GCC Daily Market Update - 4 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,388.1 20,957.9 5,625.2 7,234.5 12,527.8 5,301.0 93,862.7 19,445.7 24,696.1 3,135.3 29,894.8 (3.0) 8.0 (18.9) (15.5) 19.9 (3.2) (493.2) NA NA (8.4) (26.4) (0.1) 0.0 (0.3) (0.2) 0.2 (0.1) (0.5) NA NA (0.3) (0.1) 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 (0.8) 1.3 0.3 (0.6) (0.1) 6.7 6.0 15.7 1.3 9.1 9.0 20.1 1.7 12.3 1.0 12.3 9,955.4 6,967.7 4,581.3 3,419.1 6,798.7 5,492.4 1,330.9 1,630.9 3,201.9 (37.4) (45.1) 28.4 (17.6) 39.3 (17.6) (7.5) (2.1) (1.9) (0.4) (0.6) 0.6 (0.5) 0.6 (0.3) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (1.1) (0.7) 1.3 0.1 (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) 0.3 0.5 (4.6) (3.4) 0.8 (3.2) 18.3 (5.0) 9.1 3.4 10.0 50.8 47.8 3.2 1,248.5 253.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 (8.5) (9.2) 0.7 0.3 1.0 (0.7) (3.5) (2.0) (3.3) (1.9) (1.6) (2.9) (10.8) (11.2) (13.7) 8.4 0.6 Source: Bloomberg Global US stocks ended mostly lower yesterday, as a drop in I-phone sales raised skepticism on consumption, which has been ignited by discouraging growth in Q1-17 US GDP and a drop in sales for US automakers. A hawkish stance adopted by the US Fed, which left its benchmark rates unchanged this time, further weighed on stocks. Nasdaq underperformed broader indices, after index heavyweight Apple retreated 0.3%, as the company’s Q2-17 revenue and guidance for current quarter came in below market expectations. European stocks held at a 20-month high as a rally in drug makers offset weakness in Natural Resources stocks. European suppliers of Apple led losses in technology shares. While Japan and Hong Kong exchanges were closed for a holiday, Chinese benchmark retreated 0.3% on lingering worries over tougher regulations. GCC GCC markets ended mostly lower yesterday, after Brent crude fell in the gulf session. Saudi markets declined 0.6%, while an interview with the top economic policy official, the Saudi Crown Prince has little impact on the market. Advanced Petrochemical Co. fell 2.5%, after reporting downbeat net income for Q1-17. Dubai markets dropped 0.5%, led by losses in GFH Financial Co, as the markets had already priced in the strong earnings posted by the firm yesterday. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark added 0.6%, as its largest listed lender, First Abu Dhabi Bank, climbed 1.4%. Qatar Qatari markets inched 0.4% lower, driven by increased net selling on the part of local retail and gulf institutional investors. Selling pressure was largely seen in Telecommunications sector, as sector heavyweight Ooredoo dropped 2.3%, after UAE-based Etisalat joined hands with Saudi Telecom and Kuwait's Zain Group in bidding for third mobile operator in Oman, where the company’s unit is expected to face tough competition. Volumes rose with Banking, Real estate and Telecom sectors accounting for almost 83% of the total trades. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.7 1.5 3.8 84.3 11,000 DSM 20 14.9 1.5 3.8 57.6 10,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.8 1.6 3.2 833.8 UAE (ADX) 17.1 1.4 4.4 46.9 UAE (DFM) 14.8 1.3 4.2 59.6 Kuwait (KSE) 21.9 1.3 3.6 40.9 Oman (MSM) 12.9 1.2 5.3 4.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.4 0.8 5.9 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Islamic Holding Group Al Khalij Comm. Bank Doha Insurance Co Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Elec. & Water Co Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Industrial Manuf Ooredoo Qsc Al Meera Consmr Good Qatar National Cement Close Price 61.8 15.1 16.6 70.4 206.6 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.3 (11.2) (9.1) (4.5) (9.0) (3.4) (10.1) (17.3) 4.5 1.8 34.6 73.5 91.1 237.6 25.6 67.0 12.5 10.7 18.9 14.7 20.0 42.6 100.6 155.0 71.0 (0.6) (1.2) (2.4) (3.0) (1.2) (2.7) (2.6) (2.3) (1.9) (1.7) (5.2) (4.3) (1.2) (11.7) (9.2) (22.2) 9.2 13.0 (27.2) (10.0) 3.0 19.1 112.8 3.6 243.7 39.8 10.2 17.0 16.3 10.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 60.0 40.0 9,955.4 20.0 10,000 9,500 8/Feb 22/Feb 8/Mar 22/Mar Index Volume (mn) 5/Apr 19/Apr 0.0 3/May Index Value Closing Level 2,927.0 6,081.5 3,078.7 4,271.8 2,371.3 1,225.3 2,137.0 1D Change (%) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3) 0.5 (0.3) (2.1) (0.4) Buy (%) 42.9 29.9 72.8 6.4 20.8 27.2 Sell (%) 49.0 15.8 64.7 6.2 29.1 35.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2017  The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and downplayed weak Q1-17 economic growth while emphasizing the strength of the labor market. (Source: Reuters) A report by Knight Frank said that the slowdown in new supply reaching the market has in turn moderated any major decline in rental rates for Grade A buildings in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Arabian Business)  US private employers added 177,000 jobs in April-17, slightly above economists' expectations of 175,000, as per the ADP National Employment Report. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia’s general reserves rose by SAR 52.0mn to SAR 641.8bn and current account of the state dropped by SAR 4.0bn amounting to SAR 38.5bn in March-17. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Saudi Arabia’s PMI rose to 56.5 in April-17 from 56.4 in March-17 due to increase in output by 0.9% MoM to 63.7, while new orders accelerated by 0.8% MoM to 61.3 in April-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is expected to attract up to USD 1.0tn in inward foreign direct investment over the next 15 years, according to experts from Oxford Economics and Control Risks. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS    The Eurozone economy started the year with robust growth as its GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ and 1.7% YoY in Q1-17. While Eurostat did not provide a breakdown, economists expect growth to be led by domestic consumption and business investment. (Source: Reuters)  UK will not be paying EUR 100bn to leave the EU, Brexit Minister David Davis said after the Financial Times reported that the EU was preparing to demand that amount. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s Philips Lighting inked an agreement with Ahmed Abdulwahed Trading Company for its LED and home consumer offering. (Source: Arab News)  China’s forex regulator said that it will step up its crackdown on illegal foreign exchange deals in 2017 as authorities boost authenticity and compliance checks on trade and investment. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabian Airlines (Saudia) has started the sale of its medical services business in Jeddah which is valued at USD 500.0mn, to reduce non-core assets. (Source: Zawya)  China will further regulate local government debt issuance and financing, said six government agencies in a joint statement, reinforcing recent steps to bolster financial risk controls. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s exchange Tadawul inked a MoU with the Middle East Investor Relations Association (MEIRA) to develop best practices in investor relations and enhance transparency across the kingdom. GCC NEWS    (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE PMI edged down to 56.1 in April-17 from 56.2 in March-17. Output and new orders growth remained very strong although slightly slower than March. (Source: The National) Dubai based Emirates NBD inked a partnership deal with Yes Bank to offer credit facilities against NRE fixed deposits that allows NRIs in the UAE to avail high loan amounts coupled with flexible repayment options. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Municipality has launched a new meteorological radar project which can detect rain drops in clouds from a distance of 200km and can also identify the types of thunderstorms and its time of occurrence and direction. (Source: Arabian Business) Bahrain based GFH Financial Group reported an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 427.0% YoY to USD 31.9mn. Consolidated income rose by 75.0% YoY to USD 51.1mn in Q1-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based Burgan Bank Group reported a rise in net income by 25.0% YoY to KWD 17.8mn (USD 58.4mn) in Q1-17 driven by selective growth approach and focus on operating efficiencies. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Petroleum Development Oman expecting an increase in its crude oil production by 25% to 0.25mn barrel in 2025 by using enhanced oil recovery despite high capital cost. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Dubai Electronic Security Centre is eyeing to expand its Emirati-only workforce by 50.0% in 2017. (Source: Arabian Business)   Florence based Dynamic Architecture Group has secured a new patent within GCC for its rotating skyscraper project, Dynamic Tower, which is based in Dubai and is expected to be completed by 2020. (Source: Producer price index rose 9.7% QoQ in Q4-16, mainly due to increased production prices of hydrocarbons, refined petroleum products, manmade fibres and rubber and plastics products. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Central bank said that it had sold QAR 1.6bn of Treasury bills in a monthly auction, with the yield curve steepening from the previous month. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Cabinet approved the VAT draft law thereby takings another step towards the implementation of VAT in Qatar. (Source: Gulf Times) Zawya)  First Abu Dhabi bank's liquidity surged by 3.4% QoQ to AED 134.4bn (USD 36.6bn) in Q1-17 reflecting the high creditworthiness of the new bank, post-merger of National Bank of Abu Dhabi and First Gulf Bank. (Source: Zawya)  Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties has generated AED 400.0mn (USD 109mn) revenue from sales of homes in the first two towers of its ‘The Bridges’ project. The project is composed of 2 plots with 3 towers each. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar is expected to implement the most awaited ATA Carnet system by the end of 2017 to issue ‘Certificates of Origin’ which will ensure faster and smoother transfer of goods across the GCC region, and beyond, said Director General of Qatar Chamber. (Source: The Peninsula)  Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties has signed a partnership agreement with Al Fahim Group to bring the world’s first Mercedes-Benz and AMG showroom and express service center to Yas Island. (Source: Trade  Qatar Holding has become media group Lagardere's top shareholder in terms of both share capital and voting rights as a result of a French law that favors long-term investors. (Source: Reuters)  Qatargas recently delivered the inaugural LNG cargo to China National Oil Corporation’s (CNOOC) Yuedong LNG terminal. (Source: Gulf Times)  KPMG announced the expansion of its tax practice in Qatar with the appointment of Philippe Norre to lead the firm’s indirect tax practice in Qatar. (Source: The Peninsula)  Ooredoo QSC wants to focus on the 10 countries where it operates rather than grow through acquisitions in the telecommunications business, the company’s Deputy CEO said. (Source: Bloomberg) Arabia)   Saudi Aramco’s IPO will provide Public Investment Fund (PIF) with more than SAR 500.0bn (USD 133.3bn) over 3 years in non-oil investment, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia will spend at least 50.0% of the proceeds from Saudi Aramco IPO on domestic investments, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said. (Source: Bloomberg) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0916 USD/QAR 3.6414 112.7500 EUR/QAR 3.9750 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2897 JPY/QAR 0.0323 USD/CHF 0.9948 GBP/QAR 4.6963 USD/CAD 1.3730 CHF/QAR 3.6604 AUD/USD 0.7423 CAD/QAR 2.6521 NZD/USD 0.6878 AUD/QAR 2.7030 USD/INR 63.6475 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.5352 TRY/QAR 1.0300 USD/ZAR 13.4377 ZAR/QAR 0.2710 USD/BRL 3.1662 BRL/QAR 1.1501 FX Commentary The USD started on a strong note amidst a slew of positive economic data, which includes higher private payroll numbers and improved services PMI. While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its meet, a more hawkish stance by the officials indicated that two interest rates hikes during the year still remain on cards. The dollar index, which measures greenback’s strength against its major trading partners, closed 0.4% higher yesterday. CAD weakened slightly against its US counterpart majorly due to strength in latter. GBP ended lower against the USD as news over the size of Britain’s EU exit bill suggested that negotiations to exit the bloc would be difficult. GBP was further impacted after UK PM Theresa May accused European politicians for trying to influence the outcome of June 8 UK national elections. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.17 1.78 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.12) QAIBOR 1.45 1.54 1.67 1.88 2.63 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.09 1.29 1.73 2.20 2.0% EIBOR 0.72 0.86 1.08 1.48 2.14 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.19 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.82% 1.30% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.57% 2.87% 3.16% 1.85% 2.13% 2.32% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.34% 2.97% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.0 0.4 Turkey 200.4 UK 25.9 (11.6) Brazil 210.2 (75.5) Germany 16.4 (3.8) Egypt 336.6 (122.7) 2.0% 1.59% 2.28% 2.11% 1.96% 2.53% 2.15% 1.0% 0.0% 0.88% 2 Yrs 1.65% 1.41% 1.20% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (71.4) 33.4 2.8 Abu Dhabi 41.7 (27.4) Italy 168.4 20.7 Bahrain 211.5 (157.2) Greece 757.9 (160.3) Dubai 106.6 (46.1) Russia 151.6 (85.8) Qatar 59.4 (31.1) Japan 26.3 (7.2) Saudi Arabia 87.5 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals 15:30 US Trade Balance 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Period Survey Prior Mar 67.2k 68.3k Mar (44.5b) (43.6b) Apr-29th 248k 257k Apr-28th - 400.0b Mar 0.40% 1.00% 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 17:00 US Factory Orders 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders Mar F 0.70% 0.70% 17:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Mar F - (0.20%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Gfh Financial Group NA NA NA 31.9 426.3 (85.0) Bahrain National Holding 4.8 10.2 13.0 2.0 40.3 158.5 Al Jouf Agriculture NA NA NA 8.1 (17.1) (31.9) Northern Region Cement Co NA NA NA 16.5 (61.6) (2.5) 166.6 (26.7) (1.4) 12.4 (12.9) 234.2 First Dubai Real Estate NA NA NA 0.5 53.5 (188.7) Alargan International Real NA NA NA 0.7 (108.5) 120.9 Alabdullatif Industrial Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 4 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.6 5.0 4.8 3.0 0.0 4.8 6.6 2.3 5.3 3.3 5.1 3.0 5.8 3.1 5.1 0.0 7.8 5.6 6.0 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.6 1.8 7.0 5.1 3.9 3.0 3.6 1.6 3.8 5.8 2.2 7.4 3.2 0.0 6.5 4.4 3.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.8 3.1 5.1 5.2 4.9 3.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.8 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.7 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.4 2.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.7 4.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.6 2.9 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.7 39.6 54.4 7.7 67.5 12.6 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 11.6 10.0 26.5 11.4 7.2 40.6 16.3 53.0 15.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.5 12.0 5.9 13.2 18.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.3 18.4 14.7 24.8 10.2 10.6 18.2 39.3 10.7 19.3 16.4 14.2 18.3 9.2 19.0 28.0 11.4 14.7 17.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 21.1 14.5 12.0 13.0 12.7 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.6 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 34.9 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 18.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 26.6 Stock Price (QR) 34.0 29.7 25.8 31.5 61.8 15.1 42.0 16.8 8.5 98.2 60.9 138.0 9.4 78.4 99.4 155.0 32.4 125.0 9.3 10.3 63.0 74.5 13.2 25.5 101.5 14.6 206.6 57.3 42.6 71.0 20.0 16.6 70.4 39.1 60.7 34.0 15.5 12.8 19.1 100.6 9.2 51.8 19.6 67.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4