GCC Daily Market Update - 6 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 6 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,457.9 (18.7) 21,753.3 (234.3) 5,932.7 (55.2) 7,372.9 (38.6) 12,123.7 21.5 5,086.6 (17.4) 108,873.0 (1,137.5) 19,385.8 (122.4) 27,741.4 1.1 3,384.3 4.7 31,809.6 107.3 (0.8) (1.1) (0.9) (0.5) 0.2 (0.3) (1.0) (0.6) 0.0 0.1 0.3 (0.6) (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) 0.6 0.0 (1.0) (1.3) (0.8) 0.7 0.2 9.8 10.1 22.0 3.2 5.6 4.6 39.3 1.4 26.1 9.0 19.5 8,800.6 7,258.6 4,478.7 3,624.2 6,920.6 5,063.1 1,302.5 1,672.6 3,372.6 NA NA (2.6) (10.9) 28.5 10.6 NA 0.8 (6.9) NA NA (0.1) (0.3) 0.4 0.2 NA 0.0 (0.2) (6.4) 2.3 0.2 (0.4) 0.4 0.2 (1.9) 0.1 (0.1) (15.7) 0.7 (1.5) 2.6 20.4 (12.4) 6.7 6.4 16.0 53.4 48.7 3.0 1,340.6 310.8 1.0 1.4 (0.1) 14.0 1.0 2.0 2.9 (3.2) 1.1 0.3 1.5 2.9 (2.3) 1.7 1.3 (6.5) (9.6) (20.2) 16.4 24.5 Global Heightened geopolitical tensions arising from the Korean peninsula weighed on investor sentiment across the globe during yesterday’s trading session. US stocks closed lower yesterday, amid sluggish progress of the Trump administration to introduce reforms in the US economy. The S&P 500 index closed 0.8% lower, after rising for six consecutive sessions, on account of losses in Financials, Materials and Industrial sectors. Defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples were among the notable gainers, amid safe haven buying on the part of investors. In Europe, the UK benchmark inched lower on the back the strength in the GBP. Only the safe haven sectors like Utilities ended higher. The Japanese Nikkei index declined 0.6%, as the safe haven yen strengthened amid geopolitical tensions. GCC GCC markets witnessed a mixed trading yesterday. Saudi markets remained closed on account of Eid holidays. Kuwaiti benchmark outperformed its peer indices, amid increased hopes of inclusion in FTSE’s secondary emerging index. The country’s leading logistics player, Agility rose 1.7%, which is considered to be the prime beneficiary of the fresh funds flowing in following the upgrade. In Abu Dhabi, Dana Gas advanced 5.5%, continuing on its previous session’s rally after the Iraqi government announced an immediate pay of USD 1bn to the company’s gas consortium. Abu Dhabi benchmark, however, closed lower. Dubai’s DFM index slipped 0.3% in red, on the back of losses in Transportation and Services indices. Among the individual stocks, DXB Entertainments continued to inch higher, after declining for a month. Qatar Qatar’s market was closed on account of Eid Al- Adha holidays. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.5 1.3 4.3 51.1 DSM 20 15.2 1.5 3.9 43.8 9,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.7 1.7 3.3 628.7 9,000 UAE (ADX) 16.5 1.3 4.6 75.7 UAE (DFM) 24.0 1.3 3.9 50.1 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 60.6 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.1 5.2 2.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers NA NA NA NA NA Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,000 30.0 20.0 8,800.6 8,500 11/Jun 10.0 0.0 25/Jun 9/Jul 23/Jul Index Volume (mn) 6/Aug 20/Aug Index Value Closing Level NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1D Change (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Buy (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Sell (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 6 , 2017 Properties, has launched its phase 3 of Casa Flores villas and apartments at the Motor City Green Community project, company’s CEO said. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS    US factory orders jumped to 3.3% in July-17 as compared to an increase of 3.2% in June-17. Excluding the sharp decline in orders for transportation equipment, the factory orders rose by 0.5% MoM in July-17, according to The Commerce Department report. (Source: Nasdaq) UK car market reported a decline in new car registrations by 6.4% YoY in August-17. The number of new car’s registered were around 76,000 during the month. (Source: Market Insider) Eurozone retail sales volumes declined by 0.3% MoM in July-17 due to decrease in sales volume of food, drinks and tobacco by 0.5% MoM. Non-food product sales volume rose by 0.1% MoM during the month.  Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties has launched AED 2.4bn (USD 653.2mn) worth of new waterfront development project, Water’s Edge, on Yas Island with prices starting from AED 0.5mn, company’s CEO said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia and Russia are planning to further extend the oil production cut deal which was agreed between the members of both OPEC and non-Opec members. The current deal is due of expiration in March-18, according to reports. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia published its final VAT implementing regulations after the issue of VAT law on 28th July-17. The legislation comprises the law and the regulations which will help businesses to have the complete set of information necessary in order to analyze the VAT implications and to prepare it before 1st January-18. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait's Sovereign Wealth Fund investments in the US are estimated to be worth USD 300.0mn and are diversified between stocks, bonds (primarily US treasuries), real estate and technology, the US Embassy in Kuwait said. (Source: WAM)  Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company inked an agreement with French oil giant, Total, to buy Total’s remaining 15.0% stake, worth USD 317.0mn, in Gina Krog oilfield at Norway. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s banking sector’s outlook has been downgraded to negative by Moody’s Investors Service driven by reduction in the government’s ability to support the country’s banks, weaker economic growth and tightening liquidity. (Source: Bloomberg) (Source: Market Insider)  Japan must proceed with a sales tax hike to 10.0% from the current 8.0% by 2019 to bring its fiscal balance in order and to cover the rising social welfare costs of a rapidly aging society, Chief of Liberal Democratic Party said. (Source: Reuters)  Australia’s central bank left interest rates at a record low of 1.5% led by bank’s expectation that growth in the Australian economy will gradually pick up over the coming year. (Source: Bloomberg)  South Korea reported a rise in its current account surplus by 3.6% MoM to USD 7.3bn in July-17. Goods account surplus rose by 0.4% YoY to USD 10.7bn but services account reported a deficit of USD 3.3bn as compared to USD 1.6bn in July-16 due to deterioration in the travel account. (Source: Market Insider)  Turkey’s trade deficit widened 22.6% YoY in August-17 to USD 5.9bn. Exports increased 12.4% to USD 13.3bn, while imports increased 15.3% to USD 19.2bn. (Source: Peninsula)   Australia’s GDP expanded 0.8% QoQ in Q2-17 led by domestic spending which rose 1.0% QoQ driven by a 0.7% rise in household consumption, which accounted for half of the overall increase in GDP. Oman is planning to sell 1.0bn barrels of crude oil in November-17 in Dubai Mercantile Exchange to maximize the use of the strong demand in Asia, according to Omani ministry of oil and gas. (Source: Mubasher)  Bahraini authorities have implemented worth BHD 96.5mn (USD 254.0mn), Sitra Sewerage Network 602 project, which involves extension of 504m-long main connections, 405-m long subconnections and construction of 72 inspection chambers for both the main and sub-connections.(Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: ABC) GCC NEWS    Dubai’s average office rents fell by 5.1% during H1-17 as the market activity remains relatively subdued, according to Knight Frank Dubai Office report. The occupancy rates for Grade A office rents dropped by 4.4 percentage points during this period. (Source: Construction week) Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) reported that 5.5mn passengers travelled by public transport and taxicabs in Dubai during Eid Al-Adha holiday. Out of the total, metro passenger amounted to 1.8mn with 1.2mn passengers carried on the Red Line compared to 0.6mn passengers on the Green Line, Director of Strategic Planning said. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Nakheel developers will unveil its diversified range of projects worth more than AED 3.2bn at Cityscape Global 2017 which will start from 11th September-17 until 13th September-17. The company is scheduled to launch 6 new residential, retail and hospitality developments in Dubai. Nakheel expects the value of its construction contracts to reach AED 12.0bn by the end of 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)    Dubai based Emaar Hospitality has planned to extend its operation in South Asia by entering into a contract with Maldives based Finolhu Investment, to operate Address Madivaru Maldives Resort and Spa, a beachfront resort at a private island in the Indian Ocean, company’s CEO said. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Financial Services Authority has granted a brokerage license to BPL Global, a credit and political risk insurance broker to conduct insurance intermediation business in Dubai from Dubai International Financial Centre. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based National Bonds Corporation’s real estate arm, National QATAR NEWS  The Hamad port, which is worth USD 7.4bn was inaugurated on 4th September-17 and is expected to record more than 35.0% of the region’s trade in the next 2 years, Qatar’s transport minister said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s interest rates on credit cards and vehicle loans increased in the range of 0.32% to 1.16% and interest rates on deposits & credit facilities for all maturities, except for 1-3 years, increased in the range of 12 to 38 bps in 2016, according to QCB Report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Bank is in talks with foreign lenders to raise long-term debt either through private placement or public debt sale after completing QAR 1.3bn (USD 352.9mn) rights offer earlier in 2017, Bank’s CEO said. (Source: Bloomberg)  Qatar Ports Management Company and Oman Global Logistics Group inked an MoU for the development of logistics, shipping and passenger ferry services between Qatar and Oman. The agreement also speaks of developing a joint strategy to help increase cargo business to Hamad Port and Omani ports. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatari shipping company, Milaha, is planning to launch the fastest direct service between Doha and the Pakistani port city of Karachi to establish new trade routes to remove country from land, air and sea blockade from its Arab neighbors. (Source: Aljazeera)  As per experts, Qatar's hospitality segment would see unprecedented growth and hospitality revenues are expected to peak at USD 1.6bn in the next three years. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 6 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1944 USD/QAR 3.6415 108.8100 EUR/QAR 4.3494 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3063 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9552 GBP/QAR 4.7569 USD/CAD 1.2374 CHF/QAR 3.8123 AUD/USD 0.7996 CAD/QAR 2.9429 NZD/USD 0.7235 AUD/QAR 2.9117 USD/INR 63.6325 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.4389 TRY/QAR 1.0589 USD/ZAR 12.9074 ZAR/QAR 0.2821 USD/BRL 3.1174 BRL/QAR 1.1681 FX Commentary The USD traded lower against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index down by 0.3%. The weakness in the dollar was triggered after the US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that the recent rate hikes from the central bank have weighed on the inflation in the US, due to which it is trailing its target. Investors also shunned the dollar in favor of safe haven currencies like JPY and CHF, as North Korean geopolitical tensions weighed on the risk appetite of the investors. The CHF also found support, after the Swiss consumer index inched higher in August-17. The EUR traded higher against the USD, amid a mixed bag of macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The AUD strengthened against the USD, after the Reserve Bank of Australia praised the economic conditions in the nation, while leaving its interest rates unchanged. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.32 1.71 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) 1.96 2.05 2.24 2.45 2.94 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.92 1.11 1.33 1.54 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.03 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.06% 1.29% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.80% 3.02% 3.25% 1.65% 1.90% 2.07% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.28% 2.69% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.4 0.8 Turkey 162.3 (81.9) UK 21.4 (1.2) Brazil 190.6 (28.6) Germany 15.2 (8.1) Egypt 358.6 (4.3) France 22.7 (41.2) Abu Dhabi Italy 146.5 (41.4) Greece 573.6 Russia 141.7 Japan 32.1 7.1 2.0% 1.51% 2.02% 1.85% 1.72% 1.0% 1.39% 1.25% 0.98% 1.13% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.35% 1.69% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 55.1 9.8 Bahrain 239.2 10.8 (522.8) Dubai 116.9 (0.5) (23.8) Qatar 92.6 (25.2) Saudi Arabia 87.1 (1.2) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM 09:00 Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY 10:30 Germany Markit Germany Construction PMI 11:00 Italy 11:00 Italy 11:10 Germany 11:10 Period Survey Prior Jul 0.20% 1.00% Jul 5.80% 5.10% Aug - 55.8 Retail Sales MoM Jul (0.20%) 0.60% Retail Sales YoY Jul 1.20% 1.50% Markit Germany Retail PMI Aug - 50.7 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Aug - 51 11:10 France Markit France Retail PMI Aug - 54.1 11:10 Italy Markit Italy Retail PMI Aug - 47.3 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-01st - (2.30%) 15:30 Canada Int'l Merchandise Trade Jul (3.30b) (3.60b) 15:30 US Trade Balance Jul ($44.7b) ($43.6b) 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Sep-04th - (0.20%) 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI Aug F 56.9 56.9 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Aug F - 56 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Sep-06th 0.75% 0.75% 17:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Aug 55.6 53.9 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 6 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 30th August 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 8.3 2.2 6.2 5.2 3.9 0.0 5.1 7.3 2.4 5.8 3.5 5.9 4.4 6.0 4.0 6.2 0.0 9.5 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.4 0.0 4.4 4.7 4.0 2.2 7.2 5.4 4.4 3.8 4.2 2.0 4.3 6.2 2.5 7.9 4.5 0.0 8.2 5.6 4.0 0.0 3.2 3.4 5.9 5.5 5.4 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 1.9 0.9 1.9 0.7 2.3 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 3.9 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.7 2.2 0.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.4 67.0 28.0 8.8 65.5 10.2 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 10.3 9.4 24.8 10.8 6.4 29.0 15.1 59.8 14.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.4 11.2 5.8 11.9 14.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 17.3 21.2 16.7 13.1 20.6 9.6 11.2 17.8 27.0 8.3 19.5 17.7 13.3 18.3 9.4 14.6 41.8 9.3 12.3 15.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.5 13.4 10.9 17.2 13.0 13.1 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.1 29.8 16.3 30.2 45.3 12.0 38.2 12.9 6.9 93.0 54.7 130.6 8.7 67.9 69.0 150.1 25.0 103.0 7.8 8.4 63.1 75.0 10.4 18.4 7.5 91.0 12.9 186.0 44.8 42.5 67.0 15.8 14.2 66.0 35.0 56.5 31.7 11.2 9.9 15.2 87.6 8.3 47.8 17.0 63.8 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4