GCC Daily Market Update - 4 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 4 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,534.6 22,641.7 5,995.1 7,468.1 12,902.7 5,367.4 103,907.6 20,614.1 28,173.2 3,348.9 31,497.4 5.5 84.1 13.1 29.3 NA 17.0 (23.1) 213.3 618.9 NA 213.7 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 NA 0.3 (0.0) 1.1 2.3 NA 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.2 (0.4) 0.7 13.2 14.6 23.3 4.6 12.4 10.4 33.0 7.8 28.1 7.9 18.3 8,284.7 7,244.4 4,441.1 3,570.2 6,664.8 5,225.2 1,278.1 1,655.1 3,459.1 (17.1) 20.3 13.8 9.0 (9.7) 39.0 (5.4) 6.8 11.0 (0.2) 0.3 0.3 0.3 (0.2) 0.8 (0.4) 0.4 0.3 (0.3) (0.5) 1.0 0.2 (0.2) 1.7 (0.4) 1.1 0.6 (20.6) 0.5 (2.3) 1.1 15.9 (9.6) 4.7 5.3 19.1 56.0 50.4 2.9 1,271.5 296.4 (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) (1.2) 0.8 (0.2) (0.3) (0.7) (0.1) 0.3 (3.3) (3.2) (3.3) (0.8) 0.3 (2.1) (6.9) (21.9) 10.4 18.3 Global US markets closed higher yesterday, with all three benchmark indices reaching record high levels, as release of encouraging macroeconomic data on Monday spurred optimism about the US economy. Risk-on mode was evident as gains in the sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials lifted the performance of S&P 500 index. Carmakers were the notable gainers, following news of better than expectations vehicle sales data. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.2%. German markets remained closed on account of national holiday. The export oriented UK benchmark advanced, as dismal domestic construction data weighed on the GBP. Similarly, weakness in the JPY supported the performance of the Nikkei index. However, weakness in oil prices led to decline in Energy shares. Hong Kong benchmark advanced, driven by gains in blue chip stocks. GCC Most GCC markets settled higher yesterday, despite losses in oil prices. In Saudi Arabia, Advanced Petrochemical Co. rose 1.4%, after the company reported a 10% YoY increase in its Q3-17 net income. SABB Takaful dropped 3.2%, after the regulator suspended the licenses of the company on a temporary basis. In Dubai, Emaar Properties continued its upward trajectory, amid reports that the company’s local real estate development business is expected to be valued at USD 6.5bn. Kuwaiti blue chip stocks continued to experience healthy buying activity, following the upgrade from global index compiler FTSE. Qatar QE index fell 0.2%. Increased net selling activity in local retail investors and lower buying support from non-Qatari retail investors weighed on the overall market. Trade turnover and volumes dropped, with Telecom, Industrials, Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 92.0% of the total volume. Out of 45 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 23 declined, 14 advanced and 3 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.0 1.2 4.5 37.5 DSM 20 13.5 1.3 4.8 32.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.7 1.7 3.3 709.2 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.6 16.6 UAE (DFM) 101.0 1.3 4.0 26.8 Kuwait (KSE) 18.0 1.2 5.2 95.0 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.1 5.1 7.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.5 0.8 6.1 1.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co Ooredoo Qatar Insurance Co Mannai Corporation Qatar Elect.& Water Top Losers Ezdan Holding Group Zad Holding Co Salam Intl Investment Mazaya Qatar Real Est Qatari Investors Group Close Price 44.4 84.9 52.0 64.8 174.9 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.2 1.1 (20.8) (16.6) (29.5) (19.0) (23.0) (18.7) (10.3) (32.4) (21.1) (18.9) 15.2 197.0 16.0 0.5 26.6 12.4 14.9 14.9 6.1 12.3 9.9 72.1 7.8 9.4 34.6 (0.6) (2.8) (0.3) (0.3) (1.0) (5.5) (3.7) (3.1) (3.1) (2.7) (34.6) (19.2) (29.4) (31.4) (40.9) (42.3) (7.8) (29.1) (27.6) (30.7) 629.1 1.8 253.0 188.7 13.3 12.7 9.2 10.5 40.2 15.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,000 15.0 9,500 10.0 8,284.7 9,000 5.0 8,500 8,000 0.0 9/Jul 23/Jul 6/Aug 20/Aug Index Volume (mn) 3/Sep 17/Sep 1/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,593.1 5,002.2 2,553.5 3,311.9 1,696.1 1,040.9 1,722.3 1D Change (%) (0.4) (0.2) (0.1) 1.5 (3.6) 2.0 0.1 Buy (%) 46.0 18.4 64.4 8.0 27.6 35.6 Sell (%) 47.8 26.4 74.2 7.6 18.2 25.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 4 , 2017 and heritage tourist centre, technology and industry parks, a university and an airport at Taif region. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US seasonally adjusted annualized rate of car and light truck increased by 4.8% YoY to 18.6mn units in September-17 driven by replacement of flood-damaged cars hit by the hurricane. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone PPI increased by 2.5% YoY and 0.3% MoM in August-17 driven by more expensive energy and intermediate goods. PPI excluding energy, grew by 2.2% YoY and 0.1% MoM (Source: Reuters)  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. RBA governor Philip Lowe said that higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to continued subdued price pressures in the economy. (Source: ABC)  Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) has stopped Sharia based insurer, SABB Takaful, from issuing or renewing insurance or savings products, due to weaknesses in the firm's internal controls. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia based Public Investment Fund (PIF) is forming two real estate development firms to boost the capacity of Mecca and Medina to receive pilgrims. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia based supplier, Bakheet Company for Machinery has deployed a major leasing software solution, LeaseFlex, to boost its operations. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Investcorp is seeking to invest in companies that support Saudi Aramco and is also focusing on healthcare and education assets being sold in Saudi Arabia's privatization drive, company’s CEO said. (Source: Zawya)  Australia new home sales increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.1% MoM in August-17. Sales of detached houses increased by 7.3% MoM while multi-unit sales surged by 21.6% MoM. (Source: Market Insider)  Turkey’s CPI increased by 11.2% YoY and 0.7% MoM in September-17. Transportation prices increased the highest annually by 16.1% while the highest monthly increase was in Education, up 2.1%. (Source: AA)  Turkish economy’s growth forecast for 2017 was revised up from 4.7% to 5.5% by Fitch rating agency driven by support from various government incentives including temporary fiscal measures and a rise in the Treasury commitment to the Credit Guarantee Fund. (Source: AA) Kuwait’s inclusion to emerging markets classification by index compiler, FTSE Russell, could prompt inflows of as much as USD 700.0mn from investors, according to NBK Capital, the asset management division of National Bank of Kuwait. (Source: Gulf Times)  Kuwait has invited bids for financial advisors to manage the IPO of its stock exchange, according to sources. If true, advisors will have to work on a tight deadline as the current law states the exchange's privatization needs to be completed by June-18. (Source: Zawya)  Oman will receive a holistic technical solution of EUR 10.5mn (USD 12.3mn) from Nortal to help implement VAT and effective collection of the tax with minimum administrative burden and costs. (Source: Trade  GCC NEWS  GCC has immense potential for convertible and exchangeable bonds especially for infrastructure and real estate sectors, according to Fisch Asset Management. Issuance of conventional corporate and sovereign bonds in the Q4-17 is expected to remain high partly due to the strong level of interest from global investors. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE Council of Ministers announced the penalties for violations of the country’s tax law. These include a fine not less than AED 500 and not more than triple the value of the tax on the transaction in question and fine of AED 10,000 first time and AED 50,000 on repeating the offence of keeping records. (Source: Zawya)  UAE banking sector’s gross credit decreased by 1.0% MoM and 2.0% YoY in August-17 with domestic loans declining by 1.3% MoM driven by decrease in credit offtake in government related entities by 1.8% and private sector by 1.6%. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai based Emaar Properties’ real estate development business, is expected to be valued at AED 24.0bn (USD 6.5bn), ahead of its IPO, according to sources. The assets will include 49 units in Dubai's Burj Khalifa and several mixed-used projects under construction and joint ventures. (Source: Zawya)  Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar's central bank sold QAR 1.0bn (USD 275.0mn) of Treasury bills in a monthly auction. The sale includes QAR 500.0mn of three-month bills at a yield of 2.26%, QAR 350.0mn of six-month at 2.47% and QAR 150.0mn of nine-month at 2.60%. (Source: Brecorder)  More foreign companies and investors are exploring opportunities in Qatar’s downstream industries, such as chemicals, petrochemicals, aluminium and other manufacturing sector, said Treasurer at Qatar Chamber. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar central bank’s liquidity injection into the local banks and increased public sector deposits have reduced the impact on the banks’ funding pressure in recent months, according to the Institute of International Finance report. The public sector deposits in Qatari banks grew by 70.0% from May-17 to August-17, more than offsetting the decline in non-resident deposits. (Source: The Peninsula) Dubai based Khazna Data Centers is planning to double its capacity by the end of 2019, delivering over 24 megawatt of IT load according to company’s CEO. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Minister of Municipality and Environment said that the country is working to double local production of food items within a year from the beginning of the blockade. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Dubai based holistic interior fit-out and joinery company, Abanos, has been awarded a major contract from Airolink for the upcoming Art of Living Mall (Art Centre), project. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Saudi Arabia’s Emirates NBD seasonally adjusted PMI declined by 0.5% MoM to 55.5 led by softer external demand and employment growth. However, there was a sharp increase in output and new order. (Source: Qatar based Hamad International Airport (HIA) inked a MOU with global IT provider, SITA, to provide framework for the two partners to enhance HIA’s initiative to implement innovative passenger processing solutions using biometrics. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar’s food services sector is expected to perform “exceptionally well” with Doha’s gaining prominence in a highly competitive market, according to Al Masah Capital. It added that GCC’s foodservice market will reach USD 29.0bn by 2020 from USD 21.5bn in 2016. (Source: Gulf GDN Online)  Saudi Arabia and Russia are planning to jointly set up a USD 1.0bn worth energy fund, Russia’s energy minister said. The agreement is likely to be signed during King Salman’s state visit to Russia this week. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi government has approved plans of USD 3.0bn worth residential city covering 1,250 sq. km area and more than 10,000 homes, a culture Times)  Qatar Business Incubation Centre recorded an increase in applications by 225.0% from 2016 and 47.0% from the eighth wave to the ninth wave of its flagship Lean Startup Programme (LSP). (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 4 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1774 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.8500 EUR/QAR 4.2875 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3267 JPY/QAR 0.0323 USD/CHF 0.9737 GBP/QAR 4.8312 USD/CAD 1.2487 CHF/QAR 3.7399 AUD/USD 0.7836 CAD/QAR 2.9162 NZD/USD 0.7160 AUD/QAR 2.8535 USD/INR 64.9975 INR/QAR 0.0560 USD/TRY 3.5706 TRY/QAR 1.0199 USD/ZAR 13.6583 ZAR/QAR 0.2666 USD/BRL 3.1438 BRL/QAR 1.1583 FX Commentary The USD closed marginally lower against the basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling at 93.573. The marginal losses in the greenback were on the back the caution exercised on the part of the investors ahead of the release of the key jobs data during the week. The EUR inched higher against the USD, reversing its direction following losses on Monday. The GBP fell against the USD, following the release of lower than expected UK’s domestic construction activity data. The AUD fell in the early trade, after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark rates unchanged and highlighted concerns of stronger domestic currency. The CAD rebounded from its one-month low levels against the USD, however, weakness in oil prices limited the gains in the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.34 1.79 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.17) 2.03 2.10 2.23 2.47 2.98 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.93 1.10 1.33 1.56 2.18 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.03 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.06% 1.47% 2.92% 3.14% 3.36% 1.91% 2.15% 2.32% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.33% 2.87% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 (0.5) Turkey 182.0 (56.2) UK 26.2 (3.9) Brazil 190.1 (35.7) Germany 14.3 (5.0) Egypt 357.6 (3.2) France 22.3 (32.9) Abu Dhabi 60.6 16.6 Italy 143.1 (34.9) Bahrain 241.1 14.0 Greece 531.1 (398.9) Dubai 150.8 3.9 Russia 136.6 (28.4) Qatar 98.1 (19.8) Japan 39.2 13.1 Saudi Arabia 84.8 (3.6) 2.0% 1.73% 1.0% 1.05% 2.12% 1.99% 1.37% 1.24% 2.28% 1.54% 2.54% 1.87% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Sep 54.3 54.2 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Composite Sep - 54.2 10:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Sep 55 55.1 10:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Sep 55.9 55.8 10:50 France Markit France Services PMI Sep F 57.1 57.1 10:50 France Markit France Composite PMI Sep F 57.2 57.2 10:55 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Sep F 55.6 55.6 10:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Sep F 57.8 57.8 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 55.6 55.6 11:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep F 56.7 56.7 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Sep 53.2 53.2 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Sep 53.8 54 Sep-29th - (0.50%) Sep 135k 237k 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:15 US ADP Employment Change 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI Sep F 55.1 55.1 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Sep F - 54.6 17:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep 55.5 55.3 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 4 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 28th September 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 0.0 0.0 8.6 2.1 6.1 5.4 4.0 0.0 5.2 7.8 2.6 6.0 3.7 5.6 4.3 6.3 4.0 6.4 0.0 10.1 5.6 6.0 6.1 7.1 5.0 0.0 4.4 4.6 4.3 2.7 7.5 5.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 2.5 3.9 6.3 3.0 7.8 4.8 0.0 8.4 5.9 4.2 0.0 3.3 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.0 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 0.7 2.0 0.9 1.9 0.7 2.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 3.9 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.7 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.8 0.6 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 8.9 65.5 29.6 8.5 67.7 10.4 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 9.6 8.8 23.7 10.3 6.7 29.6 14.4 59.8 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.7 11.2 5.8 11.8 12.0 (H) ( ) 19.4 21.3 16.8 12.3 17.0 9.1 10.8 17.4 24.2 8.2 15.5 19.7 13.1 15.6 9.5 13.7 42.1 9.2 11.8 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.1 11.9 10.2 14.9 11.8 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 -0.4 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.4 23.1 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 28.6 29.1 17.2 29.0 46.9 12.4 37.1 12.5 7.2 91.1 51.2 122.0 8.3 71.2 70.6 143.5 25.0 100.3 8.0 7.9 63.0 74.9 8.5 20.0 8.4 91.7 13.0 174.8 36.9 40.1 64.8 14.1 13.9 52.3 39.0 55.7 32.1 10.5 10.0 14.9 82.8 8.5 42.7 15.8 55.4 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4