GCC Daily Market Update - 5 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,360.2 20,689.2 5,440.4 7,321.8 12,282.3 5,101.1 88,612.6 18,810.3 24,261.5 3,222.5 29,910.2 1.3 39.0 8.2 39.1 25.1 15.2 (56.9) (173.0) NA NA NA 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 (0.1) (0.9) NA NA NA (0.1) 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) 0.6 (0.6) 1.0 5.4 4.7 11.9 2.5 7.0 4.9 13.4 (1.6) 10.3 3.8 12.3 10,391.7 6,986.2 4,548.9 3,559.7 7,015.8 5,623.4 1,348.5 1,649.6 3,123.2 47.6 18.2 82.2 20.4 16.6 26.7 0.7 8.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 (0.2) 2.4 2.3 (0.2) 1.3 (0.5) 0.5 (0.0) (0.4) (3.1) 0.1 0.8 22.1 (2.8) 10.5 5.9 7.5 54.2 51.0 3.3 1,255.0 261.2 1.1 0.8 0.2 4.2 0.9 2.0 1.6 5.3 0.3 0.3 2.9 1.2 3.0 0.6 (0.2) (4.4) (4.6) (11.8) 9.0 5.6 Global Most global indices rose on Tuesday mainly supported by Energy stocks which tracked oil prices. US equities posted marginal gains as investors remained cautious ahead of a meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart later this week. Industrial and Material stocks were among the gainers as Donald Trump indicated that a proposed US infrastructure bill may top USD 1.0tn. In Europe, the Energy and Natural Resources shares followed higher commodity prices, while the Car manufacturers slipped, as weak US auto sales data for March-17 weighed on the sentiments. Weak UK construction PMI data for March-17 was also a dampener. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged up slightly by 0.2%. In Asia, Nikkei plunged 0.9% mainly due to stronger yen. GCC Most Gulf indices rose on Tuesday. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark index was up 1.8% with the newly merged bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank gaining 4.8% in heavy trade. Abu Dhabi National Energy however retreated 5.3% on profit booking as the stock had soared 24% since Sunday. Dubai’s main index continued its upward trajectory supported by gains in large and mid-sized shares. Emaar Properties and Dubai Islamic Bank were among the gainers, up 1.2% and 1.8%, respectively. Saudi Arabia’s index edged up 0.3% in the lowest daily traded volume since mid-September with dairy and juice producer- National Agriculture Development rebounding 4.0%. Qatar QE index gained 0.5% with buying support from foreign institutions and its domestic counterpart. The index witnessed bullish bets particularly in Telecom, Insurance and Industrial counters. Banking stocks were also among the gainers with Masraf Al Rayan up 3.2% for the day. Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounted for about 65% of the total volumes. Out of 44 stocks listed, 39 exchanged hands of which 20 rose, 16 fell and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.1 1.5 3.8 83.6 DSM 20 15.4 1.5 3.8 74.7 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 60.0 11,000 40.0 10,391.7 10,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.6 3.4 685.2 UAE (ADX) 17.1 1.4 5.3 49.5 UAE (DFM) 15.2 1.3 3.8 82.7 Kuwait (KSE) 21.8 1.3 3.4 83.0 Oman (MSM) 11.3 1.2 5.3 8.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.8 5.8 2.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Islamic Insurance Al Ahli Bank Masraf Al Rayan QGMD United Development Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Int. Islamic Doha Bank Qsc Medicare Group Mazaya Qatar R. E. Dev Close Price 63.7 35.9 42.2 10.0 20.0 5.2 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.3 8.9 5.6 3.2 3.0 1.3 25.9 (3.3) 12.2 (0.6) (3.1) (6.5) 0.6 15.0 (18.1) 3.7 11.4 23.9 2,068.7 15.3 (16.0) 115.6 NA 4.0 1,093.2 11.4 20.2 65.9 31.0 93.3 14.4 (1.3) (3.1) (0.5) (1.4) (0.2) (6.0) (4.5) (1.6) (1.5) (1.4) (4.3) 4.9 (8.2) 48.3 (0.3) (24.9) 4.4 (13.0) (14.2) 7.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 17.1 216.1 165.3 83.8 424.0 39.3 12.7 9.9 40.3 21.2 10,000 10/Jan 20.0 24/Jan 7/Feb 21/Feb Index Volume (mn) 7/Mar 21/Mar 0.0 4/Apr Index Value Closing Level 3,046.3 6,375.2 3,298.6 4,308.5 2,387.0 1,221.9 2,318.7 1D Change (%) 1.0 (0.1) 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.9 (0.2) Buy (%) 34.9 24.7 59.6 6.9 33.5 40.4 Sell (%) 43.3 26.8 70.1 10.8 19.1 29.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2017 expand its business by opening new markets and offering new, diversified and high-value products. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  The US trade gap declined by 9.6% to USD 43.6bn in February-17 as exports increased to a two-year high amid a brighter outlook for global manufacturing and slowing domestic demand weighed on imports.  Dubai based Abdul Rahim Architectural Consultants (Araco) has been awarded a project worth AED 570.0mn for designing and licensing 14 buildings in Dubai’s Satwa area. The project is expected to cover an area of 1.3mn sq. ft. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Health Authority (DHA) announced that it has started implementing a barcode system in all its pharmaceutical transactions in DHA hospitals and health centres. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia's Islamic Development Bank has set initial price guidance for a planned 5-year USD denominated Sukuk in the low to mid 40bps over mid-swaps, according to a document issued by one of the banks leading the transaction. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia is planning to invest to maintain production capacity of 12.50 mn bpd, holding between 2mn and 2.5mn bpd in spare capacity, according to BMI Research. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Aramco extended the book building process for its debut local currency sukuk by one day beyond the original deadline of 3rd April-17 due to increase in time needed to obtain internal approval for some accounts before placing their orders. The size of the deal is likely to be between USD 2bn and USD 4bn. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia Non-oil sector posts growth in Q1-17, with sharp rates of expansion in new orders and output supporting the overall upturn. (Source: Reuters)  US factory orders jumped by 1.0% MoM in February-17 after surging up by a revised 1.5% in January-17. Durable goods orders spiked by 1.8% MoM in February-17 led by sharp jump in orders for non-defense aircraft and parts. (Source: RTT News)  US office vacancy rate was flat at 15.8% in the first quarter of 2017, compared with the fourth quarter of 2016, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc. (Source: Reuters)  Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker resigned after admitting that a conversation he had with a Wall Street analyst in 2012 may have disclosed confidential information about Fed policy options. (Source: Reuters)  Canada’s economy posted a trade deficit of USD 972.0mn in Februrary-17, after three straight monthly surpluses due to increase in imports by 0.6% MoM and as exports declined by 2.4% MoM to USD 45.3bn in February-17. (Source: CBC)  Bank of England (BOE) warns banks about risky lending after borrowing surge by more than 10% late last year, BOE believes that some banks might be letting credit standards slide as they compete to offer debt to households. (Source: Reuters)  UK new car sales rose by 8% in March-17 as consumers and businesses preponed purchase to avoid paying an increase in excise duty which came into force from 1st April 2017 (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.7% MoM in February-17 ahead of expectations of 0.5%. The increase was led by rise in purchases of nonfood products mainly textiles, clothes and footwear. (Source: Reuters)  A member of the World Bank Group, International Finance Corporation will invest around USD 1bn in Turkey by the end of its fiscal year. (source: AA)  Turkey exports have increased 19% YoY in March-17, the highest rise since November-12, according to TMI. Export reached USD 37.0bn in Q1-17 up from USD 34.7bn in 2016. (Source: Albawaba) GCC NEWS (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia is to switch the benchmark it uses to sell its crude oil in Europe to ICE Brent Settlement from the current system of using the daily weighted average of Brent trades. (Source: Bloomberg)  US-based Warburg Pincus LLC will boost its investments in India-based Kalyan Jeweller’s to total INR 17.0bn, as the latter plans to increase its store count and enter the new markets of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman plans to start work on a state of the art refinery, Duqm Refinery, with a capacity 230,000 bpd of crude oil towards the end of the year, a top-level official at the Ministry of Oil and Gas said. Duqm Refinery is a joint venture between Oman and Kuwait. (Source: Times of Oman)  Central Bank of Oman issued OMR 59.0mn treasury bills with a maturity period of 91 days. The average discount rate and the average yield reached 1.06% and 1.06% respectively. (Source: Times of Oman)  Kuwait’s investment spending is expected to reach 3.5% of GDP this year and 4.0% next year, with an aim of hiking growth in the non-oil sector, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Ansas Al-Saleh. (Source: Kuna)  UAE based Gulf Capital invested over AED 500.0mn (USD 135.0mn) in technology and e-commerce across the GCC. The company has invested in online B2B hospitality platform, online sport-based products and supplements marketplace. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE is expecting to achieve oil production capacity of 3.5mn bpd by 2018 with production over early 2017 just under 3mn bpd, according to BMI Research. (Source: Arabian Business)  Ras Al Khaimah’s real estate sector rose by CAGR of 45% to AED 4.947bn (USD 1.349bn) in 2015 from AED 3.401bn (USD 925.0mn) in 2011, according to a study by the RAK Chamber of Commerce. (Source: Capital Intelligence has affirmed QIIB’s financial strength rating at ‘A-’ with a stable outlook, factoring in the bank’s very strong capital adequacy and good profitability at the operating level. (Source: Gulf Times)  Commercial Bank shareholders have approved a 5% increase in the company’s capital to QAR 4.047bn from QAR 3.85bn at their extraordinary general assembly. (Source: Gulf Times)  Commercial Bank has announced the election of new members to its board of directors for another three years, representing Qatar Insurance Company. (Source: Gulf Times)  More than QAR 1.4bn in business opportunities related to the 2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar will be on offer to local small and medium enterprises at the upcoming Moushtarayat Conference 2017. (Source:  QATAR NEWS Arabian Business)  Ras Al Khaimah based pharmaceutical manufacturer Julphar is focusing expansion into more than 30 countries around the world. It also plans to export more than 90% of its products. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE’s PMI hit a 19-month high to 56.2 in March-17 from 56.0 in February-17. The overall expansion was driven by sharper increases in output and new orders, as well as a record rise in stocks of purchases. The peninsula) (Source: Gulf News)  UAE Minister of State and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) Group CEO, Al Jaber emphasized on strategic, value-added partnerships as key to Adnoc’s growth plans as the company seeks to  Commercial Bank has approved issuance of US certificates of deposit and European commercial paper worth USD 5bn directly by the company during the bank's ordinary and extraordinary meetings. (Source: Qatar tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0704 USD/QAR 3.6409 110.7400 EUR/QAR 3.8972 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2470 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 1.0020 GBP/QAR 4.5402 USD/CAD 1.3402 CHF/QAR 3.6336 AUD/USD 0.7565 CAD/QAR 2.7167 NZD/USD 0.6973 AUD/QAR 2.7543 USD/INR 64.5275 INR/QAR 0.0564 USD/TRY 3.6785 TRY/QAR 0.9898 USD/ZAR 13.6251 ZAR/QAR 0.2672 USD/BRL 3.0935 BRL/QAR 1.1770 FX Commentary USD ended slightly lower against the basket of major currencies as Investors’ concerns grew ahead of upcoming US-China summit on Thursday and after North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the sea. The decline in USD was capped as US trade deficit in February narrowed more than expected. CAD weakened to a three week low against its US counterpart, pressured by a loss of risk appetite as domestic data showed trade deficit. Following three consecutive months of surpluses, February's CAD 972mn deficit was fueled by a decrease in shipments of aircraft and canola. GBP inched lower against the greenback as uncertainty grew over the terms of Britain's exit from the EU. EUR edged up after data showed that Eurozone retail sales increased at the fastest pace in four months in February. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.15 1.80 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) 1.45 1.52 1.73 1.98 2.67 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.11 1.31 1.74 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.67 0.84 1.05 1.46 2.20 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.97% 1.26% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.73% 2.99% 3.25% 1.88% 2.16% 2.35% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.42% 2.99% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.6 (1.0) Turkey 236.6 UK 28.5 (8.5) Brazil 223.5 (51.4) Germany 17.3 (2.8) Egypt 336.7 (143.0) 2.16% 1.99% 2.0% 2.34% 2.61% 1.59% 2.08% 1.0% 0.0% 0.84% 2 Yrs 1.35% 1.14% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.59% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (13.6) 53.0 23.4 Abu Dhabi 42.0 (27.0) Italy 174.1 20.1 Bahrain 216.6 (172.3) Greece 870.3 (147.1) Dubai 112.1 (47.9) Russia 163.4 (57.9) Qatar 61.6 (29.4) Japan 25.1 (9.6) Saudi Arabia 96.1 (61.9) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Mar 55 55.5 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Composite Mar - 55.4 10:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Mar 54.3 54.1 10:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Mar 54.9 54.8 10:50 France Markit France Services PMI Mar F 58.5 58.5 10:50 France Markit France Composite PMI Mar F 57.6 57.6 10:55 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Mar F 55.6 55.6 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Mar F 57 57 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F 56.5 56.5 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F 56.7 56.7 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar 53.4 53.3 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Mar 53.8 53.8 Mar-31st - (0.80%) Mar 185k 298k 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:15 US ADP Employment Change 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI Mar F 53.1 52.9 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Mar F - 53.2 17:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar 57 57.6 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 5 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 30th March 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.5 5.1 4.7 2.6 0.0 4.6 5.8 2.2 5.1 3.1 5.0 3.1 5.3 3.3 4.7 0.0 7.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.4 1.6 6.9 4.6 3.7 2.8 3.6 1.9 3.8 5.6 2.3 7.0 3.2 0.0 6.4 4.3 3.6 0.0 2.9 3.1 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.6 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.7 3.9 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.8 26.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.7 91.9 12.3 15.2 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 13.2 10.9 23.1 12.1 6.8 41.3 16.9 43.8 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 12.9 7.0 13.2 19.6 78.5 22.6 18.9 15.7 27.5 10.7 10.8 19.9 41.7 11.5 18.9 15.6 14.9 18.0 8.7 23.1 21.3 11.2 15.6 14.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.4 14.9 12.3 12.3 12.6 14.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 11.7 2.3 10.0 0.7 8.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 56.5 36.1 70.1 21.6 70.7 8.5 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.9 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 34.0 34.0 22.6 31.4 66.6 14.6 42.2 19.1 8.6 102.3 68.5 146.1 9.8 80.0 95.7 168.4 30.0 136.0 9.9 10.6 65.2 89.5 14.4 28.3 110.3 14.9 220.0 61.2 43.7 78.6 21.7 16.6 70.3 39.2 63.0 35.8 15.8 14.4 19.7 96.6 9.3 52.4 21.3 76.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4