mn. Overall assets grew by 2.8% to QAR 845.8mn, while earnings per share increased to QAR 2.4 in H117. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qinvest reported its net profit at QAR 34.6mn (USD 9.5mn) in H1-17. Revenues stood at QAR 209.0mn (USD 57.0mn), resulting in an operating profit of QAR 113.0mn (USD 31.0mn). (Source: Gulf Times) The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is considering a range of financing options, including a USD 5.0bn bank loan, to promote prospects of smart growth and ensure sustainable expansion of its business. (Source: WAM)  Bahrain based engineering company, Ahmed Mansoor Al A'ali (AMA), has received a contract worth USD 12.0mn to execute two packages of the Bahrain LNG project. (Source: Gulf Daily News)  The merger of Solidarity General Takaful and Al Ahlia Insurance Company of Bahrain has been approved by the shareholders of the two companies. Under agreement, Solidarity General Takaful 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 7 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1803 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.6900 EUR/QAR 4.2981 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3070 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9727 GBP/QAR 4.7594 USD/CAD 1.2645 CHF/QAR 3.7437 AUD/USD 0.7922 CAD/QAR 2.8798 NZD/USD 0.7409 AUD/QAR 2.8848 USD/INR 63.0825 INR/QAR 0.0577 USD/TRY 3.5280 TRY/QAR 1.0322 USD/ZAR 13.4487 ZAR/QAR 0.2708 USD/BRL 3.1318 BRL/QAR 1.1627 FX Commentary The USD traded higher against its key counterparts on Friday, rising from its 15-month low levels, as better-than-expected US jobs data kept the doors for additional rate hikes open. The dollar index rose 0.8% to settle at 93.447 on Friday. The EUR weakened against the USD, amid broad-based strength in the greenback. However, better than expected German factory orders data, trimmed some losses in the common currency. The GBP continued to decline on Friday, after the Bank of England trimmed the growth and inflation outlook on the UK economy. The CAD inched lower, as better than expected Canadian jobs and manufacturing activity data was offset by weak merchandise trade data. The AUD traded lower, after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its growth outlook for the Australian economy. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.31 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.15) 1.90 2.04 2.19 2.45 2.91 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 1.00 1.15 1.32 1.53 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.16% 1.36% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.85% 3.09% 3.32% 1.82% 2.09% 2.27% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.37% 2.84% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.4 (1.0) Turkey 175.0 (76.3) UK 18.3 (14.7) Brazil 201.3 (40.3) Germany 14.7 (10.0) Egypt 377.6 (31.5) France 19.5 (29.9) Abu Dhabi Italy 136.7 (43.1) Greece 614.5 Russia 157.9 Japan 27.8 0.8 2.0% 1.61% 1.90% 1.0% 0.99% 2.23% 2.06% 1.48% 1.32% 1.19% 2.52% 1.85% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 55.0 (5.0) Bahrain 245.3 (15.5) (464.8) Dubai 120.0 (21.9) (24.5) Qatar 93.3 (24.5) Saudi Arabia 91.8 3.5 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Jun 0.20% 1.20% 09:00 Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY Jun 3.70% 5.00% 10:30 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Jul 0.30% -1.00% 02:50 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Jun ¥860.5b ¥1653.9b 02:50 Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis Jun ¥571.5b ¥115.1b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Medicare Group NA NA NA 14.7 (11.1) (17.7) Al Khaleej Takaful Group NA NA NA 2.6 331.1 (81.4) Samba Financial Group NA NA NA 1,271.0 (3.2) 3.3 (10.6) Emaar Malls 788.0 0.4 (5.8) 482.0 5.3 Mobile Telecommunications Co 261.1 (5.0) 5.7 44.1 (1.5) 15.2 1,354.1 (20.2) (14.2) 620.2 (5.7) (2.5) Aldar Properties Emaar Economic City Bupa Arabia For Cooperative Saudi Ground Services Co NA NA NA 35.0 (56.1) NA 130.8 43.9 383.7 145.8 21.9 297.3 NA NA NA 122.3 (37.9) (21.2) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 7 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 3rd August 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 1.9 5.7 4.9 3.6 0.0 4.9 7.0 2.3 5.8 3.3 5.2 3.6 5.7 3.8 5.9 0.0 8.6 5.3 6.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.6 3.8 2.1 6.9 4.9 4.2 3.5 4.3 1.9 5.1 5.9 2.5 7.3 3.8 0.0 7.4 5.0 3.6 0.0 2.9 3.3 5.5 5.3 5.2 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.9 2.2 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.7 4.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.2 2.7 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.7 2.4 0.4 2.7 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 9.9 70.8 31.2 9.3 75.7 11.1 15.1 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.1 10.8 9.9 24.6 11.4 7.0 35.2 16.7 43.0 13.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 11.7 5.9 12.1 15.8 (H) (‫)م‬ 18.2 16.6 14.1 21.8 9.8 12.3 17.0 29.1 9.1 20.7 15.0 13.9 19.0 10.1 17.0 24.6 10.5 13.9 17.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 24.4 13.4 11.6 17.7 13.6 13.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 11.0 2.4 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.6 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.3 0.6 1.6 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 54.5 34.1 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 16.2 112.9 41.6 12.3 19.5 52.9 10.9 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.9 20.2 21.3 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.7 46.7 11.2 12.6 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.4 23.1 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 31.8 31.5 18.2 31.8 52.4 13.1 41.3 14.1 7.6 97.2 57.5 137.5 8.6 77.1 83.8 158.4 26.3 109.5 8.2 9.4 65.9 74.5 11.2 20.6 96.0 13.2 199.9 47.4 43.4 73.9 17.0 14.1 70.0 29.7 59.0 34.3 13.1 11.2 17.0 97.9 9.1 48.0 18.1 65.7 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4