GCC Daily Market Update - 28 March

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,612.6 23,857.7 6,529.8 7,000.1 11,970.8 5,115.7 116,196.5 21,317.3 30,790.8 3,166.6 33,174.4 (45.9) (344.9) (224.0) 111.5 183.6 49.5 (223.8) 551.2 242.1 32.9 108.0 (1.7) (1.4) (3.3) 1.6 1.6 1.0 (0.2) 2.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 (3.7) (4.7) (4.7) (3.2) (3.7) (3.8) (2.3) (3.4) (0.2) (2.8) (3.0) (2.3) (3.5) 2.1 (8.9) (7.3) (3.7) 0.7 (6.4) 2.9 (4.2) (2.6) 8,694.0 7,942.5 4,611.8 3,092.9 6,619.3 4,759.3 1,327.3 1,643.6 3,593.9 (17.9) 85.1 (39.3) (11.0) (4.9) 0.9 1.7 (9.7) (30.5) (0.2) 1.1 (0.8) (0.4) (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.6) (0.8) 0.5 7.1 0.3 (4.7) (2.3) (4.9) (3.1) 1.1 (2.1) 2.0 9.9 4.8 (8.2) 3.3 (6.7) (0.3) 3.2 (1.4) 70.1 65.3 2.7 1,342.0 299.2 (0.0) (0.3) 0.1 (13.0) 3.1 (0.0) (0.5) 2.8 (1.0) 1.1 5.9 5.0 1.8 1.8 (3.8) 4.2 7.1 (8.1) 2.5 (9.4) Global The US equity markets ended lower yesterday. Selling pressure was witnessed in the Technology sector as Chipmaker shares declined. The S&P 500 inched 1.7% lower, weighed by weakness in Financials and Consumer Discretionary stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 1.2%, amidst alleviating fears over global trade issues and also amid speculations that the European Central Bank might need to extend its bond buying program due to political uncertainties. Investors also focused on the deal making activity among the regional companies, which lifted risk appetite. The UK benchmark inched 1.6% higher, buoyed by strength in Mining stocks. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark rose 2.7%, led by weakness in JPY. GCC GCC equity markets ended mixed during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark continued its upward trajectory on back of rising expectations of nation to be included in FTSE index. Yanbu Cement climbed 2.9%, after the company agreed to export 1mn tons of clinker and 0.5mn tons of cement from April-18. The Dubai benchmark declined 0.4%, weighed by weakness in Real Estate stocks. Emaar Properties and Deyaar Development declined 1.6% and 2.1% respectively as investors worried about the sluggish domestic property market outlook. Qatar The QE index declined 0.2% during yesterday’s trading session on account of selling pressure amongst foreign institutional investors. Qatar International Islamic Bank declined 8.0% after the stock went ex-dividend. Trades volumes in Banking & Financials, Industrials and Telecommunications sector together accounted for more than 81% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 44 exchanged hands of which, 21 declined, 20 advanced and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.3 4.9 51.1 DSM 20 13.5 1.3 5.0 41.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.5 1.7 3.2 1,154.9 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.3 5.1 37.2 UAE (DFM) 10.9 1.1 5.8 68.7 Kuwait (KSE) 15.4 1.1 5.7 27.6 Oman (MSM) 12.0 1.0 5.2 8.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.8 6.2 2.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Meera Cons. Goods Mesaieed Petrochem Vodafone Qatar Widam Food Co Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar Int’l Islamic Qatar General Ins. & Re Doha Insurance Co Gulf Warehousing Co Close Price 148.0 14.8 8.5 60.7 8.0 3.0 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 2.1 17.6 5.9 (2.9) (11.2) (11.7) (2.0) (11.3) (8.3) (41.3) 6.8 870.7 562.6 1.3 298.8 15.2 17.1 NA 10.1 33.3 50.2 52.1 44.4 13.5 39.6 (5.3) (4.6) (2.6) (0.5) (1.4) (9.5) (8.0) (5.5) (3.4) (3.3) (8.7) (4.6) (9.3) (3.6) (9.9) (26.5) (22.8) 13.9 (21.5) (24.5) 15.5 70.3 7.1 1.8 1.0 12.2 9.5 12.7 16.0 10.8 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,694.0 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 31/Dec 0.0 14/Jan 28/Jan 11/Feb Index Volume (mn) 25/Feb 11/Mar 25/Mar Index Value Closing Level 2,848.0 5,333.4 2,943.7 3,070.7 1,871.5 1,095.0 1,816.0 1D Change (%) (0.2) 0.3 0.1 (3.0) (0.5) 1.0 (0.5) Buy (%) 31.7 40.4 72.1 12.7 15.2 27.9 Sell (%) 32.8 41.5 74.3 8.7 17.0 25.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS  US tariffs are adding an uncertainty to the US economy which is otherwise prepared for strong growth according to Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President. (Source: CNBC)  US’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering all nine US census divisions, increased by 6.2% YoY to a reading of 205.1 points in January-18. (Source: Spice indices)  Eurozone’s bailout fund has approved the new loan disbursement of EUR 6.7bn (USD 8.3bn) to Greece as part of its current bailout program. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone’s broad monetary aggregate M3 supply decreased by 4.2% YoY, while the narrower aggregate M1 supply decreased by 8.4%YoY in February-18. (Source: ECB Europe)  Eurozone’s private loans increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.9% YoY while loans to non-financial corporations decreased by 3.1% YoY in February-18. (Source: ECB Europe)  Germany’s import price index decreased by 0.6% YoY and 0.6% MoM, while export price index increased by 0.5% YoY but remained unchanged over a month in February-18. (Source: Destatis)  China’s Vice Premier Liu stated that the central bank should keep its monetary policy prudent and neutral. He further added that the country’s banking and insurance regulators should adopt to their new roles and the anti-corruption efforts for the financial sector should continue. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  UAE Central Bank’s total assets increased by 9.3% YoY to AED 398.6bn (USD 108.5bn) untill February-18 led by 33.4% increase in the bank’s deposits. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Artificial Intelligence (AI) could help UAE's GDP grow by 35.0% till 2031, according to a report released by the Ministry of Economy. The ministry further added that there would be a 50.0% reduction in annual government spending as AI would elimate paper based transaction. (Source: Arabian Business)  UK Export Finance Team (UKEF), the British government’s export credit agency will set up an office in Dubai. The team comes with a capital for GBP 5.0bn for UAE and an additional GBP 4.0bn for projects in Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based Emirates NBD has received an approval to distribute 40.0% cash dividend amounting to AED 2.2bn for the FY-17. It also received approval for euro medium term note programme worth USD 12.5bn and the structured note programme by Emirates NBD Global Funding Limited worth USD 1.0bn. (Source: Mubasher)  Dubai’s leading mall operator Majid Al Futtaim has officially started construction of its first shopping mall in Abu Dhabi, with an investment of AED 340.0mn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  NCB Capital (DIFC) has launched NCB Capital Aviation Fund I with a commitment of USD 200mn to be raised through a private placement. The fund offers exposure to the global aviation leasing industry to its investors. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai based real estate developer Azizi Development has given a contract of building its new headquarters to Green Modelling Contracting. The project is worth AED 175.0mn, and the building, which is situated at Meydan Avenue, Dubai will house 2,000 employees across 520,000 sq.ft.. (Source: Arabian Business) Abu Dhabi located Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in Al Dhafra Region which was built in a joint venture with Korea Electric Power Corporation successfully completed the construction of the first of its four units. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has signed two key contracts with South Korea’s Samsung Engineering worth USD 3.5bn for introducing crude oil processing flexibility and recovering power and water at its Ruwais oil refinery. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The move by Saudi Arabian central Bank, to raise its Repo rate and Reverse repo rate is expected to be credit positive for it banking system, Moody’s rating agency said. The increase in rate is expected to prevent the capital outflows of local investors’ and depositors. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The CEO of Saudi Aramco said that, the company is likely to be ready for listing in the H2-18. He further added that the delays are mainly due to the complex processes involved, considering the size of the company. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman will be the official partner of the world’s leading travel trade show ITB Berlin 2020 which will showcase the country as a major travel destination. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Gulf Petrochemical Industries reported that it has exceeded its 2017 targets for production and has also set a new monthly production record for methanol at 62,300 MT. Total production during 2017, increased by 1.4% YoY to 1,604,725 metric tonnes. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based GFH financial group has received shareholder approval to distribute cash dividend of USD 85.0mn which will represent 8.72% of the nominal value of ordinary shares. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s trade balance surplus increased by 23.7% YoY but it decreased 10.7% MoM to QAR 14.1bn in February-18, driven by decrease in the total exports of goods by 11.6% MoM to QAR 22.4bn. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar’s healthcare expenditure is expected to increase to USD 6.6bn in 2022 from USD 5.8bn in 2017, according to Alpen Capital’s report. It also expects that the expenditure on outpatient and inpatient care to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% to USD 1.7bn and USD 3.1bn, respectively, in 2022. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total number of new factories that has begun its production increased by 17.0% since the blockade, the country’s HE the Minister of Energy and Industry stated. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Stock Exchange’s CEO, Rashid bin Ali Al Mansoori, stated that the exchanges is been prepared to list around 35 companies over the next five years. Out of the total, 3 companies are expected to be listed during the year 2018. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar International Cables Company has announced that the second phase of development and finalization of its factory expansion in Mesaieed Industrial City has been completed. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar International Islamic Bank has received approval to distribute 40.0% cash dividend for FY-17. The bank’s has also received approval to issue additional Tier1 sukuk non-convertible into an ordinary shares up to QAR 3.0bn. (Source: QE)  Qatar Islamic Insurance Company has received approval to distribute 35.0% cash dividend for FY-17. (Source: QE)  Fitch has downgraded Ooredoo’s credit rating by one notch to A- with stable outlook driven by change in the company’s methodology. Fitch also noted that the improvement in the company’s risk profile. (Source: QE)  Al Meera Consumer Goods Company has announced that it would be opening 9 more outlets during the year 2018, which includes the one outlet which is in its final stage of completion, the company’s Chairman stated. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2433 USD/QAR 3.6415 105.3400 EUR/QAR 4.5275 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4187 JPY/QAR 0.0346 USD/CHF 0.9468 GBP/QAR 5.1662 USD/CAD 1.2886 CHF/QAR 3.8461 AUD/USD 0.7679 CAD/QAR 2.8259 NZD/USD 0.7274 AUD/QAR 2.7963 USD/INR 64.4713 INR/QAR 0.0565 USD/TRY 3.9818 TRY/QAR 0.9145 USD/ZAR 11.6697 ZAR/QAR 0.3120 USD/BRL 3.3262 BRL/QAR 1.0948 FX Commentary The USD reversed its direction to end higher against the basket of major currencies yesterday with dollar index ending 0.4% higher at 89.379. Easing global trade war jitters supported the greenback. The EUR weakened against the greenback after data showed the 3rd straight decline in region’s economic confidence in March-18. The currency was also weighed after ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen expected lower Eurozone inflation despite robust economic growth. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart as oil prices declined. The JPY weakened against the USD after the global trade war concerns eased after China and US decided to conduct negotiation talks, which reduced the safe haven appeal of the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.74 1.88 2.29 2.67 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.27 2.33 2.46 2.66 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.89 2.01 2.26 2.65 2.0% EIBOR 1.43 1.69 1.87 2.31 2.79 BMIBOR 1.63 1.90 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.50 KIBOR 2.72% 2.27% 4.77% 3.44% 3.51% 3.59% 2.59% 2.71% 2.79% 3.04% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 27.6 (1.8) Turkey 199.9 UK 18.7 (7.7) Brazil 170.4 (31.3) Germany 11.7 (1.0) Egypt 267.5 (100.0) 2.55% 2.80% 2.75% 2.71% 2.0% 1.63% 2.39% 2.23% 2.07% 2.87% 2.64% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 9.0 18.8 (2.8) Abu Dhabi 60.9 (3.0) Italy 105.6 (35.0) Bahrain 276.0 22.6 Greece 371.4 (174.7) Dubai 103.3 (34.1) Russia 122.3 (24.2) Qatar 87.4 (11.9) Japan 24.8 (16.2) Saudi Arabia 83.8 (3.9) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:45 France Consumer Confidence 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 15:30 US GDP Price Index 15:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM 16:00 Russia CPI WoW 17:00 US 02:50 Japan Period Survey Mar 100 Prior 100 Mar-23rd - (1.10%) Q4 T 2.70% 2.50% Q4 T 2.30% 2.30% Feb P 0.50% 0.80% Mar-26th - 0.10% Pending Home Sales MoM Feb 2.00% (4.70%) Retail Trade YoY Feb 1.70% 1.50% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 6.0 (79.8) NA Knowledge Economic City The National Agriculture Dev NA NA NA (7.6) NA NA Buruj Cooperative Insurance 18.8 (61.6) (23.1) 18.0 (60.1) (25.1) United Wire Factories Co 167.3 6.3 28.7 10.1 (9.9) 40.4 Nama Chemicals Co NA NA NA 7.1 NA NA Amwal International Investment NA NA #VALUE! (0.0) NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 3.3 0.0 11.0 0.0 6.7 5.6 4.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.4 7.7 4.5 6.7 4.5 7.1 5.8 5.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.0 7.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 6.3 6.1 0.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.6 4.7 4.2 2.3 7.5 7.7 4.5 0.0 5.6 3.5 5.0 7.0 4.0 7.5 0.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.5 3.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.0 0.0 4.3 6.5 6.1 6.1 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 2.0 0.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.5 3.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.5 0.8 1.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.5 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 7.6 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 20.3 20.0 7.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 13.2 (H) (‫) م‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 9.7 9.5 9.4 25.3 10.1 5.1 27.0 15.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫) م‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 13.0 12.5 41.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.9 17.1 12.6 16.0 10.2 11.6 17.0 19.0 16.0 27.9 12.7 12.2 20.5 7.5 17.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 9.7 12.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.8 10.0 14.0 11.4 13.1 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.8 11.1 2.5 9.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 9.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.6 0.8 0.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.5 1.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 8.2 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 39.4 64.5 35.6 69.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 71.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.9 19.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 39.9 12.7 19.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 24.8 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 31.3 17.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.3 3.9 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 26.1 Stock Price (QR) 33.0 30.3 11.7 27.3 30.5 11.2 35.6 10.3 6.9 99.0 52.1 133.0 7.5 56.3 68.5 148.0 22.9 107.0 6.0 5.9 60.7 102.0 9.9 19.0 6.1 109.3 14.8 185.0 32.6 40.0 58.2 10.9 13.5 37.0 44.4 50.2 33.2 10.9 8.0 14.8 84.1 8.5 39.6 15.3 57.6 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4