GCC Daily Market Update - 3 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,238.8 19,762.6 4,863.6 7,142.8 11,598.3 4,882.4 77,754.5 19,114.4 22,000.6 3,103.6 26,595.5 NA NA NA NA 117.3 20.1 (384.2) NA NA NA (31.0) NA NA NA NA 1.0 0.4 (0.5) NA NA NA (0.1) 1.8 3.3 1.1 5.3 1.0 0.4 (0.5) 4.4 (3.5) (4.5) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4 (0.5) 0.4 0.4 (12.3) 1.8 10,428.7 7,247.3 4,533.9 3,538.7 5,775.4 5,700.2 1,219.8 1,571.6 2,908.8 (8.0) 9.4 (12.5) 7.8 27.3 (44.4) (0.6) 0.6 4.6 (0.1) 0.1 (0.3) 0.2 0.5 (0.8) (0.1) 0.0 0.2 (0.1) 0.5 (0.3) 0.2 0.5 (1.4) (0.1) 5.6 0.1 (0.1) 0.5 (0.3) 0.2 0.5 (1.4) (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 56.8 53.7 3.7 1,151.7 250.6 0.0 NA NA NA NA 0.0 NA NA NA NA 0.6 0.6 (6.4) (0.0) 1.3 0.6 0.6 (6.4) (0.0) 1.3 Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global indices were closed on Monday on account of New Year holiday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained 0.5% as Italy’s better-thanexpected economic data added to evidence of stronger manufacturing in the Eurozone. Germany’s benchmark also posted strong gains, led by strong performance in lender Commerzbank AG and carmaker Volkswagen AG. India’s Sensex fell marginally by 0.1% weighed by fall in Banking stocks, as investors were concerned over net interest margins of the lenders, after many banks cut their benchmark lending rates, amidst high liquidity. GCC Gulf indices were mixed on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s main index edged 0.1% higher, however 0.7% off its intraday peak as Petrochemical stocks capped the upside. Dubai main index closed 0.2% higher as much activity focused on speculative stocks with prices below AED 1. Abu Dhabi main index fell 0.3% partly due to 7.6% plunge in Abu Dhabi National Energy. Oman’s index dropped 0.8% after 2017 budget plan released by Oman government projected a smaller deficit but included fresh austerity measures with curb on spending. Omantel lost 2.1% after falling 4.3% on Sunday in response to increase in royalty to be paid to the government. Qatar QE index closed 0.1% lower on Monday, as individual investors turned net sellers on the bourse. Bullish bets by institutional investors, capped the downside. Selling pressure was majorly witnessed in Industrials and Transport sectors. Trade turnover and volumes were on a decline during the day, however strong activity was witnessed in Telecom, Real estate and Banking sectors which together accounted for more than 73% of the total traded. Masraf Al Rayan ended in red after saying it would suspend its brokerage business, Al Rayan Financial Brokerage Co., though it said the brokerage's paid-up capital represented just 0.06% of the bank's total assets. Out of 44 stocks traded, 42 exchanged hands of which 16 rose, 21 declined and 5 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.1 1.6 3.9 36.9 DSM 20 15.1 1.6 3.9 28.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.3 1.7 3.2 1,557.4 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.4 5.4 37.2 9,500 UAE (DFM) 11.6 1.3 3.9 92.3 Kuwait (KSE) 20.0 1.0 4.1 29.5 9,000 6/Oct Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.1 5.5 Bahrain (BAX) 10.0 0.4 4.6 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co. Dlala Holding Medicare Group Industries Qatar Qatar Industrial Manuf. Top Losers Zad Holding Co United Development Commercial Bank Qsc Widam Food Co Mazaya Qatar Real Est Close Price 58.0 22.0 63.8 119.0 45.0 2.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.5 3.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 3.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.9 23.9 (45.7) 10.9 12.6 227.2 67.3 33.1 141.8 10.7 15.8 NA 20.7 21.6 10.9 83.0 20.2 31.8 67.0 14.2 (6.2) (0.5) (0.7) (1.0) (0.2) (7.0) (2.4) (2.2) (1.5) (1.1) (7.0) (2.4) (2.2) (1.5) (1.1) (2.1) (0.7) (28.3) 27.6 5.5 0.1 99.2 17.1 27.2 159.9 10.1 13.1 31.3 14.2 16.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 40.0 10,428.7 20.0 0.0 20/Oct 3/Nov 17/Nov Index Volume (mn) 1/Dec 15/Dec 29/Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,902.0 5,865.7 3,326.4 4,428.0 2,238.5 1,203.2 2,554.7 1D Change (%) (0.4) (0.5) 0.6 (0.2) (0.3) (0.2) 0.3 Buy (%) 32.6 26.9 59.5 8.4 32.1 40.5 Sell (%) 48.2 23.6 71.8 9.2 19.0 28.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS   Saudi Arabia's Yamama Cement Company secured SAR 1bn (USD 266.6mn) in Islamic financing to partially fund the building of a new factory. The 3-year financing includes SAR 750mn from National Commercial Bank and SAR 250mn from Samba Financial Group. (Source: German manufacturing growth reached its highest in almost three years in December-16, driven by rising demand from Asia and the United States, a survey showed, suggesting the sector will contribute to an expansion in Q4-16. (Source: Reuters)   China should set a more flexible 2017 economic growth target to give policy makers more room to enact reform, according to an adviser to the People’s Bank of China. He proposed a range of 6% to 7% for 2017, compared with the 6.5% to 7% objective in 2016. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia’s International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation, a member of the Islamic Development Bank Group, concluded a USD 45.0mn murabaha financing agreement with the Islamic Republic of Mauritania. (Source: Zawya)   China's factory activity picked up more than expected in December-16 as demand accelerated, with output reaching a near six-year high. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 on a seasonally adjusted basis, from 50.9 in November-16 beating analysts' forecasts of 50.7. (Source: Reuters) Oman expects to generate around OMR 300.0mn as fees on expatriate licenses in 2017, according to the state budget data released on 1st January-17. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman Investment and Finance Company has been awarded Majan Electricity Company’s contract worth OMR 13.2mn, for meter reading and bill delivery, bill printing and disconnection/reconnection services for electricity and water for entire Majan-designated areas for 4-years.  Russian Energy Minister said that the country's oil production stood unchanged at 11.2mn bpd on a monthly basis in December-16. The ministry estimates oil production to increase to 548-551mn tons (11.01-11.07mn bpd) in 2017 from 547.5 tons (10.96mn bpd) in 2016. Arabian Business) (Source: Oman Tribune)  Bahrain-based investment firm Asma Capital agreed to buy a stake in the water business of private UAE utility company Utico in a deal worth USD 147mn, the companies announced. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait based- Gulf Investment House has started negotiations with a local Kuwaiti bank to reschedule its debt worth KWD 35.3mn consisting of murabaha and installments due by the bank. (Source: (Source: Reuters)  Turkey's trade deficit fell by 11.1% YoY in December-16 to USD 5.6bn, according to preliminary data released by the Customs and Trade Ministry. Exports rose 9.3% YoY to USD 12.8bn while imports rose by 2.2% YoY to USD 18.4bn for the period. (Source: Daily Sabah) Mubasher)  GCC NEWS  The Roads and Transport Authority has prepared a plan for improving services of the Dubai Taxi Corporation (DTC) comprising 64 initiatives to be undertaken up to 2021. (Source: Gulf News)  Dubai plans to build 1,400-berth harbor and 135-meter-tall lighthouse. Meraas, a developer backed by ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed, will build the project. (Source: The Washington Post)  Dubai-based port operator DP World is planning to set up a dry port near Cairo in Egypt and is also considering the establishment of other ports around Egypt, according to Egypt’s Minister of Industry and Trade, Tarek Kabil. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched Dubai Harbour, a new waterfront destination that will feature the MENA region’s largest marina and the Dubai Lighthouse spreading over 20mn sq ft and is expected to be completed in four years in phases by developer Meraas. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE’s Majid Al Futtaim will open a major new distribution center for Carrefour at the National Industries Park in Dubai. The center, once operational, will be the largest and most advanced distribution hub of its kind for Carrefour in the region. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia's real GDP grew 0.9% YoY in Q3-16, mainly driven by oil sector, which grew 3.6% YoY. Non-oil sector growth declined 0.7% YoY for the same period. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Aramco signed two awards involving Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (EPCI) contracts with India’s L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering (LTHE) in consortium with Emas Chiyoda Subsea, L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering’s MD & CEO said. (Source: Trade (Source: Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  Qatar's Money supply aggregate M1 declined 0.3% YoY to QAR 125.2bn in November-16 due to decline in demand deposits. Money supply aggregate M2 declined 4.4% YoY to QAR 495.9bn in the same period. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar’s ability to meet its external debt obligations is not in doubt as large stocks of foreign reserves at the nation’s central bank and even larger assets at the Qatar Investment Authority (the sovereign wealth fund) are sufficient to cover the country’s entire stock of external debt, a recent report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar's total population declined 1.5% MoM but increased 7.3% YoY to 2.597 mn in December-16. (Source: MDPS)  Qatar’s MEPI machinery and equipment index dropped 0.88% YoY in H2-16, majorly due to lower prices for special purpose machines such as underground rock cutters and earthmovers and transport equipment’s like trailers, according to official figures from MDPS. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and UAE have been ranked among the top 10 countries globally for expatriates to improve their earnings and savings as well as have greater disposable income, according to data released by HSBC’s annual Expat Explorer Survey. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman Qatar Insurance Company, (OQIC), a subsidiary of Qatar Insurance Group, has opened a new branch at Salalah’s Central Market area, Oman. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QMIC, the Qatar Mobility Innovations Center and Belgium based, SmartEnds, a leading IoT networks technology and solutions provider, announced a new partnership to explore delivery of joint innovative low power IoT solutions to the market in Qatar and the broader MENA region. (Source: The Peninsula)  Masraf Al Rayan Bank will suspend activities of its fully owned Al Rayan Financial Brokerage Co. The last date of trading through this brokerage unit will be 12th January-17. (Source: Zawya) Arabia)  The board of Samba Financial Group recommended a dividend distribution worth SAR1.2bn to its shareholders. Dividend will be distributed over the current outstanding 2.0bn shares. (Source: Tadawul)  Saudi Arabian Mining Company announced the commencement of commercial production of the ammonia plant (production capacity of 1.1mn tons annually) of its subsidiary Maaden Waad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (MWSPC) at Ras Al Khair. (Source: Tadawul) Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced the new prices of LPG for January-16. The company said that, Propane will be sold at USD 435.0 per metric ton and Butane will be sold at USD 495.0 per metric ton. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0485 USD/QAR 3.6414 117.5500 EUR/QAR 3.8180 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2308 JPY/QAR 0.0310 USD/CHF 1.0235 GBP/QAR 4.4818 USD/CAD 1.3443 CHF/QAR 3.5578 AUD/USD 0.7184 CAD/QAR 2.7088 NZD/USD 0.6924 AUD/QAR 2.6160 USD/INR 67.7275 INR/QAR 0.0538 USD/TRY 3.5441 TRY/QAR 1.0275 USD/ZAR 13.7351 ZAR/QAR 0.2651 USD/BRL 3.2859 BRL/QAR 1.1082 FX Commentary The dollar recovered from a two-week low against a basket of six major currencies on Monday, though trade was thin due to many markets being closed for the New Year holiday. The dollar index added 0.25%, after losing more than 1% in the last 3 days, with its weakness exacerbated on Friday during a flash surge for the euro in low volumes of trading in Asia. EUR edged down on despite release of stronger than expected manufacturing data for the currency bloc in December. GBP closed 0.2% higher, close to a 10-day high of USD 1.2388 hit on Friday. Political instability caused by gun attack in Istanbul that killed 39 people had little impact on the currency markets, as evident from sell-off in safe haven JPY and a marginal drop in the Turkish currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.72 0.77 1.00 1.69 (0.41) (0.37) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.30 1.41 1.53 1.88 2.50 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.24 1.80 2.03 2.42 2.0% EIBOR 0.49 0.65 1.01 1.45 2.10 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 0.0% 2.48% 2.96% 2.96% 2.04% 2.39% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.61% 0.61% 0.56% 1.59% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 3.08% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.7 7.1 Turkey 273.0 33.2 UK 31.0 (7.5) Brazil 280.6 (33.6) Germany 21.2 2.3 Egypt 450.3 (50.5) France 36.3 (3.0) Abu Dhabi 61.3 (23.8) 154.4 12.3 Bahrain 303.0 (87.1) 2.0% 2.60% 1.47% 2.16% 1.97% 2.59% 2.17% 1.94% 1.71% 1.0% 2.34% Italy 1.15% Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,047.5 121.1 Dubai 150.1 (25.4) Russia 181.5 (47.7) Qatar 80.0 (27.0) Japan 30.0 (9.5) Saudi Arabia 113.2 (56.8) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:45 France CPI EU Harmonized MoM Dec P 0.50% 0.00% 10:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec P 0.90% 0.70% 10:45 France CPI MoM Dec P 0.50% 0.00% 10:45 France CPI YoY Dec P 0.80% 0.50% 11:55 Germany Unemployment Change (000's) Dec (5k) (5k) 11:55 Germany Unemployment Claims Rate SA Dec 6.00% 6.00% 12:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Dec 53.3 53.4 16:00 Germany CPI YoY Dec P 1.40% 0.80% 16:00 Germany CPI MoM Dec P 0.60% 0.10% 16:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized MoM Dec P 0.60% 0.00% 16:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized YoY Dec P 1.30% 0.70% 17:30 Canada RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI Dec - 51.5 17:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec F 54.2 54.2 18:00 US ISM Manufacturing Dec 53.7 53.2 18:00 US ISM Prices Paid Dec 55.5 54.5 18:00 US Construction Spending MoM Nov 0.50% 0.50% 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec F - 51.9 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 3 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As of 29th December 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.9 0.0 8.7 1.7 5.9 4.7 3.2 0.0 4.1 6.4 1.8 5.9 3.3 8.0 6.3 5.1 5.5 5.2 0.0 9.1 4.0 4.8 5.7 7.0 3.2 4.3 4.5 3.4 2.1 6.7 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.6 2.3 2.9 7.8 2.7 6.7 3.3 1.9 7.5 4.5 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.2 5.4 5.2 4.9 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.4 3.2 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 15.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.4 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.3 12.0 11.1 27.8 11.5 20.2 7.2 21.7 13.2 11.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 14.2 6.2 11.4 13.5 34.3 21.1 19.2 15.3 25.4 10.8 11.1 18.6 18.0 9.0 18.8 4.2 12.6 11.8 13.1 23.1 16.8 12.9 18.4 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.4 16.3 13.1 12.4 13.1 14.1 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 30.2 21.3 34.4 61.1 16.8 37.4 15.4 10.1 103.1 62.8 161.1 10.1 62.5 78.9 176.0 27.5 145.2 10.1 11.1 67.0 83.0 13.6 31.0 116.5 15.7 222.0 58.4 44.8 85.7 21.0 17.8 82.9 47.0 51.0 33.1 15.1 14.4 20.0 101.7 9.2 55.5 23.0 96.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4